Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cleveland Indians.  When talking about the 2020 version of the Cubs, one can't help but think of that famous Mark Twain quote "rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated".  Many thought that the Cubs would be an afterthought in this shortened season as they re-grouped and prepared for a run in 2021 but so far at least that has not been the case.  Chicago is 10-3 and already several 4.5 ahead in the NL Central as Milwaukee and St. Louis have struggled with injuries and sub-par pitching.  Speaking of afterthoughts, many believed that Cubs' LH Jon Lester would be just that this season but instead the veteran has been lights out so far.  Through two starts, Lester has allowed one run on four hits in 11 innings -- numbers that would rival the best in his prime.  Lester is an awesome 43-23 his last 66 games, while Cleveland is 14-20 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) off a win.

At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over Toronto.  The Blue Jays will start Hyun Jin Ryu today, and his ERA is north of 5 runs per game.  Even worse, the Jays are batting .218 as a team, and has a league-low 39 runs scored.  Tonight, the Blue Jays will take on the surprising Marlins and pitcher Elieser Hernandez, who has an ERA of 0.00, and a WHIP of 0.69.   Take Miami.

At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Dallas.  If the Blazers can win their final two games, they will make the Playoffs "play-in" series, so there's great incentive tonight -- much more so than the Mavericks possess, since Dallas is guaranteed to be either the #6 or #7 seed.  Portland plays with revenge from a 133-125 defeat in January, but McCollum and Nurkic were out for that game.  Both will be on the floor tonight.  We'll lay the points with the Trail Blazers, as they fall into a 128-63 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as a "late season" system which is 79-36 ATS.  Take Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Columbus Blue Jackets.  The Jackets played the only five-game series in the play-in round, outlasting Toronto with a 3-0 win on Sunday.  Meanwhile, the Bolts (who were our preseason pick at 7-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup) lost their final match in the qualifying round to the Flyers (who were also 2-0 coming in) on Saturday 4-1.  However you could argue that the loss puts Tampa in a much better position now, having to meet Columbus -- the only team coming in with only one day of rest -- compared to the red-hot Canadiens who ran through top-seeded Pittsburgh in four games (Philly gets Montreal now).  There is also a nice revenge factor at work for the Bolts as they have a chance to get back at the team that eliminated them in the first round of the 2019 playoffs in a four-game sweep.  Not including that dreadful playoff series, Tampa has dominated its meetings with Columbus recently, winning each of the last seven going back to October 2017.  The Bolts are also 24-7 (+14 games on the money line) in the last 31 after a blowout loss by three or more goals.  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Two starters known for their strikeouts and lack of control go to the mound opposite each other tonight in Denver.  But while the D-Backs LH Robbie Ray has put his wildness on full display while continuing his K numbers so far this season (he leads the league in walks allowed while averaging almost 12 punchouts per nine IP), Jon Gray is showing us something different.  The 28 YO RH who has called Colorado his baseball home since he came into the league has only managed seven K's in 16 1/3 innings, but his walk rate is down and he has a very nice 3.31 ERA through three starts.  Now he just needs to find a way to get a win on this hot Rockies club that is 11-4 despite losing on Sunday.  Clearly the oddest thing about Gray is how well he pitches in Coors Field.  In 58 games here (57 starts) Gray has an amazing 25-11 record and a solid (for Coors) ERA of 4.34.  The Rox are 18-9 in Gray's last 27 home starts with a total of 10 runs or higher.  Take Colorado.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Detroit Tigers.  It's been an interesting journey for LHP Dallas Keuchel that has landed him back in the AL.  The Astros did not resign the veteran after the 2018 season despite some solid numbers that year (12 wins and a 3.74 ERA).  After that, everyone -- including probably Keuchel -- figured he would land a lucrative deal somewhere.  But it wasn't until the 2019 season was more than two months old that he finally landed a one-year deal with Atlanta.  The Braves also cut him loose and now he's back in the AL on a three-year deal with Chicago.  He's already paid dividends although Keuchel had a bad beat in his last start, allowing just one run on five hits in seven IP against the Brewers but coming up on the short end of a 1-0 loss.  Still, he's off to a red-hot start (2-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP) and facing the Tigers tonight should help keep it going.  Keuchel's teams are 11-3 (+6 games on the money line) in his last 14 starts as a road favorite of at least -125.  Take the Sox.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Oklahoma City.  This 8-game re-start schedule in Orlando was, of course, necessary for several reasons.  The most important were that the players needed to shake off the rust to prepare for the playoffs, and teams on the outside-looking-in needed a final opportunity to make a run at the post-season.  And that last reason has impelled the Phoenix Suns to play their best basketball of the year.  Phoenix is the lone unbeaten team at Disney World, with a 5-0 SU/ATS record.  And it retains a shot to make the play-in round, if it wins its final three games.  The first of those is this afternoon against a Thunder squad which blew out Washington yesterday.  Phoenix will thus have an advantage in terms of rest.  And NBA teams playing with extra rest have gone 14-9 ATS at Disney.  We'll lay the points with the Suns, as we look for them to win (and cover) their 6th straight game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over Columbus.  There were eight first round, best-of-five playoff series in the 2020 NHL playoffs and this is the only one to go five games thanks to a crazy Game 4 in which the Maple Leafs prevailed on Friday night.  Down 3-0 with less than four minutes to go in the final period, the Leafs staged a furious comeback that took it into overtime.  They then prevailed in the extra stanza on an Auston Matthews power play goal.  It was just the 3rd time in NHL Playoffs history that a team came back to win after being down three goals with under four minutes to play.  Of course, it's also worth noting that, in Game 3, it was Columbus which came back from a three-goal deficit to win.  Thus, both teams will want to make sure they don't squander a lead tonight.  The Blue Jackets have now lost 14 of their last 19 games.  Even worse, Columbus' best defenseman, Zach Werenski, has been downgraded to 'doubtful' with an upper body injury.  That doesn't bode well for John Tortorella's men.  Nor does the fact that they are averaging just 1.78 expected goals per game in the series when playing at full strength.  I look for Toronto to close out Columbus tonight with a decisive win.  Take the Maple Leafs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  If you're a casual baseball fan, then you may not know the name Dinelson Lamet.  But chances are you will in a couple of years (or maybe sooner).  Lamet was signed as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic back in 2014.  And the fact that the Padres have stuck with him until now -- including Tommy John surgery and a lost 2018 season -- tells you what they think about the now-28-year-old.  Their patience may finally be paying off as Lamet looks like a breakout candidate in this short season.  Through his first three starts, the RHP is 1-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP including 11 hits allowed with 17 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings.  The D-Backs will go with veteran LHP Madison Bumgarner who they signed as a free agent back in December.  Mad-Bum's teams are 10-18 (-7 games on the money line) in his last 28 road starts.  Heading into Sunday, the home team is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings of these two.  Take the Padres.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago White Sox.  It's early still, but so far the hard-luck pitching award in the AL has to go to the Indians' sophomore RH Zach Plesac.  Through two starts, Plesac has a 1.80 ERA over 15 innings and he's struck out 17 batters with just seven hits and one walk allowed.  How do you put up numbers like that and not have a win to show for them?  It's almost impossible to imagine but the so-far anemic offense of the Tribe has been the stifling factor.  But Cleveland has shown flashes of what it can do at the plate like just last Thursday when the Indians put up 13 against the Reds in a romp (of course Plesac was not the beneficiary of that).  In three career starts vs. the White Sox, Plesac has a 3.15 ERA and 0.90 WHIP so any offense this afternoon by his lineup and it should get him in the win column for the first time in 2020.  The White Sox are just 46-85 (-27 games on the money line) in their last 131 day games.  Take the Tribe.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  In the preseason, I released two NBA futures plays:  the Clippers to win the Western Conference, and the Bucks to win the Eastern Conference.  