Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Orlando.  The Nets were upset in their last game, 118-95, by Chicago, while Orlando pulled off an upset as a double-digit underdog, 107-100, vs. Utah.  Unfortunately, for the homestanding Magic, NBA teams off upset wins as double-digit underdogs have covered just 38% in the regular season over the past 32 years at home vs. foes off upset losses.  Take Brooklyn to bounce back with a resounding win.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Montreal Canadiens over the Los Angeles Kings.  After three games against the Knights, Red Wings, and Islanders, the Canadiens will catch a bit of a break tonight, as the Kings come to Montreal after playing in Toronto last night (while the Habs are rested).  The defense has been showing up lately for the Canadiens as they held the Wings to just 22 shots on goal in their 3-0 shutout a week ago.  In their last game, they did it again, holding Vegas to just 16 shots the entire game although they somehow lost, 5-2, to the Knights.  (But that game was really 3-2 as the Knights got two empty-net tallies with time running out.)  Tonight is a revenge situation as the Kings just beat the Canadiens in Los Angeles in their last meeting on October 30.  Because this is the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Kings, Jonathan Quick will not be between the pipes tonight.  Instead, it will be 27-year-old journeyman Cal Petersen's duty.  The lack of rest is one of the key factors for tonight, as the Kings are 1-5 in their last six in the second game of a back-to-back situation. Additionally, the Canadiens are 10-4 after losing at home by more than two goals.  Take Montreal.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls + the points over the Miami-Ohio RedHawks.  Bulls QB Kyle Vantrease left their previous game following a sack, but Buffalo coach Maurice Linguist stated last Thursday that he "fully expect[s] [him] to be ready."  But if Vantrease happens to be unavailable, then the Bulls will turn to back-up Matt Myers, who started five of Buffalo's games during the 2019 season.  In their last game, the Bulls were favored by 13.5, but were stunned by Bowling Green, 56-44.  And the Falcons not only came into the game ranked #119 in the country in scoring (19.5 ppg), but they hadn't won a conference game since November 2, 2019 - a string of 12 straight MAC defeats.  But off that embarrassing loss, I expect coach Linguist to have his players' full attention this week, especially since they need to win at least 2 of their final 3 games to attain Bowl eligibility.  For technical support, consider that NCAA teams off upset home losses, as a favorite of -13 (or more) points, to conference foes with an 0-4 (or worse) conference record, have bounced back nicely in their next game to cover the spread 73.9% of the time since 1980.  Grab the points with Buffalo.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets + the points over the Lakers.  Last night, we played on the Hornets (and lost) against the Clippers, as Charlotte blew a 9-point lead with just over 7 minutes left in the game.  We'll come right back with Charlotte tonight, as NBA teams playing at Staples Center on back to back nights in the regular season have covered 59% after losing the first of two back-to-back meetings against the Clippers/Lakers.  Take Charlotte.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Miami Heat.  The Nuggets are on a 3-game ATS losing streak, which sets them up well tonight at home vs. Miami.  Denver is a powerful 22-2-1 ATS its last 25 regular season games vs. .400 (or better) foes, if Denver was off 3+ ATS losses.  Take the Nuggets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Memphis.  After going into Milwaukee, and upsetting the Bucks, the T-wolves have gone on a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak, which culminated with a 20-point loss on Saturday vs. the Clippers, after being up by 20 at one point in the game!  But Minnesota was outscored 57-27 in the 2nd half.  We'll take the T-wolves tonight + the points at Memphis, as Minny is 6-1 off back to back double-digit home losses, while the Grizzlies are a horrid 29-75 ATS vs. sub-.600 foes off losses by 18+ points.  Take Minnesota.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Rangers over the Florida Panthers.  Two teams (Florida + Carolina) without a regulation time loss on their ledger met on Saturday in South Florida and the Panthers came out on top, beating the Hurricanes by a 5-2 margin.  And they did it without their #1 goalie Sergei Bobrovsky who is still nursing an upper body injury sustained in Florida's overtime win over the Capitals on November 4.  Bobrovsky had been brilliant prior to his injury, posting a league-leading .948 saves pct. and 1.72 GAA.  Spencer Knight has filled in well for Bobrovsky, so he'll have to do it again tonight against a very good Rangers team which should be glad to be back home after a tough four-game swing out west, where they dropped their last three games.  Bobrovsky's injury is far from the only one that the Panthers are dealing with.  They will be without no fewer that four center-icemen tonight in New York City (Barkov, Bennett, Thornton, Acciari).  The Rangers are a solid 111-84 (+30.2 net games on the moneyline) off 3+ losses.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  In this young NBA season, there have been an awful lot of big blowouts, including seven by 30 (or more) points.  And one of these games occurred Friday, when Sacramento routed Charlotte, 140-110.  But 5 of the other 6 teams that lost by 30 points went on to cover the spread in their next game.  And I look for Charlotte to do the same here, as it falls into a 97-39 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout defeats.  Take the Hornets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Blackhawks over the Nashville Predators.  The Blackhawks have gotten off to a nightmarish 1-11 start this season, and lost at Winnipeg, 5-1, in their last game.  That 4-goal defeat, of their many defeats, was the first time this season the Blackhawks lost by more than three goals.  But off that blowout loss, we'll step in and take Chicago to bounce back tonight, at home.  Indeed, over the last 2+ seasons, Chicago has won 63% of the time off a loss by more than three goals.  Meanwhile, this will be the Predators' third road game in five days, and they've won just 30.7% in that situation over the last 2+ seasons.  Take Chicago in this Pk'em game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Washington.  The Bucks blew a 21-point lead in their last game -- a 113-98 loss to New York.  But a hallmark of Mike Budenholzer's coaching tenure with the Bucks is that his team bounces back off losses, and especially in the regular season, where they are 48-18 SU and 41-25 ATS.  And one of the best subsets of that 41-25 applies tonight, as Milwaukee is 13-1 ATS as a road favorite in Eastern Conference games.  Take Milwaukee minus the points.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Cleveland.  The Cavs are 6-4 and, improbably, all six wins have been of the upset variety.  Indeed, the Cavs have been underdogs in ALL 10 of their games this season.  Certainly, if they keep winning at a 60% clip, they'll start to be favored in a significant amount of games.  Still, Cleveland is a very young team, as all five of its starters are less than 25 years of age.  And young teams are prone to ups-and-downs.  I look for Cleveland to suffer one of those proverbial "bumps in the road" tonight, off their 3-game win streak.  Unfortunately, NBA underdogs of +7 (or more) points, off back to back upset wins in which they covered by 7+ points, have gone 66-90 ATS vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  Take New York minus the points.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over the Green Bay Packers.  This game should have been a showcase for the two best quarterbacks in the game, but Aaron Rodgers contracted COVID-19, so he's on the shelf.  Jordan Love will now start for the Packers, so there's quite a mismatch behind center.  Green Bay has been terrific with Rodgers starting at quarterback (127-86-5 ATS in his career), but has burned money when he's been sidelined (7-11 ATS).  It's true that the Packers are on a 7-game SU/ATS win streak.  But NFL underdogs of more than 6 points, off 4 (or more) wins, have gone 1-17 SU and 3-15 ATS in the regular season vs. foes not off a SU/ATS win.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Kansas City.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

