Sports Picks & Predictions

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders.  If the Lightning didn't realize they were in for a major fight when the Islanders became their opponent for this semi-finals series, they certainly realize it now.  With their win on Saturday, the Isles tied up this series at two games apiece.  However, I expect to see a different Tampa team tonight back at home -- one that plays with the urgency and power that it displayed in the last two games of the series vs. Carolina.  Tampa knows it has the benefit of the best goaltender in the game today and the offense needs to force the play in the Islanders zone without worrying too much about what could happen behind the play.  The Bolts thrive in these revenge situations.  They are 8-1 (+6 games on the moneyline) in their last nine when revenging a one-goal loss to an opponent (and 59-22 off any loss).  They are also 4-0 in their last four when in a situation in which they are tied in a playoff series.  Take the Lightning.  As always good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers 'under' the total.  We played on the 76ers and the 'under' in Game 6, and got the $$$ with each.  For Game 7, we'll come right back with the 'under,' as each of the last three games in this series has been low-scoring.  Game 4 went 'under' by 23.5 points; Game 5 by 9 points; and Game 6 by 20.5 points!  One of the reasons, of course, is that after playing the same team for several games, the defenses understand fully the other team's offensive sets, and don't allow the shooters to get the best looks.  So, it's no surprise that, for example, the 76ers have shot 43.4% over the last three games (compared to 55.2% over the first three games).  Likewise, Atlanta's shooting percentage has dropped from 48.2% to 41.0%.  This season, Philly ranked #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and has also allowed just 108.2 ppg.  For the year, Atlanta's gone 'under' 65.5% of the time vs. the better defensive teams that allow less than 109.3 ppg.  This will be another low-scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Seattle.  The Rays will start southpaw Josh Fleming on Saturday night against RHP Logan Gilbert and the Mariners.  This will be Fleming's sixth start of the season, and he has a nice 2.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 2021.  Tampa has been installed as a road favorite in this game, and the Rays are 17-6 when favored by -150 or less this season.  And they're 65-34 (+26 games on the moneyline) vs. righties, and 37-21 (+11 games on the moneyline) as a road favorite of -150 or less.  Take Tampa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies.  The Rockies will start Austin Gomber tonight, and it will be his 3rd career start vs. Milwaukee.  Unfortunately, his career ERA is 7.04 vs. the Brewers, which doesn't inspire confidence tonight.  Meanwhile, the Brewers will hand the ball to RHP Adrian Houser, who has made one career start vs. Colorado, and he threw four scoreless innings, while striking out five, and allowing just one hit.  Houser's last three starts have all been strong, as he's given up just 3 run over 16 innings (1.69 ERA).  And Milwaukee won each of those games.  Take the Brewers.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets to go 'under' the total.  These two teams met on Thursday night for Game 6 in Milwaukee. Milwaukee was favored by 4.5 points, and the total was 220.  The Brooklyn Nets entered that game with a 3-2 series lead, so it was an elimination game for the Bucks.  But Milwaukee sprinted out to an 18-5 lead in the first quarter, and finished the quarter with a 26-19 lead. Brooklyn could never mount a comeback, and when the final gun sounded, the Bucks earned a 104-89 victory. The Bucks covered the 4.5-point number, and it went under the total by 27 points.  The over/under line for this Game 7 is lower than it was for Game 6, but it's not low enough.  And we'll look for another 'under' tonight.  Indeed, seven of the nine meetings between these clubs have gone 'under' the number this season.  Even better:  Brooklyn has gone 17-7 'under' vs. winning teams, and 12-4 'under' in competitively-priced games with a point spread of 3 or less.  Likewise, Milwaukee has gone 'under' 36-22-1 vs. winning teams, and 27-18 in games priced from +3 to -3.  Take the Bucks and Nets to go 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Houston Astros.  Last night, the White Sox dropped their second straight game (both to Houston), as they lost 2-1 to the Astros.  But Houston started right-handed pitchers in each of Thursday and Friday's games.  And Chicago is a pedestrian 25-23 vs. righties this season.  But not against lefties, as Chicago is 18-4 this season, and was 15-0 last season (33-4 combined).  Tonight, the Astros will hand the ball to southpaw Framber Valdez, who will make his fifth start of the season.  He has a 1.42 ERA, and the Astros are 3-1 in his starts.  But he will face a tough opponent tonight in White Sox righty Lance Lynn.  Lynn has made 12 starts this season, and has a 7-2 record, and a 1.63 ERA.  Take the underdog White Sox.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Oakland A's.  Last night, something had to give, as Oakland brought a six-game win streak into the Bronx, while the Yankees were on a 3-game win streak.  The A's were victorious, 5-3, so New York will look to bounce back on Saturday afternoon.  The Pinstripes will hand the ball to RHP Domingo German, while Oakland will start Chris Bassitt.  New York has been installed as a home favorite, which bodes well as it is 89-45 (+10 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, priced at -110 (or higher).  And New York is 17-6, in German's 23 home starts, including 8-1 in his nine home starts, when priced from -125 to -175.  Take New York on Saturday.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners.  RHP Michael Wacha broke into the Major Leagues with St. Louis at the tender age of 21 back in 2013.  Wacha spent each of the next seven seasons with the Cards before being granted free agency in 2019 and signing with the Mets for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.  He signed with Tampa before this season and Wacha has been able to contribute to the first place Rays' success as both a starter and reliever so far.  He will get his eighth start of the season tonight and it comes in a pitcher-friendly park which should suit Wacha well.  Wacha's teams are 4-0 in his last four starts vs. AL West teams.  Meanwhile, the M's will go with Japanese southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who has had a pretty successful season so far with a 3.67 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts.  But despite solid numbers of late, Seattle is just 8-16 (-10 games on the moneyline) in Kikuchi's last 24 home starts as well as 10-23 (-14 games on the moneyline) in his last 33 night starts.  Take the Rays.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz over the Los Angeles Clippers.  This series is emblematic of the injury woes that have been front-and-center for the NBA this Playoffs season.  Los Angeles will be without Kawhi Leonard for the remainder of this series, while Utah has been playing without Mike Conley, but with a hobbled Donovan Mitchell (both Conley and Mitchell are officially listed as 'questionable' for this game).  