Sports Picks & Predictions

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Kansas City.  The Chargers are a sensational 111-61 ATS as a road underdog of +2 or more points, including 29-9 ATS within the division when the Chargers have owned a losing record.  Los Angeles has covered 5 of the last six in this series with its only point spread loss as a 3-point underdog in overtime, when it lost by 6.  Take Los Angeles.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + over Green Bay.  The Denver Broncos come into this game at Mile High Stadium with a 1-5 record (.167), while Green Bay is slightly better, at 2-3 (.400), for a win percentage differential of .233.  We’ll take Denver as a home dog, as it is a jaw-dropping 50-14-4 ATS at home when not favored by more than 2 points, if its opponent didn’t have a win percentage differential of .333 (or better), including a perfect 13-0-2 ATS if the Broncos’ win percentage was .333 (or less).  Additionally, home underdogs on 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have covered 62% since 1980 vs. non-division foes off a loss.  Take the Broncos.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 3-2 on the season, but it’s a phony 3-2, as they have been outscored by an average of 6.2 points per game, and they have failed to cover the point spread by an average of 4.5 points per game.  And they’ve been outyarded in every single game — even their three wins.  They defeated Cleveland by 4 points, but the Browns outgained them by 153 yards.  They won by 5 over the Raiders, but Las Vegas outgained them by 29 yards.  And then, in their last game, they defeated the Ravens by 7 but Baltimore outgained them by 46.  In contrast, the Rams have outscored their opponents by 3.5 points per game, and have covered the point spread by 5.16 points per game.  And they’ve outgained four of their 6 opponents, even the San Francisco 49ers, though they lost that game by 7.  I’ll lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Patriots have been installed as a big home underdog vs. their division rival.  And New England will be looking to snap a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  We'll grab the points, as New England is 28-5 ATS as an underdog of 4+ points, when its W/L percentage was .400 (or less), and it was not off an ATS win, including 12-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Cleveland.  The Browns stunned the previously unbeaten San Francisco 49ers last week, when they won, 19-17, as a 9.5-point underdog.  But off that huge upset win, we’ll fade Cleveland as a road favorite.  Indeed, since 1984, .500 (or better) road favorites have covered just 27.5 percent off an upset win as a 5-point (or greater) underdog.  The Colts also come into this game off a blowout loss, and they’re 54-30 ATS off a straight-up defeat.  Take the Colts + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  This is the first meeting between these NFC South Division rivals, and underdogs have been great in games between NFC South Division rivals when it was the first meeting of the season, as they've gone 37-19-1 ATS.  Tampa's 3-9-1 ATS its last 13 as a favorite, and also 7-25-3 ATS off a loss in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 5.  Finally the Falcons are off an upset loss to Washington, and fall into a 163-105 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with losing SU/ATS records off losses.  Take the Falcons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Stanford.  The Cardinal came back from a 29-0 deficit to stun the Colorado Buffaloes, 46-43, as a 13.5-point underdog, in double-overtime last Saturday.  But off that huge upset win, we'll fade Stanford on Saturday night vs. UCLA.  The Cardinal are a wallet-breaking 1-8 ATS as a home underdog of more than 14 points, while UCLA is a reliable 14-6 ATS as a double-digit road favorite.  Even worse:  double-digit home underdogs have covered just 37.2 percent of conference games since 1980 off outright wins as a double-digit conference road underdog.  Take UCLA minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Under in the USC/Utah game.  Something's gotta give tonight, as USC is scoring 47.1 ppg, while Utah is giving up just 12.1.  Utah has played five of its six games Under the total this season.  And I'll look for another low-scoring Utes game, as NCAA football games have gone under 60.3% in match-ups between a great defense which gave up 15.5 (or less) points and a great offense (which scored 47+ points).  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes + the points over Clemson.  The 'Canes have had a tough couple of weeks.  First, they lost to Georgia Tech when their head coach, Mario Cristobal inexplicably ran a rushing play rather than kneeling down to end the game.  Miami fumbled.  Then Georgia Tech won miraculously on the game's final play.  Last week, the Hurricanes were competitive in defeat, and fell, 41-31, to the undefeated North Carolina Tar Heels.  This week, Miami is back home, and is an underdog vs. Clemson.  Miami is a super 18-4 ATS as an underdog of +10 (or less) points, if it was off a loss, and its opponent was off a win (and 6-0 ATS if Miami was off back to back losses).  Take the Hurricanes + the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on Army and LSU to go Under the total.  The Black Knights are a rush-heavy team that has gone UNDER the total 64-47-1 their last 112 games.  This season, they've averaged 16.1 passing plays, and 47.8 rushing plays.  So, 74.7% of their plays have been on the ground, and that chews up the clock.  Army has gone 20-2 UNDER the total when installed as an underdog of +9 (or more) points (and 11-0 UNDER when getting more than 14).  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Kansas State.  The Horned Frogs blew out BYU, 44-11, last week, as a 4.5-point favorite, for their best win of the season.  Now, they'll take on Kansas State, and the Frogs have had this game circled on their calendar for months.  When these two teams last met, Kansas State handed the Horned Frogs their first loss of the season when the Wildcats won, 31-28, in overtime, in the Big 12 Title game.  When playing with revenge, TCU is a solid 31-20 ATS as a road underdog, as well as 13-4 ATS off a win by more than 30 points.  