Sports Picks & Predictions

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  After a two-game sweep by the D-Backs in Pittsburgh, in which the Pirates were out-scored 16-2, the Bucs have to get on a plane and travel across the country to play an even better team from the  NL West division.  Thursday's shutout loss to Arizona was an early game (12:35) so at least Pittsburgh will have enough rest by the time it gets to LA to face the Dodgers in the first of this weekend series.  It looks clear now that when the Pirates shipped Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows to Tampa in exchange for Chris Archer, the Rays got the best of that deal.  But that doesn't mean that the veteran RHP can't be an asset for the Pirates.  Archer overstayed his welcome in Tampa and he seems to be thriving so far in the Steel City.  He is 1-1 in four starts and his 2.74 ERA would count as the best of his career if he can continue on this path.  The Dodgers will go with LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu and they are 7-18 in Ryu's last 25 starts vs. teams with a winning record.  Take the Pirates as a big underdog.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles/Golden State game.  The #1-seeded Warriors surrendered 129 points to the Clippers in Game 5, and that won't sit well with coach Steve Kerr.  Indeed, it was the 4th-worst defensive effort by his team in 88 Playoff since he's become head coach.  But after giving up 115+ points in a playoff game under Kerr, the Warriors have generally rebounded with a much better defensive effort, as they've gone 'under' the total 64% of the time.  And that dovetails with the Warriors' results, generally, off a loss since Kerr became coach, as they're 63-44 'under' the total after losing their previous game.  Moreover, dating back to 1993, #1-seeded teams have gone 'under' the total 79% of the time as road favorites (or PK) off an upset home loss in the Playoffs.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Los Angeles.  The Warriors were upset at home for the 2nd time in this series when they lost 129-121 in Game 5, as a 14-point favorite.  But, as we saw in Game 3 following Game 2's upset loss, the Warriors are often at their best following a very bad game.  Golden State won that Game 3 by a 132-105 score, and easily covered the number.  I expect a similar result on this Friday night, as Golden State is an awesome 34-1 straight-up and 27-8 ATS as a favorite of -6 or more points off a loss if they're playing an opponent off a win.  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Milwaukee Brewers.  When Jacob deGrom left the Mets' recent road trip to have his elbow examined by a doctor, a collective groan went up from the Queens area.  The reigning Cy Young winner had described his elbow as "barking" when he was throwing a side session.  Fortunately for the Mets and their fans, deGrom's injury was not serious and he is ready to return to the rotation tonight after missing just one start.  It's a tough assignment against a very good Brewers team -- one he has hasn't faced in almost two years.  But deGrom should be up for it here at home where he has only started one game so far this season.  With the Crew's list of walking wounded starting pitchers (Nelson, Peralta, Suter) plus Guerra, who is on bereavement leave, they are looking for arms to plug the holes (they've even re-signed Gio Gonzalez).  So Milwaukee will call on RHP Chase Anderson to return to the rotation for just his second start of 2019.  The Brewers have not fared well at Citi Field, as they are 3-9 in their last 12 games in Queens.  Take the Mets.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cleveland Indians.  Houston RHP Collin McHugh looked like a world-beater last season as a reliever, posting a 6-2 record with an ERA under two runs in 58 appearances.  That performance, along with the fact that the 'Stros didn't re-sign Dallas Keuchel or Charlie Morton has resulted in McHugh getting a regular shot at the rotation in 2019.  Don't let McHugh's 4.78 ERA fool you.  He was cruising along through his first four starts of the season (five ER in 23 IP) but threw in a big clunker in start number five, allowing 10 runs (nine earned) in just 3 1/3 innings in Arlington against the Rangers.  Look for the veteran to bounce back strong from that sub-par performance tonight.  Two things that bode well for him in this start: 1) McHugh is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in six career games (including two starts) vs. the Tribe, and 2) he is 33-13 (.717) with a 3.29 ERA in 78 appearances (50 starts) here at Minute Maid Park.  The Astros are also 14-5 in McHugh's last 19 home starts vs. teams with a winning record.  Take Houston.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers.  Both teams will hand the ball to a lefty starter tonight.  Texas has called up rookie Taylor Hearn, who will be making his Major League debut, while Seattle will start Marco Gonzales.  And Gonzalez is one of the most surprising starters in the game so far, going 4-0 with a 3.32 ERA through his first six starts.  This pitching match-up bodes well for the home team, as Seattle is batting .282 vs. lefties this season, while Texas is hitting just .213 vs. lefties.  Also in Seattle's favor is the fact that the M's are 12-3 in Gonzalez's last 15 after a quality start in his last outing.  The Mariners will no doubt be happy to return home after being humbled in San Diego.  The mighty M's lineup -- minus a DH -- could muster only four total runs in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, as the Padres took both inter-league games on Tuesday and Wednesday behind the kind of pitching which Seattle hasn't seen much of this season.  However, now that the Mariners are back in familiar territory, and facing a familiar foe, you can expect that offense to wake up against a Rangers team which has the third-worst pitching staff in the league (5.57 team ERA).  It's true that the Rangers have a winning record overall this season, but they've struggled on the road lately, winning just six of their last 26 away from Arlington.  Take Seattle.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Denver.  San Antonio was blown out in Game 5.  But that shouldn't have surprised anyone, as San Antonio is now 1-31 straight-up and 9-22-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points.  Now, the Spurs return home.  And San Antonio is 23-3 straight-up and 22-5 ATS at home when playing with revenge.  The Spurs have also won 14 of 15 home games vs. the Nuggets.  Lay the points with San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets to go 'under' the total.  San Antonio is in a 'must-win' situation tonight, as it is down 3-games-to-2.  And one of the things I love to do is play on the 'under' in "elimination" games, if the team in the 'must-win' position is favored, and off a double-digit loss.  Since 1991, such teams have gone 'under' the total 59.3% of the time.  The 'under' also falls into 73-51 and 84-43 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Boston Red Sox.  If someone told you that the Tigers were visiting Boston at the end of April and that one team had a winning record and the other a losing one, you would say the Tigers had the latter.  But it's Detroit's baseball team which has had success so far, while the Sox have struggled.  That won't be the case come the second half of course, but for now it's quite surprising to see the upside-down state of affairs in the AL.  It seems like a long time since Red Sox RHP Rick Porcello won the AL Cy Young with 22 victories and a 3.15 ERA.  But it was just three seasons ago.  Since then, Porcello has been a Jeckyll-and-Hyde-type of player, posting 17 losses in 2017 followed by 17 wins last season.  So far, 2019 looks a lot more like 2017 as Porcello is 0-3 with an 8.47 ERA in four starts.  He'll face his old team tonight for the first time in over two years and unfortunately this is a Tigers club which is playing very well right now.  The Tigers are 12-11 on the season (plus 5 games on the money line), while Boston is a relatively poor 10-15 (minus 15 games on the money line).  Take Detroit.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the L.A. Dodgers over Chicago.  Ross Stripling will get the ball for Dave Roberts' team, and he's been great this season.  In 29 1-3 innings, Stripling has a 3.07 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.  Stripling's mound opponent this afternoon will be LHP Jon Lester, who has missed a couple of starts while he was on the Injured List due to a strained hamstring.  Chicago's coaching staff has pre-determined to limit Lester's number of pitches to about 75, so he won't be around in this game's later innings.  And that's one advantage for Los Angeles.  The Dodgers are also 6-1 this season in daytime games, and 67-33 their last 100 games played in the afternoon.  Take Los Angeles.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Utah.  The Rockets were up 3 games to none, but took their foot off the gas in Game 4, and were upset by the Jazz, 107-91.  Part of the problem for the Rockets on Monday was that center Clint Capela was still struggling with a viral infection, which has severely limited his production in this series.  But with 48 hours of rest, coach Mike D'Antoni is optimistic that Capela will be back to his normal, dominant self tonight.  Houston has dominated Utah in this price range, as Houston is 14-2 straight-up and 12-4 ATS when priced from -3 to -9 vs. the Jazz.  Even better for the Rockets:  5-point (or greater) NBA favorites, off upset road losses in the Playoffs, have covered 68% since May 2003, if they failed to cover the spread by 15+ points in their previous game.  Lay the points with the home club.  NBA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets.  