And I still believe that will be the Finals match-up in October.  The Clippers, for the most part, have nothing to play for in their remaining four games.  They're 2 games ahead of Denver for the #2 seed, and have a game vs. the Nuggets on Wednesday.  Los Angeles could go 1-3 in its final four games, but would still get the #2 seed if it defeated Denver next week.  So, that's pretty much the highest priority game on L.A.'s schedule.  Portland, on the other hand, needs to win each of its last four games because, if it slips up just once, it could miss the Playoffs.  Portland, thus, has a big edge in the "motivation' department this afternoon.  And it also falls into a 212-132 ATS revenge system of mine, as it lost by 20 points at Los Angeles when the two teams last met.  The Trail Blazers are 9-0-2 ATS their last 11 (and 22-7-2 ATS their last 31) when playing with revenge from a loss by 12+ points, if they weren't getting more than 4 points.  Take the Trail Blazers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Arizona.  The D-Backs' RHP starter, Luke Weaver, has been wholly ineffective this season, with a 14.73 ERA over two starts.  And he was equally bad in both games, as he gave up six runs in 3 1-3 innings in his first start, and gave up six runs in four innings in his second start.  And that first start was against these Padres, so San Diego's hitters should be champing at the bit to face him again tonight.  Arizona's an awful 66-99 (minus 26 games on the moneyline) vs. division rivals.   Take San Diego..  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over Columbus.   The Maple Leafs haven't won a playoff series since 2004.  And, unless they win the next two games vs. Columbus, their playoff drought will continue.  At the very least, I expect the Maple Leafs to force a decisive Game 5.  Tonight, they'll look to bounce back from a 4-3 defeat in Game 3 -- a game in which they led 3-0 midway through the second period.  Unfortunately, they have up three 3rd period goals, and that was "all she wrote."  The Leafs are now 2-5 their last seven games.  But Toronto's a super 40-21 if it's lost at least 4 of its previous 6 games.  Take the Maple Leafs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays.  Now that they're -- for the most part -- healthy, the Yankees look as dominant on the field as they are on paper.  The pitching has been solid -- although not spectacular -- and the offense has produced runs like a well-oiled machine.  A healthy Aaron Judge leads all Major League players with seven home runs although he was given a rare day off yesterday (the Yanks could have used him in their loss to the Phils).  One Yankee who wasn't so healthy earlier in the summer was RHP Masahiro Tanaka.  Tanaka was struck on the head by a teammate's line drive on July 4 and missed some considerable time as a result.  But the veteran is healthy now and ready to make his second start of the season.  And this is a great opponent for the 31-year-old to build his confidence.  In 18 career starts vs. Tampa, Tanaka is 10-4 with a 3.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in just over 115 innings.  The Yankees are 19-10 in Tanaka's last 29 starts vs. division opponents.  Take New York.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the Montreal Canadiens.  With their backs against the wall, the Pens might turn to Tristan Jarry in goal against Montreal tonight.  While you certainly can't blame Matt Murray entirely for the difficult position the Pens find themselves in -- one loss away from elimination -- and you can't blame coach Mike Sullivan for using him in Game 3 after his performance before that, don't be surprised if there is a change today.  Jarry was better in the regular season and, at this point, the Pens can't afford to lose.  The good news for them is that their two losses have been very close.  And with a couple of different bounces, they would be the ones with the 2-1 lead.  The Habs are 8-17 (-12 games on the money line) after scoring more than 3 goals in their previous game, while Pittsburgh is 20-13 when playing with revenge from an upset loss.  Take the Pens.

At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Nashville Predators over Arizona.  This has been a back-and-forth series, with Arizona up 2-games-to-1 going into this afternoon's tilt.  We'll take the Predators as they're 146-92 (+54 games on the moneyline) when playing with revenge from a defeat in which they didn't score 2+ goals.  Nashville's also 47-28 (+10 games on the moneyline) its last 75 when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Meanwhile, Arizona's a wallet-busting 43-60 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) off a win.  Take the Predators.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Miami.  The Bucks pulled a rare clunker in their last game, as they lost outright as an 18.5-point favorite to Brooklyn.  It was the 3rd biggest NBA upset in the past 30 seasons!  But off that defeat, I love Mike Budenholzer's men to bounce back this afternoon, as his Milwaukee teams are 32-7 straight-up and 27-12 ATS off a loss, including 9-1 ATS when priced from -9 to -11 points.  It also will help Milwaukee that Budenholzer has promised to play his starters more than on Tuesday, when none played more than 20 minutes.  The Heat are a poor 15-26 ATS off a win this season.  Take the Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the Vancouver Canucks.  After firing on all cylinders in game one of this series and shutting out the Canucks 3-0, the Wild stumbled a bit in game two, falling 4-3.  The Wild dominated most of the third period, out-shooting the Canucks 16-8 in that final stanza and staged a furious rally that just fell short.  If Minnesota can continue where in left off in game two, it should be able to take an important 2-1 lead in this series after today.  The goalies haven't been confirmed for this match-up, but it's always possible that the Wild could turn to Devan Dubnyk after going with Alex Stalock in each of the first two. Eager to get his #1 net-minding job back after losing it this past winter when his wife had a medical emergency and he missed time, Dubnyk would be ready to go if called upon.  And It wouldn't hurt to turn to a veteran goalie who has something to prove -- with a bit of a chip on his shoulder -- come playoffs.  But regardless if it's Stalock or Dubnyk, we're taking Minnesota.  The Canucks are 14-26 (-9 games on the money line) off a one-goal win, while the Wild are 51-38 after giving up more than three goals.  And the Wild have controlled the play in this series this year, by out-shooting Vancouver in four of the five meetings.  The Wild should once again control play in the 5 x 5 action, and produce more scoring opportunities.  If they get better goal-tending play from Stalock (or Dubnyk) than they did on Tuesday, then they should win.  Take Minnesota.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 9:10 pm our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  San Diego was high on Garrett Richards for this season, and the early returns on the Padres veteran appear to validate the team's expectation.  Over two starts, Richards has been very very good, with a 3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.00 K:BB ratio (12 Ks and 4 BBs in 10 2/3 IP).  The only stat that hasn't been there for the 32-year-old starter so far is a victory.  Tonight, Richards faces a very good Dodgers team.  But Richards has some pretty sick numbers against the Boys in Blue over his nine-plus seasons in the Majors.  In six appearances vs. the Dodgers -- including four starts -- Richards is 1-0 with a 1.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in just over 30 innings.  He's struck out 30 batters and allowed just 23 hits over that span.  The Dodgers will go with RH Ross Stripling, who owns a decent career 3.57 ERA against the Padres but who is just 4-5 against them in 15 games -- including seven starts.  Take San Diego as the home underdog.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Tampa Bay Lightning.  While eight teams in each conference battle for a chance to advance in the playoffs as seeds 5 through 12, the top four teams in the East and West are playing a round robin tournament against each other to determine the final playoff seeding (with regular season overtime and shootout rules).  The Bruins won the Presidents Trophy and are considered the top team although that really doesn't matter in this format.  They were rusty in their first game, falling to the Flyers, 4-1 on Sunday.  Another zero-point effort tonight would almost make their third and final game meaningless, so the Bruins need to come out firing.  The Lightning beat the Caps in their first game but needed a shutout to do it as Washington out-played Tampa in the final two periods.  The Bolts were without their best player, C Steven Stamkos (lower body).  The oft-injured leader won't play tonight either.  Boston is 24-9 (+12 games on the money line) after scoring one goal or less in its previous game.  Take the Bruins.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over San Diego.  We played on LA on Saturday and Sunday (and won both games), but went against it last night, and cashed on San Diego as the home dog.  But off that loss, we'll switch again, and get back on the Dodgers tonight.  Dustin May will get the start for Dave Roberts' crew.  He's not gone deep into the game in either of his two previous starts.  But he has been effective, with a 2.35 ERA.  