Sports Picks & Predictions

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Miami.  We played on the Heat on Friday, and easily got the $$$$ when they upset the league's best team (Utah), as a 6.5-point home underdog.  But NBA favorites of -3.5 points (or more) generally have letdowns after upsetting .801 (or better) teams as a home dog of +3.5 (or more) points, when matched up against a foe off a loss, as our favorites are 0-16-1 ATS their last 17.  With Atlanta, indeed, in off a loss to Oklahoma City, we'll take the Hawks + the points on Sunday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Butler Bulldogs + the points over Villanova.  The Bulldogs upset Seton Hall, 61-52, as an 8-point home underdog in their last game.  Now, they will set their sights on #8-ranked Villanova.  The Wildcats are once again having a great season, as they're 15-3, including 10-2 in Big East play.  But this will be a difficult spot for Villanova -- even though Butler's just 7-11 in Conference play -- as it's Butler's final home game of the season.  And Big East teams off a win in their previous game have cashed 63.3% in their final home game of the season, including 86% vs. foes off back to back wins.  Moreover, when playing their final home game of the season, the Bulldogs have won 22 of their last 25 straight-up (14-10 ATS).  Finally, it's worth noting that Butler plays this game with revenge from a 19-point loss to the Wildcats in December.  And NCAA home teams with losing conference records, but strong home courts, have gone 299-219-15 ATS when playing with revenge from a 15-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season, including 65-31-2 ATS if it was their final home game of the season!   Take Butler.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Montreal Canadiens over Winnipeg.  The Jets handed interim Canadiens coach, Dominique Ducharme, a loss in his debut behind the bench.  But we'll look for Montreal to get him his first win tonight.  Winnipeg's 6-3 win on Thursday was its third straight win.  But the Jets are a woeful 1-7 at home off 3+ wins.  And they're 4-13 after scoring more than 4 goals in their previous game.   Meanwhile, Montreal is 19-10 when playing with revenge from a loss where it gave up 5+ goals, and 25-17 (+11 games on the moneyline) off 3 straight road losses.  Take the Canadiens.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Nuggets come into tonight's game off an upset loss at home to the Wizards.  And Denver was favored by 8 points in that game.  Meanwhile, the Thunder upset the Hawks, 118-109, here last night.  Unfortunately for OKC, unrested, sub-.500 NBA home dogs have covered just 29.4% over the last 31 seasons against rested, winning teams, if our road team was off an upset loss in a game where it was favored by more than five points.  The Nuggets will bounce back strong tonight.  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Washington.  It's true that Minnesota's riding a 6-game SU/ATS losing streak.  But upon close scrutiny, it's clear the Timberwolves are not playing all that poorly.  Indeed, a review of these six games reveals that they failed to cover by 2 points against the Lakers; by a half-point against the Pacers; by 2.5 points against the Raptors; by 1 point against the Knicks; and by 2.5 points against the Bulls.  They played just one horrible game among these six, and that was when the Bucks blew them out by 27 as a 10-point favorite.  But Milwaukee's among the most offensively-explosive teams in the league, so that's hardly unexpected.  We'll look for Minnesota to break through tonight vs. a Washington team off an upset win over the Nuggets as an 8-point underdog.  Unfortunately, the Wizards now fall into a negative 124-206 ATS system of mine that goes against certain .400 (or worse) teams off upset wins.  Even better:  they're 6-26 ATS at home off a road win, if they were not favored by more than three points inthat road game.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Bradley Braves + the points over Drake.  The Bulldogs bested Bradley yesterday, 80-71, and the two teams will conclude their regular season this evening.  We were 7-1-1 yesterday, but one of the two games we didn't win was on Bradley.  (The Braves either pushed or lost, depending on one's number (the line opened at +9 and closed at +8.5)).   So, Drake has now won 5 in a row following its 27-point loss to Loyola-Chicago.  It also was Bradley's 4th straight loss.  We'll come right back with the Braves as a home underdog in their final home game of the season.  Missouri Valley teams with a .316 (or better) win percentage are 174-115 ATS on a 3-game ATS losing streak, if their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.   And Drake has covered just 1 of 14 games against losing teams when Drake was playing its final road game of the regular season.  Take Bradley + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones over TCU.  It's true that Iowa State is just 2-17 this season.  But when you look through the raw wins and losses, and instead look to the ATS results, TCU has been playing worse, of late, than Iowa State.  We actually had a huge play on the Cyclones in their last game, and they almost pulled the upset over #2-ranked Baylor, as a 24-point underdog.  Iowa State led for most of the game, but Baylor fought back to assume the lead with a few minutes to play, and won 77-72.  Still, that was the 5th time the Cyclones covered in their previous eight games.  And that compares favorably to TCU's recent 3-7 ATS stretch (including 0-4 ATS its last four).  These two teams met two-and-a-half weeks ago in Fort Worth, and the Horned Frogs narrowly escaped with a 79-76 victory.  I look for Iowa State to avenge that defeat, as the Cyclones are a solid 45-26 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 21-7 ATS vs. an opponent off a SU loss.  Take the Cyclones.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Valparaiso Crusaders + the points over Indiana State.  These two teams met last night, here in Valparaiso, and the Sycamores won their third straight game, 58-43, as a 1-point road underdog.  Even better for their friends "in Vegas" was the fact it extended their ATS win streak to 7-0-1 ATS their last eight.  For this game, the oddsmakers have now installed Indiana State as the favorite, rather than Valpo.  I think it's an overreaction, and we will go against the Sycamores tonight, as they fall into a negative 79-122 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams on winning streaks.  Additionally, the Crusaders are 20-10 ATS off a loss when playing with revenge from a defeat earlier in the season.  And Indiana State has covered just 40 of 99 games away from home vs. foes playing with revenge from a previous defeat in the season.  Take Valparaiso.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos + the points over Toledo.  The Rockets enter this game off back to back SU/ATS wins, including an upset victory at Buffalo their last time on the court.  Toledo's now 18-6 on the season, and it also sits atop the MAC standings with a 13-3 record.  But off its upset win over the Bulls (who were 8-4 in MAC play going into the game), I look for a letdown at home on Saturday against a 4-14 Western Michigan squad.  For technical support, consider that .636 (or better) Mid American Conference teams are an awful 12-47 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 points, if they're off an upset road win, and matched up against a .575 (or worse) conference foe.  Grab the double-digits with the Broncos.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Little Rock Trojans over Louisiana Lafayette.  The Trojans lost for the 7th straight time last night, when Lafayette upset them, 66-61.  Even worse for those who have bet on the Trojans is that they've now also lost seven straight against the spread.  But this is the Trojans' final home game of the season, and NCAA teams have covered 63% of their final home games the past 31 seasons, if they were off a home SU/ATS loss (and 3 SU/ATS losses overall), and their opponent was off a win.  Look for Little Rock to get back into the win column today.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles minus the points over Western Illinois.  Oral Roberts will look to rebound today off its 86-84 loss at South Dakota.  And it's been installed as a big home favorite vs. a Leathernecks squad off five straight wins (and six straight covers).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab the points with red-hot Western Illinois, especially since Oral Roberts is a pedestrian 11-10 this season.  