Sports Picks & Predictions

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Washington Nationals.  There are comebacks and then there is the comeback that the Nats had on Tuesday night.  Down 10-4 after the Mets scored five runs in the top of the ninth, the Nats responded in the bottom of the inning with seven runs, including the clincher -- a dramatic three-run, walk-off homer by catcher Kurt Suzuki.  No matter what happens today, it won't match the drama of last night, and that will be fine with the Mets as long as they can avoid another meltdown.  RHP Zack Wheeler will take his nine wins to the mound in the series finale this afternoon.  Throughout his career -- all of which has been with the Mets -- Wheeler has consistently pitched better on the road than he has at home.  In 64 career road starts, Wheeler is 24-15 (.615) with a 3.48 ERA vs. 18-22 (.450) with a 4.29 number in 57 starts in Queens.  The Nats will go with veteran RH Anibal Sanchez.  Despite a successful season overall, the Nats are 0-4 in Sanchez's last four home starts vs. teams with a winning record.  And, notwithstanding yesterday's loss, the Mets are still 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the New York Mets.  The Mets won Round 1 of this three-game series on Labor Day and it wasn't close.  Noah Syndergaard bounced back and threw seven innings of shutout ball on the way to a 7-3 Mets victory in the Nation's capital.  We had New York yesterday (part of a 3-0 Baseball sweep), but will switch gears and take the home team this evening.  Tonight's Game 2 features a marquee pitching match-up that many will want to see.  The top two starters in the League last season based on the NL Cy Young results will go to the mound as RH Jacob deGrom gets start number 28 for the Mets opposite RH Max Scherzer, who goes to the hill for the 23rd time for the Nationals.  Scherzer made his first start back from a rare trip to the IL last time and was limited to 90 pitches in 4 1/3 innings against the Orioles in a game the Nats won easily 8-4.  He didn't have his best stuff in that start last Wednesday but I expect to see a much-improved performance today in a game which means a lot more than Scherzer's last start.  In fact, the Nats are now 9-1 in Scherzer's last 10 starts overall while the Mets are 1-4 in deGrom's last five road starts vs. teams with a winning record.  Take the Nationals.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Seattle Mariners.  There is quite a bit of hype surrounding Justus Sheffield.  The 23-year-old southpaw was the first round draft pick of the Indians in 2014 when he was just 18 years old.  He didn't last long in Cleveland, getting shipped to the Yankees and then from New York to Seattle last year in the deal that sent James Paxton to the Bronx.  Despite appearing in three games last season and three more so far in 2019, it appears that Sheffield is still a work in progress.  Even his numbers in AAA before he got the call-up to the Mariners indicated that Sheffield wasn't ready for the prime time.  And in his three appearances in the bigs (including two starts), Sheffield is 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in just over 11 innings.  But regardless, the M's will put him back on the mound this afternoon in his first start at Wrigley Field.  The Cubs will go with veteran RH Kyle Hendricks who is 9-9 with a 3.47 ERA in 25 starts, which pretty much mirrors the successful campaign he had in 2018.  The Cubs are 12-2 in their last 14 interleague games vs. a LH starter, and we'll lay the big price on Monday.  Take Chicago.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the San Francisco Giants.  The Cards are the only team that veteran RHP Adam Wainwright has pitched for in his 15 years in the league.  With his 1-year, $2 Million contract set to expire at the end of this season, it seems unlikely that Wainwright will be back in a Cardinals uniform.  So no doubt, the veteran -- who has a World Series Ring from his second year in the Majors -- wants to go out on a high note and help his team make the post-season one last time before he departs.  And one more victory would give Wainwright at least 10 for the 10th time in his stellar career as he currently sits at 9-9 with a 4.52 ERA in 25 starts.  Wainwright has had a lot of success against the Giants in his career, as he owns a very nice 3.31 ERA in his 16 games (14 starts) vs. San Francisco.  Even better:  in 138 afternoon games (107 starts) in his career, Wainwright is 59-31 (.656) with a 3.37 ERA.  Take the Cards.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Washington Nationals.  Noah Syndergaard's last start on August 28 is one he'd rather just forget.  The big 27-year-old RH took the mound at home against the Cubs on that day and proceeded to give up 10 runs (nine earned) on nine hits in just three innings -- quite possibly the worst start of his now five-season MLB career.  Syndergaard will look to get back on the winning track this afternoon in DC in his 27th start of 2019.  It will be his fifth start of the season against the Nats and that's not a bad thing as the man they call Thor is 1-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with 24 strikeouts and five walks in 27 innings vs. them.  And in two starts in 2019 at Nationals Park, Syndergaard is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 14 innings.  Thanks in large part to that disastrous start last time out, Syndergaard's ERA on the road this season is more than a run better than it is at Citi Field (3.49 vs. 4.73).  Finally, the Mets are 9-4 in Syndergaard's last 13 starts overall, 4-0 in his last four vs. NL East teams, and 6-1 in his last seven vs. teams with a winning record.  Take the Mets.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Los Angeles Angels.  After a strong bounce-back season in 2018 in which he won 16 games in 30 starts with a 3.58 ERA, veteran LHP David Price has taken a bit of a step backwards this season.  But despite just seven victories and a 4.36 ERA in 21 starts covering 105 1/3 innings, there are some things to like about Price's campaign so far.  The 33-year-old is punching out hitters at a higher rate this season than ever before (10.8 K rate) and he's kept his walk and home run rates down at the same level they were last season (1.3 and 2.6 respectively).  So now that Price is healthy, I expect him to have a strong final month of the regular season, even if it won't help the Red Sox get to the post-season -- which seems unlikely at this point.  In fact, September is Price's strongest month as he is 28-9 (.757) with a 3.03 ERA in 62 games (52 starts) in the final month throughout his career.  The Red Sox are also 16-5 in Price's last 21 starts vs. teams with a losing record.  Take Boston. MLB High Roller Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Heading into last Sunday's marquee match-up against the Yankees in prime-time, Dodgers' LH ace Clayton Kershaw was a perfect four-for-four in his August starts, taking his record to 13-2 on the season.  Despite pitching very well in that start against the Yankees -- three runs on four hits in seven innings with 12 strikeouts and no walks -- Kershaw took his first loss since the end of June.  We actually played against Kershaw in that interleague game, and cashed a big play on the Yankees +158.  But we will back Kershaw tonight on the road vs. the Dodgers' division rivals, Arizona.  For his career, Kershaw has done well against the D-Backs, going 16-9 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 32 starts covering just under 201 innings.  Los Angeles is 8-3 in Kershaw's last 11 starts vs. Arizona, and it is also 57-16 in Kershaw's last 73 starts vs. division rivals.  Take the Dodgers.  MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Vanderbilt.  The Commodores have been an SEC doormat for much of their existence, and have lost each of their last five seasons.  They've gone 0-5 ATS their last five as a home underdog, and I look for them to get blown out tonight by a Georgia team which surely will want to redeem itself following its poor showing in the NCAA Football Playoffs last year against Texas.  The Bulldogs are 20-8 ATS their last 28, while College Football teams have cashed 64% in Game 1 of the season (including 8-0 ATS their last eight) when favored away from home by more than seven points vs. conference foes.  Take Georgia.  NCAA Football Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets.  Five starts into his Philadelphia career, veteran southpaw Jason Vargas has yet to win his first game in a Phillies uniform.  The good news is that the 36-year-old has been pitching well and the Phils have won two of his starts so far, including his last one against the Pirates last Monday.  Vargas gets his first start as a Phillie against his former team this afternoon.  Vargas pitched for the Mets in 2007, and also the last two seasons, before he was traded to Philadelphia at the end of July.  The Mets will counter with LHP Steven Matz.  In his fifth year in the Majors -- all with the Mets -- Matz is 8-8 with a 4.06 ERA in just under 129 innings.  But the most telling statistic for this afternoon is Matz's record at Citizens Bank Park.  In six starts here covering 22 innings, Matz is 0-4 with an ugly 8.18 ERA and 2.09 WHIP.  The Phils got crushed on Friday by an 11-5 final score, which was a nice win for us, as we had our MLB Division Underdog of the Week on the Mets.  However, we'll switch gears and take the home team this afternoon, as it is 19-9 in its last 28 after allowing five runs or more in its previous game.  Finally, the Mets are 1-6 in Matz's last seven road starts.  Take Philly.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets + the points over Kentucky.  The Rockets have won every single season this decade.  They're 79-37 straight-up since 2010, and will go for their 10th straight winning year in 2019.  One of Toledo's best point spread categories over this time is on the road, where it's gone 31-20 ATS.  That bodes well this afternoon vs. a Kentucky team, which has tallied just three winning seasons among its last nine.  And the Wildcats have gone just 23-32 ATS at home in this stretch, including 0-7 ATS as a home favorite since 2017, and also 0-7 ATS its last seven vs. non-conference foes, dating back to November 28, 2015.  The Mid-American Conference has cashed 37 of 65 on the road vs. SEC Conference foes, and the Wildcats are ripe for an upset, as they graduated all-SEC running back Benny Snell, who was drafted in the 4th round by the Pittsburgh Steelers, as well as linebacker Josh Allen, who was the National Defensive Player of the Year last season, and drafted in the 1st round by Jacksonville.  Take the points with Toledo as a big underdog.  NCAA Football High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over Colorado.  This rivalry has been controlled by Colorado over the last four years, as it's gone 4-0 straight-up, and 3-0-1 ATS, including a 45-13 win to open its season last year.  But I love Colorado State to avenge that defeat, as it falls into 127-61, 35-13 and 80-48 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Even better:  the underdog is 19-11-1 ATS in this series, including 7-0 ATS priced from +7.5 to +17.5 when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss.  Also, the Rams are 25-13-1 ATS as a non-conference underdog of +12 or more points.  Take the points in this rivalry game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies.  It's now or never for the Mets.  The New York team from the NL has lost six straight, having been swept by both the Braves and Cubs and now the Mets are a whopping 13 games out of first place and five games behind in the race for the final Wild Card spot.  To say that this weekend series against the Phillies is their biggest of the season would be an understatement.  Game 1 will feature RHP Zack Wheeler whose season mirrors somewhat that of his team.  The 29-year-old is 9-7 with a 4.46 ERA in 25 starts covering just over 155 innings.  The good news for tonight is that Wheeler does very well against the Phillies and really enjoys pitching at Citizens Bank Park.  In 14 career starts against tonight's opponent, Wheeler is 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA.  And in six starts here in Philadelphia, he is 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 38 innings.  The Mets are 12-2 in their last 14 road games vs. right-handed starters and 5-2 in their last seven road games vs. teams with a winning home record.  Take New York as the road underdog tonight.  MLB Division Underdog of the Week!