May's mound opponent tonight will be Dinelson Lamet, who has a 5.14 ERA in his four career starts vs. the Dodgers (all four were Dodger wins).  Notwithstanding yesterday's defeat, the Padres are a horrid 26-54 (minus 23 games on the moneyline) as a home underdog, while the Dodgers are 41-23 when playing with revenge from a loss as a road favorite, and 51-28 off a loss by less than three runs.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Portland.  The Rockets are 2-0 in Walt Disney World, and have defeated two very good teams (Milwaukee, Dallas).  Tonight, they'll get a relative breather when they take on Portland.  The Blazers have struggled to a 28-37 ATS mark this season, and are 24-38 ATS their last 62 when priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points.  Meanwhile, Houston plays with double-revenge, and is 20-7 ATS its last 27 when playing with double-revenge.  Take the Rockets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over Boston.  We played against the Heat yesterday, and got the $$$ with Toronto.  But we will switch gears and grab the points with Erik Spoelstra's men this evening, as Miami is 17-6 ATS off a loss this season.  And the Heat fall into a great 109-46 ATS system of mine which plays on certain unrested teams off a loss vs. foes off a win.  Grab the points.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Indiana.  The Magic are playing great ball, with 5 straight wins (and six straight covers), and fall into a 123-87 ATS system of mine which plays are certain revenge-minded squads.  With Orlando, indeed, playing with revenge from a 111-106 defeat, we'll lay the points with the Magic.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Columbus Blue Jackets.  This series figures to be close as the Leafs and Jackets are the #8 and #9 seeds respectively in the Eastern Conference play-in round.  So perhaps it wasn't too surprising when Columbus scored a mild upset in game one on Sunday.  What was more surprising perhaps was the fact that the Leafs were held scoreless, something that happened just once during the regular season.  Game one was a defensive struggle for the first two periods before the Jackets broke the tie just a minute into period #3 and then sealed the deal with an empty net goal in the final minute.  Look for the Leafs to come out more aggressively and take it to the Jackets with an offense that was third best in the league in terms of scoring during the regular season (3.39 GPG).  The Maple Leafs are 26-11 (+13 games on the money line) in their last 37 games revenging a loss to an opponent in which they scored one goal or less.  Take Toronto.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Chicago Blackhawks.  It's hard to imagine many positive take-aways from a Game 1 lopsided loss to a 12 seed when you are the heavy favorite.  But Edmonton actually has some things to build on as it prepares for Game 2 after a 6-4 defeat on Saturday.  First, there's the fact that, from the second period on, the Oilers out-scored Chicago 3-2.  The problem, of course, was the four first period goals they surrendered.  If they can prevent another early meltdown they should be fine.  Second is the fact that after veteran goalie Mike Smith was pulled following a dismal performance (five goals in 23 shots), back-up Mikko Koskinen stepped in and saved 18 of 19 the rest of the way.  It hasn't been announced but don't be surprised if the 31-year-old Koskinen gets the call tonight off of that superb effort which was too little too late for Edmonton.  The Oilers are 11-4 (+8 games on the money line) in their last 15 after allowing five or more goals in their previous game, and 15-6 off a loss by 2+ goals.  Take the Oilers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Los Angeles.  We played on the Dodgers the past two days, and won each game.  But we will fade the Dodgers tonight in San Diego.  Chris Paddack will get the start for the Padres, and all he's done is compile a 1.64 ERA in his two 2020 starts.  In contrast, the Dodgers' Walker Buehler got off to a slow start last week, as he allowed four baserunners and two runs in just 3 2-3 innings.  The Padres have gone 9-3 (+5 games on the moneyline) in Paddack's 12 home starts, while the Dodgers have burned money as a road favorite the past few years.  Take San Diego as a home underdog.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs moved to 2-0 since the restart yesterday when they upset the Grizzlies, 108-106, as a 3-point underdog.  San Antonio is trying to make the playoffs for the 23rd consecutive year, but it still has an uphill battle to qualify for the post-season in 2020.  After opening its Walt Disney schedule against two teams below .500 (Kings, Grizzlies), the Spurs' schedule will be difficult from this point forward, with games against the Sixers, Jazz (twice), Rockets, Nuggets and Pelicans.  The Spurs are an awful 11-24-1 ATS off a win vs. foes off an upset loss, including 2-10 ATS as an underdog of less than nine points.  And this is a horrible match-up for San Antone, as LaMarcus Aldridge and Trey Lyles are out, and it will have no one on the inside to guard Joel Embiid.  Take the 76ers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Miami.  The Raptors come into this game off a big win over the Lakers -- their fifth straight, overall.  But I don't foresee a letdown tonight, as Toronto will be seeking major revenge from a beatdown administered by Miami back in January.  In that previous meeting between these two teams, the Raptors had their worst offensive game since 2015, as they shot just 31% from the floor, and scored just 76 points, in an 8-point defeat.  But the Raptors are a spectacular 14-1 ATS away from home (including 10-0 ATS their last 10) when they are matched up against a team that held them to 82 or less points in the previous meeting.  And Toronto also falls into a 106-47 ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points with Nick Nurse's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Mavs absolutely collapsed in the final minute of Friday night's game vs. Houston.  They led by seven points with 45 seconds left, but lost in overtime, 153-149.  To put that defeat in perspective, consider that NBA teams were 711-2 in the previous 713 games when leading by 7+ points with a minute or less to go in regulation!  So, Dallas will seek to redeem itself tonight vs. a Phoenix team which blew out the Mavs, 133-104, in the last meeting.  The Mavericks are an awesome 47-28-1 ATS off a loss when playing with revenge vs. a foe off a straight-up win.  And Phoenix is 2-9 ATS its last 11 when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  We played on the Dodgers yesterday with Julio Urias, and will come right back with L.A. this afternoon.  Indeed, we'll probably be on Los Angeles an awful lot this year, as it was our Futures pick (at 4-1 odds) to win the World Series (last year, we cashed the Nationals at 18-1 odds).  Dodgers' ace LH Clayton Kershaw was going to start opening day but was a late scratch due to a stiff back.  So Kershaw's 2020 debut was delayed about 10 days, but he's been declared ready to go this evening.  He might be monitored carefully today.  However, with the way the Dodger bullpen has been performing, that's probably fine with him and the rest of the team.  Kershaw may not be quite so dominant against the D-Backs as he is against the Giants (his original opening day opponent) but he still has a pretty gaudy record against them.  In 33 starts vs. the D-Backs covering just under 206 innings, Kershaw is 16-10 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  The D-Backs will go with RHP Merrill Kelly who flirted with a no-hitter in his first start (7 2/3 IP, 1 ER), but that was in the new Rangers pitcher-friendly Park.  Kelly has a 5.40 ERA in two starts (10 innings) vs. the Dodgers.  Finally, the Dodgers are 76-27 (+33 games on the money line) in Kershaw's last 103 daytime starts.  Take L.A.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Julio Urias made his MLB debut more than four years ago so it's hard to imagine that the talented southpaw is still only 23 years old.  The sky seems to be the limit for Urias and clearly we haven't seen the best of the young Mexican phenom.  Urias gets his second start of the season tonight and it will be his first career start in Arizona's Chase Field.  He has two relief appearances here and in five innings he has yet to surrender a run, allowing just one hit with four strikeouts.  After a solid 2019 campaign in which he posted a 2.94 ERA in 12 starts, RHP Luke Weaver would like to forget his first start of this season.  Weaver allowed six runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings last Monday against the Padres and things won't get any easier for him against a stacked Dodgers lineup.  In three career starts vs. L.A., Weaver has a 8.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP -- not exactly confidence-building numbers.  Arizona is 4-13 in its last 17 games as a dog.  Take the Dodgers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles.  The O's are probably happy to see the Rays come to town after having to face the Yankees after the Marlins had a number of players test positive for COVID.  Somehow Baltimore -- which resembles a AAA team at this point -- managed to win Game 1 of this series last night here at home.  But things could get a lot tougher for the O's tonight with RHP Tyler Glasnow getting his second start of the season for the Rays.  