Sports Picks & Predictions

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs + the points over Buffalo.  The Bills blew out Pittsburgh last week, 38-3, to move to 4-1 this season.  KC is also 4-1 after outlasting the Raiders, 30-29.  The Chiefs are a super 23-9 their last 32 games, and are 10-1 SU their last 11 at home.  Yet they've been installed as a home underdog vs. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.  We'll grab the points with the Chiefs, as NFL teams that have won at least 23 of their previous 32 games, have gone 20-8 ATS when not laying more than 1 point, including a perfect 9-0 ATS if their opponent was off a win by 17+ points.  Take KC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Arizona/Seattle game.  The Cardinals have reeled off four straight Unders after last week's 20-17 loss to the Eagles went under the total by 10.5 points.  And Arizona is also 15-4-1 UNDER on the road the past 3 seasons, including 8-0 Under when priced from -7 to +2.5 points.  It's true that Seattle surrendered 39 points to the Saints last week, and 45 to Detroit two games back.  But the Seahawks have gone under 7 of 8 after allowing 28+ points in their two previous games.  And competitively-priced NFC West division games, with point spreads of 3 points or less, have gone Under 45-18-3.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Los Angeles Rams/Carolina Panthers game.  After playing two of the NFL's best defenses the past two week (49ers, Cowboys), the Rams will be ecstatic to go up against a Panthers defense which has allowed 37 and 26 points its two previous games.  Los Angeles has gone Over the total 60.3% off three straight unders.  Meanwhile, the Panthers are 40-22 Over as road underdogs, including 11-0 Over when the OU Line was between 40 and 42.5 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Seattle.  The Seahawks' defense is giving up 30.8 ppg, which is the 2nd-worst in the NFL.  They’ve been installed as a home dog this Sunday.  But NFL home underdogs of +2 (or more) points have covered just 40.3%, at Game 5 forward, if they were giving up more than 30 points.  Take Arizona minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the New York Jets.  The Flyboys pulled off their 2nd straight upset last week when they blew out division rival, Miami, 40-17.  And they went into Pittsburgh the previous week and upset the Steelers, 24-20.  Now, they'll try to make it three-upsets-in-a-row when they travel to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.  Unfortunately for New York, Green Bay's coming into this game off an upset loss to the New York Giants, 27-22, in London.  Green Bay's 24-11 ATS with Rodgers under center off an upset loss, including 5-1 ATS vs. a foe off an upset win.  Lay the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Cincinnati/New Orleans game.  Last week, the Saints scored 39 points in a 39-32 victory over Seattle.  And their game went over the total by 26 points.  We'll look for another high-scoring game on Sunday, as the Saints are 13-5 Over the total if they went Over their previous game.  And they're 58-42 Over as home underdogs.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Indianapolis/Jacksonville game.  The first meeting this season was a low-scoring game, as the Jaguars won 24-0.  And that was the 4th straight meeting between these two division rivals that went under the total.  Also, each of these teams went under the total last week.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here.  But I'll take the Over, as NFL division games have gone Over the total 55% of the time if both teams went Under their previous game; the season's previous meeting went Under, as well as the teams' last 3 meetings overall.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Steelers were blown out by 35 points last week in Kenny Pickett's first start, which wasn't wholly unexpected.  But off that debacle, I'll grab the points with the Men of Steel, as NFL teams that scored less than 7 points, and lost by 35+ points have covered 63.9% since 1990.  Take Pittsburgh.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over New Orleans.  Cincinnati lost on the road last week to Baltimore, and it's back on the road this week.  It's been installed as a road favorite vs. the Saints, who won last week, 39-32, vs. Seattle.  The good news for Joe Burrow & Co. is that road favorites are 65.2% ATS off a road loss, if matched up against a foe off a win.  Take Cincinnati.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres.  The Dodgers had an historic season, as they outscored their foes by 334 runs in the regular season -- tied for 3rd in the modern era (behind the 1939 Yankees and 1927 Yankees).  Yet, after its 2-1 defeat last night, Los Angeles finds itself 1 loss away from an ignominious end to an otherwise great season.  Tonight, Los Angeles will hand the ball to southpaw Tyler Anderson, while San Diego will go with its ace, Joe Musgrove.  But even though Musgrove has been an All Star, and has thrown a no-hitter, he's never notched a win against the Dodgers.  He's made nine starts for the Pirates and Padres vs. LA, but is 0-6 in those nine starts (his teams are 2-7), with a 4.59 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Anderson has had much better success for San Diego, as he's gone 6-3 in 14 starts, with an ERA of 2.46, and a WHIP of 1.06.  With LA a super 31-13 following a game where it scored less than 2 runs, we'll take Los Angeles tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over North Carolina.  The Blue Devils were upset in overtime, 23-20, by Georgia Tech last week to fall to 4-2 on the season.  They'll now welcome their rival, North Carolina, to Durham, and have been installed as a home underdog.  UNC is 5-1 this year following its upset win at Miami last Saturday.  Unfortunately for Carolina, favorites off an upset win have covered just 32% over the last 43 years when playing a .666 (or better) conference foe off an upset loss.  Take Duke + the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Southern Cal.  The Utes were upset on the road last week by UCLA, 42-32.  And that was Utah's 2nd loss on the season.  But both losses were away from home; here, in Salt Lake City, Utah is 19-1 SU its last 20 vs. Division 1 FBS teams, and 14-6 ATS.  USC is now 6-0 after its blowout of Washington State.  But undefeated teams, with a 6-0 (or better) record, are a soft 33% as underdogs of more than 3 points against foes off an upset loss.  Additionally, Utah is 12-4 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against a foe off a double-digit win.  And USC is a poor 26-48-1 ATS on the road off a win.  Take the Utes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Clemson.  The Seminoles lost by 10 points to Clemson last season, so they play with revenge on Saturday night vs. the undefeated Tigers.  FSU's been installed as a home underdog in this ACC contest.  And the Seminoles have covered 67% as revenge-minded home dogs since 1980 vs. conference rivals.  Even better:  Florida State lost on the road, 19-17, to NC State last week, which was its second straight loss.  But the Seminoles are 41-23-3 ATS off a SU road loss.  And single-digit ACC home dogs, off back to back losses, are a super 75% ATS vs. conference rivals off back to back wins.  Grab the points with Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State.  QB Will Levis was injured in Kentucky's 22-19 loss at Mississippi two weeks ago, and missed last week's home loss to South Carolina.  But Levis has been upgraded to 'probable' for this game.  The Wildcats have a solid defense, and are giving up just 16.3 ppg.  And that's key, as .666 (or better) home underdogs off back to back losses, that give up 20.5 (or less) points per game, have covered 64.7% since 1980.  Take Kentucky + the points.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Washington/Arizona game.  The Huskies lost at Arizona State, 45-38, last Saturday.  And that game total of 83 points was the most for a Huskies conference game since it beat California, 66-27, in 2016.  We'll look for a much lower-scoring game this evening, as Pac-12 teams have gone under 59% in conference games after a conference game that totaled more than 77 points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:07 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros.  After an historic loss in Game 1, one had to wonder if the Mariners would get blown out in Game 2 in Houston on Thursday.  But they fought hard, and even held a 2-1 lead going into the bottom of the sixth inning before succumbing by a 4-2 margin.  So rather than looking at the glass as half-empty at this point, Seattle's takeaway from its 0-2 deficit should be that it could just as easily be up 2-0 in this series.  The Mariners will go with one of their many young stars on the mound today in 24-year-old RH rookie George Kirby.  Kirby finished the regular season 8-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts covering 135 innings.  This will be Kirby's first post-season start (he had a relief appearance in the Wild Card series against the Blue Jays) but all indications are that he's up for the challenge.  