Sports Picks & Predictions

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Ole Miss.  Alabama comes into this game off a 63-14 pasting of Southern Mississippi.  I won't step in front of Nick Saban's men here, as his teams are 77-44 ATS when laying between 10 and 29 points.  Even better:  defending National Champs have gone 24-7 ATS in conference games after scoring more than 56 points in their previous game.  Finally, SEC Conference road underdogs of +7 (or more) points are an awful 61-93 ATS against foes off 33+ point victories.  Take Alabama to roll over Ole Miss.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans + the points over South Carolina.  Troy was upset last week, 29-16, by Louisiana-Monroe, and will look to bounce back on the road in Columbia against the 2-2 Gamecocks.  Prior to surrendering those 29 points to Monroe, the Trojans had allowed their three previous foes to score just 33 combined.  And that bodes well for Troy here, as .500 (or better) underdogs that allow less than 17.3 ppg have gone 138-92 ATS off an upset loss.  Also, the Trojans are an awesome 7-0 ATS as an underdog off an upset loss, when matched up against .666 (or worse) foes, while South Carolina is 0-8 ATS vs. .666 (or worse) foes off an upset road loss.  And, finally, Troy falls into 220-119 and 91-37 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to rebound off SU defeats.  Grab the points with the Trojans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers + the points over Florida Atlantic.  The Owls are favored by double-digits over the 0-3 Panthers, but fall into an ugly 0-13-1 ATS situation.  Since 2004, Florida Atlantic is 0-13-1 ATS at home vs. losing teams, when favored by less than 12 points.  Even worse:  the Owls come into this game off a blowout, 31-7, loss to Air Force.  But Conference USA favorites of 11 or less points have gone 49-89-4 ATS vs. revenge-minded conference foes.  With the Panthers, indeed, playing with revenge from a 19-point loss last season, we'll grab the double-digits with Florida International.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Kansas State. Lincoln Riley's men will enter Manhattan this afternoon with major revenge, as Kansas State has won the last two years. And the Sooners were favored by 28 and 23.5 points in those two defeats. Never before in the history of my database -- which dates back to 1980 -- has a team lost back to back meetings where it was favored by more than 20 points. We'll step in and play on Oklahoma here, as double-revengers have cashed 55.5 percent if they were upset at home in the previous season. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe.  Dating back to last season, Coastal Carolina has quietly gone 6-0-2 ATS here, at home, in Conway.  Meanwhile, the Warhawks are a wallet-busting 8-15 ATS their last 23 on the road.  Last week, Monroe was at home, and pulled off a stunning upset, 29-16, over Troy, as a 23.5-point dog.  But off that win, we will fade Monroe here, as double-digit underdogs have cashed just 40.2% over the last 42 years vs. winning conference foes, if they were off an upset win the previous week as a two-touchdown underdog.  Take the Chanticleers minus the points.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Cincinnati.  Jack Coan is now listed as 'probable' to play in this match-up between top 10-ranked squads, and we'll grab the points with the homestanding Irish.  Notre Dame has been a very reliable home underdog here, in South Bend, over the years.  And especially when the Irish didn't own a losing record, as they're 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 in that situation.  Even better:  undefeated teams, with a 3-0 (or better) record, have cashed 62 of 100 as home dogs vs. opponents that are also unbeaten, including a perfect 6-0 ATS since Sept 29, 2018.  Take Notre Dame + the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Louisville.  Wake Forest comes into this game off four straight blowout wins (by 20+ points each).  And they've covered the spread by 23.5 and 16.5 their past two games.  I won't step in front of this freight train here, in Winston-Salem, as home teams have covered 60% over the last 42 years in conference games, if they were off back to back 20-point wins, covered the spread by 10+ points in each, and weren't favored by more than 7 points.  Lay the points with Wake Forest.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over the Arkansas Razorbacks, as the Bulldogs fall into several of my best systems, including ones with records of 281-195, 124-59, 96-34 and 93-24 ATS.  Sam Pittman's Razorbacks upset Texas A&M last Saturday in Arlington (for their 4th straight win and cover), but will face a much stiffer test on Saturday in Athens.  The #2-ranked Bulldogs have given up just 23 points and 278 rushing yards (2.29 ypr) in their four games this season, including a total of 2 yards rushing vs. #25-ranked Clemson.  That doesn't bode well for an Arkansas offense which wants to run the football 70% of the time.  The Razorbacks are averaging just 21 pass attempts per game (compared to 47 runs).  Georgia, on the other hand, has a more balanced offense, and throws the ball 43% of the time.  The Bulldogs whitewashed Vanderbilt, 62-0, in Nashville, last week.  And NCAA teams off 50-point road wins have covered 74% of conference games over the last 42 years.  Meanwhile, NCAA teams (like Arkansas) off back-to-back wins, and 4 ATS wins have covered just 33% as underdogs of 14+ points since 1980.  Arkansas is also 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS as a .500 (or better) team getting 17+ points.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Georgia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Duke.  North Carolina began its season as the 10th-ranked team in the country, but has stumbled to a 2-2 record.  Its only wins have com at home, where it defeated Georgia State, 59-17, and Virginia, 59-39.  On the road, the Heels are 0-2, with losses at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.  So, the good news for UNC fans is that the Tar Heels are back in Chapel Hill on Saturday to take on the Duke Blue Devils, who are riding a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  Unfortunately for Duke, over the last 35 years, underdogs of more than 19 points, off 3 ATS wins, have covered just 40.9% of the time.  Additionally, North Carolina is 20-6 ATS at home off a road loss by 17+ points.  Lay the points with the Tar Heels.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Detroit Tigers.  Lance Lynn is having a terrific season (10-6, 2.72 ERA), but stumbled badly in his last start, six days ago, when he gave up six earned runs.  The good news is that when he's given up more than three earned runs, he's bounced back strong in his next start, as he's given up just 2 earned runs over 23 2/3 innings the previous five instances.  He will be working with an extra day of rest tonight, and that also bodes well, as his teams are 39-15 (+19.5 net games on the moneyline when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest).  Lynn has faced Detroit three times over the last three seasons, and has a 3-0 record (19 innings, 3 runs, 25 strikeouts).  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Cincinnati.  Last week, the Bengals went into the Steel City, and upset Pittsburgh, 24-10, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, the Bengals are a horrid 0-11 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points off a division win by more than 6 points.  The Jaguars are off to an 0-3 start in the Urban Meyer era, and each loss has been by double-digits.  But we'll step in and take the Jags as a big road underdog in this Nationally Televised game.  Over the years, the league's worst teams have stepped up when the spotlight was on, as teams with a win percentage less than .200 are 15-4 ATS as underdogs of more than 7 points on Monday/Thursday night games.  Even better:  winless road underdogs are 212-152-6 ATS in non-division games, including 16-5 ATS if they were off three straight double-digit defeats.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays.  Astros RHP Lance McCullers, Jr. desperately wanted to show that he could have an injury-free season and start 30 games in the Majors.  He won't quite get there, but he has to be pretty happy with what he's accomplished in 2021.  The 27-year-old will get his career-best 28th start tonight, and he comes in with an excellent 12-5 record and 3.17 ERA.  If McCullers could just cut down on his walks, he could make the transition from very good to great pitcher and possibly one of the AL's elite starters.  And it wouldn't hurt his confidence if he picked up the "W" in his final start of the season against the team with the best record in the league -- and a team that the Astros could see in October.  McCullers has always done his best work here at home.  In 59 starts at Minute Maid Park, McCullers is 25-10 (.714) with a 2.76 ERA vs. just 19-20 and 4.48 in 62 games (59 starts) on the road.  Tampa is 2-6 in the last eight meetings in Houston.  Take the Astros.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Houston Astros.  This series during the last week of the regular season is a possible preview of a post-season match-up in the AL.  