Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers over the Miami Heat.  The Pacers will look to avenge an upset loss at home to the Heat 18 days ago.  Indiana was favored by 5.5 points in that game, yet fell by 9, 113-104.  The Pacers have gone 4-2 SU since that game, including a 122-113 victory over Detroit (as a 10-point favorite) their last time out.  But they've dropped their last two games to the spread.  Still, we'll lay the points with the Pacers, as they're 128-91 ATS  off a point spread defeat when favored, and playing with revenge against an opponent which defeated them earlier in the season.  Moreover, the Heat were upset on the road by Detroit in their last game.  Unfortunately, the Heat have burned money at home over the last 32 years after getting upset on the road in their previous game, and especially when matched up against a foe off back to back ATS losses.  In that situation, Miami's covered just 21% since 1990.  Take Indiana.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs over Texas San Antonio.  Both of these teams had spectacular seasons.  And they were similar in that each of them overachieved.  Texas San Antonio opened the season with an upset win as a 4.5-point underdog over Illinois.  That was our first big play of the College season, and the Roadrunners went on to win their first 11 games (8-3 ATS) before finally losing at North Texas in Game #12.  They then won their Conference USA Championship game against Western Kentucky, and we played on them in that victory, as well.  Likewise, San Diego State won 11 of its first 12 games (6-5-1 ATS) before losing the Mountain West Championship game to Utah State.  It's hard for me to pass up the Aztecs in this underdog role, given that it has given up just 14.2 ppg in its five road games this season.  In contrast, Texas San Antonio has surrendered 31.3 ppg in its six road games.  And the Roadrunners' record-setting RB, Sincere McCormick (1663 total yards), will skip the game, so he won't get injured in advance of April's NFL draft.  McCormick is San Antone's career leader in rushing yards (3,929), touchdowns (34) and all-purpose yards (4,438), and was just named Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year, in addition to several 2nd-team and 3rd-team All-American honors.  Mountain West Conference teams have gone 37-24 ATS as underdogs in the post-season, including 7-2 ATS when they owned a defense that gave up less than 19.5 ppg.  Finally, San Diego St. is 7-1 ATS its last eight as an underdog (and 24-12 ATS its last 36) off a double-digit conference defeat.  Take the Aztecs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Los Angeles.  The Rams come into this game off back to back wins over Jacksonville and Arizona.  And that victory over the Cardinals was an upset win as a 3-point road underdog.  The Rams have been very good since Sean McVay took over as head coach in 2017 when they have been off a loss (17-8 SU, 15-9 ATS), but awful when they've been off back to back wins (15-17 SU, 9-23 ATS), including 0-10 ATS their last 10 as a favorite off back-to-back wins.  That doesn't bode well for Los Angeles tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Seahawks will be playing with revenge from a 26-17 defeat to the Rams earlier this year.  And Seattle is 23-11 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 12-2 ATS when catching 3+ points.  Finally, Seattle falls into a 76% ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams against foes off wins.  Take the Seahawks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Elon.  Arkansas sprinted out to a 9-0 record before dropping games to Oklahoma and Hofstra in the last 10 days.  But I look for Eric Musselman's men to rebound tonight, as the Razorbacks are a reliable 86-53-3 ATS at home off a loss.  Even better:  NCAA teams with a win percentage of at least .818 have cashed 70.5% at home over the past 32 years vs. losing teams, if our home team was off back to back SU/ATS losses.  And Elon's a wallet-breaking 11-24-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss, including 2-11 ATS when getting more than 5 points.  Lay the points with Arkansas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on The Citadel minus the points over Manhattan.  In a matchup of "Bulldogs," The Citadel was upset last night by cross-state rival, South Carolina State, 74-57, as a 12-point home favorite, in the opening round of The Citadel Classic.  That upset loss shouldn't have come as too much of a surprise, as South Carolina State was looking to avenge a loss to The Citadel in Orangeburg a few weeks ago.  We'll take the Bulldogs to bounce back here, at home, tonight vs. the Jaspers, as it's 11-3 ATS its last 14 at home, or on neutral courts, while Manhattan is a woeful 0-7 ATS its last 7 vs. opponents off a double-digit loss.  Take The Citadel minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Davidson.  This game will be played on a neutral court, in Birmingham, AL.  Nate Oats' men do come into this game off three straight ATS losses.  But I look for 'Bama to get back into the (point spread) win column tonight, as the Crimson Tide is a solid 19-7-1 ATS away from home if it was on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  It's true that Bob McKillop has built a great program at Davidson over the last few decades, and he will be seeking his 21st straight winning season this year.  But one area he has NOT had much success is against the country's better teams, as Davidson is 10-48 straight-up, and 18-39-1 ATS as an underdog of +15 (or less) points (or PK) vs. .742 (or better) opposition.  Take Alabama to blow out the Wildcats.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the Dallas Stars.  Minnesota enters this game on a season-long 3-game losing streak.  Immediately before this stretch, the Wild had won eight straight games.  I look for Minny to bounce back tonight, as it's 20-8 its last 28 off back to back losses; and 20-7 off a home loss.  These two teams also met earlier this season, with the Wild topping the Stars in a 7-2 blowout.  Unfortunately for Dallas, it's 26-37 (minus 16.6 net games on the moneyline) when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 3 goals.  Finally, this will be Dallas' 3rd game in four nights, while the Wild have been idle over the last three days.  And the Stars are a poor 6-18 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings game.  Both teams come into this game off high-scoring affairs.  The Vikings tallied 36 last week in an 8-point win over Pittsburgh, while Chicago posted 30 in a 15-point loss at Green Bay.  And the aggregate points of each team's last two games, combined, have been 120 (Minnesota) and 130 (Chicago) points.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game tonight.  But NFL games have gone under the total 75% over the last 42 years if both teams' previous two games combined for 120+ points, with each game going 'over' the total, and each of the teams scored 28+ points in its previous game.  That bodes well for the 'under' tonight.  As does the fact that the Bears have gone 'under' the total in 23 of 33 division games when installed as a home underdog, including 12-0 UNDER when the line ranged from 42 to 48 points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over San Antonio.  The Kings were blown out, 136-117, by the Spurs in the Alamo City on November 10.  We'll take the Kings in this revenge match, as they're 93-64-3 ATS at home off a loss when playing with revenge from a loss by 10+ points.  Meanwhile, the Spurs fall into a negative 41-81 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take the Kings + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the St. Louis Blues.  The Blues come into today's game with a 17-8-5 record that has them currently tied for second place in the Central Division, just one point behind the Minnesota Wild.  But despite the success, St. Louis' hockey team is still struggling mightily when it goes on the road this season.  In 14 games away from Enterprise Center, the Blues are 6-5-3 but even more concerning is the fact that they are 1-6 in their last seven on the road heading into this afternoon's match-up.  This is a very good team when healthy, but the Blues are anything but that as they go into Winnipeg for the second time this season.  St. Louis currently has no fewer than 10 regular players out of action with either an illness or injury, including six forwards who won't be suiting up (Schenn, Thomas, Kyrou, Neal, Perron, Sundqvist).  The Jets are 9-6-1 at the Canada Life Centre and they have taken two of the last three overall against the Blues.  Take Winnipeg.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Holy Cross Crusaders + the points over Harvard.  Harvard comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses, and has been installed as a huge favorite vs. the Crusaders.  