Sports Picks & Predictions

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The first playoff game at Atlanta's Sun Trust Park could also be the last game of their season.  The Braves are down 2-0 in this series and have yet to score a run thanks to some pretty dominant Dodger pitching.  But the home crowd should be amped up tonight so expect the young stars of Atlanta's lineup to respond accordingly.  It may be LHP Sean Newcomb's first-ever post-season start (he pitched two scoreless innings of relief in game one) but at age 25 and in his second season, he's actually the veteran of this match-up.  24-year-old RH Walker Buehler also pitches in his first MLB playoff game for the Dodgers.  One thing Newcomb can use as motivation is the fact that in his last start against this Dodger club -- back on July 29 -- he almost no-hit them, coming within one out from doing so in a dominant performance that resulted in a 4-1 Braves win.  That performance was right here in Atlanta and no doubt Newcomb will take a repeat of that tonight.  Take the Braves.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Brewers have taken a commanding 2-0 lead in this NLDS and need just one win in the next three games to advance.  But the Rockies can take some satisfaction in that each of the first two games was close , and both could have easily gone their way.  But the main reason for them to be optimistic is the fact that Games 3 and 4 here at home will feature their #1 and #2 starters while the Brewers are much further down in their rotation right now.  This afternoon it will be RH German Marquez who broke through in 2018 with a 14-11 record, 3.77 ERA and 230 strikeouts in 196 innings (a 10.7 K rate).  Sure, Marquez did most of his best work on the road this season, but that's to be expected.  And you won't see it in his overall home numbers, but Marquez finished the season absolutely loving Coors Field.  In his last four starts here, Marquez allowed just three earned runs in 27 2/3 innings.  And, more importantly for today, the Rockies went 4-0 in those starts (by an astounding combined score of 42-5).  Finally, Colorado's 40-20 (+10 games on the money line) as a home favorite this season.  Take Colorado. MLB Game of the Week! As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our NFL Total of the Month is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles Chargers/Oakland Raiders game.  This season, the Oakland Raiders' games have averaged 55 points per game (24.25 offense; 30.75 defense), while the Chargers' games have averaged 57.75 points (27.75 offense; 30 defense).  The knee-jerk reaction, then, might be to play the 'over' in this contest, but consider that games with Over/Under lines greater than 41 points, between two teams that each average 22.8 ppg, have gone 'under' the total 194 of 337 games, if one or both of the teams have gone 'over' the total in each of their three previous games, including a perfect 5-0 'under' last season.  The 'under' has gone 24-6-1 the last 31 times the Raiders have visited the Chargers.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore.  The Ravens have won the last five games in this series, but that win streak should end this afternoon.  Indeed, this is a horrid scheduling spot for Baltimore.  Last week, it went into Pittsburgh, and upset its division rival, 26-14, as a 3-point underdog.  Now, it has to play a second straight road game, and also against a division rival.  Unfortunately, NFL teams favored against a division foe are an awful 69-96-5 ATS off an upset win on the road vs. a division foe, including 34-57 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take Cleveland.  NFL Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Liberty.  The Aggies had last week off following their road win at UTEP two weeks ago.  Meanwhile, the Flames are 2-2 this season with an upset win in their opener vs. Old Dominion, and a 52-43 road upset win at the New Mexico Lobos last weekend.  The Flames were a 7-point underdog last week, and one of the things I love to do is go against .500 (or worse) teams in back-to-back road games, if they won as a 7-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, and were playing a rested opponent.  Since 1980, our road teams have cashed just 37%.  Take New Mexico State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners over Rice.  The Roadrunners have yet to cash a ticket in Las Vegas this season, but it's not because they've been playing exceptionally poorly.  Rather, their games were mostly point spread coin-flips that just happened to result in losses.  Indeed, the Roadrunners failed to cover their last four games by 1, 3, 3.5 and 0.5 points (an average of 2 points per game).  So, while some will stay away from the Roadrunners for their lack of point spread success, I'm not concerned.  Meanwhile, the Rice Owls have been installed as a small favorite, even though they were underdogs of +25, +17, +13.5 and +28 points in their four games vs. Division 1 foes this season.  And teams that were favored (or PK) at home vs. conference foes off a win, after being double-digit underdogs in each of their three previous game, have cashed just 37% the past 38 years.  Take the Roadrunners.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Old Dominion.  The Owls lost a heartbreaker last week when Middle Tennessee scored a touchdown (and a subsequent 2-point conversion) on a 4th-and-goal play with less than a minute left in the game.  That lowered the Owls' road record this season to 0-3, but it returns home this weekend, where it is undefeated on the season (with wins over Air Force and Bethune-Cookman).  Here, Florida Atlantic will welcome Old Dominion, which is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road this season, with a negative 15.67 scoring margin, and a negative 15.5 point spread differential.  That doesn't bode well for Old Dominion.  And neither does the fact that Conference USA favorites of -8.5 (or more) points are an awesome 31-10 ATS off an upset loss.  Finally, Florida Atlantic falls into 71-29 and 81-32 ATS systems of mine that go against certain conference foes with a losing record.  Take the Owls.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over UNLV.  Last week, the Lobos were upset, 52-43, at home by the Liberty Flames.  So, they'll look to bounce back on Saturday afternoon in their Mountain West Conference opener.  Since 1980, road underdogs off an upset loss the previous week have covered 67.8% in their conference openers.  Both of these teams are saddled with injuries at the quarterback position.  UNLV, though, should suffer more by losing Armani Rogers, than will New Mexico for its injuries.  The Rebels' top QB has excelled this season, with 857 combined yards and 12 TDs (369 passing yards, 488 rushing yards). He'll be replaced by sophomore Max Gilliam, who doesn't have Rogers' explosive speed to make big plays.  In contrast, New Mexico's Sheriron Jones might be the Lobos' 3rd string QB, but he was great last week in relief.  The Lobos were down 42-10 at the half to Liberty, but he threw for 312 yards and four TDs in slightly more than 30 minutes of action to bring the Lobos back in an eventual 9-point loss.  New Mexico has also cashed 75% over the last 38 years off an upset home loss.  Take the Lobos.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over LSU.  I love playing on home underdogs with great defenses.  For the season, Florida has held its opponents to just 14 points per game.  And home underdogs, at Game 6 forward, that have a defense which doesn't give up more than 14 ppg have gone 45-22 ATS vs. undefeated teams.  That's one reason I favor the Gators.  Another is that undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record have cashed just 64 of 159 vs. .666 (or better) foes.  Take Florida.  NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks + the points over Akron.  The Red Hawks have covered 12 of 16 conference road games, including a 38-23 blowout win at Bowling Green two weeks ago.  Last Saturday, though, Miami lost a 1-point game, at home, to Western Michigan.  But I love the Red Hawks to bounce back on the road on Saturday, as road teams have cashed 65.3% in Mid American Conference games off a single-digit home loss the previous week.  Take Miami-Ohio + the points.  Underdog Shocker!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Boise State.  The Aztecs have won three straight, and had last weekend off to prepare for this big Mountain West game at Boise State.  Last season, Boise went 7-1 inside the Conference and won the title game.  San Diego State was 6-2, including a 31-14 upset loss, at home.  So, this is a big revenge game for the Aztecs.  Since 1999, rested Mountain West conference teams have cashed 75.8% away from home when playing with revenge vs. conference foes, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when getting 12+ points.  That bodes well for San Diego St.  Also, it's true that Boise has been generally very strong against the spread over the years.  But the reality is that it has beat up on the really bad teams (e.g., 58-35 ATS vs. losing teams), or teams playing poorly (e.g., 51-21 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss), while it has done comparatively worse vs. better teams.  Indeed, Boise has gone 0-12 ATS the last 4 seasons when favored vs. winning teams off a win.  Take the Aztecs.  NCAA Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Maryland.  The Wolves came back from a 17-0 deficit at Northwestern last week, and eked out a 3-point win.  Last week's performance will keep a lot of bettors away from laying double-digits this week with Michigan.  Indeed, the current number, as of this writing, has come down from the opener.  Generally speaking, it's been profitable to back double-digit favorites that failed to cover the spread by 10+ points as a double digit favorite the previous week, if they were now  playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win (which Maryland is).  Since 1980, such double-digit favorites have cashed 57%.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Michigan.  NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Western Michigan.  The Eagles lost a tough game in overtime last week, at home, vs. Northern Illinois.  That lowered EMU's Mid-American Conference record to 0-2 on the season.  But I love the Eagles to bounce back on Saturday, as NCAA Underdogs of +3 or more points, off an upset conference loss, and an 0-2 conference record, have cashed 61% since 1980.  And, although there's nothing wrong with 61%, we can increase our system to 70% if we don't go against any team playing with revenge.  In this series, Eastern Michigan has lost the last four meetings.  The revenger is 13-7 ATS in this series, and the revenger has also cashed 61% of Mid-American Conference games the past 11 years if it was off a home upset loss. Finally, Eastern Michigan falls into 53-15, 84-48 and 54-21 ATS systems that play on certain teams off losses.