Sports Picks & Predictions

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Angels.  The New York Yankees have found out recently how streaky this game of baseball can be.  The Yanks put together a 13-game win streak between August 14 and 27 and just as quickly as that one came, a new three-game losing streak has arrived courtesy of the A's and Angels.  New York will try to stop the recent bleeding tonight, turning to veteran RHP Jameson Taillon in the process.  The 29-year-old former Pirate is 8-4 with a 4.18 ERA in 25 starts covering 127 innings.  Taillon only won one game so far in August (five starts) but more important is the fact that the Yankees have been victorious in 11 of his last 12 trips to the mound going back to June 24 (and they've won his last eight).  This was Shohei Ohtani's turn in the rotation, but he is not going to face the Yankees as a pitcher in this series (he will still DH) due to a sore wrist.  Instead, Jaime Barria (5.56 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) will be on the hill for the Halos, and his career ERA vs. the Yankees is 7.20.  Despite their loss here on Monday, the Yanks are still 12-6 in the last 18 meetings and 6-2 in the last eight in Anaheim.  And they're 57-27 (+17 games on the moneyline) in nighttime games this season.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the St. Louis Cardinals.  This is a critical divisional matchup, as the Reds currently hold the 2nd wild card berth, but sit just 1.5 games ahead of San Diego, and 3.5 games ahead of St. Louis.  After getting off to a slow start in April and May, Castillo is starting to round into form, as he has given up just 6 runs over his last three outings (2.70 ERA).  And he's allowed 3 runs or less in 15 of his last 16 starts (2.81 ERA).  The Reds have excelled as a favorite of -150 (or more), as they're 22-10 their last 32 (and 48-26 their last 74), including 20-7 (+6.2 net games) when priced from -175 to -250 at home.  Meanwhile, St. Louis is a poor 11-23 as an underdog of +150 (or more).  Take the Reds.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Kansas City Royals.  This matchup will feature Seattle southpaw Marco Gonzales vs. KC righty Brady Singer.  And, in one respect, they're going in opposite directions.  Gonzales has won his last four decisions, and has a 2.18 ERA over his last eight outings.  In contrast, Singer has lost his last five decisions, and has a 7.78 ERA his last four trips to the mound.  Gonzales was last on the hill six days ago when Seattle defeated Oakland, 5-3, so he'll be pitching with an extra day of rest.  And Seattle is 8-0 in his home starts, when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest.  Take the Mariners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Minnesota.  The Twins have taken the first two games of this 3-game series, with wins behind southpaws Charlie Barnes and Andrew Albers.  This afternoon, Minnesota will hand the ball to righty Griffin Jax, and that bodes especially well for Craig Counsell's men, as Milwaukee is 63-37 (+17.2 net games on the moneyline) vs. righties this season (compared to 15-15, minus 6.5 net games, vs. lefties).  And it's 36-17 (+15.4 net games) in daytime action (compared to 42-35 at night, minus 4.7 net games).  After an inauspicious debut on June 30 (2/3 inning, 7 runs), Brewers rookie southpaw Aaron Ashby bounced back nicely, and did not allow a run over his next two starts.  We'll take Milwaukee behind its top prospect this afternoon, as the Twins have been awful this season vs. lefties (14-29, minus 20.3 net games).  Take the Brewers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the San Francisco Giants.  This matchup will feature Braves righty Ian Anderson against SF's Anthony DeSclafani.  Anderson will return from a stint on the injured list for his 19th start this season.  He has a nice 3.56 ERA, but experienced inflammation in his throwing shoulder right before the All-Star break, so he was shelved.  DeSclafani has been trending downward, as he hasn't had a quality start in any of his last four outings (13 1/3 innings, 10 runs, 6.75 ERA, 1.87 WHIP).  Moreover, he's faced the Braves three times in Atlanta in his career, and his teams are 0-3, while his ERA is 5.68.  With Atlanta an awesome 99-56 (+30.1 net games) as a favorite of -150 (or less), we'll take Atlanta as a short favorite this afternoon.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Miami Marlins.  Cincy righty Tyler Mahle has been electric on the road this season, as he has a 7-1 record in 14 starts, with a 1.72 ERA, and a 0.99 WHIP.  This afternoon, he'll face a Marlins team which has dropped 11 of the last 13 to the Reds.  Miami will send southpaw Jesus Luzardo to the hill this afternoon.  Luzardo certainly has great talent, but he's yet to put it together in the bigs, with a 7.51 ERAand 1.84 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Even worse, his numbers have declined as the season has worn on.  In his last four starts, he's allowed 21 runs on 27 hits and 14 walks, over 17 1/3 innings (10.90 ERA; 2.36 WHIP).  Take Cincinnati.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over the LA Chargers.  Seattle's offense has heretofore been moribund this preseason, as it's scored a total of 10 points in its first two games.  But I expect it to breakout on this Saturday night, as NFL teams off back to back games where they scored less than 12 points have covered 70% in the preseason over the last 29+ years.  Take the Seahawks minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies.  Jon Gray will toe the rubber for Colorado tonight, while lefty David Price will start for Dave Roberts' crew.  Gray has been horrible over his last three starts, as he has a 7.72 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP.  And he can't use Coors Field as an excuse, as two of those three starts were away from home.  Tonight, he'll pitch at Dodger Stadium, where he has a 1-6 record in eight starts, and a 6.37 ERA and 1.72 WHIP.  Meanwhile, Price has a 3.17 ERA in his 20 games at Dodger Stadium.  With LA 97-29 (+25.3 games on the moneyline) as a favorite of -200 (or more), we'll take David Price tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Denver.  The Rams opened up their preseason with 2 home games, and lost both.  And they only scored 22 points combined in those two losses.  Meanwhile, the Broncos opened up with two road games, and won two blowouts, as they scored a combined 63 points.  With the Broncos now playing their first home game, and the Rams now playing their first road game, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the 2-0 Broncos here, at home.  And it seems like that's what most bettors are doing, as this line opened at -6 and is now significantly higher.  But it’s extremely dangerous to lay more than 7 points in the Preseason, as NFL teams getting 7.5 or more points have gone 40-18 ATS since 1983.  Take the Rams.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Houston.  The defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers dropped their second straight preseason contest last week, and it was an ugly blowout loss in front of their home faithful.  Tampa Bay scored just 3 points last week vs. the Tennessee Titans, and lost by 31 points.  But that defeat should serve as prime motivation on Saturday vs. Houston.  Indeed, when you look at how defending Super Bowl champs do in the preseason, a clear dichotomy emerges.  When the defending champs are off a straight-up win, they’re a horrible 22-39-2 ATS in their next preseason game.  But when the defending champs are off a straight-up loss, they’re 32-23-2 ATS.  That bodes well for Tampa Bay in this game.  As does the fact that NFL teams have cashed 66% in the preseason off back to back losses, if they were defeated in their previous game by 25 or more points.  Take the Buccaneers.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over Atlanta.  This will be Logan Webb's 19th start of the season, and the Giants have won 14 of them, including 11 of the last 12, and 5-3 (+3.8 net games) when installed as an underdog.  More good news:  Webb will be pitching with an extra day of rest, and San Francisco is a perfect 6-0 when he's worked with an extra day or two of rest.  Finally, Webb's career ERA when starting against Atlanta is 1.50 (with a 0.66 WHIP).  Take the Giants.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Minnesota.  This will be the fifth start for Twins lefty, Charlie Barnes, who has a 6.75 ERA over his first four trips to the mound.  In his last start, he gave up 8 hits and 5 walks in 5 innings, in a 10-2 Twins loss.  In contrast, Milwaukee's Adrian Houser has been on fire, with a 0.61 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over his last three outings.  With Milwaukee 42-22 on the road this season (including 8-2 with Houser), we'll take the Brewers.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over Detroit.  The Tigers have been installed as a sizable home underdog this evening.  Unfortunately, they're 29-62 (minus 14.2 net games) as a home underdog of +125 (or more).  And they're 86-166 (minus 38.4 games) vs. righties.  The Tigers will activate righty Jose Urena off the injured list today to make this start.  But his stats don't inspire confidence (2-8, 6.19 ERA, 1.65 WHIP this year; 5.79 ERA last year).  Take Toronto.

