Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over SMU.  Last week, we played on SMU as a 9-point favorite, and got the $$$ in a 45-21 blowout win over Temple, which entered the game with a 5-1 record.  That was a huge win for the Mustangs, as it moved their record to 7-0, and dropped Temple to 5-2.  But off that big win, we'll look for a letdown by SMU on the road on Thursday.  Indeed, over the last 40 seasons, undefeated NCAA teams, with a record of 7-0 (or better), have cashed just 28% on the road following a win (and 14-point cover) over a once-beaten or undefeated team.  Even worse for SMU:  it's an awful 12-33 ATS off a double-digit conference win, including 0-11 ATS when priced from -6.5 to -20 points!  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over Columbus.  The Blue Jackets went into PNC Arena 12 days ago, and upset the Hurricanes, 3-2.  That was Carolina's first defeat of this season -- after opening with five straight wins.  And the Hurricanes are currently 6-3 on the year, and rank 4th in the league in shots on goal differential (+5.22).  Columbus is also off to a decent start, as it's 4-3-2 so far, including an upset win, 4-3, in overtime at Toronto, on Monday.  But Columbus is a poor 1-6 (minus 9 games on the money line) at home off an overtime win.  And it's 5-13 (minus 15 games on the money line) at home after allowing 3+ goals in each of its three previous games.  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Certainly, this will be a tough game for the Nuggets to win.  After all, Portland has won its last 18 home openers.  But I'm still going to take Denver in an underdog role, as it no doubt would love to avenge its playoffs ouster by the Blazers last May.  That Western Conference semi-finals series went 7 games, and the Nuggets lost Games 6 + 7 to fall to Portland.  However, Denver falls into a super 81.08% revenge system of mine.  Additionally, the Nuggets are a solid 28-16 ATS when playing with double-revenge, including 14-6 ATS on the road, and they're 13-4 ATS their last 17 as an underdog vs. a division rival.  Meanwhile, Portland's a poor 4-9 ATS at home vs. foes playing with double-revenge.  Finally, underdogs have cashed 60% since 1991 in their season opener, if they were playing a division foe, and were a .500 (or better) team the previous season.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Washington Nationals.  A lot of baseball people scratched their heads when they heard the Nats were starting Max Scherzer in Game 1 opposite Gerrit Cole.  It is generally thought that Stephen Strasburg is the Nats de facto #1 starter now after his Playoff performances vs. Milwaukee, Los Angeles and St. Louis (22 innings, 4 runs).  But now that Scherzer has beaten Cole and the Astros last night, it will be RHP Strasburg to face Justin Verlander in Game 2 tonight, so Washington Nationals fans must be pleased.  But Houston is in a similar situation.  It's certainly not a bad deal for A.J. Hinch to be able to hand the ball to a two-time Cy Young award winner in the second game of a World Series after you've dropped the first one.  And in this case, Verlander just might be the best option -- Cole included.  The veteran RHP also has a ridiculous record of 34-8 with an ERA of 2.81 and WHIP of 1.05 in 50 inter-league starts covering just over 330 innings.  And in two career starts vs. the Nationals, Verlander is a perfect 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 14 innings.  They may have lost Game 1 on Tuesday, but the Astros are still 23-10 in their last 33 post-season home games.  And they're 78-25 (+30 games on the money line) when favored by -150 or more.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over New England.  Yesterday, we played on the Washington Redskins as a double-digit home underdog vs. San Francisco, and got the $$$$ in a 9-point loss.  Here, the Jets have also been installed as a large home underdog -- currently ranging from +9.5 to +10.5, depending on one's sports book, as of this writing.  We'll grab the points with the Flyboys, as home underdogs of more than 9 points have gone 83-47-2 ATS vs. foes off a home win, including 35-13-1 ATS if their opponent was also off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  the Jets enter this contest off an upset win over Dallas last week, 24-22, as a 7.5-point home underdog.  And Monday Night home dogs of +2 (or more) points have gone 20-4 ATS off an upset win, including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS since 2011!  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the Edmonton Oilers.  The big question surrounding the Jets heading into this season is whether or not the window of opportunity for them to make the Stanley Cup Finals is closing (or has already closed).  Winnipeg lost in the First Round of the playoffs in six games to the Blues last season after reaching the conference finals against the Vegas Golden Knights the previous year.  The Jets have to replace three key veteran defensemen (Trouba, Myers, and Chiarot) but there is still plenty of fire-power on this team.  The extremely talented young front line of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Blake Wheeler could do enough damage to carry the Jets to their third straight post-season appearance.  The Jets have scored 543 goals in the past two seasons, third most in the NHL behind the Tampa Bay Lightning (609) and Toronto Maple Leafs (556).  The goaltending situation is solid with Connor Hellebuyck returning after another stellar season and at just 26 years of age, there's no reason to think that he won't get better still.  It's true Winnipeg has lost its last three games (by a combined score of 14-5).  But Winnipeg is 22-8 at home after not scoring three or more goals in any of its three previous games.  And the Jets have been pretty dominant in this series, winning five of the last six meetings going back to October of 2017.  Meanwhile, the Oilers are 0-4 in their last four games as an underdog.  Take the Jets.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Tennessee Titans/Los Angeles Chargers game.  On the surface, this looks like it will be a very low-scoring game.  The Chargers' last five games have averaged 36.8 ppg, while the Titans' last five games have averaged 10 points less, at 26.8 ppg.  And each of those 10 games have gone 'under' the total.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another 'under' here.  But such knee-jerk reactions are often wrong.  Indeed, over the last 40 years, NFL teams have gone 'over' 65% of the time if one team played its last 5 (or more) games 'under' the total, and its opponent played its last 3 (or more) games 'under' the total, and the Over/Under line was 42 or less points.  And the Titans have gone 57-30 'over' the total after scoring less than 14 points in their previous game, if the Over/Under line in their current game was 42 or less points.  Take the Chargers and Titans 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees.  In this series, we played on the Astros in Game 2 (win), and then played on the Yankees in Games 3 (lose) and 5 (win).  The Yankees were able to win last night's game, 4-1, to stay alive in the 7-game series.  But now that the ALCS has returned to Minute Maid Park, we'll have no problem taking Houston at home to close out New York.  Indeed, the Astros have gone 64-22 (+18 games on the money line) here, at home, this season.  Even better:  they're 80-43 (+24 games on the money line) after scoring less than two runs in their previous game.  Meanwhile, the Yankees are an ugly 5-20 (minus 14 games on the money line) their last 25 as road underdogs of +150 or less.  Veteran RHP Brad Peacock will get the start for Houston, and his ERA this season vs. New York is 3.00 (2 runs, 6 IP).  But most impressive is that he had 11 strikeouts against 0 walks.  Chad Green will open the game for New York, but he struggled vs. Houston this season (10.13 ERA).  Take the Astros.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Arizona State.  After being upset on the road by USC, 30-23, as a 3.5-point favorite, the Utes have righted their ship with back-to-back blowout wins over Washington State (38-13) and Oregon State (52-7).  We played on the Utes last week in their 45-point win over the Beavers.  And we'll come right back with them here, at home, vs. Arizona State, which upset Washington State last week.  Indeed, the Utes fall into a great 'momentum' system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any team which scored 87+ points, combined, in their two previous games, while giving up less than 24 points, combined, in those two games, and is now matched up against an opponent playing away from home off an upset win.  That angle's cashed 77.1% over the past 40 seasons.  The Utes currently have the nation's 2nd-ranked rush defense (2.4 yards per rush; 52.8 yards per game), and 8th-ranked scoring defense (13.1 ppg).  I look for them to shut down Arizona State.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Montreal Canadiens.  Now that the Blues have won their first Cup in franchise history (50+ years), the question is: What will they do for an encore?  Judging from their off-season moves, the answer is - more of the same.  Not that the Blues had many -- if any -- weaknesses, but they made themselves better.  St. Louis picked up an All Star defenseman in Justin Faulk (Carolina) and, although they gave up Joel Edmundson and some prospects to get him, the Blues are still ahead of the game on that one.  They also avoided arbitration with talented G Jordan Binnington by signing him to a two-year, $8.8 Million contract, ensuring that he'll be happy in a Blues' uniform for at least another couple of seasons.  The success of the Canadiens' season seemed to hinge on whether restricted FA Sebastian Aho would accept their massive offer.  He did, but unfortunately the 'Canes matched it and Montreal lost out.  With Aho, they're a playoff contender; without him, they're not.  The Blues are 6-2 in the last eight meetings and the home team is 7-2 in the last nine.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Anaheim Ducks.  Coming off of an incredible run last Spring, the question facing the Hurricanes is simple:  Can they do it again or was the second half of last season a fluke?  Carolina not only broke a nine-year playoff drought, but they made it all the way to the Conference Finals, beating the Defending Champion Caps before sweeping the Islanders in the second round.  In addition to managing to keep talented young Center Sabastian Aho, the 'Canes were also busy on the free agent market, signing forwards Erik Haula and Ryan Dzingel as well as adding talented D-man Jake Gardiner.  Goaltending may be the only weakness on this team but the incredibly deep blue-line may be able to pick up the slack defensively.  Having said that, #1 net-minder Petr Mrazek was pretty good last season and is off to an even better start this fall, and is still just 27 years old so could certainly improve from here.  The road team is 7-2 in the last nine meetings of these two and the 'Canes are a spectacular 46-12 in their last 58 games as a favorite.  Take Carolina.  NHL Elite Info Winner! As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over UNLV.  Last week, the Rebels pulled off a huge upset, when they went into Nashville, and defeated Vanderbilt, 34-10, as a 16-point underdog.  But before one gets too excited about that victory, it also must be noted that Vandy is now 1-5 straight-up, and 0-6 ATS on the season.  UNLV has to stay on the road for this game, and travel to Fresno for this Friday night contest.  Once again, UNLV is a double-digit underdog.  Unfortunately, conference underdogs priced from +3.5 to +18.5 points, off a non-conference win as an underdog of more than 14 points, are a horrid 0-14 SU/ATS since 1990!  Even worse for UNLV:  it generally doesn't put back-to-back good games together, as it's a wallet-busting 27-56 ATS off a point spread win.  Meanwhile, Fresno's 26-10-1 ATS its last 37.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Houston Astros.  After the victory by the Astros in Game 3 here, the Yankees are one loss away from elimination.  They will turn to their southpaw James Paxton tonight in Game 4.  Although he only lasted 2 1/3 innings in Game 2 of this series, Paxton didn't pitch that badly in Houston and should be very fresh tonight in this must-win situation.  The Astros will hand the ball to RH Justin Verlander and, although his success in the regular season in his career is well documented, the veteran's post-season resume is less settled, especially when it comes to road games.  For example, in his last road start -- Game 4 of the ALDS against the Rays -- Verlander lasted just 3 2/3 innings allowing four runs on seven hits with three walks and two homers allowed in a 4-1 loss.  