Sports Picks & Predictions

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Philly.  It's true that the Eagles are red-hot, with six straight wins and five straight covers, including 34-24 and 33-10 blowout wins in their last two games.  And it's also true that Denver's offense has faltered lately, with three straight losses by scores of 23-10, 21-0, and 29-19.  But such streaks often create value in going against the hot team.  And Philly falls into a negative 40% ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams on 6-game win streaks (and 3-game ATS wins streaks).  And NFL teams off back to back losses where they scored 23 or less points combined in their previous two games, are a solid 65-42 ATS as underdogs vs. foes off 2 wins that scored 58+ points combined in those two victories.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over Jacksonville.  These two teams each played the Colts in their last game.  Jacksonville defeated Indy two weeks ago, 27-0 (and then had a Bye week), while Cincy barely got by Indy last Sunday, 24-23.  The fact that Cincy struggled vs. Indy, while Jacksonville blew Indy out has motivated a lot of bettors to plunk down money on the Jaguars this week.  But we'll go the other way, and take the points with the Bengals.  Indeed, the Jaguars have only been favored by more than three points once this season.  It was at the NY Jets, and we took the points with the Jets that game, and cashed when the Jets covered.  Moreover, the last time the Jaguars have been favored by this many points was December 26, 2010 -- almost 7 years ago -- and they lost outright to the Redskins!  And Jacksonville is 0-7 ATS its last seven when favored by 6+ points.  Take Cincy.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Houston.  Deshaun Watson sustained a season-ending ACL injury in practice, on Thursday, so ex-Pitt Panther QB Tom Savage will get the start for Houston.  Savage actually started on Opening Day vs. Jacksonville, and was sacked six times in the first half, before giving way to Watson in the 2nd half.  His stats in that half of football were 7-for-13, for 62 yards passing, and two fumbles!  Houston was scoreless in that first half (and ended up losing, 29-7).  That doesn't bode well for the Texans on Sunday.  And the Colts also fall into a 236-147 ATS sytem of mine.  Take Indianapolis.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the NY Giants + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  The Rams weren't expected to be this good, while the Giants weren't expected to be this bad.  But the NFL is often a topsy-turvy league, so here we are, in Week 9, and the Rams are favored on the road vs. New York.  But the last time the Rams were favored by this many points on the road was over 12 years ago -- September 11, 2005 -- when the laid 7 points to San Francisco.  And they lost outright, 28-25.  Indeed, the Rams have lost outright each of the last three times they were installed as a road favorite of -4+ points (including once as a 12-point favorite).  And they're 3-12 ATS when priced as a favorite (whether at home or on the road) of -3 to -6 points.  Finally, rested home dogs (like New York) with a .333 (or worse) W/L percentage, are a super 47-27 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Colorado.  We played against Todd Graham's men last week, and got the $$$ when USC blew out the Sun Devils, 48-17.  But we'll switch gears, and take ASU on this Saturday, as it falls into 90-42 and 78-31 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off blowout losses.  Additionally, the Sun Devils are a fantastic 26-12-1 ATS at home vs. conference foes when not favored by 5+ points, if they're off a loss.  And they're also a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS vs. the Buffaloes here in Tempe.  Meanwhile, Colorado is a money-burning 10-23 ATS as a road underdog priced from +2.5 to +17.5 points.  Take Arizona State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Buffalo Sabres.  Few teams made bigger moves this off-season than the Stars, who badly missed the playoffs this spring after winning the Division in 2016. They fired coach Lindy Ruff and hired Ken Hitchcock, a defensive guru.  Then they turned attention to their goalie needs by trading for the rights to Ben Bishop and signed him to a six-year contract. They also dealt for D Marc Methot and added depth down the middle by signing big two-way C Martin Hanzal to a three-year contract.  And, as if that wasn't enough, a few days after free agency started, the Stars won the sweepstakes for winger Alexander Radulov.  So Dallas went from pretenders to contenders while the Sabres -- although they made almost as many moves -- don't appear to be much (if any) better than last season (though it's still early).  Even worse for the Sabres:  they're already banged up, with no fewer than six regulars on the sideline, including three of their D-men (Bogosian, Beaulieu, and Gorges).  The Sabres are 1-4 in the last five meetings while the home team is 6-1 in the last seven.  Take the Stars.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights are 7-0 after thrashing Austin Peay last week, 73-33, and are now alone in first place in the American Athletic Conference's East Division (after South Florida was defeated by Houston).  Central Florida is also just one of five remaining undefeated teams.  But this will be a tougher-than-expected test against a 6-2 SMU squad.  The Mustangs have also gone 5-3 ATS this year.  And home dogs of more than 6 points, with a winning record (both straight-up and ATS), are 32-7 ATS since 1992 vs. undefeated teams with a 7-0 (or better) record.  Additionally, the home team has covered five straight games in this series.  Take SMU.  American Athletic Conf. Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Detroit.  The Kings have a big scheduling advantage tonight, as they've been off the past two nights, while Detroit is playing without rest after its 9-point win vs. Milwaukee yesterday.  We'll grab the points with Sacramento, as underdogs of +7 or more points, off 3 SU/ATS losses, that had (at least) the two previous nights off, are 94-55 ATS since 1980 vs. foes that didn't have the previous two nights off.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams minus the points over Wyoming.  Last week, Colorado State was favored by 10 points vs. Air Force, but was upset 45-28, so it failed to cover the spread by 27 points.  Meanwhile, Wyoming blew out New Mexico, 42-3, as a 2.5-point favorite.  So, it covered by 36.5 points.  Overall, Wyoming has gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS its last five, while Colo St is on a 3-game ATS losing streak.  It may look tempting to take the points with the home dog Cowboys, but be careful, as home dogs that covered their previous game by more than 26 points are a poor 28% over the past 30 years vs. foes off a pointspread loss of more than 26 points.  Even better for the Rams:  they're 19-7 ATS their last 26 road games, including 9-1 vs. .625 (or better) foes, and 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 7 or less points.  Take Colorado State in a blowout.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over Georgia.  The Bulldogs are off a 42-7 blowout of Florida, and ranked #1 in the country, but I expect a very tough game in Athens, on Saturday.  South Carolina has won three straight, and has held their last three foes (Arkansas, Tennessee, Vandy) to no more than 120 rushing yards.  It's also giving up less than 20 ppg on the season.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs fall into one of their worst pointspread roles, as they have covered just 28 of 85 home games off an SEC Conference win, including 1-9 ATS when priced from -18.5 to -24 points.  Even better for South Carolina:  undefeated teams, with an 8-0 (or better) record, that covered the spread by 20+ points in their previous game, are an awful 1-15 ATS when priced from -7.5 to -28 points vs. conference foes.  Take the Gamecocks.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack + the points over Clemson.  NC State lost, 35-14, to an excellent Notre Dame squad last week, but I love it to rebound here, at home, vs. ACC rival Clemson, on Saturday, as NC State falls into a revenge system of mine which is 73-32 ATS since 1980.  Moreover, the Wolfpack are 82.3% ATS the last 38 years as a home dog vs. conference foes, if NC State lost its previous game on the road SU/ATS.  Take the Wolfpack.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Air Force.  Army will look to snap its four-game losing streak to its rival on Saturday.  And Army will have a big advantage in that it had last week off to rest and prepare.  The Knights won their fourth straight game their last time out, a 31-28 victory vs. Temple.  And Army's now won nine of their last 11 games -- a hot streak not seen in Army football in over 20 years (since it won 11 straight games across the 1995 and 1996 seasons).  Air Force is also coming into this game on a win streak, as it's won its last three, including an upset win as a double-digit dog at Colorado State last Saturday.  Unfortunately for the Falcons, unrested favorites of 7 or less points, off upset wins as a dog of +7.5 (or more) points, are an awful 14% ATS since 1980 vs. rested foes off a win.  And Air Force is 1-8 ATS its last nine as a favorite of 7 or less points off an upset win.  Take Army.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Iowa State.  We played on the Cyclones last week in their upset win over then-undefeated TCU, as a 7.5-point underdog.  Iowa State is now 6-2, and ranked #15 in the country.  Unfortunately, .666 (or better) underdogs, off wins over undefeated teams with a 5-0 (or better) record, have cashed a paltry 33% the past 38 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  With the Mountaineers, indeed, off a SU/ATS loss to Okie State, we'll take West Virginia as the small home favorite on Saturday.  Lay it.