At 4:10 pm our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Kansas City.  Seattle's lefty, Tyler Anderson, will battle fellow lefty, Daniel Lynch, in this afternoon game.  Anderson faced KC earlier this season, and held the Royals to 1 run over 6 innings.  He also has a 2.16 ERA over his last three starts, and has a 3.15 ERA in his eight daytime starts this season.  Lynch will be making his 10th start of the season, and has a 6.48 ERA on the road, along with a 1.56 WHIP.  Take Seattle.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the New York Yankees.  Frankie Montas will get the ball for the A's today, and will look to end his team's six-game losing streak.  It will be the 26th start of the season for Montas.  And he'll face New York's lefty, Nestor Cortes, who will be making his eighth start of the season.  Outside of a bad start on June 21 at Texas (8 runs in 5 2/3 innings), Montas has been extremely consistent.  He's allowed 3 earned runs or less in his other 13 starts since May 29, and has a 2.00 ERA over his last three outings.  With the price on this game near PK'em, the value is clearly on Oakland's side here, at home, as it's 110-69 (+19.7 games on the moneyline) at home, including 42-28 (+13 net games) when priced from -125 to +125 (and Montas is 10-4 in this situation).  Moreover, the A's are 74-36 (+30.3 games on the moneyline) vs. lefties, while New York is 19-26 (minus 17.4 games) in daytime action.  Take the A's.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the New York Yankees.  Last night, the Yankees won their 12th straight game, 7-6, at Oakland.  We'll take the A's to bounce back tonight, as the Yankees are a wallet-busting 28-27 (but MINUS 16.7 games on the moneyline) as a road favorite priced -125 (or worse).  Meanwhile, Oakland is a profitable 48-44 (but PLUS 13.9 net games) as an underdog of +150 (or less).  And they're 38-23 (+12.9 net games) at home with Sean Manaea on the mound.  Take the A's as a home dog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Minnesota.  In this battle of lefties, we'll take Milwaukee's Eric Lauer on the road vs. the Twins' Andrew Albers.  Milwaukee is 42-21 (+17.4 games on the moneyline) on the road this season, including 20-8 when priced -150 (or less), while the Twins are 13-28 (minus 20.5 games) vs. lefties.  Take the Brewers.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Panthers mustered just 3 first half points vs. Baltimore last week, and fell, 20-3, to the Ravens.  They'll try to rebound tonight against a Steelers team which is 3-0 in the preseason.  Pittsburgh has announced it will start 3rd string QB Dwayne Haskins.  In the first three games, the Steelers showcased 2nd stringer Mason Rudolph, but neither he, nor 1st string QB Ben Roethlisberger, will play tonight in the finale.  And the Steelers will also sit top RB Najee Harris, so Benny Snell will get an extended look this evening.  On the Carolina side, first string QB Sam Darnold will suit up for this game, and should play at least the first half, along with most of the starters (though not RB Christian McCaffrey).  We'll lay the points with the Panthers, as they're 8-2 ATS in the preseason off a loss.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Detroit Tigers.  Southpaw Steven Matz will get a second crack at the Tigers after facing them last week in a 5-3 loss.  Still, Matz pitched very well, as he gave up just 1 run over 6 innings.  And he's allowed just 3 earned runs over his last four games (1.24 ERA).  He'll face Detroit's righty, Matt Manning, who has a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts, and a 5.90 ERA on the season.  That bodes well for Toronto, which is 21-6 vs. AL starting pitchers with an ERA of 5.90 (or worse).  Take Toronto.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  We played on the Padres last night, and lost, 5-3, in extra innings (at 16 innings, it was the longest game played in the current extra innings format).  Tonight, it will be a match-up between Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish.  We'll take the Padres as a home underdog, as Darvish is 2-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.59 WHIP vs. Los Angeles in his career.  And when these two pitchers matched up here in San Diego last month (when Scherzer was with Washington), the Padres rocked Scherzer for 7 runs in 3 2/3 innings.  Take Darvish and the Padres.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  In his last start, former Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell took the loss vs. Philly, but pitched relatively well.  Indeed, over his four August starts, the San Diego southpaw struck out at least six in each game, and hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of them, for a 2.45 ERA.  Moreover, he's been very effective vs. the Dodgers this season.  In three starts, Snell's allowed just 4 runs over 15 1/3 innings (2.34 ERA), including 5 innings of scoreless ball his last time out vs. Los Angeles.  Finally, over the last three seasons, Los Angeles has dominated right-handed starters (171-85 (+29.7 games on the moneyline), but is unprofitable vs. lefties.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over Chicago.  Lefty Robbie Ray will take the mound for the Jays on Wednesday, and he has given up 2 earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts, covering 58 2-3 innings (1.84 ERA).  Even better:  in those nine games, Ray has struck out 65, while he's walked just 15, and allowed just 38 hits (0.90 WHIP).  In his last start against Chicago, back in early June, he struck out a season-high 13 batters (against 0 walks), and he allowed just 1 run over 6 1-3 innings.  Take the Blue Jays.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Tampa Bay Rays.  This series represents a repeat of the 2008 World Series, won by the Phillies.  They were the better team that year for sure, but the Rays might just be better than them in 2021 and almost certainly have a better chance of getting back to the Fall Classic as of this writing.  Zack Wheeler will go in his 26th start of the season for the home team tonight.  The 31-year-old RHP is having his best season in the Majors with a 10-8 record, a 2.77 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and a league-leading three complete games (two shutouts) and 194 strikeouts.  And Wheeler was named an All Star for the first time in his seven campaigns in the Majors.  In two previous starts vs. AL teams in 2021, Wheeler is 1-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with 26 strikeouts and seven hits allowed in 14 1/3 innings.  Finally, the Rays are only 4-7 in the last 11 meetings with the Phillies here at Citizens Bank Park.  Take Philadelphia.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Kansas City Royals.  Luis Garcia is a second-year rookie starter for the Astros who is quietly making a case for AL Rookie of the Year consideration.  