Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings over Detroit.  The Kings have lost five straight games after falling in overtime at Miami on Monday.  But they're an awesome 19-4 ATS on the road off a road loss, if they're off back to back losses, overall.  Take Sacramento.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over San Diego St.  The Aztecs, at 19-0, remain the country's lone unbeaten team.  But we will grab the double-digits with Wyoming, which has lost its last six games.  The Cowboys play with revenge from a 20-point loss to San Diego St. less than two weeks ago.  And Mountain West conference road underdogs of more than 13 points have gone 42-18 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road underdog was playing with revenge.  Even better:  undefeated teams, with a 19-0 or better record, have covered just 35.1% since 1990 at home, including 20% vs. foes with a .455 (or worse) win percentage.  Wyoming also falls into two of my favorite College Basketball systems, that are 194-94 and 94-37 ATS since 1990.  Take the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Indiana.  We played on the Jazz two nights ago, and easily got the $$$ when they blew out Sacramento, 123-101.  Meanwhile, the Pacers won in Denver vs. the Nuggets last night for their fifth straight win.  We'll come right back with Utah on Monday, as it seeks revenge from a 19-point loss in Indianapolis earlier this season.   And the Jazz fall my best revenge system, which is 78-19 ATS since 1990.  Even better:  Utah's 16-2 SU its last 18, and 11-2 ATS its last 13.  Finally, Utah is an awesome 67-35 ATS when rested, and playing an unrested foe off back-to-back wins.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Oklahoma City.  These two teams met 11 days ago in Oklahoma, and the Thunder came away with a 113-92 victory, as a 3-point home underdog.  We'll take the Rockets in this re-match, as they're 24-13 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 11-1 ATS if they failed to cover the spread by more than 18 points in that defeat.  Houston also falls into a 197-128 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Rockets.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Charlotte.  The Magic stumbled badly in their last two games -- at the Clippers and at the Warriors -- as they lost by 27 and 14 points, respectively.  But Orlando had covered seven of eight prior to those two games.  The loss at Golden State was particularly embarrassing, as the Warriors were on a 10-game losing streak entering that game.  But teams off upset losses to foes on long losing streaks tend to bounce back in their next game, and the Magic fall into a 60.8% ATS system of mine which plays on such teams.  Orlando's 14-6 ATS as a road favorite of less than 6 points, while Charlotte's an awful 20-36-2 ATS off a loss by 7 or more points.  Take the Magic.

At 6:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Green Bay.  Last week, we played on the Packers and were rewarded with a 28-23 victory over Seattle.  And that was Green Bay's 6th straight win, overall.  Unfortunately, its win streak should come to a screeching halt this weekend, as it falls into a negative system, which is 5-35 SU and 9-31 ATS.  What we want to do is play AGAINST any underdog of +3 (or more) points off 5+ wins, if it's now playing a foe with a winning record.  And even though there's nothing wrong with 31-9 ATS, we can improve our situation to 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS by solely going against teams that don't average 24.85 points per game on offense.  It's absolutely true that Green Bay will certainly want to avenge its blowout loss here earlier in the season.  But revenge-minded NFL teams have performed very poorly in Conference Championship road games, as they've gone 16-28 ATS.  Also, the 49ers are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS as home favorites priced from -3 to -7.5 points in the Playoffs.  And NFL favorites, priced from -3.5 to -9.5 points have gone 30-15 ATS in Conference Championship games.  Take the 49ers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Sacramento.  The Jazz are one of the league's hottest teams, with 15 wins in their last 17 games (11-4-2 ATS), though they did lose their most recent game this past Thursday, at New Orleans.  In contrast, the Kings are mired in a 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS stretch.  But Utah's an awesome 32-6 SU and 27-10-1 ATS at home when both it, and its foe were off losses (including 15-1-1 ATS when priced from -4.5 to -10 points).  And it also falls into a 73% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off SU/ATS losses.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the West minus the points.  The West has dominated the East-West Shrine game of late, with 4 straight wins.  And, in those four games, the East squad has averaged 9.7 ppg.  That doesn't bode well for the East team on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that the East's three QBs are Tommy Stevens (Miss State), Kevin Davidson (Princeton) and James Morgan (Florida International).  In contrast, the West has the best QB (Mason Fine, North Texas) on its roster, along with Tyler Huntley (Utah) and Kelly Bryant (Missouri).  Lay the points with the West in the Shrine game on Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Columbus Blue Jackets.  This is a huge revenge game for Carolina, which has lost both prior meetings to the Jackets this season.  But we'll take the Hurricanes to avenge those defeats, as they come into this game off a rare shutout loss, 2-0, to the Capitals on Monday.  But Carolina is a perfect 3-0 this season off a shutout defeat.  Coincidentally, the Blue Jackets come into this game off back-to-back shutout wins.  Unfortunately, Columbus is a poor 3-7 this season after allowing less than 3 goals in each of their two previous games.   Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Manhattan Jaspers minus the points over Quinnipiac.  The Jaspers' leading scorer, Tykei Greene (12.1 ppg), has been upgraded to 'probable' for tonight's game.  And that's all I needed to pull the trigger on Manhattan, as Manhattan falls into a 125-55 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset wins.   The Jaspers have gotten off to a 3-1 start in MAAC play this season, even though they've been underdogs in three of their four games, including an upset win as a 2.5-point home dog vs. Siena their previous game.  Manhattan's 55-34 ATS off a conference win, while the Bobcats are a poor 9-17 ATS off back to back wins, including 2-10 ATS if their last win was by double-digits.  Lay the points with Manhattan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs came back from an 18-point deficit to stun the Raptors on Sunday, 105-104.  San Antonio was a 5-point underdog in that game.  However, the Spurs are still a horrible 4-42 straight-up, and 19-26-1 ATS when installed as a road underdog of +4 or more points.  Meanwhile, the Heat are 44-17-2 ATS off back to back losses when playing an opponent off a SU win.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over Vancouver.  Winnipeg was blanked, 1-0, at home on Sunday by Nashville.  And that was the Jets' 2nd shutout loss this season.  The first time was back on November 12, when the Avalanche defeated Winnipeg, 4-0.  Winnipeg bounced back nicely in its next game, as it won at Florida, 4-3, as a +150 underdog.  And that's been par for the course for the Jets, as they're an awesome 8-0 (+9 games on the money line) the past 3 seasons after a shutout loss, and also 7-1 this season after scoring less than 2 goals in their previous game.  Even better:  Vancouver will be playing its 3rd game in 4 nights, and it's a poor 17-26 in that scheduling situation.  Take Winnipeg.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the LA Clippers.  The Clippers finished their 4-game home stand with back-to-back wins over the Knicks and Warriors, but they failed to cover the spread in each game.  Los Angeles will now travel to the Pepsi Center to play a Nuggets team which surely will be in an ornery mood following its upset loss yesterday.  And perhaps the Nuggets were looking ahead to this match-up vs. the Clippers when they played the Cavaliers last night.  Because, clearly, Denver didn't show up.  The Nuggets were favored by 12.5 points, but lost, 111-103, to the woeful Cavs.  And that's continued a trend this season where the Nuggets have lost to many of the league's worst clubs (e.g., Kings, Hawks, Pelicans (twice), Wizards).  Denver, typically, has bounced back from such embarrassing losses, as they've gone 6-0 the past two years after losing to a team with a win percentage below .300.  Also, some good news for Denver, tonight is that the Clippers' Paul George won't suit up due to a hamstring injury.  Even better:  the Nuggets have won and covered nine of the last 12 meetings here vs. the Clippers, including 21 and 27-point victories last season.  