Sports Picks & Predictions

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Chicago.  After storming out of the gates with a 5-0 record, the Titans have dropped their last two games.  But one was against the undefeated Steelers, so it's hard to find too much fault.  Today, they'll welcome the 5-3 Bears to Nashville.  We'll lay the points, as NFL teams with a .700 (or better) W/L percentage, off back to back losses, have covered 61.6% over the last 41 years.  Take Tennessee.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Denver.  The Falcons were 0-5 when they fired Dan Quinn, and replaced him with Raheem Morris.  Since then, Atlanta has gone 2-1, but easily could be 3-0 if it had only not allowed the Lions to score a touchdown as time expired, in a 23-22 defeat.  In their last game, the Falcons went into Carolina, and upset the Panthers, 25-17.  We played on Atlanta in that game, and will take them again today, as they'll welcome a Broncos team which pulled off a division upset last Sunday.  Since 1980, road underdogs have covered just 63 of 155 non-division games off an upset division win at home.  Take Atlanta.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Arkansas.  Tennessee comes into this game riding a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, following its 48-17 loss to Alabama.  Yet the Volunteers have been installed as a small road favorite vs. the Razorbacks, who have covered all five games this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Razorbacks, and against the cold Volunteers.  But consider that, over the past 41 years, road favorites have covered 70.5% of conference games if they were off back to back losses, and their opponent was off 3+ ATS wins.  Additionally, Tennessee is a terrific 14-0 ATS as a road favorite of 13 or less points off an ATS loss.  Take the Volunteers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Clemson.  The Irish have given up 13 points or less in five of their six football games this season.  And they're allowing a meager 10.3 ppg (against foes that average 23.9).  Yet they've been installed as a home underdog vs. a Clemson team which has failed to cover the spread in five of its seven games this season.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on strong defensive teams as home underdogs.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 6 forward, home dogs (or PK) that allow 13.7 (or less) points have cashed 61.1% of their conference games.  Even better:  the Irish are 19-7 ATS at home when priced from -2 to +7 points, while Clemson is a wallet-busting 4-16 ATS on the road when priced as a favorite of less than 7 points (or PK).  Take Notre Dame + the points to upset Clemson.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Florida State.  The Panthers started 3-0, but have lost their last four games -- both SU and ATS -- largely because of the injury to QB Kenny Pickett in the 3rd quarter of the Boston College game.  Of course, the fact that Pitt played Miami and Notre Dame their previous two games was a big factor, as well.  This afternoon's game vs. Florida State will be a welcome step-down in class for Pat Narduzzi's men.  And I love Pitt to bounce back this afternoon, as NCAA teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have covered 59% over the last 41 years as a road underdog of less than 6 points.  On the other sideline, Florida State is giving up a ghastly 35 points per game, and has covered just two of its six games this season.  Even worse for the Seminoles:  they're 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite, including an outright upset loss to Georgia Tech when they were favored by 13 points.  And they've covered just 13 of their last 37 ACC games as a favorite.  Indeed, it's hard to make a case for an NCAA team as a favorite when they give up 35 ppg.  And, at Game 7 forward, conference favorites have covered just 40% of the time since 1980, if they give up at least 35 ppg, and play an opponent with a better record (both inside the conference, and overall), and a better defense (which rates at least 11 points better).  Take Pitt + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Vanderbilt.  After opening its season with an impressive 44-34 upset win at LSU, the Bulldogs have lost their last four games -- both SU and ATS.  Last week's game was particularly uninspired, as they managed just 200 yards of offense, in a shutout loss at Alabama.  But Mississippi State is back home in Starkville this afternoon.  And their opponent is the 0-4 Commodores rather than the Crimson Tide.  One of the things I love to do is play on double-digit NCAA home favorites in conference games, off back-to-back conference defeats, if they lost their previous game by 20+ points.  These teams have bounced back to cover the spread 62% of the time.  And for all of Miss State's recent problems, the Commodores have actually been worse.  Vandy is 0-4 SU this season, and has lost its last three games ATS by an average of 16.3 ppg.  And it's also 0-9 ATS its last nine when getting less than 21 points!  Take Mississippi State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Illinois.  The Gophers come into this game off back to back losses to start their 2020 season.  Certainly, PJ Fleck did not envision that his team would be 0-2 at that point, after going 11-2 last year, and being ranked #21 to start the season.  A 49-24 season-opening loss to Michigan wasn't wholly unexpected.  But last week's 45-44 overtime defeat at Maryland was a head-scratcher, as Minnesota was favored by 17.5 points.  But 0-2 road favorites, that had a winning record the previous season, have cashed 68.9% over the last 41 years.  Even better:  teams playing away from home have gone 20-4 ATS if they were upset as an 11-point (or bigger) favorite their previous game, and were off back to back losses overall.  Take the Gophers to bounce back at Champaign this afternoon.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  The Spartans pulled off a gigantic upset last Saturday when they went into Ann Arbor and upset their rival, Michigan, 27-24, as a 21.5-point road underdog.  Can MSU make it two-in-a-row?  It's not likely, as NCAA teams playing back-to-back games on the road have covered just 26.6% of the time if they won their previous game as an underdog of greater than 20 points.  That bodes well for the Hawkeyes on Saturday.  As does the fact that Iowa's a solid 39-28 ATS off back to back losses.  And it's an awesome 24-6-1 ATS off a loss when priced as a favorite of 7 points or less, including a perfect 11-0-1 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up win.  Take Iowa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Liberty.  The Flames are 6-0, and ranked among the Top 25, yet have been installed as a heavy underdog vs. the 4-2 Hokies.  At first blush, the point spread may seem like an overlay, given that Liberty's last three wins have been by 33, 17 and 21 points -- including a victory over ACC member Syracuse.  But Virginia Tech has won its two home games against two winning teams -- NC State and Boston College -- by 21 and 26 points.  And it's also 18-7-1 ATS at home vs. .800 (or better) opponents, at Game 6 forward (including 7-0 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins).  Meanwhile, underdogs (like Liberty) off 3 SU wins as a favorite are 17-43 ATS away from home.  But the clincher is that, at Game 7 forward, .857 (or better) road underdogs have cashed just 46 of 122 off a SU/ATS win by 13+ points.  Take Virginia Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos + the points over BYU.  The Cougars come into this game with a gaudy 7-0 record, and have been installed as a road favorite at Boise State, which RARELY loses here at home on the blue turf.  How rare?  Boise's lost just nine of 137 home games over the past 22 seasons, and is 38-3 straight-up at home when priced as an underdog, or a favorite of 10 points or less.  And it's cashed 22 of its last 28 at home when not favored by more than 10 points!  That bodes very well for the underdog Broncos on Friday night.  More good news:  BYU's cashed just eight of 20 games as a road favorite, while Boise's cashed 75% as a revenge-minded underdog.  Meanwhile, unbeaten teams (like BYU) with a 5-0 (or better) record) have cashed just 30.4% over the last 41 years as a road favorite of 7 (or less) points vs. non-conference foes.  Take Boise State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack + the points over Miami (Fla.).  Both of these ACC Conference teams come into this Friday night game off a bye week.  Miami has won two straight following its 42-17 loss at #1-ranked Clemson, and is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS.  Meanwhile, NC State is 4-2 SU/ATS following its 48-21 loss at rival, North Carolina, two weeks ago.  The good news for the Wolfpack is that it's 2-0 SU/ATS this season at home.  And it's also 31-14-2 ATS as a home underdog of more than 5 points.  Even better:  NC State is 29-14 ATS off a loss, if it's playing with revenge from a loss to its opponent in the previous meeting.  And the Wolfpack fall into an 84-23 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Finally, Miami is a dreadful 17-34 ATS off a home conference win, including 0-8 ATS its last eight, and 0-12 ATS when priced from -4 to -20 points vs. .250 (or better) foes.  Take North Carolina State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over Wyoming.  Last week, we had a big play on the Cowboys as a home underdog vs. Hawaii, and were rewarded with a 31-7 upset win.  In that game, we played against the road favorite Rainbow Warriors, who were off a double-digit upset conference win.  Now, here, we'll play against the road favorite Cowboys, who are also off a double-digit upset conference win.  And NCAA road favorites of less than 13 points (or PK) have covered just 48 of 141 conference games off a double-digit upset conference win.  Even better:  Wyoming has been dreadful on the road when favored by 3+ points, as it's covered just 12 of 37.  Take the Rams as a home underdog + the points tonight.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Kent State.  Last year, the Golden Flashes went into Ypsilanti and stunned Eastern Michigan, 34-26, as a 4-point road underdog.  The Eagles will get their chance to avenge that defeat in this season opener.  And, if history is any guide, they will.  Indeed, teams playing with revenge from an upset home loss the previous season have cashed 68% of their season openers, when not favored by 3+ points.  Even better:  the Golden Flashes are a horrible 2-10 ATS their last 12 (and 16-32 ATS their last 48) when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Sunday night game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.  It's true that the Cowboys' offense has sputtered without QB Dak Prescott.  Dallas' last two games have gone 'under' the total, as they've produced 48 and 28 points.  And Dallas' offensive problems is the reason for this relatively-low over/under number.  But, by my math, the oddsmakers' adjustment of the over/under number has been an overreaction.  The Cowboys' defense is still giving up TONS of points, as it's given up 25 or more points in each of its last six games (37.16 avg).  For the season, Dallas has allowed 34.7 ppg (against foes that score 25.6 ppg).  Meanwhile, Philly's defense has also been horrible, as it's surrendered 28 ppg (against foes that average 24.4 ppg).  Notably, each of Philadelphia's seven games this season have totaled 43+ points (51.2 avg), and five of the Eagles' seven games have soared 'over' the total.  Dallas has gone 'over' the total in 11 of 15 after playing an 'under,' while the Eagles have gone 'over' in 24 of 38 off an 'under.'  Take the Cowboys + Eagles to go OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over San Francisco.  