Sports Picks & Predictions

At 5 pm, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars minus the points over Arkansas St.  South Alabama's QB, Carter Bradley, missed last week's game at Troy, and the Jaguars missed him greatly.  Troy blew out South Alabama, 28-10, as a 7 point favorite, and that was S. Alabama's 2nd straight blowout loss.  Bradley should be back under center on Saturday vs. Arkansas St.  And we'll lay the points with the homestanding Jaguars, who have covered 69% off back to back losses by more than 10 points, and 82% after failing to cover the point spread by 6+ points in their two previous games.  And the Jags are also 4-0 SU/ATS their last four meetings with the Red Wolves.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Coppin State Eagles + the points over Mount St. Mary's.  The Mountaineers dropped their season opener to Maryland, while the Eagles come into this game off back to back losses to Towson and Virginia Tech.  Coppin St. has been installed as a double-digit dog this afternoon, and we'll happily grab the points knowing that the Eagles are 18-6-1 ATS as a double-digit dog off back to back losses, including 10-1 ATS vs. a foe off a loss.  Take Coppin St.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Texas Southern.  Both of these teams dropped their season opener.  ASU fell, 71-56, at Mississippi State, while the Tigers were annihilated, 92-55, on Monday by New Mexico.  That 37-point defeat lowered Texas Southern's point spread ledger to 18-34-1 ATS since January 15, 2022.  Even worse:  if the Tigers were matched up against an opponent off a straight-up loss, the Tigers are an ugly 3-19 ATS their last 22.  Lay the points with the Sun Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes over Rutgers.  Iowa is a spectacular 70-30-2 ATS in Big 10 Conference games when priced from -7 to +2 points.  Take the Hawkeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over New Mexico St.  The Aggies won, 13-7, last week, as a 3-point home favorite, while Western Kentucky went into El Paso, and defeated the Miners, 21-13.  We'll fade New Mexico St on the road Saturday, as it is an awful 28% ATS as a road dog off a home win, if matched up against an opponent off a win.  Even better:  the Hilltoppers are 39-21 ATS in conference games off a win, including 6-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights + the points over Oklahoma St.  The Cowboys will be seeking their 6th straight win after upsetting rival Oklahoma last week.  We played on Oklahoma State in that game, but will go against them on Saturday, as a letdown is expected (the Cowboys have covered just 25% on the road after playing Oklahoma since 1980).  Also, Central Florida has gone 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS at home vs. conference foes off back to back wins, if UCF wasn't getting 7+ points.  Take the Knights.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over North Carolina State.  This is a big letdown spot for NC State after its two upset wins at home over Clemson and Miami.  Now, the Wolfpack are road favorites against a Deacons squad off back to back losses.  Since 1980, road favorites have covered just 28% off back to back upset wins as a home dog, if they were next matched up against a conference foe off back to back losses.  Take Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers minus the points over Appalachian St.  The Mountaineers notched a rare ATS win vs. Sun Belt conference foes last week in their 31-9 victory vs. Marshall.  Still, the Mountaineers are a poor 2-13 ATS their last 15 conference games, including 0-7 ATS on the road.  Take Georgia State minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Michigan.  The Nittany Lions are 8-1 this season, and are giving up just 11.8 ppg.  We'll grab the points with the defensive juggernaut, as home dogs of +3 (or more) points, that give up less than 12 ppg, have covered 73% since 1980, at Game 6 forward, if their win percentage was .888 (or better).  Take the Nittany Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Indiana.  The Hoosiers upset Wisconsin, 20-14, as a 7.5-point home dog last Saturday.  Unfortunately, losing Big 10 teams have only covered 30% since 1980 off an upset win as a home dog of more than 7 points, if they were matched up against foe off a SU win.  And Illinois has covered 63% since 1980 as a favorite vs. conference foes off a win.  Take the Illini.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Prairie View A&M.  Wazzu blew out Idaho, 84-59, on Monday, and will host the Panthers, who covered in defeat at Seattle two nights ago.  Prairie View is a soft 35.7% as an underdog off an ATS win, while Washington State is 27-7 ATS as a double-digit favorite when playing a foe off an ATS win.  Lay the points.

