Sports Picks & Predictions

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Philadelphia Phillies.  Brewers OF Christian Yelich became the first Major League player to reach 20 home runs with a blast against the Phillies last night.  Despite his milestone home run, his team blew a lead, and lost to the Phillies, 6-4.  They'll try again this afternoon, with veteran RHP Jhoulys Chacin going to the hill for the 11th time this season.  Although Chacin's overall numbers are nothing special (3-5 with a 4.65 ERA), he has recently pitched well here at Miller Park.  In his last two home starts, Chacin has allowed two runs on five hits in 11 innings in Brewer victories over the Nats and Rockies.  And the Brew Crew is 3-1 in Chacin's four home starts this season.  Chacin has also done very well against the Phils in his career.  In nine appearances against them -- including seven starts -- Chacin is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in just under 49 innings.  The Crew is 81-39 (+27 games on the money line) in their last 120 games as a home favorite, while the Phils are 51-92 (minus 30 games on the money line) in their last 143 as an underdog of +150 or less.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Francisco Giants.  It was a less than a decade ago that the Cleveland Indians made Drew Pomeranz their first draft pick (2010).  The highly-touted southpaw never pitched an MLB game in Cleveland as he was traded early on to the Rockies amid high expectations.  And, except for one season in Boston (2017), those expectations have never been realized.  Pomeranz's resume is a collection of injury-riddled campaigns with losing records and extremely inconsistent performances.  Now he takes his act to San Francisco -- his fifth MLB stop.  But the change of scenery hasn't helped as Pomeranz is 1-4 with an unsightly 5.66 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in eight starts coming into this start.  Tonight could be more of the same as the 30-year-old is 0-3 with an ugly 7.76 ERA in nine appearances (six starts) vs. the D-Backs.  Fellow LHP Robbie Ray will go for Arizona and the D-Backs are 7-3 in his last 10 road starts.  Take Arizona.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox.  A pair of veteran southpaws face off in Houston tonight as Chris Sale and Wade Miley go to the hill in Game 1 of this weekend series.  And nobody would blame you if you thought that Sale had the better numbers coming into this evening.  But it's Miley at 4-2 and 3.51 who has the bragging rights so far over Sale (1-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 10 starts).  While Sale's overall numbers vs. the 'Stros are very good (5-2 with a 2.12 ERA in eight starts), since he's been with the Sox, he hasn't fared so well against them.  In four starts against Houston in a Boston uniform -- including the post-season -- Sale is 0-2 with a 7.08 ERA (16 ER in 20 1/3 innings).  In fact, Sale faced the 'Stros in his last start on May 19 and he lasted just 5 1/3 innings, and allowed three runs.  The Sox are also 3-7 in Sale's last 10 starts, while Houston is 5-1 in Miley's last six.  Take the Astros.   As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Philadelphia.  These two teams met a week-and-a-half ago, and Milwaukee took three of the four games in Philadelphia, including a 6-1 victory against Jerad Eickhoff, who will get the start tonight for the Phillies.  Eickhoff has had very little success vs. the Brewers in his career, as he's gone 1-3 with an ERA of 6.55 and a WHIP of 1.50.  And he's also had very little success away from home, as the Phillies are 11-24, minus 9 games on the money line, with him on the hill in road games.  Eickhoff will face face Chase Anderson tonight.  Anderson's made three starts this season, and his ERA in those three starts is 1.32 (including relief appearances, his ERA is 2.66).  It's been very profitable to back Anderson at home in his career (40-27, +11 games on the money line) compared to on the road (26-43, minus 12 games on the money line).  And the Brewers have also been dominant as a home favorite of -150 or less, as they're 64-30, +28 games on the money line.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  For this game, we will only list the Dodgers' starter, Walker Buehler, and will have a play on Buehler and the Dodgers regardless of who starts for Pittsburgh.  After a very short MLB stint as a reliever in 2017 (9 1/3 IP), Buehler burst on the scene last season as a second-year rookie for the Dodgers.  He went 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 151 K's in 137 1/3 innings while finishing third in the NL ROY voting.  And so far in 2019 -- after a bit of a slow start -- there doesn't appear to be much of a Sophomore slump for the now-24-year-old RHP.  So far, Buehler is 4-1 with a 3.83 ERA.  And although his strikeout rate is down a bit, he has considerably reduced his walks so that his K:BB ratio is actually higher than it was in 2018 (4.60 vs. 4.08).  He'll go to the hill for the 10th time tonight and it will be his first career start against the Pirates.  There's no question that Buehler loves his pitcher-friendly home ballpark, but the youngster has also pitched well on the road, including his last start when he shined in Cincinnati but received no run support.  The Pirates are just 4-9 in their last 13 home games while the Dodgers are 16-5 in the last 21 meetings with them.  Take L.A.

At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Toronto.  The Bucks and Raptors have traded two victories on their respective home courts, which bodes well for the Bucks on Thursday since they'll be back home.  And, dating back to Giannis Antetokounmpo's rookie season, the Bucks are an exceptionally strong 40-13-1 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 100% Perfect, 9-0 ATS, off an upset loss.  This season, Milwaukee not only owned the league's best record (60-22), but it also owned the league's best point spread record (47-31-4 ATS).  In the Playoffs, Milwaukee has continued to win -- both straight-up (10-3) and ATS (10-3).  Thus, it is now 57-34-4, 62.6% ATS on the season.  In contrast, Toronto has burned money this season, with an ATS win percentage of just 47.4%.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Chicago White Sox.  While most baseball people thought it would likely be Forrest Whitley or Josh James who would make the first impact as a rookie starter for the Astros this season, it looks like it will instead be the much less-heralded RHP Corbin Martin.  Martin is a 2017 2nd round draft pick out of Texas A&M, who won his very first MLB start on May 12 against the Rangers with 5 1/3 strong innings.  His "reward" for that was getting his second start at Fenway Park against the red-hot Red Sox.  Although he didn't pitch badly, the 23-year-old wasn't able to get his second victory against a very good Boston line-up.  He's back home tonight and will face an easier situation.  And, with a very good offense behind him, the youngster should be able to get back into the Win column.  Admittedly, the White Sox did win big here last night.  But this has still been one of the most lopsided series in Baseball recently, as the Astros are 11-2 in the last 13 meetings.  Even worse for Chicago:  its starter, RHP Lucas Giolito, is 0-3 in his career vs. Houston with a 7.31 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.  And the Astros are an awesome 178-91 (+37 games on the money line) vs. righties.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, in Game 2 of the Double Header, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over Kansas City.  The Royals will hand the ball to RHP Homer Bailey tonight.  And he's not made many friends "in Vegas" the past two seasons, as his teams have gone 5-24 in his starts.  Even worse for the Royals:  KC is a wallet-busting 21-46 (minus 15.5 games on the money line) when priced from +125 to +175.  And it's a poor 7-18 in interleague games vs. teams from the NL Central.  Meanwhile, the Cards are an awesome 150-81 (+27 games on the money line) as a favorite with Adam Wainwright on the mound.  Take St. Louis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays.  Red Sox RHP Rick Porcello is looking to break a good-year/bad-year streak that's been going on for him since the 2014 season, when he won 15 games with a 3.43 ERA. The year after that Porcello went 9-15 and 4.92, but followed that with his Cy Young, 22-win campaign.  However, in 2017, he then had a league-leading 17 losses with a 4.65 ERA, but came back strong in 2018 to notch 17 wins, along with a 4.28 ERA.  So far, in 2019, he is having an up-and-down season.  But it's early still and Porcello has pitched very well in his last four starts (eight ER in 27 2/3 innings).  He lost his last time out, but we'll give him a mulligan as that was against the best team in the League (Houston) -- and he still had a quality start (7 IP; 2 ER).  He should have an easier time tonight against the Jays and oft-injured starter Aaron Sanchez.  The veteran Jays RHP is healthy for now.  But given his history (just 38 starts in 3 seasons), Sanchez could go back on the IL at any moment.  Boston is a solid 22-9 in the last 31 meetings in Toronto.  Take the Red Sox.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:15 pm, IN GAME 1 of the DOUBLE-HEADER, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Kansas City Royals.  These two were supposed to play yesterday, but Mother Nature interfered, so they will now play a double-dip this afternoon and evening.  Game 1 will feature RHPs Brad Keller (KC) and Michael Wacha (STL).  Keller had a pretty successful rookie season in 2018, going 9-6 with a 3.08 ERA in 41 games (20 starts).  Unfortunately, Keller is struggling so far in 2019, with a 2-5 record and 4.66 ERA in 10 starts.  Keller's biggest problem has been control.  In 58 innings, Keller has issued a league-leading 37 free-passes for a walk rate of 5.7.  Yikes!  You won't win games when you're walking nearly six batters every nine innings.  Wacha is trying to follow up his successful -- if injury-riddled -- 2019 campaign, in which he went 8-2 with a 3.20 ERA in just 15 starts.  Since this is a common inter-league match-up, Wacha has faced the Royals six times and he's gone 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in just under 39 innings.  KC is also a poor 2-8 in the last 10 meetings, while the Cards are 9-3 in Wacha's last 12 home starts.  Take St. Louis.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Oakland Athletics.  Jefry Rodriguez was a mostly unknown rookie reliever/part-time-starter with the Washington Nationals last season.  The 25-year-old RHP probably figured that his chances of being in a Major League rotation in 2019 were pretty slim, especially when the Nats made it clear they would go after a free-agent starter in the Winter.  But then Rodriguez was shipped off to Cleveland in the Yan Gomes trade.  And with the injuries the Tribe has sustained to its rotation, he now finds himself in the starting five.  He has been mostly solid, with a 3.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in five starts -- even if he's only totaled one victory so far.  He'll take a shot at win #2 this afternoon at home, where he has a 3.20 ERA in three career starts.  