t 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs OVER the total.  The Packers have played their last five games 'under' the total, while the Chiefs have played their last 3 'under.'  Now, with 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers sidelined, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game with Jordan Love at quarterback for Green Bay.  But consider that games involving one team off 5+ unders vs. another team off 3+ unders have gone OVER the total 55% of the time, including 63% when the O/U line has been greater than 40 points.  And the Chiefs also fall into a 126-76 Totals system of mine which indicates that they will go OVER the total.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Arizona.  We played on the 49ers in the first meeting, and lost as a 5-point underdog, 17-10.  We'll take San Francisco to avenge that defeat in this rematch, as it falls into several of my favorite NFL systems, which have records of 243-148, 40-19, 224-141, and 225-128 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for Arizona.  It lost its first game, as a 6.5-point home favorite, vs. Green Bay last week.  But, dating back to 1987, .680 (or better) teams, off an upset loss, have cashed just 33.9% vs. foes off a straight-up win.  That doesn't bode well for Arizona to bounce back.  Take the Niners minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Cowboys have covered each of their first 7 games.  Unfortunately, NFL teams that start the season with a 4-0 (or better) ATS record have covered just 39.4% at home vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  With the Broncos, indeed, off a SU/ATS win last week vs. Washington, the elements of our angle are satisfied.  Denver also falls into 224-121 and 191-97 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams with winning ATS records.  Grab the points with the Broncos.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Buffalo.  The Jaguars finally got into the win column two games ago, when they beat Miami, but then lost to the Seahawks, 31-7, last week.  The Jags have been installed as a double-digit home underdog vs. the 5-2 Bills.  And it's been very profitable over the years to take double-digit home dogs, and especially if they were competitive in at least one of their two previous games, and their opponent wasn't off a SU loss.  In this situation, our double-digit home dogs have gone 84-48-2 ATS.  Even better, home dogs off a 23-point loss have gone 178-122 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Take the Jaguars + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Cleveland.  Last week, we played against the Bengals following their huge upset win at Baltimore.  So, it wasn't a surprise that they suffered the biggest upset of any NFL team this season when they lost, 34-31, as a 10.5-point favorite to the New York Jets.  But off that embarrassing defeat, we'll take the Bengals to bounce back strong in this division rivalry.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, teams that lost on the road as a double-digit favorite have bounced back to cover the spread 60% of the time, including 80% ATS if they weren't favored by 3 points in the current game!  Even better:  the Bengals are 16-4 ATS their last 20 division home games when priced from -2 to -5.5 points.  Take the Bengals minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  Last week, we played on the Saints in their upset win, as a 4-point home dog, over the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers.  But teams generally suffer letdowns following such games, and are a wallet-busting 39% ATS after a home upset win over defending champions, including 10-24 ATS their last 24 if they were an underdog of 4+ points in that upset win.  We also played against the Falcons last week, and got the $$$ when Carolina upset Atlanta on the road.   But I expect a bounce-back here, as the Falcons are a super 24-9 their last 33 as a road underdog, including 15-3 ATS if they weren't off a win in their previous game.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Southern Cal.  This is a horrible weekend for USC to make the trip to Tempe.  Last week, the Sun Devils were upset here, at home, by Washington State.  And Arizona State was a 16.5-point favorite in that game.  To say the Sun Devils will want to make amends for that embarrassing loss is an understatement.  Even worse, it was ASU's second straight loss, as they fell at Utah in their game before that.  It's true that Southern Cal has won the last two meetings in this series, and the last three meetings here, in Tempe.  But revenge-minded Pac-12 Conference teams, off back to back losses, and favored by 8+ points at home, have covered 13 games in a row.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Utah.  We played against the Heat on Thursday, and were rewarded with a 95-78 blowout victory by Boston.  That game snapped Miami's five game win streak.  Tonight, we'll switch gears, and lay the points with Miami against the team which has had the league's #1 record over this, and last sesaon -- the Utah Jazz.  Miami falls into a great 94-42 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses, if they're matched up against a .677 (or better) foe off a straight-up win.  Additionally, .670 (or better) NBA teams have gone 159-106 ATS off a loss by 15+ points, if they're not favored by 3+ points.  Take the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Washington.  Mario Cristobal's Ducks are ranked #4 in the latest NCAA Football rankings, and will be out to prove they deserve this lofty position when they take on the Huskies tonight, in Seattle.  Last week, the Ducks fell short "in Vegas," as they won by 23 vs. Colorado, but failed to cover the 24.5-point spread.  Unfortunately for Washington, it's a horrid 7-29 ATS at home vs. conference foes off a conference point spread defeat.  Oregon also fits a very strong 279-189 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses.  Lay the points with the Ducks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over South Carolina.  The Gators lost last week to #1-ranked Georgia -- their 2nd consecutive defeat -- and will no doubt want to take out their frustrations on the over-matched Gamecocks.  At 4-4 on the season, Florida needs two more wins to qualify for the post-season, and I expect it to go all out today in Columbia.  The Gators are big road favorites, but NCAA teams that are favored by 20+ points, have gone 27-12 ATS off back to back losses, if they failed to cover the spread in those two defeats by 9+ points.  Take Florida minus the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Houston.  We played on Houston last Saturday, and they rewarded us with a win over then-undefeated SMU.  