Games 1 and 2 of this series were no contest as the Mets embarrassed the Phillies the last two nights, out-scoring them 14-1.  But Philadelphia can get out of Queens with at least some dignity intact tonight as Game 3 will feature one of its most consistent starters so far this season.  RHP Vince Velasquez will get his fourth start of 2019 (he also has one relief appearance) while the Mets will go with LH Jason Vargas.  Vargas lasted just four innings in his last start in St. Louis.  The Mets won that game but the veteran southpaw was not all that impressive.  Velasquez has never had an ERA under 4.00 in any of his four previous MLB seasons, but so far he has a very nice 2.55 number along with a WHIP of just 0.96.  The key for Velasquez is control as he is a pitcher who has struggled with it in the past.  However, so far in 2019, he has allowed just four walks in 17 2/3 innings of work.  The Mets are also a poor 14-36 (-19 games on the money line) in their last 50 games as a home underdog.  Take the Phils.  MLB Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over Cincinnati.  Mike Soroka will get his second start of the 2019 campaign.  His first one went well, as he gave up just one earned run over five innings, and threw 58 of his 85 pitches for strikes.  Soroka and the Braves are favored this evening against RHP Tanner Roark.  And that bodes well for Atlanta, Roark's teams have gone 2-9 at home vs. .500 (or better) opponents.  Additionally, Cincy has been awful when installed as an underdog (4-10 this season; 97-151, minus 18 games on the money line the last three years).  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over San Diego.  The Mariners lost, 6-3, last night.  And that game ended Seattle's 13-game streak of scoring 5+ runs on the road.  Still, Seattle's 11-3 away from home this season, and has won both of Felix Hernandez's road starts this season.  The Mariners are a huge underdog this afternoon, and are 31-24 (+17 games on the money line) as a road dog.  Meanwhile, the Padres are 36-57 (minus 23 games on the money line) at home.  Take the Mariners.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over Miami.  The Indians will turn to righty Jefry Rodriguez to snap their 3-game losing streak.  Yesterday, Cleveland fell here, at home, 3-1, to Miami.  The good news for Cleveland this afternoon is that Miami starter Sandy Alcantara has been roughed up over his last three starts (7.80 ERA, 2.00 WHIP).  And the Marlins are a dreadful 66-166 (minus 44 games on the money line) when priced at +150 (or higher).  Take Cleveland.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the San Jose Sharks.  If you had told us that the Knights would pile up 59 shots against the Sharks and goalie Martin Jones in Game 6 (vs. only 29 that Marc-Andre Fleury had to face) then we would have said "series over."  After all, Jones had been pretty awful leading up to that game on Sunday.  But despite the fact that the home team threw everything but the kitchen sink at Jones, he somehow prevailed.  And the Sharks got the game-winner in double OT to force this Game 7.  Of course, just because Jones was spectacular on Sunday, it does not mean he will equal that performance one game later -- especially in light of the fact that, in the first four games of this series, Jones had allowed 13 goals on 80 shots (a 0.838 saves percentage).  There are other reasons to like the visitors tonight as well.  Like the fact that they are 19-6 (+12 games on the money line) in their last 25 when revenging a home loss.  Or that they're 25-9 after not scoring 2+ goals.  Take Vegas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over San Diego.  This season, Seattle's gone 11-2 away from home, including 8-0 at night, while San Diego's won just one of its nine home games at night this season.  That bodes well for the road team on Tuesday.  Seattle will hand the ball to rookie Erik Swanson, who made his first MLB start on April 17 vs. Cleveland.  He was a tough-luck loser that day, as he gave up just one earned run over six innings.  But Seattle's #1-ranked offense was shut out, 1-0.  Tonight, the Mariners will face southpaw Nick Margevicius.  And Seattle's averaging 8.0 runs per game, and hitting .290 vs. lefty starters this season.  Take the Mariners tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Minnesota.  Wade Miley will get the start for Houston, and he's been super this season, with a 3.32 ERA (including 0.00 at home), and a 1.20 WHIP.  His mound opponent tonight will be Michael Pineda, who was bombed in his last start, at home, vs. Toronto.  The Blue Jays put eight men on base, and scored six runs, in Pineda's 3 2-3 innings.  Miley will get the start tonight with an extra day of rest, while Pineda will start on regular rest.  And Miley's teams are 11-2 in Miley's last 13 starts with an extra day or two of rest.  And they're also 10-1 with him on the hill, when priced from -125 to -175.  Take Houston.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  The Brewers pulled off perhaps the trade of the decade when they acquired OF Christian Yelich from the Marlins in exchange for three minor league players and OF Lewis Brinson.  All Yelich did last season was hit 36 homers, drive in 110 runs, with 22 steals while winning the NL MVP in the process.  And, as if that wasn't enough, Yelich is now on a pace to blow his 2018 numbers away.  He had a rare 0-for-4 day on Monday but don't be surprised if he bounces back tonight and produces runs for the Brew Crew in this important match-up of two of the best teams in the NL.  Pitching stats don't get much better than those of Brewers RH SP Zach Davies, who has allowed just three ER in 22 2/3 innings for a ridiculous ERA of 1.19.  Despite their loss on Monday, the Brewers are still 9-3 in the last 12 meetings with St. Louis.  Take Milwaukee.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the NY Mets.  Yesterday, we played on the Mets over the Phillies, and got the $$$ behind Steven Matz.  Tonight, we'll switch gears and play on the road team.  Zach Wheeler's numbers surely don't inspire confidence.  This season, his ERA is north of 6 runs per game.  And at home, it is 13.49, with a 2.35 WHIP.  In his career, the Mets are 19-27 (minus 10 games on the money line) in his home starts.  Take Philadelphia.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  We played on Pittsburgh yesterday, and lost.  But we will come right back with them, tonight.  It's early still, but the award for tough luck pitcher just might have to go to the Pirates' RH Trevor Williams. Despite a 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, Williams is just 1-0 on the season so far.  He'll try to add to his Win column in what will be only his second start of the season here at home.  PNC Park has been a good place for Williams in his career as he is 12-10 with a 3.30 ERA in 38 games (32 starts) covering just under 194 innings here.  The D-Backs will go with RHP Luke Weaver who came to Arizona as part of the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals.  Weaver's numbers this season aren't that different from Williams' (1-1 with a 3.92 ERA in four starts).  But Weaver has faced the Pirates seven times in his career -- including four starts -- and he's just 1-1 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.48 WHIP against them.  Take the Pirates.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the San Jose Sharks.  Not that they needed more motivation, but the Golden Knights must be licking their chops at the prospect of getting back to the Conference Championship now that the #1-seeded Flames are out.  But first things first, and that means finishing off the Sharks.  No doubt, the Knights want to get this series over with tonight rather than going back to San Jose for a Game 7.  In a very short period of time, T-Mobile Arena has become one of the toughest places for opposing teams in the NHL.  In fact, the Knights are almost perfect (4-1) in five post-season games vs. the Sharks here at home coming into tonight.  And they're 35-16 at home when the Total was 6 goals (or more).  Sharks goalie Martin Jones had a much-needed solid performance in Game 5 at home, but he has been shaky at best here in Vegas.  In fact, Jones has been pulled mid-game four times in eight games at T-Mobile in the regular season and playoffs.  Although he wasn't pulled in the Sharks' 6-3 loss here in Game 3, he easily could have as he was the following game after allowing two goals in the first seven shots.  Take Vegas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto/Orlando game.  We played on the 'under' in Game 2, and it easily sailed under the closing 211 number, as Toronto won, 98-93.  The number is a bit lower today, but the oddsmakers have yet to catch up to the rightful number.  Indeed, the three games in this Playoff series have gone 'under' all three times, by 7.5, 19.5 and 20 points.  And if we go back to the regular season, six of the seven meetings this season have gone 'under' (as have 14 of the last 19 meetings).  The Magic are 39-19 'under' off a straight-up loss, including 14-0 'under' their last 14 when priced from +4 to +9.5 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Milwaukee Brewers.  Clayton Kershaw's days of being the consensus best pitcher in baseball may be over for now -- due mainly to various injuries he's suffered over the past two seasons -- but he's still a very dangerous player when he steps on the mound.  That was the case in his last -- and only -- start this season when the veteran LH hurled seven dominant innings, allowing one run on five hits with six strikeouts and no walks.  He was very efficient in that effort, throwing just 84 pitches through the seven frames.  This afternoon he will go up against a very good Brewers club.  