Sports Picks & Predictions

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Minnesota Twins.  This is an action play for us today -- Please do not list pitchers.  With the MLB trade season upon us, there are still plenty of quality players -- especially pitchers -- rumored to be moving before today's 4:00 deadline.  The Twins had been scheduled to hand the ball to Jose Berrios, but he's off to Toronto.  No one is clamoring over LH Wade LeBlanc of the Cardinals however.  The 36-year-old has already switched teams multiple times in 2021 and he is scheduled to get his seventh start of the season tonight.  Since signing with St. Louis in mid-June, LeBlanc has done some good work, posting a 3.45 ERA in nine games -- including five starts -- covering 28 2/3 innings.  He'll try to add to those solid numbers with a start against a Twins team that has already begun dismantling itself.  Interleague play of this type has not been kind to the Twins who are 2-12 in their last 14 games vs. an NL left-handed starter (and 11-25 their last 36 vs. lefties, overall).  Even worse:  on the road, when priced between +125 and -125, the Twins are a horrid 9-21.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers.  The Rangers offense has been simply abominable, and that's with slugger Joey Gallo in the lineup almost every day.  But yesterday, Texas shipped Gallo off to the Yankees for a bundle of prospects, so imagine how anemic the Rangers run production is going to be the rest of this season?  And there's still time to trade more quality players, and RHP Kyle Gibson is a hot commodity and could easily be dealt before today's 4:00 pm deadline.  It's tough enough when the Texas lineup is facing an average or below-average starter, but RH rookie Logan Gilbert is looking like anything but that right now.  The former #14 overall draft pick (2018) is 4-2 with a 3.81 ERA and a 5.15 K:BB ratio in 12 starts for the M's covering 56 2/3 innings.  He's likely licking his chops for start number 13 tonight against what will be a depleted batting order.  Seattle is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings with Texas while the Rangers are 6-18 in their last 24 vs. teams from the AL West (their own division).  Take the M's.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays.  The Max Scherzer sweepstakes have come and gone and the stud starter won't be heading to Boston or San Diego as many people thought he might.  There's still time for the Sox to land a starter (as of this writing) but it's unlikely it would be anyone near the caliber of Scherzer, who (along with teammate Trea Turner) will now play for a loaded Dodgers squad.  That's good news for LHP Martin Perez who gets his 21st start of the season tonight.  Admittedly, Perez hasn't been very good through most of his campaign in Boston, so far.  But thanks to the Sox offense, he has a winning record at 7-6.  This will be Perez's first start of the season vs. the Rays since his opening start on April 6 -- a game won the Red Sox, 6-5.  Boston's done very well this season with these intra-division match-ups as the Sox are 29-11 in their last 40 games vs. teams from the AL East.  Boston is also 5-2 in the last seven meetings with the Rays and 18-9 (+14 games on the moneyline) in its last 27 games as a road underdog.  Take the Red Sox.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox.  The game between these two AL East contenders on Tuesday night was postponed so the Jays and Sox played a double-header on Wednesday.  Toronto took the first game and then Boston came back in the night-cap behind rookie RHP Tanner Houck.  Now it's up to veteran LHP Hyun Jin Ryu if the Jays are to get away with a series split (Boston also won on Monday).  Ryu's ERA is higher than the last two seasons at 3.44, but the 34-year-old has a 9-5 record in 19 starts covering 110 innings and he is traditionally a strong second half performer.  For his career, Ryu has a 2.86 ERA after the All Star break.  Ryu also has a career 3.00 ERA in three starts here at Fenway Park.  In Ryu's last start vs. the Sox, he threw seven shutout innings allowing just four hits with seven strikeouts and no walks in an 8-0 Toronto rout on May 18.  The opposing starter that day was southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez who is starting tonight as well.  Take the Blue Jays.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  We played on Los Angeles last night, and easily got the $$$$ in an 8-0 Dodger win.  David Price will be on the mound for LA this afternoon.  Unfortunately, Los Angeles has lost his last 4 starts.  And Price's teams are an awful 3-9 his last 12 starts.  The Giants have dominated lefties over the past 2 seasons, with a 32-22 record (+17 games on the moneyline).  And they're also a powerful 24-15 as an underdog this season (+16.4 games on the moneyline).  Take the Giants as a home underdog.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over Kansas City.  Last night, the White Sox, with big RHP Lucas Giolito, lost in 10 innings to the Royals, who started Kris Bubic.  And that lowered Chicago's run vs. lefty starters to 34-10, and its great record this season as a favorite to 51-26 (+10.1 games on the moneyline), and 103-51 (+29.1 net games) their last 154.  In contrast, when installed as an underdog, the ChiSox are 9-16 (minus 6.4 games) this season.  And they're also under water vs. righties, with a 41-32 overall record -- but minus 0.5 games on the moneyline.  This afternoon, the match-up will be southpaw Carlos Rodon vs. KC lefty Carlos Hernandez.  KC is a wallet-busting 45-71 in day games, and was held to 0 runs over six innings (with 8 strikeouts) the last time Rodon faced the Royals here in Kansas City, back in May (a 3-0 White Sox win).  Rodon is 5-1 this season in his 9 road starts, with a 1.90 ERA.  Meanwhile, Hernandez's ERA is an ugly 8.10. With Chicago excelling against lefties, and also when installed as a favorite, we'll back the White Sox this afternoon.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants.  Last night, the Dodgers lost yet another 1-run game this season (they lead the league in that unfortunate category).  Still, Los Angeles is a solid 61-41 on the season.  But if not for 1-run losses and/or extra-inning defeats, the Dodgers would have the best record in baseball.  Tonight, they'll turn to their ace, Walker Buehler.  And all the young hurler has done in his career vs. San Francisco is compile a 6-0 record with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP.  He'll match up against Anthony DeSclafani tonight.  In sharp contrast, DeSclafani's record vs. L.A. is 1-7, with a 6.11 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP.  These two pitchers met last week in a game at Chavez Ravine.  Buehler led the champs to a 5-3 win, as he gave up 1 run over 7 1/3 innings, while striking out 9.  Even better:  on the road in Buehler's career, the Dodgers are 14-1 vs. division rivals when he starts.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection in Game 2 of the double-header, is the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays.  This matchup will feature southpaw Steven Matz against righty Tanner Houck.  And we'll take the homestanding Red Sox with Houck on the hill.  Houck was originally a 12th round selection by the Blue Jays in 2014 out of High School in Illinois.  But the then 18-year-old RHP decided to attend College and Houck re-entered the draft three years later and was selected by the Red Sox in the first round.  So far, it looks like a wise choice by Boston as Houck tore through the Minors and then got a chance in the Big Leagues last season and really opened some eyes.  In three 2020 starts covering 17 innings, Houck went 3-0 while posting a ridiculous 0.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP.  He's gotten the call again this season and so far he has once again made the most of it.  Still looking for his first win of 2021, Houck has a 2.50 ERA in five games (three starts) covering 18 innings but most importantly he has cut his walk rate by more than half (4.8 to 2.0) while maintaining a strikeout rate of better than 11.  Boston has done its best work at night this season, with a 43-21 record (plus 22.3 games on the moneyline), while Matz's teams are 4-12 his last 16 starts under the lights.  This also will be Matz's fourth start vs. Boston, and his ERA is an elevated 4.76, with a WHIP of 1.64.  Meanwhile, his ERA in his eight nighttime starts this season is 5.43, with a 1.51 WHIP.  Finally, Houck comes into this game off a solid start vs. the Yankees in which he gave up 0 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings, and 8 strikeouts.  Take the Red Sox.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros.  Yusei Kikuchi continues to perform at a very high level for his surprising Mariners team.  The victories don't always come for the 30-year-old southpaw, but Kikuchi usually finds a way to put in a quality effort and the All Star has managed to keep his ERA under four runs despite just a 6-5 record.  He set a season high for himself in his last start with 12 strikeouts (vs. only one walk) in just six innings.  This will be Kikuchi's third start of the season against the Astros as he led his team to victory twice in April against this Houston club (once here at home and once at Minute Maid Park).   Kikuchi has thrived in day games throughout his MLB career and 2021 appears to be no exception.  In 12 nighttime starts, he is 3-4 with 5.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in just under 69 innings.  However in six daytime outings, Kikuchi is 3-1 with a sparkling 1.77 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in just under 41 innings.  The M's are also 20-9 in their last 29 games as an underdog.  Take Seattle.

