Sports Picks & Predictions

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Golden State.  The Nuggets come into this game off 3 straight point spread defeats.  But Denver is a spectacular 29-8 ATS off 3 (or more) ATS losses, if it was matched up against a .400 (or better) foe, including 9-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  Grab the points with Mike Malone's men.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Golden State game.  The Warriors blew out Denver in the first two games -- both played in San Francisco -- by scores of 123-107 and 126-106.  The Warriors have been installed as a road favorite tonight, and have gone UNDER the total in 25 of 37 games as a road favorite.  Additionally, NBA teams off back to back games in which they scored 123+ points have gone UNDER 67.7% in the Playoffs since 1990.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Dallas.  We played on the Mavericks in Game 2, and were rewarded with a 110-104 upset victory.  Unfortunately for Dallas, it's 13-34 ATS vs. .333 (or better) revenge-minded foes, if Dallas won its previous game.  Take Utah to bounce back on Thursday.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Francisco Giants.  At the ripe age of 35 years old, RHP Carlos Carrasco is off to arguably his best start since he came into the Majors with Cleveland back in 2009.  Carrasco has survived major elbow surgery, multiple other injuries, and even a bout with cancer and yet this could be his best season yet -- and his best chance at winning a World Series ring.  The Mets are being cautious with him thus far, which is one reason why despite a 0.84 ERA over his first two starts, Carrasco is still looking for his first victory.  Perhaps facing the Giants, against whom Carrasco has a 3.00 career ERA, will do the trick.  With Jacob deGrom dealing with an injury that could keep him out for a while, the Mets need Carrasco to step up, and he's done that and more already this season.  Despite the loss on Wednesday, the Mets are still 38-17 in their last 55 games as a home favorite.  Take New York.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche minus 1.5 goals over the Seattle Kraken.  The Avs lost a tough one at home on Monday, 3-2, to the Capitals.  Despite Colorado's dominance this season, the loss wasn't all that surprising given that the Caps have the best road record in the league and that they seem to have Colorado's number lately.  Tonight should be a different story as the Avs visit Seattle.  The Kraken have had a tough go of it in their first NHL season with a 25-44-6 record overall and just 14-21-3 here at home.  Despite the Avs' loss the other night, they still are tied for the best record in the league with Florida, and have an outside shot at a second consecutive President's Trophy.  The problem for Colorado in its chase for the most points is that tonight's game will be the last game against a non-playoff team.  The Panthers, on the other hand, have a much easier finishing schedule.  But the good news for tonight's game is that the Avs tend to not lose back-to-back games.  In its last 15 games immediately following a defeat -- going back to November 6 -- Colorado is 13-2.  Even better:  Seattle is on a 2-game win streak, but has yet to win three-in-a-row in five previous attempts this season.  The Kraken is also 0-4 in its last four after allowing two goals or less in its previous game.  Take the Avs minus 1.5 goals.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Washington Capitals. The Caps head southwest after their big win in Colorado on Monday. Tonight will be a rematch of the 2018 Cup Finals on the Vegas Strip as the Knights go for the Season sweep (they shut out the Caps in DC back on January 24). The Knights have lost two straight and sit 5 points behind the Stars for the final Wild Card berth, with five games to play (though Dallas has 6 games left). If Vegas wins tonight and then beats the Sharks in the next game -- which it should -- then its next game is against Dallas, the team immediately in front of it. So, Vegas still has some hope left, though it probably has to go 5-0 to end the season for any chance at all. The Knights were upset on Monday by the Devils, 3-2, despite out-shooting New Jersey 44-28. Robin Lehner was in goal in that game and allowed three goals on just 28 shots so don't be surprised if Logan Thompson (2.55 GAA; .922 saves pct) is back in the crease tonight. Thompson's won five of his last six outings. Vegas is also 6-2 in its last eight home games and 5-2 in its last seven when playing on one day of rest. Finally, the home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings of these two. Take the Knights. As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves.  Last season, Los Angeles ended its regular season on a 13-game home win streak.  It then started this regular season with seven straight wins at home.  It did lose at home yesterday, but is now 20-1 its last 21 regular season home games.  We'll take Los Angeles in this rare daytime "businessman's special" home game, at Chavez Ravine.  Tony Gonsolin will get the start for Dave Roberts' crew, and Gonsolin is in "mid-season" form early on, as he has given up just 1 earned run over seven innings.  In contrast, Braves starter Charlie Morton has not flashed his strong stuff, as he's given up seven earned runs, 4 walks, and 11 hits in 10 1/3 innings, for a 6.10 ERA, and a 1.45 WHIP.  The Dodgers are a dominant 76-27 (+25.8 net games on the moneyline) in daytime home games, while Morton's teams have gone 38-52 (minus 22.4 net games) in his career daytime starts.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Minnesota. Memphis was the league's #1 point spread team this season, with a 52-29-1 ATS record (64.1% ATS). But it comes into this Game 2 off back to back SU/ATS losses, as it fell to Boston, 139-110, in its final regular season game, and lost to Minnesota, 130-117, on Saturday. We'll take Memphis to bounce back tonight, as NBA teams with a .620 (or better) ATS win percentage have cashed 68.9% at home in the post-season since 1990. And favorites of -4 (or more) points off back to back losses by 13+ points have cashed 75% in the post-season since 1990. Indeed, we just saw this situation last Wednesday when the New Orleans Pelicans (-5) defeated the San Antonio Spurs, 113-103, after losing their two previous games by 27 and 21 points. Finally, favorites have cashed 88% in the playoffs if they gave up 123+ points in back to back games. Take Memphis minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Miami Heat.  These two teams have met twice over the previous 11 days, with the Hawks losing by 4 and 24 points.  We'll play on the double-revenge-minded road underdog tonight, as #1-seeds (like Miami) stumble in Game 2 of a series more often than not after posting a blowout win in Game 1.  Indeed, #1-seeded teams have covered just 28% as a favorite of 6+ points against .520 (or better) foes following a 6-point (or better) win to open a series.  That doesn't bode well for Erik Spoelstra's men tonight.  Nor does the fact the Heat are an awful 26-55, 32% ATS at home off a division home win.  Grab the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 goals over the New Jersey Devils. It's crunch-time in Las Vegas. The team which has made the NHL post-season in each of its first four years in the League is in danger of not making it in 2022. Prior to the Monday games, the Golden Knights are sitting three points behind the Los Angeles Kings, and four points behind the Dallas Stars and Nashville Predators with six games to go. The Knights will need to overtake at least one of those teams to reach the post-season. The good news for Vegas is that it has played one less game than Los Angeles -- the closest team to it in the standings. But the bad news is that the Kings' final five games are all against teams outside of the Playoff picture. So, Vegas definitely has the odds against it. Tonight, the Golden Knights will look to sweep the season series against the Devils, who they defeated last December, 5-3. In fact, Vegas has beaten the Devils in each of the last four meetings going back to January 2019. The Devils are also 2-5 in their last seven games against Western Conference foes including 0-4 in their last four vs. the Pacific Division. Meanwhile, the Knights are 41-14 in their last 55 vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Take Vegas minus 1.5 goals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Utah Jazz. In last Sunday's final regular season game, Jason Kidd's gameplan was to play Luka Doncic for three quarters against the San Antonio Spurs. But with less than three minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, his All-Star strained his left calf. Sometimes, one's best-laid plans go awry. The Mavericks put up a game fight in Saturday's 99-93 loss, but had poor offensive execution, and missed too many free throws. Certainly, they'll have to be better in those areas tonight. The good news for Dallas is that underdogs off a SU/ATS loss that are down 1 game in a playoff series have covered 57.3% since 1990. And the Mavericks are 19-8 ATS as an underdog off a loss when they've trailed in a playoff series. Take the Mavericks + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over New Orleans.  