And Yankee Stadium could be a much tougher place for him tonight than Tropicana Field was 10 days ago, especially if Verlander gets into trouble early.  Getting Paxton this start while they're still at home could be huge for the Yanks who are 6-0 in his last six starts in the Bronx.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St Louis Blues over Vancouver.  The defending Stanley Cup champs lost a heartbreaker to the Islanders on Monday, as they gave up the tying goal with less than a minute left in the 3rd period, and then lost 73 seconds into overtime on a Devon Toews goal.  It was the 2nd time in St. Louis' six games this season that it blew a 2-goal lead only to lose in overtime.  The good news is that it's back home tonight to take on Vancouver.  The Canucks did win their last game 5-1, but they're a poor 19-34 after scoring more than three goals in their previous game.  Even better:  St. Louis is a solid 13-3 off back to back defeats, and 27-17 (+8 games on the money line) at home vs. the Canucks.  Take the Blues.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves + the points over Louisiana Lafayette.  Arkansas State returns home tonight after playing its last two games on the road, while Lafayette comes into Jonesboro off a home game last week.  That bodes well for the Red Wolves, as Sun Belt Conference home underdogs have cashed 65.3% off back to back road games, if they were off a SU/ATS loss.  Additionally, La-Lafayette has covered just 30% over the last 19 seasons as favorites vs. Conference foes off upset losses, while Arkansas State has gone 42-29 ATS at home vs. Conference foes, including 10-0 straight-up and 9-1 ATS their last 10 with revenge.  And the Red Wolves do, in fact, have revenge, as they lost 47-43 last season to the Cajuns.  Finally, the Rajin' Cajuns fall into negative 84-162 and 40-111 ATS systems of mine after losing, 17-7, at home last week to Appalachian State.  Take Arkansas State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Ducks over the Buffalo Sabres.  Could this be the year that a team from Buffalo breaks through and wins a pro sports championship?  The Sabres are 5-0-1 and sitting atop their Division right now.  The 2019 roster remains largely unchanged from last season with young star Jack Eichel leading a talented group that might put it all together this season.  There was, however, a change behind the bench as Ralph Krueger takes over as head coach.  It's just the second NHL stint for Krueger who led the Oilers for a brief time in 2012-2013 before being let go and returning to Europe.  Speaking of new coaches, the Ducks have one as well.  Dallas Eakins -- very successful in Anaheim's minor league system -- has taken over for Randy Carlyle who was left in charge of an injury-plagued team too long last season.  The Ducks are 4-2 this season, and Goalie John Gibson continues to show that he's one of the best, as he's off to a great start with a .941 saves pct. and 1.82 GAA in his first five games.  Buffalo does come into this game off a 4-0 home shutout of the Dallas Stars.  Unfortunately, the Sabres are 4-18 on the road off a home game, and 2-13 on the road after scoring more than three goals in their previous game.  Meanwhile, the Ducks are 5-0 in their last five home games, and 9-1 in their last 10 after a game in which they scored less than three goals.  Take Anaheim.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Washington Nationals.  With the Nats holding a commanding a 3-0 NLCS lead and the Cards completely unable to solve their opponents' pitching (only two runs scored in three games), you would think a series sweep would be a done deal.  And, certainly, the historical stats bear that out.  In Baseball history, Best-of-Seven series have been sweeps in 29 of 36 series where one team held a 3-games-to-none lead.  This, by the way, is the primary reason for the inflation of the Nationals' odds for this game.  Of course, the last two times this has happened (2016 Indians/Blue Jays; 2017 Dodgers/Cubs), the team down 3-0 actually won Game 4.  Of course, the Nationals are now overwhelming favorites to advance to the World Series (and I hope they do, as I released them at 18-1 odds to win the World Series), but I don't think they'll win tonight.  For one thing, Washington will start a left-hander (Patrick Corbin) for the first time in this series.  And the Cards have done pretty well with an .810 OPS in eight games vs. southpaws this post-season (that's the second-best number of any club).  Second is the fact that the visitors will start RHP Daniel Hudson.  Although not garnering the notoriety of Flaherty, Wainwright, or Mikolas, the 24-year-old won 16 games in the regular season with a 3.35 ERA.  And his only post-season start was a good one (NLDS Game 3 vs. the Braves).  More importantly, during the regular season, Hudson was 1-1 vs. the Nats with a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two starts covering 13 innings.  Finally, the Cards are 6-0 in their last six road games vs. left-handed starters.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Montreal Canadiens.  Another season...another chance for the Lightning to show that they can win games after the month of April.  Over the past decade or so, Tampa has become the poster child for under-achievement in the post-season in just about any professional sport.  Last season however, they set the bar even higher than normal, posting one of the strongest regular seasons in NHL history before flaming out in the first round against the Blue Jackets in four straight games no less.  I'm actually quite optimistic about Tampa Bay this season, and released them at 7-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup this season.  Anyway, in an effort to bring in someone who knows what it's like to win a Cup (because he just won one), the Bolts signed Blues forward Patrick Maroon to a one-year contract.  They also shored up their defense by signing Kevin Shattenkirk to a one-year deal.  Clearly, a team that finished 2018-19 with a record 128 points in the regular season shouldn't have to do more than just "tweak" the roster, but keep its powerful core of players intact, which is exactly what the Lightning have done.  The Lightning are 23-6 after allowing more than three goals in their previous game.  And they're 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Canadiens coming into tonight.  Take Tampa Bay.  NHL High Roller Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Blackhawks over the Edmonton Oilers.  The Blackhawks have yet to win a game this season while the Oilers have yet to lose -- off to their first 5-0-0 start since 1985-1986.  For the 'Hawks, they needed to improve their defense in the off-season as their 3.55 GAA last season was second-worst in the league.  Mission accomplished -- at least from a personnel perspective -- as Chicago added blue-liners Calvin de Haan (Canes) and Olli Maatta (Pens) via the trade route.  They also provided long-time #1 Goalie Corey Crawford with some help, signing veteran Robin Lehner as a back-up but one that could see as many minutes as Crawford depending on how things go. It will be Crawford to start at home this evening and the 34-year-old has had success against the Oilers in his career, going 9-7 with a 2.53 GAA in 18 appearances against them.  One key for Crawford -- and perhaps the reason he's starting tonight -- is that he was much better at home last season (8-6 with a 2.54 GAA and .921 Sv Pct) than he was on the road (6-12; 3.32; .896).  Take the Blackhawks.  NHL Game of the Week.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees.  The Yankees surprised the Astros with an upset, shutout victory on the road in Game 1 here at Minute Maid Park.  And while it's never a good feeling going down 1-0 in a series in which you're heavily favored, the 'Stros have to be feeling pretty good about the fact that they will come back in Game 2 with a future Hall-of-Famer taking the mound.  RHP Justin Verlander won 20+ games for just the second time in his career this season.  And he led the league with 223 strikeouts (and became just the 18th pitcher in MLB history to reach 3000 Ks for his career).  You could argue that Gerrit Cole has been a slightly better performer this season, but Verlander is still probably the one guy you'd want on the hill in this situation.  Despite their surprising win last night, the Yankees are just 4-10 in the last 14 meetings in Houston, and 3-12 in their last 15 American League Championship Series road games.  Meanwhile, the Astros are 5-1 in Verlander's last six starts vs. the Yanks and 21-5 in their last 26 home games vs. a LH starter (Paxton goes for NY).  Take Houston.  AL Game of the Week.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Washington/Miami game.  These two teams have combined to go 0-9 this season, and are arguably the two worst teams in football.  It's true that each team lacks skilled offensive players, which would greatly explain why Miami has yet to score two touchdowns in a game, and why Washington (after QB Case Keenum's injury) has been unable to score twice in either of its two previous games.  Of course, it must also be noted that both teams have played strong defenses this season.  Washington has faced New England, Chicago, Dallas and Philly, while Miami has also gone up New England and Dallas, and played the Chargers and Baltimore, as well.  Thus, today's game is a significant departure for each team, as far as the defense it will face (Washington gives up 30.2 ppg; Miami surrenders 40.7 ppg).  I expect both offenses to move the ball, and for this game to be relatively high-scoring.  Indeed, since 1986, NFL match-ups (at Game 3 forward) between two teams whose defenses have each given up more than 30 points per game have gone 'over' the total 64.2% of the time.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Washington Nationals.  Both of these teams had victorious performances on the road in their respective Game 5s on Wednesday.  Unfortunately, each team was forced to use its best pitcher in its win, so neither team will have its #1 starter on the mound for the first two games of this series.  Last night, the Nationals got off to a great start behind the no-hit bid of veteran Anibal Sanchez.  We had the 'under' last night, so Washington's 2-0 triumph was welcomed by us.  But for this game, we will go with St. Louis, and its RHP Adam Wainwright.  He last pitched in Game 3 of the NLDS and he seemed to channel a younger version of himself in that performance.  He threw 7 2/3 brilliant innings, and allowed just four hits with eight strikeouts and two walks.  Unfortunately, the Cards' offense did little, and closer Carlos Martinez imploded, so Wainwright's effort was for naught in that one.  Here, the Cardinals have been installed as a home underdog vs. Max Scherzer.  However, St. Louis is 13-7 (+7.4 games on the money line) as a home underdog this season.  And Wainwright is 10-4 with a 3.10 ERA in 17 career appearances (15 starts) covering 98 2/3 innings vs. the Nats.  Take the Cards. MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Cincinnati.  We played on the Bearcats last week in their 27-24 upset win over Central Florida.  Although we certainly won't bemoan the result, it's also true that Cincinnati greatly benefited from the four Central Florida turnovers, as Cincy was outgained by 82 yards.  The Bearcats now have to travel to Houston, and have been installed as a road favorite.  Houston also comes into this game off a win, 46-25, at North Texas.  And the Cougars are 30-11 ATS at home off a road win, including 7-0 ATS their last seven.  More ammunition for taking the points with the home underdog:  Houston's won 25 of its last 28 games at TDECU Stadium.  And two of its three defeats were by just 3 and 4 points.  Finally, American Athletic home underdogs, priced from +4 to +12.5 points, have gone 20-5 ATS off a win.  Take the Cougars.  AAC Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals 'under' the total.  At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals 'under' the total.  The Nats won their first NLDS in dramatic fashion, taking two of three victories on the road.  So they shouldn't mind starting this series in St. Louis, especially knowing that they finished the season with a better record than the Cards.  Having used all of their "Big 3" pitchers (Strasburg, Scherzer, Corbin) in some capacity over the last two games, the Nats will turn to veteran RH Anibal Sanchez.  The 35-year-old very quietly had a solid season for DC (11-8; 3.85 ERA in 30 starts) as well as a great performance in his Game 2 start of the NLDS (5 IP; 1 ER; 4 H; 9K; 2 BB).  And although the sample size is small, Sanchez seems to like pitching at Busch Stadium.  In three starts here, Sanchez is 1-0 with a very nice 2.60 ERA.  