Sports Picks & Predictions

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over San Francisco.  Both of these teams are ravaged by injuries, with the latest being 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who sustained an ankle injury.  The 49ers, though, have survived better than the Eagles, as the 49ers are 2-1, while Philly is 0-2-1 after tying the Bengals last Sunday.  Curiously, the Eagles have been favored by 5.5, 2 and 5.5 points in their first three, but have yet to break through with a win.  Still, we will take Philly on this Sunday night, as we note that winless NFL teams are 100-61-4 ATS if they were not an underdog in their previous game.  Even better:  the Eagles are 114-79 ATS their last 193 as a road underdog, while the 49ers have gone 0-13-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. a foe not off a win.  Take Philadelphia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is the Miami Heat + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Lakers have won the first two games by double-digits to take a commanding 2-games-to-none series lead.  Since no NBA team has ever successfully come back from a 3-0 series deficit, tonight's game is a "virtual must-win" for Miami.  We'll grab the points with the Heat, as .605 (or better) NBA teams have cashed 60% in the Playoffs over the last 31 years off back to back double-digit defeats.  Even better:  the Heat are an awesome 48-24-2 ATS off back to back losses, including 34-8 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Bears have been installed as a home underdog this afternoon, notwithstanding the fact that they're 3-0 on the season.  And one of the things I love to do is play on really good teams (that are at least 3 games over .500) as home underdogs (or PK) vs. .500 or better opponents that are off a win.  Since 1980, our strong home pups are 100-69 ATS.  Even better, the Bears are a super 45-25 ATS as home underdog of +3 or more points, while Indy is an awful 16-29-4 ATS when laying 3+ on the road.  Take Nick Foles & Co. + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Last week, we played against the Rams, and took Buffalo as a small home favorite.  The Bills rewarded us with a last-second win, 35-32, which lowered L.A.'s record to 2-1 this season.  Los Angeles will now take on the 0-3 Giants, and the biggest difference between the two teams is on the offensive side of the ball.  LA is averaging 29.67 ppg, while New York has only scored 38 points this season, for a 12.67 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the offensively-challenged Giants.  But consider that NFL underdogs of +8 (or more) points have cashed 61.4% if they average 17 ppg less than their opponent.  And 0-3 teams have gone 25-10 ATS on the road vs. foes off a SU loss.  Finally, New York's 78-47-3 ATS on the road vs. NFC Conference foes, including 11-1 ATS their last 12.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles + the points over North Texas.  The Eagles were thrashed last week, 66-24, by the Tulane Green Wave, as a 3.5-point underdog.  And that was the 3rd straight point spread loss by Southern Miss to start the season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against Southern Miss after last week's debacle, where they failed to cover the spread by 38.5 points.  But consider that teams that are winless ATS, at Game 3 forward, that failed to cover the spread by 35+ points in their previous game, have cashed 60% ATS over the last 41 years.  That bodes well for the Golden Eagles tonight.  As does the fact that Conference USA underdogs are 63-31-4 ATS off back to back SU/ATS losses, when matched up against a conference foe off a loss.  Moreover, North Texas is a miserable 16-34 ATS in conference games when the pointspread was between +6.5 and -6.5 points.  Finally, the Mean Green fall into negative 285-395 and 90-196 ATS systems of mine that go against certain home favorites off straight-up losses.  Take the Golden Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Air Force + the points over Navy.  We played on the Midshipmen in their last game, a 27-24 upset win over Tulane (after trailing 24-0 at halftime).  Now, Navy will travel to Fort Collins to take on its military rival, who will be playing its first game of the season today.  Like many rivalries, this has been an underdog-oriented series.  Since 1992, the underdog has gone 19-8 ATS, including 6-1 ATS at home.  Additionally, the Falcons are 18-8-1 ATS their last 27 as an underdog, including a perfect 6-0-1 ATS at home.  And they're 88-63-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Finally, Navy has covered just 14 of 41 off an upset win when playing a non-conference foe, including 4-15 ATS its last 19 as a favorite.  Take Air Force + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Virginia Tech.  The Blue Devils have started this season 0-3 -- its worst start in the 13-year tenure of coach David Cutcliffe -- with three double-digit losses to Notre Dame, Boston College and Virginia.  But Cutcliffe believes his team is "close" to breaking through with a win, as he's been heartened by how his team has looked in practice.  The Blue Devils have been at their best when dressed up as an underdog, as they're 30-15-1 ATS their last 46, including 9-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +14.5 points.  Take Duke.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas A/M Aggies + the points over Alabama.  The Aggies will look to snap their 7-game losing streak to the Crimson Tide when these two SEC Conference rivals meet in Tuscaloosa, on Saturday afternoon.  In Texas A/M's first game, it edged Vanderbilt, 17-12, as a 31.5-point favorite, while Alabama comes into this game off a 38-19 win at Missouri, as a 28.5-point favorite.  We'll take the Aggies as a double-digit underdog, as SEC Conference teams have gone 145-81 ATS in the regular season against .500 (or better) SEC Conference rivals, if our 'play-on' team was off a SU win, but an ATS loss.  Additionally, the Aggies fall into 52-21, 41-14 and 32-6 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Aggies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Memphis.  The Mustangs are 3-0, and have been scoring a lot of points this season.  They tallied 50 last week vs. SF Austin, and 65 the previous week at North Texas.  For the season, they're averaging 48.67 ppg.  As faithful followers know, I love playing on NCAA teams that can score.  And NCAA home underdogs off back to back games where they scored 48+ points, have cashed 69.2% since 1980, including 76.1% when playing with revenge.  With SMU, indeed, playing with revenge from a 54-48 loss to Memphis last year, our 76.1% tightener is satisfied.  Take SMU.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over the TCU Horned Frogs.  Texas lost last season, 37-21, to TCU, so it will be out for revenge this afternoon, in Austin.  The Longhorns' offense has been quite impressive this season, as it's averaging 61 ppg, on 582.5 ypg of total offense.  One of the things I like to do is play on revenge-minded teams that can score.  Since 1980, NCAA teams that average 55 ppg have cashed 78.7% when favored, and playing with revenge.  Even better:  TCU is a horrible 16-42-1 ATS vs. .600 (or better) revenge-minded opponents.  Lay the points with the Longhorns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This NBA Finals match-up had the potential to be a fascinating series.  Unfortunately, the Heat sustained injuries in Game 1, and now will be hard-pressed to upset the Lakers.  But I love Miami + the points in this Game 2, as the adjusted point spread has more-than-compensated for the concomitant loss of talent.  And one of the things I love to do when betting NBA playoffs is to take a team in Game 2 when it's getting significantly more (or laying significantly less) points in Game 2 than it did in Game 1.  Sometimes this happens due to injuries (like in this game), while other times, the line gets adjusted off an unexpected result in Game 1.  But what I've found is that it generally pays (87% since 1990) to play on the team getting a better number in Game 2 than in Game 1.  Likewise, teams off a loss in Game 1 have gone 48-31 ATS in Game 2 when they were an underdog of more than nine points.  This will be a competitive game tonight.  Take Miami + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  Both of these teams enter today's game with identical 2-0 records.  But the Cougars have played the much more difficult schedule.  BYU opened its season with a 55-3 blowout of Navy.  And then it followed that up with a 48-7 trouncing of Troy State last week.  We played on BYU in last Saturday's victory, and we'll come right back with it tonight, as it's outscored its opponents by 46.5 points per game.  And that bodes well for it here, as teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 44+ points per game have covered 63% since 1980 when they were at home or on a neutral field.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 0-11 ATS when priced between +23 and +31.5 against non-conference foes.  Take Brigham Young.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the San Diego Padres.  Expectations were sky-high for Cards' RHP Jack Flaherty heading into the season, with some believing that the 24-year-old would be right in the middle of the Cy Young discussions.  But after a breakout 2019 campaign in which he finished fourth in the voting for the aforementioned pitching honor, Flaherty laid a big egg in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.  In nine starts, Flaherty went 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA.  And although his strikeout rate remained basically unchanged, his walk rate increased dramatically to a career-worst 3.6 per nine IP.  But all of that -- or a great chunk of it anyway -- will be forgotten if Flaherty can lead his team to victory tonight in the Wild Card finale.  Flaherty didn't face San Diego in 2020, but last season he threw five shutout innings in his only start against the Pads (his second overall start of 2019).  The Cards are 18-11 this season (+10 games on the moneyline), and 101-78 (+16 games on the moneyline) their last 179 off a loss, while the Padres are 75-94 (minus 18 games on the moneyline) off a win, and 40-49 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) at home, when priced from +125 to -125.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the New York Jets/Denver Broncos game.  Through the season's first three weeks, the games have gone 'over' in 29 of the 48 games, with overall scoring up this year over last.  Neither of these teams has shown a propensity to stop their opponent's offense.  The Broncos have allowed 70 points over their first three games (and would have allowed much more, but for Titans' kicker Stephen Gostkowski missing several FGs and XPs in Week 1). Meanwhile, the Jets have given up 27, 31 and 36 in their first three games.  This over/under is the 2nd-lowest number of the 64 games scheduled thus far.  