Sports Picks & Predictions

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints OVER the total.  The Saints have gone 'under' in each of their last four games (after starting the season with seven straight 'overs,' while Atlanta's previous two games have gone 'under.'  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game here.  Don't do it.  Generally speaking, teams off 4+ unders tend to go 'over' in their next game, including 58.3% since 1980 when the line was greater than 45 points and their opponent was also off an 'under.'  Take the 'over' in the Saints/Falcons game.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders to go OVER the total.  The Raiders generally go 'over' the total on the non-division road, including an 18-6-2 Over record when the line has been less than 49 points.  Likewise, the Jets have gone 18-8 Over at home in non-division games with lines less than 49 points.  Five of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone over the total, and we'll look for another high-scoring game here, as I believe the two teams will bounce back off their poor offensive performances last week.  The Jets only scored 3 vs. Miami, while Las Vegas managed just 6 at Atlanta.  But NFL games, with lines greater than 40 points, have gone over 62% of the time if the two teams combined for less than 10 points on offense their previous game.  Take the OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New Orleans.  It always pains me to go against the Saints (who I selected in the preseason to win the Super Bowl (at 10-1 odds)).  But we've got to do it this afternoon, given their recent hot streak (8 straight wins, 4 straight covers), and absence of Drew Brees on the field.  And even though New Orleans dominated Atlanta in the 2nd half of the game two weeks ago -- to pull away for a 24-9 win -- we'll grab the points with the Falcons in the rematch.  In that game, which was at New Orleans, the Falcons were a 3-point road underdog.  Now, the line is the same, even though the Falcons are the home team.  There's point spread value on the Atlanta side.  Moreover, NFL teams off 8+ wins, and 4+ covers are 0-9 ATS their last nine, and 4-16 ATS their last 20!  That doesn't bode well for the Saints on Sunday.  And the Saints also fall into negative 75-140 and 34-69 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Falcons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  I'm well aware that the Jets are a bad football team.  You don't start the season with 11 straight losses if you're not.  But I'm never averse to taking points with bad NFL teams.  However, what I'm loath to do is to lay a lot of points with bad teams.  Now, an argument can be made that the Raiders aren't a "bad" team.  After all, they have a winning record, at 6-5 on the season.  BUT they've been outscored by 27 points this season, which is not the mark of a good team.  And NFL teams with negative scoring margins are 154-235-6 ATS as favorites of 7+ points vs. opponents that didn't win their previous game.  That doesn't bode well for the Raiders this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that New York's 26-10 ATS at home, if they lost at home the previous game, including 11-3 ATS when getting more than 3 points.  Finally, since 1980, winless teams off a SU/ATS loss are 65-35 ATS (at Game 6 forward) if they were an underdog against a non-division foe.  Take the points with the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Miami (Fla).  Miami enters tonight's game on a 4-game win streak, after upsetting Virginia Tech, 25-24, in Blacksburg back on November 14.  Duke's also played just one game over the previous three weekends, but its game came last Saturday when it lost at Georgia Tech, 56-33, as a 2.5-point road favorite.  Overall, the Blue Devils are 2-7 this season, and have dropped their last two games (both SU and ATS).  We'll grab the double-digits with the Blue Devils, as ACC teams are 29-8 ATS off back to back losses when playing a conference foe at home, or on a neutral field, if that foe was off 4+ wins.  Even better:  the Hurricanes are a wallet-busting 11-32 ATS when not playing the previous week, including 0-9 ATS their last nine.  Take the points with Duke.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over Colorado.  It's true that the Buffaloes are 3-0 SU/ATS, while Arizona is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS after getting blown out at UCLA last weekend.  But we'll step in and take the winless Wildcats as a big home underdog on Saturday evening.  Indeed, over the last 41 years, it's been profitable to play against teams that were undefeated in conference play (with a 2-0 or better record), if they were playing away from home against a team which was winless in conference play (with an 0-2 or worse record).  And if our road team also was off an ATS win, while its opponent was off an ATS loss, then our system has cashed 62% since 1980.  Arizona is a solid 27-15 ATS off a loss when playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win, including 15-6 ATS at home.  Take the points with the Wildcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Stanford. Both of these teams come into this game off narrow wins last weekend.  The Huskies defeated Utah, 24-21, while Stanford got by rival California, 24-23.  Last year, the Cardinal shocked the Huskies, 23-13, as 12.5-point home underdogs.  But you know what they say about "paybacks!"  And Washington is in prime position to avenge that loss on this Saturday, as they fall into a great 59-29 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that were upset the previous season.  Stanford is a wallet-busting 0-6-2 ATS away from Palo Alto its last eight, and 0-4-1 ATS its last five when playing a foe with revenge.  Meanwhile, Washington is a fantastic 24-5 SU and 22-7 ATS when not getting 3 points vs. an opponent off a SU win, if the game was at home or on a neutral field (and 15-0 ATS if the Huskies didn't win their previous game by two touchdowns or more).  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Indiana.  The Hoosiers won their sixth straight game against the spread last Saturday, and look to move their season ATS record to 7-0 when they travel to Madison this afternoon.  Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, they lost their 1st string quarterback last week when Michael Penix Jr. suffered an ACL injury.  Thus, sophomore QB Jack Tuttle, who was 5-for-5 (for 34 yards) in relief of Penix Jr. last week, will get the start under center.  But the greater problem for Indiana today will be the fact that its opponent -- Wisconsin -- is not only a very talented team, but will be in an ornery mood off its upset loss last Saturday at Northwestern.  The Badgers are 11-6 ATS in Big 10 Conference games when they were off a loss, while Indiana's a horrid 15-30 ATS on the Big 10 road when playing a foe off a loss, including 1-11 ATS when priced from +9 to +19 points!  Finally, for technical support, consider that underdogs off a SU win, that have a point spread record of 5-0 (or better) have cashed just 33% since 1980, including just 18% vs. opponents off a SU loss.  Take Wisconsin minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Navy.  Tulsa's won its last five games since opening up with a respectable 16-7 loss at a very good Oklahoma State team.  And Tulsa's also 5-1 ATS this season, including another cover in their last game -- a 30-24 victory over Tulane.  And it's been perfect on the road, as it's 3-0 ATS this season, and 28-11 ATS away from Tulsa since 2014.  This afternoon, Tulsa's been installed as a double-digit road favorite at Navy.  Now, it's true that the Midshipmen might be the best traveler in College Football.  Dating back to 1988, they're 127-70-4 ATS.  Unfortunately for its home fans (at least for those who wager on games), Navy's burned money at home, in Annapolis.  And they've been especially poor vs. opponents off a SU/ATS win, as they've covered just 9 of 41 since 1988, including 0-17-2 ATS when priced from -4 to +14 points.  Yikes!  Take Tulsa minus the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans minus the points over South Alabama.  The Trojans are favored on the road vs. the Jaguars, notwithstanding the fact they've lost their last three games SU/ATS (including a 47-10 blowout at Appalachian St. last Saturday), while the Jaguars check in off a 38-31 upset win last week at Arkansas State.  And that's key, as NCAA road favorites have cashed 65.5% over the past 41 years off 3 SU losses, if they were playing a conference foe off a win!  But that's not the best part.  If our road favorite also failed to cover each of their 3 previous games, then our 65.5% ATS angle zooms to 90% ATS since 1980.  Throw in the fact that Troy is an awesome 10-0 ATS as favorites of -3 (or more) after losing their previous game by more than 28 points, and we have all the ammunition we need to load up on the Trojans today.  Lay it.

