Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Buffalo Sabres.  Last night, the Isles were stunned, 4-2, by Buffalo, as Michael Houser -- a career-minor league goalie -- won his NHL debut.  In that game, Houser stopped 34 New York shots, and the Sabres fought back from a 2-0 second period-deficit to garner the victory.  That win snapped the Sabres 4-game losing streak.  Unfortunately, though, it's 1-10 its last 11 off a win, 11-27 off a win by 2+ goals, and 21-38 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) after scoring more than three goals in its previous game.  With the Isles 10-2 in the last 12 meetings, we'll the New York tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the New York Knicks.  The Knicks won (and covered) again on Sunday, as they blew out the Houston Rockets, 122-97.  That was New York's 14th ATS win in its last 15 games played.  Tonight, New York will be saddled with playing without rest, while Memphis will be rested following its shocking loss on Saturday at Orlando.  Memphis was up by nine points entering the 4th quarter, but fell, 112-111, to the Magic.  But off that loss, Memphis falls into an 83% ATS (since 1991) system of mine which has won 14 in a row.  Even better:  the Grizzlies lost in overtime, 133-129, earlier this year at New York (also blowing a 15-point lead in that game), but are 36-21 ATS, 63%, when playing with revenge from an upset defeat.  Meanwhile, the Knicks are 4-14 ATS, 22%, on the road vs. a foe it upset in the previous meeting.  And, finally, revenge-minded teams that gave up 125+ points in an upset loss are 102-68 ATS, 60%, when playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  With Memphis in off a game where they blew a big lead, and playing with revenge against an opponent that also mounted a big comeback win, I fully expect the Grizzlies to be ultra-focused tonight.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Damian Lillard & Co. went into Beantown yesterday, and upended the Celtics at TD Garden, 129-119. That was Portland's 4th straight win (and cover), which sets up our play tonight.  The Hawks have been dominant over the years here, in Atlanta, vs. opponents off 4+ wins, as they're 72-46 ATS, including 28-8 ATS vs. unrested foes.  And they're also 41-27 ATS at home when rested, and not laying 7+ points vs. unrested Western conference foes.  Finally, the Blazers are a wallet-busting 13-30 ATS vs. revenge-minded, winning Eastern conference foes when Portland isn't getting 3+ points.  Take the Hawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over New York.  The Knicks come into this game off a 17-point blowout win over Chicago at Madison Square Garden - their 13th ATS win in 14 games.  But this will be a difficult task for New York as it's favored by a huge amount on the road.  And it's the biggest number New York has been favored by on the road since March 21, 2014, which is troubling considering the fact that it's 6-18 ATS its last 24 as a road favorite of more than 6 points.  We played against Houston last night, and got the $$$ with Miami, in a 26-point blowout.  The Rockets will once again play at home tonight, and we'll grab the points with Houston, as I look for them to bounce back today.  Indeed, home teams that lost by 15+ points at home the previous day, have cashed 69% since 1990 when matched up against opponents off a SU/ATS home win.  Take the Rockets + the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Charlotte.  Miami won its second straight game last night, with a 124-107 blowout of Cleveland.  It will seek its 3rd straight win and cover tonight, as it travels to Charlotte to play the Hornets.  It's true that Charlotte has defeated Miami in each of the first two meetings this season.  But double-revenging road favorites (or PK) have cashed 59% in the regular season since 1990 if they were off a SU win.  Take Miami.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Sacramento.  These two teams met six days ago, and the Mavs were upset on the road, 113-106, by Sacramento.  Dallas hasn't lost since, and it eked out a 1-point win against Washington last night.  Today, Dallas will go for its 4th straight win and cover, and has been installed as a big favorite vs. the Kings, who upset the Lakers on Friday.  Unfortunately for Sacramento, it's covered just 50 of 122 games off a win, if it was a road underdog against a revenge-minded foe.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 goals over Detroit.  Yesterday, the Red Wings upset Tampa, 1-0, in a shootout.  But the final score belied the complete dominance by the Lightning.  Tampa outshot Detroit by a 33-15 count, which only tells part of the story.  Bad luck befell the Lightning, as they hit four posts, and also had a goal overturned due to goaltender interference.  The result was a shutout defeat.  But that bodes well for the Lightning this afternoon, as they're 27-4 in their last 31 games after scoring less than two goals.  Take Tampa Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  These two Western conference rivals are battling it out for 3rd place, so this game will go a long way toward determining the teams' playoff seeding.  We'll go against Denver off its double-digit victory against Toronto, and take Los Angeles to bounce back off its 109-101 defeat at Phoenix on Wednesday.  That was the Clippers' second straight defeat.  But each of those losses was on the road; tonight's game is at home.  And L.A. is a solid 45-20 ATS off a loss, including 10-1 ATS when favored by 7 or less points against a winning team.  Meanwhile, Denver is a horrid 15-38 ATS away from home off a win by 9+ points.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over Arizona.  Last night, the Coyotes shut out Vegas, 3-0, here in Phoenix.  We'll take Vegas in this rematch, as it's 45-25 off a road defeat, including 15-3 if it lost its previous game to a division rival.  Moreover, after scoring less than two goals in its previous game, Vegas is 37-18 its last 57, including 10-4 off a shutout defeat.  Take the Golden Knights.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met three weeks ago, and Minnesota thoroughly embarrassed New Orleans, 135-105, as an 8-point underdog.  