But Harvard is a wallet-breaking 12-25-1 ATS as a favorite, including 1-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite.  And Holy Cross has covered 61.7% since 1990 when getting more than 8 points, including 70% ATS if it was off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Holy Cross + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Colgate Raiders + the points over Monmouth.  The Raiders come into this Gotham Classic game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Pittsburgh and St. John's, while the Hawks are off back to back SU/ATS wins over Pittsburgh and Yale.  Unfortunately for Monmouth, it's 1-8 ATS off back to back wins, when matched up against an opponent off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Raiders + the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Robert Morris Colonials + the points over Bowling Green.  The Falcons have been installed as a double-digit favorite vs. Robert Morris.  But Bowling Green hasn't been the most reliable favorite over the years.  Indeed, it's covered just eight of 41 games as a favorite, including 0-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite, and 0-11-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Take Robert Morris.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Arizona.  The Lions are 1-11-1, but they play extremely hard, and have covered the spread in eight of their 13 games, including four of their last five.  They were blown out, 38-10, by Denver last week, so that was one of the five instances they didn't cover the spread.  But, frankly, that was to be somewhat expected given that Detroit had actually won its first game of the season the previous week vs. Minnesota, while Denver was looking to redeem itself following its double-digit loss the previous week.  We had a play against Detroit last week, but we will switch gears and take it this afternoon.  Indeed, Detroit is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season off a point spread defeat (and also 4-0 ATS off a double-digit loss).  And it's 29-11 ATS as an underdog off a double-digit loss, when matched up against an opponent off a defeat.  Arizona does have the league's best record, at 10-3, but it did lose last week, at home, vs. the Rams.  Unfortunately, teams with exceptional W/L records have NOT bounced back off losses late in the regular season, as they've covered just 37.1% at Game 14 forward in the regular season.  And the league's worst teams -- with win percentages less than .150 -- have done great toward the end of the season, when installed as a home underdog vs. an opponent off a loss, as they've gone 35-20 ATS since 1980 at Game 12 forward.  Take Detroit + the double-digits.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans to go OVER the total.  The Jaguars fired Urban Meyer this week, and have named offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell as interim head coach.  Jacksonville's offense has been moribund of late, as it's scored just 64 points over its last seven games, including a shutout loss last week at Tennessee.  Not surprisingly, Jacksonville's last eight games have all gone 'under' the total.  But there is good reason to expect a different result this afternoon.  First and foremost, the over/under line is the lowest this season for a Jaguars game by 5 points (more than the 2nd lowest O/U line).  Indeed, four of Jacksonville's last eight games would have gone 'over' the total had the line been this low.  Additionally, NFL teams that scored less than 14 points in their previous game, and have gone 'under' the total six (or more) games in a row have gone OVER 65.1% since 1980 in games with lines less than 43 points.  I look for a relatively high scoring game this afternoon.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Louisiana Lafayette.  The Herd were blown out, 53-21, by Western Kentucky at the end of their regular season.  But off that blowout loss, we'll step in and grab the points with Marshall on Saturday, as it's generally bounced back off poor games.  For example, the Thundering Herd are 10-0-2 ATS off a loss by more than 25 points, if they weren't laying 3+ points in their current game.  Even better:  Marshall's 12-3 ATS in the Bowl games, while the Rajin' Cajuns are 0-4 ATS in the Bowls since 2016.  Take Marshall + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Cleveland.  The Cavaliers are on an historic 13-game point spread win streak, and have covered by an average of 8.36 ppg (through 30 games).  To put this in perspective, going into Game 31 of a season, the 2nd best team (Boston, 2008) covered the spread by "just" 6.28 ppg.  So, Cleveland is a country mile ahead of that impressive Celtics team (which went on to win the NBA title).  Tonight, the Cavs will try to avenge a defeat to one of the only two teams to defeat it since Thanksgiving.  Cleveland and Milwaukee played back on Dec. 6, and the Bucks won that game, 112-104, as an 8.5-point favorite, so the Cavs eked out an ATS win.  But tonight (due to player absences), the Cavs have been installed as a road favorite.  But even though Milwaukee will be missing Giannis Antetokounmpo, and a few other key players, it isn't bereft of talent.  We'll take Milwaukee at this price, as Mike Budenholzer's men have won the last eight games SU, and they're also 8-2 ATS over the last 10 meetings with the Cavs.  Take Milwaukee + the points to snap Cleveland's 13-game ATS win streak.  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Utah State.  This game will be played at the Sanford Pentagon, in Sioux Falls, SD.  Iowa will be looking to redeem itself after getting blown out by rival, Iowa State, 73-53, as a 5-point favorite, nine days ago.  Based on history, it should, as it's 41-24 ATS off a loss by more than 15 points, as well as 10-3 ATS after failing to cover by 23+ points (including 6-0 ATS when favored by more than 3).  Take Iowa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over New England.  Dating back to October 24, New England has ripped off seven straight wins and covers.  But only one of the seven teams it has defeated (Tennessee) has had a winning record in its games since October 24.  So, Indianapolis will represent a great challenge for New England, given that the Colts are 6-2 over their last eight games (and 7-3 ATS over their last 10).  Last week, the Colts accomplished an impressive feat, when it shut out the Texans on the road, 31-0.  And NFL teams off road shutout wins have gone 68-45-2 ATS since 1980.  Even better:  the Patriots had last week off following their big upset win at division rival, Buffalo.  But when a team is playing as well as New England, it can often be counter-productive in the regular season to have a week off.  Indeed, rested NFL underdogs off a division win (and 3 straight ATS wins overall) have gone 0-15 straight-up and 1-13-1 ATS in the regular season since 1980.  Take the Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Hofstra.  This game will be played at Simmons Bank Arena, in Little Rock tonight.  The Razorbacks were upset by Oklahoma last Saturday.  But they're a fantastic 31-15 ATS at home, or on a neutral court in non-conference games, if they were off a loss, including 13-2 ATS off an upset defeat.  Additionally, the Razorbacks fall into a 65.8% ATS system of mine which plays on certain favorites off upset losses.  Lay the points tonight with Arkansas.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Southern Utah.  The Wolverines have had an up-and-down season after starting the year ranked among the Top 5.  Juwan Howard's men have now lost games to Seton Hall, Arizona, North Carolina and Minnesota.  The last game (vs. Minnesota) was the least probable, as Michigan was a 13.5-point home favorite in that contest.  But off that loss, we'll lay the points this evening, as Michigan is 72-39-2 ATS its last 113 off a loss in its previous game, including 11-0-1 its last 12 (and 30-9-1 its last 40) when priced from -5.5 to -16 points.  Take the Wolverines.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Canisius Golden Griffins + the points over Buffalo.  This cross-town rivalry game will be played at KeyBank Center this afternoon, as part of a triple-header of hoops in downtown Buffalo.  Like many City rivalries, this one has been kind to the underdog, which has gone 12-6-1 ATS since 1993, including 6-2-1 ATS when getting more than 6 points.  We'll fade Buffalo today, as Mid-American Conference teams have covered just 71 of 173 as a double-digit favorite vs. losing opponents playing away from home, if such foe was off back to back SU/ATS losses.  With Canisius currently riding a 5-Game SU/ATS losing streak, we'll grab the double-digits with the Golden Griffins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Northern Colorado.  The Cougars lost here, at home, on Wednesday, 64-61, as a 7.5-point favorite.  