Kirby's only start vs. the Astros in the regular season was decent -- two runs on four hits in four innings with seven strikeouts and one walk.  Seattle is 11-4 in Kirby's last 15 starts since the beginning of July.  And it's 47-38 (but +23.7 net games) off back to back losses.  Take the Mariners.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month is on the Troy Trojans minus the points over Texas State.  The Bobcats pulled off a major upset last week, as a 20-point home underdog against Appalachian State.  Texas State was outgained by 102 yards, yet stunned the Mountaineers, 36-24.  But off that upset win, we'll look for a letdown at Troy on Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, Sun Belt underdogs of more than 3 points have cashed just 12 of 49 games vs. conference foes off a straight-up win.  The Trojans come into this game on a 3-game win streak (and 4-game ATS win streak).  Unfortunately for the Bobcats, they're 9-18 ATS on the road vs. foes off a win, including 0-5 ATS their last five.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our Conference USA Total of the Year is on the UNDER in the Charlotte/UAB game.  Charlotte has the worst defense in college football, as it's giving up 46.3 ppg.  Not surprisingly, its last five games have all sailed over the total.  And each of its last four games have totaled more than 75 points.  But this horrendous defense has led to our Over/Under line being a bit inflated here.  If one throws out UAB's first game - a 59-0 win against FCS foe Alabama A&M - then its four games against Division 1 FBS teams have averaged 49.5 ppg.  UAB comes into this game off a 27-point blowout win over Middle Tenn.  And UAB has gone 'under' the total 16 of 24 following a double-digit win.  The Under also falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 64.5%.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over NC State.  In a battle of top 20-ranked clubs, we'll lay the points with the undefeated home team.  Syracuse has stormed out to a 5-0 record.  And it's also 4-1 ATS.  On Saturday, it will welcome a Wolfpack squad which is 5-1 SU, but just 2-4 ATS after dropping its 3rd straight "in Vegas" last weekend.  This will be the Wolfpack's 3rd road game of the season.  It lost ATS its first two.  And it's a wallet-breaking 8-33-2 ATS on the road when unrested, and priced from +7.5 to -7.5 points.  Take the Orange.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Oklahoma State.  TCU comes into this game with an unblemished 5-0 record.  And it's also an undefeated 4-0-1 ATS.  That bodes well for it on Saturday, as over the last 42 years, at Game 6 forward, NCAA teams that were undefeated both SU and ATS have covered the spread 64% of the time, if they weren't favored by 7+ points, and were playing at home, or on a neutral field.  Additionally, the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Last year, the Cowboys crushed the Frogs, 63-17.  But TCU is a solid 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS when playing with revenge, if it was favored at home, and owned an .800 (or better) win percentage.  Take TCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan game.  The Huskies have played all six of their games over the total this season, including their last two games that each totaled > 80 points, which has led to an inflated over/under line for this contest.  Northern Illinois has gone under the total 70% after back to back games where 70+ points were scored.  We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game here.  Take the Under.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Ohio/Western Michigan game.  Both of these teams come into this afternoon's game off high-scoring contests.  The Bobcats put up 55 points last week in a 55-34 blowout of Akron, while Western Michigan lost, 45-23, at home to Eastern Michigan.  The Broncos are 12-6 Under after allowing 40+ points, while Ohio is 16-8 Under after scoring 40+ points.  Take the Under.

At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies.  The Braves have their backs against the wall today, as they must win, or their season will be over.  The good news is that their pitcher, Charlie Morton, has been exceptional in his career in elimination games.  Morton is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA in such games.  That bodes well for Atlanta this afternoon.  Noah Syndergaard will get the start for Philly, and this will be just his 3rd start over the last five weeks.  He was relegated to the bullpen in September following a 4-game stretch where his ERA was 6.14 and his WHIP was 1.50 over that four starts.  But Syndergaard was tabbed for this start over Bailey Falter, who gave up 6 runs over 3 2/3 innings in his last start vs. Atlanta.  The Braves already bounced back from a loss in this series to win Game 2, and they're now 41-19 (+14.2 net games) off a loss this season.  Take the Braves to level this series at 2 games apiece.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:37 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres.  The Dodgers took Game 1 of the NLDS by a 5-3 score and then the Padres responded in kind, taking a 5-3 decision on Wednesday behind Yu Darvish to even this series at 1-1.  Now the series switches to San Diego for Games 3 and 4.  The Padres are taking a calculated risk by starting LH Blake Snell tonight instead of RH Joe Musgrove.  That's the same order they used in the three games against the Mets, but almost anyone would agree that Musgrove is a betting pitcher than Snell, who went 8-10 in 24 starts in a season that had its share of injuries.  The Padres are basically gambling that they can win tonight and then have Musgrove available to close this series out in a Game 4 scenario.  The problem is that in three starts vs. L.A. this season, Snell went 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA.  The Dodgers will go with RH Tony Gonsolin who is a leading candidate for NL Cy Young with a 16-1 record and 2.14 ERA in 24 starts.  L.A. is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego, and 85-40 its last 125 vs. lefties.  Take the Dodgers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Navy.  The Mustangs lost at Central Florida, 41-19, last week.  And that was their third straight loss, and 4th straight ATS defeat.  Meanwhile, Navy pulled off a big upset win against Tulsa, 53-21, as a 4.5-point home dog.  We'll lay the points with SMU tonight, as conference favorites of -3 (or more) points, on a 4-game ATS losing streak, have covered 75.8% since 1980 vs. foes on a 3-game ATS win streak, if their foe was off a SU win the previous week.  Moreover, SMU is a solid 29-18 ATS in Conference games off back to back losses, if it was also on a 2-game ATS losing streak.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders over the Chicago Bears.  Washington has lost its last four games, including a heartbreaking 21-17 defeat last week vs. Tennessee.  The Commanders had the ball first-and-goal on the Titans' 1-yard line, with less than a half-minute to go in the game.  But they couldn't get the ball into the end zone and the game ended with an interception on the 3rd down play.  The Bears also lost last week to the Vikings, 29-22, but covered the 8.5-point spread.  We'll take Washington in this match-up, as road teams have covered the spread 62% since 2005 if they were off back to back losses, not getting more than 3 points, and were playing a non-division foe off an ATS win.  Even better:  the Commanders are 9-0 ATS their last nine meetings vs. the Bears in Chicago.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Louisiana.  The Rajin' Cajuns come into tonight's game off 3 straight losses, but they covered the spread in their most recent game -- a 20-17 home loss to South Alabama.  Meanwhile, Marshall defeated Gardner Webb, 28-7, to start October, but failed to cover the 31.5-point spread.  And that was the Thundering Herd's third straight ATS defeat.  Marshall's been installed as a double-digit favorite tonight.  And NCAA home teams, priced from -7 to -25 points, have been solid (108-75-3 ATS) off three straight ATS losses when matched up against foes off a point spread win.  Lay the points with Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:37 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Cleveland Guardians.  Cleveland's pitching was on display when it successfully swept the Tampa Bay Rays at home in two games to advance to the ALDS.  In those two games, the Rays managed just one total run on seven hits -- and that was in 24 innings as Game 2 went 15 before the Guardians ended it with a walk-off.  But any dreams by fans that they might be able to do the same thing in this series could be quickly dashed.  The Yankees have a more potent offense than that of Tampa and they will open up this series in the Bronx where they've gone 57-24 this season while scoring a league-leading 419 runs (5.17 runs per game).  Although you could argue that Nestor Cortes has been their best starter, the Yanks will open up with #1 RH Gerrit Cole.  The 32-year-old had another outstanding season, going 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 33 starts covering 200 2/3 innings.  The Guardians are 1-5 in the last six meetings and 23-49 in the last 72 match-ups at Yankee Stadium.  