At 12 Noon on Saturday, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Rutgers.  The Nittany Lions got off the schneid last week when they won and covered the spread for the first time all season (after five failures), on the road in Ann Arbor.  For me, that was a big "buy signal" as, in college football, when teams open the season with 3+ ATS losses, they generally do well after their initial ATS cover when playing a team off a SU/ATS win, itself.  The Scarlet Knights also won on the road last week, as they pulled off a major upset with a 37-30 triumph in West Lafayette vs. the Purdue Boilermakers, as a 13-point underdog.  They're now 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS.  Unfortunately for Rutgers, double-digit home dogs have covered just 33.9% after pulling off an upset as a double-digit road dog.  And home dogs have also just cashed 37.1% over the last 41 seasons when they've owned both a better win percentage and ATS win percentage than their opponent.  Penn State has won the last 13 games in this series, and 12 of the 13 have been by a margin larger than the current point spread!  Indeed, the last five victories were by 25, 39, 29, 13 and 21 points.  The Nittany Lions fall into terrific 98-27 and 171-84 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road favorites off wins.  Lay the points with the Nittany Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  We played on the Spartans last week vs. Northwestern, and they rewarded us with an outright win as a 13.5-point home underdog, 29-20.  But off that major upset, we'll go against the Green and White this Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, over the last 41 years, double-digit home dogs have covered just 36% vs. foes off a win, if our home dog won outright by 7+ points as a 7-point (or greater) home dog the previous week.  Even worse:  Big 10 teams have gone 4-24 SU and 7-20-1 ATS vs. Ohio State after an upset win the previous game, including 1-9-1 ATS when getting 18+ points.  Take the Buckeyes to massacre Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Seton Hall.  The Ducks were upset in their first game by Missouri, 83-75.  But I love Dana Altman's men to bounce back tonight, as they're 12-3 ATS their last 15 off an upset loss, including 3-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  And they're also 16-4 ATS their last 20 vs. non-conference opposition.  Finally, the Ducks fall into a 74.3% ATS bounce-back system of mine which plays on certain team after being upset as a favorite in their previous game.  Take the Ducks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Kent State.  The Golden Flashes opened their season with a 90-41 blowout of Point Park.  They held the Pioneers to just 28% shooting, and outrebounded them 55-28.  But Kent now must now step up in class to face the defending (2019) national champion Cavaliers.  Virginia is 2-1 on the young season, as it sandwiched a loss to San Francisco in between victories over Towson and St. Francis.  The Cavaliers are 36-22 ATS in the regular season vs. non-conference foes, including 16-3 ATS when favored by 18+ points.  And Kent falls into a negative 82-155 ATS system of mine which goes against certain double-digit underdogs off blowout wins.  Lay the points with Virginia.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Cal Baptist Lancers minus the points over Southeastern Louisiana.  These two teams actually met here just two days ago, and the Lions came away with an 81-80 upset win, as a 9-point road underdog.  If there was a silver lining for Rick Croy's men, it's that they actually led by 14 points in the 2nd half prior to collapsing.  And off that home upset loss, we'll lay the points with Cal Baptist, as they're 7-3 ATS off a loss (including 3-0 ATS off an upset loss), while the Lions are 1-5 ATS as an underdog vs. a foe off a SU loss.  And the Lancers also fall into a super 88% ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over Niagara.  In its season opener, Syracuse defeated the Bryant Bulldogs, 85-84, which didn't enamor it to Las Vegas residents, as Syracuse was favored by 22.5 points in that game.  Still, a win is a win, and Syracuse will now welcome cross-state rival Niagara to the Carrier Dome.  The Purple Eagles haven't defeated the Orange in any of the last nine meetings, including a 71-57 loss last season.  And this will be Niagara's first game of the season.  We'll lay the points with Syracuse, as 14-point (or greater) favorites have covered 72% since 1990 after failing to cover the spread by more than 5 points, if they were now matched up against an opponent playing its first game of the season.  Even better:  Syracuse is a perfect 11-0 ATS as favorites of -4 (or more) points after failing to cover by 9+ in its previous game, while Niagara is 2-8 ATS its last 10 when getting 7+ points.  Take the Orange.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Incarnate Word.  The Cardinals rebounded off their season-opening home loss to Rice to defeat Our Lady of the Lake, 84-71.  They'll now play their first road game this season in Wyoming, which is 1-1 after getting upset by Texas Southern, 76-74, on Monday.  The Cowboys were favored in that game by 10.5 points.  But off that loss, we'll lay the double-digits with them tonight, as double-digit favorites have cashed 69% since 1990, if they were upset at home as a double-digit favorite in their previous game, and are now playing a non-conference foe off a double-digit home win.  Take the Cowboys to blow out Incarnate Word.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Tigers come home off back to back upset losses, and have been installed as double-digit favorites vs. an 0-2 Red Wolves team which also suffered an upset defeat its last time out.  We'll lay the points with Memphis at home, as home teams, off back to back upset defeats, are 180-130 ATS vs. losing teams.  And the Tigers are 36-16 ATS off 2+ losses, including 8-0-1 ATS its last nine if it was upset in its previous game.  Take Memphis minus the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Houston Baptist.  SMU comes into this game off back to back 30+ wins at home, while the Huskies check in off back to back 23+ point losses on the road.  Since 1990, NCAA teams, off back to back home wins to start the season, that have a scoring margin of +30 (or more points), have covered 70% at home vs. foes off back to back losses.  Take SMU to blow out Houston Baptist.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Baltimore was favored in the season's first meeting this year, but was upset by the Steelers, 28-24.  We'll grab the points in this rematch as, in match-ups between two teams with .500 (or better) records, underdogs of more than 4 points have cashed 71.1% when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home earlier in the season.  And the Ravens are also 21-11 ATS when installed as an underdog of +3 (or more) points, and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Ravens.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Hartford.  The Wildcats were favored by 9.5 points, but were upset, 81-73, by Virginia Tech in their last game.  But off that upset defeat, I love Jay Wright's men to come out extremely focused this afternoon, and expect them to blow out the Hawks.  Indeed, Villanova's an awesome 41-18-1 ATS off a game where they failed to cover the point spread by 4+ points, including a perfect 14-0 ATS vs. foes off a SU loss that have an ATS win percentage greater than .455.  And College Basketball teams have cashed 72.3% off an upset loss as a 9-point (or greater) favorite, if they were favored by 17+ points against an opponent off an ATS win.  Lay the points with the Wildcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  Last season, the Seahawks defeated Philly twice -- both by identical 17-9 scores -- in the regular season, and then, again, in the Wild Card round of the Playoffs.  But with double revenge, we'll step in and take the points with the home underdog tonight.  Indeed, the Eagles fall into a 28-12 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine which plays on certain revengers, at home, vs. .750 (or worse) foes.  And the Eagles also fall into a more general revenge system of mine which is 149-88 ATS since 1980 which plays on certain teams in non-division games with revenge against winning opponents.  Last week, the Seahawks had a huge divisional battle with Arizona, and emerged victorious by a 28-21 score.  But off that huge win, which moved the Seahawks to the lead in their division, I look for a letdown at Philadelphia tonight, as the Seahawks fall into a negative 6-25 ATS angle which fades certain teams off big division victories.  Take the Eagles + the generous spot.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Both of these teams have hopes of reaching the Super Bowl, though the Chiefs' are playing closer to that reality than than the Buccaneers.  Last week, Tampa lost for the 2nd time in its last three games to fall to 7-4 on the season.  The good news is that its four remaining games following this contest are all against sub-.500 ball clubs, so if the Bucs can win today, they'll stand an excellent chance to finish on a 5-game win streak, and tally 12 wins for the season.  First things first, of course, and they'll need to upset a Chiefs squad which has won its last five games.  But off its loss on Monday Night Football to the Rams, I love Tampa to rebound this afternoon.  For technical support, consider that, at Game 12 forward, winning teams have cashed 35 of 45 non-division games off a straight-up loss, if they were an underdog (or PK) at home, including 14-1 ATS if its opponent was playing back-to-back road games.  