And, by my math, it's too low.  Indeed, the 'over' falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 72% since 1996.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Denver.  In this match-up of winless teams, we'll take the homestanding New York Jets minus the points.  It's true that the Jets are 0-3 ATS, while Denver is 2-1 ATS.  But winless SU/ATS teams have cashed 65% over the last 40 years, at Game 3 forward, if they were matched up against a losing team with a .500 (or better) ATS record.  And on Thursday Night Football, teams that have yet to win a game have cashed 70% at home (and 81% if they weren't favored by more than 5 points).  Take the New York Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the St. Louis Cardinals.  The 5th-seeded Cards pulled off a mild upset over the 4th-seeded Padres on Wednesday, taking a 7-4 win and now are just one win away from advancing to the quarterfinals.  With Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger not eligible to play this round, the Padres will go with RHP and former Milwaukee Brewer Zach Davies.  The Brewers are also a playoff team, but Davies must be thrilled to be in San Diego, where it would appear there will be lots of post-season games in his future if he can negotiate a long-term contract at some point.  The 27-year-old followed up a solid 2019 campaign with an ever better 2020, going 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA in a full load of 12 starts covering just over 69 innings.  One reason it would be wise for him to stay in San Diego is his record at Petco Park.  In nine starts here, Davies is 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 53 innings.  Davies' teams are also 6-1 in his last seven starts as a favorite, priced from -125 to -175.  Take San Diego.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over Oakland. The White Sox will start rookie Dane Dunning, while Oakland will hand the ball to Michael Fiers. Also under consideration for the A's was southpaw Sean Manaea who, in my opinion, is a better pitcher than Fiers. But the A's were concerned about Chicago's 15-0 record this season vs. lefty starters, so they opted for the righty, Fiers, instead. I believe that was a mistake. Fiers' ERA this season is 4.58, but at home, it balloons to 5.81. Dunning's ERA is a nice 3.97, with a solid WHIP of 1.11. And in his lone daytime start this season, he threw five scoreless innings vs. the Royals, in a 5-2 ChiSox win. The bottom line is that, regardless of the starter, the A's are a less potent offensive team. Oakland's hitting just .223 on the season, compared to .260 for Chicago. And its runs per game is 0.6 less (but 1.1 runs per game in daytime affairs). Take the White Sox. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Atlanta Braves.  Game 1 of this series went 13 innings before the Braves finally got a run across the plate in a 1-0 victory.  The Braves used their ace on Wednesday and LHP Max Fried was spectacular, throwing seven six-hit innings with 5 K's an 0 walks.  But there's a pretty big drop off from Fried to rookie Ian Anderson.  More importantly is that Anderson isn't a southpaw.  The Reds simply can't hit lefties as evidenced by what happened Wednesday and so we can expect their offense -- which isn't bad -- to at least score some runs.  They led with their ace, Trevor Bauer, in Game 1, but not far behind Bauer is RHP Luis Castillo who will get the call this afternoon.  Castillo followed up his 15-win All Star 2019 with just a 4-6 record this season but his 3.21 ERA and 3.71 K:BB ratio were both improvements.  The Braves are 1-5 in their last six playoff games as a favorite.  Take Cincy.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees.  Yesterday, the Yankees drew first blood with a 12-3 blowout win over Cleveland.  Still, New York is a wallet-busting 13-18 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) on the road this season.  And it also has won just three of its previous nine games, while the Indians have won seven of their previous nine.  I love Cleveland to bounce back this evening against the Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka.  Tanaka has made four starts on the road this season, and the Yankees lost each of those four games -- by a combined score of 22-3!  Yet, the Yankees have been installed as a road favorite in this game.  I'm not buying it.  Take the Indians as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Chicago White Sox.  The White Sox drew first blood Tuesday, taking a 4-1 decision from the A's to go one win away from advancing in the AL playoffs.  Tonight it will be on 31-year-old RH Chris Bassitt to keep the series alive for the A's and force a deciding third game.  Bassitt just might be the least-known starter with ace-like numbers in the league.  In 11 starts this season, Bassitt is 5-2 and his 2.29 ERA puts him third in the AL in that category.   Bassitt has never pitched in the playoffs before but he should be up to the task.  Through his career Bassitt has done his best work here at home.  In 38 games (32 starts) at the Coliseum, Bassitt has a 2.63 ERA, a number that is two runs better than when he's pitching elsewhere.  And in four previous starts vs. the Sox, Bassitt is 2-1 with a 3.04 ERA in 23 2/3 innings.  This is a good month for Bassitt as the A's are 6-0 in his last six September outings and they are also 6-0 in his last six starts after he allowed one run or less in his last.  Take Oakland.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Houston Astros. We played on the Astros yesterday as a huge underdog, and they surprised the Twins in Game 1 of this series by scoring three runs in the 9th, and are now sitting in the catbird seat, needing only one more victory to advance. The Twins could have something to say about that this afternoon as they send veteran RH Jose Berrios to the mound. Berrios had some pedestrian numbers on the regular season (5-4 with a 4.00 ERA in 12 starts) but he has a way of stepping up in big situations and none is bigger than facing elimination. Incredibly, with the defeat on Tuesday, the Twins have now lost 17 post-season games in a row and if that doesn't motivate a team then nothing will. These two teams didn't play in the 2020 regular season, but prior to Tuesday's game, their last meeting was on May 2, 2019 -- a game won by Berrios after he pitched seven stellar innings, allowing two runs with five K's and no walks. This game will be played at Target Field and the Twins are 23-8 (+11 games on the moneyline) in their last 31 home contests. And unlike yesterday's game, where manager Dusty Baker could hand the ball to a gamer like Zack Greinke, his starting pitcher options today are not nearly as good.  Notwithstanding yesterday's win, the Astros are 4-12 this season in the underdog role (minus 7 games on the moneyline),   Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Cincinnati Reds.  The Reds are in the playoffs.  As strange as that sounds, it's true -- even if their 2020 post-season is a short-lived one.  The first round is after all a best-of-three series and nobody would be surprised if the Braves move on in two games.  But being here is still something for the Reds and their fans to be proud of.  Game 1 features a couple of strikeout artists in RH Trevor Bauer (CIN) and LH Max Fried.  The Braves would probably be smart to go with lefty starters in Games 1 and 2, if possible.  The Reds simply could not hit southpaw pitching this season, batting a paltry .200 against them with a .291 OBP (worst in the NL).  Only the Cubs' .196 BA vs. LHP kept Cincy out of the cellar in that category.  And Fried isn't just any southpaw -- he's one of the best in the game.  In 11 starts this season, the 26-year-old went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 56 innings.  The Braves are 16-2 (+14 games on the moneyline) in their last 18 immediately after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.  Take Atlanta.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays.  The Blue Jays are the biggest underdog on today's card, and I think the number is a bit out-of-whack.  Yes, Matt Shoemaker is not in the same class as Tampa Bay's Blake Snell.  But it's a team game, and the Blue Jays outscored Tampa 48-44 in their 10 games this season.  In Snell's last start vs. Toronto (August 24), the Blue Jays won 6-4.  And Toronto's won three of Snell's five starts vs. it over the last two seasons.  The Blue Jays were 12-8 (+5 games on the moneyline) vs. lefties this season.  And Shoemaker's 4-0 with a 2.56 career ERA vs. the Rays.  Take the underdog Blue Jays.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Oakland A's.  The White Sox will hand the ball to their big right-hander, Lucas Giolito, on this Tuesday afternoon.  Certainly, it was an up-and-down season for Giolito.  The high point was no doubt his no-hitter vs. Pittsburgh in late August.  And, at the time, that was his second straight game he struck out 13 batters.  But Giolito wasn't as effective after that, and he had a 4.07 ERA over his last five starts.  Still, he possesses a ton of talent, and has been installed as a favorite on the road today.  The ChiSox are 23-9 their last 32 as a road favorite.  And they're a jaw-dropping 14-0 this season vs. lefty starters.  Finally, Giolito has led Chicago to wins in 24 of his last 36 road starts -- and he was an underdog in most of those.  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins.  There's no doubt which team, and which pitcher has had the better 2020 season.  And that's Minnesota and Kenta Maeda.  But Houston should not be discounted.  Yet, that's exactly what the bettors are doing.  As of this writing, the price is up 20 cents from the opening odds, and 67% of the bets are going on Minnesota.  It's hard for me to pass up Houston and Greinke at this price.  After all, Houston's 29-6 (+18 games on the moneyline) when playing with rest.  And Greinke's 8-5 as an underdog of +150 or less.  And, of course, Minnesota's lost an MLB-record 16 straight playoff games since 2004.  So, yes, it's true that Maeda's Twins were 8-3 in his 11 starts this season, and he led the league with a 0.75 WHIP.  But it's also true that, in his only start vs. Houston in his career, he was bombed for 5 runs in 5 1-3 innings (a 14-0 Astros win).  Take the underdog Astros.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars.  Game 5 of this Stanley Cup Finals was one for the ages.  With their backs against the wall, the Stars somehow managed to survive yet again despite being out-shot and out-played by the Lightning.  And once they were able to get the game into overtime, they seemed to be energized to a different level.  Dallas prevailed 9:23 into the second overtime period on the second goal of the game by Corey Perry to stay alive and take this series to a sixth game.  Like he has done much of these Playoffs, the Stars' goalie Anton Khodobin kept them in the game and you have to wonder if he has it in him to do it again.  