The Cards will go with RH Miles Mikolas and the under is 5-0-1 in Mikolas' last six home starts vs. teams with a winning record, and 9-1-2 in his last 12 overall vs. winning teams.  Take the 'under.'  MLB High Roller Total. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over New England.  Last week, the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots blew out Washington, 33-7.  And that moved New England to 5-0 on the season.  On Thursday night, they will face the injury-riddled Giants, and have been installed as a favorite of more than two touchdowns.  It's always dangerous to lay this many points in the NFL, as double-digit favorites fail to cover the spread more often than not.  And we will happily take New York with the points in this game.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs have only covered 29% over the past 40 seasons if they were off a 20-point (or greater) road win, and matched up against an opponent off a loss.  And New England's 1-6 ATS when laying more than 17 points.  None of this bodes well for New England here.  Nor does the fact that the Giants are an awesome 25-9 ATS their last 34 when getting more than 9 points, including a perfect 11-0 ATS since December 18, 2004!  Finally, the Giants fall into 71-34, 231-140 and 76-32 ATS systems of mine based on the two teams' statistical profiles.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack minus the points over Syracuse.  The Wolfpack come into this game off an 18-point blowout loss at Florida State twelve days ago.  And they've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last three games.  But we will take NC State here, at home, as it falls into a 96-33 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Additionally, the Wolfpack are a perfect 10-0-1 ATS at home off a 14-point (or worse) defeat when matched up against a .500 (or better) conference foe off a home win.  Finally, ACC teams on a 3-game (or worse) point spread losing streak are 59-37 ATS in home conference games, if their opponent isn't also on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing with a week of rest.  Take NC State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays.  Last night, the wild card Nationals knocked out the #1-seeded Dodgers.  Will lightning strike twice today?  The surprising Rays have taken the team with the best record in baseball to a fifth game tonight, so Houston is trying to avoid the same fate which befell the Braves and Dodgers yesterday.  That isn't likely to happen tonight with RH Gerrit Cole taking the mound for the 'Stros.  Cole is the favorite for the AL Cy Young with a 20-5 record and league-leading 2.50 ERA and 326 strikeouts.  None of that would matter to him, however, if he can't nail down the win tonight to advance Houston to its third straight LCS.  The Rays may have tied this series up with two home victories, but they are 0-5 in their last five Division Series road games.  Even worse:  the Astros are 23-2 (+18 games on the money line) in Cole's home starts as a favorite of -200 or more.  And they're 47-20 (+19 games on the money line) after not scoring 2+ runs in their previous game.  Finally, Tyler Glasnow's teams are a money-burning 1-5 in his career as an underdog of +150 or more.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Washington Nationals.  This is what a baseball fan hopes for:  a win-or-go-home fifth game with each team's ace going to the mound.  There isn't much to separate these two RHPs -- the Nationals' Stephen Strasburg and the Dodgers' Walker Buehler -- and each could throw six or seven shutout innings tonight.  Which means this game could very well come down to the bullpens.  And in that regard, it is no contest, as the Dodgers had the best relief in the NL (3.78 ERA), while the Nationals had the worst (5.66).  The fact that Washington is still willing to trot out 42-year-old Fernando Rodney, who has been abominable, tells you all you need to know about Washington's bullpen.  Meanwhile, L.A. has the triple threat of Japanese veteran RH Kenta Maeda, side-arm southpaw machine Adam Kolarek, and nasty RH closer Kenley Jansen.  And none of them has given up a run thus far in the Playoffs.  Despite their win on Monday, the Nats are just 5-11 in the last 16 meetings while the Dodgers are 7-1 in Buehler's last eight starts.  Even better:  the Dodgers are 38-19 (+11 games on the money line) off a loss, while Washington is 52-43 (but minus 8 games on the money line) off a win.  And L.A.'s 28-12 (+10 games on the money line) as a home favorite, priced from -125 to -175.  Take Los Angeles.  MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns over Appalachian State.  These two teams met twice last season, with the Mountaineers taking both games by similar scored.  They won in the regular season, 27-17, and then prevailed in the inaugural Sun Belt Conference Title game, 30-19.  But both of those games last season were played at home, in Boone, North Carolina.  Tonight's game will be at "The Swamp," in Lafayette, Louisiana, where the Rajin' Cajuns have won six straight games.  Even better:  the Cajuns are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season, and Billy Napier's men also fall into 36-16 and 20-1 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Finally, Lafayette has scored 77, 45 and 37 points in its three previous games.  And rested NCAA teams on a 3-game (or better) win streak, that have scored more than 150 points over their three previous games, have cashed 81.1 percent since 1980 at home.  Take Louisiana-Lafayette.  SUN BELT GAME OF THE WEEK.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Atlanta Braves.  Game 3 of this NLDS on Sunday was a thriller, with the Braves plating three runs in the top of the ninth off of St Louis closer Carlos Martinez to take a 3-1 victory.  Game 4 is tonight and the Cards will send RHP Dakota Hudson to the mound for his first career post-season appearance.  Dakota had one of the quietest 16-win seasons we've seen in quite some time, and this afternoon he takes the mound in a must-win start for the Cards who are one loss away from elimination.  There are several reasons to think that the 25-year-old is up to the task today.  First, and most obvious, is the fact that in 17 starts here at Busch Stadium this season, Hudson was 9-2 with a 2.75 ERA in just over 98 innings (and the Cards were 13-4 in his 17 home starts).  Then there's also the fact he was very solid in his only start against the Braves in 2019 (6 1/3 IP, 2 ER on 5 hits).  And Hudson finished the season strong, going 6-1 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts covering 61 innings in August and September combined.  Despite their loss on Sunday, the Cards are still 9-5 in their last 14 home playoff games, and they're also 10-3 in Dakota Hudson's daytime starts.  We will take St. Louis, and only list its starter, Hudson (and not Atlanta's starter).  MLB High Roller Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Atlanta Braves.  Sometimes, in a critical playoff game, the thing a team wants more than anything else is post-season experience on the mound.  With this NLDS returning to St. Louis all tied-up at one game apiece, that's exactly what the Cards are thinking right about now.  They'll send RHP Adam Wainwright to the hill for Game 3 with the knowledge that he has more playoff experience than the entire Braves' rotation combined.  And it's not just experience, either, but rather very successful experience, at that.  In a total of 24 post-season appearances (12 starts), Wainwright has a 3.03 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 89 innings.  And he has never lost in an NLDS situation, going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in 12 appearances, including six starts, covering just over 45 innings.  On the other end of the spectrum is Mike Soroka, who will make his playoffs debut for Atlanta.  The Cardinals can also take comfort in the fact that Wainwright finished up the regular season strong, as he led the Cards to six wins in his last seven starts, going back to the end of August.   The Cards are also 10-4 in Wainwright's last 14 starts vs. the Braves (5-2 in his last seven at home).  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Pittsburgh.  Last week, the Steelers blew out division rival, Cincinnati, 27-3, for their first win of the season.  Meanwhile, the Ravens also played a division rival, Cleveland, but were upset, 40-25, as a 7.5-point favorite.  That was Baltimore's 2nd straight defeat, as it also narrowly lost, 33-28, to Kansas City, which is one of the AFC's top two teams.  I love Baltimore to bounce back off those 2 losses, as NFL teams off an upset loss by more than 14 points have cashed 67% since 1980 vs. opponents off a win by 20+ points.  Also, the Ravens are outscoring foes by an impressive 8.75 points per game.  And the Steelers are 0-7 ATS their last seven at home vs. foes that owned a scoring margin of 5.5 (or better).  Finally, Baltimore is a solid 21-11-3 ATS on the road off a home upset defeat, including a perfect 4-0-1 ATS if it was favored by more than 7 points in its previous game.  Take Baltimore minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over Auburn.  The Gators come into this match-up of Top 10-rated SEC teams off back-to-back stellar defensive efforts.  Two weeks ago, the Gators held Tennessee to 3 points in a 31-point victory.  Then, last Saturday, Florida shut out the Towson Tigers, 38-0.  The 5-0 Gators are giving up just 8.8 points per game, yet have been installed as a home underdog in this contest.  We'll take the points with Florida, as home underdogs have gone 67.7% ATS, at Game 5 forward, if their defense was surrendering 13.5 (or less) points per game, and they were matched up against a conference foe with a winning SU and ATS record.  Even better:  Florida's an awesome 65-38-2 ATS in SEC Conference games off back to back double-digit wins, while Auburn's 12-25 ATS vs. Conference foes off back-to-back double-digit wins (including 1-6 ATS if Auburn was favored).  Take Florida + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Central Florida.  The Bearcats are 3-1 SU/ATS on the season, with their only SU/ATS defeat to Ohio State.  Of course, a 42-0 loss to Ohio State is not all that bad, given it was the lowest amount of points the Buckeyes scored all season.  Last week, the Bearcats went into Marshall, and blew out the Thundering Herd, 52-14, as a 4-point road favorite.  Off that 38-point blowout win, we'll grab the points with Cincy in this American Athletic Conference opener for the Bearcats.  Since 1980, .500 (or better) teams have cashed 58.1% in home Conference games off a blowout win the previous week by more than 35 points.  That bodes well for the Bearcats on Friday.  As does the fact that Cincy's 27-15 ATS its last 42 as underdogs priced from +3 to +7.5 points, while Central Florida's 4-12 ATS its last 16 as a road favorite of -3 to -7.5 points.  Take the Bearcats.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the St. Louis Cardinals.  All eight remaining teams are in action today and no match-up is more compelling than this one.  When it comes to their starters, the Braves have decided to go with age and experience over perhaps the raw numbers in the first two games of this NLDS against the Cards.  Veteran southpaw Dallas Keuchel got the call in Game 1 while Atlanta now turns to 27-year-old RHP Mike Foltynewicz for Game 2.  Despite a winning record in the regular season (8-6), Folty's 4.54 ERA was not what he or the team expected coming out of his breakout 2018 campaign.  Certainly his injuries played a big part in his struggles and it will all be forgotten if Foltynewicz can have October success.  And his recent results point to him doing just that as Folty was 4-1 in September, with a 1.50 ERA and 0.70 WHIP, covering 30 innings.  But there is perhaps only one recent stat which matters for today and that is the fact that the Braves are an incredible 12-1 in Foltynewicz's last 13 starts going back to early June.  Take Atlanta.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the
Washington Nationals.  The Nats scored an exciting, come-from-behind
victory against the Brewers on Tuesday night (which greatly pleased me,
as Washington was my choice to win the World Series, at 18-1 odds). 
Their reward is that they now have to fly across the country to face a
well-rested, top-seeded Dodgers club in Game 1 of the NLDS. The Nats
would liked to have had co-ace Stephen Strasburg fresh, and ready to go
tonight.  But when they got into trouble on Tuesday, they had to burn
him in innings six through eight.  That strategy worked.  But it also
means that their starter tonight will be LH Patrick Corbin.  The
30-year-old is very familiar with the Dodgers from his time in Arizona. 
