Sports Picks & Predictions

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds + the points over Weber State.  It's true that the Thunderbirds come into this game off four double-digit losses by 42, 30, 13, and 20 points.  But this string of defeats have triggered two of my best systems, with records of 398-214 and 495-281 ATS since 1990.  Moreover, the Wildcats have not performed well as a favorite, as they've covered just 21 of 54 games.  Take Southern Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Vancouver Canucks.  For the third time this season, the Maple Leafs have lost back-to-back home games coming into tonight.  If the other two occasions are any indication then Toronto could be sitting on a big game tonight.  On October 24, the Leafs beat Winnipeg 4-2 after losing two straight at home to the Penguins and Blues.  And on November 3, they crushed the Pens 5-0 after losing back-to-back in Toronto to the Flames and Stars.  Both the Jets and Pens are much better teams than Toronto will be facing tonight as the Canucks visit Scotiabank Arena for the first time in almost a year.  The Leafs are down to their third goalie as both Frederik Andersen and Garret Sparks are out with injuries.  But 28-year-old Michael Hutchinson is a pretty solid net-minder in his own right and he grew up in the Toronto area rooting for the Leafs.  Hutchinson is sure to have plenty of friends and family in the stands tonight for the heavily favored home team.  This has been a very host-friendly series in recent years as the home team is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Leafs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Elon Phoenix + the points over the Delaware Blue Hens.  Delaware comes into this game off back to back upset wins over Northeastern and William and Mary.  The Hens have actually done quite well this season as an underdog, as they're 7-2-1 ATS.  But, tonight, Delaware is a big favorite, and it is a relatively poor 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season, including two outright losses as an 11-point favorite (vs. Navy) and as a 21.5-point favorite (vs. Delaware St.).  Delaware is a money-burning 13-23 ATS at home off back to back wins, and it is just 35% ATS since 2007 as a favorite off an upset win.  Finally, Elon falls into 401-246 and 330-196 ATS systems of mine.  Take Elon + the points.  NCAA Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Colorado.  The Sun Devils pulled off a big upset when they defeated then-No. 1-ranked Kansas, 80-76, two weeks ago.  Somewhat predictably, the Sun Devils had a letdown and proceeded to get upset in each of their next two games -- vs. Princeton and Utah.  But off those two upset losses, I look for Arizona State to right its ship this evening.  Since Jan. 17, 2015, the Sun Devils are an awesome 9-0 SU/ATS at home off back to back losses.  And they're 40-19 ATS at home off back to back losses since 2001.  Meanwhile, the Buffaloes are a horrid 11-28 ATS their last 39 road games when installed as an underdog.  Take Arizona State.  Pac 12 Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Kansas.  The Jayhawks have lost just once this season, but find themselves as an underdog at 11-2 Iowa State.  We'll go against Kansas, as Big 12 Conference underdogs that have a better record than Iowa State have covered just 27% away from home vs. the Cyclones.  Take Iowa State.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans over Indianapolis.  This is a great playoffs match-up between two AFC South division rivals that rebounded strongly this season off 4-12 records last year.  These two teams split road wins in their two regular season match-ups, and we cashed tickets in both games.  In the first game, we had a huge play on the Houston Texans, who won, 37-34, at Indianapolis.  Then, in the more recent game, here in Houston, we played on the 'under' 49, and cashed when the Colts won, 24-21.  For this game, we'll take the homestanding Texans, and go against an Indianapolis team off a 33-17 win last Sunday, at Tennessee.  Unfortunately for Frank Reich's men, road teams off a SU/ATS win, with winning SU/ATS records, have fared poorly in divisional match-ups when priced from +1.5 to -6.5 points.  Since 1980, such road teams have covered just 41% of their games.  Even worse for the Colts, AFC South division road teams have covered just one of six Wild Card Playoff games since 2005.  And, finally, revenge-minded teams, like Houston, with win percentages between .600 and .750, that lost the season's previous meeting by less than 4 points, have cashed 94% (15-1 ATS) in the Playoffs.  Take Houston.  NFL Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Northeastern Huskies + the points over Hofstra.  The Huskies were shocked, 82-80, as a 12-point home favorite last Sunday, while Hofstra won its ninth straight game (and covered its fifth in a row) with a 14-point blowout win over Drexel.  But I look for the Huskies to bounce back on this Saturday afternoon, as NCAA teams off an upset loss as a 12-point (or bigger) favorite, have covered 62% over the past 29 years vs. teams with a winning SU/ATS record that were off back to back SU/ATS wins.  And in this series, the underdogs has gone 13-1-1 ATS since February 23, 2010 if it was getting more than 2 points.  Take Northeastern.  Colonial Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Northern Kentucky Norse minus the points over Detroit.  The Norse were upset on the road by the Oakland Grizzlies on Thursday, while Detroit won its 3rd straight game (and covered its fifth straight) with a 21-point blowout of Wright State.  I look for Northern Kentucky to rebound off its upset defeat, as road favorites are 100%, 10-0 ATS, since 2008 off an upset road loss, if they're playing a conference foe off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Take the Norse.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Butler Bulldogs minus the points over Creighton.  Butler comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Florida (we had a big play against Butler in that game) and Georgetown, in which it was a 9.5-point home favorite.  Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are in off back to back SU/ATS wins vs. UMKC and an upset win at Providence.  However, with Butler off an upset home defeat, and Creighton off an upset road win, we will fade the Blue Jays as a road underdog today.  For technical support, consider that in conference games between winning teams, it's been extremely profitable (65.7% ATS) over the last 29 years to play on home favorites off an upset home conference loss, if their opponent was off an upset road conference win.  Throw in the fact that Butler is 17-5 ATS at home off an upset loss to a conference foe, while Creighton is 2-12 ATS its last 14 as a road underdog, and we have all the ammunition to pull the trigger on the Bulldogs this afternoon.  Lay the points.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Ducks over the Vegas Golden Knights.  Last season's surprise Stanley Cup Finalists are out to prove that it was no fluke.  But the Golden Knights have some work to do if they're to become the first team to go to back-to-back finals in their first two seasons of existence since the St. Louis Blues in the late 1960s (and the Blues did that in their first THREE seasons).  Halfway through the season the Knights find themselves in second place in their division behind the Flames.  Their biggest problem so far has been their performance on the road, as Vegas is 11-13 away from T-Mobile Arena.  This is a revenge situation for the Ducks as they were blown out by the Knights, 5-0 on November 14 in Vegas.  But they've done well in these situations recently as the Ducks are 34-13 (+23 games on the money line) in their last 47 when revenging a loss in which they scored less than two goals.  The Ducks have also lost their last two games in overtime coming into this one and they are 5-0 in their last five games following back-to-back OT losses.  Take Anaheim.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At  7 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Toledo.  The Cards have won and covered each of their last three games, including a 59-point blowout of Delaware State on Saturday (and 27 and 16-point wins prior to that).  We'll grab the points with Ball State in this Mid-American Conference opener, as teams off back to back 25-point wins are 97-69 ATS vs. conference foes, if our team wasn't favored by 3+ points.  And the Cardinals, since 2011, are also 9-0 ATS off a win by 12+ points, if they're getting more than 2 points.  Take Ball State.  NCAA Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Houston.  The problem for Golden State in the regular season the last few years is that it (justifiably) cannot get motivated.  It understands that all that matters is the post-season, which is why it had just the 3rd best record in the league last season (and a full 7 games worse than this Houston team).  This season, it's much of the same, as Golden State is 25-13 straight-up and a poor 16-22 ATS.  Thus, as a professional gambler, I try to pick my spots to invest in Golden State, as the team often goes through the motions and doesn't put forth its best effort.  They may not come through tonight but, at the very least, one can rest assured that the effort will be there.  And that's because they're playing James Harden & the Houston Rockets, who stretched the Warriors to seven games in the de facto NBA Championship last season.  And the Warriors are also playing with revenge from a 21-point blowout loss at Houston on November 15, which ranks as the worst road defeat suffered by the Warriors this season.  Tonight, though, Golden State is at home.  And the Warriors are a super 39-8 straight-up and 29-18 ATS when playing with revenge from a road defeat, including 23-7 ATS when not favored by double-digits.  And Golden State is 8-1, 89% ATS vs. Houston when playing with revenge from a loss to Houston earlier in the season.  Take the Warriors to blow out Houston tonight.  NBA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iona Gaels minus the points over the Monmouth Hawks.  After starting the season with 12 straight losses, the Hawks finally broke into the win column on Saturday with an upset win, as a 14-point underdog, vs. Pennsylvania.  