The Pelicans are (by far) the worst team in the playoffs.  They were 36-46 in the regular season, but were able to sneak into the playoffs by defeating a Los Angeles Clippers team which was without its All-Star, Paul George, due to COVID-19.  Unfortunately for the Pelicans, Phoenix -- the league's #1 team with 64 wins -- won't be missing any key personnel this afternoon.  Even worse for the Pelicans:  it's playing this game with just 1 day off, while the Suns have been off for 6 days.  And .650 (or worse) teams have covered just 26% of playoff games since 1990 if their opponent had at least 5 more days of rest.  Moreover, NBA teams with a losing record are 51-92-7 ATS their last 150 playoff games.  And teams with a win percentage at least .325 worse than their opponent have gone 0-8 SU/ATS in the opening game of a playoff series.  Lay the points with the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the San Jose Sharks.  The red-hot Minnesota Wild were 12-3 in their last 15 games coming into Saturday's all-important match-up with the St. Louis Blues.  Unfortunately for them, the Blues prevailed in overtime, 6-5, thereby knocking them out of a tie for second place in the Central Division.  Minnesota hopes that setback is temporary as it regroups today to host the 29-45 Sharks at the Xcel Energy Center.  Unlike the Wild, San Jose isn't playing for anything as it looks ahead to what it hopes will be a productive off-season leading to a winning campaign in 2022-2023.  The Sharks have been particularly bad on the road, winning just five times in their last 24 games away from the Bay Area.  They are also 7-20 in their last 27 vs. teams from the Western Conference including 0-6 in their last six vs. Central clubs.  Meanwhile Minnesota is 4-0 in its last four vs. the Pacific Division and 65-29 in its last 94 vs. teams with a winning percentage of .400 or less.  Take the Wild.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Kings over the Columbus Blue Jackets.  The Kings are locked in a tight battle with the Vegas Golden Knights for a playoff spot.  Los Angeles sits 1 point ahead of Vegas, but has also played 1 more game.  The good news for Los Angeles is that each of its last six games are against teams that are outside of the Playoff picture.  Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets are a poor 3-10 their last 13 against teams that would be in the Playoffs with their current point totals.  We played against Los Angeles in its last game, and were rewarded with a 9-3 blowout win by Colorado.  Off that horrible game, we'll switch gears and take the Kings tonight, as they're 24-15 (+14.2 net games on the moneyline) off blowout loss by 3+ goals.  And they're 22-9 this season vs. Eastern conference teams.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Winnipeg Jets.  It's looking like the Panthers will earn the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference for the post-season but also still wants to make a push to overtake the Avalanche for the #1 NHL record.  In addition to having the best record in the Eastern Conference -- and the only team in there with over 50 victories -- the Panthers' +89 goal differential is also tops.  They've done it with a balanced attack, which is evident when you look at all the offensive leaders in the league and the only Florida name you see is Jonathan Huberdeau, who leads in assists (77) and is second in points (105).  The Panthers come into this home contest against the Jets having won eight games in a row, including a huge 7-6 OT win over the Maple Leafs that could serve as a Quarter-Finals preview.  They have been putting the puck on net with a frequency rarely seen, posting 40 shots or more in seven of those eight games, including 55 in their last one -- a 3-2 win over the Ducks.  The Jets are 1-4 in their last five games against teams with a winning record.  And they're also 9-19 (minus 6.65 net games on the moneyline) as an underdog, including 1-6 when the O/U was more than 6 goals.  Meanwhile Florida is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings of these two, and 14-1 its last 15 when priced as a favorite of -180 (or more).  Take the Panthers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins minus 1.5 goals over the Ottawa Senators.  While the Caps keep winning games, the Bruins are losing them, making the race for the playoff match-ups in the East very interesting.  The Bruins lost to the Blues on Tuesday night, despite out-shooting them by 11 (41-30).  That's three losses in their last four games and they're now only three points ahead of the Caps in the Wild Card race.  They're also just one game behind the Lightning, so their last nine games could mean the difference between a top-three Divisional finish and the last available playoff spot.  They're back home again tonight, but instead of facing a team that is fighting for its own playoff position, as St. Louis is doing, it's the Senators that are coming to Bean Town.  Ottawa is 14-22 on the road this season.  And although it's won three of its last four away from home, those three wins came against the likes of the Canadiens and Red Wings (twice).  Series don't get much more one-sided than this one as Boston is 14-2 in the last 16 meetings and 6-0 in the last six at home.  Take the Bruins minus 1.5 goals.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Los Angeles Kings.  The Avs are on a major roll right now, with six straight wins.  And they'll have an advantage tonight against an unrested Kings team which played at Chicago last night.  Even worse for the Kings:  they're playing their 3rd game in four nights, and have to play without rest in a high-altitude city (Denver).  In contrast, Colorado is extremely well-rested, as it has been four days (April 9 vs Edmonton) since it has played.  The Avalanche are a terrific 22-2 at home off 3 (or more) wins.  And Colorado is 8-0 vs. the Kings since March 12, 2021, with the average win by 2.88 goals.  Take Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the St. Louis Blues.  The red-hot Bruins lost a tough one on Sunday afternoon in DC as the surging Capitals got the better of them in a tough, close-checking affair.  Despite now losing two of its last three, Boston needn't panic as it is still sitting in a very good position in the East with the #1 Wild Card spot looking secure and only one point behind the Lightning for a top-three finish in the Atlantic.  Most important, six of the Bruins last 10 games are here at home, beginning with this Monday night affair against a Blues squad that they haven't faced since October 2019.  The Blues come in having won their last five, however three of those victories were against the likes of the Islanders, Kraken, and Coyotes -- and all three at home.  They may be 42-30 overall, but on the road, the Blues are just a .500 team this season (17-17).  They are also just 3-8 in their last 11 games against teams from the East.  The Bruins come home after a week on the road, and they are 16-5 in their last 21 home games after a road trip of at least seven days.  Take Boston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs' chase for the #9 slot officially ended with last night's loss at home to the Golden State Warriors.  With nothing to play for tonight, we'll fade Gregg Popovich's crew in Dallas.  The Mavericks still aspire to get to the #3 position, which would happen with a win vs. San Antone, and a loss by the Warriors in New Orleans.  Since February 4, Dallas is 22-7 SU and 21-8 ATS.  And it's 24-3 SU and 18-9 ATS its last 27 when laying 9+ points.  The Mavericks blew out Portland by 50 points in its last game.  And NBA favorites off late-season wins (final 11 games of the season) by > 36 points have gone 28-0 SU and 20-7-1 ATS, including a perfect 7-0-1 ATS in their final home game of the season.  Lay the points with the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Clips continue to roll as we end the season.  Last night, they blew out Sacramento here, at home, 117-98.  And they're clearly on a mission, as their 4-game win streak started with a 153-119 victory AT MILWAUKEE -- in a game Paul George didn't even play!  Los Angeles is now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, with its only ATS defeat coming against the Suns, when Phoenix had to outscore the Clippers, 48-26, in the fourth quarter just to get the cover.  Still, Los Angeles played great for most of that game, as it even went on a 21-0 run to establish a huge lead.  Tonight, the Clippers will close out the season with a game against 24-57 Oklahoma City, which has long since been eliminated from playoff contention.  OKC comes into this game off a 120-101 loss at the Los Angeles Lakers.  And the Lakers had dropped eight straight games prior to that contest.  We'll lay the points, as NBA teams with a win percentage > .300 have gone 71.8% ATS since 2009 in the season's final regular season game vs. foes with a win percentage < .300.