But be careful, as teams off 5+ wins are 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS as double-digit underdogs in the regular season against .560 (or worse) opponents.  Additionally, the Leathernecks fall into negative 115-179 and 85-142 ATS systems of mine based on their win streak.  Take the Golden Eagles minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Texas.  This is a brutal spot for the Longhorns.  Texas Tech comes into this game off three SU/ATS losses, including an upset defeat in Stillwater vs. the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Monday.  But over the past 31 years, Big 12 (or Big 8) Conference teams have cashed 72.2% at home off 3 SU/ATS losses, if they were upset in their previous game, and not getting more than three points in their current game.  Lay the points with the Red Raiders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Arizona Coyotes.  Picked as the favorites to win the Stanley Cup by many this year (including myself), the start of the NHL season hasn't gone exactly as planned for the Avalanche.  Their 9-6-1 record is decent but nowhere near as dominant as the talent on the roster would suggest.  And the 6-2 drubbing handed to them by the Wild in their last game was humbling to say the least.  So perhaps a match-up tonight with the Coyotes -- the first since they eliminated Arizona in the playoffs last August -- will be just what the doctor ordered.  The result of that playoff series was a four games to one thrashing by the Avs.  And they won the last two by identical 7-1 routs.  And perhaps more important is how the Avs tend to bounce back strong after suffering a rout of their own, going 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss by three or more goals.  Arizona beat Anaheim 4-3 in a shootout on Wednesday but the Coyotes are a poor 9-25 (-16 games on the money line) in their last 34 following a one-goal victory.  Take Colorado.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits minus the points over Missouri-Kansas City.  The Kangaroos are on a 5-game win streak.  But each of those games was at home; tonight's game is in Brookings, where the Jackrabbits rarely lose.  They've won 56 of their last 58 home games, straight-up.  And they are also exceptional against the spread at home, including 73-39 ATS as a favorite.  The Kangaroos fall into a negative 140-223 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams on the road off 5+ ATS wins.  Lay the points with South Dakota State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over Utah.  The Heat are getting healthier, as PG Goran Dragic returned to the lineup two nights ago.  Miami won and covered its fourth straight game, and is 8-3 SU its last 11.  Meanwhile, Utah blew out the Lakers by 25, as an 8.5-point favorite in its last game.  Unfortunately for the Jazz, road favorites have covered just 40% the past 31 years after covering by 10+ points in their previous game, and now playing an opponent off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Take Miami + the big number.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings over Detroit.  After last night's loss at New York, the Kings' losing streak has now reached 9 games.  We'll take Luke Walton's men tonight, as NBA teams on 9-game (or worse) losing streaks have gone 247-183 ATS on the road, including 103-66 ATS off back to back ATS defeats.  Take the Kings.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  The Suns were favored by 9, but upset by Charlotte, 124-121, in their last game.  They'll look to bounce back tonight against a hot Chicago squad which has won and covered 3 straight.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with the Bulls as a home dog.  But be careful, as home dogs off 3 SU/ATS wins have covered just 28% since 1990 vs. .625 (or better) non-division foes off an upset loss in which they failed to cover by 10+ points.  The Suns are 19-6 ATS their last 25 away from home, and they're 30-12 ATS as a favorite away from home off a straight-up loss.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies blew out Los Angeles last night, 122-94.  But off that 28-point defeat, we'll step in and take Tyronn Lue's men on Friday night.  The Clippers are a super 39-16 ATS their last 55 off a loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road off a double-digit loss.  Even better:  .645 (or better) teams are 12-0 ATS in the regular season if they were playing with revenge from a loss the previous day to a .400 (or better) opponent.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Little Rock Trojans minus the points over Louisiana Lafayette.  These two teams met twice earlier this season, and traded 2-point victories, with Lafayette taking Game #1, and Little Rock winning Game #2.  Both of those games were in Louisiana; the games tonight and tomorrow are in Arkansas.  We'll lay the points with Little Rock, which lost both of its games at Louisiana-Monroe last week.  And Little Rock was favored by 3.5 points in each of those defeats.  But NCAA teams have cashed 61% over the last 31 seasons off back to back road losses in which they were favored by more than three points.  Take the Trojans to bounce back tonight.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Bradley Braves + the points over Drake.  The Braves are on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak (including an 88-71 upset loss to Illinois State in their last game), and will welcome the red-hot Bulldogs (who have won their last four games SU/ATS) to Peoria tonight.  We'll back the huge home underdog tonight, as .316 (or better) Missouri Valley teams are 174-113 ATS off 3 ATS losses, if they're playing a foe off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  Missouri Valley teams have cashed 76.6% over the last 31 seasons as an underdog of more than 7 points at home, or on a neutral court, if they failed to cover the spread by 13+ points in their previous game.  Take the Braves + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Billikens minus the points over Richmond.  The Billikens come into this home game off back to back upset losses to Dayton and VCU.  But those two games were on the road.  At home, here in St. Louis, the Billikens are 14-1 SU their last 15, and 20-8 ATS their last 28.  And they're 39-19 ATS at home vs. conference foes, if the Billikens were off back to back losses.  St. Louis also falls into 59-16 and 74-25 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset losses.  Lay the points with St. Louis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons + the points over BYU.  The Dons will hit the road tonight off a very unsuccessful 4-game home stand.  San Francisco was favored in three of the four games, but lost each games -- both SU and ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to lose confidence in the Dons off this 4-game SU/ATS home losing streak.  But NCAA teams have covered 65.7% over the last 31 years if they lost their previous four games SU/ATS, and each of those four losses was played at home.  And BYU has covered just six of 22 home games if it was off back to back wins, and it was matched up against a conference foe off back to back losses.  Take San Francisco + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Kentucky Colonels + the points over Belmont.  The Bruins come into tonight's road game off four straight home games, while Eastern Kentucky returns home off a 7-game road trip.  So the Colonels will no doubt be excited about taking on the Bruins, who have yet to lose an Ohio Valley Conference game.  Belmont's 18-0 in OVC play, 24-1 overall, and has won 21 straight games.  But the Bruins' long win streak has, by my numbers, created value on the side of the underdog.  Additionally, teams on 20-game (or longer) win streaks have gone 17-38-2 ATS when priced from -6.5 to -11.5 points.  Eastern Kentucky is 23-12 ATS its last 35 Ohio Valley games.  Grab the points with the home underdog.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over Brooklyn.  Both of these teams have played well lately.  The Nets are 7-0 SU/ATS their last seven, though Kevin Durant remains sidelined.  And the Magic are 5-2 ATS their last seven, including outright upset wins over Sacramento, New York, and Golden State (though they were upset, 105-93, by Detroit in their last game).  When these two teams last met -- also here in Brooklyn -- the Nets held off Orlando for a 122-115 victory.  But the Magic covered the number, and it was the 3rd straight meeting here in Brooklyn covered by Orlando.  