The Niners come into Sunday's game off back to back upset wins over the Rams (24-16) and Patriots (33-6).  Can they pull off their 3rd straight upset?  It will be most difficult, as they catch division rival Seattle off an overtime upset defeat to Arizona, 37-34.  That was Seattle's first loss of the season (after five wins), and I love it to bounce back this afternoon.  Since 1980, winning home favorites are an awesome 57-33 ATS vs. foes off back to back upset wins.  Even better:  the Seahawks play this game with revenge from a loss here at home to the Niners in the season's final regular season game.  That handed last year's division title to San Francisco.  But revenge-minded NFL favorites, off an upset loss, are 107-67 ATS.  Take Seattle minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over New Orleans.  We played against the Bears last Monday, and were rewarded with a 24-10 SU/ATS win by the Los Angeles Rams.  But we'll switch gears this afternoon, and play on Chicago as a home underdog.  These two teams actually met here, at Soldier Field, last season, and the Bears were defeated 36-25.  But revenge-minded home underdogs, with a winning record, have cashed 65.6% over the past 41 seasons vs. non-division foes.  Indeed, we saw this situation just a couple of weeks ago when the Titans avenged their home loss to the Buffalo Bills last season with a 42-16 blowout as a 3-point home underdog this season.  The Chicago Bears are 12-4-1 ATS their last 17 as a home underdog, and 20-11 ATS as a home dog with revenge.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers are the last remaining undefeated NFL team (at 6-0), and will attempt to tie the 1978 team (which went 7-0 to start its season) with the best start in franchise history.  The oddsmakers aren't giving the Steelers the respect of an undefeated team, as they've installed them as a sizeable underdog at their rival, Baltimore, this afternoon.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with Pittsburgh.  But consider that underdogs of more than 3 points have covered just 23 of 65 games, if they were on a 4-game (or better) win streak, including 2-15 ATS vs. division rivals.  That doesn't bode well for the Black-and-Gold on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that the Ravens are a powerful 16-4 ATS vs. .500 (or better) teams if the Ravens are priced between -3.5 and -6 points at home.  Last week, Baltimore had its bye week, following its 30-28 victory over Philadelphia.  The Steelers, meanwhile, upset Tennessee on the road for its 4th straight cover.  Unfortunately, in the regular season, unrested road underdogs off 3 SU/ATS wins are a soft 58-96 ATS vs. winning foes, including 14-28 ATS vs. division rivals.  And rested home teams with an .800 (or better) win percentage, are an awesome 12-0 ATS vs. unrested foes in the regular season, when not favored by 6+ points.  Take Baltimore.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Minnesota/Green Bay game.  This rivalry has typically produced low-scoring games, with nine of the last 12 meetings sailing 'UNDER' the total.  I look for another relatively-low scoring game this afternoon, with Minnesota looking to bounce back off its 40-23 upset loss to Atlanta, as a 3.5-point favorite.  And NFL teams that get upset, and give up 35+ points in that upset loss, tend to bounce back and cover the spread, while also going 'under' the total -- and especially when the line is greater than 39 points (204-152 under (57.3%)).  And Mike Zimmer's Vikings have gone 'under' 28-13 after going 'over' in their previous game.  Take the 'under.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Kansas City.  Last week, we played on the Jets as a double-digit home underdog vs. Buffalo, and got the cash in an 18-10 defeat.  That loss moved the Jets' straight-up record to 0-7.  Today, they'll take on the 6-1 (and defending Super Bowl champion) Kansas City Chiefs.  Understandably, the Chiefs are massive favorites in this game.  But don't be surprised if the Jets hang tough this afternoon.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs have not done well over the years as large home favorites.  Since 1980, they've covered just 12 of 33 when laying more than two touchdowns.  Moreover, winless teams -- like New York -- are an impressive 36-13 ATS at Game 8 forward when getting more than 8 points.  And underdogs of 19+ points -- though they've gone 0-19 straight-up -- have gone 13-6 ATS.  Take New York + the big number.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets to go OVER the total.  The Chiefs are favored by 20 points, which is the largest point spread yet this season.  And, over the past 20 years, NFL games with large point spreads tend to go over the total.  Indeed, home teams favored by more than 15 points have gone OVER 62.7% of the time.  I look for another high-scoring game here, as the Chiefs have also gone 'over' the total 57% of the time in the Patrick Mahomes era, including 6-0-1 OVER after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Of course, it's true that the Jets come into this game off 3 straight unders.  But consider that, since 1980, NFL teams off 3 straight unders have proceeded to go OVER the total 60.4% of the time when the line was greater than 48 points!  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over the Bengals.  After starting the season 5-0, the Titans finally lost last Sunday -- 27-24 -- at home to the similarly undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers.  Off that loss, I look for the Titans to rebound this afternoon at Cincinnati.  Indeed, NFL teams that start the season with 5 (or more) wins have gone 8-0-1 ATS when priced from -6.5 to -13 points, if they suffered their first loss of the season at home in their previous game.  Additionally, the Titans should also be bolstered by facing a Bengals team which is 1-5-1 this year, and giving up 27.71 ppg.  Since 1980, road teams have gone 251-174 ATS vs. opponents off an ATS win that give up 26.22 ppg.  Take the Titans minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels + the points over Nevada.  Last week, in their season opener, the Rebels mustered just six points at San Diego State.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against UNLV tonight, especially given that Nevada scored 37 in its upset win vs. Wyoming last Saturday.  However, over the last 41 seasons, underdogs that didn't score 7+ points to open their season bounced back to cover the spread 69.2% in their second game, if it was against a conference foe.  That bodes very well for UNLV as a double-digit underdog on Saturday night.  As do the facts that Nevada's an awful 0-6 ATS as a double-digit road favorite vs. losing teams, and 11-23 ATS on the road vs. .300 (or worse) teams.  Grab the points with UNLV.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State.  This game features the two teams who were projected to be the Big 10's two best teams at season's end.  Unfortunately for Penn State, the Indiana Hoosiers took the luster off this game when they upset the Nitts, 36-35, as a 7-point home underdog, last Saturday.  But if there was a silver lining in its upset loss, it's that Penn State significantly outyarded the Hoosiers, 488-211.  But Indiana won the turnover battle and, ultimately, the game.  In contrast, the Buckeyes blew out Nebraska, 52-17, even though their game vs. the Nebraska Cornhuskers was closely played in the stats.  Nebraska was only outgained by 121 yards (491-370), yet one wouldn't know that by the final score.  Not surprisingly, the 'Huskers lost the turnover battle to the Buckeyes.  The Nittany Lions were 11-2 (.846) last season, with one of their two losses to these Buckeyes, 28-17, in Columbus.  Rest assured, Penn State will badly want to avenge that defeat on Saturday night.  And revenge-minded teams have cashed 63% (46-27-4 ATS) at home or on neutral fields over the past 41 years if they were not favored by more than 3 points, and owned a W/L percentage of .846 (or better) the previous season.  Even better:  if our revenger came into the game with a losing record, and its opponent was off a win, then our 46-27 stat zooms to a perfect 9-0-1 ATS.  Take Penn State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on Air Force + the points over Boise State.  The Falcons are 1-1 on the season, after losing 17-6 on the road last week.  But Air Force is back home for this game, and has been installed as a double-digit home underdog.  The Falcons were also a home underdog to start the season, and we played on them in that game vs. Navy.  Air Force rewarded us with a 40-7 blowout win, and that moved the Falcons' record as a home underdog to 8-0-1 ATS their last nine!  I look for another ATS win by Air Force as a home underdog, as it falls into a 72-30 ATS system of mine that plays on certain home underdogs off upset losses.  Take the double digits with the Falcons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The #1-ranked Tigers have scored 42, 73 and 47 points in their last three games.  And they'll now face a 4-2 Boston College squad which has surrendered 30, 40 and 27 points in its last three games, and gives up 25 ppg on the season.  Needless to say, Clemson is going to light up the scoreboard on Saturday.  Indeed, winning teams (like Boston College) have gone 51-94 ATS if they give up at least 20.5 ppg, and are installed as an underdog of 22+ points.  That bodes well for Clemson on Saturday.  As does the fact that NCAA home teams that average 45 ppg on offense have cashed 69.6% over the past 35 seasons vs. foes that are off a SU/ATS win that surrender at least 25 ppg, if our home team wasn't favored by more than 33 points.   Boston College has lost its last six games ATS following an ACC Conference win, while Clemson is 9-1 ATS its last 10 games vs. ACC rivals that won SU/ATS their previous games.  Take Clemson minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Purdue.  The Illini were roasted in their season opener last week at Wisconsin.  The Badgers were favored by 20.5 points, and blew out Illinois by 38, 45-7.  The good news for Illinois is that it's back home in Champaign this Saturday afternoon.  And it will also be playing a team which is much closer to its talent level.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on teams in their home opener off a game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 11 points, if they're playing a conference foe, and the game is competitively-priced with a line of less than 11 points.  Over the last 35 seasons, our home team has covered 65.6% of the time.  We saw this situation a few weeks ago when Troy State was blown out 48-7 by BYU, as a 14-point road underdog.  But then it returned home for its home opener, and blew out its Sun Belt Conference rival, Texas State, 37-7, as a 7-point favorite.  Last week, Purdue upset Iowa, 24-20, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, Illinois is 9-1 ATS vs. conference foes off upset wins, if Illinois failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points in its previous game.  Meanwhile, the Boilermakers have only covered 16% over the last 41 seasons as a road favorite off an upset win.  Take Illinois + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers + the points over Coastal Carolina.  After a 2-game road trip, the Panthers are back home in Atlanta to take on the 5-0 (and 20th-ranked) Chanticleers.  The last time the Panthers were on this field, they blew out East Carolina, 49-29, as a 1.5-point home underdog.  And that game continued a trend which has seen the Panthers go 8-3 ATS at home in competitively-priced games with a point spread of 6 points or less.  Meanwhile, the Chanticleers are a wallet-busting 2-5 ATS as a conference favorite.  