Sports Picks & Predictions

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Utah.  Both teams come into this huge Pac-12 affair with one loss.  The Utes fell by 3, at home, to Stanford, while USC lost at Washington St.  Stanford is the only common opponent of these two teams, and the disparate results are illuminating.  Indeed, USC blew out the Cardinal in Week 2, 42-24, as a 3.5-point favorite (and outgained them by 181 yards), while Utah lost last week, 23-20, as a 3-point underdog (and was outgained by 2 yards).  The Trojans do come into this game off a win, however, as they bombed Oregon State, 38-10, but failed to cover the 33-point spread.  I look for USC to register another blowout this week (and also cover the number), as the Trojans fall into a 64-24 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off pointspread defeats.  Moreover, USC is 10-1 ATS at home as a favorite of 17 or less points off an ATS loss, while Utah is 0-8 ATS vs. Conference foes off back to back ATS defeats.  Finally, it's certainly true that Utah is 4-0-1 ATS this season.  But Utah's unblemished ATS record works to create line value for USC.  And, unfortunately for Utah, Pac-12 road underdogs of +4 (or more) points are a poor 28% ATS over the past 22 years if they're undefeated ATS (at Game 4 forward).  Lay the points with USC.  Pac-12 Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on Louisiana Monroe minus the points over Georgia State.  The Warhawks are on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak after blowing out Texas State, 45-27, last week, as a 5.5-point road favorite.  And they topped 50 points in their two games before that, with wins over Coastal Carolina (51-43) and La Lafayette (56-50).  I won't step in front of this freight train, as home teams off 3 SU/ATS wins have cashed 61% since 1980 if they scored over 150 points combined in their three previous games.  Take Louisiana Monroe.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Charlotte.  The 49ers are winless this season (0-6), while Western Kentucky is 3-2, including SU wins in its last two games.  But neither team has had much success in Vegas, as the 49ers are 2-4 ATS (covering their last two games), while the Hilltoppers are 0-5 ATS.  But I love Western Kentucky to get its first ATS win of the year, as home teams off a win have cashed 71.7% since 1980 vs. winless teams with an 0-6 (or worse) record, if our winless team is off a pointspread win.  Also, Western Kentucky is 16-3 ATS in Conference games off back to back wins, if the pointspread was less than 30 points.  Take the Hilltoppers.  Conference USA Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Auburn.  LSU has disappointed this season, with surprising losses to both Mississippi State and Troy State, while Auburn has played well, with its only defeat being a narrow 14-6 loss to defending Champ, Clemson.  But Auburn's three SEC victories (Missouri, Mississippi State, Ole Miss) were against teams that currently have a combined conference record of 1-7.  And it's hard to make a case for Auburn as a big road favorite, given that it's lost its last 8 games at LSU.  I really liked that LSU shook off its upset loss to Troy State with a 1-point road win last week at Florida (though LSU failed to cover the closing line of -1.5, and hasn't covered since its opening week shutout of BYU).  Coach Ed Orgeron didn't hide the fact that the coaching staff had meetings to fix problems on the staff, and one of the things that came out of the sessions was Orgeron's agreement to not micro-manage his coordinators.  Offensive coordinator Matt Canada was given freedom to run his full offense, and the team benefited last week.  There were also two players-only meetings, and the LSU team played noticeably with more toughness and energy vs. Florida than it did to start the season.  LSU falls into 52-25, 102-64 and 64-24 ATS Systems of mine that play on certain teams on ATS losing streaks.  Don't be surprised if there's an upset in Baton Rouge on Saturday.  Take the points.  SEC GAME OF THE WEEK.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Central Michigan.  The Chippewas leveled their record at 3-3 after upsetting Ohio, 26-23, as a 10-point road underdog last week, while Toledo moved its mark to 4-1 after getting by Eastern Michigan, at home, 20-15.  But it's hard for teams to pull off back to back upset wins, and I look for CMU to suffer a letdown on Saturday.  For technical support, consider that home dogs have covered just 34% since 1980 off an outright win as a double-digit road underdog, if they're matched up against .800 (or better) foes.  