At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoies minus the points over Syracuse.  The Seminoles are mired in a horrible year, as they were upset, 35-3, on the road vs. Boston College last Friday.  And FSU is also now 0-6-1 ATS!  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Seminoles, especially since Syracuse is 5-0-1 ATS its last six games.  But consider that .500 (or better) NCAA teams (like Syracuse) on a 5-game (or better) ATS win streak have covered just 15.3% of the time since 1980 vs. a foe with a worse W/L percentage, which was also on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  That doesn't bode well for Syracuse on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that ATS winless teams (like FSU) are a perfect 10-0 ATS (at Game 8 forward) as a home favorite, priced from -3.5 to -13.5 in conference games.  Additionally, FSU falls into 84-32, 88-29 and 52-15 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to bounce back off losses.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the New Jersey Devils.  Despite the talent on their team, the Oilers are struggling lately, having lost four of their last five.  But take a look at who they've been matched-up against and you will see that two of those losses were against the defending Cup Champion Penguins and a third was against the Capitals.  And stuck in between the two pairs of defeats is a very nice win over a very good Dallas Stars club.  The Devils on the other hand come into tonight on a three-game win streak, but their quality of opposition has been somewhat the opposite of Edmonton's as New Jersey's victories have come at the expense of three pretty mediocre teams (the Canucks, Senators, and Coyotes).  Like his team, Connor McDavid, the consensus #1 player in the world, is off to a bit of a slow start -- at least by his lofty standards.  But McDavid will surely turn things around as the season gets going.  The Devils are 1-4 in the last five meetings and 4-12 in their last 16 after scoring two goals or less in their previous game.  They're also an awful 30-44 (minus 28 games on the moneyline) on the road off a shutout win.  Take the Oilers.  NHL Game of the Month.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  Miami won, but failed to cover the pointspread, in its previous game -- a 6-point victory over Chicago.  And it was upset by the New York Knicks in its game before that.  But the Heat are a super 106-79 ATS on the road under coach Erik Spoelstra if they lost against the spread in their previous game.  And they're also 10-0 ATS on the road in their last 10 off back to back ATS defeats, and 26-13 their last 39 as road underdogs!  Finally, the Heat fall into a 284-203 ATS system of mine.  Take the points with Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:00 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Florida Atlantic.  The Herd stumbled last Saturday when they lost, 41-30, at home, as a 15-point favorite to Florida International.  But Marshall had won its five previous games before that, and has covered five of seven on the season.  This week, Marshall will travel to play the Owls, and it's a critical game, as the two teams are separated by just one game atop the Conference USA East Division standings.  We'll grab the points with Marshall, as it falls into 51-15, 61-8 and 83-34 ATS "bounce-back" systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset losses.  Moreover, the Owls are 3-12-1 ATS their last 16 home games, including 0-4 ATS vs. foes off a SU loss.  And they're 5-19-1 ATS their last 25 as a favorite of less than 14 points (including 1-9 ATS vs. foes off a loss).  Take Marshall.  NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the Golden State Warriors.  The Spurs have played this season without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker.  After winning their first four games, they've dropped their last three (all on the road).  They now return home to the Alamo City, where they have gone 70-13 straight-up and 46-35-2 ATS at home in the regular season off a loss.  Last year, these two teams met in the Playoffs, and the Spurs were swept 4 games to none by the Warriors.  But one of the things I love to do is play on certain teams with revenge from a Playoff series defeat the previous year.  And the Spurs fall into my very best Playoff revenge angle, which is 30-1 ATS since 1991.  Moreover, San Antonio lost its last game by 14 points to Boston.  But it's 37-18 ATS in the regular season at home off a loss by 14+ points, including 17-3 ATS when not favored by more than 5 points.  Take San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Ottawa Senators over the Detroit Red Wings.  The Sens play with revenge from a 2-1 defeat here at Canadian Tire Centre on Opening Night, and also look to bounce back from their last two games, where they lost 5-4 at New Jersey, and 8-3 here at home.  The good news, though, for Ottawa is that #1 Center Kyle Turris will be back on the ice tonight after missing the three previous games with a viral infection.  The Sens are a super 11-1 at home when playing with revenge from a 1-goal loss, and they're also 8-1 after allowing more than three goals in each of their three previous games (and 6-0 after giving up more than 5 goals in their previous game).  Take Ottawa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Northern Illinois.  Both of these teams come into tonight's game with identical 4-0 Mid-American Conference records, so this game will go a long way toward determining the West Division's representative in the MAC Championship game next month.  Toledo blew out Ball State last week, 58-17, and is 11-1 ATS its last 12 off a win by 17+ points, including 8-0 ATS as a favorite.  And it's 29-7 ATS as a favorite of less than 21 points after cover the spread in its previous game by 8+ points.  Finally, home teams off a SU/ATS win, that average more than 38.63 ppg on offense (thru the season's first 7 games), are 173-106 ATS in the regular season in the past 25 years.  Take Toledo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vancouver Canucks over the New Jersey Devils.  The Devils are about to embark on a three-game road trip after taking two of their last three -- all at home.  But the two victories were against the Senators and Coyotes -- not exactly the cream of the NHL crop -- and they won both of those by a single goal.  Playing games across conference lines hasn't been kind to New Jersey recently as the Devils are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. teams from the Western Conference and 1-5 in their last six vs. teams from the Pacific Division.  They've also gotten banged up quite a bit lately as three of their top center ice men are out with injuries (Travis Zajac, Brian Boyle, and Michael McLeod) as well as their top RW (Kyle Palmieri) and one of the top D-men (Andy Greene).  The Canucks certainly don't seem to have a problem playing inter-conference games lately as they are 4-1 in their last five vs. teams from the East.  Take Vancouver.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over Anaheim.  The Leafs were my preseason pick (at 14-1 odds) to win the Stanley Cup, so I will be on them a lot this season.  And this situation tonight is a great one, as we get Toronto off 3 straight losses, and at a short price.  The Leafs lost those three games by scores of 6-3, 4-2 and 3-2, but they're 19-15 (+11 games on the moneyline) after allowing 3+ goals over each of their 3 previous games.  Also, Anaheim's #1 center, Ryan Getzlaf will miss tonight's game after getting hit by a puck in his face on Sunday.  Take Toronto.  NHL HIGH ROLLER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Houston Astros.  The Dodgers won a thrilling game six last night to force this final game of the 2017 season.  Of course the big news from last night was that the Dodger bullpen didn't implode and give up the lead once they had it.  Manager Dave Roberts didn't learn his lesson and he once again brought his closer, Kenley Jansen, into the game with six outs to go last night.  But unlike in the previous games, this time Jansen was perfect, setting up this winner-take-all situation tonight.  Tonight's starting pitching match-up switches from being "advantage: Houston" to "advantage: Dodgers," with RHP Yu Darvish taking the hill for the home team vs. RHP Lance McCullers.  Even worse for Houston:  in the last nine situations where a team came home down 3-2 in a World Series and won the sixth game, that home team went on to win Game 7 in eight of those nine.  Take the Dodgers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Boston.  After covering their first two games to kick off the season, the Kings have lost their last five games -- both SU and ATS.  But the Kings now fall into a 284-200 ATS system of mine.  Meanwhile, the Celts are on a 5-game win streak, but are a poor 3-18 ATS when they've won their previous four games.  Take Sacramento.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over Indiana.  The Cavaliers have dropped three straight games, and now own a losing record, at 3-4 on the season.  I love them to bounce back tonight, as LeBron James' teams have cashed 72% in his career as home favorites off back to back losses when matched up against foes off back to back wins.  Take Cleveland.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Philadelphia.  The 76ers have not been favored by this many points since March 30, 2013 (a span of 344 games), so it's virgin territory for the Sixers under coach Brett Brown.  Philly is a poor 178-228 ATS when favored at home vs. foes not off SU/ATS wins.  Take Atlanta.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the LA Lakers + the points over the Detroit Pistons.  We're two weeks into the NBA season, and the league's two best records belong to the Memphis Grizzlies (5-2) and Detroit Pistons (5-2). Detroit also owns the best pointspread mark, as it is 6-1 ATS, including back-to-back upset wins on the weekend over the Clippers and Warriors. And Detroit was installed as an underdog of +8.5 and +14.5 in those two games!  Tonight, the Pistons will finish their West Coast road trip with a game against Lonzo Ball's Lakers at Staples Center.  And this game is a fantastic spot to fade the Pistons, especially given that the Lakers will enter the contest off blowout losses to the Raptors and Jazz.  Since 1990, NBA teams, like Detroit, off back to back upset wins as an underdog of +8 or more points, are a poor 22-41-1 ATS, including 1-11 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers 'under' the total.  They're calling it basically the wildest World Series game ever.  And with leads being lost on five different occasions before the Astros finally walked it off in the bottom of the 10th, it's hard to argue with that assessment.  But even with 25 men crossing the plate, one thing that Sunday's game wasn't was the highest scoring in the Fall Classic.  Back in 1993, the Phillies and Blue Jays played a 15-14 donnybrook in game four that was won by the eventual Series Champs - Toronto.  So how did game five turn out in that series?  After firing every bullet they had in that fourth game, the Phils and Jays fought to a 2-0 final the following day.  And while this game may not turn out quite that way with a day of rest in between, two of the best starters of this post-season will lead their teams as RH Justin Verlander and LH Rich Hill take the mound in a must-win for the home team.   The key in this pitching match-up is the fact that if both of these starters are on their game, they can potentially go nine innings, and that's important given what's happened with both of these bullpens in this series.   