Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes + the points over Florida State.  The Seminoles come into this rivalry game off a SU/ATS win last week against Georgia Tech, while Miami outlasted Virginia in overtime, 14-12, but failed to cover the 3-point spread.  We'll take the underdog Hurricanes, as the underdog has gone 27-13-1 ATS, including 22-6 ATS if getting 9 or less points.  And Florida State is a dreadful 34-62 ATS vs. conference foes not off a SU/ATS win.  Take Miami + the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Clemson.  The Fighting Irish have been installed as a home dog vs. the undefeated (8-0) Tigers.  We'll go against Clemson, as undefeated teams -- at Game 8 forward -- have covered just 41.7% the past 43 years away from home in the regular season vs. foes that weren't undefeated, provided our unbeaten team wasn't laying 5.5 or more points.  This system was a perfect 4-0 ATS last year, and is already 1-0 ATS this season coming into tonight.  Finally, Notre Dame is a perfect 6-0-1 ATS as a home dog since 1985 vs. undefeated foes with a 4-0 (or better) record!  Take the Fighting Irish.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes + the points over Louisville.  We played on the Cardinals last week, and got the $$$ when they upset the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 48-21.  Unfortunately, Louisville is a wallet-busting 2-13 ATS off an upset win, if it wasn't getting 3+ points in the current game.  Take James Madison.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Alabama.  The Tigers come into this home game off back to back double-digit wins.  They went into Gainesville on October 15, and downed Florida, 45-35.  Then two weeks ago, they blew out Ole Miss, 45-20.  They had last week off to prepare for this big game.  And rested home dogs of +7 or more points, off back-to-back wins have gone 47-21 ATS, including 38-12 ATS vs. foes off wins by 7+ points.  Moreover, NCAA home dogs off back to back SU/ATS wins, in which they scored 90 points combined over those two games, have covered 65% the past 43 seasons.  Take LSU.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars + the points over Boise State.  The Cougars have lost 4 straight games, while Boise has won its last four.  But we'll still take the ice cold Cougars on Saturday, as single-digit underdogs have covered 69% off 3 SU/ATS losses, if they were playing an opponent off 3 SU/ATS wins.  And the Cougars are 8-3 ATS their last 11 meetings vs. Boise.  Take BYU + the points.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Orlando.  The Magic pulled off a huge upset over the defending champion, Golden State, as a 9.5-point underdog.  They're now a home dog vs. Sacramento.  I look for a major letdown tonight, by Orlando, off that big win.  And the Magic fall into negative 13-36 and 156-241 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins.  Additionally, the Kings are 38-25 ATS on the road off a road loss.  Lay the points with the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin Cajuns + the points over Troy.  The Trojans went into Mobile last week, and upset South Alabama, 10-6.  But that upset win has triggered one of my very best college football systems which goes against certain teams on the road off upset wins.  Troy's been installed as a road favorite for this Sun Belt contest.  Unfortunately road teams off a SU/ATS win have covered just 23.1% at Louisiana Lafayette if the Cajuns were off an ATS loss (and 0-6 ATS their last 6 in this situation as a favorite or PK).  Take Louisiana + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Liberty.   The Flames come into this game off a 41-14 upset win over BYU, as a 7-point home dog.  Unfortunately, Arkansas has been strong at home vs. foes off upset wins, as it's gone 18-9 ATS.  And double-digit road dogs have cashed just 37% since 1980 off an upset win, if they covered the spread by 31+ points in their previous game, and their opponent was off back to back wins.  Lay the points with the Razorbacks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Tennessee.  It's often said that defense wins championships.  Of course, a lot of times people say things that sound good, but aren't actually true.  However, in football, it's absolutely true.  Defense does win championships.  And Georgia brings the better defense into this game.  It's giving up just 10.5 ppg, while Tennessee is allowing 21.0 ppg.  It's true that the Vols have the higher-scoring offense, as they're averaging 49.3 ppg, while Georgia is scoring 41.7 ppg.  We'll take Georgia in this match-up, as the team with the better defense has covered the spread 60% of the time in games between unbeaten teams with a 6-0 (or better) record.  And in these match-ups of unbeatens, teams with the lower-scoring offense have covered 63%.  And if a team has both the better defense, and the lower-scoring offense, they've covered 71%. Take Georgia minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our American Athletic Conf. Underdog of the Year is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Central Florida.  After losing a heartbreaker at home, 33-32, vs. Houston (the Cougars scored 2 TDs in the final two minutes to stun Memphis), the Tigers fell flat on the road the next two weeks.  They lost, 47-45, at East Carolina, and then fell by 10 points to Tulane, 38-28. But they're back home for this game, and have been installed as a home underdog vs. Central Florida.  Memphis is 17-9 ATS at home when not favored by more than 1 point, if it's off a loss, and its foe is off a SU/ATS win.  And UCF is a horrid 3-15 ATS as a road favorite, priced from -3 to -9.5 points, vs. conference foes.  Finally, Memphis falls into a 72-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home dogs against foes off a win.  Grab the points with the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Syracuse.  Pat Narduzzi's men come into this home game off back to back road losses against North Carolina and Louisville.  But Pitt has been terrific at home off back to back losses, as it's 12-1 straight-up, and 11-2 ATS (with one of its two ATS losses by a mere half-point).  And the Panthers are 17-3 SU its last 20 meetings vs Syracuse, including 9-0-2 ATS when priced from +4 to -9 points.  Take the Panthers.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets + the points over Virginia Tech.  The Hokies have lost 5 straight games to fall to 2-6 on the season.  And one of those two wins was against FCS Wofford, where it was favored by 39 points.  Going back further, we find that the Hokies have gone 12-21 ATS their last 33, and 19-37 ATS their last 57 vs revenge-minded foes.  With Georgia Tech, indeed, playing with revenge from a 26-17 loss last season, we'll take the points with Georgia Tech.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Northwestern/Ohio State game Under the total.  The Wildcats have gone UNDER the total 39-17-1 at home in FBS games, including 14-1 UNDER their last 15 after going Over in their previous game.  Take the Under.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane + the points over Tulane.  Tulane is 7-1 (.875) on the season.  But Tulsa has been stellar vs. .777 (or better) foes when not laying more than 3 points, as it's 10-0 ATS.  And the Golden Hurricane are 14-4-1 ATS when dressed up as an underdog.  Meanwhile, Tulane is a poor 11-21 ATS on the road off back to back wins.  Grab the points with Tulsa.