Sports Picks & Predictions

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Houston.  The Suns will finish up their 5-game road trip tonight, and look to bounce back off losses in their last two games -- both as road favorites.  The good news for Phoenix is that it's 42-13-1 ATS off an upset road loss, including 11-2 ATS if they also lost two games back.  And Houston is 0-8 ATS its last eight as home dogs of +4 (or more) points vs. winning opposition.  Take Phoenix.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs minus the points over North Carolina Asheville.  These two teams met here in Boiling Springs yesterday, and NC-Asheville came away with a 79-75 victory as a 1-point road favorite.  We'll take the home team to avenge that home loss, as NCAA teams have gone 78-56 ATS in the 2nd of back to back meetings between the teams, if they lost at home in the first meeting, and were not an underdog of more than 1 point in that first game.  Even better:  Gardner-Webb has cashed 17 of 23 when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, while Asheville has covered just 9 of 29 off an ATS win.  Take Gardner-Webb.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Mercer Bears minus the points over The Citadel.  After an 8-0 start, the Bulldogs have lost their last three games (vs Furman, at VMI and at NC Greensboro).  We played against The Citadel in two of those, and will play against them here, at home, this afternoon.  Indeed, The Citadel is a wallet-breaking 0-6 ATS its last six, and 25-48 ATS its last 73 at home off 3+ losses.  And it's 0-16-1 ATS its last 17 (and 14-37-1 its last 52) at home off a double-digit road loss.  Lay the points with Mercer.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Toledo.  The Rockets lost SU/ATS in their last game, as they fell 95-94 to Akron.  And that ended an 8-game win streak (and 7-game ATS win streak).  Toledo is a poor 1-8 ATS at home off a loss, while the Chips are 28-16 ATS their last 44 MAC Conference games.  Central Michigan also falls into a 424-244 ATS system of mine.  Take CMU + the points.  Good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over UNLV.  We were 7-1 in basketball over the weekend.  Our one losing selection was on these Lobos against this same UNLV team when they played on Saturday here, at Thomas & Mack Center.  The Rebels blew out the Lobos by 23 in that game but, at the risk of being stubborn, we'll come right back with New Mexico today.  Notwithstanding its SU/ATS win on Saturday, UNLV is still a wallet-breaking 2-11 ATS its last 13, and 39-71-3 ATS its last 113 at home vs. conference foes, if the Rebels were favored by more than 8 points.  And if the Rebels were priced from -10 to -14.5 points vs. .500 (or worse) conference foes, then they've gone 2-19 ATS.  Additionally, so far in 2021, NCAA road underdogs off exactly one loss, that lost earlier in the season to their opponent, and failed to cover in that previous defeat by more than 12 points, have gone 14-5 ATS, including 7-0 ATS when priced from +3 to +17 points.  Finally, home favorites of 12+ points, off back to back wins, have covered just 59 of 167 vs. Mountain West foes.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies.  When the Suns last took the court seven days ago, they suffered an upset road loss at the hands of the Washington Wizards, 128-107.  That lowered Phoenix's record to 7-4 this season (4-3 road; 3-1 home), an impressive mark which includes road wins at Utah, Denver and Indiana.  Phoenix has had the last week off due to the coronavirus protocols, so they'll be very well-rested when they take on the Grizzlies.  Memphis took advantage of a Joel Embiid-less 76ers squad on Saturday to win its fourth straight game, 106-104.  But the Grizz are still just 2-5 SU and 2-4-1 ATS at home this season.  We'll lay the points with Phoenix, as .625 (or better) road favorites have covered 59% since 1991 if they played with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent.  Even better:  the Suns are 10-0 ATS their last 10, and 42-12 ATS their last 54 off an upset road defeat.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Indiana.  Both of these teams come into tonight's game on win streaks.  Indiana has won and covered two straight, while the Clippers have won each of their last three games.  But the key factor for our play tonight is that Indiana won its last two games as an underdog.  And the Pacers are a horrid 0-19 ATS off back to back covers as an underdog, if they've owned a win percentage greater than .575, and also won their previous game straight-up.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are 91-63 ATS when favored, including 15-2 ATS vs. foes off an upset road win.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over New Orleans.  This is a big revenge game for Tom Brady & Co., as they were blown out, 38-3, at home in the previous meeting.  We played on New Orleans in that game, but will take Tampa Bay this evening.  For technical support, consider that revenge-minded teams that lost by 30+ points earlier in the season, have gone 6-0 ATS as single-digit underdogs.  Even better:  Tom Brady's a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season by 13+ points, and 11-1 SU/ATS his last 12 games vs. division rivals when playing with revenge (regardless of the margin of defeat).  And, finally, NFC South division teams have gone 10-0 ATS since 2003 when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season.  Take Tampa Bay + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Cleveland.  Last week, the Browns won their biggest game in decades when they went into Pittsburgh, and upset their rivals, 48-37, as a 5-point underdog.  But off that huge win, we'll fade the Browns this afternoon.  In general, I prefer to go against teams off big offensive playoff wins.  And especially when such teams don't have great defenses to match their high-octane offenses.  And Cleveland does not.  The Browns are scoring 26.82 ppg this season, but also giving up the exact amount, on defense.  In contrast, Kansas City only gives up 22.62 ppg.  And to put the Browns' defense into context, consider that there have been just 6 NFL teams of 480 that made the playoffs over the last 41 seasons to have given up more than 26 points per game!  We'll go against Cleveland, as NFL teams that scored more than 38 points in their previous game are 0-11 ATS on the road if they didn't have a better defense than their opponent.  That doesn't bode well for Cleveland at Arrowhead this afternoon.   Nor does the fact that teams that covered the spread by more than 13 points the previous week have cashed just 16% in the Playoffs vs. defending Super Bowl champions.  And, finally, Andy Reid-coached teams have gone 67% ATS, including 6-2, 75% ATS in the Playoffs, when they were off a bye week, which gave Reid an extra week to prepare.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over Boston.  In this Atlantic Division match-up, we'll take Tom Thibodeau's Knicks as a road underdog.  After winning 5 of 6 games -- both SU and ATS -- the Knicks have hit the skids, with five straight losses (also both SU and ATS).  But in none of those five games were the Knicks installed as an underdog of 6+ points (as they are this afternoon).  And New York is 4-1 ATS their last five when getting 6+ points.  Moreover, the Knicks fall into one of my favorite NBA systems today.  it's cashed 80.9% over the last 31 years, and what we want to do is play on .375 (or better) rested road teams in division games, if they're an underdog of +5 (or more) points, and off five SU/ATS losses.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Buffalo/Baltimore game.  Last week, the Ravens were favored by 3.5 points against Tennessee, and won a low-scoring game, 20-13.  And that was the eighth straight Playoff game (and 10th of the last 11) where the Ravens went 'UNDER' the total as a favorite.  But when the Ravens have been installed as an underdog (as they are, here), then it's been a completely different story, as they've gone OVER in those games 6-3-1.  Likewise, the Bills have gone OVER 29-14-1 as a favorite (compared to 18-8 'under' as an underdog).  We'll take the OVER on Saturday night, as each of these teams average more than 28 points per game on offense.  And in match-ups between two teams that average 28+ points, NFL games have gone 'over' the total 61% of the time since 1985.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wright State Raiders minus the points over Cleveland State.  These two teams met yesterday here, in Dayton, and the Raiders were upset by the Vikings, 66-64, as a 9.5-point favorite.  