In 23 games -- including 21 starts -- the 24-year-old RH is is 9-6 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 137 strikeouts in just under 117 innings. Those are very solid numbers for someone who is no better than a number three starter for his team.  Start number 22 will come tonight and it will be his second straight outing vs. the Royals.  The key to tonight's start however is that it will be at home, as he faced them in Kansas City in his last start last Thursday.  In 12 games here at Minute Maid Park (10 starts), Garcia is 5-3 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 62 1/3 innings.  In 11 starts on the road, he is 4-3 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings.  Houston is 12-6 its last 18 vs. KC, and is 12-4 in Garcia's last 16 starts going back to May 15.  And Houston is a perfect 7-0 with Garcia at home when the total was less than 9 runs.  Meanwhile, the Royals are 8-14 (minus 4.9 games on the moneyline) off a win by more than 5 runs, and 30-46 (minus 7.4 games) after not allowing 3+ runs.  Take the Astros.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  Last week, the 49ers were upset at home, 19-16, by Kansas City, while the Chargers won at the Rams, 13-6, as a 3.5-point favorite.  Dating back to 1989, NFL teams (like the 49ers) off home upset defeats have covered 79% vs. foes off a SU/ATS win as a road favorite.  That bodes well for San Francisco tonight.  As does the fact that road teams have been dominant this preseason, as they've gone 21-7 ATS, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when favored by 6 or less.  Finally, the Chargers are an awful 4-11 ATS as a home underdog, while the Niners are 9-1 on the road off a SU/ATS home loss. Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the San Francisco Giants.  This afternoon represents the rubber game in the latest battle for bragging rights in the Bay Area.  The A's took Game 1 of this series on Friday and then the Giants responded yesterday, scoring two in the top of the ninth for a 6-5 road victory.  Frankie Montas gets the call today for the home team.  The 28-year-old has had a very nice bounce-back campaign in 2021 after stinking things up in the shortened 2020 season (3-5 with a 5.60 ERA in 11 starts).  In 24 starts this season, Montas is 9-9 with a 4.04 ERA in 136 innings.  This will be Montas' second career start vs. the Giants as he pitched well in a no-decision on June 21 of this season.  The A's have won three of Montas' last four starts and he has done his best work this season in day games going 3-2 with a 3.40 ERA in seven afternoon starts vs. just 6-7 and 4.30 in 17 under the lights.  Despite their win last night, the Giants are 4-7 in the last 11 meetings with the A's.  Take Oakland.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The Cards' Adam Wainwright has dominated Pittsburgh in his career.  In 45 games -- including 39 starts -- covering just over 250 innings vs. the Bucs, Wainwright has a record of 19-7.  He'll be going for victory number 20 against them this afternoon.  He's also going to try to prevent what would be an embarrassing three-game sweep at the hands of one of the worst teams in the league at home as the Pirates took both Friday's and Saturday's contests.  Wainwright has been one of a very few bright spots for a 2021 Cards team that most people made the favorite to win the NL Central.  The 39-year-old RHP is 11-7 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 24 starts covering 154 2/3 innings and he leads the league in complete games (3).  The Cards have won Wainwright's last six starts vs. Pittsburgh going back to July 2019.  Take St. Louis.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Cleveland Browns.  The Giants lost, 12-7, last week to their rival, the New York Jets.  But I love the Giants to bounce back today vs. a Cleveland team off an upset win, 23-13, over Jacksonville.  For technical support, consider that, through Friday's action, NFL preseason underdogs have gone 17-0-1 ATS their last 18 if they gave up 13.5 (or less) points per game.  And NFL preseason favorites of more than 4 points off an upset road win have covered just 36% since 1983 vs. foes off a SU loss.  The Browns are 2-8 ATS in the preseason off a double-digit win, while the Giants are 23-13-2 ATS as an underdog away from home, if they didn't own a winning record.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over the Denver Broncos.  Seattle was blitzed, 20-7, last week by the Raiders, while Denver drilled Minnesota, 33-6.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Broncos tonight.  But dating back to 1991, underdogs off a double-digit loss have covered 61.8% in the preseason vs. foes off a double-digit win.  Moreover, NFL favorites of -4.5 (or more) points have covered just 30.4% in the preseason off a 20-point (or greater) win.  Take Seattle + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Last week, the Rams sat 38 players, and lost, 13-6, at home to the cross-town Chargers.  One of the things I like to do in the preseason is play on home dogs to rebound off home SU/ATS losses, as they've covered 78% the past 22 seasons.  That bodes well for the Rams tonight.  As does the fact that preseason underdogs with a defensive ppg average of 13.5 (or less) points are 17-0-1 ATS their last 18.  Take Los Angeles + the points.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies.  There's no question that Aaron Nola is the ace of the Phillies staff.  But when you're an ace on a team vying for a Division Title, you better pitch like one.  And Nola hasn't exactly been doing that lately.  Nola looked like he might be breaking out of his funk with two very strong starts to end the month of July.  But August has seen a return to mediocrity for the 28-year-old RHP and now the Phillies have surrendered the NL East lead to the red-hot Braves. Veteran righty Joe Musgrove gets the ball for Jayce Tingler's Padres tonight, and his career ERA vs. Philly is 1.50.  Even better:  in 12 home starts this season, Musgrove has a 2.43 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, while Nola's road ERA in 13 starts is 5.56.  Take San Diego.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  Last week, the Ravens won their 18th straight preseason game, 17-14, over New Orleans.  That fact will keep many bettors off the Panthers side today, but not me.  Indeed, what was more interesting to me was that the Ravens were out-yarded by the Saints, but benefited greatly from six New Orleans' turnovers (3 fumbles, 3 interceptions).  Yet, even with those miscues, the Saints only trailed for 9 min 13 secs of the game.  Here, the Ravens will take on a Carolina team which lost, 21-18, last week to the Colts.  But the Panthers only trailed for seven seconds of that game.  There's way too much value on the Carolina side tonight, as a home underdog.  Take the points.