And they're a woeful 8-16 (minus 13.4 net games) off a shutout win.  Finally, New York's 49-11 +18.5 net games) as a home favorite of -200+.  Take the Yankees.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:37 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners.  In the upset of the post-season so far -- with the Padres being the runners-up -- the Mariners swept past the Blue Jays in Toronto to now face their division rvals in the ALDS.  But now the hill gets much steeper as they face the defending AL champs.  But there's a big difference between this season's version of the 'Stros and the one from 2021.  Last year, as Houston was getting ready to begin the playoffs, it was doing so without veteran RH Justin Verlander.  Twelve months later and Verlander is not only back, but he's a shoe-in for the AL Cy Young, having gone 18-4 with a league-leading 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 28 starts, covering 175 innings.  And Verlander's post-season numbers -- while not at that level -- are pretty darn good (14-11; 3.40 in 31 games).  But most important is this: Houston is 11-1 in Verlander's last 12 starts vs. Seattle, while the Mariners are 3-4 in Logan Gilbert's seven starts vs. Houston.  Take the Astros.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, ours selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets.  With their backs against the proverbial wall on Saturday night at home, the Mets won Game 2.  With all the talk about the Mets' starting pitching, San Diego's rotation has matched them so far -- and then some.  And it must feel pretty good to have a guy as good as Joe Musgrove ready to go in your #3 position.  The 29-year-old RH gets the ball tonight for his eighth post-season appearance (and first post-season start ever.  Many would argue that he's the best pitcher on the team, with a no-hitter on his resume last season and a darn good campaign in 2022 as well.  In 30 starts this season, Musgrove went 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, with 184 strikeouts in 181 innings.  In 14 road starts this season, Musgrove was 7-3 with a 3.01 ERA.  The Padres also went 6-3 in Musgrove's last nine regular season starts going back to August 20.  Despite the loss in Game 2, the Padres are 5-2 in the last seven meetings going back to June 7.  Take San Diego.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Dallas.  Last week, the Rams were throttled by the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, 24-9.  And that continued coach Sean McVay's point spread failures following back-to-back wins, as the Rams are now 11-28 ATS in that situation.  But the Rams excel following a straight-up loss, as they're 14-6 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in those games.  Even better:  defending Super Bowl champs have covered 72% following a road game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points.  And Dallas is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points off back to back ATS wins.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the San Francisco/Carolina game.  Both of these teams have been playing low-scoring games this season.  San Francisco's 4 games have gone under the total by 11.87 ppg, while Carolina's 4 games have gone under by 1.62 ppg.  This game is a technical play for me, as it falls into Totals systems that have records of 101-51, 78-53, 71-43, 64-34 and 40-12.  Additionally, the Panthers are 8-2 OVER the total following 3+ Unders, while the Niners are 6-2 OVER after 3 straight games under.  Take the 49ers/Panthers Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over San Francisco.  The Niners played an emotional game last week when they took down the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, 24-9, in San Francisco.  Off that big divisional win, I expect a letdown in this non-division road game.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL road favorites have covered just 37% vs. non-division foes off a SU/ATS loss, if our road favorite was off a Monday Night divisional contest.  Take Carolina + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Falcons come into this game with a 4-0 ATS record, and have won their last 2 straight up as underdogs vs. the Browns and Seahawks.  They're also covering the spread by an average of 5.12 ppg (Tampa's covering by just 1.37 ppg).  Unfortunately for the Falcons, Tom Brady's teams have gone 19-0 ATS off a straight-up loss, if they owned a worse point spread differential than their opponent, and their opponent was off back to back wins!  Take Tampa Bay minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Tennessee/Washington game.  The Commanders had trouble scoring in their last two games but they faced two tough defenses in Philadelphia and Dallas.  The Eagles are giving up just 17.5 ppg, while Dallas is surrendering just 15.5 ppg.  But the Titans are giving up 25.25 ppg, so I expect Carson Wentz & Co. to do much better on offense.  The Titans are 4-0 Over their last 4 (and 9-2 Over their last 11) as road favorites.  Take the Titans/Commanders game Over the total.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Seattle.  The Seahawks won a thriller in Detroit last week, 48-45, and are an underdog at New Orleans this Sunday.  We’ll lay the points, as favorites have covered 64.3% since 1980 if their opponent was off an upset win, and scored 48+ points the previous week.  Additionally, the Saints are 10-0 ATS when favored in non-division games, if they were off a loss, owned a losing record, and their opponent was off a win.  Lay the points with the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over Tennessee.  Last week, the Titans upset the Indianapolis Colts, 24-17, as a 4-point road underdog, to move their record to 2-2 SU/ATS this season.  Washington is 1-3 SU/ATS after dropping a 25-10 decision to rival Dallas on the road.  We'll fade the Titans, as they're 0-9-1 ATS in non-division games following an upset win, if matched up against an opponent off a SU loss.  And Washington is a solid 37-21 ATS as an underdog of +10 (or less) points when playing a non-division foe off back to back wins.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:37 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Diego Padres.  With a devasting home loss to the Padres on Friday night, the Mets will turn to ace Jacob deGrom tonight in a must-win Game 2.  Max Scherzer didn't have anything and Yu Darvish had everything in a stunning game that put the Mets in a big hole.  But this is no time to panic, especially with the man considered by most to be the best pitcher in the game set to start for the home team tonight.  34-year-old RH deGrom didn't begin his 2022 campaign until August due to a shoulder issue, but when he finally made it to the mound, he was mostly lights out.  deGrom finished the regular season with a 5-4 record and 3.08 ERA and 0.75 WHIP with a ridiculous 12.75 K:BB ratio (102 strikeouts and only eight walks in 64 1/3 innings).  In his post-season career, deGrom is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA in four starts covering 25 innings.  And in 10 career starts against the Padres covering 70 1/3 innings, deGrom is 6-3 with a 1.28 ERA and 0.74 WHIP.  Take the Mets.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The Eagles stunned Louisville last week, 34-33, as a 13.5-point home underdog.  And that was the first time all season that Boston College covered the point spread (BC is 2-3 SU, and 1-4 ATS, and has failed to cover by an average of 5.25 ppg this season).  The Eagles will remain in Chestnut Hill on Saturday night to take on the highly-ranked Tigers.  Unfortunately for the Eagles, they're a terrible 10-17-1 ATS at home off an upset win, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  And with Clemson in off a 30-20 win over then-No. 10 ranked-NC State, our 0-6 angle is satisfied.  Even worse for the Eagles:  Clemson is a dominant 23-7-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 16-0 ATS vs. < .750 foes that have an average point spread differential less than 3 ppg.  Lay the points with Clemson.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:00 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Texas-San Antonio.  Both teams enter this game with identical 3-2 SU/ATS records.  The Hilltoppers lost at home, 34-27, as a 5-point home favorite to Troy last Saturday, while UTSA defeated Middle Tennessee, 45-30.  This game is a rematch of last season's Conference USA championship game, which was won by the Roadrunners, 49-41.  We'll take Western Kentucky to avenge that defeat, as it is 16-0 ATS on the road when priced from -3 to +12 points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 6 pm, our selection is on Texas-San Antonio and Western Kentucky Under the total.  The Roadrunners have played all five of their games over the total.  And their games have totaled 72, 79, 61, 76 and 75 points.  These extremely high-scoring games have led to a very high Over/Under line for this game.  I think the line is too high.  Indeed, NCAA games with Over/Under lines greater than 71 points have gone under the total 58% of the time if a team's previous two games went over the total, and each totaled more than 71 points.  Additionally, the Under falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 64.1%.  