We'll fade the Nets today, as NBA teams on a 6-game SU/ATS win streak have covered just 39% over the last 41 years vs. foes off an ATS loss by double-digits.  And Brooklyn also falls into negative 23-58 and 11-40 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off a SU/ATS win vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Finally, revenge-minded road teams, off double-digit upset home losses, have gone 81-45 ATS in the regular season vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  Take the Magic + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings over the New York Knicks.  The Kings have been streaky this season, as they've had ATS losing streaks of 4, 5 and 8 games.  And they've also had an 8-game ATS win streak.  Their latest 8-game SU/ATS losing streak has immediately followed that 8-game ATS win streak, but it's worth noting it has come largely against good teams.  Indeed, the Kings were underdogs in six of their last eight, and were only favored by a single point in one of the two games they weren't an underdog.  So, it's best to not overreact to Sacramento's current losing streak.  Tonight, they'll take on the 15-17 New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden, and have been installed as a small underdog on the opening number.  We'll take Sacramento, as it falls into 225-142, 117-66, and 160-94 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road teams off back to back losses.  Additionally, rested road underdogs, off a SU/ATS loss, and 7+ ATS losses overall, have gone 64% ATS since 1990.  Take  the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils + the points over Prairie View.  These two teams met back on January 23, in Itta Bena, and the homestanding Delta Devils were blown out by 46 points, 77-31.  We'll grab the points in this rematch, as NCAA teams have gone 92-64 ATS when playing with revenge from a 40-point (or worse) defeat, including 19-6 ATS when getting more than 21 points.  And teams are 53-18-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss in which they scored 36 points or less, if their opponent is off back-to-back wins, including 13-1 ATS if they lost the previous meeting by 36+ points.  Take Mississippi Valley State + the points.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Ottawa Senators.  The Senators will have more victories this season, but they will be hard-pressed to have one more dramatic than the 5-4 win over the Canadiens on Tuesday.  After three back-and-forth periods, and the score tied 4-4, the Habs appeared to win it with three seconds left on the clock.  But the replay officials would overturn Brendan Gallagher's goal and Ottawa would prevail after OT in the shoot-out.  Of course the question is, 'what will the Sens do for an encore,' as unfortunately this is still a pretty bad team with a 6-15 record.  I love playing against bad NHL teams off wins, and the Senators are just 1-8 (-7 games on the money line) in their last nine coming off of two straight home wins.  Worse than that, Ottawa is 3-21 in its last 24 following a game in which it scored five or more goals.  Take the Flames.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Los Angeles Kings.  Don't look now, but the hottest team in the NHL just might be none-other-than the Los Angeles Kings.  After losing five straight between January 28 and February 9, the Kings have now won five straight coming into tonight's showdown with the Blues.  And over those five games, L.A. has out-scored its opponents by a whopping 20-6.  But before we hand them the Cup, let's keep in mind that this is still the Kings we're talking about and even those five straight victories couldn't bring their miserable record back to the .500 mark (8-9).  Despite losing the last game here to L.A., St. Louis is still 4-2 in the last six meetings with the Kings.  Those two losses came in the last two meetings and that may be a good thing for the Blues who are 29-17 (+13 games on the money line) in their last 46 double-revenge situations.  The Kings are also 9-19 in their last 28 games coming off a road victory.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks over the Alabama Crimson Tide.  These two teams met last month in Tuscaloosa, and the Razorbacks suffered their worst loss of the season when Alabama rolled them, 90-59.  We'll take Arkansas to avenge that blowout loss, as .750 (or better) NCAA teams have gone 34-8 ATS their last 42 regular season games when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 16 points earlier in the season, provided they weren't getting more than three points in the current game.  Additionally, the Razorbacks are 9-0 ATS their last nine when playing with revenge, while Alabama is an awful 48-88-2 ATS away from home in the regular season, when priced from -3 to +6.5 points, if it won its previous game.  Take Eric Musselman's men to get the 'W.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  These two teams are among the NBA's three worst teams in February, as the Rockets are 2-9, while the Cavaliers are 2-10 (the Timberwolves are 2-11).  But Cleveland did win last night in dramatic fashion, as Lamar Stevens dunked with 4.1 seconds left to give the Cavs a 112-111 victory over the Atlanta Hawks, as a 7.5-point home underdog.  We'll go against Cleveland off that win, as home dogs are an awful 14-36 ATS off an upset win as a home dog of more than 7 points, if they were playing an opponent off a straight-up loss.  Meanwhile, Houston is 126-80 ATS on the road off back to back losses (and 63-38 ATS on the road off 3+ losses).  And the Rockets are also 24-8 SU and 20-12 ATS their last 32 vs. the Cavaliers.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Carolina Catamounts + the points over NC Greensboro.  This is a revenge match for the Catamounts, who fell 77-56 to the Spartans at home on Monday.  That was the 4th straight loss (both SU and ATS) for Western Carolina.  But the Catamounts now fall into 433-243 and 134-53 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off three ATS losses, as well as a 449-286 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with a losing conference record.  Additionally, Western Carolina is 13-5 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss when playing with revenge, while Greensboro is a horrible 0-9 ATS its last 9 (and 27-49-1 ATS its last 77) off a point spread win, when matched up against .450 (or worse) opponents.  Take the Catamounts + the double-digits.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Washington.  The Wizards pulled off a huge upset last night -- their 3rd upset win in a row -- when they defeated LeBron James' Lakers, in overtime, 127-124.  But off that big upset win, we'll fade the Wizards tonight vs. the Clippers.  Indeed, teams off 3 straight upsets are now 1-21 SU and 5-16-1 ATS their last 22, including 0-10-1 ATS their last 11.  That doesn't bode well for Washington tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Clippers are 38-16 ATS their last 54 off a straight-up loss.  With LA looking to bounce back off its home defeat to Brooklyn on Sunday, we'll lay the points with Kawhi Leonard & Co. tonight.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over Baylor.  The Bears are 17-0 this season -- including an 11-point victory over this Iowa State team -- but haven't played in 21 days dues to the coronavirus.  They'll be back in action tonight, in Waco, but we'll grab the generous number of points with the road team.  Dating back to January 5, winning teams forced to pause their games due to COVID are a wallet-busting 11-34 ATS as a favorite if their previous game was at least 14 days ago.  Even better for the Cyclones:  they're 75-49-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take Iowa State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on Arkansas-Pine Bluff + the points over Prairie View A&M.  It's true the Golden Lions have lost their last nine games, but they've been competitive in defeat, as their last five losses were by 3, 8, 6, 1 and 2 points.  And they covered the spread in four of those five games.  I look for another ATS win by Arkansas-Pine Bluff tonight, as it's 15-7 ATS off back to back losses.  And double-digit underdogs off 7+ losses have covered 61% against conference foes off 7+ wins.  Take Pine Bluff.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Florida.  Bruce Pearl's men come into this game back to back losses at Kentucky and LSU.  And they also play this game with revenge from a 22-point loss at Florida in the last meeting with the Gators.  