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Charlotte.  This match-up has an historic footnote.  Last week, the Hilltoppers were upset by North Texas, 40-13, as a 10-point favorite, while Charlotte upset Rice, 56-23, as a 15.5-point underdog.  So, Western Kentucky failed to cover by 37 points, while Charlotte covered by 48.5 (for a combined differential of 85.5 points).  And that 85.5-point relative point spread differential for the two teams' previous game is the 7th-highest since 1980!  Unfortunately, teams that covered the spread by 39+ points in their previous game are a miserable 0-16 ATS when priced from +10 to +23.5 points.  Lay the points with Western Kentucky.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Under in the Wisconsin/Maryland game.  The Badgers opened the season with back-to-back unders, but have proceeded to play six straight overs in a row.  And this 6-0 'over' streak has led to an inflated total for this game.  Maryland also comes into this game off back to back games where it tallied 30+ points.  And the Terrapins have now gone Over the total 9 straight following back to back games where they scored 30+ points.  Take Wisconsin + Maryland Under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over North Carolina.  The Cavaliers lost last season to North Carolina, 59-39, in Chapel Hill.  We'll take the Cavaliers here, at home, as they’re 37-17 ATS when playing with revenge at home, if the point spread was 8 or less points.  Even better, Virginia lost in overtime to Miami last week, here at home.  And home underdogs off a home overtime game where they didn't win SU/ATS have gone 37-19 ATS.  Finally, North Carolina blew out Pitt last week, 48-34.  But the Tar Heels are a dismal 4-16 ATS off a conference win, including 0-8 ATS when laying more than 6 points, and 1-11 ATS on the road. Grab the points with Virginia.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Oregon State.  The Beavers and Huskies are both 6-2 on the season, and 3-2 in Pac-12 play, and need to win to stay alive in the race for the conference title.  Oregon State has not had any success on the road late in the season, as it's 0-21 straight-up, at Game 9 forward when playing on the road, including 0-6 ATS when not getting more than 8 points.  That doesn't bode well for the Beavers tonight.  Nor does the fact that it's 1-9 SU/4-6 ATS the last 10 meetings vs. Washington.  Finally, Washington is 18-8 ATS at home when favored by 13 or less points, including 7-0 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread by 10+ points in their previous game.  Lay the points with the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Chicago.  The Bulls come into Boston off back to back SU/ATS wins, including a 106-88 blowout of Charlotte, as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday.  The Celts play this game with revenge from an 18-point loss in Chicago, on October 24.  We had a big play on the Bulls in that game, but will side with Boston, tonight.  The Celtics are a solid 66-35 ATS when playing with revenge from an 8-point (or worse) defeat, if its opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  And it's 21-6 ATS off a loss vs. foes off a point spread cover by 10+ points.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Columbus Blue Jackets.  Last season's Stanley Cup winners are once again most people's favorites to bring home the hardware next June.  The Avalanche managed to keep most of their core from the 2021-2022 Cup winning team and they even added some quality players as well.  At no point in the playoffs did the Avs trail a series and they never lost back-to-back games on their way to their third Championship.  On the goaltending front, the Avs replaced Darcy Kuemper -- now with Washington -- with Alexandar Georgiev, a once-promising young goaltender with the Rangers who got passed on the team’s depth chart by Igor Shesterkin.  Colorado will roll with a tandem of Georgiev and Pavel Francouz for 2022-23.  This will be the first of two games these two teams play in Finland, as part of the NHL's Global Series.  The Blue Jackets are 8-21 in their last 29 games overall and 1-15 away from home after allowing more than 3 goals in back-to-back games.  Meanwhile, the Avalanche are 12-2 in their last 14 after allowing five goals or more in their previous game.  Take Colorado.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the Montreal Canadiens.  The Jets had another unremarkable season in 2021-2022, finishing with a 39-43 record and missing the playoffs.  Some would say it was a long time coming, but Winnipeg finally parted ways with coach Paul Maurice less than half-way through last season's campaign.  They originally signed Dave Lowry to act as their interim skipper but cut him loose and have now settled on 67-year-old Rick Bowness to take over behind the bench on a permanent basis.  Bowness has been around the NHL block, holding jobs with the Jets, Bruins, Senators, Islanders, Coyotes, Canucks, Lightning, and (most recently) the Stars. He reached the Stanley Cup Finals as head coach of Dallas in 2020.  So far, so good, as the Jets have a winning record (5-3-1) with Bowness this season.  They'll face a Montreal team which finished last season in the cellar of the league (22-49-11).  This season, the Habs are 5-5 following a 4-1 loss at Minnesota.  We'll take Winnipeg tonight, as Montreal is 7-23 in its last 30 games following a loss of three or more goals.  Take the Jets.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Portland.  Memphis comes into this game off back to back upset losses to Utah, and are now 4-3 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Blazers are off to a 5-1 start after blowing out Houston, 125-111.  They're a home underdog tonight, and that doesn't bode well, as .833 (or better) teams have cashed 25% since 1990 as a home dog or PK, if matched up against an opponent off a SU loss.  Take Memphis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Cleveland.  The Cavs went into Boston and upset the Celtics last week.  And, after defeating New York on Sunday, the Cavs have now won and covered five straight.  We'll take Boston tonight, as it is 75-47-2 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset home loss, if its opponent was off a SU win.  Take the Celtics.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs minus 1.5 goals over the Philadelphia Flyers.  If their recently-completed road series is any indication, then the Toronto Maple Leafs are not going to want to travel West again any time soon.  After winning the first game of the series against the Jets in Winnipeg, 4-1, the Leafs proceeded to drop four straight in Vegas, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Anaheim.  They return home now with two days off since the loss to the Ducks.  The surprising Flyers will come in for the first time this season (and the first time since last April 19).  Through its first nine games of the season, Philly is 5-2-2 with victories against the Lightning and Panthers among others.  When it comes to their success against the Eastern Conference, almost all of the Flyers' damage has come against the teams in their own division.  In their last 26 meetings against teams from the Atlantic, the Flyers are just 4-22.  Philadelphia is 2-5 in the last seven meetings with the Maple Leafs in Toronto and the favorite is 35-16 in the last 51 meetings of these two teams.  Finally, Carter Hart was in goal last night for Philly in its 1-0 overtime loss to New York.  