And the Buccaneers are also 10-4 ATS as a single-digit home dog, if they had a winning record, and their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the points with Tom Brady & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  New York has yet to win a game this season.  But after dropping their first 10 games, we'll grab the points with the Flyboys as a divisional home underdog.  Last week, the Jets fought hard against the Chargers in 6-point defeat, but covered the 10-point spread.  And that was New York's 2nd straight ATS win.  Of course, it hasn't hurt New York that it finally has a full complement of wide receivers, with Perriman, Mims and Crowder all on the field of late.  And QB Sam Darnold will also be back for this game.  I look for New York to make it three-in-a-row this afternoon, as NFL teams that have lost 7+ games in a row have gone 27-10-2 ATS off a point spread win when they were matched up against a division opponent, and not favored by 3+ points (and 8-0 ATS off 10+ wins, as an underdog of +6 or more).  Likewise, winless teams with an 0-4 (or worse) record have cashed 70% over the last 35 seasons vs. winning division rivals, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when priced from +6.5 to +10.5 vs. foes off an ATS loss.  Additionally, New York falls into 240-146, 298-224 and 250-153 ATS systems of mine that play on certain losing teams against winning foes.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tennessee Titans/Indianapolis Colts game.  These two teams met just two weeks ago, and the over/under line was a couple of points less, at 49, than it is for this game here.  Indianapolis won that game, 34-17, so it went over the total by 2 points.  Now, for this game, the oddsmakers have adjusted the over/under line.  I believe it's an over-adjustment, and will look for a lower-scoring game, especially since this game will be played at Indianapolis.  Indeed, the Colts have gone 'under' in 25 of 34 home division contests, including 7-0 'under' when the line was greater than 48 points.  And this game also falls into 19-0 and 57-33 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Cleveland.  The Jaguars won on Opening Day, but haven't won since, as they're currently riding a 9-game losing streak.  In an attempt to get back into the win column, coach Doug Marrone has tabbed veteran Mike Glennon to start at quarterback this afternoon.  The Jags have been installed as a 7-point home underdog against a Browns team that enters off two straight wins.  But those two wins both came at home; on the road, the Browns have only won 17 of 95 games (40-53 ATS), and they've cashed just 7 of 25 when not getting more than 3 points, including 0-6 ATS their last six.  Over the last 40 years, at Game 10 forward, underdogs of +7 (or more) points have gone 143-99 ATS if they were off back to back losses, and their opponent was off back to back wins.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over South Carolina.  The Bulldogs lost last year at home to these Gamecocks, even though the Bulldogs were favored in that game by 20.5 points.  But you know what they say about "paybacks."  And I fully expect Georgia to avenge last year's loss, as it has gone 17-0-2 ATS when playing with revenge and favored by less than 30 points.  Take Georgia to crush South Carolina.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies minus the points over LSU.  Last season, the Tigers annihilated the Aggies, 50-7.  Of course, LSU was a better team last year, as it won the national championship.  This season is a much different story, and the Tigers have been installed as a double-digit road underdog on Saturday night.  We'll fade LSU off its 27-24 win at Arkansas last week, as defending national champs have gone 0-11 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points off a conference win.  Meanwhile SEC teams off a conference win are a poor 5-15 ATS when playing away from home against a revenge-minded Texas A&M squad.  Lay the points with the Aggies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over Baylor.  We had a big play last week on Iowa State against Kansas State, and were rewarded with a 45-0 shutout win.  But we will reverse course this evening and take the Wildcats off that whitewash.  Indeed, Kansas State is 19-0 ATS vs. Big 12 Conference foes if Kansas State owned a .375 (or better) win percentage, lost its previous game by 20+ points, and was not an underdog of 7+ points in the current game.  That bodes well for the Wildcats in Waco this evening.  As does the fact that the Bears are 4-26 ATS off a conference loss, if they weren't favored by 7+ points against an opponent off a double-digit loss. 

At 4 pm, our selection is on Mississippi minus the points over Mississippi State.  The Rebels had last weekend off following back to back SU/ATS wins over Vanderbilt and South Carolina.  And that bodes well for them in this game, as rested teams, off back to back wins, in which they scored 45+ points, have gone 37-14 ATS.  Last season, the Bulldogs upset the Rebels, 21-20, which was the second straight year this rivalry game was won by the Bulldogs.  But the revenge-minded team has gone 24-14 ATS in this series, including a perfect 4-0 ATS at home when playing with double-revenge.  Take Ole Miss minus the points this afternoon

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Auburn.  Alabama's 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season, and has covered its last four.  And none of those games has been close, as the Tide has won by 17, 31, 41 and 60 points.  Today, they'll host rival Auburn, which upset them last season, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  I love Alabama to avenge that defeat, as Nick Saban's teams have gone 26-12 ATS when they were playing with revenge from a loss in a game coached by Saban (and a perfect 10-0 ATS if their foe's Win Percentage was between .701 and .999).  Take Alabama.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Pittsburgh.  Since they lost at Notre Dame three weeks ago, the Tigers have not played a game.  So, they'll have had plenty of time to rest up for this game.  We'll lay the points with the Tigers, as winning teams that won 10+ games the previous season have covered 57% of the time over the last 41 seasons off an upset loss, if they were matched up against a foe off a SU win.  Clemson is 14-7-1 ATS when it was playing with rest.  Take the Tigers minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Northwestern.  The Wildcats shocked Wisconsin, 17-7, as a touchdown underdog last Saturday.  But off that huge upset win, we'll fade Pat Fitzgerald's men as a road favorite.  For technical support, consider that conference double-digit road favorites are a woeful 38.8% the past 41 years off a home upset win, if they're playing a foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Michigan State.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over Coastal Carolina.  The Chanticleers remain undefeated, at 8-0, after last week's big win over Appalachian State (which was 6-1 entering the contest).  And they have the 9-1 Liberty Flames on deck.  So, don't be surprised if the Chanticleers get caught looking past the 2-9 Bobcats.  But they really shouldn't as Texas State has covered its last four, including an upset win last weekend over Arkansas State.  This will be the Bobcats' final home game of the season.  And NCAA teams playing their last home game generally rise to the occasion when they play great opponents, as they've covered 60% over the last 41 seasons vs. .900 (or better) foes off an ATS win.  Take Texas State + the points.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers over St. Francis (PA).  The Red Flash upset Pittsburgh, 80-70, as a 16-point road underdog on Thursday.  They return home this afternoon, and will welcome the UMBC Retrievers to DeGol Arena.  We'll play against St. Francis today, as non-ACC teams off double-digit upset wins over ACC Conference schools have had letdowns in the next game, when playing at home, or on a neutral court, and favored (or PK).  They've cashed just 14 of 50 since 1990.  Take Maryland Baltimore County.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over VMI.  The Keydets won, 90-63, at home to open their 2020 campaign.  But we'll fade them in Happy Valley this afternoon, as double-digit road underdogs have cashed just 39% off a 25-point home win to open a seasons, if they scored 85+ in that home victory.  And Big 10 teams have gone 47-17 ATS in their season openers at home when favored by 14+ points.  Take the Nittany Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Illinois State Redbirds over the Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks.  UMass Lowell upset San Francisco, 76-68, to open its season.  But the River Hawks now fall into a negative 45-85 ATS "letdown" system of mine based on that upset win.  And the River Hawks are also a poor 7-16 ATS their last 23 off an ATS win.  Take Illinois State.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Drexel.  The Panthers stubbed their toe in their home opener when they lost to St. Francis (PA), 80-70, as a 16-point home favorite.  But off that defeat, we'll play on Pitt to rebound at home on this Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, NCAA teams off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 14+ points have cashed 17 of 18 at home, or on neutral courts, if their opponent wasn't off an upset loss, itself.  Additionally, Drexel is 0-8-1 ATS its last nine away from home when priced from +4 to +12 points.  Take the Panthers minus the points over the Dragons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma St Cowboys minus the points over Texas Tech.  Last week, the Cowboys were blown out, 41-13, in Norman by their rivals, the Oklahoma Sooners.  But Okie State is back home in Stillwater today, and we'll lay the points against Texas Tech.  