Sports Picks & Predictions

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards -4.5

The Key: Washington controlled the tempo in Game 1 and cruised to a six-point win on the road.  However, the Wizards have let the Pacers take the air out of the ball the past two games, and they lost both, including an ugly 85-63 defeat in Game 3.  That loss is all the motivation the Wizards will need here.  Look for them to bounce-back strong behind an up-tempo attack.  The Pacers are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall, 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games following a win, 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games when playing on 1 day of rest.  The Wizards are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 1 day of rest.  Lay the points.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Nationals +121

The Key: This is an excellent price to get behind Gio Gonzalez, who is the better starter in this matchup without a doubt regardless of what this season's numbers say.  It's starting to show too as Scott Kazmir is coming back down to earth with an ERA of 4.24 over his last three starts.  Gonzo has an ERA of 2.95 over his last three starts.  The Nats are an impressive 27-12 in Gonzo's road starts since the beginning of last season.  Washington has lost the first two games of the series, but it is still 9-3 in its last 12 games following a loss, 7-3 in its last 10 Game 3s of a series and 6-1 in its last 7 interleague road games versus a left-handed starter.  The Nationals are batting a phenomenal .289 versus lefty starters this season.  Take Washington.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Clippers -4.5

The Key: The Clippers won't go down without a fight.  Expect them to come storming back in Game 4 behind a much better defensive effort.  Oklahoma City has connected on better than 50% of its shots the past two games, and you can bet the Clippers will tighten the screws here.  Prior to these contests, LA had held the Thunder to 46.2% or worse in three straight contests.  The Clippers are 37-9 at home where they hold a +10.6-point differential.  They are also 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a loss.  The Thunder are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record.  Lay the points.

7* Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Year on Trail Blazers +1.5

The Key: Expect Portland to come storming back at home where it is 33-11 on the season and 9-2 in its last 11 versus San Antonio.  The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 3-10 in their last 13 in Portland.  You want to back underdogs that average 103.0 ppg or more if they trailed by 15 points or more at the half of their previous game.  Doing so has produced a 66-31 ATS mark since 1996.  You also want to back home underdogs that average 103.0 ppg or more if they have allowed 55 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games.  Doing so has produced a 56-28 ATS mark since 1996.  With the home crowd behind them, the Trail Blazers will get the job done Saturday night.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nets +1.5

The Key: The Nets blew a good chance to even the series in Game 2 by falling in love with the three-point shot in the second half, but this veteran squad isn't about to hang its head.  The Nets have been awesome in their own building where they are 25-5 since Dec. 27.  They are also 2-0 at home versus Miami this season.  The Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points, and the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  You also want to back home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are off two or more consecutive road losses, provided that have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team.  Doing so has produced a 65-32 ATS mark since 1996.  Bet the Nets.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Dodgers -145

The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with Greinke, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 22 consecutive starts.  His clubs are 40-14 all-time in his starts as a home favorite of -125 to -175.  The Dodgers are 15-3 in his last 18 home starts, 14-2 in his last 16 starts following a team loss in their previous game, 7-0 in his last 7 starts in the third game of a series and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus a team with a winning record.  San Francisco's Cain has a 5.25 ERA on the road this season.  The Giants are 1-9 in his last 10 starts, 1-5 in his last 6 road starts and 1-7 in his last 8 division starts.  The Giants are 0-4 in Cain's last 4 starts versus the Dodgers and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus the Dodgers.  Greinke's clubs are 3-0 all-time in his starts versus the Giants.  Take LA.

6* MLB Bailout Blowout on A's -114

The Key: The Athletics are 92-44 in their last 136 interleague home games and 70-34 in their last 104 games as a home favorite.  They are 17-3 since 1997 in home games versus NL clubs that allow 3.8 runs per game of less.  The Nationals are 18-37 in their last 55 interleague road games versus a team with a winning record and 4-21 in their last 25 games as a road underdog of +100 to +125.  Fister is making his first start of the season, and I expect him to show some rust.  His clubs are 5-14 in his last 19 road starts when the line is +125 to -125.  The A's saw him twice last season and hit him hard, touching him for 10 runs in 11 innings.  Milone is off to a rough start for Oakland, but only one of his starts have come at home.  Only three Nationals have seen him, so their lack of familiarity with his stuff plays greatly in our favor.  The Athletics are 6-1 in Milone's last seven interleague starts.  You want to back teams when the money line is +100 to -150 that are starting a pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts as long as the bullpen has an ERA under 3.00 over the last 10 games.  Doing so has produced a 69-26 mark since 1997.  Take the A's.

6* MLB Bailout Blowout on Mariners -125

The Key: The Mariners have won 8 of 10 while the Royals have dropped 5 of 7.  The Mariners are also 6-1 in their last seven home games versus the Royals.  The Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-5 in their last five games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Mariners are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  I'm a big believer in Iwakuma.  The Mariners are 3-0 in his last three starts and 17-7 in his last 24 home starts.  He figures to get plenty of run support tonight as the M's have won 9 of 13 against left-handed starters this season while batting .250 and averaging 4.6 runs.  The Royals have been doing some winning with Duffy on the mound, but he puts a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has an ERA above 4.00 because he often doesn't go very deep in games.  The Royals are 5-13 in his last 18 starts versus teams with a winning record.  Take Seattle.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Trail Blazers +7

The Key: You want to back road teams like Portland that average 103.0 ppg or more following a game where they trailed by 15 points or more at the half.  Doing so has produced an 80-34 ATS mark since 1996.  You also want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 103.0 ppg or more following a game where they trailed by 15 points or more at the half.  Doing so has produced a 40-15 ATS mark since 1996.  If the underdog in the aforementioned situation is also playing on the road, this system explodes to 31-9 ATS.  It is also worth noting that the Trail Blazers are 13-2 ATS in road games after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons.  They have bounced back to win by an average score of 99.1 to 98.8 in this spot.  History shows that teams who get off to a bad start in their previous game tend to bounce back strong.  Take the points.

6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Nets +8

The Key: The Nets were crushed in Game 1, but they have been exceptional in bounce-back spots this season.  In fact, they are 13-3 ATS on the season following a loss of 15 points or more and have won by an average score of 99.4 to 95.4 in this spot.  Brooklyn is also 10-2 ATS this season following a road defeat of 10 points or more and has won by an average score of 102.7 to 96.6 in this spot.  It is also worth noting that the Nets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games versus teams that have a home winning percentage greater than .600 while the Heat are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400.  Brooklyn won all four regular-season meetings, and I expect it to show up in Game 2.  Take the points.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -5.5

The Key: Look for the Thunder to bounce back strong in Game 2.  The Clippers are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 10 points while the Thunder are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Oklahoma City is also 17-7 ATS the last two seasons in home games when seeking revenge for an upset loss to an opponent.  It has won these contests by an average score of 108.6 to 97.7.  In addition, the Thunder are 17-7 ATS the last two seasons in home games when seeking revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent.  They have won these contests by an average score of 106.0 to 94.8.  Lastly, OKC is 9-1 ATS this season versus teams like the Clippers that outscore the opposition by 6.0 ppg or more.  It has defeated these teams by an average score of 108.1 to 101.0.  Lay the points.

7* MLB Interleague Total of the Month on Rockies/Rangers Under 9.5

The Key: Plays "under" on all teams when the total is 8.5 to 10 in Wednesday interleague games has produced a 98-46 mark the last five seasons.  Texas' Colby Lewis is 15-1 "under" all-time in Wednesday starts, and we have seen only 6.7 total runs scored on average in these outings.  Lewis has been really good lately with a 3.37 ERA over his last three starts.  Jorge De La Rosa has returned to form following a slow start and has an ERA of 2.50 over his last three starts.  With as good as these pitchers are going, I feel this line is too high.  The "under" is 5-0 in De La Rosa's last five road starts when the total is 9.0-10.5.  De La Rosa is also 17-3 "under" all-time in road games following two or more consecutive wins.  We have seen just 6.0 total runs scored on average in these outings.  The Rockies haven't had the same scoring punch on the road where they are averaging just 4.0 runs per game.  The Rangers are averaging only 4.1 runs per game at home.  Take the Under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers -4.5

The Key: The Pacers lost Game 1, but they are still 37-9 this season at home where they are averaging 98.2 points and holding opponents to an average of 88.8.  They are also still 12-1 in their 13 home games versus the Wizards, and the 12 wins have come by an average of 12.9 points.  The Pacers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss and 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss against the spread.  Washington has been playing well on the road in these playoffs, but it is on an 11-26 ATS slide following two or more consecutive road wins.  Lay the points.

6* Game 1 Bailout on Trail Blazers +6.5

The Key: The Spurs are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, and they'll have a difficult time covering this number against a Portland squad that has given them fits.  The Trail Blazers have won or lost by three points or less in six of the last seven meetings.  San Antonio has won by more than six points only once in its last nine games.  The Blazers have lost by more than six points only once in their last 11 games.  The Spurs won the most recent meeting 103-90 in San Antonio, but the Blazers are 7-0 ATS this season in road games when seeking revenge for a road loss to an opponent.  They have won by an average score of 115.3 to 105.1 in this situation.  Take the points.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Rays -143

The Key: Baltimore's Chris Tillman is extremely fortunate to be 3-0 on the road considering the 5.21 ERA he's compiled away from home.  He's currently in poor form with an ERA of 7.63 over his last three starts.  He's struggled against the Rays, going 1-4 in his last five starts against them.  He has a 4.90 ERA in 11 career starts against them.  Tampa Bay's Archer is a different pitcher at home where he has a 2.13 ERA on the season.  The Rays are 7-0 in his last seven home starts, 6-0 in his last six home starts versus teams with a winning record, 5-0 in his last five starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 5-0 in his last five starts overall versus teams with a winning record.  Archer was hit hard in a loss in Baltimore last month and will be very focused here as a result.  The Rays are 2-0 in his two home starts versus the Orioles.  The Orioles are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings, including 0-4 in the last four in Tampa Bay.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Game 1 *CA$H COW* on Heat -7

The Key: The Heat will be the much fresher team tonight as they haven't taken the floor since Apr. 28.  The Nets are coming off a tough seven-game series and will be playing their second road game in three days here.  Brooklyn actually swept Miami during the regular season so the Heat will be looking to send a message from the tip.  You want to take home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge when their opponent checks in off an upset victory over a division rival.  Doing so has produced a 44-18 ATS mark since 1996.  Teams fitting this situation have won by 11.5 points on average.  Lay the points.

6* MLB "Total" Annihilator on Royals/Padres Under 6.5

The Key: San Diego has been a terrific "Under" investment.  It is on a 41-15-4 "Under" run in its last 60 games.  The Padres are 15-4 "Under" this season when the total is 7.0 or less.  Both teams are really struggling at the plate, and that sets up an extraordinary "Under" system.  You want to play the "Under" on any team (KC) that has had 7 hits or less in 4 consecutive games when they are matched up against a team that has had less than 10 hits in 5 straight games.  Doing so has produced a 40-13 mark the last 5 seasons.  The Padres are 20-5-1 "Under" in their last 26 games versus starters with a WHIP of less than 1.150.  They'll have a tough time getting to Ventura, who has a 1.50 ERA and a WHIP of 1.067.  His ERA is just 0.60 on the road, and the Royals have finished "Under" the total in 4 of his 5 starts this season.  Stults has been good at home where he has a 3.27 ERA, and the Padres are 5-1 "Under" in his 6 interleague starts.  Take the Under.

6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Pacers -4

The Key: The Pacers got a huge wake-up call in their first-round series with Atlanta.  It was an up-hill battle after losing Game 1 of that series, and they'll be extremely focused tonight to make sure they get off to a better start in the semifinal round.  Indiana actually matches up better with Washington because the Wizards rely more on the interior play of Marcin Gortat and Nene.  Going inside plays right into the hands of an Indiana squad that is big and physical defensively in the paint.  If Washington tries to go small and be more perimeter-oriented, the Pacers got a great crash course on how to defend that in the first round.  ''I think Teague helped us prepare for John Wall,'' coach Frank Vogel said. "And Korver helped us prepare for Bradley Beal."  The Pacers are 12-0 in their last 12 home games versus the Wizards with these victories coming by an average of 12.9 points.  Lay the points.

6* MLB "Total" Annihilator on Brewers/Reds Under 7.5

The Key: Expect a low-scoring game in Cincinnati with a couple hot starters gripping the pill.  Lohse is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA that is down to 2.33 over his last three starts.  Simon is 4-1 with a 1.60 ERA.  Simon is 7-0 "Under" in his last seven starts, and we haven't seen more than seven total runs scored in any of these games.  Lohse has a 2.89 ERA in 15 starts versus Cincinnati, and he has held the Reds to one earned run or none in eight of his last 11 starts against them.  The "Under" is 7-0 in his last seven starts versus the Reds, and we haven't seen more than seven total runs scored in these games. Take the Under.

7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Mavs/Spurs Under 198.5

The Key: With the stakes raised and a place in the Western Conference Semis on the line, I expect to see these teams play a little tight.  Every single possession means a little bit more in a Game 7, and the pace should slow as a result.  Neither team wants to do the other any favors by taking a bad shot early in the shot clock or turning the ball over.  Plus, we should see outstanding effort on the defensive end from both teams.  When the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, you want to play the "Under" on road teams that average 103.0 ppg or more if they are matched up against an opponent that has allowed 100 points or more in two straight games.  Doing so has produced a 33-9 mark the last five seasons.  We've seen an average of only 188.5 total points scored in this situation.  Take the Under.

7* NBA Playoffs "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Thunder Under 186

The Key: Four of the six games played in this series have finished at or under 186 total points in regulation, and I expect this trend to continue.  We have seen an average of 180.3 total points scored in regulation in this series and only 174.5 in regulation over the last four games so we are getting an excellent number.  We only saw 188 total points scored in Game 6 despite OKC hitting 49.3% from the field and going 23 of 25 from the free throw line.  Prior to that game, Memphis had held the Thunder below 40% shooting in four straight games.  I expect another strong defensive effort from the Grizzlies here.  The Thunder are at their best when they are getting out in transition, but Memphis has done an excellent job of controlling the tempo.  Even in Game 6, the Thunder only attempted 75 shots - eight less than their season average.  When the total is between 180.0-189.5 points, you want to play the "Under" on all teams like the Thunder who are off a win of 20 points or more, provided they average 99.0 ppg or more.  Doing so has produced a 109-63 mark since 1996.  We have seen just 182.4 total points scored on average in this situation.  It is also worth noting that Memphis is 11-2 "Under" the last three seasons following a double-digit loss at home.  We have seen only 179.3 total points scored in this spot.  Take the Under.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Orioles -115

The Key: Minnesota can't be trusted with Correia on the mound.  He has a 7.33 ERA on the season that dips to 9.60 at home.  The Twins are 4-18 in his last 22 starts, 1-8 in his last nine home starts, 1-10 in his last 11 starts versus winning clubs, 0-5 in his last five home starts versus winning clubs, 0-6 in his last six starts in the second game of a series and 0-4 in his last four starts versus AL East foes.  Correia also has a 6.00 ERA in two career starts versus Baltimore.  Chen has settled in following a pair of sub-par outings to start the season.  He has an ERA of 2.95 over his last three starts, and the Orioles are 4-0 in his last four starts.  They are 4-0 in his last four starts in the second game of a series and 2-0 in his starts against the Twins.  He has a 2.25 ERA in both career starts versus the Twins and both were in Minnesota.  It is also worth noting that the Orioles are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite and 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  You want to fade AL home teams that are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.600 to 1.700 and an ERA of 7.00 or higher over his last three starts.  Doing so has produced a 36-15 mark the last five seasons.  Take Baltimore.
 

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Rockies -125

The Key: The Rockies have the edge on the mound with De La Rosa.  They are 39-12 in his last 51 home starts and 43-11 in his last 54 starts as a favorite.  Colorado is 8-0 the last two seasons in his home starts versus clubs with winning records, winning these games by an average of 3.4 runs.  It is also 7-0 the last two seasons in his home starts when the money line is +125 to -125, winning these contests by an average of 3.3 runs.  De La Rosa is nearly unbeatable at home as he's learned how to pitch at flighty Coors.  Plus, the Mets have really struggled against southpaw starters and are just 5-15 against them dating back to last season.  Wheeler has been good for New York overall, but he has a 4.77 ERA on the road and has never pitched inside hitter-friendly Coors Field.  The Mets are 1-4 in Wheeler's last five starts versus teams with a winning record and 1-5 in his last six starts as an underdog.  The Rockies are batting .346 and averaging 7.4 runs per game at home.  The Mets are hitting a decent .255 on the road and averaging 5.2 runs per game, but they are batting only .208 over their last 12 games and are batting just .216 against lefty starters.  Take Colorado.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Nets -4.5

The Key: The Nets have lost the last two games of this series and are now facing elimination, but I expect this veteran team to rise to the occasion tonight to extend the series.  The Nets were fortunate to be in Game 5 as they got off to a terrible start and trailed by 18 at the half.  They have learned from similar performances as they are 8-1 ATS this season after trailing in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half.  They have won these contests by an average of 9.8 points.  The Nets are also 9-1 ATS this season in home games when playing with double revenge and have won these contests by an average of 8.0 points.  The Raptors are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Take Brooklyn.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Warriors +1.5

The Key: Golden State has been a terrific investment in bounce-back spots.  The Warriors are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.  They are also 8-1 ATS this season following a double-digit defeat and have won these contests by an average score of 106.4 to 90.5.  In addition, the Warriors are 9-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season the last two seasons versus teams that carry a winning percentage of 60% to 70%.  They have won these games by an average score of 104.0 to 93.2.  The Warriors have won 16 of their last 19 home games against the Clippers.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Clippers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Golden State.  Take the Warriors.

7* NL Game of the Week on Braves -125

The Key: Atlanta has dropped the first two games of the series, but it hasn't been swept at Miami since 2006.  The Marlins are 18-45 in their last 63 Game 3s of a series.  The Braves are 40-17 in the last 57 meetings, including 22-8 in their last 30 in Miami.  Ervin Santana has been brilliant since moving to the NL.  The Braves are 4-0 in his starts, and he's compiled an ERA of only 1.95.  This number is down to 1.38 in a pair of road starts.  His clubs are 11-1 the last two season in his starts as a favorite of -125 to -175.  Henderson Alvarez has pitched well for the Marlins, but they've lost four of his five starts while he's posted an ERA (2.73) that's nearly a run higher than Santana's.  His clubs are 1-11 over the last three seasons in his home starts versus division opponents.  The Marlins are 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus the NL East and 1-8 in his last 9 starts versus winning clubs.  Take Atlanta.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockets -5

The Key: Staring elimination in the face, Houston will play with a sense of desperation to extend the series.  Prior to these playoffs, the Rockets had won three straight at home over the Trail Blazers by an average of 11.0 points.  I expect them to dig down deep here, and it starts with James Harden, who has had a rough series.  If Harden had been himself, the Rockets might be up 3-1.  I expect him to be the best player on the floor tonight.  The Trail Blazers are a poor 2-7 ATS when playing on two days' rest.  They are also just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff games.  You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that give up 99.0 ppg or more when they are matched up against a team that has allowed 100 points or more in four straight games.  Doing so has produced an 85-50 ATS mark the last five seasons.  Teams fitting into this system have lost by an average of 8.4 points.  Lay the number.

6* MLB "Total" Annihilator on Astros/Nationals Under 8.5

The Key: Zimmermann has been really good in four of five starts this season and has a 2.70 ERA over his last three.  He's given up only one run on seven hits in his last two starts versus Houston spanning 13 innings while striking out 14 and walking none.  Oberholtzer will be focused following a rare bad outing.  Prior to his last start, he had posted an ERA of 2.87 over his previous eight starts.  He has received an average of only 1.78 runs of support over his last nine starts.  I expect Oberholtzer to have success against a Washington club that has never faced him.  The "Under" is 3-0-1 in the Nationals' last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 3-0-2 in their last 5 games following a win, 3-0-1 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 6-0-1 in their last 7 interleague road games versus a team with a losing record.  The "Under" is 4-0 in Oberholtzer's last 4 starts on 5 days of rest and 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The "Under" is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these clubs.  Take the Under.

7* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Clippers -5.5

The Key: Look for the Clippers to put the distractions aside and bounce-back strong tonight.  You want to back home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are seeking revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent if that opponent is off a win of 20 points or more over a division rival.  Doing so has produced a 43-15 ATS mark since 1996.  Teams fitting this system have been favored by 5.3 points on average but have won by an average of 9.0 points.  The Clippers are 14-3 ATS this season when seeking revenge for an upset loss to an opponent, and they have won by an average score of 112.9 to 99.9 in this situation.  The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points while the Warriors are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 10 points.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Warriors are 1-4 ATS in the last five road meetings.  Lay the points.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Royals -137

The Key: The Royals will be happy to take the field at home, where they are 6-3, following a seven-game road trip.  They are 5-0 in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days.  They Royals are also 12-2 in their last 14 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Vargas has been terrific (1.54 ERA through 5 starts), especially at home where he's 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA.  Toronto's McGowan has a 6.88 ERA through four starts.  The Blue Jays are 1-5 in McGowan's last six starts, 9-23 in his last 32 road starts and 5-14 in his last 19 starts as an underdog.  The Jays are 12-30 all-time in his night starts.  You want to fade road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 to 4.50 if they are batting .265 or worse as a team and are facing an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or lower.  Doing so has produced a 125-39 mark the last five seasons.  Take Kansas City.

6* NBA Playoffs "Total" Annihilator on Wizards/Bulls Under 184

The Key: Staring elimination in the face, the Bulls will put forth the kind of defensive effort that made them arguably the most-feared defensive team in the NBA during the regular season.  It also plays in our favor that Chicago is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA.  Each game of the series has gone over the total so far, and we are catching a good number in Chicago as a result.  You want to take the "Under" on any team that is off three or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against a team that is off four or more consecutive overs.  Doing so has produced a 69-33 mark the last five seasons.  In addition, Chicago is 18-7 "Under" this season in home games when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5.  We have seen just 179.5 total points scored on average in these games.  The Bulls are 10-1 "Under" in home games after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of their last eight games under coach Thibodeau.  We have seen just 175.3 total points scored on average in these games.  Take the Under.

6* MLB Situational Grand Slam on Giants -158

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Padres, who are playing their eighth straight on the road after making the long cross-country trip from Washington D.C.  The Giants will be the more energized team as they've been able to rest their heads on their own pillows since returning from Colorado April 23.  The Giants bring momentum into this series following a three-game sweep of Cleveland.  And, they'll be hungry after losing the season's first series with San Diego.  The Padres defeated Washington 4-2 yesterday, but they are 3-17 in road games following a win of 2 runs or less over the last two seasons.  San Diego's Tyson Ross hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where he's 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in two starts this season.  His clubs are 0-2 in his two starts in San Francisco.  The Padres are 4-10 in Ross' last 14 starts, including 1-6 in his last seven on the road.  Madison Bumgarner is always tough against the division, as evidenced by the Giants' 37-18 record in his last 55 starts versus the NL West.  The Giants are 5-0 in his last five starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 16-4 in his last 20 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200.  Most importantly, the Giants are 7-0 in Bumgarner's last seven home starts versus the Padres. With Ross never winning in San Francisco, and Bumgarner having not lost there versus the Padres since 2009, we have a 100% perfect 9-0 angle in our favor. Take San Francisco.

7* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Spurs/Mavericks Under 203.5

The Key: After allowing Dallas to shoot an average of 50.1% from the field in back-to-back defeats, the Spurs will pick up the intensity on the defensive end.  With them doing so, the "Under" becomes a strong play tonight.  When the total is 200.0 to 209.5, you want to take the "Under" on all teams playing with double revenge if they have a winning record and are playing a team with a winning record.  Doing so has produced a 97-60 mark the last five seasons.  In addition, you want to take the "Under" when the line is 200.0 or higher on teams that are seeking revenge for an upset loss if the matchup features teams with winning percentages of 60% to 75%.  Doing so has produced a 33-11 mark the last five seasons.  These systems speak to the way teams tighten the screws defensively in revenge spots.  Take the Under.

6* Sunday Night Baseball "Total" Annihilator on Angels/Yankees Under 8.0

The Key: I like the "Under" tonight in a matchup of pitchers in good form.  LAs Garrett Richards has a 2.52 ERA through four starts, and this number shrinks to 1.00 in a pair of road starts.  He held the Yankees to just two runs in his most recent start in Yankee Stadium last August.  The Yanks are averaging just 3.3 runs per game against right-handed starters this season and have hit only 10 home runs against righty starters.  They don't figure to take Richards deep as he hasn't given up a homer in his last five starts.  The "Under" is 8-2 in Richards' last 10 road starts and 7-0 in his last seven road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  NYs Masahiro Tanaka has had his way with the opposition through his first four major-league starts.  He has a 2.15 ERA on the season and a 1.81 ERA in a pair of home starts.  He has 35 Ks and only two walks, and I expect to see another big strikeout number tonight against an Angels' club that averages over 8 Ks per game.  Tanaka has nasty stuff, and even good hitting teams will struggle against him until they become more familiar with him.  Take the Under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Raptors/Nets Under 192

The Key: These teams combined for 200 points in Game 3, but the pace was very slow.  Both teams attempted just 67 shots.  Despite the slow pace, the game finished over the total because both teams shot a high percentage from the field.  Expect another slow grind it out game, and expect the shooting to suffer as the defenses pick up the intensity.  You want to take the "Under" on all teams when the total is 190.0 to 199.5 in the fourth game of a first round playoff series.  That's because doing so has produced a 44-14 (76%) mark since 1996.  Take the Under.
 

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Warriors +2

The Key: The Warriors are showing a lot of value in the home underdog role.  They have been home dogs just three times this season and are 2-0-1 ATS in those games.  Plus, they are 15-3 in their last 18 at home versus the Clippers, including 5-1 in their last six.  Golden State lost Game 3 by two points, but it has responded well following defeats.  The Warriors are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  They are 29-13 ATS under Mark Jackson following a loss of six points or less and 18-7 ATS under his watch following a loss of three points or fewer.  We also can't ignore the fact the Warriors are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 first-round playoff games.  The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight first-round playoff contests.  Take Golden State.

7* NBA Playoffs First Round Game of the Year on Thunder -3

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses to the Grizzlies and a 2-1 series deficit, I expect the Thunder to respond in a big way.  Oklahoma City is 30-13 ATS off a loss of three points or less under coach Brooks and has won by an average of 5.3 points in these contests.  It is 14-3 ATS off a defeat of three points or less the last three seasons, winning these contests by an average of 11.4 points.  The Thunder are also 50-32 ATS when playing with double revenge under Brooks and 28-12 ATS off an upset loss on the road.  The Thunder have settled for too many three-point shots the past two games.  They are one of the top free throw shooting teams in the league, and I expect them to live at the line in this one as they put an emphasis on driving the ball to the basket.  Lay the points.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tigers -146

The Key: The Tigers have the edge on the mound with Sanchez, whose ERA (3.54) is nearly three runs lower than Hughes' ERA (6.43).  Plus, Sanchez's ERA versus the Twins (2.57) is over two runs lower than Hughes' ERA versus the Tigers (4.87).  The Tigers are 7-0 in Sanchez's last seven road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 4-0 in his last four starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  Hughes is 0-4 in his last four starts versus the Tigers.  In addition, the Twins are 16-36 in their last 52 home games and 16-51 in their last 67 home games versus a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 19-47 the last three seasons in home games versus AL starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.00 or lower and 15-46 during this span versus starters who give up an average of 0.5 home runs or less per game.  You want to fade AL home teams that allow 5.2 runs per game or more after a game where they allowed 10 runs or more as doing so has produced a 33-9 mark the last five seasons.  Tigers are 21-8 in the last 29 meetings in Minnesota.  Take the Tigers.

6* NBA "Total" Bailout on Rockets/Trail Blazers Under 216.0

The Key: You want to take the "Under" on any team that is off two or more consecutive overs and is playing a team off five or more consecutive overs.  Doing so has produced a 42-14 mark the last three seasons.  You also want to play the "Under" on all teams in the third game of a playoff series if the total line is 200.0 or greater.  Doing so has produced a 66-28 mark since 1996.  If the game takes place in the first round of the playoffs, this system explodes to 42-12.  When the total is 200.0 or higher, you want to take the "Under" on all teams like Houston that are seeking revenge for an upset loss, provided both teams have winning percentages of 60%-75%.  Doing so has produced a 33-9 mark the last five seasons.  The last nine meetings between these teams have finished over the number.  However, Game 1 would have finished under had it not gone to OT.  Plus, these teams have finished over this number just two times in Portland since 2000.  Take the Under.

7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Wizards Under 183.5

The Key: The Bulls have found out that they don't have the offensive firepower to outscore Washington.  They know the only way they can get back in the series is to ramp it up on the defensive end.  I'm confident they'll do just that tonight.  Chicago is 13-3 "Under" when seeking revenge for two straight losses where its opponent scored 100 points or more under coach Thibodeau.  You want to play the "Under" on road teams when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5 points if they are off two or more consecutive upset losses, provided they have a winning record and are playing another winning team.  Doing so has produced a 39-15 mark since 1996.  We have seen an average total line of 185.2 for these contests but an average total score of just 180.3.  Chicago is 31-17 "Under" when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5 points this season.  It is also 21-10 "Under" after two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  Washington is 9-1 "Under" as a home favorite of 3.0 points or less over the last two seasons while Chicago is 18-7 "Under" as a road underdog of 3.0 points or less under coach Thibodeau.  The "Under" is 17-5-1 in the last 23 meetings between these teams in Washington.  Take the Under.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Mets -105

The Key: The Mets are showing some nice value at this price against a Miami club that is 1-8 on the road.  Looking back, the Marlins are 27-72 in their last 99 road games.  The Mets bring a ton of momentum into this series after taking three of four from St. Louis.  They are 7-3 in their last 10, including 4-1 in their last five.  New York scheduled starter Zack Wheeler has looked strong in his last two starts (both NY wins), and I expect him to keep right on dealing versus a Miami club that has struggled offensively on the road (2.4 runs per game).  The Marlins are just 4-11 in Henderson Alvarez's last 15 starts, 0-4 in his last four division starts and 0-5 in his last five road starts versus a team with a winning record.  The Marlins are just 6-14 in their last 20 meetings in New York.  Take the Mets.

6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Warriors +2

The Key: The Warriors did what they set out to accomplish in L.A. (steal home-court advantage) so they won't be down on themselves following an ugly Game 2 loss.  All that loss does is provide added motivation for the home team.  The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss, 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  It is also worth noting that the Warriors are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 first round playoff games while the Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven.  When the line is +3 to -3, you want to fade road teams that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a winning team.  Doing so has produced a 35-6 mark the last five seasons, a 22-2 mark the last three seasons and a perfect 4-0 mark this season.  Golden State has won five straight at home against the Clippers by an average of 11.2 points.  Take the Warriors.

7* NBA Western Conference Playoffs Total of the Year on Clippers/Warriors Under 215.5

The Key: Taking the Under on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 in the 3rd game of a playoff series has produced a 66-28 mark since 1996.  If it is the first round of the playoffs, this system explodes to 40-12.  In addition, taking the Under on all teams when the total is 200 or higher that are off a blowout win of 15 points or more and up against a team off a blowout loss of 15 points or more has produced a 74-38 mark the last five seasons.  It is also worth noting that taking the Under on all teams when the total is 210 or higher that are seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent and are off a road loss of 20 points or more has produced an 80-43 mark since 1996.  We'll follow these time-tested systems to another big totals winner.  Take the Under.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Blue Jays -134

The Key: I like the Blue Jays at home with Drew Hutchison on the hill.  He's been lights out in three of four starts this season.  One of those came against Baltimore, and he has a 1.00 ERA in three starts versus the Orioles.  He has tossed 13 consecutive scoreless innings against the O's.  Baltimore defeated the Jays with Bud Norris on the mound Apr. 12, but I don't expect an encore performance on the road where he is 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA this season.  Norris is 0-4 with a 5.28 ERA over his last six outings, losing all three on the road behind a 6.59 ERA while giving up a .304 average to opposing batters.  The Orioles are 14-41 in the last 55 meetings in Toronto.  Take the Jays.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockets -6

The Key: Houston nearly won Game 1 despite shooting 41% from the field, 22.9% from three and 65% from the free throw line.  James Harden had a very uncharacteristic game as he was just 8 of 28 from the floor.  Houston settled for too many shots.  It will take the ball more aggressively to the basket tonight while working for better shots.  I'm also confident it will do a better job on LaMarcus Aldridge.  Prior to the Game 1 loss, Houston had won three straight at home in the series by an average of 11.0 points.  It has won five of the last seven meetings overall with the wins coming by an average of 13.2 points.  Portland covered the number in Game 1, but it is still only 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine Conference Quarterfinal games.  It is also 1-7 ATS in its last eight games when playing on two days' rest.  The Rockets are 20-5 ATS under coach McHale in home games after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five.  They have won by an average score of 110.2 to 97.1 in this spot.  Lay the points.

6* MLB *Afternoon Delight* on A's -156

The Key: I missed with the A’s yesterday as they blew the game with two outs in the ninth, but I won't hesitate to come right back with them this afternoon as they are still 37-16 in their last 53 games following a loss and 18-6 the last three seasons when seeking revenge for two straight home losses to an opponent.  Plus, they have the edge on the mound with Gray.  The Athletics are 8-2 in Gray's last 10 starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus American League West foes.  He has a 1.80 ERA on the season and should have no trouble shutting down a Texas team that isn't familiar with him at all.  Perez has been great early for Texas, but he was rocked in his only road start of the season and has an ERA of 5.79 against Oakland.  He's lost three of his last four starts against the A's.  You want to fade Wednesday underdogs of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start.  Doing so has produced a 120-44 mark the last five seasons.  Take the A's.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's -157

The Key: The A's haven't lost consecutive games all season, going 5-0 in their last five following a defeat.  Looking back further, they are 37-15 in their last 52 games following a loss.  The A's are 218-96 in their last 314 games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 102-46 in their last 148 games as a favorite overall and 69-30 in their last 99 games as a home favorite.  Oakland is 6-1 in Milone's last seven starts as a favorite and 6-1 in his last seven starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Rangers are without Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar and Geovany Soto, and Shin-Soo Choo could miss this game as well.  The banged-up Rangers are just 1-7 in their last eight games as an underdog.  Take the A's.

7* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Hawks Under 187.5

The Key: I'm taking the Under tonight because I'm confident the Pacers will show up defensively after giving up 101 points in Game 1.  Indiana is 24-9 Under this season when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5, including 14-4 Under at home in this set.  The Pacers are 11-2 this season in home games when the total is between 185.0 and 189.5, and we have seen just 176.1 total points scored on average in these contests.  You also want to play the Under on any team (Atlanta in this case) that is off two or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against a team that is off five or more consecutive overs.  Doing so has produced a 39-14 mark the last three seasons.  Indiana isn't in good form offensively (which plays right into our hands), but it is more than capable of shutting down Atlanta on the defensive end.  I expect a ferocious defensive effort from the Pacers in this highly motivated spot.  Take the Under.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Clippers -7.5

The Key: The Clippers have been an outstanding investment in bounce-back spots at 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss.  Plus, they are 12-2 ATS this season following an upset loss and have won by an average of 11.2 points in these games.  They are also 13-3 ATS this season when seeking revenge for an upset loss and have won these contests by an average of 11.3 points.  The home team is still 7-1 in the last 8 meetings with the 7 wins coming by an average of 14.14 points.  Lay the number.

 

 

 

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Clippers/Warriors Under 212.5

The Key: There is some overwhelming history supporting this play on the UNDER.  First off, You want to play the UNDER on any team that has gone over the total in 3 consecutive games or more when they are matched up against an opponent that has gone over in 4 or more consecutive games.  Doing so has produced a 67-29 mark the last five seasons.  If the total is set at 200 or higher, the above system tightens up to 39-16.  In addition, you want to take the UNDER on any team when the total is 200 or higher that is seeking revenge for an upset defeat if the matchup features teams with winning percentages of 60% to 75%.  Doing so has produced a 33-7 mark the last five seasons.  Lastly, playing the UNDER on home teams when the total is 210 or higher that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games, provided they have a winning record and are playing a winning team, has produced a 45-18 mark the last five seasons.  These teams combined for 214 points in Game 1, but we've seen 209 total points or less in six of their seven previous meetings.  Take the Under.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's +1.5 (-150)

The Key: The A's are showing some nice value catching 1.5 runs at this price. Texas has lost four of six road games this season, and it is 4-12 in its last 16 series openers dating back to last season.  The Rangers haven't been on the road since April 9, and they are 0-4 in their last four games versus Oakland.  Darvish has been brilliant thus far.  The Rangers have won each of his three starts, but the last two wins came by a single run.  Darvish has had a rough go of it versus Oakland.  The Rangers are 0-6 in his last six starts versus the A's, including 0-2 in two career starts in Oakland.  He was rocked in both of those starts,  giving up 11 runs in 10 1-3 innings.  Straily has been good against Texas, going 2-0 in his last two starts against the Rangers.  In six career starts against them, the A's have won or lost by a single run in five of them.  Take the A's on the run line.

 

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls -4.5

The Key: After losing the season's first two meetings in January, Chicago flexed its muscles with a 96-78 victory at Washington earlier this month.  Despite the big win, the Bulls will not be overlooking Washington because it defeated them by 14 on this floor earlier this season.  Chicago has edges in playoff experience, on defense and in the coaching box.  Consider that Thibodeau is 205-107 and has led the Bulls to the playoffs in all four seasons.  Wittman is in the postseason for the first time.  You want to fade underdogs that are seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss when they are matched up against an opponent off a road loss.  Doing so has produced a 95-60 ATS mark the last five seasons.  Lay the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -137

The Key: This is a good price to bet Strasburg at home.  He is coming off a bad outing in Miami, which means he'll be extremely focused here.  The guy rarely has back-to-back poor showings.  The Nationals are 9-3 in Strasburg's last 12 starts, 4-1 in his last 5 home starts, 12-2 in his last 14 Sunday starts and 4-0 in his last 4 game 4 of a series starts.  The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 game 4's of a series while the Cardinals are 1-6 in their last 7 game 4's.  The Nationals are 40-16 in their last 56 games as a favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 while the Cardinals are 4-12 in their last 16 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  You want to back favorites with a money line of -110 or higher in the first half of the season if they are batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games.  Doing so has produced a 102-40 mark the last 5 seasons.  You also want to fade road teams with a starting pitcher who gives up an average of 1.0 home run or more per start if the bullpen has thrown 5 innings or less over the last 3 games.  That's because doing so has produced an 82-37 mark the last 5 seasons.  Take the Nats.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Mavs/Spurs Under 206.5

The Key: In four regular-season meetings between these two, we've seen total scores of 223, 202, 218 and 209.  That's good for an average total score of 213 points.  However, we are getting a number much lower than that here.  Clearly, odds makers are begging for the money to come in on the OVER, but we won't oblige them.  Dallas lost all four regular-season matchups, and its three-point defense was a big reason why.  It allowed the Spurs to connect on 42 of 97 three-point attempts and were minus 54 points from beyond the arc.  Head coach Rick Carlisle knows his team must do a much better job defending the three to have a shot in this series, and that is what I expect from the start.  You want to play the UNDER on all teams like Dallas that are playing four games or less in 10 days, provided they have a win percentage of 51% to 60% and are playing a winning team.  Doing so has produced a 75-31 mark the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 11-4 in the Spurs' last 15 games overall, 5-2 in their last seven home games, 8-3 in the last 11 home games versus Dallas and 6-2 in their last eight first round NBA playoff contests.  Take the Under.

6* NBA Bailout on Thunder -7

The Key: The Thunder were knocked out of the playoffs in five games by Memphis last season, and they will be looking to send a message from the jump that it won't happen again.  The Grizzlies have been a bad investment on the road where they are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine and 1-8 ATS in their last nine versus teams that have a winning home record.  The Thunder, meanwhile, have been a strong investment at home where they are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 versus teams with winning road marks.  Memphis didn't have to deal with Russell Westbrook in last year's series, but it isn't so fortunate this time around.  The Thunder won three of four regular-season meetings with the victories coming by 10.3 points on average.  The favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Lay the points.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Giants -127

The Key: First off, this is a nice price to back the Giants on the road where they are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Padres won the opener 2-1, but they are 4-10 in their last 14 games following a win and 0-5 in their last five in the second game of a series.  San Francisco's Hudson has been defying his age.  He has a 2.35 ERA on the season, and his teams are 8-0 in his last eight starts.  Stults has stumbled out of the gate and has a 5.52 ERA.  The Padres are 2-9 in Stults' last 11 starts versus a team with a winning record.  Hudson is 6-1 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 starts versus the Padres.  Stults has a 6-4 record in 15 starts against the Giants, but it's deceiving as his ERA in these starts is 5.44.  We'll take the better offensive team with the better starter on the mound at a pretty nice price.

 

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers -7.5

The Key: The Pacers are the superior team in this matchup, especially on their home floor where they are 35-6.  The Hawks are just 14-28 on the road.  After winning six consecutive home games in the series by an average of 13.7 points, the Pacers were embarrassed 107-88 by the Hawks Apr. 6.  Because of that loss, they won't be overlooking Atlanta here.  In fact, they'll be out to send a message from the start.  You might recall that Indiana met Atlanta in the first round of last season's playoffs, and the Pacers won each of their three home games in that series by 17, 15 and 23 points.  The Hawks have been notoriously bad on the road in the postseason, going 10-27 ATS in road playoffs games since 1996 with an average losing margin of 12.7 points. Lay the points.

7* MLB Game of the Week on Royals -137

The Key: The Royals will be all business when they take the field tonight as they seek revenge for getting swept last weekend in Minneapolis.  Despite losing each of the season's first three meetings with the Twins, the Royals are still 18-8 in the last 26 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 at home.  The Twins have lost five of their last six series openers and are just 4-10 in their last 14 on the road.  The Royals are 4-0 in their last four home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 7-2 in their last nine series openers, 15-6 in their last 21 home games and 6-1 in their last seven games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Nolasco shut down the Royals in his last starts, but things haven't gone as well for him on the road where he has given up five earned runs or more in each of his last four starts.  Vargas has been lights out (1.64 ERA), and he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of four home starts against the Twins.  You want to back teams following a stretch where they allowed four runs or less in four straight games if they are averaging 4.5 runs per game or less on the season and are up against an AL starter with an ERA of 4.70 to 5.70.  Doing so has produced a 42-14 mark the last 3 seasons.  Take the Royals.

6* MLB *AFTERNOON DELIGHT* on Giants -110

The Key: The Giants have won four of five against the Dodgers this season, and I expect them to earn the three-game series sweep this afternoon behind Bumgarner.  Going back to last season, the Giants are 6-0 in his last six starts.  He is 9-3 with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 0.991 in 12 starts against the Dodgers, including 3-0 in his last three overall and 3-0 in his last three at home.  He gave up just two runs while striking out 10 and walking one in a 7-2 victory over the Dodgers April 5.  LA's Ryu is 2-3 with an ERA of 3.89 in six starts against the Giants.  He gave up 8 runs while striking out only two and walking three in an 8-4 defeat to San Francisco April 4.  The Dodgers are now 0-4 in their last four meetings in San Francisco.  Take the Giants.

 

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Rockies +139

The Key: The Rockies are showing value at this price with De La Rosa on the hill.  The southpaw has had San Diego's number.  The Rockies are 11-0 in his last 11 starts versus the Padres and 5-0 all-time in his road starts versus the Padres.  He's given up three earned runs or less in each of the five victories in San Diego.  Cashner has a 5.56 ERA in four starts against the Rockies.  The Padres are 0-2 in his last two starts against the Rockies, and he was outdueled by De La Rosa in both of these.  San Diego is also 0-2 all-time in his two home starts versus the Rockies as well.  In addition, Colorado has a significant edge at the plate where it is batting .305 and scoring 5.9 runs per game against right-handed starters.  San Diego is batting .185 and scoring 3.0 runs per game against left-handed starters.  Take Colorado.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bobcats +1

The Key: The Bulls have already locked up home-court advantage in the first round so they don't have as much to play for as Charlotte, which would like to land the No. 6 seed to avoid Miami.  The Bobcats have been a nice investment against the Central division at 6-0 ATS in their last six.  They have also been an outstanding investment at home where they are 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21.  It is also worth noting that Charlotte is 13-1 ATS this season when matched up against teams with a win percentage of 51% to 60% and has defeated these foes by an average score of 101.5 to 98.2.  Take Charlotte.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Padres -118
The Key: I'll get behind San Diego at this price with the edge they have on the mound with Stults. His teams are 7-0 all-time in his starts against the Rockies, and he's held them to three earned runs or less in five of these starts. Lyles is 0-2 in two career starts at San Diego, given up nine earned runs in 10 innings. San Diego's on-base percentage is only .270, but that didn't stop it from an impressive series win over the Detroit Tigers. Besides, Lyles' teams are 0-14 lifetime in his road starts versus NL clubs with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse. It is also worth noting that the Rockies are 17-41 in their last 58 road games and 14-38 in their last 52 road games versus a left-handed starter. The Padres are 35-16 in their last 51 games as a home favorite. Take San Diego.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Suns -2
The Key: This is a must-win game for Phoenix, which needs the "W" to keep its playoff hopes alive. In addition, the Suns have lost their last two games as well as three prior meetings with Memphis this season so we will see them playing desperate basketball tonight. The Grizzlies have an opportunity to clinch a playoff spot with a win, but I don't think they'll have enough left in the tank after playing yesterday. Plus, the Grizzlies are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games versus a team with a winning home record. Lay the points.

6* MLB *Afternoon Delight* on Royals -119
The Key: Look for Kansas City to pick up its first road win of the season this afternoon. The Royals have been struggling offensively in this series, but they catch a break here with Correia heading to the hill. His teams are 0-6 lifetime in his starts against the Royals, and he's posted a 5.29 ERA in these outings. In addition, the Twins are 0-6 in Correia's last 6 starts, 0-7 in his last 7 home starts, 0-6 in his last 6 starts on 5 days' rest, 0-5 in his last 5 starts divisional starts, 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog and 0-4 in his last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Correia has a 6.17 ERA through 2 starts this season while Kansas City's Vargas has an ERA of only 1.20. Take Kansas City.

7* NBA Game of the Month on Pacers -1.5
The Key: This game means a lot more to Indiana, which still has a chance to earn home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The Thunder are locked into the No. 2 position in the West so their focus turns to making sure they are healthy entering the playoffs. The Pacers have struggled down the stretch and are looking to carry some much-needed momentum into the postseason. A win here would do a lot for their confidence. The Thunder crushed Indiana in December so the Pacers will have added motivation today. The Thunder are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record. You want to back teams like Indiana that have failed to cover in 12 or more of their last 15 games when they are up against a team that has covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. Doing so has produced a 68-34 ATS mark since 1996. Take Indiana.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Cavaliers -8
The Key: Motivated by last night's loss to lowly Milwaukee, and further fueled by losses in each of the season's first two meetings with Boston, Cleveland will be all business when it takes the floor tonight. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss, and they'll be happy to be home where they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven and 4-0 ATS in their last four against Boston. The Celtics have been atrocious on the road where they are 0-13 in their last 13 with an average losing margin of 9.3 points. Lay the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -135
The Key: San Francisco has had Colorado's number. The Giants have won 42 of the last 61 meetings overall and 35 of the last 51 at home. The Rockies are only 2-14 in San Francisco since Aug. 11, 2012, which comes as no surprise since they are 16-40 in their last 56 road games overall. Cain has been a thorn in Colorado's side. He's 6-0 with a 3.09 ERA in seven starts against the Rockies since June 3, 2011, and has held them to a .198 average during this span. The Giants are 7-0 in his last seven home starts versus the Rockies. Colorado's Anderson is 0-2 in two starts against the Giants, and both came at AT&T Park where he's compiled a 7.00 ERA and .351 opponents' batting average. Anderson's teams are 5-19 in his starts as an underdog of +150 or less. Take San Francisco.

7* MLB Game of the Week on Angels -160
The Key: This is a tough spot for the Mets, who had to make the long cross-country trip late last night after playing in Atlanta. While the Mets will be feeling jet lag, the Angels will be fresh after having yesterday off. The Halos will also be hungry as they look to capture their first home win of the season. The Angels are 21-6 in their last 27 games following an off day. Southpaw Tyler Skaggs spun a gem in his first start of the season, and I'm expecting another one as he faces a New York club that is 3-13 in its last 16 games versus a left-handed starter. The Mets are 1-5 in their last six interleague games as an underdog and 0-4 in their last four road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Angels are 4-0 in their last four interleague games, 4-0 in their last four versus the National League East and 5-0 in their last five interleague games versus a right-handed starter (Gee). The Angels are also 5-1 in their last six games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 13-4 in their last 17 versus a team with a losing record. Take the Angels.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +10.5
The Key: The Bulls are being overvalued here. You want to fade Friday double-digit home favorites after four consecutive wins or more as doing so has produced a 24-9 ATS mark the last five seasons. You also want to fade double-digit favorites that have held their last two opponents to 90 points or less if they are matched up against a team off a loss of 20 points or more as doing so has produced a 53-23 ATS mark since 1996. In addition, double-digit road underdogs off a double-digit loss to a division foe are 25-5 ATS the last five seasons in games taking place in the second half of the season. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and I expect this trend to continue. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Nuggets/Warriors Under 214.5
The Key: The Nuggets combined with the Rockets for 239 points last night. The Warriors combined with the Jazz for 234 points in their last game. And, the Nuggets and Warriors combined for 239 points on this floor the last time they met. Despite the recent efforts of these teams, and the result of their last matchup, we are seeing a number of only 214.5. This tells me the books want the money on the Over. Golden State has quietly been locking down opponents on its home floor, holding the last five visitors to an average of 90.4 points. Having had three days of rest prior to this game, I expect a fresh Golden State squad to be strong defensively again, and it will only help their cause that Denver used a lot of energy in last night's win. Even with a 130-point outburst against Utah in their last home game, the Warriors are averaging only 101.2 points over their last five at home. The Under is 38-15 in the Warriors' last 53 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 37-15-1 in their last 53 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Under is 19-7-1 in the Warriors' last 27 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game and 12-5 in their last 17 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Under is 16-7-1 in Golden State's last 24 overall and 13-6-1 in its last 20 home games. Take the Under.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Phillies -117
The Key: Milwaukee has won five straight (all on the road), but I believe its run comes to an end this evening. The Brewers have been swinging the sticks (.280 batting avg.), but Cliff Lee is still one of the best in the game. He gave up no runs in 7 innings of a 2-0 win at Chicago last time out while striking out 6 and walking no one. History is clear, you want to fade any NL team with a batting average of .275 or better when they are up against a starting pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. Doing so has produced a 31-12 mark the last five seasons. The Phillies are 4-1 in Lee's last 5 home starts, 4-1 in his last 5 starts as a favorite and 7-3 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite. The Phillies are 9-3 in their last 12 games as a home favorite, 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 7-2 in their last 9 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Lee has given up 3 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts against Milwaukee with his teams winning 4 of these outings. Milwaukee's Marco Estrada, on the other hand, has an ERA of 9.00 in two starts against Philadelphia. It is also worth noting that the Brewers have done most of their damage at the plate against righties. They are batting just .224 and scoring only 3.0 runs per game off lefty starters this season. Take Philly.

6* MLB Bailout on Angels -108
The Key: The Angels have lost all four meetings with Seattle this season, and I expect them to dig down deep to make sure the skid comes to an end tonight. Richards looked good in his first start, earning an easy win over Houston. He's also looked good against Seattle, going 2-1 with an ERA of 2.53 in three starts. He gave up only 4 hits in 7 1-3 innings of a 2-0 victory Aug. 23 in his most recent start at Safeco. The Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite and 4-1 in Richards' last 5 starts as a favorite. The Mariners are 3-8 in their last 11 games following a win, 6-13 in their last 19 home games and 6-15 in their last 21 games versus a right-handed starter. Take the Halos.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards -5
The Key: Motivated by Saturday's ugly 96-78 loss to Chicago, and further fueled by two straight losses to Charlotte, Washington will take care of business tonight. This is a game the Wizards need. They would fall into a tie with Charlotte with a loss and would also lose the tiebreaker. The Wizards lost 100-94 in Charlotte Mar. 31, but they are 19-5 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a loss where they gave up 100 points or more. The Bobcats are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Magic +5.5
The Key: This is a bad situation for Brooklyn, which is coming off an emotional win in Miami last night that gave it the season sweep over the Heat. It will be mighty hard for the Nets to get up for a second road game in as many nights against the lowly Magic, especially when it looks like they're locked into the fifth seed as they trail the Raptors and Bulls by two games with just five remaining. The Magic are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games while the Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Orlando is 9-1 ATS in home games this season when checking in with 12 losses or more in their last 15 games. It is 9-1 ATS this season as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6.0 points. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Pistons/Hawks Under 209.5
The Key: The Hawks fit into a strong "Under" system here. You want to play the "Under" when the total is 200.0 or higher on teams like Atlanta that are off 3 consecutive Overs if they are matched up against an opponent that's off 4 or more consecutive Overs. Doing so has produced a 38-16 mark the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average total line of 209.4 in these games but just 205.5 total points scored on average. Atlanta really tightened the screws defensively in its last two games against Cleveland and Indiana, and I expect it to continue its inspired play at the defensive end as it tries to hang on to the final playoff spot in the East. Detroit doesn't have anything left to play for other than pride, and I expect to see it get up for this game as it tries to end a 10-game skid in Atlanta. The Pistons should also benefit at the defensive end from having had the last two days off. Take the Under.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Indians -145
The Key: Cleveland is supported by a very lucrative system here. Teams in the first 12 games of the season that closed last season with 20 wins or more in their last 30 games are 65-25 the last 5 seasons. If the team we are playing is a favorite of -110 or more, had a winning record last season and is playing a club that had a losing season, this system tightens up to 37-7. The Tribe has been terrific at home with Kluber on the mound. It is 8-1 in his last 9 home starts, including 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite. The Padres are 2-8 in Ross' last 10 starts and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as an underdog. Take the Tribe.

7* National Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Kentucky -2.5
The Key: Coach Calipari's kids have won back-to-back nailbiters, but don't expect them to crack. Consider that his teams are 9-0 ATS after two straight wins of 6 points or less since 1997 and have won these games by an average score of 74.5 to 64.8. Also consider that his Kentucky teams are 18-2 in the Big Dance, including 11-0 in their last 11. He's often had the most talent on the floor since coming to Kentucky, and he's often been able to push the right buttons in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats are 7-0-1 ATS in post regular-season tournament games this season and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament contests. Like Kentucky, UConn has won its last five. However, the Huskies are 0-6 ATS following 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. I like Calipari's big-game coaching experience, and I like Kentucky's size here. I expect the Wildcats to dominate the glass and live at the foul line. Kentucky gets to the line 29 times per game, and teams that have been that successful drawing fouls have given UConn big problems. The Huskies are on a 3-12 ATS slide versus teams that attempt 28 free throws per game or more. Lay the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Royals +106
The Key: The Royals are showing some nice value at this price given their success against Tampa Bay and Vargas' success against Tampa Bay. The Royals are 10-3 in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1 in the last 7. They are a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 at home in the series, winning these by an average of 5.3 runs. The Rays are 0-2 in Moore's starts against Kansas City, and he has an ERA of 6.40 in these games. Vergas has an ERA of 3.47 in 8 starts against the Rays. He's given up no earned runs in two of his last three starts against them and has held them to 3 earned runs or less in five of the eight starts. He's won two of his last three starts against them and three of his last five. This is also a bad scheduling spot for Tampa Bay, who takes the road for the first time this season and without a day of rest. This is Kansas City's fourth straight game at home, and it will be ready. Take the Royals.

6* ESPN2 Sunday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -147
The Key: The Dodgers have lost the first two games of this series, but I look for them to bounce back strong behind a gem from Greinke. Greinke's clubs are 24-6 in his home starts since the start of the 2012 season. The Dodgers are 11-1 in Greinke's starts when he gets the ball following a team loss. The Dodgers are 5-0 in his last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, 12-1 in his last 13 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, 5-0 in his last 5 starts in the third game of a series and 10-1 in his last 11 divisional starts. Greinke's teams are 38-13 all-time in his home starts as a favorite of -125 to -175. The Giants are 3-13 in Cain's last 16 starts, including 0-6 in his last 6. The Giants are 0-6 in Cain's last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the National League West and 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus a team with a winning record. Lastly, the Giants are 1-6 in Cain's last 7 starts versus Dodgers, including 0-3 in his last 3 overall and 0-3 in his last 3 in LA. Greinke's teams are 2-0 in his starts against the Giants. Take the Dodgers.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Grizzlies +7.5
The Key: The knee-jerk reaction might be to back the Spurs as they look to bounce back following their first loss since Feb. 21, especially since they are up against a team they have had a great deal of success against. I'm resisting that reaction as the Spurs are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, which tells me they aren't overly motivated by losses and odds makers inflate their lines following defeats. The Grizzlies are an impressive 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. They've lost 9 straight in San Antonio, but the last two defeats there came by only 4 and 7 points, respectively. Memphis can't afford to let up as it is in a tight race with Dallas and Phoenix for the final two playoff spots in the West. Plus, it will be extremely motivated here as it goes up against a team that it was swept by in last year's playoffs and has won each of this season's three meetings. You want to back road teams that have failed to cover the spread in 6 straight games or more if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team. Doing so has produced a 23-5 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

7* Final Four Game of the Year on Wisconsin +2
The Key: Kentucky has had a great run, but I believe it comes to an end here. Wisconsin has two significant edges where its matters most this time of year. They have a sizable edge in terms of experience, and they hold the advantage at the point-guard position with Traevon Jackson. Wisconsin reminds me of the San Antonio Spurs a little bit. This experienced group of upperclassmen really knows how to play together. Kentucky is the more talented team individually, but the sum of its parts doesn't match what Wisconsin brings to the table. The Badgers won't beat themselves the way I have seen Kentucky do at times this season. And, this Wisconsin team is quicker and more athletic that it often gets credit for. One thing you haven't wanted to do lately is go against Bo Ryan's boys when they are a #4 seed or better in the Big Dance. That's because they are 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in the NCAA Tournament when seeded 4th or better, and they have won these games by an average score of 69.9 to 56.7. The Badgers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games and 7-1 ATS in all neutral court lined games this season. Take Wisconsin.

7* MLB Game of the Week on Rockies -128
The Key: The Rockies are showing tremendous value at this price at home with De La Rosa on the hill. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter, which comes as no surprise because they haven't been able to figure out De La Rosa. He has a 2.53 ERA in 16 starts against them, and the Rockies are 9-0 all-time in his home starts against them. He hasn't given up more than 2 earned runs in any of these 9 starts. Backing De La Rosa at home has paid off big time as the Rockies are 44-15 in his last 59 home starts. The Diamondbacks are 1-6 in McCarthy's last 7 starts as an underdog. Take Colorado.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers -3
The Key: I love the Cavs in this highly motivated spot. Not only did they lay an egg in Atlanta last night, but they have lost each of the season's first three meetings with the Bobcats. Plus, they are hanging on to playoff hopes by a thread and must get this one to have a chance. You want to take all teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are seeking revenge for 3 straight losses to an opponent if that opponent is off back-to-back covers as a favorite. Doing so has produced a 77-40 ATS mark since 1996. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Bobcats are a terrible 17-42 ATS in their last 59 games when playing without a day of rest. Take Cleveland.

6* Final Four *CA$H COW* on Florida -6
The Key: UConn has gotten on a roll since losing to Louisville in the AAC tournament championship. It is 4-0 SU and ATS in the NCAA Tournament, but now's the time to go against the Huskies as they are 0-7 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins under coach Kevin Ollie. Florida lost by a point at UConn in early December despite shooting 49.0 percent from the floor and outrebounding the Huskies by eight. The three-point line proved to be their downfall as they were -24 from beyond the arc. UConn shot 11 of 24 from three in that contest, and I don't see it duplicating it. Florida is too good defensively to get beat from deep again. The Gators are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 NCAA Tournament games, and I expect them to extend this streak while having their revenge against UConn.

6* NBA Bailout on Lakers +8
The Key: This is a letdown spot for the Mavs following last night's big win over the Clippers. They've posted a pair of lopsided victories over the Lakers this season so they won't be nearly as focused as they were last night even though they are in a tight playoff race. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. They've won 3 of their last 4 at home and have recent home wins over the Thunder, Knicks and Suns. They are 20-11 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Take the points as LA keeps this one within the number.

7* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Rockets -2.5
The Key: Motivated by three consecutive defeats and further fueled by losses in each of the season's first three meetings with Oklahoma City, Houston will get back in the win column tonight. This is a letdown spot for the Thunder following last night's big win over the Spurs. Now, they hit the road where they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 with losses to the Suns, Lakers and Mavs during this stretch. The Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games with wins over Miami, Indiana and Portland during this stretch. The Rockets are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600. It looks like Dwight Howard will miss another game, but the Thunder are expected to be without Russell Westbrook and Kendrick Perkins. Regardless of who suits up, I believe Houston will play with more desperation because it needs this game more. Lay the points.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Royals -148
The Key: Kansas City has the edge on the mound with Guthrie. The Royals are 18-5 in his last 23 home starts and 7-2 in his last 9 starts versus the White Sox. He gave up 2 earned runs or fewer in each of the seven wins. The Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 21-5 in their last 26 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Chicago's Erik Johnson isn't nearly as proven. Plus, his team is just 15-43 in its last 58 road games and 2-10 in its last 12 road games versus a right-handed starter. Take KC.

6* NBA Bailout on Mavericks +4.5
The Key: I'll grab the points with a Dallas team that has performed well on the road and in bounce-back spots and is in must-win mode as it tries to make the postseason. The Mavericks are 43-18 ATS in their last 61 road games, including 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Mavericks are also 38-13 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. The Clippers are playing their second game in as many days and used a lot of energy to come back from 17 down against the Suns last night. They are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games against Dallas. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER on Thunder -3.5
The Key: San Antonio's winning streak comes to an end tonight. The Spurs are playing their second game in as many nights, their third in four days and fifth in seven days. Oklahoma City will be the fresher side as it has had the last three days off. The Spurs have struggled with Oklahoma City, losing the last four meetings by an average of 9.3 points. They are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games at OKC, losing them by 11.0 points on average. They are 1-9-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. Thunder are 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine home games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. The most important thing to the Spurs right now is to enter the postseason rested and healthy. I don't see Popovich giving big minutes to his key guys in the second game of a back-to-back just to get a win. San Antonio is confident in its abilities and should secure the best record in the league regardless of what happens here. This game means more to a Thunder team that wants to make a statement that it's still the team to beat. Lay the points.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Rays -149
The Key: After winning the series opener 9-2, the Rays have dropped the last two while scoring just two total runs. That should change here with Toronto sending Morrow to the mound. The right-hander has really struggled against the Rays, giving up at least 5 earned runs in four of his last six starts against them. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in Morrow's last 5 starts as a road underdog and 0-4 in his last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Archer gives Tampa Bay the edge on the mound with a 1.65 ERA in three starts against the Blue Jays. The Rays are 5-0 in his last 5 home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus a team with a winning record. The Blue Jays are 16-44 in their last 60 meetings in Tampa Bay. Take the Rays.

6* NIT *CA$H COW* on SMU -3
The Key: Look for SMU to bring home the NIT Championship. The Mustangs have a significant edge in the coaching box with Larry Brown. Plus, SMU has been the better team on foreign courts this season. The Golden Gophers are 6-10 in road/neutral court games this season while the Mustangs are 9-8. Minnesota is 1-7 ATS this season in games played away from home versus teams like SMU that outscore opponents by 8.0 ppg or more. The Gophers have lost to these teams by an average score of 79.3 to 64.6. SMU is 6-0 ATS in games played away from home after a win of 6 points or fewer the last three seasons. Lay the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Angels -134
The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, I expect the Angels to dig down deep and gut out a win tonight. Seattle hasn't started 3-0 since 1995, and it is on a 9-20 slide after two or more consecutive wins. The Mariners are also on a 10-24 skid after allowing three runs or less in two straight games. The Angels, on the other hand, are 99-61 under Scioscia in home games after allowing eight runs or more. You want to fade American League teams with a starting pitcher who had a WHIP of 1.300 or better last season after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. Doing so has produced a 23-7 mark the last three seasons. Seattle is on a 4-17 skid after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs. Lastly, the Mariners are 22-50 in their last 72 road games in the series. Take the Halos.

6* NBA Bailout on Suns -2.5
The Key: Off an ugly loss to the Lakers, out for revenge for two straight losses to the Clippers and playing to hang on to a playoff spot, the Suns will be extremely hungry when they take the floor tonight. The Suns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss. They are also 17-8 ATS this season when playing with double revenge. Take Phoenix.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Knicks -2
The Key: The Knicks will be the more motivated team tonight as they are on the outside of the playoff picture, and they were crushed 103-80 on this floor the last time they met the Nets. New York is an awesome 27-9 ATS since 1996 when seeking revenge for a home loss of 20 points or more. The Nets won at home against Houston last night but are 5-11 this season in the second game of a back-to-back. The Knicks are playing a third game in four days but will benefit from playing at home. They are 19-7 ATS under coach Woodson in home games when playing a third game in four days. Take New York.

6* CBI *CA$H COW* on Fresno State +1
The Key: Look for Fresno State to extend the series with a win tonight. There is a time-tested system in play that shows the odds are in Fresno State's favor. Road teams seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent that are playing with one day of rest or none are 401-278 ATS the last five seasons. In addition, Fresno State has performed very well in tonight's situation. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS under coach Rodney Terry when seeking revenge for an upset loss to an opponent. They are also 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6.0 points or less or pickem under Terry. The Bulldogs are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss and 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 road games. Take Fresno State.

6* NIT Annihilator on Florida State -1.5
The Key: These teams met clear back in December with Minnesota winning 71-61, but that game was played in Minneapolis. The Golden Gophers haven't been nearly the same team away from home where they are 5-10 on the season and 2-8 in their last 10. Florida State is a respectable 10-8 this season in games played away from home, including 4-1 in their last five. The Seminoles are 33-19 ATS under coach Hamilton when seeking revenge for a same-season loss. They are 10-2 ATS under Hamilton in neutral court games when the total is 135.0 to 139.5. They are also 56-35 ATS under Hamilton in all games when the line is +3 to -3. The Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games. Lay the number.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Rockets/Nets Under 210
The Key: You want to play the UNDER on any team (Houston) after two or more consecutive OVERS if they are matched up against a team off five or more consecutive OVERS. Doing so has produced a 59-27 record the last five seasons. You also want to take the UNDER on home teams when the total is 200 or higher if they've gone OVER the total by 36 points or more in their last five games and if they have a win percentage between 51-60%. Doing so has produced a 76-36 record the last five seasons. Houston is 8-1 UNDER this season after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games. Brooklyn is 10-1 UNDER in home games since 1996 after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games. Take the UNDER.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Dodgers -142
The Key: Zack Greinke has dominated the NL West since becoming a member of the Dodgers. In fact, the Dodgers are 9-1 in his last 10 starts versus the division. He's done plenty of damage against the Padres throughout his career. He's 3-0 (5-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.74 in five career starts versus San Diego. Three of these starts came in San Diego so he's clearly very comfortable pitching there. Ian Kennedy has struggled against the Dodgers. His clubs are 0-3 in his last three starts against them, and he's been tagged for 14 runs in 17 2/3 innings in these starts. The Dodgers do not like Kennedy, a feeling that stems from an incident last season when he drilled Yasiel Puig in the face and later Greinke in the back. Off a loss in the first game of the series and facing a starter they detest, the Dodgers will bring a great deal of focus and fire to the ballpark today.

6* MLB Opening Day Annihilator on A's -134
The Key: I don't trust Cleveland's Masterson here. The right-hander has an ERA of 8.10 in eight career starts against the A's and is 0-5 in five career starters in Oakland. The Indians are also 1-7 in Masterson's last eight starts as a road underdog. The Athletics have been a tremendous favorite at 90-44 in their last 134 games in the role. They are 63-28 in their last 91 games as a home favorite. They are also 5-1 in Gray's last six starts. Take Oakland.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Indiana Pacers +4.5
The Key: San Antonio is the hottest team in the NBA. It lost to the Pacers at home by 11 points earlier this season, but getting revenge won't be easy. You want to fade teams that are seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent when they are off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Doing so has produced a 42-16 ATS mark since 1996. You also want to go against teams seeking revenge for a loss where they allowed 110 points or more if the team they are up against is off an upset loss to a division opponent. Doing so has produced a 42-11 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Spurs are having another spectacular season but are just 1-9 ATS against teams with a win percentage above .700 this season. The Pacers are 14-4 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.