Hart has yet to lose in regulation this season (5-0-2).  But back-up Felix Sandstrom -- who should be in goal tonight -- has lost both games in regulation. Take the Leafs minus 1.5 goals.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards + the points over Philadelphia.  These two teams met two days ago in Washington, and the Sixers won, 118-111.  We'll take Washington in this rematch, as the revenge-minded team in this series is 18-10 ATS since 2013.  And the Wizards are 81-52 ATS when playing with revenge from a home defeat.  Take the Wizards + the points.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Seattle Kraken.  As the NHL's newest expansion team, the Kraken begin just their second season in the league.  The biggest question for 2022-2023 for this club is will it "unleash" some significant offense, something it was not able to do on a regular basis last season.  After a disappointing inaugural season, the Kraken were productive in the off-season and not surprisingly, most of the activity centered around offense. They filled holes at forward with the additions of Burakovsky and Bjorkstrand.  But the truth is they still have a long way to go to match the productivity of most of their rivals, including the Flames.  There's also trouble on the other end as well as #1 goaltender Philipp Grubauer has landed on injured reserve with a bad back and there is no timetable for his return.  That leave's Seattle's net-minding duties to 33-year-old Martin Jones who had a 12-22 record and 3.42 GAA with Philadelphia last season.  The Kraken have never beaten Calgary (0-4) and aren't likely to do so tonight, either.  Take the Flames.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder are on a 3-game win streak, and also have been the best team against the spread this season, as they're 5-0-1 ATS.  But when one looks at those games, one readily notices that not only has OKC been an underdog in each -- it's been a BIG underdog.  The Thunder's six point spreads this season have been +11, +9, +10, +5.5, +6.5, and +10.5.  Tonight, they're not a big underdog, but rather a favorite.  We saw a similar situation this past weekend in the NFL, when the Atlanta Falcons were favored by 4 points vs. Carolina, after starting the year 6-1 ATS -- all as an underdog.  And, of course, Atlanta didn't cover the spread when it switched roles, and became a favorite.  The Magic are a solid 14-4 ATS as an underdog away from home vs. foes off an upset win.  Grab the points with Orlando.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats + the points over Buffalo.  This game will go a long way toward determining the MAC Conference's East division crown.  Buffalo is on top with a 4-0 record, while Ohio sits at 3-1 entering this pivotal contest.  The Bulls currently own a 5-game win streak, while Ohio is also playing well, with its win streak at three games.  We'll grab the points with the home underdog Bobcats, as the home team is 19-4 straight-up in this series, and 15-7 ATS, including 7-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Even better:  the Bobcats are 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of +1.5 (or more) points if they won their previous game.  Take Ohio U.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets over Chicago.  The Nets sustained their fifth straight ATS loss last night in a 7-point win vs. Indiana (as an 8.5-point favorite).  But on this long ATS losing streak, we'll step in and take Brooklyn tonight, at home.  Indeed, the Nets are a sensational 35-13-2 ATS when they were on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, including 11-1-1 ATS when priced from -1.5 to -7.5 points.  And the Bulls are a poor 11-24 ATS vs. foes on a 4-game (or worse) point spread losing streak.  Take Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Utah Jazz.  There are many surprises in this early NBA season, with the Jazz and Spurs (both at 5-2) perhaps leading the list.  Both Utah and San Antonio were expected to tank this season to compete for a shot at Victor Wembanyama in next year's draft lottery.  But each has discarded that proposition, and has stormed out of the gate.  Tonight, the Jazz will try to make it two-in-a-row at home vs. the Grizzlies, as they also beat Memphis, 124-123, here, on Saturday.  However, it's tough to pull off back to back upset wins in the regular season vs. an opponent.  And Memphis is 47-26-1 ATS when playing with revenge vs. a winning foe.  Take the Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee.  The Pistons blew out the defending champion, Golden State Warriors, 128-114, yesterday.  They're installed as a double-digit dog tonight vs. Milwaukee.  And double-digit road dogs, with a losing record, are 94-62 ATS off a SU win vs. .667 (or better) division foes.  Take Detroit + the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Indiana.  With apologies to the Lakers and Clippers, the Nets are easily the most disappointing team in the league.  They're 1-5 SU/ATS, and have failed to cover the spread by 10.33 ppg.  Only the Clippers (who are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS) have a worse point spread differential at minus 11.91.  But at least the Clippers have the fallback excuse of player injuries.  Tonight, the Nets will try to get back on track against the Pacers.  And should the Nets not already not have sufficient motivation, it won't hurt that this Pacers team already smashed the Nets two nights ago, 125-116, as an 11-point underdog.  We'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Nets, and take note of the fact that they had won each of the seven previous meetings before that defeat.  Even better:  the Nets are 10-1-1 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from a home loss suffered against the same opponent in Brooklyn's previous game.  Finally, the Pacers are a poor 9-23-1 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe, if Indiana covered the spread in the previous meeting.  Lay the points with Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  The Raptors will look to bounce back tonight from a 22-point loss to the 76ers.  We'll lay the points, as the Hawks are 49-91 ATS vs. rested foes off a 20-point (or worse) defeat.  And Toronto is 17-5 ATS off a loss by 12+ points, if Toronto owned a .500 (or better) WL percentage.  Take the Raptors.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Charlotte.  On Saturday, the Hornets upset the defending NBA champion Warriors,  120-113.  But off that huge upset win, as a 10-point underdog, we'll look for a major letdown tonight, as home underdogs have cashed just 39.7% since 1990 off an upset win over the defending champs.  Lay the points with Sacramento.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets won their previous game, 117-101, over the Utah Jazz.  But off that blowout win, we'll fade Denver on the road, as it's an awful 5-24 ATS as a road favorite off a win by 9+ points.  Take Los Angeles.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over Buffalo.  Green Bay lost as a road favorite at Washington to fall to 3-4 on the season.  And they've now been installed as a huge underdog at Buffalo.  This is the first time in Rodgers' career that he's been under center when the Packers were getting 9+ points.  But he's 5-2 ATS when getting more than 6 points.  And Green Bay is a super 7-1 ATS with Rodgers as an underdog off an upset loss.  