Sports Picks & Predictions

At 4:05 pm, our NFC West Division Game of the Year is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Seattle.  The Niners were surprised by the Chicago Bears in Week 1, as they lost, 19-10, as a 7-point road favorite.  Meanwhile, Seattle upset Denver, 17-16, on Monday night.  We'll take the 49ers to bounce back strong on Sunday afternoon, as they're a spectacular 67-28 ATS off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Moreover, in week 2, NFL teams off a road loss in Week 1, that made the playoffs the previous year, have covered 68% since 1980 against foes off an upset win to start the season.  Finally, the Seahawks are a poor 6-16-1 ATS in their road openers.  Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Milwaukee Brewers.  Today will be Gerrit Cole's 30th start of the season for the Yankees.  Cole is far from done, too, as the veteran RHP could get three more starts before the end of the regular season.  And then he will likely carry the load for New York in the post-season.  Cole is having another outstanding campaign with an 11-7 record and 3.30 ERA, with a league-leading 228 strikeouts in 177 1/3 innings.  The Yanks are making a rare regular season appearance in Milwaukee and, given how the first two games of the series have gone, they may not want to come back anytime soon.  But Cole can get New York back on track this afternoon with another one of his strong starts.  He is an inter-league machine with an 18-7 record (.720) and 2.84 ERA in 34 starts covering just under 216 innings against teams from the opposite league.  The Yankees are also 10-4 in Cole's last 14 starts as a road favorite, and 52-26 in their last 78 games vs. teams from the NL Central.  Meanwhile, Jason Alexander's ERA in his home starts is an ugly 5.81, and the Brewers have lost four of those five starts.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tampa Bay.  Last week, the Buccaneers played the Cowboys in a match-up of two Playoff teams from the previous season.  Tampa emerged victorious, 19-3, and now travels to play the Saints, who also won its season opener.  We'll fade Tampa Bay, as road favorites have only covered 33% since 1980 in Week 2, if they won SU/ATS in Week 1 against a team that made the playoffs the previous season.  New Orleans is 17-5 SU and 14-8 ATS its last 22 games vs. Tampa Bay, including 2-0 last year, and 7-1 SU/ATS since Dec. 2018.  Take the Saints + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Bill Belichick's men were blown out, 20-7, by Miami in Week 1, while Pittsburgh upended Cincy, 23-20, in overtime.  But with New England off that loss, we'll lay the short number vs. the Steelers.  For technical support, consider that New England is 23-8 ATS its last 31 (and 10-0 SU/ATS its last 10) non-division games when not favored by 3+ points, if it was off a SU loss, and its foe was off a SU win.  Take the Patriots.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New York Giants.  New York won a thriller last week when it scored a touchdown and two-point conversion to stun the Titans (who owned the AFC's #1 record last season), 21-20.  Unfortunately, Game 2 favorites, that defeated a Playoff team from the previous season in its opener, have covered just 42% against foes off a SU loss.  I look for New York to suffer a letdown on this Sunday.  Take Carolina + the points.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over San Diego State.  Last season, the Aztecs upset the Utes, 33-31, as an 8-point home underdog.  We'll take Utah in this revenge match, as the Utes have cashed 70% at home over the past 42 years when playing with revenge from an upset loss.  And they've cashed 80% since 1980 when playing with revenge against a non-conference foe.  San Diego State, meanwhile, is a soft 37% ATS on the road vs. revenge-minded, non-conference foes.  And Utah also falls into a 75-46 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams in non-conference games.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over SMU.  The Mustangs and Terrapins are both 2-0 on the season.  SMU dispatched North Texas (48-10) in Week 1, and Lamar (45-16) last Saturday, while Maryland blew out Buffalo and Charlotte in its games.  The Terps have been installed as a small favorite here, and that's not good news for SMU.  Indeed, the Mustangs are a wallet-breaking 13-39 ATS as a road underdog of +10 (or less) points.  Even worse, NCAAF underdogs are 0-13 ATS their last 13 (and 8-42 ATS their last 50) off back to back games in which they scored more than 40 points.  Take Maryland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves.  Sometimes a starting pitcher can get redemption for a disappointing season with just one start.  Tonight could be just such an instance for the Phillies and RH Aaron Nola.  It's been a tough season for sure for the 29-year-old who has called Philadelphia home since he came into the league in 2015.  In 28 starts covering 179 1/3 innings, Nola is 9-11 with a 3.31 ERA.  Those are not the type of numbers expected from an ace on a winning team.  But a quality start and victory against the defending World Series champs should give Nola perhaps a big boost going forward.  He threw two scoreless innings last Sunday at home against the Nationals before exiting due to an extended rain delay.  In 28 career starts vs. the Braves covering just under 176 innings Nola is 14-9 with a 3.43 ERA.  The Phils have won two of Nola's three starts vs. Atlanta this season by a combined score of 18-5.  Take Philly.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.  

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Toledo.  The Rockets come into this game with a 2-0 record, after winning home games vs. Long Island, 37-0, and UMass, 55-10.  But this is a monstrous step-up in class for Toledo, which will travel 140 miles south to play the Buckeyes in Columbus.  Toledo's generally been horrible out-of-conference when installed as an underdog of more than 2 points.  And especially when playing a .500 (or better) opponent, as it's gone 4-25 SU and 7-22 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for the Rockets on Saturday night.  Ohio State wasn't at its best last week, as it won by only 33 (as a 44.5-point favorite) vs. Arkansas State.  But the Buckeyes were without WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Julian Fleming, both of whom will play on Saturday night.  The return of All-American Smith-Njigba should be especially impactful, as he led OSU with 1606 receiving yards last season.  After Ohio State failed to cover the spread last week, several of my best NCAAF systems -- with records of 65-22, 277-189 and 30-4 ATS -- have been triggered on the Buckeyes.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Liberty.  Wake Forest was impressive last week in its blowout win at Vanderbilt.  The Deacs were favored by 13, and covered the spread in a 45-25 triumph.  They'll look to move their record to 3-0 SU/ATS, as 2-0 Liberty will pay a visit.  Wake is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS at home after scoring more than 30 points in back-to-back games.  And it's 6-0-1 ATS when priced from -7.5 to -28 points.  Lay the points with Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Kansas.  The Cougars will be happy to return to Houston for their 2022 home opener after road games against Texas-San Antonio and Texas Tech.  The Cougars split those two games, and will welcome the 2-0 Jayhawks to TDECU Stadium.  Kansas is 2-0 for the first time since the 2011 season after its upset win as a 2-touchdown underdog at WVU last week.  But Kansas hasn't won 3 straight games since 2009.  And it's a dismal 55-84-1 ATS its last 140, overall, including 7-19-1 ATS off a win, and 2-19-1 ATS if it owned a winning record!  Take Houston minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers + the points over Penn State.  Both of these teams come into this game with 2-0 records.  Penn State notched a Big 10 win at Purdue, 35-31, and then walloped Ohio, 46-10.  Auburn opened its season with a 26-point win over Mercer, and then outlasted San Jose State last Saturday, 24-16.  A year ago, the Nittany Lions bested the Tigers, 28-20, in Happy Valley, as a 4-point home favorite.  This season's game is in Auburn, where the Tigers have won 17 straight vs. non-conference foes.  Even better:  Auburn is 22-10 ATS at home when playing with revenge, including 9-1 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +10 points.  Finally, the Nittany Lions are a dismal 22-36-3 ATS vs. undefeated opponents, including 2-11 ATS on the road if the Nittany Lions were also undefeated, and also 3-15-1 ATS if its foe was off an ATS loss.  Take Auburn + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  Last Saturday, the Eagles went into Lincoln as a 23.5-point underdog, and handed Nebraska a 45-42 loss.  And then Nebraska Athletic Director, Trev Alberts, handed coach Scott Frost his walking papers.  Off that big upset win, I look for a letdown on the road in Birmingham.  Indeed, over the past 42 years, underdogs off upset road wins as 14-point (or greater) underdogs, have covered the spread just 39% in their next game when matched up against a .500 (or better) team.  Lay the points with the Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over South Alabama.  UCLA comes into this game with a 2-0 record following wins over Bowling Green (45-17) and Alabama St. (45-7).  South Alabama is also 2-0, as the Jaguars went up north last weekend and upset Central Michigan, 38-24, as a 6-point dog.  And they won SU/ATS in Week 1 against Nicholls St., 48-7.  Unfortunately, teams off an upset win, that are undefeated SU/ATS on the season, have covered just 41% since 1980 as double-digit dogs vs. foes off a SU win.  Even worse:  South Alabama is a woeful 0-8 ATS off a SU/ATS win when matched up against a foe off a SU win.  And the Bruins are a solid 25-7 ATS at home following a big offensive game where they scored 42+ points.  Take UCLA.