Sports Picks & Predictions

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Los Angeles Angels. 2014 was the last year that the Angels finished with a better record than their cross-town rivals to the north. That season, the Dodgers were 94-68 and the Angels were 98-64. Here we are almost 10 years later and approaching the halfway point of this season and the Halos currently have the bragging rights over the more established L.A. team -- albeit slightly. Back in 2014, Clayton Kershaw was the Dodgers' ace and the best pitcher in the game. He's 35-years-old now but the future Hall of Fame southpaw can still get the job done. In 14 starts, Kershaw is 8-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.11 WHIP and those eight wins rank 2nd in the NL (behind Merrill Kelly's 9). Kershaw loves this SoCal series as in 15 career starts vs. the Angels he is 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, with 108 K's in just over 101 IP. The Dodgers are also 13-3 in the last 16 meetings with the Halos. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cincinnati Reds.  The Reds are going for a most improbable three-game sweep of the Astros this afternoon, having won the first two games of this series on Friday and Saturday.  This afternoon will be Houston's 22nd game in the last 23 days and you know what that means.  Time for a fill-in starter.  Enter 29-year-old RH Ronel Blanco.  In 11 games this season -- including two starts -- Blanco is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and he has 26 strikeouts in his 23 1/3 innings pitched so far.  Blanco may not stick in the rotation, but he can still be a valuable piece for a team that makes the post-season almost every year it seems.  29-year-old Luke Weaver will get his 11th start of the season today for the Reds.  The veteran RH has been bouncing around the league and struggling almost everywhere he pitches.  In 10 starts with the Reds, Weaver is 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA.  The Reds are 17-48 in their last 65 road games vs. teams with a winning record.  Take the 'Stros.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Toronto Blue Jays.  I played against Texas each of the last two days.  On Thursday, I took Shohei Ohtani and the Angels vs. the Rangers, and won 5-3.  And, then, last night, I backed the Blue Jays with Kevin Gausman, and won, 2-1.  But off their back to back losses, I'll now switch gears and take the homestanding Rangers.  Texas is 19-7 (+12.4 net games) in day games this season, compared to just 23-20 (+0.4 net games) at night.  And the Rangers are 6-1 after scoring less than 4 runs in back to back games.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers.  If anyone believed in Joe Ryan early in his baseball career it was probably Joe Ryan.  Selected by Tampa in the seventh round of the amateur draft back in 2018 but never having made it to the big league club, Ryan found himself traded by the Rays to the Twins for a 40-year-old Nelson Cruz in 2021.  Unlike the Rays who had young, talented pitching coming out of their ears, the Twins were desperate for some new blood in the rotation and Ryan made the squad almost immediately.  To say he hasn't looked back would be an understatement.  Last season, Ryan -- now 26 years old -- broke out and went 13-8 with a 3.55 ERA in 27 starts for Minny.  So far in 2023, Ryan is out to show that last year was no fluke as the RH is 7-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 13 starts covering 77 2/3 innings.  In five career starts vs. the Tigers covering just over 28 innings, Ryan is 4-0 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.85 WHIP.  Take the Twins.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers.  In some ways it's hard to believe that Kevin Gausman has been in the league for 11 seasons now.  Seems like only yesterday he was pitching for the Orioles.  But a journey consisting of four teams and two leagues since he was in Baltimore has landed the 32-year-old back in the AL East with the Blue Jays.  After a 12-win season in 2022, Gausman is having one of his best campaigns now -- his second in Toronto.  He's never led the league in strikeouts before but we're almost halfway through the season, and the hard-throwing RH is leading the pack with 117 punch-outs (in only 86 2/3 IP).  It seems that Gausman will throw in a clunker every fourth or fifth start, as he did in his last outing vs. the Twins.  He'll look to bounce back tonight against a very good Texas team.  In his last five starts vs. the Rangers, Gausman is 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA (and he won his only previous start here at Globe Life Field).  And Gausman's teams have won each of those previous five starts.  Meanwhile, the Rangers' Martin Perez has not found great success vs. Toronto, as his teams have won just three of his 10 career starts vs. the Blue Jays.  Finally, the Blue Jays are 7-2 in the last nine meetings with the Rangers.  Take Toronto.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Oakland A's.  The A's have now won seven in a row, following a 12-50 start to the season.  But I expect their win streak to be halted by Tyler Glasnow and the Rays tonight.  Glasnow's career ERA in his starts vs. Oakland is 2.13, with a 1.02 WHIP.  And the Rays are a solid 31-7 (+18.1 net games) as a favorite of -150 (or more) this season (and 109-40 (+34.8 net games) since 2021).  Glasnow's teams have been favored -200 (or more) in 11 of his career starts, and his teams have gone 10-1.  Meanwhile, Oakland is a wallet-breaking 16-48 (minus 12.1 net games) as an underdog of +200 (or more).  And it's 0-5 in Luis Medina's five career starts (his ERA is 8.14 in those games).  Take Tampa Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Detroit Tigers. Spencer Strider has made 13 starts this season, and has a 3.79 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, with 121 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings. And on the road, his ERA is 2.86. The Braves are 11-2 in his starts, and we'll take them to bounce back off Monday's frustrating loss in extra innings. Atlanta is a solid 71-28 (+24.1 net games) as a road favorite of -125 or more. And it's 13-2 behind Strider in his career when favored -200 (or more). Meanwhile, notwithstanding its 6-5 win to open this series, Detroit is still just 1-9 this month and is the worst run-scoring team in baseball (3.57 rpg). Take the Braves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 5 between Denver and Miami.  This series has generally been a low-scoring series.  Game 1 went UNDER the total by 21.5 points; Game 3 went UNDER the total by 9.5 points; and Game 4 went UNDER the total by 8.5 points.  The only game which went OVER the total was Game 2, and that barely went Over by just 2.5 points.  I'll look for yet another low-scoring game on this Monday, as the Heat's offense has been struggling mightily since its opening three wins in the Boston series (in which it averaged 120.6 ppg).  Over its last eight games, the Heat have averaged just 99.3 ppg, and seven of those eight games have sailed UNDER the total.  Denver's also played seven of its last 10 UNDER.  Take the Under in Game 5.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the New York Mets.  Mitch Keller has finally rewarded the patience of the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, and is having his best season yet.  In 13 starts, his ERA is 3.60 and his WHIP is 1.17.  And, most importantly, his team has won nine of those 13 starts.  Pittsburgh did lose Keller's last outing, 11-2, to the (now) red-hot A's, who have won a season-high four straight games.  But I like Keller to bounce back this afternoon vs. the Mets.  In his last start vs. New York at PNC Field, on Sept 6, 2022, Keller tossed six shutout innings, en route to an 8-2 Pirates victory.  The Mets have been dreadful as an underdog this season, as they're 3-14 (minus 10.7 net games).  And Mets starter, Carlos Carrasco, has an ugly 5.94 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his seven starts this year.  Even worse:  in Carrasco's career, when his teams have been an underdog, they've gone 17-39 (minus 18.4 net games), compared to 117-73 (+2.9 net games) as a favorite.  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is a solid 31-19 (+7.6 net games) as a favorite of -150 or less.  Take the Pirates.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  We played on Denver in Games 1 + 3 in this series (and passed Game 2).  But we will take Miami in Game 4, as Denver's a horrible road team off an ATS win.  And especially against foes that failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game, as Denver's 13-44-1 ATS its last 58.  Yikes!  Moreover, Miami is a solid 38-12 straight-up, and 31-16-3 ATS at home as a winning team off a straight-up home defeat.  