Even worse for CMU:  it's 0-9 ATS as an underdog of +6 or more points off an upset win.  Take Toledo.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Virginia, as UNC falls into a 67% ATS system of mine.  What we want to do is go against any team away from home off 3 ATS wins, if it's up against an opponent off 3 ATS losses, and the line is less than 11 points.  And that's the situation today, as Virginia is off 3 ATS wins, while UNC is off 3 ATS losses.  Take North Carolina.  NCAA Roadkill.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats plus the points over TCU.  Last week, the Wildcats fell by 6, in overtime, to Texas, as a 5-point underdog, and are now 3-2 on the season.  The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, are undefeated, at 5-0, and have been installed as a road favorite in Manhattan vs. K-State.  However, TCU's been a very weak favorite of late, including 8-23 ATS since 2011 when priced as a favorite of less than 14 points.  And Kansas State has been terrific as a home dog, with a 28-16 record since 1988, including 11-1 ATS off a SU/ATS loss.   Moreover, undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record, have cashed a paltry 31% since 1980 as road favorites of -2.5 (or more) points vs. .600 (or better) teams off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the points with Kansas State on Saturday.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over South Carolina.  In their last game, the Volunteers were blanked, 41-0, by Georgia, here at home.  The Gamecocks, meanwhile blew out Arkansas, 48-22, in Columbia last Saturday.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with South Carolina, given that they're 4-2 SU/ATS, while Tennessee is just 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS on the season.  But favorites off a 25-point (or worse) defeat have cashed a whopping 70.7% over the past 38 years vs. conference foes off a 25-point (or better) victory.  But that's not the best part.  If our favored team also has a .571 (or better) win percentage, then our 70.7% ATS system zooms to a nearly-perfect 14-1, 93% ATS.  Also, .500 (or better) teams have gone 71% ATS at home since 1980 off a home shutout loss (and 78% in Conference games)!  I look for the Vols to redeem themselves off their 41-0 home defeat.  Lay the points with Tennessee.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees and Houston Astros 'under' the total.  The first game of an LCS usually features an exceptional pitching match-up, and this one between the Astros and Yankees is no exception.  In his last two starts, LHP Dallas Keuchel has allowed just two earned runs on eight hits in 11 2/3 innings -- including his dominant performance against Boston in game two of the ALDS.  And those stats come in second place tonight when compared to his opponent.  RHP Masahiro Tanaka has been almost un-hittable in his last two starts, allowing no runs on six hits in 14 innings with an incredible 22 strikeouts and one walk.  Despite those strong numbers over his last two, Tanaka is looking for some redemption tonight as his only start vs. the 'Stros this season was a disaster (8 ER on 7 H in just 1 2/3 innings).  That was back in May, and the Japanese veteran has been pitching much better of late.  But Keuchel's career numbers against the Yanks are ridiculous and he's never had anything but quality starts against them (in seven career starts, including one in the 2015 post-season).  Finally, Keuchel's gone 'under' in 17 of 21 at home when priced between -125 and -175.  Take the 'under.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Chicago Cubs.  As if the Cubs needed any more reasons to believe in curses, they may be able to blame Mother Nature for one after this season.  These two teams were set to go on Tuesday night with the Cubs looking like clear favorites at home with Jake Arrieta scheduled to pitch vs. Tanner Roark.  But then the before they could get started, the skies opened up and the game was postponed until Wednesday.  While the Cubs stuck with Arrieta -- who had warmed up the night before and then had to sit -- the Nats switched to co-ace Stephen Strasburg, who was not available the night before.  The result was a dominant pitching performance and a 5-0 victory for the visitors.  Now the Nats come back home having to face a guy who completely shut them down in game one.  And while RH Kyle Hendricks is certainly capable of a repeat performance, I believe the Nats' hitters are not going to let this one get away.  Dusty Baker will hand the ball to his LH ace, Gio Gonzalez, who -- although not getting a W -- was the starter for the Nats victory in game two on Saturday.  