We'll take Utah to bounce back off its Game 5 loss, as it is 34-14 ATS when playing with revenge, if it was off a SU/ATS home loss.  And road favorites have cashed 73% off back to back playoff losses since 2004.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Pitching match-ups don't get much more one-sided than this, as Cy Young winner, Trevor Bauer, will face Caleb Smith.  It's true that Bauer had his worst start since September 2019 six days ago when the Rangers crushed the Dodgers, 12-1.  But I fully expect Bauer to bounce back tonight.  He has a perfect 4-0 record, with a 1.99 ERA in division games this season, while Smith has a 5.19 ERA on the season (and a 9.00 ERA in division games).  Throw in the facts that Arizona has dropped 14 straight games, and has also given up 4+ runs in 14 of its last 15 games, and you have all the ammunition to pull the trigger on the Dodgers tonight (given that Bauer's teams have won 10 straight when they've scored 4+ runs with him on the mound).  Take Los Angeles.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies.  The National League Central is probably the most entertaining Division in all of the Major Leagues.  The non-play of the St. Louis Cardinals has opened things up in the Division and right now it looks like any one of four teams can wear the crown come September (all except Pittsburgh, which is already out of it).  Milwaukee's success is due to its "big three" starters of Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Corbin Burnes.  Those three just might be the best 1-2-3 top of the rotation in all of baseball right now (and the three that nobody wants to face in a short playoff series).  It will be RH Burnes tonight in arguably the toughest place for starters in the League.  But if there's anyone who can tame Coors Field, it just might be Burnes, who has a 2.27 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 14.5 strikeout rate in 11 starts covering 63 1/3 innings.  Despite their loss last night, the Brewers are 7-2 in their last nine road games vs. teams with a losing record.  Take Milwaukee.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Montreal Canadiens.  The Canadiens surprised just about everyone by beating the heavily favored Knights on Wednesday in Vegas to even this series at 1-1.  The Habs took a 2-0 lead in the first period of Game 2 and never looked back.  It was not one of Marc-Andre Fleury's best nights as he allowed three goals on 16 shots through the first two periods before settling down finally in the third period. But by then it was too late.  The good news is that the veteran net-minder almost always uses a bad performance like that as motivation for his next one, so look for Fleury to play like his old self tonight at the Bell Centre in Montreal.  And the offense should pick it up tonight as well as the Knights are 9-2 in their last 11 after scoring less than three goals in their previous game.  Finally, the Canadiens are 2-5 in their last seven coming off a one-goal road victory and 10-20 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) if they've won at least four of their previous five games.  Take the Knights.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Atlanta.  Philadelphia has had a great season, as it won 55 regular season games.  But if it doesn't win its next two games, it will be on the golf course next week.  We'll lay the small number on the road tonight, as NBA teams with a win percentage greater than .600, off back to back upset losses, have cashed 64.4% since 1991 when playing away from home, and not laying more than 4 points.  Take Philly.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks to go 'under' the total.  The 76ers now face elimination after back to back upset losses to the Hawks.  But teams tend to go 'under' after back to back upset playoff defeats, as they've gone 'under' in 52 of 82 games.  And the Sixers have gone 'under' in 27 of 41 road games when installed as a favorite.  Take the 'under.'

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Bucks fell apart on Tuesday and blew a 17-point lead to put them in a precarious spot.  Milwaukee must win its next two games, or it will once again be labeled a post-season paper tiger.  One thing Milwaukee can certainly hang its hat on is that it is an awesome 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS at home over the last four post-seasons.  Even better, over the last 31 years, home favorites of more than 4 points, that failed to cover their previous game by 7+ points, have cashed 69% in Playoff elimination games if they trailed in the series by exactly 1 game.  Milwaukee has won all four home games this season vs. Brooklyn (3-1 ATS), and is 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS its last 13 home games in this series.  And it's 21-3 SU and 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points off an upset loss.  Take the Bucks minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Utah's been terrific at home this season, as it's 35-6 SU, and has covered the point spread by an average of 4.07 ppg (compared to a negative mark (-1.10 ppg) on the road).  Meanwhile, the Clippers have also performed better this season at its home at Staples Center than it has done on the road (a .136 differential).  So, it's not exactly a surprise that the Jazz won both home games, while they lost both road games.  The good news for Utah is that it's back home in Salt Lake City tonight.  The Jazz are 59-36-2 ATS as a home favorite in the Playoffs, including 13-7-1 ATS off back to back losses.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are an awful 67-115-4 ATS vs. .589 (or better) revenge-minded opponents, including 6-25-1 ATS if their foe lost the season's two previous meetings!  Finally, when playing at home, and not laying 10+ points, the Jazz are 21-2 SU their last 23, and 20-3 ATS, including 11-0 SU/ATS when favored by less than 7 points.  Take Utah minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds.  Freddy Peralta will get the start for the Brew Crew this afternoon.  And Milwaukee will look to salvage the third game of this 3-game set, as it lost the first two games to the Reds.  But the good news for Milwaukee is that Peralta will be on the mound today.  He has a 6-1 record, with a 2.32 ERA and an 0.83 WHIP.  And opposing batters are hitting just .134 against him over 68 innings!  The Brewers are 9-3 in his 12 starts, including a perfect 5-0 his last five outings.  Even better:  Milwaukee's 21-8 in its last 29 day games, and Peralta's home ERA is 1.45, with a 0.56 WHIP.  Meanwhile, Tyler Mahle has a 5.90 ERA in his six daytime starts, compared to a 1.83 ERA in his seven nighttime contests.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Phillies had their four-game win streak halted yesterday by Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers, but I love Philly as a big underdog tonight.  Julio Urias will take the mound for the World Champs.  But Urias has not been overly effective here, at home, this season, as his ERA is 4.58, with a 1.21 WHIP.  And in his career, the Dodgers are just 6-6 in his 12 home starts (minus 5 games on the moneyline), when priced as a favorite of -150 to -200.  Urias' mound opponent will be RHP Zach Eflin.  And Eflin's teams are 8-8 (but +5 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog, priced from +150 to +200.  Take the Phillies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Colorado.  