Sports Picks & Predictions

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver Broncos/Chicago Bears game.  Last Sunday, these two teams gave up an ungodly amount of points.  Chicago allowed the Chiefs to score 41, while Denver gave up 70 to Miami.  But off those two ugly defensive performances, I’ll look for a much better defensive effort given by both teams here.  And NFL games with Over/Under lines of 46 or more, have gone Under the total 63% the last 38 years, if both of the teams gave up 35 or more points in their previous game.  Take the Under

At 9:30 am, on Sunday, in a game played in London, England, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over Atlanta.  Last week, I played against the Jaguars, and got the cash with Houston, which blew out Jacksonville, 37-17, as a 7.5-point underdog.  After 2 straight home losses, maybe the Jaguars can find some better fortune across the pond, in England.  I will lay the points with the Jaguars, as NFL teams have covered 69% the last 38 seasons away from home, if they were off a double-digit division loss as a favorite of more than 7 points.  Additionally, the Falcons have only covered 3 of 16 (18.75%) away from home as an underdog of 3 or more points vs. an opponent off an upset loss.  Lay the points with the Jaguars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Arizona/Washington game.  Washington comes into this game off 4 straight offensive performances in which it tallied more than 40 points.  But I expect the sledding to be more difficult for Washington on Saturday night in Tucson, as Arizona's giving up just 16 ppg, and all four of its games have gone Under the total (by an average of 15 ppg).  The Wildcats have also gone Under 11-5 as a Pac-12 home underdog, while Washington's gone Under 12-6 as a Pac-12 road favorite.  This will be a relatively low scoring game.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Notre Dame.  The Dukies are 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS under 2nd year coach, Mike Elko, including 7-0 ATS their last seven.  On Saturday, Elko will match up against the team for which he served as defensive coordinator in 2017.  Duke comes into this game with a 4-0 record, and is outscoring its opposition by 28.5 ppg.  Notre Dame suffered a horrible loss last Saturday night at South Bend, when they gave up a touchdown to Ohio State with 1 second left in the game.  The Irish are a soft 61-81-2 ATS off a loss, and 3-8 ATS as road favorites vs. .857 (or better) foes.  That doesn't bode well for Notre Dame.  Nor does the fact that home dogs of more than 3 points, with scoring margins greater than 28 points, have covered 63 percent of non-conference games over the past 44 seasons.  Take Duke + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles + the points over Texas State.  The Bobcats come into this game off a 35-24 home win vs. Nevada.  Unfortunately, Texas State is a terrible 5-24 SU and 9-19-1 ATS off a win.  Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles suffered an upset loss, 44-37, at Arkansas State.  But they've cashed 73% in Hattiesburg the last 42 years off an upset loss vs. a foe off a win.  Grab the points with Southern Miss.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Georgia Southern.  Coastal Carolina was upset, 30-17, by Georgia State, in Conway, last Saturday.  But off that upset loss, we'll take the home dog, as Sun Belt Conference home favorites have gone 10-27-1 ATS vs. foes off upset losses.  Additionally, Georgia Southern is a poor 1-9 ATS its last 10 vs. foes off upset defeats.  Take Coastal Carolina + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Texas State/Southern Miss game.  Last season, the Golden Eagles defeated the Bobcats, 20-14, and the game sailed under the total.  I expect another relatively low scoring game in Hattiesburg on Saturday afternoon, as Southern Miss will be looking to bounce back off its upset loss last week, where it gave up 44 to Arkansas State.  The Golden Eagles are 11-2 under off an upset loss as a road favorite.  And they're also 12-1-1 under the total after allowing 44+ points, including 8-0 under their last eight.  Take the UNDER.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt/Missouri game UNDER the total.  The Tigers have gone 51-29-1 UNDER in their last 81 conference games, including 8-1-1 UNDER their last 10.  Likewise, Vanderbilt has gone UNDER 48-28 its last 76 conference games.  And eight of the last nine meetings between these rivals has gone UNDER the total.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into totals systems of mine that have records of 103-56, 140-87, and 65-38.  Take the Commodores and Tigers Under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Auburn.  The Bulldogs have been installed as a double-digit road favorite at Auburn, and we'll lay the points with Kirby Smart's men, as it falls into Georgia's best point spread range.  The Bulldogs are an eye-popping 29-1 straight-up, and 24-6 ATS when priced from -7 to -20 points, including 10-0 SU/ATS their last 10.  Additionally, Georgia is 66-39 ATS on the road vs. winning foes, and 11-2 ATS its last 13 vs. Auburn (including 6-0 ATS since Dec 2017).  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts Minutemen over Arkansas State.  UMass opened its 2023 season with an upset win at New Mexico State, but has dropped its last four games to fall to 1-4.  They'll welcome the Red Wolves to Amherst, and we'll take Don Brown's men on Saturday afternoon to snap their losing streak.  Arkansas State upset Southern Miss, 44-37, as a 7-point home dog last week, and it's a dreadful 1-9 SU and 2-7-1 ATS on the road off an upset win as a 4-point (or greater) underdog.  Moreover, that Red Wolves victory has triggered a negative 54-101 ATS system of mine which goes against Arkansas State this week.  Take UMass.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars + the points over James Madison.  The Dukes return home following three straight road wins (including ATS wins in the last two), and have been installed as a favorite vs. the 2-2 Jaguars.  We played against South Alabama last week, and got the $$$ with Central Michigan, which upset the Jags, 34-30, as a 16.5-point favorite.  But off that huge upset loss, we'll take the Jaguars to bounce back in Harrisonburg on Saturday.  Indeed, .500 (or better) underdogs have covered 78% since 1980 vs. conference foes, if our underdog was off an upset non-conference loss as a 16-point (or greater) favorite.  That bodes well for South Alabama.  As does the fact that it has covered 60% off a straight-up loss, if its opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Under in the Colorado/USC game.  After scoring 45, 36 and 43 points to open its 2023 season, Colorado hit a brick wall on offense last week, and scored just 6.  And its touchdown came with just 2:51 left in the game.  The Buffs did give up 35 first-half points, but just 7 in the 2nd half as Oregon relaxed its offense.  I expect more of the same from Colorado in this game vs. USC, as USC should break out to a healthy lead, and then take its foot off the gas in the 2nd half.  Take the UNDER.