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Houston was shutout, 34-0, last week by its Lone Star state rival, Dallas.  I love the Texans to bounce back off that blowout loss, as teams have covered 70.8% in the preseason after failing to cover the point spread by more than 32 points in their previous game (including 89% off a shutout loss).  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Chicago.  The Titans were embarrassed at home last week, 18-6, by the Pittsburgh Steelers.  But off that awful offensive performance, we'll grab the points with the road team on Thursday.  For technical support, consider that road underdogs off a home loss where they scored less than 7 points have covered 71% since 1983 in the preseason when matched up against a foe off a straight-up win.  Take Tennessee.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants over New England.  Both of these teams come into this game with 3-0 records.  But we'll take the road underdog in this final preseason game, as underdogs have cashed 64.2% since 1997 in the preseason if they won their three previous games straight-up (including 79% if their opponent was also off back to back wins).  Take New York.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Chicago Cubs.  Jacob deGrom had one of the most amazing seasons in 2018.  Despite getting little run support and barely finishing with a record over .500 (10-9), the Mets' RH ace had some of the best numbers of any starter in recent memory (a 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 269 strikeouts in 217 innings).  In the end, deGrom was recognized for his incredible performance and was voted the NL Cy Young for the first time in his career.  He's having another great campaign so far in 2019, notwithstanding his (once again) pedestrian 8-7 W/L record.  Sure, the ERA is 2.56 instead of that eye-popping number last season, but he leads the league with 207 strikeouts and is among the league leaders in most other pitching categories.  He'll get start number 27 tonight and it will come against a Cubs team against which he's had modest success.  Jon Lester will start for Chicago and, after a successful July in which he went 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in four starts, he has really struggled this month.  In five August starts, Lester is 1-3 with an 8.51 ERA and 2.01 WHIP.  Additionally, the Cubs are 8-20 as a road underdog this year, including 2-6 behind Lester.  Take the Mets.  MLB High Roller Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Cincinnati.  This is a big revenge game for the Bruins, who were walloped, 26-17, as a two-touchdown favorite by the Bearcats last season.  That was Chip Kelly's debut as the UCLA coach, following the departure of Jim Mora.  And it was a harbinger of things to come, as UCLA finished the 2018 campaign with just three victories.  The reality last season was that Kelly was missing a lot of pieces on offense.  UCLA's star quarterback, Josh Rosen, had just been drafted into the NFL.  And the Bruins also had graduated their top two receivers, and three all-conference linemen.  More important to me than its 3-9 record last season was the fact that UCLA improved toward the end of the year, as it gained experience playing under Kelly.  Indeed, the Bruins went 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, including a 34-27 upset win over rival Southern Cal.  This season, however, most of UCLA's key personnel will be back, as it returns 19 starters (9 offense; 10 defense).  In contrast, the Bearcats are returning just 14 players (7 offense, 7 defense).  That bodes well for UCLA.  As does the fact that the Bruins are an awesome 70-45 ATS in regular season non-conference games.  Take UCLA + the points.  NCAA Football Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Kansas City Royals.  If the Oakland A's make the 2019 post-season, they will have done it with one of the largest and most varied collection of starting pitchers in recent memory.  The A's have used no fewer than 13 different players as starters or openers this season, and you wouldn't think that would be a formula for success. But here we are almost in September, and Oakland is 20 games over .500 and right in the thick of the AL Wild Card race.  One of those somewhat anonymous starters for the A's this season is 30-year-old RH Chris Bassitt.  In 22 starts, Bassitt is 9-5 with a solid 3.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in just over 125 innings. Start number 23 will come against a Royals team which Bassitt has not faced so far this season.  And KC has been the worst offensive team in the entire league this month.  In 23 August games, the Royals are batting .219 and have plated a league-worst 88 runs.  The A's are 16-6 in the last 22 meetings with the Royals, and we'll take them on the road this afternoon.  Take Oakland.  MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Houston Astros.  If this series is a playoff preview, then the Rays will have to do better than last night.  The 'Stros embarrassed their visitors on Tuesday, handing the Rays a 15-1 beat-down here at Minute Maid Park.  If anyone can get them out of their funk, perhaps it's LHP Ryan Yarbrough who's been doing it pretty much all season for the Rays.  Most people didn't even know who Yarbrough was when he won 16 games and finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting for the Rays in 2018, and perhaps not many more do now.  But nobody can deny the impact that the 27-year-old southpaw has had on his team this season, especially in the wake of the serious elbow injury to ace Blake Snell.  All Yarbrough has done is go 11-3 with a 3.29 ERA in 22 games -- eight starts -- covering just over 109 innings so far.  But the most impressive stat -- and most relevant to tonight -- is the fact that the Rays are 6-0 in Yarbrough's last six road starts.  Take Tampa Bay.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Baltimore Orioles.  In the Washington-Baltimore corridor they call it "The Battle of the Beltways" and round one went to the Orioles on Tuesday night.  Who would have thought that of all the teams that could stop the offensive juggernaut that has been the Washington Nationals over the past 10 days it would be the Orioles?  However they came into DC last night and shut down Turner, Rendon, and Soto in a 2-0 upset.  But tonight they will have another problem to deal with and that problem is Max Scherzer.  For only the second time since he joined the Nats, Scherzer had to go on the IL recently with a neck/back issue.  But as you might expect with a player as intense as Scherzer, his stay on the shelf was short-lived and the veteran RH came back on August 22 with a shortened start (four innings) in a game the Nats won easily.  He should be ready to go for a longer workload tonight as the Nats prepare for what appears to be an almost certain post-season run.  Despite their win on Tuesday, the O's are just 3-8 in the last 11 meetings with the Nats.  Take Washington.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  It's been a rough season for the Phillies veteran RH Vince Velasquez.  Once thought of as a potential ace in 2016 when he posted eight wins with a 4.12 ERA and a 10.4 strikeout rate, things have gone downhill for the 27-year-old in the two plus seasons since then.  So far in 2019, Velasquez is 5-7 with a 4.93 ERA in 27 games including 17 starts coming into tonight.  But if there's a silver lining to his cloud -- at least for tonight -- it might be the fact that Velasquez has pitched substantially better at home this season than he has on the road.  Velasquez's ERA is more than a full run better here at Citizens Bank Park this season than it is when he pitches elsewhere (4.22 vs. 5.31).  And the Phils are 8-3 in Velasquez's last 11 home starts.  The other major positive for him tonight is the fact that he will be facing a Pirates team that is currently 20 games under .500.  And as bad as Velasquez has been, RHP Mitch Keller -- who will get his seventh start of the season tonight -- has been even worse (1-2 with a 7.24 ERA).  Take the Phillies.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over San Diego.  Walker Buehler will get the start for L.A. tonight, and he's absolutely dominated the Padres in his career.  He's made 3 starts (including one against his mound opponent, Cal Quantrill, earlier this month), and has given up just 2 runs over 22 innings (0.82 ERA).  He's also struck out 31 batters in those 22 innings, while allowing just nine hits and three walks (0.54 WHIP).  San Diego's a horrid 23-46 (minus 18 games on the money line) as a home underdog, while Los Angeles is 63-26 (plus 17 games on the money line) as a favorite priced -150 or higher.  Take the Dodgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Houston Astros.  This pitching match-up between RHs Charlie Morton of the Rays and Justin Verlander of the Astros has so many interesting angles to it.  First, there's the fact that these two aces facing each other is something we could see in October in the post-season.  Then there's the fact that Morton and Verlander were teammates in Houston the past two seasons and have a World Series ring together (2017).  Finally, there's the irony that there's more pressure on Verlander as the favorite tonight because the Astros have lost each of the veteran Cy Young winner's last three starts at odds of -471, -187, and -518.  We'll take Morton tonight in an underdog role, as he is enjoying another great campaign, with a 13-5 record and 2.85 ERA in 27 starts, covering 161 innings.  The Rays are also 11-3 in their last 14 road games and 10-4 in Morton's last 14 road starts.  Take Tampa Bay.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.  Cleveland's sitting 3 1/2 games behind the first place Twins, and also just got the bad news that All Star 3B Jose Ramirez will be lost for the remainder of the year (hamate bone).  So these intra-division series against losing teams are extremely important.  And with starters Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco still down and out, the remaining starts from RHP Adam Plutko are also critical.  Plutko goes to the mound for the 15th time this season (14th start) tonight in Detroit.  He already has a win here as back on June 14, the 27-year-old threw six quality innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits with six strikeouts and one walk in a 13-4 Indians blow-out.  That was his third victory of the season and he's added two more since then -- both in August.  RHP Spencer Turnbull goes for the Tigers, and despite a decent ERA of 4.05, Turnbull has an ugly 3-12 record and Detroit is just 6-17 in his 23 starts (including 0-11 his last 11).  Meanwhile, the Tribe is 11-4 in Plutko's last 15 starts.  Take Cleveland.  MLB Elite Info. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Toronto Blue Jays.  For this game, please only list Atlanta's starter, Mike Soroka (and not Toronto's starter).  There's no question that young Braves RHP Soroka will get some serious consideration for NL Rookie of the Year.  But with the recent injury to Max Scherzer, and Hyun-Jin Ryu actually losing his last start, Soroka just might also garner some backing for the Cy Young award.  After all, the second year player -- who is just 22 years old -- is 10-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 23 starts covering just under 142 innings.  And Soroka's HR rate of 0.5 per nine innings is the best in the league. (Some would argue that's the most important stat for a starting pitcher.)  He'll get his third inter-league start of the season as the Braves will travel north of the border for the first time since last June.  And it will be a "homecoming" of sorts, as Soroka is Canadian (though from western Canada).  Soroka threw quality starts in each of his previous two inter-league outings against the Tigers and Twins.  More importantly, Soroka has been an absolute beast on the road this season.  In 10 starts in Atlanta, he is 4-2 with a 3.90 ERA.  However, in 13 starts away, Soroka is an incredible 6-0 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.  Take the Braves.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  The Brewers were looking for a three-game home sweep of the D-Backs on Sunday, having easily won the first two games.  But it didn't happen and now the Crew faces the most critical stretch of the season with the next 12 games coming against the Cubs (7), Astros (2), and Cards (3).  But the good news is that nine of those 13 games are here at home, starting with the next three days.  LHP Gio Gonzalez helped the Brewers win their Division and get to the NLCS last season and now the team is hoping he will do it again.  