Grab the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels minus the points over Colorado State.  The Rebels are on a roll, as they've covered the spread in every game this season.  And outside of their road game against #2-ranked Michigan, they've scored 40+ points in every game this season.  That bodes well for UNLV, as home teams have covered 56.2% since 1980, if they were off 3 blowout wins by 17+ points, in which they scored 40+, and covered by 10+ points.  The Rebels should have no problem scoring on Colorado State, which ranks 127th of 130 teams in Total defense, giving up 462.7 yards per game.  Colorado State has also given up 40+ points in three of its five FBS games this season, and are also a poor 3-8 ATS on the road off a win.  Take UNLV.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Spartans minus the points over Utah State.  The Aggies had their 2-game win streak snapped by Fresno St last week, and are now 3-4 on the season.  Today, they'll travel to San Jose, and face a Spartans team looking for its first win in the series since 2008.  San Jose should, however, be confident, as it comes into this game off its first FBS win this season.  And it was impressive, as it went into New Mexico, and blew out the Lobos, 52-24, as a 6-point road favorite.  That bodes well for San Jose tonight, as single-digit home favorites have covered 58% of conference games off a road conference blowout by 28+ points, provided they covered the spread in that blowout by 21+ points.  Even better:  the Aggies are a soft 2-16 SU and 7-11 ATS when installed as a road underdog vs. a revenge-minded foe.  Finally, the Spartans are 21-3 SU and 17-6 ATS as a favorite off a straight-up win, if they are playing an opponent off a loss.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls + the points over Texas-San Antonio.  The Owls will attempt to win their 4th straight in this series, as they won the first three meetings between the schools (in 2014, 2019 and 2020).  Both the Roadrunners and Owls come into this American Athletic Conference showdown off SU/ATS wins.  UTSA blew out UAB last Saturday, 41-20, as a 9 point favorite, for its biggest win this season, while Florida Atlantic also had its most impressive win of 2023 when it upset South Florida, 56-14, as a 3-point road underdog.  Off that momentum-building upset, blowout win, we'll grab the points with the Owls, as home underdogs have covered 61.2% over the past 40 years following a blowout win by 42+ points, when matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS win.  Take Florida Atlantic.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Miami-Ohio.  Both of these teams enter on 6-game win streaks, and this game could be a preview of the MAC Title game in December.  We played (and won) on Miami-Ohio three times this season, including each of the past 2 weeks.  But will switch gears this Saturday, and go against the RedHawks.  Last week, Toledo escaped Muncie, Indiana with a 13-6 victory over Ball State.  The good news for Toledo is that MAC Conference road favorites have gone 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS in conference games after scoring less than 14 points.  Take Toledo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Illinois.  The Illini have been installed as a short home underdog.  Unfortunately, they're 17-53-3 ATS at home when priced from +3 to -12.5 points.  And they're 20-52-1 ATS at home when playing an opponent off a straight-up loss.  With Wisconsin in off a 15-6 defeat at the hands of Iowa, we'll lay the points with the Badgers.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Tennessee.  The Volunteers upset Nick Saban's men last season in a thriller, 52-49, as a 9-point home underdog.  But we'll lay the points with 'Bama on Saturday, as Nick Saban's teams have gone 27-11 ATS in conference games when playing with revenge from a loss suffered when he was head coach.  Additionally, Alabama is 45-25 ATS following a win, in which it lost against the spread.  With Alabama in off a 24-21 victory as a 19-point favorite vs. Arkansas, we'll take the Crimson Tide on Saturday afternoon.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Navy Midshipmen + the points over Air Force.  The Midshipmen shut out Charlotte, 14-0, on the road in their last game.  And NCAA teams off road shutout wins the previous week have gone 177-120 ATS in the regular season, including 53-30-2 ATS as an underdog.  Navy has also covered 16 of the last 21 times it was an underdog vs. Air Force.  We'll go with the underdog Midshipmen.  Take Navy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Arkansas.  The Razorbacks have lost their last five games, and now return home to take on Mississippi State, which won, 41-28, over Western Michigan in its last game (but failed to cover the 21.5-point spread).  We'll go against Arkansas, as SEC Conference favorites of -20 points or less (or PK) are a dreary 188-270-3 ATS (41 percent) at home off a straight-up loss.  Even worse:  if their opponent failed to cover the spread by more than a touchdown in its previous game, then our 270-188 stat zooms to 94-51-1 ATS (65 percent).  Take the Bulldogs + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Georgia Tech.  BC upset Army, 27-24, as a 2.5-point road underdog in its last game, while Georgia Tech shocked Miami, 23-20, as a 19-point dog.  The Eagles are 25-14 ATS their last 39 as an underdog vs. ACC Conference foes.  Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is now 9-2 its last 11 as an underdog, but 0-10 ATS its last 10 as a favorite vs. FBS (Division 1) schools.  Take Boston College + the points.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers 'over' the total.  The Astros got their bats out in Game 4 on Thursday night and they plated 10 runs to even this series which plays its final game in Arlington tonight (Game 5).  Game 1 in Houston featured the same two starters as tonight (RH Justin Verlander vs. LH Jordan Montgomery) and that was a 2-0 Rangers victory, but that's not the way these games normally go.  In fact in seven of the last 11 meetings between these two, one or both of the clubs have scored double-digit runs.  So don't expect a repeat of Game 1 as both of these teams know the importance of jumping out to an early lead and whoever wins this game will be just one victory away from the World Series.  