The good news for the Tigers is that they're back home in Auburn tonight, where they've gone 9-0 ATS off back to back road losses, when favored by 7 points or less (or PK).  And NCAA favorites off back to back defeats have gone 77-43-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 20 points.  Take Auburn.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern U. Jaguars minus the points over Alabama State.  Both of these Southwestern Athletic Conference teams enter tonight's game off a win nine days ago.  Southern defeated Pine Bluff, 73-71, on the road, while Alabama St. blew out Alabama A&M, 72-58, at home.  These teams also met once before this season, in Montgomery.  Southern was an 8.5-point road favorite in that game, but the Jaguars were upset, 66-64, by the Hornets.  Southern blew a 15-point lead in that game.  With revenge on its mind, I expect Southern to keep its foot on the pedal tonight, and win this game in a romp.  The Jaguars are 13-2 ATS their last 15 as a home favorite (or PK), and 6-2 their last eight as double-digit favorites (regardless of venue).  And they're 21-11 ATS off a SU win, and 4-0 ATS their last four when playing with revenge from an upset defeat.  Meanwhile, the Hornets have covered just 5 of 16 off a home win over a conference foe.  Finally, the Jaguars fall into a very good 185-96 ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Carolina Hurricanes.  With their 4-0 defeat of the Lightning on Saturday night, the Canes have now shut out Tampa in back-to-back meetings, albeit about a month apart.  You would have to search hard to find the last time that happened in the same season to the Bolts (the Caps did it to them in the 2018 playoffs).  So to say Tampa has revenge on its mind tonight is an understatement.  And one thing it can't do is take this very good Carolina team lightly.  These could be not only the best two teams in the Division but possibly the two best in the League right now.  But even though the Hurricanes have now won both meetings this year, the Bolts know that they have owned this series lately, taking 20 of the last 28 meetings overall and 14 of the last 19 here in Raleigh.  Yes, the Canes are on a roll right now, but they have a habit of faltering after firing off big victories.  Carolina is just 8-22 (-19 games on the money line) in their last 30 coming off two consecutive home wins by two or more goals.  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Clippers showed what they can do when fully healthy, as they defeated Utah -- the league's best team -- with Kahwi Leonard, Patrick Beverley and Paul George back in the fold.  Tonight, the Clippers will set their sights on Brooklyn, which defeated it in New York, 124-120, earlier this season.  The good news for the Clippers tonight is that Kevin Durant won't be on the court, and he had 28 points and 9 rebound in that first meeting.  It's true that the Nets have won and covered five straight, including a win over the defending champion Lakers on Thursday.  But road dogs of more than 2 points, off an upset win, and off 5 SU/ATS wins overall, are a poor 36.6% ATS since 1990.  Lay the points with the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Lehigh Mountain Hawks + the points over Loyola Maryland.  The Greyhounds annihilated Lehigh on the road yesterday, 75-47.  The two teams will now play the rematch in Baltimore, and we'll grab the double-digits with the revenge-minded Mountain Hawks.  Without denying that Lehigh is a poor team, Loyola's still no great shakes, as it's 3-7 SU/ATS this season, and can't be trusted to lay a large amount of points.  Indeed, Loyola's covered just 26% over the past 14 years when laying more than 11.  And Loyola also falls into a negative 37-82 ATS system of mine which goes against certain big favorites with losing records.  Take Lehigh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Texas Southern Tigers over the Prairie View A&M Panthers.  The Panthers will resume their season here in Houston this afternoon, after not playing since February 1.  So, the fact that Prairie View was red-hot (with 6 straight wins) before its 20-day layoff must be discounted appropriately.  Indeed, in this COVID-impacted season, teams with 14-day (or longer) layoffs have under-performed against the spread, and especially if they were off wins, and not getting 3+ points in their current game.  We'll take the home-standing Tigers, as they fall into a 70-19 ATS system of mine.  Additionally, the Tigers play this game with revenge from a 4-point loss at Prairie View on Jan. 11.  That was the eighth straight time (and 16th of 20) that the home team has won the game, straight-up, in this Lone Star state rivalry.  And the Tigers are 9-1 their last 10 at home vs. the Panthers.  We'll look for the home court to once again be the difference, and take the Tigers to blow out Prairie View.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the the New Jersey Tech Highlanders minus the points over Binghamton.  The Bearcats were 2-13 this season before stunning New Jersey Tech yesterday, here in Newark.  Unfortunately for Binghamton, road teams are a wallet-busting 40% ATS since 1990 off a SU/ATS win, if matched-up against a revenge-minded foe off an 8-point (or worse) home upset loss.  Take New Jersey Tech minus the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Albany Great Danes over Stony Brook.  The Seawolves snapped their four-game losing streak with an upset win here on Saturday.  But we'll lay the points with Albany, as it falls into a super 184-95 ATS revenge system of mine, and look for Stony Brook to resume its losing ways.   Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Michigan.  We played against Michigan on Thursday, and got the $$$ with Rutgers as a big underdog.  And we'll come right back here, and fade the Wolverines as a small road favorite in Columbus.  Ohio State enters this game red-hot, itself, with seven straight wins, and five straight covers.  And .666 (or better) teams are 71-44 ATS as home underdogs, if they're off 3 SU/ATS wins, and playing a conference foe off a SU win.  Ohio State is also 20-8 ATS its last 28 at home.  Even better, when matched up against opponents with a W/L percentage greater than .700, the Buckeyes are 27-11 ATS, including 8-0 ATS their last eight.  Take Ohio State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Houston.  The Cougars were upset by Wichita State, as a 7.5-point road favorite, and now are laying double-digits at home against an opponent (Cincy) off 4 straight wins.  But home teams, off an upset road loss as a favorite of more than 7 points, are a poor 18-40 ATS when laying more than 10 points vs. foes off a win.  That doesn't bode well for Houston this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that Houston's a horrid 0-13-1 ATS at home off a loss when laying 7+ points to a conference foe with a .500 (or worse) SU/ATS record.  Take the Bearcats + the double-digits.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  This will be the 3rd meeting of the season between these two Sun Belt rivals.  Georgia Southern won the most recent, 61-58, as a 3-point home dog, in Statesboro.  The Chanticleers do come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses.  But each of those was on the road, where Coastal Carolina is 1-5 SU this season.  At home, it's a much different story, as the Chanticleers are 11-1 SU.  Lay the points with Coastal.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies over Utah Valley State.  Yesterday, the Wolverines upset the Aggies, 69-66, as a 9 point underdog.  We'll look for the Aggies to rebound tonight here, at the Eastwood High School gym, in El Paso, as the Aggies have cashed 80% over the last 31 years when playing with revenge from a loss as a 9-point (or greater) favorite.  Meanwhile, Utah Valley has covered just six of its last 20 off a win.  Take New Mexico State.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Cal Baptist Lancers + the points over Grand Canyon.  We played on the Lancers last night, and I released the game overnight when the line was +11.  Later in the morning, around 9:44 am, the line moved down to +10, and then later, it moved further to +9.5 or +9, and the game fell on 10.  We'll come right back with Cal Baptist this Saturday night, as I continue to believe the Antelopes are overvalued here.  And revenge-minded WAC Conference teams are 114-70-3 ATS away from home off a SU loss, when playing an opponent off back to back wins, including 64-29 ATS when it lost the previous meeting by double-digits.  Take Cal Baptist.