Since 1980, .680 (or better) home teams have covered 60.4% vs. conference foes if our home team was blown out by 20+ points on the road in their last game, and is not favored by 14+ points.  Take the Cowboys.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Kent State.  The Bulls suffered a rare conference ATS loss last week when they only won by 25, as a 31.5-point favorite.  But their victory moved their mark to 3-0 SU, so this game against Kent State (also 3-0) will go a long way toward determining the MAC Title.  The Bulls have been as good at home for their friends in Las Vegas, as any team could be, as they're 17-2 ATS their last 19, including 13-0 ATS their last 13 vs. Mid-American Conference rivals.  Take Buffalo minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Broncos are 3-0 (and scoring 50.3 ppg), while the Huskies are 0-3 (and giving up 40 ppg), so it's no surprise that Western Michigan is favored by almost three touchdowns today.  Last season, the Huskies shocked the Broncos, 17-14, as a 10-point underdog, so the Broncos will be out for revenge today.  They should get it, as NCAA teams off 3+ wins, that average at least 50 ppg on offense, have covered 61% over the last 41 years as a favorite of 34 points or less (and 73% if their opponent gives up more than 30 ppg).  Take Western Michigan minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Connecticut Huskies minus the points over Hartford.  UConn rolled in its first game, a 102-75 win over Central Connecticut St.  And they'll try to make it two-in-a-row vs. in-state rivals on this Friday.  This will be the first meeting between these schools since 2008.  We'll lay the points with UConn, as it's 14-7-1 ATS its last 22 home games.  Also, double-digit home favorites off a 25-point (or greater) win in their opener have cashed 63% vs. opponents playing their first game of the season.  Finally, Hartford falls into a negative 82-159 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams in their season opener.  Lay the points with Connecticut.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights lost 36-33 last week to the Cincinnati Bearcats, but covered as a 4-point home underdog.  They're now favored by double-digits on the road in their final game of the regular season, and I expect a letdown this afternoon against a South Florida team playing its final home game of the season.  Indeed, teams playing their final regular season game of the season on the road, off a straight-up loss in their previous game, have been terrible as big favorites, cashing just 23 of 64 when laying more than 10 points against an opponent playing its final home game of the season.  And the Knights also fall into a negative 19-52 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off SU home losses.  Finally, the Bulls have covered 18 of 24 as an underdog of +9 (or more) points off an ATS defeat, including 5-0 ATS vs. .667 (or worse) opponents.  Take South Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Notre Dame.  The Heels are lighting up the scoreboard this season.  UNC has scored 156 points over the last three weeks, average 43.1 ppg for the season (against foes that give up 31.2), and get 7.7 yards per play (against foes that allow 6.0 ypp).  They've won all four home games this season (3-1 ATS), and are 10-4 ATS their last 14 at Kenan Memorial Stadium.  Even better:  when installed as a home dog of +5 or more points, North Carolina's a superb 15-4-1 ATS its last 20, including a perfect 9-0 ATS vs. ACC Conference foes when priced from +5 to +11. I won't fade those numbers.  Nor will I fade a home underdog off back to back wins which scored 100+ points over those two games.  Since 1980, such teams have covered 61.2% of the time.  Take North Carolina to roll at home.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Boise State.  The Cougars were without their star player -- Caleb Mills -- on Wednesday, yet didn't need him in an 89-45 blowout of Lamar.  The good news is that he'll be back on the court this afternoon.  We'll take the Cougars minus the points, as they fall into a 93-33 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off double-digit wins.  And Houston's also 31-13 ATS at home off a double-digit home win.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Iowa.  Last week, Nebraska turned in a horrid performance, as it lost 41-23, as a 17-point home favorite.  But off that debacle, we will step in and grab the double-digits with Scott Frost's men.  It's true that Iowa's off 3 SU/ATS wins, but teams off back to back wins have cashed just 39% since 1980 when matched up against a conference foe off an upset loss, if that foe failed to cover by 31+ points in its previous game.  And if our 'play-against' team (here, Iowa) is favored between 10 and 15.5 points, then it has gone a wallet-busting 0-15 ATS.  Take Nebraska.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Iowa State.  The Longhorns had last week off to rest, and to prepare for this pivotal Big 12 Conference match-up.  Last year, the Cyclones snapped Texas' 3-game win streak in the series with a 23-21 win in Ames.  But the Longhorns have still won 13 of the past 15 meetings.  And Texas is a super 7-0 ATS its last seven when rested, and playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU win.  Take Texas.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over South Dakota State.  Utah State lost its first game of this Crossover Classic in Sioux Falls, SD.  But we'll take the Aggies to bounce back on Sunday, as they've cashed 70% over the last 31 seasons when they were playing back to back games away from home, and were upset in the first game, and now playing an opponent also off a loss.  They're also 10-5-1 ATS as a favorite off an upset defeat.  Take the Aggies to blow out the Jackrabbits.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos minus the points over Utah State.  Last year, Utah State handed New Mexico a 38-25 home defeat, so the Lobos will be out to avenge that loss tonight.  New Mexico was blown out by 28 points by Air Force in its last game.  But off that defeat, we'll take the Lobos to bounce back, as revenge-minded road favorites of less than 7 points (or PK) have gone 77-43 ATS off a loss by more than 11 points.  Even better:  Utah State is 0-4 SU/ATS on the season, and has failed to cover by an average of 12.62 ppg.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Dallas.  Last week, we played on the Cowboys as our NFL Game of the Month, and were rewarded with an upset win over the Minnesota Vikings.  But we'll switch gears, and go against Dallas today.  The Cowboys and Redskins, er, Football Team, have had a heated rivalry for decades.  And it's been profitable to take the underdog in this series, as the dog has gone 49-24-1 ATS.  Even better:  if the favorite (here, Dallas) was coming off a straight-up win, then the underdog has gone 31-10-1 ATS, 75.6%.  Additionally, teams with horrible defenses (like Dallas (31.8 ppg)) that give up more than 30.25 ppg have covered just 24 of 75 home games off a straight-up win.  Take the Redskins + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over Towson.  Both of these teams come into this afternoon's game off a loss yesterday at the Mohegan Sun Bubbleville Tournament.  Towson was blown out by 35 points by Virginia, while the Dons were surprised, 76-68, by the UMass-Lowell River Hawks.  San Francisco was favored by double-digits in that game.  And teams that were upset in their season opener as double-digit favorites have rebounded to cover 62.2% over the last 31 seasons.  Lay the points with San Francisco.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Nevada.  The Huskers are hosting this Golden Window Classic, and they got their 2020 campaign off to a great start last night with a 47-point blowout of McNeese State.  One of the things I love to do in early season college hoops is play on home teams when they host a tournament, when they're off a SU/ATS win in their home opener, and they're favored in Game 2 against an opponent which was also off a SU/ATS win the day before.  Our home teams have cashed 75% since 1990 in these games.  Lay the points with Nebraska.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Los Angeles.  Last week, the Rams had a HUGE divisional win against the Seahawks.  Seattle was atop the division at the time, with a 6-2 record.  But the Rams defeated Seattle, 23-16, as a 3.5-point home favorite.  Unfortunately for L.A., teams often suffer letdowns following a victory in division games between two strong teams, and especially when they go on the road to play a non-division foe.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, in the 2nd half of the season, .666 (or better) road underdogs of less than 5 points have covered just 18% in non-division games following a victory over a .666 (or better) division rival!  Even better, in his career, Tom Brady's teams have gone 10-1-1, 91% ATS as a single-digit favorite on Monday nights.  Lay the points with the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders upset the defending Super Bowl champs, 40-32, earlier this season at Arrowhead Stadium.  But I love KC to avenge that defeat, as defending Super Bowl champs, with a winning record, have cashed 82% over the last 41 years in the regular season when playing with revenge from a home loss earlier in the year.  And NFL favorites of more than 3 points have gone 11-0 ATS in the regular season since 2010 when playing with revenge from an earlier loss in the season as a 7-point favorite.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders to go under the total.  The Chiefs were upset at home by Las Vegas, 40-32, as a 10-point favorite back on October 11.  Needless to say, Kansas City will be strongly motivated tonight to avenge that defeat.  And, generally speaking, NFL teams that were upset earlier in the season, and gave up 28+ points in that loss, do exact revenge, as they've covered the spread 55% of the time since 1984, including 10-0 ATS their last 10.  