Sports Picks & Predictions

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Baltimore Orioles.  Through his first six starts of the season, young RHP Dylan Cease looked like he might be the second coming of Lucas Giolito.  The 25-year-old went 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA, with 22 hits allowed, 40 strikeouts and 15 walks in just over 30 innings.  Those are some serious numbers.  But Cease hasn't been able to maintain it through his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA, while the 2.66 K:BB ratio he enjoyed in those first six morphed into 1.78 (16 strikeouts with nine walks).  Perhaps a start against the last place Orioles, who are currently sitting at 17-32 will be just the thing to get Cease out of his funk.  And the fact that the Baltimore lineup has never faced the young fireballer probably doesn't hurt either.  This game is in his home park -- Guaranteed Rate Field -- and Cease is 1-0 with a 2.10 ERA in five starts there so far this season (vs. 1-1 and 4.58 in four starts elsewhere).  The Sox are also a perfect 5-0 in Cease's last five starts vs. teams with a losing record.  Take Chicago.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks made a statement in Games 1 + 2, as they were able to win a nail-biter (109-107) as well as a blowout (132-98).  Certainly, the Bucks are out to avenge last year's playoff ouster at the hands of the Heat.  But before we dismiss the Heat entirely, we must note that the first two games were at Fiserv Forum, where the Bucks have gone 28-10 this season.  It's been a completely different story outside of Wisconsin, as Milwaukee is a pedestrian 20-16 on the road this year (and a wallet-breaking 14-22 ATS).  We'll take Miami to bounce back in Game 3, as the Heat are an awesome 53-24-3 ATS off back to back losses, when playing an opponent off a SU win.  Even better:  NBA underdogs of less than 6 points, off defeats by more than 32 points, have cashed 88% in the Playoffs since 1991.  Take Miami.  Good luck, a always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:05 pm, in Game 2 of the Double-Header, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays.  The Yankees will hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery this evening.  And the southpaw comes into this game off the best start of his career.  In that game, last Friday vs. the White Sox, Montgomery held the Pale Hose hitters to just four hits over seven innings.  And he struck out 11, while walking none in a 2-1 victory.  The fact that this game is at home under the lights should also benefit him, as his home ERA is 2.52 this season, while his ERA in nighttime starts is 2.12.  The Yankees have been dominant as a favorite, priced at -150 or less, as they're 32-13 their last 45.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies struck first in this series with a 112-109 upset win at Salt Lake City, on Sunday night.  And that followed an upset post-season win at Golden State in the play-in round.  But we'll take Utah to rebound in Game 2 of this series.  Indeed, the Jazz are at their best as a favorite when coming off a home loss, and playing with revenge, as they're 33-14 ATS.  Even better:  #8-seeded underdogs are a nasty 3-18-1 ATS off a playoff win (and back to back wins, overall).  And underdogs off back to back upset post-season wins are a wallet-breaking 17-34-2 ATS.  Take the Jazz minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Diego Padres.  One thing that's generally true about control pitchers is that when their control starts to go, their walk rate goes up, the K rate goes down, and bad things will happen as a result.  The latest case in point might be the Padres' Chris Paddack.  Last season we saw Paddack maintain that control with a walk rate that was under 2.0 per nine IP (12 total walks in 59 innings).  But this season, Paddack has already allowed 11 free passes in just 36 1/3 innings, resulting in that rate climbing to 2.7.  And the strikeout rate has gone down as a result.  Paddack has just two wins in his eight starts and he has struggled to go very deep in games.  He's been the beneficiary of some incredible run support in his last three but that might come to an end tonight.  The Brewers will hand the ball to Eric Lauer, who will be facing his former team tonight.  Lauer has a nice 2.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP so far this season.  Despite the win on Tuesday, San Diego is just 1-5 in the last five meetings and 2-4 in the last six at Miller Park.  Take the Crew.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Kansas City Royals.  The Royals have faded from their hot start to the season, but they are still a .500 club after last night's upset victory.  But getting above .500 tonight will be tough as KC must face the Rays again, and RHP Tyler Glasnow.  After posting a somewhat disappointing 4.08 ERA in the shortened 2020 campaign, Glasnow has turned things around this season, going 4-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 10 starts covering 62 innings.  With all of the openers that the Rays have been using lately, Glasnow is one of the few traditional starters they have left in the regular rotation and that's not likely to change.  Glasnow has a career record of 6-4 with a 3.46 ERA in 20 starts covering 106 2/3 innings here at Tropicana Field.  Despite their win last night, the Royals are just 5-14 in the last 19 meetings and 2-6 in the last eight here in St. Pete.  Take the Rays.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Atlanta.  Last night, Boston lost its second straight game, as Atlanta won, 3-1, behind veteran Charlie Morton.  Tonight, the Red Sox have the advantage on the mound, as the pitching match-up is Nick PIvetta vs. Drew Smyly.  Pivetta's teams are 9-0 in his home starts, when priced as a favorite of -150 (or less), while Atlanta's 2-7 this season in interleague games.  Take the Red Sox.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Seattle Mariners.  Oakland's rookie RHP James Kaprielian has been great so far this season.  In two starts, he's struck out 15 in just 10 2-3 innings, and allowed just 3 runs and 12 baserunners (2.53 ERA; 1.12 WHIP).  He'll match up against Seattle RHP Robert Dugger, who has a 4.15 ERA this season (but a 6.75 ERA in daytime action this season, and an 11.47 ERA in daytime action in his career).  The A's are 70-35 (+17 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, while Seattle is 46-74 its last 120 as a road underdog.  Take Oakland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  The Clippers lost Game 1 here, at home, on Saturday, 113-103, as a 6-point favorite.  But we'll take Kawhi Leonard & Co. to bounce back on Tuesday in Game #2.  Indeed, since 2020, the Clippers have been one of the best teams in the league off a loss, as they're 53-17 SU and 46-24 ATS, including 12-1 ATS off a double-digit loss when not laying more than 7 points.  Even better:  Dallas is a dreadful 0-11 ATS in the Playoffs following a SU/ATS win as an underdog (or PK) when getting more than five points from a team which owns a better W/L percentage.  Finally, the Clippers fall into 158-90, 85-35, 83-35, 94-39 and 75-21 ATS Playoff systems of mine.  Lay the points with the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Portland Trail Blazers.  The Trail Blazers have not had much playoff success over the years, as they're 68-103 ATS their last 171 including 32-53 ATS on the road.  But Portland went into Denver in Game 1 of this series, and pulled the upset, 123-109, as a 1-point dog.  We'll fade the Blazers in Game 2, as .700 (or worse) road teams up 1-0 in a playoff series are 0-9-2 ATS if matched up against a division rival, and not getting 7+ points.  Additionally, the Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS their last six, and 36-11-1 ATS their last 48 at home, off a home loss by more than 10 points, provided the Nuggets weren't getting more than 2 points in their current game.  Take the Nuggets to level this series at 1-game apiece.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Seattle Mariners.  