At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners over Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs will play their 2nd straight road game after losing (but covering) at Nebraska last weekend, in a 28-14 defeat.  Meanwhile, the Miners come into this game on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak following a 45-28 loss here, at home, to UNLV last Saturday.  We'll take UTEP to bounce back in this game vs. the Bulldogs, as UTEP has cashed 63% over the last 39 years at home as a favorite (or PK) in conference games off a SU loss.  And Louisiana Tech is 0-7-1 ATS on the road vs. conference foes, and 0-8 ATS its last eight off a point spread win.  Take UTEP.  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Braves have captured the top prize in the NL (best record) but they simply can't stop winning despite having nothing else to play for until the NLDS.  They did it again on Thursday, beating the Cubs at home behind -- what else -- great pitching and timely hitting.  Now the Cubs need to win more than ever as the Marlins came back to beat the Mets last night which means Chicago is currently on the outside looking in on the Wild Card race.  They will face another team with nothing to play for in the Brewers tonight in Milwaukee.  There's probably nobody they'd rather have on the mound to start this crucial game than veteran RH Kyle Hendricks.  Despite an overall 6-8 record, the 33-year-old has logged a very solid 3.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 23 starts covering just under 133 innings.  In 33 career regular season starts vs. the Brewers covering 188 innings, Hendricks is 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and he's 3-3 with a 3.03 ERA on the road this season (vs. 3-5 and 4.16 at home).  Take Chicago.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees.  The Blue Jays have been blanked two straight games by the Pinstripes, with Gerrit Cole throwing a complete game, 2-hit shutout last night.  Toronto generally bounces back off poor offensive games, as it's 39-22 (+11.5 net games) after scoring less than 2 runs, and also 42-30 (+9.6 net games) after scoring less than 2 runs in back to back games.  Chris Bassitt will toe the rubber for the Jays tonight, and he shut out the Yankees over 7 innings in his lone 2023 start vs. New York -- a 3-0 Toronto victory.  Luke Weaver will get the start for New York, and he's 1-9 in his last 10 decisions on the road (dating back to 2020).  This season, he's 1-4 with a 6.38 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP away from Yankee Stadium.  Take Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:07 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees.  Despite having everything to play for, the Blue Jays couldn't score a run against the Yankees last night and now the AL Wild Card race is even tighter.  These two will go at it again tonight in Toronto with likely AL Cy Young Gerrit Cole going to the mound for the final time this season.  Toronto's Jose Berrios, on the other hand, isn't in line for a post-season award, but he has a chance to shine tonight, and be a difference-maker.  With the Jays' post-season chances hanging in the balance, I look for the 29-year-old veteran RHP to turn in a quality start in what just might be the biggest game of his career.  Berrios is 11-11 with a 3.58 ERA overall this season but here at Rogers Centre he is 6-5 with a 3.11 ERA in 14 starts (vs. just 5-6 and 3.97 in 17 on the road).  Toronto is 40-20 after scoring less than 2 runs, including 15-6 off a shutout loss.  Take the Jays.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.  

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros.  Houston blew out Seattle, 5-1, last night to move to 1.5 games ahead of the Mariners in the chase for the final playoff spot in the American League.  Seattle will turn to RHP George Kirby tonight, as it looks to close the gap between the teams.  The Mariners have been solid as a favorite of -150 (or less), as they've gone 71-44 (+15.9 net games), including 9-2 at home behind Kirby.  And Kirby has been sensational vs. the powerful Astros lineup, as he has a 1.53 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his three career starts.  He has faced Houston just once here, at home, and it was his best performance, as he scattered six hits over seven scoreless innings.  The Mariners are a super 52-34 (+22.2 net games) after scoring less than 3 runs.  Take Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles come into this Monday Night Football game with a 2-0 record after beating the Patriots and Vikings to start the season.  We'll go against Philly, as undefeated teams have cashed just 39.5% as a road favorite on Monday Night Football since 1980, including 2-11 ATS vs. opponents off a straight-up and against-the-spread win.  With Tampa, indeed, in off a 10-point victory over the Bears, I'll grab the points with the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bears have started the season 0-2 SU/ATS, with an 18-point loss to Green Bay in Week 1, and a 10-point defeat last Sunday at Tampa.  Meanwhile, KC is 1-1 SU/ATS as it lost to the Lions at home, but rebounded to take down the Jaguars in Jacksonville last week.  I like taking underdogs in Week 3 off back to back double-digit losses, as they’ve covered 63% since 1980.  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  The Saints come into this week's game with one of the four best scoring defenses, along with Dallas, Baltimore and San Francisco.  New Orleans has allowed just 16 ppg in its wins over Tennessee and Carolina.  That bodes well for them in Week 3, as NFL teams have cashed 72.3% off a win in Week 2, if their defense was giving up less than 20 points per game, and their opponent was off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  New Orleans is a solid 68-49 ATS as a road underdog off an ATS loss/tie in its previous game.  Take the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Commanders are a surprising 2-0 following wins over the Cardinals and Broncos, and have been installed as a big home underdog vs. Buffalo, which blew out the Raiders by 28 points at home last week.  I'll take the home team, as winning home underdogs have gone 99-60 ATS since 1980 vs. foes off a 15-point (or greater) blowout home win.  Take the Commanders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets. The Patriots come into this divisional match-up off back to back home losses in which they were underdogs, and failed to cover the point spread.  I'll take New England on the road vs. New York as NFL teams that failed to cover their first two games as underdogs have cashed 62% as favorites in Week 3.  Also, the Patriots are 16-0 ATS in the regular season on the road off a straight-up home loss, when not favored by 7+ points.  And the Jets are a miserable 68-120 ATS at home vs. foes that don't own a winning record.  Take New England.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Jacksonville.  I'm not a big fan of laying a lot of points with teams that don't have a winning record.  And especially not against a winless team like Houston.  