At 4:25 pm, on the NFL Network, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over the New York Jets.  Both Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers will miss this preseason game, which means ex-Atlanta Falcons QB Kurt Benkert will lead the way for Green Bay.  On the other sideline, it will be ex-BYU QB Zach Wilson at the helm.  Notwithstanding the absence of their top 2 signal callers, there's still a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball for Matt LeFleur's Packers.  And it's hard to pass up Green Bay as a home underdog, given how disappointing it played last week vs. Houston.  The Texans upset the Packers, 26-7, as a 3-point road underdog.  But preseason home dogs have generally bounced back off home SU/ATS losses, as they've cashed 78% over the last 22 years.  Even better:  the Packers are 34-17 ATS their last 51 preseason home games.  Take the Packers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Houston.  Logan Gilbert has been the 2nd most profitable pitcher in baseball this season (from a betting perspective), as the Mariners are 11-5 in his 16 starts (+9.2 games on the moneyline).  Jake Odorizzi, on the other hand, has not rewarded his backers, as he is 7-9, minus 3.9 games on the moneyline this season.  For the season, the Astros' righty has an ERA north of five runs a game, while his ERA over his last three starts is 6.75.  Take Seattle as a road underdog.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Washington Nationals.  The Brewers have been dominant over the years as a big favorite, as they're now 73-18 (+32.1 games on the moneyline) when priced at -200 (or more).  They'll hand the ball to lefty Eric Lauer this afternoon.  And he's been on fire of late, as he's given up just 3 earned runs over his last six starts (0.83 ERA; 0.89 WHIP).   In stark contrast, Washington's Paolo Espino's ERA over his last three starts is 10.80, with a 2.10 WHIP.  And his season ERA in his road starts is 6.51.  Take Milwaukee.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over Detroit.  Wily Peralta has been installed as a big underdog this afternoon, which does not bode well for the Tigers, as his teams are 1-12 with him on the mound, when priced from +175 to +250.  Meanwhile, the Jays are 12-3 their last 15 as a home favorite of -200 (or more), and 29-15 (+9.8 games on the moneyline) in day games this season.  Finally, Hyun-Jin Ryu's teams are 11-0 their last 11 as a home favorite of -200 (or more) in his starts.  Take Toronto.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Chicago White Sox.  Last night, the Rays' 4-game win streak was snapped, as they lost in extra inning to the ChiSox.  But we'll take Tampa to bounce back this afternoon, as Chicago's Dallas Keuchel owns a 2-5 record in his nine starts vs. Tampa (his teams are 3-6).  Even worse for Keuchel:  he has a 4.84 ERA on the road this season, and a 5.51 ERA in his daytime starts.  In contrast, Luis Patino's home ERA is 2.04, while his ERA in daytime games is 1.54.  Take Tampa.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies.  It's a battle of southpaws tonight, as Blake Snell will face Matt Moore.  We'll take San Diego's former Cy Young Award winner, as he's been pitching very well of late.  In his last three starts, Snell as a 1.59 ERA, and he's struck out 25 against just 14 hits and eight walks.  Snell's done his best work at home this season, as he has a 2.40 ERA here, in San Diego.  Meanwhile, the Phillies hurler has a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts, and owns a 7.36 career ERA vs. the Padres. Finally, the Phils are a dreadful 36-59 as a road underdog (minus 11.7 games on the moneyline), while Snell's teams are 42-20 (+15.8 games) in his home starts, including 21-5 when priced at -150 (or more).  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Washington Nationals.  What the Brewers have done this season is pretty remarkable -- they lead their division by almost 10 games -- especially given the fact that few people expected them to be contenders.  And this performance is even more remarkable when you consider that their best offensive player -- OF Christian Yelich -- has been underperforming most of the season and really hasn't contributed much at all.  The 2018 NL MVP is batting just .232 with six home runs, 32 RBI and a .734 OPS.  Speaking of under-achievers, the Nats have had almost too many to mention this season which led to their decision to pretty much dismantle the team at the trade deadline.  LHP Brett Anderson will go for the Brew Crew tonight.  And, although not pitching as well as Milwaukee's three aces, the 33-year-old has been more than serviceable at the back end of the rotation with a 4.09 ERA in 18 starts.  The Nats are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings, and 1-6 in the last seven here in Milwaukee. Take the Brewers.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Detroit Tigers.  From the time Robbie Ray came into the league, baseball people would say, "if he could only fix his control issues..."  The hard-throwing southpaw's walk rate over the last three seasons heading into 2021 had been 5.1 (2018), 4.3 (2019), and 7.8 (2020).  But 2021 has finally seen a breakthrough.  The now-29-year-old has a walk rate this season of 2.4,  And as a result, Ray is enjoying his best campaign since his 2017 All Star season.  In 23 starts covering just over 137 innings, Ray is 9-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.  This will be only Ray's second career start vs. the Tigers who are just 33-77 in their last 110 road games vs. winning teams.  Meanwhile, the Jays are 21-5 in their last 26 home games vs. teams with losing records.  Finally, Detroit is just 6-14 in the last 20 meetings in Toronto.  Take the Blue Jays.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the New England Patriots.  In Week 1, Bill Belichick's men rolled over Washington at Foxborough, 22-13, as a 2-point home favorite.  Meanwhile, the Eagles were upset here, at home, last week by Pittsburgh.  Philly was favored by 1 point, but lost, 24-16.   But I love the Eagles to bounce back in this 2nd straight game before their home faithful.  Indeed, since 1986, home teams have cashed 72.2% following an upset home loss to open the preseason, if their opponent was off a win.  Even better:  New England is a wallet-busting 0-8 ATS as a preseason road favorite (or PK) since 2006.  Take the Eagles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Miami Marlins.  Tonight begins a four-game set between the Marlins and Reds in Cincinnati and the question for Game 1 is "which version of Luis Castillo will show up?"  Will it be the one who went 4-0 with a 1.75 ERA in a stretch of eight starts between June 26 and August 4?  Or will it be the pitcher who's gone 0-2 with a 9.90 ERA in his last two starts (against the Indians and Phillies).  I'm betting it will be the first version for a very simple reason.  Those last two starts were on the road, but Castillo is back home tonight at Great American Park where he has done by far his best work this season.  In 12 starts here, the 28-year-old RH is 4-5 with a 3.72 ERA vs. just 2-7 and 5.27 in 13 starts on the road.  Moreover, in four career starts vs. Miami, covering 29 1/3 innings, Castillo is 3-0 with a sparkling 1.84 ERA and 0.75 WHIP.  Miami is also 2-5 in the last seven meetings here in Cincinnati.  Take the Reds.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  We played on the Phillies last night, and lost a 4-2 decision.  But we will come right back with them this afternoon in this "Getaway Day" game.  Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phils, and he's been terrific all season.  In 2021, he has a 2.56 ERA and a sparkling 0.98 WHIP in 24 starts.  Even better:  in his seven career starts vs. Arizona, he is 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.  The Phillies are a solid 28-16 (+13.5 games on the moneyline) in daytime action this season, while Arizona is a wallet-busting 11-28 in day games.  Take the Phillies.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Chicago White Sox.  You can add Cole Irvin's name to the list of pitchers who the Oakland A's have resurrected off the Major League scrap heap and turned into serviceable starters.  Sure, Irvin's 8-11 record and 3.52 ERA in 23 starts may not sound like the stuff of aces, but for a back-end starter, who showed nothing of the sort in his first two seasons in the league (with the Phillies), his numbers this year look pretty darn good.  