And it's 5-0 ATS with Rodgers off 3 ATS losses, if Green Bay wasn't favored by more than 1 point.  Those stats bode well for Green Bay.  As does the fact that .375 (or better) NFL teams have cashed 66.1% as an underdog of more than 6 points off an upset road loss.  Take the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Anaheim Ducks.  To say Toronto's first west coast road swing of the season is not going as planned would be a huge understatement.  The team many think can go all the way this season started out with a victory in Winnipeg, but has since lost three straight in Vegas, San Jose and Los Angeles.  They end the trip tonight in Anaheim.  The Ducks have had a roller coaster ride in the last 12 months.  First, GM Pat Verbeek took a flame-thrower to the club and sold off many of its assets.  Then this past summer he apparently decided that he wanted to go shopping to replace what he had lost.  Whether that strategy works remains to be seen, but the early returns are not good.  The Ducks currently sit at 1-6-1, with their lone victory coming against the Kraken in overtime.  The Leafs are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings with the Ducks and the favorite is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.  Anaheim is also 0-6 in its last six games vs. teams from the Atlantic Division.  Take Toronto.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  It's only Game 7, but this is the 3rd meeting already this season between these two clubs.  And that is the earliest that two teams have played their 3rd meeting, from as far back as my database goes (1990) -- but possibly for the history of the NBA.  The first two meetings were played in Minnesota, and the two teams split those, with the Spurs winning #1, and the T-Wolves prevailing in meeting #2.  San Antonio is now 4-2 on the season, and is one of the surprising teams thus far -- especially since the Spurs had the lowest projected season win total, and longest Championship odds for any of the 30 teams.  We'll grab the points with Gregg Popovich's crew, as San Antonio is 37-21 ATS at home when playing with revenge.  Take the Spurs.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Golden State/Detroit game.  After scoring 123+ points in four of their first five games, the Warriors' offense took a holiday yesterday, as they lost 120-113 (in overtime), and the game went under the total of 233.5.  I'll look for another relatively-low scoring game today, as the Over/Under line is a tad inflated.  The Under also falls into 166-112 and 60-35 Totals systems of mine.  Take the Under.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over Cleveland.  The Cavaliers pulled off an upset win, at Boston, in overtime, on Friday.  But off that upset win, we'll fade the Cavaliers at home today.  Cleveland has struggled mightily in the role of a favorite, as it's 54-86 ATS its last 140.  And it also falls into a negative 48-85 ATS system of mine based on its upset win.  Grab the points with the Knicks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last Monday, Chicago upset New England as an 8.5-point road underdog.  Unfortunately for the Bears, road dogs of +8 (or more) points, off an upset win as an 8-point (or greater) underdog, have covered the spread in just 33% of their games since 1980.  Dallas is 12-7 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when favored by 4+ points.  Meanwhile, Chicago is a wallet-breaking 14-23 ATS off an upset win, including 2-9 ATS when getting 4+ points.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Detroit/Miami game.  After starting the season with four extremely high scoring games, the Lions have played back to back low scoring games.  But those two games were on the road against Dallas and New England -- teams that play good defense.  Today, Detroit is back at home, and it's gone OVER in 20 of 28 home games following a SU loss in a game which went under the total.  Even better:  Detroit is scoring 38.67 ppg at home, by itself.  And its home games have averaged 76.33 ppg!  Combine that with the fact that Miami's road games have averaged 59.67 ppg, and we have all the ammunition we need to take the OVER in this game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets.  New York had a bittersweet victory last week in Denver.  Yes, the Jets prevailed in a tough, defensive game, 16-9.  But they lost RB Breece Hall for the season when he sustained a torn ACL.  To make up for Hall's absence, the Jets traded for Jaguars' RB James Robinson.  Meanwhile, the Patriots were shellacked, 33-14, Monday night, in an upset loss at the hands of the Chicago Bears.  But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with Bill Belichick's men today.  For technical support, consider that New England is an awesome 21-0-1 ATS on the road in the regular season off a loss, if matched up against a foe off a win.  That bodes well for the Patriots today.  As does the fact that the Jets are a horrid 41-66-4 ATS at home vs. .500 (or worse) opponents.  Finally, the Pats have won 12 straight in this AFC East division series (8-4 ATS).  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  This is a great match-up tonight in Milwaukee, as the 4-0 Bucks will take on the 4-1 Hawks.  We'll go against the undefeated Bucks, as teams with a 4-0 SU record have covered Game 5s just 40.2% since 1990, including 2-14 ATS their last 16.  Milwaukee's also 22-35 ATS vs. Atlanta, including 4-14 ATS when the Bucks were off back to back wins.  And the Hawks also fall into a 313-230 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winning teams installed as an underdog.  Grab the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  The Sixers have dominated this series with 11 straight wins.  And they're 12-3 ATS the last 15 meetings.  Philadelphia is starting to right itself after an 0-3 SU/ATS start to the season.  Last night, even without Joel Embiid, Philly blew out Toronto, 112-90.  I look for the 76ers to continue to play well tonight.  And with Embiid now upgraded to 'probable,' that's all i need to pull the trigger on the 76ers.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Michigan State.  Last season, Michigan lost just once in the regular season, and it was to Mel Tucker's Spartans, 37-33.  Kenneth Walker rushed for 197 yards and 5 touchdowns in the game last season.  But Walker is now wearing a Seahawks uniform, so MSU's ground attack has sputtered this season (3.6 ypr).  Michigan's 10-4 ATS its last 14 home games vs. Big 10 Conference rivals, when laying 6+ points.  And, in his NCAA career, coach Jim Harbaugh's teams have gone 13-5 ATS when favored by -6 (or more) points, and playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Philadelphia Flyers.  Are the Flyers really as good as their start to the season suggests?  The answer to that remains to be seen, but you have to admire the 5-2 start that this team has had.  Any success the Flyers have this season will be considered a victory for them as there are few expectations for this club.  That's not the case with the Hurricanes.  Carolina has been knocking on the door of a Conference championship for several years now, but hasn't been able to break through.  However many people think that this is the team that will finally do it.  Frederik Andersen is considered the #1 goalie for the 'Canes, but it's been back-up Antti Raanta who's been performing better.  With Andersen having played last night, it will be Raanta's turn tonight.  