After that defeat, Washington State's coach, Kyle Smith, questioned his team's toughness and grit when he fielded questions at the press conference.  So, I expect his men will have heard that criticism, and will respond today with a much better effort.  For technical support, consider that Wazzu is 38-19 ATS as a favorite of -7 (or more) points off a loss, including a wallet-fattening 25-9 ATS vs. foes that don't have a winning record.  Moreover, the Northern Colorado Bears have gone 1-5-1 ATS their last seven games vs. the Pac-12 Conference and are 0-14 SU vs. the Pac-12 since 1990.  Lay the points with Washington State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners + the points over Fresno State.  Unless one is betting on a top-level team, it's generally not a good idea to lay a lot of points in Bowl games.  And Fresno State -- with its 9-3 record, and scoring margin less than 14 ppg -- certainly is not a top-level team.  The Bulldogs have been terrific as an underdog in the post-season (10-3 ATS), but horrid as a favorite/Pk in the Bowls, as it's 1-7 ATS!  Meanwhile, UTEP is 5-0 ATS its last 5, and 13-6 ATS its last 19 games as a rested underdog of +6 (or more) points.  Take the double-digits with Texas El Paso.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Minnesota.  We played on the Timberwolves this past Wednesday, and they rewarded us with an upset win over the Denver Nuggets.  But we will switch gears, and fade Minnesota tonight.  These two teams met earlier this season at Staples Center (now Crypto.com Arena), and the T-Wolves walloped the Lakers, 107-83, as a 2.5-point underdog.  We'll lay the points with Los Angeles in this revenge match, as the Lakers are 51-29 ATS as a road favorite, when playing with revenge, including 36-18 if they lost at home to their opponent in the prior meeting.  Even better:  Los Angeles is 47-25 ATS on the road vs. non-division losing teams off an upset win, while Minnesota is 0-12-1 ATS off an upset win by more than 7 points, if it was playing a non-division foe.  Take the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Utah.  We played on the Jazz in each of their last two games, and they rewarded us with blowout wins over Washington (123-98) and Los Angeles (124-10).  And that last victory was an emotional one for Utah, as it avenged their Playoffs ouster by the Clippers last spring.  Utah's now won eight straight, and has covered their last four.  But off that emotional win, we will fade the Jazz tonight.  Indeed, NBA teams that won by double-digits to avenge a Playoff series loss have had a letdown their next game when playing inferior teams with significantly worse win percentages (they've lost 82.3% since 1991).  The Spurs gave up 131 points in their last game -- a home loss to Charlotte.  And coach Gregg Popovich called out his team for their lack of competitiveness.  The Spurs typically respond well when their coach challenges them after a poor game, and they're 7-1-1 ATS their last nine after giving up 125+ points, and 6-0-1 ATS after a loss by 15+ points.  Take the Spurs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Friday, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders + the points over Toledo.  In this battle between the Mid-American Conference and Conference USA, we're going to take the points with Middle Tennessee St.  The Mid-American Conference teams have not fared well when laying points over the years, including 3-6 ATS over their last nine as a favorite of more than four in the Bowls.  Meanwhile, Conference USA teams have been strong as double-digit Bowl underdogs, as they've gone 12-7 ATS.  The Blue Raiders come into this game off an impressive upset win at Florida Atlantic, 27-17.  And that road victory enabled the Blue Raiders to qualify for a Bowl game.  Middle Tennessee is now 8-0 ATS its last eight when priced from +4 to +11 points.  Even better:  .500 (or better) double-digit underdogs, off a double-digit upset win, have cashed 61% of non-conference games over the last 42 years, including 75% of Bowl games.  Grab the points with Middle Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers Under the total.  These two AFC West division rivals both scored a lot of points in victory last week.  Kansas City tallied 48 at home vs. Las Vegas, while Los Angeles scored 37 at the New York Giants.  But we will look for a much lower scoring game at SoFi Stadium tonight.  Key Stat:  the Chargers have gone UNDER the total 81-33-1 at home vs. division rivals over the last 34 seasons, including 11-2 UNDER if the line was 49+ points; 30-8 UNDER if both went Over the total in their previous game; and 34-14 UNDER as an underdog.  This will be another low-scoring division game for Los Angeles.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild -1.5 goals over Buffalo.  The Wild lost at Vegas, 6-4, on Sunday.  But they were playing their 3rd game in four nights, and were also unrested.  Tonight, they're going to be well-rested, as they haven't played since that Sunday game.  It also was their 2nd straight defeat (both on the road), but Minnesota is a perfect 8-0 off back to back road losses, and 20-7 off back to back losses, generally.  The Sabres did snap their 7-game losing streak with a 4-2 win at Winnipeg on Tuesday.  Unfortunately, the Sabres are also 4-20 away from home off a win.  Take Minnesota -1.5 goals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Drake Bulldogs minus the points over Jackson State.  Last season, the Bulldogs opened their campaign with 18 straight wins, and also covered their first 13.  This season, the Bulldogs covered their first lined game, on November 14, vs. South Dakota.  But they've gone 0-8 ATS since (4-4 straight-up).  Tonight, they're laying double-digits to Jackson St., who will be playing its 3rd straight game in in the State of Iowa.  Jackson State dropped the first two, as they fell by 10 points each to Northern Iowa and Iowa State.  We'll lay the points, as we note that Drake is 10-3 ATS at home when favored by 9 or more vs. non-conference foes off back to back losses.  And the Bulldogs also fall into a 65% ATS system of mine which takes certain double-digit favorites off a SU/ATS loss.  Lay the points with Drake.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Los Angeles.  The Clippers upset the then-number 1-seeded Jazz in last year's Playoffs, so Utah would like nothing better than to avenge that post-season ouster tonight.  Utah's now won seven in a row, including a 123-98 blowout of Washington on Saturday.  We played on the Jazz in that game, and will roll with Utah again tonight.  The Jazz are 94-60-5 ATS at home vs. winning opponents, when rested, and off a win by 12+ points.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Denver.   The Nuggets won at Minnesota earlier this season, 93-91, as a 1.5-point underdog.  And that extended the success of the road team in this series to 44-10 ATS.  We'll look for that series trend to continue tonight, and take the points with a T-Wolves team which was buoyed by the return of D'Angelo Russell (after a 3-game absence) on Sunday night.  Minnesota was a 3-point underdog in that game at Portland, and upset the Blazers, 116-111.  And the T-Wolves are now 9-3 ATS their last 12 games with Russell in the lineup.  Take Minnesota + the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Portland.  These two teams met here last season, and the Ducks won, 80-41, as a 24.5-point favorite.  Oregon did lose at Pac-12 rival, Stanford, 72-69, on Sunday, which was its second straight loss, overall.  But the Ducks are 8-0 ATS their last eight home games vs non-conference foes, if the Ducks were off back to back losses.  Take the Ducks minus the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Lipscomb.  Both teams enter tonight's game on losing streaks.  The Bisons have dropped 4 straight, while the Seminoles have lost their last three (and also failed to cover their last four).  If there is a silver lining for Florida State, it's that its last two losses were narrow.  It lost by a single point to South Carolina this past Sunday, 66-65, as a 6.5-point favorite.  And it fell by 3 to Syracuse on the previous weekend.  Over the last 27 years, Florida State's gone 9-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 10 points off back to back losses.  And it's also been terrific off 3+ losses, as it's gone 41-20 ATS, overall.  We'll lay the points with Florida State, as it falls into a super 56-13 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset losses.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ole Miss Rebels minus the points over Middle Tennessee St.  The Rebels were stunned by Western Kentucky, 71-48, on Saturday, as a 5.5-point favorite, while Middle Tennessee St. won (and covered) at Tennessee-Martin.  