The A's Frankie Montas became a full-time starter in 2018 and after a successful campaign that season and the year after, it seemed as though the sky would be the limit for the then-26-year-old.  But the shortened 2020 season was pretty much a disaster for Montas.  In 11 starts covering 53 innings, the RHP went 3-5 with a 5.60 ERA and that's certainly not the results the A's wanted coming off of that productive 2019 season.  The good news now is that all of Montas' numbers this season are improved from last.  In nine starts covering 47 innings, Montas is 5-3 and he has a 3.46 K:BB ratio (45 strikeouts and 13 walks).  The 4.79 ERA that he's posted is far from ideal, but after a rough April (2-2 with a 6.20 ERA in five starts), Montas has really made it count this month, going 3-1 with a sparkling 3.22 ERA in four starts covering just over 22 innings.  The A's are 13-2 (+10 games on the moneyline) in Montas' last 15 starts as a home favorite.  Take Oakland.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Colorado Rockies.  The Rockies are averaging 2.8 runs per game, and hitting .209 on the road.  So, perhaps it's no surprise they've won just two of their 19 games away from Colorado (including 0-7 when priced as an underdog of +150 or less, and 0-10 when the O/U line was less than 8 runs).  We'll play against the Rockies in the Big Apple tonight, as the pitching match-up will feature two southpaws:  Austin Gomber vs. David Peterson.  Gomber's road ERA also leaves a lot to be desired, as he's given up 24 runs (22 earned) in 31 innings (6.35 ERA).  The Rockies are 1-5 in his six road starts.  Peterson's been effective at home this season, as his ERA is 3.95, with a 1.02 WHIP.  And the Mets have won 6 of his 8 home starts, dating back to last season.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Minnesota Twins.  Shane Bieber will start for the Indians this afternoon, and he brings a super 2.70 ERA in his home starts into this contest.  Even better:  Bieber will make this start with an extra day of rest, and his teams are 19-8 (+9 games on the moneyline) in his career when he's had an extra day or two of rest.  Meanwhile, Twins' righty, Kenta Maeda, has a horrid 6.75 road ERA, with a 1.58 WHIP.  And his ERA balloons to 6.23 in his daytime starts.  Dating back to last season, the Twins have lost seven of his last nine starts, including a 7-4 loss at Cleveland less than four weeks ago.  Take the Indians.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers.  In a three game series against the visiting Yankees, the Rangers were swept and out-scored 11-4 and they didn't plate a run in the final two games.  And on Wednesday, they were no-hit by former teammate Corey Kluber.  So last night the Rangers took out their frustrations on the Astros in the first of this three-game series.  Last season, Houston RHP Lance McCullers Jr. did something he hadn't been able to do in his first four seasons in the league.  The 27-year-old made 11 starts which -- in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign -- amounted to a full season of work.  None-the-less, the veteran wants to prove he can do it under normal conditions, which means 30 starts, and he is on track to do just that.  So far, in eight starts covering 46 2/3 innings, McCullers is 3-1 with a very nice 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and he has allowed just 28 hits with 52 strikeouts.  The Astros are also 7-2 (+6 games on the moneyline) in McCullers last nine day starts.  Take Houston.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the New York Yankees.  This is a great match-up today -- at least on paper -- between the two of the top teams in the American League.  The White Sox will hand the ball to Dylan Cease, who has a 2.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over eight starts.  And his ERA in his three daytime starts is 1.80.  Cease's mound opponent this afternoon will be Gerrit Cole, who has a 2.03 ERA on the season, with a superb 0.78 WHIP.  But Cole also had his worst outing of the season earlier this week at Texas, as he gave up five runs in five innings, in a 5-2 loss.  The only good news for Cole was that he got into the record books with his 61st straight strikeout without issuing a walk.  This afternoon, Cole will attempt to bounce back against Chicago.  But his career ERA vs. the Pale Hose is 6.00.  And Cole's teams are also 2-5 his last seven (minus 6.8 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite priced from -150 to -200.  Take the White Sox as a big underdog on Saturday.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Miami Marlins.  The Marlins return home after shutting out Philadelphia, 6-0, yesterday behind Sandy Alcantara, while New York had Thursday off following its road trip to Atlanta, where it won two of the three games.  The pitching matchup tonight will feature veteran Marcus Stroman for New York, while rookie RHP Jordan Holloway will toe the rubber for the Marlins.  And although Holloway has been effective out of the pen (10 1-3 innings of scoreless ball), he's NOT been effective as a starter (0-2, 6.75 ERA, 6 2-3 innings).  That doesn't bode well for Miami tonight.  Nor does the fact that New York's won five of the last six meetings here in Miami, and has outscored Miami by an average of 2.83 rpg in those six road games.  The Marlins are 53-75 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) at home, and 51-80 inside the division.  Even worse, they're 89-120 (minus 21 games on the moneyline) off a blowout win by more than three runs, and 29-44 after allowing less than three runs.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox.  If you were to guess which starting pitchers were tied for the lead in the American League with five victories, Toronto LH Steven Matz and his 4.29 ERA in eight starts would probably not be on your list.  But despite that somewhat inflated number, Matz has been very effective this season for his team.  And it certainly doesn't hurt that the Jays have one of the best offenses in the game right now.  And given that last season was one to forget for the 29-year-old southpaw (0-5 with a 9.68 ERA in nine games -- six starts), the 4.29 number represents a huge turnaround.  The Mets traded Matz to the Jays after the 2020 season and Matz certainly has not looked back.  Start number nine will his second career outing against the Red Sox.  One of the other AL pitchers with five wins is Matz's mound opponent tonight, Boston's Nick Pivetta.  Pivetta also came over to the AL East from the NL East (Phillies), and has made two career starts vs. the Jays.  Unfortunately, his team lost both of those starts, and his career ERA is 5.40, covering 11 2/3 innings against Toronto.  Take the Blue Jays.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Pittsburgh Penguins.  Unlike last season's playoffs, when all the games were played at a neutral site, this season's games are being played at the home rinks of the various teams.  And some teams (like the New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins) have out-performed at home this season.  Indeed, the Penguins were 22-6 at home in the regular season, but just 15-13 (minus 3 games on the moneyline) on the road.  Likewise, New York is 21-7 at home this year, including a perfect 6-0 against teams that outscore their opponents by at least a half-goal.  That bodes well for New York tonight.  As does the fact that the Isles are a super 33-20 (+14 games on the money line) after scoring less than two goals in their previous game.  With the Islanders off a 2-1 loss to Pittsburgh in Game #2, we'll take the Islanders at home tonight, on Thursday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Minnesota Twins.  The White Sox are atop the Central division, with a 25-16 record, while the Twins are in the basement, with a 14-26 mark.  Chicago has been installed as a road favorite this afternoon, and that bodes well, given its 44-16 record when priced from -125 to -175.  Even better:  Lucas Giolito has led his teams to wins in 28 of 44 road games in his career (+21 games on the moneyline).  Meanwhile, the Twins are a poor 8-16 this season in afternoon games, while Matt Shoemaker's clubs have won just 12 of his 32 daytime starts.  Take the White Sox.