Consider that .500 or worse teams are 69-109-3 ATS when laying 9 or more points to winless opposition.  I’ll take the double-digits with Houston.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over James Madison.  The Dukes come into this game off an upset win of conference rival, Troy, and are now 3-0 on the season (but 1-2 ATS).  Meanwhile, Utah State is 1-2 SU, but 2-1 ATS.  We played against Utah State last Friday, and easily got the $$$ when Air Force blew out the Aggies, 39-21, as a 9-point favorite.  We'll take Utah State to bounce back on Saturday, as Mountain West conference teams have cashed 59.3% vs. non-conference foes off upset wins.  And James Madison also falls into a negative system of mine, which is 60-104 ATS since 1980, that goes against certain teams off upset conference wins.  Take Utah State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over UAB.  The #1-ranked Bulldogs are 3-0 on the season, but 0-2-1 ATS in Vegas after escaping last week with a too-close-for-comfort, 24-14 win vs. South Carolina.  We'll lay the points with Kirby Smart's men, as defending National Champs have covered 60.2% since 1980 as double-digit home favorites off an ATS loss.  And Georgia is 35-1 SU and 27-9 ATS as a favorite of -3 (or more) points off an ATS loss, while UAB is 0-8 ATS its last eight games away from Birmingham.  Take Georgia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Ohio State.  The Irish have easily won their first three games behind the brilliant play of ex-Wake Forest QB, Sam Hartman.  He's already passed for over 1000 yards, and has 13 TDs and 0 interceptions.  In what will no doubt be a raucous South Bend environment, I would rather have the veteran presence of Hartman than the relative inexperience of Kyle McCord (who will be making just his 5th career start).  The Irish have been installed as a home underdog vs. the Buckeyes, and we'll happily take the points, as Notre Dame is 19-8-1 ATS at home when priced from -2 to +6 points.  Even better:  Notre Dame plays this game with revenge from a 21-10 loss at Columbus last season.  And undefeated, single-digit, revenge-minded home underdogs have cashed 58% of non-conference games since 1980.  Take the Irish.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Buffalo/Louisiana game.  The Rajin' Cajuns have tended to go over the total away from home, but under the total at home.  To wit:  Louisiana is 9-3 OVER their last 12 games away, but it's gone UNDER the total in 15 of 18 home games, including 7-0 UNDER when the O/U line was greater than 57 points.  I look for another low-scoring game here, as the UNDER falls into a 103-55 Totals system of mine.  Take the UNDER.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves are 1-2 on the season, but 0-2 in games vs. FBS foes.  And they've been outscored, 117-34 on the season, for a negative scoring margin of -27.66.  That doesn't bode well here, as Southern Miss is 40-4 SU and 32-10-2 ATS as a favorites of less than 24 points vs. conference foes with a negative scoring margin of -8.5 points (or worse).  Admittedly, Golden Eagles RB Frank Gore, Jr. did get injured in last week's loss to Tulane.  But Southern Miss head coach, Will Hall, gave promising news Monday when he stated that Gore "had a great workout this morning.  He's looking good."  Regardless of whether Gore ultimately suits up on Saturday, we'll lay the points with the road favorite.  Take the Golden Eagles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over Middle Tennessee St.  The Rams suffered a brutal overtime loss to rival Colorado last Saturday.  But they easily covered the 23.5-point spread in defeat.  Today, the Rams will be seeking revenge against an MTSU squad which defeated it last season, 34-19, in Fort Collins.  The Rams are 8-1 ATS with revenge vs. non-conference foes when not getting 7+ points.  And they're 50-24 ATS off a point spread win, when not getting 3+ points in their current game.  Take Colorado State.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over South Alabama.  Last week, the Jaguars pulled off a huge upset win over Oklahoma State when they won, 33-7, as a 7-point road underdog.  Unfortunately for the Jaguars, Sun Belt Conference teams have covered just 35.2% as favorites of more than 8 points following a non-conference upset win.  That doesn't bode well for South Alabama on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that Sun Belt teams have covered just 17 of 48 at home or neutral fields vs. Mid-American Conference foes.  Take Central Michigan + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Iowa State.  Both of these Big 12 teams come into this game off non-conference losses.  The Cowboys were blown out in Stillwater, 33-7, by South Alabama, while Ohio upset the Cyclones, 10-7, in Athens.  We'll grab the points with Mike Gundy's men, as they're 7-0 ATS off a 14-point (or worse) upset defeat.  Take the Cowboys + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Colorado.  Both the Ducks and Buffaloes are 3-0 on the season.  But there's still a wide disparity in talent, which is why Oregon is a sizable home favorite on Saturday afternoon.  We'll lay the points with the Ducks, as they're 30-13-1 ATS at home after covering the spread by 7+ points in winning their previous game.   And they're 8-2 ATS their last 10 games vs. Colorado.  Take the Ducks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Boston College.  We played on the Eagles last week, and got the $$$$ when they easily covered as a 26-point underdog at home vs. Florida State.  But Boston College will be playing its first road game of the season on Saturday, and it's a poor 4-10 ATS its last 14 away from Chestnut Hill.  That doesn't bode well for BC on Saturday afternoon.  Nor does the fact that the Cardinals check in off a point spread defeat.  And Louisville is a sensational 14-3-1 ATS off an ATS loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS as a favorite.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UMass/New Mexico game UNDER the total.  We played on the UNDER in Massachusetts' game vs. Eastern Michigan last Saturday and easily got the $$$ when the two teams only combined for 36 points, and went way under the total of 50.  We'll look for another low-scoring game here, as the Lobos have gone UNDER 11 straight road games following a home game.  And the UNDER also falls into a 140-86 Totals system of mine.  Take the UNDER.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Rutgers.  The Wolves are 3-0 and ranked #2 in the country, and lead the nation in defensive ppg (5.3).  They've been without head coach, Jim Harbaugh, for their first 3 games, as he served a school-imposed suspension.  But Harbaugh will be back on the sidelines this Saturday.  And Michigan has gone 23-1 SU and 17-6-1 ATS in the regular season the past two seasons with Harbaugh, including 7-1-1 ATS when priced from -21 to -49 points.  We'll lay the points with Michigan, as NCAA double-digit favorites off an ATS loss, have gone 12-1 ATS in Game 4, if they owned a defense that gave up less than 8 ppg.  Meanwhile, undefeated, 3-0 teams (like Rutgers) off an ATS win, have cashed just 25% since 1980 when getting 20+ points.  