And they fall into 18-55 and 7-27 ATS systems of mine that go against certain undefeated teams off ATS wins.  Take Georgia State + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Wake Forest.  Last week, we had a play on Wake Forest as a double-digit home underdog vs. Virginia Tech, and were rewarded with an upset victory.  But now, the tables are turned and Wake Forest is laying double-digits on the road.  Not surprisingly, teams that change point spread roles like this often don't find success.  Indeed, Wake Forest's only ATS loss this season came when it was a road favorite.  It's also covered just 8 of its last 26 as a road favorite, including 0 of its last 6 attempts.  And over the last 38 years, double-digit NCAA road favorites have cashed just 36.1% after winning outright as a double-digit underdog.  Take the Orange + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Kansas State.  The Wildcats have ripped off four straight wins and covers, including a 41-point blowout win over rival Kansas last Saturday.  But they'll be matched up against a West Virginia team looking to bounce back off its upset loss at Texas Tech a week ago.  The Mountaineers were favored by 2.5 in that game at Lubbock, but lost, 34-27.  The good news for WVU is that it's back home in Morgantown, where it's 6-2-1 ATS its last nine off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  Big 12 teams are a horrid 47-75 ATS as underdogs of more than 3 points off back to back point spread victories.  And West Virginia also falls into a 63-23 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset road losses.  Lay the points with the Mountaineers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys over Hawaii.  The Cowboys were favored last week in their season opener, but lost outright, 37-34, as a 2.5-point road favorite at Nevada.  Meanwhile, Hawaii went into Fresno State, and upset the Bulldogs, 34-19, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  Off those two results, we'll step in and take the Cowboys in their home opener on Friday.  Dating back 41 seasons, College Football teams have cashed 77% in their home opener off a season-opening upset loss, if they were playing an opponent off a win, and were not favored by more than 3 points.  That bodes well for Wyoming tonight.  Even better:  over the past 25 seasons, NCAA Football teams have cashed 63% off an upset loss to start the season, if their opponent was off an upset win to start its season. Take Wyoming.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Thursday Night Football game between Carolina and Atlanta.  This match-up pits two losing teams from the NFC South division.  Atlanta checks in with a 1-6 record, while Carolina is two games better, at 3-4.  The Falcons' problem has been on the defensive side of the football, as they've given up at least 23 points in each of their seven games this season.  Overall, their defense gives up 29.57 ppg, and two of their three road games have sailed 'over' the total, including their last road game -- a 40-23 win at Minnesota, in Raheem Morris' first game as Atlanta head coach.  We'll look for another high-scoring game tonight, as losing teams, that give up at least 29.5 ppg, have gone 'over' the total in 33 of 44 road games vs. other losing teams, if the line was at least 47 points (including 20-2 'OVER' if the O/U line was greater than 49 points).  Additionally, the 'Over' falls into 69-41 and 94-65 Totals systems of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Carolina.  This is the second meeting between these two NFC South division rivals.  In the first meeting, Carolina upset Atlanta, 23-16, as a 2.5-point underdog.  We'll take the Falcons in the rematch, as revenge-minded teams that were upset at home in the previous meeting earlier in the season, have gone 76-42 ATS if they also lost their previous game, straight-up.  Even better:  Atlanta is 21-9 ATS as a road underdog vs. foes off back-to-back losses, including 7-0 ATS its last seven division games.  Take the Falcons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  This selection might be a surprise to many, given we had the Dodgers (at 4-1 odds) as our preseason pick to win the World Series.  But faithful followers know I'll always follow the numbers, and it's hard to bypass Tampa as an underdog tonight.  The Dodgers really needed a win in Game 5 behind Clayton Kershaw, and they got it.  Now they go into Game 6 tonight knowing that if they lose, they will still have RH ace Walker Buehler -- who was completely dominant in Game 3 -- available to start a Game 7.  They also likely will not use Julio Urias tonight so they can have their brilliant young southpaw available out of the bullpen, if needed, tomorrow.  So going opposite LH ace Blake Snell of the Rays tonight will be an assortment of pitchers beginning with RH Tony Gonsolin.  If they're to have a chance tonight, the Dodgers will need Gonsolin to step up.  After a regular season in which he posted a 2.31 ERA in nine games (eight starts), Gonsolin has logged just an 0-2 record and 9.39 ERA in three post-season appearances.  After struggling against the Yankees, Snell has settled down and pitched very well in the ALCS, as well as in his only World Series start vs. L.A. in Game 2, a 6-4 Tampa victory.  That Game 2 was six days ago, so Snell and Gonsolin will be pitching with an extra day of rest.  That bodes well for Tampa tonight, as it's 36-19 (+11 games on the moneyline) behind Snell, when the southpaw was working with an extra day or two of rest (but a poor 26-33 otherwise (minus 12 games on the moneyline)).  The Dodgers, meanwhile, have been profitable vs. righties over the last three seasons, but NOT against lefties (91-62, minus 11 games on the moneyline).  In contrast, the Rays have been VERY profitable vs. righties (39-16, +19 games on the moneyline), but not against lefties (12-12, minus 5 games).  The Dodgers are 3-0 in this World Series in games started by Tampa righties, but 0-2 in the games started by Tampa southpaws.  Take the Rays to win Game 6.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.  

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Chicago.  The Bears travel to the west coast off an upset win last Sunday at Carolina, and a 2nd upset win over Tampa Bay in their game before that.  Can the Bears pull an upset three weeks in a row?  It's not likely, as NFL teams playing their 2nd straight road game, are a poor 34.6% ATS off back to back upset wins, if they're playing a non-division foe, including 3-24 SU and 7-19-1 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +7 points.  That doesn't bode well for Chicago tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Bears are a horrid 0-12 ATS their last 12 (and 7-27 ATS their last 34) on the road vs. winning teams who were not off a SU/ATS win in their previous game.  With the Rams in off an upset loss last Sunday to the 49ers, we'll lay the points with Sean McVay's men tonight.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays 'under' the total.  Game 4 was the most exciting contest (by far) in this World Series, and surely ranks as one of the best World Series games over the last 20 years.  After games dominated by pitching and defense on the winning side, the batting orders of these two teams took center stage on Saturday night with multiple lead changes and plenty of long balls.  At least part of that was due to the fact that the Rays threw a bullpen game and the Dodgers didn't have either of their top two starters available (although Urias pitched well enough).  But tonight, we're back to LHP Clayton Kershaw for L.A. and RHP Tyler Glasnow for Tampa, so look for much more of a pitchers' duel.  Kershaw was nothing short of spectacular in Game 1 of this series, allowing one run on two hits in six innings while throwing just 78 pitches before the bullpen took over.  The biggest potential issue for Glasnow tonight is the fact that the Rays offense hasn't been giving the 27-year-old much love in this post-season.  In Glasnow's last three starts (one ALDS, one ALCS, and one in this series) the Rays have plated two, three, and three runs.  Meanwhile Kershaw has a 2.88 ERA this post-season.  I expect both pitchers to be on top of their game.  Take the 'under.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over San Francisco.  The Pats are 2-3 on the season.  Two of the three losses were somewhat expected.  New England was a 4-point underdog at Seattle, and an 11.5-point underdog at Kansas City.  But last week's upset loss, here in Foxborough, as a 7-point favorite vs. Denver was surprising.  After all, the Patriots had won 88 of their previous 100 home games as a favorite of 7+ points.  The good news for New England this afternoon is that it's cashed 90% over the past 17 years off an upset home loss where it was favored by 7+ points.  Even better:  the Pats come into this game off back to back ATS defeats.  But they're 24-6 ATS off two ATS losses when not favored by more than 12 points!  We played on the 49ers last week as a home underdog to the Los Angeles Rams, and were rewarded with an upset win by San Francisco, 24-16.  Unfortunately for the Niners, they're an awful 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS off an upset home win when matched up against an opponent off a loss.  And if all this wasn't enough ammunition to play on Bill Belichick's men, New England also falls into 123-64, 120-55 and 44-22 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset defeats.  Take the Patriots minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars plus the points over Los Angeles.  The Jaguars come into this game off 5 straight losses (and 4 straight ATS losses), so the knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with the Chargers (notwithstanding the fact that L.A. has won just 1 game itself).  However, consider that NFL underdogs (or PK) have cashed 63.1% since 1980 in non-division games when they've lost their last five games, and were also on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, including a perfect 13-0-1 ATS over the last 3 years.  That bodes well for the underdog Jaguars on Sunday.  As does the fact that .300 (or worse) teams have covered just 11 of 38 (including 0 for their last 7) when laying more than 7 points, at Game 4 forward.  Take Jacksonville + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets to go OVER the total.  Buffalo's offense has taken a leap forward this season with 3rd year QB Josh Allen.  Buffalo has scored 27, 31, 35, 30, 16 and 17 points in its six games, and only one of the six has gone 'under' the total.  The only game which went 'under' was -- not coincidentally -- the only game which Buffalo wasn't favored to win.  But when the Bills are favored, they've actually gone 'over' 26 of their last 37 games.  In contrast, when the Bills are an underdog, they've gone 'under' 18-4.  In this game, the Bills are substantially favored, as they're laying double-digits to the Jets.  And Buffalo's 14-0 'over' when laying 4 or more points on the road!  These two teams met earlier this season, and that game went 'over' the total by 5 points.  And the 'over' also falls into a 164-111 Totals system of mine.  We'll look for another 'over' this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Carolina/New Orleans game.  The Saints have played all 5 of their games OVER THE TOTAL this season.  But something will have to give today, as they'll be playing the Panthers, who have played UNDERS in each of their four previous games.  I actually look for a relatively-low scoring game here, as NFL teams have gone UNDER 60% of the time over the past 41 years when the line was greater than 49 points, if they played their previous four games over the total, and were playing an opponent which had played a majority of its games UNDER the total on the season.  