The Indians are a super 39-16 in their last 55 home games vs. teams with a road win percentage of .400 or less, and I look for them to bounce back off Tuesday's loss.  Take Cleveland.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the San Jose Sharks.  The Blues needed a win in San Jose on Sunday and they got it -- and in a big way.  It all finally came together for the Blues in Game 5 as they put 40 shots on goal (while allowing just 21) and ran away with a 5-0 plastering which was the Sharks worst playoff shutout loss in their history.  It would seem the only thing that can beat the Blues tonight is themselves as they must avoid a letdown at home after that huge road win.  After falling behind 4-0 early in the third period on Sunday, the Sharks tried to lure the Blues into a physical game by taking a bunch of cheap shots at them, but St. Louis kept its cool and would have none of it.  Now they have the Sharks and goalie Martin Jones on the ropes and the last thing they want to do is give them a chance to catch their breath and get back into this series.  The home team is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and the Blues are 17-7 in their last 24 games as a home favorite.  Moreover, St Louis is now 23-7 its last 30 vs. opponents that average 3+ goals per game.  Take the Blues.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Philadelphia Phillies.  Cubs LHP Jose Quintana had a sub-par outing his last time in Cincinnati, when he allowed three runs in five innings and picked up his third loss of the season.  Perhaps his team needs to find a way to give the Columbian southpaw as many home starts the rest of the way as possible.  And that's because Quintana has some of the most lopsided home-away stats in the Majors.  When pitching here at Wrigley Field this season, Quintana is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA in four starts covering just under 27 innings.  In five road games (four starts) he is just 1-2 with an ugly 5.11 ERA in just under 25 innings.  He's home tonight in an important game which could be a post-season preview, given how well both clubs are playing.  Admittedly, he's never beaten the Phils (0-1 in four starts).  But his two outings against them last season were very good (three ER on six hits in 11 2/3 IP with 17 K's and only three BBs).  And most important is the fact that the Cubs are 22-7 in Quintana's last 29 home starts.  Take Chicago.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Oakland Athletics.  There has been all kinds of talk this season about the injury-depleted Cleveland Indians and how they have been underachieving.  And yet, there they are with a 25-21 record and certainly within easy distance of the first-place Twins.  RHP Trevor Bauer isn't having quite the season he had last year (his walk rate is up and his K rate is down).  But at 4-2 with a 3.76 ERA through 10 starts (with a league-leading 64 2/3 innings), Bauer has shown once again that he is a force in the league.  He gets start number 11 tonight against the A's and young RHP Chris Bassitt.  Although Bauer's splits at home aren't pretty this season, he has a career win percentage at Progressive Field of .611 (33-21) in 86 appearances (82 starts) there.  And in his last two starts against the A's, Bauer has allowed just two earned runs on eight hits in 13 2/3 innings with 18 strikeouts and four walks.  One of those was this season (May 11 in Oakland).  Finally, Cleveland is 15-2 with Bauer on the hill at home vs. AL West division foes.  Take the Tribe.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Diego Padres.  A couple of very good young righthanders face off tonight at Petco Park.  Chris Paddack is a 23 YO rookie who is developing into one of the best young control pitchers in the Majors.  In all but one of Paddack's eight starts, he has walked only one batter.  But his tendency to put pitches over the plate more than the average starter may be catching up to him.  In his last start, he got knocked around pretty good, and allowed six runs on five hits (four earned) in 4 2/3 innings, while taking his second loss of the season.  Paddack's mound opponent tonight will be Luke Weaver, who came to the D-Backs in the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis.  And, so far, he is really enjoying his new team.  Weaver is 3-2 with a 3.16 ERA and a 9.6 K rate and 4.58 K:BB ratio in his nine starts.  Also, in four career starts vs. the Padres, Weaver has a 2.28 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in just under 24 innings.  And in his only previous start at Petco, he threw five shutout innings, to earn the victory.  Finally, the D-Backs are 9-3 (+8 games on the money line) in their last 12 as a road underdog of +150 or less.  Take Arizona.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors are up 3-games-to-none in this seven-game series, so they definitely have Portland on the ropes.  But we'll fade Golden State tonight, as #1-seeded teams are a dreadful 0-9 ATS off a SU/ATS win, if they're going for a sweep in a Playoff series, and priced from PK to -7.5 points.  Even better:  since 1990, the Trail Blazers are an awesome 90-52-2 ATS as home underdogs of less than 5 points, including 8-3 ATS in the Playoffs.  Take Portland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Milwaukee.  After covering the spread for all but the final 29 seconds in Game 1, the Raptors only covered the 6.5-point spread for 4 minutes and 11 seconds in Game 2, and were absolutely annihilated, 125-103.  The good news for the Raptors is that this series now shifts to Toronto for Games 3 + 4.  And they're 10-3 ATS their last 13 games off 3+ point spread defeats.  Moreover, since 1991, NBA teams, seeded #5 or better, are 67-42 ATS off a road playoff loss by more than 21 points.  But that's not the best part.  If our team's win percentage is .640 (or better), and it lost its last two games, then our 67-42 stat zooms to 11-1, 92% ATS, since 2002.  The Bucks last 3 games (all wins), were all at home.  Unfortunately for Milwaukee, it's covered just eight out of its last 33 games off 3 home wins.  Take Toronto minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Cal Quantrill was the Padres' first round selection in the 2016 draft and it didn't take long for the RHP to make it to the Majors as Quantrill debuted at the beginning of this month.  He will get his third start for the Pads this afternoon opposite Pittsburgh's RHP Joe Musgrove.  With San Diego's pitching injuries, Quantrill should be able to stay in the rotation if he continues to perform well.  Although he is still looking for his first MLB victory, Quantrill has a 3.60 ERA and eight strikeouts in 10 innings so far.  Musgrove is 2-4 with a 3.59 ERA in nine games, including eight starts, but he is just 1-3 in six games on the road so far.  Musgrove has been a pitcher of extremes lately.  He threw seven shutout innings in his last start.  But prior to that, Musgrove had two of the worst outings of his career, as he allowed 15 runs (13 earned) on 12 hits in just 5 2/3 innings in starts against the A's and Cards.  The Bucs were out-scored in those two by 31-5.  San Diego is 7-3 in its last 10 home games vs. teams with RH starters, while Pittsburgh is a poor 41-63 (minus 14 games on the money line) on the road when priced from +100 to +150.  Take the Pads.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the San Jose Sharks.  Still stinging from a missed call in the overtime period of Game 3, the Blues came out in Game 4 and did what they had to do.  Now they come back to San Jose for Game 5 with the series all knotted up.  And they come back to the SAP Center knowing that the last time they were here, they pulled an upset in Game 2, and beat the Sharks, 4-2.  Rookie Goalie Jordan Binnington was back on his game on Friday night, stopping all but one of the 30 shots he faced (.967).  And in that second game here last Monday, he had a similar effort.  For their third game in a row, the Blues kept their penalties to a minimum (under 10 minutes) after letting the Sharks bait them in Game 1, which resulted in their worst loss of the playoffs.  The Blues don't mind at all being the underdog, as they are 6-2 in their last eight in this situation.  Additionally, they're an awesome 22-7 their last 29 when playing an opponent which averages 3+ goals a game. Finally, San Jose is a poor 24-30 (minus 19 games on the money line) when playing with revenge from a 1-goal defeat.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Houston Astros.  How do you throw seven strong innings against an inferior opponent, allowing just two runs while striking out an absurd 17 batters and still not get a win?  You can ask Chris Sale how (as that is exactly what he did in his last start), but it's unlikely he would have an answer for you.  After that incredible performance against the Rockies (Sale also did not walk a single batter), his record is still a shocking 1-5 on the season.  He will try to have better fortune this afternoon against Houston, which owns the best record in Baseball.  The good news for Sale today is that the veteran southpaw has done very well against the Astros in his career, going 5-2 with a sparkling 1.83 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in seven starts.  The 'Stros will go with LHP Wade Miley, who has has done well in his first season in Houston.  But the veteran has an ugly 7.13 ERA in four career starts vs. the Sox.  Boston is also 9-2 in Sale's last 11 following a quality start by Sale his last time out.  Take the Sox.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Pittsburgh.  This game will match-up two rookie hurlers.  The Pirates will hand the ball to Montana DuRapau, a reliever who will be making his first Major League start, while San Diego will start LHP Nick Margevicius.  Pittsburgh has struggled vs. southpaw starters over the last few years.  This season, the Buccos are a poor 5-8 vs. lefties.  And over the last three years, they're a wallet-busting 43-59 (minus 13 games on the money line).  That doesn't bode well for them tonight.  Nor does the fact that Pittsburgh is a dreadful 27-53 (minus 28 games on the money line) vs. National League West division clubs.  The Pirates won last night, 5-3, but they're just 2-5 this season as road underdogs off a win.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves.  After pounding the Phillies on the road on Thursday, 11-3, the Crew was embarrassed in Game 1 of this series in Atlanta on Friday.  The Brewers' rotation is in a bit of flux at the moment, so having a guy like veteran RHP Chase Anderson, who can fill in and do a more-than-credible job is very important.  After five appearances out of the bullpen to start 2019, Anderson has made a pair of starts and did little wrong.  He currently stands at 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA.  And that's more than enough to earn him his third start tonight as he returns from the IL due to an injured finger, while the Crew awaits the returns of Brent Suter and Jimmie Nelson.  Don't be surprised if the Brewers come back tonight with a similar effort to the one they had against the Phillies as they are 11-3 (+10 games on the money line) in their last 14 vs. teams from the NL East.  The Braves will counter with RHP Kevin Gausman, who threw six strong innings and got the win in his last start.  But they are 0-4 in Gausman's last four after a quality start in his last.  Take Milwaukee.