We'll play on the Raiders to bounce back this evening, as they're 5-0 ATS at home when playing with revenge from an upset home loss, and they're 17-6 ATS off an upset loss when playing a foe off back to back wins.  Finally, the Raiders fall into a 320-188 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset defeats.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos plus the points over UNLV.  For years, the UNLV Rebels have been one of the worst-performing point spread teams at home.  And that's much to the chagrin of their fans who have lost a lot of money betting on them at the local casinos.  Today, the Rebels have been installed as a double-digit favorite, notwithstanding the fact they've yet to win a Mountain West Conference game.  We'll take New Mexico + the points, as UNLV is a dismal 1-11 ATS their last 12, and 38-71-3 ATS their last 112 at home vs. conference foes, if the Rebels were favored by more than 8 points.  And if the Rebels were priced from -10 to -14.5 points vs. .500 (or worse) conference foes, then they've gone 1-19 ATS.  Take New Mexico plus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Houston.  The Spurs blew a big 4th quarter lead vs. the Rockets on Thursday, and lost 109-105.  After the game, coach Gregg Popovich questioned his players' effort.  Certainly, his team heard his message, and will come out focused this evening.  And San Antonio also generally does well in the regular season when playing with revenge, including 26-8 ATS their last 34 at home in this role (and 3-0 ATS vs. division rivals if the Spurs lost at home in the previous meeting).  Take San Antonio to blow out Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies + the points over UCLA.  The Bruins are undefeated in Pac-12 play with a 6-0 record (and 5-1 ATS), while Washington is bringing up the rear at 0-7 SU (and 1-6 ATS).  We'll grab the points as NCAA teams have cashed 66.4% away from home , if they were off 4 SU/ATS losses, and were matched up against a .733 (or better) conference foe off at ATS win.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Green Bay/Los Angeles Rams game, as it falls into a 52-24 Totals system of mine.  This game has all the earmarks of a high-scoring game.  The Packers are averaging 31.8 ppg, and will be playing at home following a Bye week last weekend.  And high-octane NFL offenses that average more than 31 ppg have gone 'over' the total 23-11-1 since 1985 when playing at home in the Playoffs.  Moreover, in his career, Aaron Rodgers has gone 'over' the total 32-14 when the Packers were favored from -4.5 to -7 points, including 14-2 'over' their last 16.  And, with Rodgers at the helm, Green Bay has gone 'over' the total in 12 of 18 playoff games.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Los Angeles.  We played on the Rams as our #1 Wild Card side selection last week, and were rewarded with an upset victory over division rival, Seattle.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Sean McVay's men at Lambeau Field on Saturday.  Indeed, NFL teams off upset Playoff wins are a dreadful 2-23 straight-up, and 5-20 ATS in the quarterfinals when priced from +4 to +8 points.  Even better:  the Packers are 11-6-1 ATS in the Playoffs with Aaron Rodgers under center, including a perfect 4-0-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win.  And they're also an exceptional 61-35-4 ATS at Lambeau with Rodgers (whether regular season or post-season), including 12-1 ATS their last 13 vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with Green Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte 49ers + the points over UAB.  Yesterday, the Blazers were embarrassed at home, 61-37, by Alabama-Birmingham.  And Charlotte was actually favored in that game by 2 points.  The oddsmakers have made an adjustment for this afternoon's game, so Charlotte is now the home underdog.  And we will happily take the points with the 49ers in the rematch, as home teams off 8-point upset home losses have cashed 62.2% over the last 31 years when playing with revenge against a foe off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  the 49ers are 10-1 ATS their last 11 as a home underdog.  And they're 6-0-2 ATS their last eight off an upset defeat.  Take the 49ers + the points to bounce back this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the VMI Keydets minus the points over The Citadel.  The Bulldogs are 7-1 SU and 5-0 ATS this season, while VMI is 5-6, but a more-than-respectable 6-3 ATS.  We'll go against The Citadel this afternoon, as .875 (or better) underdogs of more than 4 points (at Game 9 forward) have cashed just 65 of 165 games away from home, if they were on a 3-game (or better) ATS win streak.  Additionally, VMI is 21-10 ATS vs. .770 (or better) opponents.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Colgate Raiders minus the points over Holy Cross.  We played on Holy Cross last Sunday as a double-digit underdog at Army, and were rewarded with an outright win by the Crusaders.  But we will go against them this afternoon, as they're 0-11 ATS off a win.  Even better:  the Raiders are off a momentum-building 89-45 road win over Boston U., as a 5-point favorite.  And NCAA teams that covered the spread by more than 38 points on the road in their previous game have gone 71% ATS since 1990.  Lay the points with Colgate.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Titans minus the points over Wisconsin-Green Bay.  The Titans have gotten off to a miserable 0-4 start in Horizon League play, while Green Bay is 3-5 after winning its last three league games.  We'll lay the points with Detroit tonight, as home favorites have cashed 59% since 1990 vs. conference foes off back to back wins, if our home team was 0-4 (or worse) in conference play.  Take Detroit.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars minus the points over Appalachian State.  On the surface, these two teams are going in opposite directions.  The Jaguars are on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, while the Mountaineers have won and covered 3 straight.  But NCAA favorites on 3-game SU/ATS losing streaks have covered 60% over the last 31 years vs. foes off 3-game SU/ATS winning streaks, including 68.4% if our favorite was off a double-digit loss in its previous game.  With the Jaguars in off an 83-69 loss at Coastal Carolina, our 68.4% tightener is satisfied.  Take South Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte 49ers over UAB.  This is the front-end of a 2-game series played here in Charlotte, and we'll take the homestanding 49ers.  Charlotte is 5-5 this season after dropping its last game, 75-72, to Belmont Abbey, while UAB is 9-1.  But the Blazers have lost each of their last three games ATS, which is not a positive signal for this game tonight.  Inded, dating back to 1992, .895 (or better) College teams (at Game 8 forward) off back to back ATS defeats, have covered just 32 percent away from home against an opponent which wasn't a winning team, including 20% ATS if they weren't favored by 8+ points.  Take Charlotte.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Charleston Southern Buccaneers + the points over NC Asheville.  The coronavirus has greatly impacted the schedules this college basketball season.  Many leagues have gone to a format of two teams playing back to back games at a single venue.  The Big South Conference is one of those.  These two teams played here, in Asheville, yesterday, and the Bulldogs blew out the Buccaneers, 92-54.  We'll take the underdog in this rematch, as Charleston Southern falls into 99-51, 422-236 and 153-101 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off blowout losses.  Additionally, this season, in these back to back games, teams that failed to cover the spread by more than 20 points have covered 63%, while teams off straight-up losses by 25+ points have covered 67%.  Take the Buccaneers + the points.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies + the points over the Southern Cal Trojans.  It's true that these two teams are going in opposite directions.  Washington has lost its last six games (including 0-5 ATS its last 5), while USC is on a 4-game win streak.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the homestanding Trjoans, and lay the points.  But consider that Washington is a solid 27-12 ATS off 3+ losses when playing an opponent off back to back wins.  And road underdogs of +12 (or more) points, off 4 SU/ATS losses, have gone 123-59 ATS vs. .760 (or better) conference foes.  