Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over the New York Knicks.  The Magic and Knicks are playing back to back games this weekend.  New York took the first meeting in Orlando, on Friday, 121-96, so the Magic will be playing with revenge here, at Madison Square Garden.  We'll grab the double-digits, as road teams playing with revenge from a 22-point (or worse) defeat in their previous game to the same opponent have gone 83-53 ATS since 1990, including 20-9 ATS when getting 12+ points.  Take Orlando.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals are undefeated, and outscoring their opponents by 14.16 ppg.  On the opposite end of the spectrum are the Texans, who are being outscored by 13.33 ppg.  Thus, the relative Total Scoring Margin is +27.5 ppg for Arizona, which explains why we have such a high point spread.  But in the NFL, it's tough to lay this many points, regardless of how good (or bad) a team is.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams getting more than 17 points have cashed 21 of 36 games (58.3% ATS).  But if our underdog's relative scoring margin ranged between -20 and -30.5 points, then our underdogs of more than 17 points have gone 17-1 ATS, including an outright win by the Jets (+17.5) over the Rams last December, and another outright win by the Dolphins (+17.5) over the Patriots in December 2019.  Take Houston as a huge underdog.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Las Vegas.  The Eagles last played 10 days ago, when they lost (but covered) in a Thursday Night home game vs. the defending champion, Buccaneers.  And that was the 2nd straight ATS win for Philadelphia.  Meanwhile, the Raiders started the post-Jon Gruden Era with a 34-24 upset win over division rival, Denver.  Unfortunately for the Raiders, they've covered just 29 of 84 following an upset win, including just 14 of 48 if their opponent was off a SU loss.  And Philly is an awesome 62-35-1 ATS in non-division games off a SU loss, if it wasn't favored by 3 or more points.  We'll grab the points with the road underdog Eagles.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants UNDER the total.  After giving up 44 points to Dallas and 38 points to the Los Angeles Rams (both of which average more than 400 yards per game), the Giants will no doubt be happy to face a middle-of-the-pack offensive team like Carolina.  Over the last 42 years, the Giants have gone 'under' the total 75% of the time after giving up 34+ points in back to back losses.  And they've also gone under 59% after a loss by 27+ points.  Finally, the Giants have gone 'under' in 19 of 28 games as a home underdog, including the last 6 in a row, while Carolina is 9-2 'under' as a road favorite.  This will be a very low-scoring game.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers are sitting at 5-1, with five straight wins and covers following their season-opening blowout loss vs. New Orleans.  Meanwhile, Washington is off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That's led to this number being inflated, and we'll step in and take Washington + the points.  For technical support, consider that Washington is 46-25 ATS vs. non-division foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  And the Packers have covered just 2 of 12 games vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss, if the Packers were off 4 SU/ATS wins.  Finally, NFL teams off 5 SU/ATS wins have covered just 36% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses since 1980.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Tennessee.  We played on the Titans as a home underdog last Monday night, and were rewarded with an upset win over the Buffalo Bills.  But off that victory, we will fade the Titans here, at home, as an underdog against Kansas City.  The fact of the matter is that it's tough for teams to pull off two straight upset wins, when coming off a short week following an upset win on Monday Night Football.  Indeed, consider that, since 1994, at Game 3 forward, NFL home dogs of less than seven points have gone 0-13 SU/ATS after an upset win at home on Monday Night Football the previous week.  That doesn't bode well for Tennessee here.  Likewise, if the short week was Sunday thru Thursday, those teams coming off an upset home win have gone 5-11 ATS as an underdog of less than 7 points (so, 5-24 ATS combined).  Finally, since Andy Reid has been coach of KC, it has gone 27-13 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  Take the Chiefs minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Dolphins were upset in London by the previously-winless Jaguars, 23-20, last Sunday.  Atlanta also played in London in its last game -- two weeks ago -- and it was victorious against the New York Jets.  We'll take Miami to bounce back here at home, as it's been installed as a home dog this afternoon.  And home underdogs are 134-103, 57% ATS following an upset loss, if they're playing an opponent off a SU win.  Meanwhile, the Falcons are a wallet-busting 10-22 ATS when not favored by more than 3 points against a foe off an upset defeat.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Phoenix.  The Suns went into Staples Center last night, and upset the Los Angeles Lakers, 115-105.  But off that big win, we'll fade Chris Paul & Co. tonight in Portland.  This is Phoenix's 3rd game in four nights to open the season.  And NBA teams in this season-opening scheduling situation have gone 5-20 ATS in Game 3 off an upset win, if their opponent was off a SU loss.  With the Blazers off an upset loss to Sacramento in their opener, we'll take Portland minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Chicago.  This is a tough spot for Chicago, as it is unrested after defeating New Orleans here last night.  It's also a big revenge game for Detroit, which lost at home, 94-88, to the Bulls to open the season.  We'll take Detroit in this road game, as it's 19-7 ATS its last 26 off a SU home loss, while Chicago is a money-burning 6-19 ATS at home off a SU win, if it's playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take the Pistons.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves.  Often, when a baseball team's offense is struggling, there comes a singular defining moment signaling that it has come out of its slumber.  Game 5 was such a moment for the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Not only did they get a rare post-season three-HR performance from Chris Taylor but they also saw AJ Pollock quietly hit a pair of round-trippers in the 11-2 pasting.  The Dodgers don't need to repeat that tonight in Atlanta -- they likely only need to do half as well and they will force a Game 7 here.  Max Scherzer was scratched from his start due to the same arm fatigue that has been plaguing the ace for some time, but the Dodgers have an ace in the hole in Walker Buehler.  The 27-year-old righty will be making just his second career start on short rest.  He also went on 3 days rest in Game 4 of the series vs. San Francisco, and allowed just 1 run over 4 1/3 innings.  But, clearly, Buehler has told his team he feels well enough to go.  And the fact that he only went 3 2/3 innings this past Tuesday (a 6-5 Dodgers win) will likely help him here, tonight.  Buehler has led the Dodgers to wins in his last three starts vs. Atlanta, and five of seven vs. Atlanta, overall (3.69 ERA; 1.10 WHIP).  Meanwhile, Ian Anderson has a career 5.02 ERA vs. Los Angeles, and has given up 6 runs over 7 1/3 innings this season, in two starts.  The Dodgers are 36-16 in their last 52 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.  Take Los Angeles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Toronto.  The Mavericks were blown out on the road by Atlanta, 113-87 to open its season, and will look to bounce back tonight against an unrested Raptors team.  Toronto played last night in Boston, and blew out the Celtics, 115-83.  Dallas has been tremendous over the years off a SU road loss when matched up against a foe off a win, as it's 68-27-4 ATS.  And NBA teams off a loss by 15+ points in their season opener have covered 73% vs. foes off a 15 point (or greater) victory.  Lay the points with Dallas.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over Utah.  The Utes have had an emotional two weeks, as they congregated for a memorial service 12 days ago for defensive back, Aaron Lowe, who died in late September.  On the football field, they've been resilient, as they're on a 3-game win streak to start Pac-12 play (after losing their first two Division 1 games this season to BYU and San Diego St).  