Sports Picks & Predictions

6* MLB Line Mistake on Mets +1.5 (-133)
The Key: Oddsmakers have made a mistake giving us the Mets +1.5 at an affordable price. The Dodgers are struggling, having lost 6 of their last 7. They have won by more than 1 run just 5 times in 18 games this season. The Mets, meanwhile, have won or lost by a single run in 12 of 17 games. The Dodgers have lost or won by 1 run in 7 of 9 road games this season while the Mets have won or lost by a single run in 8 of 9 home games. Clayton Kershaw is a fantastic starter, but hasn't had ace stuff in his last 2 starts and the Dodgers lost both as a result. They won his start prior to those two but only by 1 run. The Mets are 6-1 in Jon Niese's last 7 starts. They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, 5-0 in his last 5 series-opening starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts on regular rest (4 days). The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite and 0-4 in their last 4 series openers. Kershaw has a good track record against the Dodgers, but he likely won't get much run support with as well as Niese has been dealing. LA is scoring just 2.5 runs per game off southpaw starters this season. Keep in mind the Mets are scoring 5.0 runs per game off lefty starters. Bet the Mets on the run line.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Blue Jays -108
The Key: The Blue Jays are showing value at this price with the reigning NL Cy Young winner on the hill. R.A. Dickey got off to a slow start but has since settled in winning his last 2 starts while giving up only 1 run in 12 1/3 innings. Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez hasn't been nearly as sharp, giving up 8 runs in his last 2 starts spanning 11 2/3 innings. Dickey delivered a complete-game 1-hit shutout when he faced Baltimore last season. Dickey also shut down the O's when he saw them in 2010, giving up just 1 run in 7 innings. Gonzalez has an ERA of 4.73 in 2 career starts versus Toronto, giving up 7 runs in 13 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays went down yesterday but are 11-4 in their last 15 games following a loss. The Orioles are 5-11 in their last 16 games following a win. Take Toronto.

6* NBA "Total" Bailout on Grizzlies/Clippers Under 181.5
The Key: Memphis allowed the Clippers to shoot 55.4% from the field in Game 1, but I fully expect it to tighten the screws here. The Grizzlies finished the regular season ranked 3rd in the NBA in field goal percentage defense, allowing only 43.5% shooting, and they had held the Clippers to 46.2% shooting or worse in each of the previous three meetings. Each of those 3 came in under this number as a result. In fact, prior to Game 1, 6 of the previous 7 meetings between these two had come in under the posted total. Home teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points if they average 99.0 points or more per game and are coming off a blowout win of 20 points or more are 54-23 under since 1996. This system is 14-3 under the last 3 seasons and a perfect 3-0 under this season. Also, the Grizzlies are 13-4 under the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent. Take the Under.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Padres +111
The Key: The Brewers have won 7 in a row, but don't expect their winning ways to continue out on the road where they are 2-3 and scoring only 2.8 runs per game. The Padres have struggled at home in the early going, but they are typically a solid home club (42-39 at home last season). Besides, the Brewers are 3-14 in their last 17 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400 and 6-14 in the last 20 meetings in San Diego. The Padres are 20-8 in their last 28 home games versus a team with a losing road record, 12-3 in their last 15 versus the National League Central and 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Padres at a nice price.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bulls +5
The Key: Motivated by a disappointing performance in the first game of the series, Chicago will bounce back strong tonight. Prior to the Game 1 loss, the Bulls had won or lost by fewer than 4.5 points in 4 straight and 10 of their last 11 meetings with the Nets. The Bulls won 3 of 4 meetings during the regular season so they clearly have what it takes to even this series. Chicago has been extremely resilient since Tom Thibodeau took over. In fact, it is 50-31 ATS under his watch after 1 or more consecutive losses. It is also worth noting that teams headed up by PJ Calesimo are 1-12 ATS in home games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since 1996. His teams have lost by an average of 7.0 points in these spots. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Nets Under 183.5
The Key: The Bulls allowed Brooklyn to shoot 55.8% from the field in Game 1. That was an uncharacteristic performance to say the least considering the Bulls entered the playoffs ranked 9th in the NBA in field goal percentage defense, holding its foes to 44.3%. I expect a much better defensive effort from Chicago tonight and for this one to finish under as a result. The Bulls are 16-4 under the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent. Chicago is also 19-6 under the last 3 seasons after allowing 105 points or more in their last game. Prior to Game 1, these two had combined to finish under the current total in 5 straight. Take the Under.

7* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Spurs -8.5
The Key: The Lakers closed the regular season on a 5-game win streak that included a 91-86 win over San Antonio. They lost the season's first 2 meetings with the Spurs but both losses came by 5 points combined. With all this in mind, and the fact the San Antonio enters the playoffs on a 3-game slide, it hardly makes sense that the Spurs are laying this many points, or does it? Manu Ginobili is expected back for San Antonio. Plus, the regulars have had their minutes managed well down the stretch. The Lakers, on the other hand, don't have a deep bench and really had to push hard just to make the playoffs. The Spurs will be the much fresher team. The Lakers have covered the spread in their last two games, which means it's time to go the other way. That's because they are 0-9 ATS all-time under coach D'Antoni after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. The Lakers are also just 5-15 ATS as a road underdog under D'Antoni. The Spurs are 10-1 ATS at home in the 2nd half of the season the last 2 seasons versus teams with a winning percentage of 51% to 60%. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 105.3 to 91.1. The Spurs will be ready. Lay the points.

6* MLB *Major Mismatch* on Braves -1.5 -107
The Key: The Braves have the clear advantage with Medlen on the mound. They are 25-2 in his last 27 starts. He's carrying a 1.42 ERA through his first three starts while Pittsburgh's Sanchez has a 12.97 through his first two. The Braves are 12-0 in Medlen's last 12 road starts and have won these by an average of 3.33 runs. Sanchez's clubs, on the other hand, are 0-10 in his last 10 starts and have lost them by an average of 4.8 runs. It is also worth noting that the Braves are 12-0 in Medlen's last 12 starts versus NL teams with an on-base percentage of .325 or worse. They have defeated these teams by an average of 3.9 runs. Lastly, the Braves are 13-0 in Medlen's last 13 starts when the total is 7 to 8.5 and have won these by an average of 4.0 runs. Take Atlanta on the run line.

6* Early Annihilator on Blue Jays -140
The Key: The Blue Jays dropped the first two games of this series but haven't lost more than two consecutive games this season. They are 3-0 this season following back-to-back defeats, and I expect them to bounce back strong once again. Plus, the Yankees haven't pulled off a 3-game series sweep this season and haven't earned a series sweep at Toronto of at least three games since Aug. 26-28, 2004. New York's Ivan Nova hasn't been the same pitcher on the road. He is 0-3 in his last 3 road starts and has given up at least 4 runs in each. The Yankees are also 0-4 in Nova's last 4 starts as an underdog. Josh Johnson is coming off a solid start and should benefit from the fact the Yankees aren't very familiar with his stuff. Bet the Blue Jays.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nets -4.5
The Key: The Nets lost 3 of 4 against Chicago this season, and the lone win came by only 4 points. They just lost by 2 at home to the Bulls Apr. 4 yet they are laying 4.5 points? The books clearly like the Nets here, and I couldn't agree more. They are playing much better ball entering the playoffs, and they have a significant edge at the all-important point guard position with Deron Williams. The Nets are also the healthier team, and they have a lot more depth. The Bulls enter off a win but that was at home. They have lost 5 of their last 7 on the road. Plus, they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. It is also worth noting that the Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest while the Bulls are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Lay the points.

6* MLB *Major Mismatch* on Rockies -120
The Key: The Rockies are rolling. They are 7-0 in their last 7 overall and 11-0 in their last 11 at home dating back to last season. They are also a perfect 9-0 this season as a favorite of -110 or higher. Colorado is in good hands with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound considering it is 24-4 in his last 28 home starts. It is also extremely important to note that it is 7-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Diamondbacks. Take the Rockies.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Braves -134
The Key: The Pirates are 0-4 against left-handed starters this season, hitting only .125 and scoring just 1.5 runs per game against them. They'll have a tough time getting much of anything against Atlanta's Paul Maholm, who is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA. The Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter and are batting .263 and scoring 4.9 runs per game against them on the season. They should be able to get to Pittsburgh's James McDonald, who is 0-2 at home with an ERA of 4.15. Bet the Braves.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics +6.5
The Key: The Knicks are being overvalued here because of the tear they were on to finish the regular season. The books know the public will gravitate toward the Knicks, especially since they've won 3 straight against Boston and the last 2 wins were by double digits. The books are clearly looking to trap the public with this line. The Celtics will be lacking no confidence as they have a lot more big-game experience. Plus, they have won or lost by fewer than 6.5 points in 22 of their last 26 at Madison Square. Now, that's a 22-4 trend I can get behind. It's also worth noting that the Celtics are 52-34 ATS all-time under Doc Rivers as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. They are also 40-25 ATS under Rivers when playing with triple revenge. Take the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -1.5 (-101)
The Key: Dating back to last season, the Giants are 4-0 in Madison Bumgarner's last 4 starts. They have won these by an average of 2.0 runs. The Padres, meanwhile, are 0-4 in Edison Volquez's last 4 starts and have lost these by an average of 5.8 runs. The Giants are also 5-0 in Bumgarner's last 5 home starts versus the Padres with these wins coming by an average of 2.0 runs. Volquez's teams are 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the Giants, losing these by an average of 3.5 runs. Take San Francisco on the run line.