Take the Huskies + the large number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Purdue. This Hoosier State rivalry has been one-sided of late, with the Boilermakers taking each of the last seven meetings.  But this game sets up well for an Indiana victory.  The Boilermakers pulled a big upset in their last game when they went into East Lansing, and defeated Michigan State, 55-54, as a 6-point underdog.  Unfortunately, they're an awful 3-11 ATS off an upset win.  And they're also a wallet-breaking 31-59-6 ATS as single-digit road underdogs.  Meanwhile, Indiana is a terrific 65-38-2 ATS at home when not favored by more than 4 points, while Purdue has covered just 3 of 13 vs. double-revenge-minded foes it defeated twice the previous season.  Take Indiana.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Furman Paladins minus the points over The Citadel.  The Bulldogs come into this game with a spotless 8-0 record (and a 4-0 ATS record).  But the fact that they've had five non-lined games reveals the schedule has been filled with non-Division I foes.  So, half of The Citadel's wins have come against the likes of Piedmont, Toccoa Falls, Columbia International, and Carver Bible, while the other half were versus NC A&T, Longwood, Presbyterian and UT-Chattanooga.  Furman, on the other hand, is 8-3, but its three losses were road games against Cincinnati, Alabama and Winthrop.  We'll go against the undefeated Bulldogs, as .850 (or better) double-digit home underdogs have covered just 31% over the past 25 seasons.  Moreover, the pace of the game will play into the hands of the Paladins.  One thing is certain about this afternoon's game:  it will be high-scoring.  Unlike, say, the "Runnin' Bulldogs" of Gardner-Webb, whose games "only" average 146 points, the Bulldogs of The Citadel REALLY LOVE to run, as their games, on average, total 162.50, while Furman's games average 153.54.  Historically, Furman's been great in this point spread role, as the Paladins are a powerful 26-5 ATS as road favorites of -6+ points.  Lay the big number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors are now 6-4 after back to back upset wins over the Clippers and Raptors.  But favorites are a poor 37% ATS at home off back to back upset wins, if they won at home in their previous game, and were now matched up against a .500 (or better) foe.  Take the Pacers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Alabama.  After an uncharacteristic 1-6 start to the 2020-21 season, the Wildcats have righted themselves in SEC Conference play with 3 straight wins to start the SEC schedule.  And Saturday's win in Gainesville was their most impressive, as they upset Florida, 76-58, as a 5.5-point road underdog.  The Wildcats are back home tonight to take on an Alabama team which has gotten off to a 4-0 SEC start.  We'll take the home team, as Kentucky is a reliable 67-31-2 ATS at home when not favored by more than 14 points, if its opponent was off back to back wins!  Meanwhile, Alabama falls into a negative 34% ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off 5+ wins.  And the Crimson Tide are a poor 19-40 ATS off 5+ wins.  Take Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Oklahoma City.  San Antone was blown out by Minnesota in the 2nd of a back-to-back series in Minneapolis.  But off that blowout loss, we'll take Gregg Popovich's crew tonight, as they're 65-42 ATS as a road favorite off a SU loss where they failed to cover by double-digits.  Meanwhile, the Thunder return home off a 5-game road trip in which they went 4-1 (including 3 upset wins over the last week).  Unfortunately for the Thunder, underdogs off 3 upset road wins have covered just 40% over the past 31 years.  Take San Antonio minus the points.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Los Angeles.  The Rockets lost round 1 in this 2-game series vs. the champs, but we'll take them to win round 2 tonight.  On Sunday, the Lakers blew out Houston here at the Toyota Center, 120-102.  But Houston has covered 64% since 1990 as a home dog off a home loss, if their foe was off back to back wins.  And the Lakers have covered just 29 of 94 regular season games vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss, if that foe was playing with revenge from a home loss earlier in the season to the Lakers.  Take Houston in this home underdog role.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Oh, how the mighty have fallen.  The 2019 Champion Raptors are now 2-7 SU/ATS after losing to the 2018 Champion Warriors last night, 106-105.  But at least the Warriors are a respectable 6-4 SU/5-5 ATS.  The Raptors will now travel up to Portland to take on a Trail Blazers team which won and covered two straight games for the first time all season, with SU/ATS wins over the T-Wolves and Kings.  But it's worth noting that the point spread for tonight's game is the biggest underdog spread for Toronto all season.  And the Raptors are 12-4 ATS over the last 4 regular seasons when getting 5+ points in a game.  Meanwhile, Portland has covered just 6 of 21 off back to back ATS wins.  And it also falls into a negative 35-91 ATS system of mine which plays against certain teams off back to back SU/ATS wins vs. foes off upset losses.  Grab the points with Nick Nurse's men tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Monday, January 11, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Alabama.  This selection certainly won't come as a surprise to anyone who joined us for our huge play on the Buckeyes + over Clemson.  In my discussion of that game, I highlighted that Ohio State was 13-0 ATS its last 13 as underdogs of more than 3 points.  Well, after its 49-28 blowout of Clemson, that mark is now 14-0 ATS its last 14.  Ohio State just destroyed Trevor Lawrence & Co., so why not Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith, et al?  It's true that Alabama didn't play its best game vs. Notre Dame.  The Tide went up 28-7 on a Jones-to-Smith TD pass, with 4:58 left in the 3rd quarter, but never scored another TD.  They did tack on a 4th quarter field goal, but a late touchdown by Notre Dame rewarded Irish bettors.  I was one of those bettors, as I took Notre Dame + the large number.  And we'll grab the points here, as well.  For technical support, consider that .928 (or better) teams are 0-9 ATS in the post-season as a favorite of less than 13 points vs. foes off a momentum-building upset win.  Additionally, I love playing on bowl underdogs with good defenses, and strong rushing attacks.  This season, Ohio State's offensive YPR is 6.0, while Bama's is 5.1, and each gives up 3.2 YPR on defense.  The Buckeyes' relative Total YPR is +0.927.  With this as a backdrop, consider that Bowl underdogs of more than 4 points, with a powerful rushing attack that garners 6+ yards per rush, have cashed 89% in the bowls since 1993, while single-digit bowl underdogs have gone 123-83-3 ATS if their defense gave up 22 or less ppg, and their relative YPR (yards per rush) was better than their opponent's.  Take Ohio State + the points in the Championship game on Monday, Jan. 11.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Los Angeles.  We played on the Rockets in their previous game, and were rewarded with a 42-point blowout win over Orlando -- Houston's best game of this young season.  Going into Friday's contest, the Rockets were 2-4 SU/ATS, and had yet to win by double-digits.  The Lakers also haven't been making too many friends "in Vegas," as they've only covered the spread in four of their 10 games, including 0-3 ATS their last three.  These two teams met in last year's post-season tournament, and the Lakers won the 7-game series, 4-games-to-1 after the Rockets took the opening game.  But Houston won 2 of last year's 3 regular season games, and I look for it to upset Los Angeles this evening, as well, as it falls into several of my very best post-season revenge systems.  Even better:  this will be Los Angeles' 3rd game in four nights, and LeBron James' teams have covered just 43% in his career when playing their 3rd game in four nights, if favored vs. winning opponents, while NBA teams have covered just 30 of their last 80 when playing their 3rd game in four nights, if they won the previous two games.  Finally, the Rockets are a solid 26-14 ATS as rested home underdogs if they lost the previous meeting to their opponent.  Grab the points with the home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Holy Cross Crusaders + the points over Army.  These two Patriot League rivals met yesterday in Worcester, Mass. and the Black Knights got the better of Holy Cross, with a 15-point road win, 83-68, as a 5.5-point favorite.  That lowered Holy Cross' season point spread record to 2-1 ATS.  