Even better:  Sean Payton's Saints have gone UNDER 63% of the time over the past 13 seasons off 3+ overs.  And the UNDER also falls into one of my favorite Totals systems which is 98-59-2 since 1980.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys over the Washington Redskins.  Last week, the Cowboys played one of the worst games by any team in the league this season.  They were favored against Arizona on Monday Night Football, but were blown out, 38-10.  The result is that the opening number for this game (Dallas -3) is history, and the number is closer to PK'em.  I believe this was an over-reaction, and the value squarely lies on the Cowboys.  The Cowboys fall into 88-56, 153-69, 221-133 and 71-40 ATS systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 88-56 ATS angle.  That plays on road teams in division games off exactly 1 upset loss, if they were defeated by double-digits in that upset.  Even better:  Washington is a horrible 32-54-1 ATS at home vs. division rivals, if Washington wasn't getting more than 3 points, including 14-32 ATS vs. foes off a loss.  Take Dallas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cleveland/Cincinnati game.  The Cleveland Browns have played three road games this season, and have scored 6, 7 and 49 in those three games.  Of course, that 49-point game was vs. the Cowboys, who are giving up 36.3 ppg, so that Browns effort must be taken with a grain of salt.  Still, even with that 49-point outburst, the Browns are only averaging 20.66 ppg on the road (compared to 33.66 at home).  Likewise, the Bengals have played much better defense at home this season, as they've given up just 20.5 ppg at home (compared to 29 ppg on the road).  We'll look for a low-scoring game here in Cincinnati on Sunday, as the 'under' falls into 60-25 and 125-74 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Washington game.  The Cowboys' defense has given up 39, 38, 49, 34 and 38 points in their last five games.  But those five opponents all had better quarterbacks than does this Washington club.  Indeed, Washington has scored just 17, 10 and 19 points over its last three games.  And, outside of its first game vs. Philadelphia, where it benefited from three turnovers, it hasn't scored more than 20 points all season.  I fully expect Dallas' defense to play a terrific game on Sunday, especially since it will be "stepping down in class" by playing Washington.  And, for technical support, consider that teams whose games average 64+ points have gone under the total 57% when the O/U line 45 or less points.  Take the UNDER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers will be the 2nd undefeated team that the Titans have welcomed to Nashville over the past 12 days.  Back on October 13, the Titans trounced the then-undefeated Bills, 42-16.  Last week, the Titans also scored 42 points, so we won't step in front of this freight train here, at home.  Indeed, over the last 18 years, teams off back to back 40-point outings have cashed 84% when not favored by 5+ points, if their opponent was off a SU win.  And Tennessee is 20-9 ATS off back to back 30-point games.  Take the Titans.  Finally, the Steelers are an awful 21-44 ATS when they owned a winning record, and were playing a non-division foe on the road, but not getting more than 2 points.  Take Tennessee.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers looked like gangbusters through their first four games.  But they laid an egg last week at Tampa Bay, and lost 38-10.  Now, they'll try to rebound at Houston, which owns just one win on the season.  Last week, the Texans lost a brutal game in overtime at Tennessee, 42-36.  We'll fade Green Bay as, road teams have covered just 33% over the last 41 seasons after being upset on the road by 27+ points.  Take Houston.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Buffalo.  It goes without saying that double-digit home underdogs are bad teams.  Actually, really, really bad teams.  But it's also true that double-digit underdogs have been one of the more reliable point spread plays in modern NFL history.  Dating back to 1980, they've gone 109-89-2 (55% ATS).  Last week, we saw the Eagles (+10.5) almost upset the Baltimore Ravens.  And earlier this month, the Redskins covered as a 14.5-point home underdog -- also against Baltimore.  This will be the 3rd double-digit home dog of 2020, and we'll take the points with the pitiful Jets, who are 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS on the season.  But winless ATS teams, at Game 7 forward, have covered 64% since 1980 when installed as an underdog.  Take New York + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Notre Dame.  Last week, the Panthers dropped their 3rd straight contest (and 2nd straight on the road), 31-19, at Miami.  But they'll be back home at Heinz Field to welcome the Fighting Irish to the Steel City.  This will be Notre Dame's first road game after starting the season with four straight home games.  And that doesn't bode well for Brian Kelly's men, as road favorites off 3+ home games, have covered just 27.9% over the past 26 years, if they were off a win, and playing a conference foe off a loss, if that foe was off back to back road games.  It's true that the Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS their last five games.  But this ATS losing streak has created point spread value.  And Pitt falls into a 112-70 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on a 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Additionally, the Panthers fall into an 84-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  And they're 14-1-1 ATS off back to back losses when matched up against winning teams.  Take Pitt.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Alabama.  Last week, the Crimson Tide won the most-anticipated game of the season, with a 41-24 victory over Georgia.  But after winning that "Battle of Unbeatens," we will look for a letdown, and fade the Tide today.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, at Game 5 forward, after a team won a competitively-priced match-up (with a point spread less than 10) of undefeated teams, such teams have cashed just 35.1% as road favorites vs. .500 (or better foes).  Even worse, if its opponent was off an ATS loss, then our 35.1% stat moves to 15.7% ATS.  With Tennessee off a blowout loss last week, we'll grab the points with the home underdog.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Navy.  The Middies won and covered for the 2nd straight game last weekend when they went into East Carolina to defeat the Pirates, 27-23, as a 3-point road favorite.  The Cougars dropped their game last week, as they fell at home, 43-26, as a 3-point home underdog to BYU (which defeated Navy, 55-3, earlier this season).  Houston plays this game with revenge from a 15-point defeat at home last season to the Midshipmen.  The good news for Dana Holgorsen's men is that they're 20-11-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a home loss, including 5-0 ATS as a favorite of less than 16 points (or PK).  And they're 50-28-1 ATS, overall, when playing with revenge.  Navy also falls into negative 77-126 and 64-113 ATS systems of mine that play against certain teams off conference wins.  Finally, the Midshipmen are an awful 3-27 SU and 8-21-1 ATS as home underdogs of more than 7 points, and 11-27 ATS at home off back to back wins.  Lay the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Virginia Tech.  We played on the Hokies last weekend, and were rewarded with a 40-14 blowout win over Boston College.  The Hokies are now 2-0 ATS at home, but 0-2 ATS away from Blacksburg.  That doesn't bode well for them on Saturday afternoon in Winston-Salem.  After all, the Demon Deacons are 3-0 ATS at home this season (and 0-1 ATS on the road).  Wake Forest has also been piling up the points, as it's scored 42, 66, and 40 in its last three games.  Faithful followers know I love to play on home underdogs that can score, and especially if they're good teams.  And Wake certainly fits the bill.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, home underdogs off back-to-back wins, that average at least 40 points on offense, have covered 65% when getting more than 6 points.  Grab the points with the Demon Deacons.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Iowa State.  The Cowboys went into Lawrence three weeks ago and demolished Kansas, 47-7 to move to 3-0 on the season.  Last week, their scheduled game was scrapped due to Baylor's rash of positive COVID-19 tests, so they've had a lot of time to rest and prepare for this game.  Okie State's defense has been solid, as it's yet to surrender 14 points in a game.  And the Cowboys also fall into 109-45, 275-189 and 133-96 ATS systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 133-96 ATS angle.  What we want to do is play on any rested home team in conference games off a double-digit conference road win.  That bodes well for the Cowboys in Stillwater, on Saturday.  As does the fact that they're 22-6 ATS after scoring 47+ points, if they weren't favored by more than 3 points in their current game.  Take the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Oklahoma.  The Sooners finally covered the point spread in a Big 12 Conference game.  But it took an overtime session to put them over the top, 53-45, as a 3-point favorite vs. Texas.  The Sooners have covered just five of their last 18 conference games, including one of seven on an opponent's home field.  That doesn't bode well for Lincoln Riley's troops on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that TCU has covered 14 of 22 as an underdog here in Fort Worth, including a perfect 5-0 if the Horned Frogs owned a losing record.  The Horned Frogs had last week off following their upset home loss to Kansas State, as an 11-point favorite.  And they're 17-4 ATS at home when playing with rest, including 7-0 ATS off a loss.  Finally, over the past 41 seasons, rested home underdogs have cashed 71% off a straight-up loss as a favorite of 9 (or more) points.  Take TCU + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays 'under' the total.  When looking at who has the upper hand in the starting pitching match-up tonight, we're probably splitting hairs.  The Dodgers' Walker Buehler has a 1.89 ERA in four playoff starts covering 19 innings while the Rays' Charlie Morton has an even more ridiculous 0.57 ERA in his three post-season starts so far (one against the Yankees and two vs. the Astros).  Now put these two together on the same night in a pitchers' park such as Globe Life Field and the runs could truly be scarce.  There have been a lot of interesting stats in this postseason, but perhaps none more mind-boggling than the fact that the Rays are in this World Series despite only batting .213 as a team in 16 playoff games.  But when you look at the number of their games that have gone under the total, those numbers start to make more sense.  In Tampa's last six games following a victory, the under is 5-1 and in its last seven vs. a RH starter, the under is 6-1.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers have gone 'under' in nine of Buehler's last 10 starts, while 15 of Morton's last 19 starts (including the last five in a row) have gone 'under.'  This will be a low-scoring contest.  Take the 'under.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers took Game 1 behind some solid starting pitching from LH ace Clayton Kershaw and a bunch of timely hitting by just about everyone in the lineup.  That's the good news for L.A.  The not-so-good news is that Tampa has its LH ace -- Blake Snell -- ready to go tonight while Los Angeles has...Tony Gonsolin.  Advantage Tampa.  Snell will be making his first-ever World Series start.  