And it's 56-34 ATS in the Playoffs when it didn't lead in a series.  Grab the points with Jimmy Butler & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Vegas Golden Knights.  Those rooting for close games in the Stanley Cup Finals are disappointed so far as the Knights took Games 1 and 2 convincingly -- by scores of 5-2 and 7-2.  But now the series shifts to South Florida and the Panthers and their faithful have some good news coming into Game 3.  For one thing, despite losing those first two games, Florida out-shot Vegas in both of those.  Second, this will be the first Finals games in South Florida since 1996 -- the Panthers' third year in the League -- and it will be the first in their current home -- FLA Live Arena.  Panthers Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has been solid for them all playoffs, but the veteran simply didn't have it in Game 2, so the coaches pulled him after he allowed four goals in the first 13 shots.  Expect Bobrovsky to be right back in net tonight and for the 19,000 home fans to give him a rousing ovation.  This has historically been a host-friendly series as the home team is now 11-1 in the last 12 meetings and Vegas is 1-4 in the last five here.  Take Florida.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, in Gm 2 of the double header, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Chicago White Sox.  We played on New York a couple nights ago, and lost a 3-2 decision, as the Yankees were held to just three hits.  We'll come right back with New York on Thursday, in this 2nd game of the DH. New York will hand the ball to 24-year-old rookie Randy Vasquez, who will be making his 2nd career start.  Vasquez allowed 2 runs in 4 2/3 innings vs. the Padres in his MLB debut last month.  He worked through four scoreless innings before a 2-run HR by Juan Soto in the 5th inning spoiled his outing.  New York is 76-48 (+ 12.9 net games) as a home favorite of -150 or less, while Chicago is 38-61 (minus 15.6 net games) as an underdog of +150 or less.  Take the Yankees.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Milwaukee Brewers.  This is the Orioles' first visit to Milwaukee since 2017 and so far the first two games have been all Brewers (including a 10-2 blowout last night).  There's no question the O's miss their lead-off man and catalyst, CF Cedric Mullins, who hasn't played since May 29 due to a groin injury which will keep him out for an extended period of time.  Still, the new-look Orioles have shown they can compete with the league's best this year thanks to youngsters like Adley Ruschman and Gunnar Henderson.  But not all of the young talent is on the offensive side.  Baltimore's youthful pitching has stepped up too.  Today it will be 2nd-year RH Kyle Bradish getting his 11th start of the season.  Over his first 10 starts, the 26-year-old is 2-2 with a 4.13 ERA and a strikeout rate of almost eight per game.  Bradish has thrived in these situations as in seven career inter-league starts he is 2-1 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 44 K's with 10 BBs in 37 2/3 innings.  The O's are also 22-8 in their last 30 games after allowing five or more runs in their previous game, and 34-13 (+18.6 net games) as a favorite of -150 (or less).  Take Baltimore.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets on the moneyline in Game 3, to win straight-up.  The Nuggets fell, 111-108, at home in Game 2.  But we'll take them to win Wednesday's game, straight-up, as Denver is 19-5 (79%) straight up as a single-digit road favorite off a loss (compared to 29-20 (59%) off a win).  Meanwhile, Miami is 5-13 straight-up as a home dog of +4 points or less, including 1-5 straight-up off a win.  And home dogs are 9-30 straight-up in the playoffs in Game 3 of an NBA series, including 0-11 straight-up when the point spread was in the narrow +2.5 to +3.5-point range.  We'll take the Nuggets on the moneyline.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Chicago White Sox.  At the end of April, the Yankees' Clarke Schmidt was 0-3 with a 6.84 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP.  And the Yankees had lost five of his six starts.  But Schmidt was much better in the month of May.  He made six starts, and allowed more than two runs in just one of those starts -- a horrible outing on May 14 vs. Tampa, in which he gave up 7 runs over 4 2/3 innings.  Still, even with that dismal performance, his ERA for May was just 3.52, and his WHIP was 1.36.  We did play against Schmidt and the Yankees in his last start, and won on George Kirby and the Mariners.  But it took 10 innings for Seattle to score a run, and win 1-0.  So, Schmidt did little wrong, as he pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings, for the best start of his caeer.  We'll take New York today, and go against Lucas Giolito and the White Sox.  Chicago is an awful 1-13 its last 14 as an underdog with Giolito on the hill.  And Giolito's career ERA vs. New York in his starts is 6.30, with a 1.80 WHIP.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Vegas Golden Knights.  The Panthers lost Game 1 by a 5-2 score, on Saturday.  But Vegas also had good fortune, as three shots by the Panthers clanged off the goal post in the first two periods, when the game was still in the balance.  We'll take Florida to bounce back tonight, as it's 59-36 (+8.5 net games) off a loss, and 18-9 (+7.9 net games) after allowing 5+ goals.  And Paul Maurice's troops have won all three Game 2s this playoffs season.  Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are a soft 47-46 (but minus 20.6 net games) off back to back games where they scored more than 3 goals, and 13-14 (minus 10.2 net games) off back to back blowout wins by more than 2 goals.  Take Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Guardians.  The Twins may not win the World Series this season.  Heck, they may not even win the AL Central crown.  But you'd be hard-pressed to find a more consistent 1-2-3 top of the rotation than their combination of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan.  Throw in Bailey Ober as a No. 4 and you have as solid a rotation as you can have these days.  It's the main reason Minnesota has the second-lowest team ERA in the Majors so far (3.44).  This afternoon it will be Ryan's turn.  The 26-year-old RH is having an All Star-caliber first half, going 7-2 with a 2.77 ERA, 10.5 strikeout rate and 5.85 K:BB ratio.  He put up a rare clunker of a start last time out against the Astros in Houston.  Look for Ryan to bounce back this afternoon as in 17 career daytime starts, he is 10-4 with a 2.51 ERA (vs. 12-7 and 3.96 in 26 starts under the lights).  Even better:  in six starts against the Guardians, Ryan is 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.80 WHIP with 30 strikeouts and four walks in 37 2/3 IP.  Take the Twins.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Vegas Golden Knights.  The Panthers were almost eliminated from the playoffs with 1 second to go in their opening-round Game 5 vs. Boston.  The Bruins were already up 3 games to 1, and the game was tied at 3 when Boston forward Brad Marchand skated in on Sergei Bobrovsky.  But the 2-time Vezina Trophy winner made the save (one of 43 for the game), and the Panthers won, 4-3, at 6:05 into the overtime session.  That improbable victory (Boston was a -270 favorite in the Game 4) triggered an even more improbable streak by the 8th-seeded Panthers.  Florida has now won 11 of its last 12 games (vs. the top shelf Bruins, Maple Leafs and Hurricanes).  And the Bruins, Leafs and 'Canes owned the 1st, 2nd and 4th-best records in the regular season.  Here, the Panthers will attempt to upset the team with the 5th-best regular season record.  Vegas's path to the finals (by virtue of its #1 seed in the West) was understandably easier, and it ousted the league's 6th (Edmonton), 8th (Dallas) and 14th-best (Jets) teams to earn this berth in the Stanley Cup.  Many bettors will shy away from the red-hot Panthers, under the belief that the 10 days since their last game will have cooled off any momentum.  But I've never been on that side of the "rest vs rust" debate in pro sports.  Indeed, we just saw the Denver Nuggets (who had the exact same amount of time off before their NBA Game 1) annihilate the Miami Heat, 104-93.  So, I'm perfectly fine with the Panthers' long layoff, and don't believe we'll see any "rust" tonight.  The Golden Knights do come into this game off a 6-0 blowout win to close out the Dallas Stars, but are a soft 7-11 (minus 11.5 net games) following a win by more than 4 goals, and are 23-22 (minus 8.5 net games) off a shutout win.  Take the underdog Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Miami Heat.  Kudos to Miami, which knocked out the last two Eastern Conference Champs (Milwaukee, Boston).  Unfortunately, knocking out Denver will be most difficult.  