And Rutgers is also a soft 15-36 ATS when priced from +21.5 to +33.5 points.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Rookie southpaw Andrew Abbott will get the start for the Reds, who are looking to bounce back from a collapse Wednesday against Minnesota.  The Reds led 3-2 before the Twins erupted for three runs in the 9th off closer Alexis Diaz.  With that loss, Cincy is a 0.5 game back of the Cubs and Marlins in the chase for the final Wild Card berth.  Tonight, Abbott will be working with extra rest, and the Reds are 5-1 in his starts when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest.  Even better:  in Abbott's lone start vs. the Buccos this season, he struck out 9, against 0 walks, and Cincy cruised to a 9-2 win.  Pittsburgh has yet to name a starter, but Luis Ortiz is the likely candidate.  In his previous start, he was ineffective, and gave up six hits and a season-high six walks in just 4 2/3 innings, and the Bucs lost, 6-3, to the Yankees.  For the season, Ortiz has a 5.16 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP.  The Reds are 4-1 this year vs. NL starters with a WHIP at 1.65 (or worse), and 41-25 (+20.2 net games) vs. losing teams.  Meanwhile, the Pirates are 29-51 (minus 7.5 net games) vs. winning teams (compared to 43-30 (+18.7 net games) vs. non-winning teams).  Take Cincinnati.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the San Francisco 49ers.  The Giants' defense has left a lot to be desired so far, this season.  New York allowed 40 points to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1, and then gave up 28 to the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday.  But off those two awful defensive games, I actually look for a much better effort in Week 3.  Indeed, NFL road teams not favored by 3 or more points, have gone 39-12-3 ATS in Week 3 if they allowed 62 or more points over their first two games, including a perfect 9-0-1 ATS off a straight up win.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus the points over Georgia State.  After blowing out Duquesne, 66-7, the Chanticleers are a perfect 3-0 ATS on the season, and will welcome the Panthers to Conway for this Sun Belt Conference opener.  We'll lay the points with Coastal Carolina, as single-digit home favorites have covered 59.4% of conference games since 1980 after winning a game in which they scored 60+ points.  Take the Chanticleers to blow out Georgia State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over Arizona.  The Giants are now 3 games behind the Cubs for the final Wild Card berth, so the pressure is definitely on in the final 11 games of the season.  Tonight, San Francisco will turn to its ace, Logan Webb, who has a 3.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the season.  Webb has been terrific vs. Arizona in his career, as he has a 2.62 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 9 starts vs. the Diamondbacks.  Merrill Kelly got bombed in his last outing, as he gave up 7 runs in five innings.  And that was the 2nd time in his last four starts that he surrendered 7 runs in 5 innings.  Take San Francisco.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  The Cubbies will look to snap a 4-game losing streak tonight, and avoid a series sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks.  Chicago will hand the ball to rookie LHP Jordan Wicks, who has been brilliant in his four starts this season.  Wicks has allowed just five runs over 22 2/3 innings, for a 1.99 ERA.  And, most importantly, Chicago is a perfect 4-0 in his outings.  Ryne Nelson will oppose Wicks, and he's made 26 starts for the D-Backs this season.  Arizona has won just 11 of those 26 starts, and his ERA is an ugly 5.53.  At home, it balloons to 8.59, while it's 9.00 over his last three starts.  The D-Backs are 3-10 his last 13 home starts, including 0-5 his last five.  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Yesterday, the Mariners and Dodgers were scoreless through 9 innings, and Los Angeles prevailed, 6-2, in extra innings.  The Mariners will look to bounce back off that loss on this Sunday, and will turn to RHP Logan Gilbert.  In interleague games this season, Gilbert is 7-1 in 11 starts, with a 2.79 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.  Even better, when Seattle's lost its two previous games, it's gone 54-40 (+23.40 net games).  And it's a stellar 71-50 (+29.4 net games) after scoring less than three runs.  Take the Mariners on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over Arizona.  The Giants laid a goose egg last Sunday, as they were shut out, 40-0, by Dallas.  Off that embarrassing defeat, we'll step in and lay the points with New York in Week 2.  Indeed, road favorites (or PK) have covered 64% since 1980 off a division shutout loss.  And the Giants are also a solid 42-23-1 ATS off a home point spread defeat.  Take New York minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over San Francisco.  The Rams pulled off a stunning Week 1 upset, when they blew out the Seattle Seahawks, 30-13, on the road.  They will now welcome the 49ers to SoFi Stadium.  We'll take the Rams as a huge underdog, as home dogs of +5 (or more) points have gone 72-53 ATS off a road upset win.  And San Francisco is a wallet-busting 35-58 ATS away from home off a win by 13+ points, including 5-18 ATS when priced from -4 to -10 points.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Kansas City Royals.  The Astros will look to bounce back off 2 losses to start this series, and will send southpaw Framber Valdez to the mound this afternoon.  Valdez is a big favorite vs. Royals' RHP Jordan Lyles, and understandably so.  Lyles carries a 6.33 ERA into this game (and 8.24 in the daytime), and the Royals have won just five of his 28 starts.  Meanwhile, Valdez has a 1.67 daytime ERA and Houston is 11-2 with Valdez as a road favorite priced at -175 (or more) in his career.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Tampa Bay Bucs.  Last week, the Bears were upset, 38-20, by their rival, Green Bay, while Tampa upset Minnesota, 20-17.  If one looks at the yardage stats, however, one will see that Chicago was only outgained by 18 yards (329-311), while Tampa was outgained by 127 (369-242).  The difference in the two games, of course, was turnovers.  Chicago committed 2 turnovers (vs 0 for Green Bay), while Tampa forced 3 turnovers, and didn't commit any, itself.  We'll fade Tampa off its upset win, as home favorites have covered just 31% since 1980 in Week 2 off an upset road victory, if its opponent was off an upset defeat.  Grab the points with Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Detroit.  The Lions upset the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs to kick off their season.  But off that upset victory, we'll fade Detroit on Sunday.  Indeed, over the past 43 years, home favorites have covered just 30.7% off an upset win over the defending Super Bowl champs, if they were matched up against a foe off an upset defeat.  With Seattle in off an upset loss at the hands of the Rams, we'll grab the points with Pete Carroll's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Josh Allen could not have played worse last Monday, as he committed a key fumble, and also threw 3 interceptions.  