It's almost September, and that's a good time of year for the 33-year-old southpaw who is 29-16 (.644) with a 3.42 ERA in 58 career games (55 starts) the last month of the season.  And even though he is 3-4 in 11 career starts vs. the Cards, Gonzalez does own a very nice 3.11 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in just under 67 innings against them.  The other good news is that the home team is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings of these two clubs.  Take the Brewers. MLB Roadkill Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  There have been plenty of highs and lows for the Phillies this season.  Certainly one of the lows was the just-concluded weekend series in Miami.  At the worst, one would have expected the Phils to take two of three from the Fish with a sweep being a distinct possibility.  But instead, Philly left south Florida with just one victory and now find itself 5 1/2 and 11 1/2 games behind the surging Nats and Braves, respectively.  The good news is it's back home to face a Pirates team that isn't much -- if any -- better than the Marlins right now -- and one which it has dominated recently.  LHP Jason Vargas will go in his fifth start for the Phils.  Still looking for his first Philly victory, Vargas has pitched well for the most part, posting a 3.91 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 23 innings so far.  (That's better than he did with the Mets before he was traded here.)  Vargas is also 2-0 in six career appearances (three starts) vs. the Bucs, while Pittsburgh is 12-22 (-8 games on the money line) in its last 34 games vs. LH starters.  Take the Phillies.  MLB High Roller Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  If you look up the term "breakout season" in the dictionary, you will likely see a picture of 2019's Domingo German.  It hasn't always been pretty for the Yankees 27-year-old RH from the Dominican, but one thing you can't deny -- German knows how to win games.  Despite an ERA slightly north of 4.00, German has a stellar 16-3 record in 22 games (21 starts), and the Yankees are 17-4 in his starts.  And German's 16 wins are the most by any pitcher in the League.  He'll go for no. 17 tonight on National TV in this rubber match in L.A.  The Dodgers will counter with LHP Clayton Kershaw.  Like German, Kershaw has had a very good, but injury-shortened, season, going 13-2 in 22 starts covering 143 innings.  Kershaw's undefeated home record looks eerily similar to the one teammate Hyun-Jin Ryu had before Ryu took the mound here on Friday night.  But the Yanks knew how to handle the southpaw Ryu and his spotless home ledger.  Indeed, the Yanks are hitting .277 with a .496 SLG % vs. southpaws this season, and they're 25-14, +6 games on the money line vs. lefties.  They'll look to do the same to Kershaw and his 9-0 Chavez Ravine record tonight.  Take New York.  MLB High Roller Winner.  As always good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the San Francisco Giants.  The Oakland A's are at it again -- taking veteran starters who appear to be washed-up and resurrecting their careers.  One of the latest reclamation projects is LHP Brett Anderson.  The oft-injured 31-year-old was little more than an afterthought when he signed with the A's in March of 2018 after two sign-and-release stints with the Cubs and Jays the year prior.  And in fact Anderson pitched like an afterthought through most of last season, going 4-5 with a 4.48 ERA in just 17 big-league starts.  But this season, it's starting to click once again for Anderson who is 10-9 with a 4.06 ERA in 25 starts.  And those 25 starts represent something we haven't seen from Anderson very often -- an injury-free season.  Start number 26 will come this afternoon against a team which Anderson is very familiar with from his two seasons with the Dodgers (2015-2016).  The As are 15-10 in Anderson's starts this season and they are 36-17 in their last 53 home games, and 85-41, +28 games on the money line, their last 126 as a home favorite.  Meanwhile, the Giants are 2-5 in their last seven inter-league games vs. winning teams.  Take Oakland. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves.  With all of the bad pitching going around the league these days (both starters and relievers), it's good to see an old fashioned extra-innings pitching duel for a change.  The Braves and Mets played just such a game on Friday night, with the Braves finally prevailing in extra innings.  They will reload tonight and again it will be with a couple of pretty good pitchers going to the mound in the Mets' RH Zach Wheeler and the Braves' LH Max Fried.  Wheeler has been pretty consistent all season, although he's lowered his ERA more than a half-run since the middle of June (from a high of 4.94 to its current 4.40).  But Wheeler has definitely preferred pitching here at Citi Field this season, as in 11 home starts, he is 5-2 with a 4.20 ERA in 70 2/3 innings vs. 4-5 with a 4.58 ERA in just under 79 innings on the road.  The Mets are 10-2 (+7 games on the money line) in Wheeler's last 12 starts as a home favorite of -110 or higher.  And they are 18-7 (+12 games on the money line) in his last 25 second-half starts.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers.  After being mired in mediocre pitching numbers for years -- a roughly .500 record with ERAs around five runs -- Twins RH Kyle Gibson is finally having a productive campaign in his seventh season.  Gibson is 11-6 (.647) with a 4.40 ERA and a career-best 2.96 K:BB ratio in 26 games (25 starts) covering 139 innings.  Although Gibson's ERA is higher here at home than it is on the road, the 31-year-old has a substantially better record at Target Field (7-3) than he does when pitching elsewhere (4-3).  The Tigers will go with the well-traveled RH Edwin Jackson.  The 17-year veteran is in his second stint with the Tigers (he pitched for Detroit in 2009) and it's pretty clear at this point that the 35-year-old's best years are well behind him.  In 11 games (eight starts) in 2019 with Toronto and Detroit, Jackson is 3-6 with an 8.46 ERA in just under 45 innings.  The Twins are 22-5 (+10 games on the money line) in their last 27 as a favorite of -200 or more.  Take Minnesota.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins.  After a promising 2018 campaign -- his third in the Majors -- in which he won 11 of 24 starts, expectations were pretty high for Phillies' RHP Zach Eflin coming into 2019.  So far it's been a lost season for the 25-year-old who has managed a record of just 7-11 with a 4.57 ERA in 25 appearances (21 starts).  But Eflin also knows that if he turns it around the rest of the way and helps his team get to the post-season, it will erase everything he's done up to this point.  Tonight would be a great time to get started with that turnaround as Eflin faces the 46-81 Marlins for the fourth time this season.  After a disastrous July (0-4 with an 11.88 ERA) Eflin was relegated to the bullpen to start August and has responded nicely.  Eflin's pitched better this month and deserves another starting shot especially in light of the recent news that Jake Arrieta has been lost for the season (elbow).  The Marlins won a shootout here in Miami last night, but they are still just 19-42 in their last 61 games vs. NL East opponents.  Take the Phillies.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the New York Yankees.  The Dodgers were blown out, 10-2, last night.  And that was the first time all season they lost at home with Hyun Jin Ryu on the mound.  Today, they'll look to bounce back with Tony Gonsolin getting the start opposite CC Sabathia.  And we'll go against the Yankee southpaw, as Sabathia has an 11.92 ERA in his last three starts (all New York losses).  Even worse for New York:  it's 4-17 its last 21 as road underdogs of +150 or less, while the Dodgers are 13-1 in daytime home games, and 51-17 overall at home this season.  Take the Dodgers.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers.  If the Twins are going to make a deep run in the post-season -- whether it's as a Division Champ or a Wild Card -- they will need their aces to step up.  That includes RHP Jose Berrios.  The 25-year-old Puerto Rican has been getting knocked around a bit in the month of August (0-1 with a 8.44 ERA in three starts).  If something is going to help Berrios bounce back, then it might just be a start at home against the Tigers.  In eight career games vs. Detroit (seven starts), Berrios is 4-1 in 36 innings -- although the ERA is quite high.  One of those victories was earlier this season -- April 14 to be exact -- when he threw 6 2/3 quality innings, allowing just two runs on four hits with seven strikeouts and one walk in a 6-4 Twins win.  And in 11 home starts this season, Berrios is 5-2 with a 3.27 ERA in just under 72 innings.  The Tigers are 2-6 in the last eight meetings at Target Field and 4-12 in the last 16 meetings overall.  Take the Twins against Drew VerHagen (6.67 ERA; 1.82 WHIP) and the Tigers tonight.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals.  The Indians return home after a rain-shortened loss last night in the third game of their series in Queens.  They not only get TO step down in class by facing the Royals this weekend, but they also get to use a DH once again.  Game 1 will feature RHPs Jakob Junis (KC) and rookie Zach Plesac.  Plesac's debut season has been a success so far as the 24-year-old is 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA in 15 starts.  He certainly shouldn't mind facing the Royals for the fourth time this season.  In his three previous starts vs. KC (the most he's had against any team), Plesac is 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in just under 16 innings.  After a promising rookie campaign in 2017, Junis has really struggled last year and now in 2019.  He went 9-12 with a 4.37 ERA in 30 starts last year and so far this season, the 26-year-old is 8-11 with a 4.78 ERA in just under 151 innings.  And in five starts vs. Cleveland in 2019, Junis is 1-3 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 29 innings.  Finally, the Royals are 8-25 in the last 33 meetings in Cleveland.  Take the Tribe.   MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Colorado Rockies.  There's no question that Cards' RH Miles Mikolas has taken a big step backwards from his breakout season of a year ago.  For one thing, Mikolas' W/L ledger of 2019 (7-13) is almost the inverse of what he did in 2018 (18-4).  And his ERA is 4.30 compared to the 2.83 stat he posted last year.  But despite his numbers, the Cards know that Mikolas can still contribute to their final month and playoff push, and they will keep putting him out on the mound every five or six days.  Two of his three starts this month have been on the road where Mikolas has had most of his struggles this season.  He's back home for start number 26  and in his last six starts here at Busch Stadium, Mikolas has been brilliant.  Over that span, he has allowed just nine runs (seven earned) in 37 2/3 innings while the Cards are 4-2 in those.  That's an ERA of just 1.67 over that span, which includes Mikolas' only complete game of the season, a 7-0 shutout of the Pirates on July 15.  The Rox are also a poor 17-39 in the last 56 games vs. St. Louis, and 6-21 in their last 27 road games.  Take the Cardinals.  MLB Roadkill Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  The Jaguars come into this game with the worst offense, thus far, in the Preseason.  The Jaguars have only mustered 10 points thru two games, while they have given up 53.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Jacksonville tonight as a small underdog vs. Miami, especially given that the Dolphins are 2-0 ATS.  But consider that, since 1992, NFL teams that have scored less than 14 points in their two previous preseason games have covered the spread 69% of the time (and 80.7% if their opponent wasn't undefeated in the preseason).  And 0-2 teams have covered 70% since 1983 as an underdog (or PK) vs. teams that were undefeated ATS.  Take Jacksonville. NFL Preseason Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Atlanta Falcons are 0-3 SU/ATS this preseason, and come into tonight's game installed as a home underdog vs. Washington, which is 0-2 SU/ATS.  We'll lay the points with the Redskins, as NFL teams (like Atlanta) have been poor in their fourth preseason game, if they were 0-3 SU/ATS in their first three games.  Indeed, since 1993, they've covered just 29.7% of the time, including just 13% ATS if their opponent was off back-to-back losses itself.  Take Washington. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Mets.  When the Indians look back on the 2019 regular season -- especially if they don't win the AL Central -- the game from last night will be one they wish they could have back.  Late Wednesday, the Tribe took a 3-2 lead in the top of the 10th inning and then put normally reliable closer Brad Hand on the mound in the bottom of the inning for what seemed like a sure save.  But Hand gave it up and the Mets walked off in front of their delirious home crowd.  Now Cleveland reloads with rookie RH Aaron Civale set to make his fifth start of the season.  The 24-year-old has made the most of his opportunity to join the Cleveland rotation in the wake of all the pitching injuries the team has endured.  Civale has done little wrong so far, posting a 1.50 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 3.67 K:BB ratio in 24 innings.  The Mets will go with veteran RH Noah Syndergaard in his 25th start of the season.  For whatever reason, most of Syndergaard's struggles have come here at home this season, where he has a 4.23 ERA in 12 starts (vs. 3.49 on the road).  Take Cleveland in an underdog role.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  After two part-time seasons in the Brewers bullpen -- with a two-year gap in between -- RHP Adrian Houser was not on anyone's radar coming into 2019.  But after being more-or-less forced into action as a starter due to their numerous injuries, Houser is now an important part of Milwaukee's team as it prepares for a prolonged fight for the post-season down the stretch.  The 26-year-old is 5-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 27 games -- including 10 starts -- coming into tonight.  His ability to start games as well as fill in when needed in long relief should prove valuable over the final six weeks.  The Cards will go with veteran RHP Adam Wainwright, who is having a so-so season at 9-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 23 starts so far.  The Brewers look to salvage the last game of this three-game series and they are 7-2 in their last nine in the third game of a series after losing each of the first two.  Meanwhile, despite their back-to-back victories over the Crew, the Cards are still just 2-5 in their last seven vs. teams with a winning record.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  If the Nats' management thought that the three relief pitchers they picked up at the trade deadline -- Strickland, Elias, Hudson -- would mean the end of their bullpen woes, then they better think again.  Washington's pen once again ruined a great start -- this time from Stephen Strasburg -- as the Pirates scored four runs in the 8th inning to beat the Nats, 4-1, on Tuesday.  Of course, if the Nats' offense had put up anywhere close to the number of runs they'd been producing lately, then four runs wouldn't have mattered.  In their previous three games, DC plated a total of 43 runs -- a club record -- before falling flat last night.  They'll reload for tonight as LHP Patrick Corbin takes the mound for the 26th time this season -- his first with Washington.  Corbin has been a welcome addition to the rotation, going 9-5 with a 3.34 ERA, including a complete game shutout back on May 25.  In his only other start vs. the Bucs this season, Corbin threw seven innings of one-run, four-hit ball with 11 strikeouts and one walk back on April 12.  Take the Nats.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners.  When Charlie Morton left one of the best teams in baseball -- the Astros -- after the best season of his career and joined the Rays via free agency, there were probably only two people who thought he could improve on 2018:  Morton and his Agent.  But sure enough, 26 starts into the season and Morton is 13-5 (only two wins away from his 2018 total) with a career-best (and league-leading) 2.77 ERA in 156 innings.  Start number 27 will come this afternoon at home against a Mariners team that is almost 20 games under .500 (54-73).  Although his record at Tropicana Field is only .500 (6-6), Morton has a sparkling 2.86 ERA here in 15 starts covering just over 94 innings.  And so far this season, Morton is 6-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 12 starts at his new home.  He also won his only other start against the Mariners this season and he's 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 12 afternoon starts coming into today.  Despite their victory here last night, the M's are just 8-26 in their last 34 road games vs. teams with a winning home record.  Lay the big price with Tampa.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  There was little the Brewers' bats could do against the Cards' pitching Monday night as three St. Louis hurlers combined on a one-hitter in a 3-0 shutout.  This is a huge series for both teams, but it's the Brew Crew who are feeling the pressure, now three games behind in the three-way NL Central race.  Milwaukee will send LHP Gio Gonzalez to the mound for the 12th time this season.  It is hoping that the veteran southpaw can recreate the magic he displayed after he came to the Brewers at the end of last August.  In his five 2018 starts after the trade from the Nationals, Gonzalez went 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in just over 25 innings.  Re-signed as a free agent after being released by the Yankees at the end of April, Gonzalez has been solid so far with a 2-1 record and 3.81 ERA in his 11 starts.  His only other start against the Cards as a member of the Brewers -- last September -- resulted in a lopsided 12-4 Milwaukee victory.  The Brew Crew is 7-1 in Gio's last eight starts vs. winning teams and 4-1 in his last five on the road.  Take Milwaukee.  MLB Road Warrior of the Month!   As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the San Francisco 49ers.  The 49ers opened their preseason last weekend with a 17-9 victory over the Dallas Cowboys, while Denver was upset, 22-14, as a 2-point favorite at Seattle.  Unfortunately for San Francisco, since 1983, teams that opened the Preseason with a win have gone 0-8-1 ATS in their next game if they played on Monday Night Football away from home, and were matched up against an opponent off a straight-up loss.  Meanwhile, the Broncos are a stupendous 12-0 SU/ATS in the Preseason off an upset loss since 2002 (and 19-2-1 ATS since 1983).  Lay the points with Denver.  NFL Preseason Monday Night Football Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwakee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  After scoring just one run in on Friday night in DC, the Brewers exploded and plated 23 in the final two games of the series.  They come into this critical series in St. Louis hoping they can continue their production at the plate.  Two young righthanders with very similar numbers will face each other tonight in this NL Central Match-up.  The Home team sends Dakota Hudson and his 11-6 record and 3.85 ERA to the mound while the Crew comes in with Zach Davies who is 8-5 with a 3.74 ERA in his 23 starts.  In four previous career starts here, Davies has no record, but he has a solid 3.68 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just four walks in 22 innings.  On the other side, Hudson has five appearances against the Brewers -- including two starts -- and he is 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA in just over 11 innings.  The Brewers are 19-13 (+14 games on the money line (+43.75% ROI)) as a road underdog with Davies starting in his career.  Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 4 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  This is a rematch of last year's Preseason contest which was won, in convincing fashion, 36-7, by New Orleans.  We used the Saints in last year's game as our #1 Play of last year's Preseason, and we will take the Saints once again.  It's true that the Saints opened the Preseason with a 34-25 home loss to the Vikings.  But the Vikings have put an emphasis on Week 1 Preseason games under coach Mike Zimmer, as they're 6-0 SU/ATS since he became head coach, so there's no great shame in losing last week to Minnesota.  The Chargers, in contrast, have not fared well in the Preseason under coach Anthony Lynn, as they're 3-6 SU/ATS, including a 17-13 defeat at Arizona last week.  Since 1985, road underdogs have cashed 61% off a loss in which they gave up more than 31 points.  That bodes well for New Orleans.  As does the fact that the Saints are a fantastic 44-20-2 ATS on the road in the Preseason.  Take New Orleans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees.  LHP CC Sabathia has been nursing a sore knee since the end of July, which was his third trip to the IL this season.  The Yankees' rotation depth -- or lack thereof -- means that Sabathia is still a regular member of the starting five when he's healthy, despite a very sub-par campaign so far (5-6 with a 4.78 ERA).  The 39-year-old will get his 18th start of the season this afternoon and it will be against an Indians lineup that's capable of putting up a ton of runs (e.g., 19 in the case of Thursday's game).  The Tribe will turn to one of its most reliable starters of late as RHP Mike Clevinger goes to the hill for his 13th start.  Like Sabathia, Clevinger has spent some considerable time on the IL this season.  But unlike him, he has been on fire since returning the last time on June 28.  Particularly impressive is what Clevinger has done in his four road starts since coming back, allowing six earned runs on 20 hits in 27 innings (a 2.00 ERA).  Clevinger's only other start at Yankee Stadium was also a good one -- two runs on one hit in 7 1/3 innings last May.  Take the Tribe.  MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the San Diego Padres.  It doesn't get more dramatic than what took place here at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday night.  Down by five runs entering the bottom of the ninth, the Phillies came back with six runs -- highlighted by a Bryce Harper walk-off grand slam -- to beat the Cubs.  Perhaps that will help motivate this team which, despite being five games over .500, still seems to be struggling to find its groove.  The Phillies picked up a veteran LHP in Jason Vargas from the Mets at the trade deadline and, although he's given them some quality innings in his three starts since coming over, the 36-year-old is still looking for his first win in a Phillies uniform.  That could come today against a mostly over-matched Padres club which is starting to look towards next season at this point.  Vargas has a winning record vs. San Diego, going 3-2 with a 4.00 ERA in six career starts vs. the Padres.  In fact, the last one came just two starts before he was shipped off from the Mets, as Vargas threw six one-hit, shutout innings on July 23 in a 5-2 NYM win over SD.  Take the Phillies.  MLB High Roller Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Kansas City Royals.  Jacob deGrom will toe the rubber for the Mets tonight, and he's been as consistent as any pitcher in the game.  Over his last 15 starts, he's given up 2 earned runs or less in 14 of those 15 games.  For the season, his ERA is 2.68, with a WHIP of 1.06.  And it's 1.42 and 0.94 over his last 3 outings.  Jake Junis will get the ball for the Royals and, unlike deGrom, his ERA is approaching five runs a game (4.80), and is north of five runs a game at home (5.64).  The Royals have been at their worst as a big underdog, as they're 23-65 (minus 20 games on the money line), when priced from +175 to +250.  Take the Mets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns won their Preseason home opener last week in blowout fashion, 30-10, over Washington.  Meanwhile, the Colts were upset on the road, 24-16, by the Buffalo Bills.  But I love Indianapolis to bounce back at home on this Saturday.  Indeed, teams have covered 70% since 1983 in their Preseason home openers off an upset loss, if they're matched up against an opponent off a SU/ATS win in their home opener.   Additionally, the Browns are a horrid 1-8 ATS in the Preseason off a double-digit win, while the Colts are 7-2-1 ATS vs. foes off a 20+ point victory.  Take Indianapolis.  NFL Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  It's LHP Steven Brault's fourth season in the Majors -- all of those with the Pirates.  In his rookie campaign, Brault made most of his appearances as a starter, but after that, he switched to the bullpen.  Now the 27-year-old southpaw is back in the rotation, having made 11 of his 17 appearances as a starter this season.  His ERA may be the best that it's been since he came into the league, but at 4.33, Brault is still a work in progress for Pittsburgh.  