They'll now try -- for the first time -- to start the Pac-12 season 4-0.  Unfortunately, teams undefeated in Pac-12 conference play, with a 2-0 (or better) record, have gone 28-47 ATS on the road vs. winning opposition, including 9-25 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins.  This is also a strong situation for Oregon State, as it will be playing with rest and revenge, off an upset loss.  Oregon State has dropped each of the past 5 meetings vs. Utah, and falls into a 61.7% ATS revenge system of mine.  Even better:  Oregon State had last week off to rest, and prepare for this game following its upset loss in Pullman, 31-24, against Washington State.  And the Beavers are 28-14 ATS in the regular season when playing with rest.  More good news for Oregon State:  its upset loss has triggered a 70% ATS system of mine which plays on certain home underdogs off an upset road defeat.  Finally, since 1980, the Beavers have cashed 71% off upset conference defeats, while the Utes are a poor 24-39 ATS as a road favorite of less than 11 points, including 1-5 ATS vs. foes off an upset defeat.  Take Oregon State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over Texas San Antonio.  The Roadrunners are ranked 20th in the country on the heels of a 7-0 start to the season.  But this will be a difficult spot for them to run their record to 8-0.  The Bulldogs should be in an ornery mood following their upset loss last week at UTEP -- a game in which they only scored 3 points, as a 6.5-point road favorite, and lost 19-3 (failing to cover by 22.5 points).  But home underdogs have covered 60.2% over the last 42 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS win, if our home underdog was upset in its previous game, and failed to cover the spread by more than 22 points in that defeat.  Louisiana Tech is a solid 19-6 ATS off an upset loss, while the Roadrunners are a wallet-breaking 0-12 ATS as a favorite priced from -6 to -11 points.  Take Louisiana Tech + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over East Carolina.  After starting the season with a loss to cross-state rival, Texas Tech, the Cougars have ripped off five straight wins, and they've covered four of those games.  And the last two both were blowouts on the road, as Houston won by 35 as a 3-point road underdog vs. Tulsa, and then went into New Orleans to trounce Tulane, 40-22, as a 6.5-point favorite.  Houston did have last weekend off to prepare for this game, and that bodes well for Houston here, as rested home favorites, with a .666 (or better) record, have covered 64.7% of conference games over the last 42 years off back to back road wins, in which they covered the spread by 10+ points.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Oklahoma State.  The Cyclones are 4-2 on the season, as they lost to Iowa in Week 2, and Baylor in Week 4.  But they also outyarded Iowa, 339-173, and outyarded Baylor 479-282.  Unfortunately, the Cyclones committed 5 turnovers in those two game combined, which sealed their fate.  The good news for Matt Campbell's men is that they've not turned it over in any of their last two games.  And if that disciplined play holds on Saturday, then they should hand the 6-0 Cowboys their first loss of the season.  We'll lay the points with Iowa State, as it falls into a 97-52 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams, favored by more than 4 points on home or neutral fields against a .500 (or better) conference foe, that own an inferior record than their opponent.  Additionally, the Cowboys fall into negative 25-64, 62-126 and 28-78 systems following their upset win at Texas last week.  Take Iowa State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks over UCLA.  The Bruins return home off a successful stint of road games, as they won at Arizona, 34-16, and also won at Washington, 24-17, to move to 3-1 SU/ATS in Pac-12 play.  Oregon sits a half-game back, as the Ducks are 2-1 SU (but 0-3 ATS) in conference games after downing California, 24-17, in Eugene last Friday.  We'll take the Ducks, as they're 17-6 ATS in Conference road games, if they owned a worse SU/ATS conference record than their opponent.  Additionally, the Bruins are 33% ATS since 1980 in Pac-12 games off back to back SU/ATS conference road wins.  And Oregon also falls into a 258-164 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .800 (or better) teams against foes off a win.  Take the Ducks to blow out UCLA.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets plus the points over Western Michigan.  The Rockets are 3-4 after dropping back to back MAC Conference games to Northern Illinois and Central Michigan.  And Toledo was favored by 13.5 and 5 points, respectively, in those games.  The good news, though, for the Rockets is that they're 17-2 SU and 12-4 ATS off back to back losses, if they weren't an underdog of more than 5 points.  Even better:  Toledo falls into a 65.4% ATS MAC angle, which plays on Mid-American Conference home dogs off back-to-back ATS losses, if they also lost their previous game SU, while their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the Rockets to bounce back on Saturday afternoon.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ole Miss Rebels minus the points over LSU.  The Rebels won last week at Tennessee, 31-26, but their QB, Matt Corral, got banged-up in the process.  It's unclear whether Corral will line up under center this afternoon.  But, regardless, we will lay the points with Lane Kiffin's men.  The Tigers stunned Florida, 49-42, as a double-digit home underdog last week.  Unfortunately, underdogs have only covered 37% over the past 42 years off an upset win as a double-digit home dog the previous week, if matched up against foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take Mississippi minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Purdue.  The Badgers come into this game off back to back wins over Illinois and Army, while the Boilermakers upset the then-undefeated Hawkeyes in their previous game.  We'll fade Purdue off that upset win, as they fall into a negative 28-99 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off big upsets.  Even better:  the Badgers have won 14 straight games vs. Purdue, and have covered their last 8 here in West Lafayette, and have also covered 7 straight when not favored by 17+ points.  Take Wisconsin to blow out the Boilers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats over Texas Tech.  The Wildcats have dropped three straight, including a 13-point loss to Iowa State last weekend.  But Kansas State is super 36-20 ATS in conference road games when the line was 7 points or less.  And it's 20-4 ATS in Big 12 games off a double-digit conference loss.  Meanwhile, Texas Tech comes into this game off a 41-14 blowout of Kansas.  But the Red Raiders are an awful 2-12 ATS off an ATS win, if they weren't getting double-digits.  Take the Wildcats on Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Army.  The Demon Deacons are 6-0 following their 40-37 victory at Syracuse two weeks ago.  They'll now take on a Black Knights squad which lost to Wisconsin, 20-14, last Saturday.  The extra week of rest will no doubt have served Dave Clawson's men well, given that they utilized that time to prepare for Army's flexbone triple option run game.  We'll lay the points with the rested Demon Deacons against the unrested Black Knights.  For technical support, consider that undefeated, rested teams have gone 130-93 ATS vs. unrested, non-conference foes, if our rested team wasn't getting more than 3 points.  Also, Wake Forest is 9-1 ATS off a win, when playing with rest, while Army is a poor 4-12 ATS when priced as an underdog of +3 to +14 points vs. rested foes.  Take the Demon Deacons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Utah Jazz.  Both of these teams come into this game off season-opening wins.  The Kings upset Portland, 124-121, while Utah routed Oklahoma City, 107-86.  We'll back Sacramento as a home underdog in its home opener, as rested, winning underdogs have cashed 64% of their home openers the past 42 years, if they were off an upset win in their previous game.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Colorado State.  The Rams come into this game off back to back blowout wins over San Jose (32-14) and New Mexico (36-7), while the Aggies are on an 0-3 ATS losing streak.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Rams minus the short number.  