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Youngstown State Penguins minus the points over IUPUI.  The Jaguars stunned Youngstown here last night, 72-70, as a 6-point underdog.  And that game snapped the Penguins' five game win streak (3-1 ATS).  We'll look for YSU to bounce back this afternoon, as IUPUI is 4-12-1 ATS its last 17 off an upset win, while the Penguins have cashed 67% off an upset loss in which they were favored by 6+ points.  Take Youngstown minus the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Bryant Bulldogs minus the points over Merrimack.  The Bulldogs are 10-5 have not played since January 30, when they lost back to back road games at Fairleigh Dickinson.  And Bryant was favored by 6.5 and 7.5 in those games.  But they're back home today in Smithfield, RI, where they've gone 6-0 this season, and 3-1-1 ATS.  We'll take the Bulldogs to bounce back today, as home teams, with a perfect home record on the season, have cashed 86% over the past 31 years (including 10-0 ATS their last 10) off back to back road losses where they were favored by 5+ points.  Indeed, we saw this situation occur a few weeks ago when Akron bounced back off back to back upset losses to defeat Toledo.  Lay the points with Bryant.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus the points over S. Alabama.  The Mountaineers were upset, 65-63, by the Jaguars here last night.  Unfortunately, though, for South Alabama, it's covered just 25% over the last 31 years off an upset win, if it was on the road against a revenge-minded foe it defeated earlier in the season.  Take the Mountaineers.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Kent State.  The Golden Flashes have won their last three games.  Meanwhile, the Eagles have lost their last five games -- both SU and ATS, including losses by 15, 22 and 21 points in their last three games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to on the hot Golden Flashes, and play against the ice cold Eastern Michigan here, especially because the Eagles are currently getting slightly less than 15 points.  But be careful, as conference underdogs on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, that have lost their three previous games by 15+ points, have actually been a solid 68.2% ATS.  And Kent is a wallet-busting 30-51 ATS off 3+ wins, including 1-9 ATS their last 10.  Finally, EMU falls into 431-242 and 132-53 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take Eastern Michigan + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Indiana.  It's absolutely true this is the worst team Tom Izzo has fielded this century.  And it may prove to be Michigan State's first team to miss out on the NCAA Tournament since 1997.  But that doesn't mean we won't take this generous amount of points against an Indiana team which has only defeated Michigan State by 7+ points ONCE in the last 13 meetings.  Even worse for Indy: it has been extremely unreliable when laying 6+ points to Big 10 Conference foes, as it's covered just 29 of 87 regular season games, including 10-26-1 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back losses.  And Michigan State has gone 72-46 ATS when it's been below .500 in Big 10 Conference play.  Grab the points with the Green and White this afternoon.  Take Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Toronto.  The Raptors upset Milwaukee last night -- their 2nd straight upset over the Bucks.  And Toronto was getting 7.5 points last night.  But off those two big road wins, we'll fade the Raptors as a road favorite on Friday night.  And key for us is that Minnesota has dropped its last two games -- both at home.  But the good news for the T-Wolves is that rested home underdogs -- off back to back home losses -- have covered 79% since 1992 vs. unrested foes off back to back road wins!  Even better:  the Timberwolves are 17-2-1 ATS their last 20 when getting 2+ points off back to back home losses.  Take Minnesota + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Cal Baptist Lancers + the points over Grand Canyon.  The Antelopes are currently riding an 8-game win streak, and have yet to taste defeat in Western Athletic Conference play, as they're 6-0 in conference (and 9-3 overall).  But we'll fade them tonight, as they fall into a negative 42-91 ATS system of mine which goes against certain top-level teams.  It's true that the Lancers come into tonight's game off a home upset loss to Big Sky-member Sacramento State.  But Cal Baptist is 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS its last seven off a home loss, and 16-8 ATS its last 24 as an underdog.  And teams (like Grand Canyon) with a 5-0 (or better) conference record are a soft 32.6% ATS when favored at home by more than 8 points vs. conference foes off an upset loss.  Take the Lancers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Bucks are mired in a long 5-game losing streak -- their longest under coach Mike Budenholzer.  And among those five losses was a 114-109 defeat to this Thunder team in Oklahoma City.  But that should serve as ample motivation for this Bucks team to come out like a "house on fire" tonight.  Notwithstanding its current troubles, Milwaukee is still 42-16 ATS its last 58 at home off back to back losses, including a perfect 4-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite.  And it also falls into a 90-46 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain team that were upset by their opponent in their previous meeting.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Illinois-Chicago Flames minus the points over Wisconsin-Green Bay.  This is the first of two games this weekend between these Horizon League rivals.  And the Flames will look to snap a 7-game SU (and 4-game ATS) losing streak.  But five of those seven games were on the road, while the two home games were against the League's #1 team, Wright State, which is 15-3, and has won nine straight games.  Here, the Flames will be matched up against a Green Bay team which sits just above it in the Horizon League standings.  And Green Bay has been horrid away from home, as it's won just once in 11 outings (and has won just once of the last 13, dating back to last season)!  Indeed, it was a similar situation last year when these two teams met here, in Chicago.  The Flames were upset in their previous game, but were installed as a 2-point home favorite.  The result was 13-point blowout win by the home team.  Horizon League home teams have covered 71% off back to back upset losses by 7+ points.  Take the Flames minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iona Gaels minus the points over Monmouth.  The Hawks have played 15 games this season.  When installed as the favorite (or PK), they're 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS.  But when the Hawks have been installed as an underdog (as they are, tonight), then they've gone 0-4 SU and 1-2-1 ATS.  Meanwhile, Rick Pitino's Gaels check in off back to back upset losses.  And they were favored by 8 (vs Manhattan) and 7 points (at Quinnipiac) in those two defeats.  But those two losses have triggered a 344-218 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites.  Additionally, Iona has covered 65.6% off an upset loss where they were favored by more than 4 points, including 77% ATS if it was favored at home in its current game.  Lay the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over Loyola Marymount.  The Dons lost, 68-60, when these teams met in Los Angeles, in January.  So, San Francisco will be looking to avenge that loss tonight.  And it also will be looking to redeem itself after losing by 39 points here, at home, in its previous game.  We'll lay the points with the Dons, as .500 (or better) teams have cashed 67.9% at home over the past 31 years, if they lost at home by more than 28 points in their previous game, and weren't laying more than 7 points in their current game.  Additionally, San Francisco is 24-15 ATS off 3+ conference losses, while Loyola Marymount is a poor 40-68-1 ATS vs. revenge-minded conference foes.  Take the Dons minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Michigan.  Juwan Howard's troops are 14-1 and ranked #3 in the country.  Tonight, they'll welcome Rutgers to Crisler Arena.  And the Scarlet Knights are playing their best ball of the season.  Rutgers is 5-1 SU, and 4-2 ATS its last six games, including an impressive 67-37 win over Michigan State.  Over this stretch of six games, the Scarlet Knights have held their opponents to just 60.66 ppg.  And over the course of the season, they've held their foes to 67.9 ppg, almost 7 points below their opponents' offensive averages.  