The Rockies snapped their four-game losing streak yesterday with a one-run win over the Padres.  But I expect Colorado to resume its losing ways tonight, and especially as it will be facing Yu Darvish.  The Japanese righty has a sensational 2.28 ERA and 0.91 WHIP this season, including 11 innings against the Rockies, in which he surrendered 0 earned runs, and struck out 12 Rockies batsmen.  Darvish will be opposed by Colorado's Chi Chi Rodriguez (5.62 ERA, 1.41 WHIP).  Unfortunately, the Rockies have lost six of Rodriguez' eight starts this season.  And his career ERA vs. San Diego is 7.05 in four starts.  Take San Diego.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Milwaukee.  The Bucks leveled this series at 2 games apiece with a 107-96 upset win in Game 4.  Even worse for Brooklyn:  the Nets are down two stars, with G Kyrie Irving and G James Harden sidelined.  But it would be a mistake to think they're devoid of talent -- especially with Kevin Durant on the court.  And with the Nets being installed as a sizable home underdog for this pivotal Game 5, we'll grab the points with the wounded underdog.  Indeed, .600 (or better) NBA underdogs of +2.5 (or more) points have cashed 75% since 1991 in the Playoffs if they were off a double-digit upset loss, and matched up against an opponent with a win percentage less than .700.  Moreover, Milwaukee is a wallet-busting 12-22 ATS off a double-digit home upset win, while Brooklyn is a solid 42-28 ATS when playing with revenge from a road defeat, and 7-3 this season as a home underdog.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds.  With their big win last night over this Brewers club, the Cincinnati Reds are now two games over .500 and only four games out of first place in the NL Central.  So just imagine what their record -- and placing -- would be if they were getting any kind of performance out of their #1 starter RHP Luis Castillo.  For no apparent reason, Castillo has been awful so far.  After winning 19 games with an ERA around 3.4 runs over the past two seasons, Castillo has completely lost it in 2021.  In 13 starts covering 64 innings, Castillo has two wins to go with a league-leading nine losses and an ugly 6.47 ERA.  Since nobody seems to know what's wrong with him, there's little reason to think Castillo can turn things around tonight.  LH Brett Anderson goes in his 11th start for the Crew.  Anderson's season is nothing to crow about (2-4 with a 4.99 ERA) but it's a heck of a lot better than Castillo's.  Despite its loss last night, Milwaukee is 7-1 in its last eight home games.  Take the Brewers.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Los Angeles.  We played on the Clippers in Game 3, and got the $$$$ with an easy 132-106 blowout win.  But off that 26-point loss, we'll take the Jazz to bounce back at Staples Center tonight.  For technical support, consider that .714 (or better) teams have gone 32-10 ATS as underdogs off a loss by more than 21 points!  Even better:  the Clippers are an awful 67-115 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes with a .589 (or better) win percentage, including 11-27 ATS in the playoffs.  Take Utah + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  How does a team score four total runs in a four game series and still manage to come away with a 2-2 split?  That's what the Giants did this weekend in DC against the Nats and it's a testament to their pitching that they were able to accomplish that.  The Giants' 3.19 team ERA is fourth-best in the Majors and it's the main reason they are the biggest surprise in the NL (maybe in all of baseball).  Their offense has been pretty good too, even if it forgot to show up this past weekend.  San Fran's 91 home runs ranks second in the NL to the Atlanta Braves and they could use a couple of those tonight against the worst pitching staff in the League (5.09 team ERA).  LH Alex Wood brings his 5-3 record, 3.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP to the home mound tonight and Wood has been pretty solid here this season (3-2 with a 3.94 ERA in five starts).  Wood has faced the D-Backs 19 times (11 starts) and he is 5-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 73 innings against them.  Take the Giants.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Baltimore Orioles.  When last we saw these two teams play, the O's were putting up the most runs they've scored since 2015.  That 18-5 Sunday afternoon drubbing in Baltimore probably still stings the players on Cleveland's ballclub and you can bet the Tribe is looking forward to getting some revenge in this four-game series at home.  It won't be one of the Indians' aces to start things off tonight but rather 24-year-old rookie RHP Jean Carlos Mejia.  Mejia's MLB career is off to a solid if not spectacular start as he is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in five games -- including two starts.  One of those starts was in that same weekend series in Baltimore, but it wasn't the Sunday game and Mejia actually pitched very well, blanking the O's over three innings while allowing just two hits.  A repeat of that performance coupled with some support from his offense should yield a Cleveland victory tonight.  The O's are 7-15 in the last 22 meetings and 2-8 in the last 10 here in Cleveland.  Take the Tribe.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Philadelphia.  After upsetting the #1-seeded 76ers in Game 1, 128-124, the Hawks suffered back-to-back blowout losses (118-102, 127-111).  But off those two 16-point defeats, we'll grab the points with Atlanta in this critical Game 4.  Indeed, NBA teams have cashed 62% at home in the Playoffs after back to back losses by more than 15 points.  Moreover, Philadelphia is an awful 6-23-1 ATS on the road, when favored by 10 points or less, if the 76ers were off back to back wins, and owned a win percentage of .625 (or better).  And Atlanta is 11-1 ATS as a home dog of +3 (or more) points off back to back losses by more than 15 points.  Take the Hawks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays.  After they dropped 18 runs on Boston on Sunday, the Sox were hoping that the Blue Jays would just go away.  But unfortunately for the Sox, this series still has one more game to be played tonight.  RHP Nathan Eovaldi will take his 7-3 record and 4.11 ERA to the mound tonight for Boston.  Going to the hill for the Blue Jays will be rookie RHP Alek Manoah.  Manoah was Toronto's first round pick in 2019 and despite his fast rise to the Majors and young age (23), Manoah has not disappointed so far with a 1-0 record, 3.14 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP over his first three MLB starts covering 14 1/3 innings.  This will be Manoah's first-ever start against the Red Sox, but on the other side Eovaldi has faced the Jays seven times including six starts with fairly mixed results.  But one thing he does do pretty consistently is win games at Fenway Park.  In 34 games (26 starts) here, Eovaldi has a record of 10-5.  Also, Eovaldi's 0.4 HR rate this season is the best in baseball, which should serve him well against the homer-happy Blue Jays, who rank #1 this season in home runs (with 99).  Take Boston.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Phoenix.  The Nuggets are down 3-games-to-none, but I wouldn't count them out of Game 4 -- especially because they're playing at home, and have been installed as an underdog.  