Now, Monmouth gets to take on an Iona team looking to snap its own 7-game losing streak.  Unfortunately for Monmouth, over the past 15 seasons, losing teams, off an upset road win as a 13-point (or bigger) underdog, have covered just 15.4% on the road vs. foes off back to back losses.  Lay the points with Iona.  NCAA HOOPS ROADKILL WINNER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels minus the points over Colorado State.  The Rebels were blown out by 25 points, 97-72, by Bucknell in their previous game, even though UNLV was favored to win.  That game was in Honolulu, in the Diamond Head Classic, on Christmas Day.  And UNLV was 0-2, overall, in that Holiday Tournament.  But UNLV is back home tonight, and I expect it to bounce back strong in front of its home faithful.  Indeed, over the past 14 years, NCAA home teams off 25-point (or worse) upset losses away from home have covered 69% of the time (and 74% if they also lost two games back).  And the Rebels are 8-0 ATS the past four seasons at home off a non-conference loss.  Take UNLV.  NCAA Roadkill Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Oklahoma.  The Sooners haven't won at Allen Fieldhouse in over 25 years, as they've lost the last 17 meetings.  Of course, Kansas doesn't lose at home to any team very often, as it's 241-13 at home since Bill Self took over as head coach in 2003.  Kansas did lose for the first time this season, on the road two games ago, when it fell, 80-76, at Arizona State.  But it bounced back with a 24-point win (and cover) over Eastern Michigan on Saturday.  I look for Kansas to blow out Oklahoma, as it's 64-1 straight-up and 44-18-3 ATS at home if it wasn't off back to back wins, including 26-6 ATS if it was favored by 15 points or less.  And Oklahoma is a horrid 32-65-2 ATS away from home vs. Big 12 Conference opponents, when not getting double-digits, including 0-9 ATS its last nine.  Take Kansas.  Big 12 Conference Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the New Jersey Devils.  Good teams with deep talent can often afford to lose a top offensive player.  But bad teams usually cannot.  The Devils are a case of the latter.  Left winger -- and top point-producer -- Taylor Hall suffered a lower body injury following the Devils game on December 23 and they were hoping the Hart Trophy winner would play through it.  But the New Year didn't begin well for New Jersey as the Devils announced they put Hall (37 points in 33 games) on Injured Reserve.  To make matters worse, their #2 winger on that side -- Marcus Johansson -- was already on IR for an upper body ailment.  Somehow despite these handicaps, the Devils have managed to win three straight by a combined score of 11-2.  But two of those were at home and now they have to go into Dallas shorthanded on offense against one of the best home defenses in the NHL (2.47 GAA at AA Center).  The Stars lost to the Devils back in October, 3-0, and they are 7-2 in their last nine revenging same-season losses and 5-1 in their last six off a home loss.  Take Dallas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over Georgia.  The Bulldogs have the unenviable task of playing in the SEC Conference where they often have to get by Alabama in order to have a shot at a National Championship.  They were unable to do it this year, and lost to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Title game.  They're now double-digit favorites vs. Texas.  But Bowl favorites of more than 7 points, off a loss in their previous game, are an awful 33-56 ATS since 1986.  And if they're playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss that also failed to cover the point spread two games back, then our Bowl favorite is 2-8 ATS.  Texas comes into this game off a 39-27 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game.  But double-digit Bowl underdogs off a loss in which they gave up 38+ points, have cashed 73%, including a perfect 5-0 ATS if their opponent was also off a loss.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies + the points over Ohio State.  The storyline for this game is that it is coach Urban Meyer's swan song.  And, yes, he is the 2nd best coach in College Football (behind Nick Saban).  But I'm still going to go against him today.  Ohio State comes into this game off five straight wins.  But the Buckeyes are an horrid 0-9 ATS since November 21, 2015 off five straight wins!  Also, this Big 10 Championship team is unusual for the Big 10 Conference in that it has a poor defense.  The Buckeyes have given up 25.6 ppg (a whopping 10.2 ppg more than Washington's defense gives up).  Of course, over the decades, the best Big 10 Conference teams have generally been built around strong defenses and solid rushing attacks.  So, in Bowl games, when you get a Big 10 team that is greatly outmatched on defense by its opponent, it's generally a good idea to fade that Big 10 team.  Indeed, since 1980, Big 10 teams with a defense at least 6 points per game worse than their foe's defense have gone 8-21 ATS, including 0-5 ATS as a favorite, and also 0-6 ATS if the differential was minus 10.2 points (or worse) per game.  Take the Huskies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Cal State Northridge.  The Aztecs threw in a clunker of a game on Saturday, as they were bombed, 82-61, at home by Brown, even though SDSU was favored by 11.  But don't be surprised if Brian Dutcher's men bounce back in a big way on Tuesday in their last non-conference game before the start of the Mountain West season.  Indeed, over the last 29 years, teams off double-digit losses as double-digit favorites have rebounded to cover the point spread 62% of the time in their next game, if they were matched up against a non-conference foe.  Take San Diego State.  NCAA Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Penn State.  Kentucky's defense gave up just 16.2 ppg this season.  And that was against a largely-SEC Conference schedule.  Anytime I can get an SEC Conference team, which has a great defense, as an underdog in a Bowl game, I'm going to strongly consider it.  Indeed, SEC Conference dogs that didn't give up 16.4 ppg have cashed 76.1 percent since 1980 if they were getting 3 or more points.  And if the line was 6 or more (which is, as of this writing, the number for this game, then our SEC defensive underdogs have gone 7-2 straight-up and a PERFECT 9-0 against the spread.  Take Kentucky.

At 1 pm, on New Year's Day, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Central Florida.  Last year, the Knights went undefeated, with a 13-0 record.  And it is trying to duplicate that feat this afternoon.  But it's not easy to go undefeated in back-to-back years.  Since 1980, five teams have tried, and only one found success -- the Nebraska Cornhuskers in 1994-1995.  The other four teams (Miami, 1992; Miami, 2002; USC, 2005; and Florida State, 2014) all got destroyed in their bowl games, and failed to cover the point spread by a staggering 22.5 points per game.  That doesn't bode well for Central Florida today.  And neither does the fact that LSU comes into this game off a loss to Texas A&M.  And one of the last things one should do in the Bowls is bet against an SEC Conference team off a loss to end its season.  These teams play with a chip on their shoulder, and have rolled to a 70-45 ATS record in the Bowl games, including 38-19 ATS when they owned a .625 (or better) SEC Conference record.  Take Louisiana State to blow out Central Florida.  NCAA High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Mississippi State.  The Hawkeyes' defense gave up, on average, just 17.4 ppg this season.  And one of the things I love to do in Bowl games is play on teams with very good defenses, in an underdog role.  Since 1981, underdogs of 7+ points that didn't give up 20+ points per game have covered 59% of the time.  And in match-ups between the Big 10 Conference and the SEC Conference, the Big 10 teams have gone 9-1 ATS since 1982 as underdogs of +4.5 or more points if they had a defense which didn't give up 20+ points per game.  Take Iowa.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over San Jose.  The winner of this game will be in first place in the Pacific division, as Calgary is currently in 1st (tied with Vegas), with 50 points, while the Sharks are one point behind, at 49.  The Flames were upset by Vancouver, in overtime, in their last game, but are 10-5 off a loss this season.  Meanwhile, the Sharks are off back to back wins over Anaheim and at Edmonton, but they're an awful 23-29 (minus 17 games on the money line) off a road win, and 31-34 (minus 15 games on the money line) off back to back wins.  Take Calgary.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Dallas.  These two teams met last night in the Lone Star State, and the Mavericks upset OKC, 105-103, as 2.5-point underdogs.  We'll lay the points with Billy Donovan's crew in this rematch, as the Thunder are 71-53 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss.  And they've cashed 72% since 2010 when laying 6+ points in the regular season against a team off a SU/ATS win, if OKC lost earlier in the season to that opponent.  Finally, the Thunder fall into 76-38 and 132-81 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Take OKC.  NBA High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the New York Rangers.  Two teams that are treading water at the half-way point of the season meet tonight in St. Louis.  With records that are on the wrong side of .500, both the Rangers and Blues will be saying "good riddance" to 2018 and hoping for better things in the New Year.  But while New York's record in what was expected to be a rebuilding season is not surprising, St. Louis' somewhat is.  And the Blues were showing signs of coming around, with five wins in seven games before going up against a red-hot Penguins club here at home on Saturday and dropping a lopsided 6-1 decision.  Tonight should bring some class relief coupled with the fact that the Rangers are just 5-11 in the last 16 meetings of these two.  And New York's outstanding defenseman, Kevin Shattenkirk has landed on IR with a separated shoulder and will be out for two to four weeks.  The Blues are 74-28 in their last 102 home games vs. teams with a road winning % of less than .400 while the Rangers are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. teams with a losing home record.