At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Under in the SMU/North Texas game.  Mustangs QB Preston Stone is in the concussion protocol, and may miss Friday's game.  Regardless of whether he plays, we'll look for a low-scoring game, as it falls into 2 of my better totals systems, with records of 140-70 and 135-61.  Additionally, the last 2 meetings between these two Dallas Metroplex rivals have gone Under the total (by an average of 19 points).  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Grambling.  Tad Boyle's Buffaloes got the 2023-24 campaign off to a good start with a 75-57 win over Towson.  We'll lay the points with the Buffs tonight, and go against Grambling, as the Tigers have covered just 29.1% as an underdog of 11+ points, while Colorado has covered 69% when priced from -20.5 to -26.  Lay the big number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the St Mary's Gaels minus the points over New Mexico.  The Gaels got their 2023-24 season off to a fantastic start Monday when they blew out Stanislaus St., 107-28.  After that 'tune-up' game, the Gaels will turn their focus to New Mexico tonight.  And the Gaels should be focused since they will be looking to avenge a loss to the Lobos last season.  St. Mary's has covered 73% since 2003 when favored by less than 14 points and playing with revenge from a loss the previous season.  And they're 60-35 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Chicago.  I can't lay points with a Chicago team which has won just 2 of its last 19 games.  The Bears are also a poor 23-37 ATS as a favorite, including 14-24 ATS vs. a foe off a loss.  And the Panthers are 46-27 ATS as a road underdog vs. a non-winning foe.  I'll take the Panthers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns minus the points over Southern Miss.   The Cajuns were upset, 37-17, by Arkansas State last Saturday, as a 7-point road favorite.  We played against Louisiana-Lafayette in that game, but will switch gears, and now play on the Cajuns at home.  In this game, the Cajuns will be seeking to avenge an upset loss suffered at the hands of Southern Miss last season.  Louisiana has gone 20-11 ATS off an upset loss, and is also 17-6 ATS when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Portland.  The Kings come into tonight's game off back to back blowout losses to Houston, by scores of 107-89 and 122-97.  And they've lost 3 in a row, overall.  We'll lay the points tonight, as home favorites of -3.5 (or more) points have covered 68.6% since 1990 off back to back road losses by 18+ points.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  These two teams met less than two weeks ago, and the Thunder upset the Cavaliers, 108-105.  But Darius Garland (17.7 ppg) didn't play in that game.  Garland is back now, and just played 35 minutes (his highest this season) in the Cavs' 115-104 win over Golden State.  On the OKC side, Lu Dort poured in 25 points in 39 minutes, but is questionable to play tonight with a hip injury.  I like the Cavaliers tonight, as they're a solid 55-32 ATS off a double-digit home win.  Meanwhile, the Thunder are a soft 17-32 ATS at home vs. revenge-minded foes.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the New Jersey Devils.  The Devils won at Chicago, 4-2, on Sunday, and are 7-3-1 on the season.  The Avs have a similar record, at 7-3, but were routed, 7-0, by the Golden Knights on Saturday.  And that was Colorado's 3rd shutout loss in its last four games.  All three of those defeats, though, were on the road; tonight's game is at home, where Colorado is 3-0, and is averaging 4.67 goals per game.  Colorado is 39-22 (+5.2 net games) after allowing 4+ goals, including 3-0 when it lost its previous game by 5 or more goals.  Meanwhile, New Jersey is a poor 21-32 (minus 20.0 net games) off a win by 2+ goals.  Take Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Houston Rockets.  These two teams met here, in Houston, on Saturday night, and the Rockets routed the Kings, 107-89, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  De'Aaron Fox missed that game, and will miss his 3rd straight game tonight, as he has a sprained ankle.  But tonight, it's the Kings who have been installed as the underdog, rather than the Rockets.  And we'll happily take the points, and look for a bounce-back game by Sacramento tonight.  The Kings 31-14-1 ATS on the road when playing with revenge.  And they are also 13-5 ATS off an upset loss, including 5-0 ATS off back-to-back losses.  And they're 16-6 ATS off back to back losses, generally.  That bodes well for Sacramento.  As does the fact that Houston is 22-44-2 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  And it is also 2-14-1 ATS its last 17 (and 18-43-1 ATS its last 62) vs. foes off back to back losses.  And the Rockets are 1-12 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss.  Grab the points with the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls minus the points over the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks.  Last season the Hawks upset the Owls, 86-78, as a 15.5-point underdog.  We'll take the revenge-minded Owls on Monday night, as the Hawks are 0-6 ATS as underdogs when they defeated their opponent in the prior meeting.  And Temple is a solid 65-42-2 ATS as a home favorite (or PK) when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30pm, our selection is on the Merrimack Warriors + the points over Vermont.  Last season, the Catamounts crushed Merrimack by 23 points, as they stormed out to a 37-15 halftime lead, en route to a 66-43 final.  Vermont had a great season, and won the America East Conference for the fourth time in five season.  But Vermont coach John Becker only had 1 starter from that team return (and just two of the team's top six scorers).  With eight newcomers, I expect Vermont to take some time to gel.  We'll go against Vermont, and take the Warriors to avenge last season's blowout loss, as they fall into 50-21 and 87-62 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Memphis gets another bite at the apple tonight.  It will be playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games at Portland.  Friday's game looked to be going well, as Memphis led, 100-90 with just over 3 minutes left.  But it collapsed, and fell by 2 points in overtime.  The Grizzlies fall into a 123-75 ATS regular season "right-back revenge" system of mine, which plays on certain teams in the 2nd of back-to-back meetings that lost SU in the first meeting.  Additionally, Portland is 1-17 SU and 3-14-1 ATS its last 18 as a home underdog (and 20-40-2 ATS its last 62).  