Indeed, home underdogs of less than 8 points, that trail in a 7-game series, three-games-to-none, have actually done quite well against the spread, with a 28-20-3 ATS record since 1991, including 8-1-1 ATS if our home underdog's win percentage was .625 (or better).  Moreover, Denver has been terrific at home off a straight-up home loss, when it's owned a winning record, as it's 6-0-1 ATS its last seven (and 23-12-2 ATS its last 37).  Meanwhile, Phoenix has covered just one of its last seven as road favorites vs. winning teams.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets 'under' the total.  All three games of this series have sailed UNDER the total, including Game 3, which generated just 169 points (against an over/under line of 235).  And that game went 'under' by a whopping 66 points.  So, the oddsmakers have adjusted this Game 4 line but, by my math, it's not been adjusted enough.  We'll take the 'under' this afternoon and note, for technical support, that NBA playoff games with O/U lines of 200 (or more) have gone 'under' the total 71% over the last 31 years if the previous game totaled 172 (or less) points.  Even better:  in competitively-priced games with point spreads of less than 4, Milwaukee has gone 'under' in 7 straight (and 42 of 72), while Brooklyn has also gone 'under' seven straight, and in 78 of 127.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Utah Jazz.  After dropping the first two games of this series, the Clippers cannot afford to go down three-games-to-none.  Los Angeles was in a similar spot in its last series -- vs. Dallas -- and rebounded from a 2-0 deficit to win that series in seven games.  While Utah is no doubt a much more difficult foe than the Mavericks, the Clippers will be able to draw inspiration from that Mavericks series, and I believe that will serve them well in this Game 3.  One fact stands out about the Jazz:  they are dominating at home this season, as they're 35-6 SU, 27-14 ATS, and covering the point spread by an average of 4.07 ppg.  But they're actually failing to cover the spread by 0.35 ppg on the road!  That doesn't bode well for Utah tonight.  Nor does the fact that .610 (or better) NBA favorites of -3+ points, down 2-games-to-none in a playoff series, have covered 60% over the past 31 seasons.  Finally, since Kawhi Leonard joined the Clippers, they're a solid 31-18 ATS as a favorite off a SU/ATS loss, including 7-1 ATS vs. .625 (or better) opponents.  Take Los Angeles to blow out Utah tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Chicago Cubs.  How does a starting pitcher lead the league in walks with 37 in 54 2/3 innings -- an absurd walk rate of 6.1 -- and still log a winning record with a very nice 2.63 ERA in his 11 starts.  The Cardinals likely don't know how RHP John Gant is doing it anymore than we do and they likely don't care too much as long as he can continue to be successful.  Gant's somewhat mysterious season continues tonight as he gets his 12th start and it will come against his team's dvision rival, Chicago, at Wrigley Field.  Here is the other strange thing about Gant.  As solid as his overall ERA has been this year, it's completely off the charts when he pitches on the road.  In six starts away from St. Louis, Gant is 2-1 with a sparkling 0.90 ERA in 30 innings.  Moreover, in 13 previous games vs. the Cubs -- three starts -- Gant is 2-2 with a 2.28 ERA in just under 24 innings.  Finally, despite their loss on Friday, the Cards are still 8-3 in the last 11 games here on the North Side.  Take St. Louis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets.  It's hard to believe that a pitcher with a 2.33 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 6.85 K:BB ratio and no-hitter to his credit could be considered as having a hard-luck season.  But that's pretty much how you would have to classify the Padres' Joe Musgrove.  The reason for the hard-luck label is the 28-year-old's 4-5 record in 12 games (11 starts).  Obviously, with the kind of numbers he has and the kind of team he has around him, Musgrove should have a much better record than the one he's currently sporting.  He has revenge on his mind today, as in his last start, Musgrove and the Padres were shut out by the Mets, 4-0, on June 5 in his home ballpark.  Musgrove hopes to do better in his first career start at pitcher-friendly Citi Field.  Musgrove has actually been much more effective on the road this season.  In six games (five starts) away from San Diego, Musgrove has logged a 1.76 ERA and 0.69 WHIP (compared to a 2.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in six starts at Petco Park).  Take the Padres.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox.  Two starters who used to face off over in the National League East Division will do so again this afternoon -- but as members of AL East teams.  Boston's Nick Pivetta and Toronto's Steven Matz came over from the Phillies and Mets, respectively, and they will go to the mound for their new teams in this critical game.  You could certainly argue that Pivetta and his 6-1 record and 3.78 ERA has had the better season so far, and few would disagree with you.  But despite his higher ERA (4.50), Matz has managed a winning record and has had to pitch his home games in what are basically minor league parks (Buffalo, Dunedin).  And Toronto's two home ballparks this season rank (along with Coors Field) among the three highest in terms of projected runs scored.  This is reflected in the veteran southpaw's poor home numbers (1-2 with a 5.76 ER and 1.92 WHIP in five starts) vs. his superior ones on the road (5-1 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.03 WHIP).  Toronto is also 13-8 (+5 games on the moneyline) in its last 21 daytime games.  Take the Blue Jays.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Phoenix Suns.  The Suns swept the first two games of this series to take a 2-0 lead.  But those two games were in Phoenix, where the Suns have gone 31-10 SU, 27-14 ATS, and have covered the spread by an average of 4.02 ppg.  On the road, Phoenix has been less successful, as it's failed to cover the spread by an average of 0.5 ppg.  Denver, meanwhile, covers the spread at home by an average of 1.34 ppg.  We'll take the Nuggets in this Game 3, as they've been terrific at home off back to back losses by more than 10 points, and especially when priced from +1.5 to -4.5 points, as they're 19-3 ATS their last 22.  Even better:  Denver lost the first two games 122-105 and 123-98.  But NBA teams off back to back Playoff losses that gave up more than 120 points in each game, have cashed 64% since 1990.  This is a virtual 'must-win' game for Mike Malone's men.  Lay the small number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins. Bailey Ober will now get the start for Minnesota, and Ober has not impressed in his young career, thus far. He's made two starts this season, and has given up 5 runs in 8 innings (5.62 ERA), with a 1.37 WHIP. Ober will face the Astros, who upset the Twins in last year's playoffs. Houston will hand the ball to RHP Jose Urquidy, who also stumbled in his last start (six runs in 4 1/3 innings at Toronto). But Houston won each of Urquidy's five starts prior to that outing. And Urquidy's career ERA vs. Minnesota is 2.08, with a WHIP of 0.92. Even better: the Astros have scored 7, 8, and 8 runs in each of their last three games. And they're 32-8 on the road after scoring 7+ runs in each of their three previous games. Take the Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Utah.  