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, on Monday afternoon, our selection is on the Eastern Washington Eagles minus the points over Idaho State.  The Bengals upset their rival, Idaho, 72-55, on Saturday, and I look for a letdown today, as they're a poor 20-35 ATS off an upset win.  Additionally, this game is cut from a similar cloth to a play we had on Sunday.  Yesterday, we played on Middle Tennessee State, which started the season with 10 straight ATS defeats, and I wrote how that was tied for the 2nd-worst ATS start of any team over the past 29 years.  Well, the Eagles have also been just as historically awful in their start to the 2018 campaign, as they're 0-10-1 ATS in their 11 lined games, thus far!  But the Eagles' lack of point spread success has provided us with decent line value tonight, and we'll lay the points with them in this Big Sky Conference game vs. Idaho State, as I have a terrific 80-41 ATS system on the Eagles in this contest.  Moreover, Eastern Washington has won the last three meetings in this series, and six of the last seven.  And it's 26-13 ATS off a home loss to a conference foe, and 20-12 ATS as a favorite vs. foes off upset wins.  Take the Eagles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:45 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Missouri.  All things being equal, I'll look to take points in Bowl games.  And especially at the higher price points.  Indeed, favorites of more than 7 points are an awful, including 93-122-4 ATS when priced from -7.5 to -14 points.  And, yes, it's true that Missouri played great down the stretch, with four straight wins, while Oklahoma State lost its finale to TCU, and five of its last seven, overall.  But Bowl favorites off 4+ wins have cashed just 39% over the last 39 years vs. opponents off a straight-up loss.  Finally, Missouri is a horrid 9-21 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes, if Missouri is off a straight-up and ATS win, and its opponent is off a SU/ATS loss, including 0-8 ATS when favored by more than six points!  And Okie State is 12-1 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against foes off a win!  Take the Cowboys.  Perfect 10 Club Play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Stanford.  The Panthers come into this Sun Bowl game off back to back blowout losses.  They fell, 24-3, to Miami in their final regular season game.  And then they lost, 42-10, to Clemson in the ACC Championship game.  But one of the things I love to do is in the post-season is play on teams off back to back blowout losses.  For example, underdogs of more than 3 points off back to back defeats by 21+ points have gone 12-0 ATS.  Moreover, underdogs that didn't score 14+ points in their final two games have also cashed 71% in the Bowls the past 39 years.  Indeed, we just saw both of these two angles in play a couple days ago in the Independence Bowl when Duke smashed Temple, 56-27, as a 3.5-point underdog, after losing 35-6 to Clemson and 59-7 to Wake Forest in their final two games to end the season.  Additionally, this Sun Bowl game in El Paso has long been good to the underdog.  Since 1980, they've cashed 90% (18-2 ATS) when catching 3.5 or more points.  Finally, Pittsburgh falls into several of my favorite Bowl systems, with records of 93-38, 119-61 and 24-7 ATS.  Take the Panthers.  Blowout of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Monday, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies + the points over Cincinnati.  The Hokies had a mid-season swoon which saw them lose five of six games (and go 0-6 ATS).  But they bounced back to defeat Virginia (34-31) and Marshall (41-20) to end their regular season.  And both Virginia and Marshall won their Bowl games in Blowout fashion, by 28 and 18 points, respectively.  It's true that the Bearcats went 10-2 this season.  But against other Bowl teams they didn't step up their game, as they went 1-4 ATS in their five games vs. teams that qualified for a bowl game.  And three of those five games were also played on Cincy's home field.  In Cincy's two road games this season vs. teams playing in Bowl games, they went 0-2 SU and ATS, with losses to Central Florida (38-13) and Temple (24-17).  And if we go back further, we find that the Bearcats have covered the point spread in just 11 of their last 37 games vs. foes with a .500 (or better) record.  Finally, Cincy is 0-3 SU/ATS their last three Bowl games, and 0-5 ATS their last five Bowl games when priced between -2 and -8 points.  Take the Hokies + the points. NCAA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers over the Sacramento Kings.  The Lakers were in control of Thursday's game vs. Sacramento, as they led by 15 with under 7 minutes to play.  But Bogdan Bogdanovic's 3-pointer at the buzzer earned the Kings the 117-116 victory.  That was L.A.'s second straight loss, and both were to division rivals (they lost, 118-107, to the Clippers two games back).  We'll play on the Lakers in the rematch, as L.A. is 67.8% ATS at home over the past 29 years when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season to a division rival, if priced from +2.5 to -6 points.  And L.A. is also 18-4 ATS at home off back to back losses to division rivals, including 10-0 ATS when not favored by more than 4 points.  Take Los Angeles. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over Rhode Island.  Admittedly, the Blue Raiders have been as bad as a team could be to start the season.  They've yet to cover the point spread in any of their 10 lined games, which ranks as the second-worst ATS start (tied with four other schools) of any team to a season in the last 29 years (the worse was in 2007-08 when Austin Peay started with 13 straight ATS losses).  But we'll grab the points with Middle Tennessee today, as College Basketball road underdogs (or PK) off back to back SU/ATS losses, and on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, have cashed 58% ATS since 1990 vs. foes that weren't off back to back SU/ATS losses.  And Rhode Island has won just eight of 26 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Blue Raiders.  NCAA Road Warrior Winner!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Chicago.  Chicago won the NFC Central, and owns a 12-3 record, while Minnesota is 8-6-1, and is fighting for the 6th (and final) NFC Playoff berth.  It's true that the Bears would like to win this game, provided the 12-3 Rams would be upset by the 49ers, but that eventuality is unlikely to happen.  Thus, Chicago will likely have to settle for a division title, and a Wild Card playoff game.  Minnesota, on the other hand, desperately wants to win this game, as that is its primary pathway into the Playoffs.  I love the Vikings to do just that, as NFL teams that have at least a 2-game (or worse) record than their opponent heading into the final week have cashed 61.2% since 1980 as favorites vs. opponents off a straight-up win.  Moreover, Minnesota is a super 10-0-1 ATS its last 11 regular season games when priced from -3.5 to -13 points.  Take the Vikings.  NFL Division Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders to go 'under' the total.  Both the Chiefs and Raiders have below average-defenses.  The Raiders are giving up a staggering 28.8 ppg, while KC is surrendering 27.9 ppg.  The Chiefs, though, have gone 'under' the total 12-0-1 as a home favorite when matched up against a defense which gives up 28.6 or more ppg.  And, yes, it's true that the Chiefs have played their last five games 'over' the total.  However, since 1980, teams off 5 (or more) straight 'overs' have gone 'under' the total more often than not, including 61.2% in their final regular season game.  I also have 166-99, 74-37 and 86-44 Totals systems on the 'under,' and I expect a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday afternoon.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Oakland.  The Kansas City Chiefs have been the league's biggest surprise this season, and will likely be the AFC Conference's #1 seed.  But they have not covered the point spread in any of their last six games (0-5-1 ATS).  I expect that to change this Sunday afternoon, as NFL home teams with a win percentage of .727 (or better) have covered 73% over the past 39 years off back to back losses.  Lay the points with the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Orlando.  The Magic upset Toronto in their last game.  But off that upset win, we'll look for a letdown and fade Orlando, and take the points with Detroit, which was bombed, 125-88, by Indiana on Friday.  Indeed, NBA road teams off a SU/ATS loss are 138-95 ATS in the regular season vs. .499 (or worse) foes off an upset win, if our road team isn't getting more than 6 points, including 45-26 ATS if our road team lost by 15 or more in its previous game.  Take Detroit.  NBA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the New England/NY Jets game.  The last five meetings between these two teams have gone 'under' the total.  And that's the way we'll look in this game, as the 'under' falls into a 94-57 Totals system of mine.  Additionally, the Jets lost at home last week, in overtime, 44-38, to the Green Bay Packers.  The over/under line for that game was 47.5, so it went 'over' the total by 34.5 points.  But teams that go significantly 'over' the total one week, tend to play lower-scoring games the next.  And especially if they were at home for the (first) higher-scoring game, and are now on the road for the (second) lower-scoring game.  Indeed, NFL teams that went 'over' the total at home by more than 31 points in their previous game have gone 'under' the total 69.6% of the time on the road when the line was 42+ points.  Take the 'under.'  AFC East Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Atlanta Falcons.  This matchup is between two teams that both had disappointing seasons.  Tampa Bay is 5-10, with three straight losses coming into this game, while Atlanta is 6-9, though it's won its last two games.  Since 1980, NFL teams have cashed just 38.1% in their final road game of the season, if they won and covered their two previous games, while their opponent was off back to back losses.  Take Tampa Bay.