Finally, the Clippers are an awful 3-23 straight-up, and 4-22 ATS as a single-digit underdog (or PK) in non-division games, if the Clippers won their previous game, straight-up.  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Oklahoma.  The Cyclones were blown out by Kansas, 79-53, on Wednesday, and fell to 0-2 in Big 12 Conference play.  But I love them to bounce back tonight, here at home, vs. Oklahoma.  ISU has been installed as a small home favorite.  And the Cyclones are an awesome 43-22 ATS as single-digit home favorites off a conference defeat.  Moreover, the Cyclones have dominated the Sooners, with a 33-16 ATS record, including 9-2 ATS their last 11.  Finally, Iowa State falls into 29-2, 41-11 and 123-61 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off back to back losses.  Take Iowa State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Philadelphia.  We played on Boston last night vs. San Antonio, and were on the wrong side of that game, as the Spurs blew out the Celtics, 129-114.  But off that loss, I look for Brad Stevens' men to rebound tonight against their division rival.  And Boston will catch a break, as Sixers big man, Joel Embiid, will be sidelined for tonight's game (and the foreseeable future) with a dislocated finger.  In Embiid's stead, tonight, will be veteran power forward Al Horford, who played the last three seasons in Boston.  Unfortunately for Philadelphia, Horford's best days are now behind him, as he's shooting a career-worst 45% from the field.  And, yes, it's true that this will be Boston's 5th game in seven nights.  But since Stevens assumed the coaching duties in 2013, the Celtics are a jaw-dropping 14-0 ATS as a road underdog when playing their fifth game in seven nights.  Additionally, the Celtics are 16-6 ATS under Stevens in the regular season when playing with double-revenge.  Take Boston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks + the points over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Rajin' Cajuns have been installed as two-touchdown favorites this evening.  Unfortunately, big favorites have not fared well in the Bowls over the years.  Indeed, double-digit underdogs have gone 4-2 this bowl season, and 58-46-1 ATS dating back to 1980.  And if their opponent wasn't off a SU/ATS win, then our 58-46-1 stat zooms to 36-20-1 ATS.  That bodes well for Miami tonight.  As does the fact that the RedHawks are 10-3-1 ATS off an upset win vs. foes off a loss.  Finally, .500 (or better) Sun Belt conference teams are an awful 0-11-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes off a win.  Take Miami-Ohio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Philadelphia/Seattle game.  These two teams met earlier this season -- here in Philly -- and the Seahawks won a very low-scoring game, 17-9.  And that's been par for the course for Philadelphia here, as the Eagles have now gone 'under' the total in their last six (and in 24 of their last 34) home games.  And they've also gone 'under' the total 7-1-1 in their last nine home NFL Playoff games.  Additionally, the 'under' is 33-18 in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 3.  And this game (to go 'under') also falls into a 23-3 Totals system of mine, which is statistically-based.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Buffalo/Houston game.  The Buffalo Bills have now played six straight games that totaled 41 or less points.  And outside of their two games vs. Miami, none of their other 14 games equaled the posted total for this game.  And it's not just on the defensive side of the ball where points are hard-earned; the Bills, themselves, have scored just 6, 17, and 17 in their three previous games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for yet another low-scoring Buffalo game on this Saturday.  But knee-jerk reactions are often the wrong move.  Indeed, teams (like Buffalo) that scored 42 or less points over their three previous games have gone 'over' the total 75 percent of the time over the last 26 seasons.  And these two teams also fall into 57-33 and 53-32 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Houston.  Brett Brown's Sixers were blown out by the Pacers on Tuesday, 115-97.  And that was Philly's 3rd straight loss, overall -- all on the road.  But I look for the 76ers to bounce back in the underdog role tonight, at Houston, as NBA road teams have gone 281-228 ATS in the regular season off a double-digit SU/ATS loss, if they weren't getting more than 6 points, and their opponent was off a straight-up win, including 42-14 ATS vs. .625 (or better) non-division foes.  Even better:  rested NBA road teams have gone 179-122 ATS in the regular season off 3 straight road losses, if now playing a winning opponent.  Take the 76ers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Arlington Mavericks minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Mavericks hope to win the Sun Belt Conference this season (after finishing 2nd the past two seasons).  The Mavs were the preseason #2 pick to win the Sun Belt Conference this season, in part, because they returned five starters from last year's team which went 12-6 inside the conference.  But they've gotten off to an 0-2 start, after road losses at Georgia State (last season's champ) and Georgia Southern (12-6 last season).  I look for them to break through tonight, and earn their first conference win, against a Red Wolves team which returned just one starter from the team which finished ninth (7-11) in the league last season.  Arlington is 53-32-4 ATS off a loss.  And it also falls into a super 73.2% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Take Texas Arlington minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the St Johns Red Storm + the points over Butler.  These two teams met here last February, and the Johnnies upset Butler, 77-73, as a 3.5-point home dog.  At the time of that game, both teams had losing 5-6 records in Conference play.  But both teams look to be improved this season.  Butler's 12-1, while St. John's is 11-2 SU and 7-4-1 ATS thus far.  Butler's been installed as a road favorite, once again.  But we'll take the home team tonight, as .800 (or better) home dogs, with a winning ATS record, have cashed 60% over the last 30 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Moreover, Butler's a dismal 5-16 ATS away from home vs. conference foes, including 1-12 ATS with revenge.  Take St. John's.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Yale.  The Tar Heels have been installed as a single-digit home favorite vs. the Bulldogs.  And, over the years, the Tar Heels have dominated non-conference foes here in Chapel Hill.  Since 1990, North Carolina's gone 149-16 straight-up, and 101-62-2 ATS in its lined games at home vs. non-conference opposition.  And if UNC was playing a top-level opponent with a win percentage greater than .750, then UNC has been even better -- 52-3 straight-up, and 39-16 ATS, including 12-1 ATS when priced from -3.5 to -10!  Take North Carolina minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the NY Islanders over Minnesota.  The Wild exploded for six goals at Colorado, on Friday, as they won their second straight game.  This evening, they're back home, and will welcome the Islanders to Xcel Energy Center.  The Isles lost, 5-2, at Chicago on Friday.  And that was their 3rd straight loss, overall, as they succumbed, 3-2, on Monday to Columbus, and 6-5 to Anaheim two days before that.  I look for New York to rebound this evening, as it's a super 19-4 after not scoring 3+ goals in either of its two previous games.  Even better:  the Wild are a dreadful 7-21 (minus 20 games on the money line) off a win over a division rival.  And Minny's also 25-41 (minus 23 games on the money line) after scoring 3+ goals in back to back games.  Take the Islanders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Golden State.  Last night, the Mavs upset Phoenix here, at home, 105-96.  But off that win, we'll fade the Warriors, as unrested home underdogs off an upset win at home the previous day, have cashed just 21.7% vs. rested opponents since 1990.  Take the Mavericks to blow out Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Pittsburgh.  This Quick Lane Bowl game will be played in the backyard of Eastern Michigan, as Detroit's Ford Field is just 36 miles away from Ypsilanti.  So, the crowd will definitely lean in favor of the underdog.  Pitt comes into this game off back to back losses -- and failed to cover the spread in those defeats by 16 and 24.5 points -- yet it's laying almost two touchdowns to the Eagles.  I have all the respect in the world for the job Pat Narduzzi is doing at Pittsburgh, as his team ranks #11 in defense this season (302.5 ypg).  But one of the things I will RARELY do in a bowl game is lay a lot of points -- and especially if the favored team isn't one of the best teams in the country (like an Alabama, LSU, Ohio State or Clemson-type of team).  And Pitt is certainly not of that caliber.  Another thing I will rarely do is lay ANY amount of points with a team which isn't playing well.  