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This will not be a star-studded affair.  Denver's MVP Nikola Jokic is questionable to play tonight, while Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis are all out for the Lakers.  The Nuggets come into this game off a 122-109 blowout win over Memphis, on Thursday.  They currently reside in the 6th seed, and can get as high as #5 with a win tonight, and an improbable loss by Utah vs. Portland.  But it's extremely unlikely, and it may also not even be desirable by Denver, given that it might prefer the 2-3-6-7 pathway rather than the 1-4-5-8 path (so as to avoid playing Phoenix until the conference finals, at the earliest).  But regardless of Denver's incentive, we're going to lay the points tonight against the hapless Lakers.  This season, the Lakers were one of the biggest disappointments in league history.  They were tabbed by many to be one of the top 3 teams in the entire NBA, but wound up missing the playoffs entirely.  So, with this final game being played on the road, and also being Los Angeles' 3rd game in four days, we'll fade them, and lay the points with Denver.  Indeed, NBA road underdogs have gone 18-38 ATS in their final game of the regular season, if they were playing their 3rd game in four days, and their opponent was rested and off an ATS win.  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over Chicago.  The Bulls are 0-4 SU/ATS coming into this final regular season game.  We played against Chicago on Friday, and it was upset at home by Charlotte, 133-117.  That upset defeat doesn't bode well for Chicago tonight, as winning teams, off an upset loss in their final regular season home game, are a horrid 21.4% as road underdogs vs. other winning teams.  Take Minnesota minus the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over Toronto.  The Knicks are a home underdog to end the regular season, after blowing out Washington, 114-92, on Friday.  Since 1990, home dogs have cashed 58% in their final game of the regular season, if they were off a SU win in their previous game.  Take the Knicks + the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Detroit.  Philly is 50-31, and still has an outside shot at the #3 seed in the Eastern conference (it would need a win coupled with a Celtics loss).  We'll lay the points, as Philly will be playing this game with revenge from a 102-94 loss at Detroit 10 days ago.  But revenge-minded favorites of more than 12 points have gone 9-0 ATS since 1990 if it was the final game of the regular season for both teams.  Lay the points.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 goals over the Anaheim Ducks.  Not that long ago, the Hurricanes were considered favorites in the East.  They still have to be looked at as one of the most talented teams in the league, but anyone can see that the 'Canes are simply not playing their best hockey right now.  Carolina has lost three of its last four games and two of those came against non-playoff-caliber clubs in the Sabres and Islanders.  With 10 games to go in the regular season, there is certainly time for the 'Canes to turn it around, and a Sunday affair against a sub-par Western Conference team may be just what they need.  The Ducks looked very promising in the first half of the season, but you'd be hard-pressed to find another team in the league that has nose-dived in the second half as dramatically as Anaheim.  Since January 31, the Ducks are a God-awful 6-20.  The 'Canes have been dominating teams outside of their conference as they are 53-21 in their last 74 games vs. clubs from the West and 21-7 in their last 28 vs. the Pacific Division.  Take Carolina -1.5 goals.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Washington.  The Hornets are in 10th place, but are still alive to move up to 7th place with a win (they would need the Cavaliers, Nets and Hawks to lose for that to happen).  The upshot, of course, is that Charlotte will play this game to win.  Washington, meanwhile, is 35-46, and out of the playoff picture.  The Wizards were blown out in each of their last two games -- 118-103 by the Hawks, and 114-92 by the Knicks.  We'll go against Washington this afternoon, as NBA teams off back to back 15-point losses have covered just 20% since 1990 in their final regular season game, when matched up against a foe off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take the Hornets minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Indiana.  We played on Brooklyn against Cleveland on Friday, and will come right back with them this afternoon.  The Nets will secure the #7 slot with a victory, while the Pacers will surely be happy to see this horrible season end.  Indiana has lost its last nine games, and has given up more than 120 points in each of its last eight, including a 133-120 defeat at Philadelphia yesterday.  We'll fade the Pacers as underdogs have covered just 21% since 1990 in their final regular season game after giving up 125+ points in their previous game, and playing an opponent off a straight-up win.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the Washington Capitals.  The Pens come into this afternoon game having lost three games in a row for the sixth time this season.  In all but one of those previous five, Pittsburgh was able to snap its losing streak in its next contest.  They're hoping to do the same today against their biggest rival so they can solidify their third place lead over the Caps -- which right now stands at six points.  It's worth nothing that those three losses came against the Rangers and the Avalanche (twice) -- and two of the losses were on the road.  But both the Rangers and Avs are stronger opponents than the Caps -- at least as far as the point totals are concerned.  The Caps do come in having won three of their last five, but they are just 1-4 in their last five games against teams with a winning record, and 17-20 (minus 10.1 net games on the moneyline) off a win in their previous game.  The Pens were shut out at Madison Square Garden, 3-0, in their last game but are 5-1 in their last six games immediately following a loss by more than two goals.  Take Pittsburgh.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Phoenix.  After a horrible 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS run, the Jazz snapped out of their funk with an overtime win against Memphis, and a 36-point blowout victory over Oklahoma City.  Tonight, they'll set their sights on the league's best team.  And Utah will no doubt want to play well -- if only to just boost their confidence -- given they might match-up with these Suns in the quarter-finals.  Utah is 46-24 ATS at home when playing with rest off an 18-point (or greater) win.  And the Jazz also fall into a 61% ATS "Last Home Game" system of mine which plays on certain .375 (or better) teams in their final home game, if they were off a SU win.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets over the Chicago Bulls.  Chicago is -- for all intents and purposes -- locked into the #6 seed in the Eastern conference, as the Raptors will nail down the #5 seed tonight when it plays the 20-60 Houston Rockets (a game which starts 30 minutes prior to this contest).  But Charlotte can rise as high as the #7 seed, so it will be highly motivated to play this game from start to finish.  The Hornets blew out Orlando, 128-101, last night, and fall into 116-69 and 91-51 ATS late-season systems of mine that play on certain teams off wins.  In contrast, Chicago comes into this game on a 3-game SU/ATS home losing streak.  But teams on 3-game SU/ATS losing streaks are a soft 36% as a favorite in the final four games of a regular season, including a horrid 4-21-1 ATS if they were playing their 3rd game in four nights (which Chicago is).  Take Charlotte + the points.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the St. Louis Blues.  While some playoff-bound teams in the NHL seem to be wilting late in the season (e.g., Tampa Bay), others are doing just the opposite.  The Minnesota Wild are one of those teams that could be peaking at just the right time.  The Wild have lost just two of their last 11 games and one of those was a 4-3 OT defeat at the hands of a very good Penguins club (while the other was a 6-2 loss at Nashville on Tuesday).  It seems as though one of the shrewdest moves at the deadline was Minny's acquisition of Vezina Trophy-winning goalie Marc-Andre Fleury from Chicago (for a conditional first-round pick in 2022).  Fleury has been spectacular with his new club so far (3-1 in four games with a .930 saves pct and 2.30 GAA).  And having Fleury between the pipes gives the Wild a bit of a two-headed monster as Cam Talbot is also an All Star-caliber net-minder in his own right.  So, now Minnesota has the luxury of choosing between the two on almost any given night.  The Wild are a solid 13-5 in their last 18 games after scoring less than 3 goals in their previous contest.  And they're 15-5 off a blowout loss by more than 3 goals.  Take Minnesota.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Cleveland.  