The under is 19-8-3 in Astros last 30 when their opponent scores five or more runs in their previous game, while the Dodgers have gone 'under' in 12 of 14 following a game which produced 17+ runs.  And, with respect to the two starters, Rich Hill has gone 'under' in 75 of 115 (65%), while Verlander has gone 'under' in 28 of his last 43 nighttime starts; 7 of his last 10 road games; and 13 of his last 20, overall.  Take the 'under.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Indiana Pacers.  Sacramento opened the season with two straight ATS wins, but is 0-4 SU/ATS over its last four games.  But I love them to get the $$$ vs. Indiana, as Sacramento falls into a 200-131 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain road teams off SU/ATS losses.  In their last game, the Pacers upset the San Antonio Spurs, as 6.5-point underdogs, to level their record at 3-3 on the year.  Unfortunately, this season, .500 (or better) NBA teams have gone just 3-19-1 ATS off an upset win, including 0-11-1 ATS vs. opponents with a losing record.  Take the points with the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Denver/Kansas City game.  Last week, in a Thursday game, the Kansas City Chiefs lost a heartbreaker to the Oakland Raiders, 31-30.  The Chiefs were winning, 30-24, but succumbed on the game's final play, a 2-yard touchdown pass from Derek Carr to Michael Crabtree.  That was Kansas City's 2nd straight upset loss, as Pittsburgh stunned it, 19-13, here at Arrowhead 15 days ago.  So, the Chiefs are now 5-2 on the season.  Likewise, the Broncos also suffered their 2nd straight upset defeat, as they lost, 21-0, at the Chargers last weekend.  I expect a high-scoring game tonight, as .700 (or better) teams have gone 'over' the total 65.5% over the past 28 years, if they're off an upset loss, and scored 28+ points in that defeat.  Also, these two teams met twice last season, and both games went 'over' the total, by 17 and 5 points, respectively.  And since 2001, 11 of the 16 meetings here in Kansas City have gone 'over.'  Look for this game to sail 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Pittsburgh.   This Sunday night matchup features two teams with Playoff aspirations.  The Detroit Lions are 3-3, while the Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-2.  And I certainly have all the confidence in the Steelers, as they were my preseason pick (at 12-1 odds) to win this year's Super Bowl.  But this is a great spot to go against them as a road favorite at Detroit.  The Lions do come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses, but gained an advantage by having last week off to rest, and re-group.  And rested underdogs off a loss have cashed over 57% vs. unrested foes off a win since 1991.  Likewise, in matchups between non-losing teams, it's been extremely profitable (67.5%) over the years to take a team off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. a foe off back to back SU/ATS wins, so that also bodes well for Jim Caldwell's crew on Sunday.  But the clincher for me is that Detroit has covered the pointspread by an average of 4.5 ppg this season, while the Steelers have failed to cover by an average of 0.85 ppg.  And home underdogs off a SU/ATS loss have cashed a staggering 63% of the time over the past 38 years if they also owned an average pointspread differential of +4.29 (or better).  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Houston Astros.  Game four of the 2017  World Series last night followed a pattern that we've seen before -- most recently in game two in L.A.  That pattern is that both starters pitch very well deep into the game only to have the bullpen ruin it.  Last night it was the Houston relievers that imploded and cost the home team the victory.  It could prove to be a particularly costly meltdown (by Giles and Musgrove in this case) as the 'Stros must now face the best pitcher on the planet in what is essentially a must-win game five.  There were some questions about Clayton Kershaw and his ability to perform in the post-season coming into October, but the southpaw ace seems to have put those behind him as Kershaw has gone 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in four starts covering 24 1/3 innings (more than any other pitcher) this playoffs.  And the scary thing for Houston is that Kershaw seems to be getting better with each start.  With their win on Saturday, the Dodgers are now 22-7 in their last 29 inter-league games and 9-3 in their last 12 playoff contests.  Take L.A.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros 'over' the total.  Once again a Manager decided to use his closer in a non-save situation in a critical game and once again it backfired horribly.  This time, it was AJ Hinch bringing in Ken Giles with the score tied 1-1 in the ninth and Giles proceeded to give up three runs without recording an out.  And, just like that, the Dodgers tied up this series.  Now L.A. has to be considered the favorite going forward with Kershaw going tonight, and the subsequent game(s) being played back in L.A.  But starting pitching hasn't been the problem -- for either team really -- in this series.  With its melt-down last night, Houston's bullpen now sports a playoff ERA over five runs while the Dodgers pen -- though better -- hasn't been immune either.  L.A.'s normally perfect closer, Kenley Jansen, gave up another run last night (a HR) and now has allowed two runs on four hits in his last three innings.  LHP Dallas Keuchel gets the start tonight and, although he was very good this season, he allowed three runs in six innings (4.50) in his Game 1 start in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium.  The over is 4-1-1 in the Astros last six inter-league home games and 3-0-1 in their last four home games vs. teams with a winning road record.  Take the 'over.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Anaheim Ducks.  Two teams with identical records so far meet for the first time in 2017 as the Ducks visit Raleigh.  Midway through last season it became painfully clear that despite having one of the NHL's best defenses, the Hurricanes would not be a playoff team with an aging Cam Ward and inconsistent Eddie Lack as their goalie tandem. GM Ron Francis hopes he corrected the situation by acquiring Scott Darling from the Blackhawks for a third-round draft pick, then signing him to a four-year contract.   Darling has seen most of the work this season, although he had the night off in Carolina's last game, a 2-1 loss to the Blues.  The 'Canes also brought 36-year-old F Justin Williams back to be a veteran presence on the offense, and Williams thinks this fast-improving team will give him a shot to win his fourth Stanley Cup (he won his first here back in '06).  There's no questioning the level of talent on a mostly unchanged Anaheim team, but the Ducks are off to a slow start compared to 2016.   Injuries have certainly played a part, most notably the losses of #2 C Ryan Kesler and #1 D Cam Fowler.  Both are expected to be out until December.  The Ducks are 2-7 in their last nine games playing on 0 days rest.  Take the 'Canes.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over the Buffalo Bills, as Oakland falls into 145-67, 23-0 and 63-18 ATS systems of mine, based on various season statistics.  The Raiders are sitting on a losing, 3-4 record, in no small part due to an injury suffered by QB Derek Carr earlier this season.  But Carr is healthy, and back under center now.  And he led the Raiders to a thrilling, last-second win last Thursday vs. division rival, Kansas City.  Oakland still has much work to do if it is to get back into the Playoff picture, so it needs to go into Buffalo and get the upset win.  I believe it will, as Oakland is 28-17-1 ATS its last 46 as road underdogs, while Buffalo is a wallet-busting 7-21 ATS at home off a win, including 1-9 ATS vs. non-winning teams.  Take the points with Oakland.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Cincinnati.  Last week, the Colts were blown out, 27-0, at home by Jacksonville, while Cincy lost, 29-14, at Pittsburgh.  That 27-0 defeat, though, has triggered my very best "Blowout Bounce-back" system, which is 138-61 ATS since 1980 -- and 5-0 already this season, including a win two weeks ago on the Cardinals over the Bucs after Arizona was blown out by 27 in Philly the previous week.  For the season, the Colts are 2-5, and are certainly in the league's lower tier so long as QB Andrew Luck remains sidelined.  But they generally rebounc off losses, as they're 3-1 ATS already this season off a loss, and 29-9 ATS off their last 38 defeats (including a perfect 7-0 ATS when getting more than 6 points)!  Finally, NFL teams also tend to react well to being shutout at home in their previous games, as they're 57-36-2 ATS in that situation since 1980, including 33-9 ATS vs. non-division foes if our team isn't getting 13+ points.  Take the Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 am, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  We played on the Browns last week, as a home underdog vs. Tennessee, and got the cash when Cleveland fell, 12-9, in overtime, as a 6-point dog.  This week, the Browns have been installed as an even bigger underdog vs. the Vikings, in this early game played in London, England.  In the NFL, it's extremely dangerous to lay this many points away from home.  Indeed, since 1995, NFL underdogs of +9 or more points have covered 61% of the time (107-69 ATS) at home, or on neutral fields, including 26-16 ATS if our underdog is (like Cleveland) winless on the season.  That doesn't bode well for Minnesota on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that the Vikings have covered just 32 of 90 when favored by 7+ points in the regular season.  Take Cleveland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:15 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over San Diego State.  Hawaii does come into this game off a 37-26 win over San Jose, but it failed to cover the spread in that game, and has dropped five straight to the number, overall.  But we'll step in and take the points with Hawaii, as it falls into an 85% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 5+ ATS losses.  Also, the Rainbow Warriors are a solid 22-9 ATS as a home dog (or PK) off a win, while the Aztecs are a money-burning 8-15 ATS as a favorite away from home vs. .401 (or better) teams.  Take Hawaii.