We didn't mind, as we had a big play on the Jets.  But we'll switch gears, and take Buffalo to bounce back here, at home, in Week 2.  The Bills are a solid 20-6 ATS as a home favorite off a road loss, when playing an opponent off a win.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Green Bay Packers.  The Packers have been installed as a small road favorite following their upset win, 38-20, over division rival, Chicago.  We'll fade Green Bay, as road favorites have covered just 33% since 1980 in Week 2 off upset wins on the road over a division rival to start the season.  I look for Green Bay to have a letdown on Sunday.  Take Atlanta.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii/Oregon game Under the total.  Both of these teams come into this Saturday night game off Unders:  the Ducks outlasted the Texas Tech Red Raiders, 38-30, and the game went under by a half-point, while Hawaii defeated Albany, 31-20, and that game went under by 5.5 points.  The Rainbows have historically been an Over team at home, but have gone Under more often than not on the road.  We'll take the UNDER, as it falls into an 81-29 Totals system of mine

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Bowling Green.  This will be the 3rd (and final) game of Jim Harbaugh's suspension for alleged NCAA violations.  The Wolves have won both games in his absence, but have failed to cover the spread.  I like Michigan to break through today with an ATS win, as it is 12-0 ATS as a home favorite of -14 (or more) points off back to back ATS defeats.  Lay the wood.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Brigham Young Cougars + the points over Arkansas.  These two teams met last season in Provo, and the Razorbacks won, 52-35.  We'll take the revenge-minded Cougars + the points in Fayetteville, as BYU is 22-4 ATS as revenge-minded road underdogs, including 8-0 ATS its last eight in this situation.  Grab the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over Syracuse.  The Orange have been stellar defensively to start the season.  They allowed just 7 points last week in a 48-7 victory over Western Michigan, and shut out Colgate, 65-0, to kick off the season.  They're now favored by a small amount on the road vs. Purdue, which won, 24-17, as a 1-point favorite last week at Virginia Tech.  This is a revenge match for Purdue, which lost, 32-29, at Syracuse last season.  We'll take the home underdog Boilermakers, as home dogs off a SU/ATS win have cashed 66% since 1981 in non-conference games vs. foes that gave up less than 10 points in their two previous games.  Additionally, the Orange are 14-28-1 ATS in their last 43 games vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take the Boilermakers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks + the points over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats pulled off a huge upset of the Pitt Panthers last week, 27-21.  But off that upset win, we'll fade the Bearcats as a big favorite on Saturday.  The RedHawks are playing with revenge from a 38-17 loss last season.  And revenge-minded double digit underdogs have 65.6% since 1980 against non-conference foes off an upset win as a 3.5-point (or greater) underdog.  Take Miami-Ohio.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Western Kentucky.  Ryan Day's Buckeyes have gotten off to a slow start this season -- at least in Las Vegas -- as they're 0-2 ATS (though 2-0 SU).  And they've failed to cover the point spread by double-digits in each win.  Notwithstanding this lack of point spread success, we'll take Ohio State on Saturday, as it's 8-0 ATS its last eight (and 50-38-2 ATS its last 90) off back to back point spread defeats.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Appalachian State.  The Mountaineers have been installed as a favorite of more than a TD vs. East Carolina, and we'll happily take the underdog Pirates, as Appalachian State is a horrid 0-13 ATS its last 13 when priced from +4 to -8.5 points.  Take East Carolina.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Duke.  The Duke Blue Devils are 2-0 and ranked #21 in the country, and own an impressive win over then-No. 9 Clemson. On Saturday, the Blue Devils will host a Northwestern team in transition this season following the firing of longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Wildcats and Blue Devils have met each of the previous two seasons, and six of the last eight. And what’s most unusual is that Duke has won outright as an underdog in each of the last four meetings, including 31-23 as a double-digit road underdog last season. This year, of course, it’s Northwestern catching double-digits, and I’ll take the points with the Wildcats. For technical support, consider that teams playing with revenge that were upset in each of the previous three meetings have covered 58.3% the past 43 years, including 34-18-1 ATS, 65%, on the road. I know that Duke has been an ATM machine under 2nd-year head coach Mike Elko, as it’s gone 10-3 ATS. But it was only favored by more than 10 points one other time, and it failed to cover that game vs. Boston College as an 11.5-point favorite. Here, it’s laying considerably more than that, and my numbers say It’s too many points. Take Northwestern.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts/Eastern Michigan game UNDER the total.  The Minutemen have gone Over the total in three straight games to start the season, as their first three games totaled 71, 73 and 69 points.  Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan has played each of its games Under the total, including a 25-6 loss at Minnesota last week, which went Under by 16.5 points.  I look for UMass to play a relatively low-scoring game vs. the Eagles on Saturday afternoon, as teams off 3+ Overs have gone 561-497 Under the total, including 139-106 UNDER if their opponent was off back to back Unders.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  The Badgers were upset by the Washington State Cougars, 31-22, as a 5.5-point road favorite last Saturday.  And that was the 2nd straight ATS defeat for Luke Fickell's men.  We'll lay the points with Wisky in this game, as favorites of 14+ points have covered 83% since 1980 in Week 3, if they were off an upset loss, and were 0-2 ATS on the season.  Last year, Wisconsin was upset four times, and was a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS off those upset defeats, winning by an average of 28 points (and covering by an average of 14.25).  This will be a rout.  Take the Badgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Kansas State.  The Tigers had a scare last week, as it won, 23-19, as a 21-point home favorite vs. Middle Tennessee.  This Saturday, it will be a home underdog vs. the 15th-ranked Wildcats, who are 2-0 SU/ATS. I love Missouri in this game, as it's covered 75% over the past 43 years as a home dog off an ATS loss vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Meanwhile, K-State is a wallet-crushing 7-19 ATS on the non-conference road when not getting 17+ points, including 3-7 ATS as a road favorite.  