And Irvin has performed better this season both on the road (3.30 ERA in 11 starts) and at night (3.27 ERA) than he has at home, and during the day.  This will be Irvin's first-ever start against the Sox, and hence his first start at Guaranteed Rate Field.  The Sox will go with RH Dylan Cease, who earned a no-decision last weekend vs. the Yankees.  The A's are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a RH starter, and 42-15 vs. their last 57 vs. AL Central foes.  Take Oakland.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Last night, the D-Backs won 3-2, behind five strong innings (1 ER, 5K) from Taylor Widener, and a big night at the plate by Josh Vanmeter.  Tonight, it will be the Venezuelan lefty, Ranger Suarez, battling Arizona's Humberto Castellanos.  Suarez has been terrific all season, as his ERA is 1.07 across 50 1/3 innings, spanning 30 games.  And in his three starts this season, Suarez has a sparkling 0.90 ERA, with an 0.90 WHIP.  The Diamondbacks have been especially bad this season vs. lefties (8-23, minus 11.6 games on the moneyline), and as an underdog (28-71, minus 29 games).  Take Philadelphia with Suarez.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles.  With about seven weeks to go in the regular season, the low-budget Rays have a healthy three-game lead in the AL East over the Red Sox.  With seven games against Orioles left on the schedule (as well as seven games against the Tigers), this four-game set at home is the type of series which the Rays really need to take advantage of, if they are to seal the deal come October 3.  The O's are headed for their third straight 100-loss season (ignoring the short 2020 season).  And barring some major changes in the off-season, there's a good chance that 2022 won't be much different.  Seemingly out of nowhere, Baltimore RH Matt Harvey had three straight quality starts to end the month of July.  But August has seen a return to (mediocre) form for the 32-year-old pitcher who comes into tonight with a 6-11 record, and 6.10 ERA, in 23 starts covering 103 1/3 innings.  The O's are 16-37 in the last 53 meetings with the Rays and 6-26 in the last 32 here in St. Pete.  Meanwhile, Collin McHugh's teams are 14-3 (+8.6 games on the moneyline) in his career when favored at home by -150 (or more).  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Mets and Carlos Carrasco have been installed as a huge home underdog tonight.  I have all the respect in the world for Max Scherzer and the Dodgers, but I can't pass up this big price on Carrasco, and especially not at home where the Mets have a 36-22 record, plus 5 games on the moneyline (compared to 23-35 on the road, minus 14.7 games on the moneyline).  The Mets are 14-8 this season vs. the NL West, and 46-33 vs. righties.  And this will be the first time the Dodgers have faced Carrasco, which I believe confers an advantage to the pitcher.  Take the Mets as a huge home dog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Colorado Rockies.  Last night, the Rockies won a rare game as a road underdog, while the Giants lost a rare game as a home favorite this season.  Notwithstanding that defeat, Gabe Kapler's Giants are still 33-12 as a home favorite this year, while Colorado is a horrid 13-42 as a road underdog.  The matchup this afternoon will feature the Rockies' Jon Gray vs. San Francisco's southpaw, Alex Wood.  Unfortunately for Colorado, Gray is 2-6 in his career vs. SF, with a 5.86 ERA.  Meanwhile, San Francisco has won Wood's last four starts, and nine of his last 11.  Take the Giants.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Minnesota Twins.  Luis Patino was the main prize for the Rays in the trade that sent Blake Snell to the Padres.  Patino finds himself in a Major League rotation at just 21 years of age as the Rays have given him eight starts since he came over (Patino also had a start for the Padres last season).  After facing teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Indians in his last five starts, Patino gets some relief this afternoon as he goes up against an inferior Twins lineup.  Most important, the Rays are 3-1 in Patino's last four starts with big wins against Boston, New York, and Cleveland.  Patino has never faced the Twins before so don't be surprised if he finds Target Field very much to his liking today.  Despite their loss last night, the Rays are 25-9 in their last 34 games vs. teams with a losing record and 17-6 in their last 23 vs. AL Central clubs. Take the Rays.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals.  With Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Daniel Hudson, Josh Harrison, and Yan Gomes all moved at the trading deadline, the Nats figure to face some very long days coming up.  In fact, with the total house-cleaning that DC has undergone, don't be surprised if it has one of the worst second-half records when all is said and done.  The Braves seem to be moving in the opposite direction, finally putting up a winning record after spending almost the entire first half under the .500 mark.  Charlie Morton goes to the mound tonight for the visitors.  In 23 starts, the 37-year-old RHP is 10-4 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 128 innings.  This will be his third start of the season vs. the Nats.  In two starts vs. DC (May 31 and August 7), Morton is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 11 innings.  This season Morton has done his best work on the road, with a 3.10 ERA in nine road starts.  The Braves are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings against the Nats and 5-0 in the last five here at Nationals Park.  Take Atlanta.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Seattle Mariners.  This is a rematch of the game played back on June 29 between these teams.  Toronto won that game, 9-3, behind 6 solid innings from lefty Robbie Ray, who struck out 10 Mariners, and gave up just 5 hits.  Chris Flexen was less effective, as he gave up 3 runs and 7 hits over 5 innings.  We'll take the Jays and Ray tonight, as Ray has given up just 9 runs in his last 7 starts, covering 43 2/3 innings (1.85 ERA; 0.96 WHIP).  Meanwhile, Flexen has been trending in the opposite direction, as his ERA over his last three starts is an ugly 6.89, with a 1.72 WHIP.  The Blue Jays are a solid 19-9 as a road favorite of -125 (or more), while Robbie Ray's teams are 23-13 (+5.6 games on the moneyline) in his career when priced as a road favorite.  Finally, the Mariners are a wallet-busting 46-69 (minus 10 games on the moneyline) vs. lefties.  Take Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 10 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cowboys opened their preseason slate last week vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Hall of Fame Game, in Canton, Ohio.  Dallas lost that game, 16-3.  But the Cowboys only had four projected starters in uniform, so take that performance with a boulder of salt.  Still, if there was a silver lining in that Hall of Fame Game, it was that the Cowboys outyarded the Steelers, 347-250, and also bettered them in yards per play (5.1 to 4.2).  But a -2 turnover differential spelled doom for Mike McCarthy's men.  We'll take the Cowboys to bounce back at Arizona on Friday night, as NFL underdogs playing away from home, that also lost away from home the previous week, have cashed 58% over the previous 37 Preseasons when playing an opponent that wasn't off a SU loss.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Baltimore Orioles.  The Red Sox will get a boost this weekend with the expected return of ace Chris Sale to the mound.  The fact that the Sox have managed to stay this competitive in the AL East without Sale this season is a testament to the rest of the pitching staff.  No one exemplifies that more than veteran RH Nick Pivetta.  The 28-year-old Canadian came over from the Phillies a year ago and he has played this season on an MLB minimum salary and has more than pulled his weight at the back end of the rotation.  In 22 starts, Pivetta is 8-5 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in just over 118 innings.  He has a great chance to improve those numbers tonight as Pivetta has already beaten the O's both times he's faced them this season -- on April 11 and May 9.  Those were in Baltimore so this will be his first start against them at Fenway in 2021.  In fact Pivetta has beaten the O's in all five of his starts against them (three with the Red Sox and two with the Phillies).  Take Boston.

Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the New York Mets.  Tylor Megill burst on the scene earlier this season for the Mets and for a while it looked like his name would be in the Rookie of the Year discussions.  By the end of July, Megill was 1-0 with a 2.04 ERA and the Mets had won six of his seven starts.  Maybe the league caught up to him or maybe it was something else, but August has seen a different Megill go to the mound so far.  In two starts this month (at Miami and Philadelphia) Megill is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA in 9 2/3 innings.  Although he's back home tonight, things won't get easier for the 26-year-old as the Dodgers come into Queens sporting one of the most lethal lineups in the game.  They've got a pretty good pitcher on the mound too as Julio Urias goes for his 24th start of 2021.  The 25-year-old southpaw leads the league with 13 victories and has logged a 3.41 ERA in 134 2/3 innings as well.  L.A. is 38-17 in the last 55 meetings with New York and 21-7 in the last 28 in Queens.  Take the Dodgers.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Baseball is a team sport, but if the Padres are going to have any chance of catching the Dodgers and/or Giants, they're going to need certain individual players to step up in the final seven weeks of the season.  No Padres player is that more true for than veteran RH Yu Darvish.  Darvish's numbers would be fine for say a number three starter, but not what you would expect from an ace.  In 22 starts covering 128 2/3 innings, Darvish is 7-6 with a 3.43 ERA and he's lost his last four decisions and hasn't won a game since June 21.  That one was against tonight's opponent as well.  Although he didn't win his last start, Darvish pitched very well allowing just two earned runs on four hits in seven innings with 12 strikeouts and no walks while the Pads cruised to a 6-2 win.  And the opponent in that one?  You guessed it -- the D-Backs.  Darvish's teams have won seven of his last eight starts vs. Arizona going back to August of 2013.  Take San Diego.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox.  Last night, we played on the Red Sox and Nathan Eovaldi against the Rays and easily won, 20-8.  But off that offensive explosion (Boston's highest-scoring game since 2015), we'll fade the Red Sox and Nick Pivetta this afternoon.  Notwithstanding yesterday's defeat, Tampa is still 6-1 its last seven vs. Boston.  And it's 31-13 in day games this season.  Meanwhile, the Red Sox are an awful 25-32 (minus 24.4 games on the moneyline) in daytime games at Fenway Park, and 30-46 (minus 25.9 games) at home vs. winning teams.  Take Tampa.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Lefty Ranger Suarez will start this afternoon for the Phillies, and he's been terrific in 2021.  He's made 29 appearances (including two starts), and has an ERA below 1 run a game (0.98 ERA), with a WHIP of 0.85.  For the season, the Phillies are 26-15 in day games, and they're also 8-2 their last 10 games.  Take the Phillies.

t 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers.  Southpaw Tyler Anderson will make his 3rd career start vs. Texas, and his ERA in his first two was 2.92.  Tonight, Anderson will have a decided advantage vs. Texas starter Spencer Howard, who has a 5.47 ERA (and 7.00 in his last three starts) and a 1.37 WHIP.  In contrast, Anderson's WHIP is a solid 1.19, and his ERA in his home starts is 3.31.  We'll fade the Rangers on the road tonight, as they're a dreadful 44-102 as road underdogs, 14-43 in nighttime road games (minus 19.2 games on the moneyline), and 16-47 on the road vs. American League pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 (or better).  Take Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Tampa. The Rays have won five straight coming into this middle game of a 3-game set. But they'll have a disadvantage on the mound tonight, with Josh Fleming matching up against Nathan Eovaldi. Fleming brings a 4.93 ERA in his 10 starts into this game, including a 6.67 ERA on the road. Meanwhile, Eovaldi has done his best work at home this season, as his ERA at Fenway is 3.30, with a 1.12 WHIP. Take the Red Sox. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Minnesota Twins.  Lance Lynn comes into this -- his 21st start of 2021 -- having no-decisions in his last two outings (against the Indians and Cubs).  And it's the first time this season that Lynn has gone two straight starts without getting a decision.  Most of the time, those decisions are wins, and even when he doesn't get the "W", the White Sox usually end up on the winning side of the score.  Today he faces the Twins -- a team he's been very dominant against already this season.  In four starts against Minny covering 24 innings, Lynn is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, and two of those starts came here at Target Field.  Eight of his 20 starts this season were in the afternoon, and in those, the 34-year-old RHP is 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.  With the Sox 16-6 in the last 22 meetings with the Twins and 4-2 in the last six meetings here in Minneapolis, we'll take Chicago on Wednesday afternoon.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Colorado Rockies.  Veteran RHP Jake Odorizzi currently sits at the back end of the Houston rotation, and most pitchers would be happy to be in that position.  The first place 'Stros lead the AL West by two games over the A's going into this week.  But if Odorizzi doesn't improve his numbers, he will likely find himself in the bullpen come playoff time.  The 31-year-old is 4-6 with a 4.95 ERA in 15 games (14 starts) covering 63 2/3 innings, including a 7-5 loss to the Dodgers six days ago.  A match-up with the Rockies  and veteran RHP Jon Gray awaits tonight and that's not a bad thing.  In 29 career inter-league starts covering 154 1/3 innings, Odorizzi is 10-7 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.  Thankfully, this start is at home and not in run-happy, mile-high Denver, as Houston is 120-59 its last 179 at home, while Gray's teams are 28-44 (minus 12.6 games on the moneyline) in his 72 career starts on the road.  Houston is also 20-7 in its last 27 inter-league home games vs. teams with losing records, and Odorizzi's been very profitable (18-7, +10.3 games on the moneyline) when working on an extra day or two of rest.  Take the 'Stros.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, in Game 1 of the Double-Header, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Toronto Blue Jays.  This game is between two teams that are desperately trying to stay in the playoff chase in their respective divisions.  The thing that's different about Game 1 is the fact that although today's twin-bill is being played at Angels Stadium, Toronto is the "home" team in the opener which means the Angels will bat first and can potentially give young rookie RHP Chris Rodriguez some runs -- and extra confidence -- before he takes the mound.  For the purposes of today's game, it's most useful to look at the 22-year-old's last outing on August 2 which was his first start of the season.  In that one, Rodriguez threw six efficient innings (86 pitches) allowing three earned runs on four hits with seven strikeouts and two walks.  Heading into this critical four-game series, the Halos are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Jays and 20-8 in the last 28 "road" meetings.  L.A. is also 10-1 in its last 11 opening games of a double-header.  Take the Angels.