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys have clinched the NFC East Division title, and are locked into the #4 seed, so this game is meaningless for them.  Thus, the 6-10 Giants are favored by a healthy amount over the 9-6 Cowboys.  Obviously, this type of situation occurs every season in the NFL where really good teams have little incentive to play their top players in the final week or two.  And in the season's final two weeks, when teams with a win percentage at least .250 percentage points worse than their opponent's, are favored by more than three points, then our favored team has covered 70.5% of the time over the past 39 years.  Take the Giants.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Chicago Blackhawks.  The best offensive trio in the NHL doesn't include Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, or Nikita Kucherov.  Rather, the best line in hockey right now is three members of the Avalanche that -- until recently -- were far from household names.  The Avs' number one line of center Nathan MacKinnon and wingers Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantenen is tearing up the league right now like no other that we've seen in quite some time.  Rantenen and MacKinnnon rank second and third respectively in the overall points race, while Landeskog is fourth in goal scoring.  While the Avs defense is average at best, it has been holding its own at home where the Avs have allowed less than three goals per game on average (2.81).  Tonight is a revenge situation as the Hawks just beat the Avs, 2-1, about a week ago.  And Colorado is 21-12 in its last 33 games revenging a loss in which it failed to score at least two goals.  Meanwhile, Chicago is 4-10 in its last 14 after scoring three or more goals in two straight games.  Take the Avs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Fullerton State Titans minus the points over Portland.  The Pilots come into this game off a 54-39 blowout of Florida A&M.  But that game was at home.  On the road this season, the Pilots haven't had much success, as they're 1-3 SU/ATS thus far.  Even worse:  Portland's covered just three of 20 road games as underdogs of six (or more) points, if they won their previous game by eight (or more) points.  Tonight, the Titans will be looking to snap a 4-game SU/ATS slide.  And since 1990, they've cashed 70.3% as favorites off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Fullerton minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, on Saturday, December 29, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Clemson.  This is a match-up of two undefeated teams, as Notre Dame is 12-0, while Clemson is 13-0.  And I will generally take the underdog in match-ups between two undefeated teams, whether in the regular season, or the post-season.  Indeed, since 1980, the underdog has covered 68% of the time when getting more than 6 points, if both teams had a record of 5-0 or better.  And in Bowl games, such teams are a perfect 5-0 — and not just against the point spread.  But they’re also 5-0 straight-up, even though the average point spread in those five games has been 8.4 points.  That bodes very well for Notre Dame.  As does the fact that undefeated teams (like Clemson), with a record of 5-0 or better, and off a point spread win, have covered just 42% of the time since 1980 when favored by more than 6 points vs. .666 (or better) opponents.  Take the points with the Irish.  Perfect 10 Club.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Kentucky.  The Wildcats come into this Bluegrass State rivalry game off a huge upset win over then-No. 9-ranked North Carolina.  Kentucky was a 2.5-point home underdog in that contest, and upset the Tar Heels, 80-72.  Louisville, meanwhile, enters off back to back wins, though it failed to cover the 23-point spread in its last game, a 14-point home win over Robert Morris.  I look for Kentucky to have a letdown off its upset win this afternoon, as .818 (or better) road teams off upset wins have covered just 81 of 211 games vs. .500 (or better) home teams off back to back wins, including 0-10 ATS if our home team failed to cover the spread by more than 6 points in its previous game.  Take Louisville.

At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack over Arkansas St.  The Red Wolves went 8-4 this season, including 5-3 ATS in Sun Belt Conference play, while Nevada went 5-3 in the Mountain West Conference, and 7-5 overall.  Nevada did lose its last game, 34-29, as a 14-point favorite at UNLV.  But Bowl teams have cashed 80% over the last 15 years off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 8 points.  Even worse for Arkansas State:  Sun Belt teams have gone 20-52 ATS in non-conference games, if they weren't a losing team and weren't getting more than a point.  Finally, Nevada falls into my very best Bowl system, which is 52-11 ATS, as well as 74-27 and 53-21 ATS Bowl angles.  Take Nevada.  NCAA Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over South Carolina.  The Cavaliers come into this bowl game off back to back losses.  Certainly, losing back to back games to end the regular season is not ideal.  But not all losing streaks are equal.  And, here, both of those defeats were on the road.  And losing two road games is not as problematic as, say, losing two home games.  Indeed, underdogs off back to back road losses are a super 73% ATS in the post-season since 1980, including 81% vs. foes off a straight-up win.  Take Virginia + the points.  NCAA High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Butler.  The Gators and Bulldogs met in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament in the Bahamas over the Thanksgiving holiday, and Butler won, 61-54, in that tourney game.  We'll take Florida in the re-match, as this will just be Butler's 2nd true road game of the season.  And the Bulldogs were blown out in their first road game, 64-52, as a 3.5-point favorite at St. Louis.  Over the last two seasons, Butler's an awful 2-9 ATS on the road, including 0-8 ATS against .636 (or better) clubs.  Take Florida.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Iowa State.  This season, Mike Leach's Cougars were the #1 College Football team against the point spread.  Washington State finished the season with a 10-2 ATS record, and its only point spread defeats were its eighth game of the season vs. California, and its final game of the season vs. Washington.  In contrast, Iowa State was a pedestrian 6-6 ATS, and it ended the season with four straight ATS losses.  Since 1991, teams off a point spread loss, but with a point spread win percentage of .666 (or better), have cashed 70.7% in the post-season vs. foes that didn't have a winning record against the spread.  And Bowl teams that lost their previous four games to the point spread were under .500 ATS in their Bowl games, including 6-15-1 ATS in "win situation" games with point spreads ranging from +3 to -3.  Take Washington State.  Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Austin Peay.  The Governors come into this game, in Fayetteville, off six straight wins, and three straight covers, while Arkansas has dropped its last four games to the point spread.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on red-hot Austin Peay and against the ice-cold Razorbacks.  But consider that SEC Conference home teams, off four (or more) ATS defeats, have covered 71% over the last 29 seasons vs. foes off ATS wins in their last three games.  Additionally, the Razorbacks fall into an 83-34 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off a point spread defeat.  Take Arkansas to blow out Austin Peay.  NCAA Roadkill Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Syracuse.  Certainly, there are a lot of negatives on the side of West Virginia in this ballgame.  The most obvious one, of course, is the absence of star quarterback Will Grier, who has chosen to bypass this game so he can prepare for the NFL draft. And then there is West Virginia's awful history in the Bowl games. Since 1982, it's 6-21 ATS, including 1-11 ATS vs. ACC Conference foes.  And, finally, Big 12 Conference favorites are a poor 39-58 ATS as favorites in Bowl Games.  With all that said, I still favor the Mountaineers.  First, the fact that Grier won't play has been factored into this point spread, as WVU was favored by SEVEN points when the opening line was published, but it is now an UNDERDOG.   And, second, teams like Syracuse, that come into their Bowl game off a 21-point (or greater) upset win, have covered just 23% since 2000 when they weren’t getting 3 or more points.  Finally, the Mountaineers will have had several weeks to integrate their new quarterback, Jack Allison, into the offense.  And it's not as if he will be going against a great pass defense which could take advantage of his inexperience. Syracuse ranked just 74th of 130 College Football teams this season in defensive yards per pass attempt.  Take West Virginia + the points.  NCAA High Roller Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Utah.  The 76ers lost a heartbreaker, in overtime, on Christmas day, at Boston.  But I love them to bounce back in this underdog role, on Thursday.  Over the last 3 seasons, Philadelphia is 41-16-2 ATS off a road defeat, including 30-9-2 ATS as an underdog (and 12-1 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +6 points).  Meanwhile, Utah is a poor 5-12 ATS off a win over a division rival, including 0-5 ATS vs. .585 (or better) foes.  Take the 76ers + the points.  NBA Underdog Shocker!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Vanderbilt.  Last season, the Commodores won just five games, and failed to make a bowl game.  So, when it defeated its arch-rival, Tennessee, in its final regular season game, that was a huge win for this program, as it was its sixth win, overall, and enabled the Commodores to play in the Post-Season.  But I’m not a fan of playing on favorites in Bowl games that missed out completely on the post-season the previous year because of a losing record.  Generally speaking, a lot of these teams are just happy to be in a bowl game, so I prefer to not lay points with them.  And such teams have covered just 40% of the time as a Bowl favorite over the last 20 years.  Vanderbilt is also a poor 2-6 ATS in non-conference games after playing their rival, Tennessee.  