He's done very well in his career vs. the Brew Crew, posting a 2.86 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 14 starts covering 91 1/3 innings.  The Dodgers are also 22-10 in Kershaw's last 32 road starts vs. teams with a winning record.  Take Los Angeles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Houston.  The Jazz lost by a combined 52 points in Games 1 + 2 of this series.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Utah, especially since it's been installed as a favorite in Game 3.  But NBA favorites have actually cashed 62.8% in the NBA Playoffs after losing each of the first two games of a series by double-digits.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Cincinnati.  The Reds are 7-12 on the season, yet have been installed as a road favorite against San Diego.  The reason is the perceived advantage for the Reds on the mound.  Cincinnati will hand the ball to Luis Castillo, who has a 1.46 ERA this season.  But he's struggled vs. the Reds in his young career, with an 0-2 record (3 starts), a 5.17 ERA, and a 1.34 WHIP.  Castillo will face San Diego's southpaw Eric Lauer, who's been excellent in his career vs. Cincinnati.  In two starts, Lauer has a 1.00 ERA, with a 1.33 WHIP vs. the Reds.  Cincy is 69-87 (minus 17 games on the money line) as a favorite, and 31-56 (minus 18 games on the money line) vs. lefties.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee.  Detroit finds itself in an 0-2 hole as this series shifts to the Motor City.  I love the Pistons tonight, as underdogs of +6 or more points, in the Opening Round of the NBA Playoffs, have covered 67% of Game 3s over the last 29 seasons when they lost the first two games of the series.  Take the Pistons.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox.  Few pitchers in the Majors can claim to have as great a two-year run as Charlie Morton had in the past two seasons (2017 & 2018).  After spending one forgettable season in Philadelphia in 2016, Morton -- at the ripe age of 33 -- resurrected his career in Houston in 2017, going 14-7 and winning a World Series ring (his first).  He did himself one better (minus the ring) last season, going 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA in his first full season of starts since he was in Pittsburgh.  But with the depth they had, the 'Stros decided not to make Morton an offer when he hit free agency and he signed with the Rays.  So far, Morton has picked up where he left off with the 'Stros, going 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA over this first four Tampa starts.  Morton's teams are 22-9 (+7 games on the money line) in his last 31 starts on an extra day or two of rest.  Take the Rays.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Miami Marlins.  It's an upside-down season for NL starting pitching so far.  The guys we usually count on to be the aces of the League are looking like anything but.  Jacob deGrom just left the Mets to get his aching elbow examined, Aaron Nola has a 7.45 ERA, Clayton Kershaw is still trying to get healthy, and Max Scherzer has a losing record with a 3.33 ERA.  Admittedly, Scherzer's had just four starts.  And just about every other starter in baseball would take that number in a heartbeat.  But it's almost a full run higher than what we're used to seeing from the veteran RHP.  Perhaps a start against the Marlins will get Scherzer's season back on track.  Although his ERA is higher than usual, Scherzer's WHIP is solid (1.07) and he has a sparkling 7.00 K:BB ratio having punched out 35 batters in just 27 innings.  The Nats have also beaten the Marlins in each of Scherzer's last seven starts against them going back to August of 2017.  And they've outscored them 44-11 in his last four.  Take Washington.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Nashville Predators over the Dallas Stars.  The Preds felt pretty good after victories in Games 2 and 3 of this series, but the defense fell apart in Game 4 -- an easy 5-1 win for the Stars at home.  Now it's back to Nashville with the series all tied up at two games apiece.  The Stars were just 19-22 on the road during the regular season, and Nashville is always a tough place for visiting teams in the post-season, especially in the first round.  The fact that they got blown out in Game 4 may be a blessing in disguise as the Predators are 5-1 in their last six (37-14 in their last 51) after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.  And they are 14-2 in their last 16 games following a loss by three or more goals.  The Stars are 29-60 in their last 89 games as a road underdog and 9-26 (-24 games on the money line) after scoring five or more goals in their previous game.  Take Nashville.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets plus the points over Philadelphia.  The Nets look to even up this series at 2 games apiece after dropping the last two games to Philly.  We will take Brooklyn, as home teams have cashed 67% since 1991 when down 2 games to 1 in a series, and not laying 7 or more points.  Additionally, the Nets are 6-1 ATS at home their last seven when they were off back to back losses.  Take Brooklyn.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Cincinnati Reds.  With perhaps the best lineup they've had in over a decade, along with a deep young pitching staff with a bunch of other youngsters waiting in the wings, there is more optimism in San Diego regarding the Padres than there has been in quite some time.  And when you consider that the NL West is as competitive as any division in the Majors, then it's not unrealistic to assume that the Pads can beat the Dodgers and finish on top in October.  They will go with 27-year-old LHP Matt Strahm tonight in Game 2 of this series with the Reds.  Strahm posted a sharp 2.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP last season in 41 appearances (five starts).  Those numbers seem to have earned Strahm a full-time starting role this season.  And although he's struggled so far (0-2 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts), it's important to note that this will be his first start of 2019 against a losing team.  The Reds will go with RHP Anthony DeSclafani tonight and they are 0-7 in his last seven trips to the mound.  Take San Diego.  As always, good luck.  Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Colorado Avalanche.  Add the Avalanche and Flames to the growing list of first round surprises in this year's NHL Playoffs.  After winning the first game of this series convincingly, the Flames have now fallen in three straight and stand just one game away from elimination heading into Game 5 tonight back at home.  The #1 seed in the West cannot afford to allow 52 shots like it did in Game 4 in Denver on Wednesday.  But on the bright side, if you're a Calgary fan, is the fact that, despite the lopsided shot totals, the game still went into overtime.  Unfortunately, a Mikko Rantanen goal with 10 minutes left in the extra stanza extinguished the Flames by a 3-2 final score.  The Flames knew that winning two in Colorado would be tough so now they will rely on their own home ice advantage which worked well for them in the regular season (26-10-5).  Moreover, the Avs are just 16-35 in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take the Flames.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Portland.  The Thunder were blown out by 20 points in Game 2, and now return home for a "must win" game 3.  We'll lay the points with the Thunder, as favorites of -3+ points, off a Playoff loss (as an underdog) by 20+ points, have cashed 68.4% since 1991.  Take Oklahoma City.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Colorado Rockies.  There's no doubt now who the best starter on the Rockies is.  RHP German Marquez won 14 games last season and he's off to one of the best starts of any pitcher in the league in 2019, going 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA and league-leading 0.70 WHIP in four starts.  And all he did in his last start was throw a one-hit, complete game in a 4-0 win over the Giants.  But before we make Marquez the next Bob Gibson, notice that his three best starts -- by far -- came on the road (including the last one).  But in his only start at Coors Field, he allowed five runs on seven hits in five innings with just two strikeouts.  In fact, for his career, Marquez has a 4.63 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 33 games (32 starts) here, compared to  3.41 and 1.18 in 39 games (37 starts) elsewhere.  The Phils will go with RH Vince Velasquez, who has had issues with walks in the past,  This season, however, he has reduced his walk rate from 3.6 per 9 IP to just 2.3 in his three outings.  Key Stat:  the Rockies are an awful 1-6 with Marquez on the mound after he allowed 0 earned runs in his last outing.  Take the Phillies.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Boston.  The Pacers were up seven points at halftime in Game 1, and were up 11 points after 3 quarters in Game 2, but blew both leads.  Thus, Indiana finds itself in an 0-2 hole in the series.  The good news for Indy, however, is that it's an awesome 139-73-9 ATS off a loss, if it was rested, and playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a straight-up win.  Take the Pacers to win (and cover) Game 3.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto/Orlando game to go 'under' the total.  The first two games of this series went 'under' the total.  And that's been "par for the course" in this series, as these two teams also went 'under' in three of their four meetings in the regular season this year (and 13 of the last 18, dating back to 2014).  The 'under' also falls into a super NBA Playoffs Totals system of mine which is 136-89 (60.4%) since 1991.  Take the 'under.'