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies.  Max Fried probably won't win the NL Cy Young, but he should definitely be part of the conversation.  Over the last four seasons, the 28-year-old has developed into one of most consistent and reliable left-handed starters in the game.  In 27 starts this season, Fried is 13-6 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and it seems like it doesn't matter where he pitches or who he faces -- Fried just goes out and gets quality innings almost every time.  Tonight will be Fried's third start of the season against the Phillies.  In 60 career games here at his home venue (now called Truist Park) covering 318 2/3 innings, Fried is 27-11 (.711) with a 2.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.  In 16 career games vs. the Phillies covering just under 64 innings, Fried is 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA.  In his last three starts against the Phils here at home, Fried has allowed four ER on 14 hits in 18 innings (a 2.00 ERA) with 16 strikeouts and four walks.  The Braves have won all three of those home meetings by a combined score of 24-9.  But perhaps Fried's most important role is that of a "stopper," as the Braves are 28-9 with him on the mound after they lost their previous game.  Take Atlanta.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Patrick Mahomes & Co. racked up 44 points last week in a 23-point blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals.  But off that offensive explosion, we will fade KC at home tonight.  Indeed, NFL home teams off a win by more than 20 points to start the season are an awful 1-13-1 ATS.  And the Chargers are 30-14-5 ATS on the road vs. division foes not off a loss.  Grab the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the San Diego Padres.  Here is an interesting inter-league match-up between two West division clubs that are hopelessly behind League-leading teams and therefore trying to stay alive in their respective Wild Card races.  Going into this game, the Mariners are in a battle (with the Rays and Blue Jays) for the top wild card spot, while the Padres are sitting in sixth in the NL standings, two games clear of the Brewers for the final Playoffs spot.  RH Luis Castillo -- acquired by Seattle at the trade deadline -- will get the start this afternoon for the home team.  Castillo has plenty of experience against the Padres from his time with Cincinnati in the National League.  In seven starts since joining the M's, Castillo is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in just over 43 innings.  And in his seven career starts vs. San Diego, Castillo has a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 40 innings.  The Padres' Mike Clevinger, in contrast, has a 6.00 ERA in his career starts vs. Seattle.  The M's ran into a red-hot pitcher last night in Yu Darvish but despite their loss here they're still 5-2 in their last seven inter-league games vs. teams with a winning record.  And they're 28-11 (+11.3 net games) this season as a favorite, priced from -125 to -175.  Take the Mariners.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Colorado Rockies.  Don't look now but here come the White Sox.  The team that was just about everyone's pick to win the AL Central took a while to get going, but now they're one of the hottest teams in the AL.  And they're doing it without their Hall of Fame Manager, Tony La Russa who was told by his doctors to step away from the game for a while (it's unknown when or even if La Russa will be back).  With bench coach Miguel Cairo as skipper, the Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 games and have moved into second place in the Division, just 2 1/2 games back.  RH Michael Kopech will get his 25th start of the season tonight.  The 26-year-old should be very glad to be pitching back at home tonight.  His last two were on the road and they were rough.  In his last three starts here on the South Side, Kopech has allowed five runs on 11 hits in 19 innings with 16 strikeouts and six walks.  In 12 career inter-league games (three starts) covering 27 2/3 innings, Kopech is 3-0 and has yet to allow a run (0.00 ERA)!  Meanwhile, Colorado has won just 27 of 99 games as road underdogs of +150 (or more).  Take the White Sox.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER the total.  This is a great pitching matchup tonight in the desert.  The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to rookie Ryne Nelson -- their Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2021 -- who will be making his second career start.  His debut was a sparkling one, as he shut out the Padres over 7 innings last Monday, in a 5-0 Arizona win.  Nelson struck out seven, and allowed just four hits, while walking none.  His mound opponent this evening will be southpaw All-Star, Tyler Anderson, who is 13-3 this season with a 2.76 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  In his two prior starts vs. Arizona this season, Anderson gave up just two runs and 13 baserunners over 13 innings, with 13 strikeouts.  The Dodgers are 11-6-1 UNDER the total in Anderson's last 18 starts.  And six of the previous seven games between these teams at Arizona have gone UNDER the total.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  These two teams split the season series, 1 game apiece.  Minnesota won, 34-31, at home, but Green Bay blew out the Vikings at Lambeau Field, 37-10, in the next-to-last game of the season.  However, QB Kirk Cousins didn’t play in that game due to COVID-19, so Green Bay was installed as a 13-point home favorite, and coasted to an easy win.  After last year's home win, the Vikings have now gone 11-6 ATS as a home dog/pk vs. Green Bay.  And NFC North Division home dogs, as a whole, have gone 91-70-3 ATS in division games.  Finally, in Game 1 divisional matchups between two teams that won at least 8 games the previous season, home dogs have cashed 71% since 1981.  Grab the points with the Vikings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Arizona.  We played on each of these two teams last week -- and won on both of them.  Miss State demolished Memphis 49-23, while Arizona upset San Diego State, 38-20.  But off its huge upset win, we will fade the Wildcats on Saturday night.  Arizona is a wallet-busting 39-76-2 ATS off a point spread win, including 0-7 ATS in non-conference games off a SU win as an underdog/PK.  Additionally, the Wildcats fall into negative 11-66, 89-178 and 53-139 ATS systems of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Baylor.  Last year, the Bears got the better of the Cougars, 38-24.  But that game was in Waco; this game is in Provo.  Baylor has covered just 1 of 8 non-conference games when playing a revenge-minded foe, if Baylor wasn't favored by 20+ points.  And BYU is a solid 33-21-1 ATS when playing with revenge, and not favored by 7+ points.  Take the Cougars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  The 'Huskers won last week (but didn't cover), and are now 1-1 SU, and 0-2 ATS.  We'll lay the points with Scott Frost's men, as Nebraska has gone 34-1 SU and 28-7 ATS if it didn't cover the point spread in either of its two previous games, and was priced between -9 and -31 points.  Take the Cornhuskers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates minus the points over Old Dominion.  The Monarchs won a big game last week when they upset Virginia Tech, 20-17, at home.  But off that emotional win over an in-state rival, we'll fade ODU on Saturday evening.  Indeed, underdogs have covered just 40% over the last 42 years off an upset home win to open their season.  Lay the points with the Pirates.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Tennessee.  This is a rematch of a game played in Knoxville last September.  Pitt was a 3.5-point road favorite in that game, and won, 41-34.  And that game was representative of Tennessee's problems over the last five seasons.  It just hasn't stepped up vs. winning teams.  Indeed, the Vols are 8-23 SU and 11-20 ATS vs. winning foes, including 3-11 SU/ATS their last 14.  Certainly, the Vols hope to turn things around this season.  They won their opener last Thursday, 59-10, over Ball State.  And they've now been installed as a road favorite against last year's ACC Champ, Pittsburgh, which won, 38-31, vs. rival West Virginia.  Still, we'll go against the Volunteers, as they're an awful 20-36-2 ATS off a home win, including 0-7 ATS since 2020.  And if they won their previous game by 27+ points, then they've gone 3-18 ATS, including 0-9 ATS with revenge.  Grab the points with Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers + the points over North Carolina.  Georgia State lost at South Carolina last week, 35-14, while North Carolina upset Appalachian St, 63-61.  The Panthers return home this week, and will seek to avenge a road loss at North Carolina last September.  The Tar Heels were favored by 25.5 last season, and defeated Georgia St, 59-17.  We'll take the Panthers + the points, as home underdogs have covered 61% of their home openers vs. non-conference foes since 1980, when playing with revenge from a 24-point (or worse) defeat.  Even better, the Tar Heels are an awful 11-30-1 ATS off a road win in which they scored more than 30 points.  And they're 1-9 ATS their last 10 off a point spread win.  Take Georgia State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Northwestern.  Duke shut out Temple, 30-0, last week to kick off its 2022 season.  And it now will travel to Evanston to play Northwestern.  The Wildcats also are 1-0, as they upset the Nebraska Cornhuskers, in Dublin, Ireland, to open their season.  They'll try to follow that up with a home win against the Blue Devils, who have won each of the last three meetings between these teams.  Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they're a woeful 27-46-2 ATS as a home favorite, including 0-9 ATS when priced from -8 to -12.  And Duke is 34-20-1 ATS as an underdog vs. a revenge-minded foe.  Take Duke.