Take Missouri.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the OVER in the Ohio/Iowa State game.  These two teams' games have averaged 33.8 ppg this season, and all five of those games went under the total.  That has led to this O/U line being depressed, and my math says the value is clearly on the Over.  MAC Conference home teams have gone OVER the total 58.1% in non-conference games, and we'll look for a relatively high-scoring game on Saturday.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls + the points over Liberty.  The Bulls was shocked last week in an upset home loss to Fordham, 40-37, as a 22.5-point favorite.  The Bulls are now installed as a home underdog vs. the 2-0 SU/ATS Flames, and we'll grab the points, as home dogs have cashed 60% since 1980 off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite if matched up against a non-conference foe off back to back ATS wins.  Buffalo's also cashed 82% the last 22 years as underdogs vs. non-conference foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Bulls.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Florida State.  The Seminoles have sprinted out to a 2-0 SU/ATS start with blowout wins over LSU (45-24) and Southern Miss (66-13).  In contrast, the Eagles are 0-2 ATS after being upset, 27-24, by Northern Illinois in Week 1, and narrowly defeating Holy Cross last week, 31-28, as as 10.5-point favorite.  We'll fade Florida State as a big favorite on Saturday, as ACC Conference favorites of -7 (or more) points have gone 21-49-1 ATS off back to back ATS wins when playing an opponent off back to back ATS losses, including 0-9 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.  Take Boston College.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Justin Steele is a leading contender for the NL Cy Young Award, as he has a 16-3 record, with a 2.49 ERA.  In his last start (last Saturday) vs. this Diamondbacks club, he was once again brilliant, as he gave up just one run over seven innings.  He's now made three career starts vs. Arizona, and has a 1.00 ERA with a 0.77 WHIP.  The Cubs did lose that game, 3-2, which snapped a 9-game win streak by Chicago in Steele's starts.  We'll take Chicago tonight, as Steele has a spectacular 0.43 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over his last three outings, while his mound opponent -- Brandon Pfaadt -- has a 6.92 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in his last three starts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over Virginia.  The Terps will host a former ACC Conference rival, Virginia, on Friday night.  Maryland left the ACC for the Big 10 Conference in 2014, but has gone 4-1 SU/ATS vs. the ACC since then.  And the Terrapins have also been terrific since 1980 as a home favorite of -7 (or more) points vs. ACC schools, as they've covered 63.8%.  Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 1-14 SU and 2-13 ATS as road underdogs vs. foes off back to back ATS losses.  Take Maryland minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Texas San Antonio.  QB Frank Harris suffered a toe injury in last week's win, but managed to play through the pain, and guided the Roadrunners to the win over Texas State.  He's questionable to play tonight.  Regardless, we're going to go against Texas San Antonio, and grab the points with Army.  The Black Knights play this game with revenge from a 41-38 loss at home to UTSA last season, and fall into a 228-145-5 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, the Roadrunners are a dismal 1-15 ATS their last 16 when priced from -6.5 to -10.5 points.  Take Army.  Good luck, a always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers.  With their hopes of winning the AL East all but vanished, the Blue Jays must now focus on nailing down one of the three Wild Card spots.  But with their losses to the Rangers the last two nights, that opportunity could be slipping away as well in the ultra-competitive American League playoff race.  They'll try to turn this series around tonight as the Rangers and Jays each send a lefty to the mound in this third of four games against each other this week.  For Toronto, it will be Japanese veteran Yusei Kikuchi who will get his 29th start of the season.  Kikuchi has been very solid if not spectacular in his second season with the Blue Jays.  In just under 149 innings, the 32-year-old southpaw is 9-5 with a 3.57 ERA and those nine victories represent the most he's had in his five seasons in the Majors.  No doubt he'd love to get to double-digit wins tonight and he has a good chance to do that as in five career games vs. Texas (four starts), Kikuchi is 3-0 with a 3.48 ERA and 0.82 WHIP.  Take Toronto.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Tampa Bay Rays.  Last night, the Twins lost, 7-4, as a home underdog to the Rays and Tyler Glasgow.  Tonight, Minnesota will be favored behind RHP Joe Ryan.  We'll back the home team, as the Twins are a solid 43-22 (+14.6 net games) at home when favored by -150 or less.  Even better:  Ryan has a 2.40 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 outings, and is profitable as a favorite in his career starts (26-16), while unprofitable as an underdog.  Finally, Tampa has burned money this season as a road underdog (8-14, minus 5.2 net games).  Take the Twins to snap their 2-game losing streak.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Jets are looking for big things this season behind newly-acquired QB Aaron Rodgers.  And it all starts tonight, in a Week 1 game against division rival, Buffalo.  We'll grab the points with New York, as Aaron Rodgers has gone 73-43-4 ATS at home in his career starts, including 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog, and 29-13 ATS in division games.  Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are a wallet-busting 9-16-1 ATS as a division road favorite.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  The Chargers are my Futures Pick this season at 25-1 odds to win the Super Bowl.  I expect a major leap forward for Brandon Staley’s men and one of my primary reasons is the hire of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator.  When Moore was with the Cowboys the past 4 seasons, Dallas’s offense ranked among the Top 4 in the league over that 4-year stretch.  The Chargers added rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnson, who was their first round draft pick, and he’ll team up with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to give 4th year QB Justin Herbert a trio of quality receivers to throw downfield.  And, of course, the Chargers have Austin Ekeler in the backfield, so the pieces are there to make a Super Bowl run.  The Chargers are 15-2-1 ATS in season openers when not favored by 4+ points, including a perfect 10-0 ATS in non-division games.  Take Los Angeles to blow out Miami.   Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Philadelphia.  The Patriots have been installed as a home underdog vs. the defending NFC Conference champs, and I’ll grab the points with Bill Belichick's men.  