The biggest problem for Brault has been his walk rate, as the former 11th round draft pick of the Orioles has issued 36 free passes in 70 2/3 innings (a 4.6 walk rate).  Veteran LHP Jon Lester will go for the Cubs and although Lester's numbers are not what they've been the past several seasons, the 35-year-old southpaw is still dangerous.  And it doesn't hurt his chances that Lester is 10-6 with a 3.18 ERA in 20 career starts vs. the Bucs.  The Pirates are also just 2-10 in their last 12 home games.  Take Chicago.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees.  This is a great pitching match-up today in the Bronx.  James Paxton will start for the Yankees, and he's won his last three starts (2.89 ERA; 0.96 WHIP).  But, not to be outdone, Cleveland starter Zach Plesac is 3-0 in his last seven starts, and the Indians have won all seven of those games (3.11 ERA).  It's true that Plesac has been installed as an underdog this afternoon, but the Indians have gone 4-1 in his five underdog starts this season.  Meanwhile, Paxton has burned money as a favorite this season (and also in his career).  And as a home favorite of -150 (or more), his teams have gone 17-18 (minus 18 games on the money line).  The Indians are 25-14 vs. lefties, 9-4 their last 13 as underdogs, and 44-20 their last 64 overall.  Take the Indians.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics.  In one of the biggest upsets ever (and the biggest upset on record over the last 15 years), the Astros lost to the Orioles five days ago with their ace, Justin Verlander, on the mound as a -475 favorite (some books had Houston favored by -525).  If that won't motivate you to come back in your next start, then nothing will.  Verlander goes to the hill tonight in Oakland, and he loves pitching there, as he is 8-4 with a 2.65 ERA in 13 starts covering just over 88 innings at the Coliseum.  And the other thing about the future Hall of Fame pitcher is the fact that Verlander gets stronger as the season progresses.  The 36-year-old is 100-55 (.645) with a 3.25 ERA in 193 starts after the break compared with 119-72 (.623) with a 3.44 ERA in 251 starts before.  The A's rank 13th in the American League in hitting vs. right-handers, batting just .239 vs. them this season.  And they're 16-40 in the last 56 meetings with Astros overall, and 7-21 in the last 28 meetings in Oakland.  Take Houston.  MLB Road Warrior Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Francisco Giants.  These two teams -- neither of which will make the post-season barring a miracle -- have identical records after 122 games (61-61).  The Giants got the bragging rights on Thursday, shutting out the D-Backs by a lopsided 7-0 score.  Tonight it will be veteran RHP Jeff Samardzija going for the Giants in his 25th start of the season.  The D-Backs will counter with veteran RHP Mike Leake.  Leake was acquired by Arizona at the trade deadline from Seattle and, although he's struggled in his first two Diamondbacks starts, he has plenty of time to turn it around to post some solid numbers with his new club.  The 31-year-old has faced the Giants 11 times in his career (10 starts) -- mostly from his time in Cincinnati.  And although the ERA is a bit high at 4.62, he has a 5-2 record against them in just over 64 innings.  The Giants are 2-7 in their last nine games following a win, and Samardzija's teams are a horrid 33-59 behind him when he's worked on an extra day or two of rest, as well as 16-28 after he allowed two earned runs or less in each of his two previous starts.  Take Arizona. 

At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Chicago Bears over the New York Giants.  The Giants opened their Preseason with a nice 31-22 home win over their cross-town rivals, the Jets.  The Giants will now welcome the Bears into the Meadowlands.  And Chicago should be in an ornery mood after losing its home opener, 23-13, to Carolina.  We will fade the Giants, as they've covered just 17 of their last 54 as a Preseason favorite/PK, including 0 of 7 since 2016.  Moreover, NFL teams have cashed just 39% in the Preseason as a home favorite off a win in their home opener, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU loss.  Take the Bears.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Last night, the Cubs lost a game that they led 5-0 after 7 innings.  Unfortunately, they gave up 1 in the eighth, and six in the ninth -- capped by a Bryce Harper grand slam -- to fall to the Phillies, 7-5.  That dropped Chicago's record to 64-57 on the season, and it is now in a virtual tie with the Cardinals for the NL Central division lead (with Milwaukee just one game behind).  The Cubs will attempt to bounce back tonight when they visit the cellar-dwelling Pirates.  The Buccos are an awful 2-9 their last 11, and 6-25 their last 31.  Yikes!  It's true that Kyle Hendricks had his worst start in over a year his last time out (vs. Cincinnati).  But before that shellacking, he had been on a great streak where he gave up 2 runs or less over seven straight games (2.34 ERA; 0.96 WHIP).  I view his last outing more as an anomaly than anything else, and I love Hendricks to rebound tonight.  Take the Cubs.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  In what could very well be a preview of the NLCS, the Dodgers visit Atlanta for the first time since last October when the Dodgers eliminated the Braves in the first round of the playoffs.  Braves RHP Mike Soroka gets his 22nd start of the season tonight and it will also be his first at home in almost a month (July 20), as his last four were each on the road.  With all the stars on this team, you could argue that -- at least on the pitching side -- Soroka has been the Braves' MVP as he is 10-2 with a sparkling 2.32 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 128 innings.  RHP Kenta Maeda will go for the Dodgers and, although the Japanese veteran has an 8-8 record and 4.12 ERA on the season, he has a 6.59 ERA over his last three starts covering just 13 2/3 innings.  This also has been a very home-friendly series lately as the hosts have won seven out of the last eight meetings coming into tonight.  Finally, the Dodgers are 3-8 in Maeda's last 11 road starts.  Take the Braves.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Last night, the Cubs lost a game that they led 5-0 after 7 innings.  Unfortunately, they gave up 1 in the eighth, and six in the ninth -- capped by a Bryce Harper grand slam -- to fall to the Phillies, 7-5.  That dropped Chicago's record to 64-57 on the season, and it is now in a virtual tie with the Cardinals for the NL Central division lead (with Milwaukee just one game behind).  The Cubs will attempt to bounce back tonight when they visit the cellar-dwelling Pirates.  The Buccos are an awful 2-9 their last 11, and 6-25 their last 31.  Yikes!  It's true that Kyle Hendricks had his worst start in over a year his last time out (vs. Cincinnati).  But before that shellacking, he had been on a great streak where he gave up 2 runs or less over seven straight games (2.34 ERA; 0.96 WHIP).  I view his last outing more as an anomaly than anything else, and I love Hendricks to rebound tonight.  Take the Cubs.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves.  The Mets were five games under .500 (50-55) and 11 games out of first place on July 28 when they acquired RHP Marcus Stroman from Toronto.  So naturally, that move -- when many thought the Mets would be sellers and not buyers -- raised a lot of eyebrows.  But there appeared to be a method to the madness as New York has gone 12-4 since then and is now only a 1/2 game out of the NL Wild Card.  Stroman gets his 24th start of the season (third with the Mets) tonight and although it hasn't been pretty so far with his new team, Stroman's ERA is still solid and he boasts one of the lowest HR rates of any pitcher in the league right now.  RHP Julio Teheran goes for the Braves and he's struggled recently against the Mets.  In his last two starts against them (both this season), Teheran is 0-1 and has allowed eight earned runs on 13 hits in 7 1/3 innings.  In contrast, Stroman has two previous starts vs. Atlanta and he is 2-0 with an outrageous 0.71 ERA in just under 13 innings.  Finally, the Mets are 6-1 in their last seven road games vs. LH starters.  Take New York.  MLB Underdog of the Month.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Philadelphia Phillies.  It's been a topsy-turvy season for Cubs RHP Yu Darvish.  The 32-year-old came out of a gate with three consecutive months of an ERA right around five runs and he posted just two wins in his first 17 starts.  But then Darvish started to settle down, winning just as many games (2) in his next seven starts, while lowering his ERA more than 1/2 run to 4.43. And his WHIP this season is a very strong 1.18.  Darvish's only other start as a Cub against the Phillies was earlier this season when he registered a quality start on May 20, allowing three runs on four hits in six innings.  Even better:  for his career, his ERA vs. Philadelphia is 1.96, with a 0.98 WHIP.  The Phillies picked up southpaw pitcher Drew Smyly as free agent back on July 21.  Smyly has a 3.83 ERA in four starts since joining the Phillies, which is not bad considering he sports an ugly 1-5 record along with an 8.43 ERA in 13 games (nine starts) overall in 2019.  Still, we will go against Smyly tonight, and fade Philly off its blowout win last night, as the Phillies are 1-5 in their last six games following a victory.  And they're a wallet-busting 8-28 this year vs. pitchers with a WHIP of 1.25 or better.  Take the Cubbies.  MLB High Roller Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Philadelphia Phillies.  Tonight will be LHP Cole Hamels' first start in Philly since he left there mid-way through the 2015 season.  Hamels didn't visit Citizens Bank Park during his years with Texas, and he hasn't been there as a member of the Cubs either (until tonight).  After a losing campaign in 2018 (9-12 with a 3.78 ERA in 32 starts), Hamels has rebounded nicely this season.  Through his first 19 starts, the 35-year-old is 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in just under 108 innings.  If Hamels was the old guard when he left the Phillies, RHP Aaron Nola is the new.  Nola definitely has the stuff to be an ace, but he's struggled in his career against the Cubs.  In four starts against Chicago covering 24 2/3 innings, Nola has an ugly 5.11 ERA.  And in his only home start against them (last September), he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings in an 8-1 blowout loss.  Chicago is 13-5 in Hamels' last 18 starts and 9-2 in his last 11 vs. teams with a winning record.  Take the Cubs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Minnesota Twins.  The Brewers collapsed in the 8th inning last night when Josh Hader gave up a 2-out, 3-run Home Run to Marwin Gonzalez, and fell, 7-5, to the Twins.  This afternoon affair will pit Twins RHP Kyle Gibson against Milwaukee southpaw Gio Gonzalez.  We will go against Minnesota, as Gibson has struggled vs. Milwaukee.  He's made five starts, with his teams winning just once, and his ERA in those games was 5.70.  Even worse:  the Twins have been under water this season vs. lefty starters, as they're 14-13 (minus 2.4 games on the money line), compared to 58-34 (+17.4 games on the money line) vs. righties.  And they're 7-9 (minus 2.4 games on the money line) vs. the National League (compared to 65-38, +17.4 games on the money line vs. the American League).  Gio Gonzalez has been strong this season for Milwaukee, as his ERA is 3.20, with a 1.16 WHIP.  And in his last three starts, his ERA is 2.29 and his WHIP is 0.95.  The Brewers are 98-55 (+19 games on the money line) as a home favorite.  Take Milwaukee.  Interleague Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over Colorado.  The Rockies won yesterday, but the wins have been few and far between for them since the end of June, and they currently sit in last place in the NL West Division.  They're 9-26 their last 35 games (since June 30) and are also 2-11 off a win (since June 21).  Of course, when you keep trotting Peter Lambert out to the mound every five days, it's not surprising that your team isn't winning.  The Rockies are 1-8 in his last nine starts.  And he's given up 40 runs, and put on 77 baserunners in 43 innings over this stretch (8.37 ERA; 1.79 WHIP).  Tonight, Lambert will face Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks, and have been installed as a small favorite, as of this writing.  