The Nuggets have home court advantage, and are 42-7 at home this season.  They're also 30-17-2 ATS at Ball Arena, and have covered the spread by an average of 3.34 ppg.  We'll fade Miami in this Game 1, as Eastern Conference teams are 1-13 straight-up, and 2-12 ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals when playing away from home.  And Denver is 23-11 SU and 25-9 ATS vs. Miami in the last 34 meetings, including 5-0 SU/ATS the last five here, in Denver.  And Denver won their last five home games vs. the Heat by an average of 15 ppg.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 7 between Boston and Miami.  We played on the Under in each of Games 5 and Game 6, and got the $$$ in both.  And we'll come right back with the Under in this Game 7, on Memorial Day.  As I mentioned in those previous write-ups, the Celtics have gone under 17-5 in elimination games, including the last 10 straight.  And #2-seeded teams are 21-3 under in their last 24 elimination games, including 12 straight.  Miami, meanwhile, will be playing its first elimination game in the Playoffs this season.  And it's 16-9 under in elimination games.  We'll ride with the under once again.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Miami Marlins.  Will 2023 be the year that Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani finally take the Angels to the promised land?  Trout just passed the great Joe DiMaggio on the career home run list and Ohtani is, well, doing what Ohtani does.  The difference -- at least so far -- is that the Angels (eight games under .500 in 2021 and 16 games under last season) are 28-24 at roughly the 1/3 point of the season.  The bad news is that they not only have to deal with the Astros this season, but also the Rangers who might just be the best team in the AL when all is said and done.  But Ohtani will take the mound tonight for his 11th start of the season.  The 28-year-old Japanese superstar has done little wrong, posting a 5-1 record with a 3.05 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with a career-best 12.2 strikeout rate in 59 innings.  In seven career inter-league starts, Ohtani is 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA.  Despite the Marlins' win last night they are 1-4 in the last five meetings here in Anaheim.  Take the Angels.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 6 between Boston and Miami.  We played on the UNDER in Games 4 + 5, and will come right back with the UNDER here, in Game 6.  After dropping the first three games (all of which went OVER the total), Boston has now staved off elimination twice -- keyed by its 3-point defense -- and each of those two games went under the total.  So, after getting torched by the Heat in Game 3 (128 points, including 19-of-35 from 3-point territory), Boston has now held Miami's offense to under 100 in each of the past two games (99, 97), as Miami's converted just 17 of 55 from long distance the past two games.  The Celtics are now 23-10 UNDER their last 33 elimination games, including 9-0 UNDER their last 9.  We'll look for that streak to hit 10 straight on Saturday.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Miami Heat.  The Celtics are down 3-games-to-1 in this Best-of-7 series, so tonight's game (much like Tuesday's game) is a 'must-win' for Boston.  The Heat were in a similar position vs. Milwaukee, and they upset the Bucks, 128-126, in overtime, as a 13.5-point underdog.  But in 7-game series with a 2-2-1-1-1 format, home teams have typically done well in Game 5 when down 3-games-to-1, as they've cashed 61.7% since 1990.  And, regardless of series format, or venue, teams down 3-1 have cashed 56.5%, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were a 2-seed, and favored by 4+ points.  Take Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on Game 5 between Boston and Miami to go UNDER the total.  We played on the Under in Game 4, and narrowly won when the teams combined for 215 points, which was 1.5 points less than the total.  We'll come right back with the UNDER in this game, as it falls into a 113-54 totals system of mine.  Even better:  #2-seeded teams have gone UNDER 19 of their last 22 elimination games, including 10-0 UNDER their last 10.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Toronto Blue Jays. After scoring just 16 runs in five straight losses to the Yankees, Orioles and -- in the first game of this series -- Rays, one had to wonder if Toronto's powerful offense would ever surface again this season. Well the answer was yes and the date was Monday, May 23. In Game 2 of this series, the Jays lineup exploded for 20 runs on 27 hits in a thrashing of the team with the best record in baseball. Hopefully Toronto enjoyed the offensive outburst last night because it could be hard to come anywhere close to those numbers tonight against one of the best starters in baseball. When you look at his record, it's hard to believe that 26-year-old LHP Shane McClanahan has not won his last two starts. In 10 outings, McClanahan is 7-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 57 innings. McClanahan already owns a win against the Jays this season (April 16 in an 8-1 rout) and lifetime he is 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA against them in seven starts covering 37 1/3 IP. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Miami.  The Celtics are down 3-games-to-none, but I don't believe they'll go down without a fight.  Indeed, before Boston's 128-102 loss to Miami on Sunday, it had only lost by 20+ points five times in the last two seasons.  And the Celtics bounced back from each of those blowout losses to go 5-0 SU/ATS in their next game (winning by an average of 13.2 ppg).  Boston is also 9-1 ATS in the Playoffs when priced from -3.5 to +7.5 if it was off back to back SU/ATS losses, and not up in a Playoff series.  And it's 20-4 ATS away from home in the Playoffs if it didn't lead in the series, and failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points in its previous game.  Take the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat to go UNDER the total.  The Celtics gave up 128 to Miami in Game 3, and were blown out by 26 points.  Off that defensive debacle, I expect a lower scoring game tonight.  The UNDER has gone 55-34 in the last 89 post-season games when it involved a team which gave up 115+ points in its previous game.  And Boston is 13-6 UNDER off an upset playoff defeat.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Florida Panthers.  The Hurricanes are down 2-games-to-none, but the series has been exceptionally close.  Game 1 went into the 4th overtime, while Game 2 was decided in the 1st overtime.  And neither team has led by 2 or more goals at any point in time in the first two games, covering a span of over 201 minutes.  Off back to back overtime losses at home, we'll take the Hurricanes to bounce back on this Monday night.  Carolina is a solid 25-11 its last 36 off back to back losses, and 29-20 on the road off 2 home losses.  Meanwhile, the Panthers are an ugly 3-12 off back to back 1-goal road wins.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays.  If the Blue Jays were wondering going into their weekend series whether the Orioles were for real, well they found out the hard way.  Baltimore swept Toronto over three games in Canada using their regular formula of timely hitting and great relief pitching.  The good news for the Jays however is that despite the dry weekend, they are still three games above .500 and within striking distance -- albeit in last place -- in the ultra-tough AL East.  They have a real chance to cut into that deficit this week with a trip to Tampa for four games against the first-place Rays.  After successful stints with the A's and Mets, RHP Chris Bassitt has landed in Toronto where he is continuing his run of success as a starter.  In nine starts, Bassitt is 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and a complete game shutout to his credit.  In three career games vs. the Rays -- two starts -- Bassitt has a 2.30 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  Toronto is also 4-1 in the last five meetings with Tampa.  Take the Jays.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Miami Heat.  The Celts have their proverbial back against the wall after losing both games at home to start this series.  We'll fade Miami as a home underdog, as home dogs have covered just 33% in the Playoffs since 1991 off back to back road underdog (or PK'em) wins.  Even better:  Game 3 home teams have gone just 25-44 SU and 28-41 ATS off an upset win as a 5.5-point (or greater) underdog in Game 2.  Finally, the Celtics are an awesome 15-1-1 ATS as a favorite of -2 (or more) points off back to back upset defeats.  And Miami is 17-37 ATS at home vs. a revenge-minded foe off a straight-up loss.  Lay the points.