At 2:20 pm, in Game 1 of their double-header, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. The Brew Crew must be considered serious contenders this season, given their pitching staff. In addition to this afternoon's starter - Freddy Peralta -- the Brewers boast top-flight starters in Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser. This will be Peralta's 21st start of the season, and Milwaukee has won 14 of his first 20. His ERA is a solid 2.25, with a spectacular 0.86 WHIP.  He's also dominated the division rival Cubs this season, as the Brewers have won all four of Peralta's starts (21 IP, 10 Hits, 5 ER, 33 strikeouts). We'll take Milwaukee this afternoon vs. Chicago, as Milwaukee's won the last five meetings by a combined score of 41-15. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Kansas City Royals.  After Jameson Taillon had his second Tommy John surgery, he decided to sit out the entire 2020 season.  Little did he know that that would be his last season with Pirates as, at the beginning of this season, the 29-year-old was traded to the New York Yankees.  No doubt Taillon is happy to be with a winning organization and his 7-4 record and 4.04 ERA in 21 starts is proof that he has responded positively to the change of scenery.  Taillon will get his 22nd start of the season tonight in Kansas City, a city he's not pitched in before.  He may have never thrown a pitch in Kauffman Stadium, but Taillon is 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in two starts against the Royals covering 13 1/3 innings.  Moreover, although his record on the season may be only 7-4, the Yankees have been dominating with Taillon on the mound recently, going 7-1 in his last eight trips to the hill.  The Yanks are also 7-2 in the last nine meetings with the Royals and 4-1 in the last five in Kansas City.  Finally, the Yankees are 46-24 at night (compared to 15-26 in the daytime). Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets +1.5 runs over the Philadelphia Phillies.  On Saturday, the Phils won their 7th straight game, with a 5-3 decision over the visiting Mets.  We'll take New York on the run-line in this final game of the 3-game series.  Taijuan Walker will toe the rubber for New York this afternoon.  And the Mets have won all four of his starts vs. the Phillies in his career (2.95 ERA; 1.12 WHIP) and they've won 22 of his last 32 starts, overall.   For the season, Walker's WHIP is a very good 1.22.  And Philly is a dreadful 35-63 (minus 29.5 games on the moneyline) in National League games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.25 (or better).  Take the Mets +1.5 runs in this early afternoon game on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres minus 1.5 runs over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  San Diego's been installed as a big favorite tonight in this game, which features the Padres' RHP Yu Darvish vs. the D-Backs' RHP, Taylor Widener.  Darvish has made eight prior starts vs. Arizona, and he is a solid 4-1, with a 3.11 ERA.  Historically, Arizona has been awful as an underdog.  Even though we're playing the Padres on the run-line this evening, it's worth noting that, this season, the DBacks are 24-66 as a dog, minus 31.2 net games on the moneyline.  And they're 18-85 their last 103 as a dog of +200 or higher (minus 45.2 net games on the moneyline).  We'll take the Padres -1.5 runs tonight, as they're 10-2 this season as a home favorite with Darvish on the mound.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins.  The Twins will start Michael Pineda tonight.  He's made 10 prior starts vs. Houston, and he's compiled an ugly 5.18 ERA, with a 1.30 WHIP.  His teams have won just three of those 10 games.  And in his career he's cashed just 16% when priced as an underdog of +150 (or higher).  Minnesota is a soft 11-20 (minus 4.4 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog this season, while Houston is 113-52 (+10.2 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite.  Take the Astros.

At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies.  With injuries to Vince Velazquez and Zach Eflin, the Phillies have had to dig deep into their pitching reserves to come up with a starter for tonight's game against the Mets.  They think they've found one in 25-year-old Venezuelan LH Ranger Suarez.  Suarez was used exclusively as a reliever until last Monday when he got the call against the Nationals.  He only went three innings in that one so expect a similar outing tonight.  Going opposite Suarez will be red-hot rookie RH Tylor Megill of the Mets.  Megill is 1-1 with a 2.68 ERA in eight starts covering 40 1/3 innings.  This will be the 26-year-old's first career start against the Phillies and despite Megill having only one victory on his ledger coming in, the Mets are 6-2 in his starts.  Additionally, the Mets are 7-4 in the last 11 meetings, and are 16-8 in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record (including 6-2 in their last eight road games vs. winning foes).  Take New York.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  As the season wears on, it appears more and more likely that both NL Wild Card teams will come from the West.  But while the Giants and Dodgers continue their winning ways, the Padres are having some issues and are starting to fall further behind in the Division.  The next two weeks are critical for the Pads as they have series against losing teams (the D-Backs, Marlins, Rockies).  Tonight it will be 21-year-old rookie LH Ryan Weathers going to mound for the home team.  Weathers has been a nice surprise for San Diego, logging a 4-3 record with a 3.65 ERA in 19 games -- 13 starts -- covering 66 2/3 innings.  This will be Weathers first "real" start against Arizona.  He had a scoreless relief appearance and picked up the save vs. the D-Backs in his first game of the season and then acted as an opener against them on April 28, throwing a scoreless inning in a 12-3 San Diego romp.  The D-Backs are 2-6 in the last eight meetings at Petco.  Take the Padres.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins.  Over the years, I've loved to back Zack Greinke at home, as he's been phenomenal in that role (and especially when favored by -150 (or more), as he's 97-32 (+37.4 net games)).  The Astros are also 57-18 as a home favorite of -200 (or more).  Lay the big price.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays.  Boston's Nathan Eovaldi made his first career All Star game appearance last month.  His selection was based on a first half that included a 9-5 record and a 3.66 ERA in 18 starts.  But since then, victories have been elusive for the 31-year-old RH as he is win-less in three second-half starts.  The good news is, that despite the victory drought, Eovaldi has pitched very well so it seems clear that the wins will come -- hopefully sooner rather than later if the Sox are to keep up with the Rays in the AL East.  His 22nd start will come tonight against a Jays team that he's had some success against.  Although Eovaldi is just 1-1 lifetime against Toronto (eight appearances; seven starts), his teams have won four of his last five starts vs. the Jays going back to May of 2016 when he was a member of the Yankees.  The Sox are 5-2 in the last seven meetings with the Jays and 37-16 in the last 53 in Toronto.  Take Boston.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies.  After stints with the Twins (seven seasons) and the Rangers (the better part of two seasons), Kyle Gibson now finds himself back with the team that originally drafted him in 2006.  The Phillies traded for the 33-year-old RHP at the deadline in an effort to shore up their rotation.  But despite Gibson's recent success with Texas, this is still a pitcher with a losing career record (76-77) and an ERA right around four-and-a-half runs.  The Jury is still out as to whether Gibson will be much help to a Phillies club that is struggling to stay above the .500 mark.  Marcus Stroman will get his 23rd start tonight.  Despite a 7-10 record, the veteran RH has sharp 2.80 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 122 innings.  In nine career appearances against the Phils (seven starts), Stroman is 4-3 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in just under 40 innings.  Stroman loves pitching at Citizens Bank Park as he is 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA in four games here (three starts) covering 18 1/3 innings.  Take the Mets.

At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Chicago Cubs.  Lance Lynn has been one of the best pitchers this season.  In 19 starts, his ERA is 2.07, with a 1.05 WHIP.  And in daytime starts, he has a 1.37 ERA, with an 0.84 WHIP.  It doesn't get any better than that.  He'll match up against the Cubbies' Kyle Hendricks this afternoon.  Hendricks has underperformed here at home this season, as his ERA is north of 4 runs a game (4.37), while his WHIP is 1.35.  Even worse:  Hendricks' career ERA vs. the ChiSox is 3.75, while his teams have won just two of his eight starts.  With the Cubs a dreadful 30-56 (minus 20.6 games on the moneyline as an underdog of +150 (or less), we'll fade the Cubs in this home underdog role this afternoon.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Miami Marlins.  An emotional 2019 campaign in which he survived cancer gave way to a pandemic-shortened 2020 comeback season for veteran RHP Carlos Carrasco.  Then more emotion at the start of 2021 when Carrasco was sent from Cleveland to New York as part of the blockbuster trade which also transported Francisco Lindor to the Mets.  But a hamstring injury in the spring delayed Carrasco's Big Apple debut, as he missed the entire first half of the season.  No doubt, fans and coaches alike were on pins and needles as Carrasco finally got his first 2021 start last Friday.  And he did not disappoint.  Carrasco threw four solid innings at home against the Reds, allowing just one run on three hits with four strikeouts.  I expect Carrasco to be stretched out to more than the 58 pitches he threw in that game last week.  And tonight, he'll be facing a team which he's dominated in his career.  In two starts vs. the Marlins covering 11 1/3 innings, Carrasco has not allowed a run, with 15 strikeouts and only one walk.  Finally, Carrasco's teams are a fantastic 26-8 as a road favorite, priced from -125 to -175, with him on the hill, while the Marlins are 1-6 as an underdog behind Zach Thompson.  Take the Mets.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees minus 1.5 runs over the Baltimore Orioles.  Gerrit Cole was supposed to get the start tonight, but he contracted COVID-19, so he will be quarantined.  Instead, top prospect Luis Gill will be on the hill for the Pinstripes on Tuesday.  But maybe that's not such a bad thing, given that Cole and the Yankees were bombed, 14-0, in his start at Tampa last Thursday.  And New York has dropped five of Cole's last seven starts, overall.  Gil has been tabbed as the best pitching prospect in the Yankees system.  His fastball gets up to the mid-90s, and he averaged 14.7 strikeouts/9-innings at AA Somerset (2.64 ERA) before moving up to AAA Scranton, where his numbers did take a hit (5.64 ERA).  Still, the 23-year-old is ultra-talented.  He'll match up against Baltimore's young Australian southpaw, Alexander Wells, on this Tuesday night.  Wells started 2021 in AAA Norfolk, and had a less-than-mediocre stint there, as his ERA was 5.63 in eight appearances (though his K:BB ratio was solid).  Notwithstanding that relative lack of success, Wells was called up to the Majors on June 25, and he made his MLB debut vs. the Blue Jays the next day.  Overall, Wells' ERA is 5.28, while his WHIP is 1.70.  Neither of those are surprising given his minor league stats, and I believe he'll struggle tonight vs. the Yankees, who are 36-11 as a home favorite priced at -200 (or more).  Lay the 1.5 runs on Tuesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays.  RHP Nick Pivetta only had two starts with the Red Sox last season after coming over from the Phillies in a trade at the end of August.  But those two starts were very good and seemed to point to a potential break-out campaign this season.  That breakout hasn't happened and the 28-year-old Canadian has struggled at times despite some very good run support from his offense.  In 20 starts covering 107 2/3 innings, Pivetta is 8-4 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.  But one team Pivetta hasn't struggled against is the Rays.  In two starts vs. Tampa covering 11 2/3 innings this season, Pivetta has yet to allow a run while surrendering just two hits and striking out 12 Rays batters.  One of those outings was at Tropicana Field and Pivetta will try to build on those numbers here again tonight in prime time.  Boston has excelled in division games, as the Sox are 29-13 in their last 42 games vs. teams from the AL East.  Take Boston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Colorado Rockies.  Reiss Knehr was the 20th round selection by the Padres in the 2018 June Amateur Draft.  The 24-year-old RHP tore his way through the Minors and finally got his call to join the Show this season.  An oblique injury to Chris Paddack has given Knehr the opportunity to join the Big League club and with the Padres not picking up any starting pitchers at the recently-concluded trade deadline, Knehr could be in the rotation for the foreseeable future.  Knehr's first career MLB start was July 9 and it just happened to be right here against this afternoon's opponent, the Rockies.  The Pads won that game 4-2 although Knehr didn't factor in the decision.  He's looking for his first MLB victory in a repeat of that game today.  Despite their wins on Friday and Saturday, the Rockies are just 3-10 in the last 13 meetings with the Pads here at Petco Park.  Take San Diego.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the San Francisco Giants.  The Astros took the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" approach at the trade deadline.  It appears the only deal that the first place Astros made last week was acquiring pitchers Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero from Seattle on Tuesday.  With a pretty cozy 5 1/2 game lead in AL West, the 'Stros no doubt figured they were in a pretty good place and didn't need more than some minor tweaks.  This series with the Giants could be a World Series preview and although that would have sounded like a crazy proposition a few months ago, it sure doesn't seem so nutty right now.  Houston will go with RHP Luis Garcia this afternoon.  The 24-year-old, second year rookie came out of nowhere this season to make quite an impact in a rotation that was already pretty solid.  In 19 games (17 starts), Garcia is 7-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 96 innings.  In two previous inter-league starts this season, Garcia is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 11 2/3 innings.  Take Houston.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Colorado Rockies.  Prior to Friday night, the Padres needed their ace, Yu Darvish to step it up.  Now that San Diego has lost out on the Max Scherzer sweepstakes to their NL West rival Dodgers, the urgency for Darvish to pitch better and win some games is even more intensified.  The 34-year-old Japanese RH is 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA in 20 starts covering just under 116 innings, but Darvish hasn't won a game in more than a month (June 21) and the Pads are 1-3 in his July starts.  But those three San Diego defeats came on the road.  Tonight Darvish is back in his home park where he's done by far his best work this season.  In 12 home starts, Darvish is 5-2 with a 2.79 ERA vs. 2-3 and 4.03 in 8 road starts and the Padres are 10-2 in Darvish's starts here at Petco Park this season.  In five career starts vs. Colorado, Darvish is 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.  Despite their victory here on Friday, the Rockies are just 3-10 in the last 13 meetings in San Diego.  Take the Padres.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Cincinnati Reds.  MLB just wrapped up the biggest non-waiver trade period in its history with more All Stars changing teams than at any other time in the past.  Many of those occurred within the last 24 hours, which means that some of the trades that took place earlier in the week are all but forgotten at this point.  One such trade was when the Rays inexplicably traded veteran southpaw Rich Hill to the Mets.  The Mets have since made other, more major moves -- like acquiring IF Javier Baez from the Cubs -- but the Hill trade may prove to be as important as anything they do in the 2nd half.  Hill gets his 21st start of the season and his second for the Mets tonight and although he didn't win his Mets debut last Sunday, his team was victorious in that one over a very good Blue Jays squad.  Hill has a lot of experience against the Reds from his time with the Cubs.  In 13 games (11 starts) vs. Cincy, the 41-year-old is 5-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in just over 62 innings.  Take New York.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays.  The Red Sox got help at the trade deadline in the areas of offense and relief pitching, picking up OF Kyle Schwarber and RP Hansel Robles.  But the starting pitchers -- there were plenty available -- landed in cities other than Boston.  This means the rotation which got the Sox to this point will have to continue to do its job the rest of the season.  That includes All Star RH starter Nathan Eovaldi who gets his 21st start of the season tonight.  It comes against a very tough opponent in the Rays, but Eovaldi should be up to the task.  The 31-year-old is 9-5 with a 3.49 ERA in 116 innings and his only other start this season against the Rays was a good one.  In his second start of the season on April 7, Eovaldi threw seven strong innings, allowing one run on three hits with seven strikeouts in a 9-2 Boston rout.  RH Ryan Yarbrough gets the ball for Tampa, and although he's 6-4 overall in 2021, Yarbrough is just 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA in 10 home games (seven starts).  Take Boston.