It's one thing to TAKE points with a team off a loss, or back-to-back losses to end the season.  But quite another to lay points with such clubs.  To wit:  since 2004, Bowl favorites, priced from -7.5 to -17.5 points, off back to back losses, are 0-11 ATS!  And, speaking of 11-0 ATS, that's the Eagles' point spread record away from home vs. non-conference teams when Eastern Michigan wasn't getting more than 15 points.  Finally, Pitt is a wallet-busting 8-22 ATS when laying 8+ points away from home, including 0-10 ATS if it failed to cover the spread in its previous game by double-digits.  Take Eastern Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Golden State.  The Warriors enter today on a rare 2-game win streak (their first win streak of the season).  But the Warriors have not performed well off a win, as they're 11-28-1 ATS their last 40, including 0-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs.  And, speaking of double-digit underdogs...they're a miserable 25.3% ATS at home off a home win since 1990, provided their win percentage was less than .400.  Take Houston minus the points.  NBA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over BYU.  The Cougars mustered just 3 points in their final regular season game -- a 13-3 defeat at San Diego St.  And that was their fourth straight point spread defeat to end the season.  Hawaii, in contrast, covered three of its last four games (and won four of its last five).  We'll fade BYU tonight, as it's a horrid 0-6 ATS this season as a favorite.  Even worse:  teams that scored less than 7 points in their previous game have covered just 13.3% in the Bowls over the last 40 years provided they weren't getting 5+ points, and also not playing with revenge.  And BYU isn't playing with revenge here, as it defeated Hawaii in Provo last year, 49-23, as an 11-point favorite.  This game, however, is in Honolulu.  And home underdogs have covered 64.1% in the post-season since 1980.  Finally, Hawaii's a super 22-3 ATS at home, if it owned a winning record, and didn't fail to cover the spread in the previous meeting by more than 15 points.  Take the Rainbow Warriors + the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore.  The Ravens have won 10 straight games (their last loss was to these Browns), and are the odds-on favorite to be the #1 seed in the AFC Conference.  But the point spreads of really good teams tend to be inflated late in the season.  And this game is a perfect example, as Cleveland is getting double-digits at home (which is roughly the same point spread dealt in Baltimore's road game at then-winless Cincinnati in mid-October).  We'll grab the points with the Browns, as home underdogs of +9 (or more) points have gone 14-0 ATS in the season's final four weeks vs. .833 (or better) opponents.  Additionally, the Ravens have covered just 3 of 19 road games off a win by 18+ points, and have also covered just 16 of 41 vs. foes playing their final home game of the season.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Washington Capitals.  We played on Washington last night at New Jersey, but will switch gears and go against Alex Ovechkin & Co. tonight.  This will be the 3rd time in 23 days that these two teams have faced off.  And perhaps the 3rd time will be the charm for the Lightning tonight, as they'll seek to avenge losses in those two prior games.  Tampa blew a 3-1 lead in its game two nights ago, and fell in overtime to the Dallas Stars.  But if there was a silver lining in that defeat, it's that Tampa played extremely well, and out-shot the Stars 48-20.  Perhaps Tampa is starting to turn the corner, as it's 5-3-1 its last nine games, and was out-shot in just two of those nine games (compared to being out-shot in 13 of its first 24 games).  I look for the Lightning's solid play to continue tonight, and it will have an advantage by being rested, while the Caps had to play last night.  Also, Tampa is a super 53-21 its last 73 after allowing more than three goals in its previous game.  Take the Lightning.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors over New Orleans.  The Pelicans come into this game off a win over Minnesota.  But the Timberwolves have now lost eight games in a row.  And the Pelicans had lost 13 in a row before Wednesday's win.  But it wasn't just that New Orleans had lost 13 straight -- it also was 0-9-1 ATS in its 10 previous games.  With that as a backdrop, it's tough to make an argument for laying points on the road with New Orleans -- even against a team like Golden State which has lost its last five games.  But the Warriors have been competitive this year, and have played hard, even if they haven't won games.  Indeed, the Warriors are 12-11 ATS off a loss this season.  And that compares favorably to New Orleans' 35.7% ATS record this season, which is the 2nd-worst of the 30 NBA teams.  Golden State is a terrific 38-18 ATS at home off a loss when matched-up against foes off a win, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when priced from -3 to +2 points.  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Montreal Canadiens.  This will be Calgary's fourth home game in a row, and its final one before heading out on a three-game road trip.  After a loss to the Penguins on Tuesday, the Flames are 1-2 on this home-stand, so a victory tonight would even up that four-game record.  Tonight, it's the Canadiens who come into town for the first meeting between these two in over a year (November 15, 2018).  And although the Habs have won the last three in row, they've all been close affairs (3-2 finals in each).  It's a banged-up Canadiens squad which will be visiting Scotiabank Saddledome this evening to take on an almost completely healthy Calgary club.  Montreal bounced back from an embarrassing loss to the lowly Red Wings on Saturday to beat the Canucks on Tuesday despite being out-shot 39-30.  They could have trouble scoring on a Flames defense that is a half-goal stingier at home than it is on the road this season (2.71 GA vs. 3.21).  The Flames are 8-4 in their last 12 (+4 games on the money line) after allowing more than three goals in their previous game.  Meanwhile, the Canadiens are 22-31 in their last 53 (-9 games on the money line) after a victory by two or more goals.  Take Calgary.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Grand Canyon Antelopes + the points over New Mexico.  Dan Majerle's men are 4-8 this season, but they've had to deal with the fact that two projected starters were in street clothes.  One of those -- 6'2" point guard Mikey Dixon -- will make his season debut tonight, while the other -- 6'7" forward Oscar Frayer -- also may play if his eligibility is approved by the NCAA.  Dixon was the former MAA Conference Freshman of the Year, while Frayer has started for Grand Canyon each of the previous three years, and is among the school's career statistical leaders in several categories.  In its last game, New Mexico got a huge, emotional win over its rival, New Mexico State.  But the Lobos are a soft 3-7 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win over New Mexico State, and 2-8 ATS off a point spread win, if they're matched up against non-conference foes.  And they also fall into a negative 224-414 ATS system of mine which goes against certain double-digit favorites.  Take Grand Canyon + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs defeated the Houston Rockets in double-overtime earlier this month, 135-133, behind 28 points from Lonnie Walker IV.  That game -- one in which Houston held a 22-point, 3rd quarter lead -- was made even more frustrating because the referees blew a call on a 4th quarter James Harden dunk, which was erroneously ruled as an invalid basket.  The Rockets protested the loss afterward, but did the league denied the Rockets' appeal.  Tonight, Houston will have an opportunity to avenge that loss.  And the Spurs likely will be without their star from that game, as Walker has been sidelined with a bruised knee.  San Antonio is a dreadful 4-38 straight-up, and 12-29-1 ATS as an underdog of +4 (or more) points vs. Western Conference rivals.  Even better:  it's 0-9 ATS this season off a straight-up win (and 3-16 ATS since March 20 off a win).  Meanwhile, the Rockets are 13-2 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss in which they were favored by 3+ points.  Lay the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Tennessee.  We had our biggest NFL play of the year-to-date two weeks ago when the Texans met the Patriots, and pulled off a 28-22 upset.  We then, not surprisingly, went against the Texans last week vs. Denver, as a letdown was in order, and they certainly had one, as they lost outright to the Broncos, as an 8-point favorite.  But I love Houston to bounce back this afternoon vs. the Titans.  Indeed, since 1980, divisional road underdogs, off an upset loss by more than 10 points the previous week, are 86-49-4 ATS.  It's absolutely true that Tennessee is red-hot, and on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak.  