That 30-point loss was the first time in franchise history that New Orleans lost by 30+ points as a favorite of -5 (or more) points.  But we'll lay the points with the Pelicans tonight, as favorites have covered 62.6% since 1990 when playing with revenge from a 15-point (or worse) upset loss as an 8-point (or greater) favorite.  Take New Orleans.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the St. Louis Blues.  The Blues have certainly had the Wild's number, of late.  St. Louis not only won the first two games of this 3-game set, but also won two other games earlier in April, for a 4-game win streak vs. Minnesota, overall.  But I love the Wild to snap this losing streak tonight, as it's a solid 26-11 when playing with revenge from four losses, and a perfect 6-0 this season off back to back defeats.  Take Minnesota.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Houston.  The Rockets come into this game off an upset win over the Milwaukee Bucks, 143-136, while Golden State checks in off 2 SU/ATS losses.  We'll lay the points with the Warriors tonight, as Golden State is 33-17 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, if it was playing an opponent off a win.  Even better:  NBA home teams not favored by 7+ points, have cashed just 32% since 1991 off an upset home win as a 7-point (or greater) underdog, if they were playing an opponent off a SU loss in their current game.  Take the Warriors.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Milwaukee Brewers.  Dustin May will get the start for the champs tonight, and he will no doubt want a better result than the one he was dealt in his last start.  That was six days ago against the Padres.  May pitched six innings, and gave up just one run, on two hits, with 10 strikeouts.  Yet the Dodgers lost that game, 8-7, in extra innings.  May has a more-than-respectable 2.53 ERA on the season, in four starts.  But he only has one win to show for it.  I expect him to get back into the 'win column' on this Saturday, as the Dodgers are a fantastic 14-7 in his 21 career starts, and 20-8 (+9 games on the moneyline) off back to back losses.  Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Brandon Woodruff, has a career ERA of 6.96 in his starts vs. Los Angeles.  Take the Dodgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Capitals over the Pittsburgh Penguins.  These two played a classic Caps-Pens game on Thursday, with the Pens winning in overtime, after 60 minutes of back-and-forth hockey with basically the same number of shots on each side.  So if the Caps need something to swing it to their favor tonight in the rematch, then perhaps that something just might be named Alex Ovechkin.  Ovechkin hasn't played since April 22 due to a lower body injury, but he may make his return tonight.    Meanwhile, the Penguins will still be without star center Evgeni Malkin, who is out indefinitely with a lower body injury.  This is a super situation for Washington, which is a perfect 8-0 in its last eight games revenging a home loss vs. an opponent.  And the Penguins are 10-13 (-10 games on the moneyline) in their last 23 games off a road win against a division rival.  Take the Caps.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  We're coming down to the wire in this NBA season, so this game will go a long way toward determining the #1 seed in the Playoffs.  Currently, Utah resides in first place, while Phoenix is just one game behind.  This has been an underdog-oriented series of late, as the dog has cashed each of the last four meetings.  Tonight, Utah's the underdog, primarily because it will play without All Stars Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley.  But there's still enough firepower on Utah's roster to get the 'W.'  Indeed, the Jazz scored 154 points on Wednesday (the most points scored by an NBA team this season), in a 49-point blowout of the Sacramento Kings.  We played on the Jazz in that game, and will come right back with them tonight.  For technical support, consider that .720 (or better) NBA road underdogs of 2+ points have covered 73.6% in the regular season since 1990 when playing with double revenge.  Take the Jazz + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the San Jose Sharks.  The Avalanche lost, 5-2, on Wednesday to their biggest rivals in the Division -- the Golden Knights.  And that defeat placed Colorado  six points behind Vegas for first place.  With only one game left to play vs. the Knights, it's imperative that the Avs win games like the one they're playing tonight.  The Sharks are just 20-24-5 and sit 21 points behind Colorado, so they're not a threat but can still play the role of spoiler.  The good news is that the Avs have dominated this series recently, winning five of the last six meetings overall and going 5-0 in the last five here at Ball Arena.  The Avs are also dangerous right after they get beat like they did on Wednesday.  In their last 13 games following a loss by three or more goals, the Avs are 11-2.  Meanwhile, the Sharks are 7-12 (-6 games on the moneyline) in their last 19 immediately off a win against a division rival.  Take Colorado.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Two nights ago, the Thunder snapped their 14-game losing streak with an upset win over the Boston Celtics.  But off that rare victory, we'll fade OKC as a home underdog on Thursday.  Indeed, home dogs of +8 (or more) points off an upset win have covered just 33% since 1991 vs. non-division foes off a straight-up loss.  Take the Pelicans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings upset Dallas, 113-106, on Monday, while the Jazz come into this game off back to back upset losses -- both to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  We played on Utah in its last game and (unfortunately) lost.  But we'll come right back with the Jazz tonight, as Sacramento is a terrible 19-40 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, when it is playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss.  And NBA favorites are 71.1% ATS since 1991 off a SU loss as a double-digit road favorite, if they're playing an opponent off a win.