That bodes well for the D-Backs, who are an awesome 79-56 as an underdog priced from +100 to +150 (+41 games on the money line).  And Arizona's also 23-16 (+11 games on the money line) in nighttime road games.  The Diamondbacks are now 3 games out of the playoff picture, with 44 games remaining, so they know they have to take advantage of these games vs. cellar-dwelling teams.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Cleveland Indians.  If the Red Sox can somehow make the playoffs and they award a team MVP for the season, they just might want to consider giving it to LHP Eduardo Rodriguez.  Sure, the ERA is a little high at 4.17 and the walk rate is up while the strikeout rate is down from last season.  But all E-Rod knows how to do, it seems, is win.  He will almost certainly break his personal mark for victories in a season (13) as he sits with a 13-5 record coming into tonight's critical game in Cleveland.  And although he's only faced them twice in his career, Rodriguez doesn't seem to mind pitching against the Indians.  In those two prior starts, E-Rod is 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in just under 14 innings.  Rookie Zach Plesac gets his 14th start for the Tribe.  He's pitched well this season, but six of his last eight starts have come against the Orioles, Tigers (twice), and Royals (three), so it's a step-up in class tonight.  The Sox are 4-1 in their last five games vs. AL Central teams.  And they are 6-0 in Rodriguez's last six vs. the Central, and 15-3 in his last 18 nighttime starts.  Take Boston.  MLB Road Warrior Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Yesterday, we had a big play on the Dodgers with Kenta Maeda vs. Alex Young but today we're going to switch gears, and play on the huge road underdog.  Despite the fact that L.A. is 10-0 in Ryu's home starts this season, we're going with Arizona and newly-acquired RHP Mike Leake.  Leake has always been a durable starter, which is a big reason why he's always been a much-sought-after trade target, it seems, every year.  Indeed, since 2012, Leake has started at least 30 games every season, and he's once again headed to that number again in 2019.  Leake's first start for the D-Backs on August 6 (against the Phillies) was pretty good.  Arizona won the game and, in fact, Leake's teams have now won each of his last four starts.  Meanwhile, Ryu comes into today's game off a stint on the Injured List because of a sore neck.  He also landed on the Injured List back in April for a groin injury.  Unfortunately, Ryu's first start upon his return from that injury was a 5-0 setback on April 20 to the Brewers.  I'm generally not a fan of playing on pitchers (especially big favorites) in their initial start after being injured.  And I love Arizona as a big underdog today.  Take the D-Backs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds.  The Reds have been a bit of a thorn in the side of the Cubs lately, taking five of the last nine meetings including a 5-2 victory on Saturday.  Chicago will try to get some revenge this afternoon, sending LH Jon Lester to the mound for his 23rd start of the season.  Lester led the league with 18 victories in 2018.  And although he won't reach that number this season, he is still a valuable member of the Cubs' rotation with a 9-8 record and 4.39 ERA coming into this afternoon's start.  Lester has a 3.53 ERA in eight career starts at Great America Park, and this season he has really benefited from daytime outings.  In 13 starts under the lights, Lester is 5-5 with a 5.13 ERA.  However in nine afternoon starts, he is 4-3 with a 3.28 ERA in just under 50 innings.  And Lester has also had quality starts in three of his last four outings vs. the Reds, while the Cubs are 4-1 in his last five vs. Cincy.  And his teams have won 14 of 17 vs. the Reds in his career.  Take the Cubs.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays.  Yankees RHP Masahiro Tanaka was cruising along with a very good season until a start against the Red Sox in London on June 29.  That turned out to be the veteran Japanese pitcher's shortest (and worst) start of the season and Tanaka's campaign since then has been a real struggle.  But if there's anything that could possibly turn Tanaka's second half around, it is likely a start against the Blue Jays.  In 19 career starts vs. Toronto, Tanaka is 12-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in just under 116 innings.  Those 12 victories represent the most that Tanaka has logged against any MLB club.  And the Yankees are 4-1 in Tanaka's last five starts vs. the Jays going back to September of 2017.  Despite his recent struggles, the Yanks are still 14-9 in Tanaka's starts this season and 9-1 in his last 10 trips to the hill.  New York is also 18-6 in Tanaka's last 24 road starts vs. teams with a losing record.  Take the Yankees.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona.  Los Angeles lost a heartbreaker in extra innings last night.  It looked like L.A. was going to take Game 1 of this series, as it had a 2-0 lead going into the 9th inning.  But Arizona's Carson Kelly tied the game up with a 2-run HR off Kenley Jansen, and then he finished the job in the 11th inning with a solo shot off Julio Urias.  I love L.A to bounce back, as the Dodgers have been spectacular at home this season, with a 46-16 record (+18 games on the money line).  And Kenta Maeda has also been at his best in Chavez Ravine, as he's 5-3 in 10 home starts, with a 3.22 ERA and a sparkling 0.92 WHIP!  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Indians.  Jake Odorizzi is having a breakout campaign in his second season with the Twins.  The 29-year-old RH is 12-5 with a 3.61 ERA in 22 starts so far.  And those 12 victories represent a career high.  His attempt for win number 13 is perhaps his most important start of the season so far.  That's because the Indians -- who were once far behind the Twins -- are now tied with them in the race for the AL Central Division title.  In two previous starts vs. Cleveland this season, Odorizzi has only allowed two earned runs on four hits in 11 1/3 innings (a 1.59 ERA).  And Minnesota is 15-4 in Odorizzi's last 19 starts overall, 8-2 in his last 10 at home, 5-1 in his last six vs. AL Central opponents, and 5-0 in his last five following a quality start in his last outing.  The Tribe had oft-injured starter Danny Salazar back -- finally -- but his return lasted only one start, and now Salazar is back on the IL with a groin injury.  Enter -- once again -- RHP Adam Plutko.  The Indians' soft-tosser has just 36 strikeouts in 59 1/3 innings and that could spell real trouble against the home run-happy Minnesota lineup.  The Twins lead the Majors with 224 round trippers.  With the Twins having lost four straight (the last two to tonight's opponent) and finally having the Tribe catch up to them, I expect Minnesota to rise to the occasion tonight.  Take Minnesota.  AL Central Game of the Year!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds.  Cubs veteran RHP Kyle Hendricks' overall numbers this season may only seem merely "good" (8-8 with a 3.06 ERA in 21 starts), but over his last three starts, Hendricks has been outstanding.  The 29-year-old is 1-0 (the Cubs are 2-1) with a 0.98 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over those last three outings covering 18 1/3 innings.  Start number 22 will come tonight against a team which Hendricks has dominated in his career.  In 16 starts vs. the Reds, Hendricks is 6-2 with a very solid 3.29 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.  The Cubs are also 15-5 in Hendricks' last 20 starts following a quality start in his last outing.  Take Chicago.  MLB Road Warrior Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the New York Mets.   After sweeping the Giants in San Francisco, the Nats came into Queens last night and fell flat in the first game of this series against the Mets.  But that's somewhat to be expected after a grueling six-game west coast road trip.  Look for the visitors to be better prepared and rested tonight as LHP Patrick Corbin takes the mound for his 24th start of the season.  Corbin signed a huge six-year free agent contract with the Nationals in the off-season and, so far at least, the 30-year-old has not disappointed.  Corbin is 9-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 23 starts in his first year in DC and that's not bad considering he is a #3 starter behind aces Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.  Corbin has also done well against the Nats' division opponents, as Washington is 6-1 in his last seven starts vs. the NL East.  The Mets will go with RHP Noah Syndergaard and they are a poor 1-4 in his last five home starts vs. Washington.  Finally, the Nationals are 54-26 in the last 80 meetings in New York.  Take Washington.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over Milwaukee.  In this interleague match-up between the Rangers and Brewers, we'll take the road team, and go against Milwaukee's Adrian Houser.  The Brewers have lost six of his eight starts this season (he's 0-5 in those eight games), and Houser has a 6.82 ERA in those eight games.  Yikes!  Even worse:  the Brewers are a wallet-busting 5-9 (minus 7 games on the money line) this season in interleague games, while the Rangers are 31-27 (plus 9 games on the money line) their last 58 interleague contests.  Take Texas.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners.  Known for their use of "openers" -- a strategy which started last season -- the Rays have to reach even deeper into their bag of pitching tricks with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow on the DL.  Enter LHP Jalen Beeks.  Beeks is a middle reliever who only had one previous start this season -- an ugly effort that lasted 3 2/3 innings back on July 22.  But that was against the Red Sox and since Beeks has been quite effective out of the bullpen for the Rays, they're going to give him another shot tonight in a much softer spot against the 48-68 Mariners, in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.  Beeks is 5-1 with a 3.77 ERA so it would seem he's earned this chance at another start.  Seattle LHP Marco Gonzales has had his second straight successful season as a full-time starter, going 12-9 with a 4.32 ERA in 24 starts so far.  But his ERA here at home is almost a full run higher (4.76) than it is on the road (3.88).  And the Mariners are 1-5 in their last six games overall, and 1-5 in Gonzales' last six vs. teams from the American League East.  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Chris Archer joined the Pirates in the second half of last season in a trade which sent Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows to Tampa Bay.  The veteran RH had all kinds of promise with the Rays, but could just never harness it and reach the potential that so many thought he had.  So he became the Pirates' latest reclamation project.  The Bucs have a way of taking veteran starters and turning them around (think Edinson Volquez, Ivan Nova, Francisco Liriano, AJ Burnett).  But for whatever reason, it hasn't happened with Archer.  After an okay 2018 stint (3-3; 4.30 ERA in 10 starts), Archer has regressed significantly this season and is just 3-8 with a 5.35 ERA in 20 starts.  And although his numbers are not bad at home this season (3-4; 3.98), they absolutely stink on the road, where he's yet to win a game (0-4; 7.14 in nine starts).  The Cards will go with RHP Dakota Hudson who, although he has the same record as Archer (3-8), has a very nice 3.98 ERA in his 22 starts.  Finally, Pittsburgh is a wallet-busting 8-20 in the last 28 meetings with St. Louis.  Take the Cards.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Miami Marlins.  There is no bigger enigma among MLB starters than the Braves' RHP Julio Teheran.  Teheran hasn't had a winning season since 2015 (four seasons ago) and yet he is four games over .500 (73-69) for his career.  And in the seasons in which he's had the fewest wins (2016 and this season so far), Teheran puts up his best ERAs of the past five years (3.21 in 2016 and 3.46 this season).  He rarely strings back-to-back victories together (last time was June 8 & 13), although the Braves have won four of his starts in a row on two separate occasions this season.  But one thing that he has been consistently good at throughout his career is pitching in Miami.  In 12 starts here, Teheran is 6-4 with a 3.22 ERA in just under 73 innings.  And after a 1-0 blanking over them on July 5, the Braves have now won each of Teheran's last four starts vs. the Fish going back to July of last season.  