Sports Picks & Predictions

6* ACC Game of the Day on Virginia +6 

The Key: Bronco Mendenhall is doing big things in Year 3 at Virginia.  He clearly has his best team yet.  The Cavaliers are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  Their only loss was a 4-point road loss to Indiana in the slop as 5-point underdogs.  They beat Richmond 42-13 as 14.5-point favorites.  They beat Ohio 45-31 as 4-point favorites.  And they dominated Louisville 27-3 as 4.5-point favorites.  Their offense is one of the most improved in the country, and their defense is also greatly improved over last year.  They are averaging 32.5 PPG and giving up just 16.7 PPG and 297 YPG.  NC State lost a ton of NFL talent from their defense last year and returned just 3 starters on that side of the ball.  After a weak schedule to open the season with wins over James Madison, Georgia State and Marshall, they take a big step up in class here against the Cavaliers.  Virginia is 7-0 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The Cavaliers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Virginia. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on UL-Lafayette +49.5 

The Key: Alabama is notorious for not being able to cover the spread in these situations.  They are coming off a big win over Texas A&M, and now they step out of the conference this week before playing another SEC game against Arkansas next week.  They just don’t seem like they are ever concerned with running up the score.  The starters should be out of the game early in the 3rd quarter.  That’s going to make it difficult for them to win by 50-plus to cover this spread.  Bets on underdogs of 31.5 or more points who failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games against a team with a. Winning record are 48-17 ATS since 1992.  Take UL-Lafayette. 

7* Memphis/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Tulane +15 

The Key: This feels like a huge game for Tulane if they want to get to a bowl game this year.  The Green Wave have opened 1-3 with road losses to UAB and Ohio State and a home loss to Wake Forest amidst a brutal schedule.  I think they will be ‘all in’ here trying to get a win against Memphis.  This is a Memphis team that only beat lowly South Alabama 52-35 as 31.5-point home favorites last week.  If South Alabama can hang, I certainly believe Tulane can at home.  And Memphis lost its only road game this year 21-22 at Navy, getting upset at 6.5-point favorites.  The Tigers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 50 points or more.  The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS in home games off a non-conference game over the last 3 years.  Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games overall.  Take Tulane. 

6* Yankees/Red Sox AL East *CA$H COW* on New York -128 

The Key: The Yankees can clinch home field in the wild card game with a win Friday against their bitter rivals in the Red Sox.  They have a lot to play for here and will be hungry.  The Red Sox have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the postseason and don’t need to try at all these last few games.  That’s probably why they are starting Brian Johnson, who is 0-1 with a 7.21 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Johnson sports a 7.20 ERA and 1.60 WHIP lifetime against New York.  J.A. Haps is 6-2 with a 2.29 ERA in 11 road starts this year.  Happ is 1-0 with a 0.53 ERA in his last 3 starts and wants to continue to prove that he deserves to start the wild card game.  Few starters have had the success that Happ has against the Red Sox.  He is 7-4 with a 2.84 ERA in 19 lifetime starts against Boston.  Happ is 8-0 against the money line in September road games over the last 3 years.  The Yankees are 8-2 in Hap’s last 10 starts.  Take New York. 

7* Vikings/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +7.5 

The Key: The Vikings are simply catching too many points tonight against the Los Angeles Rams.  The Vikings have been downgraded big time by the public after their upset loss to the Bills last week.  But that loss will only have them even more hungry to bounce back tonight.  And the Rams could not be viewed any higher in the public’s eyes after their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start.  But they have beaten three teams in the Raiders, Cardinals and Chargers who have a combined one win between them this season.  Minnesota shut down the Rams 24-7 at home last year.  Jared Goff hasn’t seen a defense nearly as strong as the one he will be up against tonight.  The Vikings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss.  The Vikings are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 games overall.  Take Minnesota. 

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Atlanta Braves -112 

The Key: The Braves still have a chance to get the No. 2 seed in the National League.  They have just a one-game lead over the Rockies for that spot, which would result in home-field advantage in the divisional round.  So despite the fact that they’ve already clinched the division, they still have a lot to play for.  And the Braves have been striving for that No. 2 seed as they are 6-1 in their last 7 games overall.  The Braves have the clear edge on the mound with Julio Teheran, who is 9-8 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 30 starts this year.  Teheran is 9-6 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 23 lifetime starts against the Mets.  Jason Vargas is 6-9 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  Vargas is 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against the Braves.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Brewers/Cards NL Central *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Louis -102 

The Key: It’s time for the Cardinals to make a stand tonight.  They have lost the first 2 games of this series to the Brewers and now are a half-game behind the Rockies in the race for the final wild card.  It’s getting to must-win time for the Cardinals, and I expect them to deliver tonight.  I like what I’ve seen from John Gant, who is 5-6 with a 3.68 ERA in 18 starts this year.  Jhoulys Chacin has never been able to figure out the Cardinals.  He is 1-7 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts against them.  Milwaukee is 15-28 off 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.  The Cardinals are 36-15 in their last 51 after losing the first 2 games of a series.  St. Louis is 4-1 in Gants’ last 5 starts.  Take St. Louis. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125) 

The Key: The Dodgers have really come to life here down the stretch to try to secure the NL West title.  They are 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.  Now they’re up against the Diamondbacks, who have been eliminated from the postseason and are playing like it.  Arizona is just 1-8 in its last 9 games overall with 7 of those 8 losses coming by 2 runs or more.  I believe the Dodgers will win by at least 2 runs tonight as well due to their big edge on the mound.  Walker Buehler is 7-4 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 21 starts this year.  He gave up just 1 run with 9 strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings in his lone start against Arizona this season on September 2nd.  Matt Koch is 5-4 with a 4.52 ERA in 12 starts for the Diamondbacks this year and will be making his first start since June 19th, so he’s sure to be on a pitch count.  The Dodgers are 12-2 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Diamondbacks are 3-13 in this last 16 vs. a right-handed starter.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Steelers/Bucs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -1 

The Key: Before the season, the Steelers would have been close to a touchdown favorite here at Tampa Bay.  But after two weeks, the perception of the Steelers is way down because they tied the Browns and lost to the Chiefs.  But it’s clear the Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL, and the Browns are one of the most improved teams in the league.  The Bucs are 2-0 out of nowhere with upset wins over both the Saints and Eagles.  Their perception is through the roof right now.  They are overvalued.  Pittsburgh is still the better of these two teams.  They have the better defense and the better offense.  And now they are playing extra hungry looking for their first win of the year.  Expect the Steelers to come out like gangbusters in this one.  Mike Tomlin is 17-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of the Steelers.  The Steelers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a. Winning home record.  The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on St. Louis Cardinals -150 

The Key: The Cardinals have a one game lead on the Rockies for the 2nd wild card spot and trail the Brewers by 2 games for the top spot.  They have a big week ahead of them, starting with Game 1 here against the Brewers tonight.  I like their chances of getting a win with ace Jack Flaherty on the mound.  He is 8-8 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 26 starts this year with 174 strikeouts in 143 innings.  Flaherty is 4-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 11 home starts.  He is 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against the Brewers as well.  Dan Jennings will be making his first start of the season for the Brewers.  They will use their bullpen for this game.  St. Louis is 15-2 in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs this season.  The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 games overall, and 4-0 in their last 4 home games.  Take St. Louis. 

7* Chargers/Rams *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Chargers +7 

The Key: The Rams are getting too much hype right now.  They beat two bad teams in the Raiders and Cardinals and now everyone is crowning them Super Bowl champs already.  And they’re being priced like is as they are now the Super Bowl favorites, and they are 7-point favorites here against a good Chargers team.  The Rams won’t have much of a home-field advantage in this one as both of these teams are based in Los Angeles.  And the Chargers have notoriously been a better road team than home team.  The Chargers are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Take the Chargers. 

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+115) 

The Key:  The Cardinals should have no problem winning by 2 runs or more today over the hapless San Francisco Giants.  The Cards have won 5 of their last 6 as they try to make the postseason as either a wild card or an NL Central title.  And now they have a big edge on the mound over the Giants, who have nothing to play for.  Miles Mikolas is 7-4 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 15 home starts this year.  Andrew Suarez is 3-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 14 road starts.  Mikolas is 10-1 in day games this season with the Cards winning by 2.4 RPG on average.  Take St. Louis on the Run Line. 

6* Bengals/Panthers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are getting too much love now after their 2-0 start.  But they were outgained by 50 yards by the Colts and by 52 yards by the Ravens.  They are fortunate to be 2-0.  The Panthers will be hungry for a win here off their loss to the Falcons last week.  They beat the Cowboys 16-8 at home in Week 1 and are a great home team.  RB Joe Mixon, LB Vontaze Burfict and C Billy Price will all beat out for the Bengals this week.  The Panthers are 58-35 ATS in their last 93 games off a road loss.  Ron Rivera is an incredible 20-3 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Carolina.  The Panthers are winning by 7.8 PPG in this spot.  Take Carolina. 

6* Broncos/Ravens AFC *CA$H COW* on Baltimore -5 

The Key: The Ravens are in a supreme spot here.  They have an extra 3 days of rest and preparation after losing to the Bengals on the road last Thursday.  Now they return home fresh and ready to go.  They beat the Bills 47-3 at home in Week 1 and have a big home-field advantage.  The Broncos will be hitting the road for the first time after narrow home wins over the Raiders and Seahawks by a combined 4 points.  I believe the Broncos to be overvalued off their 2-0 start.  The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games off a loss.  The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with Denver.  Take Baltimore. 

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-120) 

The Key: The Cubs will be hungry for a win today, especially off back-to-back losses, including their 10-4 loss to the White Sox yesterday.  But now the Cubs have the clear edge on the mound tonight and will win this game by 2 runs or more because of it.  Jon Lester is in postseason form.  The left-hander has been terrific in his last 6 starts, going 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA.  Lucas Giolito is 3-6 with a 7.91 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 14 home starts for the White Sox this season.  It’s amazing he’s been able to keep his job in the rotation all season because he has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball.  Lester has been at his best on the road this year, going 10-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 road starts.  Lester has won each of his last 2 starts against the White Sox while yielding just 3 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings.  The Cubs are 32-7 in Lester’s last 39 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and they’re winning by 2.5 RPG on average in this spot.  Lester is 56-9 as a favorite of -200 or more lifetime with his teams winning by 3.2 RPG.  Take the Cubs on the Run Line. 

6* TCU/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +3.5 

The Key: The Texas Longhorns are ready to take the next step this season.  They beat USC 37-14 at home last week and now they host TCU for their Big 12 opener looking to make a statement.  They get the Horned Frogs at a great time, too.  TCU will still be licking its wounds from a tough loss to Ohio State last week.  I love backing Texas head coach Tom Herman in the underdog role.  He has gone 21-1 ATS as an underdog lifetime as a head coach or an assistant coach in his 4 different stops.  Take Texas. 

6* Kansas/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor -7.5 

The Key: I love the price we are getting with the Baylor Bears at home today against the Kansas Jayhawks.  Baylor is coming off an upset home loss to Duke, while Kansas is coming off back-to-back upset wins over Central Michigan and Rutgers.  That’s why we are getting the Bears so cheap today.  Baylor went into Kansas and won 38-9 last year.  And the Bears are much better this season than they were a year ago.  Baylor is now 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings, winning by 29, 42, 59, 46, 45 and 27 points, respectively.  Expect another blowout win in the Bears’ favor here Saturday.  Take Baylor. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Clemson -16 

The Key: The Clemson Tigers aren’t laying enough points to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.  That’s largely due to the fact that they are 0-3 ATS on the season, costing bettors money up to this point.  But I think the price is right to back them now here in a game they should win by 3 touchdowns and finally cash in a winning ticket.  They have owned Georgia Tech in recent seasons, holding them to a combined 17 points in the last 2 meetings.  They have figured out how to stop the triple-option, and they are coming off a dominant 38-7 win over Georgia Southern and their triple-option last week, giving them great preparation for this game Saturday.  The Tigers have held the Yellow Jackets to just 121 yards per game and 2.9 yards per rush on the ground in their last 3 meetings with them.  Georgia Tech lost 1,000-yard rusher KirVonte Benson a few weeks back against USF, and it’s no wonder they are coming off back-to-back losses as they fell to Pitt last week as well.  This should be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 31-7 victory Saturday, if not worse.  Take Clemson. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *BLOWOUT* on Iowa State -20 

The Key: Akron is coming off a huge upset win over Northwestern as 21-point underdogs last week.  They looked left for dead trailing 21-3 at halftime.  But then the craziness happened.  The Zips got 3 defensive touchdowns in the 2nd half and won 39-34.  Now they’re in a big letdown spot here against a hungry Iowa State team that is looking for its first win.  The Cyclones have played a brutal early schedule losing on the road at Iowa and at home to Oklahoma as dogs.  They will get right here against an Akron team they beat 41-14 on the road last season.  The Cyclones should have no problem winning this game by 3 touchdowns or more.  Iowa State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games.  The Cyclones are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC opponents.  Akron is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games off an upset win as a double-digit underdog.  The Zips are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a road win.  Take Iowa State. 

6* Notre Dame/Wake Forest *CA$H COW* on Wake Forest +7 

The Key: Notre Dame is probably the most overrated team in the country.  The Fighting Irish are 3-0 but could easily be 0-3.  All 3 of their victories have come by 8 points or less, including a 24-16 win over Ball State as 33.5-point favorites and a 22-17 win over Vanderbilt as 13.5-point favorites.  Now the Fighting Irish hit the road for the first time this season against a pesky Wake Forest team that nearly beat Boston College at home last time out, losing 34-41.  And the Demon Deacons have had a couple extra days to prepare for Notre Dame after playing BC last Thursday.  Wake hung tough in a 37-48 loss at Notre Dame as 14.5-point underdogs last season.  They managed 587 total yards against the Notre Dame defense in the loss.  The Demon Deacons once again have an explosive offense this season that is averaging 36 PPG and 547 YPG on the year.  The Demon Deacons are 11-3 ATS as underdogs over the last 3 seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 1-8 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 75% of their games over the last 3 years.  They are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Take Wake Forest. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Miami Marlins +130 

The Key: No starter in baseball has had more drastic splits over a big sample size than Wei-Yin Chen this season.  He has been awful on the road, but he has been Cy Young-caliber at home.  Chen is 5-3 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 12 home starts this year.  I love the price here getting the Marlins as home dogs against the Reds with Chen on the mound.  Neither team has much to play for other than price.  Luis Castillo is 4-7 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 16 road starts this year.  The Reds are 8-22 in their last 30 road games.  The Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 home meetings with Cincinnati.  Take Miami. 

7* FAU/UCF ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic +13.5 

The Key: I think UCF is overvalued due to having not lost a game since 2016.  And I think losing their game last week due to weather is a bad thing for them.  FAU is a team that returned 16 starters this year including 10 on defense.  The Owls have been tested as they’ve already played Oklahoma and Air Force.  They have had this game circled on their calendars and should put forth a home run effort.  UCF has not been tested yet playing Upon and South Carolina State.  The UConn put up 486 total yards on this UCF defense.  The Owls should have plenty of success with their running game, which is elite.  The Knights have allowed 198 rushing yards per game in their two games against awful competition.  The Owls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Jets/Browns AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3 

The Key: The Browns are just 1-32-1 in all games over the past 3 seasons.  However, I believe they are favored for a reason here.  They took the Steelers to overtime and tied them.  They should have beaten the Saints last week in a 21-18 loss in which they lost 8 points by the kicker, who was subsequently cut.  This Browns defense is loaded.  Greg Williams loves to blitz, and blitzing rookie quarterbacks is a winning strategy in the NFL.  This will be Sam Darnold’s stiffest test yet after facing weak Lions and Dolphins defenses in his first 2 games.  The Browns have forced 8 turnovers thus far and will force a few more here against Darnold and company.  Cleveland’s offense takes care of the football behind Tyrod Taylor.  That will be the difference in this game.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Angels/A’s AL West *CA$H COW* on Oakland A’s -125 

The Key: The A’s have a lot to play for right now as they are trying to secure a wild card spot.  They should be bigger favorites over the Angels because of it.  They won 10-0 yesterday and should have another big game offensively against Matt Shoemaker.  Edwin Jackson has been a blessing for the A’s, going 5-3 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts this year.  Jackson is 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Angels, yielding just 2 earned runs and 15 base runners in 21 1/3 innings.  The A’s are 12-1 in Jackson’s 13 starts vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse this season.  The A’s are 47-12 in their last 59 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Oakland. 

7* Giants/Padres NL West *BAILOUT* on San Francisco +134 

The Key: I’m confused how the Padres are even favored in this game, let alone such a big favorite.  I like the price we are getting with the Giants tonight due to their edge on the mound.  Chris Stratton is 10-9 with a 4.50 ERA in 24 starts this year, including 1-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Stratton owns the Padres, going 2-1 with a 0.92 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against them.  Robbie Erlin is 2-6 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 10 starts for the Padres this year, including 0-3 with a 7.91 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Erlin has never beaten the Giants, going 0-3 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against them.  Erlin is 1-9 lifetime in home games vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners per game.  The Padres are 1-14 in home games off a loss by 2 runs or less this season.  The Giants are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.  Take San Francisco. 

7* AL Total of the Month on White Sox/Indians UNDER 8 

The Key: There’s a lot to like about this UNDER today between the White Sox and Indians.  They both have their aces on the mound tonight.  Carlos Rodon is 6-5 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 17 starts for the White Sox this season.  Rodon is 4-2 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 12 lifetime starts against the Indians as well.  Corey Kluber is 18-7 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 30 starts this year, including 10-3 with a 2.05 EAR and 0.85 WHIP in 16 home starts.  Kluber is 11-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 21 lifetime starts against the White Sox, including 2-0 with a 0.50 ERA in his last 3 starts against Chicago, yielding just 1 earned run in 18 innings.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Rodon’s last 4 starts.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Kluber’s last 5 home starts.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Rodon’s last 5 starts against the Indians.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Seahawks/Bears NFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 43 

The Key: The Bears should be a great ‘over’ team this season.  They added a ton of weapons in the offseason, and new head coach Matt Nagy is an offensive guy who came over from Kansas City.  So far so good as the Bears lost to the Packers 23-24 in their opener and went OVER 44.5 points.  The Seahawks are also an ‘over’ team this season.  They can’t run the ball and have to throw it around 40 times a game with Russell Wilson.  And their defense has lost like 6 stars from last season, and they’re banged up right now as well with KJ Wright, Bobby Wagner and Byron Maxwell all unlikely to play.  So far so good for them as well as they lost 24-27 to the Broncos and went OVER 42.5 points.  They gave up 470 yards to the Broncos in the loss.  Pete Carroll is 16-4 OVER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Seattle.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.  Take the OVER. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia Phillies -115 

The Key: The Phillies are clinging on to their postseason hopes.  They are 6.5 games back in the NL East and 5 games back in the wild card.  Look for them to take care of the Mets in this series, starting with Game 1 tonight.  Jake Arrieta is 4-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 14 home starts this year.  Arrieta sports a 2.34 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts against the Mets.  He has allowed one or fewer runs in 7 of those 10 starts.  He has yielded just 2 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings in his last 3 starts against the Mets for a 0.89 ERA.  Take Philadelphia. 

6* Rockies/Giants NL West *CA$H COW* on Colorado -115 

The Key: The Rockies are now a half-game back of the Dodgers in the NL West after losing the first 2 games of this series to the Giants.  They’ll be hungry to avoid the sweep today and get a win here.  They should get one behind Antonio Senzatela, who has never lost to the Giants.  He is 4-0 (5-0 money line) with a 3.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against San Francisco.  Take Colorado. 

7* AFC East Game of the Month on New York Jets -2.5 

The Key: I’m a believer in the Jets.  They beat the Lions 48-17 in Week 1 in a dominant defensive effort, an impressive debut of Sam Darnold, and a solid rushing game that produced 169 yards.  Now the Jets head home for their first home game this season, and the fans will be packing the stands in Week 2 to see their rookie QB first-hand.  And the Jets are only 2.5-point favorites in this matchup with the Dolphins, who I believe to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.  And the Dolphins were gassed in the 4th quarter of that 7-hour marathon against the Titans that was continually delayed by lightning last week.  They won 27-20, but now they hit the road for the first time.  The Jets are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days’ rest over the last 2 seasons.  The Jets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Dolphins are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 road games.  Take New York. 

6* Chiefs/Steelers AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City +5.5 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers are very beatable this season, especially early on.  That was evident last week when the Browns took them to overtime in a tie.  The Steelers turned the ball over 6 times.  They clearly miss Le’Veon Bell and his leadership and passing skills out of the backfield.  Big Ben suffered an elbow injury and didn’t practice until late in the week.  The defense was awful last year once Ryan Shazier went out and they didn’t replace him this offseason.  CB Joe Haden is doubtful this week, and you don’t want to be without a starting corner when going up against this explosive Chiefs offense.  Guard David DeCastro is doubtful as well.  The Chiefs rolled the Chargers 38-28 and got explosive play after explosive play from Tyreke Hill and company.  The Chiefs have as many weapons as any team in the NFL.  The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS after allowing 400 or more yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.  Kansas City is 8-0 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 3 years.  Take Kansas City. 

6* Browns/Saints Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans -9 

The Key: The New Orleans Saints will be hungry to bounce back with a blowout victory over the Cleveland Browns today following their upset loss to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 1.  This is a Cleveland defense that gave up 472 total yards to the Steelers last week.  They were +5 in turnover differential and still could only get a tie out of it.  And they were lucky to even get that as they trailed 21-7 in the 4th quarter as their offense just couldn’t get going.  Then Josh Gordon had a late TD catch to tie.  But now Gordon has been ruled out for this game and the Browns are looking to trade him.  They have some the worst weapons in the NFL, and there’s no way Tyrod Taylor and company can hang with the Saints in this one.  And they’re missing their leader on defense in LB Christian Kirksey, who is the QB of their D.  The Browns are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games overall.  Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Browns are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC opponents.  The Browns are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games on field turf.  Take New Orleans.

7* Ohio State/TCU Top 25 *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU +14 

The Key: TCU is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog under Gary Patterson.  And now Patterson is catching two touchdowns against Ohio State Saturday.  The Horned Frogs are licking their chops at the opportunity to face the Buckeyes.  Remember, a few years back Ohio State was the team that got into the four-team playoff to knock TCU out of it even though the Horned Frogs deserved to be in.  Patterson and company have not forgotten.  The Horned Frogs play too good defensively to not be competitive here.  And their offense is better than it’s getting credit for with Shawn Robinson at QB.  Even though this is technically a neutral field, it’s not far from TCU’s campus in Arlington and it will be a TCU-heavy crowd.  Take TCU. 

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115) 

The Key: The New York Yankees won 11-0 yesterday over the Blue Jays and should fare well again here Saturday with a win by 2 runs or more.  They have the edge on the mound and at the plate.  C.C. Sabathia is 7-6 with a 3.54 ERA in 26 starts this year, including 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 13 home starts.  Sabathia is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his last 4 starts against the Blue Jays, yielding just 3 earned runs in 22 innings.  Sean Reid-Foley is 1-3 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 4 starts this year.  One of those starts was against the Yankees on August 18th.  Reid-Foley yielded 8 runs, 6 earned, 3 homers and 10 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-11 loss to them.  He’ll get lit up again here.  Take New York on the Run Line. 

6* Boise State/Oklahoma State *CA$H COW* on Boise State ML +110 

The Key: Oklahoma State lost all of its stars on offense from last season.  The Cowboys won’t be that good on offense this season because of it.  But they haven’t been exposed yet because of the ease of their schedule getting to host both Missouri State as a 45-point favorite and South Alabama as a 30-point favorite.  But now they will get exposed against Boise State, which returns 16 starters this season and is the best Group of 5 team in the country.  The Broncos won 56-20 at Troy and 62-7 at home over UConn to prove they are for real.  Those are two better opponents than Oklahoma State has faced this season.  The offense is humming with 59 PPG and 617 YPG, and the defense is dynamite with 10 returning starters and allowing 13.5 PPG and 286 YPG thus far.  Brian Harsin is 10-2 ATS as an underdog in all games as a head coach.  Take Boise State on the Money Line.

6* Oklahoma/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +19 

The Key: Oklahoma is the flavor of the week right now with its 63-14 win over Florida Atlantic and 49-21 win over UCLA to open the season.  Iowa State has only played one game, and it was an ugly 3-13 loss at Iowa.  I think we’re getting a few too many points here with the Cyclones at home.  They are different animal on their home field and proved that they once again have a great defense by limiting Iowa to just 271 total yards.  They will be able to limit Oklahoma this week.  The Cyclones pulled the 38-31 upset in Oklahoma as 30-point underdogs last season.  They also only lost 24-34 at home to Oklahoma in 2016 as 21-point dogs.  This game will be closer than expected.  The Cyclones are 11-2 ATS in Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.  The Cyclones are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games played on a grass field.  The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Iowa State. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Rutgers ML +125 

The Key: Kansas just ended a 46-game road losing streak with a win at Central Michigan last week.  That followed up a ugly home loss to FCS opponent Nicholls State.  I think the Jayhawks are actually better on the road because they get away from home, where there’s a lot of negativity to surround the program.  Fans will be quick to boo them this week if it goes south again.  I think Rutgers is the more talented of these two teams.  They were beaten badly by Ohio State last week on the road, otherwise they wouldn’t be underdogs here.  Kansas is overvalued off its road win against a bad CMU team.  Rutgers is 33-16 ATS in its last 49 non-conference road games.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Jayhawks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.  Kansas is also 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win.  Take Rutgers on the Money Line. 

6* Saturday NCAAF Dog of the Day on Georgia Southern +33 

The Key: I expect Clemson to be sleep-walking through this game Saturday morning.  They are coming off a huge 28-26 win at Texas A&M, and they have their ACC opener against Georgia Tech on deck next week.  They just want to get out of here with a win against Georgia Southern.  I think Georgia Southern will play this game closer than expected.  They beat South Carolina State 37-6 as 28.5-point favorites and UMass 34-13 as 1.5-point favorites.  They have 18 starters back from last year and have been notorious for giving Power 5 programs fits through the years with their triple option.  Georgia Southern lost in OT to Georgia in 2015, had a one-point road loss to NC State in 2014, and lost by only 4 points at Georgia Tech in 2014.  They also stunned Florida in Gainesville in 2013.  The Eagles are averaging 326 rushing yards per game this season and their triple-option will give Clemson a hard time here.  Take Georgia Southern. 

7* Rockies/Giants NL West *BAILOUT* on Colorado -131 

The Key: Fading the hapless Giants has been a very profitable move for me here down the stretch.  The Giants are 0-11 in their last 11 games overall.  They have scored 3 runs or fewer in 10 of those 11 losses.  Colorado’s Tyler Anderson should be able to shut them down as well.  Anderson has allowed just 3 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings with 16 strikeouts in his last 2 starts against the Giants this season.  Chris Stratton is 9-9 with a 4.82 ERA in 23 starts for the Giants this year.  Stratton is 1-1 with a 9.16 ERA and 2.25 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against the Rockies.  He has yielded 13 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings in his last 2 starts against the Rockies this season.  The Giants are 1-7 in Stratton’s last 8 starts.  Take Colorado. 

7* Ravens/Bengals AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore +1 

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are now 6-0 this season when you count the preseason.  They are not only winning, they are dominating.  They have won those 6 games by an average of nearly 17 points per game, including their 47-3 drubbing of the Bills last week.  They lost to Cincinnati in their season finale last year with a trip to the playoffs on the line.  It’s revenge time here for the Ravens, who are clearly the better team and simply just have to win this game to cover.  Take Baltimore. 

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Oakland A’s -1.5 (-115) 

The Key: The A’s should have no problem winning by at least 2 runs over the Orioles tonight thanks to their edge on the mound.  The Orioles have lost 6 straight and are 41-104 on the season now.  The A’s are only one game back of the Yankees for the 1st wild card spot and home-field advantage for that wild card game.  And the A’s are still trying to chase down the Astros in the AL West.  They’re doing a good job of it by going 6-0 in their last 6 games overall and winning 5 of those games by at least 2 runs.  Brett Anderson is 3-4 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 13 starts this year, including 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Dylan Bundy is 7-14 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 27 starts for the Orioles, including 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  The A’s are 23-2 vs. teams with losing records in the second half of the season this season.  They are winning by 3.9 RPG in this situation.  Take Oakland on the Run Line. 

7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta Braves -133 

The Key: The Atlanta Braves are in a pennant race and trying to clinch the NL East as soon as possible.  They have a lot more to play for right now than the San Francisco Giants, and it’s showing.  I have cashed in the Braves each of the past two nights.  The Giants are now 0-10 in their last 10 games overall.  Their offense has been atrocious.  They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 13 of their last 15 games overall.  Anibal Sanchez is 6-5 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  He is 4-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts against the Giants as well.  Take Atlanta. 

7* NL West Game of the Year on Arizona Diamondbacks -115 

The Key: This is a huge game for the Diamondbacks.  They are 3.5 games behind the Rockies for 1st place in the NL West.  They cannot afford to lose this game, and fortunately for them they have their ace on the mound to get the job done.  Zack Greinke is 13-9 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 29 starts this season.  He is 11-5 with a 3.91 ERA in 28 lifetime starts against the Rockies.  He has allowed 4 runs or fewer in 11 consecutive starts against Colorado, including 3 runs or fewer in 9 of those.  Antonio Senzatela is 2-4 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 9 starts, this season, including 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last three starts.  Senzatela has never beaten the Diamondbacks, going 0-2 with an 11.33 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in two lifetime starts against them.  He has yielded 13 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in those 2 starts.  Colorado is 1-10 off a win by 10 runs or more over the last 3 seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 7-2 in Greinke’s last 9 road starts.  Take Arizona. 

7* Rams/Raiders MNF *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -5.5 

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams should be one of the best teams in the NFL this season, parlaying 2017 Coach of the Year Sean McVay’s big season last year into another great one this year.  They added Brandon Cooks and now have as many weapons as any team in the NFL offensively.  Defensively, they added DT Suh and CB’s Peters and Talib.  They should also have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Raiders are in transition in Jon Gruden’s first season and won’t be that good this year.  They traded away their best defensive player in Kahlil Mack, and many teammates weren’t happy about it.  I just don’t think the Raiders have the offensive punch to hang with the Rams, or the defense to slow them down in Week 1 here.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Chicago White Sox +116 

The Key: The Royals don’t deserve to be favored in this matchup.  They are just 47-95 on the season.  Jake Junis hasn’t fared well against the White Sox, going 1-1 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them.  Conversely, Lucas Giolito has never lost to the Royals, going 3-0 with a. 2.01 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them.  The White Sox are 5-0 in those 5 starts.  Take Chicago. 

7* NFL Game of the Week on Denver Broncos -2.5 

The Key: The Denver Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2018.  They were 3rd in total defense last year and only got better this offseason with the addition of the 5th overall pick in Bradley Chubb.  Teams are going to regret passing up on him.  The pass rush and secondary are the strengths of the Broncos, and that makes this a great matchup for them against a suspect Seattle offensive line.  Russell Wilson is in line for a rough game Sunday in Denver.  The Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season under head coach Pete Carroll.  Take Denver. 

6* NFC Total of the Day on Panthers/Cowboys UNDER 42.5

The Key: Two sub-par offenses meet two great defenses in this matchup between Carolina and Dallas.  The Cowboys managed 22.1 PPG last year on offense while the Panthers averaged 22.9 PPG.  Both modest numbers.  And I believe the Cowboys to be worse off on offense this season with the losses of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, plus a banged-up offensive line to open the season.  The Cowboys only gave up 20.7 PPG last year and there’s reason to believe they will be even better this season since they have more depth along the defensive line, and get a healthy Sean Lee for at least the start of the season.  The Panthers gave up 21.1 PPG last year and have consistently been one of the NFL’s top stop units.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Cowboys last 26 road games.  The UNDER is 13-6-1 in Panthers last 20 games on grass.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games during Week 1.  Take the UNDER. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia Phillies +155 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Phillies today against the Mets.  The Phillies are fighting to make the playoffs, while the Mets are playing for nothing but pride.  So the situation is a good one for the Phillies.  And Vincent Velasquez is better than he’s getting credit for with this line.  Velasquez is 3-5 with a 3.19 ERA in 13 road starts this year.  He is 1-3 with a 3.78 ERA in 7 lifetime starts against the Mets.  New York is only 2-9 in DeGrom’s last 11 starts vs. NL East teams.  The Mets are 5-14 in DeGrom’s last 19 home starts.  Take Philadelphia. 

6* AFC Total of the Day on Bengals/Colts UNDER 48

The Key: I’m shocked to see this total so high when these were two of the worst offensive teams in the NFL last season.  The Bengals averaged just 18.1 PPG and 280 YPG while the Colts managed just 16.4 PPG and 285 YPG.  Of course, the Colts should be better with Andrew Luck this year, but he won’t come out too sharp in Week 1, which is his first start in nearly two seasons.  The Bengals have a solid defense and the Colts have an improving stop unit.  The Colts are 11-1 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.  The Bengals are 12-3 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 years.  Cincinnati is 27-11 UNDER in its last 38 road games with a total of 45.5 or higher.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Colts last 8 games overall.  The UNDER is 37-18 in Colts last 55 home games.  The UNDER is 13-6 in Bengals last 19 road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Indianapolis.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Penn State/Pitt ABC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +7.5 

The Key: Penn State needing overtime in Week 1 to beat Appalachian State 45-38 as 24-point favorites is a telling sign of things to come for the Nittany Lions.  They lost a ton of playmakers on offense, and Trace McSorley was fortunate to bring them back for a win in the final seconds and in OT.  But the more concerning thing is a defense that gave up 38 points to the Mountaineers and returns just 3 starters from last year.  Pitt doesn’t have an explosive offense, but even they should be able to move the football and score points on this Penn State defense.  The Panthers do have a great defense, however, with 9 returning starters.  This should be Pat Narduzzi’s best defense yet in his 4th year at Pitt.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Clemson/Texas A&M ESPN *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M +12 

The Key: I like the fact that Jimbo Fisher knows Clemson well after coaching against them every year in the ACC at Florida State.  Fisher knows what it takes to beat Dabo Swinney and company.  And Fisher stepped into a great situation at Texas A&M with 16 returning starters, including QB Kellen Mond, who was offered by Clemson coming out of high school.  The Aggies made easy work of Northwestern State 59-7 last Thursday, outgaining them by 507 total yards.  And now they’ve had a few extra days to prepare for Clemson, which played on Saturday.  This will be the toughest game of the regular season for the Tigers as the 12th Man at Kyle Field is no joke.  The Aggies are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 September games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M. 

6* Astros/Red Sox American League *CA$H COW* on Houston +115 

The Key: The Red Sox have basically already wrapped up the AL East.  The Astros have a lot more to play for right now as they are trying to fend off the A’s for 1st place in the AL West.  I like the price we are getting with the Astros not only because of the situation, but also because of their huge edge on the mound.  Charlie Morton is 13-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 26 starts this year.  He is clearly the better starter over Eduardo Rodriquez.  The Astros have turned it on down the stretch, going 13-3 in their last 16 games overall.  And Houston is an impressive 44-17 in its last 61 road games.  The Astros are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  Take Houston. 

7* Georgia/South Carolina SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina +10.5 

The Key: South Carolina finally has a team that is capable of competing with Georgia.  The Gamecocks believe they are good enough to challenge the Bulldogs for an SEC East title this season.  They get their chance to prove it on the field at home Saturday in what will be a hostile environment.  The Gamecocks are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  South Carolina is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Gamecocks are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  This is the best team that Will Muschamp has had yet at South Carolina, especially offensively with a great QB and two amazing playmakers at RB & WR.  Take South Carolina. 

6* Saturday NCAAF Dog of the Day on Buffalo +4.5 

The Key: I believe Buffalo has a better team than Temple this season and that will show on the field Saturday.  Buffalo has 14 returning starters and one of the more underrated QB/WR combos in the country with Tyree Jackson and Anthony Johnson, who had 76 receptions for 1,356 yards and 14 touchdowns last year.  The Bulls rolled Delaware State 48-10 in their opener.  Temple lost 17-19 at home to Villanova as 14.5-point favorites, a sign of bad things to come for the Owls this year.  They have just 12 returning starters and lose each of their top two receivers from a year ago.  Not only did they get beat by Villanova, they got dominated statistically by getting outgained by 154 yards.  Their offense is clearly in trouble after amassing just 251 total yards against Villanova.  The Bulls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 September games.  The Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 September games.  Temple is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. MAC opponents.  Take Buffalo. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Kansas +4 

The Key: Central Michigan is a rebuilding team this year that returns only 10 starters and loses stud QB Shane Morris.  Their game against Kentucky wasn’t as close as the 20-35 final would indicate last week.  They were outgained by 172 yards in that matchup.  Kansas was upset 23-26 by Nicholls State in overtime, but that’s a great FCS program and the Jayhawks were single-digit favorites.  Nicholls State has given Georgia and Texas A&M fits in recent years, so it wasn’t much of an upset and it’s getting overblown.  This is still the best team that David Beatty has had at Kansas yet with 19 returning starters in his 4th season.  I believe they go on the road and get an ‘upset’ victory against this inexperienced Chippewas squad.  Take Kansas. 

7* TCU/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on TCU -22 

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have owned the SMU Mustangs in recent years.  TCU has won the last 5 meetings by more than 31 PPG on average.  And that should be about the margin of victory for this year’s matchup.  TCU is another Big 12 title contender with an elite defense and an improved offense under a new QB.  And SMU is certainly going to take a step back now that Chad Morris is gone after improving dramatically under him and actually making a bowl last year.  But they lost that bowl by 41 points with Sonny Dykes at the helm, and they were blasted by 23 points at North Texas in Week 1 in Dykes’ first official first game as head coach last week.  The Mustangs are in for a rude awakening tonight.  Take TCU. 

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Chicago White Sox -112 

The Key: I believe the White Sox have a big edge on the mound tonight over the Angels.  Carlos Rodon has been a huge bright spot for the Sox this season.  He is 6-4 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 15 starts this year, including 3-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 7 home starts.  Rodon is 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against the Angels.  Felix Pena is 1-4 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 13 starts for the Angels this season.  Los Angeles is 2-7 in Pena’s last 9 starts, including 1-4 in his last 5 road starts.  The White Sox are 9-1 in Rodon’s last 10 starts during game 1 of a series.  Chicago is 7-1 in its last 8 games following a loss.  Take Chicago. 

7* Falcons/Eagles NFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45 

The Key: The Falcons and Eagles both made deep runs in the playoffs last year due to their defenses, not their offenses.  The Eagles gave up just 18.2 PPG last season while the Falcons surrendered just 19.1 PPG.  I believe this total to be too high tonight.  The Falcons regressed big-time on offense last year, averaging just 21.6 PPG.  That was due to losing coordinator Kyle Shanahan.  The Eagles weren’t nearly as good on offense once Carson Wentz went down last year.  Wentz remains out to start the season, leaving the job to backup Nick Foles, who was awful in the preseason and has been awful in basically every game other than the Super Bowl.  Go figure.  And top wideout Alshon Jeffrey is out with a shoulder injury right now, as is fellow WR Mack Hollins.  The Eagles are limited on weapons in Week 1.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Falcons last 7 games overall.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Falcons last 7 vs. NFC teams.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 home games.  The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings.  Take the UNDER. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on San Diego Padres +150 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the San Diego Padres today against the Cincinnati Reds.  The Reds shouldn’t be favored this heavily over anyone.  Luis Castillo is 8-11 with a 4.83 ERA in 27 starts this year.  That isn’t much better than San Diego starter Eric Lauer, who is 5-7 with a 5.01 ERA in 19 starts.  Lauer is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in one lifetime start against Cincinnati, which came back on June 2nd this season as he earned the victory in an 8-2 Padres’ win.  Castillo is 0-1 with a 5.90 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against the Padres.  San Diego is 9-2 off a shutout loss to a division rival over the last 2 seasons.  Cincinnati is 28-58 after scoring 2 runs over less over the last 2 seasons.  The Padres had yesterday off while the Reds did not.  The Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games following an off day.  The Reds are 3-11 in their last 14 games overall.  Take San Diego. 

7* Cubs/Brewers NL Central *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -113 

The Key: The Brewers have a chance to sweep the Cubs and pull within one game of Chicago in the NL Central.  I look for them to take full advantage today.  Jhoulys Chacin is 14-5 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 29 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Chacin is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts against the Cubs this year, pitching 13 shutout innings with 17 strikeouts.  Jose Quintana is 11-9 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 26 starts for the Cubs.  He gave up 5 earned runs and 3 homers in a 0-7 loss to the Brewers in his last start against them on August 14th.  The Cubs are 0-4 in Quintana’s last 4 road starts.  The Brewers are 8-2 in Chacin’s last 10 home starts.  Take Milwaukee. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-140) 

The Key: The Twins are just trying out all their prospects right now and it’s not going too well for them.  They are just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall with all 8 losses coming by 2 runs or more, and 7 of them by 3-plus runs.  The Astros have been on a tear since getting Jose Altuve back.  They are 10-3 in their last 13 games with 8 of those wins coming by 2 runs or more.  With their edge on the mound tonight, they should win by 2 runs or more as well.  Trevor May will be making his first start of the season for the Twins. Justin Verlander is 13-9 with a. 2.78 ERA and 0.95 WHIp in 29 starts for the Astros.  Verlander is 18-9 with a 3.06 ERA in 35 lifetime starts against the Twins.  He pitched 7 shutout innings in a 2-0 victory in his lone start against the Twins in 2018 back on April 9th.  Take Houston on the Run Line. 

6* VA Tech/FSU ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia Tech +7.5 

The Key: It’s going to take some time for Florida State to get used to new head coach Willie Taggart’s systems.  They are talented on offense and will eventually be great, but I’m expecting plenty of mistakes form them in the opener.  And defensively is where they have the biggest questions because they return just 4 starters on D.  I trust Justin Fuente, who enters is 3rd season in Blacksburg and has already guided the Hokies to 10 and 9-win seasons in his first 2 years.  He has 12 returning starters to work with in 2018, including 7 on offense.  Bud Foster’s defense gave up just 14.8 PPG last year, so even though they lose some guys, they will be good again because they are every year.  The Seminoles are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games.  FSU is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Hokies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Yankees/A’s American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland -121 

The Key: The A’s are fighting to win the AL West or get a wild card right now.  They face the team in the Yankees that they would play in the wild card round if the season ended today.  I think they want to make a statement in Game 1 of this series tonight.  Trevor Cahill has been unhittable at home this year for the A’s, going 4-0 with a 0.85 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 8 home starts while yielding just 5 earned runs in 52 2/3 innings.  C.C. Sabathia is 2-3 with a. 4.27 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 11 road starts for the Yankees this year.  The A’s are 4-0 in Cahill’s last 4 home starts.  Oakland is 47-21 in its last 68 games overall.  The Yankees are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a. Winning record.  Take Oakland. 

7* Miami/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -3 

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes won 10 games last year and are a team on the rise under Mark Richt.  They have 14 returning starters, including their starting QB and an elite defense.  LSU is headed in the wrong direction under Ed Orgeron.  And things aren’t getting any better for him this season with just 10 returning starters.  LSU is 1-8 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons.  Orgeron is 4-13 ATS in September games as a head coach.  LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 vs. ACC teams.  Take Miami. 

6* Sunday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Mets/Giants UNDER 7.5 

The Key: I’m surprised to see this total so high today.  Both the Giants and Mets lack offensive punch.  And Noah Syndergaard is one of the best starters in baseball.  Syndergaard is 2-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 5 lifetime starts against the Giants.  Chris Stratton is coming off an 8 innings scoreless outing against the Diamondbacks.  He has a 2.84 ERA in his lone lifetime start against the Mets.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 games overall.  They are averaging 2.9 RPG and giving up just 1.3 RPG in those 7 games.  The Mets have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games.  Syndergaard is 9-1 UNDER vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse this season.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on SMU/North Texas OVER 71 

The Key: Two high-powered offenses go toe-to-toe Saturday when SMU takes on North Texas.  These teams played last year with SMU winning 54-32 for 86 combined points.  I think we see a similar combined point total in the 2018 rematch.  SMU put up 37.8 PPG last year.  They do lose head coach Chad Morris, but bring in another offensive-minded Sonny Dykes to take his place.  Dykes and his Air Raid offense are a perfect match for junior QB Ben Hicks, who threw for 3,569 yards and 33 touchdowns last year.  North Texas averaged 35.5 PPG last year and now welcomes back 9 starters on offense.  That includes junior QB Mason Fine, who threw for 4,052 yards and 31 touchdowns a year ago.  This is going to be a fun game to watch with Fine and Hicks trading blows for 60 minutes.  The OVER is 7-2 in Mustangs last 9 road games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Mean Green last 4 home games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Mean Green last 7 non-conference games.  North Texas is 6-0 OVER as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.  Take the OVER. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Braves -137 

The Key: The Braves have lost 3 in a row and will be hungry for a victory here today against Pittsburgh.  I like their chances with Kevin Gausman on the mound.  Guastman is 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA in 5 starts for the Braves since being acquired from the Orioles.  He fired 8 shutout innings in a victory over the Pirates in Pittsburgh on August 21st.  Chris Archer hasn’t paid off for the Pirates in their trade for him from Tampa Bay.  He is 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Washington/Auburn Top 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +2.5 

The Key: The Washington Huskies are one of the best teams in the country in 2018.  They return 17 starters from a team that won 10 games last year.  This is a statement game for them taking down an SEC team in Auburn on a neutral field.  The Huskies have the best unit on the field, which is their defense that gave up 16.1 PPG last year and returns 9 starters.  Their ability to shut down Jarrett Stidham and this Auburn offense will be the key to victory.  The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  Auburn is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games.  Take Washington. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Northern Illinois +10 

The Key: Northern Illinois is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games against the Big Ten.  The Huskies have been notorious for pulling off upsets against this conference throughout the years.  They even beat this same Iowa team on the road in 2013.  They beat Northwestern and Nebraska both since 2014, and they only lost by 7 to Ohio State as 34-point underdogs in 2015.  Iowa is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games against MAC teams.  I like this NIU squad that returns 14 starters.  They have everyone back on the offensive line to protect for talented sophomore QB Marcus Childers, who is coming off a great freshman campaign.  Iowa will be without its two starting offensive tackles for this game with suspensions.  They are also missing two key defensive linemen.  They already lose 6 of their top 8 tacklers on defense.  The Huskies are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 road games.  Take Northern Illinois. 

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State +24 

The Key: Utah State figures to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  The Aggies return 18 starts and are more than capable of keeping this game close against Michigan State.  I think the Spartans come in overrated after a 10-win season last year that nobody could have predicted.  They won 10 games in spite of an offense that managed just 24.5 PPG.  That offense won’t be much better this season.  They do have another good defense again, but asking them to lay this many points in the opener to a game Utah State team is too much.  The Aggies are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 Friday games.  The Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  Take Utah State. 

7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Nationals -110 

The Key: Tanner Roark has been brilliant since the All-Star Break for the Nationals.  He is 5-1 with a 1.61 ERA in his last 7 starts with 37 strikeouts and only 5 walks.  One of those starts came against Milwaukee on July 25th as he pitched 8 shutout innings with 11 strikeouts in a 7-3 victory.  Roark is now 4-1 with a 2.32 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts against the Brewers.  Milwaukee played yesterday in a hard-fought 2-1 victory over the Reds in extra innings.  The Nationals had yesterday off and will be the fresher team.  The Nationals are 6-1 in Roark’s last 7 starts.  Take Washington. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-125) 

The Key: The Red Sox scored 22 combined runs in their 2 wins over the Marlins the past 2 days.  They should stay hot at the plate against the White Sox and Lucas Giolito, who is 3-5 with an 8.18 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in 12 home starts this year.  Rick Porcello is 9-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 15 road starts for the Red Sox, who clearly have a big edge on the mound in this one and should win by 2 runs or more.  Boston is 17-2 off a 2-game span where its bullpen threw 9 innings or more this season, and it is winning by 2.5 RPG in this spot.  The Red Sox are 43-10 in their last 53 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  The White Sox are 3-10 in Giolito’s last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Red Sox are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.  Take Boston on the Run Line. 

6* Northwestern/Purdue Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Purdue -1 

The Key: Purdue still enters 2017 getting no respect after making a bowl in Jeff Brohm’s first year.  They are just 1-point home favorites here against the Northwestern Wildcats.  And they have 13 starters back from that team, including 9 on offense.  This should be one of the best offenses in the Big Ten.  Northwestern has a great defense but its offense leaves a lot to be desired, especially with the loss of NU’s all-time leading rusher in Justin Jackson.  I believe Clayton Thorson is overrated and won’t be hitting on all cylinders in Game 1 as he returns from a torn ACL.  The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.  They’ll want revenge from a 23-13 loss at Northwestern last year.  Take Purdue. 

7* Mariners/Padres Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle +101 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Seattle Mariners are road underdogs to the San Diego Padres today.  They lost Game 1 2-1 yesterday and will be hungry to bounce back with a victory tonight.  The Mariners certainly need wins more than the Padres do right now as they are trying to make the postseason.  The Padres are 17-45 in their last 62 games, including 6-22 in their last 28 home games.  Erasmo Ramirez is 1-0 with a 1.12 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his last 3 starts despite facing 3 of the best lineups in baseball in the Astros, Dodgers and Diamondbacks.  Joey Lucchesi is 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA in his last 2 starts while yielding 7 earned runs in 10 innings.  The Mariners are 9-2 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  Take Seattle. 

7* Diamondbacks/Giants NL West *BAILOUT* on San Francisco -106 

The Key: The Giants are 7 games back of 1st place in the NL West.  They still believe they are alive, and they are playing like it.  The Giants have now won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 after knocking off the 1st-place Diamondbacks 2-0 last night.  They really need to sweep this series, and now they have their ace going in Game 2 tonight.  Madison Bumgarner is 5-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 15 starts this year, including 3-2 with a 1.71 ERA in 7 home starts.  Bumgarner sports a 2.60 ERA and 1.11. WHIP in 31 lifetime starts against Arizona.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last 5 starts against the Diamondbacks.  Clay Buchholz is getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight for what he has done in limited action this season.  Arizona is 4-14 when revenging a shutout loss over the last 3 seasons. The Giants are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.  Take San Francisco. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -179 

The Key: I’ll lay the price with the Houston Astros today due to their edge on the mound over the Oakland A’s.  Gerrit Cole is 11-5 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 26 starts this season with 226 strikeouts in 164 2/3 innings.  Cole is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Oakland.  Brett Anderson is 3-3 with a 3.47 ERA in 12 starts for the A’s this season, including 2-2 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 8 road starts.  Anderson is 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts vs. Houston.  He faced the Astros once this season and allowed 9 runs and 13 base runners in 3 innings of a 2-16 loss back on May 7th.  Houston is 14-1 off 6 consecutive AL West games this season.  The Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 games overall.  The A’s are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings, including 9-19 in the last 28 meetings in Houston.  The Astros are 7-2 in Cole’s last 9 home starts.  Take Houston. 

7* Cardinals/Rockies NL *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Louis +136 

The Key: We are getting a great price on the St. Louis Cardinals today.  They are 21-7 in their last 28 games overall and should not be this big of underdogs.  They are coming off a loss yesterday, but are now 15-3 in their last 18 games following a loss.  St. Louis is 9-1 in its last 10 road games.  The Cardinals are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Cardinals are 5-0 in Gomber’s last 5 starts.  Gomber is 2-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his last 5 starts, and 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Tyler Anderson is 0-2 with a 7.56 ERA in his last 3 starts for the Rockies.  Take St. Louis. 

6* Hawaii/Colorado State MWC *CA$H COW* on Hawaii +17 

The Key: Colorado State is one of the least experienced teams in the country this season.  They rank 130th in terms of experience and have just 9 returning starters this year.  I think this is a hefty price for them to pay in their opener against a conference opponent in Hawaii.  The Warriors will be trying to win this game for the people of Hawaii, who are having to endure a Hurricane right now and all that comes with it.  This is a chance for them to get away to the mainland and focus on football for a day.  They went to the mainland and won their opener last season against UMass.  Take Hawaii. 

6* Saturday NFLX *Total* Annihilator on 49ers/Colts OVER 42

7* Interleague Game of the Month on Philadelphia Phillies -115 

The Key: After losing 5 of their last 6 coming in in the midst of a pennant race, the Phillies will be hungry for a victory here in Toronto today.  The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 during Game 2 of a series.  The Blue Jays are 2-10 in Sanchez’s last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 1-7 in Sanchez’s last 8 starts during Game 2 of a a series.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* NFLX Game of the Year on Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5 

6* Cards/Rockies NL *CA$H COW* on St. Louis -105 

The Key: The Cardinals are on a 13-2 tear that has come against many of the top teams in baseball.  They simply cannot be stopped right now and I like the price we are getting with them at -105 against the Rockies tonight.  The Cards are rested after having Thursday off while the Rockies played Thursday against the Padres.  Miles Mikolas is 13-3 with a 2.80 ERA this season.  He is the better starter in this matchup.  The Cards have gone 10-1 in their last 11 road games and 5-0 in Mikolas’ last 5 starts.  Take St. Louis. 

6* Eagles/Browns NFLX *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 41.5

7* AL Central Game of the Month on Detroit Tigers -131 

The Key: The Detroit Tigers have a big edge on the mound tonight over the Chicago White Sox.  Matt Boyd has been great at home this year, where he’s 5-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 11 starts.  James Shields has been awful on the road, going 1-6 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.  Boyd fired a complete game shutout in his last start against the White Sox, giving up just 2 base runners in 9 innings of a 12-0 victory.  Shields has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 4 starts against the Tigers.  The White Sox are 6-22 in Shields’ last 28 road starts.  The Tigers are 8-2 in Boyd’s last 10 home starts.  Chicago is 2-18 in Shields’ last 20 road starts vs. a team that averages 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game.  Take Detroit. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Oakland A’s -150 

The Key: The Oakland A’s are the hottest team in baseball.  They are 42-14 in their last 56 games overall and aren’t getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They have outscored Texas 15-0 in winning each of the first two games in this series.  Edwin Jackson should be able to shut down the Rangers as well.  Jackson is 4-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 10 starts this year, 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 5 home starts, and 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Mike Minor is 4-4 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 10 road starts for the Rangers this year.  The A’s are 5-0 in Jackson’s last 5 starts.  Jackson is 8-0 vs. an AL team with an OBP of .330 or worse this season.  Take Oakland. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Oakland A’s -1.5 (-105) 

The Key: The Oakland A’s have a big edge on the mound tonight with Brett Anderson over Ariel Jurado.  Anderson is 2-3 with a 3.90 ERA in 11 starts this year, 0-1 with a 3.57 ERA in 3 home starts, and 0-9 with a 0.92 ERA in his last 3 starts.  He has yielded just 2 earned runs and 12 base runners in 19 2/3 innings in his last 3 outings.  Anderson beat Texas 15-3 in his last start against them on July 23rd as he yielded just 2 earned runs in 6 innings to get the victory.  Ariel Jurado has had a rough go of it in his brief major league career.  He is 2-2 with a 6.41 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 5 starts this year, including 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA in his last 2 outings.  He has just 11 strikeouts compared to 6 homers given up in 26 2/3 innings this season.  The A’s are 14-0 in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record, winning by 4.3 RPG on average.  The A’s are 6-0 in Anderson’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Oakland on the Run Line. 

7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120) 

The Key: The Dodgers have a huge edge on the mound today with Clayton Kershaw over Roenis Elias.  They should have no problem winning by at least 2 runs in this matchup.  Kershaw is 5-5 with a 2.47 EAR and 1.02 WHIP in 18 starts, 2-2 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 8 road starts, and 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Elias is 0-0 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in his lone start this season.  He’s not ready to do battle in this pressure-packed situation with Kershaw.  The Dodgers hung 11 runs on the Mariners in Game 1 of this series and should put up another big number off Elias and company in this one.  Elias is 0-7 in home games vs. teams who average 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game in his career.  Kershaw is 37-7 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners per game on base over the last 2 seasons.  The Dodgers are winning by 2.5 RPG in this spot.  Take Los Angels on the Run Line. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on San Francisco Giants -144 

The Key: The Giants have a big edge on the mound today with Madison Bumgarner over Matt Harvey.  Bumgarner is 4-4 with a 2.71 ERA in 13 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last 3 outings. Harvey is 5-7 with a 4.89 ERA in 20 starts, including 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Harvey has never beaten the Giants, going 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against them.  Bumgarner is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Reds, yielding just 3 earned runs in 15 innings.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Jags/Vikings NFLX *CA$H COW* on Minnesota -4 

7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta Braves -128 

The Key: The Atlanta Braves have won 5 of their last 6 but will be looking to revenge a Game 1 loss to the Rockies in this series in which they blew a save in the 9th inning.  They have scored at least 5 runs in all 5 wins during this stretch.  I like their chances of getting after Kyle Freeland, who is 3-5 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 13 road starts this year.  Sean Newcomb is 10-5 with a 3.40 ERA in 23 starts overall, and 4-2 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 10 home starts.  Newcomb pitched 6 shutout innings with 9 strikeouts in a 4-0 win at Colorado in his only start against the Rockies in 2018.  Freeland is 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against the Braves, all of which have come in the past 2 seasons.  Atlanta is 10-3 after a game where its bullpen blew a save this season.  The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.  The Braves are 4-0 in Newcomb’s last 4 starts.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Bills/Browns AFC *CA$H COW* on Cleveland -3 

6* Eagles/Patriots Super Bowl Rematch on UNDER 43 

7* Nats/Cardinals NL *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Louis -118 

The Key: The Cardinals have now won 8 straight games and cannot be tamed right now.  The Nationals have gone 2-7 in their last 9 games and just can’t seem to get it turned around.  I like the price with the Cardinals tonight as small home favorites as they extend their winning streak to 9 games.  Luke Weaver has allowed exactly 2 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts and is pitching well coming in.  Tanner Roark is also pitching well, but he cannot seem to figure out the Cardinals.  He is 1-2 with a 6.92 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against St. Louis.  The Nationals are 8-21 in their last 29 road games.  Washington is 5-17 in Roark’s last 22 starts with 4 days of rest.  The Cardinals are 37-16 in their last 53 home meetings with the Nationals, and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings overall.  Take St. Louis. 

7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-115) 

The Key: The Atlanta Braves have won each of the first 3 games of this series with the Marlins by 8, 5, and 4 runs.  They should have no problem winning by multiple runs again tonight thanks to their edge on the mound.  Kevin Gausman is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts and seems rejuvenated since getting traded to the Braves.  He gave up just 1 run and 6 hits in 8 innings with 8 strikeouts in a 10-1 victory over the Brewers last time out on August 10th.  Jose Urena is 3-12 with a 4.74 ERA in 23 starts for the Marlins this year, including 2-3 with a 5.28 ERA in 8 road starts.  Urena is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in 3 starts against the Braves in 2018, yielding 12 earned runs in 16 innings.  Miami is 4-26 in road games against a team that wins 54% to 62% of their games in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  It is losing by 2.6 RPG in this spot.  The Marlins are 1-11 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a right-handed starter.  Take Atlanta on the Run Line. 

7* Mariners/A’s AL West *BAILOUT* on Seattle -123 

The Key: The Seattle Mariners have the edge on the mound tonight with James Paxton over Mike Fiers.  Paxton is 10-5 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 23 starts with 175 strikeouts in 139 innings.  The left-hander has never lost to the A’s, going 3-0 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts against them.  He fired 7 shutout innings with 16 strikeouts against the A’s in his lone start against them in 2018 back on May 2nd.  Mike Fiers is 1-1 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts against the Mariners.  Seattle is 11-2 following a one-run loss this season.  The Mariners are 8-3 in Paxton’s last 11 road starts.  The Mariners are 19-7 in their last 26 meetings in Oakland.  Take Seattle.

7* Interleague Game of the Month on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-108) 

The Key: Considering the huge edge the Diamondbacks have on the rubber tonight over the Rangers, it’s easy to see how they’re going to win by multiple runs in this matchup.  Zack Greinke is 12-7 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 24 starts this year, including 1-2 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Greinke sports a 2.67 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 13 lifetime starts against the Rangers.  Bartolo Colon is 6-10 with a 5.31 ERA in 21 starts this year, 3-4 with a 5.98 ERA in 10 home starts, and 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA in his last 3 starts.  He is also 1-3 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts against the Diamondbacks.  He has allowed 14 runs in 15 innings in his last 3 starts against Arizona.  Colon is 3-16 as a dog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons, and his teams are losing by 3.7 RPG in this spot.  The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Greinke’s last 6 road starts.  Take Arizona on the Run Line. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on New York Yankees -1.5 (-110) 

The Key: The Yankees have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games overall with 4 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs.  They should win by multiple runs again today over the Texas Rangers thanks to their edge on the mound in this one.  C.C. Sabathia is 6-4 with a 3.49 ERA in 21 starts this year, including 4-1 with a 2.68 ERA in 11 home starts.  Martin Perez is one of the worst starters in the league.  He is 2-4 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in 10 starts this year.  Perez sports an 8.52 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 3 previous starts against the Yankees as well.  The Yankees should score early and often in this one and hold on to a big lead with one of the best bullpens in baseball.  Take New York on the Run Line. 

6* Vikings/Broncos NFLX *CA$H COW* on Denver +1 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on New York Yankees -1.5 (-120) 

The Key: Off a bad loss to the Rangers yesterday, the Yankees should respond with a win by multiple runs Saturday to cover the run line.  Lance Lynn has been pitching very well since being traded to the Yankees. He is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Lynn is also 5-2 with a 2.83 ERA in 9 home starts this year.  Drew Hutchison will be making just his 2nd start of the season.  He is 0-1 with an 18.00 ERA after yielding 6 earned runs and 9 base runners in 3 innings of a 6-9 home loss to the Baltimore Orioles on August 5th.  Now he’s up against this potent Yankees’ lineup that is on fire right now in scoring at least 7 runs in 4 of their last 5 games coming in.  The Yankees are 58-20 in their last 78 home games.  Take New York on the Run Line. 

6* Lions/Raiders NFLX *BAILOUT* on Detroit +3