Including that win, the Nats are 9-4 in Gonzalez's last 13 starts.  And Washington is 71-37 (+21 games on the moneyline) in nighttime games this season.  Of course, in a winner-takes-all game such as this, both teams will have all hands on deck, so it wouldn't be surprising to even see Max Scherzer come into the game, at some point.  Take DC.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians and New York Yankees to go 'under' the total.  There's no question Corey Kluber is an ace, but the Indians' RH pitched like anything but in game two of this series.  In that game last Friday, Kluber lasted just 2 2/3 innings while allowing six runs on seven hits.  The Tribe offense bailed out its ace and won that game in extra innings by a 9-8 final score.  The great thing about being the staff ace in the post-season is that, even in a three-out-of-five series, you will likely have a chance to redeem yourself if you had a bad outing in game one or two.  And so Kluber has that chance tonight in the final game of the ALDS.  And I think he will be stellar.  Indeed, prior to his poor outing last week, Kluber had not given up more than two earned runs in nine straight starts.  His previous four starts had gone 'under,' as had his previous six starts at home!  The Yanks will go with LH (and former Indian) CC Sabathia, who will appear in his 21st post-season game tonight.  Sabathia has gone 'under' in 19 of his last 24 starts.  Take the 'under.'  MLB Total of the Year.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over Chicago.  Stephen Strasburg has officially been named the starter for today's game.  Yesterday, he had declined to pitch because he was 'under the weather,' but apparently feels that he's recovered enough to take the ball from manager Dusty Baker.  That's good news for the Nats, as he dominated the Cubs in Game 1 of this series, by pitching 7 innings of 3-hit ball (with 10 strikeouts).  Even better:  in the 2nd half of the season, Strasburg's ERA was a microscopic 0.86 (the 2nd best mark ever for a pitcher with 10+ starts).  Jake Arrieta will still be on the bump for the Cubs, and he struggled in his one start vs. Washington this season (5 earned runs in 4 innings).  And that dovetails with his career marks of 5.48 ERA and 1.67 WHIP vs. the Nationals.  This year, the Cubs are 38-36  (minus 20 games on the moneyline) in daytime affairs, while Arrieta is a poor 2-6 when priced as a home favorite of -150 or less.  Meanwhile, Strasburg is 54-24 in his daytime starts, and 22-13 on the road when priced from +125 to -125.  Take the Nationals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Minnesota.  Last week, both the Vikings and Bears lost, as Minnesota was upset by Detroit, 14-7, while Chicago lost, 35-14, to Green Bay.  Chicago's now 1-3, so coach John Fox has decided to make a change at signal caller.  Thus, the Mitch Trubisky Era will start tonight at Soldier Field, and  I love Chicago in a home dog role, as it falls into a 136-61 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off losses by 20+ points.  Even worse for Minnesota:  .500 (or better) teams off an upset loss have cashed just 35.4% on Monday nights the past 38 seasons.  And the Bears are 25-7 ATS as a home dog (or PK) off a loss by 6+ points, if the Bears' win pct was less than .400.  Also, NFC North Division underdogs have cashed 64 of 107 division games off a loss.  Finally, the Vikings are a woeful 4-16 ATS at Chicago when not getting more than 3 points, including 0-9 ATS if the Vikings weren't off a SU/ATS win.  Take Chicago.  MNF Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Chicago Cubs.  If the Nats come back to win this series and then go on to their first-ever World Series, they will remember the eighth inning of game two as the one pivotal moment that got them there.  With one swing of his bat, not only did Bryce Harper tie the game on Saturday night, but he completely changed the momentum of this series, not to mention the mood of everyone in the dugout, the ballpark, and probably the entire city.  The fact that Ryan Zimmerman would give the Nats the lead with another homer three batters later seemed to be a foregone conclusion after what Harper did.  This afternoon the Nats finally get to send their ace, RH Max Scherzer, to the mound in this NLDS.  Delayed a few days by a mild hamstring strain he suffered in his last regular season start, DC has declared Scherzer ready to go -- likely much to the Cubs dismay.  