At 12 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Southern Miss.  The 'Canes had a cupcake game to kick off 2022, as they blew out Bethune-Cookman here last Saturday, 70-13.  Southern Miss lost by 2 points to Liberty, but covered the point spread.  Off that 57-point win, we'll lay the wood with Miami today.  Over the last 42 seasons, favorites that scored more than 49 points in Week 1 are 67.1% ATS in Week 2 when playing an opponent off an ATS win that gave up more than 10 points in its previous game.  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Boston Red Sox.  You probably didn't expect to hear this come September but every game is crucial for the Orioles now.  Baltimore appears serious that it's not just going to settle for a winning campaign -- this team wants a spot in the post-season.  They have recently called up yet another talented prospect in IF Gunnar Henderson and are starting the 21-year-old virtually every game.  So needless to say the O's need to take at least two of these next three at home against the Red Sox -- a team that they can beat on a regular basis for a change.  RH Austin Voth will get things started for the O's.  The 30-year-old journeyman has found a home in Baltimore and he's making the most of it.  In 17 games (13 starts) with the Orioles, Voth is 4-2 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 63 innings.  And in six starts at Camden Yards, Voth is 3-0 while the Orioles are an incredible 6-0.  The Red Sox are 3-13 in their last 16 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game (they were just shut out by Tampa).  Take the Orioles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants.  If the Brewers are going to turn their recent fortunes around and have any chance of making the post-season, now is the time to do it.  They are looking at a double-header today with the 65-70 Giants, followed by three more at home over the weekend against the Reds.  At the very least, they will need to go 3-2 but taking four games out of the five is almost mandatory considering the situation.  And they start with their Cy Young-winning ace on the mound this afternoon.  Corbin Burnes won't be taking down the hardware this season, but he still has some very solid overall numbers even if he's been struggling lately.  The 27-year-old RH needs to put his last three starts behind him (0-1 with an 8.22 ERA) and pitch like he's capable of today.  The good news is that somehow the Brewers managed to win two of those last three starts and they are still 17-10 overall when he goes to the hill this season.  The Brewers are also 8-2 in Burnes' last 10 September starts, while the Giants are a poor 9-23 vs. NL starters with an ERA of 3.20 (or less), and 6-24 as a road underdog (minus 14.6 net games).  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies.  Milwaukee lost, 10-7, in extra innings last night, so they look to rebound on this Wednesday afternoon.  Eric Lauer will get the start for Craig Counsell's men, and time is running out for them, as they're now 3 games behind the Phillies and Padres with just 27 games to go.  Notwithstanding last night's victory, the Rockies are still a poor 15-30 their last 45 games.  And they're 3-12 off a win in their previous game.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  This past weekend's home series against the Nats was supposed to be an automatic 3-0 to ensure that New York would stay at least three games ahead of Atlanta.  Instead, the unthinkable occurred as the Mets dropped two of the games while the Braves swept the Marlins to get within a game of a tie for first place.  So, if you think New York is going into Pittsburgh over-confident, you might want to think again.  The Mets and Pirates were rained out yesterday, so they'll give it another go this evening.  New York will send 10-game winner Taijuan Walker to the mound.  The 30-year-old RH has a chance to right his own ship after a month of August he would like to erase completely.  Despite a disastrous last month, Walker still has a 10-3 record with a 3.45 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 23 starts.  And a veteran like him should able to put the bad stuff aside and focus on what he needs to do going forward.  New York is a solid 36-14 off a loss this season, and 10-2 off back to back losses.  Meanwhile, the Pirates are 7-20 in their last 27 games vs. teams from the NL East, and 1-10 at home with Mitch Keller on the mound.  Take the Mets.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees.  Don't look now, but what once appeared to be an insurmountable deficit that the Rays had behind the Yankees is now down to just four games.  The Yanks looked like they had righted the ship last week when they won five in a row, but with the loss here in St. Pete last night, they've now lost six of their last seven and are in danger of being caught in the standings -- something that seemed all but impossible a couple of months ago.  The struggles of their newest starter, RH Frankie Montas, have been well documented by now.  And if the Yanks ever needed him to finally come through for them -- now is the time.  And there are a couple of reasons to think that he will.  First, Montas' last start was his longest since he came to the Bronx -- six innings -- and in his last two outings, Montas has logged 12 strikeouts and only one walk.  Second, Montas does well against Tampa.  In six career games vs. the Rays (five starts), Montas is 2-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, with 32 strikeouts and five walks in 33 2/3 innings.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets minus 1.5 runs over the Washington Nationals.  Just when things looked like they were going great for the Mets, last night their ace, Max Scherzer, left the game early against his former team with what was described as side fatigue.  Even worse:  the Nats' hitters went nuts and embarrassed New York at home.  But the Mets are still in first place, so they will look to move past that game and bounce back against a bad DC team this afternoon behind RHP Carlos Carrasco.  The 35-year-old looks like a solid candidate for Comeback Player of the Year.  In 23 starts covering 126 1/3 innings, Carrasco is 13-5 with a 3.92 ERA.  Carrasco has already faced the Nationals three times this season, with some pretty sparkling results.  In just over 17 innings, Carrasco is 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 1.04 WHIP vs. Washington.  His last start against them was five innings of shutout, four-hit ball right here at Citi Field in a 5-0 Mets victory on June 1.  Despite their win here last night, the Nats are still just 7-20 in their last 27 games in Queens.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  There was a time -- not that long ago -- when Madison Bumbarner was one of the most feared pitchers in the game.  It appears those days are gone as the veteran southpaw -- still only 33-years-old -- is on his way to his third consecutive losing season.  Bumgarner is signed through 2024, so unless the D-Backs are able to move him, we'll likely see him in an Arizona uniform for a while despite his sub-par numbers.  Speaking of sub-par, Brewers ace Corbin Burnes has been just that in his last three starts (1-1 with a 7.04 ERA in 15 1/3 innings).  But two of those were against the Dodgers, so Burnes likely isn't overly-concerned, and will look to get back on track tonight against an Arizona team that he completely dominated when he previously faced it (7 IP; 0 R; 4 H; 13 K; 0 BB).  Anything close to that performance tonight should result in a Brewers win as they try to keep pace with the Cardinals.  Despite the loss last night, the Crew is still 19-8 in the last 27 meetings.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Notre Dame.  The Marcus Freeman-era will start this Saturday, and it will be at a most difficult venue for visiting teams.  Ohio State is a dominant 134-32-1 straight-up, and 94-64-4 ATS at home when not favored by 22+ points.  Even better:  dating back to 1979, Ohio State has won 34 straight season openers, if it was playing at home, and has gone 21-11 ATS in those games.  Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish are a wallet-breaking 15-26-1 ATS in their first road game of the season, including 0-3 SU/ATS as double-digit underdogs.  And they've covered just 21 of 52 road games vs. Big 10 Conference foes.  Lay the points with Ohio State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Alabama.  The Aggies won their season opener last week, at home, vs. UConn, 31-20, and outgained the Huskies by 178 yards.  Here, they've been installed as a 6-touchdown underdog vs. the #1-ranked Crimson Tide, and we'll happily grab the points.  Alabama has burned money over the past 42 years in its home openers, including 3-9 ATS when priced as a 28-point (or greater) favorite.  Utah State, on the other hand, is 10-5 ATS its last 15 road openers.  And it's a profitable 33-15 ATS when getting more than 3 points away from home (including 15-5 ATS when getting more than 20).  Take the Aggies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Memphis.  These two teams met last season at Memphis, and the Tigers upset Miss State, 31-29.  We had a big play on Memphis in that game, but will reverse course, and take the revenge-minded Bulldogs on Saturday night.  Over the previous 33 years, Mississippi State has cashed 64.2% as a revenge-minded favorite, including 82% in non-conference games!  That bodes well for Miss State on Saturday.  As does the fact that Memphis is 0-8 ATS its last 8 when playing on the road against a revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the N. Texas Mean Green + the points over SMU.  The Mean Green play with revenge from three blowout losses to the Mustangs (35-12, 65-35, 49-27) the past three seasons.  Here, the Mean Green will play with a game under its belt (while SMU will be taking the field for the first time this season).  And the Mean Green were impressive in their first game, as they earned a blowout win at UTEP.  North Texas is 17-6 ATS at home off a road win.  Additionally, the Mean Green fall into a 131-74 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as a 34-14 ATS 'momentum' angle, based on their 18-point blowout win last week.  Grab the points with North Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over the San Diego State Aztecs.  Last season, San Diego State went into Tucson, and pummeled Arizona, 38-14.  But you know what they say about paybacks!  And Arizona falls into a terrific 95-55 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain teams in a revenge situation.  The Aztecs, meanwhile, have covered just 40% since 1980 as favorites vs. revenge-minded non-conference foes.  And Arizona has cashed 71% since 1980 as underdogs when playing with revenge vs. non-conference opposition.  Take the Wildcats + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Cincinnati. Luke Fickell's men have gone 22-2 SU and 14-8 ATS the past two seasons, but I expect a big drop-off this season.  The Bearcats lost QB Desmond Ridder, RB Jerome Ford and WR Alec Pierce, among others, on offense.  And they also lost six defensive starters from a unit which finished #5 in scoring defense.  Cincinnati may get better as the season progresses, but it's too much to ask of this team to go into Fayetteville, and win a season opener.  The Razorbacks are a solid 34-5-1 straight-up in their last 40 home openers, and have covered the spread 60% of the time, including 12-3 ATS when priced from +3 to -20.5 points.  Cincinnati, meanwhile, is a soft 14-28 SU and 16-22 ATS in its road openers, including 5-22 SU and 11-16 ATS when priced as an underdog.  Lay the points with Arkansas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Houston.  Each of these teams come into 2022 off great seasons last year.  Houston capped off a 12-2 campaign with a 17-13 victory over Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl, while UTSA also went 12-2, but lost in the Frisco Bowl to San Diego St., 38-24.  The Roadrunners have been dominant here in the Alamo City, as they've won 10 straight home games, and have gone 7-3 ATS in this stretch.  Texas-San Antonio has also covered 67% as home dogs of +10 or less points, while Houston has covered just 13 of 37 as a road favorite of 10 or less points.  Finally, in match-ups between two teams that won 80% (or more) of their games the previous season, teams installed as home dogs in their home openers have covered the spread 69% since 1980.  Grab the points with Texas-San Antonio.