But unlike many conferences this season, which are having their teams play two straight games against an opponent in the same location, the Patriot League has scheduled its back to back meetings in the traditional manner, with one home, and one away game.  So, this game will be played at Army.  We'll take the Crusaders in this afternoon's rematch, as they've covered 34 of 59 road games, and also fall into an 87-41 ATS system of mine which plays on certain road underdogs off SU/ATS losses.  Even better:  since 1991, teams off a loss in the first meeting of a "back-to-back" have covered the spread in the 2nd meeting 59% of the time, if they owned a winning ATS record on the season, including 10-1 ATS in 2021 if they failed to cover the spread in the first meeting by more than 8 points.  Take Holy Cross.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Baltimore/Tennessee game.  The Titans have gone 12-3-1 'over' the total this season, including 3-0 'over' their last three, and 7-1 'over' their last eight.  The only game the Titans have played in the season's 2nd half which didn't go 'over' the total was their 31-10 victory over the offensively-challenged Jaguars (who averaged just 19.1 ppg this year).  But Tennessee will be playing the Ravens this Sunday afternoon.  And John Harbaugh's men have scored 29.25 ppg, including 37.2 ppg over their last five games.  For technical support, consider that, over the last 41 seasons, NFL teams that played 80+ percent of their games 'over' the total, have gone 'over' in their Playoff game 71% of the time.  Even better:  the Titans come into this game off a 41-38 win at Houston last Sunday.  And the Titans have now gone 'over' the total 10-0-1 off a win.  Finally, NFL Playoff games have gone 'over' the total 80% of the time over the past 20 years if a team's previous game totaled more than 76 points.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Take the Ravens/Titans 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Washington Football Team + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Football Team was fortunate it played in the NFC (L)East division this season, as it qualified for the Playoffs with a 7-9 record.  But every team is 0-0 when the Playoffs start, so there's no reason Washington can't find success in this tournament.  And, historically, mediocre teams have done VERY WELL in the NFL Playoffs, provided they played AT HOME.  Indeed, sub-.560 NFL teams have gone 5-0-1 SU/ATS at home in the NFL playoffs, including outright wins as a +7.5-point underdog (Denver/Pitt, 2012) and as a +10-point home underdog (Seattle/N.O., 2011).  In contrast, on the road, such teams have covered just 5 of 20 games.  The Buccaneers erupted for 44 points last week, in a 17-point win over Atlanta.  Unfortunately, NFL playoff teams have gone 34-51 ATS away from home after scoring 35+ points in their previous game (against an opponent which didn't score 35+ points in its previous game).  And Tampa's opponent last week -- Atlanta -- had a defensive average of 24.66 ppg, so it wasn't surprising the Bucs were able to post a lot of points.  But Tampa has struggled this season vs. foes (like Washington) with defensive averages of less than 21 ppg, as it's 0-4 ATS (compared to 9-3 ATS vs. foes with defenses that gave up 21+ ppg).  Meanwhile, Washington has excelled vs. high-octane offenses (like Tampa's) that score at least 28 ppg, as it's 4-0 ATS (compared to 5-7 ATS vs. foes with offense that don't score 28+ ppg).  And the Football Team held those 4 explosive offenses to just 17.75 ppg.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over San Antonio.  We played on the Spurs in each of their last two games, and were rewarded with upset wins over both the Clippers and Lakers.  But off those two big upset wins, we will fade the Spurs as a road favorite tonight.  Indeed, teams off back to back upset wins are a soft 42% as favorites vs. foes with losing SU/ATS records.  And the Spurs have covered 12 of their last 39 when favored, including 1-9 ATS vs. foes off back to back losses.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Charlotte.  The Hornets come into this game off back to back upset wins over the Pelicans last night, and these Hawks on Wednesday.  But off those two upset road wins, we'll fade Charlotte tonight, and take the revenge-minded Hawks.  Since 1990, teams off back to back upset wins on the road have covered just 28% as a home underdog vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  These two teams met just two weeks ago, and Seattle held the Rams to just 9 points, in a 20-9 win.  But playoff rematches of games involving a team which scored less than 10 points in the previous matchup have gone over the total 61% since 1980 due, in part, to that team's offense being much more productive in the Playoff game.  And .600 (or better) teams -- like the Rams -- that managed to score no more than 50 points combined over their three previous games, have gone 'over' the total 59-33, including over the total in 7 of 8 Playoff games!  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Seattle.  These two teams met two weeks ago in Seattle, and the Seahawks won, 20-9, as a 1.5-point home favorite.  The line for this game is slightly higher, given the injuries on the side of the Rams.  I like the underdog here, as revenge-minded NFL underdogs off a SU win have cashed 80% in the Wild Card round vs. division foes.  And the revenger in this NFC West division rivalry is 9-5 ATS, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog.  Even better:  the Rams own the superior defense, as it allows just 18.5 ppg (Seattle's defense allows 23.18).  And Playoff underdogs of +4 or less points, with a defense which rates at least 4.5 ppg better, have covered 71% over the last 41 years.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over Southern Utah.  The Thunderbirds have won eight straight, while the Vandals have lost eight straight after Thursday night's game between these two teams, won by Southern Utah, 85-80, as a 14.5-point favorite.  Still, Idaho easily covered the double-digit spread.  But these two teams' divergent won/loss streaks have worked to create point spread value for the underdog.  And we'll happily step in and take the points with Idaho, as it's 64-35 ATS on the road off a road loss, including 23-6 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Meanwhile, Southern Utah is a horrid 14-36 ATS at home off an ATS defeat.  I look for the Vandals to easily cover the spread here again this afternoon.  Take Idaho + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over the LA Clippers.  We played on Los Angeles on Wednesday, as a 4-point road favorite, and were rewarded with a 7-point victory.  But we will take Golden State in this rematch, as it's 52-27-1 ATS vs. division rivals if it lost its previous game, while the Clippers are 13-35 ATS off a SU/ATS win, when favored by 4+ points vs. a revenge-minded foe.  Grab the points with the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Sacramento.  The Raptors have (unbelievably) gotten off to a 1-6 start this season.  But there's no reason to panic.  Their slow start is partly due to bad luck, as they could have won/covered three of their six SU/ATS losses.  And a difficult schedule also hasn't helped.  But tonight, the Raptors will play a team they're significantly better than, and I believe they'll take out their frustrations tonight, and blow out Sacramento.  For technical support, consider that Toronto is 15-6 ATS off 3 ATS losses, including 12-2 ATS off a loss.  And the Kings are 11-22 ATS as a home dog of more than 2 points vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with the Raptors.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the North Dakota Fighting Hawks + the points over Oral Roberts.  The Eagles have been installed as a double-digit home favorite following their back to back wins (and covers) at Nebraska-Omaha last weekend.  But they're an awful 15-36 ATS when favored by more than 5 points, and 24-46 ATS off back to back wins.  Grab the points with North Dakota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Orlando.  The Rockets check in off back to back SU/ATS losses to Dallas and Indiana, and have been installed as a home favorite vs. Orlando, which has won its last two games (both SU and ATS).  We'll lay the points with the Rockets, as they've covered 58% off back to back losses, if they failed to cover their previous game, and their opponent is off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Meanwhile, the Magic are a poor 52-74 ATS as single-digit underdogs vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Houston.