While this is a 3-2 series, the games really haven't been that close.  The Bolts have out-shot the Stars in all five of the games, and they hold a cumulative advantage in that category of 175 to 135.  Tampa is 64-25 (+25 games on the moneyline) in its last 56 immediately following a loss.  Look for the Lightning to wrap up their second Stanley Cup Championship tonight.  Take the Bolts.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over the Green Bay Packers.  Last week, the Saints went into Las Vegas, and were upset the the Raiders, 34-24, as a 4-point road favorite.  Meanwhile, the Packers hosted (and bested) the Lions, 42-21.  Off those two results, we'll take Sean Payton's men tonight.  Indeed, NFL teams off upset defeats as a Monday Night Football road favorite have cashed 65.1% since 1980 when matched up against an opponent off a win.  And Sean Payton's teams have gone 56-23 ATS vs. .500 (or better) teams off a win.  Lay the points with the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Arizona.  The Lions are 0-2 (so, what else is new?) to start the year -- the 7th time in 15 seasons they've started 0-2.  But they've been able to move the ball, as they've scored 21+ points in both games (vs. Chicago and Green Bay).  And 0-2 SU/ATS teams have cashed 60% in Week 3 vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  Detroit is 37-11 ATS on the road off a loss by more than 12 points, while Arizona is 8-18 ATS at home vs. foes with a W/L percentage less than .140.  Finally, since 1980, road teams off back to back SU/ATS division losses have cashed 60% vs. non-division foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Last week, the Patriots went into a difficult Seattle venue, and lost to the Seahawks, 35-30, as a road underdog.  Meanwhile, the Raiders christened their new Allegiant Stadium with a 34-24 comeback win over New Orleans.  Unfortunately for the Raiders, they will have to face an ornery Patriots team which will not want to fall to 1-2.  And New England is an awesome 10-0 SU and ATS off a straight-up loss when playing an .833 (or better) opponent off a win.  Finally, NFL road underdogs off back to back wins, in which they tallied more than 30 points, have cashed just 31.4% since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Patriots.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills over the Los Angeles Rams.  This line opened at -3, and has come way down -- to the point where I want to now step in and take the home team.  I had no interest in laying 3 points, but the value now squarely rests on the Bills.  Indeed, Buffalo falls into a great system of mine which is 74-33 ATS since 1981 which plays on certain winning teams not laying more than 1 points.  Yes, Buffalo failed to cover the spread last week in its win over the Dolphins.  But it still won, and is 2-0 on the season.  And the Bills also are 50-22 ATS at home off a point spread loss, if they're playing a foe off a SU win.  Meanwhile, the Rams are 2-0, following their upset win last week vs. Philly.  Unfortunately, winning teams are a soft 256-332 ATS on the road off upset wins, provided they weren't laying more than six points.  Take the Bills at home.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Troy.  Both of these teams come into tonight's affair off blowout wins on the road.  The Trojans trounced Middle Tennessee St. in Murfreesboro, 47-14, while the Cougars annihilated Navy, 55-3, in Annapolis.  One difference, though, between the teams.  BYU has had the last 19 days off, while Troy played last Saturday.  We'll lay the points with the Cougars, as rested NCAA home favorites, of less than 40 points, are 128-76 ATS in non-conference home games, if they own a win percentage greater than .750.  Take the Cougars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars.  We cashed again last night on Tampa Bay (we've now played on the Lightning in each of their last 20 games), and won't get off them tonight, given that they might hoist Lord Stanley's Cup.  Indeed, I released the Lightning as my NHL futures pick a year ago, prior to the season, at 7-1 odds, and it was one of my two favorite futures bets in the past 20 years (along with Virginia (2019) in NCAA basketball, at 22-1 odds).  Game 5 of the 2020 Stanley Cup Finals will have an interesting wrinkle, as it will be played with no rest after a grueling, overtime Game 4 that went late into Friday night.  When the smoke cleared, it was the Bolts who emerged with a 5-4 victory and a 3-1 series lead, needing just one more to clinch their second-ever Stanley Cup.  Last night's defeat was painful for the Stars, who had three separate leads in the game (1-0, 2-0, and 3-2) but simply couldn't put the incredibly pesky Bolts away.  And the penalty which set up Tampa's game-winning goal was questionable, too.  It's not known as of this writing whether the Lightning will rest goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy to go with back-up Curtis McElhinney, but we're not going to let that possibility interfere with our selection as the Bolts have consistently shown that they can win without key players on the ice this entire post-season.  This will be the second back-to-back game for Tampa in these playoffs, and it won the first one 7-1 over Boston.  During the regular season, Tampa was 8-3 in 11 games with no off-day.  Take the Lightning.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Miami-Fla.  Miami defeated Louisville, 47-34, last Saturday.  But it gave up over 500 yards to Louisville, which outgained Miami, 506 to 485.  The Hurricanes, though, benefited from three Louisvlle turnovers, and that was the Cardinals' undoing.  Meanwhile, the Seminoles had last week off to lick their wounds following a season-opening loss to Georgia Tech on Sept. 12.  There's no doubt that Florida State will be enormously motivated to bounce back today, especially given that it's playing with revenge from a 17-point defeat to these Hurricanes last season.  We'll grab the double-digit with Florida State, as rested, revenge-minded teams, off a season-opening loss, have cashed 66% since 1980 vs. unrested foes.  Even better:  the underdog in this rivalry has gone 26-12-1 ATS over the last 40 years.  Take Florida State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Chicago Cubs.  By now, most baseball followers know that the Nationals traded their #1 pitching prospect, RH Lucas Giolito, to the White Sox for OF Adam Eaton.  But what they may not know is that the Nats included another talented righthander in that deal.  That pitcher was former (2016) first round draft pick Dane Dunning.  The 25-year-old is making his MLB debut this season for the Sox and it has to be at least a little bit painful for the Nats to not only see Giolito doing so well, but also now Dunning developing nicely for Chicago.  The former Florida Gator will get his seventh start tonight and it will be first vs. the Sox cross-town rivals.  Dunning has done by far his best work in his new home ballpark, going 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA in three starts covering 16 1/3 innings here at Guaranteed Rate Field (vs. 1-0 and 4.30 on the road).  The Cubs will go with LHP Jon Lester and the White Sox are an incredible 13-0 in their last 13 games vs. southpaw starters.  Take the Sox.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers.  The Astros will turn to Lance McCullers tonight, and he's been spectacular over his last two starts.  McCullers faced this Rangers team on Sept. 16, and threw seven scoreless innings (2 hits, 0 BB, 8 K), and he followed that up with 6 2-3 innings of shutout baseball at Seattle.  He'll match up against veteran RHP Kyle Gibson tonight, and Gibson has a horrid 5.87 ERA in 11 starts (7.18 ERA at home).  In his last outing, Gibson was bombed for 7 earned runs in 4 innings at the Angels.  Houston is 101-44 (+21 games on the moneyline) as a favorite of -125 (or more) on the road, while Texas is a wallet-busting 43-79 (-8 games on the moneyline) as a home dog, priced from +150 to +200.  Take Houston.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Miami Marlins.  The Yankees are no strangers to finding a kid somewhere down south and signing him as a 16-year-old before anyone else can grab him.  A case in point is now-21-year-old Deivi Garcia.  The Yanks signed Garcia out of the Dominican Republic five years ago and this season the RHP is making his debut in pinstripes.  For the most part, it's been a successful coming-out party as Garcia is 2-2 in five starts so far.  The 4.88 ERA may seem a bit high, but Garcia also has a K:BB ratio above 5:1 as he has punched out 26 hitters and walked just 5 in 27 1/3 innings of work.  Garcia had back-to-back strong seven-inning outings against a very good Blue Jays lineup but then threw in a bit of a clunker against the Red Sox in his last.  But that was Garcia's first start at Fenway Park, and Fenway can be difficult for pitchers who have never thrown there.  The Marlins just punched their post-season ticket with their win over this Yankee club yesterday, so a letdown could be in order this afternoon.  Take the Yanks.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars.  As if the Lightning's fortunes couldn't get any better, they got captain Steven Stamkos back on the ice for the first time in seven months and as if that wasn't enough, Stamkos scored on his first shot of the game.  But it would also be his only shot as Stamkos didn't play in the final seven minutes of the first period and then didn't play the rest of the game, having apparently re-aggravated his injury.  But it didn't matter much as the rest of the Bolts players stepped up in his absence and Tampa cruised to a 5-2 victory to take a 2-1 series lead heading into tonight's crucial Game 4.  It was Tampa's most complete game of the series as the Bolts out-shot the Stars by 32-24 and out-played them on both ends of the ice, knocking Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin out after two periods.  It's unclear whether Stamkos will suit up tonight, but the truth is that it may not matter if the Bolts continue to play like they have.  Tampa is 46-21 in its last 67 after a win by more than two goals, while Dallas is 8-12 this season off back to back losses.  Take the Bolts.  As always good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over San Francisco.  The Padres will hand the ball to RHP Dinelson Lamet tonight, while the Giants will start southpaw Tyler Anderson (3-3, 4.53 ERA).  Lamet's been consistently brilliant this season.  He's made 11 starts, and has a 2.07 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.  And, most importantly, the Padres win when he starts, as they've won his last six outings, and nine of his 11 this season.  In those 11 starts, he's given up 1 earned run or less in eight of them, while he gave up 2 runs once, and 3 runs twice.  He's in great form, as he has had 32 strikeouts against just four walks and 11 hits in his last three games (20 2/3 innings), for an 0.87 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 8:1 K/BB ratio.  