Take the Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the Golden State Warriors.  Cleveland comes into today's game off a 121-116 upset loss at Indiana, while Golden State won (but failed to cover) at Oklahoma City on Friday, 141-139.  Golden State has been anything but "Road Warriors" the last 4 seasons, as they've gone 54-83-3 ATS on the road, including 5-17 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss.  We'll fade the Warriors today.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Over in the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders game. The New York Giants are averaging a league-low 11.8 ppg, and their last 6 games have gone Under the total. But in none of those 6 games were both Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones on the field. Barkley missed Game 3, 4 and 5, while Jones was sidelined for Games 6, 7, and 8. I expect a much better offensive performance for the Giants now that both will be in the backfield on Sunday. And the Over also falls into 43-24 and 93-69 Totals systems of mine.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Under in the Carolina/Indianapolis game.  The Colts' defense has been a sieve over the past three weeks, as they gave up 37 to Jacksonville, 38 to Cleveland, and 38 last week to New Orleans. After those three high-scoring games -- all of which went Over the total -- I'll take the Under in this game vs. Carolina. Since 1980, NFL games have gone Under the total 60% of the time, if a team gave up more than 30 points in each of its last three games, and all 3 went Over the total. Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs.  The Raptors come into this game off a 114-99 blowout loss to Philly, while the Spurs enter off back-to-back upset wins over the Phoenix Suns.  San Antone is now 3-2 on the season, while Toronto is 2-4.  I'll lay the points with the Raptors, as they're 32-19 ATS off a blowout loss by 12 (or more) points, including 5-0 ATS their last five.  And San Antonio is an ugly 47-88-1 ATS vs. foes off an ATS loss, if the Spurs are not off an ATS win, and not playing with revenge.  Take Toronto.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  Matthew Stafford will be sidelined this afternoon, and the Rams will instead have Brett Rypien under center.  They'll be looking to bounce back from last week's 43-20 loss to Dallas.  We'll grab the points, as underdogs have gone 430-336-17 ATS in non-division games off a loss by more than 18 points.  And the Packers are a poor 3-12 ATS as a single-digit favorite, including 1-8 ATS in non-division games.  Take Los Angeles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 am, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Please note that this game's start time is early Sunday morning, as it is being played in Frankfurt, Germany.  Last week, I had my AFC West Game of the Year on the Denver Broncos +7 over Kansas City, so I wasn't surprised that the Super Bowl champs were upset in that game. But I will switch gears and play on Kansas City in this contest, as defending champs have gone 14-1 ATS away from home off a loss, if they were playing a .700 (or better) opponent off a SU/ATS win. Lay the points with KC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Arizona.  The Wildcats upset Oregon State last Saturday, 27-24, as a 3-point underdog.  We'll fade Arizona as a home dog tonight, as it's 10-32 ATS as an underdog off an upset win the previous week.  Take UCLA.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Brooklyn Nets.  Boston is looking like the best team in the league, and it ripped the nets for 155 points on Wednesday.  Boston had Thursday and Friday off to rest and prepare for this division game against Brooklyn, which played last night (and won) in Chicago.  We'll take Boston, as the Celtics have gone 74-39 ATS off a 20-point (or greater) home win, including 16-4 ATS vs. unrested foes.  Take the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over NC State.  We played on the Wolfpack last week, as a double-digit underdog vs. Clemson, and were rewarded with a 24-17 upset win.  But off that big victory, I look for a letdown by Dave Doeren's men tonight.  NC State is a woeful 15-27 ATS in ACC Conference games off an upset conference win, including 7-23 ATS if it owned a winning record.  Lay the points with Miami-Fla.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans + the points over Washington.  The Trojans have lost their last six games ATS, while Washington is 0-3-1 ATS its last four, so something has to give tonight.  It's hard to pass up the Trojans as a home underdog, and especially when getting a field goal or more, as USC is 16-7 ATS as a home dog of +3 (or more) points, including 7-1 ATS when it failed to cover the spread by 9+ points in its previous game.  Take USC.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Both teams enter this game with identical 3-2 records.  Orlando will be returning home after a 4-game road trip (which included a 106-103 loss at the Lakers), while Los Angeles will be hitting the road after its back-to-back home wins over Orlando and the Clippers.  We'll fade Los Angeles, as it's 20-49 ATS as a favorite (or PK) on the road off back to back home wins, including 11-36 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  Grab the points with the Magic.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats minus the points over Georgia Southern.  The Eagles are in 2nd place in the Sun Belt East division with a 3-1 record following a 44-27 blowout of Georgia State last week.  Meanwhile, the Bobcats have won just two of four conference games this season, and lost by 18 at home to Troy last week.  We'll take Texas State as a home favorite, as NCAA favorites (or PK) have covered 62% of conference games since 1980 if they did NOT have a winning conference record, and were off a SU/ATS loss, and were playing a foe off a SU/ATS win which had a .750 (or better) conference record.  Lay the points with the Bobcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over Nevada.  The Rainbows are 2-7 ATS this season, including 0-4 SU/ATS their last six.  Meanwhile, the Wolf Pack come into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the ice-cold Rainbows.  But consider that NCAA teams have covered 56% the last 41 years when they were on 4-game SU/ATS losing streaks, and their opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins, including 63% when our 'play-on' team wasn't getting 7+ points.  Take Hawaii.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over East Carolina.  Tulane stumbled out of the gate by losing to Ole Miss, but has reeled off six straight wins.  