At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 3 between Boston and Miami.  The 2nd game of this Eastern Conference Finals barely went over the total of 215 (by one point), as Miami won, 111-105, as a 10-point road underdog.  We'll look for Sunday's game to go under the total, as Boston has gone UNDER 67% since 1991 as a road favorite off back to back losses, when the line was greater than 195 points.  Moreover, it is 10-2 UNDER off an upset home playoff defeat.  And it's 21-8 UNDER in the Playoffs when the O/U line is 183+ points, if Boston is off back to back defeats.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Vegas Golden Knights.  The Knights won Game 1 in this Western Conference finals in what was one of the closest matches of the post-season.  These two teams went into overtime tied at 3-3 with the exact same number of shots on goal (36).  It didn't take long for Vegas to end it and send their fans home happy.  But the Stars know all about this scenario and it likely doesn't bother them one bit.  In each of the first two rounds, they dropped the opening game (to the Wild and then the Kraken) and in both cases they came back with an emphatic victory in Game 2 to even things up. The Stars will put Game 1 in their rear view mirror, and take confidence from the fact they went 3-0 vs. Vegas in the regular season.  The Stars are 14-5 on the road off a loss, and 6-0 their last six when trailing in a playoff series.  And the underdog is also 6-2 in the last eight meetings of these two.   Take Dallas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles.  It's been five years since Kevin Gausman pitched wearing an Orioles uniform.  The 32-year-old RH was Baltimore's first round draft pick in 2012 as a 21-year-old out of LSU and he made his MLB debut against the Blue Jays almost exactly 10 years ago (May 23, 2013).  In those 10 years, Gausman has become one of the most consistent starters in the game despite only being selected to one All Star Team during that time.  He'll face his old team today for only the third time with both of those previous starts having come last season -- his first as a member of the Blue Jays.  After winning four of his six starts in the month of April, the Jays have now lost each of Gausman's three starts this month (vs. the Red Sox, Phillies, and Yankees).  He'll look to bounce back in this afternoon game and that could be the key today as Gausman's career ERA during the day is almost a half-run lower than it is under the lights.  Toronto is also 21-9 in its last 30 home games vs. RH starters.  Take the Jays.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver.  It's been a case of "close, but no cigar" for the Los Angeles Lakers in this series.  They're down 2 games to none but haven't lost against the point spread in either of the first two games.  We'll lay the points with the Purple and Gold, and go against the #1-seeded Nuggets.  For technical support, consider that NBA #1 seeds have covered just 30 of 80 when up 2-games-to-none, and not laying more than 4 points.  And LeBron James' teams have gone 56-29 ATS in the Playoffs when favored by 2 or more points, if they did not have a series lead.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Florida Panthers.  If you were wondering what the Panthers were going to do for an encore after upsetting both the Bruins and Maple Leafs, the answer is, well, something pretty spectacular.  On Thursday night, the -- once again -- underdog Panthers prevailed in the sixth-longest game in Stanley Cup Playoff history when Matthew Tkachuk scored at 19:47 of the fourth overtime period here in Raleigh to win Game 1, 3-2.  If there's one thing the 'Canes won't have any trouble getting tonight in Game 2 it's motivation after that marathon loss.  It was Florida's fifth comeback win of the playoffs, and with the victory, the Panthers became just the third team in NHL history to win each of their first five games that required overtime in a single postseason.  Carolina out-played and out-shot Florida in Game 1 and should be poised for a big bounce back tonight.  The 'Canes are 9-4 in their last 13 revenging a close loss vs opponent of one goal or less.  Take Carolina.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Dallas Stars.  The Knights have made it to their fourth NHL semi-finals in their six-season franchise history -- truly a remarkable feat.  They also finished first in their division for the fourth time.  In less time than a two-term Presidency, Vegas has assembled not only one of the best teams in the league, but has also shown that T-Mobile Arena is one of the most exciting venues in pro Sports (and one of the toughest for opposing teams).  This series is not only a chance for the Knights to earn another shot at an NHL Finals -- but also a shot at some revenge.  It was Dallas which knocked them out when they appeared in the semi-finals in 2020.  And while the Stars have beaten the Knights the last four times they played, it's Vegas which is on a roll right now, having beaten the Oilers in six games.  The Knights are also 4-0 in their last four games vs. teams from the Central Division.  Take Vegas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Miami.  The Celts lost here, at home, 123-116, on Wednesday to Erik Spoelstra's Heat.  And that was Boston's 3rd straight defeat at the hands of Miami.  We'll take Boston to bounce back from that loss, as it's an awesome 62-29 ATS when playing with double-revenge, if it failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in the prior meeting.  And it's 71-41-2 ATS off a home loss, if favored vs. a foe off a win.  Finally, Boston's a reliable 10-1 ATS its last 11 off an upset playoff defeat.  Lay the points with Jayson Tatum & Co. in Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Colorado Rockies.  Martin Perez began his MLB career at the age of 21 with the Rangers and he stayed with the team for seven seasons.  Then after stints with the Twins and Red Sox, Perez came back to Arlington 10 years after he made that debut.  In his 2022 campaign -- his first year back with Texas -- all the veteran southpaw starter did was have the best season of his career with a 12-8 record, career-best 2.89 ERA, while making the All Star team for the first time.  Now back for a second season with his old club, Perez is out to prove that 2022 was not a fluke.  In eight starts, he is 4-1 with a 4.25 ERA in just over 42 innings.  His elevated ERA is mostly due to one poor start in Anaheim.  And at home this season Perez is 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA.  With just two of his eight starts coming here at Globe Life Field so far, Perez is obviously hoping to see more home outings in his future.  The Rockies are 3-7 in their last 10 interleague road games, while the Rangers are 5-0 in their last five immediately after allowing five or more runs.  Take Texas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 8:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Florida Panthers.  Both of these teams have had a long time to rest and prepare for this Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals.  Florida ousted Toronto last Friday, in Game 5, by a 3-2 score.  Carolina also took five games to send New Jersey packing, as it won its quarterfinal Game 5 last Thursday, 3-2.  The Hurricanes have been getting terrific goaltending from Frederik Andersen.  In his last six games, he's notched five wins, and allowed 1 goal four times, and just 2 goals in another.  