  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Texas Rangers.  This afternoon will be 24-year-old Dakota Hudson's first-ever MLB inter-league start.  And it's fitting since Hudson was an 18-year-old High School student in 2013 when he was drafted in June of that year by the Texas Rangers.  He decided to forego professional baseball at that time and instead enrolled at Mississippi State University (and then was selected in a later draft by St. Louis).  Now, Hudson gets to face the team that initially selected him in the 36th round almost six years ago.  Certainly, Hudson is a work in progress.  But the talent is there.  And nobody would be surprised if, by the second half of the season, the youngster was a solid #3 starter.  Despite the Rangers' win on Friday, the road team is still 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two.  And Texas is just 3-6 in its last nine home inter-league games.  Take the Cardinals.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the New York Yankees.  We played against Tampa LHP Blake Snell in his last start, six days ago (also against the Yankees and RHP Masahiro Tanaka), and got the cash with New York as an underdog of +152.  But we'll switch gears and take Snell and the Rays in the rematch.  Tampa is a super 25-11 (+14 games on the money line) with Snell on the mound when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest.  And the Rays are 12-5 this season as a road favorite.  Meanwhile, the Yankees have not been profitable as a home underdog over the last three seasons, and they're also dismal as an underdog (whether home or road) priced from +100 to +150 the past three years (21-36, minus 11 games on the money line).  Take Tampa Bay.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Milwaukee.  The Raptors fell by eight points in Game 1, as a 6.5-point underdog.  And the worst part of the game for Toronto backers was that they covered the point spread for all but the final 29 seconds of the game.  Tonight, we'll grab the points with Kawhi Leonard & Co., as I look for Toronto to even up the series at 1 game apiece.  Indeed, over the last 29 years, .663 (or better) teams off exactly one loss, and down exactly one game in a Playoff series, have cashed 66.3% when not favored by 3+ points.  Even better:  the Raptors are 5-0 ATS on the road this season after a loss by more than six points, and #1-seeded teams (like Milwaukee) are a poor 40% ATS in a Playoff series as a home favorite when up 1-game-to-none.  Take the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the San Jose Sharks.  The Blues were one minute away from taking a 2-1 lead in this series when they had a defensive letdown.  San Jose tied up Game 3 on a Logan Couture tip-in, and then later took advantage of a missed call in overtime (a hand pass which led to the game-winner), so now the Sharks are the ones with a 2-1 advantage.  Watching the Blues as they left the ice -- in what can only be described as a controlled rage -- one can't help but think that what happened here on Wednesday night will only serve as motivation for the home team in Game 4.  It might not be a "must-win" situation, but it's close to it, as this series will go back to San Jose for Game 5.  Thus, a loss tonight would create a huge hole for St. Louis.  The Blues are going to do everything they can, of course, to ensure that doesn't happen.  Despite their very tough loss in Game 3, the Blues are still 16-7 in their last 23 as a home favorite, and 27-16 off a loss.  Meanwhile, the Sharks are a horrid 0-5 this season when leading in a Playoff series, Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Texas Rangers.  After a three-year break from the Majors, RHP Miles Mikolas burst on the scene last year with the Cardinals, going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA in 32 starts and earning an All-Star nod in the process.  Much of his success can be attributed to his 1.3 walk rate which led the league last season.  This year, Mikolas isn't off to quite the start he had in 2018, but he's starting to heat up recently.  And his 1.7 walk rate is still among the best in the Majors.  Check out Mikolas' numbers in his last three starts: 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 20 innings.  Mikolas is near-perfect in his career in inter-league starts, going 3-0 with a 2.20 ERA in six appearances (four starts) covering just under 29 innings.  And the Cards' lineup will get the added benefit of a designated hitter in this weekend series, in Arlington, against the Rangers.  The Cardinals also love it when Mikolas starts on the road as they are 14-3 in his last 17 away from Busch Stadium.  Finally, the Rangers are 2-6 in their last eight inter-league home games.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Washington Nationals.  One starter in this game is 3-0 with a 3.08 ERA and the other is 2-4 with a 3.64 number.  Can you guess which one is Max Scherzer?  If you said it was the undefeated one, you'd be wrong.  LHP Cole Hamels has done little wrong for the Cubs this season, while Scherzer has been the recipient of some of the worst luck of any starter in the league.  But the simple fact is that Hamels' team -- mainly the offensive lineup of the Cubs -- has performed much better than the Nats so far this season.  And there's no team in the Majors which Hamels has had more success against than Washington.  In 37 starts vs. the Nats, the veteran southpaw is 16-9 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in just under 246 innings.  And here are some additional stats that point toward the Cubs tonight:  the Nats are 1-5 in Scherzer's last six starts, 0-5 in his last five home starts, and 1-7 in their last eight games vs. teams from the NL Central.  Meanwhile the Cubs are 6-1 in their last seven road games vs. teams with a losing home record.  Take Chicago.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Golden State.  The Blazers were routed by 22 points in Game 1, 116-94, but I love them to bounce back in Oakland tonight.  Indeed, road teams off a loss by more than 21 points have cashed 92% in the semi-finals and finals of the NBA Playoffs since 1991, when priced from +2.5 to +7.5 points.  Even better:  the Trail Blazers are an awesome 11-1 ATS the past two years when playing with revenge from a double-digit road loss.  Finally, the Warriors are a wallet-busting 10-26-1 ATS in games with single-digit point spreads, if the Warriors were off 3+ wins.  Grab the points with Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over Boston.  Coach Rod Brind'Amour confirmed today that Curtis McElhinney will get the start at goalie tonight.  And McElhinney has performed admirably in his back-up role this season.  He was 20-11-2 with a .912 save percentage in the regular season.  And then, in this year's Playoffs, he has been even better.  He's allowed just six goals on 106 shots (.943 save percentage).  Yes, Carolina lost Game 3 here, at home.  But PNC Arena is still one of the most difficult arenas in the league for a road team to go into and win.  Indeed, the Hurricanes are 5-1 at home in this year's Playoffs, and are 7-1 their last eight at home, dating back to the regular season.  Carolina is also 12-5 this year off a home defeat.  Finally, this is the best price Carolina has been given at home by the oddsmakers since they were even money vs. Calgary back on February 3rd.  Since then, the Hurricanes were favored in 20 straight games (between -115 and -360).  Certainly, the reason for the odds shift is the fact that they're down 3-0 in the series.  But the Hurricanes are a solid 9-4 in "elimination" games in the Playoff, while Boston's a poor 14-20 (minus 14 games on the money line) when attempting to close out a playoff series.  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Atlanta Braves.  In the world of MLB starters, there has been no bigger enigma over the past several years than that of Braves RHP Julio Teheran.  Seemingly armed with as much raw talent as any starter in the league, nobody would have been surprised if the 28-year-old had won a Cy Young award by now.  But we are almost a decade into his MLB career and Teheran's overall numbers look extremely average (a .511 winning percentage, with a 3.67 ERA, and just two All Star appearances).  Although he's right in the middle of his prime, Teheran is having another very average campaign so far this season with a 2-4 record and 4.26 ERA in a league-leading nine starts.  And, to make matters worse for him, the new home of the Braves -- SunTrust Park -- has not been to Teheran's liking as he is 8-14 with a 4.73 ERA in 37 starts covering just over 109 innings there.  As good as the Braves have been recently, this has still been a lopsided series here in Atlanta, with the Cards taking nine of the last 11 meetings here.  St. Louis' starter, Adam Wainwright, gave up just 1 run over 7 innings in his last start.  And the Cards have gone 75-38 behind Wainwright following a start in which he gave up less than two earned runs.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds.  With a 4-1 record, 1.76 ERA, and 32 hits allowed (with 70 strikeouts) in 56 1/3 innings, there is already talk about Reds' RHP Luis Castillo being an early favorite for the NL Cy Young.  An All Star selection may seem inevitable -- barring injury -- but before we anoint him as the next Tom Seaver, let's consider a couple of other things about his numbers.  For one thing, Castillo's walk rate this season is 3.8, which is very high for an ace and the worst of his three seasons in the league (at least so far).  In his last start, Castillo struck out 11 in six innings, but he also walked five.  And both of Castillo's starts this month have come against the Giants -- one of the most anemic offenses in the Majors.  This will be his first start of the season against the Cubs, a team which figures to pose a lot more offensive challenges than did the Giants.  The Cubs will go with RHP Jose Quintana and they are 5-1 in his last six starts and 18-7 in his last 25 following a team loss in their previous game.  Take Chicago.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Los Angeles.  The Dodgers will start Kenta Maeda tonight with the hope that he deliver a repeat performance of his last start -- a 5-0 shutout win over Washington.  Maeda tossed six scoreless innings in that game, and put just 3 Nationals on base (1 hit, 2 walks).  However, in his career, Maeda's not been able to string great performances together very often.  Indeed, the Dodgers are a horrid 1-7 (minus 10 games on the money line) in his starts following an outing in which he didn't allow an earned run!  Meanwhile, the Padres have won each of Matt Strahm's last three starts.  And Strahm's road ERA is a superb 2.05 this season.  Take San Diego.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the San Jose Sharks.  The Blues knew that if they were going to keep their incredible season going, they would need to win at least one game on the road in this series.  It didn't take long as, after losing Game 1 in San Jose pretty decisively (6-3), St. Louis rebounded on Monday to win Game 2.  Now, if they can just win their home games, the Blues will advance to their first Cup Finals since 1970.  They let a 2-0 lead slip away in Game 2 thanks to some sloppy play, but they got it back together -- from the latter part of the 2nd period forward -- and took a 4-2 decision.  Most importantly, young goalie Jordan Binnington regained his footing after a rough Game 1, which was arguably his worst performance of the playoffs, and which could have shaken his confidence the rest of the way.  Tonight, Binnington and the rest of the team will have a sold-out crowd behind them.  And that's been a huge factor for the Blues so far.  St. Louis is 17-6 in its last 23 home games and 21-6 in its last 27 against an opponent which scored two goals or less in its previous game.  Take the Blues.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the St. Louis Cardinals.  You can look at Michael Wacha's MLB career and draw two completely different conclusions.  On the one hand, there's the fact that Wacha has a .636 winning percentage (56-32) and an ERA under four runs (3.84) in six-plus seasons.  Many starters in the league would love to be able to say that.  But on the other hand, in two of his last four seasons, Wacha posted an ERA over five runs.  And in every season since he came into the league, his walk rate has increased.  This season, Wacha has a crazy walk rate of 5.4 per nine IP (22 walks in 37 innings).  What's amazing is that, despite that ridiculous number and an ERA of 5.35, Wacha is 3-0 in his eight starts.  This good fortune likely won't continue.  The Braves will go with RHP Mike Soroka who, at just 21 years of age, would appear to have a bright future ahead of him.  Soroka is 3-1, with an absurd 1.21 ERA in five starts, covering just under 30 innings.  The Braves are 7-3 in Soroka's 10 career starts and 6-1 in his seven starts under the lights.  Take Atlanta.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Brewers will hand the ball to southpaw Gio Gonzalez, while Philly will start 33-year-old RHP Jake Arrieta.  Arrieta may never have another 20-win season with an ERA under two runs, like he did in 2015 (when he won the NL Cy Young).  But that doesn't mean he can't be an effective starter in the league.  And with a much-improved Phillies offense backing him up, a successful season in 2019 looks extremely likely for the veteran hurler.  Arrieta is 4-3 with a 3.78 ERA in eight starts so far.  And, here at home, he his 3-1 with a 3.66 ERA in his five starts.  