We'll lay the points with Ole Miss, as NCAA teams off 20-point (or worse) upset losses to non-conference foes, have bounced back to cover 64.5% of the time since 1990 when matched up against another non-conference foe off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  Ole Miss is 22-9 ATS at home off an upset loss.  Lay the points with the Rebels.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  The Hawks will look to bounce back off their home upset loss to the Houston Rockets, 132-126, as a 9.5-point favorite.  And that was Atlanta's 2nd straight upset defeat.  But rested road favorites are a solid 65-33 ATS off back to back upset defeats.  And the Hawks have also gone 77-47-2 ATS as a road favorite of more than 4 points, while Orlando is 0-16-2 ATS at home vs. foes off back to back losses, if the Magic weren't laying 3+ points.  Take the Hawks.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights + the points over Fairfield.  The Stags are on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak and have been installed as a big road favorite at Fairleigh Dickinson.  We'll fade Fairfield, as it's 10-23 ATS off 3 ATS wins (and 1-9 ATS off 4 ATS wins).  Take Fairleigh Dickinson + the points.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over Cal Davis.  Oregon State was blown out by 25 points here, at home, by Arizona in its last game (its 3rd straight loss by double-digits).  And that was also OSU's 3rd straight ATS loss.  We'll lay the points with the Beavers, as they fall into a 99-46 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 3 SU/ATS losses.  Additionally, Pac-12 teams off back to back losses have gone 81-55-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes, including 38-18 ATS off a loss by more than 10 points.  Take Oregon State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Alabama.  The Tigers have generally been a very strong point spread team under coach Penny Hardaway, but they're 0-4 ATS over their last four games.  The good news for Memphis here, as a home underdog, is that it's 44-26-2 ATS under Coach Hardaway when not laying double-digits, including 3-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.  And Memphis has also cashed 65 percent over the last 32 years off 4+ ATS defeats.  Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide has covered just 5 of 17 as a non-conference road favorite.  Take the Tigers + the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Iowa Panthers minus the points over Jackson State.  We played on the Tigers +19 over Iowa State on Sunday, and got the $$$ when they lost by just 10, 47-37, in a very low scoring game.  Unfortunately for Jackson St., underdogs haven't fared well following a game where they covered the spread, but mustered 37 or less points, as they've cashed just 27% over the last 32 years.  Even worse:  the Tigers have covered just 5 of their last 15 when getting 12+ points, while the Panthers are 19-8-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite, including 11-2 ATS against foes off double-digit losses.  Take Northern Iowa to blow out Jackson State.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Detroit Red Wings.  Detroit has dropped three straight games -- all in blowout fashion -- as it lost to Nasville (5-2), St Louis (6-2) and Colorado (7-3).  Some teams react well off losses, but not Detroit.  It's 20-53 off back to back losses (and 16-36 off 3+ losses), including 4-16 off back to back losses by 2+ goals.  And it's 11-41 (minus 22.1 net games on the moneyline) off a blowout loss by more than 2 goals.  New York comes into tonight off a big win over New Jersey (which was our Division Game of the Month), and it's 35-24 (+7.2 net games) off a division win.  Take the Islanders.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over the Golden State Warriors.  Last night, Golden State went into Indiana and defeated the Pacers, 102-100.  But the Warriors didn't cover the point spread, and that extended its ATS losing streak to three games.  We'll fade Steph Curry & Co. tonight at Madison Square Garden, as the Warriors have covered just 3 of 17 off a win the previous day, if they were matched up against an opponent with a win percentage greater than .400 (and 0 of 7 as a favorite).  Grab the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Los Angeles Kings.  The Lightning had a five game win streak going into their last contest on Saturday.  It was a win streak that included victories over the Maple Leafs, Bruins, and Blues.  And the strange thing wasn't that their streak came to an end last weekend -- all good things end, if even temporarily.  What was strange was that is was the Ottawa Senators who did the deed -- and they did by way of a 4-0 shutout despite the fact that the Bolts' defense limited the Sens to only 22 shots.  Normal #1 goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy -- considered by some to be the best in the world -- took a seat on Saturday as back-up Brian Elliott got the call between the pipes.  As he sometimes does, Elliott threw in a clunker (three goals allowed in those 22 shots).  Back home tonight to face the Kings, the Bolts will certainly bring their go-to netminder back on the ice as they attempt to keep pace with the Leafs and Panthers.  They are 8-0 in the last eight meetings with the Kings overall and 5-0 in the last five here at home.  And they're 4-0 off a shutout loss, and 24-4 after scoring less than 2 goals in their previous game.  Take Tampa.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Ottawa Senators.  The Panthers have lost just once at home this season (vs. Seattle, on Nov. 27), and will look to improve to 15-1 at home tonight vs. the Senators.  Ottawa shut out the Lightning, 4-0, in its previous game.  Unfortunately, the Senators are just 3-17 off a win by more than 2 goals.  Take Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Phoenix.  Devin Booker (23.2 ppg) was injured in Phoenix's win over Golden State, on November 30.  Since that game, the Suns have gone 3-1 without their scoring leader, but three of those games -- all wins -- were at home; the Suns lost their lone road game without Booker.  That doesn't bode well for tonight's game, in Los Angeles.  Admittedly, the Clippers are dealing with their own injury issues (Kawhi Leonard, Paul George).  But that hasn't stopped L.A. from entering tonight on a 3-game win streak.  We'll take the points with the home underdog Clippers, as Los Angeles is 16-10 its last 26 as an underdog, and also 8-3 its last 11 as a home dog.  And it's also won 13 straight regular season home games vs. the Suns, and is 9-0 ATS the last nine!  Take Los Angeles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals UNDER the total.  After giving up 28, 31 and 36 its three previous games, the Rams' defense surrendered just seven last week to the Jaguars.  And L.A.'s game went 'under' the total.  I look for another supreme effort by the Rams' stop unit on Monday, as it will be looking to redeem itself after giving up 37 points to the Cardinals when the two teams met in October.  The last three times the Rams gave up more than 28 points to a division foe in the season's first meeting, it rebounded to hold that foe to 10, 12, and 12 points in the rematch.  Seventeen of the last 27 meetings between these two NFC West division teams have gone 'under' the total, and we'll look for a relatively low scoring game on Monday.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Memphis.  Philly comes into this game off an impressive upset win over Golden State, which moved its record to 15-12, and has been installed as a road favorite tonight against the 16-11 Grizzlies.  The 76ers are 22-6 straight-up, and 17-9-2 ATS when favored on the road, including 9-3 ATS vs. Western Conference foes.  And road favorites of -3 (or more) points, have cashed 65% vs. non-conference foes, with a better W/L record, over the last 32 years.  Take Philly minus the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Cleveland State.  The Cowboys will welcome the Vikings to Stillwater this evening, and will look to bounce back off their upset loss here to Xavier their last time on the court.  Oklahoma State was favored by 3.5 vs. Xavier, but lost, 77-71, which lowered their record to 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS.  The good news for Oklahoma State tonight is that Big 12 Conference teams have cashed 62.3% since 1990 as home favorites of more than 9 points in non-conference games, after failing to cover the spread by 9+ points in their previous game.  And, even better, the Cowboys are 43-14-3 ATS as a home, or neutral court favorite in non-conference games, if they owned a losing ATS record.  Take the Cowboys minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Celtics return home after a 1-4 west coast trip which saw them drop games to Utah, Phoenix, the Lakers and the Clippers.  Tonight, they'll host Milwaukee for the 2nd time this season.  