Take the Hilltoppers and Roadrunners Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:07 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Seattle Mariners.  How good does it feel to be the Mariners right now?  They upset the Blue Jays in Game 1 on Friday -- shut them out 4-0 as a matter of fact -- and now they have the reigning Cy Young Award winner ready to go tonight.  And he's pitching against his former team to boot.  But before we move Seattle ahead in the AL brackets, let's consider a few things.  First, there's the fact that the M's were one of the worst-hitting teams in the league this year (.230 overall), and after the All Star break they hit a paltry .221 -- tied for the worst number in the Majors with the Marlins.  Second is the fact that LHP Robbie Ray did not perform all that well away from Seattle this season.  In 14 starts on the road covering 78 2/3 innings, Ray went 6-6 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.  This compared with 3.02 and 1.02 in 18 starts covering 110 1/3 innings at home.  The Mariners ended the regular season 0-5 in Ray's last five starts.  The home team is 6-2 in the last eight meetings of these two clubs.  Take the Blue Jays.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets fired coach Geoff Collins and athletic director Todd Stansbury last month on the heels of a 27-10 loss to UCF (which was Georgia Tech's 9th straight loss to a Division 1 FBS opponent).  Brent Key was named interim head football coach, and his team rewarded him with a 26-21 upset win at Pittsburgh last Saturday.  The Jackets were massive 21.5-point underdogs in that game, and were outgained on the day by the Panthers.  But Georgia Tech took advantage of 3 Pittsburgh turnovers to get the outright win.  But off that upset, I expect a letdown vs. Duke, as losing teams have covered just 33% as home dogs since 1983 off upset wins as a dog of more than 21 points.  Take Duke to rout the Yellow Jackets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Utah.  This is a great Pac-12 battle at the Rose Bowl on Saturday afternoon.  Utah opened its season with an upset loss at the hands of the Florida Gators, 29-26.  But the Utes have rebounded to win and cover each of their next four games, and have been installed as a road favorite here, in Pasadena.  UCLA, for its part, survived a scare by South Alabama in Week 3, and is now 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS.  And both teams are undefeated in Pac-12 play, with 2-0 records (USC and Oregon are also undefeated).  The Bruins have historically been strong as a home underdog, including an awesome 31-12-2 ATS against foes not off a point spread loss.  Meanwhile, Utah is an underwhelming 9-19 ATS as a single-digit road favorite vs. an opponent off a SU win.  And Pac-12 road teams, with a 2-0 (or better) conference record, have covered just 30 of 78 games vs. foes with a winning Pac-12 record.  Take UCLA + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on Toledo and Northern Illinois Under the total.  We had our NCAA Total of the Month in September on the Under in Toledo's game vs. San Diego State, and we'll come right back with the Under in this game vs. Northern Illinois.  The Huskies are 43-24 Under in home conference games.  And the Under also falls into a 98-49 Totals system of mine.  Take the Under.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Missouri.  The Tigers almost pulled off the season's biggest upset last week when they took #1 Georgia down to the wire before falling, 26-22, as a 31-point home dog.  That will be a tough game to bounce back from, as NCAA teams have covered just 31.8% after losing to the defending National Champs by a touchdown or less.  And the SEC road has not been kind to Missouri, as the Tigers are a dismal 7-20 SU and 8-19 ATS at SEC rivals, including 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS when not favored by more than 3 points.  Florida is a powerful 71% since 1980 as a double-digit home favorite vs. losing teams off an ATS win.  Lay the points with the Gators.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs and Jayhawks are both undefeated SU and ATS this season.  TCU is 4-0 SU/ATS following an upset win over the Oklahoma Sooners, 55-24, while Kansas is 5-0 SU/ATS following an upset win over Iowa State, 14-11.  We'll fade TCU as road favorites off an upset win in which they scored 50+ points are an abysmal 1-12 ATS their last 13.  Take Kansas + the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Memphis.  The Coogs have largely stumbled this season, as they're 1-4 ATS, and have lost two games outright as 8.5 and 4.5-point favorites.  Their lone point spread win this season was when they were installed as a 4-point underdog at Texas Tech.  And they covered the spread in that game -- a 33-30 loss.  Houston is 22-11-1 ATS its last 34 as an underdog, including 14-4-1 ATS on the road.  That bodes well for Houston here.  As does the fact that the Cougars are 10-2 ATS off an upset loss at home to a conference rival.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are a wallet-breaking 10-35-1 ATS as a single-digit home favorite!  Grab the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Cleveland Guardians.  The Rays come into the playoffs on a 5-game losing streak, but none of that matters in this short, best-of-three series.  The opening game will feature two former All-Star pitchers in Shane McClanahan (2022) and Shane Bieber (2019, 2021), and the over under line has been installed at 6 runs.  McClanahan has done his best work on the road this season, as he's compiled a 2.08 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in 10 road starts (compared to a 2.89 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home).  Meanwhile, the Guardians have struggled at home vs. top-flight American League starting pitchers with ERAs less than 2.90, as they've won just 34 of 84 games (minus 18.4 net games on the moneyline).  Tampa Bay is a sensational 20-5 (+19.2 net games) on the road when the Over/Under has been 7 runs or less.  And the Rays also excel in the daytime, as they're 91-57 (+21.3 net games).  We'll take Tampa Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:35 pm, in Game 1 of the Double-Header, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Toronto Blue Jays.  They didn't make the playoffs, but no team in baseball can be any more optimistic for the future than the Orioles.  With the lowest team payroll in the Majors, the O's surprised everyone -- perhaps except themselves -- by posting a winning record and staying alive in the AL Wild Card race until the last few days.  With some of the best young players on the planet, no team's fans are looking forward to next season more than those in Baltimore.  The remnants of Hurricane Ian put a damper on things in the area on Tuesday so the O's and Jays will finish the season with a double-header today.  In Game 1, the O's will send out RH Mike Baumann for his fourth start of the season.  The 27-year-old has been used primarily as a reliever this season but the O's have enough faith in Baumann to give him a final start this afternoon.  It's a chance for revenge as the Jays beat Baumann exactly one month ago -- ironically also in the first of a double-header -- here at Camden Yards.  Take the Orioles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over Colorado.  The Rockies won last night, 2-1, which was L.A.'s second straight loss.  But Los Angeles generally bounces back off low-scoring games, as it's 33-5 at home after scoring less than 3 runs.  Even better:  it's 48-16 behind its southpaw, Julio Urias, who has gone 10-1 with a 1.12 ERA over his last 13 outings.   Urias will be opposed by Colorado's Ryan Feltner, who will be making his 21st career start.  The Rockies have gone 6-14 in his other starts, including 2-9 on the road, and 0-8 in games where the Over/Under was less than 9 runs.  Feltner's ERA since August has been 6.29, and he's made just one quality start over his last 13.  Take Los Angeles minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres.  The Phillies have joined the Padres in the final two Wild Card spots in the National League, leaving the Brewers on the outside looking in this season.  Since they will have to settle for the 5th or 6th seed -- that has yet to be determined -- the Pads rested a couple of their regular starters last night against the Giants and they may do the same tonight in their next-to-last game of the regular season.  The NL Cy Young award won't go to the Giants' Carlos Rodon, but the lefty is right in the mix for another top pitching honor.  The 29-year-old All Star is in a tight battle with Corbin Burnes for the NL strikeout title, and he has a 2.88 ERA in 31 starts with a league-leading 12.0 K rate.  In his only other start at Petco Park this season, Rodon threw a complete game, allowing one run one on three hits with 12 strikeouts in a 3-1 Giants victory.  Take San Francisco.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Philadelphia Phillies.  The Astros have locked up the best record and number 1 seed in the American League, so you could say that these final games don't mean anything to them -- just that they want to make sure they stay healthy.  But this one actually does mean something to Houston and its ace RHP, Justin Verlander.  The 'Stros would like to see Verlander get his 18th win tonight as it just might clinch his third Cy Young award.  Verlander not only already leads the AL with a 17-4 record, but he is also out in front with a 1.85 ERA, an .810 win percentage, a 0.85 WHIP, and hit rate of just 6.1.  There are few pitchers in the history of the game that have dominated in inter-league games like Verlander.  In 54 appearances (all starts) against the NL, Verlander is an incredible 37-8 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.  And against the Phillies, the 39-year-old is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts covering 14 innings.  Despite the loss last night, the home team is 6-3 in the last nine meetings of these two teams.  Take the Astros.