Despite their early success this season, the Flyers are 13-40 in their last 53 games vs. the Eastern Conference, and 17-36 their last 53 off a win.  The favorite is also 5-1 in the last six meetings of these two.  Take the 'Canes.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Wake Forest.  The Cards come into this game off back to back double digit wins (and also back to back double-digit covers).  And they also play with revenge from a 3-point loss to the Demon Deacons last season.  We'll grab the points with the home dog, as it falls into a 90-41 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back covers by 10+ points.  Even better:  Wake Forest is a wallet-busting 22-38-2 ATS as a favorite vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-11 ATS vs. foes that won their previous game by 7+ points.  Take Louisville + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Florida Hurricanes minus the points over Virginia.  The Cavaliers upset Georgia Tech, 16-9, in their previous game, and are now 3-4 on the season. Miami is also 3-4 after getting blown out, 45-21, by Duke.  Today, the 'Canes will turn to Jake Garcia as their starting quarterback after erstwhile starter, Tyler Van Dyke, was injured in last week's loss.  Miami was actually favored by 10.5 points in that Duke game.  It was a nightmarish performance all the way around, including a ghastly 8 turnovers (5 by Garcia).  But I love Miami to bounce back today, as NCAA favorites have covered 62% over the last 43 years off a loss by 20+ points as a double-digit favorite, when they were playing, in their current game, an opponent off a SU win. And Virginia's covered just 33% as a home dog since 1980 vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the UNDER in the Penn State/Ohio State game.  Ohio State comes into this game scoring 49.5 ppg, and outscoring their foes by 34.71 ppg.  But I expect a relatively-low scoring game this afternoon, as Penn State has gone UNDER 89% since 2013 against opponents that score more than 47.5 ppg, and UNDER 78% against opponents with a scoring margin greater than 32 ppg.  And 71% of Nittany Lion home games have gone UNDER the total if the O/U line was greater than 55 points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have had a creampuff schedule thus far.  They've played six of their seven games at home.  And their only road game was against Michigan State, which is having a down year.  (The Buckeyes were favored by 27 on the road in that game.)  So, this game will be the sternest test for Ohio State yet this season.  It's on the road.  And it's the first time this season that Ohio State wasn't favored by 17+ points.  Penn State enters off a 45-17 blowout of Minnesota, and falls into several of my best 'momentum' systems, with records of 202-115, 323-216 and 119-52 ATS since 1980.  Additionally, the Nitts are 44-23 ATS at home off a conference win, including 15-4 ATS if they won their previous game by 25+ points.  Grab the points with the Nittany Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the Vancouver Canucks.  The Penguins' glory days may be fading fast what with players like Crosby, Malkin and Letang all reaching their upper 30s soon.  So, the question is whether or not this team has one more big playoff run in them before those players (and others) are gone.  Whatever happens, this is still a club with plenty of fire-power, as evidenced by the fact that in each of the Pens' victories they scored six goals.  Of course, with a suspect defense and net-minding, the Pens can also have six goals scored against them almost as readily.  They've lost two in a row coming into tonight but those were to the Flames and Oilers.  Tonight, they'll step down in class with a match against Vancouver .  The Canucks are a team in transition, and are 1-5-2 this season.  Vancouver is 1-10 in its last 11 vs. Eastern teams and the favorite is 5-0 in the last five meetings of these two.  Take the Pens.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks are the league's lone undefeated team, at 3-0.  But we will go against Milwaukee tonight, as it's a horrible 18-42-2 ATS at home in the regular season off 3 or more wins when matched up against a winning team.  Grab the points with New York.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Cleveland.  We played against Boston in its last game, and easily got the $$$ when Chicago routed it, 120-102.  But off that blowout loss, we'll lay the points with the Celtics tonight, as Boston has cashed 60% ATS in the regular season since 1990 as a favorite off an 18-point (or worse) upset loss.  Lay the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Washington.  Indy was blown out, 124-109, by the Bulls on Wednesday.  But I look for it to rebound tonight, as it's cashed 63% since 2011 off a loss by more than 12 points, when matched up against .400 (or better) foes.  Take Indiana.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Atlanta.  These two teams met here, in Detroit, two nights ago, and the Pistons lost that game by five points.  We'll take Detroit in this rematch, as it's 20-8 ATS at home off a SU home loss, including 9-1 ATS when priced from +5 to +7 points.  And Atlanta is a horrid 6-16-1 ATS on the road off a road win.  Take Detroit + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the San Jose Sharks.  All Toronto hockey fans are wondering the same thing right now:  will this be the season that the Maple Leafs finally break through to make it to their first Stanley Cup Finals since 1967 (they won it that year too).  The Leafs feature the most prolific goal scorer in the East, if not the entire league.  C Auston Matthews is the current favorite to win the Rocket Richard trophy after his 60-goal season in 2021-2022.  The Leafs aren't exactly tearing it up so far as they've had some injuries early on.  Perhaps a trip to San Jose to play the Sharks is what the doctor ordered.  Even at 90% health, Toronto should be able to handle a Sharks team which is very much in transition and likely to finish near the bottom of the standings this season.  They've already lost seven games this season -- most in the NHL.  San Jose averaged 2.57 goals per game last season, third fewest behind Arizona (2.51) and Philly (2.56), and that's not likely to get better.  The favorite is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings of these two.  Take Toronto.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Miami.  We played on the Heat last night (which was a rare 5* play), and were rewarded with a 21-point blowout victory.  But we will fade Miami off that win, as it will be playing without rest against a rested Warriors club.  And Golden State will be looking to make amends for its 134-105 blowout loss at the hands of the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday.  The good news for Steph Curry & Co. is that .500 (or worse) NBA favorites have cashed 82% over the last 33 seasons if they lost their previous game on the road by more than 17 points, and their opponent was off a road win by more than 17 points.  Additionally, the Warriors have cashed 64.7% as a favorite off a loss by 29+ points.  Take Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Bucs will surely be happy to be home on this Thursday, as they were blown out on the road last week by Carolina.  And they also suffered an upset road loss two weeks ago, at Pittsburgh.  The good news for Tampa tonight is that home teams have covered 65.2% over the last 43 seasons off back to back upset road defeats.  