Brooklyn (finally) showed some intestinal fortitude when it roared back from a 67-50 halftime deficit to beat New York, 110-98, on Wednesday.  On the heels of that 60-31 2nd half, we'll lay the points with Brooklyn in this crucial match-up against Cleveland tonight.  This game will determine the #7 seed (assuming Brooklyn can beat the hapless Indiana Pacers on Sunday), so both teams will be fully motivated.  But Cleveland is currently in a 2-8 ATS tailspin, including an upset loss at Orlando in their last game.  And that doesn't bode well tonight, as nba teams have cashed just 37% since 1990 in their final road game, if they were off back to back losses, and their opponent was rested, and off back to back wins.  Take the Nets.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles.  The 2021-22 Lakers have been the most disappointing team in recent memory.  Pegged by many to be a Top 3 NBA team, the Lakers flamed out, and failed to make the Playoffs entirely.  It's true Los Angeles sustained injuries this season.  But so did Golden State, yet the Warriors powered through, and currently reside in the #3 spot out West.  Golden State's on a 3-game ATS win streak, and has won its last 2 games, straight-up.  However, Dallas is right behind Golden State, and sits just a half-game behind, so I expect the Warriors to be ultra-focused tonight.  The Warriors did lose their previous game to the Lakers.  But they're 93-60 ATS when playing with same-season revenge, including 10-1 ATS their last 11 at home .  And they're 38-24 ATS off 3 ATS wins.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Memphis.  The Nuggets are still incentivized to win, as Minnesota is chasing down their necks for the #6 spot, while Denver can still catch Utah for the #5 spot.  This is Memphis' final road game of the season.  The Grizzlies are locked into the #2 seed in the Western conference, so they don't have the same incentive as Denver (but, of course, that's not to say the Grizzlies won't continue to play hard).  Regardless, since 1990, playoff-bound NBA teams that were off a SU loss in their previous game, have covered just 37% in their final road game of the season, if they were installed as an underdog.  Lay the points with Denver.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes minus the 1.5 goals over the Buffalo Sabres.  The Hurricanes looked like world-beaters and the likely favorite to get to the Cup Finals from the East only a few short weeks ago.  But the team which won their only NHL Championship back in 2006 has lost eight of its last 12 games, including three of its last four coming into tonight.  The good news is that Carolina still has a dozen games to try to get itself straightened out for the playoffs.  That should be plenty of time for Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Frederik Andersen & Co. to figure things out.  This is a back-to-back revenge situation for the 'Canes who just lost to the Sabres in Buffalo, 4-2, on Tuesday.  Still, the Sabres' 3.62 goals-against-average in 34 road games this season ranks as the fifth-worst such number in the league (tied with Philadelphia).  Coupled with their 2.56 road goal scoring rate, that results in a negative differential of greater than one goal away from home.  Buffalo is 8-18 in its last 26 when playing the second game of a home-and-home series.  Take the Hurricanes minus 1.5 goals.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston.  Each of these teams enters tonight's game with 30 losses, so the winner will have a leg-up on a higher seed in the Playoffs.  This is Milwaukee's final home game of the season, NBA teams are 128-96-4 ATS when playing their final home game, and priced from -3.5 to -7 points (Milwaukee is 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in this situation).  Take Milwaukee.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Phoenix.  The Suns played last night, and defeated the Lakers in Phoenix.  But off that win, we'll fade the Suns against a revenge-minded Clippers group looking to reach the .500 mark.  Los Angeles has won its last two games -- both in impressive fashion.  They blew out Milwaukee on the road, 153-119.  And then came home to whip New Orleans 119-100.  The Clippers already defeated the Suns here at Crypto.com Arena this season, and are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 home regular season meetings vs. Phoenix.  Finally, the Suns fall into a negative 36.5% ATS late-season system of mine which goes against certain unrested teams off a win, when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Suns have rolled to the best record in the league.  They're 62-16 with four games to go.  But Phoenix was upset by the Oklahoma City Thunder in its last game, and that was its second straight loss, overall.  And it also was its 3rd straight ATS defeat.  But Phoenix is 5-0 ATS this season off 3 ATS losses.  And it's 63-38 ATS off 3 point spread losses when it owned a winning record.  The Suns have won six straight vs. the Lakers, and the last five have been by 29, 18, 10, 13 and 30 points.  Take the Suns minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Denver.  The Spurs are closing in on an improbable berth in the Play-in round.  Prior to the season, most pegged the Spurs to win between 24 and 28 games this season.  But, with four to play, San Antonio is 33-45, and is on the doorstep of clinching the #10 seed (with an outside shot of finishing #9).  The Spurs are 14-5 ATS as road underdogs of +6 (or more) points this season (and 27-10 ATS their last 37 in this role).  Take San Antonio + the points.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis.  Certainly, these two teams have had contrasting seasons.  Utah had hopes to repeat its strong 2020-21 season, where it owned the #1 record in the entire league (52-20).  But the Jazz have struggled, and are in 6th in the West, with a 46-32 record.  In contrast, the Grizzlies were 8th in the West last season, with a 38-34 record, but have taken a massive leap forward this year.  The Grizzlies own the NBA's #2 record (55-23), and also are the league's best team against the point spread (65.3% ATS).  Memphis, perhaps, had its best game of the season this past Friday when it upset the league's best team -- Phoenix -- 122-114, as a 7.5-point home underdog.  But off that emotional win, we'll fade the Grizzlies on the road tonight, as they fall into a negative 146-234 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off wins over > .800 foes.  The fact remains that Memphis is locked into the #2 spot out West, and has less incentive to win tonight than does Utah.  The Jazz are in a tight battle with Denver for the #5 slot, and can also move as high as #4, and fall as low as #7.  Take the Jazz minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season on Sunday, when they shocked Phoenix, 117-96, as a 14-point home underdog.  But tonight the Thunder aren't an underdog -- they're favored against Portland (which has lost 7 straight).  And favored teams have covered just 33% since 1990 off an upset win as a 13-point (or greater underdog), if they were matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Trail Blazers + the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Chicago.   The Bucks come into tonight's game off back to back upset home losses -- to the Clippers and Mavericks.  But Milwaukee is a fantastic 42-10 SU and 38-14 ATS in the regular season as a favorite of -3.5 to -11 points, if it was off back to back defeats, including a perfect 9-0 ATS in division games.  Lay the points with the Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over Colorado.  This is the 2nd of a home-and-home series between the two clubs.  Colorado won in Denver, 3-2, on Saturday.  We'll take the Penguins in this rematch, as they're 30-11 when playing with revenge, including 11-0 at home if they lost the previous meeting by a single goal.  And they're 46-22 (+7.4 net games on the moneyline) at home when the total was 6 (or more) goals.  The Pens are also 7-3 the last 10 meetings here, in Pittsburgh, vs. Colorado.  Take the Penguins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Los Angeles Kings.  The top two teams in the Pacific Division face off tonight for the second time in less than a week.  The Kings just beat the Flames in Calgary on the last day of March (although it took a shootout to do it), so this is a revenge situation tonight.  The lead that the Flames had enjoyed over the Kings in the Pacific has been dwindling of late, thanks to a home-stand that didn't go as planned in Calgary.  In the just-concluded six straight games that the Flames enjoyed at home, they managed only two wins.  Maybe a trip south to the recently re-named Crypto.com Arena (it sounds so strange not calling it Staples Center) will reverse their fortunes.  The Kings are anything but healthy right now, with no fewer than eight regular skaters currently out with various ailments.  Los Angeles also hasn't exactly been tearing it up at home this season (18-18) -- and in their last nine here they are just 4-5.  Even worse:  the Kings are 1-5 in their last six games following a victory, while Calgary is 5-2 in its last seven road games.  