This will be Arrieta's first start of the season against the Brewers, a team against which he is 8-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 17 starts.  And, given Philadelphia's 26-10 record vs. lefty starters, Arrieta has a great chance to improve on his W/L record this evening.  Finally, Arrieta has always preferred pitching at home in his career, as he is 47-30 (.610) in 114 games (112 starts) with a 3.47 ERA at home.  Take the Phils.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over Pittsburgh.  Yesterday, we cashed a big underdog play on the Pirates (part of a 3-0 Baseball sweep).  But this afternoon, we will switch gears, and take Arizona.  After all, Zack Greinke is on the hill for the Diamondbacks this afternoon.  And he's been money in the bank throughout his career when pitching in front of the home faithful.  Dating back to his early days with the Kansas City Royals, Greinke's teams have gone 145-79 (+46 games on the money line) at home, including a 81-24 (+38 games on the money line) when priced at -150 (or higher), and 40-10 (+23 games) when matched up against a team with a -0.50 (or worse) run differential.  Greinke's mound opponent this afternoon will be Chris Archer.  Unfortunately for the Pirates, Archer's struggled on the road this season, as his road ERA is 5.73, with a 1.36 WHIP.  Arizona's 15-5 its last 20 games vs. the Pirates.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  RHP Joe Musgrove came to Pittsburgh as part of the deal which sent its ace, Gerrit Cole, to Houston after the 2017 season.  Musgrove's first season with the Bucs (2018) was nothing special.  But despite just six wins in 19 starts with a 4.09 ERA, Musgrove had some solid numbers.  In just over 115 innings, the 25-year-old allowed 113 hits with 100 strikeouts and 23 walks for a 1.18 WHIP and a very strong 4.35 K:BB ratio.  In two previous appearances here at Chase Field -- including one start -- Musgrove has allowed just two ER in 7 2/3 innings (a 2.45 ERA).  Like Musgrove, D-Backs RHP Luke Weaver came to Arizona in exchange for a very good layer -- in this case, Paul Goldschmidt, who was shipped off to St. Louis.  Weaver is having a good campaign so far.  But through his career, he has performed better on the road (13-10; 3.99 ERA) than he has at home (5-8; 5.04).  The Bucs are 16-11 (+7 games on the money line) in their last 27 games vs. RH starters, and are a live underdog tonight.  Take Pittsburgh.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Boston Bruins.  After making this game of Hockey look easy with a four-game sweep of the Islanders, the 'Canes came into the Conference Final Series riding a wave of confidence.  But that wave quickly turned into a tsunami that has hit them square between the eyes, as the Bruins dominated Games 1 and 2 at home.  It's likely that the long time off that the 'Canes had while the Bruins finished their series over the Blue Jackets did them no favors.  Tonight they really have no excuse as the Finals come to Raleigh for Game 3 -- especially given that the home team (as well as the favored team) is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings of these two.  Another performance like they had in the first two games would almost certainly mean the end of the 'Canes' season.  Despite losing the first two games, Carolina has actually out-shot Boston, 54-53.  And, although he struggled through much of the first two games of the series, the 'Canes still have to be thrilled to have #1 goalie Petr Mrazek back between the pipes.  Carolina is a solid 12-5 when playing with revenge from a loss by 3+ goals.  And it is also 10-6 after not scoring 3+ goals in either of its two previous games.  Finally, at home, in games with an Over/Under of 5.5 goals, the Hurricanes have won 10 of their last 11.  Take Carolina.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over Atlanta.  Braves RHP Mike Foltynewicz had a breakout season in 2018, with 13 victories, a 2.85 ERA in 31 starts and his first trip to the All Star Game.  But an elbow injury delayed Folty's follow-up season and, as a result, he didn't get his 2019 debut until April 27.  So far, the 27-year-old is struggling to find his 2018 form, which is not all that surprising given the seriousness of the injury that kept him out in the Winter.  In three starts covering just under 17 innings, Foltynewicz is 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.  The Cards will go with RHP Jack Flaherty who, like Foltynewicz, had a bit of a breakout in 2018.  It was his second season in the Majors, but Flaherty was still a rookie, so he finished second in the NL ROY voting after posting eight wins with a 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 28 starts.  Flaherty's 2019 is also off to a slower start (3-3 and 4.32 in eight starts) but his 3.62 K:BB ratio is a better number than he put up in 2018.  The Braves are 4-11 in Foltynewicz's last 15 starts against NL Central opponents.  Take the Cards.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Miami.  We played against the Rays in their last game, and were rewarded by a big underdog victory by New York.  However, we'll switch gears on Tuesday night, and play on Tampa Bay, as it will be taking on the worst team in Baseball.  The Marlins have lost their last five games (and eight of their last nine), and are now a horrid 10-29 on the season.  The primary culprit of late has been Miami's offense, as it scored 2 runs or less in each of its last eight defeats.  That doesn't bode well here vs. the Rays' Charlie Morton, who has given up 2 or less runs in seven of his eight outings this season (and also his last six road starts dating back to last season).  Moreover, the Marlins are in their worst price range tonight, as they are a money-burning 3-17 this season when priced from +125 to +175.  Take Tampa Bay.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  D-Backs' RHP Robbie Ray is quietly putting together an excellent first half.  In eight starts, Ray is 2-1 with a 3.30 ERA and 55 strikeouts in just under 44 innings.  If Ray can ever get his walk rate under control, he could transition from being a very good starter to one of the NL's best.  Recently, Ray has done a pretty good job in that department as over his last four starts, Ray has struck out 29 batters and walked only eight (in 22 1/3 innings).  Tonight he faces a very good hitting Pirates team, so he will have his work cut out for him.  However, he'll get a little bit of a break with his mound opponent.  With both Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer winding up on the IL recently (joining Chad Kuhl), the Bucs promoted (from the pen) RHP Nick Kingham.  The 27-year-old is in his second season, but has yet to distinguish himself.  Last year, his ERA was north of 5 runs a game, and that hasn't changed this season.  He has a 5.94 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in nine appearances (one start).  The Pirates are a very poor 25-50 (-28 games on the money line) in their last 75 vs. teams from the NL West.  Meanwhile, the D-Backs are 29-15 in Ray's last 44 nighttime starts, and 19-4 in his last 23 after he allowed one run or fewer in his last start.  Take Arizona.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the San Jose Sharks.  The Blues may have ended up on the short end of the scoreboard in Game 1 on Saturday, but there are a few positive take-aways for the visitors as they prepare for Game 2 tonight in San Jose.  First is the fact that, despite the loss, the Blues out-shot the Sharks, 31-25.  Second, the Blues took seven penalties compared with the Sharks' four, and committed 12 turnovers to San Jose's 7.  So, they know that if they can be more disciplined tonight, they can change their fortunes and tie this series.  They also know that their goalie, Jordan Binnington, has been outstanding for them all post-season, while the Sharks' Martin Jones has had his issues.  Jones' 2.74 GAA is the worst of any goalie left in post-season play.  The Blues were without defenseman Carl Gunnarsson in Game 1 as he suffered an injury in Game 7 of the Conference Semis, but they might get him back tonight.  The Blues are also 7-2 in their last nine games as an underdog and 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. a teams with a home win percentage of .600 (or better).  And in games with Binnington between the pipes, the Blues are 13-4 off a straight-up loss.  Take the Blues.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Philadelphia, as Toronto falls into 49-23, 47-7, 50-10, 30-2, 107-64, 65-18, 158-87, 44-12, 37-6 and 100-43 ATS systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 49-23 ATS system.  Here, what we want to do is play against #3-seeded teams (like Philadelphia) off an upset win, if that #3 seed was not favored by more than 5 points in the current game.  Of course, there's nothing wrong with 49-23 ATS.  But we can improve our angle to a virtually-perfect 93%, 14-1 ATS if we limit our games to those that involved #3 seeds with a win percentage of .628 (or less).  The Raptors will also have the benefit of playing this Game 7 in front of their home faithful.  And that's been a significant advantage for home teams in Game 7 since the dawn of the NBA Playoffs, as they're 105-28 straight-up since 1947.  The numbers also are just as impressive in more recent times.  Indeed, dating back to 1991, home teams are 56-17 straight-up, and 41-30-2 ATS.  Lay the points with the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Oakland Athletics.  After filling in as a spot starter for the A's last season, 25-year-old RHP Daniel Mengden started this season at AAA Las Vegas.  He will get the call today to start in the big leagues again -- although it will probably be a one-and-done situation as the A's are trying to give their regular starters an extra day of rest.  Mengden's AAA numbers so far are strong (3-2 with a 2.77 ERA in seven games -- six starts) and likely earned him this start.  But there is a big difference between the hitters he faced down on the farm and the line-up he will see today.  The Indians will hand the ball to 25-year-old RHP Jefry Rodriguez who, despite a 2.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in three starts, is still looking for his first victory of 2019 (he went 3-3 last year).  Rodriguez could see that come tonight against an A's club that is just 5-9 (-7 games on the money line) in its last 14 day games.  The Indians are also a solid 100-50 in their last 150 games vs. teams with a losing record.  Take the Tribe. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Portland.  The first four games of this series were relatively close, and were decided by an average of 5.5 points per game.  But the last two games were both blowouts.  Denver won here, at home, in Game 5 by 26 points, while Portland won Game 6 at home by 11 points.  I expect another blowout win by the home team in this Game 7.  Indeed, .667 (or worse) road underdogs of +4 (or more) points, off a double-digit win, have cashed just 21.8% in tied NBA quarterfinals series.  That doesn't bode well for Portland this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that Denver's been extremely strong at home this season (39-9 straight-up, 29-19 ATS), including 18-5 SU and 16-7 ATS when not favored by more than six points.  Or that Portland's road point spread record in the post-season is the 2nd-worst in the NBA (Atlanta's 24-51 ATS record is the worst).  Since 1991, the the Trail Blazers are a wallet-busting 18-67 SU and 29-52-4 ATS, including 10-28-3 ATS off a win.  Yikes!  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  With a strong rookie season as a reliever in 2018 (a 2.63 ERA in 26 games out of the bullpen), RHP Dakota Hudson earned a shot at a starting job coming out of Spring Training.  After all, no rotation had gone through more changes than the Cards over the past few seasons, and the team was looking for new talent for its starting five.  So far, the results are mixed, with Hudson showing flashes of brilliance from time to time, but still being hampered by inconsistency.  Hudson has gotten the month of May off to a strong beginning, however, with a 2.45 ERA in two starts covering 11 innings.  And those two outings were against the Nationals and Phillies.  This will be Hudson's first-ever start against the Pirates (although he pitched 2/3 scoreless inning against them in relief earlier this season).  Despite their victory on Saturday, the Pirates are still just 3-9 in the last 12 meetings with the Cards.  Take St. Louis.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays.  With all of the injuries the Yankees have had this season, what they've been able to accomplish in the standings is nothing short of miraculous.  Despite getting a couple of their players back from the IL, the Yanks are still without the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, James Paxton, Luis Severino, Troy Tulowitzki, and DD Gregorious.  But heading into today, they are sitting at 23-16 and just 1 1/2 games behind the first place Rays, who they just happen to be playing today.  RHP Masahiro Tanaka has had a solid, if not spectacular, season so far, with a 3.77 ERA in eight starts.  He'll make start number nine this afternoon and, even though will be facing one of the best in Tampa LHP Blake Snell, there are a couple of reasons to like Tanaka.  First of all, Tanaka is 8-4 in 14 lifetime starts vs. the Rays.  Second, Tanaka is 27-13 (.675) with a 3.55 ERA in 49 daytime starts.  Finally, through his career, Snell is 23-13 (.639) in night games but only 12-10 during the day.  Take New York.