7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Diamondbacks +108
The Key: The D-backs have lost the first two games of this series but squandered multi-run leads in each. I really think they are the better team at this stage of the season and will prove so here with the better starter on the hill. The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 in the third game of a series and 5-2 in their last 7 games after losing the first two games of a series. The Yankees have struggled against southpaw starters this season, hitting just .209 against them, and these struggles should continue against Pat Corbin, who is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA. The D-backs are 3-0 in his last 3 starts and 5-1 in his last 6. Meanwhile, New York's Phil Hughes has struggled. He has a 10.29 ERA through 2 starts, and the Yankees are 0-4 in his last 4 starts dating to last season. Opponents are hitting .472 off him this season, and he has a 6.17 ERA in four interleague home starts. The D-backs should have little trouble getting to Hughes considering the way they are crushing right-handed starters. They are batting .289 against them on the season. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Snakes.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockets +2.5
The Key: There's a pretty good chance the Lakers will know their playoff fate before this one even gets underway as the Jazz play the Grizzlies at 8:00 PM ET. Utah must win to keep its playoff hopes alive but will likely come up short in Memphis against a team that still has a chance to secure home-court in the first round. The Lakers will be in the playoffs with a Utah loss and wouldn't have as much motivation to win as a result. Regardless, I like Houston to show up here and get the job done as it looks to erase the memory of Monday's ugly loss in Phoenix. Plus, the Rockets still have an opportunity to earn the sixth seed, which they want if at all possible to avoid the Thunder and Spurs. You want to fade home teams like the Lakers that are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent if that foe checks in off an upset loss on the road. Doing so has produced a 76-35 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Take the points.

7* Run Line Rout of the Week on Dodgers -1.5 -111
The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, look for the Dodgers to bounce back strong behind ace Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Kershaw's last 4 home starts and have won these by an average of 4.3 runs. They are also 6-1 in his last 7 starts versus San Diego with the 6 wins coming by an average of 2.5 runs. The Padres aren't in the same hands with Tyson Ross. His teams are 0-5 in his last 5 starts and have lost them by an average of 2.4 runs. They are also 0-5 in his last 5 road starts, losing those by 3.4 runs on average. Take LA on the run line.

6* Wednesday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Phillies +123
The Key: The Phillies, who are 10-4 in their last 14 games as an underdog, are showing value at this price given the struggles of Mike Leake. The Reds are 0-4 in Leake's last 4 starts, and he has given up 14 runs in 14 1/3 innings over his last 3. The Reds are also 0-5 all-time in Leake's starts against the Phillies, and he is carrying a 9.34 ERA in these starts. John Lannan is off to a strong start for Philadephia. The Phillies are 2-0 in his first 2 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 2.77. His teams are also 3-0 in his last 3 road starts and 2-0 in his last 2 starts versus the Reds. Take the Phillies.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Indians -140
The Key: The Indians have the overwhelming advantage on the mound with Justin Masterson. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts, and he has given up only 1 run in 22 innings spanning 3 starts this season. The Indians are also 6-0 in Masterson's last 6 starts versus the American League East and 4-1 in his 5 starts versus the Red Sox. They are 2-0 all-time in his 2 home starts versus Boston. The Red Sox are 0-3 in Alfredo Aceves' last 3 starts, during which he has given up 14 runs in 15 innings. Take the Tribe.

6* AL *MAJOR MISMATCH* on Angels -125
The Key: The Angels are showing good value at this price. They are off to a slow start but I believe we'll see just how big of a mismatch this matchup truly is by season's end. The Angels have won 5 of their last 7 versus Minnesota and should be able to bounce back from yesterday's loss behind Jason Vargas given Minnesota's struggles with southpaws. Minnesota went 22-29 against left-handers a season ago for the AL's second-worst mark and is 1-6 in its last 7 home games versus a southpaw starter. The Twins are 11-23 in their last 34 home games overall and 27-59 in their last 86 games as a home underdog. I don't have much faith in Mike Pelfrey, which means Minnesota's tired bullpen could get thrown to the wolves. The Twins are 7-25 in home games with a tired bullpen that has thrown 13+ innings over the last 3 games since the start of the 2011 season. Take the Angels.

7* Interleague Game of the Month on Rangers -121
The Key: Texas is showing good value at this price for a number of reasons. First off, I expect the Cubs to struggle against southpaw Derek Holland. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games versus a left-handed starter and 0-4 in their last 4 interleague home games versus a left-handed starter. The Rangers are 8-2 in Holland's last 10 starts as a road favorite. They are 13-3 in their last 16 interleague games and 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games. The Rangers figure to handle Chicago lefty Travis Wood better as they are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games versus a left-handed starter. The Cubs are 0-7 in Wood's last 7 starts as a home underdog and 0-6 in his last 6 home starts versus a team with a winning record. All together, we have a 26-0 angle in our favor along with a couple other convincing trends. Take Texas.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hawks -6
The Key: The Hawks have had 3 days to rest up and prepare for this one and shouldn't be lacking any motivation with an opportunity to land the fifth seed in the East with wins tonight and tomorrow. Atlanta would much rather see Brooklyn in the first round than a defensive force like Indiana so I believe it will go after the fifth seed full steam ahead. Toronto has been playing well down the stretch, but this will be its third game in five nights so it will certainly be the more fatigued team. Plus, the Raptors are just 12-28 on the road this season and were smacked 107-88 in the most recent meeting. Keep in mind Toronto is just 2-10 ATS this season in road games when out for revenge of a same-season loss. It has lost by an average score of 107.8 to 94.5 in this situation. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Mavericks +4
The Key: The Mavs will miss the playoffs, but they haven't quit on the season. This veteran squad has a lot of pride and wants to finish with a winning record. "Even now, we're playing really for nothing, but it means something for us to be a winning team and hopefully we can finish with a winning season," Dirk Nowitzki said. Memphis has really struggled down the stretch on the road, going 4-6 in its last 10 away from home. It has won its last 2 on the road against Sacramento and Houston but neither win came by more than 4 points. The Grizzlies have had a terrible time in Dallas where they are 6-30 all-time. They have lost or won by fewer than 4 points in 15 straight meetings at Dallas. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Phillies -118
The Key: The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 games and have to be shaking their heads over blowing a 5-0 lead to Pittsburgh yesterday. I expect their struggles to continue with Cliff Lee stepping to the mound for Philly. He's 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA to start the season. The Phillies are 7-3 in his last 10 starts and 14-5 in his last 19 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Lee has also pitched well against Cincinnati, going 3-0 (3-1 on the ML) with a 1.67 ERA over his last four starts. Arroyo has struggled out of the gate, as evidence by his 5.25 ERA, and he has long struggled against the Phillies. In fact, his teams are 1-7 in his last 8 starts against them, including 0-4 in the last 4 at home. The Phillies have won 6 of their last 7 in Cincinnati. With Cincy's current losing streak, Lee's hot start and Arroyo's winless streak at home in the series, we have an 11-0 angle in our favor along with several other trends. Take the Phillies.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Lakers +5.5
The Key: The Lakers won't have Kobe Bryant, but I believe they'll rally around his season-ending injury to give the Spurs a game. The Lakers are in desperation mode, unable to afford a loss as they lead Utah by only a game for the final playoff spot in the West. The Jazz hold the tie-breaker so the Lakers must finish with a better record to make the postseason. The Spurs still have a shot at the top seed in the West but are much more concerned about the health of the team and won't push to get it. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games and 3-12 ATS in their last 15. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. The Lakers have lost both meetings with the Spurs this season but only by 5 points combined. Desperate teams are dangerous teams, and I'll take the points with the desperate team tonight.

6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Reds -1.5 +115
The Key: The Reds have the advantage with Mat Latos on the hill. They are 4-0 in his last 4 road starts, winning these by an average of 4.0 runs. His teams are also 11-0 in his last 11 starts as a favorite of -150 or higher, winning these by an average of 2.5 runs. Latos is also 4-0 (6-0 on the money line) lifetime against the Pirates with an ERA of 2.11. These 6 wins have come by an average of 3.5 runs. Take the Reds on the run line.