At 10:45 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Arizona State.  USC is 6-2 this season, but hasn't made many friends in Vegas, as it's covered just once (vs. Stanford), and enters this game on a six-game ATS losing streak.  Arizona State, on the other hand, is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS its last four (all Pac-12 Conference games), including upset wins in each of its two previous games (as 17.5 and 9.5-point underdogs).  But those last two upset wins set up our play on Saturday, as NCAA teams off back to back upset wins as an underdog of more than 9 points are a poor 36.6% ATS since 1980.  Additionally, USC is a strong 22-9 ATS on the road off a straight-up loss.  Take Southern Cal minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Blake Griffin nailed a 3-pointer as time expired to upset the Trail Blazers, 104-103, in Rip City on Thursday.  But off that huge win, I look for a letdown tonight, at home, vs. Stan Van Gundy's Pistons.  And even though Detroit isn't undefeated like the Clippers, it has played even better than its 3-2 record would indicate, as it's 4-1 ATS.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are an atrocious 26-48 ATS off four straight covers, and also fall into a negative 31-65 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams on a win streak.  Finally, .500 (or better) teams off an upset win are a poor 1-16 ATS this season.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Houston Astros.  The left-handed pitching for the Dodgers has been pretty good in this World Series.  The right-handers however -- not so much.  The Dodgers turned to their first righty starter last night and the 'Stros lineup proceeded to light up Yu Darvish for four runs in less than two innings.  So tonight, the Dodgers will go back to one of their three southpaw starters in hopes of better things as Alex Wood takes the mound for his first-ever World Series appearance.  Wood was probably one of the most unlikely All Stars in the league this season as he went 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 27 games, including 25 starts.  His 5.79 ERA this post-season doesn't sound great, but Wood also has a 0.86 WHIP and seven strikeouts with no walks in 4 2/3 innings.  You may think that Wood is venturing into uncharted territory tonight, but that's not exactly the case.  Wood's only other career start vs. Houston was here at Minute Maid Park in 2014 and he threw a gem (no runs on three hits in seven innings).  Even with their loss on Friday, the Dodgers are still 8-3 in their 11 post-season games.  Take L.A.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves have won and covered four in a row in this series.  But they were favored by more than 14 points in the three previous games.  It's a much different story for this game, as the point spread indicates the game should be very competitive.  And College Football teams have covered just 36% since 1995 if they were playing on the road vs. a revenge-minded team which had lost SU/ATS each of the three previous games, if our road team was favored by more than 10 points in those three games, but is not favored by 5+ points for the current game.  New Mexico St. also had last week off, so it will be playing this game with an extra week of rest.  And New Mexico State has cashed 80% when playing with rest, if it was off a win, and its foe was unrested.  Take New Mexico State.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over Mississippi State.  Both teams are 5-2 on the season, and come into this game off SEC Conference wins.  The Bulldogs blew out Kentucky, 45-7, at home last week, while Texas A&M upset Florida two weeks ago, 19-17, as a 3.5-point underdog.  The Aggies' extra week off is a big factor for me in this game, as Texas A&M falls into one of my best College Football "Rest" angles, which is 101-45 ATS since 1990.  Moreover, since 1980, the Aggies are a strong 18-3 SU and 14-5 ATS at home when playing with rest vs. an unrested foe.  And they're also 14-2 ATS at home as an underdog (or PK) vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take the points with the home underdog Aggies.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Montreal Canadiens over the New York Rangers.  Two of the proudest franchises in NHL history are having seasons that no one would be proud of right now.  The Canadiens are 2-8 in their first ten games while the Rangers are only slightly better at 3-8 in their first 11.  Both veteran goalies -- Montreal's Carey Price and New York's Henrik Lundqvist -- have struggled mightily so far, and Lundqvist won't get the start tonight.  While the Habs have a solid back-up in Al Montoya (.912 sv pct and 2.67 GA last season), the Rangers traded away their #2, Antti Raanta over the summer, possibly when they were going to need him most as Lundqvist is now 35 years old.  Now they have to rely on Ondrej Pavelec tonight and that could get very ugly.  He was Winnipeg’s third-string goalie in a non-playoff season and he had a 3.55 GAA in eight NHL games.  New York also lost Derek Stepan in the off-season which creates a big hole in the depth chart at the center position.  The Canadiens are 8-0 in their last eight games following a home loss of three or more goals.  The Rangers are 0-5 in their last five road games and 0-4 in their last four vs. Eastern Conference Teams.  Take the Habs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers + the points over Southern Miss.  The Blazers lost at Charlotte in their last game, 25-24, as a 9.5-point favorite.  But they now fall into a bounce-back system of mine which is 90-36 ATS.  Take the points with UAB.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over TCU.  Both teams come into this big game with strong records.  Iowa State is 5-2 (3-1 in Conference), and has won and covered its last three games.  Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have opened the season with seven straight wins (4-0 in Conference), and held their last two opponents (Kansas, Kansas State) to 6 points, combined!  Unfortunately, NCAA teams have been awful on the road if they held each of their previous two opponents to 6 points or less, and their opponent is off a SU/ATS win.  Since November 1981, our road teams have covered just 19 of 66 in this role.  Iowa State's also 7-2 its last 9 as home dogs.  Finally, 7-0 (or better) teams are a wallet-busting 18% ATS since 1990 as road favorites of more than 6 points vs. foes that have both a winning SU and winning ATS record.  Take Iowa State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Washington.  The Huskies lost for the first time this season in their last game -- a 13-7 defeat at Arizona State -- after opening the 2017 campaign with six straight wins.  Off that first defeat, we'll fade the Huskies, as they fall into negative 45-94 and 22-65 ATS "Bubble Burst" systems of mine that fade certain teams off their initial loss of the season (following 5+ wins to open the year).  Even worse:  the Huskies are a woeful 6-23 ATS their last 29 home games priced from -9.5 to -21 points.  Take UCLA.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Penn State.  The schedule-maker certainly didn’t do the Nittany Lions any favors when it gave them back to back games against Michigan and Ohio State.  And even worse for Penn State is the fact that Ohio State had last week off, so it will be very well-rested for this game against the undefeated Nittany Lions.  I love Ohio State to blow out Penn State, as coach Urban Meyer’s teams have been terrific when playing with rest.  They’ve gone 27-8 in this situation, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. undefeated opponents.  Additionally, the Buckeyes have been on quite a roll over their last three games.  They covered all three, while scoring 56, 62 and 56 points, and winning by an average of 48.67 points per game.  And College Football teams that scored 168 or more points over their three previous games, combined, have gone 56-24 ATS in the regular season since 1998.  Take the Buckeyes minus the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Pitt, as UVa falls into an 161-87 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses (Virginia was blown out as a 7-point favorite last week, at home, by Boston College).  Take UVa to rebound off that defeat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Louisville.  The Cardinals earned their biggest win of the season last week when they upset the Florida State Seminoles, as a 6.5-point underdog.  But off that win, I expect a big letdown on Saturday in Winston-Salem against a Demon Deacons squad has lost its three previous games.  Notwithstanding its recent performance, Wake Forest is still 4-3 on the season, and needs to win two of its final five games to gain bowl eligibility.  Wake's schedule is difficult down the stretch, so winning this game is critical.  For technical support, Louisville falls into a negative 129-200 ATS situation that goes against road teams off upset wins as 6-point (or greater) underdogs.  And the Demon Deacons also fall into 72-32 and 88-29 ATS Conference revenge angles of mine (the Deacons do play with revenge, as they lost 44-12 to the Cardinals last season).  Finally, the Cardinals are a horrid 0-11 ATS the past 17 years off an upset win when not getting 3+ points!  Yikes.  Take Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the WVU Mountaineers + the points over Oklahoma State, as WVU falls into a 30-0 ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs +7 or more points.  Take WVU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros 'under' the total.  The fans who don't have a rooting interest, and the TV Networks that aired game two, no doubt loved what they saw on Wednesday night.  The Astros won a see-saw affair by a 7-6 final score in 11 innings.  But the managers likely didn't enjoy it much, as both bullpens imploded badly before the final out of a 4+ hour marathon.  After a total of four runs were scored through the first seven innings, nine more crossed the plate in the last four.  So, as tempting as it would be to assume that's going to happen again, it's not likely.  RHP Yu Darvish goes to the hill for the visitors, and Minute Maid Park is a place with which he is very familiar.  In six career starts here, Darvish is 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.74 WHIP.  If Darvish pitches like that tonight -- and keeps his pitch count down -- then don't expect to see closer Kenley Jansen in the 8th inning, which was Dave Roberts' ill-fated decision in game two.  That's a mistake that the LA manager is not likely to make again.  The 'Stros will go with RHP Lance McCullers Jr., who, like Darvish, has a nasty arsenal of pitches at his disposal  The under is 8-1 in the Astros last nine home games vs. teams with a RH starter, and 6-1-1 in the Dodgers last eight road games.  Take the 'under.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the OKC Thunder over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The Thunder were upset, at home, 115-113, earlier this week by the T-Wolves.  But I look for Billy Donovan's men to turn the tables on Minnesota tonight, as OKC falls into a 64.4% ATS revenge system of mine.  