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  It's early in the season still, but the hard-luck pitching award just might have to go the Cardinals' John Gant.  The 28-year-old has a 1.83 ERA in seven starts covering just over 34 innings, and yet Gant's record is just 2-3.  Perhaps a start against the 17-23 Pirates will help to turn Gant's fortunes around.  Pittsburgh's JT Brubaker has also put up some pretty gaudy numbers this season.  In seven starts, the 27-year-old RH is 3-2 with a 2.58 ERA in just over 38 innings.  But he already has a start against the Division-leading Cards and that one was Brubaker's worst start of the season as he allowed three runs on seven hits in just five innings.  This has been one of the most lopsided series in the National League recently as the Cardinals are 20-6 in the last 26 meetings.  And the Pirates are 23-48 in the last 71 meetings here at Busch Stadium.  The Pirates are also 1-6 (-5 games on the moneyline) in Brubaker's last seven road starts.  Take the Cardinals.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the New York Islanders.  Four of the first seven 2021 NHL playoff games have gone to OT and a fifth easily could have.  If this second game of the Pittsburgh-New York series heads there, it's likely bad news for the Pens, who lost Game 1 and need to dominate tonight before this series heads to Long Island.  The Pens could get a huge boost by the return of C Evgeni Malkin who's been battling a lower body injury, but even if the 34-year-old can't re-join his team, Pittsburgh should still have enough firepower to level this series.  Despite their victory on Sunday, the Isles are just 2-6 in the last eight meetings with the Pens and 16-35 in the last 51 here at the Igloo.  The Isles will likely get #1 goalie Semyon Varlamov back tonight, which will be welcomed, even though Ilya Sorokin performed very well in Game 1.  But I don't think that will be enough, as Pittsburgh is 17-4 (+12 games on the moneyline) in its last 21 revenging a loss vs. an opponent.  And it's 15-2 at home off a loss in its previous game.  Take the Penguins.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Toronto.  The Red Sox come into this game off a 1-run loss to the Angels, and have been installed as a road underdog tonight with Eduardo Rodriguez on the hill.  Rodriguez faced Toronto earlier this year, and got the win in a 4-2 Boston victory.  His mound opponent then, was also the same as tonight (Hyun-Jin Ryu).  Ryu gave up 4 runs over 5 innings in that game, and has a career 5.81 record vs. the Red Sox in four starts.  He's 0-3 in those four games.  Finally, Boston is 8-1 its last nine as an underdog, and 87-63 its last 150 off a loss.  Take the Red Sox.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Miami.  zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Phillies today, and he brings a 2.85 ERA and 1.02 WHIP into the contest.  He's also 8-3 vs. Miami in 15 starts, with a 1.87 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.  The Phillies are a stellar 14-2 as a home favorite priced from -125 to -175, and 25-11 after allowing 9+ runs in their previous game.  Take the Phillies.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona.  Los Angeles will hand the ball to Walker Buehler tonight.  And all Buehler has done in his last 5 starts vs. the Diamondbacks is give up just 6 earned runs over 28 2-3 innings (1.88 ERA), with 36 strikeouts and just 25 baserunners (0.87 WHIP).  Not surprisingly, the Dodgers went 4-1 in those five starts.  Buehler will face Arizona's veteran southpaw, Madison Bumgarner.  Earlier in Bumgarner's career, he was a Dodger killer, as he won 13 of his first 18 decisions.  But lately, he's struggled vs. Los Angeles, as he's won just 2 of his last 11 decisions, including 0-5 since 2018.  The Dodgers are a powerful 45-13 (+19 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, priced from -175 to -250, while the Diamondbacks are a horrible  39-130 (minus 55 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog, priced from +175 to +250.  Take Los Angeles tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Washington Capitals.  The Caps prevailed in Game one of this series in OT, but that important home victory came with a price.  Up 1-0 and seemingly in control of things, goalie Vitek Vanecek sprawled to make a save on Jake DeBrusk but instead gave up the tying goal and remained face down on the ice.  He was helped off with an obvious lower-body injury and the veteran Craig Anderson had to fill in for the Caps the rest of the game.  Although Anderson acquitted himself well the rest of the way, he will have to carry the load for the Caps tonight and maybe beyond and that's a lot to ask of a 40-year-old third string goalie who has appeared in a total of four regular season games for his team.  On the other side, Tuukka Rask was brilliant for the Bruins and he'll no doubt get the call again tonight in net for Game two.  Normally the veteran goalie in a game, Rask is seven years Anderson's junior.  Rask has a career 51-42 record with a 2.20 GAA in 93 NHL post-season starts.  Take Boston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver.  If the Trail Blazers win this game, they will avoid the dreaded play-in round, and be seeded #6 in the Western conference.  Denver also would like to win, but their benefit of securing the #3 seed rather than the #4 seed isn't as great as Portland's.  It's true that Denver won its 3rd straight game (and 2nd straight by double-digits) when it defeated Detroit, 114-103, on Friday.  But the Nuggets are a poor 3-14 ATS off back to back double-digit wins.  Meanwhile, Portland falls into a 28-6 ATS division revenge angle of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded home favorites of -6 (or more) points in the regular season.   Lay the points with the Trail Blazers.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder have lost 23 of their last 24 games, and are clearly pointing ahead toward the draft lottery.  They've lost their last five games by 21, 39, 28, 16 and 16 points.  Los Angeles still has an incentive to win this game for playoff positioning, and will also look to remove the stench from a 122-115 loss at Houston on Friday.  The Clippers are 22-7 ATS their last 29 on the road off a loss.  Take the Clippers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Cleveland.  The Cavs have not been competitive down the stretch, as they've lost 12 of 13 games, including a 15-point defeat at the hands of Washington, on Friday.  Interestingly, the Nets have dropped both meetings this season to the woeful Cavaliers.  And they lost each by 12 points!  With that as a backdrop, we'll take Brooklyn to close out their season with a big win this evening.  Brooklyn falls into a 166-98 ATS revenge angle of mine, while Cleveland is a nasty 13-31 ATS off a point spread defeat this season, and 27-48 ATS off a loss by 15+ points.  Take the Nets.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Houston.  The Rockets are 17-54 this season after upsetting the Clippers to snap a 7-game slide.  But faithful followers know I love playing against bad teams off wins.  And this is a great spot to do so, given it's Houston's final road game of the season.  The Rockets fall into a 13-57 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams in late season games, while Atlanta applies to a 120-55 ATS 'momentum' system, based on its 116-93 victory over Orlando on Thursday.  Lay the points with the Hawks.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the San Diego Padres.  San Diego has taken the first two games of this 3-game series, so it will be up to lefty Kwang-Hyun Kim to help the Redbirds avoid the sweep.  Kim has thrived in the underdog role, as the Cardinals are a sensational 7-1 with him on the hill, when dressed up as the dog.  San Diego will also turn to a southpaw this evening, as rookie Ryan (son of David) Weathers will toe the rubber for the Padres.  We'll go against the young pitcher, as St. Louis is 5-2 this season vs. lefties, while the Padres are a poor 29-37 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) vs. opposing lefty starters. 