Rutgers has excelled vs. foes off ATS wins, as it's 23-10-1 ATS its last 34, including 12-2-1 ATS when getting more than 3 points.  Take Rutgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the San Jose Sharks.  Going for their third straight win on Monday, the Blues held the Coyotes to just 19 shots on goal.  But despite this, the St. Louis offense took the night off and Arizona won the game, 1-0.  It was only the second time the Blues had been held scoreless this season, the first being an 8-0 drubbing by the Avs one month earlier.  Perhaps the Coyotes just had the Blues figured out as Monday's 1-0 contest was the seventh straight meeting between the two teams.  No doubt the Blues are happy to be moving on and if they could hand-pick their next opponent, it might very well be the Sharks.  St. Louis has won six of the last seven meetings with San Jose going back to the 2019 post-season when it eliminated the Sharks on the way to the Stanley Cup.  The Sharks won their last game but putting back-to-back wins together has proven very difficult of late as they are 0-6 in their last six games immediately following a victory (0-5 off a win so far this season).  And St. Louis is 22-13 (+6 games on the moneyline) after failing to score 2+ goals in their previous game.  Take the Blues.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville State + the points over Belmont.  This is the 2nd matchup of the season between these Ohio Valley teams.  The Bruins won Round 1 in Jacksonville, 98-91, as a 7-point road favorite.  At the time, the Gamecocks were not in great form, as they were 0-3-1 ATS in their three previous games.  But since that game, the Gamecocks are 6-2 SU/ATS, including 4-0 SU/ATS their last four.  And they played one of their best games of the season their last time out when they crushed Edwardsville, 80-60, as a 9-point favorite.  Off that big win, we'll grab the double-digits with the road dog, as NCAA underdogs of more than 10 points have cashed 75% over the last 31 years off 4 SU/ATS wins, if they also won by 15+ points in their previous game.  Additionally, the Gamecocks are 12-1 ATS on the road off a 20-point (or greater) home win.  Take Jacksonville State.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Toronto.  The Bucks are currently riding a 4-game losing streak -- their longest in almost three years, a span of 236 games.  This spate of poor play has coincided with the absence of Jrue Holiday, but he will be eligible to play tonight after completing COVID protocols.  We'll lay the points with Milwaukee, as it's 42-15 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 11-2 ATS off an upset loss.  And the Bucks also fall into a 136-85 ATS regular season revenge system of mine which plays on certain home teams with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent earlier in the season.  Lay the points with Mike Budenholzer's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers over Iowa.  The Badgers have long been a very strong home team.  And especially against the very best opponents.  Indeed, Wisky is 148-49 SU and 111-74-3 ATS at home vs. .700 (or better) opponents, including 58-27-2 ATS when the Badgers were playing with revenge.  And that's the situation tonight, as Iowa is 15-6 on the season, and defeated Wisconsin, 68-62, in the prior meeting.  Moreover, Wisconsin checks in tonight off a loss in its previous game.  But the Badgers are 5-0-1 ATS this season off a loss, and 10-1-2 their last 13 off a loss.  Take Wisconsin.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Winnipeg Jets.  Coming off of a 3-0 shutout over a very good Canadiens team, the Oilers figured they were safe to use goalie Mike Smith four days later against this Jets team.  Unfortunately, they were very wrong.  The 38-year-old net-minder completely fell apart on Monday, and allowed four goals on just 11 shots.  Edmonton replaced Smith with Mikko Koskinen and the move worked but it was too little too late and the Jets held on for a 6-5 win.  Smith will be back on the bench tonight and a similar effort on offense by the Oilers should get the job done with Koskinen in net.  The Oilers out-shot Winnipeg by a whopping 45-24 but Smith put them in too big of a hole.  Scoring a lot of goals does not carry over well for the Jets lately as they are 0-8 in their last eight games immediately following a five-plus goal effort.  Saturday's win was also Winnipeg's second straight over Edmonton but the Oilers are 30-19 (+17 games on the money line) in their last 49 playing with double-revenge.  Take Edmonton.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over Southern Cal.  USC comes into tonight's game on a 6-game win streak, and is favored by double-digits over an Arizona State team which it defeated earlier this season by nine points, 73-64.  Arizona State also enters tonight off a win, as it bested the Oregon State Beavers in Tempe, 75-73, on Sunday.  We'll go against the Trojans at home, as they've covered just 49 of 133 at home off an ATS win, including 7-23 ATS when USC was favored between -7.5 and -12.5 points.  Meanwhile, Arizona State's a super 40-20 ATS as an underdog in the regular season, against foes off ATS wins, when ASA was playing with revenge from a loss by more than eight points earlier in the year.  Finally, over the last 30 regular seasons, Pac-12 underdogs of +9 (or more) points, off a SU win, have covered 67.3% vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS win, if our underdog was playing with revenge from a loss in the season's first meeting.  Grab the points with the Sun Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over the New York Knicks.  It certainly isn't a surprise that coach Tom Thibodeau is turning around the Knicks.  After all, his track record with Chicago, and as a defensive assistant with Boston, is stellar.  New York is currently riding a 3-game win streak, and is 5-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS its last seven games.  But New York has now been installed as a mid-priced road favorite at Orlando, even though it's 14-15 on the season.  And the last time New York was favored by 4 (or more) points on the road was back on March 28, 2016 -- 349 games ago!  By my math, New York is overvalued tonight, and we'll grab the points with an Orlando club which is also starting to play better basketball after a 1-6 SU/ATS stretch in which it lost six games by 9+ points.  However, in its last three (all on the road), it notched an upset win, 123-112, at Sacramento, and played Golden State tough in a six-point loss, 111-105.  The Magic lost, 109-90, at Phoenix on Sunday, but coach Steve Clifford still remarked that his team's play over the four-game road trip was "the best....that [it's] played."  Tonight, Orlando will be back home, where it's 26-9 ATS vs. losing teams when priced from +2.5 to +6 points.  And NBA road favorites off a win, and 4 ATS wins, overall, have covered just 208 of 480 vs. non-division foes.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wofford Terriers minus the points over The Citadel.  The Bulldogs continue to make friends "in Vegas," as they lost 70-66 to Chattanooga on Saturday, but covered as a double-digit underdog.  That was the Bulldogs' third straight ATS win, and they'll seek their fourth ATS win in a row tonight, here, in Spartanburg.  But we'll fade The Citadel against a revenge-minded Terriers squad.  In this season's first meeting, the Bulldogs pulled off a big upset, with a 77-69 win, as an 8.5-point underdog.  So, Wofford will be out to avenge that loss tonight.  And Wofford also will be looking to redeem itself from a 71-49 blowout loss at East Tennessee State, on Saturday.  We'll lay the points, as NCAA favorites (or PK), off a loss by 20+ points, have covered 83 of 134 regular season games when playing with revenge from a loss by more than five points in the season's first meeting, provided its opponent covered the spread in its previous game.  Even better:  the Terriers are 11-0 ATS off a road loss, if they were favored by 6+ points in their current game.  Finally, The Citadel is a woeful 10-28 ATS off a conference loss when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Wofford minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers minus the points over Wagner.  The Seahawks smashed the Mountaineers here, in Emmitsburg, last night, and will look for a 2-game sweep on this Wednesday afternoon.  