Scherzer is that rare pitcher who can completely control a game from start to finish and even if the Nats put him on a pitch count, they now have a bullpen that can seal the deal.  They just need to make sure that the fire that was finally lit under the lineup in the eighth inning on Saturday is still burning.  The Nats are 3-1 in Scherzer's four starts against the Cubs since he joined the team.  Even better:  Scherzer is 35-14 as a road favorite (while the Nationals are 96-57).  Meanwhile, Jose Quintana is 6-14 as a home underdog. Take DC.  5* MLB Game of the Year.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians and New York Yankees 'under' the total.  It's probably a good thing that these two clubs had the day off after the 13-inning marathon they played on Friday.  The Yankees let a golden opportunity to tie this series at one game apiece slip through their fingers as they squandered a five-run lead as late as the sixth inning to lose, 9-8.  That type of loss has to be at least a little demoralizing, but Yankee Stadium will still be plenty loud tonight as RHP Masahiro Tanaka takes the hill for only his second career post-season start.  The Yankees probably set up this rotation on purpose so that Tanaka would get the first home game because he relished pitching at Yankee Stadium this season.  In 15 starts here, Tanaka went 9-5 with a 3.22 ERA while in the same number elsewhere, he logged a 4-7 record and had an ERA that was more than double at 6.48.  The Indians' RH Carlos Carrasco didn't pitch in the Bronx this season, but he has shown a strong affection for this place throughout his career.  In four starts at Yankee Stadium, Carrasco - who won 18 games this season -- has gone 3-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.  The under is 12-4 in Cleveland's last 16 playoff games and 7-2 in NY's last nine playoff games at home.  Take the 'under.'  AL Total of the Week.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  The Rams have been a surprising offensive team this season, as they're averaging 35.5 points per game (after averaging just 14 ppg last season).  But the four teams that Los Angeles has played this year are giving up, on average, 26 points per game.  Seattle, on the other hand, will be the best defense the Rams have faced yet, as it's giving up just 19.25 ppg.  Over the previous seven seasons, 11 of the 14 meetings between these teams have gone 'under' the total.  And the 'under' also falls into a super 86-53 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Baltimore/Oakland game, as it falls into a great Totals system of mine which has cashed 73.3% since 1980.  Additionally, Oakland has gone 'over' the total 21-6-2 in its last 29 home games, including 6-0 its last six, and also a perfect 10-0-2 'over' when priced from 40.5 to 44 points.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Miami/Tennessee game, as it falls into 59-27, 108-69 and 152-102 Totals systems of mine.  It's true that Miami's offense struggled last week, as it was shutout, 20-0, by New Orleans, and is averaging just 8.3 ppg.  But Miami should find the sledding easier against Tennessee.  After all, the Titans gave up more points (57) last week than any other team has given up in almost 5 years!  And that was against a Texans team which had averaged just 17.6 ppg coming into the game.  So, when viewed in that context, it was the most points any team had given up in 21 years vs. a team that averaged less than 18 ppg!  And, for additional technical support, consider that NFL teams (like Miami) have gone 'over' the total 70.2% since 1980 if they don't average more than 10 ppg on offense, and have gone 'under' the total in their 3 previous games.  Finally, seven of Miami's last eight home games, and nine of Tennessee's last 12 road games have sailed 'over' the total.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Last week, the Bills upset the previously undefeated Atlanta Falcons, 23-17, as an 8 point underdog.  That moved the Bills' record to 3-1 on the season.  But off that upset win, I look for a letdown in Cincy on Sunday.  Indeed, since 1981, .680 (or better) teams off an upset win on the road as an 8-point (or greater) underdog have cashed an atrocious 15% of the time on the road.  That doesn't bode well for the Bills on Sunday.  And neither does the fact that Buffalo is 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or less off a win as a dog of more than 3 points.  Finally, Cincy is 27-10 ATS when priced between +3 and -9.5 at home vs. a foe off an upset win, including 7-0 ATS if such foe was a dog of more than 6 points in its previous game.  Take the Bengals.  NFL Roadkill Play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the New York Giants.  