The Stros drew first blood last night when the Rays' normally solid bullpen walked in the tying and winning runs in the bottom of the ninth inning.  With the dramatic victory, the Astros are now on the verge of clinching the AL West division title.  The Rays will try to even the series tonight and will send young RHP Drew Rasmussen to the mound in an attempt to do so.  Few noticed when the Rays sent IF Willy Adames to the Brewers for the 26-year-old hurler in May, but the trade helped both teams clinch their divisions.  In 19 games since joining the Rays (nine starts), Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.  He'll try to build on that success tonight in his first career starts vs. Houston.  The Rays are 6-2 in Rasmussen's last eight starts overall and 5-0 in his last five road starts going back to July 24.  Take Tampa Bay.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  Thanks in large part to one of the hottest streaks we've seen from any Major League club in recent years, the Cardinals are on the verge of securing a Wild Card spot.  Their reward -- if you can call it that -- will be a one game playoff against either the Dodgers or Giants.  The Cards will go into that game with almost no pressure, knowing that just a couple of months ago few people gave them any chance to be in this position.  But tonight it's the 2nd game of a 3-game set against their main rivals, the Brewers.  Milwaukee's RHP Adrian Houser will try to do what no one else has been able to in the Cards' last 17 games.  Houser's solid season (9-6 with a 3.34 ERA in 27 games including 25 starts) has been overshadowed by the performances of the other starters in the rotation.  No doubt he and the Brewers would love to see him get to double-digit wins for the first time in his career.  The Crew is 3-1 in Houser's last four starts vs. the Cards.  Take Milwaukee.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees.  Yesterday, the Blue Jays managed to score just two runs against Jameson Taillon and the Yankees, and fell, 7-2.  Tonight, the Jays will look to bounce back, and stay in the race for the final playoff berth (the Jays currently sit one game behind Boston, and three behind New York).  Toronto is 25-12 (+11 net games on the moneyline) after scoring less than three runs.  Take the Blue Jays.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Seattle Mariners.  You can't make up the season that Chris Bassitt has had.  The 32-year-old was voted to his first All Star game on the strength of a first half in which he went 10-2 with a 3.28 ERA in 19 starts covering 118 innings.  And the second half started solidly as well for Bassitt in starts against the Rangers, Indians, Rangers, and tonight's opponents, the Mariners.  But then in his start on August 17 against the White Sox, Bassitt was struck in the head by a line drive in one of the scariest moments of the season.  Miraculously, Bassitt made his comeback start only five weeks after that terrible incident and it was against this Seattle team.  In three near-perfect innings, Bassitt allowed just one run and struck out four M's batters while looking every bit the All Star he was earlier in the season.  In 15 road starts this season, Bassitt is 8-1 even though he has a higher ERA than at home.  Take the Athletics.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St Louis Cardinals.  Brandon Woodruff was a tough-luck loser last week vs. the Cardinals (as a -200 favorite).  Woodruff struck out 10 batters, and allowed just two hits and one run over six innings, but Milwaukee lost 2-1.  We'll take Woodruff to make amends this evening, as the Brewers are 19-12 in his starts after he gave up 1 run or less in his previous outing.  And they're 19-11 in his starts when priced from +125 to -125.  Milwaukee comes into this game off an 8-4 win over the Mets, and is riding a 3-game win streak.  That bodes well for them in this game, as the Brewers are 55-25 off a win by more than 3 runs, and 61-31 this year off a win.  St. Louis' current 16-game win streak is keeping a lid on this price.  In Woodruff's three starts vs. St. Louis this season, Milwaukee was favored -200, -185, and -175.  We'll take the Brewers with their ace, Woodruff, in this near-PK'em game.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta.  The Phillies are in a virtual 'must-win' situation tonight, as they sit 2.5 games behind division-leading Atlanta heading into this 3-game series.  The good news for the Phils is that ace Zack Wheeler will be on the mound tonight.  The Cy Young candidate leads the league in innings (206 1/3) and strikeouts (240), and has allowed just 3 runs over his last 4 starts (1.15 ERA).  In his last two starts vs. the Braves this season, Wheeler gave up just 1 run over 15 innings, and struck out 20.  Meanwhile, Charlie Morton has given up 12 runs (6 earned) in 17 2/3 innings vs. the Phillies.  And his career ERA vs. them is 5.53.  Atlanta is a wallet-busting 37-37 (minus 16.4 net games on the moneyline) at home this season, while Philly is 32-31 (+10 net games) as an underdog, and 49-34 (+15.8 net games) off a loss by more than 3 runs.  Take Philadelphia.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees.  The Red Sox bullpen had another meltdown last night, allowing the Yankees to come back and score four runs in the 8th inning to pull off the victory here in Boston.  The Sox can ill afford to do that if they are to secure a Wild Card spot in the coming week.  The Yanks will now go for the three-game road sweep tonight in the series finale -- and the final 2021 regular season game between these two rivals.  It hasn't been the kind of season that LHP Eduardo Rodriguez hoped for.  The veteran Boston southpaw has 11 wins which isn't too shabby, but he also has a 4.97 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 29 starts covering 146 2/3 innings.  But E-Rod will feel a whole lot better about his season if he can help his team win tonight.  The good news is that Rodriguez has been a Yankee-killer this season.  In four 2021 starts vs. pinstripes covering 18 innings, E-Rod is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP and even better is the fact that the Red Sox are 4-0 in those starts.  Take Boston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Buccaneers come into this game off a blowout, 48-25 win over Atlanta.  That was also the 10th straight win by the Buccaneers dating back to last season.  But defending Super Bowl champs have struggled off blowout wins by 20+ points, and especially on the road vs. non-division foes, as they've covered just 34.3% over the last 42 seasons.  That doesn't bode well for Tom Brady & Co. on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that NFL road favorites, off back to back wins, in which they scored more than 30 points, have covered just 48 of 125 vs. non-division foes.  Take the Rams as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Raiders come into this game off back-to-back upset wins to start the season.  And they've been installed as a home favorite over Miami, which was shutout last week by Buffalo, 35-0.  We'll play on the Dolphins to bounce back in this game, as .500 (or better) single-digit road underdogs are 91-59 ATS in regular season, non-division games since 1980 after failing to cover the spread by more than 14 points in their previous game.  Even better:  the Raiders have been huge money-burners as favorites, as they're 20-39-1 ATS their last 60 as chalk, including 10-33-1 ATS vs. foes that didn't have a winning ATS record.  The Dolphins are 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 meetings, including 6-1-1 ATS off a loss.  And they're 17-6 ATS their last 23 games as an underdog.  Take Miami + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Denver Broncos.  This is the only match-up this week which pits a 2-0 SU/ATS team vs. an 0-2 SU/ATS team.  Many bettors might rush to the side of the Broncos, given that they will be playing their home opener off two impressive road wins to start the season.  But 2-0 NFL teams have only covered 28% as home favorites over the last 42 years vs. foes off to an 0-2 SU/ATS start!  And home favorites playing their home opener after starting the season with 2 (or more) road games have also been horrible, as they've gone 8-23-2 ATS since 2005 (and 39-61-3 ATS since 1980).  Take the points with the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New York Giants.  Atlanta has opened the 2021 season with back to back blowout losses -- by 26 to Philly, and by 23 to Tampa Bay.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Falcons here, as a small road underdog.  But consider that, in Week 3, NFL teams that lost their first two games each by 9+ points, and also failed to cover the spread in each game by 9+ points, have covered 70.9% as an underdog in Week 3.  The Giants have covered just one of their last eight games as a non-division favorite.  And they're 25-37-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. non-division foes off a loss, including 4-15-1 ATS when favored by 3 points or less.  Take Atlanta.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Football Team over the Buffalo Bills.  