Yes, LH Jordan Montgomery has been very good in this post-season but it's unlikely he would go more than six innings tonight and the Rangers used a ton of pitchers in Game 4 so their bullpen is stretched very thin right now.  The over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings of these two.  Take the 'over.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars Over the total.  The Saints have played all 6 games in the 30s this season, and this Over/Under has been priced accordingly.  But the Jaguars have played four of their six games at 45+ points, with three topping 50 points, including last week's 37-20 victory vs. Indianapolis.  Jacksonville's gone OVER 13 of 18 games when the O/U line was 43 points or less.  And I look for a relatively high scoring game on Thursday.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Jaguars blew out Indianapolis last week for their 3rd straight win and cover, while the Saints were upset at Houston, 20-13.  We'll play against Jacksonville on Thursday, as road teams off 3 SU/ATS wins are an awful 16-37 ATS vs. foes that were upset on the road the previous week.  Additionally, the Saints are a super 67-34 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a win.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over James Madison.  The Dukes come into this game with an undefeated 6-0 record, but I like Marshall to hand them their first defeat of the season.  Marshall will be looking to redeem itself after two road losses at NC State (48-41) and Georgia St (41-24).  And the Herd are 12-3-1 ATS at home off a SU/ATS loss when not favored by more than 3 points.  Even better:  Sun Belt conference underdogs (or PK) are a solid 87-59 ATS in conference games off back to back SU/ATS losses.  And undefeated teams, off back to back ATS wins, with a 5-0 (or better) record, have covered just 14% as home favorites of less than 25 points vs. conference foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Marshall + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls + the points over Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane come into this American Athletic Conference game off a loss, 20-17, at Florida Atlantic.  Unfortunately, they're a horrid 9-43-2 ATS at home off a loss, when matched up against a non-winning team, and not favored by 17+ points.  That doesn't bode well for Tulsa.  Nor does the fact that Rice is also off a SU/ATS loss, 38-31, vs. UConn.  And the Owls are 62-45 ATS in conference games off a SU/ATS conference defeat.  Take Rice + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Philadelphia Phillies.  So much for NL "small ball."  The Phillies have dominated their opposition in this post-season, not by getting on base and stealing second or bunting players over.  They've done it by way of the long ball -- 19 in their eight post-season games so far.  Many of those have been of the solo variety, but that hardly matters when you're sending balls over the fence as often as they are.  That could change with a trip to the Desert.  The Phillies won't be in their homer-friendly ballpark tonight but instead in a place where the long ball doesn't happen nearly as often.  They'll also be facing a starting pitcher that they've never seen before in 25-year-old rookie RH Brandon Pfaadt.  Pfaadt doesn't have numbers that jump off the page at you, but guess what else he doesn't do?  He doesn't give up home runs when pitching at Chase Field (only one long ball in his last five starts here).  And Pfaadt shut down the Dodgers in his only NLDS start against them (4 1/3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER).  Take the D-Backs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Bills come into this game off a loss last Sunday in London.  I will fade Buffalo, as NFL teams have gone 4-18 ATS in the United States following a game in London.  Moreover, the Giants have lost all five games ATS this season.  However, underdogs off 5 ATS losses have covered 64.8%, including 12-3 ATS when getting more than 11 points.  Grab the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over Detroit.  The Lions come into this Sunday's game on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  But they will have to play a rested Tampa Bay team coming off its bye week.  We'll grab the points with Tampa, as Detroit is an ugly 3-26 ATS off a home win, if it owned a win percentage of .692 (or better), including 0-13 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up win.  Take Tampa Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  New England was shut out, 34-0, last week by New Orleans.  And that was the 4th time the Patriots have been shut out under coach Bill Belichick.  How did New England do after those three previous shutout defeats?  They went 3-0 SU/ATS, and scored 31, 40 and 33 points.  This week, they'll play a Raiders team off a SU/ATS win last Monday vs. Green Bay.  We'll grab the points with the Patriots, as they've gone 22-0-1 ATS on the road in the regular season off a loss when playing an opponent off a win.  And Las Vegas is 29-68-1 ATS as a favorite vs. a foe off a loss.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders Over the total.  The Patriots were shut out, 34-0, last week by the Saints.  And New England has scored just 18 points over its three previous games -- each of which went under the total.  But off this string of low-scoring games, we'll look for a higher scoring game, here, as NFL games have gone Over the total 62.1% over the last 36 seasons, if a team scored 25 points or less over its three previous games, and each went under the total.  Even better:  the Patriots have gone Over 64% after not scoring 10 or more points in their previous game.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over the Chicago Bears.  The Bears blew out Washington by 20 points for their first win of the season, while Minnesota also has just 1 victory, which was an 8 point win at Carolina two weeks ago.  The Vikings have been saddled with a difficult opening schedule, as their four losses have all been to teams that made the playoffs last season, including Philadelphia and Kansas City, the two Super Bowl participants.  But now, the Vikings will play the Bears who, like Carolina, is one of the worst teams in the league.  