6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Nationals -1.5 +146
The Key: The Nats have the edge on the mound with Gio Gonzalez. They are 8-0 all-time with him on the bump in games when they are listed as a favorite of -150 or higher. They have won these games by an average of 3.6 runs. It is also worth noting that the Nationals are 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. They've won these by an average of 5.2 runs. The Braves send Paul Maholm to the hill, and he has a poor track record against Washington. He is just 1-6 (2-8 on the money line) lifetime against the Nationals with an ERA of 5.52. 4 of the 5 losses his teams have suffered against Washington have come by at least 2 runs. Take Washington on the run line.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Suns +5
The Key: The Suns have a huge advantage in terms of freshness. They will be playing on 2 days' rest while the Timberwolves will be playing their 4th game in 5 days. Consider that fading home favorites that have lost at least 4 of their last 6 games has produced a 61-27 ATS record since 1996 if they are playing their 4th game in 5 days. These teams have been favored by an average of 5 points but have won by only 1.9 points on average. Also, the T-Wolves are just 8-19 ATS the last 2 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Suns were completely embarrassed the last time they faced Minnesota, losing 117-86 March 22. That loss will provide plenty of motivation here. It is worth noting that the Suns had won or lost by fewer than 5 points in 16 straight in the series prior to that loss. Take the points.

6* AL *CA$H COW* on Royals -130
The Key: The Blue Jays have dropped each of R.A. Dickey's first two starts as he's struggled his way to an 8.43 ERA. Plus, he's just 1-3 lifetime with an ERA of 6.14 in 4 starts versus the Royals. James Shields has a respectable 3.75 ERA through two starts, and he figures to improve on it here against a team he's owned. Shields is 11-5 (15-6 on the ML) lifetime versus Toronto with an ERA of 3.24. He's 7-0 on the ML in his last 7 starts against the Jays with these wins coming by an average of 4.4 runs. Take Kansas City.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Reds -155
The Key: The Reds hold the advantage on the mound with Johnny Cueto, who has looked good early with a 2.77 ERA through two starts. It has made sense to ride the Reds with Cueto on the mound when he's going good. In fact, the Reds are 22-6 in his last 28 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Reds are also 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200 and 13-3 in Cueto's last 16 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Pirates have lost 9 of Jeff Locke's 11 career starts, and they are 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus division opponents. Cueto is 12-4 (13-6 on the ML) lifetime versus the Pirates with an ERA of 2.54. The Reds are 5-1 in his last 6 road starts versus Pittsburgh. Bet the Reds.

6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Cardinals -1.5 +128
The Key: Yovani Gallardo is struggling, as evidenced by his 5.73 ERA and 2.000 WHIP through two starts. Adam Wainwright has been much better with an ERA of 3.46 and a 1.385 WHIP. Gallardo has never fared well against St. Louis. He's 1-10 (3-12 on the money line) lifetime against the Cards with an ERA of 6.75. These 12 losses have come by an average of 4.7 runs. Wainwright is 8-6 (10-7 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.15 in 17 career starts against Milwaukee. He has limited the Brewers to 3 earned runs or fewer in 12 consecutive starts against them. Take St. Louis on the run line.

6* MLB Bailout on Tigers -110
The Key: The Tigers get the call at a great price with Max Scherzer on the hill. Dating back to last season, they are 11-4 in his last 15 starts. They are also 10-3 in his last 13 starts as a favorite and 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Scherzer was also terrific in 3 starts versus Oakland last season, giving up 2 earned or less in each with the Tigers winning 2 of them. Bartolo Colon was torched in his only 2012 start against the reigning AL champs and is 3-8 on the money line in his last 11 starts against them. Take the Tigers.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mets -108
The Key: The Mets hold a sizable advantage on the mound with Jon Niese, who has brilliant in his first two starts of the season. The Mets are 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall and he hasn't given up more than 3 earned in any of those. The Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games versus teams that have a losing record. They are also 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite. It's also important to note that the Mets are 4-0 in Niese's last 4 starts series-opening starts. The Twins, meanwhile, are 0-4 in their last 4 series openers. Vance Worley is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 home starts. Plus, he has struggled against the Mets throughout his career, as evidence by his 5.30 lifetime ERA against them. He is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 versus the Mets and was touched for at least 4 earned in each. Bet the Mets.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hornets +9
The Key: The Clippers are getting too much respect on the road against a New Orleans squad that has won 4 of its last 6 at home. The Clippers have dropped 5 of their last 6 on the road. The Hornets were blown out in Sacramento last game but were in a letdown spot after playing the Lakers tough the night before. They have been a phenomenal investment following double-digit losses at 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also 9-1 SU and ATS in the last 10 home meetings with the Clippers. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bucks +6.5
The Key: Atlanta has been overvalued at home all season, as evidence by its 14-23-2 ATS record. It has especially been overvalued lately ans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 home games as a result. The Hawks are even 0-5 ATS in their last 5 at home versus teams that carry losing road marks. It is also worth noting that the Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Bucks are looking to create some momentum heading into the playoffs. Plus, they're out to avoid the season sweep. Take the points as Milwaukee shows up and gives Atlanta a game.

6* AL Central *CA$H COW* on Indians -142
The Key: The Indians hold the edge on the hill with Justin Masterson, who has already outdueled R.A. Dickey and David Price. Going back to last season, the Indians are 4-0 in his last 4 starts. Jose Quintana really struggled in his first start, giving up 5 earned in 4 innings of an 8-7 loss to Seattle. Dating back to last season, the Sox are 0-3 in his last 3 starts. Masterson is 2-0 in his last 2 versus Chicago and has limited the Sox to 3 earned runs or less in 13 of his 15 starts against them. Take the Tribe.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Pacers -5.5
The Key: We find the Pacers in an extremely motivated spot tonight. They can clinch the third seed in the Eastern Conference with a victory. Plus, they have lost the season's first two meetings with Brooklyn so they will be out to avoid the season sweep. Consider that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge against a team that checks in off an upset win over a division rival are 44-17 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting this system have been favored by 6.4 points on average but have won by an average of 11.9. This system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. Lay the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -130
The Key: The A's have taken the first two games of this series but haven't pulled off a three-game sweep of the Angels since 2004. Also, Oakland has won its first 5 on the road but hasn't opened 6-0 on the highway since 1990. Jason Vargas was solid in his first start of the season and has a strong track record against the A's. He's given up 2 earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts against them. The Angels have been hitting the snot out of the ball, recording double-digit hits in each of their last 4 games. The problem has been driving in the base runners. History is on our side here though as the Halos are on a 41-23 run after 2 straight games of stranding 10 or more runners on base. The Angels are also on a 38-23 run after 2 straight losses of 4 runs or more, a 92-55 run in home games after allowing 8 runs or more last game and a 55-34 run when out for revenge for a home loss of 6 runs or more to an opponent. Take the Angels.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Bulls Under 191
The Key: Oddsmakers consistently and purposefully set the bar too high for these Thursday TNT contests because of the amount of betting attention they receive. That's why the Knicks have played to the under in 5 of their last 6 Thursday nighters and the Bulls are on a 40-19-2 Thursday night unders run. The Bulls have played to the under in 25 of 39 home games this season, which comes as no surprise because they have been excellent defensively at the United Center, holding opponents to 90.3 ppg on 43.3% shooting. It bodes well for us that the Bulls lost their last home game as they tend to pick up the "D" following a loss. They are 8-1 under this season in home games off a home loss, and we have seen only 174.4 total points scored on average in this situation. The Knicks have been hitting on all cylinders offensively and have gone over the number in their last two as a result. However, New York is 11-2 under the last 2 seasons in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs. The Knicks have lost all 3 meetings with the Bulls this season and gave up 110 and 108 points to them in the last 2 so I expect them to tighten the screws defensively as well. We saw just 178 total points scored when these 2 met in Chicago earlier this season, and I'm expecting another low-scoring affair here.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls +5
The Key: The Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season but are being overvalued because of it against a Chicago team that has had their number. The Bulls are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings and 7-1 in the last 8. Their only loss during this span came by a single point. While the Knicks will be hungry for revenge, I don't expect them to walk away with a win in Chicago, where they have dropped 19 of 22, easily. Consider that fading favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have a winning record on the season and are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent that dropped 100 points or more on them has produced an 80-45 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. The Bulls are coming off back-to-back disappointing performance against Detroit and Toronto so I expect them to be every bit as hungry as the Knicks. Consider that Chicago is 19-6 ATS under coach Thibodeau when checking in off an upset loss at home. It has won by an average score of 95.6 to 85.5 in this situation. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in the series. Also, the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Chicago rose to the challenge to end Miami's winning streak, and I expect it to be up to the challenge against the Knicks as well.

7* NBA Game of the Year on Trail Blazers +6
The Key: The Lakers are fighting for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West but find themselves in an extremely tough situation tonight. They just had a tough one with New Orleans last night and will now face a Portland squad that has had two days' rest. The Lakers are 2-8 on the back end of games on back-to-back nights this season and are on a 0-15 slide when trying to win two games on consecutive nights. The Lakers have struggled immensely in Portland where they are 0-3 in their last 3 and 2-12 in their last 14. The Blazers have struggled down the stretch with injuries playing a part, but I fully expect them to show up here. In a season that won't end in the playoffs, they'll take great pride in trying to dash the Lakers' postseason hopes. Take the points.

6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Diamondbacks -1.5 +115
The Key: The D-backs will be very hungry this afternoon after blowing a 4-1 lead yesterday and dropping a second straight game to the Pirates. Pittsburgh has really struggled against left-handed starters this season, scoring just 1.3 runs in 3 games against them while hitting only .114. Expect those struggles to continue against Miley, who has a 1.64 ERA against them in 2 starts. Jonathan Sanchez has been a dead fade as his teams are 0-9 in his last 9 starts, losing these by an average of 4.4 runs. Each of these 9 losses came by at least 2 runs. Take Arizona on the run line.