And his numbers have been solid against the Giants, as he has a career 2.70 ERA vs. SF.  Meanwhile, Tyler Anderson's teams have won just 12 of his 39 starts vs. division rivals.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Oakland Athletics.  The future of the NL West may someday belong to the San Diego Padres, but for now it's the Dodgers who reign supreme.  Los Angeles has clinched its eighth straight Division Crown and it will also finish with the League's best record in this shortened season.  But nobody knows better than the Dodgers that those eight pennants have resulted in zero World Series rings and it's now been more than 30 years since they have won it all.  If they're going to do it this year, they're going to need to stay as healthy as possible.  That's been problematic for young RH ace Walker Buehler.  But the good news is that it's been a blister problem that has sidelined the 26-year-old and those are normally very manageable.  Buehler gets his first start since September 8 tonight and no doubt he will be carefully watched.  He's been a beast in inter-league games, going 3-0 with a 2.74 ERA in eight starts covering just under 43 innings vs. teams from the American League.  Take L.A.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets got back into the series with a blowout win over Los Angeles on Tuesday. We stayed away from that Game, but will jump back into the fray tonight, and play on the Los Angeles Lakers.  Since 1990, #3-seeded NBA teams are a poor 37-57-3 ATS after upsetting their opponent in the previous playoff game.  Even better:  LeBron James teams are a jaw-dropping 21-0 straight-up, and 17-4 ATS as a favorite in the Playoffs vs. foes off back to back ATS wins.  Lay the points with the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers.  Houston's magic number to clinch a playoff spot is down to 2.  So, if the Astros win tonight, and the Angels lose, Houston would qualify for the playoffs.  We'll play on Houston, which is now 100-43 (+22 games on the moneyline) as a road favorite of -125 (or more).  Meanwhile, Texas is 14-31 (minus 10 games on the moneyline) as an underdog.  Take the Astros.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Cleveland Indians.  With a long-sought post-season spot now secured, it seems that the White Sox are going to be cautious with some of their veteran starters.  And none more-so than the southpaw leader of the rotation, Dallas Keuchel.  The former Astros-Braves veteran appears to be on some type of a pitch count, having not allowed a run in his last three starts, but also only having thrown a total of 14 innings in those (5 IP, 5 IP and 4IP in his last one).  That last start was a gem as he held the Reds scoreless while the Sox beat them and ace Trevor Bauer 4-0 in what would be a no-decision for Keuchel.  This shows how confident the Sox are in their bullpen right now and rightly so.  Chicago relievers are 16-8 with a 3.69 ERA on the season so far.  The Indians batting order has struggled mightily against LHP this season, hitting just .227 against them (fourth-worst in the AL).  Chicago is 19-8 in its last 27 games vs. teams from the AL Central.  Take the White Sox.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Cubs RHP Alec Mills gets his second start since tossing his first career no-hitter on September 13.  Not surprisingly, Mills' first start since the no-no was a bit of a let-down as the Cubs were soundly beaten 8-1 (and we cashed our highest-rated play of the season in that game on the Twins).  But that outing last Saturday was against one of the best offenses in the league, and Mills really didn't pitch that badly (4 ER in 6 IP with 7 Ks and 1 BB).  He gets a significant break tonight by facing the Pirates.  Just how bad is the Bucs' hitting this season?  They are batting a paltry .214 (somehow not the worst in the league -- CIN @ .211) and their OPS is an MLB-worst .619 which is almost 20 points below the next team.  Somehow, Mills lost to this team back on September 3, but that means this afternoon is a revenge situation as well.   Pittsburgh will go with RH Chad Kuhl and to say that the Cubs are a problem for him is an understatement.  In 11 previous games (10 starts) vs. the Cubs, Kuhl is 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA.  Take Chicago.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Sean Manaea's much-anticipated season got off to a rocky start as the 28-year-old RHP went 0-2 with a 7.65 ERA through his first five starts.  But after that point, Manaea got hot and reeled of four straight wins, allowing just one run in each and lowering his ERA more then three runs to 4.46.  Manaea's string got snapped in his last start on September 15, but that was at Coors Field so we'll give the Oakland ace a mulligan on that one and look for him to start a new streak tonight in Los Angeles.  Unlike Coors, Dodger Stadium is a good place for Manaea to get back on track as his only other start here was a good one (5 IP; 2 R; 5 K; 1 BB).   The A's are on a high right now, having just clinched their first Division Title since 2013.  The Dodgers will go with LHP Julio Urias and that may not be the best thing against this A's team.  Oakland has been feasting on southpaw pitching lately, going 9-2 (+6 games on the moneyline) in its last 11 games vs. LHs.  Take the A's.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars.  After getting pushed around pretty bad in Game 1, the Tampa Bay Lightning made some adjustments before Game 2.  Those adjustments paid off as Tampa built a 3-0 in the first period and was able to hold on for a 3-2 victory that evened this series at a game apiece.  Tampa achieved two important things in the process of winning Game 2.  First, unlike Game 1, the Bolts didn't let the Stars dictate the game with their physical play.  And it seemed like every time one of Dallas' physical players -- and there are quite a few of them -- hit someone, they got hit back.  Second, the Lightning were able to get to Stars' goalie Anton Khudobin early and often in building that 3-0 lead, and that could turn out to be the key to this series.  It also won't hurt that Dallas suffered a key injury on Monday night, with Blake Comeau leaving the game in the 2nd period.  The Stars generally have not responded well to close losses.  In their last 52 games following a defeat by one goal, the Stars are 25-27 (-7 games on the moneyline).  Take the Lightning.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Milwaukee Brewers.  These two NL Central clubs are locked into a tight race with the Giants and Phillies for the final two Wild Card berths in the National League.  Tonight's match-up favors the home team, as Trevor Bauer has a spectacular 1.80 ERA in 10 starts this season, while Adrian Houser's ERA in his 10 starts is north of 5 runs per game (5.33).  Bauer faced the Brewers twice this season, and pitched well, with a 3.65 ERA over 12 1-3 innings, and 20 strikeouts, against just 13 baserunners (1.05 WHIP).  In contrast, Houser's ERA vs. the Reds is 6.23, with a WHIP of 1.53.  In his lone start vs. Cincy this season, he was bombed (4 runs, 4 IP, 10 baserunners).  Take the Reds.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Cleveland Indians.  When White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito threw his first career no-hitter on August 25 against the Pirates, he saw his ERA for the season drop from 3.89 to 3.09.  But that seemed to be the high point (or should we say low point) as in Giolito's four subsequent starts, his ERA has risen back to 3.53.  But the good news is that although he hasn't come close to duplicating that August 25 accomplishment, Giolito has leading his team to victory.  In fact, the White Sox are 3-1 in those four starts and it's safe to say that his team wouldn't have clinched its first post-season appearance since 2008 if not for the work that Giolito has contributed.  Now a start opposite Shane Bieber is not easy to say the least, but the Cleveland ace hasn't been at his best recently, allowing six earned runs in his last two starts with one of them resulting in his first loss of the season.  Giolito's teams are 18-9 (+18 games on the moneyline) in his last 27 starts as a road underdog.  Take the White Sox.

At 3:05 pm, in Game 1 of the doubleheader, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals.  It's been a yo-yo type of season for Phillies RH ace Aaron Nola.  Two starts ago on September 11, Nola had his best outing of the season, tossing seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits with 10 strikeouts and no walks in an 11-0 rout of the Marlins.  But the 27-year-old followed that up last time out with a clunker against the Mets, allowing five runs in 5 1/3 innings.  And that's the type of campaign it's been for Nola so far -- a good start/bad start pattern for the most part.  That bodes well for this afternoon affair against the Nats in Game 1 of a DH.  What also bodes well for him is his winning record and 3.56 ERA in 10 starts covering just under 56 innings here in DC.  Last night's loss here ended what had been a six-game winning streak for the Phillies over the Nats -- all this season.  The Nats will go with RHP Austin Voth (7.17 ERA; 1.67 WHIP) and they are 5-14 (-13 games on the moneyline) in his 19 starts.  Even worse:  they're 10-27 against righty starters (-22 games on the moneyline) this season.  Take Philly.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over New Orleans.  Last seasons, the Saints won 13 games.  But NFL teams that won 13+ games the previous season have covered just 43 of 108 road openers when installed as a favorite.  Last Sunday, the Raiders went into Charlotte, and defeated the Carolina Panthers, 34-30.  Off that win, we'll play on Las Vegas in its home opener tonight.  Since 1980, winning teams, off a SU/ATS win, have cashed 65.3% at home on Monday Nights.  Even better:  the Saints are 3-10 their last 13 road openers, and they're an awful 0-7 ATS their last seven road openers when favored by 3 or more points.  Take Las Vegas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars.  When the Lightning looked across the ice Saturday night, it probably seemed like looking into a mirror.  If the Stars showed favored Tampa one thing in Game 1, it's that the Bolts will be facing a very different type of team than they saw in the last round.  While the Isles tried to beat Tampa with tight checking and defense, the Stars will be using a much more open-ice, offensive style of hockey.  And in Game 1 at least, they gave the Bolts a taste of their own medicine, so to speak, and came away with a 4-1 victory.  The good news for Tampa is that the only real difference-maker for Dallas was goalie Anton Khudobin who had to be at his very best once again (35 saves).  And while the Stars held a shot advantage through the first two periods, Tampa totally dominated in the last 20 minutes, and out-shot Dallas by a whopping 22-2 -- but just couldn't break Khudobin.  