Tampa was cautious with Glasnow earlier this week, as he only stayed in for four innings in his first start of 2020.  But as far as four-inning starts go, that one last Monday was about as dominant as it gets.  The 26-year-old allowed one hit while striking out nine Braves hitters in a 14-5 Rays rout.  Facing the O's lineup after one that includes Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, and Ozzie Albies is a dream come true for Glasnow in his second start of the season.  The O's are 9-43 (-23 games on the money line) in their last 52 games as a home dog of +175 or more.  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore.  The Orioles took two of three at Boston to start the season, but then came home to face the Yankees.  Baltimore dropped each of those, and that continued a long-term trend where the Orioles are a wallet-busting 35-92 (minus 39 games on the moneyline) as a home underdog.  Even worse:  Baltimore's 61-152 (minus 67 games on the moneyline) in nighttime games, and 43-75 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) vs. lefty starters.  Tampa's Blake Snell -- the Cy Young Award winner two seasons ago -- looks to bounce back this season from a disappointing 2019.  And Snell threw a couple of scoreless innings in his season debut last week.  I look for him to go deeper into tonight's game, and expect him to shut down the Orioles.  Take Tampa.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Indians.  If you haven't heard of Twins pitcher Randy Dobnak don't feel bad -- you're not alone.  The RH signed with the Twins as an undrafted free agent in 2017 and made it to the Majors after less than three seasons of Minor League ball.  And all Dobnak did when he got to Minneapolis last year was post a 1.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in nine appearances (five starts) covering just over 28 innings.  That's enough of a sample size to tell the Twins that Dobnak was worthy of a roster spot this season and with all the weird stuff going on, the 25-year-old found himself starting the Twins' second game of the season last Saturday.  He and the Twins took the "L" that day, but Dobnak continued to show that he belonged here, throwing four innings while allowing just one run on three hits.  It's no secret by now that the Twins have a powerful offense and that offense took the night off on Thursday, but everybody does that these days when facing Shane Bieber.  The Twins are 83-47 (+22 games on the moneyline) vs. righties, and I look for them to come back to life tonight.  Take Minnesota.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over Cincinnati.  The Tigers have gotten off to a surprising 4-3 start this season, including a 2-1 series win over Cincinnati to start the season.  One of Detroit's two wins earlier this season vs. the Reds featured the same pitching match-up as tonight:  Shane Turnbull vs. Luis Castillo.  In that game, Turnbull struck out eight Cincy batters, and permitted just one run, over five innings.  The Reds are a horrible 64-98 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) on the road, and 158-220 (minus 59 games on the moneyline) vs. American League foes.  Take the home underdog Tigers.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Atlanta Braves.  You may be surprised by the fast start of the Rays but you probably shouldn't be.  This is a talented team with star-quality players on both the hitting and pitching sides of the roster.  The Rays always seem to make the right moves and in the off-season they did it again, bring in one of the biggest power bats from Japan (Yoshi Tsutsugo) and trading for talented OF Hunter Renfroe (Padres).  They really didn't have to do much on the pitching side in the off-season as there was already plenty of young (and older) talent on the staff including tonight's starter, LHP Ryan Yarbrough.  Yarbrough already has a scoreless outing to his credit this season, although he took a no-decision in the Rays 4-1 win over Toronto last Saturday.  Yarbrough transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation last season and it doesn't look like he'll be heading back to relief duty anytime soon as he seemed to gain confidence with each start.  Yarbrough is 7-3 in his last 10 road starts.  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over Boston.  In this battle of southpaws, we'll take the homestanding Steven Matz of the Mets.  Matz grew up in Stony Brook, about 40 miles from Citi Field.  And he's always pitched great here, as the Mets are 14-4 (+8 games on the moneyline) his last 18 starts as a home favorite.  Matz made one start earlier this season, and pitched very well against a solid Braves club, as he gave up just one run over six innings, and struck out seven.  In contrast, Martin Perez faced a poor Orioles team, and was crushed for five runs (four earned) in five innings in a 7-2 defeat.  Perez made one start last season vs. New York, and the Mets won that game, 14-4, as a +155 underdog.  Dating back to last season, Boston's excelled against bad teams, but has come up short vs. the better clubs (29-42, minus 20 games on the moneyline vs. winning foes).  And this year's squad should fare even worse, as it's taken a big step backward.  The Mets have won two of the first three games of this four-game set, and have averaged 6.66 runs per game vs. Boston.  I look for them to hit Perez hard, and blow out Boston tonight.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Toronto Blue Jays.  It wasn't long ago that RHP Tanner Roark looked like he would have a bright future in DC as a member of the Nats' rotation.  But after a breakout season in 2016, Roark started nose-diving at the ripe age of 30 and the Nats began bringing in some big-gun arms and they basically gave him away at the end of 2018.  Now Roark is the epitome of the term "journeyman" as the Jays become his third MLB team in less than two years.  This will be Roark's second career start vs. his former team and he hopes it goes better than the first one, a 5-2 loss back on June 1 of last year when he was a member of the Reds.  The Nats will go with talented sophomore starter RH Austin Voth.  The 28-year-old really put up some nice numbers in limited play in 2019, going 2-1 while posting a 3.30 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in nine appearances (eight of those starts) covering just under 44 innings.  Toronto will actually be designated as the "home" team in this game at Nationals Ball Park, and will bat last.  Still, it's worth noting that the Blue Jays are 1-8 in their last nine inter-league games away from home vs. RH starters.  Take Washington.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm. our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  If the Brewers were hoping to compete in the NL Central this season, they got a rude awakening in their first series over the weekend in Chicago.  The Cubs took two of three from Milwaukee and throttled them good in the two victories (3-0 on Friday and 9-1 on Sunday).  Perhaps a trip to Pittsburgh will be just what the doctor ordered for the Crew as they will face a team which they've dominated recently.  RHP Adrian Houser goes for the Brewers and, although he's a #4 starter on paper, many would argue that he should be #2 behind Brandon Woodruff.  He gets a chance to prove it tonight following up on a solid rookie season in 2019 in which he posted a 3.72 ERA in 35 games -- including 18 starts -- with a healthy 9.5 K rate and 3.16 K:BB ratio.  The Brew Crew finished their season series vs. the Bucs last year with six straight wins (three in August and three in September) including three in a row here at PNC.  They are 19-7 in the last 26 vs. Pittsburgh.  Take the Brewers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago White Sox.  Given everything that's happened since the year began, it's not surprising that many MLB transactions back in January and February flew under the radar. And none of those was as quiet as the Dodgers' trade of Kenta Maeda to the Twins back on February 10.  The Japanese star may be 32-years-old but he is just four seasons removed from his rookie campaign in which he won 16 games and posted a 3.48 ERA for Los Angeles, finishing 3rd in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting (2016).  His numbers last season (10-8 with a 4.04 ERA) are very much in line with his MLB average and there's little to suggest that he can't be an effective starter in the AL for the foreseeable future.  He'll get his first start as a Twin against a White Sox team that (notwithstanding yesterday's 10 runs) has a lot of swing-and-miss to its game.  In his only other career start vs. the Sox, Maeta threw five strong innings allowing just one run while picking up the victory.  Despite the loss on Saturday, the Twins are 5-1 in the last six meetings here in Chicago and 6-2 in the last eight overall. And they pounded Reynaldo Lopez last season -- scoring 20 runs in just 15 innings (over three starts).  With the Twins 56-29 (+27 games on the moneyline) their last 85 on the road, we'll take Minnesota.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on Cincinnati Reds over the Detroit Tigers.  This is a "why not us" moment for the Reds.  In a shortened season, the Reds have to be thinking they can win the division.  The NL Central is clearly the weakest in the NL, given that the Cubs are a shell of their former selves, and nobody else looks like world-beaters.  The Reds should clearly be improved over last season when they had more wins (75) than in any of the past five seasons.  