But that's not necessarily a good thing as Corbin is just 5-9 in 21
games -- 19 starts -- vs. L.A. The Dodgers will go with RHP Walker
Buehler who is 14-4, with a 3.26 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, in 30 starts this
season.  More important for tonight is the fact that Buehler is 6-1,
with a 2.86 ERA, in 14 home starts this season, covering just over 91
innings.  Likewise, the Dodgers are 54-18 in their last 72 home games. 
Finally, the Nats are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings, and Corbin's teams
are 10-18 on the road (minus 10 games on the money line) in his starts
when the Over/Under was less than 9 runs.  Take Los Angeles.  As always,
good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Both of these teams come into this Monday Night Football game with an 0-3 record.  And each team lost road games in Weeks 1 + 3, and a home game in Week 2.  But even though the profile of these two teams is similar, the Bengals have been the better team as far as the point spread is concerned.  Cincy is 2-1 ATS, while Pittsburgh is 1-2 ATS.  And the Bengals' point spread differential is 4.5 ppg better than that of the Steelers, while its margin of victory is 2.33 ppg better.  We'll grab the points with the Bengals, as winless home favorites have gone 10-20 ATS in Week 4 since 1983, while winless road underdogs have cashed 25 of their last 36 in Week 4.  Even better:  Monday Night Football favorites of 6 points or less have covered just 22% of the time since 1982, provided their win percentage was less than .300.  Take the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars + the points over Utah.  Both of these teams were upset last week.  Wazzu blew a 32-point lead in a 67-63 loss to the UCLA Bruins, while Utah fell to USC, 30-23, as a 3.5-point road favorite.  The silver lining for Mike Leach's Cougars is that QB Anthony Gordon established a school record with nine touchdown passes, and he also threw for 570 yards.  Unfortunately, the Cougars committed six turnovers to aid the Bruins' comeback, which was the 3rd largest deficit overcome in NCAA Football Division 1 history.  I love Washington State to rebound on the road as an underdog at Utah.  After all, since 1981, single digit underdogs off a loss as a double-digit conference home favorite, have covered 66% the following week vs. conference foes.  And Washington State is a solid 16-5 ATS its last 21 as a road underdog, while Utah is a dreadful 18-37 ATS in the regular season as a favorite of less than 12 points (or PK) vs. winning foes.  The Cougars have covered the last four meetings vs. Utah, by an average of 8.9 ppg.  Take Washington State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Seattle Mariners.  The A's have once again defied the baseball experts and are heading to the post-season for the fifth time in the last eight seasons.  Oakland will be in a one-game Wild Card playoff against the Tampa Bay Rays.  And, although they may be an underdog on paper facing either Charlie Morton or Blake Snell, that's been the A's situation pretty much all season.  Tonight, they will send LHP Brett Anderson to the mound for his 31st start of the season.  Anderson has already set a career high with 12 victories, and he has also posted a solid 4.00 ERA in his 30 starts.  But the main reason to like Anderson tonight is the fact that, in 22 previous appearances against the Mariners (21 starts), the veteran southpaw has gone 10-5 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in just under 130 innings.  Those 10 victories represent the most that Anderson has logged against any team in the Majors by far.  Finally, the A's are 9-1 in Anderson's last 10 road starts, while the Mariners are 6-23 in their last 29 home games vs. teams with a winning road record.  Take Oakland.  MLB Road Warrior Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over California.  The Golden Bears are 4-0 and ranked among the Top 20 teams in the country after last week's upset win at Mississippi.  And that was the 2nd upset win on the road this year for Justin Wilcox's men.  Unfortunately, California has not had the same success in front of their home faithful.  In Berkeley this season, the Bears are 0-2 ATS.  And they're a wallet-busting 5-16 ATS their last 21 when favored by less than 7 points (or PK).  Even worse for California:  since 1980, Pac-12 (or Pac-10) Conference teams have cashed just 13.3% at home off an upset road win, if they were matched up against a .666 (or better) foe off a loss.  Last week, Arizona State fell to 3-1 on the season with a 34-31 upset loss to Colorado, so it qualifies in my 86.7% ATS angle.  And the Sun Devils are also a super 16-3-1 ATS off a loss if their opponent is a Pac-12 Conference rival off a SU win, including 9-0 ATS their last nine as an underdog.  Off last weekend's defeat, we'll grab the points with the Sun Devils to bounce back on this Friday.  Take ASU + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Washington Nationals.  In all likelihood, the Indians' hopes for a post-season spot will come to an end in DC this weekend.  And it's a shame as the Tribe had a miraculous season once again, especially considering the amount of injuries it had to endure throughout.  The chances of Cleveland sweeping the Nats -- who are still playing for home field advantage in the Wild Card Game -- on the road without the use of the DH are slim, at best (and then they would still need help from the Blue Jays vs. Tampa to get into the post-season).  But we'll give the Indians the edge tonight in Game 1 with RHP Zach Plesac going to the mound opposite rookie RH Austin Voth.  Plesac has had a very solid first season, going 8-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 20 starts covering just under 111 innings.  And although he is just 3-4 on the road, Plesac's ERA away from home is more than a half-run below what it is in Cleveland (3.51 vs. 4.10).  The Nats are also 0-4 in their last four inter-league home games vs. teams with a winning record, while the Indians are 9-4 in Plesac's last 13 starts.  Take Cleveland.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago White Sox.  The White Sox dealt a blow to the Indians' post-season chances last night, beating them at home easily by the score of 8-3.  Now Cleveland has to regroup for the final game of this series before traveling to DC to play a very good Nationals team over three games to end the regular season.  Indians' rookie RHP Aaron Civale has only allowed one earned run in each of his three September starts coming into tonight, but all the 24-year-old has to show for his strong efforts is one victory.  Of course, that one victory was against this White Sox club, in Cleveland back on September 2.  For the season, Civale is 3-3 with an excellent 1.82 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in nine starts covering just over 54 innings.  Start number 10 will be his first ever in Chicago.  But, in general, Civale has pitched well on the road, with a 2.43 ERA in five away starts covering just under 30 innings.  Despite their win on Wednesday, the Sox are just 4-11 in their last 15 vs. teams with a winning record.  And Cleveland's 29-10, +9 games on the money line this season when priced from -175 to -250, while the ChiSox are 14-36 their last 50 as a home dog of +175 or more.  Take the Tribe.  AL Game of the Month.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Los Angeles Angels.  A's starter Frankie Montas was setting the league on fire in the first half of the season.  Through his first 15 starts, the 26-year-old RHP was 9-2 with a 2.70 ERA in 90 innings and seemed poised for an All Star selection in what appeared to be a breakout campaign.  Then came news of a positive test for PEDs and Montas quickly went from hero to goat with an 80-game suspension.  He's served his time now and Montas is back to make his first start since June 20 tonight in Anaheim.  If he's 75% of what he was back in June, this should be Montas' time to shine to show the league that he's the real deal, and ready for the Post-season.  Right after the All Star break, Angels LHP Andrew Heaney looked like he was going to finally break out and realize the potential which so many have predicted.  July and August were solid for the 28-year-old but September has been a disaster (1-3 with a 9.31 ERA in four starts) so far.  Oakland is 7-2 in Montas' last nine road starts vs. losing teams.  Take the A's.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The Cubs have been all but eliminated from post-season contention with a losing streak which has now reached 7 games.  Their stretch run couldn't have gone any worse, and it was wholly unexpected for the team that -- only three years ago -- was on top of the baseball world.  And the future doesn't look all that bright for a team which has many of its best players already into their prime, and whose minor league system has been depleted through trades.  But even this Cubs team can win this one tonight in Pittsburgh.  Veteran LHP Jon Lester will go to the hill for the 31st time this season.  Lester has been a Pirates slayer through most of his career, going 12-6 with a 3.18 ERA in 22 starts covering just over 124 innings against Pittsburgh.  And here at PNC Park, Lester is 6-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 10 career starts (58 1/3 innings).  It also doesn't hurt his chances that the Bucs are going with 24-year-old rookie RHP Dario Agrazal, who is 4-5 with a 5.08 ERA in 14 games (13 starts).  Take the Cubs.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the St Louis Cardinals over Arizona.  The Cards gave up a run in the bottom of the 9th last night, which tied the game at 1-run apiece, and then proceeded to lose in extra innings, 3-2.  We'll take St. Louis to bounce back on Wednesay afternoon, as it's 18-7 this season on the road when favored -150 or less.  Michael Wacha will get the start today, and he's given up just 10 runs over his last eight games (2.52 ERA).  The Cards are a solid 16-3 behind Wacha when he's not allowed 2+ earned runs in either of his two previous starts.  Take the Cardinals.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Los Angeles Angels.  It's looking pretty good for the Oakland A's to once again make the post-season when hardly anyone gave them a shot six months ago.  The A's playoff probability is 97% heading into the week and they have series with the Angels and Mariners to close things out, so they are in the driver's seat.  You can add Homer Bailey's name to the long list of veteran pitchers who have seen their careers rejuvenated in Oakland.  The 33-year-old RH was 1-14 with a 6.09 ERA last season in Cincy, and then 7-6 with a 4.80 number in 18 starts with KC, before getting shipped off to the East Bay.  Since donning the green and gold, Bailey has gone 6-2 with a 4.21 ERA in 12 starts, and he's coming off one of his best starts in a long time.  Last Wednesday, Bailey threw seven innings of three-hit shutout ball against the Royals with 11 strikeouts and one walk.  Anything close to that tonight should get him another victory and solidify his spot in the post-season rotation.  Finally, we note that Bailey is 3-0 with a 2.39 ERA in six starts here at home this season.  Take the A's.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over Miami.  The Mets lost last night, 8-4.  And their post-season chances are now hanging by a thread.  Tonight, they'll face Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara, who has a dismal 1-8 record over his last 15 starts.  