But he will be up to the task, as the former Cy Young Award Winner went 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 3.50 K:BB ratio in 11 regular season starts, covering 50 innings.  And while those numbers may not match his 2018 Cy Young campaign, Snell definitely showed that he's back.  In his career, Snell is 8-4 with a 2.07 ERA in 16 inter-league starts.  Take the Rays.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Tampa Bay Rays.  The World Series is set as the Rays and Dodgers prepare to face for their first-ever post-season clash.  This finals will look more like traditional seven-game series than the Championship Series did as it will follow a 2-3-2 format with one-day breaks after Games 2 and 5.  Game 1 will start with RH Tyler Glasnow opposite LH Clayton Kershaw.  After a very strong regular season, Glasnow has struggled a bit in the playoffs.  Over four starts, Glasnow has a winning record at 2-1, but his ERA is a bit ugly at 4.66.  In 13 1/3 innings, he's allowed 11 hits and seven walks, for a WHIP of 1.35.  And Glasnow will have his hands full with a very good Dodgers line-up.  This will be his first-ever start vs. L.A.  However, in three previous relief appearances vs. the Dodgers, Glasnow has allowed six runs in four innings with five hits and four walks -- a 13.50 ERA and 2.25 WHIP.  Meanwhile, Kershaw has started twice against the Rays in his career, and won each start (1.88 career ERA; 0.83 WHIP).  Last season, he struck out eight Rays over 6 1-3 innings, and allowed just seven baserunners and two runs.  The Dodgers are 121-46 (+28 games on the moneyline) as a favorite priced -150 (or higher).  And Tampa is a pedestrian 11-10 this season (minus 5 games on the moneyline) vs. lefty starters.  Take L.A.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cowboys are 2-3 this season, but have yet to cover the point spread in any of their five games.  And, to make matters worse, they'll be without QB Dak Prescott for the rest of the season after he sustained a severe ankle injury in last week's 37-34 win over the NY Giants.  But if there's good news for Mike McCarthy's team, it's that they have a veteran backup QB in Andy Dalton.  And they play in the worst division in football, so they still should make the Playoffs -- even if they end up with a losing record.  Tonight, they'll welcome the 3-2 Arizona Cardinals to AT&T Stadium.  But Arizona's 3-2 record has largely come against the dregs of the league, as two of its three wins were against the 1-4 Washington Football Team and the 0-5 NY Jets.  We'll take Dallas as NFL teams on 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have gone 98-49 ATS against non-division foes, provided our team wasn't favored by 3 or more points.  Even better:  this will be Arizona's 3rd straight road game, while Dallas hasn't had to travel in over 3 weeks, as this will be the Cowboys' 3rd straight home game.  Since 1980, NFL teams playing their 3rd straight on the road have covered just 9 of 30 games vs. foes playing their 3rd straight at home!  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals to go Under the total.  The Cowboys' defense has been a sieve thus far, as it's given up 36 points per game.  They've now played their last four games 'over' the total, which has led to an overwhelming majority of the tickets being written on the 'over,' and this number jumping a couple of points from the opener.  Certainly, as can be seen by the betting data, the knee-jerk reaction is to play a Cowboys game to go 'over' the total.  But consider that NFL teams that give up more than 28 ppg on defense, and have played their previous 4 games 'over' the total, have actually gone UNDER the total 72.5% of the time (29-11).  And teams playing on Monday Night Football have gone 9-0 UNDER if the line was at least 50 points, and none of their three previous games went under the total.  Take the Cowboys and Cardinals UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Kansas City.  Last Tuesday, we played against Josh Allen & Co., and were rewarded with a blowout win by underdog Tennessee, 42-16.  But off that blowout loss -- a game Buffalo failed to cover by 29 points -- we'll take the Bills to bounce back on Monday.  Indeed, NFL teams have gone 98-52-5 ATS in non-division games after failing to cover the point spread by more than 24 points, provided they weren't favored by more than 3 points.  That bodes well for Buffy this evening.  As does the fact that the Bills are 29-15 ATS at home off a straight-up loss, when the Bills owned a winning record.  Finally, defending Super Bowl champs are 0-8 ATS as road favorites of -4 (or more) points vs. winning opponents, if their opponent failed to cover the spread by 7+ points in its previous game.  Take the Bills + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Last week, the Niners were embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins, 43-17, as an 8-point favorite.  It's not often that an NFL team -- much less, a defending Conference champion -- fails to cover the point spread by 34 points.  But that's exactly what San Francisco did last week.  We'll look for San Francisco to bounce back on Sunday night, as .350 (or better) home underdogs have covered 62% since 1980 off an upset loss by more than 10 points.  Take the Niners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  A few days ago, it didn't appear that either of the League Championships would go to seven games.  But here we are with the Braves and Dodgers about to play the ultimate rubber game, while the Astros and Rays did the same last night.  I think it's safe to say that no post-season starter has been as hot as Braves rookie RH Ian Anderson.  Most people had never even heard of the 22-year-old at the start of the season, but now Anderson is on the biggest stage which baseball has, with a chance to get the Braves into the World Series.  Anderson's numbers of late have been mind-boggling.  In three post-season starts, covering 15 2/3 innings, Anderson has yet to allow a run.  He's surrendered just six hits, with 22 strikeouts, while going 2-0.  He did issue five bases on balls against the Dodgers in Game 2 of this series, but it didn't matter as Anderson allowed just one hit over four innings.  If the Dodgers can't do what no other team has yet been able to -- solve Anderson and his fastball/change-up combination -- then they will once again fall short of winning their first title since 1988.  Take the Braves as an underdog.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers 'under' the total.  This series has featured strong pitching, for the most part, but that's not the entire story.  It's also been a showcase for great defense, as we saw again on Saturday in Game 6 when Mookie Betts made a leaping catch at the top of the wall against Marcell Ozuna.  That superb defensive play in the fifth inning preserve the Dodgers lead and helped force this seventh game.  The pitching should be on display again tonight when rookie Ian Anderson take the mound for Atlanta.  The 22-year-old has yet to allow a run in 15 2/3 post-season innings, so the Braves will try to ride those numbers to their first World Series since 1999.  Perhaps the best news for the Dodgers in Game 6 was the performance by veteran reliever Kenley Jansen, who pitched a perfect ninth inning to seal the deal for Los Angeles.  Dodgers relievers have now allowed just two runs in 10 innings in the last two games.  It will be an "all hands on deck" game for the Dodgers, who have yet to announce a starter (but we will take the 'under' regardless of which pitcher takes the mound in the 1st inning for L.A.)  Manager Dave Roberts has expressed that Tony Gonsolin will work several innings.  But he'll be joined by guys like Julio Urias, Brusdar Graterol, and perhaps even Clayton Kershaw.  The Dodgers have gone 'under' 74-55 when they've faced an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or better.  Take the 'under.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Green Bay Packers.  The Bucs lost their last game as a road favorite at Chicago, and will look to bounce back against the undefeated Packers.  We'll take Tom Brady & Co. as, Brady's teams have gone 12-0 ATS as an underdog (or PK) off a loss.  Also, over the last 41 years, winning teams have covered 64% as home underdogs off an upset loss as a road favorite the previous week.  Take Tampa Bay.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Miami.  On the surface, we have two teams going in opposite directions.  The Jets are 0-5 SU and ATS, and have lost each of their games by 9+ points.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins come into this game off an impressive 43-17 upset of San Francisco, and have covered three of their last four games.  However, Miami was an underdog in each of its five games this year, and now it's laying more than a touchdown.  That doesn't bode well for Miami, as it's covered just 36 of 105 at home when not getting more than 3 points!  And when laying more than 5 points, Miami's covered just 2 of its last 24 at home!  Even better:  winless teams, off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, have covered 60% over the last 41 years as road underdogs of more than 8 points.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Baltimore.  The Eagles return home on Sunday after back-to-back road games vs. the 49ers and Steelers.  Philly will welcome the Ravens, who blew out Cincy last week, 27-3.  Baltimore's been installed as a huge road favorite, but the number is inflated, per my models.  One of the things I love to do is play on big home underdogs off back to back road games, and especially if they're playing an opponent off a home game, provided that opponent wasn't off a SU/ATS loss.  Since 1980, our big home dogs (of more than 9 points) have covered 86.2% of the time (25-4 ATS).  That bodes well for Philadelphia on Sunday.  As does the fact that the Ravens have covered just nine of their last 33 road games off a win by more than 18 points.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over the Tennessee Titans.  The Texans kicked off the Romeo Crennel era with an easy 16-point win, 30-14, over Jacksonville.  They'll try to make it two-division-wins-in-a-row on Sunday when they visit Nashville to take on the Titans.  Houston will have a scheduling advantage for this game, as Tennessee was forced to play this past Tuesday, so the Titans will be playing with two days less rest.  Even worse for Tennessee:  it's a nightmarish 8-38 ATS at home when favored by more than three points vs. an opponent off a SU win, including 0-6 ATS if the Titans were off an upset win.  And it's 5-21 ATS off an upset win, when it wasn't getting 4+ points in its current game.  Finally, Tennessee has covered just seven of its last 23 vs. Houston, including 1-7 ATS when the Texans were playing with revenge.  Grab the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers over Chicago.  The Bears upset Tom Brady and the Bucs, 20-19, as a 3.5-point home underdog 10 days ago, and are 4-1 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Panthers are a surprising 3-2 on the heels of a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  And all three wins were of the upset variety.  This will be the first time this season that Carolina wasn't an underdog.  Oftentimes, I will avoid playing on such teams that are unaccustomed to laying points.  But I will make an exception here, given that it's a short number.  Additionally, .666 (or better) NFL teams (like Chicago) have cashed just 39% over the past 41 years as a road underdog (or PK) off an upset win as a 3.5-point (or greater) home underdog.  Finally, the Bears are a horrible 2-12 ATS off an upset win, including 0-7 ATS on the road.  In contrast, the Panthers are 18-4 ATS off an upset win, including a perfect 9-0 ATS their last nine.