Finally, the Flames are an awesome 42-25 (+11.2 net games on the moneyline) after giving up 4+ goals.  Take Calgary.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over New Orleans.  The Clippers welcomed All-Star Paul George back on Tuesday, and they defeated Utah, 121-115.  We played on Los Angeles in that home game, and we'll back the Clippers again tonight, at home.  Los Angeles comes into this game off the highest-scoring victory in the NBA against a winning opponent the past two seasons.  Los Angeles walloped Milwaukee, 153-119, and home teams have covered 71 percent since 1990 after scoring more than 148 points in a win.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over San Antonio.  We played on San Antonio two nights ago, and were rewarded with a 130-111 blowout win over these Trail Blazers.  But we'll take the double-digits with Portland in the rematch, as double-digit road underdogs have covered 68.2% in the regular season over the last 31 years, if the two teams were playing the 2nd of back-to-back games, and our underdog lost SU/ATS in the prior meeting.  Take the points with Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Vancouver Canucks over the Vegas Golden Knights.  Both of these teams are on the outside-looking-in when it comes to the Western conference playoff race.  But Vancouver is in the MUCH WORSE position, as it is 8 points behind Dallas, while Vegas sits just 1 points in back of the Stars.  So this game is critical for the Canucks' post-season hopes.  We'll take the homestanding Canucks, as they have had the last three days off, and are 12-3 when playing with 3 days (or more) of rest.  Additionally, the Golden Knights have won just two of their last nine road games.  Both of those wins (by scores of 3-0 and 5-2) were against Seattle in Vegas' two most recent games.  Unfortunately for Vegas, it's a poor 10-14 (minus 13.2 net games on the moneyline) off back to back blowout wins by 3+ goals.  Take Vancouver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Capitals over the Minnesota Wild.   Unlike the West, the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference of the NHL is pretty clear.  There is a 13-point gap between the Caps -- in the final Wild Card Spot -- and the next team (NYI).  Exactly where the Caps finish the season is still up for grabs, and they certainly would like to improve their position between now and the end of the month.  Washington has had almost a week to think about one of its worst losses of the season -- a 6-1 thrashing at the hands of the Hurricanes last Monday.  With the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament coming into Minneapolis, the Wild have had to leave town after a hugely successful nine-game home-stand (7-2).  They upset the Hurricanes in Raleigh last night, but are just 2-5 in their last seven games playing on zero days of rest.  The Wild are also 2-7 in their last nine trips to Washington.  On the flip side, the extended break should do the Caps good as they are 18-8 in their last 26 playing with three or more days of rest.  Take Washington.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Rangers -1.5 goals over the Philadelphia Flyers.  Rangers fans really hate seeing their team lose at home these days.  Even more, they hate seeing them get shut out at home by their cross-town rivals, which is what happened on Friday, here, at Madison Square Garden, when the Islanders came in and blanked the home team, 3-0.  That had to hurt, especially considering the Rangers are battling the Penguins for second place in their division (and the home ice advantage which comes with it).  The Flyers on the other hand have phoned in the season.  They were bad before the trade deadline but then they got worse when they traded their only true franchise player -- Captain Claude Giroux -- to the Panthers.  In five games since the trade, Philly is 1-4 and has been out-scored by a combined 21-11 in those four losses.  Sure, there's a lot of great history between these two teams and they've seen many exciting and close battles in the past, but tonight does not figure to be one.  Philly is 9-19 in the last 28 trips to New York and the favorite is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings.  Take the Rangers minus 1.5 goals.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Brooklyn Nets.  These two teams are tied at 40-37 with five games remaining.  So, this game will go a long way toward determining each team's playoff seed.  Atlanta has won and covered its last four games, while Brooklyn has lost its last three in a row to the point spread.  And that's key, as home teams have cashed 65% since 1990 in the final five regular season games, if they were on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak.  Even better:  Atlanta plays this game with revenge from 2 losses to Brooklyn earlier in the season.  And winning teams, off back to back wins, have cashed 65% since 1990 as home underdogs when playing with double-revenge.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Villanova.  We played on each of these teams in the last round, and easily got the $$$ with Kansas -5.5 over Miami (76-50) and Villanova +2.5 over Houston (50-44).  We'll lay the points with the #1-seeded Jayhawks on Saturday, and go against the #2-seeded Wildcats off their upset win.  Indeed, NCAA Tournament #2 seeds are a woeful 0-12-2 ATS off an upset tourney win, if they were an underdog of 6 or less points in their previous game.  And NCAA teams off an upset win, have also gone just 28-49-2 ATS vs. #1 seeds, if they weren't getting 9+ points.  Even better:  teams (like Kansas) off blowout NCAA Tourney wins by more than 25 points have gone 56-35-4 ATS when priced from +1 to -10 points.  Finally, the Jayhawks are a fantastic 52-26 ATS when priced as a favorite of -3.5 to -13.5 against a foe off 3 ATS wins.  Lay the points with Kansas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers over the New Orleans Pelicans.  It's "do-or-die" for Anthony Davis & Co.  The Lakers will likely have to go 4-2 or 5-1 over their final 6 games in order to leapfrog San Antonio for the #10 seed in the Western conference.  But it will be a tall task, as the Lakers have road games vs. the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets among their final six games.  So, this game is a virtual "must-win."  We'll take Los Angeles, as it falls into a 133-95 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, LeBron James' teams are 19-11 ATS their last 30 off 4+ losses.  And they've cashed 61% in his career as a home favorite off back to back losses, when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Portland.  The Spurs come into tonight's game off a heart-breaking loss to Memphis.  But the Spurs are still 4-1 SU/ATS their last five games, and currently reside in 10th place in the Western conference, which would earn them a spot in the Play-in tournament.  San Antonio also owns the tie-breaker over 11th-seeded Los Angeles, and has the easier remaining schedule, to boot.  This will be the first of back-to-back home games vs. the injury-riddled Trail Blazers, so it should be two games in the win column for the Spurs.  When the Spurs and Blazers met nine days ago in Portland, it was a blowout from the start, as the Spurs sprinted out to a 45-27 lead after 1 quarter en route to a 37-point win.  Unfortunately for Portland, two of its starters in that game (Trendon Watford, Justise Winslow) are now injured and won't suit up tonight.  The Spurs are 50-0 SU and 35-14-1 ATS when favored by more than 13 points off a straight-up loss.  Lay the points with San Antonio.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Washington Wizards.  The last time Dallas had home court advantage in the opening Playoff round (i.e., seeded 4th or better) was in 2011, when it won the NBA Championship.  So, the Mavericks are on a mission to earn a high seed, and currently are 2 games ahead of Denver and Utah for the all-important home court advantage in round 1.  Since New Year's Eve, Dallas is 32-11 SU and 28-15 ATS.  And it's 10-1 ATS its last 11 (and 24-9-2 ATS its last 35) on the road when playing with revenge.  With the Mavs, indeed, playing with revenge from a 6-point loss to Washington earlier in the season, we'll lay the points tonight.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Los Angeles.  We played against the Jazz on Tuesday night, and were rewarded with an upset win by the LA Clippers.  That was Utah's fifth straight defeat.  But all four were on the road.  Tonight's game is back in Salt Lake City, where the Jazz have gone 142-97-5 ATS off back to back ATS losses when not favored by 13.5 points.  Additionally, the Jazz were defeated twice by Los Angeles earlier this season, and fall into several of my better NBA revenge systems, with records of 87-48, 58-32 and 155-98 ATS.  Finally, NBA teams with a win percentage > .529 have cashed 63% at home off 5+ losses, when not getting more than 2 points.  Lay the points with Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the New Jersey Devils.  