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Arizona Diamondbacks. NOTE: There's been a pitching change on the Arizona side, but we will still be on San Diego with David Weathers. We played on the Padres and Weathers last Friday as a +160 underdog vs. the Dodgers, and got the $$$ in a 3-2 victory. Here, the Padres have been installed as a road favorite vs. Arizona, and we'll once again back the rookie southpaw. Weathers has been sensational in his two starts, as he has yet to allow a run, and has surrendered just two hits and three walks in 9 1/3 innings. And both of those starts were against the best team in baseball -- the Los Angeles Dodgers -- and also one of the best pitchers, Walker Buehler. Tonight, Weathers will get a relative breather by facing Arizona and Riley Smith. Take the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over Edmonton.  The Oilers thrashed the Jets on Monday, 6-1.  And that was Winnipeg's fourth straight defeat, overall.  But the Jets have generally been a reliable bet to bounce back off a bad game, as they're 59-35 (+24 games on the moneyline) off a loss, and 21-14 (+9 games on the moneyline) off a loss by 4+ goals.  That bodes well for the Jets on Wednesday.  As does the fact that Edmonton is a soft 45-61 (-20 games on the moneyline) after scoring 6+ goals in its previous game.  Take Winnipeg.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Cincinnati Reds.  We were 7-2 yesterday, but one of our two defeats was in this match-up.  Cincinnati came back to win that game, 6-5.  And that was the 2nd straight loss suffered by the Dodgers.  We'll once again back the defending champs here, at home, as they'll hand the ball to their veteran lefty, Clayton Kershaw.  Although Kershaw stumbled in his first start of the season, in hitter-friendly Colorado, he's been lights-out since.  In his last four starts, he's surrendered just 4 runs and 16 hits in 26 innings, with 29 strikeouts and just 3 walks.  He'll face Cincy's RHP, Sonny Gray, who comes into this game off a loss at St. Louis, in which he gave up 5 runs, and 9 baserunners in just 3 2-3 innings.  Gray's ERA on the season is 7.87, and his WHIP is a dreadful 2.12.  One of Kershaw's best situations, historically, has been pitching in the daytime, as the Dodgers are 80-28 (+35 games on the moneyline) in his daytime starts.  Meanwhile, the Reds are an awful 34-56 (minus 26 games on the moneyline) in the afternoon.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Dallas Stars.  The Hurricanes lost here last night, 4-3, in overtime.  But off that defeat, we'll take the visitors in this rematch.  Carolina is 8-1 on the road following a 1-goal loss to a division rival.  And it's also 10-6 off a loss, generally.  Meanwhile, the Stars are a poor 29-39 (minus 20 games on the moneyline) after back-to-back division wins.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Nashville Predators.  The Preds blew out the Panthers, 4-1, last night.  But that big loss places Florida in several of its best situational roles tonight, and Nashville in its worst.  To wit:  Florida is 31-16 its last 47 after allowing 4+ goals in its previous game.  And it's 13-5 its last 18 off a loss.  With respect to the Predators, they're 22-36 (minus 26 games on the moneyline) off back to back wins.  And they're a soft 17-25 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) after allowing less than 3 goals in each of their two previous games.  Take Florida to bounce back on Tuesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Toronto.  These Atlantic division rivals met six days ago here, in Tampa (the Raptors' home base for the season), and the Raptors prevailed, 114-103.  That game, though, was a good set-up for Toronto, as it was well-rested, while the Nets had played the previous night.  And neither Kevin Durant nor James Harden played for Brooklyn in that game.  Durant is healthy again, and Brooklyn is currently riding a two-game win streak, with impressive wins over Boston and Phoenix.  The Nets are a super 44-21 ATS on the road when playing with revenge.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins.  Last night, the Marlins were the first team to find success against Milwaukee RHP Corbin Burnes, as they ran roughshod over the Brewers, 8-0.  But off that blowout loss, we'll back Adrian Houser and the Brew Crew tonight, as Milwaukee's 68-35 (+26 games on the moneyline) when playing with revenge from a home upset loss, while Miami is an atrocious 34-59 (minus 22 games on the moneyline) after scoring 8+ runs.  Additionally, Milwaukee is a solid 256-136 (+23 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite priced at -150 (or higher), while Miami is a poor 108-177 (-20 games on the moneyline) as a road dog priced from +125 to +175.  Take Adrian Houser and the Brewers today.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Charlotte.  The Bucks were stung by the Hornets in the last meeting, as Charlotte upset them, 127-119.  But with revenge on its mind, and also off an upset loss in its previous game, we'll look for Milwaukee to bounce back this evening.   And Charlotte's win a few weeks ago must be taken with a grain of salt, as Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play in that game.   But the MVP is back on the court now, and scored 31 points on Sunday vs. Atlanta.  Milwaukee's 45-20 ATS as a road favorite, priced from -5.5 to -10.5 points, while Charlotte is a horrible 46-89 ATS at home vs. non-division foes playing back to back road games, if such foe failed to cover the spread in its previous game.  Lay the points with the Bucks.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the Indiana Pacers.  Portland plays this game with revenge from a 24-point upset home loss to these Pacers on January 14.  And that bodes well for the Blazers, as they've cashed 75% over the last 31 years as a favorite of -2 (or more) points, when playing with revenge from a double-digit home loss.  And, notwithstanding its loss to Indiana in January, the Trail Blazers are still 13-3 ATS vs. the Pacers in the last 16 meetings, including 6-1 here in Indianapolis, and 7-0 ATS if Indy was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with Portland.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Pittsburgh Penguins.  