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over Indianapolis.  The Bengals have won just once, but have been extremely competitive this season, as they've lost just one of their five games by more than five points.  But that was last week's 27-3 defeat at Baltimore, which ranks among the four best teams in the NFL.  This week, the Bengals will take on the Colts who have sprinted out to a 3-2 record.  But two of Indianapolis' three wins were against 1-4 Minnesota (28-11) and 0-5 New York Jets (36-7).  So, Indianapolis' scoring margin of +7.6 should be taken with a grain (or, maybe, boulder) of salt.  I expect the Bengals to once again be competitive, as they fall into several of my very best systems that play on certain teams off blowout losses.  Those angles have records of 113-36, 133-57 and 148-68 ATS.  Even better:  NFL road teams that scored 3 or less points the previous week have gone 80-42-3 ATS vs. .650 (or worse) foes, if our road team wasn't getting 10+ points!  And the Bengals are 24-7 ATS on the road as an underdog vs. .650 (or worse) opponents.  Take the Bengals + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Minnesota.  The Falcons are winless on the season, and will have a new coach (Raheem Morris) following the dismissal of Dan Quinn.  They hope to do what the previously-winless Houston Texans did last week following the firing of Bill O'Brien, and win their first game for their new head coach.  Atlanta will be in Minnesota to take on the equally-disappointing (1-4) Minnesota Vikings.  And, when it comes to betting on bad NFL teams, I would much rather take points than lay points with such clubs.  Indeed, NFL home favorites with a .200 (or worse) win percentage (at Game 4 forward), have covered just 110 of 245 games, including a soft 61-90 ATS vs. non-division foes.  Additionally, Atlanta falls into 158-76 and 110-61 ATS systems of mine that play on certain bad teams.  Take the Falcons + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns to go 'under' the total.  The posted total for this game is the biggest number in the history of the series.  Indeed, until this game, the highest over/under number for this rivalry was 47.5.  Last season, these two teams played extremely low-scoring games (21-7, 20-13) that each went 'under' the total.  But this year -- so far -- the two teams have been involved in high-scoring affairs.  Pittsburgh's last three games have gone 'over' the number (26-21, 28-21, 38-29), while Cleveland's last four have gone 'over' (35-30, 34-20, 49-38, 32-23).  However, since 1980, NFL games with over/under lines less than 56 have gone 'under' the total 60% of the time (86-58-6) if both teams played their two previous games 'over,' and each of those games generated more than 47 points.  Additionally, the Steelers have gone 'under' 8 straight times after playing a game with 50+ points scored, while Cleveland is 13-4 'under' after a game that produced 50+ points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Georgia.  The Bulldogs have not defeated the Crimson Tide in any of the last five meetings.  And this price is shorter than it was when it opened, as Alabama coach Nick Saban announced a few days ago that he contracted the COVID-19 virus, so he likely will not be on the sidelines for the Tide.  It's hard to not take Alabama at the current price, given its 76-43-2 ATS mark when not laying more than 6 points, provided it owned a winning record.  Even better:  last week, the Crimson Tide won 63-48 vs. Ole Miss to move to 3-0 on the season.  And they're averaging 51 ppg this year.  Faithful followers know I love playing on College teams that can score.  And NCAA undefeated teams have gone 186-128 ATS as a home favorite if they score more than 50 ppg.  Take Alabama minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Boston College.  After blowing out the NC State Wolfpack, 45-24, in Blacksburg to open the 2020 season, the Hokies had back-to-back point spread setbacks on the road, including a 56-45 loss at North Carolina last week.  But Justin Fuente's men are at home tonight, so that bodes well for them to rebound with a win and cover.  And they'll no doubt be intent on avenging the last two seasons' losses to the Eagles.  Also in the Hokies' favor:  they're starting to get back many players who missed their earlier games due to the coronavirus.  One such player is QB Hendon Hooker, who will make his first start of the season tonight (after seeing action in the 2nd half last week in Chapel Hill).  The Hokies are 61-33-1 ATS against opponents off a win, if the Hokies had a losing point spread record. And they're also 12-3 ATS off a loss, if they were playing with double revenge.  Take Virginia Tech minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over North Carolina.  Last Saturday, the Seminoles lost their 3rd straight game to a Bowl subdivision team.  But if there was a silver lining, it was that Florida State covered the point spread for the first time this season.  A key personnel change last week was the insertion of redshirt sophomore QB Jordan Travis into the starting lineup.  The Louisville transfer played well, and will be back under center to start this ACC Conference game.  Tonight, they'll welcome the #5-ranked Tar Heels to Tallahassee.  And this is brand new territory for North Carolina as none of its players were alive the last time it was ranked among the Top 5.  It played just one other road game this season, and it was a struggle, as the Heels won by just four points, 26-22, as a 14.5-point road favorite at Boston College.  North Carolina is a money-burning 17-32-1 ATS on the conference road off a SU/ATS win, including 0-5 ATS its last five, while Florida St. is 40-20 ATS off a road defeat.  The Seminoles also fall into 100-35 and 82-22 ATS systems of mine.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  After a bullpen game on Friday that was won by the Dodgers, we're back to the top of the rotations for both of these teams.  And while RH starter Walker Buehler has been very good for L.A., LH Max Fried has been on another level for Atlanta.  After a regular season in which he went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, Fried has continued to be one of the MVPs for the Braves in the post-season.  Even though he stumbled in a start vs. the Marlins, the Braves have still won all three of his 2020 playoff outings coming into this afternoon, including Game 1 of this series opposite Buehler.  In that start, the 26-year-old Atlanta ace did everything except register the victory, allowing just one run on four hits in six innings with nine strikeouts.  The Braves won that one with four runs in the top of the ninth.  Dating back to the 2019 All-Star Break, the Braves are 23-3 in Fried's last 26 starts, including a perfect 4-0 as an underdog!  Fried goes on regular (4 days) rest this afternoon, and he is a stellar 13-4 (.765) in 23 starts in those situations.  Take the Braves as an underdog.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Texas A/M.  The Aggies stunned the Florida Gators in College Station last Saturday when they won outright, 41-38, as a 5.5-point home underdog.  But off that big upset win, we'll fade Jimbo Fisher's men on the SEC road this Saturday.  They'll be in Starkville to take on the Bulldogs, who will play with revenge from a 49-30 defeat last season to the Aggies.  Last week, Mississippi State lost to Kentucky, 24-2, as a 3-point underdog.  Turnovers were once again the culprit, as Miss State lost the ball six times to Kentucky.  And, for the season, Miss State has committed 14 turnovers to its opponents' five.  The number one goal, then, for Mike Leach's troops on Saturday will be to "hold onto the damn ball."  Texas A/M is a poor 37-55-1 ATS on the road off a home win, while revenge-minded home underdogs are a super 102-62-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off an upset home win.  Take Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Central Florida.  To say that the Tigers have "revenge" would be a massive understatement.  Indeed, the Tigers have lost the last 13 meetings to UCF, including regular and post-season meetings in both 2017 and 2018.  After not playing at all last season, they've been champing at the bit to avenge those losses, and will finally get the chance this afternoon.  We will fade the favored Knights, who come into this game off a bad upset loss to Tulsa.  Central Florida was favored by 20.5 points in that game, but fell by eight, 34-26.  Unfortunately for UCF, College Football teams off an upset loss where they were favored by 18+ points, have rebounded to cover just 48 of 132 games when they were favored by 25 points or less.  Like the Knights, the Tigers also come into this game off a loss, 30-27, as a 1.5-point road underdog at SMU.  The good news, though, for Memphis is that it's 38-21 ATS off a loss, if it wasn't an underdog of 3+ points in that defeat.  Take Memphis + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars were big underdogs in each of their first three games, and went 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS.  But here, South Alabama will be a favorite for the first time this season.  Unfortunately, the Jaguars have been horrid as a favorite over the years.  Indeed, South Alabama is 1-12-1 ATS its last 14 when laying 2 or more points (and 3-17-1 ATS when not getting more than 5 points).  That doesn't bode well for South Alabama on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that Sun Belt favorites of 6 or less points are an awful 71-109-2 ATS at home, or on neutral fields.  Finally, the Bobcats fall into 99-34, 160-82 and 397-285 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in conference games that lost SU the previous week.  Take Texas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays 'over' the total.  After Thursday night's bullpen game, the question for tonight is, "who's going to be left to pitch after the starters are done?"  Everyone knows that the days of Bob Gibson are over.  And most starters today would be lucky to get six innings in.  So even if Blake Snell (3.24 ERA; 1.20 WHIP) and Framber Valdez (3.57 ERA; 1.11 WHIP) pitch well tonight, they likely will leave the game with at least three or four more innings to go.  That's when the managerial strategy will be more difficult.  These two teams used a total of 11 relievers on Thursday, so 24 hours later it will be very interesting to see how they handle things when the two starters come out.  One thing's for certain -- the offenses may have a field day tonight in light of the situation.  The over was 9-5 in Snell's 14 starts (regular season plus playoffs) this season, while Houston has gone 'over' the total 60-37 vs. a starting AL pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better.  Take the 'over.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave + the points over SMU.  We played on the Mustangs in their last game, and were rewarded with a 30-27 victory against the Memphis Tigers.  But that was a massive emotional game for SMU, as they were at home, and playing with revenge from six straight defeats to the Tigers.  Here, the shoe is on the other foot, as it's Tulane which is at home, and playing with revenge from five straight losses to SMU.  The Mustangs are a horrid 8-24 ATS their last 32 road conference games after a home conference win, including 0-10 ATS if SMU owned a win percentage of .666 (or better).  And Tulane falls into a 36-4 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded home (or neutral-sited) underdogs off a loss against opponents off a win.  Take Tulane.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Yesterday, we had our 5* Baseball Game of the Year on the Dodgers.  And, for faithful followers, it wasn't much of a surprise, given I tabbed the Dodgers as my preseason pick (at 4-1 odds) to win the World Series.  