Unlike Carolina, which is 108-52 (+24.6 net games) off a win (and 58-23 (+17.1 net games) its last 81 off back to back wins), the Panthers are a poor 22-27 (minus 16.3 net games) off a win this season.  The Hurricanes are also 9-4 their last 13 home meetings vs. Florida, and 29-4 at home off back to back games where it didn't allow more than 2 goals.  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Texas Rangers.  When a 23-year-old rookie pitcher named Spencer Strider punched out over 200 hitters in just 131 2/3 IP last season, people wondered if it was a fluke.  After all, Strider was originally a 35th round draft pick in 2017 (later a 4th round pick out of Clemson) and wasn't considered a top prospect.  But this season, the Braves' ace is showing that those numbers are the kind we will need to get used to.  After eight starts covering just under 47 innings, Strider leads the league with a 15.2 K rate and his 2.51 ERA is even lower than the number he put up in 2022 when he finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting.  In his last start, Strider whiffed 12 batters in just 6 1/3 innings but got no run support from his offense against the Blue Jays in Toronto.  Tonight will be his third straight inter-league start and his first start against the Rangers (he has 3 2/3 scoreless relief innings against them).  The Braves are 12-4 in Strider's last 16 starts after he allowed one run or less in his last outing.  Take Atlanta.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:07 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees.  The Blue Jays are a team which takes two steps forward and one step back.  After sweeping three games against the Pirates, the Jays lost a two-game series to the Phillies.  Then they swept the Braves over the weekend (three more wins).  Last night, they welcomed their division rival for a crucial four-game series while riding high.  So how did they do in Game 1?  Not so good.  The Yankees beat them Monday, 7-4.  Enter RH ace Kevin Gausman for Game 2.  Through eight starts, Gausman has a 3.38 ERA and a league-leading 67 strikeouts (vs. only seven walks) resulting in a career-best 9.57 K:BB ratio.  But he -- like his team -- is struggling with consistency logging a 2-3 record so far.  In his career, Gausman has nine wins vs. the Yanks (to go with seven losses) and that's the most victories he has against anyone in the American League.  Gausman didn't allow a run on three hits in six IP in his last outing but still came away with a no-decision.  The Jays are 11-5 in Gausman's last 16 starts after he didn't allow a run in his previous outing.  And the Yankees are a dreadful 3-12 in Domingo German's nighttime starts, and 0-3 in his last three starts vs. the Blue Jays.  Take Toronto.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Baltimore Orioles.  We've all but run out of superlatives to describe what Angels' superstar Shohei Ohtani has done since he came over from Japan.  The 28-year-old from Oshu is the greatest two-way player in Baseball history -- although that list is pretty short -- and he likely isn't done re-writing the record books as he progresses through his sixth MLB season. He'll get his ninth start of the season -- his first against this strong and youthful Orioles lineup.  Through eight starts, Ohtani is 4-1 with a stellar 2.74 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with a league-leading 12.9 strikeout rate.  The O's took another series over the weekend -- their 10th series win this season -- against the Pirates, and their 26-14 start is one of the best in franchise history through the first 40 games.  Whether the upstart O's can keep it going remains to be seen, but the players, coaches, and fans will enjoy the ride as long as it lasts.  The Angels are 6-1 in Ohtani's last seven starts, and 36-17 (+7.5 net games) behind Ohtani as a favorite (compared to 6-12 (minus 4.9 games) as an underdog.  Take Los Angeles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Vegas Golden Knights.  While almost none of the other second-round series in the NHL playoffs have gone according to plan, this one has for the most part.  The Knights and Oilers traded Game 2 and 3 losses at home, but the home teams got back on track in Games 4 and 5 and as a result, Vegas is now one win away from returning to the Conference Finals for the third time in its six-year history.  Jack Eichel was the hero in Game 5, tallying three points to get the Knights the win.  But the Oilers can feel good about the fact that they put 35 shots on goal in that game, four more than they allowed their opponent.  And Captain Connor McDavid appears to be heating up as he had a pair of goals on Friday but his team fell just short in the 4-3 defeat on the Strip.  At home it should be a different story as the Oilers are 12-3 in their last 15 games here at Rogers Centre.  Edmonton is also 26-8 in its last 34 games vs. Western Conference foes.  Take the Oilers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

On Sunday, at 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston Celtics/Philadelphia 76ers Game 7.  These two Atlantic Division rivals played an exceptionally low scoring Game 6, won by Boston, 95-86.  We played on the under in that game, and easily won, as it went UNDER the total of 210.5 by 29.5 points.  Understandably, the number for this Game 7 has been set lower by the oddsmakers, but it's still too high.  Philadelphia has gone 31-17 UNDER away from home vs. division rivals, while Boston has gone 19-10 Under at home vs. division rivals when the O/U line was less than 213.  We'll once again take the UNDER in this rivalry playoff game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Chicago White Sox.  No doubt, Astros fans were sorry to see multiple Cy Young winner and future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander exit.  But every time young Hunter Brown takes the mound, they must be feeling a bit better.  While Verlander is the past of this team, Brown -- and a host of other young arms -- is the future.  The 24-year-old RHP put up a 0.89 ERA in a seven game "teaser" last season and while nobody was quite sure what role he would take on, when Verlander left via free agency, it meant that Brown would be given every chance to prove himself as a regular starter.  And prove himself he has so far as the former 5th round pick is 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA in seven starts covering 39 innings coming into this afternoon.  78-year-old manager Tony La Russa is gone but that hasn't changed the White Sox fortunes.  In fact, the Sox are having one of their worst campaigns in recent memory so far (14-27).  Of note, Chicago is 5-16 in its last 21 games vs. teams with a winning record.  Take the Astros.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Kansas City.  The Royals will start southpaw Josh Taylor, who has a 6.55 ERA this season, with a 1.36 WHIP.  His last (and only) MLB start was on August 31, 2019, as a member of the Red Sox.  All of his other 129 career appearances were in relief.  Boston lost to the Los Angeles Angels, 10-4, in that game.  This will be former Cy Young Award-Winner, Corbin Burnes' 3rd start vs. the Royals.  And he was great over his previous two, as he allowed 2 runs over 12 innings (1.50 ERA), with 18 strikeouts, and just 1 walk, and 6 hits (0.58 WHIP).  The Royals are an ugly 20-64 (minus 26.7 net games) as an underdog of +150 (or more), while Milwaukee is a stellar 101-31 (plus 29.1 net games) as a favorite of -200 (or more), including 17-4 when Burnes is on the mound.   