At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays minus 1.5 runs over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The Buccos acquired 24-year-old Johan Oviedo in the trade which sent Jose Quintana to the St. Louis Cardinals.  This will be Oviedo's first start with Pittsburgh, but he was 0-9 in his 19 career starts with St. Louis (which went 4-15 in those games).  Including relief appearances, Oviedo was 2-9 in his stint in St. Louis, with a 4.65 ERA.  It's hard to imagine his results will be better in a Pirates uniform, given the Pirates' lack of offense (463 runs, #28 MLB).  And, certainly, Oviedo's first test as a Pirate is against a difficult opponent, as Toronto's offense ranks #7 in baseball, and his mound opponent is also one of MLB's best.  Some players are sorry to see the month of August come to a close while others are glad it's September.  Count Blue Jays ace Alek Manoah among the latter group.  Although his ERA was a solid 3.34 last month, Manoah managed just one win and the Blue Jays went 1-4 in his five August starts.  That makes them 1-5 in his last six trips to the mound when you add on his last start of July.  But Manoah is still a very dangerous starter and he's built for the long haul so don't be surprised if the big RH finishes the season very strong -- and the Jays follow suit.  He can get things started tonight with this trip south to Pittsburgh to begin a three-game set against the 49-81 Pirates.  It will be Manoah's first start against the Bucs as he's normally used to much tougher competition (Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, etc.).  In four career inter-league starts, Manoah is 2-1.  Additionally, Toronto went 5-0 in Manoah's September starts in 2021 and it's also 9-4 this season when Manoah goes on five or six days' rest.  Take the Jays minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Guardians over the Baltimore Orioles.  The Orioles welcomed their latest top prospect up to the Show last night and 3B Gunnar Henderson didn't disappoint.  In his second at-bat, the 21-year-old from Alabama crushed a home run for his first Major League hit while leading the O's to a 4-0 victory.  It was their first win of this series, so they will go for a four-game split tonight in the finale  It won't be easy however as the visitors have to face former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber.  The veteran RH is having another strong season, posting a 3.02 ERA in 24 starts with 153 strikeouts in 152 innings with 32 walks.  The only numbers that are sub-par for an ace is Bieber's 8-7 record.  But Bieber has been a Bird killer in his career.  In three lifetime starts against the Orioles, Bieber is 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.54 WHIP with 37 strikeouts and two walks in 24 innings.  The Guardians are also 53-23 (+18 net games) as a home favorite the last 2 seasons, and 59-27 (+12.3 net games) in Bieber's career when favored.  Take Cleveland.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers minus 1.5 runs over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Zach Thompson will get the start for the Pirates this afternoon.  Thompson is 0-6 in his last 10 starts, and he's 2-15 in his last 31 starts.  Even worse, the Bucs have lost 23 of those 31 games.  His ERA this season is 5.40, and it's 6.58 over his last three outings.  And his career ERA vs. the Brewers is 6.62.  Milwaukee will counter with Freddy Peralta, who was understandably rusty when he returned from the injured list on August 3.  The Brewers didn't let him go past 5 innings in his first three starts, but he went 6 innings in each of his last two games, and allowed 2 runs over those 12 innings, including a 6 IP, 0 ER performance last Friday.  His ERA over his last three starts is 1.69, and his WHIP is 0.87.  And his seven career starts vs. Pittsburgh, his ERA is 2.09.  It's true that Thompson is well-rested, with nine days off in between this start, and his previous outing.  But the Bucs are 0-7 in his starts when he was well-rested with at least 7 days off.  Take Milwaukee minus 1.5 runs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  In what could be a preview of the NLCS, the Dodgers come into Shea tonight for the first of four games that for sure will be closely watched and analyzed by many.  The Dodgers will start southpaw Andrew Heaney, while the Mets will go with veteran Taijuan Walker.  The 30-year-old RHP is 10-3 with a very nice 3.38 ERA in 22 starts covering just over 117 innings.  Walker has allowed just two earned runs in his last two starts combined but received very little run support in those -- both no-decisions.  He will look for the bats to return for him tonight at home as they did in his four starts prior to that when the Mets plated a total of 31 runs.  The Mets were shut out, 1-0, in their last game, but are 35-12 off a loss.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Angels.  Almost a month after being acquired at the trade deadline by the Yankees, RHP Frankie Montas is still looking for his first win in Pinstripes.  To say that the 29-year-old has been a disappointment since joining New York from Oakland would be a big understatement.  But if Montas can put up four victories and a 3.19 ERA in 19 starts with the A's, then he certainly should be able to do at least that with a much superior Yanks club.  The good news is that New York is still comfortably in first place and there's still plenty of time for Montas to right the ship (before a trip to the bullpen would be considered as an option).  A start against a bad Angels team with which Montas is very familiar could be just what the Doctor ordered.  In 15 games -- 12 starts -- covering 70 1/3 innings, Montas is 4-2 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.12 WHIP vs. the Halos.  And here at Angels Stadium he is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in six games -- five starts -- covering 30 innings.  New York won the three games earlier this season (in New York) by a combined 17-3 score, and is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings here in Orange County.  Take the Yankees.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over the Miami Marlins.  The Marlins managed to score a huge upset over the best team in baseball on Saturday.  Of course it took a complete game from their ace -- and Cy Young candidate -- Sandy Alcantara, in a 2-1 Miami home victory.  The problem for the Marlins is that they only have one Sandy Alcantara on their staff and he won't be available today.  The Dodgers will send their 20-game winner from 2021 -- Julio Urias -- to the mound for his 25th start of the season.  Urias won't win 20 games this year, but the 26-year-old LHP is having another outstanding campaign.  In 24 starts, covering just under 134 innings, Urias is 13-7 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, with a 4.81 K:BB ratio (130 strikeouts and 27 walks).  The Mexican southpaw has been much better on the road this season than in L.A.  In 11 home starts, Urias is 5-3 with a 2.64 ERA.  However, in 13 road starts, he is 8-4 with a 2.13 number.  Despite their loss yesterday, the Dodgers are still 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Marlins.  Take Los Angeles minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners over the North Texas Mean Green.  Last season, UTEP had a winning campaign (7-6) for the first time since 2014, and earned a New Mexico Bowl bid.  The Miners did lose that bowl game, 31-24, to Fresno State (its 7th straight bowl defeat), but its season was still a success.  This season, the Miners return 15 players for 5th year-head coach, Dana Dimel, who was 5-27 in his first three seasons in El Paso.  The Miners fell to the Mean Green, 20-17, last season on a late field goal.  And that was UTEP's 5th straight defeat in this series.  We'll take UTEP to avenge that defeat as it falls into a 67-36 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, revenge-minded Conference USA teams have gone 175-137 ATS at home vs. conference foes, if our revenger wasn't favored by more than 3 points.  And North Texas is a wallet-busting 4-15 ATS its last 19 road games vs. revenge-minded opponents.  Finally, the Miners are 8-2 ATS in their home openers when installed as a PK/Underdog, while North Texas is a poor 3-15 SU and 6-12 ATS vs. an opponent playing its home opener.  Take Texas El Paso.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs.  The Brew Crew lost in extra innings last night, 4-3, which was its 3rd straight defeat.  Tonight, Brandon Woodruff will get the start for Craig Counsell's men, and he's 5-0 in eight home starts this season (Milwaukee is 7-1 in those games), with a 2.51 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP.  Woodruff has also been dominant vs. the Cubs.  In his last eight starts vs. them, Woodruff has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of those 8 games.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Tennessee Titans.  Last week, Arizona lost, 24-17, to the Baltimore Ravens (who also beat Tennessee, 23-10, in Week 1).  The Cards won their first preseason game, 36-23, at Cincinnati, while Tennessee downed Tampa Bay last Saturday, 13-3.  So, the Cardinals and Titans are each 1-1 in the preseason, but Tennessee has scored just 23 points, while Arizona has tallied 53 points.  That bodes well for Arizona as an underdog tonight, as NFL teams, with an offensive average greater than 12 points than their opponent, have covered 79% since 1987 at Game 3 forward, if they were off a straight-up loss.  Grab the points with the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Los Angeles Angels.  The Blue Jays' troubles continue as the Angels spanked them at home, 12-0, in the first game of this weekend series.  Despite the presence of two of the best players in the game -- Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani -- the Angels are a terrible team right now.  They're also without their closer for this series as Ryan Tepera is unvaccinated and therefore could not make the trip across the border into Canada (though they didn't need him in their rout on Friday night).  It will be Ohtani getting the ball this afternoon for his 22nd start of the season.  Ohtani's numbers tell you everything you need to know about the Angels.  He has some dominant pitching stats but is just 10-8 in the won-lost column so you can imagine how bad the records are of the other L.A. starters.  Alek Manoah will get his 25th start of the season.  The big RHP hasn't won a game since August 4, but is still 12-6 with a 2.66 ERA on the season.  Despite their win yesterday, the Angels are 4-13 in their last 17 road games vs. a RH starter.  And Toronto is an awesome 27-10 after scoring less than two runs.  Take Toronto.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Kansas City Royals.  Joe Musgrove will get the start for the Padres tonight.  And once again, the Padres will look to their ace to stop a losing streak.  The Padres and Musgrove were in a similar situation last Saturday, and Musgrove allowed just 1 run over 6 innings, in a 2-1 Padres victory.  That moved San Diego's record to 9-1 this season with Musgrove, if it was off a loss in its previous game (and 21-11 its last 32 in that situation).  Kris Bubic will start for the Royals, and he has a 5.40 ERA and 2.19 WHIP over his last three starts.  And his ERA in Interleague contests this year is an ugly 11.13.  The Royals are also a wallet-busting 13-36 (minus 11.1 net games) as an underdog of +150 (or more).  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets minus 1.5 runs over the Colorado Rockies.  The Mets were swept in a two-game subway series by their American League counterparts in the Bronx and then had the day off on Wednesday.  They return back to Queens tonight for the first of four against the Rockies, and they're 8-2 this season off back to back losses.  