These two teams played about as close a game as can be played on Sunday with the Penguins finally prevailing, 1-0 at home.  The rematch is tonight and you can bet that with the Bruins falling even further behind in the East -- and with the Rangers trailing them by only four points -- the visitors will come out much more physically than they did in the first game.  Despite the loss, Boston still has the upper hand in the season series, leading four games to three with tonight being the last meeting of the season.  However, Pittsburgh is still without the services of Evgeni Malkin, a critical piece of the Penguins' overall structure (and Malkin hasn't played a game since March 16 against these Bruins).  When teams hold the Bruins' offense down, the Bruins typically rebound in the next game, going 8-1 in their last nine immediately after scoring two goals or less.  Boston is also 6-0 in its last six following two or more consecutive losses.  Take the Bruins.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Washington Capitals.  The Caps did what no other team has been able to do this season, and that's to hand the Islanders back-to-back home losses.  Tonight's game will instead be played in the nation's capital, and we'll back the revenge-minded Islanders.  New York is a solid 16-6 when playing with revenge from a home loss, and 26-16 off back-to-back losses.  Take the Islanders.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Arizona Coyotes.  Tonight, the Sharks will try to snap their losing streak, which reached 8 games with their 6-3 home loss to the Minnesota Wild on Saturday.  Meanwhile, their opponent tonight, Arizona, comes into this game off a 4-0 shutout of the Los Angeles Kings at Staples Center.  Unfortunately, the Coyotes are a poor 36-62 (minus 22 games on the moneyline) off a division win, and 35-61 (minus 18 games on the moneyline) off a road win.  Additionally, San Jose generally rebounds off blowout home losses, as it's 71-48 (+20 games on the moneyline) off a home loss by more than two goals.  Take the Sharks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met two nights ago in Salt Lake City, and the T-Wolves stunned the Jazz, 101-96, as a 12-point underdog.  And even more stunning is the fact that the 17-44 Timberwolves also defeated the 44-16 Jazz in the season's first meeting -- also in Salt Lake -- as a 9.5-point underdog, 116-111.  But with revenge from those two losses, we'll lay the points with Utah tonight, as double-revenge-minded road teams have cashed 90% over the last 31 seasons if they owned a win percentage at least 33% greater than their opponent.  Even worse for the T-Wolves:  in the regular season, teams playing back to back games against the same opponent are a horrible 23.8% ATS since 1995 if they won the first meeting on the road as an underdog of 7 (or more) points.  As faithful followers know, I love playing against bad teams off wins.  And Minnesota is a wallet-breaking 5-17-1 ATS off an upset win, including 0-12 ATS when priced as an underdog from +6 to +17 points.  Take Utah to blow out Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over New York.  The Knicks come into this game off nine straight wins, including double-digit upset wins over Atlanta (137-127) and Toronto (120-103) in their last two.  Unfortunately for New York, underdogs off back to back double-digit upset wins, in which they scored 120+ points, have gone 0-10 ATS.  Take Phoenix to blow out New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Dallas Stars.  If not for two overtime losses to two of the best teams in Division, the Hurricanes would be 5-0 in their last five games coming into tonight.  On April 19, the 'Canes dropped a tough 3-2 decision to the Lightning and then on the 24th, they lost 4-3 in OT, this time to the Panthers.  They revenged the Tampa loss one night later on April 20.  But they won't get the chance to do the same thing to Florida as, instead, the Canes have to travel to Dallas to take on the Stars.  This is a great match-up for Carolina, which is 5-1 in the last six meetings with Dallas going back to the start of the season.  The Hurricanes are also a solid 14-6 in their last 20 games coming off a one-goal loss to a division rival, and 10-5 in their last 15 coming off a loss.  Take Carolina.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  The Lakers come into tonight's game on a 3-Game SU/ATS losing streak.  But those three losses were to the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks (twice).  Tonight's game is against the Orlando Magic, who are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak (and who have lost 11 of their last 12 games).  The problem for the Magic is that they've had a "red carpet" defense of late.  Four of their last five opponents have shot 50% from the floor.  The Magic are an atrocious 4-17-1 ATS at home vs. foes off a loss, including 1-10-1 ATS as an underdog.  Lay the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Atlanta.  These two teams have already met twice this season, with each game won by the Hawks.  But both games were competitive (Detroit lost by eight, 128-120, on December 28, and in overtime on January 20), and both games were in Atlanta.  Tonight's game is in the Motor City, and we'll grab the points with the home underdog.  The Pistons are competing hard this season for coach Dwane Casey, and they're at their best when they're off an ATS loss, as they're 20-5 ATS in that situation, including 8-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Atlanta will be at a scheduling disadvantage tonight, as it will be unrested, and playing its 3rd game in four nights (and fifth game in seven nights).  Meanwhile, the Pistons are rested.  And revenge-minded NBA teams off a loss have cashed 59.2% ATS vs. unrested foes off a win that were playing their 3rd game in four nights.  Take the Pistons.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the St. Louis Blues.  The Avs, Knights, and Wild have all locked up a spot in the post-season but that doesn't mean they can cruise for the next eight games.  Vegas has wrested first place away from Colorado and that could be a big deal with the likelihood of fans in the stands come playoff time.  So don't look for the Avs to take a breather heading into the final 18 days of the season as they desperately would like to leapfrog the Knights to get back into first place.  They are looking for revenge tonight in the third game of a three-game set in St. Louis.  This is the rubber match, as Colorado took the first one on Thursday, then the Blues returned the favor on Saturday, scoring five goals in the process.  That loss snapped a five-game win streak for the Avs who are hoping to get more players back from the COVID-19.  The win on Saturday also snapped five straight for the Avs in this series.  For technical support, consider that the Avs are 11-0 in their last 11 when revenging a same-season loss vs. an opponent.  Take Colorado.