And a primary reason that our revengers do better against the spread in the 2nd meeting is that their defense plays much better.  Indeed, our games in this situation have gone 'under' 142-99-6.  Before giving up 40 to the Raiders in the last meeting, the Chiefs had allowed just 9, 10 and 3 points to the Raiders in the three meetings previous to that (all 3 went 'under').   Finally, six of KC's last seven road games have gone 'under,' as have 23 of the Raiders' last 30 division contests.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Jets are 0-9 on the season, which will keep many bettors away from them.  But not us.  Indeed, one of the things I love to do is play on winless NFL teams, as road underdogs.  And if I can avoid going against a strong opponent, with a win percentage of .666 (or better), then that's much preferred.  Fortunately for us, the Jets aren't playing a great team on Sunday, as the Chargers have won just two games, themselves, this season.  And, dating back to 1985, winless teams, at Game 4 forward, are 92-48 ATS as road underdogs vs. sub-.666 opponents.  Take New York + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Miami.  Broncos QB Drew Lock has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the home underdog this afternoon.  Last week, Denver was blown out by the Raiders in Las Vegas, 37-12, while the Dolphins won (and covered) their 5th straight with a 29-21 victory against the Chargers.  We'll take the points with Denver, as home underdogs that gave up more than 31 points in their previous game (and failed to cover by 15+ points in that defeat) have rebounded to go 161-111 ATS vs. .363 (or better) opponents.  Even better:  the Broncos have always been a great team at home when they weren't laying a lot of points.  Indeed, dating back to 1981, Denver is a spectacular 52-24-4 ATS at home when not laying more than 2 points!  I won't fade those numbers.  Take the home underdog + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New Orleans.  This is a great spot for Atlanta, as it won't have to face Drew Brees this afternoon, after he sustained a rib fracture in his last game.  Thus, Jameis Winston will be under center for New Orleans, and it's a big drop-off from Brees to Winston.  Atlanta has played extremely well for its new head coach, Raheem Morris, including wins in both of their road games, at Minnesota (40-23) and at Carolina (25-17).  And the Falcons have now won 6 straight division road games (5-1 ATS), including a 26-9 victory here in New Orleans last season (as a 14-point underdog).  And Atlanta's 24-7 ATS as a road underdog vs. the Saints.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New England.  Last week, we played on both Houston and New England, and cashed each of them.  But, unlike New England, which won outright as a 7-point underdog vs. Baltimore, our win on Houston was most fortunate.  The Texans were a 4-point underdog, and down by 3 points with about a minute left in the game when Cleveland RB Nick Chubb scampered down the sideline for an apparent 60-yard TD run.  But instead of crossing the goal line for a 9-point Browns lead, Chubb chose to step out of bounds at the 1-yard line so the Texans could not get the ball back with 56 seconds left.  Of course it was technically a smart decision, even if Houston would have had much less than a 1% chance to score 10 points in 56 seconds.  But it was still unbelievably lucky, as not many in Chubb's shoes would have eschewed a 60-yard TD score.  Here, I don't think Houston will need such good fortune, as I believe they'll pull the upset over the Patriots as a home underdog.  One of the things I love to do when betting on the NFL is to go against road favorites in non-division games after pulling off upset wins as an underdog of +5.5 (or more) points.  These road favorites generally suffer letdowns, as they've covered just 23% over the last 41 seasons.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack minus the points over Liberty.  The Flames are 8-0 and ranked among the Top 25, but have been installed as an underdog on Tobacco Road in this non-conference affair.  This will be the 3rd ACC opponent that Liberty has faced this season, but it will be the first one which currently has a winning record.  NC State is 5-3 on the season, and it has dominated non-conference foes in Raleigh, with 16 straight wins, and 29 of their last 30 (11-6 ATS).  Even better:  at Game 8 forward, undefeated, unrested underdogs, priced from +2 to +6 points, are 0-13 SU/ATS away from home.  Lay the points with the Wolfpack.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Rutgers.  Jim Harbaugh's men have (once again) been a major disappointment this season.  After a 49-24 blowout win at Minnesota to start the season, Michigan has lost to Michigan State, Indiana and Wisconsin.  They'll try to right the ship tonight, and I believe they will, as NCAA teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have gone 67-47 ATS in conference games when favored by more than 5 points.  Last year, the Wolverines were also blown out by Wisconsin, 35-14, in the game immediately preceding the Rutgers match-up.  And Michigan bounced back off that loss to rout Rutgers, 52-0.  Same thing here.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Kansas State.  Iowa State comes into this game with an extra week off following its 38-31 victory over Baylor two weeks ago.  Kansas State, meanwhile, is on a 2-game losing streak following its 20-18 defeat at the hands of Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats won last year's meeting, in Manahattan.  But we'll take the Cyclones to avenge that defeat here, in Ames.  Iowa State is a super 13-5 ATS at home when playing with revenge, while rested Big 12 Conference home favorites have cashed 70 of 117 off a straight-up win.  Lay the points with the Cyclones.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over UCLA.  We played on the Ducks last week in Pullman, WA, and got the cash when they won, 43-29, as a 10-point favorite vs. Washington St.  On Saturday, they're back in Eugene, and will welcome the Bruins, who upset California, 34-10, as a 3.5-point home dog last Sunday.  Unfortunately for the Bruins, double-digit underdog have covered just 26% of conference road games over the last 41 seasons after a 20-point (or greater) upset win over a conference foe, if their current opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  That doesn't bode well for UCLA in this match-up.  Nor does the fact that the Bruins, themselves, are 1-9 ATS on the Pac-12 road following an upset win at home.  Meanwhile, Oregon is a stellar 73-47-2 ATS off a double-digit conference win, including 9-2 ATS vs. conference foes off an upset win.  Take the Ducks to blow out the Bruins.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Rice.  Both of these teams have had several weeks off since their last games.  Rice hasn't played since October 31, when it blew out Southern Miss, 30-6, while North Texas hasn't taken the field since October 17, when it smashed Middle Tennessee, 52-35!  We'll lay the points with North Texas, as rested Conference USA home teams have gone 81-57 ATS vs. conference foes.  Additionally, road teams have gone 34-75 ATS off a 20-point win, when matched up against an opponent off a win by more than 7 points, if our road team was not favored by 3+ points.  Take North Texas minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Illinois.  Both of the teams pulled off upsets last week:  Illinois went into Piscataway, and defeated Rutgers, 23-20, as a 5-point dog, while Nebraska upended Penn State, 30-23, here in Lincoln.  That was Illinois' first win of the season (against three losses), and they'll be hard-pressed to make it two-upsets-in-a-row on this Saturday.  Indeed, over the last 41 seasons, losing teams have gone just 34.1% ATS as a road underdog, if they won outright as a conference road underdog their previous game, and were now matched up against a conference foe off a win.  Even better:  Nebraska's a perfect 9-0 ATS when priced as a favorite of -15 to -30 points against a .500 (or worse) opponent off an upset win, while Illinois is 0-9 ATS when getting more than 15 points off an upset win.  Take Nebraska.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals to go UNDER the total.  These two teams less than four weeks ago, and the Cardinals came away with a 37-34 victory, in overtime.  And the Cardinals have now scored 30+ points in five straight games (33.2 avg.), and have gone 'over' the total in three straight.  That has contributed to this over/under being a couple points higher than it was just a few games ago!  But consider that Arizona's last three games -- that each went 'over' -- were all at home (where it averages 30.6 ppg (compared to a lower amount on the road)).  And also consider that, of Arizona's four road games this season, it has yet to face a team with a winning record!  Arizona's four road games have come against teams with a combined record of 9-29.  So, this will be a much more difficult test for the 6-3 Cardinals' offense, notwithstanding the fact that Seattle's defense is allowing 28.5 ppg at home this season.  The Seahawks should be in an angry mood on Thursday, as they're coming off back to back losses, and will be playing with revenge from that overtime game in Arizona which they led by 10 with less than seven minutes to go.  For technical support, consider that the Seahawks have gone under the total 88% of the time since 1980 when playing with revenge from an upset loss in which they gave up 28+ points (holding their opponents to an average of 13.3 ppg in those games).  And all four of Arizona's road games this season have also gone UNDER the total.