Moreover, OKC is an awesome 65-34-1 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset defeat.  And the T-Wolves are a poor 24-40 ATS at home when playing a revenge-minded foe whom the T-Wolves upset in the previous meeting.  Take Oklahoma City.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Boston College.  The Eagles come into this game off back to back wins, and five straight covers.  Meanwhile, the Seminoles are a shocking 2-4 SU and 0-5-1 ATS.  But I like Florida State to get the $$$ on Friday.  Since 1980, teams off 5 ATS defeats are 55-29 ATS vs. foes off 3+ ATS wins.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New Jersey Devils over the Ottawa Senators.  The Senators won all three meetings with the Devils last season, but the Devils turned the tables in their first meeting this fall, 5-4 in overtime on October 19.  And we'll give them the decided edge tonight again mainly for one reason.  The Senators just played a tough game down the road in Philly last night -- a 5-4 victory over the Flyers -- while New Jersey has had a full 7 days' of rest since its last game (a 3-0 shutout at the hands of the Sharks).  The 'Nats are having a particularly tough time in close games this season, losing four of five overtime contests, including three in the shootout.   After finishing with the worst record in the East, the Devils have nowhere to go but up this season, and so far they've done just that with a 6-2 record in their first eight games.  Their #1 overall pick in June's draft, 18-year-old C Nico Hischier has already made his presence known on the ice, logging seven points and a +1 rating through his first eight games.  Hischier may not have the hype of previous #1s Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid.  But like those two, Hischier will see plenty of ice time in his rookie season and will make an impact.  Ottawa is 2-5 in its last seven vs. teams in the Metropolitan.  Take the Devils.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the New York Islanders.  It's early in the season, but so far, home ice has not been very kind to the Minnesota Wild.  The team that had the most wins at home in the Western Conference last season (27) is 0-2 so far here at the Xcel Energy Center.  It should be mentioned however that those two home losses were both by a single goal, with one of them being an overtime defeat at the hands of the Blue Jackets.  All of the ingredients that made the Wild successful last season are returning this fall, including goalie Devan Dubnyk who showed why he is one of the most underrated net-minders in professional hockey.  For the Islanders, they had plenty of late-season success under coach Doug Weight, but it may prove difficult for them to maintain that level of play across an entire campaign, especially with the departures of D Travis Hamonic and forwards Ryan Strome and Mikhail Grabovski.  Minnie is 16-6 in its last 22 home games vs. teams with a losing road record while the Isles are 1-5 in their last six vs. teams from the Central division.  Take the Wild.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Toledo.  The Cardinals come into tonight's game on a 4-game losing streak.  And they're also 0-4-1 ATS their last five games (failing to cover by an average of 23.1 ppg).  Meanwhile, Toledo's off 3 straight wins, and two straight covers.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with the Rockets.  But Ball State falls into a 179-120 ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Likewise, Mid-American Conference home underdogs have cashed 63.4% if they are off back to back SU/ATS losses, and their opponent is off a win.  And College Football teams have won 64.1% the last 29 years if they failed to cover the pointspread by more than 15 points in each of their three previous games.  Take Ball State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Memphis Grizzlies.  David Fizdale's crew is 3-0 this season, including upset wins over Golden State and Houston in their last two games.  And Memphis was an underdog of 8+ points in each of those two games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Grizzlies tonight, especially given that Dallas has lost its last two games by double-digits.  But NBA teams off back to back upset wins as 8-point (or greater) underdogs have covered just 35.4% since 1990, including 1-10 ATS since January 6, 2014.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Columbus Blue Jackets over the Buffalo Sabres.  After their most successful regular season ever -- a season in which they topped 50 wins and 100 points for the first time in franchise history and won 16 straight games at one point -- the Blue Jackets will try to take it to the next level over the next six months.  After all that success in last year's regular season, the Jackets made an early exit in the post-season, losing in the first round to the eventual Champions, the Pittsburgh Penguins.  In the off-season, they acquired dynamic left winger Artemi Panarin from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for popular center Brandon Saad.  Although Saad was third on the Jackets in goals (24) and points (53), Panarin has scored 61 goals in his first two NHL seasons (17 of them on the power play), and gives Columbus a legitimate sniper from the left side.  Columbus has a big advantage tonight, in that it hasn't played since Saturday's game vs. the Kings, while Buffalo skated last night vs. Detroit.  And the Blue Jackets are 8-0 in their last 8 games playing on three or more days rest!  Also, the home team is 5-2 in the last seven meetings of these two.  Take Columbus.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Houston Astros.  Houston was my preseason pick (at 10-1 odds) to win the World Series.  But the Dodgers will be a formidable matchup for the Astros.  Still, the 2017 version of the Fall Classic is intriguing for several reasons.  First, the Astros and Dodgers have only played each other in three games in the last five years, so this is not a match-up that we see very often.  Second, it is the first time that two teams with at least 100 victories have met in the World Series since 1970 when the Orioles and Reds got together.  Finally, it will be the first World Series appearance for the pitcher who has been widely considered the best in the game over the last five years -- LH Clayton Kershaw.  Because of the extended time off that the Dodgers have had since wrapping up the NLCS in five games, Kershaw will go to the mound tonight in game one despite starting that fifth game against the Cubs.  He pitched brilliantly in that one and seemed to get the monkey off of his back that has been hounding him for years over his mediocre play in the post-season.  But he will need to excel in his first World Series if he is to fully redeem himself and put an exclamation point on a career that's included three Cy Youngs and an MVP.  And he's not yet 30 years old.  The home team is 5-0 in the last five meetings, and Kershaw was 8-0 this season vs. teams that outscored their foes by at least 0.5 runs per game.  Moreover, the Dodgers have gone 41-8 (+21 games on the moneyline) behind Kershaw when favored by -150 or more, while the Astros have gone a mediocre 51-51 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) vs. lefty starters the past two years.  Take L.A.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Montreal Canadiens over the Florida Panthers.  Montreal hasn't won any of its last seven games, which is its worst losing streak since it dropped nine in a row in 1940.  So, it goes without saying that the 2017-2018 version of the Montreal Canadiens is a far cry from the franchise that has won 22 Stanley Cups (and three NHL Championships in the years before the Cup).  But this team is clearly better -- at least on paper -- than its unfortunate 1-6-1 record to start the season.  For one thing, the Canadiens still feature the goalie who is widely considered to be the best on the planet in Carey Price, and new coach Claude Julien (he took over in the second half last season) should be given plenty of time to work out the kinks on a team that changed quite a bit in the off-season.  Perhaps a home game against the Panthers (who will start backup goalie James Reimer tonight) will help get the Habs back on track.  The Bell Centre is still one of the toughest places in the league for opposing teams, and the Canadiens have only hosted two of their eight games here so far this October.  Montreal has won the last three meetings with Florida and the Panthers are 2-8 in their last 10 road games and 2-6 in their last eight vs. teams from the Atlantic Division.  Take the Canadiens.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Cavs are just 1-2 ATS this season, and come into this game off an upset loss -- at home, no less -- at the hands of the Orlando Magic.  Cleveland was favored by 11.5 points in that ballgame, so its ATS loss lowered its regular season record as a favorite by more than 10 points to 15-24 ATS its last 39.  And, yes, it's true that many teams often bounce back from upset losses, or blowout losses.  But this current edition of the Cavs isn't one of those teams.  Indeed, they're 0-9 ATS their last nine off an upset home loss!  And they're also just 15-34-1 ATS off a loss by more than 7 points (including 1-10 ATS their last 11).  Finally, Chicago falls into one of my favorite NBA systems, which plays on certain teams off losses, which is 68-19 ATS since 1990.  Take the Bulls + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Detroit.  The Pistons have the best pointspread record (along with the Utah Jazz) in the league, as they're 3-0 ATS.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS after getting blown out, 128-94, on Saturday in Toronto.  But this is a great spot to go against Detroit, as NBA teams that are undefeated ATS (with a 3-0 or better ATS record) are a soft 30-63 ATS when not getting more than three points, including 3-17 ATS against an opponent off a double-digit loss.  And Philly is 22-8 ATS off a defeat on the road.  Take the points with the 76ers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Los Angeles Kings.  Needing some change after another disappointing season, the Kings fired GM Dean Lombardi and coach Darryl Sutter, the architects of their Stanley Cups in 2012 and 2014. Franchise icon Rob Blake is the new GM, and longtime assistant coach John Stevens moves up to the head bench position.  Last season, Jonathan Quick was limited to just 17 games due to injury, but that wasn't the Kings' main problem.  Their most glaring flaw was a lack of offense. The team tied Buffalo for 24th in offense despite ranking seventh in shots per game. That the team's only offensive addition was 35-year-old Mike Cammalleri, who notched a career-worst 10 goals last season in New Jersey, doesn't inspire confidence.  