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies won their fifth straight game on Friday, with a 1-point triumph over Sacramento.  They'll now travel to San Francisco to play a critical game (for both teams) vs. Golden State.  Because of the importance of this afternoon's game, Warriors' coach Steve Kerr rested his stars on Friday because this Sunday game would be for "all the marbles" anyway.  But the Warriors won that Friday game, 125-122.  That was the Warriors' fifth straight win and cover, and I look for them to stretch their streak to six straight this afternoon.  The Warriors fall into an 84-45 "Last Home Game" system of mine, while Memphis applies to a negative 48-76 ATS "Last Road Game" system which goes against certain teams in their final road game that are headed to the playoffs.  And Memphis is also a wallet-breaking 24-42 ATS off 5+ wins.  Take the Warriors minus the points.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Kansas City Royals.  After a red hot start, the Kansas City Royals came back down to earth and most people probably figured that they were done winning meaningful games for the season.  But here we are on Sunday afternoon with KC having won two of the first three games of this series against the mighty White Sox.  But today it will be a tall order as the Sox send out one of their brightest young stars -- and they have quite a few -- in RHP Dylan Cease.  After some uninspiring results in his first two seasons in the Majors, Cease has flourished in 2021 so far.  In seven starts, the 25-year-old is 2-2 with a 2.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and a strikeout rate of 12.5 per nine IP.  Cease still has to cut down on his free passes but if he can do that -- and it seems as though he's starting to -- he could be one of the dominant starters in the league.  Despite their taking two of three so far, including last night, the Royals are still just 4-14 in the last 18 meetings with the White Sox.  Take Chicago.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves go for a three-game sweep this afternoon after beating Milwaukee on Friday and Saturday.  Yesterday's loss dropped the Brewers record to .500 for the first time in over a month.  This afternoon it will be up to RHP Freddy Peralta to keep his team at or above the .500 mark.  It's hard to have a better start than Peralta did in his last outing as he held the Cardinals to just one hit in seven innings with eight strikeouts and one walk.  But his bullpen couldn't seal the deal and so Peralta will hope for a better outcome today against Atlanta and young RHP Huascar Ynoa.  That last start lowered Peralta's ERA down to 2.77 in seven starts covering 37 innings with a 0.95 WHIP (Peralta also has two innings of relief under his belt).  Peralta has always done by far his best work here in Milwaukee.  In 40 career games (13 starts) at Miller Park, Peralta is 12-3 with a 2.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 160 strikeouts in just under 120 innings.  Take the Brewers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Tampa Bay Rays.  One of the big questions surrounding players who opted out of playing in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic was whether they would be able to come back and be effective after a year off.  Well, Mets' veteran RHP Marcus Stroman has answered that question with an emphatic "yes I can."  Stroman's first season in New York was the second half of 2019 (after 5 1/2 with the Blue Jays) and he was solid if nothing else (4-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 11 Mets starts).  And now after a voluntary year off, the 30-year-old is having one of his best campaigns, going 2-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven starts covering just over 40 innings.  Stroman is very familiar with the Rays and Tropicana Field from his years in the AL East.  In six starts at The Trop, he is 4-1 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in just under 40 innings.  And, finally, the Mets do some of their best work recently before the sun goes down as they are 8-4 in their last 12 games during the day.  Take New York.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Charlotte.  This season finale is important to each of these two teams because of playoff positioning.  But we'll take the homestanding Wizards, who play this game with revenge from a double-digit home loss to the Hornets on March 30.  The Wizards are 51-33 ATS when playing with revenge, including 17-9 ATS this season.  Moreover, Washington won its previous game, 120-105, on Friday vs. Cleveland.  And the Wizards are 11-1 ATS this season off a double-digit win.  Lay the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Boston.  Last night, the Knicks defeated Charlotte, 118-109, in overtime, and they'll now take on the Boston Celtics, who are locked into the #7 seed after winning yesterday vs. the Timberwolves.  That win by the Celtics snapped their four-game losing streak, which was important for Brad Stevens' team.  But off that win, I expect a less intense effort by the Celtics this afternoon, given there's really nothing to play for.  New York lost by two points in the previous meeting vs. Boston, but is 15-6 ATS when playing with revenge this season.  And the Knicks also fall into 74-37 and 64-34 ATS "Last Home Game" systems of mine.  Take New York minus the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Chicago.  The Bulls were officially eliminated from the Playoffs last night when the Washington Wizards bested the Cleveland Cavaliers, 120-105.  Chicago will now travel to play the Nets, who are still locked in a battle with Milwaukee for playoff seeding.  These two teams met earlier this week in the Windy City, and the Nets won that game, 115-107.  That was, ironically, the same score of the teams' first meeting this season -- but that game was won by Chicago.  We'll take the homestanding Nets, as they fall into a 27-3, 90% ATS late season system of mine, which is based on their current win streak.  Even better:  coach Steve Nash has stated that his All-Star triumvirate of Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving will all play in this game.  And it will be the first time this troika has played together vs. the Bulls, and just the 8th time all season they all suited up for a game.  Take Brooklyn to blow out Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the St. Louis Cardinals.  Joe Musgrove has been a bit of an enigma so far this season.  The 28-year-old RHP is in his first year in San Diego after being traded from the Pirates back in January.  Despite some very dominant underlying statistics including a 3.00 ERA in seven starts with a 7.71 K:BB ratio -- and the fact that he threw the first no-hitter of the season in Texas back on April 9 -- Musgrove is just 2-4 in the W/L column.  That wouldn't be unusual if it weren't for the fact that Musgrove plays for the Padres -- a team considered to have one of the best offensive lineups in the majors this year.  Musgrove will try to even out that won-lost ledger a bit tonight with a start against the Cards.  Although they have one of the best records in the NL, the Cards' schedule has been mostly vs. NL Central teams with some NL East clubs sprinkled in.  The only West team St. Louis has faced so far is the Rockies, so this will be one of its first tests against a club with a winning record.  Take the Padres.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Toronto Blue Jays.  As a reliever, Phillies RH Vince Velasquez's season got off to a rough start.  After three straight appearances out of the bullpen, the 28-year-old had posted a 9.00 ERA and had a 9:8 K:BB ratio.  But Velasquez got a chance to start on April 23 and hasn't looked back.  