At 8:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the St. Louis Blues.  Both the Sharks and Blues come into the Western Conference Finals off of tough, seven-game series.  And in each case, the final game was determined by a single goal (with the Blues' victory over the Stars going into double-overtime).  No doubt both of these teams will appreciate the extra day of rest as they prepare for Saturday night's Game 1.  Coincidentally, this series is a rematch of the Conference Finals of just three years ago.  That series was won by the Sharks in six games, and San Jose then proceeded to lose to Pittsburgh in the Stanley Cup Finals.  That 2016 series vs. the Blues was won by San Jose despite the fact that the Blues owned home ice advantage, and also despite the fact that the Blues prevailed at home in the first game.  Fortunately for San Jose, it will have home ice advantage in this series thanks to a better regular season record.  And the home team has won Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals in nine of the last 12 seasons, so that bodes well for the Sharks on Saturday.  Even better:  in this series, the home team has gone a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Finally, San Jose is 55-31 (+16 games on the money line) off a home win, and 8-1 this season at home when the Total was 5.5 goals.  Take the Sharks.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Atlanta Braves.  30-year-old first year rookies in the Major Leagues are rare.  And successful one are even rarer.  The jury is still out on whether D-Backs RHP Merrill Kelly will be a success in this, his rookie season.  But at 3-3 in his first seven starts, he at least has shown that he can win at this level.  Kelly will get start number eight tonight against the Braves and RHP Kevin Gausman.  Gausman was ejected two starts ago in the 2nd inning when he threw a retaliatory pitch behind a Marlins pitcher who had thrown at Ronald Acuna last season.  It was a bizarre situation that certainly doesn't help Gausman's stock, which wasn't particularly high in the first place.  Gausman proceeded to get hit pretty hard in his next start against the Dodgers.  So, after winning his first start of the season with seven shutout innings, Gausman has now gone 0-3 with an ERA around six runs in his next six starts.  Gausman's teams are a horrid 11-23 (-13 games on the money line) in his last 34 road starts.  Take the Diamondbacks.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers.  Pre-season predictions that the NL Central would be the most competitive division in the Majors appear to be coming true.  As of this writing, there are 3.5 games separating first place Chicago from fourth place Pittsburgh.  And this weekend, the Cubs and Brewers are playing this series to determine who will ascend to the top of the division -- at least for now.  The Crew easily won round one on Friday with a 7-0 shutout, behind some solid pitching and defense while handing Cubs starter Jose Quintana his second loss.  This afternoon it will be veteran southpaw Cole Hamels taking the mound for the Cubs.  At 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA in seven starts, Hamels is on track to have his best campaign since 2016 when he won 15 games and was an All Star.  Hamels has had success against the Crew in the past, going 8-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 16 starts against them covering 106 innings.  Despite their loss on Friday, the Cubs are super 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs. winning teams, and 5-1 in Hamels' last six starts.  Take the Cubs.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Washington Nationals.  Patrick Corbin and a couple of relievers shut down the Dodgers on Thursday, but that's been a bit of a rare occurrence lately as the Nats have really struggled this season.  Heading into Thursday, the Nats had only plated more than three runs once in their last 10 games.  The fact that they scored six runs on Thursday doesn't guarantee anything as the Nats lineup is still pretty decimated with injuries.  The Dodgers will send veteran RHP Kenta Maeda to the mound and, although Maeda's 4.66 ERA doesn't exactly jump off the page at you, he has done by far his best work at home this season.  In his two starts at Dodger Stadium, Maeda is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with dominating victories over the Red and D-Backs.  Meanwhile, Nats' RHP Anibal Sanchez is 0-4 with a 5.23 ERA in four starts away from DC this season.  The Nationals are also 18-35 in the last 53 meetings with L.A.  Take the Dodgers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Houston/Golden State Game.  These two teams combined for just 203 points in Game 5, and it easily went 'under' the 221 Total.  I look for another very low-scoring game tonight, as this series has gone 'under' the total much more often than not.  Indeed, in the last 50 meetings, the 'under' has cashed 66% (33-17 'under'), including 16-6 'under' in the Playoffs.  Additionally, the Rockets have now gone 'under' in 23 of their last 32 Playoff games when they were not leading in the series, including 6-0 'under' when they were favored by more than 5 points.  And since Steve Kerr became head coach, the Warriors have gone 'under' the total in 18 of 23 games where they were priced as an underdog of +2.5 to +8 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the St. Louis Cardinals.  Adam Wainwright is clearly in the twilight of his career, but he's looking to show -- with the starts he has left -- that he can still be an important contributor to the Cardinals.  Unfortunately, the numbers aren't pretty anymore, as Wainwright has posted a 4.71 ERA in seven starts with an ugly K:BB ratio of just 2.07:1 (29 Ks and 14 BBs).  And although he is 13-7 against the Pirates in his career, Wainwright's ERA against them is 4.45.  The Pirates will go with RHP Trevor Williams who has been a bit of a bad luck starter as far as victories are concerned.  Despite a very solid 3.74 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, Williams has only won one time in seven starts.  But more importantly, the Pirates are 5-2 in his trips to the mound this season and they're 7-3 in Williams' last 10 road starts.  They're also 5-1 in Williams' last six starts vs. teams from their own Division (NL Central).  Lastly, the Cards are 2-5 in their last seven games vs. teams with a right-handed starter.  Take the Pirates.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver.  The Trail Blazers are down 3-games-to-2, and have failed to cover the point spread in each of the last three games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Blazers tonight, especially because they lost by 26 points in Game 5.  However, home favorites have covered 70.5% over the last 29 seasons in Game 6 or 7 of a Playoff series, if they were off three straight ATS defeats.  That bodes very well for Portland tonight.  As does the fact that the Nuggets are an awful 16% ATS since 1991 in the Playoffs off back to back wins, if they are up in their Playoff series by exactly one game.  Finally, #3-seeded teams, off a SU/ATS Playoff defeat, and down by exactly one game in the series, are a solid 55-35-4 ATS, including 30-15-3 ATS at home.  Take Portland to blow out Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the St. Louis Cardinals.  Despite the fact that he won just one game, Pirates RHP Joe Musgrove had a very good month of April.  In all five of his April starts, Musgrove went into the seventh inning and ended up at the end of the month with a 1.54 ERA.  But this month brought new challenges and, in his first start of May, things didn't go so well.  Last Friday, Musgrove lasted just 2 2/3 innings at home in an inter-league start against the A's in an ugly 14-1 loss.  He'll try to get back on track tonight back against NL competition, in St. Louis.  And Musgrove has done his best work in his four road appearances this season (three starts), as he has a 1.23 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.  The Cards will go with RHP Michael Wacha tonight.  And it's hard to believe that Wacha has a 2-0 record when you consider that he pretty much can't find the strike zone.  Wacha has a 5.17 ERA and has walked an absurd 21 batters in 31 1/3 innings.  The Cardinals are playing awful baseball right now, with six losses in their last seven games (outscored 41-18), while the Pirates have won five of their last seven.  Take Pittsburgh.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners.  When veteran southpaw JA Happ came to the Yankees in the second half of last season, he went on a tear.  Happ was decent with Toronto, but coming to the Bronx seemed to put him at another level as he went 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA in 11 starts.  Perhaps not surprisingly, this season hasn't witnessed a repeat of those ridiculous numbers.  But even though Happ has just one victory and a 4.93 ERA in his seven starts, he's been on a nice run lately, posting a 2.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in his last three starts covering just under 20 innings.  More importantly is the fact that, despite his troubles so far, the Yanks are 4-3 in his starts coming into tonight.  Happ has a career record of 4-2 vs. the M's, and New York's 38-19 in their last 57 meetings with the Mariners.  More good news for the Yanks:  catcher Gary Sanchez (11 HR; 21 RBI in 22 games) should be back in the lineup tonight, after he was rested on Wednesday.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:00 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Colorado Avalanche.  Midway through their first-round series against the Golden Knights, Sharks' goalie Martin Jones looked like he might be taking an extended seat on the bench in favor of his back-up.  But Jones got things straightened out, and the Sharks survived to advance into the quarterfinals.  Now, Jones has a chance to go from near-goat to hero if he can lead his team to one more victory and a trip to the semi-finals.  To be fair to Jones, the defense in front of him has played much better lately as the Sharks have limited the Avalanche to just 103 shots over the last four games (the Golden Knights logged 156 shots in the last four games of the first round series).  This series has been as back-and-forth as a series can be.  But the home ice advantage that the Sharks will enjoy tonight should be enough to put them over the top.  To wit:  the home team is 39-16 in the last 55 meetings and the favorite is 38-15 in the last 53.  Moreover, Colorado hasn't seen a Conference Finals in almost 20 years (2002), so this is unfamiliar territory to most of its current roster of players.  Take San Jose.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks won their 3rd straight game -- 113-101 -- to take a 3-1 lead in this Best-of-7 series.  But off that win, we will fade Mike Budenholzer's team tonight.  Indeed, the Bucks are a horrid 19-50-2 ATS at home off 3+ wins when playing a rested opponent.  Even worse, since 1991, NBA underdogs of more than six points have cashed 73% off back-to-back home playoff defeats by 6+ points.  This game will go down to the wire.  Take Boston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the New York Yankees.  The decimated Yankees have begun getting some of their injured hitters back recently (like catcher Gary Sanchez) but now they have additional injuries to their pitching staff that they have to deal with.  Newly-acquired starter James Paxton -- who was off to a hot start -- was just put on the IL for a knee injury and will be out for at least three weeks.  Enter RHP Jonathan Loisiga who already has three appearances (two starts) this season and will get at least one more tonight.  Although he has a 2.70 ERA, Loisiga continues to have control issues and has walked six batters in 10 innings (a 5.4 walk rate).  The M's hitters should be able to take advantage of that, and get to the 24-year-old early and often with their strong lineup.  LHP Yusei Kikuchi goes to the hill for the ninth time and, although he's only won one game in his MLB career, he's given the M's some quality innings so far (a 3.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP).  The Yankees are 2-5 in their last seven home games vs. teams with a LH starter.  Take Seattle.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago White Sox.  The Indians' offense took the night off on Tuesday, registering just five hits in an embarrassing 2-0 shutout at home against the Sox.  They faced a hot starter in Lucas Giolito but tonight it should be a different story against Reynaldo Lopez and his 6.69 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in seven starts.  In two starts here last season -- the only two of his career at Progressive Field -- things were ugly for Lopez as he allowed 12 runs (11 earned) on 14 hits in just seven innings.  So you can certainly understand if the frustrated Cleveland batters are licking their chops a bit at the prospect of facing Lopez again.  RHP Shane Bieber goes for the Tribe.  And although he's been a bit of a tough luck starter with just two wins in six starts, his numbers are solid -- a 3.16 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 37 innings.  The Indians simply win games at a high rate when Bieber takes the mound as they are 17-8 in his 25 career starts.  And they are 13-5 in his 18 night starts.  Take Cleveland.