6* MLB *Afternoon Annihilator* on Giants -132
The Key: The Giants are showing plenty of value at this price with Barry Zito on the bump. They are 15-0 in his last 15 starts, winning them by an average of 3.0 runs. They are also 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus Colorado, winning these by a minimum of 3 runs. The Rockies are 0-4 in Jeff Francis' last 4 starts versus San Francisco with these losses coming by a minimum of 3 runs. The Giants are 8-0 in their last 8 games versus the Rockies. They are also 8-0 in their last 8 home games in the series. Take San Francisco.

6* MLB Bailout on Angels -142
The Key: It's been a disappointing start for an Angels club with huge expectations, but keep in mind that it started the season on the road against a pair of 2012 playoff teams. At home for the first time this season, and having had a day to regroup, I expect the Halos to take care of business. The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. They are also 13-3 in their last 16 games following an off day. Additionally, the Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.

Oakland started the season with Seattle and Houston so it's record isn't all that impressive considering the competition. The A's send Parker to the mound, but they lost 3 of his 4 starts against the Angels last season. C.J. Wilson's clubs have won 6 of his last 8 starts versus the A's. The Angels are 7-2 in Wilson's last 9 starts and 10-3 in his last 13 starts when getting the ball following a team loss.

Wilson's teams are 34-11 all-time with him on the mound if they're valued as a favorite of -125 to -175. Lastly, the Athletics are just 4-9 in their last 13 games as a road underdog. Take the Halos.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Wizards +10.5
The Key: The Knicks are being overvalued here due to the fact they've covered the spread in 12 of their last 13 games. Off a very satisfying win at Oklahoma City, I expect New York to suffer a letdown.

Unlike some of the other teams that will be missing out on the postseason, the Wizards are playing out the season, and they'll be out for revenge for last month's 8-point home loss to the Knicks. Washington is an awesome 17-3 ATS this season when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 94.2 to 93.2 in this situation. It is also important to note that the Wizards are 12-4 ATS this season as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season. Take the points.

7* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Braves -1.5 +106
The Key: The 6-1 Braves are showing value on the run line against the 1-6 Marlins. 5 of Atlanta's wins have come by at least 2 runs while 5 of Miami's losses have come by 2 runs or more.

The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 games versus Miami, winning these by an average of 2.6 runs. They are also in good hands with Medlen on the mound. Atlanta is 5-0 in his 5 career starts versus the Marlins, winning these by 3.2 runs on average.

The Braves are also 11-0 in Medlen's last 11 road starts, winning these by 3.5 runs on average. The Marlins, meanwhile, are 0-5 in LeBlanc's last 5 starts as an underdog, losing these by an average of 3.2 runs. Bet the Braves on the run line.

6* MLB Bailout on Giants -1.5 +136
The Key: The Giants have the edge on the mound with Bumgarner. They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus the Rockies, winning these by an average of 4.0 runs. He has held the Rockies to 1 earned run or none 8 of the last 9 times he's faced them. It is also worth noting that the Giants are 12-1 in Bumgarner's last 13 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. De La Rosa had some success early in his career against San Francisco but has lost 3 of his last 4 starts against the Giants, including each of his last 2. He's given up 9 runs in 9 2/3 innings in those 2. The Rockies are 1-5 in De La Rosa's last 6 road starts and 9-25 in their last 34 meetings in San Francisco. Take the Giants on the run line.

7* NCAAB Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville -4
The Key: I have ridden Michigan throughout the NCAA tournament, but I believe this is where it meets its match. No team in the country presses like Louisville. And even if its press doesn't yield turnovers, it will wear Michigan out. Anyone who has played against a press for 40 consecutive minutes knows the increased level of fatigue it causes. I have seen it time and time again with Louisville. It's like a switch is flipped. Once their opponent starts to wear down, the Cardinals pull away. I also like the fact that Louisville is the more experienced team. While Michigan does a good job of taking care of the rock, it's important to note that Louisville is still on a 19-9 ATS run 15 games or more into the season versus excellent ball handling teams that commit 12 turnovers or fewer per game. The Cards have won by an average score of 69.7 to 63.4 in this situation. Louisville has done an excellent job of taking care of the basketball, which means Michigan won't get much of anything easy. The Cards are 7-0 ATS in road/neutral court games the last 2 seasons after 4 straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers. They have won by an average score of 70.6 to 59.8 in this situation. Louisville is also a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and has won these by an average score of 73.5 to 58.7. Lastly, the Cards are 7-0 ATS the L2 seasons when playing a second game away from home in a span of 3 days. It has won by an average score of 76.4 to 61.7 in these spots. Louisville has won 15 in a row with all of those wins coming by at least 4 points. Lay the points.

6* MLB *Afternoon Annihilator* on Cardinals -110
The Key: The Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Jaime Garcia. He's 8-2 lifetime against the Reds with an ERA of 3.06. Compare that to Mat Latos, who is 2-4 lifetime with a 9.00 ERA against St. Louis. Latos has really struggled at Busch, where he is 1-3 with a 13.50 ERA in four career starts. Garcia, on the other hand, is 6-0 with a 2.11 ERA in six career starts at home versus Cincinnati. These 6 wins have come by an average of 5.0 runs. Dating back to last season, the Cardinals are 5-0 in Garcia's last 5 starts overall and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. Take the Cards.

6* NBA Bailout on Trail Blazers +3.5
The Key: Look for the Blazers to play with some pride tonight after getting hammered at home in their last two. Plus, they should be fresher than Dallas, which is playing its third road game in four days. The Blazers have been extremely competitive at home versus Dallas, winning or losing by 3 points or fewer in 6 of the last 7 meetings at the Rose Garden. The Mavs check in off a win in Sacramento but are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. The Trail Blazers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Portland is also on a terrific 81-55 ATS run as a home underdog of 6 points or less. Take the points.

7* Sunday Night Baseball *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels +127
The Key: It will be tough for Yu Darvish to bounce back mentally and physically following the best outing of his major league career. He threw 111 pitches in his near-perfect game but had thrown a high of only 78 pitches during spring training so I don't expect him to have his "A" stuff here. Jered Weaver is the far more proven starter. He's 4-0 in his last 4 starts against Texas. He's held the Rangers to 3 earned runs or fewer in each of these, and the Angels won these games by an average of 5.0 runs. The Angels are 10-2 in Weaver's last 12 road starts and 6-0 in his last 6 road starts versus a team with a winning record. I believe we're getting the better pitcher and the better team at a great price. Take the Halos.

6* MLB Afternoon Annihilator on Brewers -105
The Key: Even with some big bats out of the lineup, the Brewers are showing value at this price with ace Yovani Gallardo on the hill considering how dominant he's been against Arizona. He's 7-0 (9-0 on the money line) lifetime against the D-backs with an ERA of 1.09. These 9 victories have come by an average of 4.4 runs. The D-backs have lost 3 of Ian Kennedy's last 4 starts versus Milwaukee, and they are 0-3 lifetime when he is opposed by Gallardo. Bet the Brew Crew.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Thunder -7.5
The Key: New York is in the midst of its best stretch of the season, but many of the wins during its current streak came against inferior opponents. The Knicks beat the Heat during this span, but keep in mind Miami was resting LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. They take a big step up in competition here. The Thunder have been nearly unbeatable at home, even against quality competition. In fact, they are 14-4 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. They have won these by an average score of 106.3 to 94.6. OKC is also 27-11 ATS as a home favorite this season and 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. The Thunder have never lost to the Knicks in Oklahoma City, winning each of the prior 4 meetings by an average of 10.3 points. Lay the number.