Now, it's true that the Kings broke out for six goals in their last game -- a 6-4 win at Columbus.  But Los Angeles is 0-6 after scoring 6+ goals in its previous game.  And it's also true that Toronto gave up 6 goals in a defeat, at Ottawa, on Saturday.  However, it's 7-1 following a game where it allowed six goals.  The home team is also 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Take the Maple Leafs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New England.  These two teams met in last year's Super Bowl, and the Falcons absolutely blew the game, as they were up 28-3, but lost 34-28.  We had a big play on New England in that game, but we'll switch gears and take the points with the Falcons in this re-match.  Certainly, this is the most important game on the Falcons' schedule this season, as they no doubt want to avenge that stunning defeat.  And I believe they'll get it, as they fall into a 19-0 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine (the same angle I used as a basis for my play earlier this season on the Houston Texans +13.5 over New England).  Also, underdogs have cashed 83% when playing an opponent off a win, which defeated them in the Super Bowl in the previous meeting between the two teams.  Even better for Atlanta:  it falls into 87-34 and 151-66 ATS "bounce-back" systems of mine that play on certain teams to rebound off upset losses (Atlanta lost as a 14-point favorite to Miami last week).  Finally, road teams that lost outright as favorites of -11.5 (or more points) are an awesome 88% ATS since 1986 vs. non-division foes, provided they weren't getting more than 7 points.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Red Wings over the Vancouver Canucks.  The Red Wings have a mission for the 2017-2018 season -- get back to being a playoff contender.  Detroit failed to make a playoff appearance last season for the first time in 26 years and so now with a new arena to play in, the Wings look to start another streak.  They're not off to the best of starts, having gone 4-3-1 so far including three straight losses coming into tonight.  But those losses were to the Lightning, Maple Leafs, and Capitals, three of the best teams that the Eastern Conference has to offer.  Tonight they will go from that to one of the worst teams in the West in the Canucks.  Vancouver has lost four of its last six games, however the two victories were against the Sabres and Senators -- not exactly the cream of the NHL crop.  That last one against the Sabres was not all that surprising, but it doesn't bode well for tonight as the Canucks are 2-10 in their last 12 games following a win.  They are also 2-6 in the last eight meetings and 1-4 in the last five in Detroit.  Take the Red Wings.  Game of the Week.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Portland Trail Blazers.  This is tough situational spot for the Blazers, who have been saddled with three straight road games to start the season.  And they have to play tonight's game without rest, as they were in Indiana yesterday to play the Pacers.  Meanwhile, Milwaukee will be at home for the 2nd straight night, as it was upset by Cleveland, 116-97, on Friday.  We'll fade Portland, as the Blazers fall into negative 20-62 and 18-47 ATS systems of mine that go against certain unrested teams off wins.  Additionally, Milwaukee's 10-2 ATS its last 12 vs. Portland.  And the Bucks are also 64.7% ATS over the past 28 years off an upset loss, if they're matched up against unrested winning teams off back to back wins.  Take Milwaukee.  NBA HIGH ROLLER!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs are 6-0, and ranked #4 in the country (after starting the season unranked).  But TCU is 0-3 ATS this season when laying 8 or more points.  And it's also a horrid 0-10 ATS its last 10 games at home.  That doesn't bode well for laying this many points.  Also, Kansas happened to lose by 45 points last week at Iowa State.  But Big 12 teams generally bounce back off blowout losses by 45+ points, as they've cashed 63% since over the past 21 years.  Finally, undefeated teams, with a record of 5-0 (or better) are an awful 35% ATS since 1980 at home vs. foes that failed to cover the spread by 20+ points in their previous game.  Take Kansas + the points.  NCAA Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish have been installed as a home favorite vs. the Trojans, and I can’t pass up taking the points with USC.  First, Pac-12 single-digit underdogs are a super 152-107 ATS vs. non-conference foes since 1980, so that bodes well for USC.  Also, Southern Cal has gone 1-6 ATS in its seven games this season, including 0-5 ATS its last five, while Notre Dame has won and covered four straight.  Now, on the surface, that may not seem like a good thing.  But pointspread failures also create value and opportunity, and that’s the situation here, on the road at Notre Dame.  Indeed,  teams off 4 or more pointspread losses are a super 73.3% ATS since 1980 vs. non-conference foes off 4 (or more) pointspread wins, including 9-0-1 ATS the last 10 when the game was competitively-priced with a pointspread less than 7 points.  Finally, the Fighting Irish are an awful 19-41 ATS as home favorites vs. winning opposition, including 4-18 ATS vs. foes with a losing pointspread record.  Take Southern California + the points.  NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Columbus Blue Jackets over the Los Angeles Kings.  Two of the hottest teams in the NHL meet tonight in an East-West match-up in Ohio's capital city as the 5-0-1 Kings visit the 5-2 Blue Jackets.  The Jackets logged 50 wins and 100 points (108) for the first time in their history, but were a big disappointment in their third post-season appearance, losing in the first round to the Penguins.  Columbus was on a four-game winning streak before being shut out by the Lightning in its last game Wednesday night.  But there's no shame in losing a close one to the Bolts this season as Tampa looks like one of the league's elite teams so far.  After a season that included an incredible 16-game winning streak, head coach John Tortorella returns for his second season behind the bench despite the big disappointment in the playoffs.  The Jackets are 7-1 in their last eight games vs. teams from the Pacific Division and the home team is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings of these two.  Take Columbus.  NHL Roadkill Winner!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks plus the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars shocked Troy State last week, 19-8, as a 19-point underdog, to improve their record to 2-4 on the season.  And off that win, South Alabama has been installed as a favorite vs. the 3-3 Warhawks.  Unfortunately, College Football teams generally suffer letdowns following upsets as a 14-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, and especially when matched up against .500 (or better) opponents, as they've cashed just 40% since 1980.  Even worse:  the Jaguars have covered just 1 of their last 10 at home when favored by 4+ points.  Take Louisiana Monroe.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over North Texas.  The Mean Green come into this game off back to back upset wins (over Texas San Antonio and Southern Miss), which moved their record to 4-2 on the season.  But those two upsets have placed North Texas in a negative system of mine which has covered just 31% ATS since 1980 (including 0-9 ATS its last 9).  What we want to do is go against any road underdog off back to back upset wins, if it's now playing a conference foe off a double-digit conference win.  With the Owls, indeed, off a 58-28 blowout win over Old Dominion, we'll lay the points with Florida Atlantic on Saturday.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State.  Kentucky is off to a great start this season, as it's won five of its six games, with its only loss by a single point to the Florida Gators.  And the Wildcats led by 13 points in the 4th quarter vs. Florida, but gave up two late touchdowns (including the last one with just 43 seconds left) to succumb, 28-27.  With that as a backdrop, it's hard to pass up taking double-digits with Kentucky, given that the Bulldogs are an awful 14-25 ATS as a home favorite of -10 (or more) points, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a win by 6+ points.  Even better:  Kentucky had last week off, so it will be well-rested, while the Bulldogs had to play a game vs. BYU.  And rested SEC Conference teams are a super 88-60 ATS on the road vs. non-rested conference foes, including 37-19 ATS when catching 8+ points.  Finally, the Wildcats fall into a 101-41 ATS System of mine which plays on certain rested teams.  Take Kentucky.  SEC Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on Virginia minus the points over Boston College.  The Eagles upset Louisville, 45-42, as an 18.5-point underdog last week.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams off upset wins the previous week, as an underdog of 14+ points, are an awful 40% ATS since 1980 vs. .500 (or better) opponents.  With Virginia 5-1 on the season, including 4-0 SU/ATS its last four, we'll lay the points with the Cavaliers.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Akron.  The Zips pulled off a huge upset last weekend when they went into Western Michigan and won outright, 14-13, as a 12.5-point underdog.  That also was Akron's 3rd straight win (and fourth straight cover).  But we'll fade Akron at Toledo on this Saturday, as underdogs of +3 (or more) points, off an outright win as a double-digit underdog, and on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak, have covered just 28% over the past 38 years vs. .666 (or better) foes.  Meanwhile, Toledo's a perfect 6-0 ATS at home vs. foes off upset wins.  And Akron's a horrid 0-10 ATS off an upset win, if its W/L percentage was .500 (or better).  Take Toledo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Idaho.  After struggling in their first four games, where they went 1-3 straight-up, and 0-4 ATS (failing to cover by 21.0 ppg), the Missouri Tigers have cashed the last two weeks in Vegas, as they lost again straight-up, but snuck inside the number vs. Kentucky and Georgia.  So, the fact that Idaho is coming into town (rather than an SEC Conference foe) must be a welcome sight for the Tigers, as they no doubt would love to snap their 5-game losing streak.  Missouri has been installed as a double-digit home favorite, and it is in its best pointspread role on Saturday.  Since 1997, Missouri is a perfect 13-0 SU/ATS at home when favored by 13+ points, if it lost its previous game!  And it's won those games by an average margin of 30.69 ppg, and covered by an average of 9.64.  Lay the points with Mizzou.