Additionally, Tom Brady's teams have gone 25-1 ATS in the regular season off a loss, if they weren't favored by 7+ points, and their opponent was off a straight-up win.  Take the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Clippers had one of their worst games in the last couple of years when they lost outright, 108-94, to the Thunder, as a 5.5-point road favorite.  They'll get a second bite at the apple tonight, in OKC, as the two teams will meet again in this rematch.  We'll take the Clippers to redeem themselves, as Los Angeles is 36-20-1 ATS on the road off a straight-up loss, including 16-8 ATS when playing with revenge, and 10-2 ATS off a road game where it failed to cover the spread by 19.5+ points.  Even better, the Clippers are 12-2 ATS when playing an opponent in back to back games, if they lost the first meeting, and were not favored by more than 7 in the next meeting.  Meanwhile, OKC is 4-13 ATS at home when they also defeated their opponent in OKC's previous game.  And it's 5-15 ATS off an upset home win, when priced from -2 to +8.5.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat over the Portland Trail Blazers.  The Heat are off to a 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS start after earning the #1 seed in the Eastern conference last year.  Meanwhile, Portland is a super 4-0 following its 135-110 upset win over Denver (its 4th straight upset to start the season).  We'll take Miami tonight, as it's 62-30 ATS off an upset loss, when matched up against an opponent off a SU win.  And it's also 27-8 ATS on the road when on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers are 18-44 ATS off a win over a division rival by more than 18 points, including 0-9 ATS if Portland wasn't favored by 4+ points in that previous game.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Houston.  We played on Houston two nights ago, and got the $$$ when it defeated the Jazz, 114-108.  We'll take Utah in this rematch, as the Jazz fall into a "right-back revenge" system of mine which is 107-62 ATS.  Moreover, Houston is 26-44-2 ATS off a point spread win.  Lay the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs.  The T-Wolves were blitzed by San Antonio on Monday, so they'll look for revenge tonight.  Minnesota was favored by 8.5 points in that game.  And that was San Antonio's 3rd straight upset win (it also upset Philly as a 13-point dog, and Indy as a 1.5 point dog).  Unfortunately for the Spurs, NBA underdogs off back to back upset wins as 7-point dogs, have covered just 6 of 28 when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Under in the New York/Charlotte game.  The Hornets come into tonight's game having played 3 'overs' in a row.  We'll look for a lower-scoring game on Wednesday, as the Under falls into a 57% and 58% Totals systems of mine.  Also, Charlotte is 4-0 Under its last 4, and 20-9-2 Under its last 31 after playing 3 straight Overs.  Take the Under.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Rangers over the Colorado Avalanche.  In what could be a Stanley Cup Finals preview, the Avs visit Madison Square Garden for the first and only time this season.  At 3-2-1, the Avs are off to a slower start than many people may have expected, but it's really not all that surprising.  Team Captain Gabriel Landeskog underwent knee surgery earlier this month and will be out until sometime in January.  It's a tough blow to a team trying to defend its championship, but it's better that it happened now as opposed to the Spring.  Meanwhile the Rangers -- also 3-2-1 -- are healthy and ready to take it to the next level in the East.  They lost in the Conference Finals to the Lightning last season but with Tampa finally looking like it's going to be in rebuilding mode, the torch may indeed be passed to the team from Manhattan.  The addition in the off-season of veteran C Vincent Trocheck may be the last piece of the puzzle for this squad.  The home team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings of these two clubs.  Take the Rangers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Portland.  The Nuggets pulled off an upset win yesterday in Los Angeles, and now return home to take on the Denver Nuggets.  We'll lay the points with Denver, as NBA road favorites off back to back wins have covered 59% since 1990 vs. unrested division rivals off upset road wins.  Lay the points with the Nuggets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets over Utah.  The Jazz have surprisingly opened the season with three straight upset wins.  But I look for that streak to come to a halt tonight, down in Houston.  Indeed, since 1990, winning teams off 3 upset wins have covered just 26.3% as underdogs vs. foes off a loss.  And the Jazz are also a wallet-breaking 5-19-1 ATS their last 25 on the road when not laying 3 or more points.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over Boston.  We played against Chicago on Saturday, and were rewarded with a 128-96 blowout win by the Cleveland Cavs.  Tonight, we'll switch gears and play on Chicago, as it's cashed 73.9% in the regular season as underdogs off a loss by 32+ points.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Grizzlies were blown out, 137-96, in Dallas, on Saturday.  But off that debacle, we'll lay the points with Memphis here, at home, tonight.  The Grizzlies are a solid 22-8 ATS as a favorite off a loss by more than 20 points.  Take Memphis.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over the Miami Heat.  These two teams met on Saturday here, in Miami.  And the Heat edged the Raptors, 112-109, for their first win of the season.  Unfortunately for Miami, losing teams have covered just 32.1% since 1990 in the 2nd of back to back home meetings, if they won the first of the two meetings, straight-up.  Take Toronto + the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Indiana.  The Sixers are off to a poor 0-3 start.  But I love Philly to bounce back strong tonight, on Monday, as winless, double-digit favorites have covered 71% over the past 33 seasons vs. foes not off back-to-back losses.  Lay the points with the Sixers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the Clippers.  We played against Phoenix on Friday, and got the $$$ when the Trail Blazers upset them, 113-111, in overtime.  Tonight, we'll back the Suns, as they're 52-19 ATS off an upset road loss.  Take Phoenix.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Sacramento Kings.  We played against Golden State on Friday, and took Denver as our NBA Game of the Month.  And the Nuggets pulled off the upset win.  But we'll switch gears and take Golden State tonight, as it's 35-12 ATS at home vs. division rivals, if Golden State was off a straight-up loss.  Take the Warriors.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the New York Jets.  Russell Wilson won't be on the field today vs. the Jets, as he's out with a hamstring injury.  QB Brett Rypien will instead be under center for the Broncos.  But Wilson was the 25th-ranked quarterback through the first six weeks, so his absence won't be devastating to the Broncos.  We'll take Denver, as it's a stellar 52-19-3 ATS at home, priced from +4.5 to -2 points, including 10-0 ATS if it was off a division loss in its previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Portland.  The Blazers have opened the season with back-to-back upset wins over the Kings and Suns, while the Lakers dropped their first two games to the Warriors and Clippers.  