Even worse for Miami:  it's 18-54 (minus 21 games on the money line) on the division road its last 70.  New York will hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard, who has dominated the Marlins in his career.  He's made 10 starts vs. Miami, and owns a 7-1 record, with a 1.83 ERA and an 0.91 WHIP.  Take New York.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  It's do or die right now for the Chicago Cubs who are four games behind in the race for the final NL Wild Card with six games to go.  If there can be any good news for a team that has lost six games in a row it is that they will be starting a three-game series against the Pirates.  If there has been a more lopsided series lately than the Cubs and Pirates, it's hard to imagine what it might look like.  In the last five meetings between these two clubs, Chicago is 5-0 and has out-scored Pittsburgh by an absurd total of 56-16.  On top of that ridiculous stat, you have RHP Kyle Hendricks going to the mound for the Cubs.  And the veteran has been pretty dominant against the Bucs this season.  In three 2019 starts vs. the Pirates, Hendricks is 1-1 with a sparkling 2.25 ERA a 1.00 WHIP in 16 innings.  Meanwhile, the Pirates have imploded in the second half as they are 8-22 in their last 30 home games.  Finally, the Cubs are 5-1 in Hendrick's last six starts and 4-0 in his last four vs. teams with a losing record.  Take the Cubbies.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox.  Add Blake Snell's name to the long list of Cy Young winners who come back the year after they win the award to lay a big fat egg.  Of course, injuries have played a significant part in the southpaw's disappointing numbers this season -- 6-7 with a 4.19 ERA in 21 starts.  Snell was shut down in July in order to have surgery on his ailing elbow.  Fortunately, the surgery was of the arthroscopic variety and Snell appears fully recovered less than two months later.  In his first start back on Sept. 17, Snell was limited to two innings, but was perfect over that period.  Tonight he will go a little bit longer, but likely not more than four frames.  If the 26-year-old can get back to a full workload in time for the playoffs and then contribute to success for his team, all will be forgotten regarding his 2019 struggles.  Now eliminated from any playoff contention, the Red Sox will go with veteran RHP Jhoulys Chacin who is an ugly 3-11 with a 5.66 ERA in 23 games (22 starts).  The Rays are 18-4 in Snell's last 22 home starts vs. winning teams.  Take Tampa Bay.  MLB High Roller Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals have been installed as a home favorite, notwithstanding the fact that they're winless on the season, and have covered just five of their last 18 games as a home favorite.  Yes, it's true that Carolina's #1 QB, Cam Newton, is sidelined with a foot injury.  But I don't view this entirely as a negative, as Newton was hampering his team with his horrible play.  In the first two games, he was 50-for-89 for 572 yards, but 0 touchdowns, and one interception.  On the ground, Newton was even worse, as he had 5 carries for minus-2 yards, and two fumbles.  His QB rating is 26.9, which ranks #29 in the league!  So, Ron Rivera's club will turn to Kyle Allen, a second-year QB out of the University of Houston.  Allen made one start last season, and was impressive in a 33-14 road victory over New Orleans.  Allen completed 16 of 27 passes for 228 yards, and accounted for three touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing).  That experience in front of a hostile crowd will stand him in good stead on Sunday, and I expect him to play extremely well.  The Panthers fall into several of my favorite NFL systems, with records of 135-63, 156-70, 107-43, 153-74, 63-25 and 40-19 ATS since 1980.  And the Panthers are also 39-18 ATS as a road underdog vs. foes that don't have a winning record, including 26-9 ATS vs. non-division opponents.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the St. Louis Cardinals.  The Cardinals go for a rare, four-game sweep this afternoon in Chicago.  And if the Cards are feeling sad about this series ending, they only have to wait a few days as they will get the Cubs again at home in the final series of the season next week.  But for today's game, the Cards have to get by the pitcher who has been arguably the best starter on the team over the past month or so.  In his last four starts, RHP Yu Darvish has allowed five earned runs on 16 hits in 26 innings with 41 strikeouts and only five walks.  The key for Darvish this afternoon just might be that this is an early game.  In nine starts during the day this season, Darvish is 3-1 with a 3.67 ERA, as opposed to 3-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 21 starts under the lights.  The Cards will go with RHP Miles Mikolas who has taken quite a big step backwards after his breakout season of 2018.  Mikolas is 9-14 with a 4.29 ERA in 31 starts after going 18-4 and 2.83 in 32 starts last year.  Despite their defeat yesterday, the Cubs are still 21-8 in the last 29 home meetings with the Cards.  Take Chicago.  MLB Elite Info Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the St. Louis Cardinals.  It's been a strange season for Cubs LHP Jose Quintana.  Despite his highest seasonal ERA (4.38) and one of the worst WHIPs of his career (1.34), Quintana has tied his career mark of 13 victories and has notched his highest win percentage ever (.619).  And in outings when he doesn't have his best stuff and leaves early with a no-decision, the Cubs often win anyway.  That was the case in Quintana's last start -- one of the worst of the season for him -- when the Cubs blew out the Pirates 16-6 despite him lasting less than three innings.  Quintana has some solid career numbers against the Cards.  In 10 starts against them he is 5-3 with a 3.81 ERA in 52 innings.  This season, Quintana is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in two starts vs. St. Louis.  In the month of June, the Cubs lost all of Quintana's first five starts.  But since the last start of that month, the club has been on a tear when he takes the mound, winning an incredible 11 of Quintana's last 14 starts.  And they are 9-0 in his last nine starts vs. teams from within Chicago's division.  NL Central Game of the Year on the Cubs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Southern Mississippi.  The Crimson Tide come into this Saturday game off 3 wins, but back to back point spread defeats in their last two games.  However, the good news for Alabama fans is that it is 13-1 ATS in the regular season since 1996 off back to back wins, if they lost against the point spread in each game.  And their only ATS loss over this 14-game stretch was by a mere point (65-31 vs. Arkansas, as a 35-point favorite, in 2018).  Additionally, the Golden Eagles are an awful 1-7 ATS as an underdog of 28+ points.  And Alabama also falls into a super 63-21 ATS system of mine which plays on certain big favorites to blow out their opponent.  Lay the points with Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the St. Louis Cardinals. This afternoon's start was supposed to belong to Jose Quintana, but the Cubs decided to push the veteran southpaw to Saturday.  Instead, they will go this afternoon with 27-year-old journeyman RH Alec Mills.  Mills was a 22nd round draft pick of the Royals in 2012 and spent a very short stint in Kansas City in 2016 before being traded to the Cubs in 2017.  Mills came up with the Cubs in 2018 and pitched well, albeit in a very limited role.  And this season it's more of the same as Mills didn't make an appearance until after the All Star Game, but he's been very effective as both a starter an reliever so far.  He will make his first start since July 22 this afternoon and it just happens to be in a bit of a "do-or-die" situation, as the Cubs have fallen four games behind the division leading Cardinals (and one game behind Milwaukee in the Wild Card race).  Mills has only made four starts in his career, but he has a 4.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and very solid 4.80 K:BB ratio leading off games.  Meanwhile, the Cards are just 6-21 in the last 27 meetings in Chicago.  Take the Cubs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Houston.  Tulane is off to its best start since 2013 (when it also began the season with a 2-1 record).  And the Green Wave's lone defeat this season was on the road, at #8 Auburn, 24-6.  In its other two games -- both at home -- the Green Wave thrashed Florida International, 42-14, as a 3-point favorite, and also demolished Missouri St., 58-6.  This game will also be played in New Orleans, at Yulman Stadium, where Tulane has won 10 of its last 14 games (7-4 ATS).  Faithful followers know I love playing on teams that can score, and especially when they're matched up against woeful defensive clubs.  Tulane is averaging 35.3 ppg, while Houston is surrendering 32.3 ppg, so I fully expect Willie Fritz's men to light up the scoreboard tonight.  Tulane is a super 7-0-1 ATS at home off a win by 28+ points.  And it's 25-12 ATS when priced between -3 and -7.5 points at home, or on a neutral field.  The favorite in this rivalry has gone 16-2 straight-up, and 14-4 ATS when priced at -3 or higher.  Lay the points with Tulane.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the San Francisco Giants.  If someone had told you that at the end of the regular season there would be a pitcher on the Red Sox staff that would be leading all others with close to 20 wins, an ERA in the mid-3's and better than a strikeout per inning and that pitcher was a left-hander, you would assume it would be Chris Sale.  But in fact all of those things are true but we're talking about Eduardo Rodriguez.  The 26-year-old southpaw broke out last season with 13 wins and a 3.82 ERA in 27 appearances (23 starts), but he's gone one better in 2019.  Rodriguez is 17-5 with a 3.64 ERA in 31 starts covering just over 185 innings.  He might not reach 20 victories, but he has a great shot at logging 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career (he has 189 coming into tonight).  Start number 32 will be an inter-league game and E-Rod has done very well in those throughout his career.  In 16 starts vs. the NL, he is 8-2 with a 3.28 ERA in 96 innings.  More impressive, the Red Sox are 15-1 in Rodriguez's last 16 inter-league starts.  Take Boston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Miami Marlins.  Having lost last night to this same Marlins club, the Arizona Diamondbacks are now "running on fumes" as far as their chances for the post-season are concerned.  Arizona is now six games behind in the race for the final NL Wild Card spot -- with three other teams in front of them.  So tonight is a "must-win" along with some help the D-Backs will need from some other teams as well.  It's times like this when you want a veteran on the mound and RHP Mike Leake is certainly that.  He may only be 11-11 on the season (and 2-3 with Arizona), but Leake knows how to win in pressure situations.  And the fact that he's facing the lowly Marlins, who are just 53-98 on the season, doesn't hurt.  Leake's overall numbers may not be pretty, but in his last three starts he is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 18 2/3 innings.  In his career, Leake has faced the Marlins eight times and he is 6-2 with a 2.74 ERA in just over 49 innings against them.  Despite their win last night, the Marlins are still just 1-5 in the last six meetings in Arizona.  Take the D-Backs.  MLB Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves.  