Minnesota is 15-9-1 its last 25 as road favorites, while Chicago is 1-13 SU and 3-10 ATS as home underdogs.  And NFC North division teams off a loss are 68-43 ATS vs. division rivals off a win.   Lay the points with the Vikings.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  The Panthers are 0-5 straight-up, and 1-4-1 ATS, including 0-3 SU/ATS in their last 3 games.  I look for Carolina to break through with its first ATS win this season, as underdogs of more than 5 points have gone 121-79 ATS in non-division games off 3 SU/ATS losses.  Take the Panthers + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Houston Texans Over the total.  The Saints shut out the New England Patriots last week, 34-0.  And that game went under the total.  But off that shutout win, I'll look for a higher scoring game at Houston, as NFL teams off shutout wins have gone over the total 59% in games with O/U lines > 42.  Additionally, the Texans are 26-12 Over at home following back to back Unders.  This will be a high scoring game.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Seattle.  The Bengals got off the schneid last week when they blew out Arizona, 34-20, for their first point spread win of the season.  They'll now host the Seahawks, who had last week off following a 24-3 annihilation of the New York Giants.  The Bengals are still undervalued, in my estimation, and I'll lay the short number.  Cincinnati is a powerful 17-0-1 ATS when not laying 7 or more points, if its foe had a Win Percentage between .400 and .823.  And Seattle is 17-32 ATS off a win by more than 20 points.  Take the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over San Francisco.  It's unclear if Deshaun Watson will return from his rotator cuff injury this week.  If he can't go, then PJ Walker will start for Cleveland.  I'll take the points with the Browns, as I look for them to bounce back strong off their bye week.  Indeed, home underdogs of more than 5 points off their Bye week have gone 33-12 ATS vs. unrested foes.  And NFL home dogs (or PK) off blowout losses by more than 2 TDs have covered 61.8% vs. foes off blowout wins by more than 2 TDs.  Grab the points with Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Boise State/Colorado State game.  The Broncos come into this road game off 4 straight Overs.  I look for a lower-scoring game on Saturday night, as Mountain West conference teams off 4+ Overs have proceeded to go Under the total 61.1 percent of the time.  Even better:  the Rams have gone Under the total 12-1 at home when the game had a point spread of 6 or more points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack + the points over Duke.  The Blue Devils come into this game off a SU/ATS home loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago.  That lowered Duke's record to 4-1 on the season.  And it's also undefeated in ACC Conference play.  We'll play against Duke on Saturday night, as ACC teams off a loss have not fared well as favorites vs. Conference foes that have a worse conference record, as well as a worse record, overall.  Even worse:  Duke has covered just 16 of 50 as a favorite off a straight-up loss.  Take NC State + the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over UAB.  The Blazers blew out South Florida, 56-35, as a 3.5-point home underdog last Saturday.  Unfortunately, UAB is a miserable 0-7 ATS off a win, and 20-40 ATS after scoring 34+ points.  Take Texas-San Antonio minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Kentucky/Missouri game.  The Wildcats return home after getting shellacked, 51-13, at Georgia last week.  We had a huge play on the Bulldogs, so that result was not unexpected.  But I expect the Wildcats to play much better on Saturday night at home, and especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Going into that Georgia game, Kentucky was allowing just 15.2 ppg.  The Wildcats have gone Under in 31 of their last 45 SEC Conference games, including 13-2 Under when the O/U line was between 48 and 56 points.  Take the Under.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Under in the LSU/Auburn game.  The LSU Tigers have scored an average of 44.8 ppg this season.  And all 6 games have gone Over the total.  I expect a much lower-scoring game on Saturday, as Auburn owns the best defense the Tigers will have faced yet this season.  Auburn is giving up just 322.8 yards per game, 5.19 yards per play, and 18.20 ppg.  Indeed, the Tigers have held their five opponents to an average of 15.33 points below their scoring average.  And they've gone 58-38 Under their last 96.  Finally, this Auburn/LSU series has gone 17-6 under, including each of the five meetings over the previous five years.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Kansas State. We played on the Red Raiders last week, and they rewarded us with a blowout win, 39-14, at Baylor.  That triumph moved Texas Tech's record to 3-3, and it was the Red Raiders' second straight win by more than 20 points.  We'll take Texas Tech to continue its win streak on Saturday, as it's a powerful 38-11-2 ATS at home when it didn't own a winning record.  Lay the opoints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons minus the points over Wyoming.  This is a big revenge game for Air Force, which lost, 17-14, at Wyoming last season as a 16.5-point favorite.  Last Saturday, the Cowboys pulled off a big upset last week when they defeated the then-unbeaten Fresno State Bulldogs, 24-19.  Unfortunately, teams off upset wins over undefeated foes have burned money in their following game, and especially on the road against revenge-minded foes.  We'll lay the points with Air Force.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd over Georgia State.  The Panthers were upset, 28-7, here at home by Troy in their previous game.  We'll grab the points with Marshall, as it's cashed 67% as an underdog (or PK) vs. foes off a loss, while the Panthers have covered just 13 of 32 at home off a SU loss.  Take Marshall.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Arizona.  The Wildcats lost in Overtime last week, 43-41, to #10-ranked Southern Cal.  They now have to dust themselves off that difficult loss, and travel to Pullman to play the #19-ranked Cougars.  I generally don't like playing on teams off such heartbreaking losses, and I won't make an exception here.  