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tarleton St. Texans + the points over Grand Canyon.  The Antelopes have gotten out to a 6-0 ATS start this season.  But they're now favored by a significant amount on the road and, by my numbers, the line is inflated.  And, even more important, is the fact that Grand Canyon has only covered the point spread by, on average, 4.83 ppg.  And that number is exceptionally low for a team which has started a season with at least 6 ATS wins.  Indeed, there have been 221 events where a team was 6-0 (or better) against the spread.  And a 4.83 average line differential ranks 210th of the 221.  That low number indicates that the Antelopes 6-0 ATS record is due more to randomness than their superior play.  Not surprisingly, teams that start the season with a 6-0 ATS (or better) record have gone 8-24 ATS if their average line differential wasn't greater than 6.10.  Take Tarleton St. + the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Central Connecticut State Blue Devils + the points over Bryant.  This is a rematch of a game played yesterday, won by Bryant, 93-68.  But off that loss, we'll take the Blue Devils in the rematch.  This season, because of COVID-19, it's commonplace for conferences to schedule back-to-back meetings between schools.  And the team which lost the first meeting has covered the second 62 of 113 (55%).  Even better:  double-digit road underdogs are 146-109 ATS in the 2nd meeting when playing with revenge from a 25-point loss in the first meeting of the season.  Take Central Connecticut St.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Perhaps the third time will be the charm for Gregg Popovich's men.  They've played Los Angeles twice already this season, with both games in the Alamo City ending in defeat for the Silver and Black.  But after getting blown out in Game #1, Game #2 went down to the wire for a 109-103 Lakers victory.  We played on San Antone in that game as a 7-point underdog, and we'll play on them here, at Los Angeles.  The Spurs come into this game off an upset win over the Clippers on Tuesday, and are now a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road this season.  They're also 57-36 ATS on the road vs. non-division foes in the regular season when playing with revenge, including 14-7 ATS when playing with double-revenge.  Meanwhile, the Lakers are 26-43 ATS as a favorite in the regular season vs. a foe they defeated twice earlier in the season.  Finally, San Antonio falls into a 90-40 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Spurs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over SMU.  The Bearcats lost at home, 70-66, to Tulsa this past Saturday.  And that was Cincy's fifth straight defeat (and fourth straight as a favorite).  Tonight, the Bearcats will be in Dallas to play an SMU team off a home loss to Houston (after starting the season with six straight wins).  We'll grab the points with Cincinnati, as it's 23-10 ATS as an underdog off back to back losses.  Even better:  NCAA Basketball teams off 4+ upset losses have cashed 73.9% over the last 31 years.  Grab the points with John Brannen's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Golden State Warriors.  Steve Kerr's men must like the number 137, as that's been their point total in each of their last two games.  They poured in 137 in a 31-point upset win over Sacramento on Monday, and also scored 137 vs. Portland the night before that, in a 15-point win.  But off those back to back upsets, we'll fade Golden State tonight.  And they will be welcoming a Clippers team in an ornery mood off an upset home loss yesterday to San Antonio.  That was Los Angeles' 3rd loss of the season.  In their previous defeats, they bounced back to win and cover vs. Minnesota (124-101) and Phoenix (112-107).  L.A. is now 34-13 ATS off a loss, while the Warriors are a poor 18-33 ATS off a win.  And NBA underdogs are a horrid 2-16 ATS after scoring 120+ in back to back upset wins.  Take the Clippers tonight to crush Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Blue Jays minus the points over Seton Hall.  The Blue Jays have won their last four games, and are 8-2 SU on the season, though they failed to cover each of their last 3 games.  Meanwhile, the Pirates are 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS after winning their last 3 games SU/ATS.  We'll take Creighton to snap its ATS losing streak tonight as .800 (or better) home teams, at Game 11 forward, off 3+ wins, but 3+ ATS losses, have covered 69% since 1990 vs foes off an ATS win.  And the Blue Jays are also 30-15 ATS at home off back to back ATS defeats, if they weren't favored by more than 12 points.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder + the points over New Orleans.  These two teams met last Thursday in Oklahoma, and the Pelicans blew out the Thunder, 113-80, as a 6-point road favorite.  We'll take OKC in this re-match, as the Thunder are 18-7 ATS their last 25 when playing with revenge, including 8-0 ATS when priced from +4 to +10 points.  Meanwhile, the Pelicans have covered just 8 of 22 as a favorite vs. revenge-minded foes, and are 8-21 ATS at home off a SU loss.  Finally, the Thunder fall into a 143-83 ATS revenge system of mine.  Grab the points with OKC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over New York.  The Knicks have won two straight -- both as big underdogs -- while the Jazz were blown out last night by 34 points in Brooklyn.  It will be a short trip to Madison Square Garden to face the Knicks on Wednesday, and we'll lay the points with Utah.  Since 1990, .563 (or better) NBA teams have cashed 63% after losing their previous game by more than 28 points, if their opponent was off back to back wins.  And home dogs off upset road wins have cashed just 39% over the last 31 years vs. foes off upset road losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets blew out Minnesota, 124-109, on Sunday, in Minneapolis.  But we'll take Minnesota in the rematch tonight.  And, unlike Sunday's game, this will be played in Denver.  That's good news for the T-Wolves, who are 20-2 ATS their last 22 in Denver, when priced as an underdog of +1.5 to +15 points.  And, regardless of where the point spread is, the ROAD TEAM has gone 41-10-1 ATS its last 52 in this series!  That's one reason I love Minnesota tonight.  Another is that rested, revenge-minded double-digit underdogs are 300-234 ATS against division rivals.  Take Minnesota + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Lakers bested Memphis here, on Beale Street, on Sunday, by a 108-94 count.  That was the Lakers' 3rd straight road win.  Unfortunately for the defending champs, they're a dreadful 110-163-4 ATS when favored by 8+ points against a revenge-minded opponent, including 21-58 their last 79 if they won by more than 5 points in the previous meeting.  And the Lakers also fall into a negative 40-84 ATS system of mine which fades certain road favorites that were playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Memphis + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Ohio.  The Bobcats' Jason Preston (16.8 ppg, 7.4 assists) won't play today due to a lower body injury, and that's enough for me to pull the trigger on the double-digit underdog Huskies.  Northern Illinois is a fantastic 55-30 ATS as road underdogs of +8 (or more) points.  Take the Huskies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs minus the points over Campbell.  These two teams met here, in Boiling Springs, yesterday.  And the Fighting Camels came away with a 70-61 upset win.  Off that loss, we'll lay the points with the home team, as the Runnin' Bulldogs are 39-24 ATS their last 63.  And they also fall into a 153-101 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain home (or neutral-sited) teams that were upset by their opponent previously in the season.  Take Gardner-Webb.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Charleston Southern Buccaneers + the points over Winthrop.  The Eagles won Round 1 yesterday, 85-69, and covered by a point.  We'll take Charleston Southern this afternoon in this rematch, as the Eagles have covered just 30.7% vs. foes off SU/ATS losses.  And Winthrop also falls into a negative 41-84 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road teams vs. foes off SU/ATS losses.  Take Charleston Southern + the points.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Golden State.  We had a big play on the Warriors last night, and were rewarded with an upset win by Steph Curry (62 points) and Co. against Portland.  