Finally, Baylor is a solid 19-9 ATS its last 28 as an underdog, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when priced from +3 to +7 points.  Take the Bears. NCAA Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Rangers over Columbus.  The Blue Jackets' #1 goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky, won't play tonight.  Instead, the Jackets will start Joonas Korpisalo.  And that's good news for New York, as Bobrovsky has been red-hot, with a 6-1 record, 1.77 GAA and a .942 save percentage over his last seven games.  In contrast, the Jackets are 5-5 behind Korpisalo this season, and his save percentage is .885.  Even though the Rangers lost their last game -- a 3-2 defeat here at home to Philadelphia -- New York's been strong at home this season, with an 11-4-4 record, and they've outscored their opponents by an average of 3.0 to 2.4.  And New York is 30-18 (+14 games on the money line) off a home loss, and 11-6 in the last 17 meetings vs. Columbus.  Take the home dog Rangers on Thursday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Temple.  These two teams played almost mirror-opposite games to end their regular seasons.  The Owls won 57-7 on the road at Connecticut, while Duke was upset at home, 59-7, as a 9.5-point favorite by Wake Forest.  And Duke's loss continued a season-long trend which saw it cover the point spread as an underdog (5-0 ATS), but lose as a favorite (1-6 ATS).  And if we go back further, we find that Duke is 27-9 its last 36 as an underdog, including 9-0 when playing with rest, and 7-0 ATS their last seven.  That bodes well for the Blue Devils this afternoon, as they've been installed as an underdog in today's game.  Even better:  since 1990, teams off back to back losses, where they didn't score 44+ points combined in those two games, have gone 42-17 ATS in the post-season, including 7-0 ATS the past 3 years, if they weren't favored by more than a point, and their opponent was off a straight-up win.  Take the Blue Devils + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  Through their first 32 games, the Mavericks are 13-3 (.812) at home, and 2-14 (.125) on the road.  Their .687 win percentage differential between home and road is the largest such differential since 1990 for any team through its first 31+ games.  However, this differential has caused this point spread tonight to be a bit inflated, by my numbers.  Dallas has lost its last six games straight-up, and is also 0-2 ATS its last two home games.  The Pelicans won the previous meeting this season by 26 points, and that game ranked as the Pelicans' best win of the season, and Dallas' worst defeat.  New Orleans also won the last two meetings last season by 10 and 17 points.  Let's take the better team in an underdog role this evening.  Take New Orleans + the points.  NBA High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies nsapped a 5-game slide with an upset win over the Lakers on Sunday.  Meanwhile, the Cavaliers come into tonight's game off three straight double-digit defeats.  And they've been installed as a double-digit road underdog.  We'll grab the points with Cleveland, as rested double-digit dogs off 3 straight double-digit losses have covered 68.1% since 1990 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take Cleveland tonight.  NBA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Indiana State Sycamores + the points over TCU.  The Sycamores and Horned Frogs met just nine days ago in Fort Worth, and the Frogs blew out Indiana State, 90-70.  Let's grab the points with Indiana State in this rematch, as the Sycamores are a terrific 37-19-1 ATS away from home when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 19-6 ATS if they lost that previous meeting by more than 10 points.  Take the Sycamores. NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder over Houston.  Chris Paul is out with an injury, and the Rockets have not stepped up with him on the sidelines this season.  Paul has missed six games, and the Rockets are a miserable 1-5 SU/ATS without him on the court.  And Houston was favored in four of those six games.  That doesn't bode well for Houston this afternoon.  And neither does the fact that OKC was upset at home by Minnesota in its previous game, as OKC is a super 68-34-1 ATS on the road in the regular season off an upset defeat at home.  Take the Thunder. NBA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Charlotte.  The Buffaloes come into this game off back to back upset losses to Indiana State and Hawaii and three straight point spread losses, overall.  But Colorado is 22-8-2 off an upset defeat, and 56-31-2 ATS off back to back losses.  And the Buffaloes are 17-4 ATS after losing ATS in each of their three previous games, including 13-1 ATS if they also lost their two previous games straight-up.  Lay the points with Tad Boyle's men.  NCAA Hoops High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Denver.  Last week, the Raiders were blown out, 30-16, by the Cincinnati Bengals.  But off that 14-point loss, we'll step in and take the points with Oakland as a home underdog.  Indeed, I have several very good systems that back the Raiders tonight.  First, consider that since 1980, home underdogs have gone 177-130-11 ATS at Game 14 forward, if they were off a SU/ATS loss.  And, second, teams playing their last home game of the season have gone 70.7 percent ATS since 1980, if they owned a W/L record less than .400 and their opponent's W/L percentage was less than .429.  Take the Raiders tonight + the points.   Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the LA Clippers.  Since Steve Kerr took over as head coach in 2014, the Warriors have been the league's dominant team.  And that means they don't lose very often.  This season, Golden State is having another great campaign, and it is 22-11 through its first 33 games.  One of its 11 defeats, though, came vs. tonight's opponent, the Los Angeles Clippers.  However, that game was back in November when Steph Curry was sidelined with an injury.  He's back on the court now, and that should spell t-r-o-u-b-l-e for the Clippers.  Indeed, the Warriors are a poor 43-65 without Curry in the lineup, but are one of the historically-best teams with him on the floor.  Golden State is a powerful 72% ATS when playing with revenge, and favored by 10 or less points in the regular season under coach Kerr.  Take the Warriors to blow out the Clippers tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Kansas City.  The Seahawks were upset last week by the 49ers in San Francisco.  That dropped Seattle's record to 8-6, so it needs to win to remain in the Wild Card hunt.  Seattle's been installed as an underdog vs. the AFC's top-seeded Chiefs.  But I love Seattle to pull the upset, as NFL home dogs (or PK) off an upset loss, with a win percentage between .501 and .667. have cashed 70.9% over the past 34 years vs. .687 (or better) opposition.  Moreover, the Seahawks have long had one of the best home fields in the league.  And Seattle's been especially strong toward the end of the season, as it is 70-39-7 ATS at home in their final three regular season home games (or the post-season) since 1983, including 24-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Take the Seahawks.  Sunday Night Football Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Los Angeles Kings.  The Kings registered a huge upset on Saturday with a 3-2 overtime victory over the San Jose Sharks.  But let's not kid ourselves.  This is still a team that is the worst in the NHL with a 13-23 record and a league-low 29 points.  Injuries have played a big role in the Kings' demise this season as no less than eight regulars are currently questionable or out of action for a prolonged period.  The Knights have been very tough at home.  But on Saturday they met their match as the Canadiens came into T-Mobile Arena and left with a 4-3 overtime victory.  These two teams played two weekends ago in L.A. and the Kings cruised to an easy 5-1 victory as a big underdog.  But the Knights have been a different team at home (11-7) than they have been on the road (9-13) this season.  Moreover, th Kings are 5-17 in their last 22 games following a win and 1-6 in their last seven games playing without rest.  Finally, the Knights are 4-1 in the last five meetings with the Kings and 46-19 in their last 65 home games.  Take Vegas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Toreros minus the points over Drake.  This game is the Championship game of the Las Vegas Classic tonight, and matches up two teams playing very good basketball.  The Toreros are 10-3 straight-up, and check into tonight's game off back to back SU/ATS wins over Northern Colorado and Washington State.  Meanwhile, Drake is 9-2 SU and 9-1 ATS, including point spread wins in each of its last nine games.  Unfortunately, though, for the Bulldogs, NCAA basketball teams struggle mightily away from home as underdogs of +4 or more points, after covering the point spread in 8 (or more) straight games, as they've cashed just 34.4% of the time since 1990.  Take San Diego minus the points.  NCAA Hoops XMAS Holiday Tourney Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Charlotte.  After winning and covering eight straight games, the Celtics have now lost their last three -- both SU and ATS.  And they had their worst home defensive performance of the season in their last game, as they allowed Milwaukee to shoot 51.2% from the floor, and score 120 points.  Since 1990, the Celtics have cashed 69.7% at home when favored by 3+ points, if they lost SU/ATS at home in their previous game, and their opponent was off a win.  Take Boston minus the points.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Sacramento.  These two teams met earlier this year, and the Pels won by 20 points, 149-129.  That 149-point total has been the most points scored by a team this season (equaled by the Warriors and Wizards).  And the 278 points ranks as the highest-scoring non-overtime game this season.  The Pelicans come into this game off 3 straight defeats, including a 112-104 setback against the Lakers on Friday.  Meanwhile, Sacramento enters off a SU/ATS win over the Memphis Grizzlies.  