But NCAA home dogs, with a .666 (or better) record, have covered 60.4% of conference games over the past 42 years off 3 point spread defeats.  Take Utah State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Denver.  The Nuggets won their season opener at Phoenix, on Wednesday.  And that was a big revenge win for Denver, as the Suns swept the Nuggets out of the Playoffs last season with a 4-0 series win in the quarter-finals.  We'll take the Spurs as a road underdog, as Denver's a poor 37-64-1 ATS in the regular season as a favorite of more than 3 points off a road upset win.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Chicago.  The Bulls enter tonight's game off a 94-88 victory over the Detroit Pistons.  We'll grab the points with New Orleans, as Chicago is 35-57 ATS when favored by 3 (or more) points at home off a SU win.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets over the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Nets were throttled, 127-104, in their opener by Milwaukee, while Philly blew out New Orleans, 117-97.  But we'll go against the 76ers in their home opener, as they've covered just one of seven home openers vs. an opponent off a SU loss.  And the Nets are a solid 25-7 ATS vs. .500 (or better) opposition when priced from -4 to +6.5 points, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. division rivals.  Take the Nets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Washington.  When these two teams last met, the Wizards bounced the Pacers out of the playoffs with a 142-115 blowout in the Play-In round.  I look for Indiana to avenge that playoff ouster tonight with an upset win.  The Pacers lost a tough one in Charlotte on Wednesday, as they were a 1.5-point road favorite, but blew a 23-pont lead, and lost by a single point, 123-122.  But Indiana is a super 76-42 ATS as a road underdog (or PK) off an upset loss.  Meanwhile, the Wizards upset Toronto, 98-83 on Wednesday.  But the Wizards are a wallet-busting 18-45 ATS at home vs. a revenge-minded foe, if they were off an upset win.  And they're 37-64 ATS off an upset win by more than 10 points.  Take the Pacers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Charlotte.  The Cavaliers are a perfect 4-0 as a home underdog in their home openers since 2010, and they won each of those four games outright.  Meanwhile, the Hornets are a horrid 2-11 SU and 3-9-1 ATS in their road openers, including 1-6-1 ATS if their opponent wasn't off a win.  And Charlotte's 7-14-1 ATS its last 21 vs. the Cavaliers.  Take Cleveland.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors upended the Los Angeles Lakers, 121-114, on Tuesday night.  But off that upset win, we will fade the Warriors here against the Clippers.  Golden State is an ugly 0-10-1 its last 11 off an upset win, if priced in its current game from -2 to -6 points.  Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 11-0 ATS its last 11 on the road vs. a foe off an upset win.  And LA is also 5-1 ATS in its last six season openers.  Take the Clippers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in tonight's game between Denver and Cleveland.  These two teams were both upset last Sunday.  Denver had its worst defensive effort of the season, as it gave up 34 to Las Vegas in a 10-point loss.  And Cleveland's defense was even worse, as it was wrecked by Arizona, 37-14, in a 23-point upset home loss.  But off those upset losses, I expect both teams to play much better defense tonight.  Indeed, Denver is 14-3 UNDER its last 17 off an upset loss, while Cleveland is 23-13 UNDER its last 36 off an upset loss.  And matchups between two teams off upset losses, in which they each gave up 28+ points, have gone UNDER the total 77.4% over the past 33 seasons, including a perfect 5-0 UNDER since last season.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Milwaukee got its title defense off to a winning start with a blowout of Brooklyn on Tuesday night.  But off that win, we will fade Milwaukee tonight, as NBA defending champs have covered just 36.8% in their first road game of the season following a win at home in their previous game.  Moreover, the Heat are 9-4 ATS their last 13 home openers, and they're 11-4 their last 15 regular season games when installed as a home underdog vs. a foe off a win.  Grab the points with Erik Spoelstra's men tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves.  Down to their last gasp, the Dodgers will certainly pull out all the stops in what could be the last game at Dodgers Stadium this year.  The task may seem even more difficult because the Los Angeles lineup will be facing LH Max Fried tonight.  Fried pitched six quality innings in Game 1 to get things started for the Braves.  However, that start was at home.  L.A. will be happy to know that for his career, Fried is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in two starts covering seven innings here at Dodger Stadium.  And notwithstanding last night's win, Atlanta is still a miserable 1-10 its last 11 here at Chavez Ravine.  Dave Roberts has announced that his veteran RH, Joe Kelly, will get the start for the Dodgers tonight.  At home this season, Kelly has 2.33 ERA, and opponents are batting .133 against him.  After Kelly, it will no doubt be a myriad of relievers on the mound for the Dodgers.  The Dodgers are 28-11 after allowing more than 7 runs in their previous game, while Atlanta is a poor 22-29 (minus 20.6 net games on the moneyline) after scoring more than 7 runs in its previous game.  With their backs against the wall, we'll take the Dodgers tonight.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox.  The Astros have gotten steamrolled the past two games, 9-5 and 12-3 by Boston.  So, in this critical Game 4, they'll turn to the veteran RH, Zack Greinke, with the hope that he can summon his past post-season experience to get them through this rough pitching patch.  It's true that Greinke's best days are behind him.  But his road ERA this season was 3.45, which compares favorably to Nick Pivetta's 5.40 ERA here at Fenway Park.  Moreover, Pivetta has never started a playoff game in his career, while Greinke has 19 starts in the post-season to his credit.  And the Red Sox have lost six of Pivetta's last seven starts, with their only win coming against the cellar-dwelling Baltimore Orioles.  And Pivetta gave up 3 runs and 7 hits over 3 2/3 innings in that ball game (in which Boston was a -280 favorite).  Indeed, the Red Sox have lost Pivetta's LAST 8 starts in which Boston wasn't favored by -250 (or more).  Take the Astros.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Last season, we cashed the Milwaukee Bucks (at 13-2 odds) to win the NBA title, and also cashed our preseason pick on Baylor (at 12-1 odds) in College Basketball to win the NCAA championship.  This season, our preseason NBA pick is on the Brooklyn Nets (currently at +260 at BetOnline) to win the title.  And we'll take them in this season-opening game against the team which ousted them from the quarterfinals last season.  But it was the narrowest of victories for Mike Budenholzer's men, as Kevin Durant was just two inches in front of the three-point arc on what turned out to be a game-tying (rather than a game-winning) shot.  However, Brooklyn outscored Milwaukee in that 7-game series by 2.86 ppg, and were (in my eyes) the better team, even in defeat.  But I was more than happy to have the Bucks win that series, and eventually the NBA title.  Now, it's a new season, and we'll take James Harden & Co. to avenge that playoff loss, and get Brooklyn off to a 1-0 start.  Take the Nets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves won the first two games of this series at home, something that's been more difficult to do in this year's post-season than in most past ones.  This afternoon the series swings back to Los Angeles for what would appear to be a must-win situation for the Dodgers -- at least based on the way the Braves are playing right now.  The good news is that in the third game of this series the Dodgers get to bring out RHP Walker Buehler, who is 3-0 in his six career starts vs. the Braves with a 3.06 ERA.  Buehler finished the regular season with a 16-4 record and 2.47 ERA in a league-best 33 starts.  RH Charlie Morton goes to the hill for the road team, which is an awful 0-6 this season as a road underdog of +150 or more.  Morton did go 14-6 this season, with a 3.34 ERA.  But the Braves lost all three of his starts when they were a road underdog.  The mid-afternoon start time also bodes well for Los Angeles.  