But off that win, we will fade Steve Kerr's crew tonight, as Golden State falls into negative 99-143, 56-118 and 33-70 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset wins.  Even worse for the Warriors:  Golden State is 17-33 ATS off a straight-up win, while Sacramento is 26-11 ATS on the road off a road loss.  Lay the small number with the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over Wyoming.  This is a rematch of a game played here on Saturday.  The Cowboys upset the Bulldogs, 78-74, in that one, as a 2-point underdog.  We'll play on the home team tonight, as Fresno is 10-0 ATS its last 10 conference games off a home loss, while Wyoming is a wallet-busting 29-66 ATS off a win away from home, if their opponent is off a straight-up loss.  Take the Bulldogs minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over Houston.  The Mavericks lost their previous game, last night, at Chicago, 118-108.  And Dallas entered that game as a 4-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Rockets downed Sacramento, 102-94, as a 2-point home underdog on Saturday.  We'll take the Mavericks to bounce back tonight, as they're 111-63 ATS off a loss, if matched up against an opponent which was off a win.  And the Rockets are a woeful 1-13 ATS their last 14 off an upset win at home, if matched up against an opponent which failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in its previous game.  Finally, the Rockets fall into negative 2-29, 31-69 and 13-54 ATS systems of mine.  Take Dallas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Illinois Salukis + the points over Drake.  The Salukis lost here yesterday, 73-55, so they will get a 2nd opportunity this evening to hand the Bulldogs their first loss of the season.  We'll grab the points with the road underdog, as Missouri Valley Conference teams have gone 137-87 ATS when playing with revenge from an 18-point conference loss, provided they weren't favored by more than 3 points.  Take Southern Illinois + the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Charleston Southern Buccaneers + the points over Winthrop.  The Eagles are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS, while the Bucs are 1-5 SU and 0-5 ATS on the season after being upset twice by Hampton in their last two games.  But off those two upset losses, we'll grab the points with the Bucs, as home teams off back to back upset losses are 107-77 ATS, including 20-9 ATS as an underdog.  Take the Bucs.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Washington.  The Eagles suffered an upset loss to Dallas last week, as they succumbed 37-17, as a 4.5-point favorite.  But off that defeat, we'll take Philly as a home underdog on Sunday night.  Indeed, over the past 36 years, NFL underdogs (or PK) off an upset loss by more than 10 points have gone 123-78-5 ATS vs. division rivals.  And the Football Team has covered just 59 of its last 158 games as a favorite, including 19 of 63 vs. division foes.  Take Philadelphia.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Jacksonville.  It seems like ages ago, but the Jaguars won their first game of the season (and their ONLY game this season) when they upset the Colts in Week 1, as a big home underdog.  I expect the Colts to avenge that loss today with a big victory at home.  Indeed, favorites of more than 13 points have covered 86% over the past 41 years when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Colts minus the points.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Broncos have been terrific as home underdogs, or small favorites over the years.  And especially if their opponent wasn't off a momentum-building SU/ATS win.  In that instance, the Broncos have gone 31-7 ATS at home when not favored by 2+ points, including 21-1-2 ATS when matched up against an opponent with a .625 (or worse) record.  Meanwhile, the Raiders are a dismal 12-22 ATS in their final road game of the season, including 0-5 ATS as a favorite.  Take Denver to blow out Las Vegas.

At

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Indianapolis Colts/Jacksonville Jaguars game.  This should be one of those games where the Colts can "name their score." Certainly, a blowout at half-time would not surprise.  And first-half blowouts often result in the leading team taking its foot off the gas in the 2nd half.  Dating back to 1985, NFL games with point spreads of 14+ points have gone 'under' the total 65.7% of the time in the season's final two weeks.  Take the 'under.'

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Arizona Cardinals game.  These two teams met four weeks ago, and the Rams won a 38-28 shootout.  The line for that game was 55 points, so it sailed over the total by 11 points.  Yes, a lot of offensive pieces are missing for this game (e.g., Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, etc.), but the oddsmakers' movement of this number down to this level was a vast over-reaction.  The 'over' falls into a 28-7 Totals system of mine, and we'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on Sunday afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Kansas City will be resting most of its better players, so they have been installed as a home underdog today vs. its division rival, the LA Chargers.  We'll lay the points with the Chargers, as underdogs off 5+ wins -- like Kansas City -- are a wallet-breaking 13-33 ATS when installed as an underdog of 3+ points.  And defending Super Bowl champs are a poor 4-13 ATS off back to back wins, if they are an underdog vs. an opponent off a win, including 1-7 vs. division rivals.  Finally, road favorites have covered 63% over the previous 20 seasons in the final week of the season, if they owned a WORSE record than the home team.  Take the Chargers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the NY Giants over the Dallas Cowboys.  Both of these NFC East division rivals have hopes of making the Playoffs.  And we'll take the homestanding Giants this afternoon.  It's true that Dallas has a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, while the NY Giants are on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  But over the last 41 years, road favorites of 7 or less points (or PK) are an unsightly 25% ATS vs. foes that were on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak!  Even worse, the Cowboys are 0-16 ATS in their final road game of the season when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of less than 4 points!  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the under in the Minnesota/Detroit game.  Both of these also-rans have dismal defenses.  Minnesota gives up 29.3 ppg, while Detroit gives up 32.1 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game in this meaningless, final game of the season.  But final games of the NFL season that involve at least one team with a defense which give up 28+ points have gone 'under' 67.3% since 1981.  The 'under' also falls into 113-74 and 103-47 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  The Cavaliers were absolutely annihilated in their previous game -- a 119-99 defeat at Indiana on Thursday.  The Cavaliers had last night off, but Atlanta was in action at Brooklyn, and pulled off a big upset as a 6.5-point underdog, 114-96.  That sets up Cleveland well tonight, as they will be rested against an unrested foe.  And the Hawks are a dreadful 44-85 ATS vs. rested foes off 20-point (or worse) defeats.  Take Cleveland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Bowling Green.  The Huskies are at home this evening where they hope to get off the schneid "in Vegas," as they're a woeful 0-7 ATS.  They'll host the Falcons, who upset Ohio as a 6-point underdog on Thursday.  By my numbers, their poor performance has led to us getting value in this point spread, and we'll grab the points.  For technical support, notwithstanding their 7-game ATS losing streak, consider that the Huskies are 35-22 ATS long-term off back to back ATS losses, when installed as an underdog in Mid-American conference games.  And NCAA teams have gone 10-0 ATS at home, if they started the season on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, and their opponent was off an upset win.  Take Northern Illinois.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Dayton Flyers minus the points over George Mason.  The Patriots are off a 93-92 upset win over UMass, while the Flyers were upset by La Salle, 67-65, as an 11.5-point favorite.  We'll fade George Mason this afternoon, as it's a horrid 7-23-1 ATS off an upset win over a conference foe, while Dayton is 20-12 ATS off an upset loss.  Lay the points with Dayton.