But off that big, emotional win, I look for a letdown today.  Indeed, the Cougars fall into a negative 22-67 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off wins over top-tier opponents.  And the Bulls are in a great spot here, off their blowout loss at East Carolina, as they're 10-1 ATS off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Bulls as a big home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over LSU.  Nick Saban's men come into this game with an extra week off to rest, and prepare for LSU.  The Crimson Tide are 23-10 ATS in the regular season when playing with an extra week of rest, and favored by 6+ points.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are 23-40 ATS in the regular season when playing a rested opponent.  Finally, 'Bama is 7-0 SU/ATS at home the past two seasons vs. SEC Conference foes.  Lay the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over NC State.  The Wolfpack won SU/ATS last season in Raleigh vs. these Seminoles, 38-22, as a 13-point home favorite.  But that triumph has triggered super 91-32 and 197-97 ATS revenge systems (that we also used last night on Boston College).  Additionally, the Wolfpack have struggled on the road in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 7.5 (or less) points, as they've gone 14-35-2 ATS, including 2-15 ATS vs. revenge-minded conference opponents.  Finally, Florida State is 7-1 ATS as a single-digit underdog, when playing with revenge against a conference foe.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Baylor.  Gary Patterson's tenure as TCU head coach has ended mid-way through his 21st season, so veteran coach Jerry Kill will take over for the rest of the season.  TCU has nowhere to go but up, in my opinion, following three double-digit SU/ATS losses to Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Kansas State.  And this point spread is inflated following the news of Patterson's departure, so I like the value with the Horned Frogs.  TCU has covered 11 of the last 14 meetings against Baylor.  And Baylor's 11-25 ATS vs. foes off three losses, including 0-9 ATS away from home vs. non-winning foes.  Take TCU + the points.

At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over Navy.  The Irish will welcome the Midshipmen to South Bend, as they look for their 4th straight win and cover following last week's 44-34 home victory over North Carolina.  Meanwhile, Navy upset Tulsa on the road last Friday, 20-17, as a 12-point road dog.  But that upset win has triggered several negative systems of mine that go against Navy, including one with a 94-36 ATS record since 1980.  The Irish are 14-3-3 ATS vs. foes off upset wins, if that foe also covered the spread by 15+ points in its upset victory.  Take Notre Dame.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Oklahoma State.  WVU comes into this game off back to back wins over TCU and Iowa State.   And last week's win was most impressive, as the Mountaineers were a 7.5-point underdog against the then-22nd-ranked Cyclones.  This afternoon, WVU is once again a home underdog against #11 Oklahoma State, which enters on a 6-game ATS win streak.  Even though Okie State is red-hot, we'll grab the points with Neal Brown's men, as Big 12 Conference underdogs, off back to back wins, have gone 42-15 ATS at home, or on a neutral field, in the regular season when playing a conference foe which didn't fail to cover the spread in its previous game.  Take the Mountaneers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Wake Forest.  This is an odd situation, as it matches up two ACC schools, but -- because of scheduling limitations -- will be a "non-conference" game for the Conference standings!  We played on the undefeated Demon Deacons in their last road game -- a 70-56 rout of Army on Oct 23 -- but will now go the other way and play against them on Tobacco Road.  On the surface, it may look difficult to take North Carolina, given that it's off a double-digit loss to Notre Dame last week, and has failed to cover each of its last three games. But consider that undefeated teams, with a record of 5-0 or better, are a poor 38% ATS away from home the past 42 seasons vs. foes off three ATS losses.  Wake Forest's perfect season ends today.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 am, in an EARLY game, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Air Force.  This game will be played on a neutral field, in Arlington, Texas.  And each of this teams come into this morning's game off losses to what was -- at least then -- an undefeated opponent.  Army was wiped out, 70-56, by unbeaten Wake Forest two weeks ago, while Air Force lost two weeks ago at home, as a 3-point favorite, to then-undefeated San Diego State.  Unfortunately, Air Force's upset defeat sets it up in a negative 43-115 ATS system today which goes against certain winning teams off upset losses.  Even worse:  the Falcons are 1-15 ATS their last 16 away from home off an upset loss!  Grab the points with Army.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Indiana.  To say the Trail Blazers' recent road trip was a failure would be an understatement, as it not only lost all three games, but it was favored to win each of them.  So, Portland returns home tonight to take on the Pacers, who upset the Knicks in their last game.  The good news for Portland is that it has won (and covered) its last three home games, with three blowout wins over the Suns (134-105), Grizzlies (116-96) and Clippers (111-92).  I look for Portland to win/cover its fourth straight home game tonight, as Indiana is a horrid 0-4 straight-up, and 1-3 ATS on the road, with its only cover by a mere 1.5 points.  Portland has won 11 of the last 12 meetings at home vs. Indiana, and has covered 8 of those 12.  Lay the points with the Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Nashville Predators over the Vancouver Canucks.  The Predators lost their last game to a very good Oilers team on Wednesday.  But prior to that, the Preds had won four straight by a combined 14-7.  They weren't beating the cream of the NHL crop, but these days it's hard to have a four-game win streak no matter who you're playing.  The Canucks beat the Rangers in their last game but prior to that, Vancouver had lost three straight.  Vancouver's biggest problem right now is health, especially on the front lines.  The Canucks currently have no fewer than five regular forwards out with either an injury or illness.  The Preds will be without one of their best forwards in Filip Forsberg (upper body) but other than that they are healthy.  Nashville's scoring is led by defenseman Roman Josi who has 11 points in 10 games (3 Goals, 8 Assists).  The Canucks have been terrible at home, as they have the second-lowest offensive output this season when hosting (1.75 GPG).  Vancouver is also 1-8 in its last nine games following a win.  Take Nashville.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  This is the 2nd of back to back meetings between these clubs here in Minneapolis.  The T-Wolves lost, 126-111, in the first game.  But I love them to avenge that defeat tonight, as they fall into 185-122 and 141-73 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Additionally, NBA teams playing regular season back to back games against the same opponent have covered 60% if they lost at home by 15+ points in the first meeting.  Take the T-Wolves.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Virginia Tech.  The Eagles are 0-4 SU in ACC play, with blowout losses (by 14+ points) in each of their last three games.  That sets them up well for this game, as home teams that are off a SU/ATS loss, and are winless in conference play (with an 0-4 or worse record), have cashed 58.4% the past 42 years vs. foes off a point spread win.  