In six daytime starts this season, Buehler went 5-1 (.833) with a 2.45 ERA.  Morton, on the other hand, did not fare quite so well, going 1-2 with 4.17 ERA in seven afternoon starts (vs. 13-4 and 3.14 in 26 starts under the lights).  And in his career, his teams are a wallet-breaking 38-51 (minus 21.4 net games on the moneyline) in the daytime.  With the Dodgers a reliable 92-47 (+17 net games) off a loss (including 22-7 with Buehler), and 30-16 (+5.1 net games) off back-to-back losses, we'll take Los Angeles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Tennessee returns home off back to back road games vs. the Jets and Jaguars, which they split with a loss at New York, and a 37-19 victory at Jacksonville last Sunday.  The Bills also won last week, as they upset the defending AFC champion, Kansas City Chiefs, 38-20, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  But off that huge upset win over the team that knocked it out of last year's playoffs, we will fade Buffalo on the road against Tennessee.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams off 18-point (or greater) upset wins have cashed just 35% on the road vs. foes off a win.  Even worse, teams off upset wins have cashed just 20% on Monday Night Football since 1980 as road favorites vs. non-division foes.  Meanwhile, home teams have gone 73-38-3 ATS on Monday Night Football, if they were off a road win, and were not laying more than 5 points.  Take the Titans as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys are on a 4-game win streak after winning 3 home games vs. Philadelphia, Carolina, and the New York Giants.  But from Week 3 forward, the Eagles are 1-3, the Panthers are 1-2, and the Giants are 1-2.  So, not exactly "Murderer's Row."  That's not to imply the Cowboys are playing poorly -- they're not.  But the fact that Dallas has rolled up 41, 36 and 44 points over those last three home games should be taken with a boulder of salt.  They'll now travel to Foxborough to take on a New England team which is giving up just 18.4 ppg (again, a far cry from teams like Philadelphia (25.33) and the Giants (27.8)).  We'll grab the points with New England, as teams (like Dallas) off back to back home wins, are 38% ATS in the regular season after scoring more than 30 points in back to back games.  And > .750 NFL teams playing away from home, without the better defense, have cashed just 37%.  Meanwhile, Bill Belichick's men are 14-0 SU and 12-1-1 ATS at home when not favored by 7+ points vs. an .800 (or better) opponent.  Finally, New England also falls into 363-266, 240-147 and 121-57 ATS systems of mine.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals are riding high with a 5-0 record, but have been installed as an underdog against the 3-2 SU/ATS Browns, who lost a heartbreaker to the Chargers, 47-42, last Sunday.  The Browns easily could also be 5-0, as their other loss was to the defending AFC champion Chiefs, 33-29, in Kansas City.  I look for the Browns to rebound big here, as teams off losses, in which they scored 37+ points, have gone 37-13 ATS vs. .300 (or better) foes, including a perfect 12-0 ATS if our 'play-on' team (here, Cleveland) owned an ATS record of .550 (or better).  That bodes well for the Browns here.  As does the fact that they're 5-0 ATS their last five when favored vs. the NFC.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Ravens were my preseason choice (at 16-1 odds) to win this year's Super Bowl, and they've won three of four nail-biters (along with one blowout vs. Denver) to move to 4-1 on the season.  Also 4-1 is Los Angeles, which has lost to just Dallas in its first five games.  Los Angeles has won and covered its last three, but road teams off back-to-back SU/ATS wins are a poor 69-102 ATS in the regular season vs. .800 (or better) teams.  Additionally, the Ravens are 30-16 ATS at home vs. winning teams when the Ravens were off an ATS loss, and not favored by 3+ points.  Take Baltimore.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack minus the points over Hawaii.  The Rainbow Warriors had last weekend off following their 27-24 upset home win on October 2nd vs. Fresno, while Nevada won by 27 here, in Reno, vs. New Mexico State.  This will be Hawaii's 3rd trip to the mainland this season, and they were smashed in the first two:  44-10 by UCLA, and 45-27 by Oregon State.  Over the years, I've loved playing against Hawaii on the mainland in certain situations, and this Saturday's game in Reno fits many of Hawaii's worst point spread roles, including this 100% perfect angle.  Since 1980, Hawaii is 0-16 ATS on the road, when rested, and installed as an underdog of +20 or less points.  Even better:  double-digit underdogs with a .363 (or better) record are a poor 35-73 ATS off an upset win as a double-digit dog, if their opponent was off back to back wins.  Lay the points with Nevada.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes over Arizona State.  We had a huge play on the Sun Devils last Friday, and won big in a 28-10 blowout win over Stanford.  That was ASU's third straight win and cover.  But this hot streak sets them up in a negative 28.4% system of mine which goes against certain teams that are off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Utah also had an impressive breakout performance last Saturday, as it went into Los Angeles, and upset Southern Cal, 42-26, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  And that moved Utah's conference record to 2-0 this season.  So this "battle of unbeatens" will be a key game in the race for the conference championship.  We'll go against the Sun Devils on the road, as Pac-12 Conference teams, with a 3-0 (or better) conference record, have cashed just 17 of 53 road games vs. .500 (or better) conference foes off a win.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons + the points over Boise State.  Air Force is a solid 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS after winning (and covering) at home vs. Wyoming last Saturday.  They'll now travel to Boise to take on a 3-3 Broncos squad.  Last week, the Broncos stunned the then-undefeated BYU Cougars, 26-17, as a 6.5-point road underdog.  But off that upset win, we will look for a letdown by the Broncos on Saturday.  Indeed, that upset win was somewhat fortunate, given that BYU outyarded Boise, 413-312, but were doomed by four turnovers.  Last season, the Broncos went into Colorado Springs, and blew out the Falcons, 49-30.  Unfortunately, since 1980, .500 (or worse) teams are a soft 41% ATS off an upset win, when matched up against a revenge-minded foe off a double-digit win.  Additionally, teams off upset wins, as 6-point (or greater) dogs, over unbeaten teams that were 5-0 (or better) have cashed just 42% over the last 40 years vs. .500 (or better) teams.  Take the points with the Air Force.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners + the points over Louisiana Tech.  We played on the Miners two weeks ago, and were rewarded with a 28-21 win and cover vs. Old Dominion.  The Miners are putting a nice season together, as they're 5-1 straight-up.  But they continue to be undervalued by the oddsmakers.  They're a home underdog on this Saturday vs. the 2-3 Bulldogs.  And we will happily grab the points with UTEP, as it falls into a 311-208 'momentum' angle of mine which plays on certain home teams with a win percentage greater than .750.  Moreover, home dogs have cashed 60.4% since 1990 if they owned a better record than their opponent, and were off back to back wins.  Take Texas El Paso + the number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves.  The 2021 NLCS will feature the same two teams who met in this series a year ago.  Game 1 is being played in Atlanta despite the fact that the Dodgers finished the season 18 games better than the Braves in the won-lost column.  Game 1 will also feature one of the hottest starters in all of the Majors in the second half of the season in LH Max Fried.  Since the break, Fried went 8-2 with a 1.74 ERA in 14 second half starts covering 83 innings.  Los Angeles will counter with a bullpen game, and will start things off with Corey Knebel.  The Dodgers used this strategy on Thursday in their Game 5 win vs. the San Francisco Giants, and Knebel pitched a scoreless inning.  He's made five starts this season, and has allowed just one earned run in those games.  Los Angeles has won four of those five starts.  Meanwhile, Fried hasn't had much success vs. the Dodgers, as he's 1-3 in seven starts, with a middling 3.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  And the Braves are a wallet-busting 32-37 (but minus 20.6 net games on the moneyline) at home off 3+ wins.  Finally, LA is 33-15 (+7.5 net games) vs. lefties.  Take Los Angeles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.  