At 3:05 pm, on NBC TV, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Pittsburgh Penguins.  There are few teams in the league as hot as the Penguins right now.  Pittsburgh has won six of its last eight games and it's been having all of this success despite the loss of C Evegeni Malkin who continues to miss time due to a lower body injury.  The Pens actually took over first place in the East briefly after they beat the Devils yesterday afternoon -- that is, until the Caps won later in the day and jumped back on top.  Boston currently sits in fourth place, six points behind the Caps.  But Boston has also played two less games than each of the other three contenders.  Don't be surprised if the final eight games is a real back-and-forth between the Caps, Pens, Bruins, and Isles who have separated themselves from the rest of the pack in their Division.  So this is a quick turnaround for the Pens.  The Bruins come into today's game also off a loss to the Sabres but they are still 21-10 in the last 31 meetings with the Pens.  Take Boston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Charlotte.  This series has been dominated lately by the Celtics, as they've won the last four meetings by 21, 26, 17 and 30 points.  Even better for Boston:  it's 16-3-1 ATS over the last 20 meetings, including 10-1 ATS if the Hornets were off a win, and 7-0 ATS if Boston was laying 7+ points.  Boston does come into this game off a SU/ATS loss to the Brooklyn Nets, but it's a solid 34-18-2 ATS as a rested favorite, away from home, off a loss.  Meanwhile, the Hornets are a wallet-busting 24-47-2 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, if matched up against a rested, non-division foe off a loss.  Lay the points with the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Rookie southpaw Ryan (son of David) Weathers earned another start after his solid performance last week vs. the Dodgers (and mound opponent, Walker Buehler).  In that game -- the first of 19 regular season games between these SoCal rivals -- Weathers gave up 0 ER in 3 2-3 innings, and allowed just 1 hit and 2 walks.  San Diego ended up falling to the Dodgers, 11-6, in extra innings, and lost two of the three games in that series.  We played on the Padres as a home underdog in the third game of that series against the Dodgers' Trevor Bauer, and got the $$$ when the Padres pulled off the mild upset.  San Diego is a bigger underdog today.  Indeed, it's the biggest price on San Diego yet this season.  And we'll take the live underdog, as the Padres are 10-9 (+7.4 games on the moneyline) when priced as a road underdog of +150 or more.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Miami Marlins.  Whereas NL teams like the Braves, Cardinals, and Nats have struggled this season, the Giants and Marlins have done much better than expected.  The Giants even have a winning record.  And even though the Marlins are still under the .500 mark, they are very close and seem like they've been in just about every game they've played regardless of the outcome.  For the Giants, they're finding success with their veterans leading the way...guys like Posey, Belt, and Cueto.  On the other hand, it's been mostly young guns for the Fish.  So it's fitting that tonight's pitching match-up features an eight-year MLB veteran for the Giants in RH Aaron Sanchez vs. a second-year rookie in LH Daniel Castano.  It's true that Sanchez is still looking for his first win of 2021, but he has pitched well enough to have at least two victories at this point, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his three starts covering just under 15 innings.  It won't hurt Sanchez tonight that Oracle Park has not been friendly to the Fish lately, as Miami is just 1-4 in its last five tries here.  Take the Giants.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Detroit.  This game will be the 2nd in two nights for Detroit, and also its fifth game in seven nights.  Unfortunately for Detroit, the Spurs have generally done well vs. unrested teams, as they've gone 100-73 ATS.  But those numbers zoom to 25-9 ATS if the Spurs are off an upset loss, including 5-1 ATS if San Antonio's foe was playing its fifth game in seven nights.  Last night, Gregg Popovich's crew were embarrassed here, at home, by the Miami Heat, 107-87.  We'll play on the Silver and Black to rebound this evening, as San Antonio is 41-12-2 ATS as a favorite off a loss by more than 17 points, when matched up against a foe off an ATS win.  Take San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Seattle Mariners.  Here are two teams that were expected to be also-rans in their respective divisions.  It's early, but so far the Mariners and Red Sox have been two of the biggest surprises in the AL this season.  Seattle is 11-7 and sitting fairly comfortably in second place in the West while the Red Sox, at 12-7, are all alone atop the East.  Boston is pretty good at grabbing starting pitchers off the MLB scrap heap and bringing them back to life.  The Sox did it three seasons ago with Nathan Eovaldi.  And now Eovaldi is having his best season ever -- albeit in a small sample size.  But the latest reclamation project is 28-year-old RH Nick Pivetta.  Pivetta was toiling in Philly as a middle reliever when Boston picked him up last August and he hasn't looked back, assuming a full time rotation job, while going 2-0 in three starts with a 3.68 ERA.  Pivetta's teams are 7-1 in his last eight starts as a home favorite.  