7* Final Four *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan -2
The Key: Michigan has what it takes to beat the Syracuse zone, and it starts with Trey Burke. It takes good point guard-play to beat a zone, and Burke is the best point guard in the country. Indiana was soft at the all-important point guard position as Ferrell and Hulls don't have Burke's ability to create. Marquette actually ran good offense against the zone but couldn

6* MLB *RUN LINE ROUT* on Dodgers -1.5 +110
The Key: With Friday's 3-0 win, the Dodgers are now 7-0 in their last 7 home games versus the Pirates. They have won these by an average of 4.6 runs. Dating back to last season, the Pirates are only 1-9 in A.J. Burnett's last 10 starts. They are 0-3 in his last 3, losing those by an average of 2.3 runs. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Clayton Kershaw's last 4 starts, winning those by an average of 4.5 runs. In addition, Burnett's clubs are 0-11 all-time with him on the mound in road games when the total is 7.0 or less. They have lost these contests by an average score of 6.3 to 2.2. In other words, Burnett has lost pitching duels on the road time and time again. Take the Dodgers on the run line.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Rockets +6
The Key: The Rockets just played in Portland last night while the Nuggets had the night off, but this will still be Denver's third game in four days so I don't expect it to have a big advantage in terms of fresh legs. Plus, Houston will be lacking no motivation here. It has lost each of the season's first three meetings so it will be looking to avoid being swept. Also, it still needs two wins to clinch a playoff spot. Furthermore, the Rockets are only one game behind Golden State for the sixth spot in the West. That's a spot I believe they want so they can avoid San Antonio and Oklahoma City. If they get it, they could be up against Denver in the first round so they need to send a message here. The Nuggets will be without Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari tonight, and that's huge as they are the team's top two scorers. They have combined for an average of 38.7 points in Denver's three wins over Houston this season so they will be missed. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Denver is getting too much respect here considering it is without its two best options and considering the level of motivation Houston brings into this game. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Trail Blazers +5.5
The Key: Portland has lost its last 6, but I fully expect it to give the Rockets all they want and more tonight. Portland's recent struggles have stemmed from the absence of LaMarcus Aldridge, but he's expected back tonight. He's helped the Blazers win 2 of the season's first 3 meetings with Houston while averaging 29.0 points on 53.5 percent shooting. The Rockets haven't had an answer for him. Portland is almost a blind play in the home underdog role as it is 101-73 ATS as a home underdog since 1996, including 81-54 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or less during this span. They haven't been the same team on the road where they are on a 2-5 ATS skid. They are even 3-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. They have lost by an average score of 104.0 to 102.3 in these contests. The Trail Blazers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a losing road record, and the underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Suns +8
The Key: The Warriors are being overvalued on the road where they are on a 3-10 ATS slide. They have won their last 2 SU and ATS but are 0-9 ATS this season in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. They have lost by an average score of 104.3 to 92.4 in these spots. The Suns will be motivated here as they look to avoid being swept in the season series. Phoenix only lost by 2 points in this season's prior home meeting and has won or lost by only 2 points in each of the last 15 home meetings in the series. Take the points.

6* MLB *MAJOR MISMATCH* on Brewers -127
The Key: The Brewers hold a sizable advantage on the mound with Kyle Lohse, who went 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 33 starts for St. Louis last season. He was sharp in his lone spring training outing, which tells me he was working hard despite dealing with contract negotiations that weren't resolved until last week. Lohse dominated the D-backs last season, going 1-0 with a 0.77 ERA in two starts. Wade Miley didn't have the same success against the Brew Crew. While he had a nice rookie campaign, the southpaw posted a 10.24 ERA in two starts against Milwaukee. He gave up a career-high eight runs in 3 2-3 innings of a 10-2 loss at Miller Park on June 30. He struggled in spring training, as evidenced by the 7.43 ERA he posted. The Diamondbacks are only 1-6 in the last 7 games in Milwaukee, which doesn't come as much of a surprise considering just about every team has had trouble winning there. The Brewers are 112-60 at home since the start of the 2011 season and are 97-44 as a home favorite of -110 or higher during this span. It's also worth noting that the Brewers are 11-3 in their last 14 games following a loss, 11-4 in their last 15 series openers and 13-6 in their last 19 home games versus a left-handed starter. Bet the Beermakers.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bucks +7.5
The Key: The Knicks are being overvalued here due to a 10-game win streak, during which they have covered the spread 9 times. Milwaukee will be the more motivated team as it has lost the season's first two meetings by double digits and is yet to clinch a playoff berth, which it can do tonight with a win and a Philadelphia loss to Atlanta. The Bucks lost by 10 at New York in the most recent meeting but are 15-5 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. Milwaukee has won by an average score of 99.9 to 93.9 in this situation. Also, the Bucks are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 road meetings in the series. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Mavs +7
The Key: This game is basically a must-win for the Mavs, who are 2 1/2 games back of the Lakers for the eighth spot in the West with only eight games left. So I expect them to come ready to play. Denver has rolled in its last two, but fading home teams off two straight wins by 10 points or more that are against an opponent that was held to 85 points or fewer last game has produced a 38-17 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this system have been favorites of 7.0 points on average but have won by only 2.0 points on average. Dallas was embarrassed by the Lakers last time out, but it is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss and even 18-6 ATS the last two seasons after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. The Mavs have had a great deal of success against Denver. In fact, they have won 3 of the last 4 meetings by double digits. Also, the Mavericks are a 100% perfect 4-0 ATS in Denver the last 3 seasons, winning 3 of these straight up and losing the other by a single point. Dallas' success in Denver may come as a bit of a surprise, but it has been at its best against up-tempo teams, especially in the latter part of the season. The Mavs are 13-2 ATS in the second half of the season the last two seasons versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game. Dallas has won by an average score of 108.0 to 101.9 in this situation. Take the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -120
The Key: After losing the first two games of the series, I expect the Yankees to be very focused this evening. Keep in mind that they are 39-13 in their last 52 games after losing the first two games of a series. The Yankees have struggled at the plate in the first two games, but I like their chances against Ryan Dempster. Fading Dempster versus the Yankees has never lost as he's 0-4 (0-5 on the money line) with an ERA of 7.63 and a WHIP of 2.048 in 5 career starts against them. The Yankees are in better hands with Andy Pettitte, who has a proven track record against the Red Sox. The Yankees have won 24 of his last 36 starts against them, including 5 of his last 6. Plus, they Yankees are an impressive 97-43 in Pettitte's last 140 starts as a home favorite. New York is showing great value at this price.

6* MLB Run Line Rout on Blue Jays -1.5 +126
The Key: The Blue Jays enter the season with huge expectations but have disappointed in their first two games. I expect them to show up hungry and focused here as a result. They have a definite edge on the mound with Mark Buehrle, who was solid in spring training. Brett Myers, not so much. He posted a 9.00 ERA in the spring while Buehrle posted a 4.50 ERA. Buehrle's clubs are 73-33 all-time with him on the hill as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Also, the Tribe is a soft 4-10 in its last 14 games versus southpaw starters. The Indians are also 16-36 in their last 52 games as a road underdog, and the Blue Jays are 7-2 in their last 9 in the third game of a series. Take Toronto showing good value on the run line.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics -7.5
The Key: Boston has dropped 7 of 9, but I fully expect it to show up at home tonight with an opportunity to lock up a playoff spot and to exact revenge on Detroit. The Celtics can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Philadelphia loss. The Celtics have lost their last 4 to the Pistons so they will be hungry to say the least. Keep in mind that the last 3 losses in the series were at Detroit. The Celtics have won 4 of their last 5 at home in the series with the 4 wins coming by 13.0 points on average. Boston has also won 12 of its last 14 at home while Detroit has dropped 8 of its last 10 on the road. The Pistons check in off a rare road win but are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Also, the Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Lay the points.

6* MLB *MAJOR MISMATCH* on Nationals -1.5 -110
The Key: The Nationals hold major mismatches all over the field, but especially on the mound. Gio Gonzalez was fantastic in the spring, and his teams are 46-18 all-time when listed as a favorite of -110 or higher with him on the mound. They have won these games by an average score of 5.1 to 3.0. The Marlins have struggled on the road against southpaws. In fact, they are 0-7 in their last 7 road games versus a left-handed starter and have lost these by 2.9 runs on average. Take Washington on the run line.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Raptors -3.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from the Wizards tonight as they hit the road following a very satisfying win last night against the Bulls. The Raptors have had a day to gear up for this one, and they will be lacking no motivation as they were just embarrassed 109-92 at Washington Sunday. The Wizards have been strong at home but are only 2-7 SU and ATS in their last 9 on the road. Each of these 7 defeats came by at least 5 points Also, the Raptors are 5-1 in their last 6 home games versus the Wizards with the 5 wins coming by an average of 11.4 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Mavericks +3
The Key: This is a big game for both teams as they are in the hunt for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. I give the edge to Dallas, which is in better current form and is the healthier side. The Lakers are 2-4 in their last 6 while the Mavs have won 4 of their last 5. The Lakers are without Metta World Peace, Steve Nash is listed as doubtful and Kobe Bryant is playing hurt. These injuries are a big part of LA's recent struggles. I should also mention that Dallas has won 4 of its last 5 on the road with the only loss during this stretch being a 1-point setback in San Antonio. Dallas is an incredible 18-5 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The road team is 3-0 ATS this season and 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Take the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's -139
The Key: I went against the A's yesterday, but Felix Hernandez was on the hill for Seattle. Today, I'm backing Oakland as I believe it has the edge on the mound with Jarrod Parker, who went 13-8 with a 3.47 ERA a year ago. The Athletics are a terrific 20-6 in their last 26 in the 2nd game of a series. They are also an impressive 40-15 in their last 55 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The A's are 4-0 in Parker's last 4 starts as a favorite and 7-1 in the last 8 meetings with Seattle. In addition, you want to back teams with a money line of +100 to -150 in the first 12 games of the season if they had a winning record last season and closed out the season strong with 26 wins or more in their last 40 games. Doing so has produced a 37-11 mark the last 5 seasons. Take the A's.