There's no question it's been a dreadful season for Phillies starter/reliever Vince Velasquez.  The 27-year-old RHP is 6-7 with 4.95  ERA in 30 games, including 20 starts, covering a total of 103 2/3 innings.  With six victories, Velasquez is just three away from his career best of nine, but it is unlikely he will get there.  But despite the dismal numbers, the Phillies -- for whatever reason -- seem to show up when Velasquez takes the mound, which may be the only reason that -- with their backs against the wall -- the Phils keep putting the veteran out there every five days.  In June, the Phillies lost the last six games in which Velasquez pitched (three starts and three as a reliever).  But since the beginning of July, the Phils have been winning at a 73% rate when Velasquez -- now a full-time starter -- has taken the mound.  The Phillies are 8-3 in his last 11 starts going back to the end of June.  And in eight of those games they plated at least six runs. The Phillies are also 18-11 this season off of back-to-back losses.  Take Philadelphia as a big underdog on Tuesday.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Miami Marlins.  Each of Arizona LHP Robbie Ray's last two starts were cut short due to a lingering blister issue.  And unfortunately for the 27-year-old strikeout artist, both of those outings were somewhat ugly, especially the last one when he lasted just 2/3 of an inning (five runs on five hits).  The news coming out of Arizona is that there is no more blister concern.  And if there is one opponent which can help get Ray back on track, it is likely the Marlins.  He only has a career record of 2-3 against the Fish, but Ray owns a 2.43 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five starts covering just under 30 innings as well.  Ray has a 12-8 record and 4.30 ERA along with 208 strikeouts in 157 innings this season.  Meanwhile, Miami's .245 team batting average vs. southpaws this season is the second-worst such number in the National League (Chicago - .240).  Finally, the Marlins are 1-6 in their last seven road games vs. teams with a left-handed starter.  Take the Diamondbacks.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs opened up their season with a 40-26 win at Jacksonville, while Oakland upset Denver this past Monday night.  One of the things I love to do is go against teams that scored a lot of points in Week 1.  Indeed, since 1980, the majority of NFL teams that scored more than 38 points in Week 1 have scored less than 23 in Week 2.  So, it's not really a surprise that NFL teams have cashed just 28% in Week 2 as favorites of more than 4 points, if they scored more than 38 points in Week 1.  Last season, for example, the Saints scored 40 in Week 1, and were favored by 10 points vs. Cleveland in Week 2, but scored just 21, in a 3-point win, and failed to cover the point spread.  I look for KC's offense to be held in check by Jon Gruden's men.  Take Oakland + the points.  NFL High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Brewers were doing pretty well recently, despite losing reigning MVP Christian Yelich to a season-ending knee injury.  In fact, the Brew Crew had won seven games in a row between September 6th and 12th.  But the loss of Yelich should eventually be the Brewers' undoing this season.  The two teams split the first two games of this series, with the Cards winning 10-0 on Friday, before the Brewers came back last night, 5-2.  The Cards will turn to RH Michael Wacha in the series finale.  Wacha has struggled through much of the season, but has been pitching better since early August.  After his first start last month, Wacha was sporting a 5.54 ERA.  But since then, Wacha has allowed just nine earned runs over six starts covering 26 2/3 innings, lowering that ERA by more than half-a-run to 4.97.  He allowed two runs in four innings in his last start, but it was in Denver against the Rockies, so it was much better than it first seems.  The Cards are 8-2 in Wacha's last 10 home starts vs. teams with a winning record.  And they're 41-17 this season (+19 games on the money line) when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, including 24-9 at home.  Meanwhile, Milwaukee's a poor 13-23 this year as a road underdog of +150 or less, including 0-4 behind RHP Chase Anderson.  Take St. Louis.  MLB Elite Info Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers opened their 2019 campaign with an impressive 10-3 upset win at defending NFC North division champ, Chicago.  On Sunday, the Packers will try to move to 2-0 within the division, as it tackles its other big rival, Minnesota.  Unfortunately, the Packers have gone 0-6 with one Tie after a straight-up win since Dec. 17, 2017.  And they're 0-6-1 ATS off their last seven point spread victories.  Yikes!  Green Bay also has gone 0-5-1 straight-up, and 1-5 ATS vs. the Vikings since 2016 when not favored by 6+ points.  And single-digit home favorites have covered just 41% in Week 2 off an upset victory in Week 1.  Take Minnesota.  NFL Division Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Cornhuskers have yet to break into the point spread win column this year, as they're 0-2 ATS with losses to Colorado and South Alabama, while the Huskies are 2-0 ATS with point spread victories vs. Illinois State and Utah.  Last week, Nebraska was favored by 4 points on the road, but fell to the Buffaloes in overtime, 34-31.  It actually played a great first half, and broke out to a 17-0 lead.  QB Adrian Martinez was key in that first stanza, as he was 9-of-9 for 180 yards, and also ran for 45 yards on six carries.  Unfortunately, he fumbled the ball three times in that game -- and lost two of them -- which was a big part of the Cornhuskers' undoing.  I like Nebraska to rebound this evening, as in Game 3 of the season, College Football home favorites have covered 65% of the time off an upset loss, if they were winless ATS on the season, and their foe was perfect ATS.  That bodes well for Nebraska tonight.  As does the fact that it has covered 69.7% since 1980 off a SU/ATS loss the previous week, if its opponent was off a point spread win (including a perfect 8-0 ATS when priced from -9 to -18.5 points).  Lay the points with Nebraska.  NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Western Kentucky. This game will be played at a neutral site -- Nissan Stadium, in Nashville, Tennessee. Last week, we played on Western Kentucky as a touchdown underdog at Florida International, and were rewarded with a 20-14 upset victory. The Hilltoppers will now try to make it two-upsets-in-a-row tonight, and snap a 10-game losing streak to Louisville in the process. Last year, it started off well enough for WKU, as it broke out to a 14-0 lead. But it couldn't finish the job, and fell 20-17, as a 23.5-point underdog. The point spread is much lower in this game, so there's much less margin for error for the Hilltoppers. The Cardinals are 1-1 on the season, including a 35-17 defeat in Week 1 vs. Notre Dame. But Louisville was only outgained by 40 yards (423-383) in that game, and the Irish are ranked #7 in the country. Louisville did bounce back last Saturday with a 42-0 whitewash of Eastern Kentucky. And NCAA teams are 335-252-6 ATS away from home in the regular season off a shutout win, if matched up against an unrested foe. Lay the points with Scott Satterfield's Cardinals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Los Angeles Angels.  Until Blake Snell comes back from his injury -- he was scheduled to pitch for Durham on Thursday -- there's no question who the ace of the Rays' staff is.  Veteran RHP Charlie Morton has been just what the doctor ordered this season for Tampa.  For those who thought that Morton's numbers would fall off dramatically when he left Houston, they will need to think again.  Morton's numbers in 2019 are every bit as good as they were in his two seasons with the 'Stros -- maybe better -- and one more victory would tie his career high of 15.  His start tonight will also give him more than 30 for the first time in his career and he's already broken his career high in innings (176 1/3) and strikeouts (219).  Start number 31 comes against an Angels team he has faced eight time already in his career with a 3-1 record to show for it.  And talk about consistency.  Morton has 15 starts both at home and on the road and he has an identical 7-3 record in both cases.  The Rays are 12-4 in the last 16 meetings with the Angels.  Take Tampa Bay.  MLB Elite Info. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over North Carolina.  Interestingly, these two ACC Carolina rivals have not played since 2015.  The Tar Heels won (and covered) that game, which was the fourth straight meeting won, and fifth straight meeting covered, by the home team.  The Tar Heels are 2-0 after upsetting Miami-Fla last week, and South Carolina in Week 1.  Mack Brown's men will now play their first true road game of the season.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams off back to back upset wins to start a season have cashed just 37% since 1980.  Even worse:  undefeated teams have cashed just 28% since 2001 in Game 3 of the season, if they are off an upset win, and now playing their first road game of the year.  With North Carolina entering this game on a 7-game road losing streak, we'll lay the small number with Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Baltimore Orioles.  The last time we saw veteran southpaw Rich Hill take the mound for the Dodgers was on June 19 in Los Angeles against the Giants.  Hill was on a roll when he took the mound that day, but he had to leave after just one inning with a flexor strain and has not pitched for the Dodgers since.  He'll make his return tonight in Baltimore against the Orioles and the Dodgers are certainly hoping they can add him to the combination of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Walker Buehler, and Clayton Kershaw in the rotation for the post-season.  But first things first.  Hill isn't expected to go too long tonight, but he probably couldn't have hand-picked a better spot to make his return in as he will face an Orioles team which is just 47-98 on the season.  Despite the fact that Hill has only made 10 starts on the season, his numbers are pretty impressive -- 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 53 innings.  And the Dodgers are 7-3 in those 10 starts.  The Orioles are 5-17 in their last 22 inter-league home games.  Take Los Angeles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the San Diego Padres.  It's been a weird season for Cubs veteran RHP Yu Darvish.  Darvish's overall numbers do not inspire a high level of confidence -- 5-6 with a 4.12 ERA in 28 starts and leading the league in both HRs allowed and hit-by-pitches.  But Darvish is also a strikeout machine and he's only allowed 125 hits in 157 1/3 innings pitched.  While the Cubs' struggles on the road this season have been well documented by now, those struggles have not extended to Darvish.  In 15 starts away from the North Side of Chicago, Darvish is 3-3 with a 3.30 ERA vs. 2-3 and 5.14 in 13 starts at Wrigley Field.  And this afternoon's game isn't just on the road, but it happens to be at one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball.  The daytime aspect of this start is important as well.  In 48 career afternoon outings, Darvish is 18-13 (.581) with a 3.13 ERA.  In 119 starts under the lights, he is 44-38 (.537) with a 3.77 ERA.  The Pads will go with RHP Dinelson Lamet (2-4; 3.95 in 11 starts) and they are a horrid 0-9 in his last nine starts here at home.  Take the Cubs.