We'll take Los Angeles as teams off back to back SU/ATS losses have covered 63% since 1990 vs. foes off back to back upset wins to start the season.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over New York.  The Jaguars come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, but have been installed as a home favorite vs. New York.  The Giants are headed in the opposite direction, as they're 5-1 SU/ATS after their 2nd straight upset win -- a 24-20 victory over Baltimore.   But off those two upsets, we'll fade New York at Jacksonville on Sunday.  Indeed, winning teams off back-to-back upset wins have covered just 39.2% on the road vs. losing teams over the last 40+ years.  And the Giants are a poor 4-8 ATS off back to back upset wins vs. a foe off a SU loss.  Finally, over the last 40+ years, NFL teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have covered 69.5% vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins if our play-on team (here, Jacksonville), was not getting more than 4 points.  Lay the points with the Jaguars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Dallas.  Dak Prescott will make his return this afternoon for the Cowboys, but we'll still go against them this afternoon.  Detroit had last week off following a shutout loss, 29-0, at the hands of New England.  The Lions are now 1-4, but rested underdogs of +6 (or more) points, with a win percentage < .333, have covered 64.5% over the past 43 years.  And Detroit has gone 16-0-1 ATS after losing by more than 26 points in their previous game, if they were installed as an underdog of 6+ points in their current game.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens have not covered the spread in any of their three previous games, and are 1-8 ATS when favored by more than 3 points, dating back to last season.  This afternoon, they'll welcome division rival, Cleveland, to M&T Bank Stadium.  We'll grab the points with the Browns, as AFC North division teams have covered 64.8% if they were getting 6+ points against a division foe not off a SU/ATS win.  Additionally, the road team has gone 27-18-1 ATS in this rivalry, including 5-0 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Washington.  The Bears come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Washington State and Colorado.  But both of those games were on the road (where Cal is 0-3 on the season).  At home, it's been a different story, as California is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS.  The Bears play this game with revenge from a 31-24 loss in Seattle last season.  And Washington is an awful 0-7 ATS its last seven (and 13-31-1 ATS its last 45) as road favorites vs. revenge-minded conference foes, if the Huskies were off a win, and owned a winning record.  Grab the points with California.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Chicago Bulls.  The Cavaliers have a big advantage tonight, in terms of rest.  Cleveland has had the last 2 days off, while Chicago had to play last night in Washington, against the Wizards.  Over the last 33 seasons, rested NBA teams have covered 70.2% in their 2nd game of the season, if their opponent was unrested, and our rested team was not favored by more than 3 points.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Louisville/Pittsburgh game.  The Cardinals have scored 33+ points in each of their last three games.  But the Panthers have not allowed more than 31 points in regulation in any of their six games this season.  I look for a relatively-low scoring game here, as Louisville has gone under in 9 of 10 games after scoring 31+ points in three (or more) games in a row.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Alabama/Mississippi State game.  The Crimson Tide lost last week to the Tennessee Volunteers, 52-49, as a 9-point favorite.  Off that horrible game, we'll look for a much better effort here by Nick Saban's troops -- and especially on the defensive end.  Indeed, over the last nine years, Alabama is 6-0 SU off a loss, and all six games have gone UNDER the total, as the Tide held those six foes to 13, 0, 6, 7, 16 and 9 points (8.5 ppg).  Additionally, Alabama is 7-0 Under its last 7 following a game that went Over the total.  Meanwhile, Mississippi State also comes into this game off an upset defeat, 27-17, at the hands of Kentucky.  And the Bulldogs have gone UNDER 14 of 15 following a straight-up loss, if they failed to cover the spread by 9+ points in their previous game.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Fresno State.  The Bulldogs upset San Jose State, 17-10, last week as a 7-point home dog, and they covered the spread for the first time all season, after an 0-5 ATS start to the season.  Now, Fresno has been installed as a big road favorite in Albuquerque.  But I look for a reversion to form for Fresno, as road favorites have covered just 33% over the last 42 years off an upset win, if they were on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak prior to that upset victory.  Additionally, the Lobos are 13-2 ATS against foes that won outright as a 7-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over San Antone.  The Spurs pulled off an upset win last night against the Indiana Pacers, while Philly lost its home opener to Milwaukee in its previous game.  The Sixers will get a 2nd crack at the apple here, at home, on Saturday evening.  We'll lay the points with Philly, as double-digit home favorites have covered 75% since 1990 off a loss in their home opener when matched up against a foe off a SU win.  Take the 76ers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over UCLA.  Both of these teams are undefeated (3-0) in Pac-12 conference play, though UCLA owns the better overall record, at 6-0 (compared to Oregon's 5-1).  In the Bruins' last game, they upset Utah, 42-32, as a 3-point home underdog.  I played on UCLA in that game, but will go against Chip Kelly's men on this Saturday, as undefeated Pac-12 Conference teams are 14-27-1 ATS off an upset conference win.  Even worse for the Bruins:  they're 15-36-1 ATS off back to back wins, including 1-7 ATS as an underdog off a double-digit win.  And the Ducks are 26-9-1 ATS vs. conference foes, if the Ducks owned a worse season W/L record, and were not getting 4+ points.  Lay the points with Oregon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our Conference USA Game of the Month is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over North Texas.  The Mean Green come into this game off back to back blowout wins over Florida Atlantic (45-28) and Louisiana Tech (47-27).  They've now been installed as an underdog at UTSA, which doesn't bode well for the Mean Green.  Indeed, underdogs are a horrible 13-45 ATS after back to back games where they scored more than 40 points, including 0-10 ATS their last 10 when playing a revenge-minded foe.  With the Roadrunners seeking revenge from a 22-point loss in Denton last season, we'll lay the points with UTSA.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over James Madison.  The Dukes suffered their first loss of the season last week following a 5-0 SU/ATS start.  We'll go against James Madison on Saturday, as double-digit favorites off a SU/ATS loss have covered just 63 of 169 if that loss was their first of the season after a 5-0 (or better) start.  Take Marshall + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Florida International/Charlotte game.  