At 4:10 pm, in Game 1 of the Double Header, our selection is on the New York Mets minus 1.5 runs over the Washington Nationals.  The only pennant race left in the Majors could come down to the final day.  The Mets surely can't be happy with their getting swept over the weekend by the Braves.  Those three losses (combined with Atlanta's loss yesterday) puts Atlanta up by 1.5 games with an elimination number of just one.  But the good news is that the Braves have to play a pesky Marlins club while the Mets are at home facing the team with the worst record in baseball -- Washington.  So there's certainly reason for optimism in Queens.  Veteran RH Carlos Carrasco will start things off for the home team this afternoon.  After a very good month of July, the 35-year-old has been very inconsistent in August and September.  Carrasco can certainly put the poor starts he's had recently out of everyone's mind with a quality outing tonight.  He's done by far his best work this season at Citi Field.  In 16 starts here covering 87 innings, Carrasco is 9-3 with a 3.52 ERA vs. 6-4 and 4.57 in 12 starts on the road.  Take the Mets minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over Colorado.  Tony Gonsolin will make his return from the Injured List tonight.  And all Gonsolin has done this year is go 16-1, with a 2.10 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.  And the Dodgers are 22-4 his last 26 starts (dating back to last season).  Jose Urena will get the ball for Colorado tonight.  For the season, in 16 starts, Urena has a 5.40 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.  And, dating back to last year, Urena's teams (Brewers, Rockies) have lost 16 of his last 23 starts, including a 13-0 loss to the Dodgers the last time Urena faced them on July 28.  Take Los Angeles minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  With the Padres having secured their Wild Card berth on Sunday (despite losing), the final spot in the National League comes down to the Phillies and Brewers.  The Phils hold a two-game lead after winning their last couple of games over the woeful Nats on Saturday and Sunday (the Brewers didn't help themselves by losing their last two).  The good news for Milwaukee (if there is any) is that while Philly has to go to Houston this week for its last three, the Crew gets to host the D-Backs.  In the first game, the Brewers will send out RHP Brandon Woodruff.  The 29-year-old has been on fire recently.  Over his last four starts, Woodruff is 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA with 42 strikeouts and five walks in 26 innings.  Woodruff's overall numbers are very good, but at home he is in another zone.  In 12 starts this season here at American Family Field covering 72 2/3 innings he is 8-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.85 WHIP.  The Brewers are also 4-1 in Woodruff's five career starts vs. the D-Backs going back to May of 2018.  Take Milwaukee.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over the Carolina Panthers.  The Cardinals made the playoffs last season, but one of their not-so-good games came at the hands of the Panthers, who blew them out, 34-10, as a 7-point road underdog.  And, improbably, that was the sixth straight double-digit win (including 3 straight upsets) by Carolina over Arizona in this series.  The Cardinals have surely gotten off to a worrisome 1-2 start this year.  They know they can’t fall to 1-3 as that might be too deep of a hole from which to dig out.  Part of the reason Arizona is 1-2 is that it was saddled with a difficult opening schedule.  Indeed, its first 3 opponents (Chiefs, Raiders, Rams) also made the Playoffs last season.  But this week's opponent -- Carolina -- was just 5-12 last season, so it's a step-down in class for Arizona.  For technical support, consider that NFL underdogs with a losing record, that made the Playoffs the previous season, have gone 19-2 ATS in Week 4, if they were playing another losing team.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins.  If the Brewers make it into the post-season, they might want to send some flowers to the Cubs and Nationals.  Locked in a tight Wild Card race with the Phillies, the Brewers have watched as the Cubs swept the Phils over three games last week and then the Nats blasted them on Saturday in the first game of a double-header by a 13-4 score.  Without Philly's poor play, Milwaukee would be all but eliminated from playoff contention.  They'll get a chance to pull even with the Phillies this afternoon if they can beat the Marlins, and the Nats can upset Philadelphia.  RHP Freddy Peralta will take the mound for the Brewers.  The 26-year-old was sidelined due to a lat muscle injury early on and then again this month due to shoulder fatigue.  He appears to be healthy now and that's very good news for his team as it tries to grab the final MLB Wild Card spot.  The Brewers are 18-11 in Peralta's last 29 outings with an extra day or two of rest following his previous start.  Meanwhile, the Marlins are 1-3 in Pablo Lopez's four starts vs. the Brewers.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Houston.  The Chargers were upset at home by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, 38-10.  But off that upset loss, I’ll look for Los Angeles to rebound here, as road favorites off 17-point (or worse) upset losses have covered 72% since 1998.  Even better:  the Chargers are 49-29-6 ATS off an upset loss.  And they're also 27-6-2 ATS on the road following a game where they scored less than 14 points, provided they weren't getting more than 10 in the current game.  Lay the points with the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars OVER the total.  The Jaguars are giving up just 12.66 ppg, and outscoring their foes by 15.33 ppg, while Philly is surrendering just 16.66 ppg, and outscoring its foes by 12 ppg.  I think this will be a high scoring affair.  At Game 4 forward, when you get a team (like Jacksonville) holding its opponents to 13 or less points per game, its games have gone Over the total 60.1% since 1980 if the Line was greater than 41 points.  And in matchups between two teams with scoring margins > 7 ppg, those games have gone Over the total 57% since 1980 when the line was greater than 43 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  Washington opened its season with a nice win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but lost to Detroit and Philly in Weeks 2 + 3.  In contrast, the Cowboys opened their season with a loss to Tampa, but rebounded in Weeks 2 + 3 with back to back upset wins, including a 23-16 victory at the New York Giants this past Monday.  Unfortunately for Dallas, NFL teams off a division upset win (and back to back upset wins, overall) have covered just 22% the past 43 seasons vs. division foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for the Cowboys this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that this has been an underdog-oriented rivalry, with the dog going 50-26-1 ATS in the last 77 meetings.  Grab the points with Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30pm, our selection is on the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers minus the points over Rice. This is a huge revenge game for the Blazers, as they were favored by 23.5 points last year at home vs. Rice, but lost, 30-24.  The Owls hung tough at Houston last Saturday, but ultimately succumbed to the Cougars, 34-27, as a 17.5-point road underdog.  UAB had last week off after defeating Georgia Southern two weeks ago, 35-21, as an 11.5-point home favorite.  We played on UAB in that victory, and will come back with them here, on the road, at Rice.  UAB is a solid 14-7-2 ATS when playing with rest vs. a conference foe.  And Rice is a horrid 1-10 ATS when getting 2+ points against a revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with Alabama-Birmingham.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Clemson/North Carolina State game.  Earlier in the week, it appeared as if Columbia, SC may have been in for some real bad weather today.  And the Over/Under line got as low as 39.5 in anticipation of that.  But the city has been fortunate to largely escape the wrath of Hurricane Ian, and today's game will be played under mostly cloudy skies, and with low wind.  So, the Over/Under line has snapped back to where it was last Sunday night.  