It's only been four starts, but RH ace Jacob deGrom has looked like the best pitcher on the planet again and that's scary considering he still likely doesn't have all his arm strength back.  Start number five comes against a team that can be dangerous at home but probably won't be able to offer much resistance here at Citi Field.  The Rockies are a dreadful 24-64 (minus 28.4 net games) as road underdogs vs. righties, while the Rockies are 0-6 with Ryan Felter in games with Over/Under lines less than 9 runs, and 1-6 in his starts as a road dog.  Meanwhile, this season, deGrom is 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 23 1/3 innings with 37 strikeouts and only one walk (how's that for a K:BB ratio!).  And in nine lifetime games vs. the Rox (all starts), deGrom is 5-1 with a ridiculous 1.17 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in just over 61 innings.  Take New York minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Cleveland Guardians.  Heading into the All-Star Break, Blake Snell was his normal inconsistent self, going 1-5 with a 5.22 ERA in 10 starts covering 50 innings.  Needless to say, Snell did not play in the Mid-Summer Classic in Los Angeles and he must have used those days off to figure out exactly what he was doing wrong -- and to correct it.  Since the break, the 29-year-old LHP has been one of the hottest starters in the National League.  In six starts since the All Star Game covering just under 34 innings, Snell is 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.  He threw in a bit of a clunker in his last start (5IP, 3ER) but his other 5 starts were brilliant.  Snell has some solid experience against the Indians/Guardians from his time in the American League.  In five starts vs. Cleveland covering 33 1/3 innings, Snell is 2-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  He's 10-7 with a 3.02 ERA in 21 inter-league starts covering just over 116 innings.  Take the Padres.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Baltimore Orioles.  The O's stayed hot with a win over the Red Sox in Williamsport, PA, in the MLB Little League Classic on Sunday.  They had Monday off and return home tonight to begin a series with the White Sox.  They would have normally been facing one of Chicago's lesser starters but Dylan Cease was rained out on Sunday, so Baltimore will have to face one of the most dominant starters in baseball instead.  How Cease didn't make the AL All-Star squad is still a huge mystery.  And he's done little since that time to make the voters feel better about his omission.  In 24 starts covering just under 134 innings, Cease is 12-5 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.  And his 178 strikeouts is good for second-best in the American League.  He had a rare, non-quality start his last time out (5 IP, 3 ER).  It was the 5th time this season he surrendered more than 1 earned run.  But he usually bounces back as he's been brilliant in his 4 starts following those sub-par outings (25 2/3 IP, 2 ER), while the ChiSox went 4-0 in those games.  The White Sox are also 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. teams with a winning record.  Take Chicago.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland A's.  The Mariners 4-game win streak was snapped yesterday by Oakland, so Seattle will look to start a new streak this afternoon.  And who better to have on the mound than recently acquired Luis Castillo.  All Castillo has done since June 28 is lead his teams to victories, as he's gone 3-0 in eight starts, with a 1.82 ERA, while his teams have gone 8-0.  Castillo has been installed as a big favorite today, and Oakland is 19-41, minus 14.3 net games, when priced as a home underdog.  Even worse:  the A's are 0-8 this year at home when the Over/Under line was less than 7 runs.  Meanwhile, the Mariners are a solid 23-7, +13.7 net games, as a road favorite.  Take the Mariners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres minus 1.5 runs over the Washington Nationals.  Last night, Josh Hader had yet another meltdown for his new team, as the MLB saves leader (29) allowed 3 runs without retiring a batter.  His ERA is 13.50 since joining the Padres.  And it's an unsightly 5.06 on the season.  I would be surprised if Hader was used tonight, given he also pitched Thursday night.  And that's probably a good thing for San Diego, at this point.  Joe Musgrove will get the start for Bob Melvin's club, and he's been a stopper for San Diego the last couple of seasons, as San Diego is 19-11 off a loss with Musgrove on the mound, including 7-1 this season.  Washington, meanwhile, is a poor 12-32 its last 44, including 3-9 off a win.  And it's 51-76 (minus 19 net games) its last 127 off a win.  Take San Diego minus 1.5 runs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over the Miami Marlins.  If someone had told you at the beginning of the season that two of the Dodgers would be leading the NL in Wins, you probably would have thought, Walker Buehler and Julio Urias ... or maybe Buehler and Clayton Kershaw.  You certainly wouldn't think those two leaders would be Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Anderson.  But sometimes this game throws you curveballs and the success of the bottom end of the Dodger rotation this season is certainly one of those.  The Dodgers got out of Milwaukee with a four-game split and now it's Anderson's turn to kick off this weekend series with the Marlins.  In 22 games -- 20 starts -- the 32-year-old southpaw is 13-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.  Those numbers earned Anderson his first ever All Star Game appearance last month and he hasn't slowed down since then as he is 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA in five starts covering 31 innings since the break.  Clearly, he loves his new ballpark as Anderson is 7-0 with a 2.30 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) at Dodger Stadium this year.  And he should find success tonight against a Marlins club which has only scored more than 3 runs in one of its last 18 games.  Take Los Angeles minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Brewers beat the mighty Dodgers in dramatic fashion on Tuesday night, plating two runs in the bottom of the 11th after falling behind in the top of the inning.  That sent the Brewer faithful home in delirious fashion but the Dodgers got their revenge last night.  So, now the Brewers will try to earn a 2-2 split in this series.  And who better to have on the mound for the home team than the reigning Cy Young Award winner?!  RHP Corbin Burnes is having another season that is worthy of consideration for top pitching honors in the NL.  In 23 starts, Burnes is 8-5 with a 2.39 ERA and he leads the league with a 0.92 WHIP as well as his 181 strikeouts and an 11.4 K rate.  Milwaukee's won 41 of Burnes' 65 career starts.  And Burnes' ERA in his career in day games is also solid (3.03).  Take the Brewers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves have so far made a statement in this series against the Mets.  Atlanta has taken the first two games of this four-game set by a combined score of 18-1.  The only problem, however, is that over the next two days, the Braves hitters will have to face possibly the two best pitchers in the game in Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.  Scherzer is up first tonight for the visitors.  The 38-year-old RHP has been nothing short of brilliant in his first season in Queens.  In 16 starts covering just under 103 innings, Scherzer is 8-2 with a 1.92 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 126 strikeouts and only 17 walks.  Those are the kind of numbers that could earn Scherzer his fourth Cy Young award.  In 29 career games vs. the Braves -- 27 starts -- Scherzer is 12-9 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.  But this season with the Mets, Scherzer is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.50 WHIP in his two starts vs. Atlanta.  And the Mets are also 31-11 off a loss.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Brewers have been installed as a home favorite vs. Ryan Pepiot and the Dodgers tonight.  And it's certainly justified with Brandon Woodruff on the mound tonight.  Woodruff has been dominant in his career as a home favorite, as the Brewers are 6-1 this season in that situation, and 29-14 in his career.  Woodruff's home ERA this season is 2.38, with a 0.76 WHIP.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles.  This will be Dean Kremer's fourth career start vs. Toronto.  Unfortunately for the Orioles' RH, his ERA is 11.33 and his WHIP is 2.03 in those three outings, and Baltimore went 0-3.  Even worse:  the Orioles are a wallet-busting 1-10 as an underdog of +150 (or higher) with Kremer, including 0-6 on the road.  Meanwhile, Alek Manoah is 2-0 in five career starts vs. Baltimore, with a 2.96 ERA and a sparkling 0.87 WHIP.  And the Blue Jays are 14-5 in his 19 home starts in his career, and 16-5 when Manoah has pitched with an extra day or two of rest.  Take Toronto.

At 7:05 pm our selections is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. Nestor Cortes has adopted the nickname “Nasty Nestor” among the Yankees faithful this season and it appears to be well deserved so far.  The 27-year-old Cuban southpaw is 9-3 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 21 starts with 125 strikeouts in 118 innings.  The thing about Cortes when you watch him pitch is that his delivery seems so effortless and he doesn't throw particularly hard so you naturally think he would be easy to hit.  Quite the opposite is true however.  MLB batters are still trying to figure Cortes out as the All-Star has allowed just 89 hits and he continues to baffle his opponents.  His efficient throwing style should be especially important as we get into the latter stages of the season and he will no doubt be an important part of his team in the post-season as well.   He's also done by far his best work at home this season with a 4-0 record and 2.06 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in nine starts here at Yankee Stadium vs. 5-3 and 3.15 in 12 starts on the road.  Take the Yankees.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Cincinnati Reds.  The Phillies acquired Noah "Thor" Syndergaard in a deadline deal which was pretty quiet compared to some of the other trades that went down at the same time.  Philly doesn't need Syndergaard to be a #1 or even a #2 starter -- they have Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola for that -- but rather just a guy who will give them quality innings as a back-end member of the rotation.  Thor did just that in his last start -- his second with the Phils -- as he tossed six strong innings, allowing two runs on six hits in a 4-3 Philadelphia victory over the Marlins.  He'll look to build on that tonight in the first of three against the Reds at home.  He couldn't have hand-picked a better opponent if he tried as Syndergaard is 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in six starts against the Reds covering just under 43 innings.  The Reds will go with Mike Minor who is threatening to re-define what a frustrating campaign looks like as the veteran RH is 1-9 with a 6.24 ERA in 12 starts in his first season in Cincinnati.  Take the Phillies.  As always good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Anaheim Angels.  Last night, Minnesota blew a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the 9th inning, en route to 5-3 extra innings loss to the Angels.  Given how tight the American League playoff race is, the Twins can't afford to lose any games, much less those where they have a 9th inning lead.  So, I expect the Twins to be in a determined mood this afternoon.  They'll hand the ball to RH Chris Archer, while LH Tucker Davidson will toe the rubber for the home team.  