And Boston defeated the Bucks in the first go-round, 122-113, as a 5.5-point favorite.  This game is priced near PK'em, and we'll take the home team, as Boston will be playing with 2 days of rest, while Milwaukee is unrested after winning yesterday in New York.  Over the last four seasons, the Celts have cashed 79% when playing with at 2 more days of rest than their opponent, while Milwaukee has gone 3-10 its last 13 when playing without rest.  Take Boston.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Minnesota Wild.  Heading into their game last night in Los Angeles, the Wild was on quite a roll, having won eight straight games going back to November 24.  During the win streak, Minnesota has out-scored its opponents by 37-16, so it's not a stretch to say that the Wild is the hottest team in the league right now.  Along the way, the Wild has beaten some very good teams including the Maple Leafs, Lightning, and Oilers.  But during this win streak, the Wild has always had at least one day of rest and that will not be the case tonight in Vegas against the Knights.  In five previous cases this season similar to tonight in which it was playing on zero days of rest, Minnesota has gone 2-3.  One of those was here in Vegas on November 11 when the Wild lost to the Knights, 3-2.  The Knights on the other hand are 12-2 in their last 14 when playing exactly two days after their prior game, and they're also 5-2 in the last seven meetings with the Wild.  Take Vegas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over Detroit.  After coming close to victory five times, the Lions finally broke through at their sixth opportunity when they scored on the final play to upend division rival, Minnesota, 29-27.  But off that emotional win, we will fade Detroit on the road this Sunday.  They'll have the tall task of facing a Broncos club which lost, 22-9, last week at Kansas City to fall to 6-6 on the season.  And Denver now sits one game behind 7th-seeded Buffalo for the final playoff berth in the bunched-up AFC Conference.  Towards the end of the season (Game 13 forward), it's been very profitable -- 64% -- to play on .500 (or better) teams at home off a loss, when matched up against losing opponents off an upset win.  Additionally, Denver's cashed 88% at home since 1980 off a loss by more than 7 points, if its opponent was off an upset win.  And road dogs have cashed just 37% off an upset division win at home, when matched up against a non-division foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Lay the points with Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats plus the points over Baylor.  These two teams met in the Sweet 16 round of last year's NCAA Tournament, and Baylor won, 62-51, as a 7.5-point favorite.  We'll take Villanova in this revenge match, as it falls into several of my NCAA revenge systems.  Additionally, Jay Wright's Wildcats are a superb 28-12 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, if they owned a winning record.  Take Villanova.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jackson State Tigers + the points over Iowa State.  The Cyclones upset rival, Iowa, by a whopping 20 points (as a 5-point underdog).  But teams off such blowout upset wins have only covered 44% of non-conference games the past 32 years.  And Iowa State also has been poor as a double-digit favorite in non-conference games off an upset win, as it's covered just 25% of the time.  Take the Tigers + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the William & Mary Tribe + the points over Fairfield.  We'll take the points in this matchup between the Colonial and Metro Atlantic conferences, as the Colonial teams have covered 64.3% of the time.  Even better:  Colonial Atheletic Ass'n teams have gone 39-17 ATS as home underdogs of +4 (or more) points, if they were off 3 SU/ATS losses, and matched up against a foe off back to back wins, including 13-0-1 ATS their last 14 when priced from +4.5 to +8 points.  Take William & Mary + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over Atlanta.  These two teams met in Atlanta on Halloween, and the Panthers were installed as a 2.5-point road underdog.  We played on Carolina in that game, and were rewarded with a 19-13 upset victory.  Carolina dominated the game, as it outyarded the Falcons, 332-213, had more first downs (21-17), and controlled time of possession (35:23 to 24:37).  For today's game, the Panthers will have an advantage of playing with an extra week of rest following its 33-10 upset loss at Miami two weeks ago.  And the Panthers are a super 20-8 ATS in division games off an upset loss.  Even better:  they're 27-9-1 ATS off a double-digit loss, if they weren't getting 3+ points in their current game.  Take Carolina minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Seattle.  The Texans come into this game off a horrible offensive performance, which saw them net just 84 rushing yards and 57 passing yards.  And they scored 0 points.  That was Houston's 2nd straight loss (both at home), so this game will conclude its 3-game home stand.  Over the last 42 years, NFL home teams have done exceedingly well off back to back home losses, as they've cashed 61 percent, including the last seven in a row.  And if our home team lost by more than 23 points in its previous game, then they've gone a perfect 9-0 ATS.  The Seahawks are not deserving to lay this many points on the road.  Seattle is 1-3 SU/ATS since QB Russell Wilson returned from injury, and averaged just 14.5 ppg in those four games.  Seattle has a negative 0.83 scoring margin for the season.  And at Game 5 forward, NFL teams with negative scoring margins of minus 0.25 (or worse) are a horrid 0-16 ATS as road favorites of -7 (or more) points when playing an opponent off a loss by 7+ points.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over Milwaukee.  These two teams have met twice already this season, with the last meeting on November 10 -- also here, at Madison Square Garden.  In that game, the Bucks emerged victorious, 112-100, as a 3.5-point road underdog.  We had a play on Milwaukee in that one, as the Bucks were playing with revenge from a 15-point loss in the season's first meeting.  But here, it's the Knicks playing with revenge, and they're a home underdog rather than a home favorite, so we will grab the points.  Milwaukee is a soft 2-8 ATS as a favorite of 6 or less points vs. revenge-minded foes that were upset in the prior meeting.  And New York is 11-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, if it is also playing with revenge from an upset loss against a .500 (or better) foe.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Boston Bruins.  The Bruins have had an up-and-down season, but have generally followed the form where they have played better off losses and poorly off wins.  Indeed, this season, Boston is 8-2 off a loss, but 4-8 off a win.  On Thursday, Boston upset the Oilers, 3-2, which was also the first time Boston won in an underdog role this season (in five tries).  We'll go against the underdog Bruins tonight, as they're off a win, and will also have to face a Flames club which is 28-15 vs. the Eastern Conference.  Take Calgary.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Carolina Hurricanes.  After dropping 3 in a row (and five of six), the Hurricanes have won three straight coming into this game at Rogers Place.  Unfortunately, the 'Canes are a woeful 38-67 on the road off 3+ wins.  Even worse, the Oilers will be looking to bounce back off their 3-2 loss on Thursday to Boston -- a loss made even more frustrating since the Oilers outshot the Bruins, 43-30, in that game.  But Edmonton is a solid 41-27 (+11 net games on the moneyline) off a loss.  Take Edmonton.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over New Orleans.  After winning six straight games (5-0 ATS) to wind up November, the Aggies have opened December off back to back losses to Saint Mary's and BYU.  But we'll lay the points with Utah St. tonight, as it falls into a 70.7% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Moreover, the Aggies are a reliable 31-10 ATS when laying more than 8 points vs. a foe off a loss, and they're a perfect 9-0 ATS off back to back losses, when laying more than 12 points.  Take Utah State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Cleveland.  The Kings have played very well since Luke Walton was fired, and Alvin Gentry hired as interim head coach.  The Kings have gone 5-4 under Gentry, compared to 6-11 under Walton.  Last night, though, Sacramento suffered a most difficult defeat.  It fell by 1 point at Charlotte when De'Aaron Fox missed two free throws with 2.4 seconds left -- and Fox (who led all scorers with 31 points) is a 74% free throw shooter!  Off that defeat, we'll take Sacramento to rebound tonight, as it's 27-12 ATS as a road underdog off a road loss, including 11-1 ATS when priced from +6 to +9.5 points.  