We played on the Bills last week, as it was a perfect "bounce-back" spot following their upset loss in Week 1, as the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  And Buffalo rewarded us with a 35-0 victory.  Unfortunately, NFL teams off shutout wins have covered just 73 of 181 games vs. .333 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including just 3-23 ATS if our 'play-against' team (here, Buffalo) scored 35+ points in its shutout victory.  Grab the points with Washington.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over the Tennessee Titans.  The Colts should be starting QB Carson Wentz this afternoon, and that's enough for us to pull the trigger on Indianapolis as a road underdog.  Indianapolis has a brutal opening schedule this season (the hardest in the NFL), with its first five games against teams with winning records last season (Seahawks, Rams, Titans, Dolphins, Ravens).  The only other team to even come close to this difficult of an opening schedule is the Raiders, who opened with three teams that had winning records last season (Ravens, Steelers, Dolphins).  So, one shouldn't necessarily over-react to the fact that the Colts are 0-2 to start the season.  They'll play their first division contest of 2021 this afternoon when they travel to Nashville to take on the 1-1 Titans, who upset Seattle, 33-30, as a 6.5-point road underdog last week.  Unfortunately for Tennessee, teams off big upset wins over superior teams generally have letdowns when matched up against inferior teams in their next game, as they cover only 40.8% of the time since 1980.  And Tennessee has historically been a poor favorite, as it's 32-53-2 ATS when laying more than 3 points.  Meanwhile, Indy is 44-21 ATS off a loss, including 23-8-1 ATS on the road.  Take the Colts + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over West Virginia.  The #4-ranked Sooners have sandwiched two point spread losses around a 76-0 blowout of Western Carolina.  They'll look to play much better in this -- their Big 12 opener -- than they did last week against Nebraska.  The Sooners were favored by 23 in that game, yet won by just seven, 23-16.  But .500 (or better) Big 12 home favorites of more than 5 points have cashed 64% over the last 42 seasons after failing to cover by more than 14 points in their previous game.  And Oklahoma also falls into a 63% ATS system of mine which plays on certain undefeated teams off ATS defeats.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Oklahoma.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Florida.  Last week, the Gators came within two points of upsetting #1-ranked Alabama.  Now, they're favored by a bunch against Tennessee -- a team they've defeated 15 of the last 16 meetings -- but it's a classic letdown spot.  We'll grab the points with the Volunteers, as Florida tends to not bounce back at home vs. SEC foes if Florida lost its previous game.  The Gators are a horrid 9-24-1 ATS in this situation.  Moreover, this is Tennessee's conference opener.  And SEC road underdogs have gone 65-37-1 ATS in their conference opener, provided their opponent wasn't playing with revenge from a loss the previous season.  Take Tennessee + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Rutgers.  Jim Harbaugh has his troops off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start after crushing Northern Illinois, 63-10, last Saturday.  That was the 2nd highest point total by a Wolverines team in the coach Harbaugh era, bettered only by a 78-0 win over these Scarlet Knights in 2016.  Like Michigan, Rutgers is also off to a 3-0 start this season, and is also undefeated ATS.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams that are undefeated -- both SU and ATS -- with a 2-0 (or better) SU/ATS record have burned money as underdogs of +11 (or more) points, as they've covered just 41.2% over the last 42 seasons.  And undefeated teams, off 35-point (or greater) home wins the previous week, have cashed 60% of conference home games since 1980.  Take Michigan to rout Rutgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Iowa State.  Baylor comes into this game with an undefeated, 3-0 record, after blowing out Kansas last week, 45-7.  For the season, Baylor's outscoring its foes by 35.33 ppg, and that bodes well for it as a home dog on Saturday.  Indeed, over the last 42 seasons, home dogs of +2 (or more) points have covered 67.9% vs. unrested foes, if our home dog's scoring margin was 32+ points per game!  Even better:  Big 12 home underdogs off back to back wins have gone 31-10 ATS in the regular season vs. unrested conference foes not off an ATS loss.  Take Baylor.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Colorado State.  The Hawkeyes are 3-0 SU/ATS to start the season, and will welcome the Rams to Iowa City on Saturday afternoon.  Colorado State did upset Toledo, 22-6, as a 14.5-point underdog last week, but I don't expect lightning to strike twice in successive weeks.  Indeed, NCAA teams are 0-27 SU and 9-17-1 ATS as road dogs of more than 13 points, if they won outright as a road dog of more than 13 points the previous week (including 1-10 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins).  And Iowa is a reliable 21-1 SU and 17-5 ATS when favored by more than 21 points vs. non-conference foes.  Lay it.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles over Louisville.  The Seminoles have gotten off to an 0-3 start after succumbing, 35-14, at Wake Forest last Saturday.  But we'll take FSU in this match-up against a Louisville team coming into Tallahassee off an upset home win over UCF.  Indeed, NCAA teams are 1-22-1 ATS away from home vs. the Seminoles after winning ATS at home in their previous game, if Florida State was off an ATS loss.  Take Mike Norvell's Seminoles to get into the win column.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Western Michigan.  Both of these teams enter Saturday's game off road wins.  The Spartans went out to Honolulu, and dispatched the Rainbow Warriors, 17-13, while Western Michigan shocked Pittsburgh, 44-41, as a two touchdown underdog.  Each team now stands at 2-1 on the season.  Dating back to November 2017, the Spartans are a fantastic 21-11-2 ATS, while the Broncos are 12-20 ATS.  And Western Michigan is also an awful 1-12 ATS off a point spread cover by 10+ points.  Finally, over the last 42 years, home teams have covered just 32.7% off an upset non-conference win as a road dog of +7 (or more) points, if they were matched up against another non-conference opponent in their current game.  Take the Spartans.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Washington Nationals.  With just three wins in their last 10 games, the Reds are seeing their Playoff chances slip away.  With less than 10 games left, they have to make the most of a series like this one -- four games against a Nats team that traded away most of its major pieces at the end of July.  But DC drew first blood on Thursday, making this almost a must-win situation for the home team tonight.  Despite their victory here last yesterday, the Nats are just 10-35 in their last 45 road games and 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. teams with a winning record.  Sonny Gray gets his 25th start of the season for the Reds tonight, and although things haven't gone the way he would have wanted in 2021, Gray is still a solid veteran RH, capable of delivering a victory on any given outing.  In six career starts covering 35 innings vs. the Nationals, Gray is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  The Reds are also 27-12 in their last 39 games as a home favorite.  Take Cincinnati.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Wake Forest.  Last week, the Cavaliers were blown out, 59-39, by the North Carolina Tar Heels, while Wake Forest thrashed Florida State, 35-14.  But off those results, we'll take the Cavaliers to rebound on Friday, as they fall into a 99-49 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in conference games off double-digit conference losses the previous week.  Moreover, the Cavaliers are 19-2 SU and 11-5-1 ATS their last 21 home games.  And they're 8-0 ATS their last eight at home (and 20-6-1 ATS their last 27 home games) when not favored by 7+ points.  Take Virginia to rout the Demon Deacons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Appalachian State.  Last week, Marshall was stunned, 42-38, as a 10.5-point home favorite by East Carolina.  But I love Marshall to rebound tonight in Boone, as Conference USA teams have cashed 57% in non-conference road games off an upset home loss.  These two schools met last season in Huntington, and the Herd upset the Mountaineers, 17-7, as a 6.5-point home underdog.  They are once again installed as an underdog, and we'll grab the points with Marshall on Thursday.  Indeed, Sun Belt conference teams are a horrible 32-67 ATS when favored against a non-conference foe, if that foe didn't own a losing record (including 0-11 ATS their last 11 as a home favorite, priced from -2.5 to -12.5).  That doesn't bode well for Appalachian State on Thursday night.  Nor does the fact that Marshall is a fantastic 11-1-1 ATS its last 13, and 16-5-1 ATS its last 21 in non-conference games when off a straight-up loss, and not favored by more than 3 points.  