Moreover, Boston College falls into a great 196-97 ATS revenge system of mine, based on their 40-14 loss at Virginia Tech last season.  Take the Eagles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Wizards are 5-3, but have dropped their last two games to the Hawks and Raptors.  Tonight, they'll welcome the Grizzlies, who come into our Nation's Capitol off back to back home wins over the Nuggets.  We'll take Washington, as the Wizards are 26-11-1 ATS off back to back losses, when playing at home against a foe off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Wizards.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  Tonight's game will wrap up a 4-game home stand for the Lakers.  And L.A. has won the first three.  I don't expect a letdown tonight, especially given that the Thunder handed the Lakers a loss in Oklahoma City back on Oct. 27.  But Los Angeles was playing that night without rest.  And it also had to go to overtime in San Antonio the night before.  Here, Los Angeles is rested, and hasn't had to travel in over a week.  In his career, LeBron James' teams have gone 99-74-1 ATS as a rested, revenge-minded home favorite, including 12-1 ATS when priced from -11 to -14, and 45-29 ATS when playing with revenge from a road upset loss.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts UNDER the total.  The Jets have played their last four games OVER, including a 34-31 upset of the Bengals last week.  Meanwhile, the Colts have played four of their last 5 OVER, including a 34-31 overtime loss to Tennessee last week.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game tonight.  But I don't see it that way, as my numbers project a relatively low-scoring game.  Indeed, games involving a team off 4+ overs, with over/under lines of 45+ points, have gone 'under' 57% majority of the time when their opponent was also off 2+ overs.  Likewise, in matchups between two teams that were each involved in high-scoring (59+ points) games their last time out, the 'under' has cashed 67.8% over the past 36+ seasons when the over/under line ranged from 45 to 52 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Miami, as it falls into a 313-217 ATS system of mine.  We played on the Celtics last night against Orlando, and were rewarded with a blowout win.  Tonight will be Boston's 3rd game in four nights, but we'll still come right back with Boston in this game, as it is a jaw-dropping 51-14 ATS as a road underdog when playing its 3rd game in four nights.  Take Boston + the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over the Utah Jazz.  The Jazz have picked up this regular season where they left off last regular season, as they're off to a 6-1 SU record, including back to back victories over the Bucks and Kings coming into tonight's game.  Meanwhile, Atlanta is 4-4 after losing in Brooklyn yesterday.  But it's also worth noting that it is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS at home. Even better:  the Hawks are a super 15-1 ATS their last 16 (and 73-34 ATS their last 107) at home off a loss, when playing a non-division foe off back to back wins, provided Atlanta wasn't favored by 3+ points.  Take the Hawks here, at home.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Sixers have to travel to the Motor City after playing (and beating) the Chicago Bulls, 103-98, last night in Philly.  Meanwhile, the Pistons are rested, as they haven't played since their blowout home loss on Tuesday, at the hands of the Milwaukee Bucks.  Detroit was a 4.5-point home dog, yet lost that game by 28!  The good news is that rested, losing teams have covered 62.6% since 1990 as home dogs off a home loss in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 23 points, if they were matched up against a winning opponent (and 75% ATS if its opponent was unrested).  Detroit also falls into one of my favorite systems, which is 288-189 ATS since 1990.  Take the Pistons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Sacramento.  We played on the Kings last night, as a big road underdog at Utah, and were rewarded with an easy game where the Kings were never losing against the spread.  But we will fade Sacramento as a home favorite tonight, as it's 18-38-4 ATS as a favorite when playing without rest, if its opponent is off a SU/ATS loss.  With the Pelicans, indeed, off a 12-point loss at Phoenix, we'll grab the points with New Orleans tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs over the Dallas Mavericks.  The Spurs have been saddled with a difficult early schedule that's included games against Milwaukee (twice), Dallas, Denver and the Lakers.  And they've played well, and have covered the point spread by 2.5 ppg, on average.  In contrast, the Mavericks have NOT played well, and have failed to cover the spread by an average of 8.64 ppg.  The Spurs did lose their last game, 131-118, at Indiana.  But the Spurs are 85-51 ATS at home off a double-digit loss, if their opponent wasn't off a double-digit loss.  Take San Antonio.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Memphis Grizzlies.  This is the 2nd of back-to-back games at Memphis between these teams.  We played on the Grizzlies as a 1.5-point favorite in the first game, on Monday.  But we'll take the revenge-minded road team tonight.  This game is also priced near pk'em, and when you get back to back competitively-priced regular season games between the same two teams, the loser of Game 1 has covered Game 2 a very good 73.6% of the time, including 89% on the road.  Take the Nuggets.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Cleveland.  We had a big play on the Cavaliers on Monday, and were rewarded with an outright win, as a 5-point road underdog, at Charlotte.  And that was Cleveland's 2nd straight ATS win, and 5th of its last 6 games.  But we will switch gears, and play against J.B. Bickerstaff's men tonight, as they'll take on a Trail Blazers club off back to back upset losses.  Unfortunately for the Cavs, they're a poor 47-74 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  And Cleveland is also 7-15 ATS against the Blazers, including 1-7 ATS if Portland was off a SU/ATS loss.  Finally, Cleveland falls into negative 0-21 and 38-74 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams with .500 (or better) records off a win.  Lay the points with Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  This was not the start that first-year head coach Ime Udoka had hoped for.  After losing in double-overtime on Saturday to the Wizards, the Celtics blew a 19-point lead in a 14-point defeat to the Chicago Bulls.  And that was the first time in the shot clock era that an NBA team entered the 4th quarter with a 14-point (or greater) lead, and lost by 14+ points.  I love the Celtics to rebound tonight, as Boston's scoring margin on the road this season is +3.5, while Orlando's scoring margin at home is -17.0.  Even better:  the Magic upset Minnesota, as an 8.5-point road underdog on Monday.  But home dogs off an upset win as a dog of more than 8 points have cashed just 40 percent over the last 32 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Lay the points with Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies won at Central Michigan in their last game, 39-38, as a 6-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, Mid-American Conference road teams have covered just 34% of conference games since 1999 as underdogs following an upset win over a conference foe as a 5-point (or greater) underdog.  Admittedly, the Huskies have dominated this series with 10 straight wins vs. Kent State.  