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles/Golden State game.  The #1-seeded Warriors blew a 31-point lead in Game 2, and they fell to the Clippers, 135-131.  That was the 2nd-most points the Warriors have given up all season, and the reason was their defense in the 2nd half.  Golden State actually led 73-50 at halftime.  But it shockingly gave up 85 points in the 2nd half.  Coach Steve Kerr will no doubt emphasize defense for this road game at Staples Center.  And it should comfortably sail under the total, which is a very high number.  Indeed, dating back to 1991, #1-seeded teams have gone 'under' the total 83% of the time as road favorites (or PK) off an upset loss at home in the Playoffs.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Cincinnati.  The Padres are off to an 11-8 start this season, though they have dropped their last three in a row.  Tonight, they'll hand the ball to rookie RHP Chris Paddack, who has been brilliant in his three starts this season.  Paddack's ERA is a sparkling 1.29, and his WHIP is 0.85.  And the Padres have won each of his three starts.  Cincinnati is 5-11 on the season, but it's 4-3 when favored, yet 1-9 as an underdog.  And its only win as an underdog this season was when it was an extremely small underdog, at +105, in a game at Monterrey, Mexico vs. St. Louis.  Lay the wood with the Padres.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Vegas Golden Knights.  The Sharks return home for Game 5 with their post-season lives hanging by a thread.  After taking Game 1 here last Wednesday, San Jose has been steamrolled by the defending Western Conference Champs, losing the next three games by a combined 16-6.  Monday's Game 4 on the Strip was especially bad, as the Knights never gave the visitors a chance in a 5-0 shellacking.  Look for the Sharks to mix up some lines tonight as they try to get back to the form that won them 46 games in the regular season -- 25 of them here at home.  The Sharks also will get the services of C Joe Thornton back tonight, as the veteran leader had to sit out game four to serve a one-game suspension.  The Knights are 1-5 in their last six road games and 5-16 in their last 21 as an underdog.  Meanwhile, San Jose is 8-1 when playing with revenge from a shutout loss, and 13-1 at home after losing by more than two goals in its previous game.  Take the Sharks.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Los Angeles Angels.  Once one of the most feared starters in baseball, RHP Felix Hernandez is now basically an afterthought in the landscape of AL starters.  In fact, with the struggles that King Felix has had over the past few seasons, it's easy to forget that the former Cy Young award winner is only 33 years old.  And if you ask him, Hernandez would probably say he has a lot of baseball left in his arm.  His numbers so far this season would seem to back up that claim as King Felix has a 4.38 ERA in his three starts with a sparkling 10:1 strikeouts-to-walks ratio in 12 1/3 innings.  He was a tough-luck loser in his last start, getting beaten by the first-place Astros despite six strong innings.   King Felix faced the Angels in his first start this season on April 1 -- a 6-3 Mariners victory in which he allowed one ER over 5 1/3 innings.  Seattle is also 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the Halos and 4-1 in the last five here in Anaheim.  Take the M's.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Denver.  We played on the Nuggets in Game 2, and got the $$$ when the Nuggets blew out the Spurs in the 2nd half for a nine-point comeback victory.  One of the reasons  played against San Antonio was its god-awful record on the road when installed as an underdog of more than 4 points (now 1-30 straight-up since May 2017).  However, at home, the Spurs have dominated, with a 43-10 SU record (34-19 ATS).  And Gregg Popovich's men have been especially strong when playing with revenge.  Dating back to March 2018, the Spurs are 22-3 straight-up and 21-4 ATS in this role!  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Colorado Avalanche.  Like their #1-seeded partners over in the Eastern Conference, the Flames are in a bit a trouble in their first round series (though won't be swept like Tampa Bay was).  After looking every bit the part of a top seed in the first game when they blanked the Avs 4-0 at home, the Flames have stumbled in Games 2 +3, and now find themselves down 2-1 heading into this crucial Game 4 in Denver.  Look for Calgary to tighten up the defense considerably tonight as it can ill-afford to give up another 56 shots to the home team as it did on Monday.  The Avs are thin at the center position with Derick Brassard suffering from an illness and Vladislav Kamenek still sidelined with a shoulder injury.  Neither is expected to suit up tonight.  Despite their loss on Monday, the Flames are still 9-3 in the last 12 meetings and 4-1 in the last five here at the Pepsi Center.  Take Calgary.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Houston.  The 4th-seeded Rockets blew out Utah 122-90 in Game 1 behind 29 points from James Harden.  Unfortunately for Houston, NBA #4 seeds are a money-burning 0-19 ATS vs. .600 (or better) foes in the first round of the Playoffs, as favorites of more than 3 points, if they were off a SU/ATS win.  Even worse for Houston:  Utah's 17-8 ATS as a road underdog off a double-digit Playoff loss, while Houston has covered just 9 of 32 games as a home favorite after a double-digit home win in its previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee.  Virtually everything went right for Mike Budenholzer's men in Game 1.  They sprinted out to a 38-18 lead after the first quarter, en route to a 35-point victory.  Milwaukee, of course, was aided by the fact that the Pistons' Blake Griffin was sidelined with a knee injury.  Griffin has been ruled out for the remainder of this series, as well, and his absence has been accounted for in the game 2 point spread.  We'll take the underdog in tonight's game, as teams off Playoff blowout wins by 35+ points have been atrocious (22% ATS the past 29 years) in their next game.  Take the Pistons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  The Braves took advantage of the Baltimore Orioles' fire sale in the second half of last season and picked up a few players from them for virtually nothing.  The most significant of those acquisitions was hard-throwing RHP Kevin Gausman.  Gausman has a fastball that regularly hits 96 MPH and the Braves figured they could work with him on his consistency -- something the Orioles apparently weren't able to do.  You can't teach a high-90's fastball, after all.  It seems to be paying off as Gausman went 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts with Atlanta last season after going 5-8 with a 4.43 ERA in 21 starts with the Orioles.  And so far this season, Gausman has picked up where he left off at the end of last year, posting a 2.84 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his first two starts of 2019.  The D-Backs' RHP Zack Godley is off to a rough start, going 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA over his first three starts after logging 15 victories last season.  The Braves are 7-3 in Gausman's last 10 starts and 6-1 in his last seven here at SunTrust Park.  Take Atlanta.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Perhaps as big a surprise in the AL as the 13-4 Tampa Bay Rays or the 13-7 Seattle Mariners are the 8-8 Detroit Tigers.  Nobody gave the Tigers any chance of finishing with anything close to a .500 record, but here we are three weeks into the season and Detroit's rag-tag collection of players is competing with the best that the AL Central has to offer.  Few of the players on the Tigers are household names.  And that certainly is the case with 26-YO RHP Spencer Turnbull.  Turnbull is still looking for his first MLB victory, but there are a few things to like about his performance so far this season, including his 19 strikeouts and 3.80 K:BB ratio in three starts covering 15 innings.  Pittsburgh took Game 1 of this series on Tuesday, in extra innings, 5-3, but the Pirates are just 1-9 in their last 10 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.  Take the Tigers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Cleveland Indians.  You can say what you want about journeyman starter Mike Leake.  But the 31-year-old has had an MLB career that many starters would love to emulate.  First, Leake was one of a very small percentage of players who made his MLB debut without ever having appeared in a Minor League game.  Second, prior to this season, the veteran RH has posted double-digit wins in six of his nine MLB seasons.  And in the other three campaigns, Leake had eight, eight, and nine victories, respectively.  It certainly won't hurt Leake's chances for another 10+ win season that he pitches for a team with one of the best records (and offenses) in baseball.  And he's off to a very good start, having gone 2-0 in his first three starts (with the Mariners winning his other start, to boot).  Leake's also performed well vs. the Indians in his career, with a 4-2 record and a 3.98 ERA in nine career starts, covering 54 1/3 innings.  And his teams (the Mariners and Reds) have gone 3-1 in his last four starts vs. Cleveland, while the Mariners have gone 23-11 in his last 34 starts, overall.  It's true that Seattle's #1 offense (6.84 runs per game) has cooled off a bit over its last three games, with just seven runs scored.  But it's understandable when one considers that each of the three pitchers the Mariners faced in those games --  Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer -- were in the All-Star Game in 2018.  Tonight, the Mariners will face 23-year-old Shane Bieber, who is a very good pitcher, but not an All-Star.  Take Seattle to even up this series at 1 game apiece.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs did something very much out of character in Game 1:  they pulled a big upset on the road, as a 5.5-point underdog.  Indeed, the Spurs road win percentage this season is .404.  And over the last two seasons, going into this series, they were 0-27 straight up, and 7-19-1 ATS as a road underdog of more than four points!  Unfortunately for the Spurs, they're likely to revert to form tonight.  