Finally, App State is a wallet-busting 3-14 ATS at home off a win, when playing an opponent which doesn't own a winning ATS record.  Take Marshall + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  With their victory here last night, the Cardinals' winning streak has now reached 11 games.  The Brewers get one more crack at them this afternoon (they will play them again in St. Louis in five days).  Their hopes for not getting swept in this four-game series will ride on the arm of RHP Adrian Houser.  Overshadowed this season by Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta, Houser has posted a 9-6 record with a solid 3.43 ERA in 26 games -- 24 starts -- covering 131 1/3 innings.  In nine career games vs. the Cards -- six starts -- Houser is 3-2 with a 2.80 ERA in just over 35 innings.  In two starts against them this season, Houser is 2-0 and has yet to allow an earned run in 14 innings, with nine hits allowed and 10 strikeouts.  The last one was right here in Milwaukee on September 4 when Houser pitched a complete game shutout -- the first of his career -- in a 4-0 Brewers victory.  The Crew is 6-0 in Houser's last six starts vs. teams with winning records.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  Milwaukee has dropped the first two games of this 4-game series to their division rivals, but I like them to bounce back behind lefty Brett Anderson tonight, on Wednesday.  Anderson has a very good 3.04 career ERA vs. St. Louis, including a 1-run, 5-inning outing earlier this season at St. Louis.  Meanwhile, Miles Mikolas' career ERA vs. Milwaukee is more than a run higher, at 4.29.  And his road ERA this season is an ugly 8.59 (with a 2.04 WHIP).  With the Brewers 72-43 their last 115 vs. righties, and 46-25 vs. NL Central foes, we'll take Craig Counsell's men on Wednesday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  The hottest team in baseball right now?  It's the Cardinals who have won nine games in a row to put themselves in a somewhat comfortable position as the number two Wild Card.  But the Brewers have unfinished business.  They want to win the NL Central and they want to clinch it as soon as possible.  They know what can happen in a Wild Card Playoff -- they've lost two in the last two seasons -- and really don't want to go there again.  So, which starter is better to help them get their second pennant in the last four seasons than RH Brandon Woodruff?  In 28 starts covering 169 1/3 innings, Woodruff is 9-9 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with a 4.71 K:BB ratio (198 strikeouts against 42 walks).  In eight career games vs. the Cardinals (six starts), Woodruff is 3-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.  And the Brewers have won four of his six starts vs. St. Louis, including two of the last three.  Woodruff has also done his best work at home this season, as he's 4-2 in front of the home faithful, but 5-7 on the road.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Detroit.  Last week, Aaron Rodgers played one of the worst games of his storied career.  The Packers were favored by 3.5 points against New Orleans, yet only scored three in a blowout loss by 35 points.  But one of the things I often like to do is play on teams that scored less points in an upset loss than they were actually favored by, as those teams have bounced back in their next game much more often than not.  Even better:  Green Bay is a jaw-dropping 34-6 ATS its last 40 (and 10-0 ATS its last 10) with Rodgers at QB, following a game in which it scored less than 23 points!  And Green Bay is also an awesome 50-21-1 ATS in Rodgers' starts when favored by less than 13 points against a foe off an ATS win, including 10-1 ATS if the Packers were upset in their previous game.  Lay the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over Kansas City.  Last week, the Ravens were upset, in overtime, by Las Vegas, while Kansas City eked out a 4-point win over a very good Browns team.  The good news for the Ravens is that NFL home teams off a upset road loss have cashed 60.3% since 1980 vs. foes off a straight-up win.  And Baltimore has cashed 76.4% as an underdog over the last 42 years off an upset loss, when matched-up against a non-division foe off a SU win.  Take the Ravens + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the San Francisco Giants.  This will be Max Fried's 4th career start against the Giants, and the Braves have won each of his first three, outscoring the Giants by an aggregate score of 23-8.  But for those who have followed Fried's career, this 3-0 record won't come as a shock, as the Braves are a staggering 55-24 in his 79 starts.  So, even though Fried and the Braves are an underdog here against the best team in baseball, we'll take Atlanta in this underdog role.  One key stat for me in this game is that Fried will be working on an extra day of rest following Atlanta's 5-3 victory over Miami on Monday.  And the Braves are 24-8 in Fried's 32 starts when he's been working on an extra day or two of rest.  Anthony DeSclafani will get the ball for Gabe Kapler's Giants, but he's not had much success in his career vs. Atlanta (1-3, 4.85 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), and he's had even less success this season in his daytime starts (6.26 ERA, 1.68 WHIP).  Take the Braves.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Last week, the Dolphins were out-yarded, 393-259, by New England, but benefited from two fumbles by the Patriots to escape with a 17-16 upset win.  This week, they'll take on a Bills team which is no doubt smarting from its 23-16 upset home loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday.  And the Bills also had tough luck, as they out-yarded the Steelers, 371 to 252, but lost the turnover battle (and the war).  Over the last 42 seasons, Game 2 road teams off upset losses have cashed 61% vs. foes off upset wins.  Even better:  Buffalo's 13-2 ATS vs. the Dolphins, if Miami was off an upset win in its previous game.  And the Bills are 33-13-1 ATS off a loss, if their opponent was off an upset win.  Take Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over the Houston Texans.  Houston pulled off one of Week 1's biggest shockers when they upset Jacksonville, 37-21, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  Unfortunately for Houston, double-digit road underdogs, off a double-digit upset win at home, have covered just 32.2% over the past 42 NFL seasons, including just 23% vs. a foe off a point spread win.  Take Cleveland to rout the Texans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  Last week, the Saints routed Green Bay, which was the #1 NFC seed in the previous season's playoffs.  But NFL road favorites (or PK) that upset an opponent in Week 1, which won 10+ games the previous games, have generally had a letdown in Week 2, as they've cashed just 38% since 1980.  Take the Panthers + the points over New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Brigham Young.  BYU notched a huge, emotional win last Saturday, when it defeated its Beehive State rival, Utah, 26-17, as a 7-point underdog.  That moved BYU's record to 2-0 on the season.  But .800 (or better) NCAA home underdogs (or PK) have covered just 16% over the past 42 years off an upset, non-conference home win.  And the Cougars have covered just 6 of 22 off an upset win, when they were matched up against an opponent off a SU win.  Take Arizona State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Stanford.  David Shaw's Cardinal pulled off a massive upset last weekend, as they went into the Coliseum, and upset USC, 42-28, as an 18-point underdog.  And they did more than just win the game.  They also got USC head coach Clay Helton fired!  Stanford will now travel east to Nashville to play the Vanderbilt Commodores, who also pulled off a road upset win last week, when they went into Fort Collins, and upended the Colorado State Rams, 24-21.  This is a big letdown spot for Stanford, as this non-conference road game is sandwiched in between conference games vs. USC and UCLA.  For technical support, consider that Pac-12 teams have covered just 15.3% since 1980 as a non-conference road favorite after a SU/ATS conference win, if they also have a Pac-12 conference game on deck.  Take Vanderbilt as a big home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the St. Louis Cardinals.  If you had heard at the beginning of the season that the game between the Padres and Cards on September 18 would be a match-up between RHPs Yu Darvish and Adam Wainwright and that one of the two starters would be a favorite for the NL Cy Young, you would assume it was Darvish.  But it's been the 40-year-old Cardinals ace who has had a career season, while Darvish has been a disappointment.  However, Darvish can put all that behind him with a strong outing and a victory tonight which would help his club get closer to a Wild Card playoff spot.  Ironically, it's the Cardinals -- among other teams -- that the Padres are battling with for that spot.  We'll take San Diego tonight, as Darvish -- in six career starts vs. St. Louis covering 37 1/3 innings -- is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 49 strikeouts and nine walks.  And here at Busch Stadium, Darvish sports a 2.25 ERA with 15 strikeouts and three walks in 12 innings.  