The Bruins were shellacked by Toronto, 6-4, on Tuesday, but were arguably the hottest team in the league for the month of March.  In fact, since February 19, Boston's NHL team has compiled a blistering 14-4 record.  But nobody knows better than the Bruins that having a great six week run a month before the playoffs could mean absolutely nothing, and that's why Boston wants to stay focused on playing at the same level into April.   And it's game like the one tonight where keeping that focus is ultra-critical.  Sure, the Devils are going nowhere this season and they would seem to be completely out-manned in this situation, but a caged dog can be awfully dangerous and the Bruins can ill-afford to have a let-down against a bad team, especially given how close the standings are (Boston is just three points ahead of the Capitals for the final Wild Card).  This is not a friendly place for the Devils as they are just 5-16 in their last 21 at TD Garden.  The Bruins are also 31-12 in the last 43 meetings of these two, while the favorite is 36-17 in the last 53.  Finally, the Bruins are a solid 7-1 this season after allowing 5+ goals (and 10-1 after allowing 3+ goals in back-to-back games).  Take Boston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Xavier Musketeers + the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies have certainly been impressive in this year's NIT Tournament.  They kicked things off with a 74-62 win over Alcorn State, and then followed that up with blowouts of Oregon (75-60), Wake Forest (67-52) and Washington State (72-56).  But off those four double-digit wins, we'll fade Texas A&M and grab the points with Xavier.  Indeed, since 1990, NCAA teams have cashed just 29% in the non-conference, post-season tournaments when favored by less than 16 points (or PK) off four straight wins by 12+ points.  That doesn't bode well for the Aggies tonight.  Nor does the fact that Xavier is a powerful 43-18-3 ATS as an underdog after covering the spread by 6+ points in its previous game, including 14-1 ATS its last 15 post-season games.  Take the Musketeers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Golden State.  The Suns come into tonight's match-up on an 8-game win streak, and refuse to take the pedal off the metal.  Phoenix has won its last eight games by 29, 16, 17, 27, 3, 9, 10 and 10 points for a 7-1 ATS record.  We'll lay the points with the Suns tonight, as they're 18-0 straight-up, and 17-1 ATS as a favorite when playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the year!  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Memphis.  San Antonio has passed the Lakers for the 10th overall seed in the Western conference (the two teams are tied at 31-44, but the Spurs own the tie-breaker).  So, this game is hugely critical for the Spurs' aspiration to reach the Play-in round.  In contrast, this game has relatively little meaning for Memphis, as it is virtually locked into the #2 position, as it is 5 games ahead of Golden State, with just six to play.  The Spurs lost at Memphis by 13 points four weeks ago.  But the Spurs are 36-21-1 ATS at home in the regular season when playing with revenge.  Take San Antonio.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over Boston.  With just 12 days left in the season, there's a 4-team logjam at the top of the Eastern conference.  Miami sits in first, a half-game ahead of Milwaukee, 1 game ahead of Boston, and 1.5 games ahead of Philadelphia.  So, tonight's game will go a long way toward determining the eventual Playoff seeds.  We'll grab the points with Miami, as it is 16-6 ATS as an underdog this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. foes with a .610 (or better) win percentage.  Take the Heat.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Utah Jazz.  Paul George has been upgraded to 'probable' to play tonight, and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the homestanding Clippers.  George (24.7 ppg; 7.1 rpg; 5.5 apg) has been absent since December 22, and the Clippers have faltered badly.  With George in the lineup this season, the Clippers actually have had a winning record; without him, they haven't.  He missed both games earlier this season at Utah, and the Jazz blew out Los Angeles in those two games.  But this game is at home, where the Clippers are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four meetings, with the average victory by 14 points.  Utah is an awful 2-18 SU and 3-16-1 ATS on the road when the Jazz weren't favored by 3 or more points.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Xavier Musketeers + the points over St. Bonaventure.  The Bonnies have no doubt been impressive in their run to Madison Square Garden.  St. Bonaventure was a #5 seed when the bracket was released, and has won three road games (against Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia) to reach this semi-final round.  The Bonnies were underdogs in each of those three games.  But now they are favored. And St. Bonaventure is a wallet-breaking 17-26 ATS as a favorite off an upset win.  So, we'll happily take the points with Xavier.  Moreover, since 1990, NIT Tourney teams off 3 upset wins have covered just 33%.  That bodes well for Xavier tonight.  As does the fact that the Musketeers have covered 77% since 1990 away from home vs. foes off back to back upset wins.  Take the underdog Musketeers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:00 pm, in The Basketball Classic, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over Southern Utah.  We played on the Thunderbirds on Saturday vs. Portland, and got the $$$ in a 77-66 blowout win.  But that game was at home, in Cedar City; tonight's game is on the road, in Fresno.  And Southern Utah is a soft 19-28 ATS away from home as an underdog of +8 (or less) points.  It's true that Fresno has failed to cover the spread in its two tournament games (vs. Eastern Washington and Youngstown).  But NCAA teams off back to back ATS losses have covered 59.3% in the post-season since 1990 when favored by more than 5 points vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with Fresno St.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Houston.  After the Spurs upset New Orleans on Saturday, and the Los Angeles Lakers were defeated by the same Pelicans team yesterday, the Spurs are in prime position to pass the Lakers for the #10 seed, and a spot in the Play-in round.  San Antonio currently sits just one game behind Los Angeles with eight to play.  But the Spurs have the far easier schedule, and also own the tie-breaker.  Of San Antonio's final eight games, three are against teams outside the Playoff picture (including this game vs. Houston tonight), while the Lakers have just one game against a non-contending team.  We'll lay the points with the Spurs, who are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games.  Meanwhile, Houston is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five vs. foes in the Playoff chase, and 2-17 SU and 5-14 ATS its last 19 vs. such foes.  Finally, the Spurs are 17-6-1 ATS on the division road, including 9-1 ATS off a win in their previous game, while Houston is 6-14 ATS at home vs. division rivals.  Lay the points with San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Sacramento.  The Heat are in a major swoon right now, as they've lost four straight games, and have failed to cover the spread in seven straight.  This downturn has brought Miami back to the rest of the Eastern conference pack, and there is currently a four-way tie in the Loss column, as each of Boston (47-28), Miami (47-28), Milwaukee (46-28) and Philadelphia (46-28) have 28 losses.  The good news for the Heat tonight is that they're relatively healthy, with just G Tyler Herro (20.8 ppg) questionable to play, due to a knee injury.  In contrast, Sacramento will be without De'Aaron Fox (23.2 ppg) and Domantas Sabonis (18.9 ppg).  Miami is 56-28 ATS off back to back losses, when playing an opponent off a SU win, including 10-0-1 ATS its last 11 when playing an opponent with a .420 (or worse) win percentage.  Take Miami minus the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Boston.  The Raptors will be at an advantage tonight at home vs. an unrested Boston squad which had to play on Sunday vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves.  Toronto is an awesome 32-9 ATS as a home favorite in the regular season vs. Atlantic division rivals, including a perfect 10-0 ATS vs. .572 (or better) foes.  Take Toronto.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over Florida.  Petr Mrazek (finally) played a solid game in goal for Toronto when he stopped 20 shots en route to a 3-2 victory over New Jersey on Wednesday.  And, per his coach, Sheldon Keefe, he had an exceptional practice on Friday.  Mrazek has never been one to lack confidence -- even when things were going poorly this season -- and will be back between the pipes tonight in this critical division game vs. Florida.  I expect him to once again play very well.  We'll take the Leafs, as Toronto is 47-24 (+9.1 net games on the money line) vs. winning teams, and 15-3 at home vs. explosive offensive teams that score 2.85 (or more) goals per game.  