In four starts, Velasquez is 1-0 with a 3.20 ERA with 21 strikeouts and eight walks -- a far cry from those relief numbers.  He tries to build on it today in start number five against the Jays -- a team against which he's had past success.  In three career starts vs. Toronto, Velasquez is 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 16 innings.  This will be the first meeting between these two this season.  However, the Phils took three of four when they met last September.  The Jays' relief pitching has been pretty good, but their starting pitching ERA so far is 4.70, which is fourth-worst in the AL.  Finally, consider that the Phils have been playing to the level of their competition lately as they are 7-0 in their last seven vs. winning teams.  Take the Phillies in the underdog role tonight.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Baltimore Orioles.  The Yankees got thumped by the Rays last night in Tampa, 9-1.  If there's a cure for the boys in pinstripes after a lopsided loss like that, it's likely a weekend series against the Orioles in Baltimore.  The Yankees are 39-12 in the 51 meetings with the O's but even more impressive is their 21-6 record in the last 27 games here at Camden Yards.  Making Baltimore's task even harder tonight is the fact that two-time Cy Young award winner RH Corey Kluber will get the start for the visitors.  Sure, the now 35-year-old's skills have eroded from when he was considered among the top three starters in baseball, but Kluber still knows how to get young players out (and the Orioles lineup is loaded with young, inexperienced players).  In eight career starts vs. Baltimore covering 56 innings, Kluber is 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 6.8 K:BB ratio.  Take the Yankees.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat over the Philadelphia 76ers.  These two teams played back-to-back games in January, and the Sixers won both meetings.  But both were in Philadelphia.  And each game was played when the Heat was playing awful basketball.  The defending Eastern conference champs got off to a 7-14 start (6-13-1 ATS), but they've been playing very good basketball since.  Indeed, over its last 48 games, Miami is 31-17 SU and 26-21-1 ATS).  This will be Miami's final home game of the season, while it will also be the 76ers' final road game.  And that set of events has triggered a very good 99-59-4 ATS "last home game" system of mine, which has gone 26-7-2 ATS since 2013, as well as a second "last home game" system which has cashed 84 of 129 since 1991.  Although both of these teams would certainly like to win tonight's game for playoff positioning, it's less important to the 76ers, as they only need to win one of their final three games to secure the conference's #1 seed.  And Philly has two very winnable home games vs. the Magic on deck.  The Heat, on the other hand, are locked in a three-way battle for home court advantage with the Hawks and Knicks.  And Miami has a difficult finishing schedule with road games at Milwaukee and Detroit on the weekend.  I look for Miami to get the win tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Utah.  After dropping seven of eight games in April, the Blazers have caught fire.  Since April 27, they've won eight of nine, including 5-1 SU/ATS on the road.  Tonight, they'll be in Salt Lake City to take on the league's #1 team, Utah.  Portland has yet to defeat Utah this season, but the Jazz are currently playing short-handed, as Donavan Mitchell and Mike Conley remain sidelined.  Portland blew out the Spurs (124-102) and Rockets (140-129) at home in their last two games -- both at home.  And that bodes well for Portland tonight, as it's 27-10 ATS on the road off back to back home wins, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS when priced from +3 to +5.5 points.  Finally, the Jazz are a wallet-breaking 5-24-1 ATS vs. double-revenging foes, if the Jazz were not favored by 7+ points.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  The Brew Crew will hand the ball to RHP Brandon Woodruff this evening.  And he's dominated the Cards in his career, with a 3-1 record, 2.45 ERA, and 1.01 WHIP.  His most recent start (Sept 26, 2020) was his best, as he struck out 10 Cardinals over eight innings, and allowed just two hits and one walk, en route to a 3-0 shutout win.  Woodruff's mound opponent will be John Gant.  Unfortunately for St. Louis, Gant has made three starts vs. the Brewers in his career, and the Cards lost all three.  His ERA vs. Milwaukee is 4.61, while his WHIP is a dreadful 1.83.  We'll take Milwaukee as a home favorite tonight, as they're 24-8 their last 32 behind Woodruff, when installed as a favorite, including 16-4 at home.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Los Angeles Angels.  Lance McCullers, Jr. will get the start for Houston tonight.  And all McCullers has done this season is throw quality starts in five of his six outings, including his previous match-up against this Angels team, on April 25.  In that game, the Houston RHP gave up just two runs in six innings, on three hits and two walks.  For his career, McCullers has a super 3.20 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 14 starts vs. the Angels, which is in line with his overall 2021 stats (3.58 ERA; 1.16 WHIP).  Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Shohei Ohtani, has a 7.72 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in three career starts vs. Houston.  But the clincher is that Los Angeles has won just 21 of 76 games vs. American League pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 (or better).  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  Memphis comes into this game off back-to-back wins over Toronto and New Orleans, and now sits just a half-game behind Golden State for the all-important #8 seed in the Play-In Round.  Likewise, Dallas is playing well, with four straight wins.  And the Mavericks also triumphed over Memphis in the first two meetings this season.  But we'll take the revenge-minded Grizzlies as a home underdog tonight, as they're 21-12 ATS as an underdog this season.  Even better:  Memphis is 21-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a win, provided Memphis was not favored by more than 2 points.  Take the Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Atlanta Braves.  Bryse Wilson will get the ball for the Braves tonight, while veteran lefty, Robbie Ray, will start for Toronto.  Interestingly, these two teams already met three times earlier this season in Dunedin, Florida - the Blue Jays' home away from home.  Toronto swept that series, three games to none, including a 13-5 blowout behind Ray (6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H) on April 30.  And, subsequent to that game, Ray went out and led his team to a 9-4 victory at Oakland (6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H).  Over his last three starts, his WHIP is a super 0.91 (18 2/3 IP, 17 H, 0 BB, 23 K).  So, Toronto will have a nice advantage on the mound tonight, as Braves' RHP Bryse Wilson brings a 6.75 ERA and 1.91 WHIP into the contest.  Ray's teams are a solid 14-8 when he's worked with an extra day or two of rest; 19-12 as a road favorite; and 22-12 in his nighttime starts.  Take the Blue Jays.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Texas Rangers.  Whatever is in the water in the San Francisco Bay, it is enabling the Giants to resurrect veteran pitchers whose careers appear to be on a serious downslide.  Witness former Orioles/Braves RHP Kevin Gausman and former Reds prospect Anthony DeSclafani, each enjoying incredible success here in San Francisco.  It seems we can also add to that list former Braves/Dodgers southpaw Alex Wood.  After being left to the MLB scrap heap following a 2018 trade by the Dodgers, Wood floundered the next two seasons with Cincinnati (2019) and then back in L.A. (2020), before becoming a free agent who failed to attract much interest.  