7* NIT *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU +3
The Key: Baylor won the season's first meeting by 15 points, but that was early in the season and at home. The Bears haven't played away from home since March 14, and I expect them to struggle in their first game away from campus in quite some time. The Bears have lost 6 of their last 7 away from home with the lone win during this stretch coming by only 3 points over West Virginia. BYU just went on the road and defeated a So. Miss squad that had been nearly unbeatable at home. The Cougars have won 7 of their last 11 off campus and have won or lost by just 3 points in each of their last 3 away from home. Baylor has struggled against good offensive teams like BYU that average 77.0 points or more per game. It is 0-7 ATS 15 or more games into the season versus such opponents the last 2 seasons and has lost to them by an average score of 77.5 to 69.4. It has also struggled against teams like BYU that do a good job of sharing the basketball with 16.0 assists or more per game. The Bears are 0-7 ATS 15 or more games into the season the last 2 seasons versus such foes and have lost to them by an average score of 80.3 to 70.7. Take the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Mariners +102
The Key: The Mariners are showing value at this price with ace Feliz Hernandez on the hill. He has a 2.82 ERA in 26 starts against the A's. The Mariners are 16-6 in his last 22 starts in the series, including 9-3 at Oakland during this span. Judging by the low 6.5-run total, the books are expecting a pitcher's duel, which I feel favors Hernandez - the more proven pitcher. The Mariners are 7-3 in Hernandez's last 10 road starts when the total is set at 6.5 or lower. The Athletics are 3-9 in their last 12 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. Oakland came out of nowhere to win the AL West a year ago, but I expect it to take a step back in 2013. Take Seattle.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Trail Blazers +9.5
The Key: Utah is being overvalued here because it has won 4 in a row SU and ATS and Portland has dropped its last 4 both SU and ATS. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have covered the number in 4 or more consecutive games if their winning percentage is just 45%-55%. Doing so has produced a 32-8 ATS result the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by an average of 6.1 points but have won by just 1.2 points on average. This system is 17-5 ATS the last 3 seasons and 6-2 ATS this season. You also want to take road teams like Portland that check in off a blowout loss of 20 points or more if their opponent has scored 100 points or more in 4 straight games. Doing so has produced a 53-27 ATS result since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 9.0 points on average but have lost by just 5.9 on average. The more a team loses, the more the value swings in its favor. With this in mind, it comes as no surprise that Portland is 17-6 ATS the last 3 seasons when it enters a contest with at least 6 losses in its last 8 games. Utah just won in Portland Friday so the Blazers will be out for some revenge here. Take the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Astros +1.5 -119
The Key: The Astros are showing value catching 1.5 runs at this price with Bud Norris on the bump. He went 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in 11 home outings last season. His success was certainly no fluke as he has a solid 3.51 ERA in 48 starts at Minute Maid Park. The Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games and 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter. They are also 1-4 in Matt Harrison's last 5 road starts. Harrison was shelled in his only start at Minute Made Park in 2011, giving up 5 earned in a 7-0 defeat. It's also worth noting that the Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 series openers and 0-4 in their last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Astros have won or lost by a single run in each of Norris' last 3 starts. Take Houston on the run line.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics +6.5
The Key: This is a game Boston wants badly. After winning the season's first meeting in New York, the Celtics have lost the last two in the series at home. They were kicked 100-85 by the Knicks Tuesday, and that loss can't be sitting well. It will be the driving force behind a strong showing here. The road team has been the play in this series. It is 3-0 SU and ATS this season. Going back further, it is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New York. Catching this many points on the road has been a gift for Boston backers since Doc Rivers took over. That's because the C's are 51-33 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under his watch. In addition, Boston is 91-68 ATS when playing with double revenge under Rivers. Take the points.

7* Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan +2
The Key: Michigan was extremely fortunate to beat Kansas as it played rather underwhelming basketball for the first 37 minutes of the game. I believe that game will be a lesson to the Wolverines and they'll come out much harder, especially on the defensive side of the ball, in this one. While Florida is the better defensive team, we just saw the Gators give up 45.5% shooting to Florida Gulf Coast. If the Eagles don't shoot only 54.5% from the foul line and turn it over 20 times, it's much closer than a 12-point game. Brett Comer wasn't able to handle the Florida pressure, but I'm confident Trey Burke will have no problem. He looks like the best player in the country right now and will enter this game extremely confident after putting the Wolverines on his back down the stretch against Kansas. I just don't see the Gators having an answer for him. If they double him to make him give it up, Glenn Robinson and Tim Hardaway can hurt the Gators as well. Florida will also have trouble defending Mitch McGary, who is having a coming out party in this tournament. The Wolverines have been terrific in tournament formats this season, going 8-1 ATS in all tournament games. The Wolverines are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games under Beilein, whose teams are 14-3 ATS in the NCAA tournament since 1997. I'll take the points with the more talented team as I expect Michigan to show up after getting a scare.

6* NBA Bailout on Suns +10.5
The Key: The Suns are playing a lot of young guys as they are already starting to think about next season. Still, they aren't getting the respect they deserve at home tonight versus a road-weary Pacers club that will be playing its third road game in 4 days. You want to fade favorites of 10 or more points that gave up 80 points or less in their last game if they are matchup up against a team that allowed 110 points or more in their last game. Doing so has produced a 49-18 ATS mark since 1996. This system is 9-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. You also want to take underdogs of 10 or more points that have failed to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 games even if they are playing a third game in 4 days. That's because these teams are 58-30 ATS since 1996. Also, the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

6* Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Rockets pk
The Key: This is LA's 4th game in 5 days so fatigue will definitely be an issue. Plus, I expect motivation to be an issue as well as it is coming off a heartbreaking loss in San Antonio last night. It will be tough to bounce back from that one. The Rockets will be very motivated as they've yet to clinch a playoff spot. They've also lost the season's first two meetings with the Clippers so the revenge angle is live here. The Clippers are a soft 2-11 ATS under coach Del Negro when coming off a cover in a game they lost straight up. They have lost by an average score of 99.6 to 92.1 in this situation. The Rockets are 17-5 ATS under coach McHale in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. They have won by an average score of 106.9 to 97.4 in these spots. Take the Rockets.

6* Elite 8 *CA$H COW* on Marquette +4.5
The Key: Marquette knows how to beat Syracuse. The Golden Eagles have won 3 of the last 4 matchups, including a 74-71 win during the regular season. They were a 1.5-point dog in that game and are catching 3 more points in this matchup despite winning it? Syracuse is clearly being overvalued because of its performance against Indiana. While I give the Orange credit for how they played defensively, Indiana did a terrible job of attacking the zone. It takes ball movement, man movement and dribble penetration of the gaps to beat a zone. Indiana lacked in all three areas. Marquette won't. The Golden Eagles know the secret to beating Syracuse is getting to the foul line. In each of their last three wins in the series, they have made more free throws than the Orange have attempted. They also won the rebounding battle in the three wins. Because of their focus on taking the ball aggressively to the basket and keeping Syracuse off the boards, the Golden Eagles are 5-0 ATS against the Orange the last four 4 seasons. Marquette hasn't just been successful against Syracuse. It's strategy of getting to the foul line has worked against a number of quality defensive teams. In fact, the Eagles are 22-12 ATS all-time under Buzz Williams versus good defensive teams that hold their opponents to 39% shooting or worse. They have won by an average score of 71.5 to 69.4 in this situation. I also like the fact that Marquette is 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons 15 or more games in versus high-caliber opponents that outscore the opposition by 12 points or more per game. It has defeated these teams by an average score of 70.5 to 69.6. Lastly, the Eagles are a rock solid 19-8 ATS when catching points the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Mavs -4
The Key: *reduced writeup due to late line release and early start time* Bulls are in for a letdown on the road following a huge win over the Heat. Dallas, which is vying for a playoff spot, is in major bounce-back mode after getting embarrassed by Indiana. The Mavs were also kicked by the Bulls earlier this season so they will be lacking no motivation. Plays on any team that is out for revenge for a blowout loss of 20 points or more on the road to an opponent, provided it checks in off an upset loss of 15 points or more, are 37-12 ATS since 1996. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Trail Blazers -3
The Key: Utah has won its last two but is still just 5-12 in its last 17. I expect Utah's struggles to continue tonight in Portland where the Blazers are 22-12 on the season. The Jazz are just 10-27 on the road, including 0-9 in their last 9 road contests. They have lost by an average of 8.4 points during this losing streak. Portland should be lacking no motivated here following back-to-back double-digit defeats. The last one came at home to Brooklyn and that's significant because the Trail Blazers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Jazz are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Trail Blazers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Lay the points.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Nuggets -6.5
The Key: Denver saw its 15-game losing streak come to an end Monday and then lost a tough one in San Antonio Wednesday. Both of those were on the road. The Nuggets are a much better team at home and should be hungry to get back in the win column tonight. They'll be further fueled by a loss at Brooklyn in the season's first meeting. This is the Nets 6th straight on the road so I expect them to be feeling pretty road-weary by now. The Nuggets are 17-0 in their last 17 at home and have won these by an average of 11.9 points. They are also 5-0 in their last 5 at home versus the Nets and have won these by an average of 13.2 points. These two trends form a 22-0 angle that carries an average winning margin of 12.6 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Memphis -4.5
The Key: After back-to-back poor performances on the road, I fully expect Memphis to bounce-back strong at home tonight. The Grizzlies will draw added motivated from an embarrassing 121-96 loss at Houston the last time these two met. The Grizzlies are 10-0 in their last 10 at home and have won these by an average of 7.9 points. The Rockets have struggled on the road all season and haven't played away from home since Mar. 9 so this is a tough spot for them. The Grizz are 4-0 in their last 4 at home versus Houston, winning these by an average of 10.8 points. It is also worth noting that the home team is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.1 points. These 3 trends form a 23-0 angle that carries a 9.9-pt avg. margin of victory. Memphis is 32-17 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Also, the Grizzlies are 15-4 ATS all-time under coach Hollins when out for revenge for a blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent. Lay the number.

7* Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan +2
The Key: Kansas is a very good defensive team, but it is susceptible to long scoring droughts on offense. After managing just 64 points against Western Kentucky in the round of 64, the Jayhawks came up with 70 against North Carolina. But keep in mind that they were held to only 43.6 percent shooting by an often poor defensive team, and that they only had 21 points at the half. They were able to explode for 49 points in the second half, but they won't be able to afford any lengthy scoring droughts against a Michigan squad that has no trouble scoring the rock. Ben McLemore is Kansas' most talented offensive player, but he's been mired in a slump. He only had two points against the Tar Heels. Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III are all capable of going off for Michigan, and now Mitch McGary has joined the party. He's scored 13 and 21 points, respectively, in Michigan's first two wins. I just don't see Kansas being able to get enough stops or generating enough offense to pull this one. Offense has been an issue for Kansas at different times throughout the Bill Self era. It was a lack of offense that got them beat by Northern Iowa in 2010 and VCU in 2011. The Wolverines are a perfect 5-0 ATS versus Big 12 opponents the last 4 seasons. They have covered the spread twice against Kansas during this stretch as an underdog which I believe is a testament to how good of a coach John Beilein is. The Wolverines were a 10-point dog the last time these teams met in January, 2011 and they took the Jayhawks to OT. They had no business playing with that Kansas team, but Beilein had them ready. Now, he has the more talented squad. It is also worth noting that Kansas is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 versus the Big Ten. The Wolverines have been terrific in tournament formats this season. In fact, they are 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. Also, Beilein's teams are 13-3 ATS in all NCAA tournament games since 1997. Take Michigan.

6* Sweet 16 *CA$H COW* on Oregon +10
The Key: The Pac-12 entered the tournament incredibly undervalued, and that remains the case here. We saw Cal upset UNLV in a 12-5 matchup, and we have also seen Arizona make a nice run as a 6-seed. Oregon is clearly not your average 12-seed. The Ducks won the Pac-12 Conference Tournament and probably should have won the regular-season title as well. They are playing confident basketball right now and have made quality opponents Oklahoma State and Saint Louis look like chumps. I believe the Ducks have what it takes to give the Cardinals a game. You want to fade double-digit favorites that check in with a winning streak of 10 games or more as doing so has produced a 173-107 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. This system tightens up to 70-32 ATS if the team we are fading is matched up against a team that has won at least 2 consecutive games. Oddsmakers have not not set a very high total for this game, which is what I like to see when catching a big number. The total is significant because teams headed up by Dana Altman are 7-0 ATS in neutral court games when the total is 129.5 or less since 1997. I also like the fact that Oregon is 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court contests 15 or more games into the schedule the last 2 seasons versus good shooting teams that making 45% or more of their shots. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Suns +1.5
The Key: This is a big letdown spot for Sacramento, which won at Golden State last night. Keep in mind that the Kings hadn't defeated an opponent with a winning record away from Sacramento all season before last night. Even with the win, they are only 7-30 on the road. The Suns will be in bounce-back mode after losing in Utah last night. They will also be out for revenge for a loss at Sacramento earlier this month. They had won 5 straight in the series before that defeat. The Kings have had virtually no success in Phoenix where they have lost 12 of their last 13. The Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. The Kings are also 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings and 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Phoenix. Take the Suns.

7* Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana -5
The Key: Syracuse needs to play this game in the half court to have a chance. Judging by the total (136.0), oddsmakers don't expect that to happen. The total is significant because Syracuse is 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons in neutral court contests when the total is 135 to 139.5. Indiana has a big edge at the foul line as it connects on 19 of 25 free throw attempts per game on average and Syracuse connects on only 14 of 21. This is also significant because the Orange are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons at or after the 15-game point of the schedule versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 25 free throws or more per game. The fact Indiana cleans up the boards doesn't bode well for Syracuse either. The Orange are 0-8 ATS the last 2 seasons versus dominant rebounding teams that outrebound opponents by 7.0 or more per game. Syracuse has struggled offensively down the stretch. In fact, it's been under 41.0 percent shooting in six of its last nine games. That's not a good sign as it's about to face one of the best defensive teams in the country. Lastly, fading Syracuse in the Sweet 16 has never lost under Jim Boeheim. The Orange are 0-6 ATS in the Sweet 16 under his watch, losing these by an average of 7.7 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Lakers -4.5
The Key: Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats that have reduced their lead to a single game for the final playoff spot in the West, the Lakers will bounce-back strong against a team they have defeated 21 straight times. You want to fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are looking for revenge for a loss of 20 points or more to an opponent, provided that opponent checks in off a road game where both it and its foe scored 100 points or more. Doing so has produced a 25-5 ATS mark the last 5 seasons, and a perfect 2-0 ATS result this season. The Timberwolves rolled in Detroit last night. That bodes well for us as they are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a in of more than 10 points. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota, winning these by an average of 9.3 points. The Lakers have been hurt by the 3-point during their 3-game slide, but Minnesota shoots an NBA-low 30.0 percent on 3s. The T-Wolves made a season-high 14 on 26 attempts last night, which means they used them all up. If anything, the good shooting night will make them fall more in love with the long range jump shot tonight, and that plays in our favor. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies +1
The Key: Motivated by Monday's disappointing performance at Washington, the Grizzlies will bounce-back strong tonight. We're talking about a team that is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. Plus, Memphis hasn't lost too many against the East on the road. It's 10-4 on the road against the East this season. The Grizzlies are 19-9 ATS in all games against the East this season. They are also 14-4 ATS all-time under coach Hollins in road games against Atlantic division foes. Memphis has also been a tremendous investment in games oddsmakers expect to be close. It is 14-6 ATS this season in games when the line is +3 to -3. The Knicks have won 5 in a row but only last night's win against the banged-up Celtics was against a playoff team. The Grizzlies have had a day off to gear up for this one, and I fully expect them to respond.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Mavericks +1.5
The Key: The Mavs will be the more motivated team tonight. They have played their way back into the playoff picture, trailing the Lakers for the No. 8 spot in the West by only two games in the win column. Plus, they have lost the season's first two meetings with the Clippers so they'll be out for revenge. Both of those defeats came in L.A. I expect a different result in Dallas where the Mavs have won 10 of the last 11 in the series. The Mavs have been an outstanding investment in revenge spots this season. They are 17-8 ATS when out for revenge for a same-season loss this season. They are also an impressive 18-6 ATS in their last 24 versus the Western Conference. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus the West. They are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Take Dallas.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Bradley +11
The Key: Bradley lost both meetings during the regular season and was crushed 84-53 in the one at Northern Iowa. However, I like its chances of giving the Panthers a game. Northern Iowa shot the lights out from 3-point range in both wins against the Braves. It was 15 of 26 from beyond the arc in the home win. The Panthers average 8 3-point makes per game so they got an extra 21 points on 3's. If they make their average, they only win 63-53, theoretically. Bottom line, after getting blitzed from long range twice against N. Iowa, I expect Bradley to do a much better job against the 3 tonight. It is also worth noting that N. Iowa hasn't blown out too many opponents at home lately. In fact, it has won by 11 points or fewer in 6 of its last 7 home games with the exception being a 12-point victory. The Panthers are on an 18-34 ATS slide as a home favorite of 10 or more points. Plus, they are only 1-8 ATS at or after the 15-game point of the season the last 2 seasons versus teams that carry a winning percentage of 51% to 60%. They have actually lost to these teams by an average score of 61.4 to 59.2. Lastly, the underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take the points.

7* NIT Game of the Week on Southern Miss -8
The Key: Louisiana Tech took care of an inexperienced Florida State squad in its first round contest, but it will have trouble duplicating that performance at Southern Miss where the Golden Eagles are 13-1 on the season. The Golden Eagles missed a golden opportunity to make the NCAA tournament when they lost to Memphis in double-OT in the C-USA tournament title game. They were still feeling the effects of that disappointing loss when they let Charleston Southern hang around in their NIT opener. While they had trouble finding motivation for that game, they should have no such trouble tonight as they lost at Louisiana Tech 65-55 earlier this season. Home court has been huge in this series as the home team is 3-0 ATS in the last 3 meetings, winning those by an average of 11.7 points. It's also worth noting that the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, winning those by an average of 13.2 points. There is also a strong revenge trend in our favor as teams headed up by coach Donnie Tyndall are 23-8 ATS when looking for revenge against a team that held them to less than 60 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Wizards +3
The Key: The Wizards are showing value at home in the underdog role tonight. Washington has won each of its last 5 and 15 of its last 19 at home with notable wins over the Thunder, Bulls, Clippers, Knicks, Nuggets and Rockets during this stretch. Memphis has been pretty good on the road this season but has dropped its last 3 away from home. Besides, the Wizards are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games versus teams that have a winning road record. Washington is also a reliable 34-18 ATS as an underdog this season, including 16-7 ATS as a home underdog. Take the points.