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Florida Panthers.  The clock has yet to strike midnight on the Cinderella Florida Panthers' playoff run, even if they couldn't finish the deal at home on Wednesday.  The Maple Leafs squeaked out a 2-1 road victory with some stingy defensive play to stay alive in this series and bring it back to Toronto for another must-win game.  You can bet that Scotiabank Arena will be very loud tonight because a victory in Game 5 makes this a brand new series.  The Panthers know they can win in Toronto -- they took Games 1 and 2 here -- but the Leafs did not lose three straight home games the entire regular season so they have to feel pretty good about their chances in this home revenge situation.  The Leafs gave rookie goalie Joseph Woll his first postseason start on Wednesday and he was more than up to the task, stopping 24 of 25 shots.  Look for the 24-year-old to be back in net tonight.  Despite wins in the first two games of this series, Florida is still just 4-9 in the last 13 meetings in Toronto.  Take the Leafs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Tampa Bay.  We played on the Rays last night, and got an easy 8-2 win behind Drew Rasmussen against Domingo German.  Rasmussen outdueled German by tossing 7 scoreless innings.  Tonight, though, the pitching advantage goes to New York.  Gerrit Cole will take the mound for the Pinstripes, and he's pitching like he wants to win his first Cy Young Award.  In eight starts, he's 5-0, with a 2.09 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.  And New York is 7-1 in those eight games.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Phoenix game.  The Suns were blown out, 118-102, on Tuesday.  And that Game 5 went Under the total by 7.5 points.  We'll look for another low-scoring game in Phoenix, on Thursday, as Playoff games with O/U lines > 226 have gone UNDER 57.2%.  Moreover, the Suns have gone 12-7-1 UNDER following a 15-point (or worse) blowout defeat.  And they've also gone 12-6 UNDER in the Playoffs following a straight-up loss.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Philadelphia.  The Celtics were upset at home, 115-103, as an 8-point home favorite on Tuesday.  We'll take Boston to bounce back, as it's 34-10 ATS following an upset loss to a division rival, if Boston was favored by 4+ points in that defeat.  And the Celtics are also 19-3 ATS away from home in the Playoffs, if they didn't lead in the series, and were off a home game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points.  Take Boston.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston/Philadelphia game.  The Celtics were a big favorite in this series vs. Philly.  But unless they win the next two games, they'll be sent packing by James Harden & Co.  Boston surrendered 116 & 115 in the last two games.  I look for the Celts to play a much better defensive game tonight, and for this to go under the total.  Indeed, Boston has gone under 7-1 following a loss in the Playoffs, if it was facing elimination.  And it's 6-1 UNDER off back to back Playoff losses.  Take the Under.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the New York Yankees.  Tonight's game is a rematch of the pitchers' duel 5 days ago, when the Yankees won, 3-2, at Tampa.  Domingo German gave up 2 runs over 5 innings, while Drew Rasmussen actually held the Yankees scoreless over 5 2/3 innings (and gave up just 2 hits).  But Tampa's bullpen gave up 3 runs in the 8th inning to blow a 2-0 lead.  We'll take the Rays tonight, as Rasmussen has been sensational vs. the Yankees in his 2 career starts vs. them.  In 11 2/3 innings, Rasmussen has given up 0 runs, 8 hits, 2 walks, and has struck out 16.  In contrast, German has a 5.44 ERA in his 10 career starts vs. the Rays, with a 1.33 WHIP.  And the Yankees are a poor 3-11 in his last 14 nighttime starts.  Take Tampa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Vegas Golden Knights.  After the Oilers took Game 2 in Vegas in dominant fashion last Saturday, the Knights returned the favor on Monday night in Western Canada.  That sets up a Game 4 tonight at Rogers Place that is critically important for the Oilers.  The days of Wayne Gretzky in Edmonton have given way to the days of Connor McDavid, who has yet to carry his team to a Stanley Cup like Gretzky did four times, despite being the best player on the planet.  Both starting goaltenders on Monday were replaced, but while Edmonton's Stuart Skinner took a seat due to his sub-par play, Vegas starter Laurent Brossoit exited in the first period due to a lower body injury.  Skinner should benefit tonight from getting the hook while Brossoit's availability is unknown.  Regardless of who the Knights put out there, expect the Oilers to come out firing tonight in an effort to even this series.  Despite the loss here on Monday, the Oilers are still 11-3 in their last 14 home games.  Take Edmonton.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:00 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Los Angeles.  The defending champs find themselves down 3-games-to-1 in this 'must-win' Game 5.  We'll lay the points with the Warriors, as NBA defending champs have covered 61% since 1990 in Games 5, 6 or 7 of a playoff series when facing elimination.  Even better:  the Warriors have covered 72.7% in the NBA Playoffs since 1990 when playing with double-revenge, while the Lakers are 0-8 straight-up, and 1-6-1 ATS in the Playoffs since 1990 when installed as an underdog of +5 (or more) points vs. a double-revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with Golden State.

At 10:00 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 5 between Golden State and Los Angeles.  The Warriors mustered just 101 points in defeat on Monday night.  That was the 2nd straight Under in this series, and we'll look for another relatively low-scoring game on Wednesday, as Golden State has now gone under 33-9 in the Playoffs following a loss in which it scored less than 110 points.  And the Under also falls into 141-85 and 201-114 Totals systems of mine.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the San Diego Padres.  The Twins lost, 6-1, last night to these Padres -- their 3rd straight loss -- and dropped to 10-7 at home on the season.  We'll take Minnesota to bounce back tonight behind Pablo Lopez, who has a solid 54:10 K:BB ratio, and 1.09 WHIP on the season.  Minnesota has been installed as a small favorite, which bodes well, given the Twins are a solid 49-21 (+13.9 net games) as a home favorite.  Even better:  the Twins are a super 15-6 (+10.7 net games) off 3+ losses.  Meanwhile, the Padres are a dreadful 129-127 (but minus 44.2 net games) vs. righties, and 46-66 (minus 8.5 net games) as an underdog.

At 7:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Miami Heat.  Erik Spoelstra's men covered the point spread for the 7th straight time on Monday, when they defeated New York, 109-101, as a 4.5-point favorite.  But we'll go against Miami on Wednesday, as NBA Underdogs of +2 (or more) points, with a win percentage less than .666, have gone 37-73-3 ATS after covering the spread in 7+ games.  Lay the points with New York.