New England is 31-16-1 ATS as a home underdog (or PK), including 23-7 ATS vs. non-division foes, while Philly is a poor 10-22 ATS as a road favorite of -3 (or more) points, including 3-12 ATS in non-division games.  Even worse for the Eagles:  the teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous year have gone 12-32-2 ATS as a non-division road favorite of -4 or less points vs. non-division foes.  Finally, the Underdog is 8-3 ATS in this series.  Take the Patriots + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  The Cubs have lost the first three games of this series, and will try to salvage one game with a victory this afternoon.  Kyle Hendricks will toe the rubber for the home team today, and his teams have gone 55-27 with him on the mound when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, including 27-7 at home.  The Cubs are 7-2 in day games with Hendricks, and 71-41 when priced from -125 to -175, while Arizona is an awful 56-93 (minus 10.1 net games) as an underdog priced from +125 to +175.  Take the Cubbies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Cincinnati Bengals.  Division home dogs in the month of September are 51-29 ATS their last 80. And the underdog
in this Buckeye State rivalry has gone 20-11-1 ATS in the last 32 meetings, and 6-1 ATS in the last seven.  Take the Browns + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Auburn.  We played on the Tigers last week as our NCAA Football Game of the Week, and were rewarded with a 59-14 massacre of UMass.  But off that 45-point triumph, we'll switch gears, and fade the Tigers in Berkeley on Saturday night.  Like Auburn, California's offense was in high gear last weekend, as they annihilated North Texas, 58-21, as a 5-point road favorite.  California piled up 669 yards of offense, and allowed the Mean Green just 225.  Auburn is 0-6 ATS its last six non-conference road games, and has covered just 28% as a non-conference road favorite over the last 40 seasons.  Take California + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the USC/Stanford game.  Caleb Williams & Co. exploded for 66 points in last week's thrashing of Nevada.  And that game went way over the total of 63.5.  Dating back to last season, the Trojans have now gone over the total in 10 straight games, including their previous three which totaled 80, 84 and 91 points.  And the last three meetings between these two Pac-12 rivals have also gone over the total.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here, on Saturday night.  But I'm going to run the other way, and play on the UNDER, as the oddsmakers have set this number too high.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into totals systems of mine with records of 81-29, 44-11 and 55-20.  And, finally, the Trojans are 12-5 UNDER when the O/U line is greater than 67 points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls + the points over Rutgers.  The Scarlet Knights won their season-opener, 24-7, at home vs. Northwestern.  But Rutgers is a poor 3-12 ATS off a point spread win, including 1-8 ATS at home.  Temple also will be looking to avenge a home loss to the Scarlet Knights last season.  And the Owls are a sensational 75-34-5 ATS when playing with revenge, and priced as an underdog of less than 23 points.  Take Temple.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Oakland A's.  This past Tuesday, Nathan Eovaldi made his return from the injured list, and it didn't go well, to say the least. Eovaldi didn't make it out of the 2nd inning, with 4 runs allowed in 1 1/3, and the Rangers went on to lose, 14-1, to rival Houston.  Eovaldi will look to bounce back this evening against the Oakland A's, who took Game 1 of this series on Friday.  That was the floundering Rangers' 4th straight loss, overall, so there's now an air of despration in Arlington.  The good news is that Eovaldi shut out this A's team earlier this year (8 2/3 innings, 0 runs, 3 hits, 1 walk, 12 strikeouts).  His career ERA is 2.97 vs Oakland.  The A's are 0-7 off an upset division win if they were a +130 (or greater) underdog in that victory.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Oregon.  The Ducks put up 81 points last week in an 81-7 pummeling of Portland State.  We'll go against Oregon on the road in Lubbock, as NCAA road teams have covered just 36% in Week 2 since 1990 after scoring more than 65 points in their season opener.  Even better:  Texas Tech is 15-0 ATS as a home underdog priced from +4 to +18 points off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Red Raiders + the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over SMU.  The Mustangs blew out Louisiana Tech, 38-14, last Saturday, in their season opener.  Unfortunately, SMU is a wallet breaking 0-9 ATS its last nine (and 13-25 ATS its last 38) road games off a win by 15+ points, and 6-22 ATS on the road after scoring 38+ points.  Take Oklahoma minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes + the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies walloped New Mexico, 52-10, as a 38-point home favorite last Saturday.  But the Aggies have a massive step-up in class this weekend, as they will have to go into Hard Rock Stadium to take on a Hurricanes squad riding high after its season-opening 38-3 win over Miami-Ohio.  The Hurricanes have cashed 68% since 1980 as home underdogs vs. non-conference foes, while Texas A&M is 0-15 ATS away from home in the regular season vs. .600 (or better) foes, if the Aggies weren't getting more than 14 points.  Take Miami-Fla + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Colorado.  The Buffaloes pulled off a massive upset last week, when they went into Fort Worth, and knocked off the Horned Frogs, 45-42, as a 21-point underdog.  But off that stunning win, I'll look for a letdown on Saturday, as home favorites off an upset win as a double-digit underdog to kick off the season have covered just 35 percent over the last 43 years.  Grab the points with Nebraska.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack + the points over Notre Dame.  NC State kicked off its season with a win at Connecticut, 24-14, last week, and will welcome the 2-0 Fighting Irish into Carter-Finley Stadium for their home opener.  The Irish come into Raleigh off back to back stifling defensive performances.  Notre Dame blew out Navy, 42-3, in Dublin, and then trounced Tennessee State, 56-3, in South Bend.  But off those two games, we'll fade the Irish as a road favorite on Saturday.  Indeed, since 1980, road favorites have covered just 25% vs. winning teams in Game 3, if our road favorite didn't give up more than 7 points combined in their first two games.  NC State has won its last 13 home openers, straight-up, and I look for an upset win in this early game on Saturday.  Grab the points with NC State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Kansas City Royals.  The Blue Jays are barely in the Playoffs, going into Friday's games, as they're a half-game ahead of the Texas Rangers.  So, with just 22 games to go, Toronto knows it can't afford to lose games to division cellar-dwellers like Kansas City.  The Blue Jays are, of course a heavy favorite.  