Meanwhile, the Mariners are a wallet-busting 17-40 in the last 57 meetings in Boston.   Take the Red Sox.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met here, in Sacramento, last night.  And the Timberwolves came away with a 134-120 upset win.  Unfortunately for Minnesota, unrested teams off upset wins the previous day, have covered just 37% since Dec. 21, 1990, if they scored more than 130 points in that upset win.  Moreover, Minnesota is a poor 27-46-1 ATS off an upset road win, including 6-21 ATS when priced between +3 and +8 points.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Detroit.  The Mavs were upset by Sacramento, here at home, in their previous game, while Detroit upset the Cavaliers in its most recent game.  That bodes well for the Mavericks, as they're 116-72 ATS off a loss when playing an opponent off a win.  Lay the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the New York Knicks.  Last night, New York covered the point spread in its 10th straight game.  But we'll fade New York tonight, as home teams have covered just 13% of the time off 10+ ATS wins in the regular season, if they also covered the spread by 5+ points in their previous game.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Texas Rangers.  We will forgive Shohei Ohtani for only having one start in 2021 up to this point.  The 26-year-old Japanese superstar has been busy crushing balls, driving in runs, and even stealing the occasional base as a DH this season.  There may not be much argument anymore that Ohtani is more valuable to this club as an everyday hitter.  But given the state of the Angels' rotation and the fact that Ohtani is probably good enough to be a #3 starter on most teams, he will continue to get regular starts assuming he's healthy.  Start number two for the RH comes tonight against a Rangers team which has had some production issues lately (notwithstanding Monday's 6-run outburst).  Veteran RHP Jordan Lyles will get the start for Texas and, although his ERA (4.70) is better than last season, that's not saying much. In 2020, Lyles led the league with 45 earned runs allowed, which resulted in a scary 7.02 ERA.  And his teams are a horrid 24-50 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog in his career starts.  Despite their victory yesterday, the Rangers are still just 1-5 in their last six games vs. RH starters, and 44-75 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) their last 119 on the road.  Take Los Angeles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Tampa Bay Lightning.  Tampa Bay won last night against Carolina, 3-2, but we'll take the 'Canes in this rematch.  Carolina is a fantastic 13-5 this season vs. winning teams, and 25-12 (+11 games on the moneyline) when playing without rest.  It's also 28-17 off a division loss.  Meanwhile, the Lightning are a poor 16-17 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) after winning its previous game in overtime.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the San Francisco Giants.  Logan Webb is a perfect example why you need to ignore spring training statistics.  Webb's numbers this spring were completely off the charts -- one run on seven hits in 17 innings (a 0.53 ERA) with 22 strikeouts and two walks.  Pretty impressive, right?  The only problem is that the 24-year-old Giants RH has a career MLB ERA of over five runs, and a career WHIP of over 1.50 (his minor league numbers weren't much better for the most part).  And so far this season, Webb is 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA in three appearances, including two starts, covering 11 1/3 innings.  He has a tough assignment tonight as well, having to face a Phillies team which will put a proven starter on the mound in veteran RH Zach Wheeler.  Wheeler is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts covering 18 innings.  The Giants took the first game of this three-game series last night, but the Phillies are still 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two here at Citizens Bank Park.  Take Philadelphia.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Seattle Mariners.  Los Angeles lost back-to-back games for the first time last night.  The Dodgers certainly had their chances, but were unable to get the key hits they needed to mount a comeback win.  In the 9th inning, Mookie Betts was hit in his forearm by a pitch, so it would not be a surprise if he is held out of this afternoon game.  But we'll still back the defending champs today, as Seattle is an awful 27-49 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) vs. left-handed starters, and 27-64 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) as underdogs of +150 (or more).   And Julio Urias is one of the best (and one of my favorite) lefties in baseball.  The Dodgers are 3-0 behind Urias this season and, in his career, are 10-3 (+4 games on the moneyline) as road favorites with him on the mound.  Take the Dodgers.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over the New York Knicks.  It's often said that "all good things must come to an end," and that's the case today with the Knicks ATS win streak.  Dating back to April 3, New York has covered its last eight games.  But New York is a horrid 0-12 ATS if it was on a 7-game (or better) ATS win streak, and wasn't getting 6+ points in its current game.  This is also a rematch of a game won by the Knicks, 116-106, in New Orleans this past Wednesday.  But New York is a wallet-breaking 34.6% ATS over the last 31 years as a favorite of more than 2 points against a non-conference foe it upset in the previous meeting earlier in the season.  Finally, New Orleans comes into this game off back to back upset defeats.  However, the Pelicans are 8-1 ATS their last 9 off two straight upset losses.  Take the points with New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  This will be Miami's final game in its 4-game road trip.  And, after losing back to back games against Phoenix and Denver, Miami will no doubt be happy to play the NBA's worst team tonight.  Minnesota has won just 14 of its 56 games this season.  And, since 1990, losing teams are a poor 43% ATS as home dogs in non-division games vs. rested, winning teams off back to back losses.  