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Colorado Rockies.  It's true that Miles Mikolas' 2019 numbers (8-13 with a 4.25 ERA in 29 starts) are a far cry from the breakout season he had last year when he went 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA.  But the St. Louis Cardinals' RHP is having a much better second half of the season (3-4 with a 3.82 ERA in 11 starts) than he did prior to the All Star Break (5-9 with a 4.53 ERA).  Mikolas' story is even better when we look at his last three starts as the 31-year-old is 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with 11 hits, 22 strikeouts and four walks in 17 innings.  And the Cardinals are 2-1 in those starts -- two of which were on the road.  The Rockies will go with 29-year-old journeyman RHP Tim Melville who is in his third season in the Majors -- first with Colorado.  His last home start was on August 31 against the lowly Pirates and Melville only lasted two innings in that one, allowing five runs on seven hits.  Finally, the Cards are 43-19 in the last 62 meetings vs. Colorado.  Take St. Louis.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Minnesota Twins.  For almost seven innings on Tuesday night there was a good old pitchers' duel going on at Target Field between starters Jose Berrios and Anibal Sanchez.  The Twins finally broke it open in the seventh and eighth innings and took a 5-0 victory into their locker room when all was said and done.  We, of course, were happy with that result, as we had Minnesota, and won for the 17th time in our last 18 baseball releases.  Tonight, though, we will switch gears and take Washington (which is our choice at 18-1 odds to win the World Series).  In Game 2 of this series, RH Stephen Strasburg goes in his 30th start of the season.  The 30-year-old is having arguably the best season of his career.  His 16 wins is already a career-high, he has a 4.72 K:BB ratio, and he is on track to break his career season strikeout mark of 242 (he has 222 coming into tonight).  And as far as this match-up is concerned, Strasburg is an inter-league machine, going 11-3 with a 3.14 ERA in 21 starts against the AL covering 131 2/3 innings.  The Nationals are also 8-0 in Strasburg's last eight inter-league starts and 5-0 in his last five vs. AL Central teams.  Take Washington.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Minnesota Twins.  For almost seven innings on Tuesday night there was a good old pitchers' duel going on at Target Field between starters Jose Berrios and Anibal Sanchez.  The Twins finally broke it open in the seventh and eighth innings and took a 5-0 victory into their locker room when all was said and done.  We, of course, were happy with that result, as we had Minnesota, and won for the 17th time in our last 18 baseball releases.  Tonight, though, we will switch gears and take Washington (which is our choice at 18-1 odds to win the World Series).  In Game 2 of this series, RH Stephen Strasburg goes in his 30th start of the season.  The 30-year-old is having arguably the best season of his career.  His 16 wins is already a career-high, he has a 4.72 K:BB ratio, and he is on track to break his career season strikeout mark of 242 (he has 222 coming into tonight).  And as far as this match-up is concerned, Strasburg is an inter-league machine, going 11-3 with a 3.14 ERA in 21 starts against the AL covering 131 2/3 innings.  The Nationals are also 8-0 in Strasburg's last eight inter-league starts and 5-0 in his last five vs. AL Central teams.  Take Washington.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the New York Mets.  The D-Backs and Mets are battling for an NL Wild Card spot and are separated in that regard by just a half-game, so this game is critical for both teams.  Diamondbacks RH starter Robbie Ray is having another good season.  The 27-year-old is putting up an ERA around four runs, double-digit wins, and is racking up a ton of strikeouts in the process.  Ray hasn't reached the level of the elite strikeout pitchers in the league, but that day may be coming soon as the D-Backs fire-baller enters his prime.  Ray was putting up those big strikeout numbers again in his last start in Cincinnati against the Reds when he had to leave the game after just 4 1/3 innings due to a blister on his throwing hand.  He had a successful bullpen session the other day so Ray should be good to go tonight against the Mets in a very important game.  The D-Backs are 8-0 in Ray's last eight road starts vs. teams with a winning record, while the Mets are 1-7 in their last eight games vs. teams with a left-handed starter.  Take Arizona.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Washington Nationals.  Tonight, the Nationals will visit Minneapolis for the first time since 2008 and play a game at Target Field for the first time ever (Target opened in 2010). This is a series that is critical to both teams as the Twins try to stay ahead of the pesky Indians in the AL Central and the Nationals try to secure an NL Wild Card position (I actually like the Nationals to win the World Series, and recently released them at 18-1 odds to win the title).  The first of the three games will feature RHPs Anibal Sanchez of the Nats and Jose Berrios of the Twins.  Berrios has had a bit of a rough patch lately, but three of his last four starts have been on the road and he is back home tonight for this -- his 29th start of the season.  Berrios has a 3.62 ERA at Target Field (12 starts) and a 3.90 ERA elsewhere (16 starts).  The home team has been very dominant in this series, taking nine of the last 10 meetings going back to June of 2007.  The Twins are also 5-1 in their last 6 inter-league home games vs.teams with a right-handed starter.  Take Minnesota.  MLB Elite Info Winner!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the San Diego Padres.  The Cubs need their players to step up in the final month of the season -- none more-so than veteran RHP Kyle Hendricks.  Hendricks has had a winning record in each of the previous five seasons he's been in the league (including 14 victories in 2018).  But so far in 2019, the 29-year-old is just 9-9 even though he has a solid 3.39 ERA in his 26 starts.  Hendricks gave up just one earned run over six innings last Monday vs. the Mariners.  And that bodes well for him tonight, as the Cubs are 17-6 in Hendricks' last 23 starts following a Quality Start in his last outing.  More good news is that, in four previous starts here at Petco Park, Hendricks is 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 25 innings.  And overall, Hendricks is 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA in nine starts vs. the Pads covering just over 57 innings.  In general, the Cubs do very well in San Diego, having won eight of the last 11 meetings here going back to May of 2015.  Finally, the Padres are 4-11 in their last 15 home games vs. teams with a winning record.  Take Chicago.  MLB Game of the Week.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  After winning the first game of their critical three-game series against the Phillies on Friday, the Mets proceeded to lose big on Saturday and Sunday.  So now New York finds itself four games behind in the race for the NL Wild Card (catching the Braves atop the Division is out of the question at this point).  The Mets are up to their tricks of 2018 when ace Jacob deGrom takes the mound.  Namely, they don't give him much run support even when he pitches lights out -- which is most of the time.  Perhaps a start outside of the Division against the Diamondbacks will light a fire under the offense tonight.  The good news is that in three previous starts against Arizona, deGrom has not only pitched very well -- a 1.74 ERA in 20 2/3 innings -- but he is 2-0.  His third start against them was this past June and the Mets lost that one by one run, so this a revenge situation for deGrom and the team tonight.  The D-Backs will go with RHP Merrill Kelly (10-13; 4.69) and they are 1-5 in Kelly's last six road starts.  Take the Mets.  Mound Mismatch Massacre!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Pittsburgh.  These two teams met last season, and we had a huge play on the Steelers as a 3-point home underdog.  Pittsburgh played without Le'Veon Bell but still won that game, 17-10.  But that game was in the Steel City.  This Sunday night's game is in Foxborough, where the Patriots have never lost to Pittsburgh with Tom Brady at QB (Pittsburgh did win in 2008, but Matt Cassel was New England's QB that day).  With Brady under center, New England has gone 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS vs. the Steelers.  Even better:  Bill Belichick's Patriots have cashed 76.4% ATS when playing with revenge from an upset defeat, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when priced from -4.5 to -8.5 points.  And defending Super Bowl champs have cashed 85% since 1983 in Week 1 when they opened the season at home, and weren't favored by 6.5 (or more) points.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants.  Originally signed as a 16-year-old, Julio Urias was considered by some to perhaps be the heir-apparent to the veteran aces of the Dodgers staff (Kershaw, Greinke, Hill, etc.).  He made his Major League debut at age 19 and now the young RHP has more MLB experience under his belt than almost any other 23-year-old out there.  But Urias hasn't become the full-time starter that many envisioned as major shoulder surgery last season derailed his advancement significantly.  But that doesn't mean Urias hasn't found an important role on the L.A. staff.  The young Mexican has become a very effective middle reliever and short-stint "opener" for the Dodgers.  In his last 12 appearances going back to June 20, the Dodgers are 9-3, and three of those appearances have been starts lasting three innings, and they are 3-0 in those.  Despite their loss last night, the Dodgers are still 50-16 in their last 66 home games.  Take Los Angeles. Mound Mismatch Massacre! As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Indianapolis.  The Chargers were a darling among bettors last season, and were widely touted, at the end of the regular season, to reach the Super Bowl from the AFC.  I wasn't as optimistic, as it's virtually impossible to win an NFL Championship as a Wild Card team.  Indeed, I had a big play against the Chargers when they went into New England in the quarter-finals, and was rewarded with an easy 41-28 win.  This season, I believe the Chargers will be one of the league's top teams again.  Unfortunately, they reside in a division with the equally-talented Kansas City Chiefs, so they might be a Wild Card entry once again.  Here, though, in the opening game of the season, they are a decided favorite vs. an Andrew Luck-less Colts team which will now be hard-pressed to earn a 2nd consecutive AFC South division title.  The Chargers have run roughshod over AFC South division foes over the years, as they're 29-5-1 ATS since 2002, including 7-2 ATS vs. the Colts.  And, going back further, one finds that the Chargers are 19-7 ATS vs. the Colts since 1981.  It's true that Los Angeles has stumbled out of the gate with losses in Week 1 each of the previous three seasons.  But they were road underdogs in two of those three games.  For this contest, they're a touchdown favorite.  And NFL teams favored between 6 and 7 points in Week 1, that won a Playoff game the previous season, have gone 12-0 straight-up since 2006, and 30-4 straight-up since 1981.  The Chargers also fall into several of my best Week 1 angles that are 57-28, 75-36 and 72-44 ATS since 1980.  Lay the points with Philip Rivers & Co.  NFL Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Minnesota Twins.  Mike Clevinger has been the Indians' best starter this season and the team will likely go into the post-season with the 28-year-old RH as the leader of its rotation.  Clevinger has been on quite a roll since June, allowing more than two runs on just two occasions in his last 12 starts going back to his July 3 outing against the Royals.  And in eight of those 12 starts, Clevinger has allowed one run or less.  Not surprisingly, the Tribe has gone 9-3 in those dozen outings.  More importantly for this afternoon is the fact that Clevinger has faced the first-place Twins on two occasions this season and has given up just three earned runs on seven hits in 12 innings combined in those two starts.  The road team is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings of these teams going back to June 6 of this season, and they are also 6-0 in his last six road starts.  Finally, the Indians are 23-6 in Clevinger's last 29 starts vs. teams from the AL Central.   Take Cleveland.  MLB Road Warrior Winner!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:20 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Atlanta Braves.  The Nats came into this series in Atlanta hoping -- and needing -- at least two victories out of the four games.  That's not going to happen now as the Braves have taken each of the first three games coming into this afternoon's finale.  Today will feature each of these two teams' aces as RHPs Mike Soroka of the Braves and Max Scherzer of the Nationals take the hill.  Scherzer hasn't won a game since his first start in July -- five starts ago.  But the good news is that , despite the fact that he hasn't been racking up the individual stats, Scherzer's team has been winning the lion's share of his starts.  In fact the Nationals are 10-1 in Scherzer's last 11 outings.  Certainly, Soroka's had a great season -- one which should get him some Cy Young consideration.  But he's done much better on the road (6-1; 1.44 ERA in 14 starts) than he has at home (5-2; 4.02 in 11).  And the Nats are 38-16 in Scherzer's last 54 road starts.  Take Washington.  5* MLB Game of the Month!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Tennessee.  The Cleveland Browns enter 2019 on an 11-season losing streak.  Since 2008, they've gone 45-130-1 straight-up, and 76-95-5 ATS!  The good news, though, for those on Lake Erie is that head coach Hue Jackson was fired midway through last season.  Freddie Kitchens was promoted to offensive coordinator for the season's final eight games.  And then he was named head coach 13 days after the season ended (ex-Tampa Bay offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, will take over as OC for the Browns).  This season, most observers believe the Browns will battle it out with Pittsburgh for the AFC Central division title (both teams are projected to win nine games), and I actually would give the edge to Cleveland in that race.  Notwithstanding Cleveland's poor history since 2008, it's still hard to make a case for Tennessee away from home.  Indeed, the Titans have routinely burned money on the road since 2013, as they're 15-29-1 ATS outside The Volunteer State, including 0-2 ATS vs. these Browns.  Meanwhile, Cleveland falls into several strong angles of mine, with records of 66-33, 61-21, 83-47, 81-47 and 65-26 ATS.  A lot of folks are still in a "wait-and-see" mode with Cleveland, after it added Odell Beckham, Jr. in the offseason to a young, and talented corps of offensive players (e.g., Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb).  I'm not waiting.  I'm "all in" right now.  Lay the points with Cleveland.  NFL Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.       