It's absolutely correct that the Chargers have burned money this season, as they're 0-4 straight-up, and 0-3-1 ATS.  But their three ATS losses came at home.  However, it's on the road where the Chargers have made friends in Vegas, as they're 44-22-5 ATS their last 71 when not laying 2+ points, including 29-6-4 ATS if the Chargers were not off a SU/ATS win!  Take the Chargers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the New York Jets.  Last week, we played on the Jets as a home underdog vs. Jacksonville, and were rewarded with a 23-20 overtime victory.  That also was New York’s 2nd straight upset win as a home underdog.  Unfortunately, now the Jets go back on the road where they are 0-2 straight-up and against-the-spread this season.  And while it’s true that the Browns were blown out at home by 24 points last week, and have yet to win a game this season, consider that teams off back to back losses are an awesome 77-49 ATS vs. foes off back to back upset wins, including 30-12 ATS at home vs. non-division foes.  Moreover, home teams have also cashed 71% since 1980 off a home loss by 24 or more points when matched up against an opponent off back to back wins.  Take Cleveland.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles, as Arizona falls into a 67% ATS system of mine, which plays on certain road underdogs that didn't cover the pointspread in their previous game.  It's true that Philly is 3-1 on the season, but Arizona is a sensational 44-26 ATS vs. .750 (or better) teams, including 40-22 ATS as an underdog.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks over the Washington State Cougars.  Mike Leach's Cougars upset previously undefeated Southern Cal last week, 30-27, as a 4.5-point underdog.  Not surprisingly, teams that pull off such upsets generally have letdowns in their next game, and especially when going into revenge.  Indeed, since 1980, teams off home upset wins over previously undefeated opponents have covered just 27.4% on the road when matched up against revenge-minded foes, if priced between -17 and +3.5 points!  Last year, Washington State upset Oregon, 51-33, in Pullman, so the Ducks will be looking to avenge that upset defeat here, at Autzen Stadium, on Saturday.  The Ducks are also a super 23-7 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. conference foes, and not laying more than 20 points, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were favored by more than 2 points in that upset defeat the previous season.  Take Oregon.  NCAA Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Fresno St.  The Spartans come into this home game off 4 straight losses (both SU and ATS), and are now 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the season.  They've also failed to cover the spread by 14.58 ppg this season.  But the good news for San Jose is that it's back home on Saturday, where it's gone 2-1 ATS this season.  Also, home dogs off 4 straight ATS losses, that have an average pointspread differential of -14 ppg (or worse), are an awesome 72% ATS the past 33 years vs. .500 (or worse) opponents.  Take the points with San Jose.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Alabama has certainly impressed over the past two weeks, with back to back blowout wins over Vanderbilt (59-0), as a 19-point favorite, and Ole Miss (66-3), as a 29-point favorite.  But we will play against the Tide on Saturday, as undefeated road favorites of -11 (or more) points, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are a dreadful 0-19 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road favorite's average margin of victory for the season was 28.8 ppg (or better).  Take the Aggies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles + the points over Texas San Antonio.  After winning (and covering) each of their first three games this season, the Golden Eagles were upset at home, 43-28, by North Texas last week.  Meanwhile, the Roadrunners blew out Texas St., 44-14, as a 13.5 point favorite.  We'll take the points with Southern Miss, as winning teams have cashed 68.1% in regular season conference games over the past 33 years off a conference loss in which they failed to cover by 16+ points, if they're now double-digit dogs against a foe off a win, in which that foe covered the spread by 16+ points.  Take Southern Miss.