The ace of their staff, RH Sonny Gray, takes the mound for the opener against a team which should have no delusions about where it will finish this year.  The Tigers are a bad team and could remain that way for the foreseeable future.  The Yankees gave up on Gray too soon and basically gave him to the Reds for a minor-leaguer.  So, Gray is a bargain for the next three seasons (around $10M/year) provided he continues to pitch like he did in 2019.  I believe he'll get off to a great start this evening, as the Tigers are 34-89 (minus 37 games) their last 123 against righties.  And they're 2-5 in the last seven meetings and 0-4 in the last four here in Cincy.  Take the Reds.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange over North Carolina.  The Tar Heels blew out Virginia Tech yesterday to advance to this 2nd round game vs. Syracuse on Wednesday night.  Unfortunately, the Tar Heels will be at a significant disadvantage tonight since the Orange will be well-rested, as they have not played since Saturday.  And rested ACC Conference teams have gone 34-18 ATS vs. unrested foes in the ACC Tournament, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were playing with revenge, and not favored by 9+ points.  Take Syracuse to blow out North Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats minus the points over Appalachian St.  These two Sun Belt Conference rivals met twice earlier this season, with each team winning SU/ATS on its own home court.  This Quarterfinals match-up will be played in San Marcos, so the Bobcats will have the advantage -- especially given that they blew out the Mountaineers, 82-57, here, earlier this year.  The Bobcats fall into one of my favorite Tourney systems, which is 47-14 ATS since 1990.  That angle plays on certain home teams in conference tourney games vs. foes off wins.  And the Bobcats also fall into 96-47, 160-114 and 76-47 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off defeats to end their regular season.  Lay the points with Texas State.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over Washington.  These two teams met last weekend in Tucson, and the Huskies upset Arizona, 69-63.  That also was Washington's 2nd straight upset win on the road.  We'll fade the Huskies in this Pac-12 Tourney game, as teams off two road upset wins have cashed just 38% in the Conference Tourneys over the past 30 years, if they were matched up against an opponent off a SU loss.  Take Arizona minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the George Washington Colonials minus the points over Fordham.  In this Opening Round match-up in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, we have two teams that are not playing very good basketball.  The Rams have lost 11 of 12 since their 59-54 victory over George Washington, on January 22.  And George Washington hasn't played much better, as it's 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS over its last 12 games.  We'll lay the points with George Washington, as it falls into a 41-13 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as 44-9 and 60-18 ATS Tourney systems of mine that play on certain teams off losses.  Additionally, Atlantic 10 Conference favorites of less than 13 points have gone 169-104 ATS in the A-10 Tournament since 1992, including 37-19 ATS if it lost all the season's previous meetings vs. its opponent.  Take George Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Golden State.  We played against Kawhi Leonard & Co. this past Sunday, and were rewarded with an upset win by the Lakers.  But off that upset defeat, we'll lay the points with the Clippers tonight, as Los Angeles is a spectacular 29-7 SU and 26-10 ATS off a loss.  Additionally, the Warriors won a rare game this past Saturday when they upset the 76ers, 118-114.  Unfortunately for Steve Kerr's men, they're a poor 55-82-2 ATS off a straight-up win, including 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS as an underdog of 8+ points.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over St. Mary's.  The West Coast Conference should just give the Bulldogs a bye into the final game.  After all, this is the 20th season in a row that Gonzaga has reached the title game.  And the Bulldogs have gone 15-5 in those games (but 15-3 straight-up and 12-6 ATS if one eliminates the two title games played on their opponent's home court).  The Gaels, once again, had a great regular season.  But they've never done well in the post-season, and especially not when matched-up against the better teams.  Indeed, St. Mary's is 1-12 ATS as an underdog of 5+ points in the post-season.  Likewise, the Gaels are 12-28 ATS vs. foes that have a scoring margin of 5+ points.  Finally, the Bulldogs fall into 41-6, 102-51 and 18-2 ATS systems of mine.  Take Gonzaga.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over New Jersey.  The Pens have hit the skids, with eight losses in their last 10 games.  And it couldn't have come at a worse time, as the Pens have fallen into 3rd place in the Metropolitan Division, behind the red-hot Flyers, who have won nine straight.  Tonight, the Pens will attempt to get back into the win column, and will be most happy to see a 28-28-12 Devils squad which has been reduced to the role of a spoiler.  Pittsburgh is a solid 58-37 after allowing more than 3 goals, and also 7-3 this season after scoring 2 or less goals in back to back games.  Meanwhile, the Devils are a wallet-busting 2-8 this season off back to back wins, and 18-28 (minus 9 games on the money line) their last 46 in this role.  Take Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Stony Brook Seawolves minus the points over Hartford.  The Hawks took both meetings vs. the Seawolves this season, including a double-digit win here, in February.  But Stony Brook falls into a 397-275 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as a 2nd system which is 81-28 that plays against certain teams off wins.  Even better:  America East Conference teams have gone 42-21 ATS in the Tournament when playing with revenge, including a perfect 6-0 ATS at home when playing with double revenge.  Take Stony Brook.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Northeastern Huskies + the points over Hofstra.  These two teams will meet in the Colonial Athletic Association title game this evening, in Washington, D.C.  They met twice earlier this season, and the Pride took both meetings.  But each of those two regular season games went down to the wire, as Hofstra won the first game, 74-72, at Northeastern, and the second game, at home, 75-71.  I look for the 3rd time to be the charm for the Huskies, as College teams have cashed 65% of Conference Championship games over the last 20 years when playing with revenge from 2 narrow regular season losses by 5 or less points.  Take the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Manhattan Jaspers minus the points over Fairfield.  The Jaspers come into this Metro Atlantic Tourney game off three straight double-digit losses, yet have been installed as a favorite against an opponent which handed it two defeats this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the Jaspers, but we'll step in and lay the small number, as favorites have covered 60% in the post-season since 1990 off back to back double-digit losses, if their opponent was off a SU win.  Take Manhattan.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Wake Forest.  The Panthers lost at home to Wake Forest as a 6.5-point favorite earlier in the season, and have dropped all four meetings since 2017.  Notwithstanding this history, the Panthers have been installed as the favorite in this opening round game of the ACC Tournament.  We'll lay the points, as ACC Conference teams have cashed 67% since 1990 in the post-season, if playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season, and not favored in the tournament game by 3+ points.  Take the Panthers.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Southern Eagles minus the points over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Eagles lost at home, 76-75, to Arkansas St. to end its regular season.  But it will have another opportunity to win a home game tonight, in this Sun Belt Conference tourney game.  These two teams met twice earlier this season, and the Eagles won both games SU/ATS -- including a 20-point victory here in Statesboro.  Georgia Southern is now 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Even better:  the Eagles are a solid 16-4 ATS at home, or on a neutral court when playing off a SU/ATS loss vs. a foe off a SU win, while the Rajin' Cajuns have covered just two of nine tourney games when playing with double-revenge from 2 losses earlier in the season.  Lay the points with Georgia Southern.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm eastern, our selection is on the Delaware Blue Hens + the points over Hofstra.  The Pride come into this game on a 10-1 SU/ATS win streak, including back to back blowout wins over James Madison (97-81) and Drexel (61-43).  And they also blew out today's opponent -- Delaware -- by 16 points in the last meeting, 16 days ago.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Pride.  But .700 (or better) teams off back to back SU/ATS wins by more than 15 points, that also defeated their revenge-minded Tournament opponent by more than 15 points earlier in the season, have covered just 40% over the last 30 seasons.  That doesn't bode well for Hofstra this evening.  Nor does the fact that the Blue Hens are 10-2-1 ATS their last 13 Tournament games.  