And especially given how poorly the Wildcats have played off an ATS win away from home vs. winning foes when the Wildcats were an underdog of less than 20 points.  Since 2009, they're 0-16 ATS.  Finally, Washington State is a perfect 9-0 ATS at home off a loss when not getting more than 2 points.  Take the Cougars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Louisville.  We had a huge play on the Cardinals last week, and were rewarded with an upset victory over Notre Dame, as a 6.5-point home underdog.  But off that big upset win, we'll fade the Cards as a favorite vs. Pitt.  Since 1980, teams off upset wins over Notre Dame have gone 20-37-3 ATS, including 6-21-1 ATS when favored by less than 17 points (or PK).  And the Cardinals are a wallet-busting 5-24-1 ATS away from home off back to back wins, if they were matched up against a foe not off a SU/ATS win.  Take Pittsburgh + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Oregon.  Both of these teams come into this huge Pac-12 Conference game with 5-0 records.  And the Ducks are also 5-0 ATS, to boot.  We'll go against Oregon, as Pac-12 road underdogs, with a 2-0 (or better) record inside the conference, have covered just 32.3% since 1980 vs. Pac-12 foes with a winning conference record.  The Huskies are an awesome 25-10 ATS when priced from -2 to -8.5 points.  And Washington also falls into 72-26 and 60-23 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home teams with win percentages > .750.  Take the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus the points over Western Michigan.  We played on the RedHawks last week at home vs. Bowling Green, and Miami shut out the Falcons, 27-0.  That was Miami's 5th straight win and cover, and 2nd straight game where it kept its opponent out of the end zone.  Today, Miami will travel to Kalamazoo to take on the Broncos.  And Miami will be looking to snap an 8-game losing streak in the series.  I like the RedHawks to blow out Western Michigan, as the Broncos are a brutal 6-22-3 ATS as a home underdog, including 0-5 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes, and 0-12-1 ATS vs. foes off wins by 20+ points.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Kansas.  The Jayhawks pulled off an upset last week, at home, vs. Central Florida.  Kansas was a 2-point underdog vs. the Knights, and won, 51-22.  The Jayhawks are favored here, in Stillwater, vs. the 3-2 Cowboys.  And we'll fade Kansas, as it's a wallet-busting 32-65-2 ATS on the road vs. foes that don't have a losing record.  Grab the points with Oklahoma St.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies have, for a long time, under-performed away from College Station.  And especially when matched up against the better teams.  Since 1980, the Aggies are an awful 27-67 ATS away from home in the regular season vs. .636 (or better) foes.  That doesn't bode well for Jimbo Fisher's men.  Nor does the fact that the Volunteers had last week off to rest and prepare for this big SEC game, given that A&M is just 5-20 ATS on the road vs. rested foes, including 0-11 ATS vs. foes off a double-digit win.  Lay the points with Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Under in the Vanderbilt/Georgia game.  The Bulldogs have shut out the Commodores each of the past two seasons.  Not surprisingly, both of those games went Under the total.  And this series has seen 10 of the last 15 meetings go Under.  I expect another low-scoring game on Saturday afternoon, as Georgia is 40-31 Under vs. SEC foes, while the Commodores are 48-30 Under in SEC Conference games (and 18-4 Under their last 22 when getting 20+ points).  Take the Under.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Fresno State.  The Bulldogs had won 14 straight games (dating back to last season) before last week's upset road loss at the hands of the Wyoming Cowboys.  Fresno will try to avoid losing for the 2nd straight week, but I don't think it will succeed.  The Bulldogs' starting QB, Mikey Keene, sustained an injury in last week's game, and will likely give way to backup Logan Fife for this game.  Keene has been brilliant this season, as he's thrown for 1,692 yards and 15 TDs, with just four interceptions.  Fife was 7-for-11 vs. Wyoming, but threw a costly interception late in the game.  And he's had a high turnover rate, as last season, he was 84-for-120 with 2 TDs but 6 Interceptions.  Take Utah State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Tulane.  The Tigers and Green Wave are both 4-1 on the season.  Each won its previous game two weeks ago, as Tulane downed UAB, 35-23, while Memphis bested Boise St., 35-32.  Memphis has been installed as a home underdog, and the Tigers fall into 80-37 and 79-27 ATS systems of mine that play on certain rested teams at home.  Additionally, Tulane has covered just 20% of its conference road games vs. rested foes over the past 44 seasons.  Take Memphis + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Broncos are off to a 1-4 SU/0-4-1 ATS start, after last week's upset loss against the Jets, while KC is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS following a 27-20 victory vs. Minnesota.  We'll grab the points with the Broncos, as AFC West division teams with a losing record, have gone 144-84-7 ATS in division road games if they weren't favored by more than 3 points.  Even better:  Kansas City is 10-20-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite vs. losing teams.  And NFL teams off upset losses have cashed 63.1 percent since 1980 in Thursday games vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over West Virginia.  The Mountaineers pulled off a major upset in their previous game, when they won outright, 24-21, as a 13-point road underdog at TCU.  But off that huge win, we'll fade WVU tonight, as road favorites with a winning record have cashed just 31% over the last 44 seasons following an upset road win as a double-digit dog, if their current opponent was off a straight-up loss.  With Houston in off a 49-28 loss at Texas Tech, we'll grab the points with the Cougars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  In one of the biggest shockers of the MLB post-season, Dodger legend and future Hall-of-Fame pitcher Clayton Kershaw lasted just 1/3 of an inning in Game 1 of this series on Saturday night as the Diamondbacks rolled to an easy 11-2 victory.  