Take San Diego.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Mississippi State.  We played on the Bulldogs last Saturday as a home underdog vs. NC State.  And Mike Leach's men got the $$$ vs. NC State.  But off that home upset win, we will fade Miss State on Saturday.  Indeed, since 1980, SEC Conference teams are a horrible 30.4% ATS in their first road game of the season, if they're off back to back home wins.  Take the home dog Memphis Tigers + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Tulsa.  We played against the Buckeyes last Saturday, and easily got the $$$ with Oregon, which upset Ohio State, 35-28, as a 14.5-point road underdog.  This Saturday, we'll switch gears, and lay the points with Ohio State, which is 28-12 ATS off a SU loss  Take Ohio State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Washington State.  The Trojans lost more than a conference game last Saturday.  They also lost their head coach, Clay Helton, as he was summarily fired on Tuesday by Mike Bohn, the school's athletic director.  So, USC's cornerbacks coach, Donte Williams, will assume the head role for the remainder of the season.  And Williams' first game will be this week at Washington State.  The Trojans are a superb 39-19-1 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 15-3-1 ATS on the Pac-12 road.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Virginia Tech.  The Mountaineers had a breather last Saturday, as Long Island visited Morgantown, and were annihilated by WVU, 66-0.  The Hokies will now pay a visit to Morgantown, after going 2-0 SU/ATS at home to start their 2021 season.  Unfortunately for Virginia Tech, NCAA teams off back-to-back SU/ATS home wins to start their seasons, are a horrible 30.7% ATS since 1980 in Game 3 when not getting more than 4 points, and also matched up against an opponent off a win.  Moreover, NCAA teams have cashed 79% at home since 1992 off a win by more than 56 points, when matched up against a winning, non-conference foe.  Take the Mountaineers.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Cincinnati.  Indiana lost its season opener, but bounced back last Saturday with a blowout win over Idaho, 56-14.  The Hoosiers have been installed as a home underdog in this game against the #8-ranked Bearcats, which bodes well for Tom Allen's men.  Indeed, since 1980, .500 (or worse) underdogs off a 40+ point win have covered 63.3% vs. opponents also off a win.  Moreover, dating back to Sept 28, 2019, Indiana is now 8-2 ATS its last 10 as an underdog.  And it's 23-11 ATS off a straight-up win, when priced from +10 to -27 points.  Finally, Cincinnati is a wallet-breaking 15-27 ATS as a road favorite priced from -2.5 to -12 points.  Take the Hoosiers as a home dog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers come into this road game off back to back home wins over Fordham and Buffalo.  But in their lone road game this season, they were soundly beaten by Illinois, 30-22, as a 7-point favorite.  They'll now be tasked with going into Norman to take on a juggernaut Oklahoma team coming off a 76-0 whitewash of Western Carolina.  We'll lay the points with the Sooners, as the 'Huskers have covered just 20 of 57 games away from home off a double-digit home win.  Even better:  NCAA home favorites of 35 points or less (or PK) have cashed 70.2% of non-conference games since 1980 off a win by 60+ points.  Lay the points with the Sooners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Texas Rangers.  For the White Sox's Dylan Cease, 2021 has been like a roller coaster ride.  The 25-year-old's road woes have been well documented by now.  And, every now and then, the uber-talented Cease will throw in a total clunker of a start -- and sometimes even at home.  His last outing was just such a clunker as Cease allowed seven runs in 2 2/3 innings at home against the Red Sox (his shortest start of the season).  But after throwing a clunker, he tends to come back big in his next start.  Counting last Saturday's disaster, Cease has had five outings in which he has allowed at least five runs in 5 1/3 innings or less.  And in the previous four, Cease stepped up in his next start and was ultra-sharp and the Sox were victorious in all four of those follow-ups (while Cease went 3-0).  The White Sox are also 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the Rangers.  Take Chicago tonight.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants.  After clinching its post-season berth two nights ago, the Giants followed up that win with a 6-1 victory over San Diego last night.  But I expect San Francisco's win streak to come to a halt this evening, as San Diego has a distinct advantage on the mound.  Padres righty Joe Musgrove will face off against San Francisco's Dominic Leone, who will serve as an "opener" in this game.  Leone can be expected to toss 1 to 2 innings, while Musgrove will go much deeper in the game.  Musgrove -- recently nominated for the Roberto Clemente Award for his work with the Challenged Athletes Foundation -- is having a terrific season.  He already threw the first no-hitter in Padres history back in April.  And his ERA over his last four starts is 2.05, while his WHIP is 1.02.  And, notwithstanding the fact that they've lost five straight games, San Diego is still in the thick of the Wild Card race, with just 1 game separating the three leading contenders (Cardinals, Reds, Padres) for the final spot.  Musgrove will be making this start on regular rest.  And in his starts this season on regular rest, he has done his best work by far, with a 2.28 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Detroit Tigers.  There has not been much that Brandon Woodruff has done wrong this season.  But his last start was one of the rare instances where he pitched poorly.  Woodruff surrendered 4 runs over six innings, and the Brewers wree shutout, 12-0, by the Philadelphia Phillies.  Milwaukee rebounded off that shutout loss to win five straight games until they were shutout last night, 1-0, by the Detroit Tigers.  I expect the Brewers and Woodruff to bounce back this afternoon against Detroit, and its righty starter, Matt Manning.  Manning has a 7.10 ERA over his last three starts, and his ERA for the season is an ugly 6.13, including 6.75 in the daytime.  In contrast, Woodruff's daytime ERA is a spectacular 1.87, and the Brewers are 39-19 their last 58 day games (+16.1 games on the moneyline).  They're also an eye-popping 77-18 (+36.1 net games) as a favorite priced at -200 (or more).  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Seattle Mariners.  The Red Sox were relying on Nathan Eovaldi earlier in the season and now with Chris Sale having tested positive for COVID, they really need the veteran righty to step up.  This 2021 season just may have be Eovaldi's best since coming into the Majors as he was elected to his first-ever All Star game.  But the 31-year-old is still not considered an MLB ace by almost any measurement.   And that's probably just fine with with the hurler, as in 28 starts covering 163 2/3 innings, Eovaldi is 10-8 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.  Eovaldi's 1.6 walk rate is currently the best such number in the Majors.  And the Red Sox are 4-0 in Eovaldi's last four starts on grass.  The Mariners will go with LHP Tyler Anderson and the veteran southpaw is just 6-9 with a 4.20 ERA in 26 starts covering 148 innings between his old team -- the Pirates -- and the Mariners.  Finally, the Red Sox are 12-7 in their last 19 as a road favorite of -125 or more.  Take the Sox.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  Last season, the Raiders were a .500 ball club, and missed the playoffs, while Baltimore went 11-5, and reached the Divisional round of the playoffs.  Over the years, it's been unprofitable to back playoff teams from the previous season in Game 1, if they were matched up against non-playoff teams.  This is the 4th of such meetings this season, and the point spread result of the first three (Cowboys over Bucs, Cardinals over Titans, and Chargers over Football Team) all went the way of the team which failed to make the playoffs last season.  And when such Game 1 meetings have occurred on Monday Night Football, our non-playoff teams have gone 14-6 ATS.  That bodes well for Las Vegas today.  As does the fact that Vegas is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 Monday Night games, and 16-11 ATS as a non-division home dog of +4 (or more) points, while Baltimore is a wallet-breaking 7-20 ATS as a non-division road favorite priced at -4 (or more) points.  Take the Raiders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Miami.  When these two AFC East division rivals last met, the Dolphins pounded the Patriots, 22-12, as a 2-point home underdog.  That defeat prevented Bill Belichick's men from having their 20th consecutive winning season.  With revenge on their mind, I expect the Patriots to make a statement here, at home.  Indeed, New England is 20-4 ATS when playing with revenge against a division opponent which upset it in the previous meeting.  And it's also 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings at home vs. Miami, and 16-5-3 ATS in its home openers when priced from -3 to -10 points.  Lay the points with New England. 