The Green Wave will try to make it seven-in-a-row this afternoon, in Greenville, against a Pirates team riding a 4-game losing streak (and a team which is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS vs. FBS schools).  Tulane is a solid 24-10 ATS as a favorite.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Iowa.  The Hawkeyes were upset last week, 12-10, by Minnesota, while the Wildcats pulled off an upset win vs. Maryland, 33-27, as a 14.5-point underdog.  We'll take Northwestern to win its second straight (and cover its 3rd straight), as it is 42-22 ATS as a single-digit underdog vs. foes off a loss.  Grab the points with the Wildcats.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Oklahoma.  I love playing on Home Dogs that can score, and Okie State certainly fits the bill.  The Cowboys have tallied 39, 48 and 45 in their last three games.  We'll grab the points with Oklahoma State, as home dogs of +5 (or more) points have gone 34-14 ATS as home dogs of +5 (or more) points.  Take the Cowboys.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Florida State.  The Seminoles are 8-0 and ranked 4th in the country, while Pitt is 2-6 SU/ATS, including back to back SU/ATS losses at Wake Forest and at Notre Dame.  But the last time an undefeated team came calling and played Pitt here, on campus, was just three weeks ago, when the 6-0 Louisville Cardinals were handed their first loss of the season, 38-21, as a 7-point road favorite.  Pitt is understandably getting more points than that today, and we'll happily take the Panthers + the more than 3 touchdowns, as they fall into a 76.8% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. undefeated foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Additionally, Pitt is 21-11 ATS as a home dog of +3 (or more) points vs. conference foes.  Take the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Penn State.  The Maryland Terrapins will be looking to bounce back from last week's upset loss at Northwestern.  And they'll also be seeking revenge, as they were whitewashed, 30-0, by Penn State.  We'll take the points with the revenge-minded Terps, as Big 10 teams have gone 36-16 ATS when playing with shutout revenge, and installed as an underdog of less than 20 points.  Even better:  the Terrapins are 21-11 ATS at home off a SU/ATS loss when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas St Red Wolves + the points over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Rajin' Cajuns pulled off a big upset last week, as a 12-point road underdog, when they went into Mobile, and upset the South Alabama Jaguars, 33-20.  Unfortunately, teams off upset road wins as 12-point (or greater) underdogs have covered the next week just 38% since 1980, if they were on the road vs. an opponent off a win.  With Arkansas State, indeed, off a win last week, we'll grab the points with Butch Jones' men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over Philadelphia.  The Suns lost not once, but twice at home to Victor Wembanyama's Spurs (as favorites of -7 and -10.5).  And in the 2nd match-up, on Thursday, Wemby got a career-high 38 points!  I expect Coach Frank Vogel to get his troops to come out with energy and focus this afternoon, as they won't want to lose three in a row this early in the season.  For technical support, consider that NBA road underdogs have covered 73% since 1990 off back to back upset losses, if they were favored by at least 7 points in those 2 games, and were now playing an opponent off back to back wins.  Take Phoenix plus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over Notre Dame.  The Tigers have been installed as a home underdog vs. the Irish, and I'll happily take the points.  Indeed, it's hard to pass up Clemson as a home underdog (or PK), as it's gone 26-14 ATS in that role, including 9-2 ATS off a SU/ATS loss.  Even better:  the Irish come into Death Valley off back to back blowout home wins over USC (48-20) and Pittsburgh (58-7).  But Notre Dame is a nasty 1-13 ATS after back to back home wins by more than 10 points.  Take Clemson + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Dallas.  The Nuggies were smashed, 110-89, by the T-Wolves two nights ago, and will look to bounce back tonight against the undefeated Mavericks.  We'll lay the points, as defending champs have covered 64% at home the last 34 years, if they were off a loss by more than 20 points, and were now matched up against an opponent off a win.  Take Denver.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Portland Trail Blazers.  This is the first of two back-to-back games here, in the Rose City, between these Western Conference clubs.  The Blazers come into tonight's game off back to back upset wins at Toronto and Detroit.  But those two upsets have triggered a negative 177-269-7 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off back to back upsets.  We'll go against a Portland team which is a putrid 0-17 straight-up, and 2-14-1 ATS its last 17 as a home dog (and 19-40-2 ATS its last 61).  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over New York.  The Bucks were throttled, 130-111, by Toronto on Wednesday, as a 4-point favorite.  We'll take Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. to bounce back tonight, as they've gone 25-8-2 ATS as a favorite of 13 or less points (or PK) following a game where they failed to cover the spread by 20+ points.  Take Milwaukee.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over San Antone.  We played on the Spurs two nights ago, and got the $$$ when San Antonio won outright, 115-114, as a 7-point underdog.  Phoenix did, however, lead by 20 points, but slowly blew that lead, and finally saw the Spurs take their first lead of the game with 1.2 seconds left after Keldon Johnson stole the ball from Kevin Durant, and went in for a lay-up.  Kevin Durant will no doubt want to make amends for his game-losing turnover, and the good news for the Suns is they get to play the same team tonight, in the second of back-to-back meetings in Phoenix.  I expect Frank Vogel's men to not take their feet off the gas, and for them to absolutely throttle the Spurs.  The Suns are 26-10 ATS as a favorite off an upset loss, including 9-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Dallas Stars.  The Oilers got off the schneid Sunday when they won the Heritage Classic against rival Calgary, 5-2.  That game snapped the Oilers' 4-game losing streak, and also saw the return of star Connor McDavid from injury.  The Oilers then had three days off to rest, and prepare for this game.  