Additionally, Miami is 25-6 ATS away from home off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Cleveland Indians.  The Reds will hand the ball to Jeff Hoffman tonight, while Cleveland will start Logan Allen.  This will be Allen's first road start this season.  And he's been a much worse pitcher away from home (8.10 ERA) compared to his outings at home (3.60 ERA). Hoffman will be making his second start at home, and his first one was brilliant, as he gave up just 1 run over 5 innings, in a 12-1 Cincy victory vs. the Cardinals. Overall, the Reds have won their last five at home.  And that bodes well, especially given that Cleveland is a poor 18-24 (minus 7.4 games on the moneyline) on the road, when priced from +125 to -125.  Take the Reds in this opening game of this 3-game series.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Atlanta Hawks.  Giannis Antetokounmpo has just been upgraded to 'probable,' so we'll put the trigger on the Bucks.  Both teams do come into this game on win streaks.  The Bucks routed the Magic by 37, and the Timberwolves by 25.  Meanwhile, Atlanta's won its last three in a row, including back to back upset wins over Charlotte and Toronto in their last two.  Generally speaking, I like to go against teams off back to back upset wins, and especially if they're matched up against foes also in good form, off back to back wins, themselves.  Dating back to 1990, our teams off back to back upset wins are a poor 166-228 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Atlanta tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Hawks have lost 11 of the last 12 meetings, straight-up, vs. Milwaukee.  And Atlanta's only win was by a single point, 136-135, in overtime.  Finally, Atlanta's a poor 20-39 ATS as home dogs off a win, if they're matched up against a non-division foe.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Mavs come into tonight's game off back to back home losses, including an 18-point blowout at the hands of the Philly 76ers.  I love Dallas to rebound off those defeats, and get the W tonight at Memphis.  Indeed, the Mavs are 24-6 straight-up, and 23-6-1 ATS their last 30 as road favorites of less than 7 points, including a perfect 4-0 ATS off back to back losses.  Even better:  Dallas is a terrific 77-39-1 ATS off a loss by 14+ points.  And it's 116-71 ATS off a loss, if its opponent was off a straight-up win.  Take the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Detroit.  After dropping Games 1 + 2 in this three-game series, the Astros will look to salvage things with a win in Game 3, tonight.  Lance McCullers, Jr. will get the start for the Astros, and he's been a model of consistency in his two starts this season.  McCullers went five innings in each start, and also gave up just one run, two hits and three walks in both of those starts!  Tonight, McCullers will face a Tigers team, which will hand the ball to Michael Fulmer.  Unfortunately for Detroit, Fulmer is 0-2 in his career vs. Houston, with an ERA north of 6 runs per game, and a WHIP of 1.79.  The Tigers are a dreadful 43-133 (minus 32 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +200 (or higher), and 11-28 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) after allowing 2 or less runs in their previous game.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the San Francisco Giants.  Yesterday, we played on the Giants behind Kevin Gausman, and were rewarded with a 7-6 come-from-behind victory.  Today, we'll switch gears, and take the road team, Cincinnati.  The Reds will hand the ball to RHP Tyler Mahle, who has been terrific this season.  Mahle has made two starts, and threw four shutout innings last Friday at Arizona, and gave up just two earned runs over five innings vs. the Cardinals, back on April 3.  Today, Mahle will match up against the Giants' Johnny Cueto, who has a career 4.50 ERA vs. the Reds.  Cincy is 11-6 behind Mahle, when installed as a favorite.  Take the Reds.

At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs.  The Brewers' Corbin Burnes has been as effective as any pitcher in baseball through his first two starts.  He's faced the Twins and Cardinals, and has given up just 1 run over 12 1-3 innings, while allowing just two baserunners (!!!), and striking out 20 batters.  Today, Burnes will take on Jake Arrieta and the Cubs.  Chicago's a poor 26-38 on the division road, and 140-284 (minus 42 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +150 (or higher), while Milwaukee is a dominant 255-134 (+25 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite of -150 (or more).  Take the Brewers this afternoon.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors. It has just been announced that Trae Young will not play for Atlanta, so that's enough for us to pull the trigger on the Raptors. Take Toronto tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  We played on Houston last Monday vs. these Suns, and got the cash when the Rockets lost by just three points, 133-130, as a 14-point home underdog.  And we also played on the Suns in their last game, which was an easy win for us vs. the Wizards (134-106).  Tonight, we'll once again take Houston as a double-digit underdog, as it comes into this game off back to back blowout losses, at the Clippers, and at the Warriors.  But Houston is a solid 91-59 ATS on the road as an underdog off back to back ATS losses, including 39-17 ATS when playing with revenge.  And Phoenix is a horrid 9-29 ATS as a favorite of 9+ points, if it was off a win, in which it covered by 9+ points.  And the Suns are also 0-7 ATS their last seven vs. Houston, if the Suns were off a double-digit win.  Take the Rockets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Detroit.  Zack Greinke will get the ball tonight, as he looks to stop the bleeding for Houston, after it dropped its last two games on Friday + Saturday to the Oakland A's.  The good news for Houston is that Greinke is as good as any pitcher in baseball when installed as a favorite, as his teams have gone 196-112 in his career, including 36-8 (+19 games on the moneyline) when priced as a favorite of -200 (or more).  