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Tulane.  Both of these teams enter tonight's game on win streaks.  The Golden Hurricane have won all four of their games this season, including last week's comeback win over SMU (which we cashed).  Similarly, Tulane is on a 3-game win streak, and has covered five in a row.  But when one looks deeper within Tulane's set of games, what jumps out is that the Green Wave have won ALL FOUR of their games when they were favored (and have covered by an average of 25.6 ppg).  But in their games as an underdog, they've lost ALL THREE games (and have failed to cover by an average of 1.3 ppg).  Now, Tulane is back in the role of an underdog -- after winning and covering three straight as a favorite.  And one of the things I love to do is fade such teams that have such of a "role reversal."  Indeed, after three straight ATS wins as a favorite, teams installed as underdogs of +3 (or more) points have covered just 30 of 85 games away from home vs. conference foes.  That doesn't bode well for the Green Wave tonight.  Nor does the fact that Tulane is an awful 0-12 ATS on the road as an underdog of less than 8 points (or PK) off an ATS win.  Take Tulsa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas over the Western Michigan Broncos.  The Broncos are 2-0 SU/ATS after last week's thrilling, come-from-behind, 41-38 win in the final seconds vs. Toledo.  They're averaging 49.5 ppg and 8.01 ypp, which leads the MAC.  They'll face a staunch test tonight in Mount Pleasant, as the Chips are also 2-0 SU/ATS, and tops in MAC defense this season (18.5 ppg allowed), while allowing just 4.7 ypp.  Last week, we played on the Broncos vs. the Rockets, so we were ecstatic when they recovered the onside kick, and subsequently scored on a fake play designed to make the Rockets think they were going to down the ball to stop the clock.  Unfortunately, I think the magic will end for Western Michigan tonight.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on home underdogs (or PK) after they've gotten off to a 2-0 SU/ATS start, if they were playing with revenge against a conference foe.  Since 1980, our revengers have covered 63% of the time!  With the Chippewas, indeed, playing with revenge from a 31-15 loss to the Broncos in Kalamazoo last season, we'll take Central Michigan on this Wednesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Akron.  Last week, the Zips went into Athens, and lost, 24-10, to the Bobcats to fall to 0-2 on the season.  In Akron's first game, they were blown out, 58-13, at home by Western Michigan.  Now, the Zips will try to contain a Kent State offense which was in fine form last week when it posted 62 points in a 38-point blowout win at Bowling Green.  The Golden Flashes are now 2-0, and return home to face a Zips team against which they've covered four straight.  We'll lay the points with the Flashes, as home favorites of less than 28 points have gone 84-43 ATS in conference games after a SU/ATS conference road victory by 35+ points.  Even better:  the Zips are a horrid 1-13 ATS as an underdog of less than 27 points.  Take Kent State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Chicago.  The Vikings started this season 1-5, but have reeled off back to back wins to move their record to 3-5 on the season.  Last year, of course, Minnesota was 10-6, and qualified for the playoffs as the NFC #6 seed.  They upset New Orleans in the Wild Card round, before losing, 27-10, to San Francisco in the divisional round.  So, it was a bit of a surprise that the Vikes got 2020 off to such a poor start.  But they're trying to right their ship, and tonight's game will be critical if they're to make a push for this year's playoffs.  Last season, even though Minnesota won 10 regular season games, the Bears won both meetings.  The good news for the Vikings is that NFL single digit favorites, that owned a winning record the previous season, have gone 70-40 ATS when playing with revenge from two losses the previous season.  Even better:  NFL favorites off back to back wins, with a win percentage of .375 (or worse) have cashed 64.7% since 1983.  And winning teams (like the Bears), off 3+ losses, have cashed just 28% since 1994 if they were an underdog (or PK).  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Baltimore.  These two teams met last year in Baltimore, and the Ravens won 37-20, as a 3-point home underdog.  Now, however, it's the Ravens who are installed as the road favorite.  Last week, Baltimore upset the Colts in Indianapolis, 24-10, to move to 6-2 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Patriots struggled to defeat the winless Jets, 30-27, as a 9-point favorite, so they failed to cover the spread for the fifth time in eight tries.  Can the Ravens win (and cover) back-to-back road games?  It's not likely, as .666 (or better) teams have covered just 23 of 71 on the road off a road upset win, if they weren't getting more than 3 points, and their opponent was off a point spread loss.  Even worse, the Ravens have lost nine of 10 road games, straight-up, after pulling an upset on the road in their previous game.  And New England is 16-1 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from an upset loss, if they failed to cover the spread in their previous meeting by more than 10 points.  Finally, it's been dangerous over the years to give New England points -- even if they're not a great team.  The Patriots are 6-0 ATS their last six as home dogs of +7 (or more) points (and 11-2 ATS their last 13); and also 24-8 ATS their last 32 as a dog of 7+, regardless of the venue.  And when the Patriots have owned a win percentage of .400 (or worse), they're 26-6-1 ATS when getting more than 3 points, if they were not off an ATS win in their previous game.  Take New England + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  From an Over/Under perspective, this will be an interesting game, to the extent it features two teams going in opposite directions.  The Seahawks own the league's worst pass defense, and have gone 'over' the total in their last three games, and six of their eight on the season.  In contrast, the Rams have gone 'under' the total in five straight, and also six of their eight games.  Generally speaking, when two teams with contrasting styles like this have met over the past 41 seasons, the 'unders' have cashed more often than not.  And that's the way we will play this game, as the 'under' falls into two Totals systems of mine that are 101-40 and 21-4 since 1980, as well as a 3rd Totals system which is 55-29 since 1983.  Even better:  the Seahawks have gone 'under' in 9 straight (and 17 of 22) after scoring more than 100 points over their three previous games, including 7-0 'under' when the line was greater than 45 points.  And the Rams have gone 'under' in 7 straight (and 12 of 14) in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 4 points, if the O/U line was 50+.  Take the Rams/Seahawks UNDER the total.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Las Vegas Raiders/Denver Broncos game.  The Broncos come into this AFC West division battle off a 34-27 loss at Atlanta last Sunday.  And that was Denver's 3rd straight game that it surrendered 30+ points.  Not surprisingly, all three games sailed over the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here, especially since Las Vegas checks in off a high-scoring, 31-26 win at the Chargers last Sunday.  But consider that teams that gave up 30+ points in each of their three previous games have gone 'under' 57% of the time since 1980, including 33-18 UNDER if their opponent scored 30+ in its last game.  Even better:  AFC West division games have gone UNDER 26-14 since 2017, while Denver's gone UNDER in nine straight road games after giving up more than 92 points in their three previous games.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always..Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Buffalo.  Last week, we had a big play on the Bills, and were rewarded with a blowout win over the then-NFC Conference-leading Seahawks.  On Sunday, the 7-2 Bills will attempt to win their third straight game vs. an NFC West foe this season, but they will face a Cardinals team in an ornery mood following its home loss to the Dolphins last week.  We'll lay the points with Arizona, as NFL teams off an upset defeat, in which they failed to cover by more than 8 points, have cashed 51 of 79 vs. .687 (or better) foes off an upset win.  That bodes well for Arizona on Sunday.  As does the fact that the Cardinals are a stellar 34-9 ATS at home off a straight-up home loss, when they're not laying 6+ points.  Take Arizona minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Miami.  The Dolphins are 5-3 after back to back upset wins over the LA Rams and Arizona Cardinals.  But each of those wins were phonier than a 3-dollar bill, as Miami was outgained 471-145 by the Rams, and 442-312 by the Cardinals.  So, don't be surprised if the 2-6 Chargers knock off Miami on Sunday.  Indeed, the Chargers may be 2-6, but they've actually outyarded six of their eight opponents -- including the Broncos and Raiders (both of which they lost to) in their last two games.  This will be just the 2nd time the Dolphins have been favored this season (the first was against the 0-9 Jets), and Miami's a horrid 37-66-3 ATS at home when they weren't getting more than 3 points.  Meanwhile, the Chargers are 37-13-1 ATS on the road in the 2nd half of the season when not favored by 4+ points.  And Los Angeles also falls into 45-87 and 26-66 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams with losing records off SU/ATS losses.  Take the Chargers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns are favored by more than a field goal vs. Houston, even though Cleveland has failed to cover its last three games, and has covered just 13 of its last 42 when favored by six points or less (and just three of 22 if the Browns owned a W/L percentage of .375 or better).  