I love New Orleans to once again blow out Sacramento this evening, as the Kings are an awful 11-32 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, if they are playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Pelicans minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Pittsburgh.  We had a big play on the Steelers last week over New England, and were rewarded with a 17-10 upset win.  Meanwhile, the Saints eked out a Monday Night Football win at Carolina, 12-9.  It's true that New Orleans' offense has been held in check in two of their last three games, as New Orleans also scored just 10 points at Dallas back on November 29.  But it's also true that New Orleans' last three games were all on the road.  At home this season, in six games, New Orleans has scored 228 points for an average of 38 ppg!  And the Saints have won and covered their last four home games.  Meanwhile, the Steelers haven't covered any of their last three road games, and even lost outright their last two -- as an 11-point favorite vs. Oakland, and as a 3-point favorite vs. Denver.  It's true that Ben Roethlisberger is a very good quarterback.  And he has some great weapons in Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.  But Pittsburgh's offense isn't in the same league as the Saints' offense.  And Steelers coach Mike Tomlin can't hold a candle on the offensive side of the football to the Saints' Sean Payton.  Indeed, Payton may be the best offensive mind in the game.  And he's at his best when matched up against other teams whose offenses score more than 24 points per game.  Since 2008, with Payton as head coach, the Saints are a staggering 40-15 straight-up and 42-12-1 ATS vs. foes that score more than 24 points per game.  This will be another Saints Blowout.  Lay the points. NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers to go 'over' the total.  The Saints scored just 12 points last week.  But they generally bounce back on offense after such poor games.  And New Orleans has gone 'over' the total 86% under coach Sean Payton after not scoring 14+ points in their previous game.  And the Saints have also gone 'over' the total in 30 of 39 non-division home games vs. winning teams off a straight-up win.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Carolina/Atlanta game.  The Panthers have shelved star QB Cam Newton for their final two games of the season and will give backup QB Taylor Heinicke his first two career starts.  Heinicke has thrown just five passes in his NFL career, so it's an understatement to say nobody really knows what to expect from him this afternoon.  However, one thing I do expect is that Carolina's defense will play very well once again today.  Last week, it shut down the high-flying New Orleans offense, and held Drew Brees & Co. to just 12 points.  Nine of the last 11 meetings between these two teams have gone 'under' the total, including all five played here in Carolina.  And games between two losing teams (with win percentages below .450), in the final two weeks of the season, have gone 'under' the total 95 of 152 games (62.5%) since 1980.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Bucs to go 'over' the total.  Tampa Bay has generally played high-scoring games away from home, and low-scoring games at home.  To wit;  Tampa has gone 'over' the total in 13 of its last 16 road games (compared to going under in 14 of its last 18 home games).  I look for that trend to continue on this Sunday, and especially given that the Cowboys have gone 'over' the total in five of their last six home games.  Take the 'over.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals to go 'under' the total.  After giving up 134 points in a four-week stretch from October 14 thru November 4, the Browns defense has played very well, and has averaged just 20.2 ppg over their last five games.  Not surprisingly, four of those five games went 'under' the total.  Additionally, the last five games between these two teams played here in Cleveland have gone 'under.'  And the Browns' final home game of the season has gone 'under' 13-4-1 the past 18 seasons.  Take the 'under.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bills have been awful over the years in their final road game of the season.  Since 1980, they've gone 12-24-2 ATS, including 5-16-1 ATS as an underdog.  That doesn't bode well for them this afternoon.  And neither does the fact that the Patriots have lost back to back games.  Since November 2002, the Patriots are 9-0 straight-up, and 8-1 ATS off back to back losses (with their only ATS defeat being by just 2.5 points).  Take New England.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Miami.  We played against Miami last week, and easily got the $$$ with the Vikings, who blew out the Dolphins, 41-17.  We will once again fade the Dolphins, as they're a horrid 35-65-3 ATS at home when not getting more than 3 points, including just 3-19 ATS when they're off a loss, and favored vs. non-division foes.  Take Jacksonville.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Toronto.  These two teams have met twice already this season, and the Raptors came away with wins in both games.  Toronto won 129-112 on October 30, and then defeated Philly 113-102 on December 5.  But BOTH of those games were played in Toronto.  This will be the first meeting between these two Atlantic Division rivals in Philadelphia.  And the 76ers have been dominant at home.  Indeed, since January 1, the Sixers are 41-7 straight-up, and 32-16 ATS at home.  Philadelphia will play this game with much more rest than Toronto, which had to play last night vs. Cleveland.  And double-revenging NBA home teams, that lost the season's first two meetings on the road, have cashed 69% over the last 25+ years if they were playing with at least two days' of rest, while their opponent was unrested.  Take Philadelphia to blow out Toronto.  NBA Division Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Detroit Red Wings.  Inconsistent play has plagued both the Red Wings and Panthers this season with either team capable of turning in a quality effort or a clunker on just about any given night.  Injuries have been partially responsible for their struggles, especially when it comes to Detroit.  No sooner did the Red Wings get defenseman Trevor Daley back from a lower body injury than they lost Mike Green (their top blue-liner) for an estimated three-to-five weeks (also lower body).  The Wings did snap a four-game losing streak with an upset victory over the Hurricanes in Carolina on Thursday, 4-1.  But posting a home victory immediately after one on the road has proven difficult for Detroit this season.  And being the home team in this series hasn't been a holiday either as the road team is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Finally, the Red Wings are 20-50 (-28 games on the money line) in their last 70 division match-up, and 11-24 (-14 games on the money line) in their last 35 after allowing less than two goals in their previous game.  Take Florida.  NHL Road Warrior Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Texas State.  The Razorbacks were upset here, at home, by Georgia Tech, on Wednesday.  We'll take Arkansas to bounce back this afternoon, as it's 9-0 ATS at home off a loss as a favorite (or PK) in its previous game, if it's now playing a non-conference opponent.  And the Razorbacks also fall into 60-19 and 83-49 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset defeats.  Lay the points with Mike Anderson's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Orange come into this home game vs. the Red Wolves off back to back upset home losses to Old Dominion and Buffalo.  But I love Syracuse to rebound this afternoon, as it's cashed 100% (10-0 ATS) since 1990 as a favorite of -2.5 (or more) points off back to back upset losses.  And ACC Conference favorites of -20 or more points are 39-19 ATS vs. non-conference foes, if our ACC team is off a loss.  Take the Orange

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Fullerton State Titans + the points over Nebraska.  The Titans have dropped their last five games to the point spread, and have lost their last three games, straight-up.  Meanwhile, Nebraska has won and covered its last two games.  Since 1990, though, road teams have cashed 59% off 3+ losses and 5+ ATS losses, if their opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Additionally, Fullerton falls into 141-56 and 74-37 ATS "contrarian" systems of mine based on their recent losing streak.  Take the Titans + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Wake Forest.  The Tigers come into this game off a 56-41 lost at Central Florida in their conference title game.  Meanwhile, Wake Forest put up a whopping 59 points in its season finale at Duke, and defeated the Blue Devils by 52 (59-7).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on a team which just scored 59 against an opponent which just gave up 56 points, and especially since that team has been installed as an underdog.  But favorites (like Memphis), off a loss in which they gave up 44+ points, have covered 86% away from home vs. foes off a win, in which they scored 44+ points.  Additionally, Memphis also falls into 206-138 and 24-5 ATS systems of mine, while Wake Forest falls into a negative 7-29 ATS system of mine based on its blowout win over Duke.  Take Memphis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Southern Utah.  Andy Enfield's Trojans were stunned, 102-92, here at home this past Tuesday by Santa Clara.  However, Enfield's teams have cashed 69% in his career off an upset loss.  And the Trojans might catch a break tonight, as the Thunderbird's second leading scorer -- Dwayne Morgan (13.0 ppg) -- is questionable to play due to pneumonia.  Regardless, we'll lay the points with the Trojans, as they're 34-17 ATS when favored off an upset loss, including 14-2 ATS when priced at -8.5 or higher.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats over Oklahoma.  Last year, the Sooners blew out the Wildcats by 26 points in Norman, OK.  But tonight's game is in Chicago, and I love Northwestern to avenge last season's defeat.  Indeed, Big 10 Conference teams are a perfect 16-0 ATS since 1995 when playing with revenge from a 13-point (or greater defeat) if they're off a 12-point (or greater) win in their previous game, and not getting more than a point in their current game.  Take Northwestern.