Unfortunately, for Anaheim, it's been dreadful when dressed up as an underdog.  In its last 45 as a dog, the Angels are 12-33 (-16.7 net games).  Even worse, they're 33-47 (minus 22.9 net games) vs. righties, and 25-33 (minus 19.8 net games) at home.  Archer has had great success vs. the Angels in his career, as he's 6-2 in nine starts, with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Milwaukee Brewers.  Bad things can happen to opposing pitchers in Colorado.  If you don't believe me, just ask the Cardinals' veteran RH starter Miles Mikolas.  Going into last Tuesday, Mikolas was cruising along in another great campaign -- 8-8 with a 2.92 ERA in 22 starts.  But his solid numbers were blown up at Coors Field, as he had one of the ugliest outings the Majors has seen this year -- and certainly one of the worst of his career.  In 2 2/3 innings, the 33-year-old allowed 10 runs on 14 hits to the Rockies in a 16-5 loss.  Mikolas has likely already forgotten that one -- and rightfully so -- as he prepares for start number 24 this afternoon against the Cards' division rivals in a pennant race.  In 90 night games -- 70 starts -- Mikolas is just 27-27 (.500).  However, in 43 afternoon games -- 36 starts -- he is 14-9 (.609).  Mikolas also has a winning record in his career vs. the Brewers (6-4).  And the Cards are 27-10 in their last 37 games vs. a LH starter.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres minus 1.5 runs over the Washington Nationals.  The Nats surprised San Diego last night with a 4-3 win behind Anibal Sanchez, who went 5 innings, and gave up 3 runs to lower his ERA to 7.20.  Still, Sanchez got a no-decision, and remained winless at 0-5.  This afternoon, the Nationals will hand the ball to another starter who has yet to notch a win this season.  Paolo Espino is 0-4 in 31 appearances (11 starts), and has a 4.04 ERA and 1.27 WHIP (but those numbers balloon to 5.14 and 1.40 when only his 11 starts are counted).  Espino will match up against veteran lefty Blake Snell, who has been brilliant in his last four starts (22 2/3 innings; 3 runs).  Washington has struggled vs. lefties, as it's 29-60 (minus 25.7 net games).  And it's also 13-41 (minus 17.7 net games) as a home dog of +125 (or more).  San Diego's last 10 wins were by an average of 4.6 runs per game, and it won by 2+ runs in eight of those 10 games.  We'll lay the 1.5 runs this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  Corbin Burnes' 2022 numbers look eerily similar to those he put up in 2021.  Yet despite his success, there probably isn't much chance that the two-time All Star will win his second NL Cy Young this season.  Burnes took home top pitching honors last season and is almost directly duplicating his stats against this season, but there is a lot more competition and Burnes has been a little snake-bit as well.  In 22 starts covering 136 innings, the 27-year-old RH a is 8-5 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.93 WHIP and his 175 punch-outs lead the league as well.  But there are several other strong candidates on contending teams and Burnes doesn't always get the support of his hitters that he should.  His last start is a perfect example as Burnes threw six innings of one-run, two-hit ball while striking out nine Reds batters.  But he took a no-decision in a 4-2 Crew loss to lowly Cincy.  In seven appearances here at Busch Stadium (four starts), Burnes is 3-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.74 WHIP.  And Milwaukee's 11-3 in his 14 road starts when priced as a road favorite of -150 or less.  Take the Brewers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa  Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles.  The Orioles shipped up to Boston yesterday for a rare one-game series against the Red Sox before heading down to Florida to start this series in St. Pete against the Rays.  Who would've thought that in mid-August these two teams would be virtually tied and in the heat of a Wild Card chase.  That's no surprise when it comes to the home team tonight, as the Rays have been contending for years and still have one of the best minor league systems.  But it's odd to think about no-name Baltimore being in the chase right alongside Tampa.  A player who is used to being in the playoff chase is the Rays' RHP Corey Kluber.  Gone are his Cy Young numbers, but the veteran is 7-6 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 21 starts covering 111 innings.  This will be Kluber's sixth start of the season vs. the O's and he's had some mixed results, with his best efforts by far coming in his two starts against them here at home.  Importantly, the O's are 13-38 in the last 51 meetings in St. Pete.  Take Tampa Bay.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros minus 1.5 runs over the Texas Rangers.  The Rangers won, 8-4, in 10 innings yesterday.  But that was an uncommon road victory for the Rangers.  Indeed, Texas is a poor 56-111 (minus 31.5 net games) its last 167 on the road.  This afternoon, the Rangers will face southpaw Framber Valdez.  And to say Texas has been dominated lately by 28-year-old lefty would be an understatement.  Valdez has faced Texas five times since Sept. 17, 2020, and he's 4-0 in those five starts, with an ERA of 1.11, and a WHIP of 0.89.  Texas will also start a southpaw -- Cole Ragans -- and the Astros are 26-11 (+6.2 net games) vs. lefties this season.  Finally, Texas has struggled in daytime affairs, with a 15-25 record (minus 10.1 net games), while Houston has excelled in the afternoon (29-13, +7.4 net games).  Lay the 1.5 runs with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners.  We played on the Yankees in Game 1 of this 3-game series, and easily won as the Pinstripes scored 9 runs.  Yesterday, though, the Yankees bats were completely stifled in a 13-inning, shutout defeat.  But off that 1-0 loss, we'll take New York to bounce back on this Wednesday afternoon.  Indeed, New York is 21-7 its last 28 after scoring less than 3 runs.  And it's also 111-58 (+34.7 net games) its last 169 after being shut out in its previous game.  Nestor Cortes will toe the rubber for New York today, and he's a perfect 5-0 in nine daytime starts, with a 1.81 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP.  Meanwhile, the Mariners have lost Robbie Ray's last three starts, and his ERA over those three contests is a woeful 7.81, while his WHIP was 2.05.  This will be Ray's first start vs. New York this season.  But last year, he faced the Yankees three times, and was 0-3 with a 6.60 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants.  Padres RHP Joe Musgrove went into the break as a first-time All Star with an 8-2 record and a 2.42 ERA through his first 16 starts.  Since the Mid-Summer Classic, Musgrove has struggled to find a victory, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts against the Mets, Twins, and Rockies.  A start against the Giants, though, may just be what the doctor ordered for the 29-year-old.  Musgrove owns a 3.66 ERA in nine career starts covering just under 52 innings vs. San Francisco.  Musgrove also has a 3.07 ERA in nine starts at Petco Park this season.  And the Pads are 3-0 in his last three starts vs. the Giants going back to October 2 of last year.  In fact, in those last three starts vs. San Francisco, Musgrove has allowed just one earned run in 19 innings.  The Giants will go with RH Alex Cobb who has lost his last five decisions, while the Giants have gone 2-7 in Cobb's last nine starts going back to the beginning of June.  And SF is a wallet-breaking 5-17 as a road underdog this year.  Take the Padres.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Tampa Bay Rays.  The Brewers got a boost last week from the return of RHP Freddy Peralta.  Peralta hadn't pitched since leaving a start against the Nats early on May 22 with an injury.  He came off the IL last Wednesday to face the Pirates in Pittsburgh and was obviously rusty, lasting just 3 2/3 innings.  I expect a much better performance tonight back at home in this inter-league game vs. the Rays.  In 55 career games here in Milwaukee -- 28 starts -- Peralta is 17-8 (68%) with a 3.44 ERA and 1.04 WHIP compared to 12-7 (63%) with a 4.47 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 52 games -- 31 starts -- on the road.  The Rays have never seen Peralta before, but he's done some good work in inter-league games, posting a 3.73 ERA in 17 games -- 6 starts -- vs. teams from the AL.  The Brewers are also 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Rays, including 2-0 in a short series earlier this season in St. Pete.  Take the Brewers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Boston Red Sox.  The Red Sox took an odd approach at the recent trading deadline feeling that they could still compete for a Wild Card spot.  They didn't want to be sellers and trade away veterans like JD Martinez or Nathan Eovaldi but they also didn't want to be big buyers because that would mean parting with quality prospects.  In case they're wrong about getting to this year's post-season, that could be a disaster.  From my perspective, they're not only wrong about having a chance of the post-season, they appear to have been drinking some strange Kool-Aid.  Just how bad has Boston been since the deadline?  How about a 1-4 record including a series loss (1-3) to the lowly Royals.  Things get much tougher this week with a visit from the Braves.  Charlie Morton kicks things off for the visitors.  Morton has struggled a bit lately, but he's still a dangerous veteran RH on the mound.  He's had quality starts in five of his last nine outings, and he's 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in five starts at Fenway Park covering 28 innings.  In contrast, Rich Hill has only had two quality starts in his last 10 starts.  Finally, the Braves are 5-1 in the last six meetings here in Boston, and they're 12-1 off back to back losses.  Take Atlanta.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners.  Jamison Taillon was victorious in his last start before the All Star break -- a 14-1 blowout of the Red Sox -- taking his record to 10-2 on the season with the Yankees.  The RH has tried three times since the break to get win number 11 but has failed to do so, despite his team winning two of those three second-half starts.  Taillon will try again tonight as the Yankees travel from St. Louis to Seattle.  They're no doubt happy to be leaving the Gateway City as the Cards were not very hospitable to their guests, sweeping the Yanks over three weekend games.  That puts New York's losing streak at a season-high five in a row.  In addition to his league-leading .833 winning percentage, Taillon has posted a solid 3.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 21 starts covering 113 2/3 innings this season.  The good news for tonight is that in two starts in Seattle's T-Mobile Park covering 13 innings, Taillon is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP.  The Yanks are also 35-16 in the last 51 road meetings with the M's.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers minus 1.5 runs over the Cincinnati Reds.  The Brewers have hit the skids with five losses in their last six games, including a 5-3 loss to the Pirates the last time Corbin Burnes took the mound.  The Brewers' ace gave up four earned runs in that game over 5 1/3 innings, which was the 2nd-most runs he's given up all year.  But Burnes generally bounces back off bad outings.  Indeed, when Burnes has given up 3 or more earned runs in a game, he's allowed 1 earned run or less his next time on the mound in 10 of his last 11.  In those 11 starts, he's allowed just 11 earned runs over 68 2/3 innings (1.44 ERA) and, importantly, Milwaukee has won nine of those 11 games.  Burnes will match-up against Cincy's Graham Ashcraft this afternoon.  In one prior start this season vs. the Brewers, Ashcraft gave up 6 runs over five innings, in a 7-3 defeat.  