Take the Maple Leafs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Phoenix.  The Sixers play this game with revenge from a 5-point upset loss to the Suns last month.  We'll grab the points, as Philly is 48-29 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss.  Even better:  the Suns enter this evening's contest off back to back upset wins.  But .745 (or better) NBA teams off back to back upsets have covered just 20 of 60 home games when favored by 3+ points.  Take Philly + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins minus 1.5 goals over Detroit.  The Red Wings lost in overtime, 2-1, to Tampa Bay yesterday.  And that defeat extended Detroit's poor record as an underdog of +180 (or more) to 1-13 this season.  Detroit did cover the 1.5 goals on the puckline yesterday, but it's still just 3-11 in those 14 games on the puckline.  We'll go against Detroit in Pittsburgh today, as the Penguins will be looking to bounce back off back to back road losses to the Sabres and Rangers.  Detroit is a poor 7-35 on the road when the total is 6+ goals, while the Pens are 36-18 when playing with revenge.  Lay the 1.5 goals with Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Miami-Fla.  The #1-seeded Jayhawks come into today's game off back to back point spread losses to Creighton and Providence, while Miami has covered all 3 of its Tourney games.  The good news, though, for Bill Self's Jayhawks is that they're an awesome 46-4 SU and 36-13-1 ATS at home, or on neutral courts off back to back ATS losses, if they weren't favored by more than 12 points.  And if the game was a post-season game, then our 36-13-1 stat zooms to 10-1, 91% ATS.  That bodes well for Kansas this afternoon.   As does the fact that Kansas is 51-26 ATS when priced as a favorite of -3.5 to -13.5 against a foe off 3 ATS wins.  Take the Jayhawks minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Houston.  This is a rematch of a game played last night -- also here, in Portland.  The Rockets blew out the Blazers, 125-106, but we'll take the home dog to get the victory tonight.  Portland is a solid 44-15 ATS in non-division games when priced from -2.5 to +6, if it owned a W/L percentage less than .380.  And the Blazers are also 98-63 ATS as a home dog of < 5 points.  Meanwhile, Houston is a woeful 18-35 ATS as a road favorite vs. losing foes, if the Rockets won/covered as a road favorite in their previous game.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Miami.  Our preseason futures pick on the Nets to win the NBA title received some welcome news this week when the State of New York lifted the vaccine mandate for pro athletes and performers.  Now, G Kyrie Irving will be allowed to play at home, in Brooklyn, in the Playoffs.  There are still a few regular season games to be played, and the Nets are jockeying for playoff positioning as the season winds down.  The eighth-seeded Nets lost at home to the #1-seeded Heat, 113-107, earlier this month.  We'll take Kevin Durant and Co. to avenge that loss, as Brooklyn is 41-14 ATS on the road when playing with revenge against an opponent with a better record.  Take the Nets minus the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Milwaukee.  Memphis lost at Milwaukee by 12 points earlier this season.  We'll take the Grizzlies in this rematch, as they're a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when playing with revenge from a road loss.  And they're 27-6 ATS at home when playing with revenge, if they weren't favored by more than 2 points.  Take Memphis.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over Chicago.  The Bulls, Cavaliers and Raptors are locked into a tight battle in the Eastern Conference playoff race.  Chicago sits in 5th place, while Cleveland and Toronto are tied for 6th, just 1 game behind.  This race is important because the team which finishes with the worst record will be seeded 7th, and forced to win a game in the Play-in Round to make the playoffs.  We'll take the homestanding Cavaliers, as Chicago is 5-18-1 ATS its last 24 road games, including 0-9 ATS its last nine.  And Cleveland is 21-12-2 ATS its last 35 home games.  Take the Cavs.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats + the points over Houston.  I have all the respect for the job Kelvin Sampson has done at Houston, but I'm going to take the points with Villanova in this Elite 8 matchup.  The Wildcats are an impressive 35-17 straight-up, and 35-13-4 ATS in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 3.5 (or less) points, including 14-6-4 ATS as an underdog.  It's true that Houston has won and covered 6 straight games.  But NCAA Tourney favorites (or PK) off 5+ wins/covers are a soft 15-27 ATS.  Take Villanova + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, in the quarterfinals of The Basketball Classic tournament, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Portland.  Southern Utah is at home, and we'll lay the points with the T-Birds, and fade the Pilots, as Portland is a nasty 26-57-2 ATS as an underdog of 14 or less points (or PK) when playing a .640 (or better) opponent.  And, since 1990, Big Sky conference teams have covered 57% at home in the post-season vs. non-conference foes, while West Coast Conference teams have covered just 36% on the road in the post-season vs. non-conference foes.  Lay the points with Southern Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over New Orleans.  The Pelicans blew out San Antonio, 124-91, eight days ago in the Alamo City.  We'll take the Spurs to avenge that defeat, as San Antone is 39-18 ATS when playing with revenge from a 22-point (or worse) defeat.  Take the Spurs + the points.

At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning minus 1.5 goals over Detroit.  Tampa Bay has been installed as a big favorite this afternoon vs. the Red Wings, and that spells trouble for Detroit.  Indeed, the Wings are 1-12 this season as an underdog of +180 or more.  And they've only come within a single goal in two of those 13 games.  We'll lay the 1.5 goals with Tampa Bay, as the Lightning 58-26 (+21.3 net games) off a loss, including 7-1 off 3+ losses.  Take the Lightning minus 1.5 goals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the UCLA/North Carolina game.  This is a very much a contrarian play, as both of these teams have been playing high scoring games, of late.  UCLA went over the total in its previous game vs. St. Mary's, and has played six of its last eight over the total.  Meanwhile, North Carolina has gone over in 13 of 18.  And these recent results have triggered a very good 62% Totals system of mine which plays certain tournament games UNDER, based on certain data from the teams' previous games.  In this NCAA Tourney, the Tar Heels have topped 90 points in their first two tournament games -- each of which went over the total.  But off those two very high scoring games, we'll look for a much lower-scoring game against the defensive-minded Bruins.  UCLA is surrendering just 64.2 ppg this season and ranks 14th in the country (of 358 teams) in adjusted defensive efficiency.  In the Bruins' last 12 games as a favorite, UCLA has allowed just 59.5 ppg, and has not allowed any opponent to reach 70 points.  This game will be very low scoring.  Take the UNDER. 

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche minus 1.5 goals over Philadelphia.  Colorado lost 3-1 here, at home, to Vancouver, on Wednesday.  Still, with 18 games to go, the Avalanche have a league-leading 95 points.  So, they're in a great position heading into the final month.  Last night, the Flyers snapped their 13-game road losing streak with a 5-2 victory at St. Louis.  But we'll look for Philly to revert to its losing ways tonight.  The Flyers gave up seven goals when these two teams met in Philadelphia earlier this season.  And the Flyers are an awful 1-9 on the road when playing with revenge from a loss by 2+ goals.  Additionally, the Avalanche are 16-1 when playing their 3rd home game in a row, and 6-1 after not scoring 2+ goals in their previous game.  Take Colorado minus 1.5 goals.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over Dallas.  The T-Wolves lost a road game to Dallas just four days ago, 110-108.  And, then, it also lost its next game, here at home, to the Phoenix Suns.  We'll take Minnesota to avenge that defeat against Dallas, as it falls into a 126-69 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winning teams off back to back losses.  Even better:  Dallas has covered just 34 of 94 non-division road games, if it was off back to back wins, and its foes was off back to back losses.  And the Mavs are 11-32 ATS off a win, when playing a .333 (or better) revenge-minded foe.  Finally, the T-Wolves are 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven home games, and 7-1-1 ATS their last nine home games when playing with revenge.  Take the Timberwolves.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:39 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders over Duke.  