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Last year, the Rams were my preseason pick (at 10-1 odds) to win the Super Bowl.  I also had the New England Patriots at 5-2 odds to win the AFC.  So, I came very close to being perfect on my preseason predictions.  This year, I went with the Saints (at 10-1 odds) as my preseason Super Bowl pick.  One reason I ultimately decided to not go with the Rams this season is that the loser of the Super Bowl has often struggled the following season.  We saw that last season with Atlanta, which had a losing record the year after it lost the Super Bowl, in overtime, to New England.  Another reason is that the Rams have a somewhat difficult non-division schedule this season, as they have to play road games at Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Atlanta and this game vs. the Panthers.  Last season, they had a relatively easy non-division road schedule, including games against the Raiders, Lions and Broncos.  The Panthers are 23-11 ATS at home vs. non-division foes (including 12-2 ATS when not favored by 3+ points), and they're also 6-2 ATS their last eight as a home underdog.  And they're 8-3 SU and 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 meetings vs. the Rams.  Finally, the Rams fall into negative 2-22 and 6-30 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams in competitively-priced games.  Take Carolina.  NFL High Roller! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Kansas City.  Two years ago, the Jaguars reached the AFC Championship game, and led New England with less than 3 minutes to go before succumbing to defeat, 24-20.  Last season, RB Leonard Fournette went down early with an injury, and the Jaguars' season unraveled from there.  This season, Fournette is healthy, and the Jaguars will also have a better signal caller, as Nick Foles has taken over the reins at QB.  The defense ranked #4 last season in scoring defense, and will once again be fierce, as most of last year's starters are returning.  And the Jaguars also drafted Josh Allen, who was the 2018 Defensive Player of the Year in College Football.  These two teams met last season at Arrowhead Stadium.  Yes, Kansas City won that home game, 30-14.  But it was not a good day for QB Patrick Mahomes.  He was 22 of 38 for 313 yards, and failed to complete a touchdown pass.  He also threw two interceptions, and had the lowest passer rating of his career in that game.  Jacksonville allowed an average of just 195 passing yards per game last season, and I expect it to once again have success vs. Mahomes.  Meanwhile, with Foles and Fournette on the field, Jacksonville should be able to move the ball very well vs. KC's lackluster defense.  Take the home underdog Jaguars.  NFL Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs + the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met last season in Minneapolis, and the Gophers survived to win 21-14, after a trick play went awry in the game's final moments.  The Bulldogs were on Minnesota's 4-yard line and attempted to tie the score with a halfback pass to their tight end, who was stationed in the back of the end zone. Unfortunately, Josh Hokit didn't get enough on his throw, and it was intercepted by Minny's Antoine Winfield, Jr.  We will play on the Bulldogs as a home underdog in this revenge game, as Big 10 teams have been dreadful as non-conference single-digit road favorites vs. revenge-minded foes.  Since 1984 they've covered just 36% of the time.  Take Fresno + the points.  NCAA Payback Payday!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants.  The Dodgers' pipeline runs deep -- both with offensive players and pitchers.  One of those pitchers who arrived -- before rosters expanded -- is 25-year-old RH Tony Gonsolin.  Gonsolin is proof of just how deep that pipeline is.  Just a ninth round draft pick in the 2016 amateur draft, Gonsolin has been outstanding in his rookie campaign.  In six appearances -- five starts -- Gonsolin is 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 28 innings.  Start number six will come tonight against a team he has yet to face.  That shouldn't matter too much as Gonsolin will be pitching once again in his home park where he has been dominant.  In two starts here at Dodger Stadium, Gonsolin is 2-0 with an incredible 0.82 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in 11 innings.  The Giants will go with a RH rookie of their own as 26 year-old Tyler Beede goes to the mound for the 21st time this season (19th start).  Things haven't gone as smoothly for Beede who is 3-9 with a 5.61 ERA in 96 1/3 innings.  The Giants are also 0-8 in Beede's last eight starts.  Take L.A.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over Detroit.  Oakland blew a 4-0 lead last night, and lost, 5-4, in 11 innings.  But that was a rare victory for Detroit this season.  Indeed, it's an awful 33-82 (minus 25 games on the money line) as an underdog this season.  Meanwhile, the A's have been spectacular as a home favorite, as it's gone 71-30 (+26 games on the money line, including 39-13 (+16 games on the money line), when priced -150 or higher.  Jordan Zimmermann will get the start for Detroit, and he's 1-9 in his 10 decisions this season.  And Detroit's won just 2 of his last 17 starts!  That doesn't bode well against the A's Chris Bassitt, who is 9-5 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.  Take Oakland.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Nevada.  Last week, Oregon lost, 27-21, to Auburn, while Nevada upset Purdue, 34-31, as an 11-point underdog.  I love the Ducks to bounce back on Saturday, as College Football teams favored by more than 15 points have covered 66.1% of non-conference games since 1980, if they were off a loss to a non-conference foe, and their current opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Ducks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over LSU.  This is the first match-up of this College Football season which features two teams ranked among the Top 10.  LSU is ranked #6, while Texas is #9 in both the AP and the Coaches Poll.  This will be just the 6th time since 1994 that the Longhorns have been installed as a home underdog vs. a non-conference foe.  And Texas was a perfect 5-0 ATS in those five other games.  The Longhorns opened their season with a 45-14 blowout win over Louisiana Tech, as a 19-point favorite.  That also bodes well for Texas on Saturday night, as home underdogs have cashed 61% since 1980 off a SU/ATS win by 20+ points to open the season.  Finally, Longhorns head coach Tom Herman has gone 13-2-1 ATS as an underdog in his stints with Houston and Texas, including 6-0-1 ATS when priced as an underdog of +7 or less points.  Take Texas.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Indians.  Twins' RHP Jake Odorizzi has already set a personal high for victories, having won 14 times this season in 27 starts heading into his outing this evening.  None of those 27 has been any more important to the Twins than this one as Minnesota hopes to put away the pesky Indians and take home its first Division Title since 2010.  The Twins lost a tough one in extra innings on Friday, and now they must re-group and come out firing.  And firing is something this offense can definitely do.  The Twins have already set the Major League record for home runs in a season, having passed the 267 number that the Yankees set the record with in 2018 -- and we still have an entire month to go.  There's no doubt that Odorizzi -- and other Twins starters -- have enjoyed the benefits of that offensive output.  But Odorizzi has pitched very well regardless with a 3.61 ERA that is the second-best number he's put up in his eight seasons in the Majors.  Despite its win on Friday, the Tribe is just 1-6 in its last seven games vs. winning teams.  Take the Twins.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over Wyoming.  Last week, the Cowboys shocked Missouri, 37-31, as a 15.5-point home underdog.  Unfortunately, that sets them up for a big letdown on the road this week.  Indeed, since 1984, teams off an upset win to kick off a season have covered just 19.04% in Week 2, if they were matched up against a non-conference foe off a SU/ATS loss.  That doesn't bode well for Wyoming in San Marcos on Saturday night.  Nor does the fact that Wyoming has covered just 23% as a non-conference road favorite (or PK) over the last 35 seasons.  Take Texas State + the points.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Florida International.  Both of these teams lost their season openers.  The Panthers were trounced, 42-14, at Tulane, as a 3-point underdog.  In contrast, the Hilltoppers were favored by 10 points last week against Central Arkansas.  But they were upset, 35-28.  And that continued a long-term trend in Western Kentucky games where the underdog has cashed 72 of 112 games (64.2% ATS).  Even better:  if the underdog was playing an opponent which wasn't off a win, then our 72-40 stat improves to 35-9 ATS, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when priced from +7 to +11.5 points.  Take the Hilltoppers + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Purdue.  We played against Vanderbilt last week, and were rewarded with a 30-6 Georgia win (and cover).  But this Saturday, we'll take the points with Derek Mason's men.  Purdue also lost last Saturday.  But unlike Vandy, which was a 23-point underdog, Purdue was favored by double-digits.  Yet, it was upset, 34-31, by a Nevada team which only returned 11 starters from last season.  Turnovers were Purdue's major problem last week, as it coughed up the ball five times!  But even though that's unlikely to happen again this week, I still don't believe the Boilermakers will bounce back.  Indeed, dating back to 2005, College teams off an upset loss, as a favorite of -6 (or more) points in Week 1, have covered just 27.5 percent in Week 2 (including 21.8% vs. non-conference foes).  Meanwhile, SEC teams, off a loss to a conference rival, have covered 62% since 1983 as underdogs of +3 (or more) points in non-conference games.  Take the points with Vandy.  NCAA High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Akron Zips + the points over UAB.  Akron was blown out, 42-3, at Illinois last weekend, while UAB hung on to defeat Alabama State, 24-19.  The Zips look to bounce back off that loss and the good news is that they're back at InfoCision Stadium to play their home opener.  Since 1980, home underdogs of less than 14 points have cashed 65 percent if they scored less than 7 points in their season opener!  Also, UAB has been awful as a single-digit road favorite, as it's cashed just 4 of 19 games.  I look for Akron to pull the upset in new head coach Tom Arth's first game at home.  Take the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs.  After a first half in which he went 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 18 starts, Brewers RHP Zach Davies has struggled since.  But if the 26-year-old can have a strong month of September to help his team get to the playoffs, then all of those struggles will be forgotten.  And that's what Davies did last season, when he posted his best ERA of 2018 (3.91) over five starts in the final month.  His first start of this September is huge as the Cubs are in town for a 4-game set and they already drew first blood, beating the Brew Crew on Thursday, 10-5.  Last season, Davies compiled a very strong 2.16 ERA in three starts vs. Chicago.  This evening, the Cubs will go with LHP Cole Hamels in his 24th start of the season.  Although he's been great at Wrigley (3-1 with a 2.66 ERA in 12 starts), Hamels has struggled in 2019 on the road.  In 11 starts away from home, he is 4-4 with a 5.16 ERA.  These two teams also met last weekend, and Davies blanked the Cubs over 4 2/3 innings last Saturday in Chicago.  Finally, in Davies' career, when working on an extra day or two of rest, his teams have gone 27-18 (+11 games on the money line).  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners.  After a rare loss on Tuesday, the Astros got a day off yesterday before playing eight straight against Division Opponents (four each against the Mariners and A's).  Game 1 of the Mariners series kicks off tonight with Wade Miley going to the hill for the 'Stros.  You can say what you want about the dominance of Houston's "big three" -- Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and recently-acquired Zack Greinke.  But when they needed a veteran LH in their rotation after not re-signing Dallas Keuchel, the Houston front office turned to Miley for a very affordable 1-year contract ($4.5 M).  Miley has paid off big, proving more valuable to his team than many other southpaws out there making three times as much money.  In 28 starts, Miley is 13-4 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, making him perhaps the biggest veteran value in baseball this season.  The Astros are also 20-8 in his starts.  This will be his fifth Houston start against the M's and he is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA against them coming in.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago White Sox.  It's hard to imagine anyone other than one of the Houston Astros aces -- Verlander or Cole -- winning the AL Cy Young at this point, but the Indians' RH starter Shane Bieber has to at least be part of the conversation.  The 24-year-old is only in his second season and he already has an All Star MVP trophy to his credit.  But most impressively, Bieber has stepped up in the wake of the losses of Corey Kluber (injury), Carlos Carrasco (cancer), and Trevor Bauer (trade) to become the ace of the Cleveland staff, and the youngster hasn't let the pressure get to him.  Bieber is 12-7 with 3.27 ERA in 29 appearances (including 28 starts) and he leads the league with three complete games (two of those are shutouts).  Bieber has been on a tear lately, allowing two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts going back to July 24.  Despite their victory on Tuesday, the White Sox are just 15-29 in the last 44 meetings.  The Tribe is also 11-3 in Bieber's last 14 starts following a team loss in its previous game.  Take Cleveland.  MLB High Roller Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.