But they were favored to win nine of those 10 games (by an average of 10.5 ppg), including -14.5, -7, -8, -25.5, -7 and -23 in the past six seasons.  Tonight, though, Kent has been installed as a home favorite for the first time in this series.  And they fall into an 81-44 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Golden Flashes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Western Michigan.  The Chips come into this game off an upset home loss at the hands of Northern Illinois.  Central Michigan was favored by 6 points, but lost, 39-38.  Western Michigan also lost its last game, as it fell at Toledo, 34-15, as a 1.5-point favorite.  We'll take the points with the Chippewas, as Mid-American Conference teams are 35-10 ATS off an upset home loss, if they were playing an opponent also off a straight-up loss, including 20-3 ATS if our team was favored by 4+ points in their previous game.  Take Central Michigan + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Lakers and Rockets will play the 2nd of back-to-back games here, at Staples Center.  Los Angeles won Round 1 on Sunday night, as it bested Houston, 95-85, but failed to cover the 11-point spread.  We'll play against Los Angeles in this rematch, as the Lakers are an awful 4-17 ATS in the second of back-to-back regular season meetings vs. an opponent. including 1-11 ATS if they won the first meeting, straight-up.  And home favorites of more than 9 points are a poor 31-47 ATS in the 2nd of back to back regular season meetings vs. an opponent they defeated in their previous game.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the New Jersey Devils over the Anaheim Ducks.  The Devils begin a west coast swing tonight that will take them into Anaheim, then up to Los Angeles, and then north to San Jose.  The question for the first game of this road trip is -- which version of the Devils will show up in Anaheim?  This team has been a bit of a Jeckyll and Hyde story lately.  They had inspiring efforts in beating the Penguins and Sabres, but have also lost three of their last five interwoven with those two victories.  But you have to consider who they've lost to as well.  The Flames and Caps look like two of the best teams in the league and the Blue Jackets are 5-3 in their first eight games.  So the Ducks (and their 3-4-3 record) will be a step-down in class tonight, even if this game is in Anaheim's home arena.  The Ducks broke a three-game losing streak in their last game, but it was against the 2-8 Canadiens.  The Ducks are also just 5-23 in their last 28 games as a home underdog while the favorite is 14-4 in the last 18 meetings of these two.  Take New Jersey.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Utah Jazz.  These two teams met earlier this season in Sacramento, where the Jazz were favored by 6 points.  The game was tied in the late stages at 95, but Utah finished the game on a 15-6 run to cover the number.  The game was evenly played except around the 3-point arc, where Utah dominated, as it made 16 long-distance shots to Sacramento's 8.  Still, the Kings have been competitive this season, as they've only lost one game by 10+ points, so I expect another highly competitive game this evening.  This will be the Kings' 4th (and final) road game on a 4-game trek, and they're 32-17 ATS on the road off a road defeat.  Even better:  Sacramento is 27-14 ATS as a revenge-minded road underdog, including a virtually perfect 11-1 ATS when priced from +6 to +9.5 points.  Take the Kings + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Denver.  This is the first of a back-to-back 2-game set between these clubs in Memphis (they'll also play Wednesday).  We'll take the homestanding Grizzlies tonight, as Denver comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins, including an upset win at Minnesota on Saturday.  Unfortunately for the Nuggets, they're 41-69 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS win, including 6-26 ATS vs. foes off a double-digit loss.  Memphis, on the other hand, checks in off a 129-103 upset loss to Miami here, two nights ago.  But rested home teams, off a home upset loss by more than 25 points, have gone 53-34 ATS.  Lay the points with the Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the Washington Wizards.  The Hawks have played six games this season:  two at home, four on the road.  And they're a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS at home, but a winless 0-4 ATS on the road.  The good news for Atlanta is that it's back home tonight to take on a Wizards team which defeated it by 11 this past Thursday.  The Hawks are an awesome 52-24-3 ATS at home if they lost the previous meeting to their opponent by more than 10 points, if their foe was off back to back wins, including 14-1-1 ATS their last 16.  And the Wizards are a wallet-busting 36-78 ATS on the road, if they won the previous meeting by more than 10 points.  Take Atlanta minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  We played on each of Boston and Chicago as underdogs on Saturday, and won easily with Chicago, but lost a heartbreaker on Boston in double-overtime.  We'll come right back with Boston tonight, in this home game vs. the Bulls, as Boston is 20-8-2 ATS off back-to-back ATS losses, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. foes that covered by 10+ in their previous game.  Meanwhile, the Bulls are 18-38 ATS off a SU/ATS win, if they weren't favored by 2+ points in their current game.  Take Boston.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Charlotte.  After ripping off 3 straight upset wins against Atlanta, Denver and the Los Angeles Clippers, the Cavaliers played the Lakers evenly before fading in the 4th quarter, in a 12-point loss (as a 7.5-point underdog).  We actually played against Cleveland in that game, so we were happy with that result.  The Cavs followed up that loss with a 9-point defeat in Phoenix, but covered the 10-point spread for their 4th cover in their last five games -- all on the road.  Cleveland's 6-game road trip will conclude tonight in Charlotte, and the Cavs will benefit from Charlotte having to play the 2nd day of a back-to-back set.  So far, in this early NBA season unrested teams are a soft 3-6 ATS vs. foes off a loss, and underdogs off back to back losses are 12-1 ATS vs. foes off a win.  I really like the way the Cavs are playing.  Take Cleveland + the points.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys have won five straight games, yet find themselves installed as a road underdog tonight, as they might be without their quarterback, Dak Prescott, who is a 'game-time decision.'  We'll lay the points with Minnesota, and play against Dallas, as .800 (or better) NFL underdogs, at Game 7 forward, have covered just 31% of non-division games since 1980 when matched up against a non-winning opponent.  Take the Vikings to hand Dallas its first loss since Week 1.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the ponts over Tampa Bay.  The defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers routed the Chicago Bears, 38-3, last weekend.  Unfortunately, defending Super Bowl champs have covered just 33% as road favorites the following week after winning by 20+ points.  Moreover, Sean Payton has gone 59-27 ATS as coach of the Saints vs. .500 (or better) foes off a SU win.  Take New Orleans + the points.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Sacramento.  The Mavs were annihilated by Portland, 106-75, on Friday.  But we'll take Luka Doncic to rebound on Sunday, as the Mavs are a super 18-1-1 ATS at home off a SU/ATS road loss, if they're playing a non-division foe off a straight-up win.  Even better:  Dallas is 91-47-1 ATS off a loss by more than 20 points.  