The Jazz drew first blood in this series with a three-point win in Game 1.  But off that loss, we'll step in and take the points with the underdog Clippers.  It's true that the Jazz rolled to the best record in the league this year, and are 34-6 at home.  But consider that #1 seeds are a poor 58-91 ATS as a favorite in the Playoffs when they lead in a series against a .600 (or better) opponent.  Even better:  the Clippers are 23-10 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, including 11-1 ATS if the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 4 points or less.  And Los Angeles is an awesome 39-14 ATS off exactly one loss.  Take L.A. + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Bucks were embarrassed in Game 2, as they were blown out, 125-86, by Brooklyn.  But that 39-point defeat sets up our play tonight, as .250 (or better) teams have gone 35-5 SU and 28-11-1 ATS at home off a blowout loss by 39+ points, if they were favored by more than 2 points in their current game (and a perfect 6-0 ATS if their win percentage was greater than .600).  Moreover, Milwaukee is 44-17-1 ATS at home off back-to-back losses.  Take Milwaukee minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Nuggets dropped Game 1, 122-105, as a 6-point underdog.  But Mike Malone's men have been exceptional in the Playoffs, when trailing in a series, as they're 10-5 SU and 12-2-1 ATS their last 15, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they failed to cover the spread in their previous game.  That bodes well for Denver tonight.  As does the fact that .700 (or better) teams are a poor 35% ATS at home in the Playoffs since 1991 when not favored by 8+ points, if they won their previous game in the series by more than 11 points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Cleveland Indians.  After an 18-5 drubbing at the hands of the Orioles of all teams on Sunday, Cleveland had a day off and then took out its frustration in St. Louis on the Cardinals last night.  But that was a pitching mis-match with Shane Bieber going up against Carlos Martinez who might not be long for the rotation if he can't turn things around soon.  Tonight it will be the ageless wonder -- RHP Adam Wainwright -- going for the Cards.  Just shy of his 40th birthday, Wainwright can still go out and give his team six-plus quality innings and he certainly doesn't mind the occasional inter-league match-up.  In 42 games vs. the AL (36 starts), Wainwright is 16-12 with a 3.73 ERA in 242 innings.  In two previous games vs. the Tribe (one start), Wainwright is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA with 12 Ks and three walks in 11 innings.  Despite their win on Tuesday, the Indians are still 2-5 in their last seven inter-league road games.  The Cards are 15-5 in their last 20 games as a favorite.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Kawhi Leonard & Co. were extended to seven games by the Dallas Mavericks, while Utah had a much easier time of it vs. the Memphis Grizzlies.  Unfortunately for the Clippers, teams off home SU/ATS wins in a Game 7 have covered just 35% since 1991 when they've played on the road in Game 1 of the following series, provided their opponent won its previous series in less than 7 games.  That doesn't bode well for Los Angeles tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Jazz have won the last five meetings here in Salt Lake City (4-1 ATS), and are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings, overall.  The Jazz were the #1 home point spread team in the league this season, as they covered the spread at home by 4.56 ppg.  The Clippers, meanwhile, had a road point spread differential of just 0.11 this season.  Utah's an awesome 33-4 SU and 25-12 ATS at home its last 37, while the Clippers are 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS on the road in the playoffs after winning their two previous games.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Atlanta.  The Hawks drew first blood on Sunday, with a 128-124 upset win over the Sixers.  But off that defeat, we'll play on the 76ers in Game 2 tonight.  Indeed, that 128 points was the most points the Sixers have given up in a loss, with Joel Embiid in the lineup, this season.  The good news, however, is that NBA teams that give up 125+ points in an upset playoff defeat are a perfect 8-0 ATS the last four playoff seasons, and 67% ATS the past 31 years.  Take Philadelphia to bounce back strong on Tuesday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox.  Garrett Richards will toe the rubber for Boston this evening, and he's had ZERO success in his career vs. New York.  In six starts vs. the Pinstripes, Richards is 0-5 (his teams are 0-6), with an ERA of 8.76, and a WHIP of 1.78.  It doesn't get much uglier than that!  In contrast, Domingo German has made five starts vs. Boston, and his teams are 4-1.  Even better:  at home, in his career, German's teams are 17-5, including a perfect 8-0 when priced from -125 to -175.  And his teams have won 17 of his last 21 nighttime starts.  Meanwhile, Richards teams are 3-17 on the road in his starts, when priced from +125 to +175.  Take the Yankees to blow out Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets.  Chris Paddack will get the start for the homestanding Padres this afternoon.  At home, Paddack has a 2.37 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season, and the Padres are 6-1 at home when favored by 150 or less with him on the mound.  That bodes well for San Diego today.  As does the fact that the Mets are a horrible 19-37 (minus 15 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog, priced at +150 or less, while Marcus Stroman's teams are 12-26 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) in his career, when priced as the underdog.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Clippers/Dallas Mavericks game.  The last three games in this series have gone 'under' the total, and have done so by wide margins (32.5, 12.5 and 16 points).  We played on the 'under' in Game 6, and that's the way we will look again in this Game 7.  Indeed, eight of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER.  And the Mavericks are now 23-6 UNDER their last 29 games when they've been installed as the underdog.  Finally, NBA games have gone UNDER 72.5% if the season's previous three meetings went under, in the aggregate, by 59+ points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over Cincinnati.  The Cards have dropped four straight games heading into this contest.  They'll hand the ball to RHP John Gant, who comes into this game off back to back scoreless outings -- against two of baseball's best clubs.  On June 1, Gant held the mighty Dodgers to 0 runs over six innings, in a 3-2 win.  And back on May 26, he threw five scoreless innings at the White Sox, in a 4-0 victory.  Gant and the Cardinals are back home for this one, and Cincy is a poor 26-49 (minus 23 games on the moneyline) on the road, when priced from +125 to -125.  And the Reds are also 40-63 (minus 29 games on the moneyline) in daytime affairs.  Take St. Louis.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over Detroit.  Nobody is going to pick the Tigers to win the World Series -- or even a Division Title -- anytime soon, but this club has played surprisingly well lately.  