It's true that the Texans are 2-6 this season, and failed to cover last Sunday at Jacksonville.  But losing teams, playing their second straight road game, have gone 282-211 ATS off a point spread loss the previous week.  Take the Texans + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers won a huge revenge game their last time out when they defeated San Francisco, 34-17.  Last season, of course, the Packers lost twice to the 49ers, including a defeat in the NFC Championship game.  Off that emotional win, I expect a bit of a letdown on Sunday, as Green Bay will be facing a Jaguars team which has lost seven straight games.  Indeed, winning teams have covered just 47 of 120 as a home favorite, after winning a revenge game on the road, if they were now matched up against a losing team off a straight-up loss (and just five of 19 when favored by more than 13 points).  Additionally, road underdogs of more than 13 points are 178-139 ATS.  Take the Jaguars + the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Wisconsin.  The natives are getting restless in Ann Arbor, as Jim Harbaugh's men have gotten annihilated the past two weekends. Last Saturday, Michigan was thrashed, 38-21, as a 3.5-point favorite, by Indiana.  And before that, the Wolverines were upset, 27-24, as a 21.5-point home favorite by their rival, Michigan State.  Those two debacles will keep a lot of bettors away from the Maize and Blue.  But not us.  Consider that NCAA home teams have cashed 67% since 1990 off back to back losses where they failed to cover by 20+ points, if they were playing a foe off a SU/ATS win! That bodes well for Michigan.  As does the fact that it's 20-11 ATS off a SU loss, if it's playing a Big 10 Conference foe with a winning ATS record.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Washington State.  The Cougars pulled off an upset last week at Oregon State, 38-28, as a 3-point road underdog.  They've now been installed as a double-digit home underdog vs. Oregon, and will look to avenge last season's 37-35 loss in Eugene.  Can the Cougars pull off two straight upsets?  It's not likely, as home underdogs of 6+ points have covered just 14 of 53 off an upset victory when matched up against a .500 (or better) foe.  Even better for Oregon:  it's 29-9-1 ATS on the road vs. .680 (or better) opponents, including a perfect 14-0 ATS its last 14 vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take Oregon minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over SMU.  The Mustangs have broken out to a 7-1 start this season, and are ranked among the Top 20.  But this will be their first game dressed up in the underdog role, as SMU was favored in each of their first eight games.  And SMU has been dreadful as a road underdog of +10 or less points (or PK), as it's 12-36 ATS its last 48!  Tulsa had last week off to rest and prepare for this game.  And rested home teams have gone 92-49 ATS off 3+ wins, if they scored 34+ points in each of those three victories.  Lay the points with Tulsa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Hawaii.  The Aztecs lost their home game last week to San Jose State, 28-17, and SDSU was favored by double-digits in that game.  That lowered the Aztecs' record to 2-1 on the season.  I love San Diego State to bounce back on Saturday, as winning teams have cashed 62.3% as a favorite since 1998 after losing by double-digits as a double-digit favorite.  Additionally, Hawaii is a woeful 12-22 ATS on the road vs. winning foes.  Lay the points with San Diego State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Arizona.  The Trojans were fortunate to win their season opener, as they scored two touchdowns in the last three minutes to narrowly defeat Arizona State, 28-27.  Off that scare, I look for USC to put this game away early, as it's 31-5 SU and 24-11-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 17 points after failing to cover its previous game by 10+ points.  And it's 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings with the Wildcats.  Take USC minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Notre Dame.  Last week, we had a huge play on the Irish + the points over Clemson, and were rewarded with an overtime, 47-40, upset victory, as a 5.5-point underdog over the previously-unbeaten Tigers.  But off that loss, we'll fade the Irish as a road favorite against 5-3 Boston College.  Indeed, at Game 7 forward, road favorites of -3 (or more) points are a wallet-busting 0-12 ATS vs. .571 (or better) foes after upsetting a previously undefeated team.  Yikes!  Even worse for Notre Dame:  it's 0-9 ATS as a favorite of -9+ points off an upset win, while Boston College is 17-7 ATS vs. foes off an upset win.  And Notre Dame has covered just 4 of 15 vs. Boston College when priced from -7 to -20 points.  Last season, the Irish blew out B.C. by 33 points, 40-7.  But Boston College is 7-0 ATS its last seven when playing with revenge from a 28-point (or worse) defeat.  Take the Eagles + the points. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over South Florida.  Last week, South Florida lost by a single point, as a 17-point road underdog at Memphis, but easily covered the point spread.  that moved South Florida's season record to 4-3 ATS.  Unfortunately for the Bulls, they're a poor 0-7 ATS their last seven when they owned a winning ATS record.  Meanwhile, Houston's a solid 32-18 ATS vs. foes with a winning ATS record, and 9-0 ATS its last nine at home, or on a neutral field vs. foes that covered the spread by 7+ points in their previous game.  Take Houston.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Stanford Cardinal minus the points over Colorado.  The Buffaloes surprised UCLA last week in their season opener, as they won 48-42, as a 7-point home underdog.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Colorado on Saturday afternoon, as teams off home upset wins to kick off a season have cashed just 34.7% over the past 41 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  With Stanford in off a 21-point SU/ATS loss to Oregon, we'll take the Cardinal on Saturday to blow out Colorado.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus the points over Georgia State.  The Mountaineers return home off back to back blowout road wins over Louisiana Monroe (31-13) and Texas State (38-17).  Unfortunately for their bettors, the Mountaineers failed to cover the large, double-digit point spreads for each game.  Once again, Appy State is favored by double-digits, and we'll lay the points on Saturday afternoon, as double-digit home favorites have covered 61% over the last 41 years after winning, but failing to cover, back to back road games.  Take the Mountaineers.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Middle Tennessee State.  This will be the Blue Raiders' first game since upsetting Rice, 40-34, in overtime three weeks ago.  That was Middle Tennessee's second victory on the season, as it also upset Florida International, 31-28, as a 6.5-point underdog.  But Marshall will be MTSU's most difficult opponent yet this year, and MTSU is a wallet-busting 0-5 SU/ATS as a conference underdog of 13+ points, as it's lost by an average of 30.8 ppg, and failed to cover by an average of 8.5 ppg.  The Herd have broken out to a spotless 6-0 record this season, and are ranked #16 in the country.  On Saturday, they'll be looking to avenge an upset loss to MTSU in Murfreesboro last season.  Marshall was favored in that game by 4.5 points, but lost 24-13.  We'll lay the points with Marshall, as revenge-minded winning teams have cashed 71% at home, as favorites of more than 4 points, if they were also a winning team the previous season, but lost by more than 7 points that season to a team that finished with a losing record.  That bodes well for the Herd today.  As does the fact that undefeated, revenge-minded teams, with a 6-0 or better record, have gone 14-1 ATS as favorites of more than 14 points!  Finally, Marshall also falls into 61-19 and 92-34 ATS systems of mine that go against certain opponents off an upset win.  Take the Herd minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Indiana.  For the first time in over 50 years, the Indiana Hoosiers are ranked among the Top 10 in the Associated Press poll.  Last week, the Hoosiers moved to 3-0 with an upset win over Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines.  This week, the Hoosiers will take to the road, and travel to East Lansing to play a 1-2 Michigan State club, which was blown out, 49-7, last week by Iowa.  We played on the Hawkeyes in that game, but will switch gears, and take the Spartans on Saturday as a home underdog.  For technical support, consider that road favorites have covered just 37% of conference games over the last 24 years off a double-digit home upset win.  Even worse for Indiana:  if our road favorite was also undefeated in conference play, then it's covered just nine of 35 games (25.7%).  Finally, the Hoosiers are a dreadful 9-20 ATS their last 29 vs. the Spartans, and 1-7 ATS their last eight as road favorites.  Take Michigan State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over East Carolina.  The 6-0 Bearcats will welcome the 1-5 Pirates to Cincinnati.  And Luke Fickell's men should be salivating at the prospect of attacking an East Carolina defense which gives up north of 37 ppg.  The Pirates have dropped their last three, including 38-21 home loss to Tulane last Saturday, as a 3.5-point home dog.  Meanwhile, Cincinnati has scored 42, 49 and 38 points in its last three games (all 28+ point blowout wins), and fall into a momentum system of mine which has cashed 82.2% over the past 25 seasons.  