Coach Jay Woodcroft took advantage of the unusual gap in the schedule, and held important practices the last two days to reinforce the good traits the team displayed in its win over the Flames.  I expect Edmonton to come out focused tonight, and notch its first win of the season at its home arena (after dropping the first three to Vancouver, Winnipeg and the NY Rangers).  Take the Oilers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Wake Forest.  The Blue Devils will be thrilled to see Wake Forest in Durham tonight, as three of Duke's last four opponents are currently ranked among the nation's Top 20 (Notre Dame (#12), Florida State (#4), Louisville (#15)).  Not surprisingly, the Blue Devils lost all three games.  But Wake Forest is not an elite team, as the Demon Deacons are 1-4 in ACC Conference play.  And the Deacons are especially horrible against the pass, as they give up 256.5 passing yards per game (rank #112 of 130 in country, and dead last in the ACC).  So this will be a big step-down in class for Duke.  And when Duke's been installed as a favorite vs. an FBS (Division 1) school, it's gone 3-0 SU/ATS this season, and 8-2 ATS its last 10.  Duke is also 9-0 SU/ATS its last nine as a home favorite of more than 10 points.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Philadelphia.  These two Atlantic Division rivals are meeting for the 2nd time in five nights.  We played on the 76ers in the first meeting, and were rewarded with a 114-107 victory (as a 4-point road favorite).  The Sixers are at home for this game, and we'll grab the points with the Raptors.  Toronto is 17-10-1 ATS as a road underdog with revenge, while Philly is a horrible 11-21 ATS as a home favorite vs. a revenge-minded foe.  And the Raptors are 31-22 ATS the last 53 meetings.  Take Toronto as a big underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Golden State.  These two teams met last Friday, and the Warriors upended Sacramento, 122-114.  We'll take the Kings in this rematch, as Sacto is 38-19-1 ATS on the road, including 13-3-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  And Golden State is 1-11-1 ATS its last 13 (and 32-77-3 ATS its last 112) when it was off a point spread win, and playing a revenge-minded foe.  Grab the points with Sacramento.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Utah Jazz.  The Grizzlies come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses.  The good news for Memphis is that it's an awesome 26-7-1 ATS off back to back SU/ATS losses when it wasn't getting 4.5 (or more) points.  And Utah is an ugly 18-41-2 ATS when priced from -6 to +2 points.  Take the Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Texas Rangers.  The offensive outburst that many felt the Rangers were capable of finally came forth on Tuesday in Game 4 of the World Series.  And it came forth like a dam break.  By the end of the 3rd inning, Texas already had a 10-0 lead and the Rangers cruised from there.  But the night was not without some bad news for the team from the Lone Star State.  Outfielder Adolis Garcia, arguably the Rangers' post-season MVP, tried to play last night after exiting Game 3 with a side injury but he was ruled out of action for the remainder of the series.  The series returns to the #1 starters tonight as RHs Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen take center stage in this must win game for the home team.  That "home" part is important for Gallen who was nearly unstoppable at Chase Field in the regular season.  In 16 starts here covering 102 innings, Gallen was 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.03 WHIP vs. just 5-6 and 4.42 in 18 starts on the road.  Needless to say, this is his biggest home start by far.  Take the Diamondbacks.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over New York.  This is the 2nd of back-to-back games between these teams.  New York won Round 1 in Cleveland last night, 109-91.  We'll take the underdog Cavaliers in the rematch, as Cleveland falls into a 489-350 ATS revenge system of mine.  Even better:  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS to start the season.  And at Game 5 forward, road teams have covered 76% of non-division games since 1990, if they were winless ATS, and off a straight-up loss.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Phoenix.  We played against Gregg Popovich's crew on Sunday, and were rewarded by a 40-point Clippers blowout.  But off that horrible game, we'll back the Silver and Black tonight in the desert.  Phoenix will be without two of its best players, as Bradley Beal and Devin Booker will be in street clothes.  And the Spurs are 101-58-2 under Popovich in the regular season off a loss by more than 10 points, when their opponent was off an ATS win.  Additionally, Phoenix is an ugly 26-56 ATS at home off a win by more than 17 points, if it was playing a rested opponent.  Take the Spurs.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets over the Charlotte Hornets.  We played on the Nets +6.5 over Dallas on Friday, as our NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month and were rewarded with a wire-to-wire cover.  Brooklyn is 0-2 straight-up, but 2-0 "in Vegas."  And we'll take Brooklyn once again in this road game at Charlotte, as rested teams, with a .200 (or worse) win percentage, have covered 69% since 1990 if they were 100% Perfect ATS on the season.  Take Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over the Indiana Pacers.  The Pacers have scored 125+ points in each of their two games to start the season.  We'll fade Indiana, as undefeated NBA teams have gone 7-29-1 ATS after scoring more than 115 points in each of their 2 previous games, provided they weren't getting 4+ points in their current game.  And if our 'play-against' team was matched up against a sub-.400 foe, then our 29-7 stat zooms to 12-0.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over San Antone.  We played against the Clippers on Friday, and got the $$$ with the Utah Jazz, who pulled off the 120-118 upset of L.A.  The Clippers will welcome Victor Wembanyama & Co. to the West Coast for their first road game of the season.  And the Spurs have been dreadful away from the Alamo City, as they've gone 11-27 ATS, including 0-12 ATS their last 12 when priced from +5 to +9.5 points!  Meanwhile, the Clips are a solid 38-22 ATS as a favorite off an upset loss.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Philadelphia.  We played on Philly last night at Toronto, and were rewarded with a 114-107 win (and cover).  But we'll switch gears, and play against the unrested Sixers tonight.  