And that's because, since April 28, 1991, NBA road teams, with a road win percentage less than .405, have covered just 33% in the Playoffs following an upset road win.  Take Denver to slaughter San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Orlando.  The Raptors lost at home in Game 1, 104-101, to the Magic.  And they were favored by 9.5 points in that game.  The good news for Kawhi Leonard & Co. is that favorites of more than 9 points, off a game where they lost outright, and also failed to cover the spread by more than 9 points, are 30-0 straight-up, and 22-7-1 ATS in the Playoffs.  Take Toronto to blow out Orlando.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Columbus Blue Jackets.  In one of the most shocking first round results ever, the heavily-favored Lightning find themselves on the brink of elimination -- down 3-0 to the Blue Jackets heading into Game 4 in Columbus tonight.  You can basically count on one hand the number of teams that have come back from a 3-0 deficit in a first-round NHL playoff series.  And now the Lightning find themselves in that position.  But there's some reason for optimism.  The most obvious is the fact that the Bolts will get the services back of the NHL's most productive player.  Nikita Kucherov (41 G; 87 A; 128 Points) served a one-game suspension for Game 3, and will be on the ice tonight for the visitors.  Certainly, if Tampa had Kucherov in the last game, it could have made a difference in the final result.  And, although they've had a handful of three-game losing streaks in the last couple of seasons, the fact remains that the Lightning have not lost four in a row since January 2017 (and they're 9-2 their last 11 following a 3-game losing streak).  Even better:  the Lightning are 11-0 this season after a road loss (and 36-15 the last 3 seasons).  Take Tampa Bay.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors routed L.A. in Game 1, 121-104.  But off that blowout win, we'll fade the defending Champs on this Monday.  Indeed, double-digit home favorites off SU/ATS home playoff wins by 10+ points have covered just 36% since 1991.  That doesn't bode well for Golden State tonight.  And neither does the fact that the Clippers are 45-37-1 ATS this season, compared to just 36-46-1 ATS for Golden State.  The Clippers are also 10-4 ATS their last 14 road games when playing with revenge.  And #1 seeds (like the Warriors) are an awful 48-73-6 ATS as a favorite after winning Game 1 of a playoff series.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Colorado Rockies.  Colorado is one of the league's biggest disappointments, as it's 4-12 this season (including 1-9 at night, and 1-7 as an underdog).  On the opposite side of the MLB expectations spectrum is San Diego.  With the addition of Manny Machado, everyone assumed that the Padres would be better this season.  But their 11-6 record through the first three weeks has to be a pleasant surprise, even to the team itself.  And the future is pretty bright as this club features a slew of young, talented pitchers including tonight's starter, Joey Lucchesi.  The 25-year-old lefty burst onto the Majors last season with eight wins, a 4.08 ERA, and a 10.0 K/9IP rate in his 26 starts with the Padres.  Now, with an improved offense behind him, people are expecting more from Lucchesi as he embarks on his sophomore campaign.  He took advantage of his home ballpark in 2018, going 5-5 with a 3.99 ERA in 16 starts.  And, so far he is yet to be scored upon here in two 2019 starts (zero ER on seven hits in 10 1/3 IP).  The Padres are also 4-1 in Lucchesi's last five home starts and 7-1 in their last eight series openers.  Finally, he's dominated the Rockies in four starts, with a 2.05 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .208 opponents' batting average.  Take San Diego.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Sixers were stunned, 111-102, in Game 1 of this series, here at home.  But I love Philly to bounce back today, as home favorites of -7+ points, off a straight-up loss in the Playoffs (and ATS loss) by 7+ points each, have cashed 62.3% in conference games since 1991!  Moreover, the Sixers are 43-29 ATS their last 72 at home, including 18-8 ATS off an ATS defeat by more than four points.  Take Philadelphia to blow out Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Washington Capitals.  The Hurricanes' task is straightforward:  win Games 3 + 4 to level this series at two games apiece.  It's true that the Caps have won each of the last five meetings here in Raleigh.  But all five defeats were narrow, and were decided by a single goal, with three of the five ending in overtime or a shoot-out.  Additionally, Carolina out-shot Washington in four of those five games.  So there are plenty of reasons to like the home team tonight in what clearly is a must-win for the 'Canes.  For technical support, consider that the Caps are a poor 6-13 in their last 19 playoff games, priced as an underdog of +150 or less, while Carolina cashed 67% at home this season off back to back losses.  Take Carolina.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the NY Mets over Atlanta.  Yesterday, we played on Sean Newcomb and the Braves, and easily got the $$$ in an 11-7 Atlanta win.  But we will switch gears, and back the road team in this rubber match of the 3-game series.  New York will hand the ball to its ace, Jake deGrom, who has yet to allow a run in his road starts this season (13 Innings; 0 Runs; 8 Hits, 2 Walks, 24 Strikeouts).  And deGrom has also been tough on Atlanta hitters in his career.  Over 17 starts, he has a 1.70 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP.  Last season, deGrom's W/L record suffered because his team scored three or less runs in 21 of his 32 starts.  But he's received very good run support this season (which obviously is outside a pitcher's control), as New York's scored 16 runs in his three starts.  The Mets are also a strong 3-0 this season, and 21-9 their last 30 as a road favorite.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Columbus Blue Jackets.  The Lightning went down two-games-to-none at home in this first round series with a 5-1 loss on Friday.  And, to make matters worse, Tampa's top scorer, Nikita Kucherov, will miss today's game due to a suspension for a boarding infraction.  But there are a few reasons for the fans in the Bay area not to panic.  The most obvious is that, despite their performances in the first two games, the Bolts are still the more talented team.  Tampa's success this season also wasn't primarily at home; it was also the best road team in the NHL this season, winning 30 of 41 games away from Amelie Arena.  Historically, the Lightning have performed exceptionally well here in Columbus, taking each of the last three games (including the only meeting here in the regular season), and six of the last seven.  If all of that wasn't enough, it's also worth noting that the Lightning are 8-0 in their last eight games immediately following a home loss by three or more goals, and 11-0 after not scoring 2+ goals in their previous game.  Meanwhile, Columbus is a horrid 2-8 at home this season after scoring 3+ goals in back to back games.  Finally, NHL teams have gone 27-14 following a Playoffs loss by more than three goals.  With their backs against the wall, we'll back the Lightning.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Milwaukee.  The Dodgers will try to snap their six-game losing streak on Sunday after getting swept in St. Louis, and dropping the first two games of this series to the Brewers.  Ross Stripling with get the ball for Dave Roberts' crew, and he's been super at home the past three years.  In two starts vs. the Diamondbacks and Giants this season, Stripling gave up just 3 runs in 11 2-3 innings (2.32 ERA).  He was also great at home last year, as he had a 2.50 ERA in 54 innings pitched, and in 2017, when he had a 2.23 ERA over 40.1 innings.  Finally, Los Angeles is an awesome 64-33 its last 97 day games.  Take the Dodgers behind Stripling to salvage a win in Game 3 of this series.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder swept the season series, 4-0, from Portland this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Portland because of that fact.  However, road teams (like Oklahoma City) have gone 0-8 SU/ATS since 1991 in Game 1 of a Playoff series if they weren't getting 10+ points, and they swept the regular season series!  That doesn't bode well for the Thunder.  Even worse:  Oklahoma City is a horrid 1-13 straight-up and 2-12 ATS on the road in Game 1 of a Playoff series, including 0-8 SU/ATS in the first two rounds.  Finally, Portland falls into a super 120-62 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over Minnesota.  The Twins have been installed as a big favorite behind Jose Berrios this afternoon.  But in six career starts vs. Detroit, his ERA is north of 7 runs per game.  That doesn't inspire confidence.  The Tigers have gone 8-2 (+10 games on the money line) in Zimmermann's last 10 daytime starts on the road, including two underdog wins already this season vs. the Blue Jays and Yankees.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Washington.  The Buccos will hand the ball to their talented righty, Jameson Taillon.  This season, Taillon has pitched well enough (3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), but has nothing to show for it, as the Pirates lost each of his three starts.  Admittedly, he'll have a pitching battle on his hands this afternoon since Max Scherzer is his mound opponent.  But it's hard to pass up Taillon at this price, especially since he will be working on an extra day of rest.  The Bucs are 11-2 on the road behind Taillon when he's had an extra day or two of rest, and they're 13-7 as a road underdog (+10 games on the money line) with him on the hill.  Take Pittsburgh.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Miami.  The Marlins snapped their five game losing streak yesterday with a 10-3 win over the Phillies.  But the fact remains Miami is an awful ballclub.  Today, I look for them to revert to their losing ways, as Jose Urena will take the mound for the home club.  Urena's ERA is a ghastly 8.56 (9.34 at home), with a 2.12 WHIP.  In his three starts (all losses), he's yet to make it into the 6th inning, and Miami's lost by a combined score of 26-8.  His mound opponent, Vincent Velasquez, has a career ERA of 3.18 vs. Miami in his 10 starts.  Take Philadelphia.