If Saturday night was Dodger pitching past and present then tonight will be the future as 24-year-old RH Bobby Miller takes the mound in what is pretty much a must-win situation for the NL West champs.  Miller had a fantastic first season in the Majors, going 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 22 starts covering just over 124 innings.  In two starts this season vs. Arizona covering 12 innings, Miller is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA.  Since the beginning of August, the Dodgers have won eight of Miller's 11 starts, including two victories against this D-Backs team as well as wins against the Braves, Brewers, Mariners, and Giants.  Prior to the loss in Game 1, the Dodgers won five straight vs. Arizona.  Take Los Angeles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies.  Despite having the most potent offense in the National League -- including the best player in OF Ronald Acuna -- the Braves were completely shut down by the Phillies in Atlanta in Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday.  Philadelphia's pitching and defense completely dominated Game 1 despite a solid outing from Braves ace Spencer Strider.  Now the Phils will try to take a 2-0 series lead behind #1 starter Zack Wheeler who was dominant in his Wild Card series start last Tuesday.  But that was against the Marlins and now he'll be going up against a lineup that is an order of magnitude more dangerous in the Braves.  Atlanta will go with LH Max Fried.  Since the 29-year-old southpaw returned from an early season injury he's been one of the best starters in the game.  In nine starts since August 4, Fried went 6-0 with a 2.79 ERA with 55 strikeouts and 12 walks in just under 52 innings and the Braves are 8-1 in those starts and 11-3 in his 14 starts this season.  Take Atlanta.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and New York Jets Under the total.  The Jets have been installed as a small road underdog in this game.  And New York has gone under the total 9 of its last 10 games that have been competitively-priced with point spreads of 4 or less.  Meanwhile, Denver is 42-22-1 Under the total its last 65 as favorites, including 8-1 Under its last 9 when favored at home by 3 or less points.  Take the Under.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Houston.  I played on the Houston Texans each of the last two weeks, and was rewarded with upset wins over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh.  But I can't get behind Houston off those back to back upset wins.  Indeed, since 1980, NFL road underdogs off back to back upset wins have cashed just 37 percent vs. non-division foes off back to back losses.  I'll lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts over Tennessee.  Last week, the Titans upset the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-3, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  But off that big upset win, I'll fade Mike Vrabel's men on the division road, as division road underdogs have covered just 41% since 1980 off a double-digit upset home win, including just 33% vs. foes off a home loss.  And the Colts are, indeed off a home loss.  Even better:  Indy is 53-30 ATS off a straight-up defeat.  Take the Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection in on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens/Steelers rivalry is among the best in the NFL.  And one of the things I love to do in this series is take the underdog if it owns the worse Won/Loss record.  Since 2010, the underdog in this situation has gone 12-0-1 ATS.  That bodes well for Pittsburgh as a home underdog.  As does that the fact that home dogs have cashed 61% off a loss by 15 or more points, if matched up against a division foe off a 15-point (or greater) win.  With the Steelers off a 30-6 blowout loss, and Baltimore off a 28-3 win, we’ll grab the points with Mike Tomlin’s men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the game between Houston and Atlanta.  The Falcons only scored 7 in their game in London, England last Sunday.  I look for a higher-scoring game back in the States, as teams have gone Over the total 60% following an international game.  Additionally, the Falcons have gone 26-6 Over the total after scoring less than 10 points, if the O/U line was between 36.5 and 44.5 points.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints Over the total.  Both the Patriots and Saints come into this game off blowout losses.  New Orleans was upset at home by Tampa Bay, 26-9, while New England was blown out by the Cowboys, 38-3.  With both teams scoring less than 10 points last week, and averaging less than 16 points on the season, the knee jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game here.  But I'll run the other way and take the OVER, as NFL games have gone Over the total 57% of the time if both teams failed to score 10 or more points in their previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Both of these teams come into this game off blowout losses:  New York fell, 24-3, on Monday night, at home, vs. Seattle, while Miami lost, 48-20, at Buffalo.  The difference, of course, is that Miami had covered the point spread in its first three games, while the Giants have yet to cover the spread this season.  The good news for New York is that NFL underdogs on 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have covered 58% of non-division games since 1980.  Additionally, the Dolphins are 9-24 ATS when favored by 9+ points, including 4-18 ATS vs. foes not off an ATS win, while the Giants are 27-14 ATS when getting 9 or more.  We'll grab the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Arizona.  The Wildcats almost pulled off a big upset last week, but they lost by 7 vs. Washington, as a 19-point home underdog.  We'll fade the Wildcats as they're a wallet-breaking 0-17 ATS away from home vs. .500 (or better) foes, if Arizona was not favored by 6 (or more) points, and off an ATS win.  Take USC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders over Baylor.  The Bears pulled off a huge upset last Saturday at Central Florida, when they knocked off the Knights, 36-35, as an 8-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, Baylor is a brutal 0-8 ATS at home off an upset win.  