Take Delaware + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the Anaheim Ducks.  There are less than 15 games left in the season, so every game is critical for the Wild, who sit 1 point behind the Canucks, Predators and Jets in the race for a playoff spot.  Anaheim, on the other hand, won't be a playoff participant this season, so it must content itself to play the role of a spoiler.  So, Minnesota should have more urgency tonight, given the post-season implications.  And the Wild have also dominated the Ducks here, in Anaheim, with four wins in the last five meetings.  We'll look for that trend to continue on Sunday night, with Minnesota looking to bounce back off its 7-3 loss at Los Angeles last night.  The Wild are 30-17 (+10 games on the money line) after a loss by 3+ goals, while the Ducks are an awful 8-19 (minus 11 games on the money line) off a win (and 1-6 off back to back wins).  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Northeastern Huskies minus the points over Towson.  These two teams met at Northeastern last Sunday, and the Tigers came away with a hard-fought 75-72 victory.  That was Towson's 3rd straight win (both SU and ATS), as well.  But we'll go against the Tigers tonight, as Northeastern's 8-1 ATS as a favorite (or PK) vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are a poor 42-63-4 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-5 ATS in the post-season.  And Northeastern also falls into 60-33 and 126-94 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Take the Huskies minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Cleveland.  The Spurs will have a scheduling advantage tonight, as they had Saturday off, while Cleveland played here, at home, vs. the Nuggets.  And the Spurs are a super 96-65 ATS vs. unrested foes.  But that's not the best part.  If the Spurs lost failed to cover the spread by more than 11 points in their previous game, then our unrested opponents have gone 0-29 straight-up, and 3-26 ATS vs. San Antonio!  With the Spurs, indeed, off a blowout loss to the Nets where they failed to cover by 16.5 points, we will lay the wood with San Antonio tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Washington.  The Wizards and Heat have traded home victories over the first three meetings this season.  But I love Miami to break through and win tonight on Washington's home court, notwithstanding Miami's current 4-game road losing streak.  The Wizards come into this game off a 118-112 victory over Atlanta, as a 5.5-point favorite, while Miami lost by 6 at New Orleans, as a 1.5-point underdog (Miami's second straight ATS loss).  Unfortunately for the Wizards, they're an awful 16-29 ATS off a SU/ATS win when facing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss, including 2-11 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +7 points.  And the Wizards have also covered just one of their last 11 (and 22 of their last 62) vs. foes off back to back ATS defeats.  Meanwhile, Miami's a superb 41-16-3 ATS off back to back point spread losses, including 26-6 ATS on the road!  Take the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks + the points over Oral Roberts.  The Mavericks were blown out by 20 points at North Dakota St. last weekend.  But that 20-point loss has triggered a great 45-10 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in tourney games off double-digit losses.  Additionally, the Golden Eagles have covered just 5 of their last 25 post-season games, including 1-11 ATS off back to back wins.  Take Omaha + the points tonight.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  The NBA couldn't be happier that the two best Western Conference teams both reside in Los Angeles, as this budding rivalry should provide great entertainment in late May.  The Lakers have been installed as an underdog in this game, notwithstanding the fact they have won 10 of 11 games, own the conference's best record, and just beat Milwaukee, the league's #1 team.  The only thing not on the Lakers' regular season resume is a win over the rival Clippers, as the Lakers lost the first two meetings of the season.  We'll grab the points, as LeBron James' teams have gone 52-36 ATS when playing with double-revenge vs. a division foe.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are an awful 59-109-4 ATS vs. .589 (or better) foes playing with double-revenge, including 11-31 ATS as a favorite!  Finally, the Lakers are 11-5 straight-up, and 13-3 ATS their last 16 as underdogs.  Take the Lakers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over Michigan.  The #25-ranked Michigan Wolverines have had a very successful season under first-year coach Juwan Howard, as have the Top 10-ranked Maryland Terrapins under ninth-year head coach Mark Turgeon (though they have dropped their last two games).  This will be the final regular season game for each team before the Big 10 Conference Tourney starts next week.  And Michigan has been awful in the underdog role, when playing its final road game of the season, as it's gone 0-6 SU/ATS its last six, with all six losses by DOUBLE-DIGITS, and its average defeat by 19.66 ppg.  It doesn't get much uglier than that.  Even better:  Maryland's 28-14-1 ATS off back to back conference defeats.  Take the Terrapins.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over Pacific.  These two teams split the season series, with each team taking a game on its opponent's home floor.  It's true that the Tigers are playing very well, with seven wins in their last eight games, including a 71-64 victory over San Diego last Saturday, as a 4-point favorite.  Unfortunately, they're a horrid 0-17-1 ATS in the post-season off a SU/ATS win over a conference foe.  Yikes!  The Dons, meanwhile, are also playing well, and won their fourth in a row last night with a 29-point blowout win over Loyola Marymount.  And San Francisco's 21-8 ATS off a SU/ATS win by more than 18 points, and 13-2 SU its last 15 vs. the Tigers.  Finally, West Coast Conference Tourney favorites have gone 72-45-6 ATS when favored by less than 13 points.  Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the NC Greensboro Spartans minus the points over UT-Chattanooga.  The Mocs defeated the Spartans last Saturday, 74-72, as a 3.5-point underdog.  But that upset win has set-up Chattanooga in several negative systems of mine, with records of 54-86, 141-222 and 47-101 ATS since 1990.  Even worse:  the Mocs are an awful 1-9 ATS their last 10 tourney games off a straight-up win, while the Spartans are a strong 15-4 ATS as a favorite when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the year.  Take NC Greensboro.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Murray State.  The Bruins are red-hot, with 11 straight wins coming into this Ohio Valley title game.  These two teams also met last season in the Ohio Valley Conference Championship game, and the Bruins were upset by Murray State, 77-65.  We'll take Belmont to turn the tables on Murray State, as NCAA teams off 9 (or more) wins have cashed 60% in the championship game of the Conference Tourneys over the last 28 years.  Lay the points.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes + the points over Elon.  The Dukes lost both meetings to the Phoenix this season, but they've cashed 69% over the past 25 years when playing with double-revenge, while Elon has covered just 20% over the last 15 seasons against an opponent it defeated twice earlier in the season.  The Dukes also fall into 15-2, 84-39 and 89-60 ATS "contrarian" systems of mine that play on certain teams on losing streaks.  Take James Madison + the points.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Valparaiso Crusaders plus the points over Missouri State.  Both of these teams are playing good basketball.  The Bears have gone 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS with their lone ATS loss in this stretch to Vaparaiso, while Valpo has cashed 7 of its last 9, including an upset win over Loyola-Chicago yesterday.  We'll grab the points with the underdog Crusaders, as they're 8-3 ATS their last 11 vs. Missouri St, while the Bears are 4-13 ATS as a favorite in the Missouri Valley Conference tourney.  Take Valparaiso.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Charlotte.  The Rockets come into this evening's game off back to back SU/ATS losses to the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Clippers.  But Houston was 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS immediately preceding this losing streak.  I love Houston to rebound today on the road, as it's a super 84-51 ATS on the road off back to back SU/ATS defeats.  Admittedly, the Hornets are playing well, as they've covered five straight.  But Charlotte's a very poor 10-30 ATS at home off 3 straight ATS wins, including 4-19 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up loss.  Finally, the Rockets have dominated the Hornets, as they're 17-1 SU and 11-4-3 ATS since 2011.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Drexel Dragons minus the points over NC Wilmington.  The Dragons have dropped seven straight games (1-6 ATS), but we'll lay the points with them this afternoon, as they fall into a 78-28 ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams in the Conference tourneys.  Drexel lost just nine days ago at Wilmington, 76-65.  And revenge-minded favorites of 4 points or less have gone 17-2 ATS in the Colonial Athletic Ass'n Tourney if they were off a loss to end the regular season.  Take Drexel.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Rutgers.  