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Tulsa.  Cincy has lost its last four games, with the last three coming in the favorite role.  The good news for the Bearcats is that NCAA favorites off an upset road loss, and 3 upset losses overall, have cashed 60% over the past 20 years.  Take the Bearcats to blow out Tulsa.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over Indiana.  The 4-5 Rebels have been installed as a huge underdog vs. Indiana, which finished #11 in the final CFP rankings, and #7 in the AP Poll.  And, by my numbers, it's an overlay.  It's true that Lane Kiffin's Rebels were upset at LSU to end their regular season.  And that may keep a number of bettors away from the Ole Miss side.  But teams off upset defeats have gone 65.8% ATS in the Bowls since 1981 if they were playing at a home or neutral site, and their opponent wasn't off an upset loss.  That bodes well for Ole Miss on Saturday.  As does the fact that SEC Conference underdogs of +3 (or more) points are a perfect 11-0 ATS in the post-season if they lost their previous game, and their opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Grab the points with Ole Miss!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over North Carolina State.  The Wildcats were 4-6 on the season, while NC State was 8-3.  Yet Kentucky played the MUCH MORE difficult schedule (comprised wholly of SEC Conference foes), which is why it is favored by a small amount this afternoon.  Indeed, Kentucky's six losses were to such powers as Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri.  We'll take the team from the stronger conference, as SEC Conference teams are 73-47 ATS in the bowls when not laying 3+ points, or off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Meanwhile, the Wolfpack are 3-12 ATS their last 15 away from home, including 0-6 ATS when the line was less than 7 points.  Take Kentucky to blow out NC State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Clemson.  The Buckeyes were provided a lot of bulletin board material from the words of Clemson coach, Dabo Swinney.  And I'm sure the Ohio State team wasn't happy to hear Swinney's thoughts.  But, at the end of the day, when the players take the field, those words stay behind on the bulletin board, and a team's success (or failure) will largely come down to execution.  And over the last decade, it's hard to find a team which is better at execution than three of the four teams in this NCAA Football semi-final (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State).  Those three programs have been heads-and-shoulders above their brethren for years.  And one of the lessons gleaned over the years is that you don't want to give ANY of these team points -- regardless of the talent on the other side.  To wit:  the Buckeyes are 15-3 ATS their last 18 as underdogs, including 13-0 ATS when getting more than 3 points!  (Likewise, Alabama is 12-7-1 ATS its last 20 as an underdog, and Clemson is 33-13 its last 46 as a dog.)  Last year, of course, when these two teams met in the semifinal round, Ohio State did suffer a rare ATS defeat as an underdog (one of the Buckeyes' three ATS losses of their last 18 as underdogs).  But Ohio State was only getting 2.5 in that game.  And it only lost by six.  So, if it was getting the number of points as it is in tonight's game, then it would have covered.  So, yes, Clemson has the much better quarterback, and the better overall team.  But so did most of the last 13 opponents the Buckeyes faced when they were installed as an underdog greater than 3 points.  And Ohio State still managed to cover the spread in each of them.  The bottom line is that there's too much success on the side of the Buckeyes as an underdog (or with any of the NCAA blue bloods) to lay a significant amount of points to them.  Now, it's also true that Ohio State struggled in the Big 10 Championship game vs. Northwestern, and mustered just 22 points in a 12-point win (as a 16.5-point favorite).  But the Buckeyes are a fantastic 53-25 ATS after scoring 24 or less points in their previous game.  Take Ohio State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This is the 2nd of a back-to-back match-up here in San Antonio.  The Lakers won the first game on Wednesday, 121-107.  But we'll take the points with the Spurs tonight, as they're 21-4 ATS their last 25 at home when playing with revenge against .550 (or better) foes.  Take San Antonio.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Chicago.  This will be the 3rd time this season we played on Milwaukee after it lost its previous game.  We easily cashed the first two, as Milwaukee blew out Golden State (138-99) and Miami (144-97) after its first two losses.  Now, it gets to take out its frustration on an unrested Chicago Bulls squad.  The Bulls won their game last night in Washington.  But Chicago is 14-31 ATS off a win, while the Bucks are 29-10 ATS in the regular season off a loss.  Lay the double-digits with the Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos minus the points over Cal State Fullerton.  The Gauchos will be playing their seventh game of the season, while Fullerton has played just once thus far (a game against non-Division I San Diego Christian).  So, Fullerton may be a bit "behind" UCSB when it comes to execution tonight.  And in this COVID environment, where some programs have gotten late starts, they've been poor ATS when playing away from home, if it was one of their first three games, while their opponent has played at least six games.  Our "less experienced" schools have covered just five of 19 games thus far (including 0-7 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +21 points).  Even worse for Fullerton:  UCSB has started its Big West Conference schedule with two upset losses at Cal Irvine.  But NCAA home teams have covered 70% over the last 31 years off back to back upset road losses to start a conference schedule.  With the Gauchos 8-1 ATS vs. the Titans when laying 6+ points, we'll back the home team on New Year's Day.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Charlotte.  The Hornets come into tonight's game off back to back upsets of Brooklyn and Dallas.  And they were underdogs of +11.5 and +8 points, respectively, in those games.  Unfortunately, NBA teams off back to back wins as underdogs of +8 (or more points), have cashed just 3 of 21 games vs. .470 (or worse) foes.  Take Memphis + the points.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Miami Heat.  The Mavericks lost here, at home, on Wednesday to Charlotte.  And Dallas was an 8-point favorite in that game.  But, perhaps, that loss should not have come as a surprise.  After all, Dallas exacted revenge in their game previous to that when they blew out the Clippers by 51 points.  So, a letdown was certainly in order.  Now, however, the Mavericks are locked into their best point spread role.  The Mavericks are a powerful 110-63-5 ATS off a loss when they're matched up against an opponent off a win.  And Dallas also falls into a 52-12 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset defeats.  Take the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Alabama.  The Irish come into this game off a blowout loss at the hands of Clemson, 34-10.  That was Notre Dame's first loss of the season.  And one of the things I love to do in the Bowls is take teams that haven't lost more than 1 time on the season, if they're an underdog, and off an ATS defeat.  Since 1980, these teams have covered 61.2% in the Bowls.  Additionally, big Bowl underdogs of +16 (or more) points have covered 70% over the past 41 years.  And Bowl teams with defenses that give up 21 or less points have gone 64-37 ATS off a SU loss, if their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the Irish + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Georgia.  The Bearcats are giving up just 16 points per game, and have yet to taste defeat on the season.  And that bodes well for the Bearcats as, in the Bowls, .680 (or better) teams have covered 65.3% over the last 41 years, if they surrendered, on average, less points than their opponent, and were getting 7+ points in the game.  Moreover,  SEC Conference teams have covered just five of 19 Bowls when installed as a favorite, if they won their previous game before the Bowl season.  And American Athletic Conference teams off a SU win have gone 43-22 ATS vs. non-conference foes with a scoring margin of +13 (or better), including 8-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +13.5 points.  Take Cincy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Pels are off a 25-point loss at Phoenix, but now fall into a 400-293 ATS system of mine which plays on certain road favorites off road defeats.  