Atlanta is also 37-16 in the last 53 meetings with Miami while the Marlins are 1-5 in LHP Caleb Smith's last six starts vs. winning teams.  Take the Braves.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Miami.  The Falcons were winning last Thursday for much of the 2nd half, but lost, 14-10, in the waning moments on a deflected 15-yard touchdown pass.  The silver lining for Atlanta was that it out-yarded Denver, 261-188.  And I love the Falcons to bounce back as a road underdog in this week's game, at Miami.  The Falcons have a big advantage just by playing in last week's Hall of Fame Game.  Indeed, since 1983, underdogs off a preseason loss have covered 68% vs. foes playing their first preseason game.  Take the Falcons.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Los Angeles Angels.  Chris Sale's prayers have apparently been answered.  After his last three starts came against the Rays and Yankees (last two), Sale gets a reprieve with a home outing against the team that he's perhaps dominated more than any other in his career.  In nine appearances -- including seven starts -- against the Halos, Sale is 6-0 with a sparkling 1.23 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in just over 51 innings.  This will be Sale's first start of the season against the Angels, and no doubt with the type of season he's had to this point, he is very much looking forward to it.  The Angels are winless in their last six overall, 0-5 in their last five road games, 0-6 in their last six vs. the Sox, and 3-8 in the last 11 meetings with them in Fenway.  Despite their recent struggles, the Red Sox are a super 42-17 in their last 59 home games vs. teams with a losing record, and 80-22 (+26 games on the money line) when favored by -200+.  Meanwhile, the Angels are an awful 52-88 (minus 29 games on the money line) vs. winning foes.  Take Boston.  Mound Mismatch Massacre!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Perhaps the bad news for Phillies fans at the trade deadline -- although this remains to be seen -- is that the only starters they picked up were Drew Smyly and Jason Vargas.  The good news is that they really didn't give up anything to get these two veteran southpaws.  So it was a pair of low-risk moves for them which keeps their deep minor league pipeline intact.  It will be Vargas getting his 20th start of the season tonight.  His first Phillies start was very good -- a 6 1/3 inning quality outing in which he allowed just two runs on five hits with five strikeouts and one walk against the White Sox last Friday.  Vargas is a work-horse who should give the Phils plenty of innings the rest of the way as they try to reach the post-season for the first time in almost a decade (2011).  Despite the loss last night, the Phillies are still 5-2 in their last seven road games vs. teams with losing records.  Take Philadelphia.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Kansas City Royals.  With a 13-5 ledger, Red Sox southpaw starter Eduardo Rodriguez has the exact same record he posted in 2018.  The difference of course is that E-Rod has probably seven more starts left this season.  Number 24 will come tonight against the Royals in Fenway where he's 6-1 with a 3.92 ERA in 11 starts this season.  The biggest thing going for Rodriguez tonight is the fact that he's pitching against the Royals.  KC is the worst hitting team vs. left-handers in the American League this season.  Let's take a look at some of the Royals' numbers:  .235 BA, .297 OBP, and .677 OPS vs. southpaws in 2019.  Moreover, the Royals are just 2-8 in the last 10 meetings with the Sox while Boston is 24-3 in Rodriguez's last 27 starts vs. teams with a losing record.  The Sox are also 11-1 in Rodriguez's last 12 starts vs. teams from the American League Central.  Take the Red Sox.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Atlanta Braves.  Two lefty starters -- one a veteran and one a youngster -- will go to the mound opposite each other this afternoon in the final game of this interleague series, which just happens to be all knotted up at a game apiece.  The veteran will go for the home team as Martin Perez gets his 20th start of the season for Minnesota.  Perez's ERA has been a bit high (4.58), but you can't argue with his 8-4 record so far.  Obviously, he's been the beneficiary of the extraordinary offense that his team has produced this season.  Perez has pitched better throughout his career in the afternoon (19-18; 4.38) than he has under the lights (32-35; 4.74).  And he's enjoyed his new home park (4-2; 4.35 in 12 games) more than he's liked being on the road this season (4-2; 4.91).  Despite their road win on Tuesday night, the Braves are just 5-9 in their last 14 interleague games, while the Twins are 5-2 in their last seven interleague home games vs. teams with a winning record.  And the Twins are also 25-11 this season when favored by -150 or less.  Take Minnesota.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  When Miles Mikolas went 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA in 32 starts last season -- his first in the Majors since 2014 -- he took everyone except perhaps himself by surprise.  After a season like that -- Mikolas finished sixth in the NL Cy Young voting -- it is certainly not surprising for the 30-year-old RH to have a regression in 2019.  But after monthly ERAs of 5.29 (April), 3.57 (May), and 4.15 (June), Mikolas had his best month in five July starts, posting a 2.93 ERA in 30 2/3 innings.  He will try to keep it going in August as Mikolas gets his first start of the season at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium tonight against the best team in the NL.  The good news for him and the Cards tonight is that St. Louis is 6-1 in Mikolas' last seven starts vs. NL West teams, 13-3 in his last 16 starts following a team loss in their previous game, and 12-4 in his last 16 starts vs. teams with a winning record.  Take the Cards.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Chicago Cubs. Monday's Game 1 of this series featured a little bit of everything, including a home run by Oakland's Nick Martini with a big group of family watching from the bleachers (Martini is from nearby Crystal Lake, IL).  And with Craig Kimbrel placed on the IL, the Cubs experimented with a slew of options in the late innings before David Phelps finally got the last out to preserve a one-run victory.  Tonight will feature a pair of veteran southpaws as Jon Lester gets the start for the home team while Brett Anderson goes for the A's.  That bodes well for Oakland, as it's 19-7 vs. lefty starters this season.  It's true that Anderson posted 11 wins in his rookie season as a 21-year-old in 2009 and hasn't matched that total since.  However, he's 9-7 with a 4.04 ERA in 22 starts this season, and will likely best those 11 victories from a decade ago.   The good news for tonight is that, although he pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly home parks, Anderson has done by far his work this season on the road.  In 11 starts away from Oakland, Anderson is 5-2 with a 3.49 ERA (vs. 4-5 and 4.65 in 11 at home).  And his road success leads us to this stat:  The A's are a perfect 6-0 this season as a road underdog with him on the mound.  Take the A's.  MLB Road Warrior Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the San Francisco Giants.  With their ace Max Scherzer still on the shelf with a strained back muscle, RHP Erick Fedde will get another start for the Nats tonight -- his 10th of the season.  It's somewhat lost in his 1-2 record and 4.67 ERA that Fedde was a 1st round draft pick of the Nats back in 2014 out of UNLV.  Every start is critical for the team right now, as DC tied with the Phillies -- seven games behind the Division-leading Braves.  The Giants will go with RH Jeff Samardzija.  And although the veteran has had a resurgence this season after back-to-back disappointing campaigns, the Giants are just 6-16 in Samardzija's last 22 starts vs. teams with a winning record.  Take the Nationals.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  The last time we saw Phillies RH pitcher Vince Velasquez, he was playing right field in the 15-inning game against the White Sox on Friday night.  And not only was he playing the outfield, but Velasquez was starring out there, throwing out Jose Abreu at the plate and then almost repeating the feat an inning later (and also making a diving catch just for good measure).  But despite his heroics, the 27-year-old is back where he belongs tonight -- on the mound.  Velasquez will get his 14th start of the season tonight and it will come against the D-Backs as the Phils embark on a week-long west-coast road trip.  Velasquez's career numbers vs. Arizona are solid (3.93 ERA), and the Phillies are 10-3 in his last 13 starts on grass, and 7-1 in their last eight games following a loss.  Take Philadelphia.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Minnesota Twins.  In what is a possible World Series Preview, the Braves come into Minneapolis for the first time since 2016 for a three-game, inter-league series with the Twins.  Game 1 will feature two of these teams' best RH starters this season as the Braves' Mike Soroka (10 victories; 2.37 ERA) will face Minny's Jake Odorizzi (12 wins; 3.73 ERA).  But as good as the Twins have been lately (this season and last), they've struggled in inter-league situations against really good teams.  In fact, they are 6-13 in their last 19 interleague games vs. teams with a winning record.  But there's one main reason to like the Braves tonight.  Soroka is 2019's best road starter and it's not even close.  In 11 starts away from Atlanta, the 22-year-old is 6-0 with a 1.20 ERA in just under 68 innings.  That 1.20 ERA is the best road number in the Majors -- better than Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom, or Ryu.  Not surprisingly, the Braves are 18-4 in Soroka's last 22 starts and 12-2 in his last 14 on the road.  Take Atlanta.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees.  Most teams have maybe a single veteran southpaw that's capable of winning 15 games in their rotation -- if they're lucky.  The Red Sox have three in Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, and David Price.  The problem is that the one who figured to be the ace (Sale) is having a horrible season, and the other two are just "okay" so far.  Although their ERAs are a bit high, the good news for both E-Rod and Price is that they have solid winning records (a combined 20-9).  It will be Price this evening in this National TV game getting his 21st start of the season for the Sox.  Price is 7-3 with a 3.86 ERA and a career-best 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings.  And, combined with his 2.5 walk rate, this results in a solid 4.24 K:BB ratio.  His only other start of 2019 here in Yankee Stadium was a good one as Price went 6 1/3 innings, allowing just two runs on six hits with six strikeouts and one walk in an 8-5 BoSox victory.  The Red Sox are a solid 16-7 in Price's last 23 starts vs. AL East teams.  And in his career, his teams are 105-49 (+37 games on the money line) vs. division rivals.  Take Boston.  TV Game of the Week.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Oakland Athletics.  Few people noticed when the A's pulled off a minor trade at the deadline, acquiring RHP Tanner Roark from the Reds in exchange for a non-descript minor league player (with some cash going Oakland's way to offset Roark's $10M salary).  It's somewhat ironic that Roark's first start for his new team is against one of his former division rivals in the Cardinals.  The Cards will have the added advantage today of a designated hitter as the game is being played in the Coliseum.  Roark is essentially putting up the same type of mediocre numbers that he has for the past two seasons, going 6-7 with a 4.24 ERA in 21 starts.  The Cards will go with veteran RHP Adam Wainwright.  The 37-year-old's numbers are eerily similar to those of Roark (7-7 with a 4.47 ERA in 20 starts).  However, Wainwright has been very successful in inter-league starts in his career, going 14-10 with a 3.73 ERA in 37 games (31 starts) vs. AL clubs.  Moreover, the Cards are 5-0 in Wainwright's last five starts, 74-38 in his daytime starts (+21 games on the money line), and 40-27 (+19 games on the money line) as an underdog.  In contrast, Roark's teams are 2-9 (minus 11 games on the money line) in his daytime starts at home, and 8-15 (minus 13 games on the money line) as a home favorite.  Take St. Louis.  MLB Underdog of the Week!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs.  