Tampa is 40-12 (+23 games on the moneyline) in their last 52 following a loss by two or more goals, and 10-1 this season after not scoring two goals in their previous game.  Take the Bolts.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Nobody can argue that Cubs' LH Jon Lester is now in the twilight of his career.  But having said that, crafty southpaws have a way of hanging around in the Majors if they can prove to still be useful out on the mound every five days (or in relief if necessary).  And despite some numbers that are tailing off, Lester has shown that he can definitely be a useful starter.  Like in his last start last Wednesday when the 36-year-old held a strong Indians offense in check long enough (five innings in this case) for his team to get the win. Tonight, the Cubs will face a much weaker opponent, as the Bucs have won just once in their last 13 games.  In his career, Lester is 12-6 with a 3.30 ERA in 25 starts vs. the Bucs, including a 6-3 record (in 12 starts) here in Pittsburgh.  The Cubs are 5-1 in the last six meetings and they are also 14-5 (+10 games on the moneyline) in Lester's last 19 starts after he allowed no more than two ER in his two previous games.  Take Chicago.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals.  The free agent pool for starting pitchers wasn't all that deep at the end of last season and with Gerrit Cole out of reach, the Phillies decided to gamble on former Mets' RHP Zack Wheeler.  Gamble is the right word too because $120 Million is quite a bit for a guy with a record barely over .500 and ERA around four runs, especially when he's already 30-years-old.  But right now the Phils are looking pretty smart with their decision to lock up the former first round pick (Giants).  In nine starts, Wheeler is 4-0 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.08 WHIP 58 1/3 innings.  It certainly looks as if the Phillies are getting their money's worth so far.  After back-to-back starts against his former team, Wheeler will get his second start of the season against the Nats.  The first one was near flawless as Wheeler tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing just three hits in a 3-0 Phils victory.  The Nats are 9-26 (-22 games on the moneyline) in their last 35 games vs. RH starters.  Take Philly.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Los Angeles.  We played on the Lakers in Game 1, and were rewarded with a 126-114 victory, as a 7-point favorite.  We'll switch gears tonight, and grab the points, as .600 (or better) underdogs, at the quarterfinal round forward, have cashed 60% in Game 2 of an NBA series off a SU loss in Game 1.  Additionally, the Nuggets are a terrific 36-13-1 ATS when not favored by 3+ points, if they lost by more than five points in their previous game, including 12-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Take the Nuggets + the points in Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Minnesota Twins.  When veteran Yu Darvish signed a six-year, $126 Million contract with the Cubs before the 2018 season, many were skeptical.  And then when Darvish got injured and proceeded to go 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA in just eight starts, the skeptics appeared correct.  But now that contract is looking like a bargain.  Darvish's 2019 may seem somewhat ordinary (6-8 with a 3.98 ERA in 31 starts), but when you look at the second half of last season (4 wins with a 2.76 ERA and 0.81 WHIP) and then what he's done so far in 2020, all of sudden you're talking Cy Young-type stuff.  In his first 10 starts this season, the RH is 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.  He looks to continue his dominance tonight against the Twins and an inter-league start just might do that.  In 21 starts vs. the opposite League, Darvish is 10-3 with a 3.06 ERA and he has a 1.77 ERA in three starts vs. Minnesota.  The Cubs are 6-1 (+5 games on the moneyline) in Darvish's last seven night games.  Take Chicago.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  Last year, the Ravens demolished Houston 41-7, as a 3.5-point favorite, which was Houston's worst loss in its franchise history when it had a winning record at the time of the game.  So, Houston's going to be out for revenge, here at home, on this Sunday afternoon.  We'll grab the points with the Texans, as they fall into a 62.7% ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that had a winning record the previous season.  Additionally, since 1980, home dogs of +6 or more points have cashed 67% if they were off a 14-point (or worse) defeat in Week 1, and their opponent was off a 14-point (or greater) victory.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Kansas City.  We played on the Chiefs in their home opener last week, and they rewarded us with a 34-20 victory over Houston.  And that extended the record of defending Super Bowl champs to 14-4-2 ATS in season openers since 2001.  Unfortunately, defending champs are a horrid 3-13 ATS in Week 2 as a road favorite after winning their season opener, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up win.  And .501 (or better) home underdogs have cashed 64.1% over the past 41 years when playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  This is a perfect letdown spot for the Chiefs, and especially because Kansas City also has a Monday Night game next week vs. the Baltimore Ravens, their closest competitor for AFC Conference supremacy.  Take the Chargers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Washington.  Both of these teams pulled off upsets in Week 1.  The Cards took down a very good 49ers team, 24-20, while Washington defeated Philly, 27-17 (after initially falling behind, 17-0).  It's exceptionally hard to pull off back to back upsets to start the NFL season.  Indeed, underdogs of more than 5 points in Week 2, that won outright as an underdog of more than 5 points in Week 1, have gone 1-28 straight-up, and 10-18-1 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Washington on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that, since 1980, NFL teams that won 25% (or less) of their games the previous season have gone 0-17 SU and 4-13 ATS as an underdog of 4+ points off an upset win in Week 1.  We'll lay the points with Arizona, as I look for the Cardinals to rout Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Philadelphia Phillies.  There haven't been many trades during this short season, but one that seemed to make a lot of sense for both teams was when the Mariners sent veteran RHP Taijuan Walker to the Blue Jays for a player to be named later.  With the M's not going anywhere this season it was logical for them to move their one-time top pitching prospect who is due to be a free agent at the end of the season.  And it makes sense for the contending Jays to have another seasoned arm in their rotation.  Walker is only 27, after all, and it seems as though he can make an impact for this young Jays team that has a shot at the playoffs.  Walker had a 4.00 ERA in five starts for Seattle, but since coming east he has logged a sparkling 1.56 ERA in four starts covering 17 1/3 innings with the Jays.  Walker has a 3.30 ERA in 10 previous inter-league starts and the Phillies have never seen him before.  Philadelphia is 8-11 (-6 games on the moneyline) in its last 19 day games.  Take Toronto.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.  Carlos Carrasco is having a very nice comeback campaign having posted a 3.27 ERA over 10 starts covering 55 innings.  That 3.27 number -- if the season were to end today -- would be the lowest ERA that Carrasco has logged since 2014 and the second-lowest of his MLB career which began 11 years ago.  The only number that's been elusive for Carrasco so far is victories as he is just 2-4 heading into this afternoon.  A start against the Tigers could help get Carrasco on the winning track.  The veteran RH has 11 victories in 30 games (24 starts) covering just under 142 innings vs. Detroit -- the second-most that he has logged against any team (KC - 12).  Despite their struggles at time this season and their loss here last night, the Indians are 26-8 in their last 34 road games against teams with losing records and 14-3 (+10 games on the money line) in their last 17 as a road favorite of -125 or more.  Detroit is 11-22 in its last 33 vs. Division opponents.  Take the Tribe.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers upset the Vikings in Week 1, 43-34, while Detroit fell to Chicago, 27-23.  And that loss by Detroit was after it led by 17 points in the 4th quarter.  Green Bay is favored by almost a touchdown, but it's not defeated Detroit by 7 or more points in any of the last six meetings (and by more than 7 points in any of the last 10 games).  The Lions are 4-2 straight-up in the last six games, and won by an average of 12 points per game.  We'll grab the points with Detroit, as NFC North division teams are a fantastic 63-33-4 ATS off a loss when matched up against a division foe off a win, including 25-9 ATS on the road.  Even better:  the Packers are 1-9 ATS their last 10 off a SU/ATS road win.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the New York Jets.  Last season, the Niners lost just three games.  So, it was a bit of a surprise last week when they were upset at home by the Arizona Cardinals.  The good news for San Francisco is that favorites in Week 2, off an upset loss in Week 1, have cashed 63% over the last 40 years, if they had a .750 (or better) W/L record the previous season.  Additionally, the Niners are 8-0 ATS as a road favorite of -5 (or more) points off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Niners.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Dallas.  Both the Falcons and Cowboys suffered Week 1 losses last Sunday.  Atlanta was upset, 38-25, at home by Seattle, while Dallas fell by three on the road to the L.A. Rams.  We'll grab the points with the Falcons, as road teams have cashed 65.9% over the past 40 years if they were upset in their season opener, and lost by 10+ points.  Additionally, the Falcons fall into 48-9 and 57-17 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road teams off blowout losses.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Titans have dominated their AFC South division rival in Nashville, as the Titans have won six straight (4-1-1 ATS), with the last two by margins of 22 and 21 points.  Since 1999, the Titans are 16-5 SU and 13-7-1 ATS at home vs. Jacksonville.  Last Sunday, the Jaguars stunned Indianapolis, 27-20, as a touchdown underdog.  We'll look for a letdown today, as NFL road underdogs off an upset win by 7+ points over a division rival, are a soft 83-128-4 ATS.  Lay the points with the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Buffalo.  Each of these teams were involved in games with double-digit margins of victory last Sunday.  Miami lost by 10 to New England, while Buffalo won by 10 over the NY Jets.  