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Mid American Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincy Bearcats minus the points over Tulane.  The Green Wave shocked the Memphis Tigers, 40-24, last week as a 14.5-point home underdog to move their record to 2-3 on the season.  Unfortunately for Tulane, losing teams rarely pull off two big upsets in a row, and especially not when they're playing on the road against really good teams.  Here, Tulane is tasked with handing the Bearcats their first defeat of the season.  Cincy is 5-0 straight-up (and 4-1 ATS), including wins over UCLA, Miami-Ohio, Ohio U. and UConn.  And, since 1980, underdogs with a losing record have covered the spread just 25% of the time on the road vs. .850 (or better) foes, if they were off an upset win as a 13-point (or greater) underdog.  Take Cincinnati.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Texas.  We played on Oklahoma last week, and were rewarded with a 66-33 victory over Baylor.  And we also played against Texas, and got the cash with Kansas State, which covered as an 8.5-point underdog.  Once again, we will play on Oklahoma and against Texas.  The Sooners are averaging a whopping 48.6 ppg, and fall into a super NCAA regular season 'momentum' system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any single-digit favorite (or PK) off a SU/ATS win, in which they scored 60+ points, if they are playing a at home, or on a neutral field.  Since 1980, this angle has cashed 72%.  Take Oklahoma to blow out the Longhorns.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Illinois.  Illinois has started the season 2-2 straight-up, and 2-2 ATS.  Yet this will be its first road game of the season, as it had the huge benefit of opening with four straight home games.  I don't like playing on road teams this late in the season, and especially not when installed as a favorite and/or they don't have a winning record.  Indeed, since 1980, road favorites, with a .500 (or worse) record, have cashed just 33% of their conference games, if it was Game 5 forward, and also their first road game of the season.  Even worse for Illinois:  it's been an unreliable favorite, priced from -3 to -10.5 points, with an 18-38 ATS record since 2001.  Take Rutgers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Braves have relied on their youth movement all season, but now that they're down 1-0 in the NLDS, and in a quasi must-win situation, they will turn to their most experienced starter to get them back in this series.  Anibal Sanchez may have only been a member of the team for one season, but he is the only one in the current rotation with multiple seasons of playoff experience.  And Sanchez has not only pitched in the post-season, but he's had success there as well.  In seven playoff games (six starts), the 34-year-old RH has posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.  Sanchez thrived on the road this season, going 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 13 starts away from Atlanta vs. just 2-4, with a 3.00 ERA in 12 home appearances.  And Sanchez has been on quite a roll lately, finishing the season with just four runs allowed in his last four starts covering 23 innings.  The Braves are 4-1 in Sanchez's last five road starts vs. teams with a winning record, and they are 10-4 in their last 14 road games vs. teams with a winning home record.  Take Atlanta.  MLB High Roller.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cleveland Indians.  There is no better game one pitching match-up than the one on display this afternoon in Houston.  Between them, RH's Corey Kluber (Indians) and Justin Verlander (Astros) have three Cy Youngs (and finished in the top three on three other occasions), one MVP, and one Rookie of the Year.  We are being treated to this battle of the Giants courtesy of the fact that both of these teams coasted to the post-season and neither had to play a Wild Card game so they are beginning the playoffs with a re-set rotation.  And while nobody would dispute the fact that Kluber is one of the elite pitchers in the game, it's Verlander who has the far-more experienced -- and superior -- post-season resume.  In 22 playoff appearances (all but one being starts), the 35-year-old is 11-6 with a 3.07 ERA (vs. 4-2 and 3.54 eight games for Kluber).  And lest you think the elder Verlander is slowing down, his post-season run with the Champs last season was arguably his best ever (4-1 with a 2.21 ERA in six games -- five starts).  Finally, Verlander hasn't given up an earned run in his last two starts.  And his teams are 14-2 the last three years if he didn't give up 2+ earned runs in either of his two previous starts.  Take the Astros.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Tulsa.  The Cougars exploded for 70 points last week, and have scored an average of 52.25 ppg this season.  As faithful followers know, I love playing on teams that can score.  And home favorites (or PK), off a win in which they scored 50+ points, have gone 572-426-15 ATS since 1980.  Houston is 35-20 ATS off a win, while Tulsa is 35-63 ATS off back to back losses.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Georgia State.  Last week, the Georgia State Panthers upset Louisiana-Monroe, 46-14, as a 5.5-point home underdog.  But that was the first time (in four games) that the Panthers covered the point spread vs. a Division 1 foe this season.  And its upset win has set it up in a negative, 39-103 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road underdogs off upset wins.  Meanwhile, Troy State has won (and covered) each of its last four games, including a 45-21 blowout of Coastal Carolina last Saturday.  Troy St. has cashed 67% since 2001 vs. foes off a win that had a losing ATS record.  And double-digit underdogs, with a losing SU/ATS record, off an upset win, that covered the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game have cashed just 37.9% since 1980.  Take Troy to blow out Georgia State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs have been the biggest surprise so far this season, as they're 3-0, and have scored 38, 42 and 38 points in their first three contests.  KC has also covered the point spread by an average of 9.33 ppg (while Denver has failed to cover by an average of -4 ppg).  But such an offensive stretch of games typically leads to a poor performance.  Indeed, since 1980, teams off back to back SU/ATS wins, in which they scored more than 30 points in each victory, have covered just 79 of 188 games vs. foes off SU/ATS losses, including 0-6 ATS since 2005 on Monday Night Football.  Moreover, the Broncos are 30-15-2 ATS as a home underdog (or PK) since 1981, and also 18-3-1 ATS at home vs. foes with a relative pointspread differential of +8.33 or more points, including 9-0 ATS their last nine when not laying 3 or more points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Seattle/Arizona game.  The Seattle Seahawks have played their last two games 'under' the total, while Arizona's gone 'under' in each of its last three games.  But we will run the other way, and look for a relatively high-scoring game on Sunday.  Indeed, Seattle has gone 'over' the total EIGHT STRAIGHT times off back to back Unders, while Arizona had gone 'over' the total in seven of its last eight (and 16 of its last 21) games after going 'under' in its last three games.  That's one reason, I like the 'over' in this game.  Another is that the 'over' falls into a Totals System of mine which has cashed 114 of 174 since 1980.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies.  The 10 teams who will be playing baseball in October are now settled.  However, in the National League, all five teams are incentivized to win on this final scheduled day of the regular season.  And that's because the Cubs and Brewers are tied for first place in the NL Central, with 94-67 records.  And the Dodgers and Rockies are tied for first place in the NL West, with 90-71 records.  Meanwhile, Atlanta, which has already sewn up first place in the NL East, is tied with both the Dodgers and Rockies (at 90-71) for the 2nd overall seed in the National League Playoffs, and the eventual home field advantage which comes with that seeding.  Thus, this game is very important to the Braves this afternoon.  Atlanta will hand the ball to RHP Kevin Gausman, whose last start was also against these Phillies.  Gausman pitched 6 1-3 innings, and allowed three runs in that game -- an 8-3 Braves victory.  Meanwhile, the Phillies will start Ranger Suarez, who hasn't started a game since August 16, when he gave up 11 hits and 4 runs in 4 innings vs. the Mets -- a 24-4 Mets win.  The Braves have won six of the last seven vs. the Phillies, and 49 of 74 division games (+27 games on the moneyline) overall this season, while Philly has won just seven of its previous 27 games, and is also a poor 25-43 after scoring 3 runs or less in back to back games.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Texans are 0-3 straight-up and ATS this season.  But Indianapolis isn't much better, as it's won just once this season.  And one of the things I love to do is play on winless SU/ATS teams, at Game 4 forward, on the road, as underdogs (or PK) vs. losing teams.  Our winless teams have covered 65.5% since 1980 in this situation, so that bodes very well for Houston on Sunday.  Moreover, Houston lost last week, at home, as a 6.5-point favorite.  And road underdogs (or PK) off an upset home loss, as a 6.5 point (or bigger) favorite, have covered 58% over the last 38 years.  Take Houston. NFL Division Game of the Year. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Buffalo.  Last week, the Bills pulled off the biggest upset in 23 years, as they won outright as a 16.5-point underdog at Minnesota.  The last team to achieve such a victory was Washington, back in 1995, when it upset Dallas, 24-17, as a 17.5-point dog.  But what was most impressive wasn't that Buffalo won, it was that it won by 21 points.  Unfortunately, I don't think it will win back-to-back games.  Indeed, since 1980, teams off upset wins as double-digit road underdogs have gone 56-80 ATS in their next game, including 17-33 ATS if they were playing back-to-back road games.  And the Packers have gone 47-25 ATS at home with Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback, including 14-2 ATS vs. opponents off a road win.  Take Green Bay.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Miami.  The Dolphins have sprinted out to a 3-0 start this season, while New England is lagging behind with a 1-2 record. But I believe the Dolphins will come back down to earth on Sunday. Indeed, since 2002, there have been 15 undefeated teams, with a record of 3-0 or better that have been installed as an underdog of +5 or more points.  Those 15 teams have gone 1-14 straight-up, and 5-9-1 ATS.  Also, the Patriots have gone 8-0 straight-up, and 7-1 ATS since November 2002 when they were off back to back losses. Finally, home teams have cashed 37 of 54 off upset losses on the road, if their opponent was off three SU/ATS wins.  Take New England.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Detroit Lions.  Matt Patricia's Lions upset his former team -- the New England Patriots -- as a 7-point underdog last Sunday night.  However, teams that pull off such big upsets rarely win back to back games in the underdog role.  In fact, since 1980, road underdogs have cashed just 42% off a home underdog outright win as a 7-point (or bigger) dog.  And Detroit's a poor 28-56-3 ATS on the road off a win.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State.  This is a rematch of last year's game, when the Nittany Lions also entered it undefeated, but were handed their first loss, 39-38, by the Buckeyes.  This season, the stakes are just as high, as both teams are unbeaten after four games.  After squeaking by Appalachian State in its opener, Penn State has demolished its last three opponents.  It's won its last three games by a combined 177-40, and has covered the spread by an average of 22.16 ppg.  In contrast, the Buckeyes, who have won their last three games by a combined 141-37, have only had a point spread differential of + 6.5 ppg in their last three.  Unfortunately, for Ohio State, teams playing away from home have gone 0-15 SU/ATS against a revenge-minded foe which scored 122+ points in its two previous games, if our road team didn't score 100+ points in its two previous games.  Even worse for the Buckeyes:  home dogs of +2.5 (or more) points, that average more than 29.5 ppg on offense, off back-to-back wins, have gone 236-164 ATS.  Over the last 3 seasons, Penn State is 13-1 ATS off back-to-back wins, and has covered by an average of 10.66 ppg.  Take the Nittany Lions.  Big 10 Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Middle Tennessee State. The Owls are 2-2 this year, with 2 home wins and 2 road losses. This will be the Owls' 3rd road game of the season. However, in their first two road games they played Oklahoma (currently ranked #6) and Central Florida (currently ranked #13). This road game will be much easier, as Middle Tennessee is unranked, and has nowhere near the talent level of those two other schools. The Owls have been installed as a small favorite in this game. And since November 12, 2016, Florida Atlantic has had a sharp dichotomy in how its performed as a favorite or an underdog. Indeed, the Owls are 14-0 straight-up (9-4-1 ATS) as a favorite, compared to 0-7 straight-up (1-6 ATS) as an underdog. Take the Owls. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over Texas El Paso. On the surface, it might look difficult to play on Texas San Antonio, given that it's 0-4 ATS this season. But the Roadrunners fall into a 65% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses. Meanwhile, UTEP has been the worst team in College Football since last season. It's now lost its last 16 games, straight-up, and is 2-23 SU and 6-17-2 ATS its last 25 lined games. Take the Roadrunners minus the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Florida. Last week, Mississippi State was upset, 28-7, as a double-digit favorite at Kentucky, while Florida won, 47-21, as a 4.5-point favorite at Tennessee. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Gators as a touchdown underdog, given that it covered by more than 21 points, while Mississippi State failed to cover last week by 31 points. However, underdogs of 7 or more points off a cover by 21 or more points have cashed just 38% over the last 30 years vs. opponents off a point spread loss by 21 or more points. That's one reason I favor the Bulldogs. Another is that teams off an upset conference loss by 18 or more points, have covered just 24 of 78 conference games since 1980 vs. foes off a straight-up and against the spread win. This will be a rout. Lay the points with the Bulldogs. SEC Conference Favorite of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles minus the points over Northern Illinois. The Eagles have lost 10 straight games in this series, but have been installed as the favorite. And I love them to finally break through with a win vs. the Huskies, as they fall into a 43-16 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favored teams playing with revenge. Even better: the Eagles have continued to "pay off" in Vegas this season, as they're 3-1 ATS this year, and 20-8 ATS dating back to November 27, 2015 (including 12-2 ATS off a straight-up loss). This will also be the Eagles' first home game after three straight road games. In their only other home game this season, they won 51-17, as a 22.5-point favorite vs. Monmouth. They didn't find the same success away from home, as they went 1-2 SU (but 2-1 ATS). However, I expect them to blow out Northern Illinois, which is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five games away from home. Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Baylor. The Sooners have started this season perfectly, as they're 4-0. But they have failed to cover the point spread for their last three straight games. They'll try to get back into the win column "in Vegas" vs. Baylor this Saturday. Baylor comes into Norman off a 26-7 win over Kansas last week. And we'll lay the points with the Sooners, as undefeated teams, with a 4-0 (or better) record, off three ATS losses, have covered 60% since 1980 vs. foes off a win. Take Oklahoma.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over the Texas Longhorns. Last week, the Longhorns upset TCU, 31-16, as a 2.5-point home underdog. But off that win, we will fade the Longhorns at Kansas State. This will actually be the Longhorns first true road game, played on an opponent's home field, this season. And Texas falls into negative 11-41 and 7-29 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams, off upset wins, playing on the road vs. conference foes. Additionally, Kansas State is an awesome 27-6 ATS in conference games off a loss by 20 or more points. Finally, Big 12 Conference teams have cashed just 42% as road favorites off an upset win since 1980. Take the Wildcats + the points. Big 12 Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus the points over South Alabama. Appy State exploded for 72 points last week, and has covered each of its first three games this season. The Mountaineers are averaging 51.67 points this season, and I love playing on teams that score a lot of points. Indeed, since 1980, NCAA teams have covered the spread 60% in Game 4, if they averaged 50+ points in their first three games, including 71% if they were favored by 25 points or more. And double-digit favorites, after scoring 70+ points in a home win which they covered by 10+ points, have gone 30-11 ATS since 1980. It's true that South Alabama covered a big number at Memphis last week when it was a 31.5-point dog, and only lost by 17. But the Jaguars are a awful 1-12 ATS their last 13 off a point spread win, including 0-8 ATS as an underdog. Take Appalachian State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers upset Louisiana-Lafayette, 30-28, on the road last week, as a 3-point underdog. And they also won and covered at Campbell the previous week. Unfortunately, they now are tasked with playing their third straight road game. And teams off back-to-back SU/ATS road wins, off an upset win, have covered just 37% since 1980 if they were playing their 3rd straight road game. Lay the points with Troy State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Colorado.  On the surface, the Buffaloes look to be the much stronger team.  After all, the Buffaloes are 3-0, while Chip Kelly's UCLA Bruins are 0-3.  But they've played vastly different schedules, in terms of strength of opponent.  Colorado has played Colorado St, which is 1-4 SU and 1-3 ATS; Nebraska, which is 0-3 SU and ATS; and New Hampshire, which is a division II team, and also 0-3 SU.  In contrast, UCLA has played Cincinnati, which is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS; #6-ranked Oklahoma, which is 4-0; and Fresno St., which is 2-1 SU and ATS.  Thus, Colorado's opponents are a combined 1-10 straight-up, while UCLA's previous foes have a current, combined record of 10-1.  One of my favorite NCAA systems goes against Colorado in this game.  That angle is 73-44 ATS, and goes against certain undefeated teams against foes off an ATS loss.  Take UCLA.  NCAA Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points over Los Angeles.  The Rams have been the league's best team thus far, but they will be given a stiff test tonight by the Minnesota Vikings.  And the Vikes will no doubt be in an ornery mood after laying an egg last week, at home, vs. the Buffalo Bills.  Indeed, that 21-point loss to Buffalo was the most shocking NFL result in decades, as Minnesota was a 16.5-point favorite.  And no greater NFL favorite had been upset in the last 23 years.  We'll grab the points with Minnesota, as single-digit underdogs have cashed 67.1% in the regular season vs. non-division foes after failing to cover the spread by 26+ points.  Minnesota's also won and covered each of the last five meetings in this series, including a 24-7 blowout last year.  Take the Vikings.  NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over North Carolina.  We played on the Tar Heels last week, and were rewarded with an outright upset win (38-35) by N. Carolina over Pitt.  The Heels now have to travel down to Miami to battle the #16-ranked Hurricanes, who won, 31-17, but failed to cover as a 26-point favorite last week.  That relatively-narrow win by Miami sets up the 'Canes in a 84-37 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams that failed to cover by 10+ points their previous game.  Additionally, North Carolina falls into a negative 29-65 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off a win that are playing poor defense (UNC gives up 33.33 ppg).  Finally, in this series, road teams that won their previous game are 0-8 ATS since 2007.  Take Miami-Fla.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets.  The Braves have locked up a Playoff spot, and are currently seeded 2nd, one game ahead of Colorado, which leads the NL West division.  And, of course, if Atlanta can remain ahead of the eventual NL West division winner (either Colorado or Los Angeles), it will have home field advantage vs. such team in the first round of the Playoffs.  Thus, Atlanta should be motivated to win tonight.  The Braves will hand the ball to Julio Teheran, who has a 3.86 ERA over his last three starts, and a 3.11 ERA in his 19 nighttime starts this season (compared to a 5.73 ERA in daytime affairs).  He'll be matched up against Jason Vargas, who has a 4.80 ERA in his last three starts, and a 5.88 ERA in his 16 nighttime games.  Importantly, the Braves have excelled on the road this season, while the Mets have struggled at home,  Atlanta is 46-31 on the road, +22 games on the moneyline, while the Mets are an awful 34-43 at home, minus 17 games on the moneyline.  It's true that Atlanta lost last night, and only managed 2 hits, which tied a season low.  But the Braves had won their six games previous to last night, and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in those.  Take the Braves.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our NL Central Game of the Month is on the St Louis Cardinals over the Milwaukee Brewers.  With their defeat last night, the Cardinals have fallen behind the Colorado Rockies in the race for the final playoff spot.  So, with just four games left, this is virtually a 'must-win' for the Redbirds.  They'll hand the ball to John Gant, who will make his 19th start of the season.  He has a solid 3.68 ERA and 1.29 WHIP as a starter this season, and has been at his best at night, where his ERA dips to 2.78 (compared to 6.12 in daytime starts).  Gant will be opposed by Jhoulys Chacin, who is an uninspiring 1-7 in his career starts vs. St. Louis, with a 5.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.  Even worse, he hasn't made it into the 6th inning in any of his four most recents starts.  And in his four starts vs. St. Louis this season, the Cardinals have scored 17 runs (14 earned) in 20 2-3 innings.  Take St. Louis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland A's.  The A's have clinched a post-season Wild Card berth, and will play the Yankees in that elimination game next week.  The venue of that game has yet to be decided, as Oakland still has hopes of catching the Yankees (Oakland's currently 1.5 games behind).  However, even though Oakland "needs" to win, we will fade it tonight, on the road in Seattle.  The A's will start lefty Brett Anderson, who has been dreadful of late.  His ERA over his last three starts is 6.39.  And his season ERA on the road, in 10 starts, is a nasty 5.36 (with a 1.51 WHIP).  In contrast, Mike Leake has a 2.79 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his last three starts.  And his home ERA this season is 3.99, with a respectable 1.27 WHIP.  The Mariners are 8-2 this season behind Leake, when favored -150 or less (and 19-11, +12 games on the moneyline, in all of Leake's starts this season).  Take Seattle.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago.  The Cubs will likely win the division, as they're up on Milwaukee by 2.5 games with just a week to go.  Tonight, though, they'll have to face one of the hottest pitchers in baseball.  Pittsburgh's Jameson Taillon has not given up more than 3 earned runs in a start in his last 20 outings!  And his ERA over those 20 games is 2.70.  And his last start was one of his three best starts this season, as he struck out 11 over seven shutout innings, in a 2-1 Pirates victory vs. Kansas City.  Pittsburgh has now won his last six starts, and 12 of his last 15.  That bodes well against the Cubs and Cole Hamels tonight, as Hamels has a 5.89 ERA over his last three starts, including a troubling, six inning, seven run performance, where he couldn't locate his fastball, at Arizona last Wednesday.  The Buccos have been installed as a sizable underdog, due to the fact Chicago needs to win, while the Bucs have been eliminated from Playoff contention.  But Pittsburgh continues to play hard, and has won six of its last eight games.  With Taillon on the hill, it's a live underdog on Monday night.  Take Pittsburgh.  Underdog of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Chicago Bears/Arizona Cardinals game.  The Chicago Bears have scored 23 and 24 points in their first two games, while Arizona has given up 24 and 34 in its first two.  Arizona ranks among the bottom 7 teams in defensive efficiency, so I have no doubt the Bears are going to be able to move the ball into the end zone.  Arizona also should bounce back on offense after its shutout loss.  After all, that shutout was against the Rams, who own the league's very best scoring defense, and who were widely projected going into the season to have the #1 defense this year.  And it also was in Arizona's first road game of the year, while this game is at home.  Indeed, since 1980, teams that were shut out in their first road game of the season have rebounded to score, on average, 19.93 points per game, if that next game was at home.  Finally, teams (like Arizona) off back-to-back unders to start the season tend to go 'over' the total in Week 3, including 82-51 since 1980 if the line was less than 40 points, and 26-12 (regardless of the O/U line) the last five seasons.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the LA Rams.  The Rams were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, at 10-1 odds.  And, so far, so good, as they're 2-0, and have the league's #1-ranked scoring defense, and also rank first in overall efficiency and scoring margin.  This week, they'll try to move to 3-0, but will be tasked with a much more difficult opponent than they saw in their first two games.  In Weeks 1 and 2, the Rams faced two below-average teams in the Raiders and Cardinals.  Now, they'll face the Chargers, who are scoring 29.5 points per game, and who rank among the Top 3 in offensive efficiency, and among the Top 10 in overall efficiency.  In this battle between offense and defense, we'll grab the points, as NFL road underdogs (or PK) are 16-0 ATS since 2006, at Game 3 forward, if they score 27.7 points per game, and their foe gives up 15 or less points per game.  Take the Chargers.  NFL Rivalry Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Indianapolis. We played on the Colts last week, and were rewarded with a 21-9 upset win over Washington by Indy. Can Indy make it two upsets in a row? Unfortunately, it's not likely, as road teams off upset wins have only cashed 37% since 1980 against an opponent coming off an upset loss on the road. Moreover, defending Super Bowl Champions have gone 43-30, 58.9% ATS off a road upset loss since 1980. With Philly off an upset loss at Tampa Bay last week, we'll lay the points with the Eagles on Sunday. NFL Roadkill Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Atlanta. The Saints enter this game with a 1-1 record, but have yet to cover the point spread. However, they are an underdog here, compared to being a double-digit favorite in each of their first two games. We'll take New Orleans + the points, as underdogs (or PK) have cashed 73% over the past 38 years off back to back ATS losses as double-digit favorites. Additionally, New Orleans falls into 41-21 and 97-49 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to bounce back off ATS losses. Finally, New Orleans is 38-27 ATS as an underdog, while Atlanta is a money-burning 19-31 ATS as a favorite. Take the Saints. NFL Division Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over Air Force. The Falcons have won the last three meetings in this series, but I love Utah State to get revenge on Saturday night. Utah State is 3-0 ATS this season, and comes into this game off back to back blowout wins, in which Utah State scored 60 and 73 points! For the season, Utah State has scored a whopping 164 points (54.67 ppg). I love offensive-minded College teams, and it's been very profitable to play on favorites of -30 points or less that scored 150+ points over their previous three games. Indeed, since 1990, they've cashed 67.1% at home in the regular season when not favored by more than 30 points if they were playing a non-winning opponent. Even better: if our team was also playing with revenge, then our system moves to 77% ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS its last seven. Take the Aggies. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Army. The Black Knights are 2-1 this season after winning back-to-back home games over Liberty and Hawaii. Now, they'll hit the road to play the #5-ranked Oklahoma Sooners, who are 3-0 this season. Army has had its troubles on the road over the last eight years. This season, it was blown out by the Duke Blue Devils, 34-14. And Army is 8-31 straight-up, and 13-25-1 ATS its last 39 on the road. Meanwhile, the Sooners are 10-2 ATS their last 12 at home. And they fall into 49-15, 64-27 and 55-18 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off wins. Take Oklahoma minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over LSU. Last week, the Tigers shocked Auburn as a double-digit underdog, and won 22-21. But off that big upset win, we will fade LSU as a big favorite vs. Louisiana Tech (which is also undefeated this season). Indeed, home teams have cashed just 28% in the regular season since 1980 vs. non-conference foes off a win, if our home team won outright as a double-digit road dog their previous game! Take Louisiana Tech. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State. The Wildcats are 3-0 this season, including an impressive 27-16 victory at Florida, which snapped a 31-game losing streak to the Gators. Now, the Wildcats will attempt to move to 2-0 in SEC Conference play by avenging a 38-point loss to the Bulldogs last season. They've been installed as a double-digit home underdog. And we'll grab the points, as double-digit home underdogs off a win, with a .666 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 57% since 1980 when playing with revenge against a conference opponent. Take Kentucky. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Texas A&M. The Tide have run roughshod over their first three opponents, with wins by 37 (Louisville), 50 (Arkansas State) and 55 (Mississippi) points. And with those blowouts, the Tide has covered the point spread by an average of 20.5 points per game. I look for Alabama to make it four in a row on Saturday, as NCAA Football teams off 3 SU/ATS wins, that scored 50+ points in each of those three games, have cashed 65.7% in the regular season since 1980. Lay the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Virginia. The Cardinals come into this game off three straight ATS losses, while Virginia comes in off three straight ATS wins. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Cavaliers, but winless ATS teams (at Game 4 forward) actually cover the spread more often than not! And Louisville falls into a 152-96 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winless ATS teams. Cardinals coach Bobby Petrino will start redshirt freshman Malik Cunningham this week after the young QB was impressive as a back-up in Louisville's last two games (both wins). The Cards have scored on eight of Cunningham's 12 drives, and has been the most effective rusher (183 yards on 33 carries) this season. In contrast, the erstwhile starter, Jawon Pass, did not lead a drive that ended in points in either of the last two games. This will no doubt be a positive move for Louisville's offense, which has averaged just 5.02 yards per play this season. Take the Cardinals on Saturday.

At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Pittsburgh. UNC has dominated this series since Pittsburgh joined the ACC Conference, with five straight wins since 2013 (4-1 ATS). I look for that dominance to continue today, as Pitt falls into a negative 6-24 ATS system of mine following its upset win over Georgia Tech last week. Additionally, the Tar Heels fall into 75-20 and 90-32 ATS systems of mine which play on certain teams in conference games off losses. Finally, Pitt's cashed just 25% as conference road favorites over the past 38 years off an upset win, while North Carolina is 10-1 ATS as home/neutral field underdogs vs. foes off an upset win the previous week. Take North Carolina.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Georgia.  The Tigers have rolled to an impressive 3-0 record to start the season, and have scored 40+ points in each of their three victories.  Now, they'll face the #3-ranked Bulldogs, who are also 3-0 this season.  These two teams met last season, and Missouri lost, 53-28, in Athens.  But that was the last time the Tigers lost a regular season game.  Since then, they've reeled off nine straight wins.  Don't be surprised if Mizzou pulls off the shocker in Columbia on Saturday afternoon, as NCAA Football teams have cashed 67.05% since 1980 off three straight games where they scored more than 38 points, if they were not playing on the road, and were not favored by more than 3 points.  And if our team was also playing with revenge against a conference foe, then our 67% system zooms to 78%.  Take Missouri + the points.  SEC Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Akron. The Cyclones are 0-2 this year following double-digit losses to Iowa and Oklahoma. But ISU was an underdog in each of those two games; they're going 'down in class,' and favored by double-digits here. Since 1980, Game 3 favorites off back to back losses as underdogs, have covered 80% vs. foes off back to back wins! And that's the situation here, as Akron comes in off wins over Morgan State and Northwestern. Even worse for the Zips: they were a 21-point underdog last week, but won, 39-34. However, teams off back to back wins are an awful 19-41 ATS if they won outright as an 18-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game. Take Iowa State.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Ohio. Last week, the Bearcats drilled Alabama A&M, 63-7, and moved to 3-0 on the season. And it was also the second straight game the Bearcats didn't give up 10 points to their opponent. For the season, Cincy's defense is giving up just eight points per game. And College Football single-digit home favorites (or PK) have cashed 61.5% over the last 38 seasons after scoring 60+ points in a win the previous game. And our angle zooms to 89% ATS if our team also owns a defense that surrenders 8 points or less per game! Lay the points with the Bearcats. NCAA Football High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls + the points over Central Florida.  The Owls have won their last two games on the scoreboard, but are 0-3 "in Vegas," as they've yet to cover the point spread in the season's first three weeks.  They'll try to finally cash a ticket on Friday night when they travel to Orlando to play Central Florida, which had last weekend off after its 38-0 win vs. South Carolina State.  And that was the 15th straight win for the Knights, dating back to last season.  However, when teams (like Florida Atlantic) start the season 0-3 ATS (or worse), I'll definitely start to look to play on them (for reasons of "point spread value") if certain, other factors are present.  Here, Florida Atlantic falls into a 152-96 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .500 (or better) teams that have failed to cover any of their games.  That doesn't bode well for the Knights on Friday.  And neither does the fact that Central Florida has not fared well over the years vs. other Florida universities, as it's gone 7-12 ATS, including 2-10 ATS vs. foes off a win.  Take Florida Atlantic + the points.  NCAA ELITE INFO. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Chicago White Sox.  This afternoon, Jose Quintana will return to the park he called home for the first five-and-a-half seasons of his MLB career.  And the situation in which Quintana pitches against his former team for the first time since going from the South Side to Wrigley Field couldn't be more important.  The Cubs were blasted 9-0 by Arizona on Wednesday, but are still clinging to a 2 1/2 game lead over the pesky Brewers.  They'll have a great chance to improve on that in the next week, as their next seven games are against teams with losing records, starting with this weekend set vs. the White Sox.  Sure, Quintana holds a career losing record here at Guaranteed Rate Field (22-27), but that's mainly because he pitched for a losing team most of the time and he also owns a 3.59 ERA over those 84 games (82 starts).  What a thrill it would be for him to get his team that much closer to its third straight Division Title with a win today.  The White Sox are just 9-25 in their last 34 inter-league games while the Cubs are 22-7 in their last 29 inter-league road games vs. teams with a losing record, and 65-27 (+26 games on the moneyline) off a game where they failed to score 2+ runs.  Take the Cubs.  MLB Road Warrior Winner.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees.  Having all but locked up the AL East as well as the best record in baseball, there are reasons to think that the Red Sox are taking their foot off of the proverbial accelerator with a little more than a week to go in the regular season.  And getting blown out, 10-1, like they did to the Yankees last night, certainly seems to back that thinking.  But there are at least two reasons to believe that Boston still wants to win games.  First is the fact that the Sox are two victories away from their franchise record for wins in a season (105).  And second is fact that the last thing a #1 seed wants to do going into the playoffs is to come in off a string of losing efforts, especially if those losses are to its division rival.  So, tonight, I expect the Boston bats to come out in support of LHP Eduardo Rodriguez who goes to the hill for his 23rd start of the season.  Certainly, Chris Sale has been Boston's #1 pitcher this season.  But Rodriguez has been arguably Boston's next best starter with a 12-4 record, 3.53 ERA and 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings.  The Sox are 5-1 in Rodriguez's last six starts, and 9-1 this season off a loss by more than 5 runs.  Meanwhile, the Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka has given up 11 runs and 26 baserunners in 15 innings pitched vs. the Red Sox this season.  Take Boston.  AL East Game of the Week.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds.  The Brewers picked up Gio Gonzalez after the Nats placed him on waivers, sacrificing only a couple of lesser Minor League prospects.  The 32-year-old southpaw has paid immediate dividends, going 1-0 in his first two Milwaukee starts with a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 10 1/3 innings.  Start number three will be his third straight at his new home as Gonzalez faces the Reds back at Miller Park in an effort to keep his team in the thick of the playoff race.  Cincy will go with RH Matt Harvey, who they picked up from the Mets in early May for C Devin Mesoraco.  Harvey has been up and down since joining the Reds, going 7-6 with a 4.13 ERA in 22 starts.  But five of Harvey's seven victories -- and only one of his losses -- have come at Great America Park so the road has not been kind to the 29-year-old.  This will be Harvey's first start of the season at Miller Park, but in his career, he is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two starts here.  Heading into Wednesday, the Reds are 7-21 in their last 28 road games, while Milwaukee is 64-32, +18 games on the money line, their last 96 as a home favorite.  Take the Brewers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the St. Louis Cardinals.  One of the biggest pitching surprises of either league goes to the hill tonight for Atlanta for his 22nd start.  Anibal Sanchez's performance thus far has left even the most seasoned of baseball followers scratching their heads.  The 34-year-old's ERA the last three seasons with Detroit was 4.99, 5.87, and 6.41 -- not trending in the right direction as they say.  So what could possibly account for his 3.01 number (along with a 1.12 WHIP) this season?  The Braves don't really care just as long as Sanchez keeps doing what he's doing.  They would love to have the veteran going to the mound for them in the post-season as Sanchez has a career 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP combined over three playoff seasons.  And it's looking more and more like the Braves will get to the post-season with tonight's game will be a good warm-up for them as the Cards may be someone they see in October.  Sanchez has a career 3.26 ERA vs. St. Louis in six starts (38 2/3 innings), while his mound opponent -- Austin Gomber -- has given up 10 runs and 19 baserunners in his last two starts (covering nine innings).  Take Atlanta.  MLB Game of the Month.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies.  In a very important game on Sunday night, the Dodgers tried relying on RH Ross Stripling, who had only had one start since August 9 and that decision didn't work out for them.  The Cards shut out L.A. as Stripling lasted just 3 1/3 innings so tonight they come home for a three-game series against the team they are a half-game behind.  In game one they will send LH Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound to face the Rockies and RH Jon Gray.  With all of the star power on this pitching staff, Ryu has been arguably the Dodgers' most consistent starter in the limited time he's been out on the mound.  In 12 starts, the 31-year-old southpaw is 4-3 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in just over 63 innings.  It's true that Gray was stellar in his first nine starts after returning from a stint in Triple-A, but in his last two, he has lasted just four innings and he has a 5.14 ERA in his last three.  Also, the Rockies are also a poor 10-24 on the road with Gray on the hill when the O/U line was less than 9 runs.  Take the Dodgers.  Mound Mismatch Massacre!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Seattle/Chicago game.  The Seahawks and Bears both lost their openers last week.  Chicago fell, 24-23, to Green Bay, while Seattle lost at Denver, 27-24.  Certainly, NFL teams are especially desperate in Week 2 coming off a loss in Week 1, as an 0-2 start to a season is a huge hole out of which to dig, should one aspire to make the Playoffs.  So, it's not surprising that match-ups between 0-1 teams have tilted toward the 'under' 57% of the time since 1980 (and 63% if both teams also happened to go 'over' in Week 1).  Likewise, Monday Night Football match-ups have also gone 'under' 65.2% since 1980 if both combatants are off a loss, and each went 'over' the total in their previous game.  Finally, Chicago's played 19 of its last 30 home games 'under' the total, while Seattle's gone 'under' in seven of its last eight road games off a loss.  Take the 'under.'  MNF Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars over New England.  The Jaguars' success last season was largely a result of its 2nd-ranked defense, as it gave up just 268 points in the regular season.  Jacksonville got this year off to a similar start, as it gave up just 15 points in last week's victory over the New York Giants.  This week, the Jags will open their home schedule, and take on Bill Belichick's Patriots, who won against Houston in Week 1. This is a great situation to take Jacksonville, as .500 (or better) home teams with defenses that give up less than 20 ppg, have gone 117-80 ATS since 1980 if they were an underdog (or PK) vs. a non-division foe off a win.  Moreover, these two teams met in last year's Playoffs in Foxboro, and the Patriots won, 24-20, but didn't cover the 7-point spread.  Thus, the Jags will be looking to avenge that defeat on Sunday.  Jacksonville is a super 11-3 ATS its last 14 when not laying more than three points, while New England is a poor 3-10-1 ATS off a win, if it was favored on the road vs. a team with a better defense.  Take Jacksonville. NFL Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over San Francisco.  The Lions were thoroughly embarassed on National TV last Monday Night, when they lost, 48-17, at home to the New York Jets.  However, underdogs generally bounce back after an awful Monday Night Football performance.  Indeed, since 1981, underdogs (or PK) that failed to cover the spread by more than 20 points in a Monday Night game have gone 70.5% ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The Brewers are a completely different looking team this season than last -- especially in the everyday lineup.  But no offensive addition has been more important to this team than that of RHP Jhoulys Chacin.  Chacin's first year in Milwaukee is his 10th in the Majors and it looks like it's going to be his best overall.  He has tied his career mark with 14 wins (2013 - Colorado), as well as starts (31), posted a 3.54 ERA, and is eight strikeouts shy of his career-best mark of 153.  Perhaps most important is the fact that Milwaukee is 20-11 when Chacin takes the mound, and that mark is the same as the leading candidates for the Cy Young (Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola).  Chacin looks for that important 15th victory this afternoon against a team that he's pitched well against this season, but hasn't gotten the support from his teammates that he's deserved.  By contrast to Chacin, the Pirates' RH Trevor Williams is 12-9 but his team is only 14-14 in his 2018 starts.  The Bucs are 1-4 in Williams' last five starts vs. winning teams.  Take the Crew.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Los Angeles.  The Chargers blew out the Bills last season, 54-24, as a 7-point favorite.  Couple that with the fact that Buffalo lost, 47-3, at Baltimore last Sunday, and it's easy to see why some might be attracted to the road team, here.  But we are going to run the other way with the Bills, as they fall into 144-66 and 52-13 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to bounce back off losses.  Also, the Bills were 9-7 last year.  And home teams that were a winning team the previous season, and playing with revenge from a 25-point (or worse) defeat from a loss that season to their current opponent, have cashed 65.4% since November 1983.  Take the home underdog Bills.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Washington.  Last week, the Redskins opened their 2018 campaign with an upset win at Arizona.  Washington was a 2.5-point underdog in that game, but walloped the Cardinals, 24-6.  Meanwhile, Indy fell at home, 34-23, to the Cincinnati Bengals.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Redskins off their impressive performance last week.  But be careful, as home favorites off an upset road win to open their season have generally stumbled when matched up against foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Since 1980, they've covered just 34.4% of the time.  That doesn't bode well for Washington this afternoon.  And nor does the fact that Washington has covered just 30 of 101 home games vs. non-winning opposition, if Washington wasn't getting 2 points in the game.  Finally, Indianapolis is 33-13 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 14-2 when the Colts are getting 4+ points.  Take Indy. NFL Underdog Shocker!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over Kansas City.  Last week, the Chiefs went into Los Angeles, and upset the Chargers, 38-28.  Meanwhile, the Steelers stumbled in their opening game -- also against a division foe -- as Pittsburgh tied Cleveland, 21-21, which certainly felt like a loss, as Cleveland was 0-16 last season.  I'm going to go against KC on the road, as AFC West teams have cashed just 34.6% the past 38 years off an upset division win, if they're playing a non-division foe on the road.  Also, these two teams have met three times in the past two seasons, and the Steelers have won all three games, both straight-up and ATS.   Finally, Pittsburgh is 21-6 ATS at home off a division game where it was favored, but did not win.  Take the Steelers.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Ohio State.  The Buckeyes didn't need their suspended head coach, Urban Meyer, in their first two games.  But they may come to rue the fact he wasn't available for this game, as TCU could very well pull the outright upset.  Of course, we don't need TCU to win outright -- we just need it to cover this bloated, double-digit point spread.  And I think it will, as TCU enters off a 30-point win (42-12) at SMU last Friday.  And that followed up another impressive effort in Week 1, when TCU shut down Southern University, 55-7.  Thus, TCU's given up just 9.5 ppg, on defense.  And that bodes well for them, here, as College Football underdogs of more than three points, are 68-38 ATS if they give up 9.5 ppg (or less).  Take TCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over Alabama.  This is a big revenge game for Mississippi, which lost by 63 points to 'Bama last season.  And that was the worst defeat by Ole Miss in the 123-year history of this series.  Alabama, the defending National Champion, is now 2-0 SU/ATS this season, with blowout wins over Louisville and Arkansas State.  But off those two wins, we'll fade the Crimson Tide, as defending National Champs are an awful 31.8% ATS away from home over the past 38 seasons off back to back SU/ATS wins!  Even better:  Ole Miss is 33-18 ATS as a revenge-minded underdog in SEC Conference games, if Ole Miss was off a win.  Take Mississippi + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars are 0-2 on the season, and a horrid 0-10 ATS their last 10 Sun Belt games as favorites of -4+ points, yet have been installed as a big favorite over Sun Belt conference rival, Texas State.  That doesn't bode well for South Alabama this evening.  And neither does the fact that Sun Belt home favorites of -7 (or more) points are a dreadful 70-102 ATS.  Finally, the Jaguars fall into negative 31-80 and 29-104 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Bobcats + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  Both Buffalo and EMU come into this Mid-American Conference opener with 2-0 records.  And each also comes into this game off upset wins:  Eastern Michigan stunned Purdue, 20-19, as a 15-point underdog last week, while Buffalo pulled off a milder upset, with a 36-29 victory at Temple, as a 4-point dog.  We'll go against the Eagles on this Saturday evening, as teams off upset wins by less than 10 points, as double-digit dogs, have gone just 77-137 ATS as dogs in the regular season vs. foes off a straight-up win.  Additionally, the Bulls are 21-11 ATS their last 32 games at home, including 7-0 ATS their last seven when they lost the previous meeting to their opponent.  And the Eagles are an awful 0-11 straight-up and 1-10 ATS off a win vs. Mid-American Conference foes also off a win.  Take Buffalo.  MAC Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Colorado State.  Last week, the Gators were upset at home, 27-16, as a 13.5-point favorite by the Kentucky Wildcats.  Meanwhile, the Rams pulled their own upset last week, 34-27, as a 14-point underdog over Arkansas.  Can Colorado State make it two upsets in a row over an SEC Conference foe?  Not likely, as underdogs of +12 or more points, off an upset win as an underdog of +12 points or more, have cashed just 19.1% over the past 38 years vs. foes off an upset loss.  Yikes!  Moreover, the Gators are a solid 21-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes in the regular season when priced from -3.5 to -23 points, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when the Gators were off a point spread defeat. NCAA Game of the Week.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over BYU.  Last week, we had our College Football Game of the Month on California against BYU, as we faded the Cougars off their upset win over Arizona as a double-digit underdog.  And it was an easy win for us, as California's defense completely shut down BYU in a 21-18 victory which wasn't as close as the final score indicated.  Indeed, BYU's only offensive touchdown of the game came with under a minute to play, as its first touchdown came off an interception return, so California held BYU's offense out of the end zone for the first 59 minutes of the game.  Now BYU will have to travel to Madison to take on the 2-0 Badgers.  These two teams met last season in Utah, and the Cougars couldn't find the end zone for that game, either, as they lost 40-6, and were held to 192 yards of offense, though it's true that BYU QB Tanner Mangum wasn't available for that game.  It's also true that Wisconsin has lost both of its games against the spread.  But undefeated teams off back to back ATS losses that are also winless against the spread for the season, have covered 59.2% as favorites over the past 38 years.  I like Wisconsin here.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over LSU.  Auburn had a great season last year, but one of its losses was to LSU, as a 6.5-point favorite.  But that game was in Baton Rouge; this game is in Auburn.  And Auburn's an awesome 18-7-1 ATS at home vs. SEC Conference foes when playing with revenge.  Last week, Auburn tuned up for this game with a 63-9 massacre of Alabama St.  And NCAA home favorites of -10 points or less (or PK) have cashed 63% since 1980 off a win the previous week, in which they scored 60+ points.  Take Auburn.  NCAA Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Boise State.  This is a great match-up of two Top 25-ranked teams.  Okie State is led by senior QB Taylor Cornelius, who has masterfully directed the Cowboys' up-tempo offense in their first two games.  Cornelius has passed for 728 yards, with six touchdown passes.  Last week, Oklahoma State rolled up 55 points vs. an outmatched South Alabama squad.  And Okie State is 36-11 ATS off a win, in which it scored 50+ points.  Meanwhile, Boise's covered just 17 of 46 road games vs. foes off a win, if Boise wasn't getting 3.5 (or more) points.  And the Broncos have also just covered 36% on the road vs. foes that scored 42+ in their previous game.  Take Oklahoma St.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets minus the points over Pittsburgh.  Last week, we played against Ga Tech, and got the $$$ when South Florida came back from a double-digit, 4th quarter deficit to upset the Jackets, 49-38.  If there was a silver lining for Paul Johnson's squad, it was that it out-gained South Florida on offense, 602 yards to 426.  Unfortunately, they coughed up 2 interceptions and 1 fumble (while only forcing 1 turnover on defense).  And they allowed 2 kick returns to go for touchdowns.  Johnson stated in his press conference that personnel changes (e.g., using more veterans) would be made to shore up his kick return defense, so that should help.  It's also worth noting that Georgia Tech is 5-0 ATS the last couple of years after a game where it had a negative 2 (or worse) turnover differential.  Last season, Georgia Tech blew out Pitt, 35-17, and out-yarded the Panthers 484 to 235.  This will be a similar beatdown.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Florida State.  The Orange are 2-0 SU and ATS after smashing Western Michigan and Wagner the last two weekends.  In contrast, Florida State has gotten out of the gate slowly, with an upset loss to ACC Conference foe Virginia Tech on Labor Day, followed by an unimpressive 36-26 win last week, at home, vs. Samford.  The Seminoles have not covered an ACC Conference game in their last nine, which certainly doesn't bode well for them, here.  And neither does the fact that the Orange have piled up 117 points in their first two games, as home dogs of more than 2 points, with a scoring average greater than 29.5 points, are 229-152-4 ATS!  Take Syracuse.  High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  You would have been hard-pressed to find many people who had heard of tonight's starters in this crucial game back in March.  But here we are in September and both RH's Walker Buehler (Dodgers) and Jack Flaherty (Cards) have become key members of their respective rotations.  There's no denying Buehler's importance to his team right now, but if there is a weakness in the 24-year-old rookie's resume, it's in his performance away from Dodger Stadium.  In 11 games (10 starts) at home, Buehler is 3-3 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.  But in his nine road starts, he has only managed a 4.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.  These two starters faced off less than a month ago (August 22) in L.A. and the Cards came through with a 3-1 victory (although Flaherty took a ND).  Flaherty hasn't lost a start since July 31 and the Cards are 5-2 in his last seven trips to the mound.  The Dodgers are 1-5 in the last six meetings while the Cards are 7-2 in their last nine games vs. NL West teams and 4-1 in Flaherty's last five vs. winning teams.  Take St. Louis.  MLB Dog of the Month.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Washington Nationals.  This afternoon, the Cubs will make a trip to DC to play a make-up a game from last weekend.  LH Mike Montgomery will go to the mound for Chicago opposite Nationals RH Joe Ross, who is making his return from Tommy John surgery.  In 34 games, including 15 starts, Montgomery is 4-5 with a 3.85 ERA.  However, on the road, his ERA is a full run lower than it is at Wrigley (3.43 vs. 4.43).  It also isn't hurting Montgomery to have had a light workload (107 2/3 innings) this season, which should allow him to continue to perform at a high level.  To wit:  in the month of August, Montgomery posted a 2.70 ERA.  The Cubs are also 12-4 in their last 16 games vs. a RH starter, while Washington is a poor 16-23 (minus 16 games on the money line) vs. lefties.  Take Chicago.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Cincinnati Reds.  Yesterday, the Reds continued their dominance over L.A., with a sixth straight win this season in the series.  The 7th (and final) game of the series will be played early today at Great American Ball Park, so this will be the final chance for Los Angeles to defeat the Reds this year.  I believe they will do so.  Ross Stripling will get the start for the Dodgers today, though he's coming off an injury, and will be limited in his pitch count (about 45 pitches, or 3 innings).  But that's not a bad thing, as the Dodgers' bullpen's ERA in day games is 3.34, with a 1.15 WHIP this season.  It's true that the Reds have won Anthony Desclafani's last three starts.  But it's been due to offensive production, not for Desclafani's pitching.  Indeed, his ERA over his last three outings is 6.28 and he hasn't had a quality start in any of his last four games.  Even worse, the Reds are an awful 8-30 (minus 15 games on the money line) as a home underdog of +175 or higher, and 1-6 behind Desclafani when he's been a home dog of +125 or more.  Take Los Angeles in this early afternoon game.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Cincinnati Reds.  The Reds jumped all over the Dodgers and Alex Wood last night, and that's not something that L.A. can really afford right now.  It's not likely to happen tonight as Hyun-Jin Ryu goes to the mound for the 12th time this season.  The veteran southpaw has been very tough to hit this season, as evidenced by his 2.16 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.  Last night's victory was the Reds' fifth straight over the Dodgers this season as the Dodgers haven't beaten Cincy since last June.  But the Reds haven't faced Ryu in 2018 either, and he's been ultra tough against just about everyone he's gone out and pitched against.  His last road start was on May 2 and Ryu threw 1 1/3 scoreless innings in that one before leaving with a groin injury.  He has made five starts since returning -- all at home -- but he was pretty effective in limited road work leading up to the injury.  The Dodgers are also 16-5 in Ryu's last 21 road starts vs. teams with a losing record, and they've won five straight off a loss.  Take L.A.  Mound Mismatch Massacre!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  With the possible exception of the Braves (if they win the NL East) no run to a Division Pennant has been as surprising as that of the Rockies. And like Atlanta, Colorado has had many unsung heroes.  But none has been bigger than German Marquez.  Despite winning 11 games and finishing fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting last season, the 23-year-old RHP flew under the radar coming into 2018.  He has already matched last year's win total and lowered that ERA to 4.05 in 28 starts.  More importantly, Marquez has been red-hot down the stretch.  In his last five starts, Marquez has gone 2-0 and allowed seven runs on 20 hits in 35 2/3 innings with 38 strikeouts and just seven walks.  Those are ace-like numbers and two of those five starts were here at home, and they were every bit as good as his road starts.  RH Zack Godley has had a good season for the D-Backs for sure, but they are 2-7 in his last nine starts vs. teams with a winning record while the Rox are 8-2 in Marquez's last 10 starts vs. the same.  Take Colorado.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Minnesota Twins.  The Yankees were looking for a weekend sweep in Seattle against a team that they're attempting to knock out of post-season contention.  But after winning the first two games, New York fell one run short on Sunday, 3-2.  But the Yanks are still sitting pretty -- two-and-a-half games up on the A's for the first Wild Card spot in the AL heading into this series vs. the Twins.  You can count LHP JA Happ among the group of starters whose season has taken a turn for the better since being traded from a non-contender to a contender.  Happ was solid -- 10-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 20 starts -- while with the Blue Jays from April through July.  But after going to the Bronx he has been lights-out -- Cy Young worthy if it was over an entire season.  Since donning the pinstripes, the veteran southpaw has gong 5-0 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in seven starts.  The Yanks don't mind being on the road at all lately as they are 11-4 in their last 15 away from the Bronx.  The Twins are 0-7 in their last seven games following a win.  Take New York.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Cubs were rained out in DC yesterday which allows them to skip their #5 starter and come back today with a full day of rest and LH ace Jon Lester on the mound at home.  After a so-so 2017 (13-8 with a 4.33 ERA), Lester has rebounded strong this season, going 15-5 with a 3.53 ERA in 28 starts.  The beginning of the second half was a struggle for Lester as he went 0-3 in his first five starts after the All Star break.  But Lester has settled down lately, going 3-0 with four earned runs allowed in his last four starts covering 23 2/3 innings.  He started September off on a high note, shutting out the Phillies on the road over six innings with seven strikeouts and no walks for his 15th victory.  He hasn't faced the Brewers since his second start on April 5 in Milwaukee, shutting them out over six innings allowing just three hits with six strikeouts in an 8-0 beat-down for his first victory of the season.  The Cubs are 5-0 in Lester's last five starts against the Brewers.  Take the Cubs.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Both of these teams finished last season with winning records.  But KC (10-6) earned a trip to the Playoffs, while the Chargers (9-7) barely missed out.  And the fact that Los Angeles lost both regular season games to the Chiefs is the main reason which KC was able to edge out the Chargers for that post-season berth.  I love the Chargers to avenge those two losses, as home favorites of less than 7 points (or PK) have cashed 75.5% ATS when playing with double revenge from two losses to a division rival the previous season, if our home team also had a winning record in that previous season.  Take the Chargers.  NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over BYU.  Last Saturday, the Cougars went into Arizona and upset the Wildcats, 28-23, as an 11.5-point underdog.  BYU now returns home to take on another Pac-12 Conference team in the California Golden Bears, who also won last week -- by 7 -- at home vs. North Carolina.  I look for BYU to have a major letdown on Saturday night, as favorites of less than 16 points have covered just 20.6 percent of the time since 1980 off an upset win (as a dog of +6 or more points) in their season opener.  Additionally, Pac-12 Conference underdogs of +11 (or less) points are a solid 162-115, 58.4% ATS since 1980 in non-conference games, including 67-38 ATS vs. foes off an ATS win.  Take California + the points.  NCAA Football Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm (approximate start time), in Game 2 of the Double Header, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over Washington.  Cole Hamels will get the start for the Cubbies, and he's been perhaps the most valuable player traded for at the deadline.  Indeed, since the Cubs acquired him in late July, he's a perfect 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in seven starts with his new team.  And one of those starts was against this Nationals club, which he held to one earned run in seven innings, in a 4-3 win by Chciago on August 12.  I surely won't fade those numbers.  But he's also been terrific on the road all season, with a 2.38 ERA and 7-2 record in his 14 road starts.  Finally, the Nationals have been dreadful vs. lefties this season (14-23, minus 19 games on the moneyline).  Take the Cubs in Game 2 with Hamels.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over Arizona.  We played on Atlanta as a big underdog in Game 1 of this series (and won), and then came back with the homestanding Diamondbacks last night (and also won).  Tonight, we're back on the road dog, as we'll play on the Braves behind RHP Julio Teheran.  This season, the Braves are a perfect 9-0 as an underdog of +150 or less with Teheran on the hill, while Arizona is a poor 21-23 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) as a favorite at home, priced from -125 to -175.  Teheran's career numbers vs. Arizona are solid (4-1, 2.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), while Clay Buchholz has a poor 6.06 ERA and 1.89 WHIP vs. the Braves, in three starts.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks over the Cincinnati Bearcats.  Last week, the Bearcats went into the Rose Bowl, and upset UCLA, 26-17, as a 14-point underdog.  Now, they'll come back to the Queen City to play their rival, Miami-Ohio, at Paul Brown Stadium.  This is the most-played, currently active rivalry between non-conference teams, as this will be the 123rd meeting.  Miami leads the series 59-56-7, but Cincinnati has won the last 12 games in a row.  I look for Miami to snap this long losing streak, as revenge-minded teams have cashed 74.1% since 1982 vs. non-conference foes off an upset win as a 2-touchdown underdog!  Moreover, Cincy has covered just 25 of 63 off a road win, while Miami-Ohio has gone 21-10 ATS off a SU/ATS home loss.  Take the Red Hawks.  NCAA Rivalry Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Detroit Tigers.  The Cards are locked in a tight battle with the Brewers for the #1 NL Wild Card and they wouldn't be in this position without the contribution of RHP Jack Flaherty.  Flaherty has come up huge for the Cards, with an 8-6 record and 2.83 ERA in 23 starts coming into tonight.  In his last start, Flaherty had to face Max Scherzer and the Nats.  After needing 33 pitches to get through the first inning (with a HR to Trea Turner), Flaherty settled down and was in line for the victory after holding the Nats to that single run (the bullpen blew it later on).  He won't have Max Scherzer or the Nats lineup to contend with tonight as Flaherty faces the Tigers for the first time in his career.  He comes into this start with a 1.50 ERA in his last three and his lineup with have the benefit of using DH tonight against LHP Matthew Boyd.  The Cards are hitting .256 vs. lefties this season and Boyd is 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA in eight inter-league games (six starts) in his career. Heading into this evening, the Tigers are 5-10 in their last 15 games vs. NL teams.  Take St. Louis.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over TCU.  Last week, in its home opener, TCU smashed Southern U., 55-7, while SMU lost at North Texas, 46-23.  This Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex rivalry has been owned by the Horned Frogs for the last six years, including a 56-36 victory last season.  But even though the Mustangs haven't won outright since 2011, they've covered the point spread for three of the last six seasons (and 10 of the last 15 meetings).  As with many heated rivalries, the underdog has brought home the bacon in this series, as the dog has gone 22-12-1 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for TCU:  double-digit Road Favorites, off a home win in their season opener the previous week, have cashed just 26% since 1980 against revenge-minded foes off a loss!  Finally, SMU falls into a 126-68 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams playing with revenge from a blowout loss by more than 15 points.  Take the Mustangs.  Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over Atlanta.  Last night, we were on the other side, and were rewarded with a nice, extra-innings win by the underdog Braves.  But we'll switch gears on Friday and take the homestanding Diamondbacks.  Kevin Gausman will get the start for the Braves, and his teams have been dreadful in his road starts, as they've won just 23 of 68 (minus 21 games on the moneyline).  Even worse:  as an underdog, Gausman's teams have gone 2-10 this year, and 7-25 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) the past two years.  Arizona's Patrick Corbin has faced Atlanta eight times, and has gone 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA.  I look for him to be dominant once again.  Take Arizona.  MLB Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  The Braves lost for the 3rd straight time yesterday afternoon, 9-8, to Boston.  And it was a heartbreaker, as the Braves were up 7-1 in the game, as well as 8-7 in the top of the 9th, but collapsed.  Tonight, Atlanta will face Arizona, another team in the Playoff hunt.  The Braves will start Anibal Sanchez, while Arizona will turn to Zack Greinke.  Both pitchers are in fine form, and both have similar, overall statistics.  Sanchez's ERA is 2.55 in his last three starts, and it's 3.07 for the season.  Similarly, Greinke's ERA is 2.70 over his last three outings, and it's 2.97 this year.  Atlanta's actually been a better road team than home team this season.  At home, Atlanta's a money-burning 37-34, minus 2 games on the moneyline.  But on the road, it's 39-29, plus 16 games on the moneyline.  Likewise, Arizona's been much better away from home (39-32, +7 games on the moneyline), than in front of its home faithful (36-32, minus 8 games on the moneyline).  With Atlanta on the road, at Arizona, we'll take the Braves in this underdog role.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers.  Milwaukee has taken the first two games of this series, and is now alone in 2nd place in the National League Central division (and sits in 1st place in the Wild Card race).  Tonight, Milwaukee will look to narrow the Cubs' 3-game division lead.  But I favor the Cubs in this match-up.  Chicago will hand the ball to LHP Jose Quintana.  It's true that he's had an up-and-down season, as he's 11-9, with a 4.21 ERA.  But he's been much better at night (2.93 ERA; 1.16 WHIP) than in the daytime (5.20 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).  Even better:  he's dominated the Brewers in his eight career starts, as he's gone 4-2, with a super 1.67 ERA.  Quintana will oppose Brewers RHP Jhoulys Chacin.  Unfortunately for Milwaukee, Chacin has done his best work in the afternoon, as he's 4-1, with a 2.90 ERA.  This game, though, will be played at night, where Chacin's ERA is almost a full run higher (3.80).  Take the Cubs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers.  It's not a marquee match-up, but a pair of southpaws go to the hill in Milwaukee in what could be the biggest series of the regular season for these two teams.  It's hard to deny that LH Wade Miley has given the Brewers an incredible boost that virtually no one expected.  But for all he's done for the Crew, Miley only has two wins in 11 starts with no victories in the month of August.  Also, in his two August starts here at home, Miley allowed five runs on 15 hits with four walks in 10 innings against the Pirates and Rockies -- hardly numbers you would expect from someone with a 2.18 ERA.  What that tells you is that Miley has been more lucky than good recently, at least when it comes to pitching at Miller Park.  Mike Montgomery  will make his second start since coming off the DL.  So far as a starter, he's 4-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 14 games.  He will try to avenge a loss in his only other start against the Brewers this season on June 13 despite giving up just one run over six innings. The Cubs are 19-8 in their last 27 games vs. a LH starter, and 10-2 their last 12 coming off a loss.  Take Chicago.  As always, good luck...AL McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins.  With the Braves playing a series against the best team in baseball (the Red Sox), the Phillies need to take advantage of a series like this one.  Unfortunately, although Boston came through and thumped the Braves on Monday, the Phillies couldn't do anything and lost a tough one in the first game of this series in south Florida.  And it's beginning to look more and more like Philly's only path to the post-season will be by way of an NL East title.  So if ever there was a time for RHP Jake Arrieta to prove his worth, now would be it.  Sure, Arrieta has a solid 3.54 ERA in a full slate of 26 starts.  But that's about the only thing you could say has gone well for the biggest off-season pitching free-agent.  Arrieta's record is only 9-9 (on a team that is seven games over .500) and he continues to lose in critical situations.  Nobody knows how crucial the last four weeks are more than Arrieta himself, so look for him to turn it up down the stretch.  The Phillies are 7-3 in Arrieta's last 10 starts on grass, and Arrieta's teams are also a super 25-7 when priced from -125 to -175 on the road.  Take Philadelphia.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over Seattle.  The A's have been fantastic this season when favored, as they're 44-20, +17 games on the moneyline (and 29-12 in this situation at home).  This afternoon, they'll hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, who is 3-2 at home, with a 2.88 ERA.  In stark contrast, Felix Hernandez has a losing record (8-11) this season, including 4-6 on the road, with a 7.30 ERA.  And the Mariners are 1-7 as an underdog of +150 or less with him on the hill.  Clearly, Hernandez's best days are in the rear view mirror.  Jackson's a perfect 4-0 in his four career starts vs. Seattle, with a 1.26 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.  Take the A's.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.