Even better:  .345 (or worse) NBA teams have gone 83-136-4 ATS at home if they weren't favored by more than 5 points, and their opponent was off a loss by 24+ points.  Take New Orleans to bounce back tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over New York.  Out of the many surprises so far this season, perhaps none is as surprising as Toronto's 0-3 start.  The 2019 Champs will try to get off the schneid tonight in this "home" game in Tampa.  And Toronto is 17-1 ATS at home in the regular season vs. division rivals when Toronto was favored by less than 10 points.  Lay the points with the Raptors.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  These two teams met on Tuesday, and the Bulls upended Washington, 115-107, as a 6-point road underdog.  But that game as placed the Wizards in 100-57, 165-101 and 213-133 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Additionally, as faithful followers know, I love to go against bad NBA teams off wins.  And the Bulls are a bad team.  Last season, Chicago won just 33.8% of its games.  And it's a dreadful 8-36 SU and 13-31 ATS its last 44 games off a victory. Take Washington.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Minnesota.  The Gophers are 9-1 this season, with their lone loss coming on the road, at Illinois.  At home, Minnesota is 9-0, with a 7-2 ATS record.  Unfortunately, this game on Thursday afternoon is on the road.  We played against Minnesota in that earlier game at Illinois, and got the $$$ with a 92-65 blowout win.  And we'll play against Minnesota again today in this road game.  Indeed, the Gophers are a wallet-busting 20-58 ATS on the Big 10 road when priced from -1 to +11 points!  Yikes!  And Wisky is 37-18 ATS vs. .810 (or better) Big 10 foes here, in Madison.  Take the Badgers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over San Jose State.  Both teams come into this game off big upset wins in their respective conference championship game.  Ball State claimed the Mid-American Conference title with a 38-28 upset of Buffalo, as 12-point underdogs.  And that was Ball State's sixth straight win, and fourth straight ATS win.  Likewise, the undefeated (7-0) Spartans won the Mountain West Conference for the first time in their history when they upset Boise State, 34-20, as a 6.5-point underdog in the title game.  Unfortunately, .500 (or better) Mountain West favorites have been dreadful vs. .500 (or better) non-conference foes when both teams entered the game off a SU win, as the Mountain West has cashed just 25 of 80 games.  That doesn't bode well for San Jose today.  Nor does the fact that bowl favorites of more than 6 points have gone 0-6 ATS off an upset win in their conference title game.  Or that .850 (or better) bowl underdogs of +7 (or more) points have cashed 69% in the bowls since 1980 against foes off SU/ATS wins.  But the clincher is that .800 (or better) bowl teams off an upset win (like Ball State) have gone 12-0 ATS their last 12 when not favored by more than 4 points.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Thursday, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Tulsa.  Mike Leach has always been one of my favorite football coaches, with his Air Raid offenses at Texas Tech and Washington State.  This was his first year in Starkville and, although his 3-7 season was his worst since Washington State's 3-9 record in 2014, he was able to lead the Bulldogs to their 11th straight Bowl appearance.  Miss State will face the 6-2 Golden Hurricane, which bookended two losses against Oklahoma State (in their season opener) and Cincinnati (in the AAC Championship game) with a six-game win streak in the middle.  And Tulsa was 7-1 ATS, and covered by an average of 10.5 ppg.  But Leach has been at his best when matched up against opponents with much better records, as he's gone 16-4-1 ATS vs. foes that owned a win percentage at least 40% better than his team, including a perfect 9-0-1 ATS if that foe covered the spread for the season by at least 10 ppg.  Even worse for Tulsa:  teams that lost their conference title game have gone 10-25 ATS in their next game against foes that did not lose a title game, including 1-10 ATS when priced as a favorite of 7 or less points!  Finally, the American Athletic Conference has not had great success vs. the SEC, as its teams have gone 1-5 ATS in the Bowls, and 1-9 ATS their last 10 away from home (including a 23-0 loss by Tulsa at Arkansas two seasons ago).  Meanwhile, the SEC has gone 8-1 ATS its last nine as Bowl underdogs.  Take Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Richmond Spiders + the points over Davidson.  The Spiders were upset at home in their last game, 76-71, by Hofstra.  And Richmond was a 12-point favorite in that ballgame.  But off that defeat, we'll take Richmond to bounce back on the road this evening, as it's 11-1 ATS in conference games off an upset loss, if it failed to cover by 9+ points in that defeat.  And Richmond also falls into a great 70-29 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in conference games off upset losses.  Take Richmond.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Alcorn State Braves + the points over Baylor.  The Bears are undefeated -- both SU and ATS -- and ranked #2 in the country behind Gonzaga.  That's good news for us, as Baylor was my preseason pick (at 12-1 odds) to win this year's NCAA Championship.  But we will go against the Bears today, and take the points with Alcorn State.  The Braves will have an advantage this afternoon, as Baylor had to play less than 24 hours ago vs. Central Arkansas -- a game Baylor won by 37.  Additionally, the Bears fall into a negative 38-82 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off back to back ATS wins, while the Braves fall into a 92-44 ATS system which plays on certain teams off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Grab the double-digits with Alcorn State.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Furman Paladins minus the points over Chattanooga.  The Moccasins are 9-0 on the season, but they should taste defeat for the first time this afternoon.  Last year, the Paladins swept the season series, 2-games-to-none, and they've won the last 7, by an average of 12.4 ppg.  Moreover, unbeaten, revenge-minded teams, like Chattanooga, with a 9-0 (or better) record, are a horrid 5-24-1 ATS their last 30, including 0-12-1 ATS their last 13, when getting more than 4 points.  Take Furman.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Wisconsin.  Wake Forest ended its season with back to back losses to North Carolina and Louisville.  But both of those were road games; the Demon Deacons were 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS at home, or on neutral fields this season.  And NCAA teams have gone 34-20 ATS in the Bowls if they lost their last two games away from home to end their season.  Meanwhile, the Badgers ended on an 0-4 ATS run, and they lost three of their last four straight-up.  It's hard to make a case for laying points with Wisconsin, as .666 (or worse) teams have been historically poor in the Bowls when laying more than 7 points (33-61-2 ATS).  And Bowl teams off 4 ATS losses have gone 13-26-1 ATS when priced from +3 to -13 points.  Take Wake Forest + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Kansas St Wildcats minus the points over Nebraska-Omaha.  The Wildcats played their best game of the season their last time out -- a 70-46 blowout of the Jacksonville Dolphins, as a 12-point favorite.  In that game, the Wildcats outshot Jacksonville, 45% to 34%, and outrebounded the Dolphins, 45-22.  We'll take Kansas State tonight, as it falls into a 'momentum' system of mine which is 411-305 ATS, which plays on certain home teams off wins by 22+ points when not favored in their current game by more than 13 points.  Even better:  the Wildcats are a dominant 34-14 ATS at home when favored by less than 24 points, if they won their previous game by double-digits.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Miami.  We played on Milwaukee on Christmas Day vs. Golden State, as the Bucks came into that game off a SU loss to the Celtics.  And, as I noted then, Milwaukee's been "money-in-the-bank" in the regular season off a loss ever since coach Mike Budenholzer was hired, as it's 33-5 SU and 28-10 ATS in this role.  I won't go against those numbers.  And especially not tonight when Milwaukee will be out to avenge its playoff series ouster by Miami last summer.  Take the Bucks to blow out the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.