At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over New York.  The Islanders took Games 1 + 2 in this series, and come into the Igloo on a four-game win streak.  Unfortunately for New York, it's an awful 15-35 (minus 22 games on the money line) after winning its four previous games.  Meanwhile, the Penguins are 34-10 at home with Mike Sullivan as coach after not scoring 2+ goals in their previous game, and 12-1 off back to back road losses.  They've also won nine of 10 Playoff series with Sullivan on the bench, and won't panic just because their collective backs are against the proverbial wall.  Take the Penguins to bounce back in Game 3.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs have certainly been a great Playoff team over the years.  But they've really struggled as underdogs of +5 (or more) points when matched up against a top 2-seeded opponent.  Since 2001, they've gone just 3-21 straight-up and 7-17 ATS, including 1-14 ATS if the Spurs were not off a SU/ATS win.  That doesn't bode well for San Antonio on Saturday night.  And neither does the fact that San Antonio is an awful 0-4 straight-up the past two seasons at Denver, with its average margin of defeat being 10.5 points.  The Nuggets have not held home court advantage in a Playoff series very often.  Indeed, over the last 28 years, they've only been in that position in four series.  But in those four series, they won that first (home) game all four times, and by an average of 14.5 points per game.  When these two teams last met (just 10 days ago), the Spurs were destroyed by Denver, 113-85.  And teams playing with revenge from a loss in the regular season by 15+ points have covered just 42 of 106 Playoff games.  The biggest problem for San Antonio in this series will be the Nuggets' All-Star center, Nikola Jokic.  In the last three games played between these two teams, Jokic has gone 10-14, 10-14 and 9-10 from the field, and also pulled down 10 rebounds per game.  Jokic will prove to be too much for the Spurs to handle.  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Houston.  Seattle's off to a great offensive start this season, as it's #1 in the Major Leagues in Home Runs, Slugging Percentage, Batting Average, and Runs Scored.  Yesterday, the Mariners put up six runs vs. Houston, but it wasn't enough, as they surrendered 10 runs, themselves.  Still, that was the EIGHTH STRAIGHT game that the Mariners scored 6+ runs!  And they're 13-3 this season, including 8-2 as an underdog.  Tonight, they're a HUGE home underdog vs. Justin Verlander and the Astros.  But with an offense this proficient, the value rests squarely on the big home dog, notwithstanding the disparity on the mound.  Admittedly, Felix Hernandez is on the downside of his great career.  But he was brilliant in his lone home start this season (5.3 IP, 1 ER, 1.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).  In his last start -- on the road vs. Kansas City -- he retired just three Royals before exiting due to food poisoning, so I won't attach much significance to the fact he didn't pitch well since he was battling illness.  The Mariners bombed Verlander in the only meeting against him last season (6 runs in 2 innings), so let's take the Mariners in this home underdog role.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets.  Two southpaws will face off tonight in Atlanta.  But being lefthanded starters in the Majors is about the only thing that the Braves' Sean Newcomb and the Mets' Jason Vargas have in common.  Vargas is a 36-year-old veteran junk-ball pitcher whose fastball tops out at around 87 MPH, while Newcomb is a 25-year-old rising star who has big swing-and-miss stuff with his mid-90's heater. Newcomb is off to a great start with a 1.64 ERA in his first two outings -- wins against the Cubs and Marlins.  More importantly for tonight, in his last two starts vs. the Mets, Newcomb hasn't allowed a run, throwing 12 innings of near-perfect ball with just three hits allowed and 16 strikeouts.  Vargas' season is off to a rough start, with a 9.00 ERA in two outings (one start) allowing six runs on 12 hits in six innings.  The Braves are 8-2 in Newcomb's last 10 starts vs. teams from the NL East.  Take Atlanta.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Milwaukee.  The Dodgers' seven-game road trip got off to a great start, as they swept three games from the Colorado Rockies last weekend.  But Los Angeles hit the proverbial brick wall in St. Louis, and it was swept out of the Gateway City with four straight losses.  The Dodgers are back home in Chavez Ravine tonight, and will face the Brewers, who are also on a losing streak.  The pitching match-up greatly favors the home team, as Julio Urias' ERA is 3.11 this season, while Corbin Burnes' ERA is a ghastly 9.90.  There's no doubt Burnes has a lot of talent -- his 18 strikeouts in 10 innings pitched certainly illustrate that.  However, the main problem for Burnes this season has been the longball, as he's given up six home runs in 10 innings.  That doesn't bode well against a team like Los Angeles, which ranks 3rd in Major League Baseball with 29 home runs on the season.  L.A. is a solid 9-3 behind Urias when priced from -125 to -175.  Take the Dodgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over New York.  The Islanders took a 1-0 series lead with an exciting 4-3 overtime win on Wednesday.  I fully expect the Penguins to bounce back tonight, as they're 39-15 when playing with revenge from a loss by a single goal.  And they're also 69-38 following a game where they surrendered more than three goals.  Meanwhile, the Islanders are a horrid 51-86 after winning their three previous games.  The Penguins out-shot the Islanders in each of the three periods (17-12; 13-10; 11-9), as well as the overtime period (3-2).  And their shots in the 2nd and 3rd periods were also of a significantly higher quality than the Islanders' shots.  I look for Pittsburgh to level this series at 1 game apiece.  Take the Penguins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over New York.  The Braves have already put together win streaks of 4 and 3 games this season, and bring a 7-4 record into this series.  One starter who has not been part of a victory, though, is tonight's rookie hurler, Kyle Wright.  Atlanta lost each of his two starts (to Miami and Philly), but it was primarily due to a lack of offense (3 runs combined) in those two games rather than a poor pitching performance by Wright.  Tonight, Wright will look to get his first Major League win and he'll match-up against the Mets Zack Wheeler.  The Mets have also lost Wheeler's two starts, but in those games, Wheeler's pitching was the primary culprit, as his ERA is 10.24 this season.  New York is an atrocious 54-94 (minus 35 games on the money line) against winning ball clubs.  Take the Braves.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins.  While there may be some debate as to which team is the worst in the AL (Orioles, Royals, White Sox, etc.) there is no debate in the NL.  If the Miami Marlins don't finish with the worst record in the Senior Circuit, then just about everyone associated with the game will be surprised.  The Marlins were not a good team before they traded away what little talent they had left, and now they are just plain bad.  They have a 3-10 record and on the six-game road trip they just returned from they went 1-5 and were out-scored by 29-4 in the losses.  One bright spot has been young RHP Sandy Alcantara, who is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his first two starts.  But his six strikeouts against five walks in his 12 innings pitched indicate that he has been more lucky than good.  In his last two starts here at Marlins Park, Philadelphia RH Jake Arrieta is 2-0 with four runs allowed in 14 1/3 innings with 14 strikeouts and four walks.  Arrieta's teams are also 35-12 in their last 47 games (+15 games on the money line) as a road favorite of at least -115 when he starts.  Take Philly.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Washington.  The Nationals come into this game off back to back wins, in which they scored 10 and 15 runs, while the Pirates have been shut out in two of their last three games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Nationals.  But Washington is an awful 17-27 (minus 26 games on the money line) off back to back wins.  And, dating back to last season, Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams has tossed 6 scoreless innings in three of his last five starts (the Pirates went 4-1 in those five games).  Williams also tossed five scoreless innings in this last start vs. the Nationals, and has a 2.53 career ERA vs. them.  Take Pittsburgh.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over Detroit.  We played on the Tigers and Matt Boyd yesterday, and were rewarded with a 4-1 victory (part of a 4-0 Baseball sweep).  But the Tigers' offense has -- more often than not -- failed to significantly produce, as it's scored three runs or less in eight of its 12 games this season.  Not surprisingly, the Tigers' run production (33 runs in 12 games) ranks dead last in the Major Leagues.  Today, Detroit will hand the ball to Spencer Turnbull, who was moved into the starting rotation when Michael Fulmer sustained an injury in spring training.  Turnbull came up to the Big Leagues from the Minors late last season, and was not impressive (6.45 ERA; 1.36 WHIP).  This season, in two starts, those numbers haven't improved much (4.09 ERA; 1.27 WHIP), especially when one considers that the two teams (Royals; Blue Jays) Turnbull has faced this season rank among the bottom 10 offenses in the Majors thus far.  The Indians have won seven of Shane Bieber's last nine starts, and they are 80-46 their last 126 day games.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the LA Clippers minus the points over Utah.  The Jazz won their final home game of the season yesterday when the defeated Denver.  Meanwhile, the Clippers had the last 2 nights off following their 27-point loss at Golden State, so they'll be very well rested for this game.  Los Angeles needs to win, and also have either San Antonio or Oklahoma City lose, in order to avoid the 8th seed.  Unfortunately, both the Spurs and Thunder are favored to win their games tonight (both early starts), so the Clippers could very well have their fate sealed by the time this late night game begins.  Regardless, I expect a strong effort, as they'll enter tonight's play on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, and will no doubt want to get back into the win column prior to the start of the Playoffs.  Los Angeles is an awesome 7-0 ATS its last seven (and 13-3 ATS its last 16) games off a road defeat.