What we want to do is play on any NCAA team in conference games at home, or on a neutral field, if they were off three straight wins by more than 25 points, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS loss.  The Bearcats have covered 11 of 16 in this series, and will rout the Pirates on Friday night.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Central Michigan.  The Huskies lost to a revenge-minded Buffalo team last Wednesday, 49-30, as a 14.5-point home underdog, while CMU upset Ohio, as a 2.5-point home dog.  But off that upset win in their season opener, we'll fade the Chippewas tonight.  Indeed, over the last 41 years, Game 2 road favorites of less than 10 points have covered just 33% off an upset home win to kick off their season -- and just 20% of conference games.  Even better, the home team has gone 12-5-1 ATS in this series, including a perfect 5-0-1 ATS as an underdog of +8 or less points.  Finally, the Huskies are a sensational 41-15-3 ATS as an underdog in the regular season, if they did not own a winning ATS record.  Take the Huskies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Toledo.  Both of these teams had terrific starts to their 2020 Mid-American Conference campaign.  Toledo blew out Bowling Green at home, 38-3, and outgained the Falcons by 257 yards, while Western Michigan annihilated Akron on the road, 58-13, and outyarded the Zips by 228.  The Broncos are back in Kalamazoo for their home home opener, and we'll lay the points with WMU tonight.  Since 1980, unrested underdogs of less than 16 points, playing away from home, have covered just 31% vs. foes with a scoring margin of 44+ points.  And the Rockets are also a poor 3-11 ATS away from home, including 1-8 ATS vs. .500 (or better) teams.  And they're 0-8 ATS off a Mid-American Conference home win.  Take Western Michigan minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over New England.  The Patriots are on their way to their first losing season since 2000 when they went 5-11.  They're scoring just 19.42 ppg, while they're giving up 23.85, for a -4.43 average margin of victory.  Given these numbers, it's difficult to make a case for New England as a large road favorite -- even against a team as hapless as the New York Jets.  Consider that, at Game 6 forward, losing teams, favored by 8+ points, are a wallet-busting 17-37 ATS if their defense surrenders 23.67 ppg!  Even worse:  favorites of more than 3 points, with a W/L percentage less than .310, have covered just 30.2% since 1980.  And teams with a negative scoring margin that are favored by 7+ points, have gone 154-231-6 ATS vs. foes not off a straight-up win.  Indeed, we saw this particular angle win yesterday when the Houston Texans (with a negative 7.28 margin of victory) failed to cover their 7-point spread vs. Jacksonville.  The bottom line is that when it comes to bad teams, it's generally better to take points than to lay them.  Take the Jets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tampa Bay.  As faithful followers know, we've been terrific over the year on our futures plays.  Already in 2020, we've cashed the Tampa Bay Lightning at 7-1 odds, and the Los Angeles Dodgers at 4-1 odds.  Our NFL preseason pick was the New Orleans Saints (at 10-1 odds).  New Orleans did get its season off to a fine start with a 34-23 win over these Buccaneers.  But, if truth be told, they've not impressed since, as they've not won a game by 7+ points since then.  Yes, New Orleans has won four straight games coming into this Sunday Night contest, but those wins were by 6 (Lions), 3 (Chargers), 3 (Panthers) and 3 (Bears) points.  They'll now face a revenge-minded division rival, in the Buccaneers.  And that will lead many bettors over to the Tampa Bay side, especially since the Bucs are on a 3-game win streak, including a noteworthy 38-10 victory over the Green Bay Packers -- a team which beat the Saints by seven, 37-30.  But we will step in and take the points with the underdog Saints, as I feel they're due for a breakout game.  Also, Sean Payton has coached the Saints to a 56-24-3 ATS record vs. .500 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including 11-0-1 ATS their last 12 when getting more than 2 points.  I won't fade those numbers.  Take the Saints + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs and New Orleans Saints UNDER the total.  The Saints have played ALL 7 games over the total this season!  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the over in this game tonight.  But consider that, at Game 7 forward, in games with an over/under line of 47+ points, NFL teams that had gone over the total in at least 84% of their season's games, have gone UNDER the total 64.2% of the time.  Indeed, we saw this last week with the Las Vegas Raiders against Cleveland.  Going into that game, Las Vegas had gone OVER the total 5-0-1.  But it played its first under of the season last week when that game ended with just 22 points -- 25.5 points below the posted total.  I look for the Saints to also play their first under of the season tonight.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the over in the Pittsburgh/Dallas game.  The Cowboys have the league's worst defense, as it's giving up more than 33 points per game.  It's true that Dallas only gave up 23 and 25 their last two games (vs. Washington and Philadelphia), but the Steelers should do better, as their offense produces north of 30 points per game.  I also expect Dallas to do better this week than it did last week behind rookie Ben DiNucci.  For this game, Dallas coach Mike McCarthy will start either Garrett Gilbert (6th round pick, 2014) or Cooper Rush (2017), both of whom have more NFL experience than DiNucci.  So, even though the Cowboys have been moribund on offense, with just 22 points scored over their previous three games, that doesn't necessarily portend a low-scoring game today.  One thing which will help is that Dallas is back home this afternoon.  This season, the Cowboys have averaged 31.2 ppg at home, but just 15 ppg on the road.  Not surprisingly, three of the Cowboys' four home games have gone over the total (compared to one of their four road games).  And, going back further, Dallas has played 14 of its last 20 home games over the total (compared to just nine of its last 25 road games).  Additionally, home teams that scored 25 or less combined points in their three previous games, all of which went under the total, have proceeded to go over in their next game 66% of the time since 1989.  And Dallas has gone 78-50 'over' at home when the line was greater than 38 and less than 45 points, including 8-1 OVER their last nine if they were off unders in each of their three previous games.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Pittsburgh.  It's absolutely true that these two teams are going in an opposite direction.  Dallas is 2-6 straight-up, and a horrid 0-8 ATS.  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has covered five straight games, and is the NFL's lone undefeated team, at 8-0.  The Steelers have been installed as a double-digit road favorite.  And, as I've often written, one of the last things an NFL bettor should do is take a double-digit road favorite.  Certainly, if an NFL team is installed as a double-digit home underdog, then it's bad.  Really bad.  That being said, these horrible teams have been one of the most reliable bets over the last 41 years.  They're 103-78-2 ATS their last 183, including a perfect 3-0 ATS already this season.  The most recent double-digit home dog was the New York Giants, when it caught 13 points from Tampa Bay on a Monday Night game.  The Giants took Tampa down to the wire, and lost by just two, 25-23.  Previous to that was Philadelphia, which almost upset Baltimore as a 10.5-point home dog.  And the other one was Washington, which covered as a 14.5-point home dog vs. the Ravens.  The Steelers are 29-52 ATS as a non-division road favorite, including 0-8 ATS when laying more than 9.  Take Dallas + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the under in the LA Chargers/Las Vegas Raiders game.  The Raiders are 14-1 UNDER their last 15 division road games (and 62-35 UNDER their last 97).  Meanwhile, the Chargers are 79-32 UNDER their last 111 division home games, including 6-0 under their last six.  Take the UNDER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Seattle.  This is a great match-up between the 6-2 Bills and 6-1 Seahawks.  The Achilles' heel for Seattle this season is its defense.  It's giving up 28.4 ppg (against foes that score 25.1), and 6.3 yards per play.  So, it's hard for me to take Seattle in this situation, and lay points on the road to a very good team.  Indeed, really good NFL teams, with W/L percentages greater than .750, are a poor 11-30 ATS on the road if they don't own the better defense, and are laying 3 or more points.  That doesn't bode well for Seattle.  Nor does the fact that Buffalo is an awesome 51-22 ATS at home off a point spread defeat vs. foes off a straight-up win.  With Buffalo, indeed, off an ATS loss last week vs. New England, we'll take the points with the Bills on Sunday afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Minnesota.  The Lions announced that QB Matthew Stafford will be eligible to play today, after successfully completing the COVID protocols after being exposed to the virus.  That's enough for me to pull the trigger on the underdog Lions, as I want to go against Minnesota off its upset road win at Green Bay last Sunday.  Indeed, underdogs off a double-digit loss have covered 75% over the last 41 years vs. division rivals, if its foe owned a losing record, and was off an upset division win in its previous game.  Even better:  Detroit is a wallet-fattening 39-14-4 ATS on the road off a loss by more than 10 points, including a perfect 10-0 if it was getting more than 3 points vs. .350 (or worse) opponents.  Take the Lions + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.