But just because I picked Los Angeles to win the World Series doesn't mean I will blindly take them every game (although I did take my preseason NHL pick -- the Tampa Bay Lightning -- in all 22 of their Playoff games this past season, and that worked out perfectly).  But my confidence level on the Lightning was off the charts, and I don't have the same level of confidence with this Dodgers club.  Certainly, they're the best team.  But the Braves, Tampa Bay Rays and, yes, even the 35-35 Houston Astros, are good enough to win the World Series.  If you're the Braves, you have no choice but to act like Wednesday's Game 3 never happened.  And for those who saw the first inning, it was likely something which will not be seen again, as LA set an MLB post-season record by scoring 11 runs in the top of the 1st inning to put the game out of reach soon after the National Anthem had concluded.  So, a case of amnesia is really the only way for Atlanta to plow forward.  And tonight it will go with another one of its "young guns" in 22-year-old RHP Bryse Wilson.  In his three seasons in the Majors, Wilson has split his pitching time almost evenly between starting and relieving but he has done by far his best work as a starter.  In seven starts covering 30 2/3 innings, Wilson is 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA (vs. 9.75 in eight relief appearances).  Despite their big win on Wednesday, the Dodgers are still just 1-4 in their last five games vs. NL East teams.  And Kershaw's post-season record is pedestrian-at-best (11-11, 4.23 ERA, 34 appearances), including a 3-5 record, with a 4.61 ERA, in 13 National League Championship Series appearances.  Atlanta has enough offensive talent to win on any day, and surely against an injury-hampered Kershaw.  We'll take the Braves as a massive underdog.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays.  After starting two pitchers with a combined nine post-season starts between them in Games 1 and 2 of this series (McCullers Jr. and Urquidy), the Astros will turn to a veteran pitcher with double that number.  36-year-old Zack Greinke has 18 career post-season starts and, although his playoff numbers don't exactly jump off the page at you, there's nobody Houston would rather have on the hill being down 3-0 in this series.  Greinke is a 200+ game winner with a career ERA of 3.37.  And although his best years may be behind him, the veteran just knows how to win.  The Rays will go with RHP Tyler Glasnow who started the Game 5 victory against the Yankees last Friday.  But with no off days in these series, Glasnow will be going on four days of rest and he is 3-6 with a 5.44 ERA in 17 starts with four days off (vs. 9-4, with a 3.27 ERA, in 21 starts with five days off).  The Astros are also 10-4 in their last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in their two previous games.  Take Houston as an underdog.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns minus the points over Coastal Carolina.  The Chanticleers come into tonight's Sun Belt Conference game off a 52-23 upset win over Arkansas St.  But off that upset win, we will fade Coastal Carolina tonight, as Sun Belt teams are an awful 8-30 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points in conference games, if they're off an upset win, and their opponent is also off a straight-up win.  Even worse, the Chanticleers fall into negative 27-77 and 111-200 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins.  Finally, Coastal Carolina has covered just 30.7% of the time as an underdog of more than 7 points, while the Cajuns are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS their last nine when priced from -6 to -14 points.  Take Lafayette.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves took a 2-0 series lead over the Dodgers on Tuesday behind the other-worldly pitching of their rookie, Ian Anderson.  That's the headline.  But the rest of the story is that L.A. came back from a 7-0 deficit and had the winning run 90 feet away in the bottom of the ninth.  And that ability to finally put some significant runs on the board could set the tone going forward.  The Dodgers will put LHP Julio Urias on the mound tonight and you could argue that the 23-year-old Mexican has been their most effective playoff pitcher so far.  In two appearances (one vs. the Brewers and one vs. the Padres) Urias has yet to allow an earned run in eight innings, surrendering just four hits with 11 strikeouts and one walk.  The Braves' RHP Kyle Wright has also not allowed a run so far in the playoffs, although his one appearance was against the Marlins so this will be a much tougher spot for the 25-year-old.  And in the regular season, Wright was 2-4, with a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.  Even worse, his career ERA is 6.22, with a 1.66 WHIP.  So, his six scoreless innings vs. Miami last week were somewhat of an anomaly when you look at his entire career, or even just his 2020 season.  The Dodgers are 14-5 in their last 19 games following a loss, and 100% perfect (4-0) this season off back-to-back losses.  Meanwhile, the Braves under-performed on offense vs. lefty starters this season, as they averaged just 4.5 runs, and hit just .238  (compared to 5.9 runs per game, and .269 vs. righty starters).  Take L.A.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays.  Game 2 of the ALCS was another close pitching duel for the most part, but once again the Rays were victorious.  The relief pitching of the Rays came through, even though Nick Anderson loaded the bases with Astros in the ninth inning for a little drama.  With their backs against the wall, the 'Stros will turn to 25-year-old Jose Urquidy for Game 3 tonight.  The Mexican RH missed over a month of the regular season with an injury.  But once he was activated on September 5, Urquidy was very effective, posting a 2.73 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over five starts covering just under 30 innings.  If he can keep the 'Stros in this series tonight then they know they have veteran Zack Greinke waiting in the wings for Game 4.  Once again the 'Stros are a slight underdog in this game, but that's okay as they are 8-2 in their last 10 post-season games as a dog.  Houston will be the home team tonight and Tampa is also 1-6 in the last seven meetings as the visitors.  Take the Astros.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Titans had 0 new infections today, so the NFL has given the green light for this rare Tuesday night game.  Tennessee comes into this game with a 3-0 record after not playing last week due to the outbreak of infections.  It will be missing several key players, including WRs Corey Davis and Adam Humphries, so I expect a heavy dose of RB Derrick Henry tonight.  Because of its hampered roster, the undefeated Titans have been installed as a home underdog vs. the similarly-unbeated Bills.  We'll grab the points with Tennessee, as rested home underdogs, with a .636 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 75 percent over the past 25 years.  Even better:  Tennessee is playing with revenge from a loss to the Bills last season.  And revenge-minded home underdogs have cashed 70% over the last 41 seasons vs. non-division foes, if our home dog had a winning record both in the previous and current seasons.  Take Tennessee + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays.  If Game 1 was any indication, this is going to be one heck of a series.  The Rays took a 2-1 victory Sunday night in a game that was dominated by pitching.  After an outstanding performance by LH Framber Valdez, the 'Stros will turn to RH Lance McCullers this afternoon,  With the Rays having used normal #2 starter Tyler Glasnow on Friday against New York, they will turn to veteran RH Charlie Morton today.  After back-to-back All-Star campaigns in 2018 and 2019, Morton struggled through much of this shortened 2020 season, going just 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.4 WHIP in nine starts covering 38 innings.  Morton has post-season experience with the club the Rays are facing today.  Unfortunately, Morton has struggled against his former team, with a 4-6 record, and a 6.28 ERA in 11 starts, covering 57 1/3 innings.  The other problem for Morton is that, although for his career he is 74-55 (.574) with a 3.78 ERA under the lights, he is just 19-34 (.358) with a 4.84 number in daytime starts.  Meanwhile, the Astros are 85-43 (+13 games on the moneyline) in daytime affairs.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Miami.  After covering the point spread in Game 1, the Lakers have failed to cover the spread in each of the four next games.  On Sunday, the Lakers will attempt (for the 2nd time) to win their 17th NBA championship.  In Game 5, Anthony Davis re-aggravated a heel injury, but he swears he will be fine for Game 6.  One of the things I love to do when betting on the NBA is play on .710 (or better) teams off an upset playoff loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite, provided they don't trail in a 7-game series.  Since 1990, these teams have rebounded to cash 61% ATS.  Even better:  the Lakers are a solid 16-7-1 ATS in the Playoffs off a loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points.  Meanwhile, LeBron James' teams are 22-11 ATS in the Playoffs as a favorite following a 2-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  And Miami's 4-9 ATS in the Playoffs when playing on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak.  Lay the points in Game 6 with the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Under in the New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys game.  The New York Giants have scored 9, 9, 13, and 16 points in their four games this season.  And three of the four have gone 'under' the total, with the lone game (NYG/SF) going 'over' the total by a single point.  But because of the propensity of the Cowboys to play high-scoring games (three of Dallas' four games have gone 'over'), the number for this game is the highest on a New York Giants game in almost two years, and the 2nd-highest in over 12 years.  We'll play on this game to go 'under,' as in the past 41 years, teams that have given up more than 31 points in each of their three previous games have gone 'under' the total 62.1% of the time.  And the 'under' also falls into 32-15, 69-43, 86-44, 61-28 and 84-41 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Colts come into Cleveland off three straight wins and covers, on the heels of a staunch defense which has allowed just 29 points combined in those three games.  But those three victories included home games against the 0-4 Jets and 1-3 Vikings.  This will be a much more difficult test for the Colts, given that Cleveland has scored 35, 34 and 49 points in its last three outings.  We'll play against the Colts, as unrested NFL road teams off 3 straight covers are a dreadful 0-13-1 ATS vs. .750 (or better) foes off a SU/ATS win.  And NFL home teams have cashed 78% since 1980 after scoring 80+ points in their two previous games, provided that they are not laying more than four points.  And home teams have also cashed 64.8% since 2001 after scoring more than 48 points in their previous game.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Miami.  We played against the 49ers last Sunday, and cashed the Philadelphia Eagles as our Sunday Night Football Game of the Month.  The Niners were 8-point favorites in that game, but lost, 25-20.  If there was a silver lining for the 49ers, it's that they outgained the Eagles in yardage, 417 to 267.  But three turnovers by 2nd-string QB, Nick Mullens, doomed them.  San Francisco, though, will get its #1 QB, Jimmy Garoppolo, back for this game (he missed last week with an ankle injury).  