The Boilermakers lost, 70-63, at Rutgers earlier this season.  But the Scarlet Knights were playing much better basketball at that time, as they were 16-5, and ranked among the Top 25.  Unfortunately, since that game, the Scarlet Knights have gone 3-6, including 0-5 away from home!  For the season, Rutgers has won just one of its 11 games away from home, so that doesn't bode well against a Purdue squad which is 11-4 SU at home, and 9-6 ATS.  Even better:  the Boilermakers are 68-46 ATS as single-digit home favorite vs. winning Big 10 Conference foes.  Finally, Rutgers falls into a negative 69-146 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams on the road off a win.  Lay the points with Purdue.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over Wyoming.  The Cowboys have won two straight games after upsetting Nevada last night, as a 10.5-point underdog.  And that followed another upset win as a double-digit underdog vs. Colorado St. to start their Conference tournament play.  Unfortunately, it's highly unlikely that the Cowboys will pull off another win as a double-digit underdog tonight, as the Aggies won both meetings this season by 20+ points.  For technical support, consider that teams off outright wins in the quarter-finals round of a Conference tournament have only covered the spread 37% of the time over the last 30 years vs. foes off an ATS loss.  And teams off back to back SU/ATS wins in the Conference Tourney have covered just 1 of 18 in the semi-final round if they lost by 20+ points in the season's previous meeting.  Take Utah State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus the points over Ohio U.  The RedHawks were blown out by 31 points by Ohio U. back on February 8, 77-46.  But since that game, Miami has gone 6-1 ATS, including three straight point spread wins coming into tonight's game.  We'll lay the points with the RedHawks, as favorites off 3+ ATS wins have cashed 73% over the past 27 sesaons, if they had revenge from a loss to a conference foe by more than 28 points.  Take Miami-Ohio.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the VMI Keydets minus the points over Samford.  The Bulldogs didn't win very many Southern Conference games this season, as they were just 4-14 inside the league.  But two of their wins came against today's opponent, VMI.  We'll take the Keydets today, as Southern Conference teams have cashed 78.9% in the Conference Tourney, if they were favored and lost all the season's meetings to their opponent.  Take VMI.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Drake Bulldogs + the points over Northern Iowa.  We played on the Bulldogs yesterday, and easily got the $$$ when they blew out Illinois State, 75-65.  We'll come right back with Drake this afternoon, as they'll face a Northern Iowa team which embarrassed it last Saturday on Drake's home court.  The Bulldogs were a 3.5-point home underdog, but were held to their lowest offensive output in over 5 years, and lost 70-43.  The good news for the Bulldogs here is that revenge-minded Missouri Valley teams have gone 136-85 ATS if they lost by 18+ points earlier in the season, and were not favored by more than 3 points!  Additionally, the Panthers fall into negative 82-168 and 43-107 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off road wins.  Take Drake + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Los Angeles Kings.  The Kings have won three games in a row, and two of those have come against two of the hotter teams in the League.  Last Wednesday, Los Angeles beat the Penguins, 2-1 and then two games later they followed that up with a dominant 4-1 victory against the Knights in Las Vegas.  But the Maple Leafs could pose a more difficult challenge to L.A. tonight as they are 9-4-1 vs. Pacific Division teams this season (and 16-9-2 vs. teams from the West), while the Kings are just 4-22 in their last 26 games vs. teams from the Atlantic Division, and 1-8 off a road win.  Toronto's loss to the Sharks in San Jose in its last game did snap a three-game winning streak.  But the Leafs are 36-21 (+10 games on the money line) off a road loss.  Take the Maple Leafs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over Washington State.  The Cougars won a rare road game last Friday night, when they went into Seattle and defeated their rival, Washington.  Still that was Wazzu's first road win in the Pac-12 this season, after starting 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS on the Pac-12 road.  And it's a horrid 19-85 straight-up, and 35-65-4 ATS on the Pac-12 road its last 104 road games, including 11-31-1 ATS vs. foes off an ATS defeat.  The Wildcats had a disastrous trip to Southern California last weekend, as they lost to both USC and UCLA.  But Arizona's back home, where it's gone 14-4 SU and 12-6 ATS its last 18.  And it's also 16-8 ATS at home off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Finally, the Wildcats fall into a 111-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset defeats.  Lay the points with Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Austin Peay Governors minus the points over Eastern Illinois.  In this Ohio Valley Tourney game, we'll take the Governors to avenge their 83-80 loss 12 days ago to the Panthers.  That game was on the road in Charleston, where the Panthers went 10-2 this season.  This game will be played at a neutral site, in Evansville, Indiana.  And that bodes well for the Governors, as they've won just five of their last 17 road games, but are 26-0 straight-up, and 11-4-2 ATS at home, or on a neutral court when favored.  And Austin Peay also falls into a 188-100 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain teams favored in the post-season.  Take the Governors.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Evansville Purple Aces + the points over Valparaiso.  The Crusaders have not been a strong post-season team "in Vegas," and especially not when they've matched-up against an opponent with a win percentage less than .800 which wasn't off a double-digit win.  In that situation, the Crusaders are 0-18 ATS.  That doesn't bode well today against an Evansville team which is 9-22 on the season.  These two teams played exceptionally close games this season, with Valpo taking both meetings by exactly two points.  Unfortunately, teams that won both meetings by 2 points or less have NOT fared well in the conference tournaments, and especially not if they played the tourney game away from home, as they've cashed just 29% since 1990.  Take Evansville + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over New Mexico.  The Aggies lost to New Mexico, 66-64, last Saturday.  That game was in Albuquerque, but this game will be played at a neutral site, in Las Vegas.  The Lobos went 15-3 at home this season, and have also gone 23-15 ATS their last 38 home games.  But away from Albuquerque, it's been a different story, as UNM is a poor 9-22 straight-up, and 10-19 ATS, including 1-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog.  Even better:  Utah State's a terrific 24-11-2 ATS at home, or on a neutral court when playing with revenge, including 12-1 ATS if the Aggies weren't off a point spread win.  Finally, New Mexico falls into negative 13-42 and 44-91 ATS Tournament systems of mine that go against certain teams off wins.  Take Utah State minus the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Toreros plus the points over Loyola Marymount.  Both of these teams come into this West Coast Conference tourney game off losses.  The Toreros fell, 71-64, at home vs. Pacific last Saturday, while the Lions lost at home, 69-67, to San Francisco.  Each team also had a miserable season, as the Toreros won just two conference games, while Loyola Marymount was slightly better, at 4-12, including a six-point win vs. San Diego back in January.  But the Lions had the benefit of playing that game at home, in Los Angeles.  This game will be played at a neutral site, in Las Vegas.  We'll grab the points with the underdog Toreros, as revenge-minded conference foes are an awesome 40-12 ATS away from home vs. Loyola Marymount, including a perfect 15-0 ATS if our revenger had a win percentage less than .355.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix minus the points over Oakland.  These two teams met just 11 days ago, and the Golden Grizzlies won, 92-88.  But that game was in Rochester; this game will be played in Green Bay.  And the Phoenix are an awesome 19-0-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge, if they weren't favored by more than 10 points, and didn't cover the spread in their previous game.  With the Phoenix indeed off an ATS loss last Saturday to Cleveland St, our 19-0 ATS angle is triggered.  Lay the points with the Phoenix.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over Montreal.  The Lightning were my preseason choice (at 7-1 odds) to win this year's Stanley Cup.  They got off to a slow start, but came on strong from late-December to mid-February where they won 23 of 26 games.  Since then, they've stumbled to a 1-5 record, so they'll look to get back on track tonight.  The good news is that Montreal is the opponent, and the Canadiens have lost all three games this season to Tampa, and also the last five here at Amalie Arena.  And Montreal's been poor when playing with double-revenge, as it's 25-52 its last 77.  Meanwhile, Tampa's a spectacular 39-9 (+20 games on the money line) vs. Atlantic division rivals, 5-1 this season after not scoring 2+ goals in their previous game, and 56-24 (+18 games on the money line) off a loss.  