The Brewers lost again on Saturday and now they are only two games over .500 and falling further behind in the race for the NL Central Crown.  A fight for the Wild Card spot against the likes of the improved Nationals and Phillies will be very tough and will likely leave the Brewers on the outside looking in, so they need to win these Division games.  Today it will be up to RHP Adrian Houser to right the ship.  Multiple injuries to the starting staff have given the 26-year-old an opportunity to fill in for now.  Houser is 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 24 appearances, including seven starts and those are pretty good numbers for a spot starter.  The Cubs will go with RHP Yu Darvish.  After an injury-shortened 2018 in which he made only eight starts, Darvish is back and healthy this season.  The only problem is that Darvish's control issues are back as well.  In 121 innings, Darvish has walked 51 batters and as a result, he is just 3-5 with a 4.46 ERA in his 22 starts.  The Cubs are also 1-4 in Darvish's last five starts vs. winning teams (and his teams are 4-10, minus 12 games on the money line, in his last 14 in this situation).  Take the Brew Crew.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres.  In his third season in the league, RHP Walker Buehler has arrived.  The 25-year-old ace is 9-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 20 starts and Buehler made his first All-Star team last month just for good measure.  It doesn't hurt his cause that Buehler plays for the best team in the National League.  However, there's no denying the talent in his 6' 2" frame.  Buehler gets his 21st start of the season tonight against a Padres team that he's already had much success against.  In two career starts vs. the Pads, Buehler is 2-0 with a sparkling 0.69 ERA and 0.54 ERA in 13 innings.  He'll try to build on that tonight at home, where Buehler has yet to lose this season, going 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA in nine starts (vs. 5-2 and 3.94 in 11 starts on the road).  Despite their victory last night, the Padres are just 16-42 in their last 58 meetings with L.A. here at Dodger Stadium.  Take Los Angeles.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Cincinnati Reds.  If Dallas Keuchel couldn't be a member of the Astros -- who right now look like the best team in the AL -- he's probably happy to be a member of the Braves.  The Braves have a really good offense, and Atlanta will likely be the Dodgers' biggest threat in the NL this post-season.  Keuchel may only be 3-4 in his first eight starts with Atlanta, but it's only a matter of time before he turns that record around.  His ninth start will come tonight at home against a Reds team that is six games under .500 right now.  Keuchel apparently loves pitching in his new home ballpark as he has posted a 2.66 ERA here in three starts, covering just over 20 innings (vs. 4.71 in five starts elsewhere).  And in his only previous appearance against the Reds, Keuchel threw seven quality innings, allowing just two earned runs on five hits with six strikeouts and no walks.  The Reds are 4-10 in their last 14 road games, while the Braves are 5-1 in their last six games vs. teams with a RH starter.  Take Atlanta.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs.  Say what you want about veteran southpaw starter Gio Gonzalez and his inconsistent play throughout his career.  But since he's joined the Brewers at the end of last August, the 33-year-old has been one of Milwaukee's best pitchers.  Gonzalez is 5-1 with an ERA around three runs in 13 starts since joining the Brew Crew.  Gonzalez will get his ninth start of the season this afternoon against the Cubs in Wrigley Field, and he definitely doesn't mind these daytime starts.  In 106 previous starts under the sun, Gonzalez has logged a 44-29 record (.603) compared with an 85-69 record (.552) under the lights.  He didn't face the Cubs last season, but in two starts vs. them in 2019, the Brewers are 2-0 and Gonzalez is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA (two runs in 15 innings) and a 0.75 WHIP.  The Brewers are 6-1 in Gonzalez's last seven starts while the Cubs are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a lefthanded starter.  Take Milwaukee as the road underdog this afternoon. NL Central Division Underdog of the Month!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of the Double Header.  Chris Sale will get the start for Boston in this afternoon game vs. Domingo German (the same pitching match-up seen in last Sunday night's game in Boston).  We actually played against Chris Sale in that game, and took Domingo German +158, and easily cashed in a 9-6 New York victory.  Indeed, we've played against Sale a lot this season -- with much success -- when he's been installed as a big favorite.  But we'll take Sale in this re-match, as I look for him to snap his 3-game losing streak to the Yankees this season.  It's a bit confounding that he hasn't had the success this season which he has enjoyed in the past (his career ERA vs. the Yankees is 2.65 in 18 starts).  The good news is that the Red Sox have been able to get to German.  In the 26-year-old hurler's three starts vs. Boston, he's compiled a 6.10 ERA.  Take the Red Sox.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Kansas City Royals.  With arguably the most potent offense in baseball -- they are probably going to break the MLB single-season HR record -- the Twins understandably didn't acquire hitters at the trade deadline.  But they did address one of their weaker areas -- the bullpen -- by acquiring relievers Sergio Romo (Marlins) and Sam Dyson (Giants).  Starters such as veteran LH Martin Perez, who goes in his 19th start tonight, will appreciate the team's job of bolstering the bullpen so his quality efforts aren't wasted.  Perez is 8-4 with a 4.38 ERA in a season that has been quite a resurrection for the 28-year-old, who spent his first seven years with the Rangers.  Perez will match up against the Royals and RHP Glenn Sparkman, who was absolutely dreadful in his last outing.  He allowed eight runs on nine hits in a 9-1 defeat vs. the Indians.  And that performance lowered Sparkman's ERA to 5.25.  KC is 2-8 in its last 10 trips here, and 1-6 in RHP Glenn Sparkman's last seven road starts.  Take the Twins.  MLB Roadkill Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Chicago Cubs.  Who is the hard-luck pitcher of the last month?  That's easy -- in the NL anyway.  Cards RH Jack Flaherty hasn't won a start since May 14, yet the 23-year-old has a 2.48 ERA in five July starts coming into tonight.  (The Cardinals, though, have won the last two times that Flaherty has gone to the hill.)  Flaherty gets start #22 tonight and it will come at home against the Cubs and veteran LHP Jon Lester.  Road trips have not been friendly to Lester recently as the Cubs are 1-5 in Lester's last six road starts.  The Cubs got help for their offense at the deadline, acquiring Tony Kemp (Houston) and Nicholas Castellanos (Detroit) to bolster their outfield.  But they didn't do anything to improve their relief pitching, which has a current ERA of 4.20.  Despite their victory on Wednesday, the Cubs are now just 1-4 in their last five meetings in St. Louis.  Meanwhile, the Cards are 32-12 when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, while the Cubs have lost 11 of 16 with Lester when priced as a road underdog of +150 or less.  Take St. Louis.  MLB Division Game of the Month!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the San Francisco Giants.  The Phlllies players have to feel pretty good about the fact that their team took some chances and made some trades at the deadline yesterday to try to improve the team and their chances for a Division Title.  And likely nobody appreciates this more than veteran RHP Jake Arrieta.  Arrieta was part of the Championship Chicago Cubs team in 2016 and, at age 33, he knows that his chances to get another ring will be fading in the coming years.  Arrieta's best years may be behind him, but he's out to prove that he can still contribute, and we might be surprised at how well he performs come October if given the chance.  Arrieta has a winning record at home (5-3) vs. a losing one on the road (3-5), although the rest of the stats are very similar.  He's also 5-3 with a dominant 2.60 ERA in eight career starts covering 52 innings vs. the Giants.  Despite their victory on Wednesday, the Giants are an ugly 1-7 in their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park.  Take the Phils.  Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over St. Louis.  Kyle Hendricks will get the start for the Cubs, and he has been other-worldly vs. St. Louis, dating back to September 12, 2016.  Hendricks has made 10 starts over this time vs. St. Louis, and has gone 7-0, with a 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.  Even better:  the Cubs won all 10 of those starts!  I look for Chicago to run this streak to 11 in a row tonight.  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Philadelphia Phillies.  After a 9-15 record with a 4.42 ERA in 2017 and then 1-5 and 6.25 in an injury-shortened 2018, Jeff Samardzija was almost forgotten heading into this season.  But we've seen a resurgence from the 34-year-old RHP in 2019 and all of a sudden, Samardzija is relevant again.  The overall numbers may not seem that dominating (7-8 with a 3.95 ERA in 21 starts) but for the month of July, Samardzija is 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in just under 33 innings and he's one of the major reasons that the Giants are in the NL Wild Card picture.  He's also one of the main reasons that the Giants may not be so quick to move LH ace Madison Bumgarner now.  This is Game 2 of a series between two teams that are in very similar situations at this point.  RHP Vince Velasquez gets the start for the Phillies.  He's won just three times in 22 games this season (12 starts).  And the Phils are just  6-14 in Velasquez's last 20 home starts vs. teams with a winning record.  Take the Giants.  MLB Dog of the Week! As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Arizona.  The Yankees lost a rare game at home last night, as Arizona defeated them, 4-2.  That lowered New York's fantastic record at Yankee Stadium to 38-18.  This afternoon, the Yankees will hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka, who has been installed as a small favorite vs. Zack Greinke.  New York's been at its best at home when priced between -125 and -175, as it's 17-3 this season (including 4-0 behind Tanaka), and 62-25 (+23 games on the money line) the past three years.  Meanwhile, Greinke's teams are an awful 25-40 (minus 10 games on the money line) in his career when priced as a road dog of +150 or less.  Take the Yankees.

At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Atlanta Braves.  Nats #4 starter, Anibal Sanchez will get his fourth start of the season against the team that he pitched for in 2018.  The veteran RH had another strong outing last time against the Dodgers, going seven innings, allowing just one run on three hits with six Ks and one walk.  As he's often been, Sanchez was very efficient, throwing just 89 pitches in the seven innings and it's outings like that which can pay big dividends down the stretch, especially in September when things will likely be very tight in the NL East.  Start number 20 comes this afternoon at home where Sanchez has done his best work in 2019, going 2-1 with a 3.40 ERA in nine starts (vs. 4-5 and 3.83 in 10 on the road).  A less experienced pitcher might get frustrated that he hasn't notched more victories given how well he's pitched, but not Sanchez.  He knows that his job is to keep his team in the game as long as possible, and the improved bullpen play of the Nats means the wins will eventually come.  The Nats are 8-3 in Sanchez's last 11 starts, and we'll back the home team today.  Take Washington.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Oakland Athletics.  Four Brewer starters are now on the shelf as Gio Gonzalez (shoulder), Jhoulys Chacin (oblique), and Brandon Woodruff (also oblique) have joined Jeff Nelson on the Injured List.  This leaves only Zach Davies and Chase Anderson as healthy members of the rotation.  It also opens the door for some others, notably RH Jordan Lyles, whom the Brewers just acquired from the Pirates for minor league pitcher Cody Ponce.  And also today's starter, Adrian Houser (4-4, 4.19 ERA), who has bounced back-and-forth from reliever to starter.  We'll take the road underdog tonight, as the Brewers are an awesome 44-27 (+15 games on the money line) off a blowout loss by more than 3 runs.  Take Milwaukee.