Take the Red Raiders.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs were upset last week, 24-21, at home as a 13-point favorite.  And now, they've been installed as a road favorite vs. the Cyclones.  I don't like backing road favorites (like TCU) off big upset losses and will fade the Frogs tonight, in Ames.  The Cyclones check in off a 30-point loss at Oklahoma, and also play this game with revenge from a 48-point loss at TCU last season.  That was Iowa State's biggest loss in 8 seasons, and Big 12 Conference home underdogs have cashed 69% since 1991, if they were playing with revenge from a 47-point (or worse) defeat.  Grab the points with the Cyclones.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Notre Dame.  This is the 3rd straight week that the Irish will be playing an undefeated team, and they've been installed as a road favorite vs. the 6-0 Cardinals.  Last week, the Irish were exceptionally fortunate to escape with a victory against Duke.  But I don't think they will leave Louisville with a 'W' on Saturday night.  Notre Dame has covered just 36% as a road favorite vs. undefeated teams dating back to 1980.  And the Cardinals are an awesome 9-0 ATS as a regular season underdog vs. .800 (or better) non-conference foes.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels minus the points over Arkansas.  Last year, Ole Miss lost at Arkansas, 42-27.  We'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Rebels, as Arkansas is an awful 0-9 ATS when priced from +10 to +13.5 points vs. a revenge-minded foe.  Take Mississippi.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Kentucky.  The Bulldogs will welcome the 5-0 Wildcats to Athens on Saturday evening.  Georgia's won the last 13 games in this series, and is 12-8-1 ATS at home vs. Kentucky, including 7-1 ATS if the Bulldogs entered the game off a point spread defeat.  Last week, the Bulldogs failed to cover against Auburn.  But I love them to bounce back in a big way here, at home, as Georgia is 28-15-1 ATS at home off an ATS loss when priced from -10 to -28 points.  And undefeated SEC Conference teams have cashed 61% in conference games as a favorite off an ATS defeat.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles minus the points over Old Dominion.  The Golden Eagles lost here, at home, to Texas State, 50-36, last Saturday, and come into this game off 4 straight ATS defeats.  And those point spread failures have kept a lid on this number, to the point that there's value on the Golden Eagles.  Sun Belt Conference teams off 3 ATS losses have gone 34-13 ATS if they were off a double-digit loss.  And the Golden Eagles have covered 67% since 1980 as a home favorite off a SU conference loss at home the previous week.  We'll lay the points with Southern Mississippi.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies.  The Braves come into this game having tied the 2019 Twins' record for 307 home runs in the regular season.  Certainly, the Braves are the favorite to win the World Series, and we'll back them in this Game 1 behind Spencer Strider.  This season, Strider made 12 starts vs. division rivals, and the Braves won all 12.  Meanwhile, the Phillies were 3-6 in Ranger Suarez's nine starts vs. National League East division rivals.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Virginia Tech.  The Hokies snapped their 3-game losing streak with an upset win over Pittsburgh last week.  But off that big win, we'll fade Virginia Tech in Tallahassee on Saturday.  Va Tech is a miserable 1-12 ATS their last 13 off a win, including 0-7 ATS on the road.  Lay the points with Florida State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas A/M Aggies + the points over Alabama.  Last season, the Crimson Tide edged the Aggies, 24-20, as a 24.5-point favorite.  The number is considerably less this year, and we'll take the homestanding Aggies + the points, as they're 20-7 ATS at home when playing with revenge against an opponent off a win, if the Aggies weren't laying 3 or more points.  Meanwhile, Alabama is a soft 6-13 ATS when not laying 7+ points, if the Crimson Tide weren't off a loss, or playing with revenge.  Take Texas A/M + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Akron Zips +the points over Northern Illinois.  The Zips lost starting QB DJ Irons last week, late in the 4th quarter, and went on to lose at Buffalo, in overtime, 13-10.  Sixth-year senior, Jeff Undercuffler, Jr., took over under center for Irons, and he has experience as a starting QB.  Indeed, last year, he started against this Huskies squad, and led the Zips to a 44-12 blowout win.  We'll grab the points with the home underdog, as Northern Illinois is 0-11 ATS when priced from -2.5 to -10 points, and 0-12-1 ATS off a road point spread win, when the line in its current game was 14 points or less.  Take Akron.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus the points over Bowling Green.  The Falcons pulled off a major upset last week when they went into Georgia Tech and stunned the Yellow Jackets, 38-27, as a 21-point underdog.  Unfortunately, conference underdogs off a road win over a non-conference foe, as a 14.5-point (or greater) underdog, have covered just 28% since 1980, including 0-14 ATS their last 14 when priced from +3.5 to +16.  Lay the points with Miami-Ohio.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Washington State.  The Cougars pulled off an upset in their previous game when they toppled Oregon State, 38-35.  Meanwhile, the Bruins come into this game off a 14-7 loss to Utah.  We'll fade Wazzu at UCLA, as the Bruins have cashed 79% since 1980 vs. conference foes that were in off a home upset win over a fellow Pac-12 Conference foe.  Even better:  Pac-12 teams have covered 61.3% since 1980 after failing to score 10+ points in defeat, if they were matched up in their current game against an opponent off a straight-up win.  Take UCLA minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Maryland.  The Buckeyes had a dreadful offensive game vs. the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, as they were held scoreless in the 2nd half until they scored the game-winning touchdown with 1 second left, to prevail, 17-14.  I look for the Buckeyes to erupt on offense on Saturday, as they're 42-14 ATS in Big 10 Conference games after scoring less than 25 points in their previous game.  This will be a roast.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners + the points over Texas.  The Sooners play this game with MAJOR revenge, as the Longhorns blanked them, 49-0, last year.  Needless to say, Oklahoma will be out for blood on Saturday.  And I think it will get its revenge.  The Sooners have cashed 88% away from home in the regular season when playing with revenge against a .571 (or better) foe.  And NCAA teams playing with revenge from a 45-point (or worse) shutout loss have covered 64.8% since 1980 when not getting more than 20 points.  Take the Sooners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the UNDER in the LSU/Missouri game.  Last week, Missouri triumphed at Vanderbilt, 38-21, while LSU was upset at Ole Miss, 55-49.  Missouri has been installed as a home underdog vs. LSU in this early kickoff on Saturday.  I look for a relatively low scoring game, as Missouri has gone Under the total 37-16-1 here, at home, if they weren't getting 14+ points.  Moreover, Mizzou is 15-1 UNDER the total at home after failing to score 40 points while winning its previous game.  And the Under also falls into totals systems of mine with records of 104-59 and 140-86.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Philadelphia Phillies.  Heading into the season, you figured that if the Marlins made it to the playoffs, they would almost certainly lead off with RH Sandy Alcantara.  But the reigning NL Cy Young went on the IL in early September and so the Fish turned to LH Jesus Luzardo last night in Game 1 of the Wild Card series.  After a tough loss, Miami will turn to another southpaw tonight in Braxton Garrett.  Meanwhile, Phils RH Zack Wheeler was dealing for the home team -- not surprising given his career 2.78 ERA in the post-season.  Tonight they will turn to RHP Aaron Nola -- an ace in his own right when he's on.  The problem is that the 30-year-old hasn't been particularly good in October/November as Nola owns a 4.91 ERA in five post-season starts (all in 2022).  Another potential issue tonight is Nola's career numbers vs. the Marlins.  In 23 starts vs. Miami, Nola has an almost incomprehensible 5-10 record despite a decent ERA (3.53).  And this season Nola went 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts vs. the Fish.  Take Miami.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Tampa Bay Rays.  The Rangers took 4 of 6 from the Rays this season, and I like them as an underdog in Game 1 of this season.  Jordan Montgomery has given up 2 earned runs over his last 27 innings (0.66 ERA), and his strikeout to walk ration over this stretch is 22:5.  In contrast, Tyler Glasnow's last four starts have been ugly:  14 runs over 20 1/3 innings, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 28:13.  Over the last three seasons, the Rangers have gone 5-5 here in Tampa, with an average price of +155.  We'll take the underdog Rangers this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the New York Giants over the Seattle Seahawks.  The Seahawks have won back to back games against the Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions.  And they tallied 37 points in each victory.  I’m going to go against them on the road at New York, as teams off back to back 37-point games have covered just 37% over the last 44 seasons when playing on the road vs. a foe off a straight-up loss, including 20% ATS in non-division games.  Lay the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cardinals blew out the previously-undefeated Cowboys, 28-16, as an 11-point home underdog.  But off that win, I will fade Arizona at San Francisco.  Since 1980, road underdogs have cashed just 42% off upset wins as double-digit dogs.  Additionally, the 49ers are 32-20 ATS at home vs. foes that won outright as an underdog the previous week.  And the Niners are also 13-1 ATS their last 14 home games when installed as the favorite.  Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over Cleveland.  The Ravens were upset at home, 22-19, by the Indianapolis Colts last week.  And Baltimore was a 7.5-point favorite in that game.  But off that defeat, we’ll take the Ravens as a division road underdog at Cleveland.  Indeed, division dogs, off an upset loss in which they failed to cover the point spread by more than 10 points, have covered 58% since 1980 vs. opponents that don’t have a better win percentage.  That bodes well for John Harbaugh’s men on Sunday.  As does the fact that the Ravens are 35-20-4 ATS on the road off an upset loss, including 14-3-1 ATS as an underdog vs. .666 (or better) foes.  Take Baltimore.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over Philadelphia.  The Commanders lost for the first time this season when the Bills blew them out, 37-3, in Buffalo.  But off that huge defeat, I’ll take Washington to rebound in this division game at Philly.  Indeed, since 2000, .666 (or better) teams have gone 13-1 ATS as underdogs of +6 (or more) points, if they lost their previous game by more than 15 points.  And the Commanders are also 27-13-2 ATS on the road off a home loss, if their win percentage was greater than .400.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers are 2-1 following an upset win last Sunday night at Las Vegas.  They’re back on the road at Houston this week, and have been installed as a road favorite.  Unfortunately for the Black and Gold, .666 (or better) road favorites have covered just 41% since 1980 off an upset road win, if matched up against an opponent with a losing record.  Pittsburgh’s also a wallet-busting 26-52 as a non-division road favorite of minus 2 (or more) points.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New Orleans/Tampa Bay game.  The New Orleans Saints (along with the New York Jets) have played the lowest-scoring games in the NFL this season, as they’ve averaged just 34.33 ppg.  Not surprisingly, all three have gone Under the total.  But off this string of low-scoring games, I’ll look for a relatively high scoring game on Sunday, as the Over falls into Totals systems of mine that have cashed 66% and 68% since 1980.  The Saints are also 46-27 Over at home off back-to-back Unders (including 17-8 Over off 3+ Unders).  Take Tampa/New Orleans Over the total.