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago.  The Pirates were blasted by Chicago in Game 1 of this series, 10-0, and look to bounce back today.  Pittsburgh's a super 9-1 on the road off a shut out loss, and it's also 10-3 after giving up 10+ runs.  Those facts bode well for the Buccos tonight.  The pitching match-up also is favorable.  Chicago's Yu Darvish has underperformed, as his teams are 21-24 (minus 16 games on the money line).  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Jordan Lyles comes into today's game off 5 shut out innings vs. Cincy.  Take Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Miami.  The Heat had an emotional game last night, at home, when they defeated Philly, 122-99, in Dwyane Wade's final home game.  Tonight, they have to take on the Playoff-bound Nets, who come into this season finale off back to back upset wins over Milwaukee and Indiana.  Since 1990, home teams have cashed 71% in their final game of the season, if they were off back to back upset wins.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors come into this final game of the regular season with the #1 seed locked up.  So, this game will hold little meaning to Steve Kerr's crew.  Not surprisingly, since 1990, #1-seeded Playoff teams have covered just 35.7% of their final games of the regular season, if they were on the road.  Take Memphis + the points.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Dallas.  This game is critical for the Spurs.  If they win, they'll avoid the Warriors in the 1st round of the Playoffs.  San Antonio also will play this game with a big advantage in terms of their days of rest.  The Spurs have had the last two days off, while Dallas had to play last night.  San Antonio is 96-58 ATS its last 154 vs. unrested foes.  Lay the points with San Antonio.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets over Orlando.  The Hornets will likely miss the Playoffs, as they need to defeat Orlando and also need the NY Knicks to upset Detroit in order to qualify for the post-season.  But anything's possible, so Charlotte will certainly put forth its best effort tonight.  The Hornets didn't put forth their best effort when these two teams last met on Valentine's Day.  The Magic won that game, 127-89.  But Charlotte had won the previous 13 games in this series (11-2 ATS) and I look for them to avenge that 38-point loss tonight.  Indeed, underdogs off a SU/ATS win (like Orlando), which defeated their opponent by 30+ points in the previous meeting, are a soft 28-53-1 ATS since 1990.  Take Charlotte.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over Indiana.  The Pacers have dropped nine of their last 12 games, and are locked into the #5 slot in the Eastern Conference.  With nothing to play for, we'll fade them on the road tonight at Atlanta, as the Hawks are still playing hard (even though they also have nothing to play for).  Atlanta's covered 17 of its last 23 games, including 9-3 ATS off a straight-up loss.  In contrast, the Pacers are 8-13 ATS their last 21.  Finally, Indiana falls into a negative 86-127-4 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain road teams late in the season, as well as a negative 163-215-8 ATS system which fades certain teams that won the season's first three meetings.  Take the Hawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Minnesota Twins.  Heading into the season, one area where most people thought the Mets improved themselves the most was in their bullpen.  But that thought has been proven wrong on several occasions so far this season -- including last night when the Twins plated seven runs in the last two innings and embarrassed the Mets at Citi Field, 14-8.  Let's face it -- the Twins are not a team known for their offensive prowess -- but that didn't seem to matter on Tuesday against New York ace RH Jacob deGrom.  Tonight, the home team will look to its other ace, RHP Noah Syndergaard, to get back on track.  Despite some impressive numbers -- a 0.83 WHIP, and a 6.50 K:BB ratio -- the man they call Thor has little to show for it this year (zero wins in two starts).   Syndergaard has never faced the Twins, but in his last start vs. AL competition, he blanked the Red Sox last fall with seven shutout innings in an 8-0 Mets victory.  The Twins are also just 5-11 in their last 16 inter-league contests.  Take New York.

At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over San Francisco.  We played on San Diego as a big underdog in Monday's win over Madison Bumgarner.  And we'll come right back with the Padres in this rubber match, on Wednesday afternoon.  Interestingly, this game features the same pitching match-up as the game played on March 30 (won by San Francisco, 3-2).  The Padres will hand the ball to Nick Margevicius, who has a super 1.80 ERA and 0.50 WHIP in his two starts this season.  Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Dereck Rodriguez, hasn't had the same success, as his ERA is 5.23 on the season.  And, dating back to last season, the Giants have lost eight of Rodriguez's last nine starts.  San Francisco's a poor 51-67 (minus 15 games on the money line) in afternoon games.  Take the Padres.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over Cleveland.  The Indians struggled last season vs. winning teams, and beat up on losing ball clubs.  This season, the Tribe seems to be falling into the same pattern.  Cleveland 5-1 this season vs. teams that currently have a losing record, but is just 2-2 vs. teams that are above .500.  Detroit's off to a solid 7-4 start this season, and will hand the ball to southpaw Matt Boyd.  Boyd struck out 13 Yankees in 6 1-3 innings in his last start (and also fanned 10 Blue Jays over five innings in his first start of this season).  His ERA is a solid 3.18, and this will be his first game at home this season.  Detroit's won each of Boyd's last five starts at home, and he surrendered just four earned runs in 28 1-3 innings (1.27 ERA) in those five games.  And when installed as a home underdog with Boyd on the mound, Detroit's gone 8-1 in the last nine.  Take the Tigers.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Phoenix.  We played against the Suns on Sunday, as we had our NBA Game of the Month on Houston.  And the Rockets blew out Phoenix by 36 points.  We will go against Phoenix again, tonight, as Dallas will be playing its final home game of the season (and possibly the final home game of Dirk Nowitzki's storied career).  The Mavericks are still playing hard (they won a road game at Memphis, on Sunday), and fall into an 86-42 ATS "Last Home Game" system of mine (which Houston, coincidentally, also fell into when they played Phoenix on Sunday).  Lay the points with Dallas.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over New York.  The Knicks upset the Wizards, 113-110, in their previous game.  But New York is still just 16-64 on the season, and has only won back-to-back games three times.  I love playing against really bad teams off wins.  And I won't make an exception here, as this also is New York's final road game of the season.  And they're playing a revenge-minded Bulls team they defeated just eight days ago.  New York is a poor 2-10 ATS this season in "win situation" games, where the line is 3 points or less.  And Chicago's 9-4 ATS its last 13 "Last Home Games."  Take the Bulls minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  If there's a concern surrounding the Dodgers this year, it's their starting pitching.  With Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill on the shelf, Alex Wood jettisoned via trade, and their #1 guy right now being a 24-year-old with only 25 MLB starts under his belt, there are plenty of questions to be answered.  But so far this team has flourished despite these issues with an 8-3 record and a first place standing in the NL West.  Tonight they will hand the ball to one of the guys who will have to carry the pitching load -- at least for a while -- as 29-year-old RH journeyman Ross Stripling gets his third start of the season.  Despite a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his first two, Stripling has no victories to show for his work.  A similar effort tonight to his first two outings should get him over the hump against rookie Dakota Hudson, who has been less-than-impressive in two appearances (one start) this season.  Hudson's ERA is 5.40 and his WHIP is an unsightly 2.00.  The big problem for Hudson thus far has been his propensity to give up the long ball, as he was tagged for three home runs in 4 1-3 innings by the Brewers.  The Dodgers lost a close one here yesterday, 4-3, but they are still 7-4 in the last 11 meetings at Busch Stadium.  L.A. is also 11-2 in Stripling's last 13 trips to the hill following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  Finally, the Cards are a poor 9-16 (minus 6 games on the money line) as a home underdog.  Take the Dodgers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Boston.  This is the final game of the season for both teams.  And the Celtics look to be mailing this game in.  Kyrie Irving, Marcus Morris, Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward, Aron Baynes, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford all will be in street clothes.  Washington plays with revenge from an 11-point defeat to the Celtics, in Boston, last month.  And Washington is 17-8 ATS at home when playing with revenge.  Additionally, Boston falls into a negative 32-68 ATS "Late season" system of mine which fades certain teams on the road at the end of the year.  Take Washington.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants.  It seems like only yesterday that Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner was one of the most feared starters in the game.  In fact in 2016, Bumgarner was 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA and an All Star for the fourth straight season.  And he finished each of those four with an ERA under three runs.  But two things happened over the next two seasons: 1) Bumgarner suffered multiple injuries, and 2) the Giants became a really bad baseball team.  Over the past two seasons, despite an ERA of around 3.30, Mad-Bum had just 38 total starts with a record of 10-16.  He and his team are at it again this year with a 0-2 record and 1.38 ERA in his first two starts covering 13 innings.  He will face the Padres and young LHP Eric Lauer tonight.  After a very strong Spring, Lauer has kept it going in his first two regular season starts with a 3.27 ERA in 11 innings.  The Giants' anemic offense was on display again on Sunday, losing to the Rays 3-0 and they are 3-13 in Bumgarner's last 16 starts following a team loss in the previous game.  