AT 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Minnesota.  This season, the Spurs are 7-0 SU/ATS when playing with same season revenge.  Tonight, they'll be looking to avenge a 128-89 defeat to Minnesota.  Lay the points with the Spurs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over the Furman Paladins.  Furman has been the surprise of this young basketball season, as it's 12-0, and has been ranked among the Top 25 for the last three polls.  And prior to this season, Furman had never before been ranked Nationally in its 106-year men's basketball history!  But all good things must eventually come to an end.  And I expect Furman's undefeated season will vanish tonight in Baton Rouge.  Indeed, undefeated teams with a 9-0 (or better) record, priced from +5.5 to +10.5 points, have cashed just 11 of 41 games vs. opponents off a straight-up win.  And over the last 22 years, SEC Conference teams have cashed 61.1% at home in non-conference games vs. undefeated foes (with a 3-0 or better record).  Take LSU.  Shockeer of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders + the points over Ole Miss.  The Blue Raiders have gotten demolished in each of their last three games, with losses by 28, 22 and 22 points.  I look for Middle Tenn to bounce back on Friday, as NCAA teams off three SU/ATS losses by 21+ points have cashed 61 of 98 since 1990.  Take Middle Tennessee plus the points.

At 7:05 pm, our Eastern Conference Game of the Month is on the New Jersey Devils over the Ottawa Senators.  The Senators may not be the worst team in the league -- far from it, but their struggles on the road have reached rock bottom it seems.  The only team with fewer than the four road wins that Ottawa has?  The Devils.  But they're home tonight, where they've won eight of 15 games, and they're looking to bounce back from a three-game skid.  Two of those losses were -- you guessed it -- on the road.  The Sens have a league-worst defense with a 3.86 GAA through their first 35 games.  They're hoping to get some help in that department tonight from the return of D-man Dylan DeMelo, however it appears the veteran blue-liner will need to sit out at least one more game with his upper body injury.  That could spell more trouble for Ottawa especially given the fact that the Devils have a pretty potent offense this season here at home (3.40 goals-per-game).  In a major upset, the Sens beat the Predators 4-3 in OT on Monday, but that may not bode well for tonight, as Ottawa is 4-11 in its last 15 after scoring four or more in the last game.  Take New Jersey.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Grizzlies + the points over Michigan State.  Last season, the Grizz lost to their cross-state rival, 86-73, as an 18.5-point underdog.  But I love Oakland to come within this large point spread tonight, as it is 22-11 its last 33 revenge games, including 13-3 ATS as an underdog.  Take Oakland + the points.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Butler Bulldogs minus the points over Cal Irvine.  Since 1990, the Bulldogs are a solid 39-20 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes when priced from -12 to +15 points.  And the Bulldogs also fall into 133-54, 290-184 and 167-85 ATS systems of mine.  Take Butler.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Ohio.  The Aztecs come into this game off 3 straight losses, including an upset home loss to Hawaii, as an 18.5-point favorite to end the season.  But San Diego State gets a chance at redemption in this game, and has been installed as an underdog vs. Ohio.  I love the Aztecs here, as Bowl underdogs have covered 71% over the past 25 years as underdogs of +13 or less points, if they lost outright as a favorite of -13 or more points in their final regular season game.  Additionally, Underdogs (or PK'em teams) have covered 64% in the post-season off back to back losses, when matched up against foes off back to back wins!  Finally, Mid-American Conference teams (like Ohio) have covered just one of the last seven Bowl meetings vs. teams from the Mountain West Conference, and have failed to cover the point spread by an average of 14.42 ppg.  Take the points with San Diego State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Cleveland.  The Hornets come into this game off back to back SU/ATS Home losses, while Cleveland pulled off a huge upset last night when it went into Indiana and won outright as a 12.5-point underdog.  Off that big win, and playing without rest, we'll fade the Cavaliers on the road tonight.  A major factor for me in this game is the fact that Cleveland upset these Hornets, 113-89, as an 8.5-point underdog back on November 13.  However, rested NBA teams (like Charlotte), off a home loss, are 61.3% ATS since 1990 when playing with revenge from a road upset defeat as a favorite of -6.5 (or more) points.  Take the Hornets to blow out Cleveland.  NBA High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Vancouver Canucks.  The Lightning began this Canadian road swing with a 5-4 OT loss to a very good Jets team, in Winnipeg on Sunday.  This, despite firing 47 shots at goalie Connor Hellebuyck (they won that battle 47-42 but lost the war in the end).  That loss ended Tampa's eight-game win streak in which it had out-scored the opposition by a total of 41-21.  The Bolts are rewarded for their hard work by way of a visit to Vancouver to face the 16-20 Vancouver Canucks, who beat Edmonton, 4-2, on Sunday.  Things could get ugly for the hosts tonight as the league's #1 offense (138 goals scored) will meet a defense that has allowed 118 goals -- 2nd highest in the West.  It doesn't help Vancouver's chances that its fourth game in just six nights.  And Vancouver is a poor 32-67 (minus 22 games on the money line) when playing its fourth game within a span of a week.  Even worse:  the Bolts are one of the best teams in the league coming off of a loss as they are 7-1 in their last eight in those situations (and 53-28, +16 games on the money line in their last 81).  Moreover, they're 45-24, +13 games on the money line, after giving up more than three goals in their previous game.  Earlier this season, the Canucks handed the Lightning one of their four home defeats, by a score of 4-1.  However, Tampa Bay is 12-5 when revenging a blowout home loss of 3+ goals.  Finally, the Canucks are 18-35 after scoring more than 2 goals in their previous game.  Take the Lightning.  NHL Road Warrior Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Texas Arlington.  The Mavericks have the unenviable task of playing the Bulldogs immediately after the Bulldogs lost back to back games to Tennessee and North Carolina.  Certainly, Texas Arlington was never going to beat this Gonzaga team, even if the Bulldogs hadn't lost its last two games.  But the fact that it did will surely add to Gonzaga's intensity tonight.  Since 2009, the Zags have cashed 71% off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Even better:  big NCAA home favorites of -20+ points have cashed 70.8% off back to back SU/ATS losses the past nine years.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  College Hoops Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Rangers over the Anaheim Ducks.  The Ducks are on an impressive 11-2 streak, but won 4-2 last night in Pittsburgh, so they'll have to take on the Rangers in Madison Square Garden without rest.  And just one of Anaheim's last 13 games was played without rest.  And that was its 3-2 win at Florida, on November 28.  Unfortunately for the Ducks, it's a poor 6-9 (minus 2 games on the money line) when playing on the road in back to back nights the last few years (and 71-90, minus 10 games on the money line, going back even further).  It's also just 6-16 (minus 12 games on the money line) its last 22 games following a road win by 2+ goals.  That doesn't bode well for Anaheim tonight, and especially not against a Rangers squad which will be looking to snap a 3-game losing streak.  The Rangers were faced with trying to snap a 3-game losing streak twice before this season, and they pulled big upsets each time:  as a +130 underdog vs. the Sharks, and as a +170 underdog vs. the Panthers.  Over the last three seasons, the Rangers are 12-7 (+7 games on the money line) off 3+ losses, and they're 97-70 (+24 games on the money line) going back even further.  Finally, New York has played well in its home building this season, as it's earned at least a point in 13 of its 16 home games (10-3-3).  The Rangers have won seven of the last eight meetings here, at home, vs. Anaheim, including each of the last four.  And those last four home games were by a combined score of 18-6.  Take the Rangers to blow out the Ducks. NHL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers minus the points over Northern Illinois.  