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Colorado State.  The Lobos were shut out last week by Fresno State, 38-0, as a 2.5-point favorite.  That was by far the worst game the Lobos have played this season.  Indeed, they had covered the pointspread in each of their three games prior to that upset loss.  The good news is that College Football teams generally bounce back from such poor games, and especially if they were a reliable team against the spread theretofore.  For technical support, consider that home teams off losses, that failed to cover by 35+ points in that loss, are 72.2% ATS since 1980 if they also have a winning ATS record on the season.  Take the Lobos.  Mountain West Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Suns stunk up the joint on opening night, as they lost by 48 points to the Portland Trail Blazers.  Not surprisingly, it was the worst loss in the Suns' 50-year franchise history, and also the worst opening night loss by any team in the 72-year history of the NBA.  Of course, one of the things I love to do is play on teams off blowout losses, and especially when our team is favored by 7 points or less (or PK).  Such teams have cashed 76.9% since 1990.  Even better:  the Suns are 21-10 ATS the last 31 meetings between these two clubs, including 13-4 ATS at home.  Take the Suns.  NBA High Roller Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees.  The Astros went into the Bronx with a ton of optimism, leading the ALCS two-games-to-none and figuring that in a worst-case scenario they would come home with a 3-2 series lead.  But while the team flew from Houston to New York, the offense went somewhere else and the Yankees swept the 'Stros in the Bronx, and are now one victory away from their umpteenth World Series appearance.  The only good news for Houston -- other than being back home -- is that RH ace Justin Verlander returns to the mound in game six.  It was Verlander who got a victory in game two in a rare complete game, throwing 124 pitches.  And if he pitches like that tonight, then the 'Stros won't really need their offense (at least not to be at its best).  The Yanks have announced that RHP Luis Severino is healthy after he was forced to leave his game two start after just four innings and 62 pitches with an apparent injury.  With the Yanks' sweep in games three through five, the home team is now 7-0 in the last seven meetings.  Moreover, Verlander has gone 8-0 in his last eight starts, and is also 3-1 in his four career Playoff starts when facing elimination. Take Houston.  American League Game of the Month.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees and Houston Astros 'over' the total.  While the Astros offense may have gone to sleep in the three games in the Bronx, the Yankee hitters certainly woke up -- in a big way.  New York scored a total of 19 runs in the three games which is the main reason the Yanks are one win away from yet another trip to the Fall Classic.  Perhaps a trip back to Minute Maid Park will light a much needed fire under the Houston lineup.  The 'Stros led all teams in scoring in the regular season (896 runs) so maybe the hometown fans will remind them of this fact and the likes of Altuve, Springer, Bregman, and Correa will respond in kind at the plate.  The pitching match-up of RHs Justin Verlander vs. Luis Severino certainly favors the 'Stros tonight, but the big question is which version of Severino will show up?  Look for the Astros line-up to try to jump on the 23-year-old early and often, as the Twins did in the Wild Card game.  The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings of these two clubs and 12-3 in Severino's last 15 starts.  Take the 'over.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs + the points over Western Kentucky.  Old Dominion is 2-4 SU and has dropped its last 4 games (including a 35-3 blowout at Marshall last week), while the Hilltoppers are on a 3-game win streak.  But in Vegas, Western Kentucky has burned just as much money as Old Dominion, as each team is just 1-5 against the spread.  We'll take the points with Old Dominion, as home teams have covered a fantastic 79% of conference games since 1980 if they lost their three previous games, and failed to cover their most recent game by more than 12 points, while their opponent won their three previous games, but owned a losing ATS record on the season.  Take Old Dominion.  NCAA Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Kansas City.  We played against the Chiefs last week, and got the $$$ with Pittsburgh.  And we'll play against them once again, tonight, in Oakland, as the Chiefs fall into negative 115-206, 208-281, 126-20, 156-240 and 67-147 ATS systems of mine.  Additionally, Oakland comes into tonight's game off an upset loss last week vs. the Chargers, and four straight losses overall (both straight-up and ATS).  Now, on the surface, this may not seem like a good thing.  But consider that home teams are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursday nights off back to back losses, if they were upset in their previous game, and now face a division rival.  Moreover, the Raiders are 25-14-1 ATS as AFC West division dogs off back to back losses, including 14-2 ATS when priced from +2 to + 6 points (and 9-0 ATS if their foe is also off a loss).  Finally, teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have cashed 67.9% the past 18 years if they won at least 10 games in the previous regular season, while teams with a current W/L percentage better than .300 have cashed 63.2% at home off 4 SU/ATS losses.  Take the points with the Raiders.  AFC West Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Vancouver Canucks.  It's been an up-and-down season so far for the Boston Bruins.  Boston came out and won its first game here at home on October 5, beating the defending Western Conference Champion Predators, 4-3.  But it has stumbled a bit since then and look to get back on track tonight against a team that was one of the worst in the NHL last season.  The Bruins must be happy with the way last season turned out, because they made very few moves in the off-season and return with pretty much the same crew that got them to the post-season for the first time since 2014, but no further (they lost in the first round).  What they hope to do is carry the momentum they had when they switched coaches in early February.  Since taking over behind the bench for Claude Julien, coach Bruce Cassidy led the team to an 18-8-1 record and a bit of a slow start isn't going to concern him or his team too much.  The Bruins are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. teams with a losing record, while the Canucks are 0-8 in their last eight in the same scenario.  Take Boston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Houston.  This situation is similar to one from last season.  The San Antonio Spurs upset Golden State on Opening Night, as an 8.5-point underdog, and then traveled to play Sacramento in Game 2.  The Spurs were favored by 9 points vs. the Kings and won the game (but failed to cover).  Sacramento (by virtue of its proximity to Golden State) often played teams immediately after they played the Warriors, and the Kings were 6-2 ATS in those games last season, including a perfect 4-0 ATS when their foe was unrested.  That, of course, is the situation tonight, as Houston upset the Warriors in Oakland, 122-121, as a 9.5-point underdog last night.  And what clinches this play tonight is the fact that single-digit favorites are 0-13 ATS off an upset win in their opener, if they scored 105+ points in that Game 1 victory.  Take Sacramento.  NBA Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Chicago Blackhawks.  After playing five of their first six games of the season on the road, the Blues will come home to face the Hawks tonight in a huge divisional match-up.  St. Louis started out red-hot, beating the defending Penguins on their home ice in Pittsburgh on the night when they raised their Stanley Cup Banner to the rafters.  The Blues then reeled off three more victories -- including their only one so far here at home -- before losing their last two.  Of course what they did to the Pens is nothing compared with what their opponents tonight did to Pittsburgh in a game earlier this season.  The 'Hawks blasted the Pens by a 10-1 score at home one day after the Blues beat them.  But Chicago's offense has been much quieter lately, netting just four goals in their last two.  And now they have to play a team that's known for its stout defense and solid goaltending.  St. Louis has won eight straight off back to back road losses, which bodes well for the Blues tonight.  Also, the Blackhawks have not been at their best lately when they've played inside their conference as they are 1-8 in their last nine games against teams from the West.  Take the Blues.  NHL High Roller Winner!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in Game 5 between New York and Houston.  The Astros have destroyed Masahiro Tanaka the past three seasons.  He's made six starts vs. Houston, and New York has lost five of the six games, while his ERA in those six starts was 7.62.  And his worst start came right here, in the Bronx, earlier this season when he allowed 8 runs (4 home runs) in a 10-7 defeat.  The Yankees have gone 'over' in 29 of 45 games vs. foes with a .620 (or better) win percentage, while Houston has gone 'over' a whopping 49 of 77 on the road this season, including 25 of 37 when priced between +125 and -125.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs 'under' the total.  After two games in balmy L.A., the NLCS will shift to Chicago where the temperatures are forecast to be in the forties tonight.  The winds could also be blowing in from Wrigley's outfield, making it that much harder for the hitters in a series that's been dominated by pitching so far.  RHP Kyle Hendricks was very good in the NLDS, going 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts against the Nats.  Even more impressive, both of his starts were in DC with 40,000 screaming Nats fans trying to get him off of his game.  Hendricks will have the full support of the crowd tonight as he tries to get his team back into this series.  But the biggest problem for him might be run support as RH Yu Darvish goes to the mound for L.A.  Ignore the fact that Darvish only has one previous start against the Cubs.  His wide assortment of pitches could wreak havoc on the Cubs in the cold and windy conditions.  After all, it's not like Chicago's hitters have been lighting it up in this series.  Finally, the 'under' is 7-1-1 the last nine meetings between these two teams, while Hendricks (17-9 'under') and Darvish (20-11 'under') have been going 'under' all season.  Take the 'under.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Last year, the Cavs ousted Boston from the Playoffs.  