Enter the Giants who signed him to a team-friendly one-year deal and -- all of a sudden -- Wood is flourishing again.  In four starts, the 30-year-old is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 23 innings.  And he also has a career 0.64 ERA in two starts vs. Texas.  Meanwhile, the Rangers are 48-80 (minus 15 games on the moneyline) on the road, including 0-5 in their last five inter-league road games.  And they're 1-4 in the last five meetings here in San Francisco.  Take the Giants.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over New Orleans.  The NBA's Western conference has a great race between the Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors coming down the stretch.  Both teams have lost 33 games and, as it now stands, would meet each other in the 'play-in' round should the season end today.  But there will be a significant advantage conferred to the team which finishes with the better record, as it will only have to win one of two 'play-in' games, while the team with the lesser record will have to win two 'play-in' games to advance into the conference quarterfinals.  So, these final games are ultra-important for Memphis.  We'll lay the points tonight, as the Grizzlies play with revenge from a 31-point blowout loss to New Orleans earlier in the season.  And NBA teams with a better record than their opponent, have gone 71-48-2 ATS if they were playing with revenge from a 25-point (or worse) defeat, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  With the Pelicans in off an upset win over Charlotte on Sunday, we'll fade Stan Van Gundy's men tonight.  Take Memphis.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Florida Panthers.  Both teams will be highly motivated for this final regular season game.  If Florida secures at least one point, then it will have home ice advantage over Tampa in the opening round of the playoffs.  But if the Lightning win in regulation, and earn two points, then they'll leapfrog Florida into second place, and host the Panthers for the first two playoff games.  In Saturday's game, the Panthers dominated, and won by a 5-1 score.  But off that blowout loss -- Tampa's 2nd straight defeat -- we'll take the defending Stanley Cup champs tonight.  The Lightning are a super 7-0 on the road off back to back losses, and 38-19 when playing with revenge.  And they're 28-4 after not scoring 2+ goals in their previous game.  Finally, the Panthers are 36-53 (minus 20 games on the moneyline) after winning by more than three goals in their previous game.  Take the Lightning tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over San Francisco.  The Padres (along with the Dodgers and Yankees) were expected to be among the sport's top three teams this season.  But they've all gotten off to slow starts.  In contrast, the Giants were expected to be below .500, but have sprinted out to a 20-13 record. Yesterday, San Francisco won its second straight game.  But it's 3-6 this season off back to back wins.  San Diego has yet to announce its starting pitcher, but it appears as if Chris Paddack will be activated after being out for COVID19 protocols.  If Paddack can't go, then Ryan Weathers or Dinelson Lamet would be candidates to make the start.  Paddack was pitching well before being sidelined, with a 2.94 ERA over his last three starts.  But regardless of who gets the ball for San Diego, we'll back the Padres off back to back upset losses on the road vs. a division rival.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Denver.  We played against Denver last night, and got the $$$ with the Utah Jazz, who won, 127-120, as a 4.5-point home favorite.  "Out of the frying pan, and into the fire" would certainly apply to Denver's situation tonight, as it has to go from playing the league's #1 team to a game against a rested Nets squad.  And, to make matters worse, the Nets have lost their last four games SU/ATS, so they'll be in an ornery mood tonight.  Denver is a poor 52-96-1 ATS at home when playing without rest.  And it's 0-8 ATS its last eight (and 8-29 ATS its last 37) against the Nets, if it wasn't favored by 5+ points.  Take Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Los Angeles Angels.  The defending World Series champs haven't gotten off to a good start this season.  And tonight, they'll hand the ball to their veteran southpaw, Clayton Kershaw, as he'll start on three days rest for the first time in five seasons (and first time ever in the regular season).  Of course, the reason Kershaw will be starting on such short rest is that he had his shortest start of his career this past Tuesday vs. the Cubs.  Kershaw threw just 39 pitches in one inning, and the Cubs scored four runs against him en route to a 7-1 victory.  We'll take the Dodgers to bounce back on this Saturday, as Angels starter Dylan Bundy has led his teams to victory in just one of his last five starts vs. the National League, and nine of his last 27 home starts.  Take the Dodgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Houston Astros.  Steven Matz was a second round draft pick of the Mets way back in 2009.  The New York native made his Major League debut in 2015 and proceeded to play the next six seasons in New York.  Expectations were sky high but those expectations were never realized.  So, this past January, Matz was dealt to Toronto where he has begun his second chapter with the Blue Jays.  Matz's 4.78 ERA in six starts this season is a bit misleading as he also has a 4-2 record.  And Matz has made four starts where he has allowed three earned runs or less.  Having spent all of his previous six seasons in the National League, this will be Matz's first career start vs. the Astros.  Take the Blue Jays.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Florida Panthers.  These two teams are tied in the division standings for second place, with a two-game series at Florida over the next three days to decide which of the teams will have home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  Florida got the better of Tampa Bay in the last meeting, as it won, 5-3, at Tampa on April 17.  And the Panthers are currently riding a 4-game win streak.  Still, we will play on the Lightning tonight, as they're 11-3 this season, and 38-18 their last 56 when playing with revenge.   Meanwhile, the Panthers are an awful 67-83 (minus 24 games on the moneyline) off 3+ wins.  Take Tampa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over Cincinnati.  These two pitchers are going in opposite directions -- at least when you look at the win column.  In Aaron Civale's six starts this season, the Indians have won five of the six games.  And Civale's ERA is 3.20, with a 1.04 WHIP.  In contrast, the Reds have dropped five of Luis Castillo's starts, including each of his last four.  And his ERA is an ugly 6.07, with a 1.61 WHIP.  Even worse:  dating back to last season, the Reds have lost 15 of his 21 starts (and eight of his last 10 road starts).  And, finally, Cincy is a horrid 22-44 in competitively-priced road games, when priced from -125 to +125.  Take Cleveland.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins.  The Marlins put a hurting on the Brewers at home on Friday night and now the Crew will try to get some revenge in this Saturday rematch.  RH Adrian Houser will get his seventh start of the season for Milwaukee.  After a a 2020 campaign that he would like to forget (a 1-6 record in 12 games with a 5.30 ERA), Houser has rebounded nicely this season.  In six starts covering just under 31 innings, Houser has logged a 2-3 record with a 3.52 ERA.  Miami's upset victory on Friday extended the Brew Crew's losing streak to six coming into tonight's game.  