Take the Kings + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs + the points over Virginia Commonwealth.  The Monarchs will seek their 3rd straight win (and 4th straight cover) tonight when then welcome the Rams to Chartway Arena.  Old Dominion falls into a 95-43-2 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Additionally, home dogs (or PK) off back to back double-digit wins away from home have gone 25-6 ATS.  Take Old Dominion + the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Elon Phoenix + the points over North Carolina.  The Tar Heels have won their last three games, and have covered their last two.  But they're a wallet-busting 0-8-1 ATS off 3+ wins, and they're also an awful 3-13 ATS their last 16 when laying more than 9 points.  Meanwhile, Elon is a powerful 28-8 ATS as a road dog of more than 5 points when playing an opponent off back to back wins, including 12-0 ATS its last 12 when catching double digits.  Take Elon + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the New Jersey Devils.  The Islanders have tried seven times, but despite coming close, they have yet to win a game in their new home venue.  Perhaps tonight will be the night that the Isles will finally break through at the beautiful UBS Arena.  It would certainly seem fitting, as the Devils are a team that the Isles have dominated at home recently, taking 13 of the last 16 meetings in New York going back to March of 2014.  The Devils played last night and used #1 net-minder Mackenzie Blackwood and so with the injury to second-string Jonathan Bernier (IR - hip), the visitors will go with the 21-year-old rookie goalie who was just called up from the Minors -- Akira Schmid -- to make his NHL debut.  This will be a revenge game for the Isles, as the Devils shut them out in their only other meeting this season back on November 11 despite New York out-shooting New Jersey by 42-34.  New Jersey is 1-5 in its last six games as a road underdog.  Take the Islanders.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Washington Wizards.  Utah comes into this game off six straight wins, and has won those by an average of 17.67 ppg.  I won't step in front of this freight train, as the Jazz don't have letdowns off wins.  They're 64-41-1 ATS off a win, including 31-14 ATS vs. teams from the Eastern conference.  And, even more impressive is the fact they're 46-25-1 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, when not laying 10+ points.  The Jazz are 9-2 SU and 7-3-1 ATS their last 11 vs. the Wizards, including 4-1 SU/ATS here, in Washington.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Chicago Blackhawks.  The Leafs were my choice to win this year's Stanley Cup (at 7-1 odds), and are in a tight battle with Florida and Tampa Bay for the #1 spot in the Atlantic Division.  Tonight, goalie Petr Mrazek will make his return to the ice after being sidelined in late October.  He'll face a Blackhawks team coming off a 2-0 shutout win over Montreal.  Unfortunately for the Hawks, they're 0-6 their last 6 off a shutout win.  Take Toronto.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Samford Bulldogs minus the points over Alabama A&M.  Last year, Alabama A&M came into the Pete Hanna Center, and upset Samford, 78-76, as a 7-point road underdog.  But we'll take the revenge-minded home team this evening, as it falls into a 104-49 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Take Samford minus the points.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Saint Louis Billikens minus the points over Boston College.  The Eagles will look for their second straight upset win after shocking Notre Dame, 73-57, as a 4.5-point home dog.  But the Billikens will prove to be a tough foe today, as it will be looking to bounce back from a pair of upset losses.  Saint Louis doesn't lose many home games, and especially not back to back home games.  But that's what happened earlier this past week, as UAB and Belmont came into Chaifetz Arena, and exited with wins.  But the Billikens are 49-31-2 ATS at home off back to back losses, while Boston College is 1-8 ATS its last nine off an upset win.  Lay the points with St. Louis.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Wisconsin.  This is a great matchup in Columbus between the red-hot 8-1 Badgers, who have won and covered six straight, and the 7-2 Buckeyes.  We'll lay the points with Ohio State, as the Buckeyes fall into a terrific 385-242 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain winning teams favored over other winning teams.  Also, Wisconsin is an awful 24-50 ATS on the road vs. conference foes with an ATS win pct. less than .563, if the Badgers were getting less than 13 points.  And the Buckeyes are a fantastic 27-9 ATS off back to back double-digit wins, when matched against an opponent off a point spread cover.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 am, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Auburn.  This game will be played at State Farm Arena, in Atlanta, Georgia, in the Holiday Hoopsgiving Classic.  Both teams will be short-handed, as 18th-ranked Auburn will be without its head coach, Bruce Pearl, who will serve a 2-game suspension handed down by the NCAA, while Fred Hoiberg's 'Huskers will be without a couple of players due to the flu.  In its last game, the 'Huskers were blown out, 102-67, by Michigan.  But we'll take the 'Huskers + the points this morning, as Auburn is a horrid 15-45 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes that failed to cover the spread by 8+ points in their previous game, if Auburn wasn't getting 3+ points in the current game.  Take Nebraska + the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers minus 1.5 goals over the Arizona Coyotes.  Aleksander Barkov left Florida's last game due to an undisclosed injury (though it was unrelated to his knee injury which sidelined him for eight games).  But he practiced yesterday, and looks to be good-to-go tonight.  Also, left wing Anthony Duclair has been upgraded to 'probable' for tonight.  In net will be Sergei Bobrovsky for Florida (11-1-2, 2.41 GAA) and Scott Wedgewood for Arizona (3-5-1, 2.89 GAA).  Arizona has scored 2 goals or less in seven of its last eight games, while Florida has scored 3 goals or more in eight of its last 10.  Florida did lose its last game, 4-3, but is 42-20 after surrendering 4+ goals.  And of the Coyotes' 20 losses this season, only five have been by just a single goal.  There's just too much firepower on the Florida side.  The Panthers rank 2nd (behind Colorado) with 3.80 goals per game.  And when Arizona has played the 8 teams ranked among the upper 25% in goals scored per game (at least 3.3 per game), Arizona has gone 1-9.  And zero of its nine losses were by a single goal (the average loss was 5.11 to 1.89).  Take Florida minus 1.5 goals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Cleveland's been the league's best point spread team this season, as it's covered nine straight heading into tonight, and is 20-6 ATS, overall.  And it's also covering the spread by an average of 7.59 ppg.  To put this extreme success into perspective, consider that never in the past 32 seasons (which is as far back as my database goes) has a team covered the spread by more than 6.76 ppg at Game 27 forward!  So, it's safe to say that the Cavs will come back down to Earth.  If, for no other reason than that the oddsmakers will (and already have) made adjustments to their number.  In that regard, we have this game tonight priced near PK'em.  The value is clearly on the side of the T-Wolves, who are 5-3 ATS their last eight home games, and have covered against the likes of Phoenix, Sacramento, Miami, San Antonio and Memphis.  It's been 20 games since the last time the Cavaliers were getting this much respect on the road by the oddsmakers.  But even when have been priced as a small underdog, or a favorite on the road, they've not done well, as they've gone 8-19 ATS their last 27.  Take the Timberwolves at home tonight to blow out Cleveland.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Houston Rockets.  Kudos to Houston.  Like Lazarus, it's risen from the dead, and currently rides a seven-game win streak (which followed a 15-game losing streak).  Unfortunately, tonight's opponent is the Milwaukee Bucks, who were upset by Miami, 113-104, as a 6-point favorite, in their last game.  But the Bucks are an awesome 18-5 ATS after failing to cover their previous game by more than 14 points, when rested, and playing an opponent off a win (including a perfect 8-0 ATS when laying 8+ points).  Take the Bucks.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder come into tonight's game off an upset win at Toronto (their 2nd straight win), and are 8-16 on the season.  Meanwhile, Frank Vogel's Lakers were the preseason favorite to win the Western Conference, yet are floundering at 13-13.  