But it won't be easy, as Mount St. Mary's is 14-9 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Additionally, favorites, playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) home loss in the season's first meeting, have covered 78% in the regular season over the last 31 years.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans over the Memphis Grizzlies.  These two teams met 10 days ago, and the Pels defeated the Grizzlies, 118-109, as a 1-point home underdog.  Tonight's game is also near-Pk'em, and we'll take New Orleans to snap its current 3-game losing streak.  These latest three losses immediately followed a season-best 4-game win streak.  And the reason New Orleans lost each of these three games is obvious.  They were the three worst defensive games the Pelicans have played this season, as they allowed Chicago, Dallas and Detroit to each shoot over 53% from the floor.  But in New Orleans' 4-game win streak immediately before these losses, it held its opponents to 46, 44, 44 and 41% FG shooting.  After the loss to Detroit, coach Stan Van Gundy lamented his team's defense, and said, "Nobody blocked out.  We didn't compete...as hard as they did."  I expect a much better effort on the part of New Orleans tonight.  And it should have a lot of confidence vs. the Grizzlies, as it's won the last four meetings by 10, 28, 10 and 9 points, and is 6-1 SU/ATS since 2019, with the average win by 12.42 ppg.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets come into this game off a blowout win over the defending champion Lakers, while Boston enters off back-to-back losses to Eastern conference-cellar dwellers Washington and Detroit.  The good news for Boston is that .500 (or better) teams off back-to-back upset losses to sub-.333 teams have cashed 62% since 1990 vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  That bodes well for Brad Stevens' men tonight.  As does the fact that Denver is a horrid 4-24 ATS on the road off a point spread win vs. foes off a double-digit loss.  And it's 5-30 ATS on the road vs. non-division foes, if Denver was off a win by more than 8 points (and 1-19 ATS if the Nuggets also won two games back).  Take Boston to blow out Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets over the Washington Wizards.  The Rockets come into this game on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, including an upset loss at New York on Saturday.  The Wizards pulled off a big upset yesterday when they won here vs. the Celtics, 104-91, as 6.5-point underdogs.  But off that win, we'll fade Washington tonight, as it's 0-4 SU/ATS its last four off a SU win, and 16-33-1 ATS its last 50 off an upset win.  Even better:  Houston's 49-24-2 ATS on the road vs. a foe off a win, if Houston was off back to back SU/ATS losses.  And NBA home teams, off an upset home win, are a poor 171-244 ATS in the regular season vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Rockets on Monday evening.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  After a solid stretch of basketball which saw Cleveland win five of six games (and go 4-2 ATS), the team has hit the skids with a 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS mark over its last nine.  I look for it to snap its ATS losing streak tonight, as rested NBA teams off 6 (or more) losses, are 255-176, 59% ATS when getting more than 9 points, including 114-65, 64% ATS off back to back ATS defeats.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Detroit.  The Pistons pulled off an upset at Boston two nights ago, 108-102, as a 7-point road underdog.  Faithful followers know I love to go against bad teams off wins.  And this would be such an instance.  Indeed, the last time Detroit won two games in a row was more than a year ago (Jan. 18, 2020).  And this will be the 50th game the Pistons have played since then.  Detroit is an awful 3-24 SU and 7-18-2 ATS its last 27 off a win, including 1-8 ATS at home.  Take New Orleans minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Northern Iowa Panthers minus the points over Valparaiso.  The Crusaders stunned the Panthers, 70-57, as a 7-point road underdog yesterday, and handed the Panthers their 2nd straight loss.  Northern Iowa now falls into a 343-217 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites of -2 (or more) points off back to back losses.  Additionally, revenge-minded home favorites off 8-point (or greater) upset home losses, have cashed 64% since 1990 vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  And .500 (or worse) SU/ATS Missouri Valley teams are 176-119 ATS at home when playing with revenge against a conference foe which is not off back to back wins.  Take the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Boston Terriers minus the points over Holy Cross.  Yesterday, the Crusaders shocked the Terriers, 82-65, as a 6-point underdog.  And that was the 2nd straight upset loss suffered by Boston at the hands of Holy Cross, as it also fell 68-66, as a 15-point home favorite in January.  Over the last 31 years, home favorites of -4 (or more) points have cashed 70.2% when playing with revenge from two losses earlier in the season.  Moreover, the Terriers fall into a 60.8% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses vs. foes off ATS wins.  Lay the points with Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Southern Illinois Salukis minus the points over Illinois State.  The Redbirds thrashed the Salukis here at Banterra Center yesterday, with an 80-55 win as a 5.5-point underdog.  We'll lay the points with the home team this afternoon in the rematch, as home teams have cashed 63.1% over the last 31 years when playing with revenge from 25-point (or worse) upset home losses.  Take The Salukis minus the points.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Penn State.  The 'Huskers took heavily-favored Illinois into overtime earlier this week, before falling 77-72, as a 14-point underdog.  They're once again a double-digit underdog, and we'll grab the points with the Cornhuskers against a Penn State team which has scored 58, 55, and 56 points in its three previous games.   Even worse for the Nittany Lions:  they've covered just one of their last 12 conference games when laying double-digits.  Take Nebraska.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Washington.  Two nights ago, the Celts were upset, 108-102, as a 7-point home favorite by the Detroit Pistons.  They're now on the road in the nation's capital, and will face a Wizards club reeling from back-to-back blowout losses to Toronto (137-115) and New York (109-91).  We'll lay the points with Boston, as it's 25-14 ATS off a loss, and 12-1 ATS its last 13 vs. the Wizards when priced from -1.5 to -8.5 points.  Take the Celtics minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Towson Tigers plus the points over Northeastern.  Yesterday, the Huskies defeated the Tigers here, in Towson, by nine points, 76-67.  We'll take the home underdog in this rematch, as Towson is 45-21-2 ATS as an underdog (or PK) when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 33-12 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up win.  And the Tigers also fall into a 157-79 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams -- with worse records than their foe -- that are off SU/ATS losses.  Grab the points with Towson.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers over Michigan.  When these two teams met in Ann Arbor earlier this season, it was the Wolverines' "coming out party," so to speak.  U-M broke out to a 40-23 halftime lead against the then-No. 9-ranked Badgers, and extended the lead to 69-29, before finishing with a 77-54 victory.  To say the Badgers would like to avenge that embarrassing loss would be an understatement.  And I believe they will, as the Badgers are 68-24 ATS at home vs. .700 (or better) foes that don't have revenge and who also aren't getting 10+ points.  Take Wisconsin.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Utah Jazz.  Both teams are playing good basketball.  The Heat have come around after a slow start, and currently sport a 4-game win streak.  Meanwhile, the Jazz have won 17 of 18, including a win over Milwaukee -- the NBA's best team over the past 2+ years -- last night.  But NBA teams have generally suffered letdowns after defeating Milwaukee over the last two seasons, including 0-10 ATS when priced from +2 to -6.5 points.  Tonight's game sets up well for the Heat, as they'll be playing with a day of rest following Thursday's 101-94 victory at Houston, while the Jazz had to play last night.  And the Heat are 31-15 ATS on the road when rested, and playing an unrested foe (including 10-1 ATS if playing a non-division foe off a win).  