Philly is a poor 34-57-2 ATS when playing at home without rest following a road game the day before, if its opponent was rested.  Grab the points with the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks won their opener, 118-117, over the Philadelphia 76ers, and Damian Lillard had a smashing debut, as he scored 39 points.  But Milwaukee failed to cover the spread in that game.  I don't think they'll cover tonight, either, as Atlanta falls into some of my very best NBA systems, with records of 140-84, 95-28, and 89-32.  The Hawks are 0-2 ATS to start the season, and they're 19-5 ATS off back to back ATS losses, including 6-0 ATS when getting more than 5 points.  And Milwaukee is 14-27 ATS when favored by 7 or more points at home, off a straight-up win.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over San Francisco.  The 49ers come into this game off back to back upset losses, while Cincy has won its last 2, both straight-up, and ATS.  In most instances, I would be looking to play on the team off back to back upset losses.  And it's certainly true that the 49ers have excelled in that situation, going 11-5 ATS.  But my problem here is that I don't want to lay this many points to a dangerous and, in my mind, still undervalued Bengals team.  Indeed, dating back to the start of the 2021 season, the Bengals are 12-0 ATS when getting 2.5 or more points.  I won't fade those numbers.  Take Cincinnati.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Kansas City.  The Broncos lost at Kansas City 2 weeks ago, 19-8.  But they'll get a chance to avenge that defeat at home, on Sunday.  And I love playing on revenge-minded home underdogs that lost to their opponent in their previous game, or two games back, as they've covered 65.9% since 1980.  Even better:  AFC West division underdogs, playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, with a .500 (or worse) record, have gone 100-64-6 ATS.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Baltimore.  The Cardinals return home off back to back road games.  And they've played much better at home this season than on the road.  At home, Arizona has averaged 25.3 ppg on offense, compared to 12.7 ppg on the road.  And Arizona has gone 2-1 ATS at home, compared to 1-3 ATS on the road.   Arizona is an awesome 31-7 ATS at home vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win, if Arizona was not favored by 3 or more points.  And the Ravens are a wallet-busting 10-22-4 ATS on the road off a win by 19 or more points.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals and Baltimore Ravens Over the total.  The Cardinals have not been scoring on the road this season, but they have been scoring in bunches at home.  On the road, Arizona has averaged 12.7 ppg, and three of its four road games have gone under the total.  But it's been a different story in front of its home faithful, as Arizona has averaged 25.3 ppg, and all three went over the total.  The Cardinals have gone over in 17 of their last 26 home games.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs to go Over the total.  The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game off 3 straight unders, while the Broncos have played their last 2 under the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here, especially with Denver scoring just 8 points in the season's first meeting.  But I'll take the Over, as the Chiefs are 25-13 Over the total following 3 or more unders.  And NFL games have gone Over the total 56% the past 20 seasons if a team scored 8 or less points in the season's prior meeting.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Houston.  The Texans come into this game off four straight covers -- all as an underdog.  But now, they're favored at Carolina.  And the last time Houston was favored, it didn't cover.  I don't like to play on teams as favorites following a string of covers as an underdog, as such teams generally don't do very well when they reverse roles from an underdog to a favorite.  Indeed, favorites of more than 2 points, off 3 straight dog covers have gone just 14-37 ATS, including 5-23 ATS vs. foes off back to back losses.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints over Indianapolis.  Last week, I played on the Colts vs. the Browns, as I loved the situational spot for Indianapolis, as it was off a 17-point blowout loss to division rival, Jacksonville, while the Browns came in off that shocking upset win over the previously-undefeated 49ers.  But now the Colts are NOT off a SU/ATS loss, as they covered the spread in defeat vs. Cleveland.  And Indy is a super 46-21 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, including 3-0 ATS this season.  But when it's NOT off a SU/ATS loss, Indy has gone just 31-43-3 ATS.  Meanwhile, New Orleans is 60-35 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS loss, including 15-4 ATS their last 19.  Take the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers over Minnesota.  The Vikings upset the 49ers on Monday Night Football, 22-17, as a 7-point underdog.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Minnesota in this game.  Since 1980, NFL favorites (or PK) off an upset win as a home underdog of more than 5 points, have covered just 38%.  Even better:  in this NFC North division rivalry, teams off a SU/ATS win have gone just 10-24 ATS when their opponent was not off a SU/ATS win.  With Green Bay off a loss to Denver, we'll take the Packers to snap their losing streak.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the New York Jets.  The Jets come into this game off back-to-back upset wins over Denver and Philly and have covered 3 straight overall.  But the Jets are now favored for the first time all season, and on the road no less.  (I understand the two teams share the stadium, but it's still a Giants home game, and the Giants' season ticket holders will be in the stands.).  I don't like playing on NFL road favorites following back to back upset wins, as they've cashed just 35.7% the past 42 years.  And the Jets are also a poor 16-28 ATS off 3 ATS wins.  Take the Giants + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans and Carolina Panthers Under the total.  First-year Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is starting to mold the Texans in his image.  The Texans have given up just 13.3 ppg their last three games, and all three went under the total.  And, dating back to his stint as defensive coordinator of the 49ers, 20 of his last 33 games have gone Under.  The Under is also 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between these clubs, including a 24-9 win by Carolina two seasons ago.  Take the Under.