Player absences and trying to integrate a bunch of new team members certainly has much to do with it.  But so does a lackadaisical attitude on the court.  Indeed, Vogel lamented after their loss to Memphis on Thursday that his team was too 'casual.'  However, there are several reasons to believe that won't be the case tonight, and that the Lakers will put forward a supreme effort.  First and foremost is the fact that the Thunder have defeated L.A. not once this season, but twice.  And in each game, the Lakers led by 19+ points before taking the pedal off the metal to allow an OKC comeback.  Then, the 2nd reason is that the Lakers were upset by Memphis last night.  For technical support, consider that the Lakers are 50-28 ATS as revenge-minded road favorites, including 13-1 ATS if their opponent was off an upset win.  Even better:  the Thunder are 8-28 SU and 14-22 ATS their last 36 home games vs. .500 (or better) opposition, including 0-9 ATS vs. foes playing with revenge, and also 0-8 ATS if OKC was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Los Angeles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Murray State.  The Racers are 7-1 this season, but have largely played a cupcake schedule.  Indeed, this will be the first time this season that Murray has played a superior team, and been installed as an underdog.  Unfortunately, the Racers are 0-9 SU and 3-5-1 ATS their last nine as a dog.  And they're 4-44 SU and 17-29-2 ATS when getting 5+ points.  Memphis returns home after a 2-game road trip which saw it go 0-2 at SEC Conference schools, Georgia and Mississippi.  The good news for Penny Hardaway's men is that they're undefeated at home this season, and have won 11 straight (7-4 ATS) since last Christmas.  Even better:  Memphis is a reliable 37-15-2 ATS off back to back losses, including 13-2-2 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  With the Racers in off victories over Campbellsville and Middle Tennessee St., we'll lay the points with Memphis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over Carolina.  Calgary dropped its last two games -- both on the road -- but is back home tonight to face a Hurricanes team off back-to-back wins.  The Flames' previous game was particularly irksome to head coach Darryl Sutter.  Calgary gave up four goals in the final 30 minutes of the game, so Sutter expressed much displeasure afterwards, and said his team has "got to be better."  I expect his message will be received loud and clear, and that his team will come out strong tonight.  Calgary is 28-14 its last 42 vs. foes from the Eastern Conference, and 33-20 after allowing more than 3 goals in its previous game.  Meanwhile, Carolina is a poor 50-72 off back to back wins by 2+ goals.  Take the Flames.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the St. John's Red Storm minus the points over Monmouth.  The Hawks are red-hot, and have won and covered each of their last seven games.  But they're installed as a big road underdog tonight.  And road underdogs of +10 (or less) points have cashed just 38% of non-conference games over the last 32 years, if they were off 7+ wins, and 3+ covers.  That doesn't bode well for Monmouth.  Nor does the fact that St. John's is a solid 20-4 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes with a better record, if the Johnnies weren't favored by 11+ points.  Take St. John's.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Vikes lost their last two games to fall to 5-7 on the season, but each of those two was on the road.  Tonight, Minnesota is back home, and home favorites have gone 80-53 ATS in weekday games if they played their two previous games on the road.  Even better:  the Steelers upset their biggest rival (Baltimore) last Sunday, and are now 6-5-1 on the season.  Unfortunately, winning teams have cashed 0 of 8 as underdogs of less than 6 points in Thursday games, if they were matched up against a losing opponent.  Minnesota is also 12-0-1 ATS at home off a loss when matched up against .375 (or better) non-division foes.  Lay the points with the Vikings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over the Utah Jazz.  Quin Snyder's men blew out the Sixers, 120-85, in Salt Lake City earlier this season.  We'll take Philly tonight in the rematch, as the 76ers are 11-0-1 ATS their last 12 home games when playing with revenge vs. Western Conference teams, if Philly owned a worse record.  And NBA revenge-minded home teams have cashed 66% since 1990 when playing a non-conference foe off a SU win.  Take Philly.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the William & Mary Tribe minus the points over Hampton.  The Tribe is 0-9 on the season vs. Division 1 foes (but did defeat Mary Baldwin, 87-50), but they were favored in just one of those nine Division 1 games.  And that was as a 2-point favorite vs. American.  Tonight, they'll step down-in-class, and host the Pirates, who are 3-6 on the season (but have also played a much easier schedule than has William & Mary).  We'll lay the points with William & Mary, as we note that, since 1990, teams installed as a favorite (or PK) have cashed 63.9% at Game 8 forward, if their win percentage was .100 (or worse).  Look for William & Mary to blow out Hampton.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Golden State.  The Blazers will be short-handed tonight, as McCollum and Lillard will be in street clothes.  But we'll still take the underdog, as they're playing with revenge from a 118-103 loss less than two weeks ago, and getting double-digits.  Golden State is a horrible 6-34-2 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe, if the Warriors were off a point spread win, and won by 15 or less points in the previous meeting.  Take Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Idaho St. Bengals + the points over California.  The Bengals have lost 7 straight games, including back to back home upset losses to Portland St and Northern Arizona last week.  We'll look for Idaho State to bounce back off those upset defeats, as double-digit road dogs have cashed 60% over the last 32 years off back to back home upset losses, if their opponent was off a point spread win.  Take the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over Fresno State.  This is a great match-up tonight between the 9-0 Dons and 9-1 Bulldogs.  The Bulldogs, though, have played an exceptionally easy schedule, and San Francisco will be its toughest foe to date.  Fresno also has been generally poor vs. top-level clubs, as it's 33-62-3 ATS vs. .785 (or better) opponents, including 23-53-1 ATS when not getting more than 12 points.  Take San Francisco.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Towson.  The Buckeyes return home tonight after dispatching Penn State, 76-64, in Happy Valley, on Sunday.  That triumph followed an upset of #1-ranked Duke, so the Buckeyes avoided a letdown, which speaks volumes for this team.  We'll lay the points tonight with Ohio State, as it's 21-5 ATS as a favorite of -7 (or more) points off back to back wins, if matched up against a foe off an ATS win.  Take the Buckeyes.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech minus the points over Cornell.  The Hokies were upset, 80-61, by fellow ACC member, Wake Forest, on Saturday.  Tonight, the Hokies will welcome Cornell to Blacksburg, and ACC favorites of -8 (or more) points are 79% ATS since 1990 off a SU/ATS loss, if they failed to cover by 9+ points in their previous game, and are now matched up against a .714 (or better) foe.  Take the Hokies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Holy Cross Crusaders + the points over Fairfield.  The Stags come into this game off back to back upset road wins, and have been installed as a double-digit home favorite vs. the Crusaders, who are on a 3-game losing streak.  We'll fade Fairfield, as favorites of more than 8 points have covered just 33.8% since 1990 off back to back upset road wins, if their opponent was off back to back losses.  Take Holy Cross + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on Lipscomb + the points over Miami-Florida.  The Bisons are 5-4, but were blown out by 21 points by Chattanooga, on Sunday.  That defeat has triggered one of my favorite systems, which is 422-231 ATS since 1990.  Additionally, Miami is 2-8-1 ATS its last 11 (and 28-47-1 ATS its last 76) as a favorite, while Lipscomb is 19-9-1 ATS as a road underdog.  Take Lipscomb + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over North Florida.  It doesn't happen often that a 24-point home favorite loses by 15 points.  But that is exactly what the 14th-ranked Gators did on Monday night.  I expect Florida to be in an ornery mood tonight, and to take out their frustration on the Ospreys.  Since 2009, teams off upset losses as favorites of 20+ points, have bounced back to cover the spread 71% of the time.  Take the Gators.