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the New York Giants.  This past preseason, the Giants failed to win a game.  And that doesn't bode well for New York in this season opener, as NFL teams have gone 7-24 ATS their last 31 season openers after going winless in the preseason.  Even worse:  New York is 3-14 ATS its last 17 as a single-digit home underdog, including 0-8 ATS its last eight vs. non-division foes.  Meanwhile, Denver is 16-9-1 ATS in its season-openers vs. non-division opponents, and it's 19-12 ATS as a road favorite of -3 (or more) points.  Ultimately, this will be a difficult match-up for Daniel Jones, who will be without injured TE Evan Engram as an option.  Denver's secondary is going to give New York's receivers fits.  With guys like Callahan, Surtain and Fuller, the Broncos will contain Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton.  The Giants will no doubt lean heavily on Saquon Barkley this afternoon, but he is coming off major surgery, and could be on a snap count.  All in all, Denver has a clear advantage in this match-up, and should win the game going away.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the St. Louis Cardinals.  The St. Louis Cardinals have been a dominant Major League franchise which has made the post-season in seven of the last 10 seasons.  That's a proud tradition and one that is not lost on the minds of the Cards' staff and their fans.  And if you want to find the last losing season for the Cards you have to go all the way back to 2007 when St. Louis went just 78-84.  They beat the Reds last night but tonight Cincy will be sending RHP Sonny Gray to the mound to try to stop the bleeding.  Gray seems to be putting it all together this season with a 7-6 record and 3.88 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 22 starts covering 113 2/3 innings.  The Reds are 8-4 in the last 12 meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings here in St. Louis.  Take Cincinnati.  As always, good luck....Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Boston Red Sox.  Two veteran starters were scheduled to face off against each other this afternoon in Chicago.  And while Lance Lynn will fulfill his obligation, Boston's Chris Sale apparently will not.  Lynn is going to make his first start back from a knee injury, and while Sale had looked very good upon his return from Tommy John surgery, the 32-year-old southpaw has now tested positive for COVID 19 and will not make his sixth start.  Lynn, on the other hand, appears ready to rejoin a team which has had recent struggles with the rotation so his presence on the mound today should be a welcome sight.  In 24 starts covering 135 2/3 innings, Lynn is 10-4 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  He is likely champing at the bit to go out this afternoon to show the team what he still has, especially against a team like the Red Sox.  The road has not been friendly to Boston lately as the Sox are 6-15 in their last 22 games away from Fenway Park.  Take Chicago.

At 1:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Miami Marlins.  It would be hard for Max Fried to duplicate his numbers from last season.  In the shortened 2020 campaign Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts covering 56 innings.  Despite the fact that he's lost some starts in 2021 -- and he wasn't selected as an All Star like 2020 -- Fried has still has had a pretty dominant campaign this year.  In 24 starts covering 136 innings, the 27-year-old southpaw is 11-7 with a 3.42 ERA.  And his 3.49 K:BB ratio is way ahead of his 2020 number.  Start number 25 will come this afternoon against the Marlins, a team he's already faced three times this season.  In Fried's 10 career starts vs. the Marlins going back to the 2017 season, the Braves are 7-3.  Moreover, the Marlins are 18-45 in the last 63 meetings and 17-35 in the last 52 in Atlanta.  Take the Braves.

At 1 pm, our AFC South Game of the Month is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over the Houston Texans.  Last season, the Jaguars won just one game (which enabled them to draft QB Trevor Lawrence in the Draft), while Houston wasn't much better at 4-12.  But the fact that the Jaguars are favored on the road in this season opener should tell you what most expect from the Texans this season (and it isn't much).  Last year, Houston won both meetings vs. the Jaguars.  Unfortunately, NFL teams have covered just 36% in Game 1 over the last 31 years if their opponent was a double-revenging division rival.  Take Jacksonville to blow out Houston on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Falcons have dominated their home openers over the years, as they're 17-5 ATS their last 22.  And this is a good set-up for the homestanding team, given Philadelphia's road woes, of late (0-6 SU/ATS last six).  Both teams will be breaking in new head coaches:  Arthur Smith in Atlanta, and Nick Sirianni in Phiily.  But Smith has the huge benefit of having a much more experienced quarterback in Matt Ryan.  And Ryan will be able to pick apart the Eagles' shaky secondary this afternoon, as I expect Calvin Ridley to torment Eagles CB Darius Slay.  And rookie TE Kyle Pitts also should be in for a big afternoon in his NFL debut, as the Eagles don't have anyone who can stay with him.  The Falcons are a solid 30-16-1 ATS when priced from -3 to -6.5 points when they didn't own a losing record.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over North Carolina State.  Both of these teams come into this game in Starkville off season-opening wins last week.  But how they reached those wins was vastly different.  NC State blew out South Florida, 45-0, as a 20-point home favorite.  In contrast, Mississippi State had to storm back from a 20 point, 4th quarter deficit to eke out a 35-34 win against Louisiana Tech.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the Bulldogs as a short home underdog on Saturday night.  But the Wolfpack are a wallet-busting 13-33 ATS on the road in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 8 points.  And Game 2 road favorites, off a double-digit home win the previous week, have cashed just 34.4% of non-conference games vs. winning opposition, dating back 32 seasons.  Finally, Mississippi State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in non-conference games at home, off a win, when not favored by 7+ points.  Grab the points with Mike Leach's Bulldogs on this Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans + the points over Liberty.  Troy smashed Southern U., 55-3, last Saturday, and has been installed as a home underdog vs. Liberty in this game.  The Flames went 10-1 last season, but this is their road opener for 2021.  And NCAA teams have cashed just 32.5% in their road openers if they won 87+ percent of their games the previous season, and were not favored by 7 or more points in the current game.  Take Troy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Penn State.  The Cardinals have been extremely profitable over the last 16 seasons when installed as an underdog of +3 (or more) points in regular season non-conference games, as they're 23-6 ATS.  And I love this situation on Saturday, as it's a potential scheduling "flat spot" for the Nittany Lions, as Penn State defeated then-No. 12-ranked Wisconsin last week, and has #25-ranked Auburn on deck.  Grab the points with Ball State.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders + the points over Virginia Tech.  Rick Stockstill's Blue Raiders blew out Monmouth last Saturday, 50-15, as an 8.5-point home favorite.  And they've now been installed as a big road underdog in Blacksburg against the Hokies.  We'll grab the points with Middle Tennessee, as underdogs of +14 (or more) points have gone 108-67 ATS in non-conference games off a win by more than 30 points in their previous game.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies shocked Georgia Tech in Atlanta last week, as they won, 22-21, as a 19-point road underdog.  But when you look through the final score to the stats, you'll notice that Georgia Tech actually out-yarded Northern Illinois 429 to 301.  The Huskies have been installed as a home underdog in this non-conference tilt vs. Wyoming.  Unfortunately for Thomas Hammock's Huskies, home dogs have covered just 29.4% over the last 32 seasons off an upset win as a 14-point (or greater) underdog, when matched up against a non-conference opponent off a SU win.  And Wyoming is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 vs. foes off an upset win.  Lay the points with the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Ohio State.  Both of these teams come into Columbus off wins to start the 2021 season.  Oregon downed Fresno St., 31-24, while Ohio State went into Minneapolis and defeated the Golden Gophers, 45-31.  The fact that Oregon struggled last week in its 7-point win will keep many bettors away from the Ducks this week.  