The Bills, though, have been a horrible team off a double-digit win over a division rival, as they've covered just 12 of 50 since 1981.  Meanwhile, Miami falls into 133-70 and 295-223 ATS systems of mine that play on certain divisional home underdogs vs. unrested winning opponents.  Take the Dolphins + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago Cubs.  Chicago's Alec Mills threw the second no-hitter of the MLB season in his last start.  And while the first one -- by White Sox ace Lucas Giolito -- was not surprising, Mills' accomplishment came out of left field (pun intended).  Mills was a 22nd round pick of the Royals back in 2012 who, in his last two seasons at AAA Iowa had amassed a record of 11-16 with an ERA around five runs.  And prior to last Sunday's no-no vs. the Brewers, Mills was 4-3 with a 4.74 ERA in 43 2/3 innings for the Cubbies.  The Twins will go with veteran RHP Michael Pineda tonight.  After missing all of 2018, Pineda had a very strong come-back season in 2019, going 11-5 with a 4.00 ERA and so far he's building on that in 2020.  In three starts, the 31-year-old is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA and an outstanding 20 strikeouts vs. just four walks in 17 2/3 innings.  In 18 career inter-league starts, Pineda is 8-4 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in just over 105 innings (vs. his overall career ERA of 4.03).  The Twins are 8-1 behind Pineda when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, while the Cubs are a poor 28-41 (minus nine games on the moneyline) when priced as an underdog of +150 or less.  Take Minnesota.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars.  It's been five days since the Dallas Stars wrapped up their series with the Golden Knights to reach their second Stanley Cup Finals ever (and first in 20 years).  But the Lightning are fresh off of their six-game series win over a gutsy Islanders team, and if they don't miss a beat on the ice it could be bad news for Dallas.  I don't expect Tampa to suffer in any way, as it's 61-23 (+23 games on the moneyline) when playing its 4th game in seven days.  And, despite the number of close results on the scoreboard in Tampa's Eastern Conference Finals series, most of the games weren't really that competitive.  The only thing that kept New York in Thursday's game (and some of the others) was the amazing play of goalie Semyon Varlamov who spent most of his time looking like he was facing a firing squad.  If the Stars are even the least bit flat coming into tonight, it could be a long evening for them.  The Bolts are 32-9 their last 41 after allowing one goal (or less) in their previous game.  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights minus the points over Georgia Tech.  Not much was expected of the Yellow Jackets this season, as they were picked to finish last in the ACC preseason poll.  But Georgia Tech stunned Florida State in Tallahassee last week, as a 13-point underdog.  Unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets, teams off an upset conference road win to start the season generally have letdowns their next game, as they've covered just 35% over the past 41 years.  The Knights are 19-6-1 ATS their last 26 when priced from -5.5 to -21.5 points.  Lay it.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Appalachian State.  Both Marshall and App State opened their 2020 campaigns with solid wins.  Marshall blew out Eastern Kentucky, 59-0, while the Mountaineers took care of Charlotte, 35-20.  We'll fade Appalachian State, as Sun Belt Conference favorites, with a .500 or better record, are an awful 0-12 ATS their last 12 (and 1-17 ATS their last 18) as favorites vs. non-conference foes off a straight-up win.  Take Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on Navy + the points over Tulane.  The Midshipmen were blown out at home in their first game of the season, 55-3, by BYU, as a 1.5-point underdog.  Meanwhile, Tulane went into South Alabama, and defeated the Jaguars by three points, 27-24.  The fact that Navy lost to BYU should not have come as a surprise, as the Midshipmen are 8-16 their last 24 home openers.  But Navy's gone 12-5-1 ATS its last 18 road openers, and it's 119-65 ATS its last 184 away from Annapolis, including 33-8 ATS off a home defeat.  Take Navy to rebound this afternoon.  Grab the points.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Seattle Mariners.  Despite everything that's going on right now, it's a good time to be a member of the Padres (or a fan).  San Diego's young baseball team is looking like the 2nd best club in the National League right now and what seemed like an impossible feat only a few weeks ago -- catching the Dodgers -- is now within grasp.  While L.A. has to go into Denver (always dicey) this weekend, the Padres get three games vs. Seattle.  Also, San Diego will be designated as the "road" team in this series, but each game will be played in San Diego, as Seattle's air quality was deemed unsafe, due to the fires, so the games were moved away from Seattle.  Starting things out on the mound will be RHP Chris Paddack.  Paddack was looking like a sure-fire ace heading into this season after a 2019 in which he won nine games with a 3.33 ERA, but he's struggled a bit so far.  But while his ERA is high at 4.74 (in 10 starts), Paddack's walk rate has actually improved (to a low 1.6 free passes per nine innings) and his K:BB ratio has increased as a result (5.78).  A start vs. Seattle should be just what Paddack needs.  The Pads are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  Take San Diego.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver.   The Nuggets come into this game off back to back upset wins to defeat the Clippers in seven games.  Unfortunately for Denver, NBA teams off back to back upset wins have only cashed the opening game of a series eight of 29 games since 1991.  That doesn't bode well for Denver.  Nor does the fact that LeBron James' teams have gone 50-27 ATS in his career when they were favored by 2+ points, provided they were not leading in the series.  Finally, teams off back to back playoff wins have only covered 24 of 63 games if they were an underdog away from home, and they were off back to back covers by 10+ points.  Take Los Angeles minus the points in Game 1.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Cincinnati.  The Browns were roasted, 38-6, in Week 1 by the Baltimore Ravens.  But I love Cleveland to rebound on this Thursday night vs. its AFC North division rival, Cincinnati.  The last thing any NFL teams wants to do to start a season is go 0-2, and especially if each of its first two games are division contests.  Indeed, over the last 30 years, favorites have cashed 70.3% in division games in Week 2, if they lost to another division foe in Week 1, including 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS the last eight.  That bodes well for Cleveland tonight.  As does the fact that NFL teams that failed to cover the spread by 23+ points in Week 1, have rebounded to go 21-7 ATS in Week 2 vs. an opponent also off a loss, if our team was not getting 10+ points.  Take Cleveland minus the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders.  With the 2-1 defeat on Tuesday night that went into the 92nd minute of play, the Lightning have now played five overtime games since the playoffs began.  Tuesday's was the first one in which they came up on the short end.  In their last two OT contests (Boston on August 25 and 31), the Bolts came back in the next game to win easily (7-1 against the Bruins and 8-2 in Game 1 of this series).  Tampa will be looking to make it three in a row and, by doing so, it will punch its ticket to its first Stanley Cup Finals in five years to take on the Dallas Stars.  Once again in Game 5 the Bolts out-shot their opponents like they have in every game of this series, save one (Game 2) , and they appeared to dominate play throughout most of the OT affair.  It was the first time the Lightning had been held to a single goal since Game 2 of the Columbus series.  But the good news for tonight is that they are 43-8 in their last 51 after scoring two goals or less in their previous game.  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Miami.  The Celtics lost Game 1 in overtime, 117-114, and now trail the Miami Heat 1-0 in the series.  We'll lay the points with Boston as it's 23-13 ATS when it trails by exactly one game in a Playoff series, including 16-5 ATS away from home.  Even better:  Boston is 50-30 ATS its last 80 vs. the Heat, including 26-9 ATS when the line was between +4.5 and -4.5 points.  And, finally, teams off a SU/ATS win to open a series have cashed just 36% over the last 31 years if they scored more than 115 points in their Game 1 victory.  Take Boston minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers. In his last start, Indians' RHP Shane Bieber did something he doesn't do very often. The leading candidate for the AL Cy Young took his first loss of the season in his 10th start and so he is now 7-1 on the season. But in true Bieber style, the 25-year-old still had a quality start, tossing seven innings of five-hit, three-run ball against a very good Twins lineup. He gets rewarded tonight by getting his second start of the season against the Tigers. Overall Bieber is 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in five career starts vs. Detroit so the Cleveland ace stands a good chance of redeeming himself tonight in Detroit. If those numbers seem dominant, check out his career stats here at Comerica Park: 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA and 0.60 WHIP in three starts covering 21 2/3 innings. If there's anything that can get Cleveland out of its current funk, it's a series against Detroit. The Tribe is 42-9 in the last 51 meetings overall and 22-5 in the last 27 in the Motor City. Take Cleveland.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago Cubs.  There was a time not that long ago when Jon Lester was one of the top half-dozen southpaw starters in the League.  It appears that those days are behind him as Lester is struggling for the second consecutive year.  Lester did turn things around a bit in his last start, throwing six shutout innings against a very good Brewers line-up, allowing just three hits with eight punch-outs and two walks.  But his offense did nothing and the Cubs lost 1-0.  For the season, Lester has an ERA north of five runs.  And at home, the ERA balloons to 9.00, with a 1.63 WHIP in four Wrigley Field starts.  Aaron Civale will get the start for the Tribe, and he has a 3.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in nine starts, including 3.43/1.09 in interleague games.  Cleveland is a super 12-5 this season as a road favorite, and 25-14 their last 39 vs. NL Central division foes.  Take the Indians.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Denver.  The Clippers surely did not expect this quarterfinals series to last this long.  