The Red Raiders have the best adjusted defensive efficiency numbers in NCAA basketball this season, while Duke ranks #45 in that metric (of the 358 NCAA teams).  And, of the 16 remaining teams, the Blue Devils' defensive efficiency numbers rank #12, ahead of only Providence, Michigan, Purdue and Miami (yes, even lowly Saint Peter's ranks higher than Duke in this metric).  For the season, the Red Raiders have given up just 60.1 ppg, while Duke allows 67.2 ppg (for a differential of 7.05).  And top 2-seeded teams (like Duke), that give up more than 5 ppg on defense than their opponent, and are installed as an underdog (or PK), have covered just 21.4% in the NCAA Tournament over the past 32 years.  That doesn't bode well for Mike Krzyzewski's men tonight.  Nor does the fact that Duke tallied 85 points in their victory over Michigan State, as Duke's a woeful 15-35-2 ATS after scoring more than 78 points.  Finally, Texas Tech is 15-3 ATS its last 18 vs. .571 (or better) foes, while Duke is 1-7 ATS its last eight vs. .571 (or better) opposition.  Take Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Phoenix.  The Suns are 59-14, yet are an underdog tonight against the 43-30 Nuggets.  We'll take Denver tonight, as winning NBA teams have gone 276-214 ATS in the final 10 games of a season when favored against an opponent with a better record.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over San Jose.  The Sharks acquired goalie Kaapo Kahkonen from the Minnesota Wild at the trade deadline, on Monday.  And Kahkonen will make his Sharks debut tonight.  But in his last five starts, the Wild were 0-5, and he gave up 19 goals in those five games.  The Oilers come into this game off a 5-3 loss to Dallas.  But the Oilers are 26-13 (+13.6 net games on the moneyline) after allowing more than four goals in their previous game.  And they're 59-42 (+8.9 net games) vs. division foes.  San Jose does play with revenge from a 3-0 shutout loss to the Oilers last monthy.  Unfortunately, the Sharks are 22-43 (minus 16.9 net games) when playing with revenge, and 39-57 (minus 13.3 net games) vs. division rivals.  Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7 goals; 30 assists) has been upgraded to 'probable' to play tonight, after missing 11 games with a shoulder injury.  And his presence will especially be felt on special teams.  Take Edmonton.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies upset Brooklyn last night, as a home dog, while the Pacers were upset at home by Sacramento.  We'll fade Memphis as teams off upset home wins have covered just 46 of 126 games against foes off upset home losses, if our upsetter wasn't getting more than 10 points in its current game.  Take Indiana + the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Cleveland.  The Cavaliers are 10-16-1 ATS their last 27 on the road, and will face a revenge-minded Raptors squad which will look to avenge its 8-point loss to the Cavs earlier this month.  Toronto is 7-2 its last nine with playing with revenge, and also falls into a 152-97 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, the Raptors were blown out by 14 points on Monday, in Chicago.  But Toronto is 24-13 ATS off a loss by 12+ points.  Take Toronto minus the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Washington State.  The Cougars come into tonight's home game off back to back SU/ATS home wins over Long Beach St. and Northern Iowa.  BYU was favored by 5 against the Panthers, and that SU/ATS win extended BYU's ATS record as a single-digit home favorite (or PK) to 81-42-1 ATS, including 8-2 ATS in the post-season, and 57-23 ATS if its opponent's offensive avg. was less than 76.5 ppg.  Even better:  Washington St. is a poor 61-93-3 ATS as a single-digit road underdog (or PK).  Lay the points with BYU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves over the Phoenix Suns.  The T-Wolves are on a red-hot 10-2 SU/ATS run, and will look to move to within a half-game of the Denver Nuggets for the 6th seed (which would enable them to avoid the play-in round).  Minnesota's 6-0 SU/ATS its last six home games, and have won them by an average of 26.8 ppg.  And those six games include wins over Golden State (129-114) and Milwaukee (138-119).  The T-Wolves are 9-0-2 ATS at home when the Over/Under line is greater than 230 points, 7-0-1 ATS their last seven revenge meetings at home, and they also fall into a 95-36 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Timberwolves.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Golden State.  The Warriors are playing the 2nd game of the back-to-back, and will sit Draymond Green and Klay Thompson tonight.  Even worse:  Steph Curry was already sidelined with a left foot injury.  So, the Warriors will be a shell of themselves tonight against a Miami Heat team looking to bounce back from an upset loss at the hands of the 76ers.  Miami has failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games.  But the Heat are 50-25 ATS off 3 ATS losses.  And they play this game with revenge from a 7-point loss in San Francisco.  And that defeat has triggered a great 144-78 ATS revenge system of mine that goes against certain unrested foes.  Lay the points with Miami.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs minus 1.5 goals over New Jersey.  The Leafs have had 3 days off following their loss at Nashville, while the Devils played last night (and won) against the Rangers.  We'll take the home team on the puck line, as Toronto is 7-1 its last eight on the puck line vs. the Devils, and 7-0 straight-up its last seven vs. New Jersey -- mostly by blowout -- by scores of 6-1, 7-2, 4-2, 5-4, 7-4, 6-4, and 7-1.  Toronto is also 15-6 at home when the total is 6 goals or more, and 12-6 when playing with at least 3 days of rest.  And it's 14-1 at home off a road game.  Meanwhile, the Devils are a poor 26-48 (minus 9.7 net games) when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  And they're 21-40 on the road when the total was 6 (or more) goals.  Lay the 1.5 goals with the Maple Leafs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the NC Wilmington Seahawks + the points over Middle Tennessee St.  The Blue Raiders come into this game off back to back blowout wins over Boston U. (76-46) and Abilene Christian (85-69).  But those two blowouts have triggered a negative 11-47-2 ATS system of mine which goes against certain tourney teams off back to back blowouts.  Additionally, since 1990, underdogs are a solid 57% ATS in tourney title games if both teams enter off back to back SU/ATS wins.  We'll grab the points with NC Wilmington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Xavier.  The 20-13 Musketeers won SU/ATS vs. Florida, 72-56, on Sunday.  But Xavier has covered 2 in a row just once in their past 22 games, and are 15-18 ATS on the season.  That doesn't bode well against the 19-16 SU/21-13 ATS Commodores, who are 6-1 ATS their last seven tourney games, and 11-3 ATS their last 14, overall.  The Musketeers are a poor 23-45-2 ATS as a favorite of -2+ points, including 1-17-1 ATS their last 19 vs. foes with an ATS win percentage > .534.  Take Vanderbilt.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Red Wings over the Philadelphia Flyers.  There was a whirlwind of activity as the NHL trade deadline came and went last night and few teams were as busy in the selling market as the Flyers.  The volume of players headed elsewhere was not the big news as one name in particular stood out when Philly sent F Claude Giroux to the Florida Panthers (along with two other players).  Giroux had been with the Flyers since being drafted in 2008 -- a total of 14+ seasons (a record bested only by the great Bobby Clarke).  Even at age 34, Giroux was still one of the most productive players on the team, posting 42 points in 57 games.  So don't be surprised if a bad Flyers team is even worse the rest of the way.  The Red Wings come home tonight after a four-game road trip that didn't go so well (1-3) and that's key for this match-up as the hosts have been dominating this series (25-9 in the last 34 meetings).  The Flyers are a dismal 5-21 in their last 26 road games, including 0-12 their last 12.  And the favorite is 6-1 in the last seven meetings of these two.  Take the Red Wings.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over New York.  Last season, the Hawks knocked the Knicks out of the Playoffs.  This year, the Knicks have won all three meetings, thus far.  We'll take the Hawks, who were upset by New Orleans, 117-112, in their last game.  And triple-revenge-minded road favorites have covered 71% since 1990, if they were off an upset loss in their previous game.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Orlando.  The Warriors were upset at home in their two previous games by Boston and San Antonio.  But we'll take Golden State to bounce back on the road in Orlando.  The Warriors are 22-6 ATS off back to back upset defeats, including 12-0 ATS if their previous game was at home.  Meanwhile, the Magic are 0-13-2 ATS as a home dog vs. non-division foes off back to back losses.  Lay the points with Golden STate.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie