Sports Picks & Predictions

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the St Louis Blues.  Last night, the Wild suffered one of their worst defeats in the history of the franchise when they lost, 9-1, to St. Louis.  But off that huge embarrassing loss, we'll take Minnesota to bounce back on Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, the Wild generally do just that, as they're 32-22 after allowing 6+ goals in their previous game, and 20-8 their last 28 (+13 games on the moneyline) off a loss by more than 4 goals.  And they're 10-2 when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 3 goals.  Take the Wild over St. Louis.  Good luck, as always.....Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics.  Nobody knew how the Astros would perform this season, being that they will face hostile fans at virtually every road venue since they were caught in a cheating scandal.  But so far, this Houston team seems to have used the adversity to its advantage, getting off to a 6-2 start.  And while the road fans may not be very friendly to them, the 'Stros will be greeted with nothing but love here at Minute Maid Park this season.  RH Jose Urquidy didn't start pitching for the 'Stros until 2019 so he has been somewhat immune to the controversy and that's probably fine with him.  More importantly, the 24-year-old is a very talented player with a bright future.  After a very solid rookie season, Urquidy landed a full-time rotation spot in the shortened 2020 season and responded with a 2.73 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five starts covering just under 30 innings.  The A's may have taken game one of this series last night, but they are still 1-6 in the last seven meetings with Houston.  Take the Astros.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Columbus Blue Jackets.  If you're a Lightning fan, you may be a bit concerned over the team's recent struggles, but it's certainly no reason to panic.  After all, this is a club that usually saves its major problems for the playoffs -- last season notwithstanding.  The fact that Tampa has lost five of its last seven games may not look that good on the surface, but there are plenty of reasons to think it will be the conference favorite heading into the post-season, which begins in a little more than a month.  First, there is the fact that this is a very healthy team going into the final month of the season.  And, second, despite their stumbles of late, the Bolts still feature the top net-minder in the game in veteran Russian Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is sporting the best numbers of his career (2.00 GAA; .931 Sv Pct).  This is a revenge situation for the Bolts and they are 8-2 in their last 10 revenging a loss as a favorite; 26-9 off a road loss; and 31-8 (+18 games on the moneyline) in their last 39 after a loss by two or more goals.  Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets are a wallet-busting 13-21 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) off a home win, in which they scored more than three goals.  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies and Hawks both played last night.  Memphis went into Miami, and upset the Heat, 124-112, for its 3rd straight win (and 5th straight cover).  Meanwhile, Atlanta defeated New Orleans here, at home, 123-107, for its fourth straight win and cover.  We'll go against Memphis tonight, as this will be its 3rd road game in four nights.  And NBA teams that were playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights, have covered just 37% over the past 31 seasons if they were off two wins, and matched up against an opponent with a better W/L record, which was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  The Hawks are a super 105-56-4 ATS at home in the regular season vs. foes off 3+ wins, including 31-8-2 ATS its last 41 if its opponent was unrested.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets.  The Phillies got their season off to a 4-0 start, sweeping the Braves in three games and then taking the first of this series on Monday, despite the presence of Jacob deGrom on the mound for New York.  The Phils finally lost on Tuesday, but they come back this afternoon with their ace, RHP Aaron Nola.  The 27-year-old was in mid-season form in his first start last Thursday against Atlanta, throwing 6 2/3 quality innings, allowing two runs on six hits with six Ks and no walks.  And if there's one thing Nola likes, it's starting games against the Mets.  In 16 starts vs. New York, Nola is 8-2 with a 3.30 ERA, including 114 strikeouts and only 75 hits in just over 95 innings.  Throughout his MLB career, Nola has loved pitching in his home park.  In 72 starts here at Citizens Bank, Nola is 33-17 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 455 2/3 innings (vs. 25-23 with a 4.02 ERA in 68 starts elsewhere).  The Mets are also a woeful 6-20 in their last 26 games as a road underdog of at least +125.  Take Philly.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers.  Two seasons ago, Hyun Jin Ryu had a ridiculous season with the L.A. Dodgers, almost winning the NL Cy Young award while leading his team to yet another NL West Division title.  Ryu signed with the Jays as a free agent in December of that year and proceeded to have another outstanding, albeit shortened, campaign in 2020 with Toronto.  Now with an even better team around him, and a full season with which to work, Ryu may be poised to do with the Jays what he did with the Dodgers.  His first start of 2021 was solid (5 1/3 IP; 2 ER; 5 Ks; 0 BBs) and he looks to follow that up this afternoon with another good outing.  Ryu's career record in day games is even more dominant than his overall numbers.  In 39 daytime starts covering 227 innings, the veteran LHP is 21-9 with a 2.66 ERA with 222 strikeouts and only 40 walks.  And Ryu's teams are 10-2 (+8 games on the moneyline) in his last 12 daytime starts.  Take the Blue Jays.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers.  The Twins are my pick this season (at 22-1 odds) to win the World Series, so we will no doubt be on the Twins often this season.  Today, we'll back Minnesota's veteran righty, Kenta Maeda.  In his first start of the season, Maeda was effective, as he gave up just 1 run in 4 1-3 innings vs. the Brewers.  Here, Maeda will be matched-up against the Detroit Tigers' Matt Boyd.  This is a favorable spot for Minnesota, as Detroit is a horrible 25-64 (minus 27 games on the moneyline) as a home underdog, while Maeda's teams are 36-19 (+ 8 games on the moneyline) when priced from -125 to -175.  Take the Twins.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Philadelphia.  These two teams met earlier this season in Philadelphia for a back-to-back set.  And the 76ers won each of those two games, by 8 and 12 points, respectively.  But this game is in Boston, and we'll take the homestanding Celtics to avenge those defeats.  Boston comes into this game off back-to-back blowout wins over Houston (118-102) and Charlotte (116-86), and has gone 5-2 ATS its last seven.  That bodes well for Brad Stevens men tonight, as they're 56-23 ATS off a home blowout win by more than 20 points.  And they're 32-12 ATS at home when not favored by 3+ points, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Philadelphia, meanwhile, has dropped four of its last five to the point spread.  And the 76ers are a poor 8-22-1 ATS as road favorites vs. .500 (or better) foes off a win, including 0-7-1 ATS if their foe was playing with revenge.  Take the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Philadelphia Flyers.  Boston won the first five meetings between these two teams this season, but faltered last night, when it lost, 3-2, in overtime.  But off that loss, we'll take the Bruins to resume their winning ways vs. Philadelphia.  Carter Hart will be in goal tonight for the Flyers, and he's 0-2-2 with a 5.32 GAA and an awful .843 Saves Pct. vs. Boston this season.  The Bruins are a solid 10-5 this season off a loss, and 39-28 when playing with same-season revenge.  Meanwhile, the Flyers are a wallet-busting 209-240 (but minus 76 games on the moneyline) off a road win.  Take the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Rockets are 2-25 straight-up, and 5-22 ATS over their last 27 games.  Their problems started when forward Christian Wood sustained an injury in the February 4 game at Memphis, and the Rockets lost their next 20 games.  But Wood returned to action on March 17.  And, then, over the next week, Houston made roster moves to bring in Kelly Olynyk, Avery Bradley, D.J. Augustin, and D.J. Wilson.  And it is now playing better basketball, as it's 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS its last seven, and has "only" been outscored by an average of 4.42 ppg over this stretch.  Tonight, Houston has been installed as a huge home underdog against the Western conference's #2 seed, the Phoenix Suns, who are on a 5-game winning streak.  This is a letdown spot, as the Suns blew out Oklahoma City by 37 points on Friday, and have games against the two teams (Jazz, Clippers) that sit above and below them in the standings, on Wednesday and Thursday.  We'll take Houston tonight, as double-digit home underdogs, with a win percentage less than .285, off a straight-up loss, have gone 140-73 ATS vs. .630 (or better) foes that are off a straight-up win.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Atlanta.  The Warriors were blasted, 130-77, by the Toronto Raptors on Friday.  But off that loss, we'll take Golden State to rebound this evening against the Hawks.  The good news for Steve Kerr's troops is that superstar Steph Curry will be back on the court tonight.  Curry has missed six of the Warriors' last eight games, due to a tailbone contusion, but was upgraded to 'probable' on Saturday afternoon.  As faithful followers know, I love to play on teams off big losses.  And they don't get much worse than 53 points.  Indeed, NBA favorites (or PK) off losses by more than 40 points have cashed 68.1% over the last 31 seasons!  That bodes well for Golden State on Sunday night.  As does the fact that the Warriors will be playing this game with revenge from a 124-108 loss earlier this season in San Francisco.  And Golden State is a super 51-25 ATS on the road when playing with revenge.  Meanwhile, the Hawks have covered just 34 of 95 as underdogs against rested, revenge-minded foes that they beat by more than 10 points earlier in the season (and just 14 of 55 if their opponent was off a SU/ATS loss).  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Last night, the Kings were blown out here, at home, by the injury riddled Los Angeles Lakers.  Los Angeles played without LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and newly-signed Andre Drummond, which made Sacramento a 5-point home favorite.  No matter.  The Lakers won without their stars, 115-94.  Perhaps Sacramento thought it was going to have it easy, and lost focus?  But, as luck would have it, tonight they will face Milwaukee without MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.  However, with last night's result fresh in the minds of the Kings, I fully expect them to NOT take the Bucks lightly tonight.  Instead, I look for Sacramento to be focused, with an eye toward redeeming itself off its 21-point home loss last night.  The Bucks come into this game off back to back road wins.  But, since 1999, Milwaukee's covered just 38% on the road off back to back road wins.  Take Sacramento.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Orlando.  Will this finally be the year that Utah wins an NBA title?  The Jazz certainly are playing like it.  They're 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency; 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency; and #1 (by a mile) in Net adjusted efficiency.  Indeed, the only other teams that rank among the top 10 in both adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency are the Suns and Bucks.  But they're 3.75 and 4.24 points, respectively, behind Utah in Net adjusted efficiency.  Not surprisingly, the Jazz are also doing great "in Vegas," as they're #2 in the NBA with a .625 ATS win percentage (30-18 ATS), trailing only the Phoenix Suns (32-16 ATS).  Utah did, however, fail to cover the point spread in each of its two previous games.  But in the 2nd half of the NBA season (Game 42 forward), NBA teams with a .625 (or better) ATS win percentage, off back to back ATS losses, have rebounded to cover the spread 72.4% over the last 31 years when they were playing at home.  Even better:  Utah's 17-4 ATS its last 21 at home; 8-2 ATS its last 10 at home when playing without rest; and 151-109 ATS at home off back to back ATS losses.  Lay the points with the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Minnesota Wild.  There's not much separating the Knights, Wild and Avalanche right now in the Honda West Division.  There's only a four points difference in the standings among those three, and the 4th place team is eight points behind.  The fact that these three are in a dogfight with each other was borne out on Thursday night.  The Wild and Knights played to a 3-2 shootout final won by Minnesota.  And the shots-on-goal in that game were 37 apiece.  But there are several reasons to think that the Knights will come through tonight in the rematch.  First, there's the fact that the Knights are 7-3 in their last 10 coming off a home loss to a division rival and 4-1 in their last five off of a close loss (one goal or less) to a division rival.  Second is the fact that despite Thursday's result, the home team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings of these two.  Finally, Vegas is 8-3 (+7 games on the moneyline) in its last 11 games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent.  Take the Knights.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Gonzaga.  I think it's safe to say that we should throw out UCLA's last four Pac-12 games (all losses) to end its conference season.  And that's because Mick Cronin's men have been a completely different animal in this tourney.  They've defeated Michigan State (86-80), BYU (73-62), Abilene Christian (67-47), Alabama (88-78) and Michigan (51-49).  But look more closely at their wins over Michigan State and Alabama, and you'll notice that both went into overtime.  In regulation, UCLA held Michigan State to 77 and Alabama to 65.  Thus, in this tournament, the Bruins have given up an average of 60 points per game in regulation.  That's impressive, in and of itself.  But then consider the teams that UCLA has faced.  Their opponents included Michigan, which ranks 9th in Ken Pomeroy's offensive efficiency rankings; BYU, which ranks 20th; and Alabama, which ranks 29th.  Yet through regulation time, UCLA held Michigan to its lowest offensive output of the season, BYU and Abilene Christian to their 2nd-lowest, and Alabama to its 5th-lowest.  Certainly, Gonzaga is another animal, altogether.  The Bulldogs rank #1 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and have yet to lose a game.  Indeed, Gonzaga has only played one team which came within single-digits (West Virginia, 87-82).  Still, I believe the points will be valuable today.  And, for technical support, consider that NCAA Tourney favorites of more than 10 points, off back to back double-digit SU/ATS wins, are a horrible 8-32 ATS against foes seeded #15 (or better).  Finally, in the NCAA's Final Four, favorites of more than eight points have gone 1-7 ATS since 1991, with only North Carolina (-10, 83-66) covering against Syracuse in 2016.  Take the points with the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over the Baylor Bears.  The Cougars were an ATM Machine in Vegas during the regular season, as they went 18-8 ATS (.692 ATS pct.), and covered the point spread by an average of 5.32 ppg.  Those two marks ranked #8 and #4 of the 68 teams that qualified for the NCAA tournament (in contrast, Baylor ranked #25 and #35 in those metrics).  It took a last-second three-point shot by Oregon State to hand the Cougars a point spread defeat in their previous game.  But Houston is 8-0 ATS its last eight, and 28-8 ATS its last 36 off a point spread defeat!  The Cougars are also 13-2 ATS their last 15 as an underdog of less than 7 points, while Baylor is a wallet-busting 10-19 ATS vs. .866 (or better) teams off an ATS loss.  Finally, Houston gives up just 57.5 points per game, and ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency in Ken Pomeroy's NCAA basketball ratings (in contrast, Baylor ranks 28th).  And the Cougars also prefer to play at a much slower pace than Baylor, as Houston's games average just 134.1 ppg -- much less than the Bears' 148.5 ppg.  That bodes well for the underdog, as in the semi-final round of the NCAA Tourney, teams with defenses that give up 63 or less points have covered 73.6% if they weren't favored by 4+ points!  Moreover, underdogs seeded #5 (or better), that average 134.5 (or less) points per game, have covered 61.9%, including 8-2 ATS in the semi-final round.  We'll take the points with the defensive-minded underdog in this game.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Coyotes over the Anaheim Ducks.  In their last game, the Coyotes were embarrassed by Colorado as the Avalanche scored 9 goals on 38 shots.  That 9-3 defeat was Arizona's worst loss this season, and the most goals it has given up since it lost to Detroit, 9-2, on Oct. 11, 2006.  But off that defeat, we'll take the Coyotes tonight, as they're 5-0 this season after giving up 5+ goals.  And looking out further finds Arizona 31-23 (+14 games on the moneyline) after allowing 4+ goals.  After facing the Avalanche, there's no doubt the Coyotes will be happy to see the Ducks tonight.  And Anaheim has been out-shot 122-63 over its last three games.  That doesn't bode well for the Ducks tonight, as they're 1-6 after three straight games of 24 (or less) shots on goal, and 3-8 after being out-shot by 8+ shots in three straight games.  Even worse:  Anaheim lost the previous meeting with Arizona, 5-1.  And the Ducks are 27-48 their last 75 when playing with revenge, including 0-9 this season when playing with revenge from a loss by 2+ goals.  Take the Coyotes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Nashville Predators.  The defending Western conference champion Stars are on a 3-game losing streak after dropping a 3-2 decision in overtime on Tuesday to these Predators.  Dallas has been horrid this season when games go past regulation (2-10), so if it fails to make the playoffs, it can point to that as the reason why.  We'll take Dallas tonight, as it's 81-64 (+15 games on the moneyline) off 3+ losses, while Nashville is a dreadful 21-33 (minus 24 games on the moneyline) off back-to-back wins.  Even better:  Dallas is 101-59 (+43 games on the moneyline) off a division road loss.  Take the Stars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Cleveland.  The Sixers will once again play without center Joel Embiid tonight.  But Cleveland's injury problems are even worse.  We'll lay the points with Philly tonight, as it's playing with double-revenge from two losses to Cleveland earlier this season, including a 112-109 defeat as an 11.5-point favorite in the last meeting.  The good news for Philadelphia in this game is that winning NBA teams are 93-65 ATS when laying more than 6 points against a losing team, if our winning team was playing with double revenge.  Even better:  if our revenger was favored by 8+ points in the previous meeting, then our 93-65 stat zooms to 28-10 ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven.  It's true that Cleveland does come into this game off an embarrassing 39-point loss at Utah.  But the Cavaliers are 0-11 ATS their last 11, and 74-125-4 ATS their last 203 off a 17-point (or worse) defeat.  Take Philadelphia minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over Columbus.  The defending Stanley Cup champions are on a rare 3-game losing streak after dropping a 3-1 decision to these Blue Jackets on Tuesday.  I look for the Lightning to bounce back tonight, as they're 48-19 (+17 games on the moneyline) off a loss.  And Tampa's an eye-popping 25-3 (+20 games on the moneyline) after not scoring 2+ goals in its previous game!  Meanwhile, Columbus is a poor 4-9 (minus 5 games on the moneyline) off a win, and 23-36 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) when playing its 3rd road game in five days.  Take the Lightning.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Washington Capitals.  New York returns home today after losing back-to-back games at Pittsburgh on Saturday and Monday.  And the Isles also play with revenge from a 3-1 loss at Washington on March 16.  The good news for New York tonight is that it's 24-16 (+7 games on the moneyline) off back to back losses.  And it's 26-13 (+14 games on the moneyline) when playing with revenge from a game where it failed to score 2+ goals.  Take the Islanders.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the San Jose Sharks.  The Wild come into this game off a 4-3 loss to San Jose, and have 4 games against the Avalanche and Golden Knights on deck, so this game is important for Minnesota to win, as it tries to jockey for playoff positioning in the rugged West division.  The Sharks are 3-10 off a win this season, and 33-41 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) after scoring more than 3 goals, while the Wild are 8-2 when playing with revenge from a loss to its opponent earlier in the season.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento.  These two teams met on Monday, here in the Alamo City. And the Kings blew out the Spurs, 132-115.  We'll lay the points with the Spurs in this rematch, as the Spurs are 29-12 ATS in the regular season at home, when playing with revenge.  Even better:  the Spurs are 64-27 ATS off a loss by 15+ points, if they weren't an underdog of more than 2 points in their current game, and their opponent wasn't off a SU/ATS loss.  And, finally, when the Spurs have played an opponent who the Spurs lost to in their previous game, they've gone 48-24-3 ATS if they were favored (or PK'em) in that next game.  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Sabres over the Philadelphia Flyers.  The Sabres have tied the all-time NHL record for the most consecutive losses at 18 and tonight they "go for" the outright record.  But not so fast.  You have to feel that if they're going to break out of their losing ways, it's going to be against the Flyers.  For one thing, it almost happened on Monday, as the Sabres raced to a 3-0 lead by the end of the second period.  But the Flyers came back in the final 20 minutes to tie it and then they won it OT, thus extending the Sabres' misery.  But that was the second straight Flyers-Sabres contest that had gone into overtime, and you just feel that Philly is the shakiest team -- defensively anyway -- in the division right now.  So we're counting on tonight being the night that the Sabres put one up in the win column (but don't count on a win streak after that).  Philly's defense and goaltending has been awful of late.  In their last 12 games, the Flyers have allowed a total of 54 goals, or a GAA of 4.50.  Take the Sabres.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Winnipeg Jets.  These two teams met earlier this month in Toronto, and the Jets took 2 of 3, including the most recent meeting by a 5-2 score.  We'll take Toronto to avenge that defeat, as it's 52-31 when playing with revenge, including 12-2 this season.  Meanwhile, the Jets come into tonight off a 5-2 win at Calgary.  But the Jets are a horrible 69-93 (minus 23 games on the moneyline) off a road win, and 2-9 at home after scoring more than 4 goals in their previous game.  Take Toronto.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans + the points over Gonzaga.  This season, I've largely avoided playing on or against Gonzaga.  I only played on them once -- and won when they blew out Norfolk State in the opening round of this Tournament.  And I also only played against them once this season (and lost), as I didn't think there were many teams that had the right mix of players to compete with Gonzaga.  But USC is one of the teams that CAN compete with the Bulldogs.  So, we'll grab the points with the Trojans tonight.  For technical support, consider that, over the last 22 seasons, in the ELITE EIGHT round of the tournament, .700 (or better) teams seeded #4 (or worse) are a perfect 16-0-1 ATS vs. .800 (or better) opponents!  And, even better, USC comes into this game off 3 dominant wins over Drake (72-56), Kansas (85-51) and Oregon (82-68).  And their last two games were quite impressive, as they covered the point spread in each by double digits (Kansas +32.5; Oregon +11.5).  And that leads us to our second angle, which is 20-0-1 ATS, which plays on underdogs off 2 Tourney wins, in which they covered the spread by 28+ points combined, provided their opponent was off an ATS win, but didn't also cover its two previous games by 28+ points combined.  Take USC + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Washington.  The Wizards pulled off an upset, 132-124, last night, as a 7-point home underdog vs. Indiana.  Unfortunately, unrested teams off an upset home win, in which they scored 130+ points, have covered just 28% over the past 31 seasons.  That doesn't bode well for Washington tonight.  Nor does the fact that Charlotte blew it out by a 119-97 score when these two Southeast division rivals met last month.  And Washington is a poor 16-36 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat when it wasn't getting 4+ points in the current game.  Take Charlotte.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the New Jersey Devils.  Boston was shut out, 1-0, by New Jersey on Sunday.  So, the Bruins will want to avenge that defeat tonight.  In Sunday's loss, Boston threw 40 shots at Mackenzie Blackwood, but none got by the goalie.  Interestingly, the last three times Boston had 40+ shots on goal, they lost all three games, and scored 0, 1 and 0 goals in those games!  Still, if a team gets 40+ shots on goal, you will generally take your chances with the result.  I look for Boston to bounce back on Tuesday, as the Devils are a horrid 31-49 (minus 35 games on the moneyline) after a road shutout win.  Meanwhile, the Bruins are 21-11 (+6 games on the moneyline) off a shutout loss, and an awesome 51-21 (+18 games on the moneyline) off a strong defensive effort where they didn't allow 2+ goals.  Take Boston tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks + the points over Baylor.  We played on the 'under' in Arkansas' previous game (a 72-70 win over Oral Roberts), which was our Sweet 16 Total of the Year.  That game easily stayed under the total of 156.5, but Arkansas failed to cover the 11.5-point spread.  Baylor did cover the spread in its win over Villanova, but it took a furious rush in the 2nd half for the Bears to surpass the 7.5-point spread.  Off those two results, we'll take the points with the underdog Razorbacks tonight.  Indeed, in the NCAA tournament, it's been very profitable to back teams off ATS losses in the Tourney, if their opponent wasn't off an ATS defeat in its previous game, provided our team wasn't laying more than 1 points.  Dating back 24 years, this angle has cashed 67.2% of the time.  That bodes well for Arkansas tonight.  As does the fact that #1 seeds, off a double-digit win, and ATS win, have covered just 8 of 31 Elite Eight round games.  Take Arkansas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Houston.  The Rockets won for just the 2nd time over their last 24 games when the upset Minnesota, 129-107, on Saturday.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Houston tonight vs. Memphis, as sub-.300 home underdogs have covered just 28% over the last 31 years off an upset road win, if they were matched up against a division opponent off a SU/ATS road loss.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Pittsburgh Penguins.  The Pens come into tonight's game off a 6-3 win over these Islanders.  And that triumph closed the gap between the 2nd Place Isles, and 3rd Place Penguins to a mere two points.  Pittsburgh has now won each of its three previous games (all at home), but will be hard-pressed to extend its win streak to four games tonight.  For technical support, consider that the Pens are a dismal 16-23 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) off three straight home wins, and 70-69 (minus 22 games on the moneyline) off a win by 3+ goals over a division rival.  Meanwhile, New York is 29-17 (+12 games on the moneyline) after giving up 3+ goals in each of its two previous games.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over UCLA.  Last Monday, we played on each of these two teams, and got the $$$ with UCLA vs. Abilene Christian, and Alabama vs. Maryland.  At the start of this tournament, our projected final four was Baylor, Gonzaga, Alabama and West Virginia (with Baylor defeating Gonzaga in the final).  We now have three teams remaining after WVU was knocked out by Syracuse last weekend.  We'll look for Alabama to continue its strong play on this Sunday, as it comes into this Sweet 16 match-up on an 8-game win streak.  In its last game, it scored 96 points, which rated as the highest amount registered by an NCAA Tourney in the 2nd round over the last 10 seasons.  And NCAA Tourney teams are 96-68-2 ATS as a favorite of -6 (or more) points after scoring 88 or more in their previous game.  That bodes well for the Crimson Tide on Sunday.  As does the fact that teams seeded #11 (or worse) have covered just 3 of 16 Tourney games from the Sweet 16 round forward, if they were priced from +2 to +7.5 points.   Finally, UCLA is a wallet-busting 1-10 ATS its last 11 games in the Sweet 16.  Take Alabama to blow out the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Anaheim Ducks.  When you look up the definition of "frustrating loss" you might just get directed to the result of the Blues game against the Anaheim Ducks on Friday.  On the scoreboard, it looks like a three-goal win for the underdogs, but it was really a one-goal affair with some lucky bounces for the winners.  After a scoreless first period, the Ducks got a pair in the second period including a fluky goal in the final minute.  The Blues answered with a third period goal before Anaheim put a pair in an empty net in the final 1:03, resulting in a 4-1 final.  Still, the Blues out-shot the Ducks 34-24 and dominated play over most of the 60 minutes.  Today they have a chance to get on the right side of the score in this rematch.  It could be tough for the Ducks to make it two in a row as they are just 10-28 in their last 38 coming off of a win, and 31-54 (minus 21 games on the moneyline) within the division.  The Blues are 13-7 in their last 20 after three or more consecutive losses, and they're 9-3 after not scoring 3+ goals in any of their previous three games.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Michigan.  Both of these teams come into this game off impressive wins.  Michigan fought off a game LSU team to win, 86-78, as a 4-point favorite, while Florida State blew out Colorado, 71-53, as a 1-point favorite.  The Wolverines are a #1 seed, but they're only favored by a bucket today against the #4-seeded Seminoles.  And this "short line" spells trouble for Juwan Howard's men, as #1 seeds are a poor 32% ATS in the Tourney's Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds since 2000, if they weren't favored by more than 4 points, including 2-10 ATS if their opponent won their game by more than 12 points.  Florida State is 4-1-1 ATS its last 6 as an NCAA Tourney underdog.  And, three years ago, as a #9-seed, it gave then-No. 3-seeded Michigan everything it could handle in a 4-point loss in the Elite 8 round.  I look for FSU to pull the upset today.  Take the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Sunday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  Yesterday we played on both Memphis (over Colorado State) and Mississippi State (over Louisiana Tech), and got the $$$ with each of them to move our mark this NIT season to 3-0-1 (or possibly 4-0).  In this championship game, we'll lay the points with the Tigers, as they fall into two of my better NIT Tourney systems, with records of 58-33, 24-11; and also a general post-season Tourney system which is 161-96-4 ATS since 1990.  Additionally, as I mentioned yesterday, Memphis is (now) 14-2 ATS its last 16 games, and 22-12 its last 34 post-season games.  Meanwhile, Miss State is an awful 7-23 ATS off an upset win, if it wasn't getting more than 5 points in its current game (including 1-11 ATS if it won its previous game by double-digits).  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Winnipeg Jets.  The time for Calgary to get back into the playoff chase is getting shorter by the day.  Yesterday, it lost its 4th straight game, 3-2 to these Jets, and Calgary now sits 4 points behind Montreal (but the Canadiens have played four less games).  With the two #1  goalies (Jacob Markstrom, Connor Hellebuyck) having played last night, the two teams will turn to their #2 goalies for this contest (David Rittich, Laurent Brossoit).  I look for Calgary to get back into the win column today, as it's cashed 63.1 the past three seasons off a 1-goal home defeat.  Meanwhile, Winnipeg is a wallet-busting 14-26 off back-to-back road wins, and 11-28 on the road off 3 wins overall.  Take Calgary tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis.  These two teams met here in Salt Lake City last night, and the Jazz won, 117-114, as a 10-point home favorite, but failed to cover the spread.  But that game was an outlier for this Memphis team, as it had been 0-12 ATS its previous 12 road games when getting more than 4 points.  I look for a reversion to form tonight, and for Utah to blow out Memphis.  The Jazz are 12-1 ATS at home off back to back wins, and they're also 196-142-7 ATS at home vs. unrested foes when priced from -2 to -15 points.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met last night here in the Twin Cities, and Minnesota emerged victorious with a 107-101 victory as a 4.5-point home favorite.  We'll take the Rockets in the rematch, as .400 (or worse) teams have only covered the spread 33% of the time in back to back meetings since 1990, if they won the first meeting.  And Houston's 79-38 ATS as a road underdog off back to back ATS losses, if they also lost their previous game, straight-up.  Take the Rockets.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Houston/Minnesota game.  The Rockets have gone 'under' 28-13 in 2021, including 9-1 'under' in games with O/U lines greater than 227.  And they're also 13-0 'under' their last 13 when priced from +3 to +6 points.  Meanwhile, Minnesota's gone 'under' 13-4 when priced as a home favorite, including 7-0 'under' when laying more than 4 points.  Take the 'under.'

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the game between Arkansas and Oral Roberts.  The Razorbacks have played their last four games 'under' the total, and I look for another relatively-low scoring game on this Saturday.  Indeed, teams that have gone under in a tournament's first two games have continued to go under 64.7% in their 3rd game of that post-season tournament.  And the 'under' also falls into 86-61 and 36-20 post-season Totals systems of mine.  Finally, Arkansas is 25-14 'under' in non-conference games.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  Mississippi State won a thriller in the semi-final round on Thursday, when it hit a 3-pointer to garner a 68-67 victory against Richmond (though it failed to cover the 4.5-point spread).  Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, knocked out fellow Conference USA member Western Kentucky, 72-65, as a 1-point favorite.  These two teams actually met last season, and Louisiana Tech went into Starkville and upset Miss State, 74-67, as a 7.5-point road dog.  But that sets up our play on this Saturday, as Mississippi State falls into 37-20 and 76-32 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Additionally, Mississippi State is an awesome 73-30 ATS when playing with revenge if it is not off a SU/ATS win, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in the post-season.  Finally, Miss State falls into 24-5, 9-1, 129-91, 28-7, and 83-55 ATS post-season systems of mine.  Lay the points with Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Colorado State.  These two teams were both given #1 seeds by the NIT Tournament committee.  The Tigers earned their berth into this semi-final round with a 69-66 triumph over Boise State, while Colorado State dispatched North Carolina State with a 4-point upset win, 65-61, as a 2-point underdog.  Unfortunately for Boise, in the post-season, teams seeded #3 (or better) are a soft 100-138 ATS off an upset win, if installed as an underdog of +1.5 (or more) points.  Memphis also is 13-2 ATS its last 15 games, and 21-12 ATS its last 33 post-season games, while Boise is 4-10 ATS in the post-season vs. non-conference foes.  Take the Tigers minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Toronto.  The Suns pulled a clunker on Wednesday night, as they were upset by the Magic, 112-111, as a 9.5-point road favorite.  But we'll look for Phoenix to rebound tonight, as it's 12-1 ATS its last 13, and 44-13 ATS its last 57, off an upset road loss, including 8-0 ATS vs. an opponent off an upset win.  With Toronto, indeed, off an upset of Denver in its last game, we'll fade the Raptors tonight.  Take Phoenix minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Vegas Golden Knights.  Last season, our preseason pick to win the Stanley Cup was on Tampa Bay, and we cashed the Lightning at 7-1 odds.  This season, our choice was Colorado, also at 7-1 odds.  The Avalanche got off to a slower-than-expected start, but have come on strong lately to get to within 2 points of the Golden Knights for 1st place in the division.  So, this 2-game series here in Denver could catapult the Avs to the top of the standings.  The Avalanche are 7-1 in their last eight games, and have outscored their opponents by 36-13 over those eight games (including a 6-0 mark in regulation).  Colorado did lose the previous meeting this season against Vegas.  But that's not necessarily a bad thing, as they Avalanche are 9-0 this season when playing with revenge.  And over the last 3 seasons, Colorado is 34-18 (+18 games on the moneyline) when playing with revenge from a loss by 2+ goals.  Meanwhile, Vegas does come into this game off a blowout 5-1 win.  But the Golden Knights are a poor 8-11 (minus 10 games on the moneyline) off a win by more than 3 goals.  Take Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Los Angeles.  The Clippers led wire-to-wire last night, and blew out San Antonio, 134-101.  Off that blowout defeat, we'll back San Antonio tonight in the rematch.  For technical support, consider that San Antonio is 29-11 ATS its last 40 at home in the regular season when playing with revenge.  Likewise, the Clippers are an awful 15-38 ATS off a SU/ATS win, when favored by 4+ points against a revenge-minded foe.  And, league-wide, NBA home dogs of +6 (or more) points, that lost by 19+ points the previous day at home, have cashed 61.1% over the past 31 seasons.  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Kings over San Jose.  We played on the Sharks when these teams met two nights ago, and got the $$$$ in a thrilling 2-1 victory which saw San Jose's netminder, Martin Jones (and the post behind him), make some incredible saves late in the game to preserve the win.  Los Angeles peppered Jones with 42 shots, but just were unable to catch a break.  Cal Petersen (92.6% Saves Pct.) was given that game off in favor of the veteran goalie, Jonathan Quick (89.8% Saves Pct.), but Petersen should be back in goal for the Kings tonight.  We'll take the Kings, as San Jose is a poor 2-9 off a win, while L.A. is a solid 36-32 (+16 games on the moneyline) when playing with revenge.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Brooklyn.  This is a huge revenge game for the Jazz, who suffered their worst loss of this season earlier this year against the Nets.  Brooklyn won that game by 34 points.  But tonight's game is a great set-up for the homestanding Jazz.  Brooklyn had to play Portland last night in a game which went down to the wire.  The Nets did win that game (their second straight), but teams off back-to-back wins are a wallet-busting 31-54 ATS when playing without rest on the road against a rested Jazz team, and not getting more than 10 points.  And rested Northwest division teams, with a .600 (or better) record, are 91-54 ATS in the regular season off a win, if they were playing with revenge.  Take Utah to blow out Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Los Angeles.  The Spurs already defeated the Clippers once this season.  And they'll get two more tries at it this week, as this is the first of a 2-game home series vs. ex-Spur Kawhi Leonard's Clippers.  The Spurs come into this game off back to back losses to Milwaukee + Charlotte.  But San Antone is 86-50 ATS at home off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Spurs as a home underdog.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder finished off their four-game road trip with back to back upset wins over the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves.  But those two teams have a combined record of 22-63.  Memphis, on the other hand, is a .500 ball club.  It's true that OKC recently upset Memphis, 128-122, as a 9.5-point home underdog, on March 14.  But the Grizz are an awesome 27-5 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent off a win, when Memphis not getting more than 7 points.   And losing teams are a poor 61-100 ATS as underdogs when playing a revenge-minded team they upset as 9-point (or greater) underdogs in the previous meeting.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Pepperdine.  We succesfully played on the underdog Stetson Hatters not once, but twice, in the first two rounds of this CBI Tournament.  Yesterday's ATS win by Stetson came at the expense of this Coastal Carolina team, though Coastal was able to survive in overtime to win by 5, as a 7.5-point favorite.  And Stetson's ATS success continued a long-term trend in this CBI Tournament which has favored taking the points, as underdogs are now 110-93 ATS, including 55-38 ATS off a point spread defeat.  That bodes well for Coastal Carolina tonight.  As does the fact that Pepperdine is a horrible 34-57-1 ATS as a favorite vs. non-conference foes, while Coastal Carolina is 19-7 ATS as an underdog vs. non-conference foes, if the Chanticleers won their previous game.  Take Coastal Carolina + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets won at Orlando lat night, 110-99.  But off that win, we will fade Nikola Jokic & Co. this evening.  Indeed, Denver is a dreadful 3-19 ATS as a road favorite off a win by more than 8 points.  Meanwhile, Toronto is 95-62 ATS off back to back losses.  I look for Nick Nurse's men to snap their losing streak tonight.  Take Toronto.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Brooklyn.  We played against Portland on Sunday, and got the $$$ when Dallas blew them out by 40 points, 132-92.  We'll take the Trail Blazers to bounce back on Tuesday, as rested home teams have gone 61% ATS off a blowout home loss by 25+ points, if they were matched up against a winning opponent which won its previous game.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Stetson Hatters + the points over Coastal Carolina.  We played on Stetson yesterday as a huge underdog (opened +9.5, closed +6.5) vs. Bowling Green, and the Hatters won outright, 53-52.  We'll come right back with Stetson today as an underdog vs. Coastal Carolina.  The Chanticleers are a poor 6-13 ATS as a favorite priced from -6.5 to -20 points, including 1-6 ATS off a win by more than 5 points, and 0-9 ATS if they didn't have a losing record against the spread.  Likewise, favorites of 6+ points have burned money in the CBI Tournament, including 16-35 ATS their last 51.  Finally, Atlantic Sun Conference teams have gone 49-33 in the post-season vs. non-conference foes, including 34-20 ATS as an underdog of 5+ points, and 16-7 ATS if they covered the spread by 6+ points in their previous game.  Grab the points with the Hatters.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans over Kansas.  Going into this tournament, the Big 10 Conference was the nation's best.  But we're 45 games in, and just Michigan and Maryland remain.  Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue have all been sent packing.  Not surprisingly, the Big 10 has gone a collective 5-8 ATS.  Meanwhile, the Pac-12 conference has been perfect.  And not just on the scoreboard, but also "in Vegas," as the conference from the Left Coast is 7-0 SU/ATS.  UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Colorado and USC have done the Pac-12 proud, although three of the teams are still left to play today.  One is USC, which will take on Big 12-member Kansas tonight (the Big 12 teams will be 5-7 ATS if Oklahoma can't come back on Gonzaga (they're down 17, as of this writing)).  We'll take the Trojans in this game, as they fall into a 69-30 ATS 2nd Round system of mine, which goes against Kansas off its 93-84 win over Eastern Washington.  Additionally, the Jayhawks failed to cover the spread against Eastern Washington, and are just 2-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes this season (and 0-6 ATS when not favored by 20+ points).  Meanwhile, the Trojans are 5-3 ATS vs. non-conference foes, including a perfect 4-0 ATS when priced from +2 to -13 points.  Take USC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Maryland.  The Crimson Tide won the SEC Conference Tournament, and then defeated Iona in the opening round.  They'll now take on the Maryland Terrapins, who upset UConn in its first game.  Unfortunately for the Terrapins, underdogs off upset wins in the first round of the Tournament, priced from +4.5 to +10 points, have covered just 13 of 41 vs. foes that won their conference tournament.   Lay the points with Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over LSU.  The #1-seeded Wolverines enter this game on their first 2-game point spread losing streak of the season.  I like Michigan to bounce back tonight, as #1 seeds off back to back ATS losses have gone 30-3 SU and 22-10-1 ATS.  And Michigan is 8-1 ATS its last 9, and 18-6 ATS its last 24 post-season games off a point spread defeat.  Lay the points with the Wolverines.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays minus the points over Ohio.  The Bobcats shocked the defending National Champion Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday, as they won 62-58, as a 7-point underdog.  And that was Ohio's 4th straight win and cover.  But off that big upset win, we will fade the #13 seed this evening.  Indeed, teams seeded 12th (or worse) have covered just 20% in the 2nd Round of the Tournament when installed as an underdog of 7 or less points, if they were off 2 SU/ATS wins, and their opponent was not.  And Mid-American Conference teams off a SU/ATS win are a soft 9-19 ATS in the Tourneys against non-conference foes not off an ATS win.  Finally, Creighton has covered 86% over the last 31 seasons off back to back ATS losses, if its opponent was off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with the Bluejays today.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Abilene Christian.  The Bruins drew a short straw and was forced to play a "First Four" game in order to qualify for the first round of the tournament.  The Bruins won that game against Michigan State, and then used it as a springboard to upset BYU on Thursday.  I won't step in front of the Bruins today, as teams seeded 5th (or worse) off a Tourney win, have gone 16-0-1 ATS when favored by more than 4 points against a .715 (or better) foe.  Take UCLA.

At 11:30 am, on Monday, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Stetson Hatters + the points over Bowling Green.  The Falcons find themselves installed as a big favorite in this game, even though it comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Miami and Akron.  Unfortunately, Bowling Green has been dreadful when laying points, as its 9-27-3 ATS its last 39, including 0-15-3 ATS off a point spread loss.  We'll grab the points with Stetson, as it also falls into a 33-7 ATS Tourney system of mine.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Dallas lost by 6 points here to the Blazers on Friday.  But the Mavs are 100-50 ATS off a road loss, when playing a non-division foe off a win.  Take Dallas to avenge that defeat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Oregon State.  The Beavers won their fourth straight game as an underdog when they stunned Tennessee, 70-56, on Friday.  Unfortunately, teams off 4+ upset wins have covered just 33% in the NCAA Tournament over the last 31 years, including just 11% in the Tourney's first two rounds.  Moreover, the Beavers are a poor 7-20-1 ATS off 4+ wins.  Take the Cowboys on Sunday night.  Good luck, always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over North Texas.  The #13-seeded Mean Green shocked Purdue, in Overtime, on Friday, while Villanova sent Winthrop packing with a 73-63 win.  That was Winthrop's second straight win, which doesn't bode well for it today, as NCAA teams have cashed just 29% in the tourney's 2nd round off back to back upset wins.  Take the Wildcats minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Oral Roberts.  The Eagles advanced to this round with a huge upset win, in overtime, against Ohio State, as a #15 seed.  But #15 seeds have not fared well in the Tournament when they were getting 16 or less points, as they've covered just nine of 29.  Even worse for ORU tonight is the fact that underdogs, seeded #12 or worse, are a horrid 0-14 SU and 1-12-1 ATS off an overtime victory in the NCAA Tournament.  Lay the points with Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Cleveland.  Toronto finally is getting its full team back on the hardwood.  So, it will have to quickly get back into the win column, if it is to make a run at the post season.  Tonight, it will attempt to snap its 7-game losing streak, and we'll lay the points, as Cleveland is a poor 6-18 ATS off a point spread loss.  Meanwhile, NBA favorites of more than 6 points, have cashed 62% off 6+ losses over the past 31 years.  Take Toronto.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Washington.  The Nets lost a rare ballgame on Friday, as they fell to Orlando, 121-113, as an 11-point road favorite.  But off that loss, we'll lay the points with Brooklyn tonight, as home teams have cashed 79.1% over the last 31 years off an outright loss as a road favorite of more than 10 points, if their opponent was off a win.  With the Wizards, indeed, off a win over Utah, we'll take Brooklyn to blowout Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Houston.  The Cougars have won their last two games by 37 and 31 points, which has caused this line -- according to my numbers -- to be a tad inflated.  And we'll take advantage, as NCAA Tourney teams have gone 0-10 ATS in the 2nd round if they won their two previous games by 50+ points, combined.  Even better:  Rutgers has cashed 68.1% over the last 30 years when getting 5+ points against a non-conference foe off an ATS win.  And Big 10 teams have cashed 60.8% in the Tourney against non-conference foes when getting 8+ points.  Finally, AAC Conference teams have covered just 28% as favorites vs. non-conference foes in the post-season.  Take Rutgers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Arkansas.  The #6-seeded Red Raiders are favored today vs. the #3-seeded Razorbacks.  And, over the last 31 years, when a team seeded #4 (or better) has been an underdog in the Tourney's 2nd round, it's cashed just 18% of the time.  Likewise, when a team seeded #5 (or worse) has been favored in the 2nd round, it's gone 41-15-2 ATS.  Finally, Arkansas is a wallet-busting 117-180 ATS away from home when not favored by more than 3 points.  Take Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Syracuse.  We played on WVU on Friday, and got the $$$ when they covered against Morehead State.  And that moved WVU's record in the NCAA/NIT Tourneys to 35-16-2 ATS its last 53, including 22-9 ATS in the NCAA.  We'll come right back with the Mountaineers on this Sunday, as they fall into one of my favorite systems, which is 131-64 ATS since 1990.  Lay the points.

At 2:40 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Wisconsin.  The Bears have seemingly hit the skids, as they've covered just one of their last eight games (and 0-3 ATS their last three).  But the Bears are 34-17 ATS off back to back ATS losses.  And #1-seeded teams have cashed 63% in the NCAA Tourney's 2nd round, if they were off back-to-back ATS losses.  Take Baylor.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Indiana.  The Heat were blown out here, at home, by Indiana, 137-110, on Friday.  We'll take the Heat in this rematch, as winning NBA teams, playing with revenge against an opponent which upset it in the previous game by 25+ points, have gone 67% ATS since 1990.  Take Miami.

At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Abilene Christian.  The Wildcats defeated Nicholls St., 79-45, to win the Southland Conference championship.  And that was Abilene's third straight win by more than 21 points.  But Southland teams are a horrid 0-16 SU and 4-11-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +25 points in the NCAA Tourney.  Meanwhile, Texas is 36-1 SU and 26-11 ATS when favored by more than 7 points against a non-conference foe off a win.  Finally, NCAA underdogs (or PK) off three straight wins by more than 15 points are a poor 31% ATS over the last 31 post-seasons.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:20 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Norfolk State.  We played on the Spartans on Thursday, and got the $$$ when it upset Appalachian State.  That was the Spartan's 7th straight win, overall.  But they will be overwhelmed tonight by a Gonzaga offense which ranks #1 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season.  Gonzaga's 19-6 ATS when laying more than 25 points, if it wasn't off a SU/ATS win.  And when matched up against #1-seeded teams, .695 (or worse) clubs are a soft 14-29 ATS, if they were off an upset NCAA Tourney win.  Take the Bulldogs minus the points.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over San Antonio.  The Bucks have won 5 straight, and 10 of their last 11.  Tonight, they'll welcome San Antonio to Fiserv Forum, where the Bucks are 15-5 this season.  San Antonio had to play last night and, although it won, it is a poor 4-9 ATS on the road if it won the previous night.  The Spurs have also covered just 30.4% since 1990 when getting 2+ points at a rested Eastern Conference opponent, if the Spurs were playing without rest.  Take Milwaukee to blow out San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings won on the road last night, when they upset the Boston Bruins.  That was also the Kings' 2nd straight upset win.  We'll go against them tonight, as they're playing without rest, while Philly had the last two nights off.  And unrested teams off back to back upset road wins have covered just 32% since 1991 vs. foes that had the previous two nights off.  Take Philly.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Golden State.  If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.  That will be the attitude of Memphis tonight, as it gets a second chance to defeat Golden State.  Last night, the Warriors won their second straight, when they upset Memphis by 13 points, even though Steph Curry was sidelined.  He will once again be in street clothes, but after losing last night, you can rest assured Memphis won't take the Warriors lightly.  The Warriors are a poor 1-10 ATS their last 11, and 8-24-1 ATS their last 33, off back-to-back wins.  Take Memphis minus the points.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Ohio.  The Bobcats won the Mid-American Conference tourney with an 84-69 upset of Buffalo, while Virginia was knocked out of the ACC Tournament by COVID-19.  Prior to losing its bout with the COVID-19 protocols, Virginia won, but failed to cover, in a 72-69 win against Syracuse.  The good news for the Cavaliers is that they'll get an opportunity to defend their 2019 championship.  And we'll lay the points with Virginia tonight, as it's 28-12 ATS off an ATS loss in its previous game.  Take Virginia.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over UConn.  Both of these teams lost in their respective tournaments.  Maryland fell to #1-seeded Michigan by 13 points, while UConn lost by 3 to Creighton.  The line on this game opened at UConn -2/Maryland +2, but has ticked higher -- and enough so that we will step in and take the points with the Terrapins.  It's true that Maryland was just 10-12 in Big 10 play this season.  But it played in (by far) the best conference in the country, so we will take its losing Big 10 record with a boulder of salt.  Based on my numbers, I believe Maryland is undervalued.  Also, one of the last things you want to do is give a Big 10 Conference team points in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.  Indeed, Big 10 teams are 17-6-1 ATS when getting +2 (or more) points in Round 1.  But that's not the best part.  If our Big 10 team was blown out by double-digits in its previous game, then our 17-6 record zooms to 9-0-1 ATS.  Finally, in match-ups between Big East and Big 10 Conference teams in the NCAA Tournament, underdogs of less than 6 points have gone 20-10 ATS.  Grab the points with Maryland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Montreal Canadiens over the Vancouver Canucks.  The Canucks won, in overtime, 3-2, last night.  But that was just Vancouver's 4th win in the last 17 games here vs. the Canadiens.  Moreover, they also extended their streak of NOT winning in regulation at Montreal to 17 straight games.  We'll take Montreal to bounce back tonight.  Goaltender Carey Price should be back in net after backup Jake Allen got the start last night.  With last night's loss, Allen is now 0-2-4 his last six starts.  Meanwhile, Price is 3-0-2 vs. Vancouver this season (2.14 GAA).  It's unclear who will man the pipes for Vancouver.  But with Thatcher Demko playing last night, it's very possible backup Braden Holtby will get the call tonight.  And Holtby is 1-2 with a 4.90 GAA vs. Montreal this season.  Regardless, we'll take the homestanding Canadiens to bounce back on Saturday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Calgary Flames.  For the early part of this NHL season, Toronto was the league's best team.  It sprinted out to an 18-6 record, but has dropped six of its last seven games, including a 4-3 loss to these Flames last night.  Still, there's no reason to panic.  And there's every reason to believe Toronto will right its ship tonight vs. Calgary.  The Leafs are 25-11 off back to back losses (and 7-3 off 3+ losses).  And Toronto is also 50-31 (+8 games on the moneyline) when playing with revenge from a loss.  Meanwhile, Calgary is 1-6 after scoring more than 3 goals;  5-14 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) off a road division win; and 81-117 (minus 41 games on the moneyline) after a road win in which it scored more than 3 goals.  Take Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:25 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Grand Canyon.  The Hawkeyes were 21-8 SU and 15-13 ATS this season.  But it played a rugged schedule, which included games against #1-seeded Gonzaga, #1-seeded Michigan, #1-seeded Illinois (two games), and #2-seeded Ohio State (two games).  Against that 'murderer's row,' Iowa was 1-5 SU/ATS.  Against the rest of its schedule, the Hawkeyes were 20-3 SU and 14-8 ATS.  The good news for Iowa today is that nobody would mistake the Antelopes for a #1 or #2-seeded team.  Iowa has been installed as a double-digit favorite, which bodes well for it this evening, as Iowa was 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in games it was laying more than 10 points.  And, even better, it's 29-10-1 ATS when laying double-digits vs. non-conference foes, and 9-1 ATS off a loss when playing a foe off a win.  The Hawkeyes also fall into several of my favorite systems, including one with a 118-70 ATS record (which was 3-1 yesterday), and another with a 151-65 ATS record (which was 1-0 yesterday).  Lay the points with Iowa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Iona.  Our picks for this year's Final Four are Baylor, Gonzaga, West Virginia and this Crimson Tide team.  Of all the 68 teams that qualified for this NCAA Tournament, the Crimson Tide have the nation's best defense, per Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency numbers, as they give up just 86.9 points per 100 possessions.  Defensive efficiency has long been one of my favorite basketball metrics.  So, it's noteworthy that, of the other 13 teams that rank among the Top 15 in this category, that played yesterday, such defensive juggernauts went 5-1 ATS (provided they didn't play another team ranked in the Top 15).  This is a huge step-up in class for Iona, which has been installed as a double-digit underdog for just the 2nd time this season.  In its other game as a double-digit dog, it was blown out by 22 by Seton Hall.  Alabama is 8-3-1 ATS its last 12 when laying double digits, while Iona is 0-16 SU and 5-11 ATS when getting double-digits, including 0-7 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Even worse for Iona:  Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference champs have gone 2-13 ATS in the NCAA Tourney when priced from +7 to +21 points.  Finally, the Gaels fall into a negative Tourney system of mine which is 61-160 ATS since 1990.  Take the Crimson Tide minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays minus the points over Cal-Santa Barbara.  The Gauchos won the Big West tournament last week, and have earned a 12 seed in this NCAA Tourney.  But Big West teams have under-performed in the NCAA Tournament, including 4-13 ATS when installed as an underdog of more than four points.  Creighton was seeded fifth by the committee, and probably hoped to get a Top 4 seed.  But that likely went out the window last weekend.  To say the Bluejays had a bad game last Saturday would be a massive understatement.  Creighton was favored by eight points in the Big East title game vs. Georgetown, yet lost by 25 points, 73-48.  In that game, the normally reliable Bluejays' offense (77.0 ppg; 47.6% FG) converted just 28.8% of its shots.  Meanwhile, Georgetown canned 46.6%.  And that game was a complete reversal of the previous meeting between the two teams (won by Creighton, 63-48) where the Bluejays hit 44.1%, while Georgetown only made 27.6%.  I love Creighton to bounce back on Saturday afternoon, as teams off blowout losses by more than 17 points have covered 68% in the NCAA Tournament since 1991 if they were seeded among the Top 2 in their conference tourney.  And if they're matched up against a .700 (or better) foe in the 1st Round of the NCAA Tourney, then our angle zooms to 78% ATS over the last 30 years.  Creighton is an awesome 32-13 ATS off a double-digit loss, including 15-3 ATS its last 18 off a 15-point (or worse) defeat.  Lay the points with the Bluejays.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Texas Southern.  The Tigers earned this date with Michigan by defeating Mount St. Mary's in a 'play-in' game on Thursday.  That moved their record to 17-8 SU and 13-10 ATS.  Unfortunately, #16-seeded teams, with good W/L percentages above .630, have been awful in the tournament when getting 21+ points, as they've gone 7-23 ATS.  Michigan rolled to a 20-4 record this season.  And three of its four losses were to a revenge-minded opponent it defeated earlier in the year.  But the Tigers won't have the benefit of previous game experience or motivation from revenge this afternoon.  On the other hand, Michigan lost its previous game to the Ohio State Buckeyes, and the Wolves typically bounce back strong off losses, as they're 84-47-2 ATS off a loss, including 10-0-1 ATS their last 11, and 16-1-1 ATS their last 18 when laying 5+ points.  Lay the points with Juwan Howard's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:45 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over St. Bonaventure.  The Bonnies won the Atlantic 10 Tourney with a 74-65 victory over VCU, while LSU fell one point short in the SEC Championship game against Alabama.  Unfortunately for St. Bonaventure, it has not fared well against non-conference foes off a loss, and especially not when priced from +7 to -15 points, as it's covered just 18 of 56 (and 0-9 ATS if its foe was off an upset loss).  Take LSU minus the points.

At 12:45 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over NC Greensboro.  Florida State lost in the ACC Title game to Georgia Tech, 80-75, as a 4.5-point favorite.  But off that upset loss, I love FSU to rebound this afternoon against the Spartans.  Indeed, ACC Conference favorites of 8+ points have gone 36-9 ATS against .714 (or better) opponents, if our ACC team was off an upset loss, and failed to cover the spread by 9+ points in its previous game.  Lay the points with the Seminoles.

At 12:15 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Georgetown.  The Hoyas surprised many with their run to the Big East title last weekend.  Among Georgetown's victims were Villanova and Creighton, who both made this NCAA Tournament.  But off its string of four straight upset wins, we will fade the Hoyas this afternoon, as teams off 4 straight upset wins have covered 0 of their last 7, and just four of their last 19 games.  And in the last 31 years of this NCAA Tournament, teams off upset wins in their previous four games have covered just 35.7%.  Take Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met here last night, and the Suns blew a 15-point, 3rd quarter lead to lose, 123-119.  We'll take Phoenix in the rematch, as NBA teams have gone 27-9 ATS when playing the 2nd of back-to-back games against a foe which upset it as a 9.5-point (or bigger) underdog, provided that foe's W/L percentage was .600 (or less).  Additionally, the Suns are 11-3 ATS off a loss, while the Timberwolves are 0-23 SU and 6-17 ATS as an unrested underdog off an upset win.  Take the Suns minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Winthrop.  The Wildcats will look to bounce back from their upset loss to Georgetown, as a 6-point favorite last week.  Here, they'll battle Winthrop, the Big South Conference champion.  Just two points separated the Eagles from an undefeated season, as their only loss was against NC-Asheville, on Jan. 29.  The Bulldogs won that game, 57-55, as a 12.5-point underdog.  Today, the 23-1 Eagles have been installed as a mid-sized underdog vs. Villanova.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with a team which hasn't lost by 3+ points all season, especially given that Winthrop was 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog (and 13-11 ATS, overall).  But be careful.  In fact, NCAA teams with a win percentage > .883 are a soft 35.7% ATS in the Tourney when installed as an underdog, including 0-6-1 ATS over the last three Tourneys.  Even worse:  Villanova is a spectacular 44-14-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 4+ points in its previous game, if it was matched up against a foe with an ATS win percentage greater than 45.5% (and 17-0-1 ATS if priced from -6.5 to -12 points).  Take the Wildcats to blow out Winthrop.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Morehead State.  So, a quick trivia question:  name the team which came the closest to defeating 26-0 Gonzaga this season.  Answer:  West Virginia.  Indeed, the Mountaineers are the ONLY team which Gonzaga didn't beat by 10+ points this season, as the score in the game was 87-82.  Likewise, the Mountaineers only lost to the 2nd best team, Baylor, by five points, 94-89.  So, this is a team which has the talent to win against ANY team in the country.  And WVU is one of my picks to make the Final Four (along with Gonzaga, Baylor and Alabama).  It's true that WVU was upset by Oklahoma State not once, but twice, to end its season.  But NCAA Tourney teams favored by 7+ points are 90% ATS the past 15 years off back to back losses.  We'll lay the points in this NCAA Tourney opener, as the Mountaineers are also 34-16-2 in the NCAA/NIT Tourneys, including 21-9 ATS in the NCAA.  Take WVU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.