But here we are, and the Clippers now have their backs against the wall.  I expect them to react well to the pressure, and to take care of business tonight.  It's true that Denver showed its mettle by coming back from large deficits twice in the last two games.  Still, NBA teams are a dreadful 26-46 ATS off back to back upset wins, if they were an underdog of 8+ points in those two victories.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS off a straight-up loss, if priced between -4 and -8 points.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Denver Nuggets/Los Angeles Clippers game.  This will be the Nuggets' fourth straight "Game 7" dating back to last year's playoffs.  In 2019, the Nuggets played Game 7s vs. the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers.  This season, Denver downed Utah in a Game 7 earlier this month, and now it will play another decisive game tonight.  Each of Denver's other Game 7s easily went 'under' the total -- and by very large margins.  Its game vs. San Antonio sailed under by 31.5 points; the Portland game went under by 15; and the Game 7 win over Utah went under by 59.5 points.  These two teams have gone under 4-0-2 in the last six meetings, and 21-9-3 under in the last 33 meetings.  Finally, the 'under' falls into 87-47 and 63-33 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres.  Tony Gonsolin was a 9th round pick of the Dodgers in the 2016 Amateur draft so you wouldn't think given the depth on this team that he would make much of an impact four years later.  But here we are and Gonsolin is now a 26-year-old second-year rookie who looks like he could be a fixture in this rotation for the foreseeable future.  After posting a solid 4-2 record and 2.93 ERA in his time split between starting and relieving in 2019, Gonsolin now looks like a serious breakout candidate for a club that has some of the deepest pitching in the Majors.  In six appearances this season (five starts) Gonsolin is 0-1 but he has posted a 1.57 ERA and 0.84 WHIP with 28 strikeouts and six walks in 28 2/3 innings coming into tonight.  The Padres are having a great season to be sure, but they are still 5-14 in their last 19 games as a home underdog.  The Dodgers are 7-2 in the last nine meetings in San Diego.  Take Los Angeles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders.  Before the season, we tabbed Tampa Bay as our Futures pick to win the Stanley Cup (at 7-1 odds).  And it was one of my two favorite Futures picks over the last 20 years (the other was my pick on Virginia in College Basketball at 22-1 odds, which won in 2019).  After a dominating 4-1 victory in Game 4, the Tampa Bay Lightning are one win away from their first Stanley Cup Finals in five years.  It seems as if there's little the Islanders can do at this point to stop the Bolts, especially considering that no matter how well goalie Semyon Varlamov plays, Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy is just that much better.  Simply put, Vasilevskiy is the best net-minder in the world right now and it's really not close.  Not that they needed any more help, but the Lightning got the services of Brayden Point back in Game 4.  However they used him somewhat sparingly and it would show the Isles how confident they are if they didn't even put their talented forward on the ice tonight in an effort to ensure that he's 100% healthy for the Cup Finals.  Tampa feeds off of dominant victories like the one it had in Game 4.  The Bolts are 47-16 (+21 games on the moneyline) in their last 63 games after allowing one goal or less in their previous game.  And they're also not prone to letdowns, as they're 119-64 (+14 games on the moneyline) off a win.  And they're 11-4 when leading in a Playoff series.  Take Tampa Bay.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Tennessee.  It's tough to make money going against the Broncos at home when they're an underdog, or a short favorite.  Indeed, since 1981, Denver's gone 50-22 ATS at home when not favored by more than 2 points.  Even better:  Denver's 28-11 ATS its last 37 home openers when not favored by double-digits, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog!  The Broncos have also dominated the Titans, with a record of 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Drew Lock & Co. to upset the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Dallas Stars.  If they Knights are going to get back to the Stanley Cup Finals for the second time in three seasons, then they're going to have to do it by way of a three-game win streak.  But despite being down 3-1 to the Stars in this series, there is some good news.  For one thing, all three of their losses have been by a single goal while in their lone victory, the Knights won 3-0.  Second, they have matched or bested the Stars in shots on goal in all four of the games played and in Game 4, Vegas out-shot Dallas by 13 (33-20).  They just have to find a way to get the better of Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin who has been their MVP in the playoffs.  Add C/LW Roope Hintz to the Stars' list of walking wounded as he left Game 4 with an undisclosed injury and likely won't be available tonight.  That's the second key Dallas Forward to go down with an injury in this series.  The Knights are 8-1 (+8 games on the moneyline) in their last nine after losing two straight by one goal.  Take Vegas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Over the years, Pittsburgh has significantly underperformed as road favorites of -2 or more points vs. non-division foes.  Since 1980, they've covered just 24 of 76 games. Additionally, dating back to 1983, home underdogs of +5 or more points have cashed 59% in September if it was Week 1, or they were not off a straight-up loss.  Yesterday, we saw the two big home underdogs (Jacksonville, Washington) pull off major upsets.  And I look for another upset by the Giants on Monday Night Football this evening.  Take the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders.  The Isles finally put together 60 minutes of solid, physical hockey, resulting in their first win of this series, 5-3, on Friday night.  A loss in Game 3 would have all but doomed New York in its quest for its first Stanley Cup Finals appearance since 1984.  The Isles still have quite a hill to climb (more like a mountain) as Tampa goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had an off night in Game 3, and the chances of him having another in succession are small.  The Bolts could get a huge lift this afternoon from the possible return of Brayden Point.  The dynamic young center missed Game 3 after having to leave Game 2 with an injury but he's been skating with the team.  Even without him, Tampa was in the game almost the entire time and easily could have won if the puck had bounced its way in the third period.  The Bolts are 12-2 (+9 games on the moneyline) in their last 14 after losing their previous game by two or more goals (39-12, +22 games, in their last 51).  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Minnesota Twins.  When MLB teams draft 18-year-old high school pitchers, those players usually end up either on another team by the time they reach the Majors, or they simply never get there.  But in the case of RHP Triston McKenzie, patience may be paying off -- and in a big way.  Cleveland made McKenzie its first-round pick in the 2015 Amateur Draft and now, five years later, he has finally made his MLB debut.  With the young pitchers they've had come up recently, the Indians were able to take their time with McKenzie and that may prove to be valuable in the long run.  So far, McKenzie has been dazzling, posting a 2-0 record with a 2.57 ERA in four starts covering 21 innings and he has a superb 5.20 K:BB ratio (26 Ks vs. six walks).  This will be his first start vs. the Twins and it's safe to say they will represent the most potent offense he's seen.  But he should be up to the task.  Cleveland is 11-3 in its last 14 road games vs. RH starters.  Take the Tribe.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, in EARLY action on this Sunday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Denver.  The #3-seeded Nuggets upset Los Angeles in Game 5 to force this sixth game.  But it's still an uphill climb for Denver, as it trails 3-games-to-2 in the series.  We'll go against Denver this afternoon, as #3-seeded Playoff teams are a dismal 35-57-3 ATS off an upset playoff win.  And the Clippers are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS their last 11 away from home, if they lost their previous game, and are favored by 4 (or more) points.  Lay it!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Seattle Seahawks.  These two teams met last season here in Atlanta, and the Seahawks came away with a 27-20 victory.  But Atlanta was ravaged with injuries for that game, and was actually installed as a 7.5-point home underdog.  The two teams are much more even in talent for this game, and I have 83-49, 66-35 and 86-53 ATS systems on the Falcons.  Moreover, the Seahawks have always done great in their home opener, and extremely poorly in their road opener.  Dating back to 1999, the Seahawks have covered just 4 of 21 road openers.  Meanwhile, they're 13-4 ATS their last 17 home openers.  Similarly, the Falcons are a fantastic 17-4 ATS their last 21 home openers, but 4-12 ATS their last 16 road openers.  I expect those two trends to stay true to form this afternoon.  Additionally, over the last 16 seasons, in Week 1, non-division home teams have cashed 63% when playing with revenge from a home loss to a non-division foe the previous season.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Green Bay.  Last year, both of these teams made the playoffs, but the Packers defeated Minnesota in both regular season meetings.  I love Minnesota to avenge those defeats, as they fall into a division double-revenge system of mine which is 23-6 ATS since 1987, including a perfect 15-0 ATS when priced from -2 to -7 points!  Even better:  the Packers are 1-7 straight-up, and 1-6-1 ATS when getting 2+ points from a division rival it defeated twice the previous season.  Finally, the Vikings are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS their last five home openers, while the Packers are a poor 4-7 ATS their last 11 road openers.  Lay the points with Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Coastal Carolina.  Last season, the Chanticleers went into Lawrence, and upset the Jayhawks, 12-7, as a 7-point underdog.  We'll lay the points with Kansas in this rematch, as Big 12 Conference teams have cashed 73% over the last 20 years at home when playing with revenge vs. non-conference foes.  Even better:  Kansas is an awesome 33-6 SU and 25-14 ATS when favored by 3 or more points, including 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Dallas Stars.  The Knights played probably their best game on Wednesday, but came up on the short end of a 3-2 overtime final, falling behind 2-1 in the series.  