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Mississippi.  The Volunteers come into this game vs. Mississippi off back to back blowout wins.  They destroyed Missouri, 62-24, in Columbia, and then smashed South Carolina, 45-20, last week, as a 10.5-point home favorite.  Tennessee is now a small home underdog.  And I love playing on home dogs that can score.  Dating back to 1983, underdogs of more than 2 points have cashed 57% at home if they averaged more than 41 points per game.  Ole Miss can also score, as evidenced by its 52-51 victory last week against Arkansas.  But Ole miss is also 1-8-1 ATS its last 10 after scoring 49+ points, if its current opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Volunteers + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Colorado State.  It's impossible to be worse than the Lobos have been "in Vegas" this season, as they're 0-6 ATS.  But faithful followers know that I've never shied away from playing on bad teams.  And I won't here, as New Mexico falls into a system which has cashed 58% since 1984, which plays on winless ATS teams, with an 0-5 (or worse) ATS record, against foes that didn't fail to cover the spread by 10+ points in their previous game.   And New Mexico also falls into a 59-18 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off 3+ ATS losses, as well as an 81-37 ATS angle of mine which takes certain teams off 5+ ATS losses.  Take the Lobos as a big home underdog.

At 4:20 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox.  What a season this could turn out to be for a player who was an unheralded 23-year-old when he made his debut last September.  Luis Garcia came into this past Spring pretty much unheard of.  But now the Astros' second-year rookie starter stands to be one of the finalists for the AL Rookie of the Year award.  And the 24-year-old RH would almost certainly trade that for a trip to the World Series in his first full season in the Majors.  Garcia finished the season with an 11-8 record, 3.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 30 games (28 starts) covering 155 1/3 innings.  It won't be easy this afternoon against the Red Sox and their #1 starter, Nathan Eovaldi, but all season Garcia has defied the odds.  This start lines up well for Garcia who was 6-5 with a 2.39 ERA in 15 home games (13 starts) vs. 5-3 and 4.24 in 15 road starts.  Among Garcia's victims was Boston back on June 1 when he spun seven strong innings allowing one run on five hits in a 5-1 Astros victory.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Texas A&M.  Last week, we played on the Aggies as an 18-point underdog vs. Alabama, and easily got the $$$ with an outright win vs. the defending national champions.  But off that big victory, we will fade the Aggies today away from home.  Indeed, Texas A&M is a horrid 11-26 ATS on the road vs. a .500 (or better) foe following a home victory at College Station.  And it's 1-4 ATS its last five vs. Missouri.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are 14-3 ATS as a home underdog, priced from +7 to +15 points vs. a foe off a SU win.  And, finally, NCAA teams are an ugly 0-8 ATS away from home following a home win over the defending national champions, if they're priced from -8 to -18 points.  Take the home underdog Tigers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Michigan State.  Mel Tucker's Spartans are a spotless 6-0 on the season, and they're 5-0-1 ATS.  But we will fade Michigan State as a road favorite in Bloomington against a rested Hoosiers squad.  Indiana last took the field against the then-undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions, and was shut out, 24-0 (coincidentally, the same score by which Indiana defeated Michigan State in East Lansing last season).  But over the last 42 years, underdogs of +3 (or more) points off shutout home losses have cashed 63.3% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Indeed, Michigan State was in this exact same situation last season following its 24-0 home loss to Indiana, and rebounded to upset Northwestern, 29-20, as a 13.5-point underdog (when Northwestern was 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS).  Take Indiana to pull off the mild upset.  Grab the points with the Hoosiers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over San Diego State.  The Aztecs are 5-0 on the season, with ATS wins in each of their last four games.  In contrast, the Spartans are scuffling, with a 3-3 record, but five straight ATS losses in their last five.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Aztecs.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams playing conference games away from home are a soft 67-97 ATS if they're off a win, and 3+ ATS wins, while their foe is off 3+ ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for San Diego State as a huge road favorite tonight.  Nor does the fact that undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record, are a wallet-busting 29-59 ATS away from home, if they're off back to back ATS wins, and favored by 7+ points against an opponent with a .444 (or better) record.  Take the Spartans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants.  Unlike Corbin Burnes who told the Brewers he was physically unable to pitch on three days rest when his team needed a win on Tuesday, Dodgers ace Walker Buehler said, "hand me the ball."  The results for those two teams were as you might expect, with the Brewers going home and the Dodgers going back to San Francisco for Game 5 tonight.  And with the day off, L.A. gets the services of the Major League wins leader, LHP Julio Urias, on regular (four days) rest.  Urias pitched Game 2 here in San Francisco and not only was the 25-year-old his usual dominant self, but the Dodgers' offense responded in a big way, scoring nine runs on the way to an easy 9-2 victory.  Lest you think Urias' inexperience might get to him tonight in this all-or-nothing situation, consider that he has already appeared in 19 MLB post-season games covering 42 2/3 innings, including four starts.  His 2.68 playoff ERA is lower than his regular season number (3.09).  I won't step in front of this battle-tested southpaw, as Urias has won 12 consecutive decisions, and the Dodgers are 16-2 his last 18 starts, including 12-0 his last 12.  Take L.A.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  We played on Philly last week as a road dog at Carolina, and got the cash with an upset win.  They're now a home underdog vs. the defending Super Bowl champs, and we'll grab the points with Philly tonight.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs are a horrid 0-13 ATS following a home win, when favored on the road by 7 or less points vs. non-division foes, provided their opponent wasn't off back-to-back losses.  Even better, home underdogs of +1.5 (or more) points, off a SU road win, have gone 142-87 ATS vs. foes off a SU home win.  Take Philadelphia + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Navy.  The Tigers enter tonight's game off 3 SU/ATS losses, while Navy has covered the point spread in each of its last three games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the underdog Midshipmen here, especially given Navy's vaunted road ATS mark over the last 33 seasons.  But consider that NCAA favorites of 3+ points have covered the spread 64% since 1980 off 3+ losses, if they're playing an opponent off 3 ATS wins.  Additionally, Memphis is a terrific 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS as a favorite of 7+ points off back to back losses, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. conference foes.  Take the Tigers to blow out Navy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants.  This is an action play; please do not list pitchers.  The Dodgers were the pre-season favorites to repeat as World Series Champions, while the Giants were 80-1 to win the World Series, but the tables have turned, and the Dodgers are on the brink of elimination.  However, the Dodgers were also on the brink when they played a one-game Wild Card elimination against the Cardinals at home last Wednesday.  We played on Los Angeles in that one, and they came through that night.  Instead of Max Scherzer, it will be an "all hands on deck" game, which will include Walker Buehler and Tony Gonsolin, among others taking the mound for the defending champs.  Buehler is 7-2 lifetime vs. the Giants, and has given up just 4 earned runs in his four home starts vs. SF, covering 25 2/3 innings.  Meanwhile, Gonsolin may not have Buehler's pedigree, but he has been sneaky good this season, posting a 4-1 record and 3.23 ERA in 15 games.  The 27-year-old will likely follow Buehler, and only will have to throw a few innings tonight, as the Dodgers will have plenty of other options to fill the nine innings.  Gonsolin was 5-2 with a 2.33 ERA here at home this season (vs. 5-3 and 3.34 on the road).  And Los Angeles has won 16 of its last 17 home games.  Take the Dodgers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns + the points over Appalachian State.  The Cajuns are 4-1, and off back to back road wins over Georgia Southern and South Alabama.  They're also a home underdog tonight.  We'll grab the points with Louisiana, as .800 (or better) teams (at Game 6 forward), off back to back wins, have cashed 57.3% since 1980, including a solid 68.5% if their opponent was off a double-digit win, and a double-digit cover.  With Appalachian State, indeed, off a 45-16 blowout of Georgia State (as a 10-point favorite), our 68.5% tightener is satisfied.  Lafayette is also a solid 19-5 ATS since 2010 in Sun Belt Conference games, priced from -1.5 to +9 points, including a perfect 6-0 ATS at home.  Grab the points with the Cajuns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bills will enter Arrowhead on quite a roll, as they've scored 35, 43 and 40 points in their last three games -- all blowout wins by more than 21 points.  But that's not necessarily a good thing, as road underdogs are a soft 24-42-2 ATS after 3 SU/ATS wins, in which they scored more than 95 point combined.  And road teams off three SU/ATS wins by 20+ points are a horrid 2-15-1 ATS if they weren't favored by more than 7 points in their current game.  It's been years since the Chiefs have been priced this inexpensive at home (with a healthy Patrick Mahomes), and we will take full advantage.  Indeed, Kansas City is 46-19 ATS at home if it wasn't off a SU/ATS loss, and it wasn't favored by 3 or more points.  Take the Chiefs to blow out Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Houston Astros.  Having been soundly beaten in the first two games of this ALDS -- a combined score of 15-5 -- this pretty much becomes a must-win situation for the Chicago White Sox in Game three.  The good news is they're at home and they have their young gun RHP Dylan Cease going in his second career post-season appearance (first start).  The important thing to note is that the Sox were able to line up Cease's first playoff start here at home.  It's well known by now that during the regular season, the 25-year-old has had one of the strongest home-field biases in the game.  In 16 starts here at Guaranteed Rate Field, Cease is 6-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP compared to 7-5 and 4.69 with a 1.33 WHIP in 16 road starts.  The other good thing about coming home is that the Sox are 4-1 in the last five meetings with the Astros here in Chicago, and 22-10 their last 32 at home with double-revenge.  Despite all of their success lately, the Astros are 0-5 in their last five road games vs. teams with a winning record, and a poor 20-33 (minus 14.3 net games) on the road in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125.  Take the White Sox.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over Arizona.  Last week, the Cardinals stunned the Los Angeles Rams, 37-20, as a road underdog at SoFi Stadium.  But off that upset win, we will fade the unbeaten Cardinals as a home favorite.  Indeed, the Cardinals are a wallet-breaking 7-20 ATS as a home favorite, including 0-7 ATS vs. a division rival.  And they're 8-28 ATS at home vs. a foe not off a point spread win, including 0-10 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss!  Meanwhile, the 49ers are a reliable 37-12 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against a .500 (or better) foe.  Finally, the Cardinals fall into a negative 24-62 ATS system of mine which goes against certain home favorites off upset wins, while the 49ers fall into 363-264 and 132-69 ATS angles that play on certain teams with inferior scoring margins than their opponent.  Take San Francisco.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Cleveland Browns/Los Angeles Chargers game.  The Browns held their two previous opponents -- Chicago and Minnesota -- to 6 and 7 points, respectively.  But neither the Bears nor the Vikings will be in the post-season.  Los Angeles, on the other hand, is looking every bit like a Super Bowl contender.  The Chargers' offense has tallied 30 and 28 points its last two games, and will put pressure on the Browns' defense.  Justin Herbert has completed 69% of his passes for 1178 yards and nine TDs.  I also believe Cleveland will find success on the ground behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, as the Chargers rank 29th against the run, and are giving up 140 yards per game, on a horrid 5.26 yards per carry!  For technical support, consider that NFL teams have gone OVER the total 61.1% of the time when the line was greater than 46 points, if they gave up 15 (or less) points combined over the previous two games.  Take the OVER!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Philadelphia Eagles/Carolina Panthers game.  After giving up just 6 and 17 points in their first two games, the Eagles' defense has been leaky of late, as it's given up 41 and 42 points the past two weeks -- both double-digit losses.  Likewise, Carolina's defense surrendered 36 points last week to Dallas (in a 36-28 loss), after giving up just 7 and 9 its two previous games.  I look for both defenses to return to form on this Sunday, and play much better than in recent weeks.  For technical support, consider that the Eagles have gone 'UNDER' in 56 of 80 games after playing a game where 58+ points were scored.  And NFL games have gone under the total 58% since 1985 if both teams were off a game where more than 60 points was scored.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos.  After starting the year with an impressive 23-16 win over (arguably) the AFC's most impressive team, the Steelers have stumbled badly, with three consecutive defeats to the Raiders, Bengals and Packers.  And they scored just 17, 10 and 17 points in those three games.  The good news here is that Pittsburgh tends to bounce back at home off back-to-back losses, as they're 37-17 straight-up, 33-21 ATS, and 34-18-2 OVER the total.  Pittsburgh's also 66-40 OVER the total when the line has been less than 40 points.  Likewise, the Broncos also stumbled on offense last week, as they lost 23-7 to Baltimore.  But the Broncos are 14-1-1 OVER the total after losing a game in which less than 33 total points were scored.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New England Patriots/Houston Texans game.  The Texans were shut out last week, 40-0, by the Buffalo Bills.  So, clearly, their offense behind rookie QB Davis Mills is a mess right now.  Of course, the oddsmakers have made their adjustments, and the over/under line for this game is more than 7 points lower than either game each of these teams played last week.  From my perspective, the oddsmakers have over-reacted, and there's significant value in taking the OVER in this game.  For technical support, consider than NFL games have gone OVER the total 65.5% over the last 42 years, if both teams were coming into the game off an UNDER, and both teams had over/under lines more than 6 points greater in their previous game than the current game.  Take the OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Carolina Panthers.  The Eagles come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, with each of their two previous defeats coming by double-digits.  But I love the Eagles this Sunday afternoon, as teams off 3+ losses have covered 60% vs. winning foes, if our team wasn't getting 4+ points.  And Philly is 39-21 ATS on the road off back to back defeats, including 22-8 ATS when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread less than 4 points.  Take the Eagles.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Nevada.  This will be the 4th time the Aggies have been an underdog of more than points this season.  And they covered the spread in the first three games.  Last week, the Wolf Pack stunned Boise, 41-31, as a road underdog.  Unfortunately, Mountain West home favorites (or PK) have covered just 8 of 36 after an upset road win.  Also, Nevada's covered just 28% since 1980 as favorites off an upset road win.  Grab the points with New Mexico State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Tulsa.  Tulsa was smashed here, at home, by Houston, 45-10, as a 3-point favorite last Friday.  And the Golden Hurricane are once against installed as a home favorite.  Unfortunately, home teams without a winning record have generally not bounced back off double-digit SU (and double-digit ATS) losses, as they've cashed just 38% of conference games over the last 42 years.  That doesn't bode well for the Golden Hurricane on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that Tulsa is 11-44 ATS as a home favorite, priced from -15 to +10 points, if they lost their previous game by more than 5 points.  Grab the points with the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over Alabama.  We played against the Aggies last Saturday, and got the $$$ with Mississippi State, which upset A&M as a 7-point underdog.  That was the 2nd straight loss for the Aggies, whose impressive 3-0 start is now largely forgotten.  The Aggies, though, are a super 13-1 ATS as home dogs of more than 2 points when playing a .900 (or better) foe.  Meanwhile, defending national champs (like Alabama) are a soft 12-29 ATS when playing on the road without rest, if they covered the spread in each of their two previous games.  Take the Aggies + the points over the Crimson Tide.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders went into Morgantown last week, and upset the Mountaineers, 23-20, as an 8-point underdog.  But off that big win, we'll fade the Red Raiders tonight against a TCU team looking to get back into the win column off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Indeed, NCAA road favorites of 8 or less points, off exactly 2 SU/ATS losses, have cashed 58% of conference games over the past 42 years.  And the Red Raiders are an ugly 2-16 ATS at home, or on neutral fields, off an upset Big 12 Conference win.  Take TCU minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Texas-San Antonio.  The Roadrunners have sprinted out to a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record, after defeating UNLV in San Antonio last Saturday.  But the Roadrunners have been installed as an underdog vs. a 1-3 Western Kentucky squad.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with the undefeated Roadrunners.  But consider that, at Game 5 forward, NCAA road underdogs of more than 3 points off a home win, with a .750 (or better) SU/ATS record, have covered just 15 of 56 vs. conference foes off a point spread loss.  The reality is that Texas-San Antonio's schedule has been a lot softer than that of Western Kentucky, as the Hilltoppers were saddled with games against Army, Indiana and Michigan State.  When Western Kentucky faced an opponent of equal (or lesser) talent this season, it won in blowout fashion (59-21 vs Tennessee-Martin).  Lay the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers minus the points over Washington State.  Both of these teams come into this game off impressive wins.  The Beavers edged Washington, 27-24, while Washington St. went into Berkeley and defeated Cal, 21-6, as a 7.5-point underdog.  Last season, the Cougars went into Corvallis and upset the Beavers, 38-28, as a 3-point road underdog.  With revenge on its mind, we'll lay the points with Oregon State this afternoon.  The Beavers are 32-13-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a home loss, including 9-1 ATS vs. foes with a losing record.  Meanwhile, the Cougars are a wallet-busting 0-7 ATS at home off a double-digit upset win away from home.  Take Oregon State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Illinois.  The Illini snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 24-14 win over Charlotte last weekend.  Meanwhile, the Badgers have taken it on the chin the past two weeks, with back to back upset losses by 28 and 21 points.  But I love them to bounce back this Saturday afternoon, as NCAA road favorites off a loss by more than 18 points, have cashed 71.6% since 1981, when favored by more than 2 points against a foe off a double-digit win.  Likewise, road favorites priced from -9 to -16 points are 16-0 ATS off back to back losses, if their opponent is off a win by more than 8 points.  Take Wisky to roll on Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles over Miami-Ohio.  Last Saturday, the RedHawks upset Central Michigan, 28-17, in Oxford.  But off that home upset win, we'll fade Miami in Ypsilanti this weekend.  For technical support, consider that Mid-American Conference teams have covered just 2 of their last 21 (and 21 of their last 65) on the road off a home upset win the previous week, if they covered the spread in that victory by 10+ points.  Take Eastern Michigan.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos over Ball State.  Last year, the Cardinals upset Western Michigan, 30-27.  We'll take the Broncos in this revenge role, as Ball State has covered just 31% over the last 21 years when playing a revenge-minded foe, if the Cardinals were not a winning team.  And Western Michigan is 8-3 ATS its last 11 home games, including a perfect 4-0 ATS vs. foes off a win.  The Broncos have been quite impressive this season in rolling out to a 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS record.  Their only loss was a road game at #8-ranked Michigan, while they went into Pittsburgh, and upset a very good Panthers team, 44-41, as a 14-point underdog.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Liberty Flames minus the points over Middle Tennessee.  Very few teams have played as well "in Vegas" as Liberty over the past couple seasons.  The Flames are 13-2 ATS their last 15, and have covered the spread by an average of 7.12 ppg.  Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders have long under-achieved, and have been particularly bad away from home, when not laying 3 points, against an opponent with a winning ATS record, as they've covered just 12 of 41.  Take the Flames to blow out Middle Tenn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Michigan State.  After starting the 2021 campaign with four straight ATS wins, the Knights were blown out last week here, at home, by Ohio State, 52-13, as a 15-point underdog.  But there's not much shame in that.  Off that point spread loss, we'll take Rutgers to rebound on Saturday, as its defense has been stellar outside of last week's game.  Indeed, Rutgers gave up just 275 yards to #8-ranked Michigan, and just 261, 258 and 260 in its three games prior to that.  The 5-0 Spartans, on the other hand, have given up 440, 442, and 560 in their last three games.  Michigan State has covered just 9 of 28 Big 10 conference games vs. foes off a loss by 25+ points.  And it's 8-20 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points, away from home, vs. Big 10 foes.  Take Rutgers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Stanford.  The Sun Devils and Cardinal both pulled off big upsets last weekend.  Arizona State stunned the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl, 42-23, while Stanford shocked #3-ranked Oregon, 31-24, in overtime.  We'll lay the points with Arizona State, as it's 12-0 ATS as a home favorite vs. a conference opponent off an upset win the previous week.  Additionally, the Cardinal fall into negative 85-157, 41-111, and 61-140 ATS systems of mine based on their upset victory over the Ducks.  Take the Sun Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves.  The two teams that long ago used to be one and the same face off in this first round series.  For a while, it looked like Corbin Burnes would be a shoe-in for NL Cy Young, especially when Jacob deGrom went down with an injury.  He was pretty much untouchable through the first month of the season and went on to an All-Star first half.  He looked a lot more mortal in many of his second half starts and yet the 26-year-old RHP still finished with a league-best 2.43 ERA in 28 starts.  The only stat that might keep him from winning that Cy Young hardware is his 11 victories, but nobody will care about that too much this afternoon if Burnes can channel the version of himself that threw goose-eggs in eight of his starts this season.  Burnes has made six playoff appearances and has a 2.00 ERA in those, but this will be his first post-season start.  His lone start vs. Atlanta this season wasn't one of his best but the Brewers won the game easily, 9-5.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave + the points over Houston.  The Green Wave come into this game off a 23-point upset loss at the hands of East Carolina last Saturday, while Houston pulled off a 35-point upset at Tulsa.  But off those two disparate results, we'll step in and take the home dog Green Wave.  Indeed, teams off 20-point upset losses have cashed 10 straight vs foes off 20-point upset wins!  That bodes well for Tulane here, tonight.  As does the fact that home underdogs off 14 or less points, off upset conference losses, have cashed 70% over the last 42 years vs. conference foes off upset wins.  Finally, Tulane is 9-1 ATS off a conference defeat, while Houston is an awful 0-10 ATS off a win, if it's matched up against a conference foe off an upset loss.  Take the Green Wave + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Las Vegas Raiders/Los Angeles Chargers game.  Each of these two AFC West division rivals has gone 'under' the total a significant amount of the time when playing a division foe.  To wit:  the Chargers are 80-33-1 UNDER the total when playing at home vs. an AFC West opponent.  And the Raiders are 62-37-1 UNDER the total on the road in division games.   And the 'under' also falls into a 20-1 Totals system of mine, as well as a 67-35 Monday Night Football Totals system.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres.  With the Giants' loss in extra innings last night coupled with the Dodgers' win over the Brewers, the Giants have a one-game lead and need this victory today to avoid a one-game playoff with L.A.  The good news is that they are sending out the pitcher who has been arguably their best starter over the past couple of months.  24-year-old RHP Logan Webb has come out of nowhere to not only be one of the most effective starters on this team, but also in the entire league.  In 26 games -- including 25 starts -- Webb is 10-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  More importantly, the Giants are an incredible 9-1 in Webb's last 10 starts going back to early August.  The only team loss in those 10 starts?  That was two starts ago against this Padres team, making this afternoon's final start a revenge situation as well.  Not only that, but in his last 11 home starts, the Giants are 11-0.  San Fran is 39-18 (+21 games on the moneyline) in its last 57 day games.  Take the Giants.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over New Orleans.  New York is 0-3 to start the season.  But I won't pass up taking points from a Saints team which is an ugly 29-60 ATS as a home favorite vs. .500 (or worse) foes off a loss.  Moreover, winless teams are a superb 241-176 on the non-division road since 1980.  And, finally, the Giants are a wallet-fattening 17-0 ATS their last 17 NFC conference road games when they've owned a losing record.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans to go OVER the total.  Both of these teams come into this game off low-scoring games.  The Jets were shutout, 26-0, as a 10-point road underdog in Denver, while Tennessee won, 25-16, as a 4.5-point home favorite vs. the Colts.  New York has played each of its three games under the total, while the Titans have played two of their first three under the total.  And this general paucity of scoring in the games played by these teams thus far has led to the number on this game moving 2 to 3 points down from the opener.  I think this is a severe over-reaction to the fact that the Jets have scored just 20 points this season.  Indeed, New York's first 3 opponents (Denver, Carolina, New England) currently rank #1, #2 and #5 in scoring defense!  The Titans, on the other hand, are giving up a whopping 28 points per game, and rank #25 in scoring defense.  I fully expect the Flyboys to be able to put up some points here, at home, on this Sunday afternoon.  Tennessee has played 7 of its last 8 (and 12 of its last 16) road games over the total, and has surrendered an average of 28.63 ppg in its last eight road games.  And it's 9-0-1 'over' the total its last 10 games off a home win.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners minus the points over Old Dominion.  UTEP fell behind early last week here, at home, to New Mexico, but stormed back for a 20-13 upset victory.  They'll now welcome Conference USA rival, Old Dominion, to El Paso.  And Conference USA teams are a fantastic 76-41 ATS at home off an upset win, if they're playing an opponent not off back to back wins.  Moreover, the Miners fall into a super 69% ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset wins.  Take UTEP minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS, while Boston College is 4-0 straight-up.  Clearly, the two teams are going in opposite directions.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Eagles, especially after their impressive win over Missouri last week.  But Boston College falls into a negative 47-74 ATS system of mine which goes against certain undefeated teams against winless ATS foes.  And even though I greatly respect the job that Jeff Hafley is doing in Chestnut Hill, this will be the first time his team is an underdog this season.  For technical support, consider that undefeated underdogs of more than 3 points, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are a woeful 31.5% ATS since 1985 when matched up against .500 (or worse) opponents.  Take Clemson minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Baylor.  We played on the Bears as a home underdog last Saturday vs. Iowa State, and were rewarded with a 31-29 win, as a 7-point dog.  Baylor is undefeated at 4-0, and once again installed as an underdog - this time in Stillwater vs. the similarly-unbeaten Cowboys.  Unfortunately for the Bears, single-digit Big 12 Conference underdogs have covered just 31% of conference games off an upset win.  Even worse:  undefeated teams are a nasty 12-24 ATS at Oklahoma State.  And, finally, undefeated teams have cashed 69% at home vs. foes off upset home wins where they were at least a touchdown underdog.  Lay the points with Oklahoma State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Texas A&M.  Both of these teams enter Saturday's game in College Station off losses.  Miss State fell at home, 28-25, to LSU, while A&M lost in Arlington to the Arkansas Razorbacks, 20-10.  The Aggies' offense has left a lot to be desired this season.  After losing starter Haynes King to a broken leg earlier this season, the Aggies are trying to make do with backup Zach Calzada.  But he was just 20-for-36 for 151 passing yards vs. Arkansas.  That won't cut it in the rugged SEC Conference.  Miss State is 2-2, but could easily be 4-0 this season.  It lost 31-29 at Memphis, in part due to a blown call by the officials which allowed a Tigers punt return touchdown to stand.  The Bulldogs outyarded Memphis, 468-246 (!), and didn't lose the turnover battle, but somehow lost.  Then last week, Miss State outyarded LSU 486-343, but came away empty.  Texas A&M has covered just 7 of 24 SEC Conference games when favored by 7+ points.  We'll take the Bulldogs as a big road underdog on Saturday night.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over North Carolina State.  The Wolfpack snapped an 8-game losing streak to Clemson, with a 27-21 overtime win as a double-digit underdog.  But off that huge upset win, we will fade NC State in this non-conference game.  Indeed, since 1980, home teams have covered just 33.8% vs. non-conference foes, if they won outright as a double-digit underdog in their previous game.  And if they were off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, then our home teams have only covered 21% (NC State fits this 21% ATS tightener, as well).  Louisiana Tech's QB, Austin Kendall (63-for-104, 837 yds, 7 TDs, 144 QB rating) has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the Bulldogs.  Take LA Tech + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over South Florida.  SMU stunned its metroplex rival, TCU, last Saturday, in Fort Worth, as the Mustangs won by 8, as a 9.5-point underdog.  That moved the record of Sonny Dykes' troops to 4-0 this season.  They're now healthy home favorites against the Bulls, who are 2-2 on the season.   We'll take the homestanding Mustangs, as home favorites of 17+ points, off an upset road win, have cashed 64% since 1980 vs. .500 (or worse) conference foes.  Take SMU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.