Take the Brewers minus 1.5 runs today.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Minnesota Twins.  There was one blockbuster trade at the deadline that shook up the entire league (Juan Soto and Josh Bell going to the Padres), several more that made some significant ripples throughout baseball, and then quite a few that pretty much went unnoticed.  An example of the latter is when the pitching-rich Dodgers sent swing man Mitch White to the Blue Jays in exchange for a couple of Minor Leaguers.  With the Dodgers getting Andrew Heaney back recently and Dustin May soon, there weren't going to be too many starting opportunities for the 27-year-old RH.  But with the Jays, it's a different story.  White will make his Toronto debut tonight after posting a 3.70 ERA in 15 games -- 10 starts -- covering 56 innings for the Dodgers.  The Twins will go with RHP Dylan Bundy who has a 5.04 ERA in 18 starts covering just over 89 innings in his first season with Minnesota.  Bundy has a winning record overall (6-5) but the Twins are 4-11 in his last 15 starts going back to April 29.  Take the Jays.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds.  Milwaukee returns to American Family Field tonight, and will turn to southpaw Eric Lauer to try to snap its 4-game losing streak.  And Lauer's done his best work at home this season, as he's 3-1 in eight starts with a 2.85 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP.  Lauer last pitched six days ago, when he held the Red Sox to one run over five innings, in a 9-4 Brewers win.  And Milwaukee's 9-3 this season with Lauer when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest.  Yesterday, the Brewers lost 5-4 to Pittsburgh -- its second straight one-run defeat -- as the Pirates completed the 3-game sweep.  Still, Milwaukee is 7-5 in its last 12 games, including 5-1 at home.  And it has scored 5+ runs in eight of those 12 games.  In contrast, Cincinnati's offense has scored 3, 3, 2 and 0 in its last four games.  And that doesn't bode well for the Reds tonight, as they're 5-20 after scoring less than four runs in each of their three previous games.  Even worse:  Cincy is 3-15 when priced as a road underdog of +175 to +250.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Minnesota Twins.  Alek Manoah broke out as a rookie in 2021, going 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA in 20 starts -- enough success to land him in the top 10 for AL Rookie of the Year.  You can't blame those who thought Manoah could have a sophomore slump in 2022 as we've seen it happen so many times before.  But those concerns have long been put to bed as Manoah has done his 2021 campaign one better this season.  In 20 starts, the big 24-year-old RHP has an 11-5 record with a 2.43 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.  And he was rewarded with his first -- probably not his last -- All Star Game appearance.  The only blemish that continues to be a blight on his stat sheet is the fact that Manoah hits a lot of batters (he is leading the league for the second straight season in the category).  Start no. 21 will come against a Twins club that he has yet to face this season -- but that he beat last September in his second-to-last start of 2021.  The Blue Jays are 31-15 in their last 46 meetings with the Twins here in Minneapolis.  Take Toronto.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The Brewers did not add a major arm to their rotation at the MLB trading deadline.  However, they will be welcoming a very good one back to the mound tonight.  In this second game of the series with the Pirates, RHP Freddy Peralta will get his first start since his loss to the Nationals back on May 22.  Following that shortened outing, the Crew placed the 26-year-old ace on the IL with a lat strain.  Peralta returns tonight in what will probably be a fairly short outing but no doubt his presence on the mound will be a big boost to the team which continues to stay just barely ahead of the Cards in the NL Central.  Despite a higher-than-expected ERA, Peralta was cruising before the injury with a 3-2 record in eight starts and 50 strikeouts and 13 walks in just under 39 innings (an 11.6 strikeout rate).  In his last three starts against the Bucs, Peralta is 1-0 with a 1.00 ERA (two runs in 18 innings) and the Brewers are 3-0 in those games.  Milwaukee is also 4-1 in Peralta's last five starts, and 7-2 in its last nine, overall.  Take the Brew Crew.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners.  The Mariners landed a big fish (no pun intended) when they traded with the Reds for RHP Luis Castillo a few days ago.  The 29-year-old will draw his first starting assignment with his new team this afternoon and it's not an easy task to say the least.  Castillo will face the Yankees for the third time in his career and he will go opposite one of the game's best in veteran RH Gerrit Cole.  Cole is having another outstanding season, going 9-3 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 21 starts covering 125 1/3 innings.  In his two starts vs. the Yanks, Castillo is 0-1 and both of those starts were here at Yankee Stadium.  Meanwhile, in nine career starts vs. the Mariners, Cole is 6-2 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.71 WHIP with 81 strikeouts and eight walks in 63 innings.  Castillo is hoping he can break his road hex now that he's with Seattle as, over the last three years, the Reds went 9-22 in his starts away from Cincy.  Despite their win on Tuesday, the M's are still just 4-13 in their last 17 here in the Bronx.  Take the Yanks.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros minus 1.5 runs over the Boston Red Sox.  When Cristian Javier takes the mound for the Astros tonight, he may be throwing the ball to another Christian (this one with an 'h' in his name).  On Monday, the Astros made a deal with the team they'll be facing tonight for veteran catcher Christian Vazquez.  The move isn't as much for what Vazquez can do at the plate but rather what he can do behind it.  Vazquez will add much-needed experience calling games for Houston's solid rotation -- both the veterans and youngsters.  Javier falls into the latter category and the 25-year-old RH is likely to get a boost from having Vazquez as his backstop.  The 'Stros also improved their lineup with the addition of veteran 1B/DH Trey Mancini from the Orioles.  One reason I like the Astros tonight is that the Red Sox hitters haven't faced Javier before, and I've always believed that favored the pitcher.  Additionally, the Astros are 59-27 this season as a favorite, and 13-4 in Javier's17 starts as a home favorite (including 6-0 when priced from -175 to -250).  Take Houston minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners.  The Yankees fell, 8-6, here at home to the Royals yesterday.  And that dropped New York's record to 8-11 its last 19.  Of course, the Yankees' glass is more than half-full, as it still has the 2nd best record in baseball.  Tonight, New York will welcome Scott Servais' Mariners to the Bronx.  Unfortunately for the Mariners, its All-Star rookie Julio Rodriguez sustained a wrist injury two days ago, which landed him on the Injured List.  And, to make matters worse, Seattle's top hitter, Ty France, also missed Sunday's contest, and is questionable to play in this series.  New York will start RH Domingo German, while southpaw Marco Gonzales will toe the rubber for the road team.  The Yankees have throttled lefties at home all season, as they're a perfect 15-0, and have won those 15 games by an average of 3.4 runs per game!  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Minnesota Twins.  The Twins won, 7-4, last night, but suffered yet another injury when Alex Kirilloff (who was replacing the injured Max Kepler in right field) exited with a wrist injury.  So, Mark Contreras (.111 batting avg.), who was recalled from the minors, finished the game in right field.  This certainly is not good news for the Twins, who also had to place Miguel Sano on the 10-day injured list this week.  But the Padres won't be shedding any tears for the Twins, as they've been without their star right fielder (Fernado Tatis, Jr.) for the season's first four months.  San Diego has survived, though, and is in a good position to reach the post-season.  But if the Padres are going to make any noise in the playoffs, they'll need today's starter, Sean Manaea, to step it up.  When the Padres acquired Manaea from the Oakland A's just prior to the start of the season, they were hoping that the veteran LH would form a potent 1-2-3 punch with fellow starters Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove.  But things haven't exactly worked out as planned for Manaea and the Pads so far.  In 18 starts covering 104 innings, Manaea is just 5-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.  The good news is that there's still two months left of the season for the 30-year-old to turn things around.  And if he wanted to hand-pick an opponent to get things started, Manaea might very well choose the Twins.  In four starts against Minnesota, covering 23 innings, Manaea is 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA.  And his mound opponent this afternoon -- Dylan Bundy -- not only has an 11.25 career ERA vs. the Padres, but his teams are a horrid 1-6 in his last seven interleague starts.  The Twins are also 0-4 in their last four inter-league games vs. teams with a left-handed starter, while the Padres are 13-6 in their last 19 inter-league games vs. teams with a winning record.  Finally, Manaea's teams are 16-3 in his 19 career starts against AL Central opponents, and 45-28 (+13.3 net games) in his home starts in his career.  Take the Padres.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays minus 1.5 runs over the Detroit Tigers.  There are certainly plenty of players you can point the finger at for the lower-than-expected performance of the Blue Jays to date.  But Ross Stripling isn't one of them.  The 32-year-old RHP has done everything you would expect a #5 starter to do -- and then some.  In 22 games -- including 14 starts -- Stripling is 5-3 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, with a 4.13 K:BB ratio.  But Stripling's numbers are even more impressive when you look what he's done only when he's been in the starting role.  In his 14 starts, Stripling is 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP -- far above what you'd expect from the guy at the bottom of your rotation.  He'll get the second start of his career against the Tigers this afternoon, and Stripling can only hope that this one goes as well as the first one.  Back on June 12, Stripling threw six innings of near-perfect ball in Detroit and came away with an easy 6-0 Jays victory.  Despite their win here last night, the Tigers are still just 2-12 in their last 14 games vs. the AL East.  The Blue Jays have won eight of their last 12 games by 2+ runs, while Detroit has lost 12 of its last 18 games by 2+ runs.  Take Toronto minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros.  Seattle had won 14 straight games before getting swept last week in a home 3-game series.  Then, last night, the Astros won their fourth straight vs. the Mariners here, in Houston.  The 2nd game of this 4-game series is tonight, and will match up two former Cy Young Award winners:  Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray.  Verlander is having a Cy Young-worthy season, as he's 13-3 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.  Understandably, he's been installed as a big favorite tonight.  But Robbie and the Mariners are a live underdog.  Indeed, Seattle is 28-28 (+20.7 net games) as an underdog of +150 (or more), while it's 5-3 as an underdog this season with Ray on the hill.  And it's also 45-32 (+15.1 net games) vs. righties this season (compared to 9-14, minus 5.1 net games, vs lefties).  Take Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:05 pm our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Kansas City Royals.  It was a short subway series -- only two games -- but the kids from Queens can rightfully say -- at least for now -- that they are the kings of New York baseball.  The Yankees' reward is a trip back to the Bronx to face the lowly Royals for four games.  Jamison Taillon will get things started for the home team tonight.  Despite a 10-2 record in the first half of the season, the 30-year-old RHP didn't find himself in the All Star Game last week (it would have been the first in his career).  So you can't blame Taillon if he has a bit of a chip on his shoulder.  And what better way to get it off than a start against a bad Royals club which he has dominated in his career.  In three career starts vs. Kansas City covering 19 1/3 innings (two with the Yanks), Taillon is 1-0 with a ridiculous 0.47 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.  And his teams are 3-0 in those games.  The Yankees have only lost four of Taillon's 19 starts this season and the Yanks are also 57-19 in the last 76 meetings with the Royals here at Yankee Stadium.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland A's.  The Astros will look to avoid a 3-game sweep at the hands of the American League's worst team this afternoon.  Oakland took Game 2 by a 5-3 score yesterday, and will look for its sixth win in seven games.  But Oakland is a poor 9-25 as a home underdog this season; 1-8 as a home dog priced from +150 to +200; and 7-19 in its last 26 daytime home games.  Meanwhile, Houston is a super 56-24 as a favorite, including 27-12 on the road.  And it's 6-0 with Christian Javier on the hill, when priced from -175 to -250.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over the Washington Nationals.  We didn't see Andrew Heaney in a Dodgers uniform for very long, but what we saw looked pretty darn good.  The 31-year-old former Marlin-Angel-Yankee made two starts for the Dodgers before going on the 10-day IL with shoulder soreness.  Then he came back and made a return start but immediately went back on the IL on June 24 -- again for his shoulder -- and Heaney hasn't made an appearance since.  But in those three starts, Heaney went 1-0 with a 0.59 ERA with 23 strikeouts and four walks in 15 1/3 innings.  He's finally ready to pitch again and no doubt the Dodgers look forward to having the veteran LH back in their rotation -- (they should also be getting Dustin May back from his shoulder surgery soon).  Heaney must certainly be looking forward to contributing to his team's playoff push as he has never pitched in the post-season despite being in the league for eight seasons.  The Nats are 1-10 in Patrick Corbin's last 11 starts vs. teams with a winning record, while his ERA over his last three starts is a woeful 7.87.  Take the Dodgers minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Detroit Tigers.  Mike Clevinger might be the most forgotten starter in the Majors.  And it's not because he's old and past his prime (Clevinger is 31).  In his last three full seasons with the Guardians (2017-2019), the veteran RH went 38-18 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 513 strikeouts in 447 2/3 innings.  Then COVID hit, followed by a series of injuries that culminated in a torn elbow ligament after he was traded to San Diego.  So, the result is that we've hardly seen Clevinger since 2019.  But he's back in 2022 and putting up some sneaky good numbers with the Padres.  The record doesn't jump out at you (2-3) but the rest of Clevinger's stats have picked up where he left off in 2019 in Cleveland.  In 10 games -- nine starts -- Clevinger has a 3.50 ERA and he has allowed just 38 hits in his 46 1/3 innings with 48 strikeouts and only 15 walks (a 1.14 WHIP).  And he's done his best work on the road, where his ERA is 3.00, and his WHIP is 0.79.  He's had plenty of experience vs. the Tigers and he's dominated, going 8-2 with a 1.65 ERA in 12 games (11 starts) covering just over 65 innings.  Last night, Detroit erupted for 12 runs, and sent Sean Manaea to the showers after 3 1/3 innings.  That raised Detroit's record this season to a slightly profitable 13-15 (but +1.0 net games) vs. southpaws.  However, against righty starters, Detroit is a wallet-breaking 26-43 (minus 8.8 net games) this season.  Take the Padres.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Baltimore Orioles.  With yesterday's loss (and the Dodgers' 4-2 win), New York's lead over the Dodgers for the top record in the Majors is just a half-game.  And the Yankees' 4-8 record over their last 12 games is their worst stretch of baseball this season.  New York's once-vaunted pitching staff has been the culprit.  Over the last 12 games, the Yankees have given up 64 runs.  And in only three of those 12 games, did they allow 3 runs or less.  In contrast, in New York's 12 games prior to this current stretch, they went 9-3, and allowed 3 runs or less in 7 of those 12 games.  Southpaw Nestor Cortes will look to right the ship for the Pinstripes, and he's been largely effective this season.  He's 7-3, with a 2.63 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.  His last start was solid (7 IP, 1 Run, 4 Hits, 4 Strikeouts), while his lone start vs. Baltimore this year was exceptional (5 IP, 0 Runs, 3 Hits, 12 Strikeouts).  Overall, Cortes has made three career starts vs. the Birds, and all three were dominant (17 IP, 2 Runs, 10 Hits, 30 Strikeouts).  The Orioles will counter with Dean Kremer, who will be making his first start this season vs. New York, and his 6th in his career.  In his 3 starts last season vs. New York, he allowed 11 runs over 12 1/3 innings, with 20 Hits, 4 Walks, and 13 strikeouts (8.02 ERA; 1.94 WHIP).  Baltimore is an awful 1-9 (minus 7.2 net games) with Kremer, when installed as an underdog of +150 (or more), while the Yankees are 13-5 (+4.6 net games) their last 18 with Cortes when favored -150 (or higher).  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers.  Joe Ryan will get the start for the Twins, who lead the American League Central division by 1.5 games over the Cleveland Guardians.  Ryan has had a solid season, with a 2.99 ERA and 6-3 record, and has been installed as a road favorite today.  That bodes well, as the Twins have won eight of Ryan's 10 starts this season when favored (compared to just one of four when installed as an underdog).  Ryan will face Michael Pineda (the 2nd time this season these pitchers have matched up), and the Twins hit Pineda hard in that previous game (a 5-0 Twins victory).  Pineda gave up 3 home runs and 4 runs over five innings.  Ryan, though, had his best game of the season, as he threw 7 scoreless innings, while giving up just 1 hit, and striking out 9.  Both teams come into this game off a loss.  Minnesota, though, is 26-18 (+8.4 net games) off a loss, while the Tigers are a wallet-busting 20-37 (minus 11.3 net games) off a loss.  Take the Twins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners.  The Mariners come into the second half of the season on a 14-game win streak -- one behind the franchise record they set in 2001 when they went on to win 116 games.  Keeping the streak going as we head into late July will prove difficult as Seattle opens with arguably the best team in the League right now -- and one that has a double-digit lead on them in the AL West.  The Astros' record may not quite match that of the Yankees, but they began the second half with a double header sweep of New York yesterday.  RHP Jose Urquidy will start the first game of this three game series for Houston.  The 27-year-old is 8-4 with a 4.09 ERA in 17 starts covering just under 95 innings.  Veteran southpaw Marco Gonzales will go for the Mariners.  Despite the Mariners success this season and a 3.50 ERA in 18 starts, Gonzales has a league leading nine losses coming into tonight.  The Mariners are also 3-6 in Gonzales' last nine starts, while the Astros are 42-18 in the last 60 meetings with the Mariners.  Take Houston.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Colorado Rockies.   The Brewers and Rockies have mirror opposite records.  Milwaukee's 50-43, while Colorado is 43-50.  The Brewers will go with last year's Cy Young Award winner, Corbin Burnes, while Antonio Senzatela will be on the hill for Colorado.  Burnes is following up last year's campaign with another great season (and actually has better numbers this year).  He's made 18 starts, and has a 2.14 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP.  And his last three starts have seen him give up just 2 runs in 20 1/3 innings, with 25 strikeouts and 8 hits (0.89 ERA; 0.78 WHIP).  In contrast, Senzatela has an ERA of 4.95 with a 1.80 WHIP.  And, lest you think that's due to his pitching half his games at Coors Field, consider that his ROAD ERA is actually much worse than his home numbers this season.  On the road, Senzatela has a 6.86 ERA, with a 1.83 WHIP.  And the Rockies have dropped seven of his last eight games, overall.  Finally, Colorado is an awful 22-58 (minus 26.4 net games) on the road vs. righties.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Diego Padres.  The Mets had a great first half of the season, as they come into tonight's game with a 58-35 record -- good enough for the #2 spot in the National League behind the Dodgers.  Ace Max Scherzer will get the start for New York, and he's a perfect 3-0 in his last three starts vs the Padres (20 1/3 innings, 3 runs, 11 hits, 18 strikeouts).  Even better:  when favored -150 (or more), his teams have gone 162-69 (+24.4 net games).  New York lost last Sunday to the Cubs, 3-2.  But the Mets are an awesome 26-8 off a loss this season, and 45-20 (+15.9 net games) as a favorite.  Meanwhile, Darvish's teams have gone 35-44 (minus 21.5 net games) in his nighttime road starts.  Take the Mets.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees.  Is there a better way to start the second half of the season than a double-header between the two best teams in the American League?  Game 1 will feature a starter for the home team who was probably happy to see the All-Star Break.  RHP Cristian Javier finished the first half with a couple of clunkers to lower his record to 6-5.  But the 25-year-old would still have to consider his 2022 season a success so far.  In 17 appearances -- 13 starts -- covering just over 78 innings, Javier posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with a 12.9 strikeout rate and 3.73 K:BB ratio (those last two numbers are career bests).  And Javier has done by far his best work at home this season as in nine games -- seven starts -- here at Minute Maid Park he is 4-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.86 WHIP vs. 2-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in eight games on the road.  The 'Stros are one of the few teams who have been able to handle the Yanks in 2022, going 3-2 in five games against them so far this season.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants.  With a win today, the Brewers can finish the first half of the season right where they want to be -- in first place.  The NL Central Division figured to be a two-horse race between the Brewers and Cards and that's exactly what it is.  Milwaukee will close out the the first half by sending LH Aaron Ashby to the mound for his 12th start of the season.  The Giants will counter with RH Logan Webb.  The Giants hitters have not seen Ashby before as this will be his first appearance vs. San Francisco.  And I've always favored the unknown pitcher in these sort of matchups.  Despite the Giants win last night, the road team is still 7-3 in the last 10 meetings of these two teams.  And the Brewers are 62-37 (+18.5 net games) on the road vs. righties.  Meanwhile, the Giants are 6-13, -12.8 net games, as a home favorite priced from -125 to -175.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.