The Niners are a fantastic 60-23 ATS off an upset loss, if they were favored by 3+ points in that defeat, including 29-5 ATS vs. foes off an ATS defeat.  San Francisco is 8-2-1 ATS its last 11 vs. the Dolphins, including 4-0 ATS when favored by 3+ points.  Take the 49ers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals come into this game off back to back upset losses, after starting the season with wins over the 49ers and Redskins.  They'll look to get back on the winning track vs. the winless NY Jets.  Unfortunately, .500 (or better) teams off back-to-back upset losses, have cashed just 18 of 68 road games when not getting more than 2 points.  Yikes!  The Flyboys are 26-9 ATS at home off a home loss, including 11-1 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +10 points.  Take the New York Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Carolina Panthers.  Atlanta's 0-4 on the season, with losses to Seattle, Dallas, Chicago and Green Bay (all good teams), while Carolina is 2-2 on the season, but has played the much easier schedule, with games vs. Las Vegas (L), Tampa Bay (L), LA Chargers (W) and Arizona (W).  We'll take the Falcons to break into the win column, as winless teams, with an 0-4 (or worse) record, have cashed 65% over the last 29 years when not getting 3+ points against foes off a straight-up win.  Additionally, teams (like Carolina) off back-to-back upset wins have covered just 56 of 140 games when matched up against opponents off back-to-back losses.  Take the Falcons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Kentucky.  The Bulldogs opened their season with an impressive 44-34 upset win (as a 14.5-point underdog) at LSU -- a game in which QB K.J. Costello threw for an SEC-record 623 yards (and five touchdowns).  Understandably, the Bulldogs suffered a letdown last week when they fell at home to Arkansas, as a 16.5-point favorite.  But off that upset defeat, we'll grab the points with Miss State against the Wildcats, who are 0-2 SU/ATS this season.  Kentucky's never been reliable as a home favorite vs. SEC rivals, as they've covered just 13 of 35.  And Mississippi State also falls into a 99-50 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses, if they were favored by 13+ points in that upset defeat.  Finally, SEC Conference teams have gone 122-85 ATS away from home off an upset loss.  Take the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Marshall.  Three weeks ago, we played on Marshall as a home underdog vs. Appalachian State, and were rewarded with a 17-7 upset victory.  The Thundering Herd didn't play either of the last two weekends, but are back in action tonight, at Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers finally got into the win column last Saturday with a three-point win at Middle Tennessee, though they failed to cover the 7-point spread.  For the season, WKU is 0-3 ATS.  But we'll take the points with the Hilltoppers tonight, as home underdogs (or PK) off an ATS loss have covered the spread 83% of the time over the last 41 years vs. undefeated conference foes off an upset win.  Moreover, Marshall is 22-38 ATS as a road favorite, including 0-6 ATS off an upset win.  Take Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over North Carolina State.  Last week, Virginia fell to #1-ranked Clemson, 41-23, while the Wolfpack upset then-No. 24-ranked-Pittsburgh, 30-29, as a 14-point underdog.  They'll now look to avoid a letdown.  But they'll be playing their 3rd straight road game.  And the Cavaliers have not lost at home in their last nine at Charlottesville.  We'll play against the Wolfpack, as NCAA teams off upset wins as a double-digit underdog, have covered just 30.7% since 1980 if they were playing their 3rd straight road game, and their opponent was off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  when playing without rest, NC State has covered just six of its last 37 on the road in competitively-priced games with a point spread less than 8 points, including 0 for its last 9.  Finally, the Cavs fall into 81-21 and 99-34 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off double-digit road losses.  Lay the points with UVa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 9 pm, in Game 5 of the NBA Finals, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  We stayed away from Game 4, and it went right down to the wire, with Tyler Herro draining a 3-pointer at the buzzer to cover the 7.5-point spread for Miami.  We'll step in and take the points in this "do-or-die" game for Miami, as it falls into a 59-33 ATS NBA system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any .576 (or better) team in the Playoffs if they were off a loss, and an underdog of +7 (or more) points.  Since 1990, these teams have gone 77-49-2, 61.1% ATS, including 10-4 ATS in the NBA Finals.  Even better:  Erik Spoelstra's men are 32-11-1 ATS off a loss, including 5-0 ATS when getting 6 or more points.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Atlanta Braves.  It's not surprising that the Braves are up 2-0 on the Marlins in this series.  They are heavily favored to advance to the NL Championship.  This is why they feel confident in putting Kyle Wright on the mound today to start Game 3.  Wright is a third-year pitcher with a career record of 2-7 and an ERA of 6.22 through 19 appearances (12 starts).  Wright did slightly better in 2002, going 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA in eight starts but he got knocked around pretty good in two consecutive starts against the Marlins.  In those two starts, Wright allowed eight runs on nine hits in seven innings and the Braves were out-scored by a combined 16-2.  Miami will give 22-year-old rookie RHP Sixto Sanchez his second shot at playoff action as he gets the ball this afternoon.  Sanchez went 3-2 with a 3.46 ERA in seven starts in 2020 and he held the Cubs scoreless over five innings in Game 2 of the Wild Card series.  Atlanta is 0-5 in Wright's last five starts vs. winning teams.  Take Miami.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  In this much-anticipated match-up of NL West power houses, the Dodgers drew first blood on Tuesday, taking a 5-1 victory at Globe Life Field.  Tonight for Game 2, L.A. will use its best lefthanded weapon of the past 30+ years as Clayton Kershaw takes the hill for his 27th playoff start.  But the post-season hasn't always been kind to the veteran southpaw as Kershaw actually has a losing record in the playoffs (10-11) and his 4.22 ERA is almost two runs higher than the 2.43 number he's put up during the regular season.  Sure Kershaw has had a lot of success in his career against the Pads (2.03 career ERA), but he's never faced them in the post-season and it's safe to say this is the best San Diego lineup he's seen since he came into the league 12 years ago.  Meanwhile, Zach Davies has had similar success vs. the Dodgers, as his career ERA vs. L.A. is 2.37, with a 1.05 WHIP.  This an advantageous situation for the Padres who are 11-4 in their last 15 games in double-revenge situations.  Take San Diego as a big underdog.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays.  After getting blown out in Game 1 on Monday, the Rays needed to come back strong on Tuesday against the resurgent New York offense and pitching.  That's exactly what Tampa did, taking Game 2 by a 7-5 final.  Tonight is the Yanks opportunity to grab the lead back in what promises to be a close and tough three-of-five series. Veteran RH Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound for New York and he'll be looking to atone for a sub-par performance in the Wild Card Series against Cleveland (4 IP; 6 ER).  The poor start against the Tribe notwithstanding, Tanaka has been a beast in the post-season throughout his career.  In nine lifetime playoff starts, the 31-year-old is 5-3 with a 2.70 ERA in 50 innings.  Perhaps more important is that Tanaka has faced the Rays 21 times (all starts) and he is 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA and 0.92 WHIP against them in just over 130 innings.  And Tanaka should enjoy his first career start in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros.  The Astros were not only the last American League Team to make it into the post-season (they locked down their spot with just two days to go in the regular season).  They were also the only AL club to make it in with a losing record.  So, naturally, people were thinking "last in, first out," and you can hardly blame them.  But here we are, two games into the second round, and Houston has yet to lose a game (4-0).  And the 'Stros are just one win away from a most unlikely appearance in the LCS.  The A's haven't had much of an answer through two games but you know they will pull out all the stops this afternoon.  So, it's fitting that they'll send their top rookie pitcher to the mound in LH Jesus Luzardo.  The just-turned-23-year-old had a forgettable start in the Wild Card series against the White Sox, so he's looking for a little redemption this afternoon in a must-win situation.  Luzardo is unbeaten in six daytime games (three starts) going 2-0 with a 3.46 ERA in 26 innings.  Take the A's.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros.  The Astros drew first blood in this series, taking Game 1 against the A's on Monday, putting up ten runs in the process.  Houston is now 3-0 in the playoffs and a season that's been the weirdest in history just keeps getting weirder.  LHP Sean Manaea may not have been the A's best starter over the course of the season as evidenced by his 4-3 record and 4.50 ERA in 11 starts.  But he was their best starter in the second half of the short campaign.  After a disastrous beginning which saw Manaea to 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA after four starts covering 15 innings the 28-year-old southpaw really settled down.  Through his last seven starts, Manaea didn't allow more than three ER (allowing just one four times) and he cut that 9.00 ERA in half.  Most important is that the A's went 6-1 in those.  He didn't get a start in the Wild Card series so this is Manaea's first action in 13 days, but he has some serious redemption on his mind nonetheless.  His only previous playoff start was an ugly loss to the Rays last season.  The A's are 15-3 in Manaea's last 18 daytime starts.  Take Oakland.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays 'under' the total.  The Wild Card round is over and now we move on to the Division Series which will be a best-of-five format.  They say timing is everything and certainly the Yankees are proving that.  In the regular season, the offense for New York's AL squad could barely hit the broad side of a barn, batting just .247.  But in their two games in the first round -- in which they made quick work of the Indians -- the Yanks batted .307 with a 1.06 OPS, the best such offensive numbers for any of the 16 MLB teams.  Now the question is -- can they keep that up?  They likely don't need to bat .307 tonight with their RH ace Gerrit Cole going to the mound.   Cole pitched the first game in the Cleveland series, and with a 3-of-5 format the Yanks might get to use him twice in this one and that could be huge for them.  He is a post-season machine, going 7-4 with a 2.60 ERA in 11 career playoff starts.  And he's be pitching with an extra day of rest tonight.  Likewise, Rays southpaw Blake Snell will be pitching with extra rest following his 5 2-3 scoreless innings in last week's 3-1 win over Toronto.  In Snell's last three starts, he's given up just 4 runs in 16 2-3 innings (2.16 ERA; 0.90 WHIP), and all three of those games went 'under' the total.  Even better:  27 of the last 46 meetings between the Yankees + Rays have gone 'under,' and I look for a relatively-low scoring game tonight.  Take the 'under.'  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.