But unrested teams off 4 SU/ATS wins are a soft 107-138 ATS vs. winning opponents.  Finally, the Texans are 15-6 ATS their last 21 vs. Tennessee, including a perfect 8-0 ATS if the Texans failed to cover their previous game by more than 3 points.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over New York.  Sacramento's first road win of this season was against these Knicks back on November 3, when it blew them out, 113-92.  That was the 4th straight win by the Kings in this series.  And it continued a long-term run of success vs. the Eastern Conference, as Sacramento's 40-14-2 ATS its last 56 vs. the East.  So, we'll back them tonight at home vs. a Knicks team off a rare win.  New York upset Golden State on Wednesday, 124-122, as a 4.5-point road underdog.  That win snapped its 10-game losing streak, and earned interim coach Mike Miller his first win.  Still, New York's yet to win back-to-back games this season (0-4 SU; 1-3 ATS), and is 25-38-1 ATS off a win, including 8-20-1 ATS vs. a foe off a point spread loss.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over Philadelphia.  The Flyers will start goalie Carter Hart tonight.  And he's been awful on the road this season, with a 2-4-1 record, 3.78 GAA, and .849 Saves %.  Even worse:  Travis Konecny, the Flyers' leading scorer (28 points; 11 goals), sustained a concussion on Saturday night, and will be sidelined.  To replace Konecny on the top line, coach Alain Vigneault decided to elevate Tyler Pitlick from the 4th line, which will give the Avs a big advantage when their top line is on the ice.  Colorado, of course, has its own injuries, and hopes to start Philipp Grubauer, who is banged-up, tonight.  Grubauer did practice on Tuesday, and will be re-evaluated this morning before a final decision is reached.  If Grubauer -- who has won his last four starts -- can't go, then Pavel Francouz will man the pipes.  And all Francouz has done this season is lead the Avalanche to a 7-3 record in his starts (including a perfect 3-0 vs. Eastern Conference foes).  Overall, the Avs are 8-1-2 this season vs. foes from the Eastern Conference.  And they are also 8-3-2 at home, while leading the NHL in shooting (11.6%; 3.7 goals on 31.8 shots per game).  Take Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Northern Iowa.  This is a great match-up tonight between the 24th-ranked, and 7-1 Buffs vs. the 8-1 Panthers.  We'll lay the points with the home team, as Colorado is a fantastic 89-50-4 ATS when playing at home, and not favored by 17+ points (including 8-0-1 ATS its last nine), while the Panthers are a horrid 0-11 ATS away from home vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss that didn't have a winning ATS record.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Chicago.  We played on Toronto yesterday, but lost when they fell to defeat for the 3rd straight game.  But we will get right back on the Raptors, as .562 (or better) NBA teams have cashed 66.3% ATS in the regular season since 1990 off 3 or more losses, if they were favored by more than 2 points on the road.  Additionally, the Raptors have won the last 10 games in this series, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS here in Chicago.  Lay the points.  NBA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Kansas City.  Last week, we had our strongest NFL play of the season-to-date on the Houston Texans + over New England.  And we easily got the $$$ in an outright right by DeShaun Watson & Co.  But we'll switch gears this Sunday, and take the Patriots off that defeat.  Indeed, there's no better coach in the business than Bill Belichick when it comes to readying his troops to rebound off a loss.  To wit:  the Patriots are 49-9 straight-up, and 42-16 ATS (72.4%) when coming off a loss (compared to 175-56 SU and 131-94 ATS (58.2%)) when coming off a win.  It's true that the Chiefs will be playing this game with revenge from last year's playoff defeat.  But New England is 5-1-1 ATS when priced from -3 to -6.5 against a foe which has revenge from a playoff loss.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 3-7 SU/ATS when playing with Playoff revenge.  Lay the points with New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs + the points over LSU.  The Bulldogs have lost just once this season.  And that was a 20-17 setback vs. South Carolina, in a game where the Bulldogs committed four turnovers (against 0 for the Gamecocks).  The calling card for this Georgia team is its defense, as the only time it has given up 20 points in a game was that loss to South Carolina.  For the season, Georgia's given up just 10.4 ppg, while LSU's defense rates 11.66 ppg worse, at 22.1.  We'll take the points with the Bulldogs, as underdogs with a defense which gives up, at least, 7.9 less points than its opponent, have gone 35-14-1 ATS in the post-season.  Additionally, the Bulldogs are an awesome 24-7 ATS their last 31 away from home.  Take the Bulldogs + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New Jersey Devils over the Chicago Blackhawks.  It's not that long ago that these two hockey clubs were two of the best the NHL had to offer.  Times have changed however and now it's safe to say that both the Blackhawks and Devils are clearly in "rebuilding mode."  To say that this season has been a struggle for both of these teams would be quite an understatement as the Devils have won just nine games (and fired their head coach earlier this week), while the 'Hawks have gone just two better (11-17).  And both of them are in the cellars of their respective divisions.  But in a head-to-head meeting, we have to give the edge to New Jersey.  For one thing, the Devils have gotten the better of the Blackhawks recently, taking three of the last four meetings going back about two years.  Second, the home team has been pretty dominant lately, taking the last three meetings (two here at Prudential Center).  And, although they've struggled mightily this season, the Devils still are 31-21 (+17 games on the money line) in their last 52 after allowing three goals or more in three straight games.  I look for the home team to give their new coach, Alain Nasreddine, his first win behind the bench.  Take New Jersey.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Michigan.  This is the best match-up of the season-to-date, and the final non-conference game for each team before they each have their conference home opener on Friday.  The #1 Louisville Cardinals are now 7-0 after a blowout win over Western Kentucky on Friday, while Juwan Howard's Wolverines are also 7-0, and ranked #4 in the country following back to back upsets of Gonzaga and North Carolina last week.  We'll play against Michigan, as .833 (or better) teams, off back to back upset wins, have gone 15-40-2 ATS vs. non-conference foes off a SU win, including 4-20 ATS if their opponent was playing with at least 3 days of rest.  Take Louisville.  College Hoops Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Minnesota.  This is a great match-up tonight between two teams that still have an opportunity to get the #1 seed in the NFC.  These teams have met five times this decade, and the Seahawks have won each of those games, and covered all but one.  I look for them to extend their win streak in this series to 6 straight, as the Seahawks are 67-25 SU and 53-36-3 ATS at home their last 92, including 33-17-2 ATS when not favored by 7+ points.  Even better:  Monday Night home teams off back to back road wins have gone 26-9 ATS, while the Vikings have gone 0-8 ATS their last eight Monday Night road games. Take the Seahawks...Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Pittsburgh/Cleveland game.  This is a critical game for the AFC Playoff picture.  And the victor will be in a very good position to eventually snag the 6th, and final wild card spot.  Last week, the Cleveland Browns had their best offensive day of the season, when they scored 41 points vs. Miami.  And over his last three games, QB Baker Mayfield has been excellent, with seven touchdowns, and just one interception.  Over those three games, the Browns have averaged 27 ppg on offense.  The Steelers' offense has sputtered lately, so they've made a change at the quarterback position, and will start Devlin "Duck" Hodges, the former Samford star (and all-time FCS passing leader, with 14,584 career yards).  Hodges made one start earlier this season, and it was a positive one, as the Steelers went into Los Angeles, and upset the Chargers, 24-17.  I've liked what I've seen of Hodges when he's played this season (both in that start vs. the Charges, and as a relief QB).  And he's a definite upgrade over the erstwhile starter, Mason Rudolph.  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Liberty Flames minus the points over New Mexico State.  The Aggies are 2-9 on the season, while Liberty is 6-5.  So, this will be the final game of the season for the Aggies.  Interestingly, this will be the 2nd time this season that these two teams have played each other, as they met in Las Cruces back in October.  