With series against the Yankees, Brewers, and White Sox, Detroit has gone 5-3.  Unfortunately, the Tigers face a very talented young starter in RH Dylan Cease this afternoon.  Admittedly, Cease still walks too many batters -- although he's done slightly better in that category in 2021 -- but when he's on, he can be very good.  The 25-year-old also has one of the strongest home/road biases in baseball this season.  In six starts here at Guaranteed Rate Field, Cease is 2-0 with an amazing 1.99 ERA in just under 32 innings.  But in five road starts, he is 1-2 with 6.26 ERA in 23 innings.  He also had his best start this season against the Tigers.  On April 29 in the second game of a double-header, Cease pitched a seven inning complete game shutout right here at home.  Detroit is 7-24 in the last 31 meetings and 5-17 in the last 22 meetings here.  Take the White Sox.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Our preseason pick to win this year's NBA championship was Milwaukee (at 13-2 odds), but it will be an uphill climb for the Bucks to do it, as they're seeded #3 in the Eastern conference.  Tonight, Milwaukee will have to go into Brooklyn to face a very tough Nets team which boasts three offensive superstars in Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and James Harden.  It's true that Milwaukee was impressive in its 4-game sweep over the Miami Heat.  But NBA teams off 4-0 Sweeps have covered just 36% over the last 31 years in Game 1 of their next series if they weren't laying 7+ points, and their opponent was NOT off a series sweep.  Even worse for Milwaukee:  Brooklyn is playing tonight's game with revenge from back-to-back losses to the Bucks last month.  And revenge-minded teams have gone 23-8 ATS (in the quarterfinal round, forward) at home in Game 1 of a series.  Finally, Milwaukee's been horrific away from home off 4+ wins, when facing a revenge-minded, rested opponent, as it's covered just 25.8% ATS since 1990, including 0-9 ATS since March 31, 2019.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Colorado Avalanche.  Our preseason pick to win this year's Stanley Cup was Colorado (at 7-1 odds), and the Avalanche have done nothing yet to dispel our belief that they will eventually be crowned the champs.  They've won their last 11 games, and also earned the Presidents' Trophy for garnering the most points in the regular season.  But Vegas tied Colorado for points in the regular season (it lost on the tie-breaker), and actually outplayed the Avs in Game 2, though it lost in overtime, 3-2, on a power play goal by Mikko Rantenen.  Indeed, the Golden Knights struck the goal post five times on shots that got by Philipp Grubauer (and outshot the Avs, 41-25), so they were enormously unlucky on Wednesday night.  The good news for Vegas is that it will be back home at T-Mobile Arena on Friday, where it went 21-5-2 this season.  Even better:  Vegas is 48-26 (+19.4 games on the moneyline) off a road loss, and 63-40 when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Golden Knights.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the under in the Dallas/Los Angeles game.  The Clippers were upset by the Mavericks, 105-100, as a 7.5-point home favorite on Wednesday, which sets up this 'do-or-die' game for Tyronn Lue's men tonight.  Los Angeles has now gone 'under' in 10 of its last 13 games off a straight-up loss, while Dallas is 17-11 'under' vs. opponents off a loss.  Even better:  these two teams come into tonight's game off two very low-scoring contests (105-100, 106-81) that went under the total by 32.5 and 12.5 points, respectively.  And that sets up tonight's play, as competitively-priced playoff games, with point spreads of 3 (or less) points, have gone 'under' 60.9% since 1991, if the two teams also went under in their two previous games.  We'll look for another low-scoring game tonight in Game 6.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox.  We're two months into the baseball season, but the Yankees and Red Sox have yet to play a game against each other.  All that changes tonight when Boston travels to the Bronx to face their rival.  And the Red Sox have had little success vs. the Yankees of late, as they've lost their last 11 games here, at Yankee Stadium.  We'll take New York tonight to extend that streak to 12 games, as they'll hand the ball to RHP Michael King.  King has made two appearances in his career vs. the BoSox, and he's 1-0 with a 4.05 ERA.  Even better:  the Yankees are a dominant 58-22 (+21 games on the moneyline) at home if they lost their previous game.  And they're 41-18 at home when priced as a favorite of -150 (or less).  Take the Yankees.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Phoenix/Los Angeles game.  These two teams have played four of their five games in this 1st round series UNDER the total.  And the last three have gone 'under' by wide margins (9.5, 17.5 and 7.0 points).  That bodes well for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' 67% since 1991 after the three previous games went 'under' by at least 5.0 ppg.  Take Game 6 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the NY Mets.  Yu Darvish will toe the rubber for San Diego tonight, and the Padres have won 10 of his 11 starts in 2021, including the last seven in a row.  I look for this streak to remain intact tonight, as the Mets are a dreadful 8-25 as road underdogs, priced from +125 to +175.  Even better:  Darvish's teams are 16-1 at home vs. opponents with below average power that average 0.9 (or less) home runs per game (the Mets have hit just 43 HRs in 48 games).  And his ERA in his seven nighttime starts this season is a microscopic 1.37.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Chicago Cubs.  At first blush, the Giants' Anthony DeSclafani's 4-2 record and 3.56 ERA in 11 starts are very solid.  But the former Cincinnati Reds RHP's numbers are even more impressive when you consider that DeSclafani allowed 10 runs in 2 2/3 innings two starts ago to the Dodgers.  In fact, the 31-year-old's last two starts have come against Los Angeles leading into this match-up with the Cubs.  DeSclafani has faced the Cubs on 12 previous occasions from his time in the NL Central and he has a winning record (4-3) against them with a 3.91 ERA in 69 innings.  DeSclafani now pitches for the Giants and has the benefit of a very pitcher-friendly home venue in Oracle Park.  At 32-23, the Cubs have had a very successful campaign so far in 2021 but they are 2-6 in the last eight meetings here in San Francisco.  The Giants are a reliable 14-5 (+12 games on the moneyline) in their last 19 games immediately following a loss.  Take San Francisco.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Blazers lost Game 5 at Denver, in double-overtime, to fall behind in this series, three-games-to-two.  But we'll look for the Blazers to level this series at three games apiece tonight, as teams favored by more than 4 points, and facing elimination in a first round series, have cashed 68% since 2001, including 88% vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .620.  Additionally, Denver is 39-68 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS win.  Take Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Heading into the 2019 season, expectations for LHP Brett Anderson were not very high to say the least.  