Their 40 shots on goal was the most by either team in this series and the 23 they allowed to the Stars was the lowest such number in the three games as well.  The key for Vegas tonight therefore is to not panic and to just keep doing what its been doing.  There's no doubt the Knights have really benefited in the last two games from the return of enforcing right winger Ryan Reaves, who missed the first game with a suspension carried over from the Colorado series.  The only player that's going to miss tonight for Vegas is forward Tomas Nosek while the Stars have several players (six at last count) who will be unavailable due to various ailments.  The Knights are 26-14 in their last 40 games when revenging a loss to an opponent, while Dallas has won just four of 13 off an upset victory.  Take Vegas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Houston Astros.  The Dodgers had a rare Friday off last night and now begin a two-game series against the team that beat them in the World Series three years ago.  But this is a better team than that one (or the one that lost the series again the following season).  And, in fact, it just might be the best Dodger team in a very long time (which could bode well for us, as the Dodgers were our Futures pick to win the World Series at 4-1 odds).  No National League club has finished the season with a winning percentage over .700 since 1909, but L.A. has a chance to do it (although this accomplishment in 2020's shortened season would have an asterisk associated with it).  LHP Julio Urias has successfully made the transition from starter-reliever to full-time rotation member.  In eight starts, the 24 year-old is 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA and almost a strikeout per inning.  Urias has never faced the Astros before, including the 2017 World Series as he was not on that roster.  But he loves pitching here at home where he has a 7-3 record and a 3.21 ERA in just under 121 innings.  And the Dodgers are 13-4 (+7 games on the moneyline) behind Urias at home, when priced from -125 to -175.  Finally, Houston is 3-14 in its last 17 road games.  Take L.A.  As always, good luck...Al Mcmordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Louisville.  These two Bluegrass State rivals met in Nashville last season, and the Cardinals came out on top, 38-21, as a 10.5-point favorite.  That was the 11th straight time Louisville has defeated Western Kentucky, dating back to 1982.  So, there's nothing the Hilltoppers' coach, Tyson Helton, will want more than to end that losing streak tonight.  Both of these teams had rebirths last season under 1st-year coaches.  Helton led the Hilltoppers to a 9-4 record, following a 3-9 campaign in 2018.  And Scott Satterfield guided Louisville to an 8-5 record after the Cards went 2-10 in 2018.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is to play on certain revenge-minded teams, and the Hilltoppers fall into several of my better revenge angles, with records of 129-72, 22-6, 72-31, 58-22 and 80-37 ATS.  The Cardinals have been installed as a double-digit favorite, but they're a wallet-busting 5-15 ATS their last 20 as a home favorite of more than 10 points.  And they're 3-14 ATS their last 17 as a home favorite, priced from -6 to -13.5, vs. non-conference foes.  Grab the points with Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane minus the points over South Alabama.  Last week, the Jaguars went into Hattiesburg, and upset Southern Miss, 32-21, as a 12-point underdog.  Prior to that win, the Jaguars had not won away from home in 15 games.  South Alabama will be back home for this game, but I don't believe a 2nd straight upset is in the offing.  Indeed, the Jaguars fall into two negative "letdown" systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins that have records of 106-181 and 67-113 ATS since 1980.  The Jaguars are an awful 35.7% ATS at home off a straight-up win, while Tulane has cashed 75% as a favorite vs. foes off upset wins.  And the Green Wave's coach, Willie Fritz, has gone 28-13 ATS as a favorite in his career, whether here at Tulane (since 2016), or at Georgia Southern before that (2014-15).  Take the Green Wave to blow out South Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals.  After scoring 36 runs over their two previous games, the Braves "only" scored 7 runs last night, but lost 8-7 in 12 innings to the Nationals.  Tonight, we'll take the Braves to bounce back behind rookie RHP Ian Anderson, who is 2-0 this season, with a 2.40 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.  Washington will counter with southpaw Patrick Corbin, who is having a down season, with a 2-4 record, and 4.34 ERA.  Washington has now dropped Corbin's last five starts, and is also 2-7 his last nine starts as an underdog.  The Braves are outscoring their opponents by 1.15 runs per game this season.  And that bodes well for them this evening, as Washington is a poor 10-23 at home vs. foes that outscore their opponents by 1+ runs per game.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Indians.  This is a great matchup tonight between the Twins' Kenta Maeda, and Cleveland's undefeated (7-0) Shane Bieber.  The two teams are separated by just a half-game in the standings, as Cleveland (26-18) has one less win than does Minnesota (27-18), so this is a critical series for Playoffs seeding purposes (both should eventually make the expanded Playoffs).  We'll take the homestanding Twins, as Maeda's home ERA is an impressive 1.80, with a microscopic 0.40 ERA.  The Twins have won all of his home starts this season, including a 3-0 shutout of these Indians on August 1.  And Maeda also was victorious in his lone start at Cleveland (August 24) when he held the Indians to just one run over eight innings, and struck out 12 batters.  Cleveland's a poor 29-46 (minus 18 games on the moneyline) on the road vs. American League starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.40 (or better), and was no-hit for 7 2-3 innings last night by rookie Brady Singer.  Take Minnesota.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders.  You can never count a team out after just two games of a best-of-seven series, but if ever there was a game that seemed to take all of the wind out of a competitor's sails, it was Game 2 of this series.  And the Islanders really have no one to blame but themselves.  They out-shot the Lightning in the game, and failed to capitalize on plenty of opportunities (including a 5-on-3 for about 30 seconds in the third period).  It looked like the game was heading to OT when Tampa scored the game-winner with just 10 seconds left in regulation.  The Bolts did lose Brayden Point to a hip injury during the game, so the speedy winger may not be available tonight.  But it likely won't matter as this just seems to be a team which takes full advantage of its opportunities regardless of who is out on the ice.  Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy was once again superb for Tampa, stopping all but one of the 28 shots he faced.  Tampa is 16-3 in its last 19 after allowing one goal or less, and is 15-2 after winning its previous four games.  Take the Lightning.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox.  Two seasons removed from his Cy Young campaign and it appears that Blake Snell is back to being close to what he was in 2018.  2019 was for the most part an injured and lost season for the 27 year-old LH ace, but so far this season, Snell has shown some of the form that won him 21 games with a league-leading 1.89 ERA two seasons ago.  In eight starts, Snell is 3-1 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.75 K:BB ratio in just under 34 innings.  That 3.75 ratio is actually better than the one he put up in his Cy Young campaign and the best so far in his five MLB seasons.  The good news for him tonight is that Snell has more victories (six) against the Red Sox than he has vs. any other team in the league.  In 11 games vs. Boston (all starts), Snell is 6-3 with a 2.83 ERA in just over 57 innings.  And southpaws have been posing quite a problem for Boston lately as the Sox are 4-13 (-9 games on the moneyline) in their last 17 games vs. LH starters.  Take Tampa.

At 5:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins.  After Aaron Nola won 17 games and finished 3rd in the Cy Young balloting for the Phillies in 2018, many people expected an even bigger season the following year.  But that didn't happen and 2019 was a bit of a regression for the then-26-year-old RH ace.  But so far, 2020 has seen a similar performance to the one that Nola put up two seasons ago.  In eight starts, Nola is 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 5.15 K:BB ratio (67 strikeouts vs. 13 walks).  Those last two numbers are the best of Nola's career to this point.  The Marlins will go with first-year southpaw Trevor Rogers (1-0; 3.00 ERA in three starts).  The Phillies are 5-1 in their last six games vs. lefthanded starters.  Meanwhile the Marlins are 2-6 in their last eight home games vs. teams with a winning record.  Finally, the Phillies are 12-2 (+9 games on the moneyline) in their last 14 as a favorite of -125 to -175.  Take Philadelphia.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Houston.  Last January, these two teams met in the quarterfinals, and we had a play on Kansas City minus 8.5 points, and also had our NFL Total of the Year on the over 51.  The Texans jumped out to a 24-0 lead, but then collapsed, and lost 51-31.  One of the things I highlighted last season in my breakdown of that Playoff game was that Houston was the only team -- of the 12 that qualified for the post-season -- which had a negative scoring differential.  And they also had the 2nd-worst defense of any Playoff team, as they gave up 24.06 ppg in the regular season.  Yes, it's a new season, so Houston's defensive numbers don't carry over to this year.  Still, it's worth noting that the Chiefs have dominated teams that allow 23.66 points or more, as they're 32-8 SU and 26-13-1 ATS their last 40.  Some may look for a Super Bowl hangover in Week 1, but that theory has never actually been validated by the data.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs are on a 16-3 SU and 13-4-2 ATS run in Week 1 since 2001.  Kansas City also falls into 11-0, 47-14, 82-49 and 65-28 ATS systems of mine.  And it ended last season on an 8-0-1 ATS run.  I won't step in front of this freight train at home, even with most of the seats empty.  Lay the points with the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds.  In his last start, the Reds' RHP, Sonny Gray, didn't make it out of the first inning, as he gave up 6 runs, 5 hits, 3 walks, in just two-thirds of an inning.   The Reds are a poor 13-20 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) vs. right-handed starters this season (compared to 5-4 vs. lefties).  And they're 74-110 (minus 20 games on the moneyline) on the road.  Take the Cubs as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.