In two previous games vs. the Marlins (one start), Houser is 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with 14 strikeouts and two walks in 8 2/3 innings.  Despite their loss on Friday night, the Brewers are 4-1 in the last five meetings with the Marlins in South Florida.  And Miami is a woeful 15-28 in its last 43 games vs. NL Central opponents.  Take the Brewers.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over San Francisco.  We played on the Giants as a home underdog last night, and got the cash as the Giants got to Blake Snell early, and ended up winning 5-4.  Today, San Diego will hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, who will seek to avenge his loss to the Giants and RHP Kevin Gausman last Sunday.  We also played on the Giants and Gausman in that game last weekend, but we will switch gears and take San Diego this afternoon.  For technical support, consider that Gausman is a wallet-breaking 26-38 (minus 15 games on the moneyline) when pitching on an extra day or two of rest.  Meanwhile, Musgrove's teams have gone 8-3 when priced as a road favorite of -150 (or less).  Take the Padres to bounce back this afternoon.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points with New York.  Last week, we took the Suns at the Knicks, and were rewarded with an 8-point win, 118-110.  And we'll come right back with Phoenix in this rematch.  The Suns were upset by Atlanta, 135-103, on Wednesday.  But they're 45-14 ATS their last 59 off an upset road loss.  Take Phoenix.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento.  San Antonio dropped its fifth straight game on Wednesday, 126-94, at Utah, while the Kings won for the fourth straight time, 104-93, at Indiana.  The Spurs are in the 10th spot right now, and need to stay ahead of Sacramento and New Orleans to qualify for the play-in round.  Coming into tonight, the Spurs are 1.5 games in front of the Pelicans, and 2.5 games clear of Sacramento.  This game is the only match-up left on the schedule which pits two of the three teams, so this game will be critical in determining which of the three teams earns a post-season berth.  We'll take the Spurs minus the points, as the Silver and Black have gone 42-12 ATS as a favorite off a loss by 18+ points, if their opponent was off a point spread win in its previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over Los Angeles.  The Avalanche are in a tight battle with the Minnesota Wild for home ice advantage in the Playoffs' opening round, so they will remain focused down the stretch of this season.  Tonight, Colorado will look to bounce back off a loss to the San Jose Sharks, 3-2, on Wednesday.  But, if history is any indication, the Avs will bounce back, as they're 12-4 this season off a loss.  Los Angeles has won its last two games, but is a wallet-breaking 7-13 (minus 5 games on the moneyline) its last 20, and 28-50 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) its last 78, off a win in its previous game.  And the Kings are 11-24 (minus 9 games on the moneyline) their last 35 off a road win.  Take Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over San Diego.  Anthony DeSclafani is quietly having a solid season for San Francisco.  He's made six starts, and has compiled a 2.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.  Even better:  in his two home starts, he's yet to allow a run, and has allowed just 11 baserunners over 15 innings (0.73 WHIP).  Blake Snell has been merely pedestrian this season, as his ERA is 3.51, while his WHIP is 1.48.  On the road, those numbers take a severe hit, as his Road ERA is 7.50, and his Road WHIP is 2.33.  The Giants are 10-3 this season at home; 9-2 off a loss; and 9-6 as an underdog.  Take San Francisco.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over Tampa Bay.  Rich Hill has been ineffective this season, as his ERA is 6.40.  And, away from home, it's 12.00.  In contrast, southpaw Sean Manaea will attempt to lead the A's to victory in his sixth straight start, as the A's have won each of his last five outings, by a combined score of 30-12.  One of those victories was against this Tampa Bay team, on April 26, when Manaea gave up just 1 run over five innings.  That game lowered his career ERA vs. Tampa to 3.67.  Meanwhile, Hill's 1-2 in three starts vs. Oakland, with a 5.25 ERA.  Take the A's.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets blew out New York, 113-97, on Wednesday, for their 18th win over their last 22 games.  But off that 16-point blowout, we will fade the Nuggets tonight, as they're 16-38 ATS on the road off a win by more than 8 points.  Lay the points with the Jazz.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Dallas.  The Cavaliers come into this game on an 8-game SU/ATS losing streak, and will play the Mavericks twice this weekend (today, and Sunday).  We'll grab the points with Cleveland in this game, as rested road underdogs off a SU/ATS loss, and 7 ATS losses in a row, are a solid 88-54-3 ATS, including 29-10 ATS vs. foes playing their third game in four nights.  And that's the situation here, as the Mavericks played last night vs. Brooklyn, as well as on Tuesday, at Miami.  Take Cleveland + the points.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers.  When we last saw the Mariners on the baseball field, it was on Wednesday afternoon and they were being no-hit over nine innings by John Means in a 6-0 drubbing by the Orioles.  Means might just be the best pitcher in the AL right now and there is no John Means-caliber pitcher starting games for the Rangers currently.  It appears the M's are now using a six-man rotation and tonight it will be RH Chris Flexen taking the ball.  Far from a household name, the 26-year-old has been quietly effective this season, going 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in five starts covering 27 innings.  Most importantly, Seattle is 4-1 in Flexen's five trips to the hill.  This weekend series marks the first meetings of these two teams this year and the Mariners have dominated play between them recently.  In the last seven meetings, Seattle is 7-0 going back to last August 21.  Take the Mariners.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  Atlanta comes into tonight's game off a 3-game SU/ATS sweep of its home stand, including a blowout win last night over Phoenix.  Meanwhile, the Pacers check in off back to back SU/ATS wins.  We'll take Indiana tonight, and go against the Hawks, as unrested NBA road teams off 3 SU/ATS home wins are a poor 31% ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Pacers as a home underdog on Thursday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Dallas.  The Nets were drilled, 115-98, earlier this season by Dallas, so they will seek revenge in this rematch in Texas.  And they're 45-22 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, so that bodes well for the Nets tonight.  It's true that Brooklyn comes into this game off 3 straight losses.  But .650 (or better) road favorites have covered 57% over the last 31 years as road favorites of 3+ losses.  Take Brooklyn.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Charlotte.  The Bulls are favored on the road tonight, even though they have a worse record than Charlotte, and have dropped each of their last four games, SU/ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the home underdog Hornets.  But consider that NBA road favorites (or PK), that are off back to back SU/ATS losses, have covered the spread 67% since 1990 against .400 (or better) foes that have a better W/L record.  More good news for Chicago:  leading scorer Zach Levine (27.5 ppg) should return to action tonight.  Lay the points with Chicago.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Philadelphia.  The Brewers will hand the ball to RHP Brandon Woodruff this afternoon, and all he's done this season is go 2-0 in six starts, with a 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.  