At 12 Midnite, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbows and San Jose State Spartans Under the total.  The last three meetings between these two foes have sailed UNDER the total.  The three games have averaged 43.3 ppg, and have gone Under the total by an average of 17 ppg.  I'll look for another low-scoring game on the Island, as nine of the last 12 Hawaii home games vs. Mountain West foes have gone Under.  And the Under also falls into two totals systems of mine that are 89-59 and 48-25. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over UNLV.  Both teams are 6-1 on the season, but Fresno is looking up at UNLV in the Mountain West standings, since Fresno's loss came in conference play, while UNLV lost at Michigan.  We'll lay the points with the home team, as road underdogs of +6 (or more) points that are undefeated in conference play have cashed just 43% since 1980 vs. conference foes that had lost at least one conference game.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Oklahoma State.  The Bearcats are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak while Oklahoma State has won and covered its last three.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Cowboys at home, in Stillwater.  But be careful, as teams on 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have been solid on the road vs. conference foes off SU/ATS wins, as they've covered 57.2% since 1980.  Even better:  since 1980, the Bearcats have covered 71% off back to back losses when playing a conference foe off back to back wins.  We'll grab the points with the Bearcats.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over the Toronto Raptors.  In its opening game, Philly took the Milwaukee Bucks down to the wire on Thursday, but narrowly lost, 118-117.  Tonight, Nick Nurse's men will face the coach's former team, Toronto.  The Raptors also narrowly lost, 104-103, in overtime, at Chicago, last night.  And that lowered the Raptors' season record to 1-1.  The Raptors are a soft 10-17 ATS as home underdogs, while Philly is 14-7 ATS as a road favorite (including 5-0-1 ATS its last 6).  And rested road favorites have cashed 64% since 1990 vs. unrested division rivals, if our road favorite owned a worse record.  Take Philly.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers + the points over Ohio State.  The Buckeyes had a big win last week in their showdown with Penn State.  Both teams entered with 6-0 records, and the Buckeyes won, 20-12, as a 4-point favorite.  But I expect a bit of a letdown in Madison, on Saturday, as undefeated teams have only covered 22% on the road the past 44 seasons (at Game 8 forward) following a win against another undefeated team, if our play-against team (here, Ohio State) wasn't favored by more than 4 points in its prior game.  Wisconsin is an awesome 18-3 ATS when getting more than 6 points from an undefeated team, including 9-0 ATS at home, or on a neutral field.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls over the Detroit Pistons.  Detroit pulled off an upset win last night at Charlotte, 111-99.  But off that blowout win, we'll fade Monty Williams' men tonight.  For technical support, consider that Detroit is a disastrous 0-16 ATS at home off a win by 7+ points!  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Boise State/Wyoming game UNDER the total.  These two teams generally play low-scoring contests, as the last four (and seven of the last eight) have gone UNDER the total.  Indeed, the last four meetings have averaged 34 points, and have gone under by an average of 13 ppg.  I look for another low-scoring game on Saturday evening.  Take the Under.

At 5 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Warhawks come into this game on a 5-game losing streak.  But they've played well in defeat, lately, as they covered their last two games by 17.5 and 6.5 points.  They'll now welcome a Red Wolves squad which defeated it, 45-28, last season, but is off back to back blowout SU/ATS losses.  I look for Monroe to snap its long losing streak, as revenge-minded teams, on 4-game (or worse) losing streaks, have gone 59-34 ATS when they weren't getting more than 5 points.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Rice.  The Green Wave have been road warriors of late, as they have now covered 10 straight away from New Orleans.  I won't step in front of this freight train.  And especially not with an Owls team which has covered just 7 of 24 as a double-digit home underdog.  Rice also falls into a negative 111-208 ATS system of mine which fades certain underdogs off upset wins.  Lay the points with Tulane.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over BYU.  The last two times these teams met, the Cougars were underdogs, but hammered the Longhorns by scores of 41-7 and 40-21.  I expect Texas to remember those upset losses, and exact a measure of revenge on Saturday afternoon, as NCAA favorites of 14 or more points have cashed 74% when they lost the two prior meetings (and weren't underdogs in those two losses).  Even better:  Texas has lost its last 2 games to the spread.  But it's cashed 72.2% as favorites of -14 (or more) points off back to back ATS losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes + the points over Oregon.  The Utah Utes had an impressive win last week at USC, as they won, 34-32, as a 7-point road underdog.  It was the first time a team had scored more than 21 points on the defensive-minded Utes, who are giving up just 15 ppg on the season.  They now return home to take on the high-octane Ducks, who are averaging 47 ppg.  In match-ups between offensive-minded teams and defensive juggernauts, I tend to side with the defense -- and especially if installed as an underdog.  We'll play on the Utes as a home underdog, as NCAA home dogs of +4 (or more) points have covered 78% since 1980 (at Game 5 forward) if they gave up 15 ppg (or less) on defense, and their opponent averaged 45+ points on offense.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Virginia.  The Cavaliers come into this road game off back to back wins over William & Mary and North Carolina (as a 24-point underdog!).  Unfortunately, Virginia is a woeful 9-25 ATS on the road off back to back wins.  Take Miami.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack + the points over Clemson.  We played against the Tigers last Saturday at Miami, and will go against them on the road again, in Raleigh.  The Wolfpack lost their previous game, 24-3, at Duke, and play this game with revenge from a 10-point loss at Clemson last season.  The Tigers are a horrible 15-38-1 ATS away from home when playing a revenge-minded foe off a straight-up loss.  Take NC State.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights played well last week at Oklahoma, and covered the 17-point spread in defeat.  But now UCF has been installed as a big favorite vs. West Virginia, and the Knights have mightily struggled as a conference favorite of more than 3 points, going 4-19 ATS, including 0-9 ATS if UCF was off a straight-up loss.  Additionally, the Knights fall into a negative 62-125 ATS system of mine which plays against certain teams off losses.  Grab the points with WVU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over Oklahoma.  The Sooners are riding high with an undefeated, 7-0 record, but have to travel to Lawrence to take on the rested Jayhawks, who had last week off to prepare for this game.  The Jayhawks are a solid 5-2 this season (including 2-2 in Big 12 play), and will be in a prime spot to pull the outright upset.  We'll grab the points, as rested home dogs of more than 7 points, with a .500 (or better) conference win percentage, have cashed 67.7% vs. undefeated conference foes.  Take Kansas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Utah was blown out, 130-114, by the Sacramento Kings, on Wednesday.  We'll take the Jazz to bounce back, as they're 42-20 ATS as home underdogs, and 11-4 ATS at home vs. Los Angeles.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are a wallet-busting 1-9-1 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS win, if they were playing a sub-.400 opponent off a loss.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Dallas.  This will be the first time these teams have faced off since Kyrie Irving was traded by the Nets to the Mavericks.  And I expect a hotly-contested game which could go down to the wire.  Indeed, the last five meetings between these clubs have been decided by 2, 4, 2, 3 and 4 points.  I expect a similar game tonight, and love the underdog Nets.  Dallas did open its season with a 126-119 win vs. the San Antonio Spurs.  But it allowed a bad Spurs team to shoot 51.7% from the floor, and was only able to overtake San Antonio by ending the game with an 11-2 run.  Dallas was horrible as a favorite last season, and is 15-36-2 ATS its last 53 in that point spread role, including 3-20 ATS off a straight-up win.  Meanwhile, the Nets are 21-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Toronto.  These two teams met in last season's play-in round, and the Bulls upset Toronto, 109-105.  Unfortunately, the Bulls succumbed to Miami in the next game, and didn't qualify for the Playoffs.  In Chicago's first game this season, it was blown out, 124-104, by Oklahoma City here, at home.  The Bulls will try to redeem themselves tonight, and I expect a much better effort, as home teams off 20-point (or worse) losses in their home openers have covered 65% since 2000.  Take Chicago minus the points.