At 5:35 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Chicago Cubs.  Yogi Berra was never been a member of a Washington baseball team, but right now his phrase "It's deja vu all over again" seems very appropriate for the Nationals.  After finishing the regular season with almost 100 wins and getting home field in the NLDS, the Nats dropped game one last night at home to the Cubs.  But it's not the fact that they lost that is shocking, but rather the way they lost.  The normally potent DC offense managed a total of just two hits over nine innings while getting shutout, 3-0.  Zimmerman, Harper, Murphy and Co. simply couldn't solve the 89 MPH fastball and deceiving change-up of Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks.  Tonight the lefties will take their turn as the Nats Gio Gonzalez and the Cubs Jon Lester go to the mound in a 'must-win' game for the home team.  After a near-Cy Young campaign in 2016, Lester took a big step backwards this season, winning 13 games while posting an ERA almost two runs higher than last season (4.33).  Gonzalez had the second-best season of his veteran career, winning 15 games while posting a 2.96 ERA in 32 starts.  Gonzalez owns a career 3.06 ERA in 10 starts vs. Chicago.  The Nats are 16-5 in Gonzalez's last 21 home starts vs. teams with a winning record.  Take DC.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Colorado State.  Utah State comes into this game off back to back impressive wins.  The Aggies routed San Jose 61-10 two weeks ago, and then blew out BYU 40-24 last Friday.  I love playing on home underdogs that can score, and the Aggies certainly fit the bill as they're averaging 34.4 ppg through their first five games.  And, since 1980, home dogs of more than 7 points that average 32+ ppg after at least 5 games, and are off momentum-building back to back wins, have cashed 72% (including 13-1 ATS the past 4 seasons).  Take the Aggies. Mountain West Dog of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Maryland.  Last week, the Buckeyes shut out Rutgers, in Piscataway, 56-0.  I won't step in front of Urban Meyer's men, here, at home, as College Football teams off a 33-point (or better) shutout road win are 38-15 ATS in the regular season vs. conference foes.  Take Ohio State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Purdue.  The Gophers lost for the first time this season last week when they fell, 31-24, at home to Maryland, as a 13.5-point favorite.  But I look for Minny to bounce back on Saturday, as .600 (or better) single-digit road underdogs have cashed 71.4% in conference games since 1980, if they lost as a double-digit home favorite the week before.  Moreover, Purdue's covered just 31% over the past 38 years vs. winning Big 10 Conference foes off an upset loss.  Take the points with Minnesota.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes + the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies covered the pointspread for the 4th straight time last week when they fell by just six points to San Diego State (as a 9.5-point underdog).  Unfortunately for Northern Illinois, its 4-0 ATS record sets it up in a very poor situation this weekend.  Since 1980, teams off a pointspread win in Game 4, with an undefeated ATS record thru their first 4 games, are an awful 103-147 (41% ATS) in Conference games at Game 5 of the season.  I look for Kent State to sneak in under this inflated number.  Take the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs are 4-0 on the season following their upset win two weeks ago in Stillwater, where they shocked Oklahoma State, 44-31, as a 9.5-point underdog.  This week, they'll have another high-octane offense with which to contend, as WVU has scored 56, 59 and 56 points in its last three games (all wins by 22+ points).  We'll grab the points with the Mountaineers, as teams that scored 169+ points in their three previous games are an awesome 70.1% ATS in the regular season since 1998.  Take WVU.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Tulsa.  The Green Wave haven't had many winning seasons over the years (just 1 over the past 14 seasons, in fact), but are 2-2 thus far.  In contrast, Tulsa's won 9 of its past 14 seasons, but is off to a 1-4 start.  So, even though Tulane has not been favored in any of the 12 meetings over the past 12 seasons, and has lost 11 of those 12 games, it has been installed as the favorite this year.  One factor in Tulane's favor is that it will be playing with rest, as it had last week off following its win two weeks ago vs. Army.  And Tulane falls into a super 99-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested, revenge-minded teams not favored by more than a touchdown.  Also, the Green Wave are a fantastic 21-9 ATS as a home favorite, priced from -3 to -7 points.  Lay it.  NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.