The Brewers have won five of his six starts this season, including a 6-5 win over the world champion Dodgers his last time out.  Even better:  Woodruff is 2-0 in his career vs. the Phillies with an ERA of 0.50, and a WHIP of 0.55.  In his three starts vs. the Phils, he's allowed just three hits in 18 innings, and has struck out 18.  Take Milwaukee this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Sacramento.  The Pacers were defeated, 154-141 by the Wizards on Monday, while Sacramento won last night, 103-99, in Oklahoma City.  That was Sacramento's 3rd straight win, and 8th cover (against just two ATS losses) in its last 10 games.  When these two teams met in Sacramento earlier this season, the Kings upset the Pacers, 127-122.  But I love Indiana to turn the tables tonight, as it's 22-11 its last 33 as a revenge-minded favorite.  And it's 49-24 ATS off a loss by 13+ points, if it's now matched up against a .400 (or better) foe.  Take the Pacers minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Cleveland Indians.  Brady Singer is having a nice season for the Royals, as he's made five starts, and has a 3.09 ERA in those games.  Indeed, if you take away Singer's first start of the season, in which he gave up five runs in 3 1-3 innings, then his ERA is a fantastic 1.35, with a WHIP of 1.00.  Singer's made two starts in his career (both last season) vs. Cleveland, and KC has gone 2-0 in those games, and Singer's ERA was 1.38, with an 0.61 WHIP.  Take the Royals as a big home underdog tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Minnesota Wild.  Since the end of March -- more than a month now -- the Golden Knights have turned to a goalie strategy that not many teams have employed recently in NHL.  Specifically, since March 27, Vegas has alternated between Robin Lehner and Marc-Andre Fleury for 20 games.  Other teams may want to take note, as the strategy has been successful with the Knights posting a 14-6 record during that time.  As a result, Vegas has catapulted past Colorado into first place in the West.  This is a revenge situation tonight as the Wild beat the Knights on Monday, 6-5.  That game had Lehner in net for Vegas, so we should expect to see Fleury this evening.  That win makes five in a row for the Wild over the Knights so you can be sure that Vegas wants to put a stop to the bleeding.  Allowing five goals in the last last game may be just what the doctor ordered for Vegas in this one as it is 5-0 in its last five after allowing five or more goals in its previous game, and it's 64-37 after allowing more than 3 goals in its previous game.  Meanwhile, the Wild are a dismal 13-23 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) after scoring more than three goals in each of their three previous games.  Take the Knights.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs.  The talented, young, and deep Dodgers pitching staff was dealt a blow on Saturday when young stud Dustin May felt something in his elbow and had to leave his start against the Brewers after only 1 2/3 innings.  It turned out that May will require Tommy John surgery and will now miss at least 9 months of action.  The good news is that this deep group of youngsters still boasts two uber-talented starters in LH Julio Urias and RH Walker Buehler.  Tonight it will be the righthander as Buehler gets his sixth start of the season.  The Cubs will counter with RHP Adbert Alzolay who is 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA in four starts covering just 21 innings.  The Dodgers have been very successful with Buehler pitching away from Dodger Stadium as a favorite  In Buehler's last 19 road starts as a favorite, the Dodgers have gone 14-5.  Meanwhile the Cubs are 1-4 (-3 games on the moneyline) in Alzolay's last five home starts.  Take Los Angeles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees.  The first game of this series went to the Yankees in pretty dominating fashion on Tuesday and now the 'Stros will try to even the score.  Despite a career ERA of 2.78 and 10 games now under his belt (four of them starts), RHP Luis Garcia is still searching for his first MLB victory.  Garcia gets start number four in his sixth appearance this season and the 24-year-old Venezuelan righthander will pull out all of the stops in hopes of getting that first career win.  The Yanks will go with LHP Jordan Montgomery who is 1-1 with a 4.39 ERA in just under 27 innings of action.  Montgomery goes in start number six tonight and it will be his fourth career outing vs. the Astros (all starts).  In those three previous starts vs. Houston, Montgomery has posted an 0-1 record with a 4.63 ERA in 12 1/3 innings.  This could be a very good match-up for Garcia and his team as the Astros are 64-33 (+11 games on the moneyline) in their last 97 games vs. teams with a LH starter.  Take Houston

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Miami Marlins.  The D-backs will hand the ball to Luke Weaver, while Miami will start RHP, Pablo Lopez.  Unfortunately for the Marlins, Lopez has been a big money-burner in his career, as his teams have won just 17 of his 49 starts (minus 11 games on the moneyline).  Even worse:  Lopez's ERA in his career starts vs. Arizona is 4.50.  The Diamondbacks are 6-2 this season as a road underdog priced from +125 to +175 this season, and we'll take the live underdog this evening.

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Colorado Rockies.  The Rockies will start Jon Gray on this Wednesday, while the Giants will hand the ball to Logan Webb.  Gray has had scant success vs. the Giants in his career, as he's 1-6, with an ERA of 6.16, and an ugly 1.70 WHIP.  And Gray's teams have gone 3-9 in his 12 starts vs. the Giants.  In contrast, Webb is 1-0 in three starts vs. Colorado, including a quality start  (5 IP, 3 ER) in a no-decision back on April 10 of this year.  The Giants are 28-15 their last 43 vs. losing teams (+13 games on the moneyline), and 8-1 this season in day games.  Meanwhile, Colorado is a poor 4-7 in afternoon starts.  Take San Francisco.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Baltimore Orioles.  Jorge Lopez will get the start for the Birds tonight.  Unfortunately, in his career, his teams have gone 6-14 on the road with him on the mound.  This season, his road ERA is 5.58 (and it's 7.48 overall).  Lopez will match up against Justin Dunn, who has a 3.98 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season.  He also already defeated the Orioles back on April 15, 2-1, when he threw 5 innings, and gave up just 1 run and 2 hits (with six strikeouts).  The Orioles are a horrid 3-24 their last 27 American League road games against pitchers with a WHIP below 1.30.  Take Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans over the Golden State Warriors.  Last night's loss to the Warriors may have been New Orleans' death knell, as it now trails the 8th-seeded Warriors by four games, and the 10th-seeded San Antonio Spurs by 2.5 games, with just seven to play.  Tonight, the Pelicans will get another crack at Golden State in the 2nd of this 2-game series.  And New Orleans knows it must win this home game, as it faces an extremely difficult schedule down the stretch.  After tonight, the Pels will hit the road for 5 straight games -- all against teams currently qualifying for the Playoffs.  And then New Orleans will come back home to face the Lakers to end the regular season.  We'll take New Orleans tonight as a small favorite, as they fall into a 64% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in the 2nd of a back to back set against the same opponent.  Additionally, the Warriors are 30-50 ATS their last 80 games off a SU win.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.