At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Charlotte.  The 49ers pulled off a nice upset on the road last week, when they went into East Carolina, and shocked the Pirates, 10-7, as a 6-point road underdog.  And that moved Charlotte's road ATS record to 4-0 this season (and 6-0-1 ATS their last seven, dating back to last season).  Unfortunately, the 49ers have burned $$$ at home, as they've gone 0-3 ATS this year (and 1-9 ATS their last 10).  Florida Atlantic, meanwhile, laid an egg last week, as they were blown out, 36-10, by Texas-San Antonio.  But that blowout loss has triggered a very good 84-37 ATS system of mine which plays on certain road teams off losses by 21+ points.  Lay the points with Florida Atlantic.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over the Charlotte Hornets.  The Hornets upset Atlanta, 116-110, as a home underdog on Tuesday, while Detroit lost a squeaker at Miami, 103-102, as a 9.5-point road underdog.  Detroit will be an improved team this season, with newly-hired coach Monty Williams at the helm, and Cade Cunningham back from injury.  Indeed, Cunningham poured in 30 points vs. the Heat.  Charlotte is a poor 27-39 ATS at home off a home win.  Take Detroit + the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets opened their season with an impressive victory vs. the Lakers on Tuesday, and will look for a 2nd straight win tonight, on Beale Street.  But I like Memphis to pull the upset, as the Grizzlies are 50-24 ATS at home vs. foes off a win, if Memphis wasn't favored by 2+ points.  Even worse for Denver:  it's 63-96 ATS on the road off a point spread win.  And the Nuggets are a dismal 0-5 ATS their last 5, and 1-9 ATS their last 10 at Memphis.  Take the Grizzlies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Tampa Bay.  We played against Buffalo each of the past two weeks, and got the $$$ with New England last Sunday, and the New York Giants the week before.  We also played against Tampa Bay last week, and won our NFC South Game of the Year on Atlanta.  In this Thursday game, we will side with the homestanding Bills, and look for Josh Allen & Co. to bounce back from their disappointing game at New England.  Indeed, the Bills generally bounce back at home off losses, and especially in non-division games, where they've gone 55-31-4 ATS.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Georgia Southern Eagles over the Georgia State Panthers.  The Eagles come into this home game vs. Sun Belt rival, Georgia State, off back to back ATS losses, while the Panthers enter off back to back ATS wins.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Panthers.  But be careful, as Sun Belt home teams have covered 70% off back to back ATS losses vs. foes off back to back ATS wins, provided our home team wasn't getting 3+ points.  Additionally, the Eagles are 21-9 ATS at home, including 9-0 ATS their last nine when priced from +2.5 to -9.5.  Take Georgia Southern.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers + the points over Jacksonville State.  The Gamecocks upset Western Kentucky, 20-17, as a 7.5-point home underdog last week.  They're now installed as a road favorite.  I'm not a big fan of playing on road favorites following an upset win as a home underdog, and especially not when they're matched up against a .500 (or better) foe, as they've cashed just 41.5% the past 44 years.  Even worse for the Gamecocks:  Conference USA favorites have cashed just 26% away from home the past 23 years following an upset win as an underdog of more than 7 points.  Grab the points with the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Liberty.  The Flames are 7-0 straight-up, including 3-0 in Conference USA play.  But Western Kentucky will be difficult to defeat in Bowling Green.  The Hilltoppers are 40-16 SU and 30-18 ATS at home over the past 10 seasons, including 7-4 ATS as a home underdog.  Admittedly, Western Kentucky played poorly last Tuesday, and lost outright to Jacksonville State, 20-17, as a 7.5-point road favorite.  But the Hilltoppers are an awesome 11-0 ATS as an underdog, priced from +3.5 to +9 points, off a straight-up loss.  And they're 9-2 ATS at home following 2+ road games.  Finally, Liberty falls into a negative 64-110 ATS system of mine which fades certain undefeated teams.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.