Last week, the Wolfpack blew out UConn, 41-10, while the Tigers won, 51-45, over Wake Forest.  But I look for a lower-scoring game here, as the Tigers are 16-9 UNDER after playing a game Over the total.  And they're 28-12 UNDER after scoring 45+ points in their previous game.  Moreover, ACC games have gone 55-30 UNDER if both teams went OVER in their previous game.  Take the Wolfpack/Tigers game UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins.  With just six games left in the regular season, the Brewers find themselves in one of the closest playoff races they've ever been involved in -- although this is nothing new for them. In 2019 for example, Milwaukee lost a one-game Wild-Card elimination after holding a 3-1 lead over the Nationals heading into the bottom of the eighth inning.  Even though the sting of that one is behind them, the Brewers just never seem to do anything easily, lately.  And this year is no exception.  RHP Aaron Ashby will take the mound tonight.  The 24-year-old southpaw made one other appearance vs. the Marlins this season.  That was back on May 15, and he held them hitless over 4 innings, and struck out eight.  He'll match up against righty Edward Cabrera, who will be facing the Brewers for the first time in his career.  After last night's loss, Miami is a wallet-breaking 10-32 its last 42 vs. winning teams, and 8-33 (minus 20.4 net games) when priced from +150 to +200 on the road.Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Baylor.  This game has been circled for months on the Cowboys' calendar, as Baylor knocked it off in the Big 12 Title game last December.  The Bears were a touchdown underdog in that game, but won a thriller, 21-16, when the Cowboys' Dezmon Jackson came up inches short of a game-winning TD when he dove for the pylon on a 4th-and-goal play with less than 30 seconds left in the game.  Two weeks ago, Oklahoma State blew out Pine Bluff, 63-7.  And Okie State is 41-12 ATS off a win in which it scored 50+ points.  Additionally, early in the season, rested, revenging road teams have cashed 65.9% when playing with revenge from an upset loss, if not favored by 7+ points in the current game.  Take the Cowboys + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over James Madison.  This is JMU's first season at the Division 1 (FBS) level, and it's off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start, with three impressive victories over Middle Tenn (44-7), Norfolk (63-7) and Appalachian St (32-28).  We played on the Dukes last week, as a touchdown underdog, and it stormed back from an early 28-3 deficit to upend Appalachian St in Boone.  The Dukes return home to Harrisonburg for this game, and have been installed as a greater-than-three-touchdown favorite against the Bobcats.  Off that big emotional win (its first conference game at this level), I'll look for a letdown on Saturday.  Take Texas State + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan.  The Hawkeyes come into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins, as they held their last two opponents (Rutgers, Nevada) to 10 and 0 points, respectively.  For the season, Iowa's given up just 5.7 ppg.  And they're holding their opponents to a mere 2.2 yards per rush.  I like playing on certain defensive-minded underdogs with strong rush defenses.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 5 forward, NCAA underdogs that give up less than 14 points per game, and less than 2.75 ypr, are 122-68 ATS if they come into the game off a momentum-building win.  Even better:  if our puppy is playing at home vs. a conference foe, then our 122-68 ATS angle zooms to 21-5 ATS.  Take Iowa + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Temple.  This is a big revenge game for Memphis which was upset by Temple last season, 34-31, as an 11-point road favorite.  The Owls do come into this game off three straight ATS wins.  But all three of those games were at home.  In Temple's lone road game this season, it was blown out, 30-0, by Duke.  And that continued the Owls' road woes, as they're 3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS away from home, including 0-5 SU/ATS since Oct 8, 2021.  Even worse:  Temple's 0-7 SU/ATS its last seven conference games, while Memphis is a solid 11-6 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over Navy.  The Midshipmen upset East Carolina last Saturday, 23-20, while Air Force ran over Nevada, 48-20.  We'll fade Navy, as it's 5-20 ATS in non-conference games off an upset win, if its opponent was also off a SU win.  Take Air Force.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Kansas State.  Both of these teams pulled off upsets last Saturday.  Texas Tech got the better of Texas, in Lubbock, 37-34, as a 7-point dog.  And, not to be outdone, the Wildcats went into Norman, and stunned the highly-ranked Sooners, 41-34, as a 13.5-point underdog.  K-State will try to make it two-conference-wins-in-a-row on Saturday when the Red Raiders pay a visit to Manhattan.  But Big 12 (or Big 8) Conference home favorites have only covered 32.1% since 1980 off a conference upset road win, if they were matched up against a conference foe which also won its previous game.  Grab the points with Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Washington.  Both of these Pac-12 teams sport 4-0 records in the early going.  Last Saturday, Washington blew out Stanford in Seattle to move to 4-0 SU/ATS, while UCLA went into Boulder and crushed Colorado, 45-17.  We'll grab the points with Chip Kelly's men on Friday, and go against Washington, as Pac-12 road favorites of 8 or less points have covered just 27.7% against foes that don't have a worse record, if our road team was off a win + cover as a home favorite.  Even better:  the Bruins are 23-9-2 ATS as a home dog vs. foes off a point spread win.  Take UCLA + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins.  Corbin Burnes, last season's National League Cy Young award winner, has matched his 2021 win total with 11 victories.  The 27-year-old RHP is going to try to surpass that number tonight and set a new career best with his 12th win.  But more important, Burnes is attempting to lead the Brewers to the post-season.  As of this writing, Milwaukee is a half-game back of the Phillies for the final National League Wild Card spot.  Burnes is 11-8 with a 3.11 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a league-leading 231 strikeouts in 191 innings coming into his 32nd start tonight.  The Brewers are 23-12 in Burnes' last 35 home starts and 29-12 in his last 41 starts in the second half of the season (10-4 in his last 14 September starts).  Meanwhile, Miami is an awful 10-31 its last 41 vs. winning teams, and 8-32 (minus 19.4 net games) when priced from +150 to +200 on the road.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Miami.  Last week, in a battle of undefeated, 2-0 teams, Miami bested Buffalo, 21-19, as a 4.5-point home underdog.  But after toppling the Bills from the ranks of the unbeatens, we'll fade Miami on the road tonight.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, at Game 4 forward, .500 (or better) NFL road dogs have cashed just 32.6% after knocking off an undefeated team, provided they weren't favored by 3+ points in that previous game.  And Miami is a miserable 11-31 ATS off an upset win over a division rival.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins.  The NL Wild Card has been slipping away from the Milwaukee Brewers over the last few weeks.  With just eight games to go, the Brewers are making a final push for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.  Having been eliminated from the NL Central race by the Cardinals, Milwaukee is now focused on finishing ahead of the Phillies.  And Philadelphia is helping them out by having lost seven of its last 10 games.  We played on the Brewers last night vs. the Cardinals, and will come right back with them tonight.  The Brew Crew will send LHP Eric Lauer to the mound for his 28th start of the season.  In 27 starts covering just under 148 innings, Lauer is 10-7 with a 3.96 ERA with 141 strikeouts.  The Brewers are also 16-11 in Lauer's starts this season -- 7-4 in his home starts.  Finally, Miami is 41-64 its last 105 vs. lefties (minus 20.2 net games).  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St Louis Cardinals.  The Brewers will try to close the gap (for the final playoffs spot) between themselves and the Phillies tonight.  The Brewers sit 1.5 games behind the Phils, but enjoy an advantage in the schedule to end the season.  Milwaukee will play its final eight games at home, while Philly will be on the road for its final nine games.  Tonight, Milwaukee will hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff for his 26th start of the season (and 12th here, at home).  Woodruff is 12-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. And he's a perfect 7-0 at home (Milwaukee has won 10 of his 11 home starts).  In his career, Woodruff has made six home starts vs. St. Louis, including one this season (5 IP, 0 ER).  Milwaukee's won four of those six starts.  And it's 35-17 at home with Woodruff in his career.  Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Jose Quintana, has made 10 starts at Milwaukee, including one this year (4 1/3 IP, 4 ER).  