At 7:10 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Florida Panthers.  The Leafs never thought they would be down 3-games-to-none in this quarterfinal series, but that's the situation.  We'll take Toronto in this do-or-die Game 4, as they're 46-21 when playing with revenge; 25-13 (+11.6 net games) when trailing in a playoff series; and 26-9 (+12.0 net games) off a loss this season.  And, notwithstanding the Panthers' current hot streak, they're still just 22-26 (minus 12.8 net games) off a win this season.  Take Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New Jersey Devils over the Carolina Hurricanes.  The Devils knew they needed to send a message at home on Sunday in Game 3 of this series.  After all, they had pretty much been embarrassed and run out of Raleigh in Games 1 and 2 by being outscored by a total of 11-2.  They won Game 3 alright but what they did at home on Sunday may have even surprised the Devils themselves.  New Jersey jumped out to a 4-0 lead less than a minute into the second period and never looked back, taking a lopsided 8-4 decision.  And the eight goals came from seven different players, something that has to delight the team and the coaches. The important thing for tonight's Game 4 in the Meadowlands is that the Devils keep it going and not have a letdown after that huge effort.  They know they can't afford to go back to Carolina down 3-1 so look for the Devils to keep up the pressure.  With the Game 3 win the Devils are now 8-2 in their last 10 home games.  Take New Jersey.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Los Angeles won Game 3 here, at Crypto.com Arena, 127-97.  We cashed the Under in that game, but will focus on the Side in this Game 4.  We'll grab the points with the Warriors, and go against a Lakers team which is an awful 14-51 ATS as a home favorite off a win, when playing a revenge-minded foe it defeated by more than 7 points in the previous meeting.  Additionally, the Warriors are 58-39 ATS off a SU/ATS loss when playing with revenge.  And, finally, NBA road teams have cashed 73 percent since 1990 after losing a playoff game in which they scored less than 99, and surrendered more than 121.  Take the Warriors + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Miami Marlins.  He may not be a household name because of the team he pitches for, but if Zac Gallen is not a top 10 Major League starter, he's awfully close.  The 27-year-old RH broke out in a big way last season with a 12-4 record in 31 starts and a 2.54 ERA and 192 strikeouts in 184 IP.  And he did all that on a team which was 14 games under .500.  To few people's surprise, the D-Backs appear to be a much better team this season so the sky may be the limit for Gallen who already is 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA and a league-best 11.4 K:BB ratio in seven starts covering just under 43 innings.  He'll go for victory number five tonight at home against the 17-18 Marlins.  How much does Gallen love pitching here?  In three starts at Chase Field covering just over 20 innings he is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 34 strikeouts with only one walk.  That's about as close to perfection as you can get.  The Marlins are 5-13 in the last 28 meetings with the Diamondbacks in Arizona.  Take the D-Backs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Florida Panthers.  People were wondering what the Panthers would do for an encore after one of the biggest first round upsets in NHL history.  Well, the answer in this quarterfinal round against the heavily-favored Maple Leafs appears to be -- exactly the same thing they were doing against the Bruins.  With only one day off after their historic Game 7 win over Boston, the Panthers went into Toronto and beat the Leafs in Game 1 and then did it again on Thursday.  Now they come back to South Florida to try to take a near-insurmountable 3-0 lead.  But the Leafs are a dangerous team which won't go quietly.  Despite losing Game 2, 3-2, Toronto out-shot Florida by a 37-29 margin.  And the Leafs went ahead 2-0 in the first five minutes on Thursday before giving up three unanswered goals.  The road team is 5-0 in the last five meetings of these two and the Leafs are 26-8 (+13.5 net games) in their last 34 off a loss.  Meanwhile, Florida is an ugly 6-13 (minus 8.6 net games) off 3 road wins.  Take Toronto.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Boston.  The Celtics blew out Philly for the 2nd straight game on Friday, as they won 114-102, to take a 2-games-to-1 series lead.  We'll fade the Celtics in Game 4, as they're 0-8 ATS on the road in the playoffs off back to back SU/ATS wins, if they won their previous game by more than 11 points.  Even better:  home teams off a loss have cashed 65.4% since 1990 in the 2nd of back to back games vs the same foe, if each game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 3 points or less.  Finally, Philly is 12-0 ATS its last 12 off back to back losses, if it wasn't favored by 8+ points.  Take the 76ers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the New Jersey Devils over the Carolina Hurricanes.  If the Devils need any extra motivation coming into their 1st quarterfinal home playoff game in over 10 years, all they need to do is put up a poster with the scores from the first two games with the Hurricanes in Raleigh on the locker room wall.  It was all 'Canes on Wednesday and Friday as they treated themselves to some Carolina home cooking with 5-1 and 6-1 dominant victories in Games 1 and 2.  But being a young team with really nothing to lose at this point, New Jersey is in an excellent position to put those behind and make the changes necessary to turn the tables in Game 3 and 4.  It's what the Devils did to the Rangers in Games 5 and 7 when they needed to, winning both of those at home by lopsided 4-0 margins.  Some more good news for the Devils this afternoon:  the favorite is 8-1 in the last nine meetings of these two and the home team is 14-4 in the last 18.  Take New Jersey.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Guardians.  This will be Joe Ryan's 6th start vs. the Guardians.  In his five previous starts, he's gone 3-0, and allowed just 5 earned runs over 31 2/3 innings (1.42 ERA), and 22 baserunners (0.69 WHIP).  This season, Ryan is off to a sensational start.  In six starts, he's 5-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.76 WHIP.  And his K:BB ratio is 43:6.  Ryan's won eight straight decisions, dating back to last season, and I look for him to keep it going this afternoon, as the Twins are 12-2 behind Ryan when favored by -150 or less.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 3 between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors.  The Warriors blew out LA in Game 2, 127-100, and leveled the series at 1 game apiece.  After giving up 127 points, we'll look for a much better defensive effort by the Lakers today, and for this game to go UNDER the total.  Indeed, teams off playoff losses in which they gave up 120+ points have gone 21-8 UNDER in their next game when the O/U line was 218+ points.  And the Lakers are 22-8 UNDER off a double-digit road playoff loss when the O/U line was 193+ points (and 7-0 UNDER when the O/U line was 208+ points).  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Vegas Golden Knights.  The Knights struck first in this series, taking Game 1 on Thursday, 6-4 (it was actually 5-4 before an empty net goal at the end).  The Oilers may be looking for answers, but they sure can't blame their All Star Center Leon Draisaitl as the 27-year-old German scored all four of Edmonton's goals.  Besides Draisaitl's incredible performance, the other good news is that the Oilers scored their four goals on just 27 shots so if they can get their other stars like Connor McDavid to pick up their game tonight while tightening up their defense a bit, then they should be able to send this series to Edmonton all tied up at 1-1.  Prior to Thursday's disappointment, the Oilers had won not lost in regulation in any of their 21 previous games (18-0-3).  And the Oilers had won six of eight meetings with the Knights.  The Oilers are 9-1 on the road off a road loss, and 23-9 when playing with revenge.  Take Edmonton.