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks + the points over Missouri-Kansas City.  The Mavericks will get another shot at the Kangaroos tonight after dropping a 10-point decision here last night.  We'll play on the Mavericks tonight, as they fall into 205-113 and 151-105 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off 6+ losses vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Additionally, at Game 16 forward, NCAA favorites that don't own a winning record have covered just 70 of 182 vs. conference foes with a win percentage less than .125. Take Omaha + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland State Vikings minus the points over Detroit.  These two teams met last night, and the Titans upset the Vikings, 89-83, as a 3-point underdog.  But before last night's loss, the Vikings had covered four straight, and were 13-3-1 ATS their last 16 games.  We'll fade Detroit, as it's covered just 19 of 57 when playing an opponent off an upset loss.  Take the Vikings minus the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons + the points over Gonzaga.  These two teams met last month in Spokane, and the Bulldogs blew out San Francisco, 85-62.  Since that game, the Bulldogs have gone 9-0 straight-up (all by double-digits), but have covered just two of those games.  We'll take San Francisco in the rematch, as the Dons are 8-1 ATS as double-digit home underdogs their last nine.  And they also fall into a powerful 137-58 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season.  Finally, Gonzaga falls into a negative 28-74 ATS system of mine which fades certain road teams off double-digit road wins.  Take the Dons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Central Arkansas Bears + the points over Sam Houston State.  The Bearkats come into today's game off back to back SU/ATS wins over SE Louisiana and Nicholls State, while Central Arkansas has lost its last four games SU/ATS, including upset losses to Northwestern St and McNeese St in its last two outings.  But the good news for the Bears here is that double-digit dogs have covered 68.9% of conference games off back to back upset losses since 1990 when playing an opponent off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Central Arkansas + the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Little Rock Trojans minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Trojans were upset, 73-62, by the Red Wolves on the road last night, but return home for this rematch on Saturday evening.  Last night, the Trojans got off to a horrid start, and trailed by 18 at the half.  But they regrouped over the last 20 minutes, and outscored the Red Wolves, 40-33, in the second stanza.  I look for them to play a full 40 minutes today, and blow out Arkansas State, as Little Rock's a solid 33-18-1 ATS off an upset loss when playing a conference foe. Meanwhile, the Red Wolves have covered 0 of 7 vs. .500 (or better) foes off an upset loss, and two SU/ATS losses, overall.  Finally, it's true that the Red Wolves have covered six straight.  But they now fall into negative 137-222 and 122-191 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off 4+ ATS wins.  Take Little Rock minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on IUPU-Fort Wayne + the points over Youngstown State.  Last night, the Penguins got the better of the Mastodons, 84-70.  Unfortunately, Youngstown's covered just 20 of 59 when playing a revenge-minded conference foe it defeated earlier in the season.  Moreover, Horizon League teams have covered 68% of conference games since 2007 off three double-digit SU/ATS losses.  And, finally, Fort Wayne also falls into a super 135-64 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses.  Take the points with the Mastodons.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the San Jose Sharks.  After winning three straight, the Golden Knights came into Thursday's game against the Ducks as an almost 2-1 favorite.  But they wound up on the short end of that one, getting shut out for the first time this season, 1-0.  Clearly the offense took the night off and that's unusual for this team as Vegas' 3.36 GPG average this season is in the league's top 10 in that category.  That offense could be salivating a bit coming into this game against a Sharks club that could be without its #1 goaltender.  San Jose acquired veteran Devan Dubnyk to be their main man between the pipes this season, but the 35-year-old missed his last start with a lower-body injury and may be down for today's game as well.  That would leave them relying on back-up Martin Jones who has really struggled so far this season (.865 SV% and 4.09 GAA in eight games).  The Knights are also 6-2 in their last eight immediately after being shut out in their previous game.  Take Vegas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over North Carolina State.  This is the 2nd time this season that Mike Krzyzewski's Blue Devils have been on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  The last time it occurred, they responded by winning SU/ATS vs. Georgia Tech, on January 26.  We played on Duke in that game, and we'll do so here, as well.  For technical support, consider that the Blue Devils are 24-7 ATS when they were on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Kent State.  The Golden Flashes upset Bowling Green on the road in their last game.  And they've now been installed as a double-digit home favorite vs. Northern Illinois.  We'll go against Kent this afternoon, as .636 (or better) Mid-American Conference teams have covered just 11 of 58 games over the last 28 years off an upset road win, if they were favored by more than 4 points against a .575 (or worse) conference opponent (and just 3 of 25 games if favored by more than 11).  That bodes well for Northern Illinois today.  As does the fact that the Huskies are 16-5 ATS as double-digit dogs vs. foes off upset wins.  Take Northern Illinois + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over Idaho State.  This will be the 2nd of back to back games between these cross-state rivals here in Pocatello.  The Bengals blew out the Vandals on Thursday night, 69-43, as 8-point favorites.  And that was the 2nd straight 26-point loss suffered by the Vandals, as they also lost, 90-64, at Eastern Washington last Saturday.  We'll grab the points with the underdog here, as revenge-minded NCAA teams off back to back 25-point (or worse) losses have covered 60% over the past 31 years if they lost earlier in the season to their opponent.  Take Idaho + the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Bowling Green Falcons + the points over Toledo.  The Rockets have not been a reliable point spread favorite over the years.  And they've been especially poor when favored by 5+ points against .350 (or better) foes that were off a point spread defeat in their previous game, as Toledo's covered just eight of 38.  And that's the situation this afternoon, as Bowling Green checks in off an upset loss to Kent State this past Tuesday.  Take the Falcons + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Quinnipiac Bobcats minus the points over Canisius.  The Golden Griffins pulled their third straight upset win yesterday vs. the Bobcats, as they won, 74-67, as a 5-point road underdog.  But the Golden Griffins are a horrible 1-13-1 ATS off 3 SU/ATS wins when not getting 6+ points, including 0-9 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take Quinnipiac.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks + the points over Missouri-Kansas City.  In this match-up between two lower-tier Summit League teams, we'll take the points with the basement-dwelling Mavericks against UMKC.  The Kangaroos -- though not as bad as Omaha -- can't be trusted to lay points.  And even to a 2-16 team like the Mavericks.  To wit, the Kangaroos have covered just 41% as a favorite over the last 21 seasons.  It's true that Omaha comes into this game off back to back upset losses to Western Illinois.  However, sub-.300 NCAA teams, off back to back upset losses, have covered 65.1% away from home over the past 30 seasons when not favored by 7+ points.  So, that bodes well for the Mavericks tonight.  And, generally speaking, in match-ups between two bad teams, I prefer to take points rather than lay them.  Indeed, at Game 16 forward, NCAA favorites that don't own a winning record have covered just 69 of 181 vs. conference foes with a win percentage less than .125.  That also doesn't bode well for the Kangaroos tonight.  Take Omaha + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.