In those 10 starts, covering 57 2/3 innings, Quintana's allowed 26 earned runs (4.05 ERA).  The Cardinals are a poor 8-20 (minus 9.2 net games) this season when installed as an underdog of +125 to +175 (and 28-49 their last 47).  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers.  Once -- not long ago -- one of the hottest teams in the AL, the Mariners have been scuffling lately, going 3-7 over their last 10 games.  Fortunately for them, their main competition for the final Wild Card spot -- the Orioles -- have gone 4-6 in their last 10, so Seattle still maintains a four-game lead with just 10 games to go.  So it would be especially beneficial for the M's if their ace could win a couple of starts down the stretch.  LH Robbie Ray was the 2021 Cy Young Award winner with the Blue Jays, but he's 0-2 in his last three starts -- with his ballclub going 0-3 in those.  The Mariners need Ray to step up here in the last week-and-a-half.  The good news is that Ray has been very successful this season against the Rangers, going 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in two starts vs. Texas covering just under 13 innings.  He's also done his best work at home, going 6-4 with a 2.73 ERA in 16 starts here covering 99 innings (vs. 6-6 and 4.69 in 14 starts on the road).  Take the Mariners.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees.  Aaron Judge hit his 60th home run -- tying him with Babe Ruth and putting him one behind Yankee Roger Maris -- on September 20th against the Pirates.  That game was the first of a six-game home stand so it was expected that Judge would hit his historic 61st homer -- and possibly even a bigger 62nd -- at Yankee Stadium in front of the home crowd and the Maris family who have been in attendance.  But Judge didn't hit another one and now the Yanks travel north for a three-game series against the Jays.  Kevin Gausman will go in Game 1 for the home team tonight.  Gausman came to Toronto from San Francisco in the off-season and he's been a big part of the Jays' success, going 12-10 with a 3.32 ERA in 29 starts covering 165 1/3 innings.  And his 7.19 K:BB ratio is a career-best, and leads the league this season.  Gausman comes into this start off of six shutout innings in a no-decision against the Phillies .  And the Jays are 4-2 in his last six starts after allowing no runs in his last.  Meanwhile, the Yankees are 3-15 their last 18 on the road vs. winning teams.  Take Toronto.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Toronto Blue Jays.  There isn't much separating these two teams right now as they prepare to meet for the final time in this regular season.  The Rays get to wrap things up by sending out their Ace LH, Shane McClanahan, who started for the AL in this season's All Star Game.  The 25-year-old is 12-6 with a 2.36 ERA in 26 starts covering just over 156 innings for the Rays.  None of his starts to date have been any more important than this one as the Rays try to position themselves as the #1 Wild Card in the American League.  In two previous starts this season against Toronto, McClanahan is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.67 WHIP, with 15 strikeouts and two walks in 12 innings.  He'll look to keep that dominance going tonight in his home ballpark.  In 17 starts here this season covering 100 2/3 innings, McClanahan is 9-4 with a 2.59 ERA.  The Blue Jays are also 0-4 in their last four games vs. southpaw starters (and 1-7 in their last eight road games vs. lefthanders).  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the New York Jets.  Last year, the Bengals reached the Super Bowl.  This season, they've not yet found similar success.  Indeed, Cincy is 0-2 SU/ATS after its first two games.  But I love the Bengals to bounce back on Sunday.  Since 1980, NFL teams that made the playoffs the previous season have cashed 60% in Game 3 after starting the season winless SU/ATS.  That bodes well for the Bengals here.  As does the fact that the Jets are a horrid 66-116-6 ATS at home vs. foes that don’t have a winning record, including 13-32 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss.  Lay the points with the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Kansas City.  The Colts were shut out, 24-0, by the Jaguars last Sunday.  However, off that embarrassing defeat, we'll take Indy as a big home underdog against the Chiefs.  The Colts are a solid 48-23 ATS off a straight-up loss, while KC has covered just 38 of 93 games as a favorite vs. foes off back to back losses.  And since 1980, NFL teams, like Indianapolis, that scored less than 6 points in an upset loss have gone 104-74-4 ATS in their subsequent game.  Take the home underdog Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Wyoming.  The Cougars were blown out last week, 41-20, at Oregon, while Wyoming upset Air Force, 17-14.  We'll look for BYU to crush the Cowboys, as BYU has covered 70.5% over the last 42 years off a loss, when installed as a home favorite against non-conference foes, including 6-0-1 ATS their last seven when also off a double-digit loss!  Lay the points with Brigham Young.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over USC.  The Beavers enter with a 3-0 SU/ATS record after blowing out Montana State last Saturday, 68-28.  They're a home dog here, so we'll grab the points knowing that conference underdogs of more than 4 points have covered 57% over the last 42 years, if they scored 68+ points in their previous game.  Moreover, USC is an ugly 14-28 ATS away from home off a point spread win.  Take Oregon State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks minus the points over Charlotte.  The Gamecocks were blown out here, at home in Columbia, last Saturday.  The #1-ranked Georgia Bulldogs rolled into town, and roasted the Gamecocks, 48-7.  But off that debacle, I love Shane Beamer's men to rebound on Saturday night.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NCAA home favorites of -16 (or more) points, off a home loss by 16+ points, have covered 82.3% vs. non-conference foes off a win.  With Charlotte off a 42-41 win at Georgia State, we'll fade the 49ers in this game.  Lay the points with South Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Wisconsin.  We played on the Buckeyes last week as our NCAA Favorite of the Month, and were rewarded with a 77-21 blowout over Toledo, as a 31-point favorite.  This Saturday, the Buckeyes are hosting Wisconsin in their Big 10 Conference opener.  Ohio State has won 10 straight conference openers, and is 5-0-1 ATS their last six (and 26-3 SU, 18-7-4 ATS their last 29).  Even better:  the Buckeyes have won 11 of the last 12 meetings, and are 8-3-1 ATS in those games (and 4-0-1 ATS here in Columbus).  We'll lay the points on Saturday night, as undefeated teams have covered 65.1% of conference home games since 1980 off a home game where they covered the spread by 25+ points.  Take the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over LSU.  The Tigers pulled off a big upset win last week vs. SEC rival, Mississippi State.  But off that emotional win, we'll fade the Tigers in this non-conference game.  Since 1980, LSU has covered just 30% of non-conference games off upset wins, while the Lobos are 18-8 ATS vs. foes off an upset win (including 5-0 vs. non-conference foes).  Take New Mexico + the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes and Wisconsin Badgers UNDER the total.  Last week, we had our biggest play of the season-to-date on Ohio State, and the Buckeyes rolled up 77 points against the Toledo Rockets — the 5th most points scored in school history. But off that high-scoring win, I’ll look for a much lower-scoring affair here. For technical support, consider that NCAA teams have gone Under 55% over the past 10 years after scoring 60 (or more) points in their previous game.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi + the points over Tulane.  The Green Wave pulled off a big upset last week when it went into Manhattan, KS, and upset the Wildcats, 17-10, as a 13-point road dog.  We'll fade Tulane on Saturday evening, as it's 2-18 SU and 3-17 ATS off an upset road win, including 0-9 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Grab the points with Southern Mississippi.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays.  The Blue Jays and Rays battled last night here in St. Pete.  It took a four-run eighth inning from the home team to break a 6-6 tie that resulted in a big win for the Rays.  With that result, the Rays and Jays now have identical records on the season and they could come out of the weekend that way if they split the next two days.  The Jays will try to bounce back this evening behind the man who has been an ace for them pretty much all season.  Big RH Alek Manoah will get his 30th start of the season tonight.  The 24-year-old is 14-7 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in just under 184 innings.  As you might expect from a 6 foot 6 inch, 285 lb starter, Manoah isn't likely to wear down late in the season.  In fact, you could argue that September has been his best month so far, as he has gone 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in four September starts covering 28 innings (and the Blue Jays are 8-1 in his nine career September starts).  