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on NC-Asheville + the points over Chattanooga.  These two teams met in Chattanooga on Nov. 14, and the Mocs blew out the Bulldogs, 75-45.  But Asheville has gone 4-0 ATS since that defeat, and I look for it to win its 5th straight ATS tonight.  Indeed, over the last 32 years, winning teams, playing with revenge from a 25-point (or worse) defeat, have covered 61.1% at home if they were off back to back wins, and also on a 3-game (or better) ATS win streak.  Take NC-Asheville.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Kentucky Colonels + the points over USC.  The Trojans opened their Pac-12 Conference schedule with big wins last week against Utah and Washington State, but will revert to a non-conference schedule for the next 15 days.  Tonight, the undefeated Trojans (8-0) will welcome the Colonels to the Galen Center, and have been installed as a big double-digit favorite.  Eastern Kentucky is 10-3 its last 13 as a road underdog, and it also falls into a 71.9% ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs vs. foes off wins.  Meanwhile, USC is a poor 2-10 ATS off 8 (or more) straight wins.  Take Eastern Kentucky + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over Minnesota.  The Oilers were blasted, 5-1, here at home by Los Angeles on Sunday, which followed a 4-3 loss to the Kraken, on Friday.  That blowout loss to the Kings particularly rankled their coach, Dave Tippett, who claimed his team wasn't playing hard or fast enough.  The good news is that the Oilers typically bounce back from poor games, as they're 29-12 off a loss by 2+ goals, and 22-8 after surrendering more than 4 goals.  Edmonton is also 15-7 off back to back losses.  Take the Oilers on Tuesday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Dallas.  The Nets have been off for the last two days following their home upset loss to the Chicago Bulls.  Brooklyn's been installed as road favorite tonight, and we'll lay the points with the well-rested Nets.  Indeed, since 1990, .500 (or better) NBA teams with at least two days of rest, off a home loss, have cashed 62.1% as a road favorite (or PK) vs. non-winning opposition.  Take Brooklyn to bounce back tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs minus 1.5 goals over the Columbus Blue Jackets.  These two teams haven't played since what was then called the "qualifying round" in the 2019-2020 playoffs.  The Jackets came away with the upset victory in that one, taking the fifth and final game here in Toronto back on August 9, 2020, by a 3-0 margin.  That's the last time Columbus' hockey team stepped foot in the Scotiabank Arena and this version appears to be quite inferior than that one of just a little more than a year ago.  The Leafs had their recent five-game win streak snapped, losing on back-to-back nights to the Wild (in OT) and Jets.  The latter loss two days ago was with Toronto's back-up goalie, rookie Joseph Woll, in net.  Tonight, they'll be back to using regular #1 Jack Campbell.  The veteran net-minder is leading the league in Wins (13), GAA (1.78), and saves PCT (.942) so the Leafs will no doubt be glad to have him back on the ice.  The Blue Jackets are 19-40 in their last 59 games vs. teams with a winning record and 11-26 in their last 37 following a win.  Take Toronto minus 1.5 goals.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Ottawa Senators.  The Isles were hit hard by COVID-19, and have lost 11 straight games in large part due to the absences forced by the protocols.  But everyone other than Casey Cizikas is back in the fold now, so the team should soon start to look like the one which reached the Playoff semifinals last season.  This is Ottawa's second game in as many nights, as it played at New Jersey yesterday.  And it's also its fifth game in seven days, with travel before and after each of the five games.  Take New York.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the William & Mary Tribe + the points over Old Dominion.  This is the 3rd straight road game for the Monarchs, who upset George Mason, in Fairfax, on Saturday.  Old Dominion was an 8.5-point road underdog in that game, but stunned the Patriots, 60-50.  We'll fade Old Dominion tonight, as it's an awful 22-47 ATS after a double-digit win away from home, if it wasn't favored by more than 13 points in its current game.  And it's 23-37 ATS off an upset win.  Even worse:  ODU is 1-9 ATS its last 10 vs. William & Mary, including 0-5 ATS on the road.  Take William & Mary + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over James Madison.  The Dukes are 7-2, but have yet to defeat a top-150 team.  Instead, their victories have come against Carlow, Old Dominion, George Mason, Eastern Mennonite, Wright State, and Florida Atlantic.  In contrast, the Cavaliers have already played top-tier teams like Houston, Providence, and Iowa, as well as mid-tier teams like Pittsburgh and Georgia.  The Dukes are a soft 5-24 SU and 10-19 ATS as a home dog of more than 5 points, while Virginia is 57-28 ATS on the road, including 24-9 ATS vs. foes with winning SU/ATS records.  Lay the points with Tony Bennett's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vancouver Canucks over the Los Angeles Kings.  The Canucks cleaned house by firing their general manager and coach after Saturday's 4-1 home loss to Pittsburgh, and hired the well-traveled Bruce Boudreau (Capitals, Wild, Ducks) to be behind the bench.  In 14 seasons as head coach, Boudreau's teams have won eight division titles, but he's never got a team to the Stanley Cup finals.  Still, I like the move to replace Travis Green at this time, given Vancouver's horrible start to the season, as well as the fact that Boudreau's first five games will all be at home.  We'll take the Canucks in this game, as the Kings played at Edmonton last night, and will turn to backup Cal Petersen to be between the pipes.  Vancouver is 21-14 (+9.8 games on the moneyline) off a home loss, and 8-3 off a blowout home loss by more than two goals.  Take the Canucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies minus the points over New Mexico.  Richard Pitino's Lobos went into Las Cruces in their last game, and upset the Aggies, 101-94, as 10.5-point road underdogs.  This rematch will be played at home, in Albuquerque, and the Lobos have been installed as a home underdog.  We'll take the revenge-minded road team, and lay the points, as home underdogs -- like New Mexico -- that are playing back to back games against the same opponent -- have covered just 38% over the last 32 years vs. foes that have winning SU/ATS records (New Mexico State is 5-3 SU and 4-3 ATS).  Also, the Aggies will have coach Chris Jans back on the sidelines for this one, as he missed that earlier game due to COVID-19 protocols.  The Lobos are a poor 9-20 ATS as underdogs off an upset win, including 1-8 ATS if they were an underdog of more than 4 points in that upset win.  Take New Mexico State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over New England.  Bill Belichick's men are currently riding a 6-game SU/ATS win streak, and have scored an average of 35.16 ppg (after averaging 20.83 ppg over their first 6 games).  Meanwhile, the Bills are 3-3 over their previous six games, and have seen their offensive output drop from 34.4 ppg prior to those six games to 25.66 ppg over their last 6 outings.  But I love Buffalo to bounce back on this Monday.  Indeed, the Bills won both meetings vs. New England last season, and scored 38 and 24 points in those two games.  And NFL teams (like New England) off 3 SU/ATS wins by 20+ points have covered just 1 of 14 regular season road games vs. winning opposition.  Take Buffalo minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New Jersey Devils over the Ottawa Senators.  The Devils gave up a season-high eight goals in their lopsided loss to the Jets in Winnipeg on Friday.  But since it was the second half of back-to-back road games, New Jersey played back-up goalie Jonathan Bernier in that one.  Bernier wasn't very good to say the least and the Devils pulled him for their #1 net-minder Mackenzie Blackwood.  He wasn't much better than Bernier but then again Blackwood wasn't ready to play and was clearly unprepared to enter the sinking ship.  Blackwood should be rested and ready to go against a Senators team that has won just six times in 22 games this season.  Not only has Ottawa won two straight coming into the Meadowlands tonight -- its first two-game win streak of the season -- but they've come against two of the better teams in the league in the Avs (6-5) and Hurricanes (3-2).  The Devils are 4-1 in the last five meetings with the Senators, while Ottawa is 1-3 in the last four trips here going back to October 2017.  And the Senators are also 0-7 their last seven after scoring more than 5 goals in their previous game.  Take New Jersey.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.