Lay the points with the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans to go OVER the total.  The Rams are averaging 29.57 ppg, and have scored 28, 38, and 26 over their last three games.  They will surely put up points against a Texans club which has surrendered 31, 31 and 25 over its last three outings.  And while it's true that Houston's offense has its own issues, it did put up 22 vs. a very good Patriots defense here in its most recent home game.  And it's averaging 22.66 ppg at home this season (compared to just 7.25 ppg on the road).  I expect Houston to put up a much better fight this afternoon in front of its home faithful than it did on the road the past two weeks.  And the OVER also falls into a 62-31 Totals system of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals UNDER the total.  This is the Bengals 3rd straight road game, and they exploded for 34 and 41 points in their first two.  Unfortunately that offensive output is unlikely to occur for a 3rd straight road game, as NFL teams that scored more than 28 in back to back road games only average 15.75 ppg in the 3rd road game.  And those games have gone 'under' the total by an average of 5.06 ppg.  The UNDER also falls into a super 92-46 Totals system of mine, and we'll look for a low-scoring game on Sunday.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Buffalo.  These two teams met earlier this season, and the Bills walloped the Dolphins, 35-0.  We'll take Miami in the rematch as a huge double digit underdog, as NFL teams that played with revenge from a shutout loss earlier in the season, have cashed 70% when getting more than 4 points.  Additionally, since 1980, NFL teams playing with revenge from a loss by 35+ points have covered 68.4% vs. .666 (or better) division foes.  Take Miami + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Tennessee.  The Titans pulled off a big upset last week, when they knocked off Kansas City, 27-3, as a 4-point home underdog.  And that was the 2nd straight upset win at home by Tennessee.  But they're now playing on the road, and against a division foe which will seek revenge from a 9-point loss in Nashville, in September.  We'll go against Tennessee, as unrested road underdogs have covered just 38.7% over the last 42 seasons following back to back home upset wins.  Take Indianapolis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Cincinnati.  The 5-2 Bengals come into New York off a huge divisional upset win over the Baltimore Ravens, as they snapped Baltimore's 5-game win streak.  But NFL road favorites have covered just 28% since 1980 after an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog, if that upset win involved two teams with .666 (or better) win percentages.  I look for a big letdown by the Bengals on the road.  Take the Jets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  Carolina has lost its last 4 games in a row, but now fall into a 37-11 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on long losing streaks, as well as a 51-32 ATS angle which plays on teams off outright losses as a road favorite, when matched up against opponents off SU/ATS wins as a road favorite.  With Carolina, indeed, off an upset, 25-3, loss on the road at New York, and Atlanta in off a road favorite SU/ATS win over the Dolphins, we'll grab the points with Carolina this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over the Utah Jazz.  The Jazz come into this game off a blowout win at Houston two nights ago, and remain the NBA's lone undefeated team.  Chicago also was undefeated but, after ripping off 4 wins to start the season, it lost its first game when it was upset here, at home, by the Knicks on Thursday night.  However, I love Chicago to bounce back tonight as a home underdog, as home teams with a .740 (or better) win percentage have gone 110-68-4 ATS off an upset loss, when matched up against an opponent off a SU/ATS win (including 81-44 vs. non-division foes).  Grab the points with Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Milwaukee.  The Bucks went into the Alamo City earlier this season, and handed Gregg Popovich's crew a 10-point loss.  Still, the Spurs were competitive in defeat, and only failed to cover the spread by 4.0 points.  For the season, San Antonio has had a chance to win each of its five games.  So, even though it's 1-4 straight-up, it has gone 3-2 ATS, and has covered the spread by an average of 2.40 ppg.  That compares favorably with Milwaukee's point spread differential, which is -3.10 ppg.  And the Spurs also have a better scoring margin than Milwaukee thus far, as the Spurs have outscored their foes by 0.20 ppg, while the Bucks have a negative scoring margin of -0.80 ppg.  Finally, San Antonio has cashed 62.5% in the regular season off 3+ losses, provided it's either rested, or favored in the game.  Take the Spurs.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over the Toronto Raptors.  The Pacers come into this game on a 3-game losing streak, including a SU/ATS loss in their most recent home game -- a 119-109 setback to the Milwaukee Bucks this past Monday.  But Indiana generally doesn't play poorly in consecutive home games, and fail to cover the spread in each.  And especially not if it's favored in the 2nd home game following an ATS loss in the previous home game.  Then, the Pacers are a solid 256-203-10 ATS, including 45-26 ATS off 3+ losses.  Take Indiana minus the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  Both teams enter this game with identical 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS records.  Interestingly, Atlanta has yet to cover the spread on the road this season, as it's 0-3 ATS, while the Sixers are winless ATS at home, with an 0-2 ATS record.  So, something will have to give tonight.  We'll go against the Hawks, as the 76ers will be out to avenge their 7-game playoff series defeat at the hands of Atlanta in last season's quarterfinals.  The Hawks are 5-15 ATS on the road vs. revenge-minded foes, while Philly is 25-13 ATS at home when playing with revenge.  And Philly also falls into 65.7% and 60.1% ATS revenge systems of mine.  Take the Sixers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Houston Cougars over the SMU Mustangs.  This is a great Lone Star State match-up in the American Athletic Conference, as Dana Holgorsen's Cougars are 6-1, while Sonny Dykes' Mustangs are a game better, at 7-0.  The Ponies come into this game off a 55-26 blowout win over Tulane, as a 14-point favorite.  But SMU is an awful 9-28 ATS on the conference road off a win by 7+ points over a conference foe.  And it's 13-37 ATS as a road underdog of +10 points or less (or PK).  Meanwhile, Houston is a powerful 24-10 ATS its last 34 vs. conference foes that were undefeated in conference play, and it's also 9-1 ATS its last 10 vs. conference rivals that owned a .900 (or better) season W/L percentage.  Finally, SMU falls into a negative 6-31-1 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain undefeated teams.  Take Houston to blow out the Mustangs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Kentucky.  Mississippi State lost, 24-2, at Kentucky last season, so they'll be out to avenge that defeat on Saturday.  The task will no doubt be tough, as Mark Stoops' Wildcats are 4-1 in the SEC this season (and 5-0 ATS), and 6-1 overall.  Still, Kentucky finds itself the road underdog in Starkville this evening.  In their last game, they lost for the first time this season, as #1-ranked Georgia handed Kentucky a 30-13 setback.  Off that first defeat, we'll fade Kentucky on the road against 4-3 Mississippi State, as teams that sustain their first loss, following a 5-0 (or better) start to the season have covered just 43% over the last 42 years, including an awful 24 of 70 away from home vs. sub-.600 teams.  