In 15 road starts this season, Manoah is 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA in 93 innings.  The Jays are also 8-2 in their last 10 after losing the first two of a series, and 73-47 vs. righties (compared to 11-20 vs. lefties).  Take Toronto.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Rice.  The Cougars have dominated this cross-town rivalry since 2011, with 6 straight wins (5-1 ATS).  Houston does come into this game off back to back losses, but it's 9-2 ATS off back to back losses, and 19-8 ATS when it owned a losing point spread record.  Look for Houston to rebound off its losses, and blow out Rice.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Toledo/San Diego State game.  We had our biggest play of the season-to-date last week on the Ohio State Buckeyes over Toledo, so we were not surprised when the Buckeyes exploded for 77 points, the 5th-most in school history.  Going into that game, Toledo had allowed just 1 touchdown and 10 total points.  So I expect a much better defensive effort on Saturday vs. the Aztecs, who mustered just 7 points in a 35-7 loss to Utah.  Toledo has gone 7-1 Under as a road favorite of -6 or less points.  Meanwhile, the Aztecs are 40-20-1 Under the total their last 61, 21-7 their last 28 as an underdog, and 18-7 Under their last 25 off a loss.  This will be a very low-scoring game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Florida.  The Volunteers come into this game with a 3-0 record, and also play with revenge from a 24-point blowout loss at Florida last season.  It's true that Florida has won the last five meetings.  But revenge-minded favorites, with an .875 (or better) win percentage, have covered 63.8% vs. conference rivals over the last 20 seasons, if they also lost to their opponent two meetings back.  That bodes well for the Volunteers on Saturday.  As does the fact that Florida is a dreadful 0-8 ATS its last eight road games.  Lay the points with Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes + the points over Appalachian State.  James Madison has been impressive in its first two games as a Division 1 FBS team.  It opened with a 44-7 blowout of Middle Tennessee, as a 5-point home favorite.  And then it walloped Norfolk State, 63-7.  It's been installed as a touchdown underdog at 2-1 Appalachian State, which checks in off back to back wins over Texas A&M and Troy State.  We'll grab the points, as .500 (or better) underdogs of +7 (or more) points have covered 60.9% since 1980 after back to back games where they gave up 7 or less points.  Take James Madison.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Maryland.  The Wolves have picked up where they left off last season, as they're 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.  Over the last two seasons, Jim Harbaugh's troops are 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS, including 9-1 ATS when priced from -5 to -50 points.  One of those wins last season was against this Maryland team.  Michigan was favored by 16, and won 59-18.  This season, the point spread is similar to last year.  And I expect a similar result.  Maryland is a horrid 4-29 SU and 7-26 ATS vs. winning teams.  And it's 0-13 ATS when playing a .600 (or better) foe, and getting 14+ points.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Baltimore Orioles.  The Astros have once again locked up the AL West Division -- and rather easily.  The only thing left for the 'Stros is to make sure they finish the season ahead of the Yankees, and therefore with the best record in the American League.  So, every game is still important to Houston.  The Astros will send 27-year-old RHP Jose Urquidy to the mound tonight in the second game of the series.  Urquidy has had two poor starts in a row but they were both at home.  In his last three road starts, he has allowed just three runs on 15 hits in 21 2/3 innings with 18 strikeouts and three walks.  The Astros are also 13-4 in the last 17 here at Orioles Park, and 13-6 off a shutout loss.  Meanwhile, the Orioles are 3-8 as a home underdog behind Dean Kremer.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners minus 1.5 runs over the Oakland Athletics.  If there's a better rookie starter in the American League than the Mariners' George Kirby, you'd be hard pressed to find him.  The 24-year-old RHP is 7-4 with a 2.98 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 123 strikeouts and just 15 walks in just under 118 innings.  With the seasons that Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman are having, there is no chance Kirby will win the AL Rookie of the Year, but if there was an award for best first-year starter, then Kirby would be a shoe-in (the Twins' Joe Ryan and Braves' Spencer Strider are second-year rookies).  Kirby will try for his eighth win this afternoon and he certainly doesn't need any more incentive than being part of a team which is in the heat of a post-season race.  The M's are currently in a battle with the Jays and Rays for the top Wild Card spot, with less than three games separating them.  Kirby may be a first-year rookie, but he's already had three solid starts against the A's, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.50 ERA in 18 innings vs. Oakland.  Take the Mariners minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland A's.  Yesterday, the A's held Seattle to a single run, in a 4-1 victory.  We'll look for the M's to bounce back tonight, as they're 33-22 (+19.0 net games) after scoring less than 2 runs.  The Mariners' lefty ace, Robbie Ray, will get the start tonight.  And the southpaw has dominated Oakland with a 2.30 career ERA in his five starts (his teams have gone 4-1).  The A's have struggled this season at home vs. lefties, as they're 4-16.  And Seattle's a super 30-10 as a road favorite, while Oakland's 25-50 (minus 12.9 net games) as a home dog.  Take the Mariners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Detroit Tigers.  Austin Voth had been getting regular starts for the Orioles since coming over from the Nationals in the beginning of June.  But due to some shuffling last week, Voth came into the game against the Nationals from the bullpen for an inning of relief work.  And wouldn't you know it but he picked up the victory in that game six days ago.  The Orioles have now won all three of of the September games that the 30-year-old RHP has appeared in (including two starts).  He's back to his starting role tonight at home in the second game of this series against the Tigers.  The O's were sloppy in Game 1 on Monday and lost a game that they desperately needed to win (and were expected to).  In the crowded AL Wild Card race, every game is critical for Baltimore.  The Orioles are 8-0 in Voth's last eight home starts.  Take Baltimore.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Los Angeles Angels.  Los Angeles will try to sweep this 4-game series this afternoon after defeating the Mariners, 5-1, yesterday.  That was the 2nd straight game the M's scored just a single run.  But Seattle is a solid 25-17 (+12.4 net games on the moneyline) after scoring less than 2 runs, 65-48 (+22.0 net games) in daytime affairs, and 72-61 (+22.9 net games) off a loss.  This pitching matchup will feature lefty Jose Suarez for the Angels, and righty Logan Gilbert for Seattle.  Gilbert comes into this game off one of his best 3-game stretches of the season.  He's allowed just 1 earned run over his previous three starts (17 innings; 0.53 ERA; 0.88 WHIP; 23 strikeouts).  And Seattle is 16-3 behind Gilbert after he's given up less than 3 earned runs over back-to-back starts.  Suarez has made four home starts in his career vs. Seattle, and has given up 12 earned runs over 20 1/3 innings (5.31 ERA; 1.18 WHIP).  The Angels lost three of those four games.  Meanwhile, Gilbert has a 3.95 ERA in his career starts vs. LA, with a WHIP of 1.28.  He's faced the Angels four times here in L.A., and the Mariners are 4-0.  Los Angeles is 6-15 as a home dog this season.  Even worse, it has been a home underdog 13 times with Suarez on the mound since he entered the league in 2019, and is 2-11 in those games.  Take Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last week, we played on the Minnesota Vikings against Green Bay, and were rewarded with a 23-7 blowout win.  But off that loss, we'll take Aaron Rodgers & Co. to bounce back on Sunday.  And when they're playing the Bears, they generally do bounce back off losses.  Indeed, Green Bay is 19-1-1 ATS its last 21 (including 13-0 ATS its last 13) vs. Chicago if Green Bay failed to cover the spread in its previous game.  And with Aaron Rodgers under center, the Packers are a solid 63-37-3 ATS when not favored by 13 points against an opponent NOT off an ATS loss.  Take Green Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Las Vegas.  The Cardinals were blown out by Kansas City, 44-21, in Week 1, while Las Vegas lost to the Chargers.  We'll look for Arizona to rebound on Sunday, as underdogs off a double-digit loss in Week 1 have covered 69.4% since 1991 if they owned a winning record the previous season.  Moreover, the Raiders are an atrocious 25-52-1 ATS as a favorite, including 0-9 ATS their last nine.  Grab the points with Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.