Take the Lightning.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Drake Bulldogs minus the points over Illinois State.  The Redbirds are 10-20 this season, but one of their 10 victories was an upset win over Drake, in Normal, 12 days ago.  We'll lay the points with Drake in this re-match, as winning teams have gone 95-58 ATS in the post-season vs. losing teams when playing with revenge from an upset road loss.  Take Drake.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Charlotte.  The Hornets come into this game on a 4-game point spread win streak, but tonight's game is an example of facing the wrong opponent at the wrong time.  The Nuggets were favored by 16 points over Golden State on Tuesday, but actually lost by 16, 116-100.  After the game, Denver's All-Star center, Nikola Jokic said, "it happens."  Well, it hasn't happened very often.  Since 1990, it was just the fourth time that an NBA team lost by more than 15 points after being favored by more than 15.  We'll take the Nuggets to bounce back off that embarrassing defeat, as they're 12-7 ATS on the road off an upset home loss.  Even better:  Charlotte's a wallet-busting 1-14 ATS at home off 4 point spread wins.  Take the Nuggets to rebound on Thursday, and blow out Charlotte.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos + the points over UNLV.  This first round game in the Mountain West Conference tournament will once again be played on UNLV's home court (for the 14th straight season).  But that hasn't been a big advantage for the Runnin' Rebels over the years.  And, lately, UNLV's gone 0-4-2 ATS their last six, and 4-10-2 ATS their last 16 Mountain West tournament games here at Thomas & Mack Center.  Coincidentally, these two teams met eight days ago right here, and the Rebels won, 76-66.  But we'll take Boise to avenge that defeat, as it's 6-1 ATS its last seven when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  And it's 27-16 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 9-3 ATS as an underdog.  Take Boise + the points.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Indiana.  We had our biggest NBA play of the season-to-date when these two teams last met.  That game was in Indiana, and the Pacers blew out Milwaukee to snap a long, 6-game losing streak.  For this game, however, it's a Bucks team which is off a loss, while Indiana's won four straight.  Since Mike Budenholzer took over as head coach, the Bucks are an awesome 23-6 ATS in the regular season off a loss, including a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS vs. winning teams.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Detroit.  The Thunder come into tonight's game off back to back losses.  Of course, those were to possibly the two best teams in basketball -- the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Clippers -- so there's no great shame in losing them.  Tonight, the Thunder will step down in class to play the Detroit Pistons, who have lost eight of their last nine games, including a 108-101 setback to the Thunder on February 7.  Overall, the Thunder have won 13 of the last 17 meetings vs. Detroit.  And they've also covered nine of 11 off back to back losses.  The Pistons have covered their last two games -- both on the road -- but are an awful 6-18-1 ATS their last 25 off a point spread win, including 0-7 ATS at home.  Take the Thunder to blow out Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls minus the points over Tulsa.  The Owls were upset by Tulsa on the road earlier this season.  But they're back home tonight, in Philadelphia, for their final home game of the season.  And it's a venue where the Owls have dominated.  Indeed, over the last 15 seasons, Temple is 48-11 SU and 42-16-1 ATS at home when favored by six points or less (or PK).  But that's not the best part.  When Temple played a conference foe in this price range, then it has gone 31-6 SU/ATS at home its last 37.  Since 2008, the Owls have gone 12-0 on "Senior Night" -- their final home game of the season, and have covered nine of those 12 games.  Lay the points with the Owls.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies minus the points over St. Joseph's.  The Hawks won a rare conference game their last time out, as they bested Fordham, 73-69.  Unfortunately, the Hawks aren't likely to win tonight, as they're 2-15 SU/ATS their last 17 off a win.  St. Bonaventure will play its final home game of the season tonight, and will attempt to snap a two-game losing streak.  We'll lay the points with the Bonnies, as college teams have cashed 61% since 1990 as double-digit favorites in their final home game of the season, if they were off back to back upset defeats.  Take St. Bonaventure minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Phoenix.  After winning 17 of 18 games, the Raptors have hit a mini-speed bump.  Toronto's lost its last three games, but two of those three games were vs. the 52-9 Milwaukee Bucks, and on the road to the 41-19 Nuggets.  So, it's best not to view the Raptors' glass as half-empty.  Tonight, the Raptors should snap their losing streak, as they'll be facing a Suns team which has gone 10-16 SU and 7-19 ATS its last 26.  Even better:  Phoenix is 3-14 SU and 6-10-1 ATS its last 17 as a home underdog, while the Raptors are an awesome 39-12-2 ATS off back to back losses when priced from -2.5 to -11 points.  Finally, .700 (or better) road favorites, off 3+ losses, have cashed 64% over the last 30 years vs. losing teams.  Lay the points with the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers minus the points over Arkansas Little Rock.  The Panthers will play their final home game of the season tonight, and they'll look to snap a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  Meanwhile, Arkansas Little Rock comes into tonight's game off 3 SU/ATS wins.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the hot Trojans, but consider that teams playing their final home game of the season have cashed 62% since 1990 if they were off 3 SU/ATS losses, and their opponent was off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Take the Panthers.

At 7 pm, in the opening round of the Patriot League Tournament, our selection is on the Loyola Maryland Greyhounds + the points over Lehigh.  This is a rematch of Saturday's game, won by Lehigh, 74-71, at Loyola Maryland.  And the Mountain Hawks also won the season's first meeting here, in Bethlehem.  We'll take the Greyhounds this evening, as they're 37-17 ATS on the road when playing with double-revenge, while Lehigh's 0-4 ATS its last four off an upset road win.  Take Loyola Maryland.

At 7 pm, in the opening round of the Big South Tournament, our selection is on the Charleston Southern Buccaneers minus the points over Presbyterian.  The Buccaneers come into this game on a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak.  But they should be able to get back into the win column this evening, as they've owned the Blue Hose over the years.  The Bucs have won 20 of the last 25 meetings, including 12-1 their last 13 meetings here, in Charleston.  And the Blue Hose are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS their last 10 post-season games as an underdog.  Finally, the Buccaneers fall into 86-59, 124-91, 43-17 and 112-60 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in the post-season off SU losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over the New York Knicks.  New York defeated Chicago here on Saturday night, 125-115.  But it had lost its six previous games (1-4-1 ATS).  I love going against bad teams off victories, and we'll do that here, as we note that double-digit home underdogs, with a win percentage of .300 (or less), have covered just 24.0% over the last 30 years if they won at home in their previous game.  That doesn't bode well for New York this evening.  Even worse:  the Knicks are a wallet-busting 0-20 SU and 6-13-1 ATS its last 20 games as a double-digit home underdog, and they're 4-15 ATS their last 19 at home vs. Houston.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over North Carolina State.  We played on the Wolfpack in the season's first meeting, 12 days ago, and were rewarded with an 88-66 blowout win over the Blue Devils.  NC State was a 6-point home underdog in that game, so it covered by 28 points!  For this game, though, we'll lay the double-digits with Duke, as revenge-minded College Basketball teams, off back to back SU losses, have covered 61% since 1990 as favorites of 5+ points, if they lost the first meeting by 15+ points.  Additionally, the Blue Devils are a solid 19-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 12 points in the regular season off a SU loss.  Take the Blue Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Golden State Warriors.  Last night, Golden State pulled off a big upset when it went into Phoenix, and upset the Suns, 115-99, as an 11-point road underdog.  That was just Golden State's 13th win of the season (against 47 losses), and faithful followers know I love playing against bad teams off wins.  We won't make an exception here, and will play against the Warriors as a home underdog tonight.  For technical support, consider that the Warriors are an awful 1-11-1 ATS when playing without rest off a straight-up win.  Additionally, .375 (or worse) NBA home teams have covered just 37% over the last 30 years, if they were off exactly one win (on the road), and were playing without rest vs. a foe off a straight-up loss.  Take the Wizards minus the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.