The then-30-year-old had only managed two seasons -- out of 10 up to that point -- in which he made it through uninjured and the last one was 2015.  But 2019 seemed to do the trick as Anderson started 31 games for the A's, winning 13 times with a nice 3.89 ERA.  Ironically, he was cut loose at the end of that season and the Brewers picked him up.  And so far, so good, as Anderson has only made two short trips to the IL but otherwise has not missed a beat in 2020 or so far this season.  In eight starts in 2021, Anderson is 2-3 with a 4.18 ERA -- not spectacular numbers, but Milwaukee is being very cautious with him for good reason.  Here at Miller Park, Anderson has made eight career starts with a 3-2 record and 3.83 ERA in 40 innings.  The D-Backs are also 2-9 in the last 11 meetings with the Crew and 1-7 in the last eight in Milwaukee.  Take the Brewers.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  The road team has gone 4-0 SU/ATS in this playoff series (and is 8-1 the last nine meetings), and we'll back the road team, Dallas, tonight.  The Mavericks are a solid 118-74 off a loss vs. an opponent off a win.  And underdogs have cashed 67.6% since 1991 off a 22-point (or worse) playoff defeat, if they don't trail in the series.  Take Dallas.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz/Memphis Grizzlies game to go under the total.  The Grizzlies have lost their last three games to face elimination tonight.  We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game, as 1st Round elimination games have gone 'under' the total 57% since 1991 if the team facing elimination was not getting more than 10 points.  And Utah has gone 'under' 62-44 at home in the playoffs.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over St. Louis.  One of my favorite pitchers, Walker Buehler, will take the mound for Los Angeles tonight.  We played against Buehler in his last start, and got the $$$ with the San Francisco Giants as a +171 underdog.  But we'll reverse course, and take Buehler tonight, as he's dominated the Cards in his career, with a 2.37 ERA and a stellar 0.84 WHIP.  Moreover, the Dodgers are an awesome 58-13  (+23.4 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, priced at -200 (or more), including 16-3 (+8 games on the moneyline) with Buehler on the hill.  That bodes well for the Dodgers in this game. As does the fact that St. Louis' Carlos Martinez has an awful ERA of 5.29 over his last three starts, while Buehler's ERA over his last three games is 0.90.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the Montreal Canadiens.  Montreal surprised heavily favored Toronto, coming back from a 3-1 games deficit to advance to the second round.  Now the Habs will try to do the same to the upstart Jets, who also pulled off an upset of their own (over the Oilers) in their first round series.  But this may be more difficult than beating Toronto, whose offense went to sleep in the seven-game series.  For one thing, the Jets have had the Habs number lately, taking seven of the last 10 meetings.  Second, Winnipeg has had 10 days to rest, recover and prepare for this game while the Habs played two days ago and are still licking their wounds from that tough series.  Including their first round four-game sweep of Edmonton, the Jets have now won six straight coming in so you could say they are peaking at just the right time. Montreal has won three straight but it is just 1-13 (-17 games on the moneyline) in its last 14 following a three-game win streak.  And it's also a poor 24-37 (minus 19.9 games on the moneyline) off a win by 2+ goals.  Take Winnipeg.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  The Knicks swept the Hawks, 3-games-to-none, in the regular season, but have dropped the last two games (by 11 and 17 points) to fall behind in this series, 3-games-to-1.  So, if the Knicks can't win tonight, they'll be ousted from the playoffs.  We'll lay the points, as favorites off back to back double-digit losses, have gone 63% ATS at home in the playoffs since 1991.  Take New York.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Tampa Bay Lightning.  This series has the makings of a great one, as both clubs rightfully have championship hopes.  The Lightning drew first blood with a Game 1 victory, 2-1, behind 37 saves from Andrei Vasilevskiy.  We'll take the homestanding Hurricanes to bounce back in Game 2, as they are 23-9 here, in Raleigh, this season, including 6-2 if they lost their previous home game.  And the Hurricanes are also 16-8 when playing with revenge.  The Lightning, meanwhile, are an unprofitable 17-14 (minus 6.8 games on the moneyline) on the road this season, and are 8-8 (minus 6.7 games on the moneyline) off a road win.  The revenge-minded team has won each of the last four meetings in this series, and we look for Carolina to extend that streak to five games.  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Memphis/Utah game.  The Grizzlies find themselves in a virtual 'must-win' situation tonight, as they're down 2-games-to-1 after dropping Games 2 + 3 by scores of 141-129 and 121-111.  Clearly, the Grizzlies will need to shore up things on the defensive end if they hope to get back into this series with an upset win tonight.  I look for a much better defensive effort by the home team, and a lower-scoring game tonight, on Monday.  Indeed, NBA playoff games have gone under the total 71% of the time since 1990 if a team was off back to back losses, in which it gave up more than 120 points.  And the Grizzlies have also gone 'under' 33-13-1 their last 47 after giving up 120+ points in their previous game.  Take the 'under' tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Vegas Golden Knights.  Here is the match-up that almost everyone predicted and many want to see.  The Avs and Knights finished the regular season with identical point totals (82) but it was Colorado's final win over Vegas on May 10 which gave it a chance to lock up the division title and Presidents Trophy provided it won its final two regular season games vs. the Kings (which the Avs did, easily).  And just to show that their blowout wins at the end of the regular season (6-0 and 5-1) were not a fluke, the Avs then proceeded to dismantle a pretty good Blues team in the first round.  In its four game sweep of St. Louis, Colorado out-scored the Blues by an embarrassing 20-7.  No such easy time for the Knights, however, as they had to go to seven games to put away a very good Minnesota Wild club.  So, Colorado is fresh and Vegas is anything but, after its grueling series which ended less than 48 hours ago with a 6-2 win in Game 7.  The Avs are 11-0 at home in their last 11 after two straight wins by two or more goals, while the Knights are a poor 11-15 off a win by more than three goals.  I predicted in the preseason that the Avalanche (at 7-1 odds) would win the Stanley Cup (last year, I correctly forecast the Lightning would win), and there's absolutely no reason to back off now, given the Avalanche's 9-game win streak.  Take Colorado.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Los Angeles Angels.  After coming out of nowhere to go 3-3 with a 3.09 ERA in his first six starts, southpaw Cole Irvin of the Oakland A's has cooled off over his next four starts.  He's been hit pretty hard in his last two, which both came against fellow AL West teams, so Irvin is hoping that the third time in a row is a charm as he faces the Angels for the first time in his career.  The good news for the 27-year-old today is that the Halos are hitting just .239 against left-handed pitching this season and they are also without Mike Trout as he recovers from a lower leg injury.  You might think that Irvin has enjoyed the confines of his pitcher-friendly ballpark in Oakland but that hasn't been the case this season.  In six starts at the Coliseum, Irvin has a 4.50 ERA while in four starts elsewhere his ERA is almost a run-and-a-half lower at 3.09.  Veteran southpaw Jose Quintana gets the start for the Angels and the A's are 60-24 (+31 games on the moneyline) in their last 84 games vs. LH starters.  Take Oakland.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Phoenix finds itself in a 2-1 series hole after dropping Games 2 + 3 to the Lakers by scores of 109-102 and 109-95.  The good news for Phoenix is that NBA teams down 2-games-to-1 have gone 16-4 ATS if they lost Game 3 by 14+ points, including 8-0 ATS if their win percentage was not worse than their opponent's.  The Suns are 6-2 ATS their last eight off back to back point spread defeats.  And NBA road underdogs are 73-54 ATS in the playoffs off two ATS losses if they owned a better W/L percentage than their opponent.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the San Diego Padres.  Two former AL Cy Young winners meet this afternoon in Houston in the third and final game of this inter-league series.  The Pads swept the Astros in three games last season, and will go for another 3-0 sweep today.   But it won't be easy, given the pitching match-up.  Neither the Padres' Blake Snell nor the Astros' Zack Greinke will win a Cy Young this season, but both pitchers can still throw a gem when called upon.  Snell has been a bit disappointing, though, in his first season in San Diego, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 44 innings, including a 7.85 ERA and 2.01 WHIP on the road.  Meanwhile, Greinke has owned the Padres in his career, with a 13-3 record, 2.44 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 26 starts.  And his teams are 161-89 (+44.7 games on the moneyline) in his home career starts, while Snell's teams are 8-16 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) in his last 24 road starts.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the game between Memphis and Utah.  The Jazz exploded for 141 points on Wednesday, as they won SU/ATS as a 10-point home favorite, 141-129.  But off that high-scoring game, we'll look for a much lower-scoring game on Saturday.  Indeed, NBA teams off 138+ point games have gone 'under' 90-67 since 1991 when the O/U line was 224+ points.  Moreover, the Grizzlies have gone 'under' in 34 of their last 48 home games, and 32-14-2 'under' off a loss by more than 8 points.  Meanwhile, the Jazz are 33-16-1 'under' in their road playoff games off a SU win.  Take the Grizzlies/Jazz Game 3 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Detroit Tigers.  The Tigers pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season on Friday when they beat the Yankees and their star pitcher, Gerrit Cole.  This afternoon they go from their All Star $324 Million Man on the mound to little known 22-year-old RH Deivi Garcia.  The young Dominican may one day be a star like Cole, but for now he is just trying to make a name for himself on the big stage.  Garcia has just seven MLB starts under his belt, and this year he's posted an uninspiring 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his lone start.  But Garcia has one of the best lineups in the league backing him up and some pretty good mentors in the clubhouse as well, so he has a great shot at getting his first win of 2021 this afternoon.  Despite their surprising loss here last night, the Yankees are still 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Tigers and 11-5 in the last 16 here at Comerica Park.  New York is also 9-2 (+8 games on the moneyline) in its last 11 games vs. AL Central Opponents.  Take the Yankees to bounce back on Saturday afternoon.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets won here in Game 3, but are a miserable 43-69 ATS on the road off a point spread win, including 1-10 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins vs. an opponent off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for Denver this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that #3-seeded teams are a poor 32-56 ATS off an upset playoff win, if they don't trail in the series.  Take Portland minus the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Portland/Denver game.  The Nuggets have won the past two games by scores of 128-109 and 120-115.  But off those two high-scoring wins, we'll look for a lower-scoring affair this afternoon, as teams have gone 'under' the total 65.0% since 1991 if they scored more than 116 in back to back playoff games.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Miami is just one loss away from its summer vacation, so this is a 'must win' game for Erik Spoelstra's men.  I believe it will rise to the occasion, as Miami is 53-25 ATS off back to back losses, when matched up against an opponent off a straight up win.  Additionally, in the first 3 rounds of the NBA playoffs, home underdogs of less than 6 points have cashed 64.9% since 1991 off a SU/ATS home playoff loss.  Take Miami.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  To say Giants RHP Anthony DeSclafani might want to redeem himself tonight would be a huge understatement.  After all, in his last start -- also against these Dodgers -- DeSclafani gave up a career-high 10 runs in 2 2-3 innings.  That start was his shortest of the year, and it raised his ERA from 2.03 to 3.54.  I look for DeSclafani to bounce back tonight, as his teams are 9-6 (+9.2 games on the moneyline) when installed as a road underdog, priced from +150 to +200.  And his ERA in his 7 nighttime starts this season is 1.87, with a 0.80 WHIP.  Take the Giants as a big underdog on Friday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  We played on Los Angeles in Game 2, and were (obviously) disappointed with the result, as the Mavericks upset L.A. for the 2nd straight game, 127-121, as a 7-point underdog.  But that upset win has triggered a powerful 144-67 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off upsets that are not favored by 2+ points in their current game.  Even worse for the Mavericks:  they're 2-13 ATS their last 15, and 33-66-1 ATS their last 100, off back to back underdog ATS wins when they're not getting 6+ points in their current game.  And the Clippers are 22-8 ATS on the road off a loss.  Finally, NBA favorites off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, and down exactly two games in a Playoff series (i.e., 0-2 or 1-3), are 60-39-3 ATS since 1991.  Lay the points with the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Denver Nuggets/Portland Trail Blazers game.  These two teams come into tonight's game off back to back high-scoring affairs.  Portland won Game 1, 123-109, while Denver took Game 2, 128-109.  We'll look for a lower-scoring game tonight, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' the total 60% of the time since 1991 after back to back games that totaled 230+ points.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into several of my favorite Totals systems that are 92-58, 177-131, and 136-101 since 1991.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.