But given that the Royals are 21-67 (minus 25.0 net games) as an underdog priced from +175 to +250, I have no problem laying the big price.  Even better:  Yusei Kikuchi will get the start for the Blue Jays tonight, and he's given up just 5.14 hits and 1.55 walks per start.  For the season, he has a 3.63 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, and the Blue Jays have won 17 of his 27 starts.  Kansas City is a horrible 8-34 on the road vs. starters who give up 5.5 (or less) hits per start, and are also 35-88 (minus 34.6 net games) on the road vs. pitchers who give up less than 1.75 walks per start.  Take Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Atlanta Braves/St Louis Cardinals game.  The Cardinals exploded for 11 runs against Spencer Strider and the Braves last night, and handed Atlanta its second straight blowout loss, as the Cards also won, 10-6, on Tuesday.  Unfortunately for St Louis, it will be facing southpaw Max Fried this evening.  And all Fried has done in his career vs. the Redbirds is go 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, as he's given up just 1 run in 25 2/3 innings.  Adam Wainwright will get the start for St Louis, and has been stellar in his career vs the Braves, with a 3.36 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Admittedly, the 42-year-old hurler is on the decline, but he had the best start of his season in his last outing when he allowed 1 run over 6 innings vs. the Padres.  The Cards are 58-45 UNDER vs. lefties.  And the Braves have gone UNDER 69% after allowing 10 runs in back to back games.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Cincinnati Reds.  The Mariners dropped their 3rd straight game yesterday, as they fell, 7-6, to the Reds.  This evening, they'll turn to Logan Gilbert to stop the slide, and he's in great form.  He has a 1.83 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over his last three outings.  And his strikeout to walk ration was 19:2 in those three games.  Gilbert has won his last seven decisions, and the Mariners are 9-2 in his last 11 starts.  That bodes well for the Mariners.  As does the fact that Gilbert's mound opponent will be rookie RHP Lyon Richardson.  In his debut, on August 6 vs. the Nationals, Richardson did something no other MLB player had done in the last 50 years.  And that was to give up two home runs on his first two career pitches!  Richardson's ERA is 6.75, and his WHIP is 1.75, so I expect Seattle's bats to generate runs today.  The Mariners are 11-2 their last 13 behind Gilbert when they've plated more than 3 runs.  And they're 31-14 on the road (+19.6 net games) with Gilbert on the hill.  Take Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh.  The Buccos came back from a 2-0 deficit to defeat Milwaukee, 4-2, on Monday.  That was the Brewers' 2nd straight loss, and we'll take the Brew Crew to bounce back this evening.  Brandon Woodruff will get the ball for Craig Counsell's men and, dating back to last year, he's 7-1 his last eight decisions (covering 12 starts), and the Brewers are 10-2 in those 12 games.  Milwaukee is 35-25 off a loss, including 8-1 off an upset loss to a division foe.  Take the Brewers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  It may be hard to believe that Corbin Burnes hasn't won a game since July 20.  But that doesn't mean that the 2021 NL Cy Young winner hasn't been effective.  In the month of August, Burnes had a 3.98 ERA and the Brewers won three of his five starts.  He would be the first to admit however that the previous month was much better for him as Burnes went 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA during July.  But regardless of that, Burnes has an excellent chance to get September going with a bang as his first start of the month will be against the 63-74 Pirates.  In 22 regular season games against Pittsburgh (10 starts) covering 75 2/3 innings, Burnes is 7-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.  And those seven wins represent the most that Burnes has had against any team in the Majors.  Perhaps more important is the fact that in 11 career games at PNC Park -- 5 starts -- Burnes is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.  The Brewers are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings with the Pirates going back to last August.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over Minnesota.  Last night, the Twins won in extra innings vs. Texas, and will look to complete a 3-game sweep this afternoon.  Minnesota will send Kenta Maeda to the mound today, and he's not been pitching well, as he has given up 12 earned runs in his last three starts, covering 13 innings (8.31 ERA, 1.69 WHIP).  For the season, Maeda's ERA is a subpar 4.69, while his mound opponent today (Jon Gray) has a 3.60 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.  The Twins are a wallet-busting 29-56 (minus 22.2 net games) as an underdog of +150 (or less), including 21-40 on the road.  And Minny is also 1-8 behind Maeda this season in his daytime starts.  And Maeda's teams are a dreadful 21-32 (minus 23.9 net games) in his career in the afternoon.  Take the Rangers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over the Massachusetts Minutemen.  Last week, we had our College Football Game of the Month on UMass +7 over New Mexico State, and were rewarded with a 41-30 upset win by Don Brown's troops.  UMass has now matched its win total for each of the last three full seasons, as it went 1-11 in each of 2019, 2021 and 2022 (it went 0-4 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season).  But even though victorious, the Minutemen were out-yarded by the Aggies, 458-389.  The difference in the game, of course, was turnovers.  UMass held onto the ball, while New Mexico State coughed it up 3 times.  It would be folly to expect that kind of turnover luck to continue here, at Jordan-Hare Stadium.  Moreover, since 2019, the Minutemen have been miserable against the spread, including 0-15 SU and 3-12 ATS when priced from +23 to +38 points.  Meanwhile, Auburn has gone 26-19 ATS in that point spread range.  Off that big upset win, we'll fade UMass, as it falls into a 'letdown' system of mine which has cashed 69.6% since 1988.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The 2 best teams in baseball will kick off a big 4-game series tonight at Chavez Ravine.  Spencer Strider will get the start for Atlanta while Lance Lynn will make his 6th start for Los Angeles after being acquired last month from the White Sox.  Strider is having a brilliant season for the Braves.  He leads all of MLB with 236 strikeouts, and ranks 3rd among starters in batting average against (.204), and 6th in WHIP (1.06).  Overall, Strider's W/L record is 15-4, and the Braves have won 21 of his 26 starts.  Understandably, Strider's favored on the road tonight.  But it's also the least amount he's been favored by all season.  Strider's in the best form of his career, as he has a 0.43 ERA and 0.61 WHIP over his last three starts.  Atlanta is 168-79 (+34.7 net games) as a favorite, and also 102-51 (+24 net games) their last 153 as a road favorite.  Take the Braves.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.