But we'll play on the Celts to avenge that defeat, as they fall into a 60% ATS NBA Playoff revenge angle of mine.  Even better:  our particular Playoff revenge angle zooms to 16-1-1 ATS if the game is Early in the season, and is competitively priced with a pointspread of 5 points or less!  Boston's 5-1-1 ATS the last seven meetings in Cleveland.  Take the points.  NBA High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Indianapolis.  The Titans were upset in each of their last two games -- 57-14 at Houston, and 16-10, at Miami.  But they now return home to take on the Indianapolis Colts, who upended San Francisco last week, 26-23, as a 1-point underdog.  And one of the things I love to do is take favorites of more than 6 points on Monday Night Football that return home off back to back road games.  These teams have cashed 72% since 1980.  Even worse for the Colts:  they're a poor 35.7% ATS off an upset win vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take Tennessee minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Houston Astros.  Two veteran starters go to the mound tonight in game three as the ALCS shifts to New York.  But although RHP Charlie Morton and LHP CC Sabathia have 27 years and almost 4,400 innings of MLB experience between them, there is a big difference in the amount of post-season time the two have put in.  Morton has pitched in just two playoff games totaling 10 innings coming into tonight and has never appeared in a Championship or World Series.  Contrast that to the 21 post-season games totaling 117 innings that Sabathia has played in -- including four Championship Series and one World Series -- and you can see the true experience gap of the two starters.  Also, Morton has a 5.68 ERA in two career starts at Yankee Stadium, while Sabathia is obviously comfortable pitching at home and owns a career 2-1 record with a 4.15 ERA in three starts vs. Houston.  The Yanks are 13-3 in Sabathia's last 16 home starts.  And, finally, the Astros have burned money this season vs. southpaws, with a 23-24 record (minus 12 games on the moneyline).  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and New York Yankees 'over' the total.  By now, it must be painfully obvious to the New York Yankees that if they're to have a chance in the ALCS against the Astros, they're going to have to play some high-scoring games.  Both of Houston's victories in games one and two have been 2-1 affairs, leading to a 2-0 lead as the series now shifts to the Bronx.  And the good news in that regard for the Yanks is the fact that nobody scored more runs at home this season.  In their 81 games here, the Bombers plated 451 runs and blasted 140 homers, with both of those numbers being tops in the American League.  The other bit of good news for them is that veteran Charlie Morton takes the mound for the 'Stros.  Both of the RHP's career starts against the Yankees have come here in the Bronx where he has posted a 5.68 ERA in just under 13 innings.  The over is 47-28 for the Astros on the road, including 10-2 when the Astros gave up 1 run or less in their previous game.  The over is also 9-0 for the Yankees at home, if they allowed less than 4 runs in each of their three previous games.  Take the 'over.'  ALCS Total of the Year.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers 'over' the total.  After a pair of lefthanders led the way on the mound in game one in Clayton Kershaw and Jose Quintana, tonight's game two will feature more of the same.  The Dodgers won Saturday even though Kershaw wasn't at his best and tonight it will be veteran LH Rich Hill's turn.  You may remember Hill from his failed attempt at a no-hitter after nine hit-less innings against the Pirates on August 23.  For the Cubs, veteran southpaw Jon Lester will go to the mound.  Lester started game two of the NLDS against the Nats and then came in in relief in game four.  Both of these lefties are very talented, that's for sure, but in the Cubs and Dodgers you have two of the best hitting teams in the league vs. southpaws this season.  The Dodgers hit more home runs off of left-handed pitching -- 65 -- than any other team in the NL, while the Cubs logged a .264 batting average against them (fourth-best) and a league-best .349 OBP.  The over is 6-0-1 in the Dodgers last seven home games vs. teams with a winning record.  Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs have played superb football this season, as they're 5-0 SU and ATS (covering by an average of 9.1 ppg), including an opening week win at New England.  Pittsburgh, in contrast, has had an up-and-down season, as it's 3-2 SU, but 2-3 ATS (failing to cover by an average of 5.3 ppg), including a head-scratching home loss to Jacksonville last week.  In that game, The Steelers were favored by 7.5, but lost 30-9 to the Jaguars, so they failed to cover the spread by a whopping 28.5 points.  For the season, the Chiefs, then, have a pointspread differential of +14.4 compared to the Steelers.  But this strong relative success sets up our play, as the Steelers fall into a 79-33-2 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with a poor pointspread differential, as well as a 21-0 ATS subset of that general angle (which hasn't lost since 1992).  Finally, the Steelers are 8-0-1 ATS when priced between +7 and -3 points after giving up 28+ points in their previous game.  Take the Steelers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Rams were upset at home last week by Seattle, and fell to 3-2 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Jaguars upset Pittsburgh, 30-9, as a 7.5-point underdog in their previous game, and also have a 3-2 record this year.  But that upset win has set up Jacksonville in several negative systems of mine, with records of 48-92 and 49-91 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for Jacksonville:  it's covered just 9 of 28 off upset wins since 2008, including five of 18 at home.  Finally, .600 (or better) teams off upset losses have cashed 60.3% over the last 38 years vs. .600 (or better) foes off upset wins.  Take the Rams + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Tampa Bay.  The Cardinals have started the season 2-3, and were blown out by 27 points in their last game by Philadelphia, 34-7.  But one of the things I like to do in the NFL is play on home underdogs off blowout losses.  Indeed, we saw on Monday night the Chicago Bears rebound off their 21-point loss to Green Bay to cover the number as a home dog vs. Minnesota.  And, since 1980, teams off a loss by more than 20 points have gone 74-49 ATS as home underdogs if their opponent is also off a straight-up and against the spread loss.  Also, I don’t believe Tampa Bay’s performance warrants that it be favored on the road.  After all, it’s lost its last three games against the spread, and is just 2-2 straight-up this season.  And the Buccaneers have covered just four of their last 18 games when favored on the road.  Meanwhile, Arizona is 31-17 ATS its last 48 as home underdogs.  Take the Cardinals.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Houston.  It's true that the Browns are winless on the season.  But winless teams often confer value, and that's the case on this Sunday.  Indeed, since 1980, winless teams, with an 0-5 (or worse) record, are 63% ATS vs. foes that have a win percentage better than .250, provided our winless team didn't cover the pointspread in its previous game.  With the Browns off a SU/ATS loss to the Jets last week to fall to 0-5 this season, we'll grab the points in this game.  Take Cleveland.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Green Bay/Minnesota game.  With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Green Bay Packers have gone 'over' the total more often than not.  But the one situation where they've consistently gone 'under' has been on the road vs. division rivals.  And especially when the over/under line has been between 40.5 and 45.5 points.  In that range, Green Bay has gone 'under' in 10 of 11 vs. NFC North rivals on the road.  Indeed, the last three games at Minnesota have all gone 'under' the total (with the games from the last two seasons also falling within our O/U range of 40.5 to 45.5 points).  Last season, Rodgers passed for a pedestrian 213 yards, and threw one interception in a 17-14 defeat.  Green Bay did win the previous two seasons (30-13 and 24-21), but neither game was particularly high-scoring, and each also went 'under' the posted total.  I love the 'under once again in this game, as it falls into an 87-53 Totals system of mine.  Also, Minnesota has gone 'under' the total in 16 of 20 games off a win, including 12-1 'under' vs. foes with a W/L percentage of .571 (or better).  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At midnight, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors minus the points over San Jose St.  Hawaii was upset by Nevada, 35-21, as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday.  And that loss extended Hawaii's SU/ATS losing streak to four games.  But it's a super 63% ATS over the past 20 years off an upset defeat, while San Jose is a poor 29% ATS vs. foes off upset losses.  Hawaii also falls into a 102-64 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses.  Finally, Hawaii will have a big advantage on the ground, as it averages 5.7 ypg (against foes that give up 4.9 ypr), while San Jose only rushes for 3.2 ypr (against a schedule of opponents that give up 4.0 ypr).  And losing teams, favored by double-digits, that rush for at least 5.5 yards per carry have cashed 68% over the past 21 years vs. conference foes that don't rush for more than 3.5 yards per carry.  Take the Rainbow Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins over Arizona.  Both of these Pac-12 schools are 3-2, with each coming into this game off wins over Colorado.  UCLA played the Buffaloes two weeks ago (and, thus, are rested), while Arizona upset the Buffaloes in Boulder last Saturday.  Unfortunately for Arizona, that upset win has triggered several negative systems of mine, with records of 23-90, 74-159 and 95-169.  Also, the Wildcats are a very poor 2-17 ATS off an upset win when not getting 7+ points, including 0-10 ATS vs. .600 (or worse) opponents.  Take UCLA.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Michigan State.  This is a big letdown spot for the Spartans, who upset their rival -- the Michigan Wolverines -- in Ann Arbor last week, 14-10, as an 11-point underdog.  The Spartans are now 4-1 on the season, while Minnesota is 3-2 after its loss to Purdue last Saturday.  But .600 (or better) teams. off an upset win as a double-digit road underdog, are an awful 28% ATS on the road vs. foes off a loss since 1980.  The Spartans are also 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites.  Take Minnesota.