Rod Carey doesn't have many blemishes on his coaching resume.  But Bowl success has eluded him.  Northern Illinois has lost its last five Bowl games (over the previous six seasons), by an average of 25.4 ppg, and they've all been defeats of 7+ points.  Not surprisingly, the Huskies went 0-5 in those five Bowl games.  It will be more of the same this season.  Take UAB to blow out the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Montana Grizzlies minus the points over North Dakota St.  The Bison come into tonight's game off back to back wins (1-0-1 ATS) vs. Eastern Washington and Missouri State, while Montana checks in off a loss nine days ago vs. Cal Irvine.  But Montana's loss was away from home, while North Dakota State's two wins were both at home.  Indeed, North Dakota State is 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS on its home court this season.  But away from home, it's a completely different story, as it's 1-7 straight-up and ATS.  Even worse:  the Bison are a horrid 0-20 ATS off back to back wins, when not laying 7+ points!  Meanwhile, Montana's a perfect 3-0 straight-up at home this season.  And it's 14-0 straight-up and 9-3-1 ATS (with one non-lined game) its last 14 at home.  Finally, Montana falls into 50-18 and 59-25 ATS systems of mine, based on its play this season.  Take the Grizzlies.  Perfect 10 Club Play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over Sacramento.  The T-wolves had won and covered six of seven to go over the .500 mark.  But they've lost their last four games, including an upset loss at Phoenix on Saturday, to fall three games under .500.  And one of those four defeats was to this Sacramento Kings club five days ago.  Minnesota was favored by 3 points in that game, yet lost by 11, 141-130.  The Kings did have to play last night in Dallas, and won outright as a 5-point underdog, so they'll be playing without rest, while Minnesota will be rested.  This is a great situation for the T-Wolves, as they're off a huge upset loss, while Sacramento is off a big upset win.  And NBA favorites of -6 or more points, off an upset loss, have covered 63% since 1991 vs. foes off an upset win, if our home favorite was also playing with revenge from an upset defeat.  Lay the points with Minnesota.  NBA Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Columbus Blue Jackets over the Vegas Golden Knights.  The Knights are wrapping up a four-game Eastern road trip with a visit to Columbus for only the second time in their history.  Vegas has played two bad teams in its last two games and both went to overtime with the Knights losing to the lowly Devils, 5-4, and then barely beating the Rangers, 4-3.  The Knights' biggest problem on the road has been their defense.  At home, Vegas sports the top defense/goaltending in the league, allowing an average of just 1.93 goals per game.  But away from T-Mobile Arena, that number rises to 3.50, tied for worst in the West (with Edmonton).  On the other side, the Jackets have been dominating their recent opponents on the ice, but not always on the scoreboard.  Columbus has out-shot its opposition in six of its last seven games (by a combined 232-188) but are just 2-5 in those games, including a 2-1 OT loss to the Ducks on Saturday.  I look for the Jackets to get back into the win column tonight, as Vegas is 0-5 this season on the road off a 1-goal win, while Columbus is 10-4 this season, and 23-16 its last 39 off a home loss.  Take Columbus.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over New England.  Since 1980, home dogs from Game 14 forward, off back to back SU/ATS losses, are 93-59 ATS.  Take the Steelers to bounce back off their 3 straight losses.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Illinois State Redbirds minus the points over Cleveland State.  Illinois State is just 6-5, but has played a relatively tough schedule thus far.  In their last three home games, they invited teams like BYU (a 92-89 upset win), San Diego State (75-65 loss) and Mississippi (81-74 loss) to Redbird Arena, and were underdogs in all three games.  Sandwiched in between the SDSU and Ole Miss games was a road game at Illinois Chicago, which they also lost (as a 2-point underdog).  So, yes, the Redbirds are on a 3-game losing streak, but they're also 4-4 in their last eight games, even though they were an underdog in ALL 7 GAMES that had a point spread on it (one game was against a Division II school, and non-lined).  Thus, today will be the first time that Illinois State has been a favorite since it played Chicago State in its 3rd game of the season, and just its 3rd game of 12, overall.  The Redbirds are 20-10 ATS off back to back point spread defeats, and they also fall into one of my favorite NCAA systems, which is 83-32 ATS since 1990, which plays on certain teams off 3+ ATS losses.  Take Illinois State.  NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Arizona Coyotes.  These two teams met in Arizona in November, and the Coyotes won, in overtime, 4-3, even though they were out-shot, 48-21!  Antii Raanta, however, was spectacular for Arizona, with 45 saves, and his team pulled off the upset.  Unfortunately for the Coyotes, Raanta landed on the Injured Reserve 10 days ago with a lower body injury, and remains sidelined.  Rookie Adin Hill is now between the pipes, and has made six starts.  He was great in his first three (2 goals in 89 shots), but poor in his last three (12 goals in 83 shots).  No team in the NHL has been as streaky as the Coyotes lately.  The team that is often a doormat for the rest of the league had a four game win streak between November 27 and December 4 (they also had a five-game win streak in late October).  The problem with this latest run of success is that it was sandwiched between two four-game losing streaks, the latter of which was broken when the Coyotes went into New York and upset the Rangers, 4-3 in OT, on Friday night.   The 'Canes on the other hand, lost their third straight that same night in a home thriller.  For 65 minutes, Carolina held the Champion Capitals to a 5-5 draw and only lost when the visitors got one by goalie Scott Darling in the shoot-out.  There's no shame in picking up a point on a night when Alex Ovechkin scores a hat trick and anything close to Friday's performance should yield a win for the home team in this Sunday matinee in Raleigh.  The Coyotes are 28-58 in their last 86 road games vs. teams with a losing home record, 1-10 off an overtime win, and 52-91 (minus 21 games on the money line) in non-conference games.  Take the 'Canes.  NHL Non-Division Game of the Month!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Last week, the Dolphins won one of the more miraculous games in NFL history, ranking right up there with Pittsburgh's Immaculate Reception (1972) vs. Oakland, and last season's Playoff win by the Vikings over the Saints, when Case Keenum connected with Stefon Diggs on a 61-yard TD pass on the game's final play.  Of course, everyone remembers those historic plays, but it's also important to remember what happened to those teams the next week.  The Steelers, of course, lost to the Dolphins in the AFC Championship game, while Minnesota was blown out by the Eagles in last year's NFC Title game.  Miami's win did place it back in the playoff hunt for this season, but their euphoria should be short-lived, as I expect Minnesota to rout them this afternoon.  Since 1980, NFL road teams in non-division games have cashed just 30% off division upset wins when they were a 6-point (or greater) underdog in that upset win.  Even worse:  if our play-against team (here, Miami) owned a .500 (or better) SU/ATS record, then our negative 30% ATS system crashes to 16% ATS since 1980.  This will be a blowout.  Lay the points with the Vikings.  NFL Non-Division Game of the Month.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over Appalachian State.  This New Orleans Bowl game pits the Sun Belt Conference against Conference USA.  We played against Middle Tennessee State in its last game -- the Conference USA Title Game -- which was a horrendous situational spot for it.  Middle Tennessee had just defeated UAB, 27-3, to end its regular season (its fifth straight ATS win, at the time), but then had to play UAB in a re-match the very next week for the Conference Title.  Not surprisingly, UAB upset the Blue Raiders in that revenge match, so Middle Tennessee comes into this game off a loss.  But it's still 5-1 ATS, which compares favorably to Appalachian State's current 3-4 ATS run.  Let's go against Appalachian State tonight, as .500 (or better) Sun Belt teams are a terrible 2-25 ATS as favorites vs. non-conference foes, if our Sun Belt team isn't off a SU/ATS win, and it doesn't own a worse W/L record than its foe.  Take Middle Tennessee.  NCAA Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.