Last week, we played on the Charlotte 49ers and UAB under the total as our Conference USA game of the Year.  We were rewarded with a 54-point game which went under the total by 11 points.  But here, we'll look for a return to form by Charlotte, as it had gone over the total in each of its five games previous to last week.  Take Charlotte/Florida International Over.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane/Memphis game to go Under the total.  The Tigers come into this game off back to back high-scoring games.  Memphis lost, 47-45, last week, and 33-32 the game before that.  But the Tigers have gone under the total 17-8 off back to back 60-point games.  Meanwhile, Tulane also played a high-scoring game last week, as it routed South Florida, 45-31.  But the Green Wave have gone under 18-7 after a game which went over the total, if the line in the current game was less than 58 points.  Take the Under.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Iowa.  Our strongest football play so far this year was on the Ohio State Buckeyes, Sept. 17, vs. Toledo.  The Bucks were averaging just 33 ppg, and were 0-2 ATS on the season going into that contest.  But Ohio State erupted for 77 points, and that was a harbinger of things to come.  Since that game, Ohio State has scored 52, 49, and 49 points.  And they're 3-0-1 ATS their last four games.  I won't step in front of this freight train, as NCAA teams have covered 63.3% of their home games since 1980 vs. conference foes, if they scored 49+ points in each of their three previous games, and did not fail to cover the spread in any of those three games.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Phoenix.  The Trail Blazers are a solid 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS in their home openers, including a perfect 5-0 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up win.  Moreover, home dogs of +2.5 (or more) points have cashed 67% in their home openers since 1990 if they were not unrested, and their opponent was off a home win.  Grab the points with the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors opened up the season with a blowout win over LeBron James' Lakers, 123-109. And they'll look to make it two-in-a-row tonight against a team many feel will win the title.  The Nuggets are healthy this year, with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. back on the court.  Unfortunately, their presence didn't lead to a good result in Game 1, as Denver was shellacked by the Utah Jazz, 123-102.  But off that embarrassing loss, we'll take Denver to bounce back tonight.  Indeed, the Nuggets are 28-11 ATS in the regular season off a loss by 15+ points, if their opponent was off a win by 7+ points.  Even better:  defending NBA champs -- who generally receive their championship rings in the opening game -- often have letdowns in Game 2, and are a soft 2-11 ATS in their 2nd game of the season if they were playing an opponent not off a SU/ATS win.  Take Denver + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Boston Celtics.  Miami was upset, 116-108, by the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday.  We'll take the Heat to bounce back on Friday, as they're 44-13 ATS vs. conference rivals, if the Heat were off an upset loss, and their opponent was off a win.  Take Miami.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Toronto.  The Nets lost their first home game of the season, 130-108, to the New Orleans Pelicans.  Brooklyn is back at home for Game 2, and NBA home teams that were upset in their home opener typically do much better in their 2nd home game of the season, including 64.2% since 1990 vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  With Toronto in off a 108-105 victory over Cleveland, as a 2-point home favorite, we'll fade Toronto tonight, and lay the points with Brooklyn.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over New Orleans.  The Saints are 2-4 SU/ATS this season, and have been outscored by 2.83 ppg, and have failed to cover the spread by an average of 3.33 ppg.  This will be New Orleans' 3rd road game of the season, and it's 0-2 ATS in the first two, with ATS losses to the Falcons and Panthers.  The Cardinals are also 2-4 straight-up, after being upset last week by the Seattle Seahawks.  And that was Arizona's 2nd straight defeat, as it also fell to the 6-0 Philadelphia Eagles, 20-17, two weeks ago.  But off those two losses, we'll step in and take Kliff Kingsbury's men on Thursday night.  For technical support, consider that the Cardinals are a sensational 36-13 ATS at home off back to back losses, if its opponent had a negative scoring margin.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies.  The two unlikeliest of opponents will meet in the NLCS as Wild Card teams the Phillies and Padres clash in a best-of-seven affair for a trip to the World Series.  It would've been almost impossible to imagine that the Padres would have home field advantage in the Championship Series but yet here we are at Petco Park for Game 1.  The Padres are also fortunate in that things lined up for their veteran RH ace, Yu Darvish to start things off on five days of rest.  Darvish has done little wrong in his two 2022 post-season starts so far, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA with 11 strikeouts and two walks in 12 innings against the Mets and Dodgers.  In two starts vs. the Phils during the regular season, Darvish allowed three runs in 13 innings (a 2.08 ERA) with 14 strikeouts and one walk.  Anything close to that tonight in his pitcher-friendly home park should get the job done.  The Padres are 18-3 in their last 21 games immediately following one or more off-days.  And Darvish's teams are 29-13 when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest.  Take San Diego.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Broncos are offensively-challenged.  They scored just nine points in last week's 12-9 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, and are averaging just 15.0 ppg this season.  In contrast, the Chargers enter tonight's game with a 24.4 ppg offensive average, and have tallied 34 and 30 points the past two weeks.  This vast offensive difference (LA is 9.4 ppg better) will keep a lot of gamblers off Denver, but not me.  Indeed, at Game 6 forward, NFL road teams that average 15 (or less) points per game, and at least 9.4 ppg less than their opponent, have gone 119-78-5 ATS, including 65-35-4 ATS if their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  And if it's a division game, then our 65-35-4 stat zooms to 28-9-1 ATS.  That bodes well for Denver in this game.  As does the fact that AFC West division teams with a losing record have gone 141-83 ATS on the road vs. division rivals, if our road team was not favored by more than 3 points.  Finally, Denver is an awesome 11-0 ATS following games it failed to score 13+ points, if it was an underdog of 4+ points in the current game, and its opponent was off a win.  Take the Broncos.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Eagles had a winning record last season, yet lost both games to Dallas, 51-26 and 41-21.  But Philly now falls into several double-revenge systems of mine that have records of 53-28, 72-51 and 43-23 ATS.  Additionally, dating back to 1989, undefeated teams (like Philly) have cashed 63.7% at home off a point spread loss if they weren’t favored by 9+ points in their current game.  Take the Eagles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.