At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over Philadelphia.  The Phillies will start Jerad Eickhoff this afternoon against the Cardinals' Jack Flaherty.  Unfortunately for Philly, Eickhoff's been dreadful on the road this season (6.00 ERA; 1.83 WHIP), and in his career (Philly is 10-24 in his 34 starts).  Meanwhile, Flaherty's been brilliant at home this season (3-0; 1.87 ERA; 0.83 WHIP).  Additionally, Flaherty has faced the Phillies once in his short career, and dominated them, with 7 2-3 innings of two-hit ball.  He also struck out 13 in that game (a 5-1 home win).  With the Phillies owning a poor 44-89 record as a road underdog (minus 25 games on the money line), we'll fade them today.  Take St. Louis.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Dallas Stars.  The Blues -- a team which has found itself on the short end when it's been faced with a "must win" so many times in the past -- did what it needed to do on Sunday in Dallas.  As a result, the Blues are now one victory away from their second Conference Finals in four years.  For most of their history, the one thing the Blues lacked was a go-to goalie who could get hot in the post-season and carry the team on its shoulders. They finally seem to have found that in rookie Jordan Binnington.  While he isn't the NHL's leading goalie in this post-season by almost any measure, Binnington's 2.59 GAA while playing every minute of all seven of his team's games is very impressive, especially when you consider he is the only rookie net-minder out there right now.  The Blues have a decided advantage in the injury department tonight, being 100% healthy while the Stars have a number of regulars who won't be suiting up.  The Blues are also 20-6 in their last 26 when playing an opponent which scored two goals or less in its previous game, and 42-28 (+11 games on the money line) off a road win.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the New York Yankees.  Few pitchers had a bigger break-out season in 2018 than Marco Gonzalez.  The then-26-year-old southpaw went from being a part-time starter with an ERA around six runs to reliable member of the Seattle rotation with 29 starts, 13 wins, and a 4.00 ERA and 4.53 K:BB ratio.  So far in 2019, the veteran has proven that last season was no fluke.  In a league-leading eight starts, Gonzalez is 5-1 with a 3.28 ERA, and he looks to keep that going tonight with his second career start against the Yankees.  After a week-long power shortage in which Seattle plated just 12 runs in six games, the M's woke up and exploded for 10 runs against the Indians on Sunday.  And for Gonzalez's 2019 campaign, that type of support has been key as he ranks as one of the top starters in the AL so far this season with an average of 6.25 runs of support per start.  Not surprisingly, the Mariners are 9-2 with Gonzales on the hill when priced as an underdog of +150 or less.  Finally, the Yankees have been wallet-busters as a home favorite of -150 (or more), as they're 88-53 (minus 24 games on the money line).  Take Seattle.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago White Sox.  The team which we expect to win the AL Central every season is off to a rocky start in 2019.  Indians' starters Corey Kluber (broken arm), Mike Clevinger (back), and Danny Salazar (shoulder surgery) are all on the IL; All-Star 3B Jose Ramirez is batting .200 with two homers and nine RBI; and the Tribe is hitting an AL-worst .211.  Adding insult to injury, the Indians were throttled by the rival White Sox on Monday, 9-1.  Perhaps it's time for an unfamiliar face to step up for them tonight.  Enter RHP Jefry Rodriguez.  The 25-year-old Dominican will get his third start of the season.  And, so far, Rodriguez has done little wrong, despite not registering a win.  J-Rod is 0-1, but has a very nice 2.13 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in just under 13 innings.  The Sox will go with the very inconsistent Lucas Giolito.  The big RHP has faced the Indians twice before and he is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 11 innings.  The Sox are also a poor 3-8 in Giolito's last 11 starts, and 58-105 as a road underdog.  Take Cleveland.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Houston.  The Warriors lost in overtime, 126-121, in Game 3.  But they still are in a commanding 2-1 lead in this Best-of-7 series.  And that bodes well for the Warriors tonight, as they're 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS when up 2-games-to-1 in a series, including a perfect 4-0 ATS off a loss.  Moreover, since Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have been on the Warriors, they've been spectacular as a road underdog off a loss when matched up against an opponent off a win.  Dating back to the 2011-12 season, they've gone 30-6 ATS!  The Warriors are also 38-18 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, including 13-5 ATS in the Playoffs.  Take Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  The team that revolutionized the "opener" (using a starting pitcher for only one or two innings) was set to go with its most effective one yesterday -- Ryne Stanek.  But although Stanek and the Rays must be disappointed that they didn't get to employ their favorite strategy against arguably the worst team in the League, they needn't worry.  The rain-out on Sunday has allowed the Rays to travel home a bit earlier than they would have.  And, now, they'll get to bypass Stanek in favor of last season's Cy Young winner, Blake Snell, in an interleague match-up with the D-Backs.  And the fact that the southpaw Snell has a 2-3 record and 4.31 ERA in his first six starts shouldn't really cause any alarm.  Snell still has a lower walk rate and higher strikeout rate than he did last season.  Also, he'll be at an advantage tonight since the Diamondbacks have never faced him before.  Snell really excels in interleague play, as the 26-year-old is 6-2 with a sparkling 1.60 ERA in 11 starts covering just under 68 innings.  And Arizona is an ugly 41-137 (minus 58 games on the money line) as an underdog priced from +175 to +250.  Take the Rays.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Columbus Blue Jackets over the Boston Bruins.  After a shocking four-game sweep of the President Trophy-winning Lightning in the first round, the Blue Jackets are -- perhaps surprisingly -- finding that the going is a lot tougher against the Bruins.  With the series knotted at 2-2 heading into Game 5, the Bruins did what they needed to at home, and are now one win away from the Conference Finals.  But the Jackets aren't done by a long shot, as they come back to their home arena where they won 22 games in the regular season (and have lost just once this post-season).  Columbus has to be further bolstered by the fact that the home team is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings of these two clubs going back to November of 2016.  And, finally, it's worth noting that the Jackets are 8-4 in their last 12 (and 27-18 in their last 45) coming off of back-to-back losses.  Take Columbus.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie 

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Milwaukee.  The Celtics won Game 1, 112-90, but lost the next two games by a combined 28 points.  They're in a "must-win" situation in this Game 4, and we'll back them at home, tonight.  Indeed, home teams down 2-games-to-1, off back to back losses in Games 2 +3, have cashed 69% in Game 4 against top 2-seeded teams.  Even better:  Boston's been a beast at home in the Playoffs when not getting 4+ points.  Dating back to April 26, 2017, it's gone 16-2 SU/ATS.  And, finally, the clincher is that the Celtics are 11-0 straight-up, and 10-1 ATS in the Playoffs off back to back SU/ATS losses, if it doesn't lead in the series.  Take Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  When the Dodgers signed RHP Kenta Maeda as an international free agent before the 2016 season, they hoped he would help fill the shoes of the departing Zack Greinke, and add to an otherwise strong staff which included Clayton Kershaw.  After Maeda won 16 games in 2016, there was every reason to believe he would help bring a World Series Championship to L.A.  But injuries and inconsistency have plagued him the past two seasons, and his 2019 campaign has been up-and-down, as well.  Maeda's worst games this season have been on the road (5.59 ERA, 1.81 WHIP in four starts), and against winning teams (7.87 ERA; 1.56 WHIP in three starts).  He'll match up against Padres lefty Nick Margevicius this afternoon.  And the 22-year-old rookie has a solid 3.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over his first six starts.  We'll play against the Dodgers in a road favorite role this afternoon, as we note that they have been poor as a favorite of -150 or less (70-68, minus 19 games on the money line).  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Philadelphia.  The #2-seeded Raptors were blown out in Game 2 by the 76ers, and are now down 2-games-to-1 in this Best-of-7 series.  Even worse for Nick Nurse's crew:  they'll likely play this afternoon's game without their second-leading scorer (16.9 ppg), Pascal Siakam, who suffered a thigh contusion in Game 3.  The point spread for this game has been adjusted by the oddsmakers, of course, to reflect this injury.  Toronto opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but is now an underdog following the change of Siakam's playing status.  We'll grab the points with Toronto, as underdogs off an upset loss in the Playoffs have cashed 58% since 1991.  Additionally, the Raptors are 19-12 ATS their last 31 as an underdog.  And they're 22-5 SU and 18-9 ATS their last 27 vs. Philly.  Take the Raptors + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Colorado Avalanche.  The Sharks had a chance to take a 3-1 lead in Colorado on Thursday but instead the Avs blanked their visitors.  Now the series comes back to the Bay Area and the Sharks have to try to shake off the loss in Game 4 and get back to business.  They out-shot the Avs, 32-28 but allowed a goal in the 2nd and 3rd periods before an empty-netter sealed the deal, 3-0.  The Sharks have to avoid the penalties tonight -- they committed four in that 3rd period to the Avs one -- and if they can do that, then there's every reason to think that they can take a 3-2 lead going back to Denver.  They certainly are hopeful that history repeats itself, as the last time the Sharks were shutout was Game 4 of their first-round series -- 5-0 in Vegas.  They came home from that one and promptly pounded the Knights, 5-2, in Game 5 en route to winning the series.  The Sharks are a terrific 13-4 (+ 8 games on the money line) in their last 17 revenging a shutout loss, and have won nine straight at home following a loss by more than two goals.  Take San Jose.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Los Angeles.  The Dodgers won last night, 4-3, with a run in the 9th inning to break a tie game.  We'll back the Padres as a home underdog tonight, as they are 9-6 this season when installed as an underdog (+6 games on the money line).  And tonight's starter -- Joey Lucchesi -- has a super 2.35 ERA at home this season in four starts.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers are an awful 61-62 (minus 27 games on the money line) on the road vs. division rivals.  Take the Padres.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Los Angeles Angels.  This is the first of a two-game series in Monterrey, Mexico.  The pitching match-up isn't the most glamorous as a pair of journeymen -- Wade Miley for the 'Stros and Trevor Cahill for the Halos -- will face off in the game tonight.  Miley's signing of a one-year, $4.5 Million contract in the off-season was hardly front-page news.  But despite his  1-2 record, Miley has performed well as a back-of-the rotation starter in his first year in Houston. In six starts, Miley has a 3.24 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in just over 33 innings.  And, in a small sample size, Miley is unbeaten against the Angels, going 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in three starts against them.  The Angels are officially the home team tonight, but with Houston's championship pedigree (and Texas' proximity to Mexico), don't be surprised if much of the crowd is mostly behind Houston.  Miley's teams are 17-6 (+ 10 games on the money line) in his last 23 starts as a favorite (11-1 in his last 12 priced as a favorite between -125 to -175).  Take Houston.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Cleveland.  The Indians have been installed as a massive favorite today.  But Cleveland's been extremely poor as a home favorite, priced from -175 to -250, as it's 39-34, minus 31 games on the money line.  Likewise, its starter this afternoon -- Carlos Carrasco -- has burned money at home in his career, with a 43-44 record (minus 22 games on the money line).  That doesn't bode well for Cleveland today.  And especially because Seattle's done its best work away from home this season (11-5, +7 games on the money line).  And its starter -- Mike Leake -- has gone 18-14, +8 games on the money line away from home.  Take Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Portland.  We passed on the first two game of this quarterfinals series, but will grab the points with Denver tonight.  The Nuggets lost a rare home game on Wednesday, 97-90, as a 4-point favorite.  However, Denver is 17-5 ATS off a home loss when the current game had a point spread of 4 points or less.  And road underdogs, off an upset loss at home in the Playoffs, have cashed 57% since 1991.  Finally, the Trail Blazers have covered just 24 of 69 if they were off a Playoff win, including 16 of 52 if they weren't favored by more than 5 points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Dallas Stars.  The Stars leveled this series at 2 games apiece on Tuesday night behind some solid play by the defense and goalie Ben Bishop.  The series now shifts back to St. Louis for Game 5 where the Blues need to demonstrate that they can find some consistency on their home ice.  Rookie goalie Jordan Binnington has proven himself as a #1 NHL goalie, going 30-8-2 this season -- including his post-season starts.  However, now is the time for the 25-year-old to take the next step, a la Matt Murray of the Penguins in the 2016 playoffs. Having said that, Binnington needs to keep his cool tonight and not let his emotions get the better of him like he did at the end of the 2nd period on Tuesday, with a rare four-minute, goalie-on-goalie penalty as the teams were leaving the ice.  The Blues (and Binnington) will be aided tonight by the sold out crowd at Enterprise Center -- the same crowd which pushed them to a 24-15-2 record here during the regular season.  The Stars are an awful 26-47 (minus 33 games on the money line) off a home win.  Similarly, the Stars are just 15-29 (-23 games on the money line) in their last 44 off a home win in which they scored four or more goals.  Take the Blues.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors over Philadelphia.  The Raptors are having a great season, as they went 58-24 in the regular season (and are now 5-2 in the playoffs), and are outscoring their opponents by 6.50 points per game.  Toronto was upset at home in Game 2, so it's critical to get at least one win at Philadelphia in order to take this series back to Toronto no worse than tied at 2 games apiece.  We'll play on the Raptors in Game 3, as NBA teams, off exactly one SU/ATS playoff defeat, have covered 64% the last 29 years (and 11-2, 84% ATS the past 3+ years), if that defeat was at home, and they have a margin of victory greater than 6.35 points per game.  That bodes very well for Toronto.  As does the fact that the 76ers are an awful 4-22 straight-up, and 8-18 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these two Atlantic Division rivals.  Finally, #3-seeded teams are a wallet-busting 25% ATS since 1991 when tied at 1 game apiece in the NBA Playoffs, and off an upset road win in Game 2.  Take the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto/Philadelphia game.  The Raptors have gone 'under' the total in six of seven Playoff games this season.  And they haven't been close.  Indeed, in the Orlando series, the first four games went 'under' by 7, 19.5, 20, and 14 points, while the 5th game did go 'over' the total, but by just 5 points.  And this series is following down a similar path, as Games 1 + 2 have gone 'under' the total by 20 and 36.5 points.  In the Magic series, the oddsmakers were slow to adjust, as the first three games had totals of 212, 212.5 and 211.  Here, in this series, the oddsmakers have adjusted a bit more, as the first three games have had lines of 223, 219.5 and (currently) 216.5 for tonight's game.  But, based on my numbers, the line should be significantly lower, still.  Philly has gone 'under' in 27 of its last 40 home Playoff games, while Toronto has gone 'under' in 14 of its last 20 road Playoff games.  Finally, the total falls into 91-55, 89-54, 99-67, 22-12, 137-91 and 33-13 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Minnesota.  The pitching match-up this afternoon is Brad Peacock for Houston and Jose Berrios for Minnesota.  On the surface, Berrios' numbers are favorable to Peacock's.  The Twins righty has a 2.97 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, which is better than Peacock's 3.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.  But when one goes beneath the numbers, one learns that Peacock has started against much better offenses than has Berrios.  Indeed, Berrios has made six starts this season.  And his five starts against American League clubs (Royals, Tigers, Indians, Orioles (twice)) have all come against teams that rank among the bottom half of MLB offenses.  The Astros have won 16 of Peacock's last 22 starts, and they're also 123-69 (+31 games on the money line) in their last 192 road games.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Atlanta Braves.  Matt Strahm is a 27-year-old LH pitcher for the Padres who, until this season, was used almost exclusively as a reliever.  In 86 appearances heading into 2019, Strahm had only started eight times.  But that appears to have changed.  Strahm has made five starts this season without coming out of the bullpen and it appears that the rotation spot is his to lose at this point.  The ERA (3.05) and WHIP (1.05) are fine and all that needs to happen now is for Strahm to win his first game of the season, as he is currently 0-2 in 26 2/3 innings.  The Braves will go with RHP Mike Foltynewicz, who had a breakout season in 2018, winning 13 games while registering a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 31 starts.  As a result, Folty was an All Star for the first time.  He started this season on the injured list and only just came off it to make his first start.  The rust was evident as Foltynewicz allowed four ER on six hits in six innings in a 9-5 loss to the Rockies.  Including that one, the Braves are 3-8 in Foltynewicz's last 11 starts.  Take the Padres.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Carolina Hurricanes.  There have been upsets in this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs, but none more surprising than the Hurricanes victories in the first two games of this second round series.  The 'Canes had to go to seven games to beat the Caps, while the Islanders were well-rested after a first round sweep of the Pens.  But that hasn't mattered so far as the Canes out-played the Isles at home as they did in Game 7 of the series with DC.  But Game 2 was costly to Carolina, as it lost two more players to injury, including #1 goalie Petr Mrazek who left in the 2nd period with a groin injury.  Back-up Curtis McElhinney came in and stopped all 17 shots he faced, but asking him to do that again after he played in just one regular season game since the end of March is a tall order.  The Isles know that a loss tonight would basically end their season so expect them to come out swinging tonight.  The good news for them is that, with the 'Canes victories in the first two games, the road team is now 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  And the Islanders are 11-1 this season off back to back losses, and 16-1 after not scoring 3 or more goals in any of their two previous games.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm (approximately), our selection in GAME 2 of the Double Header is Tampa Bay over Kansas City, with Blake Snell and Glenn Sparkman the listed pitchers.  This is a big mismatch on the mound, as KC's Sparkman has yet to win a game in the Majors.  He's 0-4 in his career, with a 6.26 ERA (including an 8.10 ERA this season in three relief appearances).  Sparkman will oppose Tampa starter, Blake Snell, who won the American League Cy Young Award last season after leading the league in both Wins (21) and ERA (1.89).  And his ERA was the lowest in the American League since Pedro Martinez compiled a 1.74 ERA in 2000.  This season, Snell's started 2-2, with a 2.54 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP.  Snell did lose his last start (7 days ago) against these Royals, so he'll be looking for a bit of redemption this evening.  And that was a rare loss by Tampa vs. Kansas City, as the Rays have won 11 of the past 13 meetings between these clubs.  The fact that Snell will be pitching with an extra two days of rest bodes well for his club on this Wednesday, as the Rays are 15-1 behind Snell when he's pitched on an extra day or two of rest.  Take Tampa.  MOUND MISMATCH MASSACRE!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  It's still early in the season, but perhaps the most impressive performance by a team is that of the New York Yankees.  Never mind that New York's 17-11 record is one of the best in the League.  What's really impressive is the fact that the Yanks have done it despite a plethora of injuries.  If I tried to document in this write-up the number of players that the Yanks have placed on the IL, or who are otherwise unavailable, I would run out of room.  It's an injury list that is basically unprecedented this early in an MLB season.  Despite the adversity, New York's most famous professional sports team is only two games out of first place.  Ironically -- given his injury history -- one of the players who has been healthy so far is RHP Masahiro Tanaka.  The 30-year-old Japanese import has had winning seasons in each of his five MLB campaigns and, although he's just 2-2, he has a very competitive 3.60 ERA in six starts.  Despite their win on Tuesday, the D-Backs are just 3-10 in their last 13 vs. AL East Teams.  And, finally, the Yankees are 7-0 this season when priced as a favorite of -150 or less.  Take the Yanks.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Chicago Cubs.  If you went into a coma at the turn of the decade and woke up today and looked at the Mariners roster, there is only one name you would recognize.  Veteran RHP Felix Hernandez has called Seattle his professional baseball home since 2005.  And just when it seemed like the man they call 'King Felix' was fading into oblivion, Hernandez seems to have been rejuvenated at the age of 33.  The 1-2 record in five starts doesn't recall memories from his Cy Young-caliber seasons, but he also has a sub-4.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and 21 strikeouts with only three walks.  And that 7:1 K:BB ratio would be the best of his career if the season ended now.  He suffered a tough 1-0 loss in his last outing as Seattle's offense went to sleep to spoil his gem (7.0 IP; 1 ER; 3 H; 8 K; 1 BB).  Hernandez has loved it here at home through the years with a 91-64 record and 3.24 ERA in 207 starts.  It's true the Mariners were crushed 15-1 and 14-1 over the weekend by Texas.  But Seattle's 40-23 (+20 games over the money line) in its last 63 after a loss by 10 or more runs.  Take Seattle as a home underdog tonight.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Colorado Avalanche.  When their first-round series against the Golden Knights got underway, the Sharks had to wonder if Martin Jones could be relied on to get them past the first five games.  In Game 1, Jones was his usual solid self (two goals on 26 shots).  But in Games 2 through 4, he completely fell apart, and allowed 11 goals on just 54 shots -- a save percentage of just .796.  In two of those games, Jones was pulled and replaced by back-up Aaron Dell.  But in the last three games of that series -- and so far in the first two of this one -- the dependable Martin Jones has returned, as he's allowed just 12 goals on 188 shots -- a .936 save pct.  That's the type of goaltending which will win you a Conference Title, if not a Stanley Cup.  His career record vs. the Avs is pretty impressive -- a 10-3-1 record with a 2.85 GAA in 14 games.  The Sharks are also 38-18 in the last 56 meetings of these clubs.  Meanwhile, the Avs are a poor 3-13 in their last 16 Conference Semi-Final games.  Take San Jose.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston.  The Bucks own the best record in the NBA this season, but didn't play like it in Game 1 of this series.  The Celtics blew out Milwaukee, 112-90, to take a 1-0 lead in this quarterfinals match-up.  The entire Bucks' starting line-up shot the ball poorly, as not one player hit 50% of his shots, and the five starters combined to go 15-50, 30%.  As a team, the Bucks were 31-89, 34%.  In contrast, the Celtics' starters combined to shoot 34-64, 53%, while their full team was 47-87, 54%.  Not surprisingly, the Bucks lost by 22, which was their worst defeat this entire season.  However, there is reason for optimism.  First, Milwaukee has generally bounced back strong off poor offensive efforts this season.  Indeed, in the regular season, the Bucks had five SU/ATS losses, in which they shot less than 40%.  But following each of those SU/ATS losses, the Bucks were a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS, and covered the point spread by an average of 9.3 ppg.  That bodes well for Milwaukee on Tuesday night.  As does the fact that #4-seeded teams have cashed just 33% (18-36-2 ATS) since 1993 off an upset road win in the Playoffs.  Moreover, .687 (or better) teams -- like Milwaukee -- are 100% perfect, 10-0 ATS, in the Playoffs since 2006 as favorites of -5+ points, if they were off exactly one loss, and lost that previous game at home by 7+ points.  The Bucks also fall into 23-0, 62-21, 46-11, 100-50, 145-87, 94-42 and 25-1 ATS systems of mine.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins.  Last year, Gerrit Cole's first season in Houston was a resounding success, as he went 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 32 starts.  And Cole was named to the All Star squad for the second time.  So far, his follow-up in 2019 has been a good news-bad news situation.  On the bad news side, the 28-year-old RHP has an ugly 1-4 record and 4.71 ERA over his first six starts.  But on the good news side, Cole also has a league-leading 54 strikeouts in 36 1/3 innings.  And he sports a league-leading 13.4 strikeouts-to-walks ratio.  You have to believe that the W/L record and ERA will come back to where Cole has been over his six-plus year career (a .600 winning percentage and a 3.42 ERA).  There's no better place to start turning it around than here in Minneapolis against the Twins -- a team which has never seen Cole before.  The Astros are 16-5 in their last 21 meetings with the Twins, including 7-2 in the last nine here at Target Field.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Dallas Stars.  If a team is expecting to go deep in the NHL playoffs, it has to be able to win on the road.  No club has demonstrated that more in this post-season than the St. Louis Blues.  The Blues have yet to lose away from St. Louis, having swept all three first-round games in Winnipeg leading to this series.  Tonight will be the Blues first road game of the second round and the fact that it will take place in Dallas is going to test that road record as the Blues are 1-4 in the last five tries here.  However the good news is that they won here this year (3-1 on January 12) and with the split that occurred in Games 1 and 2, the road team is now 4-2 in the last six meetings.  And in their last 20 road games of the season (going back to January 23) the Blues went 12-8.  St. Louis is also 15-8 (+6 games on the money line) in its last 23 games coming off of a home loss to a division rival, and 8-1 on the road after giving up more than 3 goals in its previous game.  Take the Blues.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies.  Two seasons ago, Zach Davies had the quietest 17-win season of any starter in the league.  The slightly-built RHP (Davies is listed at 6'0" and 155 lbs) doesn't throw hard and has an above-average walk rate, but he finds ways to get guys out.  After a sub-par campaign in 2018, Davies is back this season with a 2-0 record and 1.65 ERA in five starts.  For the Rockies, Kyle Freeland was a surprise 17-game winner with a 2.85 ERA last season, and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting as a result.  But the 25-year-old LHP hasn't been able to follow that up with anything similar so far in 2019.  Freeland is just 2-3 with a 4.23 ERA in five starts.  And Freeland recently developed a blister on his finger which resulted in a stay on the IL so this will be his first action since April 18.  The Brewers are 76-35 (+26 games on the money line) in their last 111 as a home favorite.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers.  It appears that rookie RHP Erik Swanson may have picked just the right time to come up from the Minors and join the Mariners.  In need of some rotation help and with a rejuvenated -- and extremely productive -- offense, Seattle seems to be just the place for an unproven 25-year-old former 8th round draft pick.  His 0-2 record in three appearances (two starts) along with a 4.61 ERA may not seem like much.  But Swanson also boasts 12 strikeouts and two walks along with 12 hits in 13 2/3 innings for a very solid 1.02 WHIP and 6.00 strikeouts-to-walks ratio.  Swanson's only previous start here at T-Mobile Park was a gem: 1 run in 6 innings pitched, with 2 hits, 5 K and 0 walks.  MLB Victory #1 could come this afternoon against a Rangers team which sports an ugly 5.87 team ERA (second-worst in the AL only to the lowly Baltimore Orioles).  Texas will go with veteran RHP Lance Lynn, whose teams are 12-23 (-11 games on the money line) in his last 35 road starts.  Take the Mariners.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Carolina Hurricanes.  For those who thought that Carolina's 7-game series victory over the Capitals would take its toll on the Hurricanes and that they would be easy pickings for the Isles in Game 1...they need to think again.  The dogged visitors (just ask the defending Champion Caps how pesky Carolina is) showed no sign of weariness on Friday night, and held New York scoreless for 60 minutes of regulation.  In the OT, Jordan Staal worked his magic again and scored the game winner to put the 'Canes up 1-0 in the series.  It's likely that the long layoff (the Isles hadn't played in 10 days since sweeping the Pens) did New York no favors so look for the Isles to be much sharper this afternoon in Game 2.  The Islanders can start by firing more than the 31 shots (only 29 in regulation) they registered on Friday while keeping the same tight defense and goaltending.  If they can do that, this series should be even at 1 game apiece heading to Raleigh for Game 3.  The Hurricanes are a horrid 18-47 on the road vs. winning teams, 27-58 on the road off 3+ wins, and 33-61 after shutting out their opponent in their previous game.   Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston.  The Bucks earned the number 1 overall seed this NBA season -- their first with Mike Budenholzer roaming the sidelines.  And they've also been great against the point spread, as they're 51-31-4 ATS on the year.  We'll lay the points this afternoon, as home teams that have covered 62+ percent of their games have cashed 71% in the Playoffs since 1991.  Even better:  #1-seeded teams have cashed 69% since 1991 in the Quarterfinals when matched up against opponents off a road win, provided they weren't favored by 12+ points.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs.  We played on the Spurs Thursday night, and got the $$$ with a 120-103 victory.  But that game was at the AT&T Center, where the Spurs have been dominant.  On the road, it's been a completely different story.  And the one statistic which best illustrates this (and one I've mentioned a couple of times already in this series) is that San Antonio is 1-31 straight-up, and 9-22-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points. This stat dates back to the game the Spurs effectively lost their star player, Kawhi Leonard -- Game 1 of the 2017 Western Conference Finals -- when he was injured by Zaza Pachulia.  At the time of the injury, the Spurs had a real shot to win the NBA Title.  Since then, they've been a bottom-rung playoff team.  Gregg Popovich, who perhaps (if he chooses to retire) will be coaching his final game tonight, has done a masterful job to get this crew to a Game 7 vs. Denver, but it all should come to an end tonight, especially given how well home teams do, generally, in Game 7s.  Historically, home teams are 104-28 straight-up.  And, dating back to 1991, home teams are 55-17 straight-up, and 41-29-2 ATS.  Lay the points with the Nuggets.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Los Angeles.  The Pirates will no doubt have a tall task tonight with Clayton Kershaw on the hill for Los Angeles.  But the Pirates' hurler, Joe Musgrove, has been every bit as good as Kershaw so far this season.  Musgrove has a 1.71 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP in his four starts.  Take Pittsburgh as a big underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Philadelphia. The 76ers easily handled the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, with a 4-1 series win.  But they now have to greatly step-up in class, and have been installed as a big underdog vs. Toronto.   Unfortunately for Philly, over the last 29 years, NBA underdogs of 5+ points have covered just 25% in Game 1 of the quarter-finals, if they were on a 3-game (or better) win streak (including 0-4 ATS the last 3 years).  Even worse:  the 76ers are 3-20 straight-up, and 7-16 ATS vs. Toronto in the last 23 meetings, including 1-11 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points.  Take the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox.  It's not surprising that a series between the Rays and Red Sox is featuring the first-and-last place teams in the AL East.  What is surprising is that it's the Rays who are sitting on top, and the Red Sox who are in the cellar.  This likely won't be the case all season (maybe not even a few weeks from now), but for now Tampa is no doubt enjoying its view from on high. RHP Charlie Morton is one of the major reasons why the Rays have been so successful.  Signed in December to a modest two-year free agent deal, Morton has gone 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in five starts so far.  Morton has been solid on the road this season and he's perfect at Fenway Park in his career, going 2-0 with a 3.48 ERA in two starts here.  The Rays are also 16-5 in their last 21 road games. Meanwhile, the injury bug has bit the Sox hard as they are down to a fourth-string 2B with Pedroia (knee), Nunez (back), and Holt (eye) all out of action.  Take Tampa.  ****Also, for this game, please ONLY list Tampa's starter, Morton.****  We will have a play on the Rays regardless of who starts for the Red Sox.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cleveland Indians.  RHP Shane Bieber made the Indians roster out of Spring Training but was initially shut out of the rotation when the season began.  But injuries to Mike Clevinger and Danny Salazar have opened up a slot for the 23-year-old.  So after one bullpen appearance, Bieber was thrust into a starting role and he tore through his first three starts, allowing just three earned runs in 19 innings before hitting a major speed bump in his last outing at home against Atlanta.  Bieber lasted just 2 1/3 innings in that one, allowing seven runs (five earned) on five hits in an 11-5 loss.  Bieber will have his hands full against a loaded Houston lineup, which is averaging 5.64 runs per game at home this season, to go with a .397 OBP and .315 BA. The Astros will go with RHP Brad Peacock, who has gotten his shot at the rotation due to the season-ending surgery for Lance McCullers.  Peacock is following up his solid 2018 with another good campaign so far (2-1 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in five games -- three starts).  The 'Stros are 6-2 in Peacock's last eight home starts and 9-3 in his last 12 following a team loss in their previous game.  Take Houston.

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Toronto Blue Jays.  There may have been some established names in the lineups in Game 1 of this series (K. Davis, M. Stroman, J. Smoak), but all eyes were on a 20-year-old with no Major League experience.  Vlad Guerrero, Jr. made his MLB debut last night for the hometown Jays and that's all anyone pretty much cared about in the stands.  So, now that he's already donned the uniform, things may be a little different this afternoon in Game 2.  LHP Brett Anderson gets his sixth start of the season for the A's and Anderson cruised through his first four starts before running into trouble in start number five.  The good news is that the last one was also against this Jays team so Anderson has a chance today to redeem himself as he faces them for the second straight time.  The Jays are hitting just .238 vs. lefties this season and their .630 OPS against southpaws is the worst such number in the league.  The A's are a super 29-14 (+10 games on the money line) in their last 43 games as a road favorite.  Take Oakland.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over San Francisco.  This is a great battle between lefties tonight in the Bay Area.  New York will hand the ball to James Paxton, while the Giants will start Madison Bumgarner.  Unfortunately for San Francisco, it's won just 14 of Bumgarner's last 43 starts.  And the Giants will surely have their hands full with Paxton, who comes into this game with a 14 scoreless innings streak. And Paxton struck out 24 batters in those 14 innings, while he only gave up 5 hits and 2 walks for a WHIP of 0.50 and a K:BB ratio of 12:1.  The Yankees are an awesome 32-13 when priced as a favorite of -150 or less.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.