At 2:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox.  This is a rematch of a pitching matchup from last Wednesday.  Toronto's Robbie Ray lost that game, 7-4, to Boston's Garrett Richards, but Ray and the Jays should exact revenge tonight.  The Red Sox are a dismal 12-25 as a home underdog, and have also greatly struggled here at Fenway Park vs. southpaws, as they're 24-31 (but minus 16.8 games on the moneyline), while Richards' teams are a poor 17-32 (minus 10.9 games on the moneyline) when installed as an underdog.  In contrast, Robbie Ray has excelled in his career as a road favorite (22-13, +5 games on the moneyline).  Take the Blue Jays.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the St. Louis Cardinals.  With almost identical records, the Cards and Indians (soon to be the Guardians) battle it out in this inter-league series.  The Cards took round one on Tuesday by a 4-2 final and now the second game of this series will be played under the sun in Cleveland in this matinee match-up.  RHP Zach Plesac will get his 14th start of the season for the Tribe.  Plesac likely isn't all that satisfied with his numbers to date -- 5-3 with a 4.30 ERA in 13 starts covering 75 1/3 innings -- but there is plenty of time for the 26-year-old to turn things around.  Plesac's career daytime ERA (3.42) is better than his nighttime number.  And this season that bias is much more exaggerated.  In nine nighttime starts covering 54 innings, Plesac has a 4.83 ERA however in four daytime outings covering 21 1/3 innings, that number is reduced almost two runs to 2.95.  And in his only other inter-league start in 2021, Plesac threw eight near-perfect innings (three hits) vs. the Reds on May 7.  Take Cleveland.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners.  The two starting pitchers in this game -- Seattle's Chris Flexen and Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. -- have had opposite results vs. their respective opponent in tonight's game.  Flexen's record vs. Houston is 0-2, and his ERA is 7.20, while his WHIP is an ugly 2.10.  Meanwhile, McCullers is 7-3 vs. Seattle in 14 starts (his teams are 10-4), and his ERA is 2.70 with a WHIP of 1.10.  The Astros are a solid 32-14 (+11.2 games on the moneyline) when priced from -125 to -175.  Take the Astros.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Kansas City Royals.  Dylan Cease will get his third start of the season vs. the Royals tonight.  The hard-throwing RHP had two previous outings this season vs. KC -- both at home -- so this will be his first start of the season in Kansas City.  In three prior starts at Kauffman Stadium, Cease is 2-1 although the ERA is a bit high at 4.76.  Overall, Cease's numbers vs. the Royals are very good -- 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA in six starts covering just under 32 innings.  Royals RH Brad Keller looked like a breakout candidate after a promising 2020 in which he went 5-3 with a 2.47 ERA in nine starts.  But Keller has taken a huge step backwards this season, going 7-9 with a 5.84 ERA in 20 starts while leading the league in both hits allowed (125) and base-on-balls (50).  Keller has three prior starts vs. the Sox this season and he is 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA in those.  The Royals pulled off an upset last night but despite that the Sox are still 15-5 in the last 20 meetings and 10-2 in the last 12 here in KC.  Take Chicago. 

At 7:05 pm, on ESPN-TV, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Milwaukee Brewers.  Two All Star ace right-handers go to the mound tonight in prime time as the Sox and Lance Lynn go to Milwaukee to face the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff.  At age 34 and in his 10th MLB campaign, Lynn leads all qualified AL starters with a 1.94 ERA in 17 starts covering just under 98 innings.  Woodruff's numbers are also outstanding with a 2.04 ERA in 19 starts covering 119 innings and like Lynn, he will likely be a leading candidate for the Cy Young award when all is said and done.  So on paper it's a close match-up for sure, but perhaps what sets Lynn apart tonight is his numbers vs. the Brewers -- mostly from his time spent with the Cardinals.  In 20 games vs. the Crew (16 starts) covering 102 1/3 innings, Lynn is 10-3 with a 2.20 ERA and 111 strikeouts.  In 10 games (nine starts) at Miller Park (now American Family Field), Lynn is 6-2 with a 2.37 ERA.  Despite its loss here last night, Chicago is 4-2 in the last six games in Milwaukee.  Take the Sox as a road underdog on Sunday night.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Alex Wood will take the mound for Gabe Kapler's men this afternoon, while RHP JT Brubaker will get the call for the Buccos.  Wood has given up just 7 earned runs over his last four starts (2.82 ERA), and the Giants won three of those four games.  For the season, Wood is 8-3 with a 3.77 ERA.  Brubaker has been trending in the wrong direction, as his ERA is 4.68 on the season, but 9.20 over his last three outings.  And Pittsburgh has lost each of his last seven starts.  Even worse:  the Bucs are 9-28 (minus 14.2 games on the moneyline) vs. lefties, while San Francisco is 18-9 (but +16.7 games on the moneyline) off back to back losses, and 35-15 (+12 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite!  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, on TBS Network, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees.  The Red Sox were hoping to extend their 2021 dominance over their AL East rivals yesterday and things looked good for them to do so.  But then with a 3-0 lead going into the eighth inning, the Boston bullpen suffered a rare meltdown and the Yanks plated four runs and stole a 4-3 victory here at Fenway.  The Sox look to regroup this afternoon behind their veteran southpaw starter Martin Perez.  Although the 30-year-old Venezuelan's career numbers are not all that pretty to look at, one thing Perez does have going for him today is his winning record in daytime starts.  He also was the starter here on June 25 when the Red Sox beat the Yankees, 5-3, although he did not factor in the decision that day.  Despite their comeback victory on Saturday, the Yanks are just 3-10 in the last 13 meetings with the Sox and 1-6 in the last seven here at Fenway.  Boston is also 8-2 in its last 10 home games vs. teams with a right-handed starter.  Take the Red Sox

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Miami Marlins.  Another season, another All Star campaign for Yu Darvish.  Now with his fourth MLB club, the Japanese ace is 34 years old but he is still capable of throwing some of the nastiest pitches in the game while putting up some of the best numbers.  He struggled a bit right at the end of the first half but Darvish has a way of coming on strong after the All Star Break so look for some very good things from him in the coming weeks.  Tonight, Darvish gets his second, second-half start and it comes in South Florida.  Darvish has traditionally done his best work during the day, where he has a career 3.09 ERA in 60 starts.  The Padres are 5-2 in their last seven meetings with the Marlins here in Miami, while Darvish's teams are 5-1 in his six career starts vs. the Fish.  Take San Diego.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Seattle Mariners.  RHP Chris Bassitt lost his last outing -- 4-2 vs Cleveland -- but had won his 10 prior decision (dating back to April 12).  For the season, Bassitt is 10-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.  He'll match up against Seattle's Logan Gilbert tonight.  Gilbert is 0-2, with a 6.13 ERA, in his five nighttime starts this season.  Meanwhile, Oakland is 20-4 behind Bassitt when installed as the favorite, including 6-0 this season as a road favorite.  Take Oakland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies.  With the season-ending injury to Dustin May, Trevor Bauer's administrative leave, and now the recent injury to Clayton Kershaw, the door has been opened again for Tony Gonsolin to show what he can do as a starter.  The 27-year-old RH is once more proving himself extremely valuable as a spot starter for his team with a 2.87 ERA in eight games (seven starts).  For some reason however, Gonsolin's walk rate has soared this season.  But if he can get back to the control he had in 2020 (a 1.4 walk rate), Gonsolin could be an ace in the making.  Gonsolin's strikeout numbers are impressive and that could serve him well tonight at home in his eighth start against the free-swinging Rockies.  It will be his first start vs. Colorado in 2021 but for his career, Gonsolin has a 2.40 ERA in three games -- two starts -- vs. the the Rox covering 15 innings.  Despite their win last night, the Rockies are still just 14-38 in the last 52 meetings and 17-47 in the last 64 in L.A. Take the Dodgers.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Kevin Gausman's 2021 campaign is the epitome of the term "breakout season."  2020 was okay for him -- 3-3 with 3.62 ERA in 12 games -- but you really don't know how good it could have been due to the shortened season.  But there's no question about how good the 30-year-old RH is in 2021.  Gausman leads all qualified NL starters with a 1.84 ERA in 19 starts covering just under 118 innings.  Not surprisingly he also has a stellar W-L record at 9-3.  And Gausman's hit rate of 5.1 per nine IP is also one of the best there is.  Start number 20 will come against the 37-60 Pirates.  Gausman wants some revenge for a bad beat he suffered to the Bucs.  Back on May 14, Gausman threw eight strong innings in Pittsburgh, allowing just one run on five hits with 12 K's and zero BBs.  But he got little help from his offense and the Giants lost the game, 3-2.  The Giants are 26-9 (+14 games on the moneyline) in their last 35 as a home favorite.  Take San Francisco.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland Athletics.  In his third season in the Majors, Japanese southpaw starter Yusei Kikuchi finally seems to be breaking out.  The 30-year-old finished the first half of the season with a 6-4 record and 3.48 ERA in 16 starts covering just over 98 innings, and it all culminated with his first selection to the AL All Star roster for the M's.  His second half has gotten off to a rough start, but now in his second start of the post-break season, Kikuchi gets to face an A's team he's already beaten.  On May 24, Kikuchi threw six solid innings in Oakland, allowing just one run on four hits in a 4-2 Mariners victory for his second win of the 2021 season.  He'll try to duplicate that tonight in his home park against a team that has really cooled off lately.  The A's began the season 45-27 in their first 72 games, but since June 19, they are just 11-15 and they are also 5-10 in their last 15 vs. teams with a winning record.  Despite their loss here last night, the M's are still 17-9 in their last 26 home games.  Take Seattle.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

>At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies.  The defending champs lost back to back heartbreakers to San Francisco on Wednesday and Thursday.  The culprit in both was closer Kenley Jansen, who gave up 7 runs in the 9th innings of those two games, and blew a save opportunity in each.  Tonight, the Dodgers will face an easier opponent in the Rockies, who are 9-34 on the road this season.  And L.A. has dominated Colorado, with 30 wins in the last 39 meetings, and a 15-3 record over their last 18 at home in this series.  Lefty David Price has been terrific this season, with a 2.02 ERA in his five starts, including 1.93 at home.  He faced the Rockies five days ago in Denver, and held Colorado to just 1 run and 2 hits over four innings.  Chi Chi Gonzalez will be on the mound for Colorado, and he was shellacked last week by the Dodgers, as he gave up 7 runs over 4 innings, in a 10-4 L.A. victory.  Gonzalez has a 6.58 ERA in his 8 road starts this season.  Take the Dodgers, and his teams are 0-4 in his four starts vs. the Dodgers since 2019.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers.  Things haven't exactly worked out in the W/L category for Jake Odorizzi in his first season in Houston.  The 31-year-old RHP is just 3-5 in 12 games (11 starts) covering 50 2/3 innings coming into tonight's start against the Rangers.  But Odorizzi's other numbers are solid -- a 4.09 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 8.0.  There is reason to believe that Odorizzi will improve his record in the second half.  For his career, the veteran who spent his previous seasons with the Royals (2012), Rays (2013-2017), and Twins (2018-2020) has a losing record prior to the All Star break.  But after the break, Odorizzi has a winning ledger.  These two Lone Star State teams have already played each other nine times this season and so far the home team is a perfect 9-0. Finally, the Rangers offense has decided to go to sleep following the All Star Game, having plated just five runs in their last five games and being out-scored 42-5 since the break.  Take the Astros.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago White Sox.  Despite a stellar first half that included a 7-3 record with a 2.39 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 18 games (17 starts) covering 98 innings, the Brewers' Freddy Peralta did not make the NL All Star roster -- although teammates Burnes and Woodruff did get the call.  Perhaps the most impressive of all of Peralta's stats so far this season -- and maybe the biggest reason he should've been an All Star -- is his incredible hit rate of just 4.0 per nine innings (which leads the NL).  That snub should give the 25-year-old RHP enough of a chip on his shoulder to ensure he keeps doing the same thing in the second half of the season -- and into what looks more and more like a Brewers post-season.  Peralta has done by far his best work at home in 2021 where he is 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) vs. 3-2 and 2.88 in eight road starts.  The Sox hitters have never seen Peralta before and they are 8-21 in their last 29 interleague road games vs. winning teams.  Take Milwaukee.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the St. Louis Cardinals.  Tyler Mahle will face southpaw Wade Leblanc tonight, with the Reds looking to bounce back off one of their worst losses of the season.  On Wednesday, the Mets shut them out, 7-0.  But Cincinnati is a super 22-8 off a loss by 4+ runs, and 18-9 this season after scoring less than 3 runs.  Meanwhile, the Cards are a horrible 4-15 when priced between +125 and +175 this season.  Take Cincy.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles.  Logan Webb will match up against Julio Urias tonight for the second time this season.  In the first meeting, Webb and the Giants crushed Urias and the Dodgers, 11-6.  Urias had his worst start of the season, as he gave up 7 runs, 11 hits, and 2 walks over 5 innings.  And that game wasn't altogether surprising, as Urias has not had terrific success vs. the Giants in his career.  He's made 11 starts, but Los Angeles is just 5-6 in those games.  We'll take San Francisco and Webb as a big underdog tonight, as SF is 11-5 (+10.2 games on the moneyline) this season when priced from +125 to +175, and 24-15 vs. division foes.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Kansas City Royals.  The Royals will hand the ball to Brad Keller this afternoon.  Unfortunately, Keller has a 5.97 ERA on the season, and KC has lost each of his last seven starts.  And his career ERA vs. Milwaukee is 6.97, with a WHIP of 1.64.  Eric Lauer will get the ball for the Brew Crew, and his ERA over his last three starts is a sparkling 0.98.  Moreover, in his daytime starts this season, his ERA is 2.08, with a 1.03 WHIP.  Finally, KC is a horrid 37-72 (minus 17.1 games on the moneyline) when priced from +125 to +175, and 42-71 (minus 20.2 games on the moneyline) in the afternoon, while the Brewers are 45-19 (+10.2 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite of -150 or more, and 70-46 (+17 games on the moneyline) in daytime action.  Take Milwaukee.

At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Cincinnati Reds.  With Jacob deGrom sidelined for a while -- fortunately an MRI found no structural damage to his forearm -- the rest of the rotation has to step up.  That includes veteran RH Marcus Stroman who will go to the mound this afternoon for his 20th start of the season.  Stroman's record is not where he would like it to be at 6-8, but the rest of his numbers have been very solid -- a 2.79 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and career-best 9.1 strikeout rate in 103 1/3 innings.  This will be just his second career start at Great American Ball Park but overall he has been solid in his career vs. Cincy (1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts).  In addition to deGrom, the Mets are also without star SS Francisco Lindor, but that didn't seem to matter on Monday when they exploded for 15 runs in a wild 11-inning victory.  Despite the loss on Tuesday, the Mets are 16-7 in the last 23 meetings here in Cincinnati and 5-1 in their last six road games vs. teams with winning records.  Take New York.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Mike Budenholzer's men come into this Game 6 off wins in each of the three previous games, including an upset win on Saturday night in Phoenix.  Unfortunately, Milwaukee has been consistently awful off three (or more) wins, as it's 98-166-7 ATS, including 1-9 ATS since March 24, 2021.  Even worse, if the Bucks are off an upset win, and playing a rested opponent, then they're 1-20 ATS when priced from +3 to -8 points, including 0-13 ATS their last 13.  That doesn't bode well for Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. tonight.  And neither does the fact that .667 (or worse) teams, up 3-games-to-2 in a series, are 0-9 ATS as home favorites of more than 2 points off an upset win!  The Suns are a perfect 7-0 ATS their last seven off a home upset loss.  Grab the points with Phoenix tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Atlanta Braves. The Padres offense has exploded after the All Star Break with 41 runs over three games against the Nationals. They beat Erick Fedde, 24-8; Patrick Corbin, 10-4; but lost to Max Scherzer, 8-7, after blowing a 6-4 lead in the 8th inning. The Padres typically bounce back off of blown saves, as they're 10-3 this season (and 28-16 the last three seasons), so that bodes well for Jayce Tingler's men. Tonight, Yu Darvish will come off the injured list to make his 19th start of the season. And the Padres are a super 14-4 (+6.9 games on the moneyline) in his previous outings. Darvish went on the injured list because of hip and back ailments, but looked great in his bullpen session over the weekend. Darvish will match up against Braves hurler Touki Toussaint. The Braves are an awful 34-37 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) vs. righties. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants.  Tony Gonsolin will get the start for the defending champs tonight, and the Dodgers are 5-1 in his six starts this season.  For the year, Gonsolin's ERA is 2.01 in his starts, with a 1.25 WHIP.  He'll match up against the Giants' Kevin Gausman, who will be making his seventh career start vs. Los Angeles.  Unfortunately, Gausman's teams are 2-4 in the prior six, while his ERA in those games is an elevated 3.73.  In Gausman's career, his teams have struggled on the road with him on the hill (34-59, including 12-31 (minus 16.3 games) as a road underdog priced at +150 or less).  Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 5-0 in Gonsolin's career starts, when priced as a home favorite of -125 to -175, and they're 113-47 (+20.8 games on the moneyline) in their last 160 home games.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Los Angeles Angels.  What is left for Shohei Ohtani to do this season?  The Angels' superstar has already broken the record for Major League record for home runs by a Japanese born player -- and Ohtani did it in just 81 games when Hideki Matsui needed 162 games to set the previous record (31).  Then Ohtani became the first player ever to hit and pitch in the same All Star game and he's a leading candidate for the AL MVP award.  But don't be surprised if Ohtani's second half numbers on the pitching side decline.  In his career, Ohtani's first-half ERA is 3.37, while his second-half ERA is an ugly 9.90.  This will be his 4th start at Oakland.  In his first three starts, he gave up 11 runs over 12 innings (8.25 ERA).  On the road this season, Ohtani's ERA is a nasty 6.46 (compared to 1.86 at home).  Cole Irvin will be Ohtani's mound opponent tonight, and the A's have won six of Irvin's last seven starts.  Take Oakland.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cleveland Indians.  The Astros are likely happy to be home after their series in Chicago against the White Sox.  After winning the first game on Friday, the 'Stros proceeded to lose the next two, getting crushed in the process by a combined score of 14-1.  Not to worry, Zack Greinke is available tonight in this series opener against the Indians.  Greinke just keeps getting it done year after year.  He didn't make the All Star team last week -- you could certainly argue that he should have -- but the RH is still putting up some pretty impressive numbers at the ripe-old age of 37.  In a league-leading 19 starts, Greinke is 8-3 with a 3.59 ERA in just over 115 innings.  And perhaps most importantly, Greinke is a strong second-half performer.  In 220 career games (201 starts) after the All Star break, Greinke is 93-54 (.633) with a 3.34 ERA.  Houston is 52-17 in its last 69 games as a home favorite of -200 or more, while Cleveland is 0-5 in the last five meetings and 2-5 in the last seven in Houston.  Take the Astros.

At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the St. Louis Cardinals.  Johnny Cueto may not put up the numbers he did 10 years ago, but like the Energizer Bunny, the 35-year-old RHP just keeps going and going.  Cueto hasn't had 30 starts since 2016, but with 14 at the break, he has a chance to get close this season.  More important is the fact that Cueto's 4.15 ERA is by far his best number since 2018.  He'll get his 15th start of the season this afternoon, and it comes against a team with which he's very familiar from his days in Cincinnati.  The main reason to like Cueto and the Giants today is because of what he's done in his career when pitching in the afternoon.  In 119 day starts, Cueto is 51-31 with a 2.83 ERA however in 203 nightime starts those numbers dip to 83-64 with a 3.81 ERA.  That's almost a full run higher than what he's been putting up during the day.  Take San Fran.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Milwaukee.  The Suns and Bucks have traded 2 SU/ATS wins -- each winning (and covering) the two games on their own home court.  The scene now moves back to the Valley of the Sun, and that bodes well for Phoenix.  As I mentioned in our analysis of Game 3, Phoenix has gone 35-11 SU and 30-16 ATS this season at home, while covering the point spread by an average of 3.40 ppg!  On the road, though, it's been a different story for Monty Williams' men, as the Suns have a negative point spread differential of -.02, so Phoenix's home/road differential is +3.42. Meanwhile, the Bucks' record at home this year, at Fiserv Forum, is 35-11, and they've covered the spread at home by 1.86 ppg (which very favorably compares to their negative road point spread differential of -2.66 ppg). So, when you put it all together, Milwaukee's road/home point spread differential is -4.52 ppg on the road, while Phoenix's home/road point spread differential is +3.42 -- a relative difference of +7.94.  That's the primary reason we are backing the Suns on Saturday night.  But it also bodes well that the Suns were competitive in defeat on Wednesday.  They led for much of Game 4, and only lost by six points.  This season, NBA teams off SU/ATS playoff losses by six points (or less) are 14-2 ATS.  Take the Suns to bounce back in Game 5.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Pittsburgh Pirates. What does Marcus Stroman want for the second half of the season? Well, the first thing the Mets' veteran RH wants is some revenge. Stroman ended the first half with a loss to the lowly Pirates of all teams, dropping his record for the season to 6-7. Stroman's other numbers are strong as he boasts a 2.75 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in his 18 starts covering 98 1/3 innings. Stroman's first start of the second half will give him a chance to make amends for his loss at the hands of the 34-56 Bucs last Saturday. Stroman should be able bounce back tonight against a Pittsburgh team that's just 19-25 at home so far. In addition to Stroman's loss on Saturday, the Mets also lost to the Pirates in the first half finale on Sunday, 6-2. But they are 16-9 in their last 25 when revenging a loss vs. an opponent when they were a home favorite of at least -150 (they were -185 last Sunday). Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  We played on the Bucks in Game 3, and were rewarded with a 20-point win.  But off that blowout loss, we'll take Chris Paul & Co. to bounce back on Wednesday.  The Suns are a super 20-7 ATS off a loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if their opponent is off a SU win.  Even better:  over the last 31 NBA Finals, teams off losses in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 14 points have covered 70.3% of the time away from home, including 87% if priced from +2.5 to +8.5 points.  Take the Suns as a road underdog on Wednesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns to go 'under' the total.  We played Game 3 under, and the total opened at 222.5.  It remained between 222.5 and 220.5 throughout the 3 days of betting action until 90 minutes before game time when many books dropped the line to 220.  Game 3's final score was 120-100, so it was an 'under' or a 'push' for 99+ percent of bettors.  The key to Game 3 going under was the Phoenix Suns' offensive output (or lack thereof), as they scored 18 less points than they did in either Game 1 or Game 2, when they scored 118 in each of their home games.  That actually bodes very well for another low-scoring game tonight.  In 31 years of the NBA Finals, teams that come off a loss -- which also didn't go Over the total -- where they scored 15 (or less) points than they did two games back, greatly tend to play another low-scoring game, as their next game also didn't go Over the total 83% of the time.  Even better:  Game 4s of the NBA Finals have historically been very low-scoring games, and especially in competitive series (that is, series that are not being led 3-games-to-none), as those have gone 'under' 18 of 24.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the 'under' in Game 4.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Suns drew first (and second) blood in this series with back-to-back blowout wins over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Of course, those two games were in the Valley of the Sun, where Phoenix has gone 35-11 SU and 30-16 ATS this season, while covering the point spread by an average of 3.40 ppg!  On the road, it's been a different story for Monty Williams' men, and that's the key factor for our play on the Bucks on Sunday night.  The Suns have only covered the spread by 0.36 ppg on the road this season, which is 3.04 ppg less than they do at home.  Meanwhile, the Bucks' record at home this year, at Fiserv Forum, is 33-11, and they've covered the spread at home by 1.56 ppg (which very favorably compares to their negative road point spread differential of -2.66 ppg).  So, when you put it all together, Milwaukee's home/road point spread differential is +4.22 ppg at home, while Phoenix's road/home point spread differential is -3.04 -- a relative difference of +7.26.  So, while many will overreact to the Suns' dominance on their home court, we will not.  Instead, we'll look for a reversal here, in Milwaukee.  And, for technical support, consider that home favorites (or PK) have covered the point spread 90% over the last 31 years in Game 3 of a Playoff series after losing Game 2, if their relative home/road point spread differential was at least 6 points better than their opponent's relative road/home point spread differential.  Additionally, Milwaukee is 37-12 ATS at home off back to back losses when not favored by more than 5 points.  Lay the points with Mike Budenholzer's Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns 'under' the total.  The Suns and Bucks have played all four meetings this year 'over' the total, and they've gone 'over' in all six meetings played this year, and last.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game on Sunday night, especially after the Suns scored 118 in each of the first two games of this Finals.  But consider that NBA games involving teams (like Phoenix) off back to back playoff games, where they scored more than 116 in each game, have gone 'under' the total 63.2% since 1992.  Take Game 3 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Cincinnati.  The Reds have taken the last two games of this 4-game series, but we will take Milwaukee to win this final game before the All Star Break.  The Brewers will hand the ball to All Star Brandon Woodruff, who is 7-4 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.78 ERA.  He'll match-up against Luis Castillo, who is 3-10, with a 4.81 ERA.  Castillo's worst role is as an underdog, as the Reds are 1-10 his last 11 when installed as a dog.  In sharp contrast, the Brewers are 21-4 as a home favorite with Woodruff.  Take Milwaukee.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees.  Framber Valdez is having a super season, as he is 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.  And, dating back to last season, the Astros are 11-3 in his last 14 outings.  Houston's been installed as a favorite this afternoon vs. Jameson Taillon and the Yankees.  And that bodes well, as New York is a wallet-busting 8-28 as a road underdog of +150 or less, and they are also 12-22 in day games.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays will hand the ball to veteran lefty Rich Hill this afternoon.  Hill hasn't had much success vs. the Blue Jays in his career as his ERA is north of six runs (6.06), while his WHIP is 1.47.  The Jays will start fellow southpaw Robbie Ray, who has a 3.30 career ERA vs. the Rays.  Toronto is 20-11 in day games this season.  Even better:  Robbie Ray's teams are 21-13 as a road favorite when he's been on the mound, while the Rays are 4-7 their last 11 as a home dog.  Take Toronto.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Seattle Mariners.  This will be Patrick Sandoval's second start against Seattle this season.  He struck out 10 Mariners in six innings in his first start.  And it was a quality start, as he only gave up 3 runs over those six innings.  But Seattle won, 9-5.  Since that game, Sandoval has made four starts, and the Angels are a perfect 4-0 in those games.  I look for Anaheim to win for the fifth straight time behind Sandoval tonight, as he has a 2.81 road ERA, while the Mariners' Chris Flexen's ERA vs. the Angels in his career is 6.75.  Take Anaheim.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona.  The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to southpaw Caleb Smith tonight at Chavez Ravine.  Unfortunately, Arizona has dropped his last six outings.  Even worse for Smith is that it will be Walker Buehler on the mound for Los Angeles tonight.  And Buehler's 8-1 this season (and 13-1 his last 14 decisions).  Buehler has made 10 starts in his career vs. Arizona.  The Dodgers won eight of those 10 games, and Buehler's ERA vs. Arizona is 2.47, with a WHIP of 0.87, over 58 1-3 innings.  The Diamondbacks are a wallet-breaking 18-82 (minus 42.2 games on moneyline) as an underdog of +200 (or more), while the Dodgers are 208-62 (+56.2 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite of -200 (or more).  Lay the big price with Walker Buehler.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds.  If you thought that the following first half numbers -- a 7-3 record, 2.23 ERA, 129 strikeouts and a 0.90 WHIP -- would make a starting pitcher a shoe-in for the All Star game, think again.  Those are Freddy Peralta's numbers and the 25-year-old RHP didn't get the nod.  Perhaps it's because the NL in particular is stacked this season with quality pitchers.  Or perhaps (more likely) it's because three other Brewers made the cut for next Tuesday, and two of them (Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff) are starters.  But whatever the reason, you can expect Peralta to come out tonight with a pretty big chip on his shoulder as he faces the Reds in his 17th start of the season.  It will be Peralta's fourth start of the season vs. Cincy and the Crew is 2-1 in his previous three in which he's posted a 2.87 ERA in just under 16 innings.  The Brewers are also 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. teams with a RH starter and 7-2 in their last nine vs. teams from the NL Central.  Take Milwaukee.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Texas Rangers.  James Kaprielian is a 27-year-old rookie RHP who almost nobody had heard of going into this season.  But the former 1st round draft pick of the Yankees (2015) is quickly making a name for himself with the A's this season.  Kaprielian is 4-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 10 starts covering 57 innings so far coming into tonight's start vs. Texas.  Despite his limited MLB experience, Kaprielian already has two starts this season against the Rangers and he threw quality outings in both of those.  In 12 innings vs. Texas, Kaprielian has allowed five runs with 12 strikeouts and just two walks.  Despite their loss on Friday, the A's are still 44-22 in the last 66 meetings with the Rangers and they are also 10-2 (+7 games on the moneyline) in their last 12 road games as a favorite of at least -125.  Take Oakland.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays.  Ross Stripling is starting to come on.  After his first six starts, he was 0-3, with a 7.20 ERA.  But since then, he's made eight starts, and has given up just 12 earned runs and 42 baserunners over 46 innings (2.34 ERA; 0.91 WHIP).  I look for Stripling to maintain his excellent form this afternoon, as his teams are 16-4 in his career in games after a start in which he gave up less than two earned runs.  Even better:  Stripling loves afternoon games, as his teams are 18-7 in his daytime starts (including 6-1 this year), compared to 23-26 at night.  In contrast, Stripling's mound opponent, Ryan Yarbrough has had much more success under the lights (16-10), than in the daytime (8-9).  Take Toronto this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Washington Nationals.  This is a great pitching matchup with the Nationals' Max Scherzer (who was snubbed by the All Star selection committee) going up against San Diego's Yu Darvish (who was selected to play in the All Star Game).  We'll take Darvish and the Padres tonight, as the Padres are 9-1 in Darvish's 10 home starts this season when installed as a favorite, and 15-5 in his last 20 overall, here, at Petco.  Meanwhile, Washington is a wallet-busting 10-18 as an underdog of +150 (or less).  The Nationals have only faced Darvish once before, and they were shut out, 2-0, as he threw eight scoreless innings, and struck out 12.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Phoenix.  We played on the Suns in Game 1 of this series, and were rewarded with a relatively easy 13-point win, 118-105.  Tonight, we'll switch gears and take the road underdog, as we look for Milwaukee to level the series at 1 game apiece.  Indeed, Milwaukee had the distinction in this year's Playoffs to be one of only two teams (along with the Clippers) that had a win percentage of .636 both this season, and last season.  One of the things I love to do in the NBA Finals is to take these strong teams off a SU/ATS loss, provided they're not laying more than 4 points.  Since 1991, they've covered 71.9% of the time.  That bodes well for Mike Budenholzer's men tonight.  As does the fact that Phoenix is a woeful 41-71-3 ATS as a home favorite of 2+ points off a double-digit home win, when matched up against a rested opponent.  Take the Bucks as a road underdog in Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincy Reds over the Kansas City Royals.  RHP Sonny Gray will get the start for the Reds this afternoon, and he has a super 2.08 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in six career starts vs. the Royals.  Indeed, he's won each of his last three vs. KC, as he's given up just 2 earned runs over 19 innings.  These two teams are going in opposite directions, as the Reds are 5-1 their last six, while the Royals have dropped 23 of their last 29.  With KC a wallet-busting 15-38 when priced as an underdog between +125 and +175, as well as 2-6 in Brady Singer's daytime starts, we'll take the Reds and Gray this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Washington Nationals.  The Padres lost at home to Washington last night, 7-5, as Jon Lester outdueled Joe Musgrove.  It lowered San Diego's home record this season to 30-16 (including 9-2 its last 11).  Tonight, Padres southpaw, Ryan Weathers, will take the mound for his 10th start (and 16th appearance) of the season.  For the season, Weathers has a 3-2 record, with a 2.63 ERA, and opponents are hitting just .217 against him.  The Nationals are 10-14 this season vs. lefties, while the Padres have won all three of Weathers' starts as a home favorite.  Washington will start either Paolo Espino or Erick Fedde.  Regardless of which hurler takes the mound for the Nats, we'll take the homestanding Padres.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Boston Red Sox.  This might be the best match-up in baseball this week, as it features two All Stars on the mound, with Shohei Ohtani vs. Nathan Eovaldi.  We'll take Anaheim at home, as Eovaldi has a career 4.72 ERA and 1.69 WHIP vs. the Angels.  He faced Anaheim in Boston earlier this season, and was hit hard in a 6-5 loss.  Tonight, the key factor for me is that Ohtani will be pitching with an extra day of rest.  And the Angels are 10-3 in Ohtani's career when he has pitched with an extra day or two of rest.  He also has a 1.73 ERA in seven home starts this season.  Take Anaheim.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Milwaukee.  Over the last 22 seasons, the NBA's Western conference has been dominant against the Eastern conference, as its teams have won 56.46% of the games.  And this season was no different, as the West went 242-208 (53.77%) vs. the East.  This intriguing NBA Finals match-up will pit the #2-seeded Suns (who last made the Finals in 1993) against the #3-seeded Bucks (who last made the Finals in 1974, when they were a Western conference team).  Prior to the season, I predicted the Bucks (at 13-2 odds) would win the NBA title.  Unfortunately, their best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, sustained an injury in Game 4 vs. Atlanta, so he won't be at 100%, even if he suits up for all the games.  But regardless of Antetokounmpo's health, this Game 1 is a horrible situation for the Bucks.  Indeed, Eastern conference teams are 0-12 straight-up, and 1-11 ATS since 2005 when playing away from home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals against a Western conference foe with a better record.  The closest that any of these 12 Eastern conference teams has come in Game 1 was in 2015, when Cleveland lost to Golden State by eight points, as a 6-point underdog.  And the only time an Eastern conference team has covered away from home in Game 1 since 2005 was in 2018, when the Cavs lost by 10, as a 13-point underdog to the Warriors.  Finally, each of these two finalists has done much better vs. the point spread at home, than on the road.  The Suns have covered by 3.25 ppg at home (compared to 0.36 ppg on the road), while the Bucks have covered by 1.56 ppg at Milwaukee (compared to -2.47 ppg away from home).  This is key, as NBA finalists, since 1991, have gone 9-0 SU/ATS at home in Game 1 when their home point spread differential was 1.75 ppg greater than their opponent's road point spread differential.  Take the Phoenix Suns minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Miami Marlins.  Los Angeles' nine-game win streak was snapped last night, but I love it to start a new win streak this evening.  Tony Gonsolin gets the start for the Dodgers tonight, and he's been a model of consistency.  Los Angeles has won each of his last five starts and -- importantly -- he's given up exactly one run in each of his last six starts.  For the season, Gonsolin's ERA is a solid 2.77, and LA is 4-0 this year behind him when priced from -125 to -175.  Moreover, LA is 95-52 its last 147 when priced from -125 to -175, while the Marlins are 5-12 as a home underdog in his starts.  Take Los Angeles.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles.  Steven Matz will get the start tonight for the Blue Jays -- his first career start vs. the Orioles -- while Spenser Watkins will toe the rubber for the Birds in his first career start.  Matz has done his best work away from home (i.e., away from the hitter-friendly parks in Buffalo and Dunedin) this year, as he is 6-1 on the road, with a 3.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.  The Blue Jays have done exceptionally well here at Camden Yards over the few years, as they've won eight of the last nine.  Meanwhile, the Orioles have struggled against lefties, with a 9-19 record (minus 8 games on the moneyline) this season, and a 37-66 record (minus 10.4 games on the moneyline) over the last three seasons.  Watkins, a 28-year-old career minor leaguer with over 600 innings, will be making his 2nd appearance in the Majors after throwing a scoreless inning against the Angels last week in his MLB debut.  For AAA Norfolk this season, he had a 3.58 ERA, with a 1.12 WHIP and a 27:11 strikeout/walk ratio over 32 2/3 innings.  Unfortunately, his HR/fly ball rate has been high over his last few Minor League seasons (13.33%; 20.6%), which doesn't bode well for him tonight against the homer-happy Blue Jays.  Take Toronto.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Texas.  The Mariners continue to defy preseason expectations, as they are 44-40 on the season, and just 3 1/2 games behind Tampa Bay for a wild card berth.  Chris Flexen has been a big part of the M's success this season, as he is 6-3 in 14 starts, with a nice 3.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.  He's also 3-0 in his career vs. the Rangers, with a 3.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.  Mike Foltynewicz has had a comparatively-disappointing campaign for Texas, as he has an ERA north of five runs (5.17), with a 1.34 WHIP.  Not surprisingly, his W/L record is under water, at 2-7.  And his teams are 0-3 in his three starts vs. Seattle.  Finally, the Rangers are a horrid 19-59 (minus 31.3 games on the moneyline) on the road vs. division foes, and 43-89 (minus 24 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog.  Take Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Oakland A's.  The Red Sox's 8-game win streak was snapped last night, in extra innings, by Oakland.  But with the Red Sox being installed as a slight underdog in this game, we'll take them to bounce back this afternoon.  Indeed, Boston is 53-34 as a road underdog of +150 or less, and is 24-14 in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125 (while Oakland is 19-20).  The Red Sox are also 35-20 vs. righties this season (while Oakland is just 27-24 vs. righties).  Take Boston.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies.  While many starters begin to slow down when they get into their mid-30s, Padres veteran RHP Yu Darvish just keeps on going.  Darvish is almost 35 and he's been in the league now for over 10 years but his stuff appears to be just as dominating as ever.  After leading the league with eight wins in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Darvish is already 7-2 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 16 starts covering 96 innings in 2021.  His strikeout numbers have not diminished either as Darvish is punching out guys at a rate of 11 per nine innings (the same rate he had in 2020).  Start number 17 comes against a Phillies team that Darvish has had success against.  In four career starts vs. Philly, Darvish is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in just over 25 innings.  And his ERA during the day is a half-run lower than it is at night (3.04 in 59 starts vs. 3.53 in 139 night starts).  The Pads are 12-2 (+7 games on the moneyline) in Darvish's last 14 starts as a favorite.  Take San Diego.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over Arizona.  It's awfully difficult to make a case for the Diamondbacks, who are baseball's worst team.  They did win, 5-3, yesterday against the Giants, but they've not won two in a row since May 10-11.  And since May 11, they've gone 6-41.  Southpaw Alex Wood will get the start for Gabe Kapler's Giants, and he is 6-3, with a 3.91 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season.  He's made one start already vs. Arizona (a 5-2 win), and he held the D-Backs to 2 runs over 6 innings, while striking out 7, and only allowing 5 baserunners.  Tonight, Wood will face off against Zac Gallen, who made one start earlier this season against the Giants (a 10-3 loss).  The Diamondbacks have dropped each of Gallen's last five starts, and are 3-14 in the last 17 meetings vs. San Francisco.  Even worse:  Gallen's teams are 1-8 at home in his career in full (9+ innings) games with an over/under less than 9 runs.  Take San Francisco.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Montreal Canadiens over the Tampa Bay Lightning.  After being blitzed, 5-1, in Game 1 of this series (and outshot 27-19), the Canadiens took the action to Tampa Bay in Game 2, and significantly outshot them, 43-23.  Unfortunately, the scoreboard didn't reflect that higher level of play, and Montreal lost, 3-1.  The good news is that Montreal generally bounces back off games where they outshot their opponent, but lost, as they're 12-7 this year in those situations.  Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 10-12 this year following a game where it won, but was outshot by its opponent.  Of course, 10-12 doesn't sound awful, but to the extent Tampa was favored to win 21 of those 22 games, it is.  Montreal is 35-20 after scoring less than 2 goals in its previous game, and 12-8 when playing with double-revenge.  Take the underdog Canadiens tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Atlanta Hawks.  Tuesday's 110-88 loss by Milwaukee was doubly-painful, as their best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, went down in a heap in the 3rd quarter.  So, this will be the sternest test yet for Mike Budenholzer's Bucks, as they'll have to play tonight's critical Game 5 without the services of their superstar.  But I believe they're up to the task.  The good news for Budenholzer is that they've had ample experience over the last few seasons to play games without their MVP.  This year, Milwaukee went 6-5 without him in the lineup.  Budenholzer -- a Gregg Popovich protege -- will emphasize ball movement, and player movement, and rely on his team's "corporate knowledge," system, and talent to win out.  Atlanta is a horrible 48-88-2 ATS vs. rested opponents off a 20-point (or worse) defeat, including 0-13-1 ATS on the road when priced from -2.5 to +9 points vs. .540 (or better) foes.  And NBA Playoff teams have cashed 67.8% over the last 31 seasons if they lost their previous game on the road by more than 21 points, and don't have an inferior record than their opponent.  Take Milwaukee tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the Los Angeles Clippers.  We played on the Clippers in Game 4, as they were a big road underdog, and down 2 games in the series.  Los Angeles easily won by 14, as a 6.5-point underdog (covering the spread in Game 5 by 20.5 points).  They're still down now (though only by one game), but the point spread is considerably shorter.  That's enough reason for me to take the road team in this close-out Game 6.  Indeed, road teams up 3-games-to-2 have historically done very well in Game 6, as they're 66-40 ATS, including 32-13 ATS off an ATS loss in Game 5.  Moreover, .655 (or better) teams have gone 33-15 ATS off a playoff loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 20+ points, if they were not favored by more than 1 point in the current game.  Finally, the Suns are 32-14 ATS on the road when rested, off a loss, and not getting more than three points.  And they're 57-31-1 ATS off a point spread loss by more than 20 points, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in the playoffs.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Yesterday, the Dodgers won their fourth in a row, with a 3-2 nail-biter over the Giants.  The key to the game was that the Giants were 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position.  That L.A. victory closed the gap to 2.5 games in the National League West division.  Tonight, the mound opponents will be Walker Buehler for the Dodgers vs. Kevin Gausman for the Giants.  Pitching match-ups don't get much better than this, as Gausman (8-1, 1.49 ERA) is having the best season for anyone not named deGrom, while Buehler ranks 15th with a 2.51 ERA.  We'll take Gausman as an underdog, as the Giants are 20-13 as a dog this season (+13.3 games on the moneyline), including a perfect 5-0 when Gausman has been the starter.  One of those underdog starts was here, in Chavez Ravine, back on May 30.  The Giants were +155, and won 5-4, behind six shutout innings from Gausman.  Buehler has also made one start here, at home vs. San Francisco this season, and the Giants won that game, 8-5, as a +171 underdog.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Phoenix Suns.  Phoenix leads this series three-games-to-one, even though it has been outscored 403-400 in the four games.  Certainly, with just a little more good fortune, the Clippers could be tied, or even leading this series.  We'll grab the points with Los Angeles, as teams down 3-games-to-1 that have actually outscored their opponent over the three previous games combined, have gone 14-7 ATS in the NBA playoffs since 1991.  Even better:  .600 (or better) underdogs of more than 5 points, off a loss, and down exactly two games in a playoff series, have gone 7-0 ATS away from home since 2015, and 22-7 ATS since 1993.  The Clippers are 30-12 ATS away from home off a straight-up loss.  Take LA + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Angels.  The Angels snapped their five-game losing streak yesterday, with a 6-4 win over the Rays.  But I look for their success to be short-lived, as they've had scant success vs. winning teams, as they're 60-97 (minus 23 games on the moneyline) their last 157.  Michael King will get the start tonight for the Yankees, and he comes into this game off back-to-back starts won by the Yankees (against Kansas City and Toronto).  We played on the Yankees in that 6-5 victory vs. KC, and will play on King again tonight.  His mound opponent will be RHP Dylan Bundy, who has a 6.68 ERA this season, and a 7.50 ERA over his last three starts.  He also is 2-6 in his career vs. New York, with a 6.46 ERA and 1.58 WHIP (including an 8.05 ERA and 1.63 WHIP at Yankee Stadium).  Finally, when installed as an underdog, Bundy's teams have gone 24-46 (minus 14.7 games on the moneyline) in his career.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the San Francisco Giants.  Based on the way these two Bay Area rivals are playing, would anyone be surprised if they met in the World Series for the first time since Oakland swept the Giants four-games-to-none in 1989?  Tonight's match-up features SF's southpaw, Alex Wood vs. righty Frankie Montas of the A's.  We'll take the underdog A's tonight, as Oakland is 29-22 (+14 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog of +150 or less.  And it's 11-2 this season on the road vs. lefty starters.  Alex Wood has made three career starts vs. Oakland, but has had scant success, as he's 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP.  And Wood's ERA over his last four starts is a horrid 8.50, with a 1.61 WHIP.  Take the underdog A's tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs.  With the season-ending injury to Dustin May, the Dodgers have called upon swing man Tony Gonsolin to start games for them.  Last season, Gonsolin posted a 2.31 ERA in nine outings (eight starts) covering just under 47 innings and he finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting.  The 27-year-old RHP has been used essentially as an opener, not going more than 3 2/3 innings in any of his three starts this season so far.  Start number four will come at home tonight where Gonsolin has a career 3-1 record and 2.08 ERA.  That home number is more than a full run lower than Gonsolin's ERA away from Dodger Stadium (3.10).  This will be Gonsolin's first career appearance vs. the Cubs.  The Dodgers have won all three of Gonsolin's starts this season and they are 6-2 in his eight career starts at Dodger Stadium.  RH Jake Arrieta will go for the Cubs who are 4-10 in Arrieta's last 14 starts as a road underdog.  Take the Dodgers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Atlanta.  The #5-seeded Hawks are trying to win their 3rd straight NBA Playoff series without home court advantage -- something which rarely happens in the chalk-heavy NBA.  Atlanta won Game 1 outright, 116-113, as an 8-point road favorite.  But my money is against the Hawks duplicating that feat tonight.  Indeed, NBA teams, seeded #5 or worse, off back to back playoff wins, are a poor 2-34 SU and 7-29 ATS away from home as an underdog of more than 7 points, including 0-8 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back road games.  That doesn't bode well for Atlanta tonight.  Nor does the fact that Milwaukee is a reliable 28-3 SU and 23-8 ATS as a home favorite of 4 (or more) points off a straight-up loss, including 9-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  The Bucks know that they need to win tonight's game, lest they be forced to win at least 2 of 3 games on Atlanta's home court (a venue where Atlanta is 22-4 SU its last 26).  Take Milwaukee minus the points in this critical Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Atlanta.  Before the start of the season, I published my NBA futures selection, and predicted the Milwaukee Bucks (at 13-2 odds) would win the NBA title.  But, for much of the season, it did not look like it would come to fruition, as the Bucks, frankly, underwhelmed.  After finishing with the #1 margin of victory in each of 2019 (8.87), and 2020 (10.08), the Bucks took a major step back this season, and only outscored their opponents by 5.89 points per game.  Still, that was good enough for #1 in the Eastern Conference, and #3, overall.  Indeed, only the Utah Jazz (9.25) and Los Angeles Clippers (6.18) ranked ahead of the Bucks at the end of the regular season.  Atlanta, meanwhile, was a distant ninth (2.32).  It's true that the Bucks were unceremoniously bounced out of the playoffs the past two seasons, notwithstanding their #1 ranking in victory margin.  The Toronto Raptors eliminated the Bucks in 2019, while Miami sent the Bucks packing last season.  But a primary reason for Milwaukee's failures was its subpar play away from home.  However, when playing in front of its home faithful, Milwaukee has actually maintained its strong regular season numbers in the playoffs.  Including this season (and dating back to 2018), Milwaukee is 14-2 straight-up, and 11-5 ATS at home, and has covered the spread by an average of 5.47 ppg.  This season, Milwaukee took 2 of the 3 meetings vs. Atlanta, including the only meeting here, in Milwaukee (129-115, on Jan. 24).  The Hawks did defeat the Bucks, as a 5.5-point home underdog, in the most recent meeting (on April 25).  But that's not necessarily a good thing as, in the NBA semi-finals or finals, revenge-minded teams have gone 13-0 ATS at home in the first game of a Playoff series, if they were not getting 4+ points.  Moreover, Atlanta is a wallet-busting 46-76-1 ATS on the road if it upset its opponent in the previous meeting.  Finally, the Hawks are a horrid 7-32 SU and 8-31 ATS on the road when priced from +4.5 to +9.5 points.  Take the Bucks minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Kansas City Royals.  The pitching matchup in the Bronx tonight will feature righty Michael King for New York, and lefty Danny Duffy for the Royals.  We'll take the homestanding Pinstripes, as Duffy hasn't had much success vs. New York in his career.  He's made nine starts, and owns a nasty 5.23 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 43 innings.  Today, Duffy will be on a short leash, as he's making his first start since going on the Injured List with a strained left forearm.  It's estimated that he will throw no more than 65 pitches.  Meanwhile, King is starting to adjust to his newfound role as a starting pitcher in the Yankees' rotation.  A sinkerballer, King has improved his command this season, which has lowered his flyball rate, as well as his ERA (7.76 last season; 4.08 in 2021).  One advantage for King tonight is that (with the exception of Alberto Hanser), none of the Royals hitters have ever batted against him before.  New York is 15-5 the last 20 meetings at home vs. Kansas City.  Take the Yankees to blow out the Royals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Dylan Cease will get the start for the Pale Hose this afternoon, as Chicago will attempt to snap its 5-game losing streak.  Cease has been brilliant this season in his daytime starts, as he has a 2.87 ERA over those six starts, with a 1.34 WHIP.  And he's also been spotless in Interleague action this season (0.00 ERA; 0.66 WHIP).  He'll match up against Pirates righty Chase de Jong, and Chicago has been installed as a mid-sized road favorite.  That bodes well for Chicago today, as it's 53-19 (+25 games on the moneyline) its last 72 when priced from -125 to -175, while the Pirates are 20-46 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) when priced from +125 to +175.  Even better for Chicago:  de Jong's teams are 0-4 in his career starts when priced as an underdog of +150  (or more).  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  It's a rare feat for an MLB team to have three starters selected to the All Star team in the same season.  But the Brewers could achieve that in less than a month with their "Big Three" of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta.  Each one of them certainly has the numbers to warrant serious consideration to make the trip to Denver for the Mid-summer Classic.  Meanwhile, the first place Brewers have more important things to worry about and those three starters are likely going to be the key to them staying atop the division.  Peralta will get his 14th start tonight and it comes against the worst team -- statistically at least -- in the Majors so the 25-year-old RHP has an excellent chance to pick up his seventh win of the season (against two losses).  Peralta has a 2.23 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and league-best 4.3 hit rate in his 75 innings of work.  Despite their loss last night, the Brewers are still 17-6 in the last 23 meetings with Arizona.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over San Francisco.  Lefty Andrew Heaney has been strong of late, as he's given up just 5 runs over his last three starts, covering 18 innings (2.50 ERA).  And he's struck out 20 batters (against just 20 baserunners) in those three games (1.11 WHIP).  One of those games was against this Giants team.  And Heaney dominated San Francisco on the road in that contest, as he gave up just 1 run in 6 1-3 innings, in an 8-1 Angels victory.  The Angels are a super 178-134 (+35 games on the moneyline) in interleague games, and we'll back them tonight at home.  Take the Angels.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The ChiSox will hand the ball to their big right-hander, Lucas Giolito, tonight, and they've won five of his last six starts.  Giolito has a nice 3.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season, but he's been at his best at night (2.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP), and in Interleague starts (1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP).  Giolito's mound opponent tonight will be southpaw Tyler Anderson, who has lost his last four decisions.  His ERA on the season is 4.89, but it's 5.71 over his last three starts, and 5.36 at night.  Even worse:  Chicago dominates lefty starters, as it is 33-5 the past two seasons in games started by southpaws.  Take the White Sox.