This season, there have already been 4 teams that fell into this general "bubble-burst" system, and those teams went 1-3 ATS, including Coastal Carolina not covering this past Thursday vs. Troy (as a 17-point favorite), and Penn State losing outright to Illinois last Saturday as a 24.5-point favorite!  The Bulldogs are also 16-8 ATS their last 24 at home vs. .857 (or better) opposition.  And they're also 26-14 ATS when favored, and playing with revenge.  Take Mississippi State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Texas El Paso.  The Miners are no doubt having strong season, as they're 6-1, including 3 straight wins to open their Conference USA schedule.  But .833 (or better) road underdogs of more than 5 points, with a 2-0 (or better) conference record, have covered just 36.7% of conference road games over the last 42 years.  And double-digit dogs have covered just 32.1% off 4 SU/ATS wins, if they're matched up against a conference foe off a double-digit win.  Florida Atlantic has won its three home games this season by 29, 37 and 32 points, and has won 11 straight at home dating back to November 9, 2019.  Even better:  since 2017, it's 24-4 SU and 15-9 ATS at home (including 7-0 ATS when priced from -8.5 to -15), and has covered the spread at home by an average of 7.34 ppg.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over the Washington Wizards.  This is a big revenge game for Boston, which lost at home to the Wizards by nine points, on Wednesday.  We'll take the points with Ime Udoka's men, as Boston is 20-4 ATS as revenge-minded road underdogs vs. .636 (or better) non-division foes.  Meanwhile, Washington is a wallet-breaking 8-26 ATS at home off an upset win, if its foe is playing with revenge.  Take the Celtics + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Texas Tech.  The Sooners are a perfect 8-0 on the season, but struggled last week in a 12-point win at Kansas, as a 38-point favorite.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Sooners, who are burning money this season, at 3-5 ATS.  But consider that NCAA teams, off wins by less than 13 points as 35-point (or greater) favorites, have bounced back to cover the spread in their next game 68.4% of the time since 1980.  Additionally, Oklahoma falls into one of my favorite systems which is 278-189-8 ATS which plays on certain teams off ATS defeats.   The Sooners have won 9 straight in this series and they're 7-1 ATS their last 8 at home vs. the Red Raiders.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Florida State.  Dabo Swinney's men have yet to cover the point spread this season.  The result is that we're now getting point spread value on the Tigers in this home game vs. Florida State, as they're favored by less than 10 points.  And winless ATS teams, favored by single digits, with a winning SU record, have covered 63.8% vs. conference foes off a SU win.  Even better:  the Seminoles are 1-6 ATS off a cover by 21+ points, if playing a conference foe off a loss.  And Clemson is 42-23 ATS at home vs. ACC Conference foes when not laying 10+ points.  Take the Tigers.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Florida International.  The Panthers won their opening game vs. Long Island, but have lost all six games since, including a 34-19 defeat at home to Western Kentucky last Saturday.  Florida International is now 0-3 this season in Conference USA games; 0-8 SU since Nov. 9, 2010; and has covered just 3 of its last 13 conference games.  And, to make matters worse, Marshall had last week off to rest and prepare for this game.  That's key, as the Panthers fall into a negative 28-69 ATS system of mine that goes against certain losing teams vs. a rested foe.  Lay the points with Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Wisconsin.  Kirk Ferentz's men have had two weeks to lick their wounds following their 17-point upset loss at the hands of Purdue, in Ames.  Then, the week after that game, Wisconsin blew out that same Purdue team by 17 points.  We actually had a huge play on Wisconsin last week.  But we will switch gears, and go against the Badgers as a home favorite on Saturday.  Indeed, I love playing on great teams, with an .833 (or better) win percentage, off double-digit losses as double-digit favorites, as such teams tend to rebound off those horrid upset defeats more often than not, and especially when not laying 20+ points, as they're 76% ATS over the last 41 seasons.  Moreover, Iowa is 20-8 ATS in Big 10 games off an upset conference loss, if they own a winning record.  Take the Hawkeyes + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Miami-Fla.  The Panthers are on a roll, with 4 straight wins and covers.  And they'll welcome the Hurricanes to the Steel City on Saturday after Miami pulled off an upset against NC State last weekend.  But Miami is a wallet-breaking 1-12 ATS off a home win, while the Panthers are 17-5 ATS in conference games at home off a double-digit conference win.  And Pitt also falls into 113-42 and 270-178 ATS systems of mine that fade certain road teams off upset victories.  It's true that the Panthers' star WR, Jordan Addison (670 Yds, 10 TDs), who suffered a concussion last week, is a 'game-time decision.'  But Addison practiced in pads on Thursday, so even though he'll need medical clearance, there's optimism that he'll be on the field.  Regardless, we'll take Kenny Pickett & Co. on Saturday to blow out Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points over Illinois.  Last week, the Illini won a 9-overtime thriller vs. Penn State.  And the Illini were 24.5-point underdogs in that game.  Unfortunately, home underdogs off upset road wins as 17-point (or greater) underdogs have covered just 37% over the last 42 years.  Take Rutgers minus the points.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Cavaliers come into this game off back to back upset wins over Denver and the LA Clippers.  And Cleveland covered each of those two victories by 21+ points!  Unfortunately, NBA underdogs of +7 (or more) points, off back to back covers by 21+ points, have gone 0-16 SU and 3-12-1 ATS since March, 1991, including 0-7 ATS their last 7.  Moreover,  LeBron James' teams have cashed 64.4% in his career vs. foes off back-to-back upset wins, while the Lakers are 27-16 ATS as favorites of more than 2 points vs. foes off back to back upsets.   With Los Angeles in off an 8-point upset loss to the Thunder, as a 6-point favorite,  we'll play on L.A. to make amends with a rout of Cleveland.  Lay the points with the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Navy.  Tulsa is 3-4 this season (after winning its last two games), and still has road games at #2 Cincinnati and #19 SMU.  So, unless it can pull a huge upset against either of those two juggernauts, it knows it must win the other 3 games on its schedule to qualify for a bowl game.  The good news is that its other three opponents are Navy (1-6), Tulane (1-6), and Temple (3-4), so there's no reason that Tulsa can't reach the post-season.  In its last game -- 13 days ago -- Tulsa eked out a 1-point win at South Florida, but failed to cover the 7-point spread.  But we'll look for the Golden Hurricane to bounce back on Friday, as it's 25-6-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread vs. a conference foe in its previous game, including a perfect 6-0-1 ATS when laying 7+ points.  Additionally, Navy has covered just 5 of 23 off a loss when playing an opponent off back to back wins.  And Tulsa falls into a 271-173-3 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested teams in the regular season.  