6* NIT *CA$H COW* on Providence -8.5
The Key: Robert Morris shocked Kentucky in the first round, but that game was at home and the Wildcats were disinterested after missing out on the Big Dance. Providence, which defeated Charlotte by 9 in its opening game, is very much interested in making a deep run. The Friars weren't expected to do much of anything this season, and they went 9-9 in the mighty Big East. That's the same conference record Cincinnati, an NCAA tournament team, had. Most of Providence's success came at home where it is 13-4. Recently, the Friars are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 home games with notable wins over Cincinnati and Notre Dame during this stretch. The Friars have won 8 of their last 11 overall with a win at Villanova during this span. I mention that win because the Wildcats defeated all the elite teams in the Big East on their home floor. These two played one like opponent this season, Bryant. Robert Morris split two meetings with Bryant, winning one by two and losing the other by seven. Providence kicked Bryant 81-49. In addition, you want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing on 5 or 6 days' rest if they are a good team (60% to 80%) and playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 134-88 ATS result the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

6* Sunday NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on Illinois +8
The Key: Miami rolled past Pacific in its opener behind a 12 of 22 performance from 3-point range. That performance was clearly out of the ordinary as it averages just 7 3-point makes per game. If you subtract the 15 points scored from beyond the arc that Miami normally doesn't get, the Hurricanes only beat the Tigers by 14. That's what the spread closed as. With this in mind, I believe Miami is being overvalued here because of its wide margin of victory that came from an atypical long-range shooting display. Miami can try to make it rain again, but Illinois has the athletes to make sure the Hurricanes don't go off from deep. The books clearly feel Illinois will have success defending Miami as they have set a total of 128. Given the spread, this means they are expecting a game in the 60's, which greatly favors the Illini. Miami is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when it scores fewer than 70 points. Keep in mind that teams headed up by John Groce are 7-0 ATS all-time in neutral court contests when the total is 120 to 129.5. His teams have won these games by an average score of 63.6 to 53.4. This trend was in play Friday when Illinois defeated Colorado, and it was also live when it defeated Minnesota in the first round of the Big Ten tourney. The Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the ACC while the Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 versus Big Ten. Take the points.

7* Sunday NCAA Tournament ATS Blowout on San Diego State -7
The Key: Florida Gulf Coast is getting tons of attention after pulling off the upset of the tournament. That's fine by me. All the attention has led to a public love affair with this team and the books are looking to take advantage. I won't oblige them by falling for the trap. While the Eagles have wins over Miami and Georgetown, they also have double-digit losses to VCU, Duke, St. John's, Iowa State, East Tennessee State and Lipscomb. With all the attention FGCU is getting, people forget that San Diego State just kicked a very good Oklahoma team 70-55. The Aztecs dominated the Sooners on the boards and will have an advantage there again. Plus, SDSU has a sizable coaching advantage with the proven Steve Fisher over Andy Enfield. FGCU plays free, undisciplined ball, and I expect that to backfire against a SDSU squad that is elite defensively. You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are seeded 13-16 in the NCAA tournament if they enter a matchup with a winning streak of 4 wins or more. That's because doing so has produced a 41-14 ATS mark since 1997. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 6.9 points on average and have lost by an average of 9.9 points. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. FGCU sneaked up on Georgetown, but you can bet the Aztecs won't be looking ahead. Lay the points as SDSU wins by double digits.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Rockets +1.5
The Key: The Spurs have won each of the season's first three meetings, which means Houston will be out for some serious revenge. San Antonio hasn't swept the season series since 2005-06, and I don't expect it to get it done here. The Spurs needed OT to defeat the Rockets in the season's prior meeting in Houston and James Harden didn't even play in that game. The Rockets are a better team than they were the last time they saw the Spurs and will certainly benefit from Harden being in the lineup. Houston has been playing very well at home where it has won 10 of its last 12. It is also worth noting that the Rockets had won 3 in a row at home versus the Spurs by 3, 20 and 5 points before suffering the OT loss. Houston is an outstanding 9-1 ATS the L2 seasons as a home underdog of 6 points or less. Take the points.

6* Sunday NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +8
The Key: Minnesota has the size, physicality and athleticism to give Florida problems. I love how dialed in the Golden Gophers have been on the defensive end. They have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 35.6% shooting or worse. Florida has also been strong defensively this season, but Minnesota has been up for the challenge against such opponents. In fact, the Gophers are 13-5 ATS under Tubby Smith versus excellent defensive teams like Florida that give up 57 ppg or fewer. They have defeated these foes by an average score of 59.4 to 57.2. In addition, you want to back underdogs that have gone under the total by 48 points or more in their last 7 games, provided they are matched up against a non-conference foe from one of the Big 6 conferences. Teams fitting these parameters are 12-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Gators are a soft 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points. Take the points.

7* NCAA Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on Gonzaga -6
The Key: Southern woke a sleeping giant. After getting a scare in its opening game, expect Gonzaga to take the floor with more passion and focus in the round of 32. Wichita State rolled past Pittsburgh in its tournament opener, but I get the sense the Shockers are teasing us. They lost 4 senior starters off last year's squad and will be giving up a lot of experience to a Gonzaga squad that brought back 4 starters. This is the round where the Zags went home a year ago so they'll be determined to make sure history doesn't repeat itself. Wichita State beat Pittsburgh despite shooting 38.8% from the field because the Panthers shot only 35.2%. However, Gonzaga hasn't shot below 41.5% all season and averages 50.1% shooting. I expect Wichita State to struggle here against a much better offensive team. The knee-jerk reaction might be to fade the Zags following Thursday's scare - the numbers tell us to do just the opposite. Gonzaga is 8-2 ATS this season off a game it won but didn't cover. It is also 10-2 ATS this season after a game where it failed to cover the spread. In addition, the Shockers are a poor 4-18 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. They sink to just 1-8 ATS in the aforementioned situation under coach Marshall. Lay the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Bulls -3.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by losses in each of the season's first three meetings with Indiana, Chicago will be hungry to say the least. Consider that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are looking for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent, provided that opponent checks in off a win of 20 points or more over a division rival, are 42-15 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 8.6 points. The Bulls were upset in last game by a Portland team that has been terrible on the road much of the season. That loss can't be sitting well. Fortunately for us, nothing gets Chicago's juices flowing like an upset loss at home. The Bulls are 13-4 ATS the last 2 seasons following an upset loss at home. They have won by an average score of 95.5 to 83.9 in this spot. Indiana has been far from dominant on the road. It is just 15-18 away from home on the road. Plus, it is 3-11 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. It has lost by an average score of 98.1 to 90.1 in this spot. Lay the points.

6* NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on Marquette -1.5
The Key: Marquette got all it wanted and more from Davidson in the round of 32, but it was able to survive and advance. I expect no letdown from Marquette following that emotional win as this is an experienced team that won a pair of NCAA tournament games a year ago. Butler edged the Eagles by 1-point in a November meeting, but it was very fortunate to win that game. In fact, Rotnei Clarke had to sink a desperation 3-pointer at the buzzer to lift the Bulldogs. I expect Marquette to have its revenge. The Eagles were better in every phase of that game but one. They lost the turnover battle 14-7. I believe that can easily be corrected here. Marquette only had 9 turnovers against Davidson, and Butler isn't a team that typically forces many. In fact, 20 of its last 21 foes have had 13 turnovers or fewer. 7 of its last 10 have had 11 or less. The Bulldogs a soft are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The Eagles are 21-9 ATS 15 or more games into the season the last 3 seasons versus good defensive teams that allow 64 points per game or less. They have defeated these foes by an average score of 70.1 to 66.4. They are also on a 20-10 ATS run under coach Williams when playing with one or less days' rest. Marquette is type of team - athletic and physical - that gives Butler problems. Lay the points.

6* NCAA Tournament Early Annihilator on Michigan -2.5
The Key: Michigan looked sharp in its opener as I expected. It takes a step up in competition here, but I believe it will be up for the challenge. Playing in their own backyard at The Palace of Auburn Hills, I like the Wolverines to come through. VCU relies on its high-pressure defense to force turnovers. In fact, it forces an average of 20 per game. I don't see the Rams getting nearly as many easy points off a turnovers against a Michigan squad that only gives it away an average of 9 times a game. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. make up arguably the best backcourt in the country. They have the ability to beat VCU's pressure for buckets. Want proof of how dependent VCU is off getting teams to cough it up? The Rams are 0-6 ATS this season versus teams that average 12 turnovers or fewer per game. It is also worth noting that VCU is 0-6 ATS this season in games played away from home following a game where it covered the spread. The Rams love to force an uptempo game but the numbers suggest the Wolverines will be up for the challenge. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS under coach Beilein in road/neutral court games versus up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game. Lay the points.