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets took care of business at home, as they won both games by double-digits, including a 97-87 win on Monday, in Game 2.  We'll fade Denver tonight on the road, as it's 27-58-1 ATS on the road off a win by more than eight points.  Additionally, home teams have gone 22-7 ATS when playing with at least 3 days' of rest off a road playoff loss.  Finally, #1-seeded teams up 2-games-to-none have covered just nine of 28 games as an underdog vs. teams seeded #4 (or worse).  Lay the points with Phoenix.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners.  Things have not quite gone according to plan for the Houston Astros.  A 16-15 record is probably not what the Defending World Series Champs wanted or expected a little more than a month into the season.  Of course their leader, Jose Altuve, has been out with a broken thumb (he is due back soon) and some other members of their roster have been dinged up as well.  But still you would expect them to have done better at this point.  Perhaps a weekend series against the Mariners will help as the 'Stros are an incredible 51-19 in the last 70 meetings, including 5-0 in the last five here at T-Mobile Park.  And they have to feel good about RH Cristian Javier starting things off for them tonight.  In seven career outings vs. Seattle, Javier is 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and in three of this four starts against them, Javier has held the M's scoreless.  The 'Stros are 5-0 in Javier's last five starts vs. teams with a losing record.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Jersey Devils over Carolina.  The Devils lost Game 1 to the Hurricanes, 5-1, but I expect them to bounce back tonight.  The Devils are 29-15-1 on the road this season.  And when they were playing back-to-back road games, and lost the first one, then they were a perfect 6-0 in the road game off a road loss.  Meanwhile, the Devils are a soft 7-10 (minus 4.5 net games) when leading in a playoff series.  And, finally, the Devils are 13-6 on the road when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 2 goals.  Take New Jersey.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  LeBron James & Co. upset the Warriors on Tuesday.  We'll take Golden State to avenge that defeat, as the Lakers are 22-49 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe it upset in the previous meeting.  And LeBron James' teams have gone 0-6 ATS in the Playoffs in his career off an upset win, if playing a sub-.640 foe.  Finally, the Warriors are 61-38 ATS vs. division rivals, if the Warriors were off a SU loss.  Lay the points with Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Florida Panthers.  The Leafs were turned back at home in Game 1 of this series, 4-2, by the Panthers.  We'll take the Leafs to bounce back tonight, as they're 25-11 when trailing in a Playoff series, and 14-1 their last 15 home games after losing their previous game by 2+ goals.  Meanwhile, Florida is a wallet-busting 19-27 (minus 18.8 net games) after scoring more than 3 goals in their previous game.  Take the Maple Leafs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox.  Toronto will hand the ball to RHP Kevin Gausman for his 7th start vs. Boston since coming over to the Blue Jays in 2022.  And all Toronto has done with Gausman on the hill vs. Boston is go 6-0 -- outscoring Boston, 56-22, in those games.  Meanwhile, Boston's Bryan Bello has never won vs. Toronto.  He has a 7.62 ERA in three career starts, and the Red Sox have lost those games by an aggregate of 21-6.  This season, Gausman has made 6 starts, and has given up 0 earned runs in four of those six games.  His ERA is 2.33, with a WHIP of 1.00.  His last two starts were the most impressive, as he allowed 0 runs over 14 innings vs. the Yankees and Mariners, and struck out 24, while walking just 1.  Gausman's teams have won 16 of his last 19 division games.  Take Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Philadelphia.  The 76ers are on a 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS streak, including an upset win over Boston in Game 1 on Monday.  We'll fade Philly tonight, as NBA underdogs of +8 (or more) points have gone 12-40 ATS vs. foes off a game where they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points.  Even worse for the Sixers:   they're 18-36 ATS as road underdogs of more than 4 points vs. .501 (or better) foes.  And, finally, the Celtics are 60-29 ATS when playing with double revenge, if they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in the prior meeting.  Lay the points with Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers to go UNDER the total.  Boston has played its last five games over the total.  But we'll look for a lower-scoring game on Wednesday, as Boston has gone UNDER 19-10 in the Playoffs off a home loss.  Meanwhile, Philly is 93-53 UNDER the total when playing a foe off 5+ overs.  And the Sixers have also gone UNDER in 15 of their last 21 playoff games, including 6-0 UNDER when the O/U line has been 216+ points.  Take the UNDER.  As always, good luck, Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the New Jersey Devils.  These two teams split the season series, 2 games apiece, with each team going 1-1 in its two home games.  New Jersey won the most recent two games, while Carolina won the season's first two meetings.  We played on New Jersey in its last game -- a 4-0 win over New York -- but will switch gears and go against the Devils in Raleigh.  New Jersey is a poor 8-17 (minus 13.3 net games) off a home win by 2+ goals, and 2-8 off a shutout win.  Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are 19-12 when playing with double revenge, and 105-51 off a win (including 26-6 off an overtime win).  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Washington Nationals.  We played on the Cubs in Game 1 of this 3-game series, on Monday, and got the $$$ with Drew Smyly & Co. as the Cubs won 5-1.  Chicago lost last night, 4-1, as the Nats scored 3 runs in the bottom of the 7th for the victory.  We'll take the Cubs to win the rubber match of this series, as they'll go up against Cory Abbott tonight.  And Abbott hasn't seen the win column in his career, as he's 0-5 with a 5.61 ERA in his career.  Even worse:  the Nationals have lost each of his last eight starts.  Abbott will face RHP Marcus Stroman tonight.  And Stroman has been terrific this season, as he's thrown 5 quality starts in 6 outings, and has a 2.29 ERA (including 1.46 on the road away from Wrigley Field).  Take Chicago.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Seattle Kraken.  Being the home team and having home ice advantage doesn't guarantee success in these playoffs -- not by a longshot.  If you don't believe it, just ask the Boston Bruins who came in as the top seed in the entire league and were sent packing in seven games.  So the Stars know that even though they will be home for the first two games of this series, they still have to perform.  And the fact that they're playing an expansion team that's only been in the league two seasons probably won't make them rest any easier.  After all Dallas is a team that is hungry for a championship with its last -- and only -- Stanley Cup coming almost 25 years ago. So you can bet they won't take the Kraken for granted.  These two have met only six times and the Stars are 4-2 in those games so they do have some history on their side.  Although they advanced by beating the defending champion Avs in seven games, the Kraken are just 7-19 in their last 26 vs. teams with a winning record.  Take Dallas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Miami.  The Heat took Game 1, 108-101.  We'll lay the points with the Knicks in Game 2, as they're 81-38 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, if playing with revenge from a home loss vs. a .500 (or better) foe.  Even better:  teams (like Miami) have covered just 23 of 65 away from home in the post-season after covering the spread in each of their three previous games by more than 7 points.  And #5-seeded teams (like New York) have gone 69-31-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take the Knicks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.