Meanwhile, Detroit is 42-133 (minus 34 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +200 (or more).  Finally, Houston is 31-6 its last 37 when playing with a day off.  Take the Astros.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Kansas City Royals.  For years, the Angels had Mike Trout's bat in the line-up and not a whole lot more.  Sure, future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols put in some very good seasons alongside Trout, but the offense was missing that spark plug to go with the best player in the game.  But those days may be over and Trout may finally have some major help in the top half of the order in the form of Japanese star Shohei Ohtani.  In his fourth season in the Majors and with his injuries apparently behind him, the 26-year-old Ohtani is having a Trout-like campaign so far in 2021, showing both power at the plate and speed on the basepaths.  Tonight, it will be veteran RH Alex Cobb getting his second start for L.A. as the Halos try to come back from a big 15-1 loss on Saturday.  The Angels are 4-2 in the last six meetings and will face the Royals' Brady Singer, who was hit hard by the Rangers in his 2021 debut (3 1/3 IP, 6 R, 5H, 3 BB).  KC is a poor 13-25 when priced from -125 to +125. and 67-106 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) vs. RHP.  Take L.A.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Washington Nationals.  The fluid state of the Cards' rotation gives opportunity to talented pitchers who want a chance to show their stuff as a starter.  Enter 28-year-old RH John Gant.  Gant was a star out of the bullpen in 2019, going 11-1 with a 3.66 ERA despite not starting a single game (he also threw in three saves).  Then in a short 2020 campaign, Gant showed that the previous year was no fluke as he posted a 2.40 ERA in 17 games, although his W-L record took a hit.  Those numbers, combined with elbow injuries to Mikolas and Hudson, have enabled Gant to get a shot at starting.  And in his first effort he didn't disappoint, throwing four scoreless innings in a Cards win over Miami last Tuesday.  Normally a second start against a team like the Nats for someone like Gant might be concerning, but Washington seems to be in total disarray right now with a 1-5 record after a late start to its season due to COVID.  The Nats are also 17-40 in their last 57 trips to St. Louis.  Take the Cards.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  Milwaukee's banged-up right now, as many key players (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton) missed its last game -- a 127-119 loss to Charlotte.  The good news tonight is that Milwaukee should still have its way with the Magic, regardless of which Bucks players suit up for this game.  Orlando's lost four straight, and 17 of 21.  And it's an awful 16-33 ATS its last 49 vs. .595 (or better) foes.  Milwaukee, meanwhile, is 34-17 ATS vs. sub-.650 foes, if Milwaukee lost its previous game.  Finally, over the last 31 years, road favorites with a win percentage greater than .600, have covered 65% off 3 SU/ATS losses, if matched up against a non-division foe.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the New York Rangers.  These two teams met on Friday, and the Rangers blew out the Isles, 4-1, in Uniondale.  But I love the Isles to avenge that home loss, back at home this afternoon.  The Islanders are 13-3 this season vs. losing teams, and also a perfect 6-0 at home after giving up 4+ goals in their previous game.  The Rangers, meanwhile, are an awful 10-23 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) off a win by more than 2 goals, and 13-28 off a road win.  Take the Isles to bounce back on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Roughly 10 games into the MLB season, there have been some surprising performances.  But none have been more surprising than that of the Cincinnati Reds.  After an off-season that saw their best player -- pitcher Trevor Bauer -- sign a free agent contract with the Dodgers, most people figured that 2021 would be a rebuilding year at best.  And it still could be.  But right now the Reds are sitting alone in first place in the NL Central with a 6-2 record.  Tonight will be the rubber game in this three-game set with the D-Backs.  And RH Jose DeLeon will get his second start for the Reds after a solid outing first time out in a Reds win over the Pirates last Monday.  RH Luke Weaver also gets his second Arizona start of 2021.  Once a promising prospect with the Cards, Weaver saw things completely unravel last season with the D-Backs as he went 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA in 12 starts.  Despite the loss last night, Cincy is 4-2 in the last six meetings here in Arizona.  Take the Reds.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Charlotte.  These two teams are surprisingly having strong seasons, as they sit in the 4th (Charlotte) and 5th (Atlanta) spots in the Eastern conference.  So, this game is critical for playoff positioning.  We'll take the Hawks, as they fall into a 145-66 ATS revenge system of mine, after losing, 113-105, to the Hornets in the last meeting.  Additionally, the Hawks are 11-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a road loss.  And, since 1990, they've cashed 67% as road favorites vs. winning teams, if Atlanta was playing with revenge from an upset loss.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Washington Wizards.  Yesterday, the Wizards upset Golden State, 110-107, as a 4.5-point road underdog.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Washington in the Valley of the Sun tonight, as Phoenix is playing with revenge from a 128-107 upset loss to Washington earlier this season.  The Suns are 33-18 ATS this season -- an NBA best -- and they're doing their best work at home, where they've covered the spread by 3.37 points per game.  The Suns are 15-5 ATS their last 20 at home, and they also fall into a 58-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .673 (or better) teams playing with revenge from losses by more than 20 points.  Finally, since 1997, Phoenix has covered 63% at home off a loss vs. foes off upset road wins.  Take Phoenix to blow out Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.