It shouldn't.  Indeed, Game 2 non-conference underdogs of +20 or less points (or PK) have covered 66.1% over the last 32 seasons after failing to cover the spread in their opener against a non-conference foe, if they were now matched up against an opponent off a double-digit win.  Even better:  the Ducks are 44-31-2 ATS their last 77 off a point spread loss, including 19-11-1 ATS on the road.  And, finally, Pac-12 teams with a winning record have gone 45-19-1 ATS as an underdog vs. Big 10 foes.  Take Oregon + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Anaheim Angels.  Shohei Ohtani will surely win the American League MVP Award at season's end.  After all, he has 43 home runs at the plate, and a 9-1 record with a 2.97 ERA on the mound.  But we'll go against Ohtani tonight in Houston, as the Astros are a jaw-dropping 70-20 at home vs. division rivals.  The Astros have also dominated the better pitchers here at Minute Maid Park, as they're 34-12 their last 46 vs. pitchers who give up 5.5 (or less) hits per start.  Moreover, they're 19-5 vs. AL pitchers with an ERA of 3.40 (or better).  This will be Ohtani's 4th career start vs. Houston, and the Angels have lost each of the first three.  Even worse, Anaheim has been outscored 72-34 by the Astros in the 12 games played thus far this season.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals.  Huascar Ynoa has faced the Nationals twice already this season, and he held them without an earned run in each game (12 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 3 BB).  He'll match up against Washington's RHP, Erick Fedde, who has had virtually no success in his career vs. Atlanta.  He's made six starts against the Braves, and has an 0-4 record, with an ERA of 11.02, and a WHIP of 2.44.  Fedde took the mound last month here, in Atlanta, and surrendered 8 hits over 4 2/3 innings, in an 8-4 defeat.  The Nationals are a dreadful 26-57 (minus 18.8 games on the moneyline) as an underdog this season, and 2-9 their last 11 off a win.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Colorado Rockies.  When the Phillies desperately needed starting pitching help for the stretch drive, they got it from an unlikely source.  The youngster who stepped up was none other than a somewhat obscure 26-year-old Venezuelan southpaw reliever by the name of Ranger Suarez and he hasn't looked back so far in seven starts.  In 72 total innings this season, Suarez has logged an unreal 1.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP and in those seven starts covering 31 2/3 innings, the ERA isn't much higher at 1.77.  But perhaps more important for tonight is the fact that Suarez is 5-0 here at home vs. just 1-4 on the road so clearly Citizens Bank Park has agreed with him.  This will be his first career start against the Rockies, however in one relief outing covering three innings against them, Suarez was solid, allowing no earned runs on three hits.  The Rockies are 15-47 in their last 62 games as a road underdog and they are also 0-4 in their last four tries here in Philadelphia.  Take the Phillies.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays.  For LHP Nestor Cortes Jr. and the New York Yankees, the third time just might be the charm.  The 26-year-old Cuban southpaw was originally drafted by the Yanks out of Hialeah High School back in 2013 and he signed with them later that year.  But when Cortes wasn't placed on New York's 40-man-roster a few years later, the Orioles picked him up by way of the Rule 5 draft in 2017.  He was then returned to New York from Baltimore as part of another deal in 2018.  But his second stint in pinstripes didn't last long as Cortes was shipped off to Seattle before becoming a free agent and re-signing again with the Yanks this January.  And New York seems glad to have him back for a third time as Cortes has been a huge help in a rotation that's been scuffling in the second half.  In nine starts, Cortes is 2-2 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP and more importantly, the Yankees are 7-2 in those starts.  Take the Yankees.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Miami Marlins.  As goes Marcus Stroman, so go the Mets.  The Mets are sort of a hard luck team this season and Stroman is definitely the hardest of hard luck pitchers on their team and arguably in all of baseball.  The 30-year-old RH has assumed the role of ace throughout the long drawn-out absence of Jacob deGrom, a job many others in the league would wilt under.  But all Stroman has done this season is post a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in a league leading 29 starts covering 156 2/3 innings.  But for whatever reason, Stroman has only managed nine wins to go with 12 losses.  He hasn't won since a 7-2 decision over the Dodgers back on August 22, but the Mets have been victorious in each of his last three starts.  And in true Marcus Stroman fashion, the Mets have won his two starts over the Marlins this season even though he is winless in both (his only two career starts vs. the Fish). Despite their loss here last night, the Mets are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. losing teams.  Take New York.

At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the LA Dodgers over St. Louis.  Tony Gonsolin will make his return today after being shelved for shoulder inflammation.  He's expected to throw 3 innings, and 50 or so pitches, before giving way to the Dodgers' league-leading bullpen.  Jake Woodford will take the mound for the Redbirds, and he's been largely ineffective in his starts this year.  His ERA is almost 6 runs per game (5.93), while his WHIP is a bloated 1.68.  The Dodgers are 9-0 their last nine off a loss, and I look for them to bounce back off yesterday's 1-run defeat.  Take Los Angeles.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Angels.  Yu Darvish will get the ball for the Padres tonight, and he'll be looking to help the Padres bounce back from last night's 4-0 loss.  Improbably, the Padres (and starter) Blake Snell, had no-hit the Angels through 6 2/3 innings.  But the Angels broke through with 2 runs in the 7th, and tacked on 2 runs in the 9th for the win.  San Diego managed just three hits in the game, but falls into a great situation tonight.  Major League teams are 57-7 their last 64 when favored by -200 (or more) if they didn't get an extra base hit in their previous game.  Combine that with the fact that Darvish is 9-3 in his career vs. the Angels, with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, and we have all the ammunition to pull the trigger on the Padres as a big home favorite this evening.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays.  The good news for Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi is that he has racked up 10 wins this season.  And even when he's not picking up a W, the Sox are still winning when Eovaldi goes to the mound.  They are 4-1 in his last five starts dating back to August 11, a game in which Boston defeated this Rays squad, 20-8.  And they're 6-1 his last seven home starts.  In fact, in two previous starts vs. Tampa here at Fenway Park this season, Eovaldi is 2-0 and has allowed just two runs on six hits in 14 innings with 17 strikeouts and four walks.  And the combined score of those two victories was 29-10.  Meanwhile, the Rays are 0-4 in Shane McClanahan's last four road starts against winning teams.  And they've lost those four games by 2.75 runs per game.  So, even though Tampa has had Boston's number in this series, we'll take the Red Sox to win the 3rd game of this 3-game set.  Take Boston.  As always good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Chicago White Sox.  The A's will be looking to bounce back off a forgettable series in Toronto where they gave up 29 runs over three games.  The good news for Bob Melvin's men tonight is that righty James Kaprielian will be on the mound.  The rookie is 7-4 this season with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.  And at home, those numbers improve to 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.  He'll face another rookie tonight in Chicago's Jimmy Lambert (0-1, 9.00 ERA), who will make his 3rd start of the season after facing the Indians in his first two.  Chicago is an awful 35-61 (minus 20.2 net games on the moneyline) as a road underdog of +150 (or less), including 9-24 its last 33 on the road.  Meanwhile, the A's are 45-17 vs. AL Central opponents, and 91-46 (+20.9 net games) as a home favorite.  Take Oakland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners.  With 23 starts now on his ledger for 2021, you could say this is a career season for Houston RH Lance McCullers, Jr. -- at least in terms of durability.  The oft-injured 27-year-old never had more than 22 starts before this season, and one more win would also give McCullers a career high in that category as well (2018; 10-6).  In those 23 starts covering just over 132 innings, McCullers is 10-4 with a 3.20 ERA and a 10.5 strikeout rate.  This will be his fourth start of the year vs. the M's, and in his three previous, McCullers has gone 2-0 with a very nice 3.18 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 17 innings.  His career numbers vs. Seattle are arguably even better: 9-3 with a 2.78 ERA in 17 starts covering 97 innings.  Heading into this series, the Mariners are 14-37 in the last 51 meetings and 20-45 in the last 65 in Houston.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays.  Thanks to an unlikely performance by the Baltimore Orioles -- they took two of three from the Yanks in the Bronx -- the Red Sox have climbed to within a half-game of New York in the standings.  Of course the Sox did their part as well this weekend, taking two of three from the Indians.  Now they have southpaw ace Chris Sale going in Game 1 of this critical series against the Rays.  Sale has done little wrong after returning from his recovery from Tommy John surgery.  In four starts covering 21 1/3 innings, Sale is 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 24 strikeouts vs. only five walks.  Sale is likely still building up his arm strength and it's a scary thought that he might only be 70% or so of where he can eventually get back to.   And Sale's career record vs. the Rays is another reason why Boston can be optimistic today.  In 21 games vs. Tampa (19 starts) covering 128 1/3 innings, Sale is 10-6 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.  Take the Red Sox.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays.  The Yankees went into their weekend series likely thinking what a great opportunity it was to add three more notches in the win column.  After all, they were playing the lowly Orioles at home and after a Friday night victory, the sweep must have seemed close enough to reach out and grab.  And perhaps that was precisely the problem and the reason why New York dropped the next two games.  Now the Yanks come into this four game set against the Jays probably feeling like they have to win at least three if they're going to have any chance of catching the Rays.  RHP Jameson Taillon takes his 8-5 record and 4.44 ERA into his 27th start this afternoon.  The Yanks have won eight of his last nine starts going back to the beginning of the second half.  The Jays are also 0-4 in the last four meetings with the Yankees, and 8-18 in their last 26 here in the Bronx.  Take the Yankees.

At 4:10, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the San Diego Padres.  The Astros' Luis Garcia has pitched himself right into the mix for the AL Rookie of the Year.  Texas outfielder Adolis Garcia might be the favorite for the annual award, but Luis has to be considered the top pitching candidate for the honors.  In 25 games -- including 23 starts -- covering 128 1/3 innings, the 24-year-old Venezuelan RH is 10-6 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  Garcia could've gotten dejected when his team lost each of his first five starts through May 10.  But the youngster kept his cool (he was still pitching well, posting a 3.60 ERA over that span) and since that time, he's gone 10-3 while the 'Stros have won 14 of his 18 starts, including each of his last five.  This will be Garcia's first ever start vs. the Padres who will go with veteran RHP Chris Paddack.  Paddack has really struggled this season, posting a 4.98 ERA to go with his 7-6 record in 21 games (20 starts) covering 97 2/3 innings.  The Padres are 7-22 in their last 29 as a home underdog.  Take the 'Stros.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Colorado Rockies.  When veteran RHP Charlie Morton signed with the Rays at the end of 2018 for a relatively inexpensive price and proceeded to go 16-6 and make his second consecutive All Star team, it seemed he might finish his career in Tampa.  But after Morton regressed in the shortened 2020 season -- the second of his two year contract -- the Rays let him walk instead of re-signing him.  Well, Tampa's loss seems to be Atlanta's gain as the Braves signed Morton at the exact same rate he had been paid down in Florida and now Morton is having another outstanding campaign.  In 27 starts covering 151 innings, the 37-year-old is 12-5 with a 3.52 ERA and he's once again anchoring the rotation of a first-place team.  Start number 28 will come in the place that many pitchers dread but for a solid veteran like Morton, pitching at Coors Field is likely not all that intimidating.  Despite their loss on Saturday, the Braves are 11-2 in their last 13 road games vs. losing teams.  Take Atlanta.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Baltimore Orioles.  The roller coaster ride that has been RH Corey Kluber's 2021 season -- his first with the Yankees -- has somewhat mirrored that of his entire career.  After his first four starts in Pinstripes, the 35-year-old former Cleveland ace was 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA.  But right after that Kluber went on a tear in which he won four of five starts, threw a no-hitter -- in Texas -- and dropped his ERA down to 2.86.  That was the end of May, and right after that, Kluber had to leave his next start and proceeded to hit the 60-day IL with a strained shoulder.  The Yanks are no doubt happy to have Kluber back in the rotation and this afternoon he will try to start another win streak against the lowly Orioles.  Kluber has done the best work of his career in the afternoons as in 82 day games (81 starts) the veteran is 40-20 with a 2.99 ERA in 520 innings.  Additionally, in nine career starts vs. the O's covering 62 innings, Kluber is 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  Take New York.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Illinois.  The Illini kicked off the Bret Bielema era with a 30-22 upset win over Nebraska, and will look to make it 2-in-a-row for their new head coach.  On Saturday night, Texas-San Antonio will come into Champaign, and it will look to continue the success it had last season (7-5 SU and 7-4 ATS).  Even better, the Roadrunners are 10-3 ATS their last 13 in the underdog role, while Illinois is a nasty 27-46 ATS its last 73 as a favorite (compared to 11-7 its last 18 as an underdog).  And since 1980, Big 10 Conference teams have covered just 31% of their non-conference games off an upset conference win.  Take Texas San Antonio + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  The Brewers had a chance for a four game sweep against the team with the best record in the Majors last night, but they had to settle for a 3-1 series win against the Giants.  That's still not too shabby and should give Milwaukee an extra confidence boost as it heads into the final stretch drive.  An NL Central division title is looking more and more certain now as the Crew holds a double-digit lead over the Reds.  Tonight's opponent -- the Cards -- are in third place and desperately trying to gain a Wild Card spot.  25-year-old RHP Freddy Peralta goes in his 23rd start of the season tonight and he has been one of the National League's most consistent starters this season.  He is 9-3 with a 2.45 ERA and .940 WHIP in just over 121 innings coming into tonight.  Peralta has been particularly dominant at Miller Park throughout his career.  In 47 games here -- including 20 starts -- he is 14-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 161 innings.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals are a dismal 4-17 (minus 11.7 net games) when priced from +125 to +175 on the road.  Take the Brewers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Milwaukee Brewers.  Eric Lauer was the main player involved in the 2019 trade which sent Trent Grisham and Zach Davies to the Padres.  After a forgettable 2020 season (0-2 with a 13.09 ERA in four games -- two starts) Lauer has bounced back nicely this season.  In 18 games -- 14 starts -- covering just over 82 innings, the 26-year-old Brewers RHP is 4-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 82 strikeouts.  Start number 15 will come against the Giants this afternoon, but it's against one of the hottest pitchers in baseball.  San Francisco's Logan Webb has led his team to wins in 12 of his last 13 starts, with his lone loss to these Brewers and Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes.  Milwaukee won that game on August 6 by a 2-1 score, but Webb gave up just 1 run over six innings, and struck out nine.  Indeed, he's given up 2 runs or less in each of his last 13 starts, for a spectacular 1.47 ERA.  I look for Webb to avenge that defeat as he has a 1.75 ERA in eight home starts this season.  Meanwhile, the Brewers have lost Lauer's last four starts vs. winning teams, while the Giants are 21-5 at home when priced from -150 to -200.  Take the Giants.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.