The Flames won that game, 20-13, as a 4-point favorite.  And I look for them to sweep the season series with a blowout win, on Saturday.  It will be Liberty's final home game of the season, of course.  And New Mexico State is an awful 5-15 ATS on the road against a foe playing its final home game.  Even worse:  it's 4-44 straight-up and 16-35 ATS on the road when not favored by 4+ points.  Finally, Liberty falls into my favorite College Football system, which is 91-41 ATS, and plays on certain teams off a loss when matched up against an opponent off a win.  Take the Flames.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Arkansas.  Both of these teams are mired in long losing streaks.  The Tigers are 0-5 SU/ATS their last five games, while Arkansas has lost its last eight games (2-6 ATS).  But in November, the Tigers have been much more competitive than Arkansas, as Missouri's failed to cover the spread by just 8.3 ppg, while Arkansas has failed to cover the spread by an average of 15.16 ppg.  It's somewhat counter-intuitive, but since 1981, losing teams, off ATS losses in each of their last four games, have actually covered 67.7% as big, double-digit favorites.  And Missouri also falls into an 83-31 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses.  Finally, the Tigers are 9-0 ATS since 1986 off 5 straight losses.  Take Missouri.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bills are 8-3 on the season, yet have been installed as a big underdog at Dallas this afternoon.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab the points with Buffalo given that it's lost by more than six points just once this season.  But consider that .700 (or better) road underdogs of 5+ points, off back-to-back wins, have cashed just 22.5% in the regular season since 1986, at Game 12 forward.  That doesn't bode well for the Bills today.  Nor does the fact that they're 0-16-1 ATS off back-to-back point spread wins when matched up against a .666 (or worse) foe not off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals minus the points over Western Illinois.  This will be the Leathernecks' 2nd road game of the season.  And the first didn't go so well, as they were blown out by 33-points in Bloomington by the Indiana Hoosiers.  Western Illinois is now 29-53-1 ATS as a road underdog, including 0-12 ATS as an underdog priced from +11 to +18 points vs. non-conference foes.  And the Leathernecks also fall into a negative 58-136 ATS system of mine which goes against certain double-digit road underdogs.  Take Ball State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins over BYU.  Both of these teams come into tonight's game off upset losses.  The Bruins fell at home, 88-78, to Hofstra, while BYU lost at Boise State, 72-68.  We'll take Mick Cronin's men tonight, and go against BYU, which is an awful 21-53-3 ATS at home, or on neutral courts, when not laying more than 3 points.   Meanwhile, Pac-12 Conference teams have cashed 66.0% off an upset loss as an 8-point (or greater) favorite, if their current game was at home, or on a neutral court.  Take UCLA.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Washington.  After a promising 2-0-1 start, which included wins over the Chargers and Eagles, Detroit has dropped six of seven games.  Of course, it also must be noted that Detroit's one win in this stretch was against the Giants, who have a losing record, at 2-8.  And, for the season, Detroit's gone 3-1-1 in its five games against teams that currently have a .500 (or worse) record (Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Bears, Giants).  In contrast, Detroit's 0-5 vs. teams that currently have a winning record (Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, Cowboys, Vikings).  That bodes well for the Lions in this game on Sunday afternoon, against the 1-9 Redskins.  As does the fact that losing NFL teams, off back to back losses, have gone 40-15 ATS as road favorites of more than 3 points.  Finally, Washington's 15-31 ATS at home vs. teams that didn't own a winning record.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Boise State.  Both teams come into this game with issues at the quarterback position.  Utah State's Jordan Love suffered an undisclosed injury last Saturday vs. Wyoming, and is questionable for this week.  Likewise, Boise State used its 3rd string quarterback, Jaylon Henderson, vs. New Mexico last week.  Henderson did pass for 3 touchdowns and 292 yards in that game -- a 42-9 win, as a 24.5-point favorite -- to earn Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week honors.  But it must be said that Henderson's performance came against a Lobos team which is the worst Division I (FBS) team on Boise's schedule this season.  The Aggies, at 5-1 in Mountain West games this year, will be a much more difficult test. Even worse for Boise:  its top defensive player -- Curtis Weaver -- hurt his right leg last week, and also might be in street clothes for this game.  We'll grab the points with Utah State on Saturday night, in its final home game of the season, as the Aggies fall into a strong conference system.  What we want to do is play on Mountain West home teams with a winning record -- both within the conference and overall -- if they're not favored by 6+ points.  Such teams have covered 67 percent, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when getting more than 3 points in their final home game of the season.  And Mountain West conference teams, regardless of their record, have also gone 41-24 ATS as underdogs in their final home game of the season.  Take the Aggies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Central Michigan.  The Chippewas come into this game with a spotless 4-0 record.  Of course, that's to be expected as their games were against Michigan-Dearborn, Mississippi Valley St., Sam Houston St. and Siena Heights.  Minnesota, meanwhile, is 1-3, but its last three games were against Oklahoma, Butler and Utah, all of whom rate better than the Gophers.  In its lone game this season against an inferior opponent (Cleveland St.), the Gophers walloped them, 85-50, as a 22-point favorite.  Minnesota is also favored by double-digits tonight.  And the Gophers fall into an 62.2% ATS system of mine which plays on certain big favorites with inferior records.  Minnesota's also 34-19 ATS as a non-conference favorite, priced from -3 to -21, while Central Michigan is a wallet-busting 17-35-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes off a loss, including 0-8-1 ATS when priced from +6.5 to +16.5 points.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Princeton.  The Tigers enter tonight's game on an 0-3 SU/ATS run to start the season, while Indiana is 4-0 straight-up, and 3-1 ATS.  I look for Archie Miller's men to register another blowout win tonight, as Indiana is a spectacular 73-43 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes when favored by 10+ points.  Meanwhile, Princeton is a wallet-busting 4-29 straight-up and 8-24-1 ATS as an underdog, including 0-15 ATS in the regular season when the Tigers weren't off a win!  Take the Hoosiers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  We played on Northern Illinois last Wednesday, at Toledo, and got the $$$ with it in a 31-28 victory, as a road underdog.  That moved the Huskies' record to 4-6 on the season.  So, if it wins its final two games, then it will become bowl-eligible.  We'll play on Northern Illinois tonight as a home favorite, as losing teams (at Game 9 forward) have cashed 65.1% since 1980 if they were off a win, and favored at home by 3 (or more) points over a conference foe off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  Northern Illinois has gone 15-2 ATS off an upset win over a conference foe, including a perfect 11-0 when favored by 3+ points.  And Eastern Michigan is a woeful 12-30 ATS on the road off a straight-up win.  Take the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the KC Chiefs/Los Angeles Chargers game.  Kansas City's last three games have each gone 'over' the total, and those three games combined for 171 total points (55, 49 and 67).  But I look for a lower scoring game tonight, as NFL games have gone UNDER 167-117 (59%) since 1980, including 15-4 (79%) UNDER on Monday Night Football, when the O/U line was 47+ points -- provided one of the teams was off 3 OVERS, and its previous three games combined to exceed 160 total points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Chicago Bears game.  Both of these teams enter tonight's contest off a string of relatively-low scoring games.  The Bears' last three games have all gone 'under' the total, while the Rams have gone 'under' in four straight games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low scoring game here, especially since last season's game between these two teams only produced 21 points (Chicago 15 Los Angeles 6).  But, over the last 40 seasons, match-ups between two teams that have each gone 'under' the total in each of their previous three games actually go 'OVER' the total more often than not.  Even better:  the Rams have gone 'OVER' the total in 12 of their last 13 games when they had gone 'under' in each of their four previous games, and they've also gone 'over' the total 33 of 55 games if their opponent was off three 'unders.'  Likewise, since 1980, the Bears have gone 'over' the total 62% of the time if their opponent was off four 'unders.'  Finally, the 'OVER' falls into a totals system of mine which is 61-34 since 1980.  Take the 'OVER.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Minnesota.  Last week, we played on the Gophers + the points over Penn State, and were rewarded with a 31-26 upset victory over the then-undefeated Nittany Lions.  But off that upset win over Penn State, we'll fade Minnesota on Saturday.  For technical support, consider that teams off upset wins over undefeated opponents (that hadn't lost through at least their first 7 games) have had letdowns the following week, and especially on the road where they've covered just 38.0%.  But that's not the best part.  If our 'play-against' team (here, Minnesota) is now playing an opponent with a .666 (or better) record, then our road teams have covered just 13.3% since 1983.  Take Iowa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs come into this game on an 8-game win streak, and are one game ahead of Southern Miss in the West division race.  Marshall also is in prime contention to make the Conference USA Title game, as it's 4-1 in conference play, and is a half-game behind Florida Atlantic in the East division standings.  We'll take the home team tonight, and go against Louisiana Tech, as unrested underdogs of +3 (or more) points, on a 6-game (or better) win streak, have covered the spread in just 33.9% of their conference games since 1980.  Even worse for the Bulldogs:  they're an awful 4-25 straight-up, and 8-21 ATS as road underdogs of +5 (or more) points off a win.  Take Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over New York.  This is a big revenge game for the Mavericks, who lost at home to New York last Friday, 106-102, as an 11-point favorite.  Since that game, the Mavs have gone 1-1, including a loss at Boston on Monday.  But I love Dallas to rebound tonight, as it's 20-8 ATS on the road off a loss, including 5-0 ATS as a favorite.  And it's 24-12 ATS its last 36 as a road favorite off a defeat.  Meanwhile, New York is an awful 17-39-2 ATS at home when not favored by more than 3 points.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Toledo.  The Huskies come into this game off a 48-10 upset loss at Central Michigan.  But off that poor performance, we'll look for Northern Illinois to bounce back tonight.  Indeed, road underdogs off a 37-point (or worse) upset loss, have cashed 75% in Conference games since 1990 vs. opponents off a straight-up win.  Also, Northern Illinois is a super 42-24 ATS their last 66 as road underdogs, including 3-1 ATS off an upset loss.  Take the Huskies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Ottawa Senators.  This is the 2nd game of a home-and-home series, which commenced Saturday, in Ottawa.  The homestanding Senators won that game, 4-1, which was Carolina's fourth straight defeat (by an aggregate score of 17-7).  But now the Hurricanes are back home.  And they're 9-2 after allowing more than three goals in four straight games.  That bodes well for Carolina on Monday.  As does the fact that Ottawa is an awful 2-18 on the road after scoring more than 3 goals in its previous game, and also 4-16 after winning back-to-back games.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Buffalo.  The Browns are 2-6 on the season, and lost as a road favorite last week in Denver.  Meanwhile, Buffalo is 6-2, and won and covered its last game -- at home -- vs. the Redskins.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the 6-2 Bills as an underdog, especially given that the Browns have lost their last four games.  But consider that NFL underdogs have covered 0 of 9 games in the 2nd half of the season if they owned a win percentage at least .400 greater than their opponent.  That doesn't bode well for the Bills on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that teams off 4+ losses, including an upset defeat in their previous game, have cashed 70% since 2001 when not getting more than 3 points.  Take Cleveland to blow out Buffalo.  Lay the points. NFL Favorite of the Month!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Louisville.  Last week, we played on the Cardinals as a home underdog vs. Virginia, and got the $$$ in a 28-21 upset victory.  But we will switch gears, and go against Louisville on the road this week.  They'll travel to south Florida to take on a 5-4 Miami squad playing their final home game of the season.  And the Hurricanes are returning home after upset road wins at Pittsburgh, and at Florida State.  And I love them to extend their win streak on Saturday, as they've cashed 91% over the last 40 seasons off an upset conference win the previous week.  Additionally, winning teams playing their final home game of the season have cashed 58% over the last 40 years off back to back road wins, if matched up against a conference foe.  And, finally, Miami also falls into 191-95 and 125-51 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home favorites off wins vs. foes off an upset win.  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over Washington.  The Beavers have been installed as a double-digit home underdog notwithstanding the fact that they come into this game off back to back upset ROAD wins (at California and Arizona).  Meanwhile, the Huskies enter tonight's fray off back to back HOME losses to Oregon and Utah.  We'll take the points with Oregon State, as home underdogs of more than 7 points, off back to back wins, have covered 78% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back losses.  Take the Beavers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls minus the points over South Florida.  Temple dropped its last two games -- both SU and ATS -- which lowered its record to 5-3 on the season.  But .600 (or better) teams have gone 71-49 ATS as a road favorite off back to back losses.  And the Owls are an awesome 73-44-1 ATS its last 118 on the road, while the Bulls are a horrid 12-24-1 ATS at home vs. conference rivals, including 0-7 ATS their last seven.  Take Temple.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over Miami-Ohio.  In their last game, the Bobcats went into Muncie, Indiana, and upset Ball State, 34-21, as a 2-point underdog.  Off that win, we'll play on Ohio, as it's gone 8-0 ATS at home off an upset win.  Meanwhile, the Red Hawks come into Athens off back to back upset wins over Northern Illinois and Kent State.  Unfortunately, they're not likely to make it 3 upset wins in a row.  Indeed, since 1980, road underdogs off an upset road win have cashed just 36% vs. conference foes off a win, if our road dog also won as an underdog two games back.  The Bobcats are also a super 11-2 straight-up, and 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Red Hawks.  Take Ohio to blow out Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs to go 'over' the total.  Trae Young (26.8 ppg) has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all I needed to pull the trigger on this game to go 'over' the total.  San Antonio is running a lot more this season, now that Dejounte Murray is healthy again (after missing last season).  Murray was one of the lone bright spots for the Spurs in their loss to the Lakers on Sunday, as he totaled 18 points, 11 rebounds and four assists in 24 minutes.  And one can see what his presence in the line-up this year has done for the team's offensive strategy, as a whole.  This season, the Spurs rank #1 in fastbreak points per game (19.8), compared to ranking #30 last season (10.3 ppg).  And their pace of play has jumped from #22 to #11.  It's true that Murray is on a minutes restriction (24) and won't play on back-to-back nights for the first part of this season.  But that's not a problem in this game, since the Spurs are rested, and don't play again until Thursday.  So, he'll be on the floor.  I look for a relatively-high scoring game tonight.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys Under the total.  Each of these two teams come into this game off a string of relatively-high scoring games.  Dallas' last three games have produced 58, 46 and 47 points, while the New York Giants' last three games have generated 49, 48 and 57 points.   The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game, especially since the first meeting (in Week 1) between these two teams resulted in a 52-point game.  But match-ups between division rivals -- with Over/Under lines greater than 47 points -- have gone UNDER the total 62% of the time since 1980 if previous three games for each of the two teams resulted in 43+ points being scored.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz 'over' the total.  These two teams met just four days ago, and the Jazz held the Clippers to just 96 points, in a 110-96 win.  That was the only time this season that Los Angeles failed to score more than 100 points.  Of course, it also must be noted that Kawhi Leonard (and his 29.2 points per game) were in street clothes for that game.  In the five games that Leonard has been on the court, the Clippers have averaged 117.8 points per game.  The over/under for the first meeting was 216.5 points, and this number opened much lower, despite the fact that Leonard will play.  I believe it's an over-reaction to the result of the first meeting, as well as to the fact that both teams have gone 'under' the total by more than 10 points in each of their three previous games.  That's certainly not a common situation.  But it happened last season when Detroit and Philadelphia met on December 7.  The 76ers had gone 'under' the total by 14, 13.5 and 13 points in their three previous games, while the Pistons had gone 'under' by 19, 24.5 and 15.5 points in their three previous games.  But the two teams combined for 228 points, and sailed 'over' the total.  The Clippers have gone 'over' the total in 13 of their last 15 games when favored, and playing with revenge.  And the 15 games also averaged 232.4 ppg.  This game will be very high-scoring.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over New England.  The Patriots are one of two undefeated teams in the NFL.  And they're 6-2 ATS.  But they've benefited from a ridiculously easy schedule.  Only one of New England's previous eight opponents currently has a winning record.  That would be the Buffalo Bills.  And New England didn't cover the point spread in that game, and was actually out-gained in yardage, 375-224, but was able to win because the Bills committed three more turnovers than did New England.  Baltimore will thus be the 2nd winning opponent which the Patriots will face this season.  The Ravens are 5-2, and come into this game off a bye week following their upset win, at Seattle.  That bodes well for them, as rested teams have gone 11-4 ATS as an underdog vs. New England if the Patriots were unrested.  Also, .700 (or better) teams have gone 17-8 ATS vs. New England as a home underdog.  Those team trends are nice.  But I also have many league-wide NFL systems against New England.  For example, .666 (or better) NFL home underdogs of +1.5 (or more) points have cashed 73% since 1980 off a road win, if they're playing an opponent off a home win.  And .666 (or better) home underdogs have cashed 60% of the time (at Week 7 forward) vs. non-division foes.  Admittedly, it's true that the Patriots have won and covered each of their last four games by wide margins (33-7, 35-14, 33-0, 27-13).  Unfortunately, .500 (or better) NFL teams, off 4 straight wins and covers, in which they scored 24+ points in each game, have covered just 30% of the time vs. .666 (or better) foes.   The Patriots win streak will end on Sunday night.  Take the Ravens + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over SMU.  In this battle for American Athletic Conference West division supremacy, we'll side with the homestanding Tigers.  Memphis comes into this game with a 3-1 record in the AAC, one game behind SMU, which is 4-0, and a half-game behind Navy, which is 4-1.  So, this game is a "must-win" for the Tigers if they want to get back to the AAC Championship game in December.  And the Tigers have been a juggernaut at home vs. conference foes, as they've won 10 of the last 11.  Even more impressive is the fact that they've covered 9 straight home conference games -- by an average of 10.04 points per game!  Meanwhile, SMU is a dreadful 2-8 ATS its last 10 road games vs. conference foes, including 0-5 ATS vs. foes with a .400 (or better) win percentage.  And it's also 2-12 ATS in conference road games off back to back conference wins, and 12-34 ATS as road underdogs of +10 or less points (or PK).  Finally, Memphis falls into 82-46, 364-266, 123-73, 184-104 and 66-28 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams with strong offenses (Memphis averages 39.5 ppg).  Lay the points with the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over Dallas.  The Avalanche have dropped their last two games.  But those two were against Florida and Anaheim -- two teams that would, if the season ended today, be in the Playoffs.  The Dallas Stars, meanwhile, come into tonight's game with a losing record (5-8-1).  And Dallas is also an awful 2-5 on the road this season.  The Stars did win their last game, 6-3, vs. Minnesota.  But the Wild are a woeful 4-9 on the season.  And Dallas is 9-17 (minus 14 games on the money line) after scoring 5+ goals in its previous game, while the Avalanche are 37-27 (+14 games on the money line) after giving up 3+ goals in each of their two previous games.  Take Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the 'OVER' in the Atlanta/Miami game.  These two teams played a few nights back, and the Heat won that game, 112-97.  The over/under line in that game was 224.5, so tonight's number is significantly less than what was offered for that game.  Admittedly, Atlanta guard Trae Young will be out tonight, but this over/under line is somewhat of an over-reaction.  The Hawks have gone 'over' the total in 39 of 59 home games off a loss, including 12-4 'over' vs. division rivals.  Also, the 'over' falls into a system of mine which has cashed 60.4% since 1990.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Houston Astros.  In early September, I released the Washington Nationals at 18-1 odds to win the World Series.  So, now that they are in a Winner-Take-All game for the Title, it's not a surprise that I will go with the Nats, who will have their ace, Max Scherzer on the hill.  (And, should it hit, it would be our 2nd monster futures winner this year, as we also had Virginia at 22-1 odds to win the NCAA Basketball Title.)  When Scherzer was scratched from his planned Sunday start in Game 5 in Washington, it sounded like there was no way he would make another appearance in this series.  But great athletes sometimes find a way to come back, even when they are in so much pain they can't get out of bed.  One cortisone shot and a bullpen session later and Scherzer has declared himself ready to go in the ultimate baseball game of the season.  And who are we to doubt a three-time Cy Young award winner who is as big a competitor as there is in the game?  We also played on the Nationals in Game 6 yesterday.  And their resounding 7-2 victory should only serve to get Scherzer's juices flowing even more.  RHP Zack Greinke will go the mound for the 'Stros tonight and although he pitched very well in Game 3 in DC, it's interesting to note that all season Greinke did better on the road than he did at home (which is quite unusual for Greinke, as he has been a dominant home pitcher for most of his career).  His regular season ERA at Minute Maid Park after coming over to the Astros was a pedestrian 3.99 (in five starts) and in his only previous post-season start here, Greinke allowed three runs in six innings in a lopsided 7-0 loss in Game 1 of the ALCS vs. the Yanks.  Washington is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings and 11-1 in the last 12 in Houston.  Take the Nats.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals and Houston Astros 'under' the total.  In their worst nightmare the Nationals probably wouldn't have imagined the first three home World Series games played in DC in almost a century in which they would score a total of three runs on only 17 hits.  But that's what happened in Games 3-5 over the weekend and now the Nats must figure out a way to get some runs across the plate on the road.  Sure, they were able to do that in Game 2, but they were also held to two runs on six hits through the first six innings of that one thanks to some solid pitching by starter Justin Verlander.  Verlander gets the call again tonight opposite Nats' ace Stephen Strasburg, so this is the same match-up as that Game 2.  The Houston bullpen imploded in that one, but it has really settled down of late.  In the three games in DC, Astros' relievers allowed a total of just one run on four hits in 10 1/3 combined innings.  The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings of these two teams in Houston and 16-6 in Verlander's last 22 starts vs. teams with winning records.  Take the 'under.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Washington Capitals.  The big question facing the Capitals this season as they start a legitimate campaign for their second Stanley Cup in the last three years, is whether this will be the final season in DC for the core group of stars.  Alex Ovechkin may have two years left on his contract, but both Nicklas Backstrom and Braden Holtby will be free agents come the Summer of 2020.  While the Caps may work out a deal for their veteran center, Holtby is another matter.  The 30-year-old goaltender has been showing signs of a decline so far this fall, and the Caps have 22-year-old Ilya Samsonov perhaps ready to take over in net.  The 2015 first round draft pick has already appeared in five games (started in four) and the young net-minder has better overall numbers than Holtby who will be in goal for tonight's contest in Toronto.  Holtby's career statistics against the Leafs are solid, but last season he struggled against them, going 1-2 with a 3.96 GAA and .896 saves pct in three games vs. Toronto. The Leafs lost on the road to the Canadiens, 5-2, on Saturday.  But they are 15-3 at home their last 18 after losing on the road in their previous game.  Take Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vancouver Canucks over the Florida Panthers.  It's been five seasons since the Canucks made the playoffs.  Last season, Vancouver was just 35-36-11, but that was actually better than they had done in the previous two campaigns.  And with the changes they made in the off-season, a playoff appearance next Spring is not out of the question.   The biggest off-season news were the signings of defensemen Tyler Myers (five-year contract) and Jordie Benn.  Up front, the Canucks also added some versatile players with offensive upside in Micheal Ferland (Carolina) and J.T. Miller, for whom they traded a first-round pick to the Lightning.  Finally, GM Jim Benning re-signed forward Brock Boeser on a good bridge deal ($5.875 million AAV for three years).  There's no more cap room, but the Canucks have 16 players under contract through next season.  The Panthers' biggest signing was behind the bench as Joel Quenneville was hired to handle the head coaching duties.  Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky was also brought in, but he has some big skates to fill in future Hall-of-Famer Roberto Luongo, who retired.  Bobrovsky has struggled so far and Florida's 3.60 GAA is the fourth-worst in the league.  We'll take the Canucks, as the home team is 6-2 in the last eight meetings of these two.  Take Vancouver.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Dolphins are 0-6 on the season, but they've covered the point spread in their last two games.  We stayed away from playing on or against Miami for its first five contests, but stepped in last Sunday and took the points with it against Buffalo (and cashed).  We'll take the Dolphins once again tonight, as winless NFL underdogs of +7 (or more) points have gone 44-16-2 ATS (at Game 6 forward) on the road vs. non-division opponents.  Also, Monday Night Football underdogs of more than 9 points have gone 22-6-1 ATS.  Take the Dolphins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Detroit.  Tonight, the Pistons will play the 3rd game of a 3-game home stand.  And they'll try to snap their 2-game SU/ATS losing streak, as they fell here, at home, vs. Atlanta and Philadelphia to start the home stand.  This is a revenge game for Indiana, which lost on Opening Night, at home, to these Pistons.  Overall, the Pacers are 0-2 on the young season, as they also lost to Cleveland, 110-99, on Saturday.  We'll lay the points with Indiana, as it's 123-83-4 ATS as a favorite off a loss, when playing with revenge, including 43-22-1 ATS vs. division rivals -- and, then, 6-1 ATS as a road favorite vs. division rivals.  Meanwhile, Detroit is a horrid 10-25 ATS at home off a point spread defeat, including 0-6 ATS its last six.  Finally, the Pacers fall into 70-28 and 127-56 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off losses.  Lay the points with Indy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Indianapolis.  The Broncos were blown out, 30-6, as a 3-point home underdog last week.  But I love them to rebound on Sunday at Indianpolis.  The Colts come into this game off two huge victories:  a 19-13 win at Kansas City, who knocked them out of last year's playoffs, and a 30-23 win over division rival, Houston.  Last week's win moved Indy to 4-2 on the season -- and into first place in the AFC South -- a half-game ahead of the Texans, who fell to 4-3.  But NFL home teams have covered just 32% (at Game 5 forward) over the last 40 years if they were off back to back wins over .666 (or better) opponents.  That doesn't bode well for Indianapolis.  Nor does the fact that favorites off a division win have covered just 42 of 118 games vs. foes off a home loss in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 18 points.  Take the Broncos + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over Utah State.  Last year, the Aggies downed Air Force, 42-32, which snapped Air Force's 3-game SU/ATS win streak in this series.  But I love Air Force to avenge that defeat, as it's 9-3-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss.  And this is a huge game for Air Force, as it currently sits one game behind Utah State in the Mountain West's division standings.  And the Aggies fall into a negative 72-123 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams that sit atop their Conference standings.  Last week, Air Force had a nice tune-up for this game when it pasted Hawaii, 56-26.  That was the Falcons' 2nd straight double-digit win, which has triggered a great 69.7% ATS 'momentum' system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any unrested NCAA team off back to back double-digit wins, and back to back double-digit covers, if it was playing at home vs. a conference rival, and not favored by 6+ points.  That bodes well for the Falcons on Saturday.  As does the fact that it's 10-0 ATS the past five years off a 20-point (or greater) win.  Take Air Force.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Utah.  The Jazz have been installed as a road underdog at Los Angeles.  Unfortunately, they've covered just 49 of 135 in the regular season when priced as an underdog from +3 to +8.5 points against a rested foe.  The Lakers, meanwhile, stumbled in their season opener on Tuesday, as they were upset by the rival Clippers.  But home favorites have cashed 71% since 1991 off an upset loss on the road to start the season.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Washington Nationals.  In a somewhat surprising turn of events, it's the Nationals and not the Astros that are leading the World Series, 2-0, after the first two games in Houston. As expected, both teams' starting pitching has been very good up to this point.  But not as expected is the fact that it's the Nationals' hitting, bullpen, and defense that has been stellar -- not the Astros' -- thereby leading to a lopsided first two games in which DC has out-scored Houston by a combined 17-7.  If ever there was a time for RHP Zack Greinke to show the 'Stros that it was a good idea to trade for him at the deadline, tonight is it.  Greinke gets the ball for Game 3 against RHP Anibal Sanchez.  Sure, Greinke has not been very good this post-season (0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in three starts) but if there's one thing that can get him on track, it might be a start vs. the Nats.  In nine career starts against them, Greinke is 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.  And four of those were here in DC, where the ERA is even better (1.11).  Greinke's teams have also been fantastic with him on the mound following a loss, as they've gone 30-11 (+17 games on the money line).  Finally, the Astros are 74-33 as a road favorite priced from -125 to -175 (+25 games on the money line).  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over the L.A. Clippers.  Kawhi Leonard & Co. opened the 2019-20 season with an upset win at home over the Lakers.  But off that emotional win, we'll step in and go against the Clippers as a road favorite vs. the defending Western Conference champs.  Since 1991, teams that lost the NBA Finals the previous season have opened up the next year by going 18-10 ATS in Game 1.  Also, the Warriors have dominated at home vs. foes off a win, as they're 53-32 ATS their last 85.  Finally, NBA teams have cashed 61.9% as underdogs in their home opener over the past 29 years, provided they were not a losing team the previous season.  Grab the points with Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Minnesota. These two teams are obviously heading in opposite directions.  Washington is 1-6 this season, and lost 9-0 at home to the 49ers last week (though it covered the 10-point spread), while the Vikes have won (and covered) each of their last three games.  And over its last two games, Minnesota has had its best offensive outputs (38, 42 points) of the season.  But before one walks to the window and plunks down some $$$ on Minnesota, consider that teams off a shutout defeat at home (like Washington) have gone 69.7% ATS since 2001.  And NFL teams off a win (like Minnesota), who have scored more than 60 points more than their opponent over their two previous games (Minnesota scored 80, Washington just 17), have gone 7-28 ATS if their opponent was off a loss.  Washington also falls into 153-69, 21-3 and 218-130 ATS systems of mine.  Grab the points with the Redskins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.