Take the Padres.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:20 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers on the money line (currently -118), to win the game straight-up vs. Texas Tech. At the start of the season, in November, I picked the Cavaliers to win the NCAA Title, at 22-1 odds. I also selected Virginia to win this tournament when the field was announced three weeks ago. So, with the Cavaliers on the doorstep of winning their first National Championship, I am certainly not going to back away now. It's absolutely true that Virginia has been fortunate to win their last two games. They needed overtime to put Purdue away in the Elite Eight, and then benefited from an Auburn shooting foul on Kyle Guy on a failed 3-point attempt. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Red Raiders, who have covered their last five games, and against a Cavaliers squad which failed to cover vs. Auburn. But Final Four teams off a point spread loss have gone 11-0 ATS when not favored by more than 4 points, if their opponent was off an ATS win. Even better: teams (like Texas Tech) off an upset win, have gone just 28-47 ATS vs. #1 seeds, if they weren't getting 9+ points. And teams off 3 straight upset wins have cashed just 31.5% in the NCAA Tournament since 1994 vs. foes not off an ATS win. Finally, the Cavaliers have been spectacular the past two seasons off an ATS defeat (19-1 SU; 15-4 ATS). Take Virginia on the money line. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Orlando.  Boston played its best game in a month in its last time out, with a 20-point win at Indiana.  The Celtics have now won 3 in a row, and need to win at least one more game to wrap up home court advantage in the first round.  Tonight, they'll take on an Orlando Magic team which narrowly defeated the Celtics by two points in the last meeting.   Boston is 9-0 ATS when playing with revenge, if the Celtics covered their previous game by 7+ points.  And Boston's also 19-5-1 ATS at home off 3+ wins, including 10-0 ATS its last 10 if it covered its two previous games.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Phoenix.  The Rockets are still in the hunt for the #2 seed in the Western Conference, as they're currently just 1.5 games behind the Nuggets.  And Houston's been taking no prisoners lately, as they're on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak.  They've won those five games by 27, 11, 25, 32 and 24 points.  Tonight, they'll take on a short-handed Phoenix club which will be without its best player, Devin Booker.  And, regardless of who has been on the court, the Suns haven't been able to defeat Houston in any of the last 10 meetings.  For the season, the Suns are giving up 116.4 ppg.  And Houston's dominated opponents that have a defensive ppg average of 116+, as it's cashed 69.5%.  Finally, this is Houston's last home game of the season, and the Rockets fall into a 52-11 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams in their final game in front of their home faithful.  Meanwhile, the Suns fall into a negative 22-59 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road teams late in the season.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Los Angeles Angels.  Hardly anyone noticed when the Rangers signed RHP Shelby Miller to a free agent contract back in January.  Perhaps for good reason.  Over the past three seasons, the veteran starter's ERA has been 6.15, 4.09, and 10.69 respectively with a combined record of 5-16.  And the year before those three, he led the Majors with 17 losses when he was in Atlanta.  But perhaps a move back to Miller's native Texas will help resurrect his career.  Sure, his first start was nothing to write home about, but the Rangers did win the game nonetheless.  And the match-up today against RH starter Chris Stratton definitely favors the more experienced Miller.  Like Miller's signing, the trade with the Giants that brought Stratton to Anaheim barely made any ripples and Stratton could have a very tough time going from pitcher-friendly AT&T Park to Angel Stadium, even if he gets more run support here.  In his last five starts -- including his lone start in 2019 -- Stratton has allowed 21 ER in just 18 2/3 innings (a 10.12 ERA).  Take the Rangers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the OKC Thunder minus the points over Minnesota.  The Thunder are currently in the 7th slot in the Western Conference, but need to win their two final games, or they could easily fall to the 8th seed (and have to play Golden State).  This is a revenge game for OKC, which was upset by Minnesota when the two teams met last month.  That bodes well for OKC, as the Thunder are 54-35 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  the T-Wolves come into tonight's game off back to back upset wins over Dallas and Miami.  But those two victories have triggered a negative 104-175 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off back to back upsets.  Take the Thunder.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Cleveland.  The Spurs are battling OKC and the LA Clippers for the 6th, 7th and 8th seeds out West, as none of those teams wants to finish 8th and draw the Warriors in the 1st Round.  We played on San Antonio in its last game, and were rewarded with a 129-112 blowout of the Wizards.  We'll come right back with San Antone this afternoon, as the Spurs are 73-42 ATS on the road vs. Eastern Conference foes not off an ATS defeat.  With Cleveland in off a point spread win at Golden State on Friday, we'll lay the points with the Spurs.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs.  Many people predicted that the NL Central would be the most competitive division in the Majors this year.  So far, those predictions are looking very shaky. While the Brewers have exceeded almost all expectations so far, going 7-2 in their first nine games, the Cubs are way at the other end of the spectrum, with just two victories in their first eight contests.  The two rivals will square of this afternoon in Milwaukee with RHPs Kyle Hendricks (CHI) and Zach Davies (MIL) taking the mound for their respective teams.  Davies pitched pretty well in his first start, a 4-3 Brewer victory over the Reds, but he left the game after five innings with a no-decision.  Hendricks posted 14 wins last season, but he saw his ERA rise almost a half-run, and his first start of 2019 was not encouraging -- seven runs (two earned) on 10 hits with three walks in just 4 1/3 innings.  The Brewers are 4-1 in Davies last five starts vs. teams with a losing record and 11-4 in his last 15 home starts vs. teams with a losing record.  Take Milwaukee.

At 1:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over Miami.  The Braves saw their 4-game win streak go by the wayside yesterday.  But they should get back into the win column this afternoon behind Sean Newcomb.  The Braves' southpaw threw four shutout innings in his 2019 debut vs. the Cubbies, and he's 4-1 in his career vs. the Marlins with a 2.06 ERA.  Miami's an awful 48-121 (minus 39 games on the money line) as a road underdog, priced from +150 to +200, while Atlanta's 50-30 (+22 games on the money line) vs. division rivals.  Take the Braves.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the Arizona Coyotes.   This is a big game for the Jets.  A victory by Winnipeg tonight in the desert coupled with a Nashville loss would bring the Jets their first Division Title since moving north from Atlanta.  It's been a frustrating end-of-season road trip so far for the Jets as they lost their last two in Minnesota and Colorado, the latter one being a 3-2 OT defeat on Thursday.  But the good news for them is that they have dominated this series lately, taking five of the last six meetings going back to January of 2017.  It's true that the Coyotes have had a strong second half of the season, but they've still been one of the most anemic teams at home all season with just a 2.70 GPG average here at the Gila River Arena.  Moreover, the Jets are one of the best teams in the league when playing as a road favorite (4-1 in their last five as a road favorite overall, and 17-5 in their last 22 as a road favorite of -110 to -150).  And they are 46-22 in their last 68 vs. teams with a losing record.  Take Winnipeg.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Auburn.  The 5th-seeded Tigers are the hottest team left in the Tournament, with 12 straight wins, including back to back upset wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds.  But this is the point where Cinderella generally gets her glass slipper smashed.  Indeed, in the NCAA Tournament, teams seeded #5 (or worse), and installed as an underdog of +6 or less points, are 0-7 SU/ATS in the semi-final round since 1990.  And, since 1995, underdogs off back-to-back upset wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds are a poor 0-11 straight-up, and 2-9 ATS in the NCAA Semi-Finals.  Finally, #1-seeded ACC Conference teams have gone 14-3 straight-up and 13-4 ATS since 2000 in the NCAA Tourney's Final Four.  Virginia will blow out Auburn.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over Anaheim.  Oft-injured Drew Smyly pitched in the Majors for the first time since 2016 when he threw three innings of 1-run ball on Monday.  And that outing followed a largely-successful spring training for the Southpaw.  Today, he'll match up against Anaheim's Tyler Skaggs, who had a mediocre effort at Oakland in his season debut.  Dating back to last season, Skaggs has now gone six straight starts without a Quality Start.  The Angels are hopeful that Skaggs has a breakthrough season, but he underwhelmed in his Spring Training performances (7.45 ERA).  The Angels have been a poor home favorite of -150 or less (14-20, minus 11 games on the money line), so we'll take the underdog Rangers with Smyly on the hill.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over Philadelphia.  Michael Pineda threw 4 innings of 1-hit ball in his season debut last Sunday -- a 9-3 win over the Cleveland Indians.  Pineda missed all of last season, as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, so the Twins were no doubt happy with his performance.  This afternoon, Pineda will try to follow-up that game with another strong effort.  And I believe he will, as he's been strong in daytime starts (6-2 last eight), and in April games (15-9).  Meanwhile, Pineda's mound counterpart, Jake Arrieta, has been poor of late in the daytime (11-15, minus 9 games on the money line).  And Arrieta's teams have also burned money (14-20, minus 11 games on the money line) when he's worked on an extra day or two of rest.  Take Minnesota.