Lay the points with Tulsa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Utah.  The Jazz blew out Denver by 12 points in their last game to move to 3-0 this season.  They'll now play the 1-3 Rockets, who come into this game off a double-digit loss at Dallas.  Tonight's game, though, is in Houston, where the Rockets' margin of victory is +11.5 this season.  Utah has been installed as a huge road favorite.  Unfortunately, non-division road favorites are an awful 3-21 ATS at Houston off back to back ATS wins, if the Rockets were not off a SU/ATS win.  And the Jazz also fall into a negative 28-70 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off ATS wins.  Grab the points with the home underdog Rockets on Thursday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over East Carolina.  The Bulls broke out in a big way in their last game, as they amassed a whopping 421 yards on the ground, in a 34-14 win vs. Temple, as a 1.5-point favorite.  South Florida has been installed as a double-digit underdog here, in Greenville, tonight.  And that bodes well for the Bulls, as East Carolina has covered just six of its last 23 as a favorite, including 0-6 ATS vs. an opponent off a SU win!  Meanwhile, the Bulls are 17-9 ATS on the road vs. conference foes when not laying more than 3 points.  Finally, East Carolina falls into negative 111-210 and 56-125 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off SU losses.  Take The Bulls + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Blazers were blown out by 30 points by the Clippers two nights ago here, at home, while Memphis dropped a 121-118 decision to the Lakers.  We'll take Portland tonight, as it falls into an 86-39 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested teams off blowout losses.  Even better:  the Grizzlies have covered just 14 of 58 road games against foes off a loss by more than 15 points, provided Memphis also wasn't off a loss by more than 15.  Take the Trail Blazers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Atlanta Braves.  The starting pitchers for each team tonight were crushed in their last game.  Max Fried gave up 5 runs over 4 2/3 innings in an 11-2 loss at Los Angeles, while Jose Urquidy also surrendered 5 earned runs over 1 2/3 in a 12-3 loss at Boston.  Both Fried and Urquidy had better numbers at home this season, than on the road.  And that's good news for Urquidy, as this game will be played in Houston, where he was 4-1 in 10 starts this season, with a 3.35 ERA and an impressive 0.88 WHIP.  And Houston was a perfect 4-0 at home vs. Playoff teams behind Urquidy this season.  The Astros are 16-8 (7.6 net games on the moneyline) when priced from +125 to -125 at home, while the Braves are 2-5 this season behind Max Fried as a road underdog.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Philadelphia.  The Knicks come into this game off an upset loss (as a huge 12-point favorite) at the hands of the Orlando Magic on Sunday.  We played against New York in that game (as it was a big revenge match for the Magic), but we'll switch gears and lay the points with New York tonight, as revenge situations don't get much better than this.  Philadelphia has won each of the 15 meetings over the previous four seasons vs. New York.  Of course, the 76ers were favored to win all 15 of those games, so not really surprising that they did (the last time New York won SU, was also the last time it was favored vs. Philly).  But the Knicks have more talent now than they did a few years ago, and will be much more competitive vs. Philly this season.  New York falls into a 65-26 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off horrible losses, and it also falls into a 74% ATS revenge system of mine based on its play against the 76ers.  The Knicks are 21-6 ATS at home when not getting 2+ points, while Philly is 5-19-2 ATS on the road when not laying 2+ points.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Minnesota.  These teams are meeting for the 2nd straight game, as the T-Wolves won Round 1, 96-89, as a 7.5-point home favorite.  We'll take New Orleans in this rematch, as Minnesota is an awful 80-133 ATS as a rested home favorite, priced from -2 to -9.5 points.  Also, the Pelicans fall into a 121-83 ATS revenge system of mine.  That angle plays on .200 (or worse) revenge-minded road teams that are rested, and off a loss in their previous game.  Take the Pelicans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over the Chicago Bulls.  The Bulls are 3-0 to start the season, but have played an exceptionally easy schedule, with two games against Detroit, and one against New Orleans.  And neither the Pelicans nor the Pistons have won a game this season (they're 0-5 combined).  We'll go against the Bulls tonight, as undefeated teams, off back to back wins by 15+ points, have covered just 36% since 1990 when not favored by 5+ points.  Take Toronto as a home underdog on Monday.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Washington Wizards.  The Nets lost their home opener yesterday, 111-95, to the Charlotte Hornets.  We'll take Brooklyn to bounce back tonight against the 2-0 Wizards, as home favorites of more than 6 points, off a loss in their home opener, have cashed 73% since 1991 against conference foes.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of their back-to-back games here at Staples Center.  Last night, Memphis upset the Clippers, 120-114, as a 4-point underdog.  Unfortunately, NBA underdogs have only covered 33% over the last 32 seasons when playing back to back nights against the Clippers and Lakers, if they won outright on the first night.   That doesn't bode well for Memphis tonight.  Nor does it help matters that Los Angeles has started the season 0-2 here at Staples Center, and will be looking to get off the schneid tonight.  Indeed, this is the 9th time since 1990 that an NBA team opened the season with 3 straight home games, and dropped their first two.  Of those eight previous teams, only 1 of them (Golden State, 2004) failed to cover the spread in its 3rd home game.  The Lakers are also 16-11 ATS their last 27 vs Memphis, and they're 11-4 ATS at home off back to back home ATS losses, when playing a foe off an ATS win.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Indianapolis.  Jimmy Garoppolo will be back on the field for this Sunday Night game, and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the 49ers.  In their last game, the Niners started rookie Trey Lance and -- though he did some things well -- on balance, he underwhelmed, (15-for-29, 192 yds, 1 INT), and was stopped at the goal line on a key rush attempt.  The 49ers had last week off to regroup from that loss (and the two previous losses before it), so they'll try to snap their 3-game losing streak tonight.  Key stat:  rested teams off 3+ losses are 85-58-2 ATS their last 145.  Even better:  San Francisco 84-57-3 ATS when favored by 3.5 (or more) points off an ATS loss, and it is also 7-0 ATS after not covering the spread in any of their three previous games.  Take the 49ers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Houston Rockets.  The Ime Udoka Era hasn't started off well for the 0-2 Celtics.  But I love them to break into the Win Column on this Sunday evening.  The Celts lost at home to Atlantic division rival, Toronto, on Friday, 115-83, as a 7-point favorite.  But Boston is an awesome 31-8 ATS its last 39 off an upset loss to a division foe, if Boston was favored by 4+ points in that defeat.  Meanwhile, Houston's 0-11 ATS vs. rested foes that don't own a winning record, provided Houston wasn't favored by more than 2 points.  Take the Celtics minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.