Sports Picks & Predictions

6* Lions/Vikings NFC North *CA$H COW* on Detroit +13 

The Key: The Lions have the rest advantage after playing last Thursday while the Vikings played in Seattle on Monday.  Despite being 3-8-1 this season, the Lions have held a lead in all 12 games at one point or another. And all 8 of their losses have come by 12 points or less, including 7 by 8 points or fewer.  They will not be losing a game by 13-plus points for the first time all season Sunday.  I was impressed with David Blough and this extra practice time will get him ready for the Vikings.  Minnesota is still going to be without Adam Thielen, plus the other 2 top weapons on this team in Dalvin Cook and Stefon Diggs are banged up.  Bets on road teams who have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games in December games are 42-16 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Detroit. 

6* Hawaii/Boise State MWC *CA$H COW* on Hawaii +14 

The Key: This is a rematch from an earlier meeting this season.  Hawaii lost 37-59 at Boise State.  But that game was much closer than the final score as Hawaii was only outgained by 80 yards.  The Warriors gave the game away by losing the turnover battle 4-1 and losing three fumbles.  That’s very unlikely to happen again.  The Warriors have been lacking respect most the season and can cap off a 10-win season here with a victory.  They will give Boise State everything they can handle.  And fortunately for Hawaii, the weather is expected to be perfect in Boise with temps close to 50 and no precipitation.  Bets on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points who are revenging a loss with 4-plus more total starters and an experienced QB returning against a team with a new QB are 41-13 ATS since 1992.  Take Hawaii. 

7* Cincinnati/Memphis AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +9.5 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats and Memphis Tigers are in rare air here.  It’s only the 4th time in the playoff era that teams square off in the final week of the regular season and again in the conference championship game.  The underdogs in this situation have gone 3-0 ATS in the previous 3 tries.  And I expect that trend to continue here as Cincinnati keeps it close and covers this 9.5-point spread.  Cincinnati only lost 24-34 in their first meeting at Memphis last week.  But that game was closer than the final score as the Bearcats lost the turnover battle 3-1.  And now after playing a backup QB last week, the Bearcats get their starter back this week in Desmond Ridder.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 December games.  Take Cincinnati. 

6* Nebraska/Creighton NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Nebraska +12 

The Key: The Nebraska Cornhuskers started slow but are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg.  They should be able to hang with their rivals in Creighton, who have not been impressive this year.  They lost to Michigan by 10 and San Diego State by 31.  They caught Texas Tech without their best player in an OT win.  They failed to cover at home against Cal Poly in a 16-point win as 24.5-point favorites, failed to cover at home against North Florida in a 9-point win as 17-point favorites, and also failed to cover at home against Oral Roberts in a 12-point win as 13.5-point favorites.  Nebraska is better than Cal Poly, North Florida and Oral Roberts.  Creighton is 6-18 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 years.  The Bluejays are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off a win.  Take Nebraska. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New Orleans Pelicans +9 

The Key: The situation is a good one for the New Orleans Pelicans.  They are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS with 2 home losses to the Mavericks this year.  Well, the Pelicans are now getting 9 points on the road in the 3rd matchup and I like them to stay within the number.  New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games after losing a home game.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pelicans win this game outright.  Take New Orleans. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on LA-Lafayette/App State UNDER 58 

The Key: Lafayette and Appalachian State are in rare air here.  They will meet for the 4th time in 2 seasons after meeting in the regular season and the conference title game last year.  They also met in the regular season and will meet in the conference title game this year.  They have combined for just 44, 49 and 24 points in the previous 3 meetings, including that 24-point effort in their first meeting this year.  That’s an average of only 39 combined points per game.  I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the UNDER in this 4th matchup because of the familiarity of these two teams.  Lafayette is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games against teams that put up 31 or more points per game.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Clippers/Bucks NBA *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 233 

The Key: When two elite teams like the Clippers and Bucks get together I usually like taking the UNDER.  Both teams are almost up for these games emotionally, which means their effort will be there on the defensive end.  And these are two of the better teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency due to their great length.  Nothing will come easy for either of these teams tonight.  Bets on the UNDER when the total is 220 or more after a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent that’s off a blowout win by 20 points or more are 43-13 since 1996.  The Clippers are 18-5 UNDER in road games against a team with a winning record over the last 2 years.  The Clippers are 16-5 UNDER when revenging a road loss over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Oregon/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon +7 

The Key: This number has been adjusted too much in Utah’s favor based on the fact that they need to win to get into the four-team playoff.  They haven’t been in very many of these National TV games this season, and it’s a lot of pressure on them.  There is zero pressure on Oregon because they will likely be going to the Rose Bowl win or lose.  I’ll side with the loose, free-rolling Ducks in this game tonight catching a touchdown.  Oregon is 44-14 ATS in its lsat 58 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  This is an elite Oregon defense and the best defense that Utah has faced yet.  It’s going to be an ugly, low-scoring game with some bad weather, which favors the underdog.  The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  Take Oregon. 

6* Iowa/Michigan Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Michigan -6.5 

The Key: This is an awful spot for the Hawkeyes.  They are coming off a huge win at Syracuse on Tuesday and now have to travel to Michigan.  Prior to that game at Syracuse, they were in Las Vegas for a tournament facing Texas Tech and San Diego State.  They are in a bad travel spot, and they won’t have much left in the tank here for Michigan.  The Wolverines got humbled finally with their loss at Louisville on Tuesday.  They’ll return home hungry for a win.  Remember, this team beat Iowa State, UNC and Gonzaga in the Bahamas and is legitimately one of the best teams in the country.  Michigan is 12-1 ATS off a loss over the last 3 years.  The Wolverines are 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 years.  Take Michigan. 

7* Cowboys/Bears NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -3 

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys are 1st in the NFL in offense and 8th in defense.  They sit at 6-6, but they are a sleeping giant because of their record.  They are way better than they’ve shown record-wise, and I think that comes to fruition tonight as the Cowboys blast the Bears.  This is a Bears team that has struggled to put away the Giants and the Lions the last two weeks.  And now they’ll meet their match in the Cowboys here tonight.  The Bears are 29th in offense and 7th in defense.  Their offense just cannot be trusted.  Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games overall.  The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding 350-plus yard in their previous game.  Take Dallas. 

6* Thursday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Suns/Pelicans OVER 234.5 

The Key: Two terrible defensive teams square off tonight when the Phoenix Suns visit the New Orleans Pelicans.  The Pelicans are yielding 118.8 PPG this season and play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA.  The Suns are yielding 121.6 PPG in their last 5 games and just allowed 128 points to a bad Orlando offense last night.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 245, 259, 254 and 246 points.  The OVER is 6-0 in Suns last 6 games off a loss by more than 10 points.  The OVER is 11-1 in Pelicans last 12 Thursday games.  Take the OVER. 

7* Kings/Blazers NBA *BAILOUT* on Portland -4 

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers have won 3 of their last 4 coming in with their only loss coming on the road against the Clippers.  I know they played the Clippers last night, but they had 3 days off prior to that game, so they won’t be as tired as normal on a back-to-back.  The Kings have lost 3 of their last 4 and are finally coming back down to reality after an ATS tear.  They are without Fox and Bagley and could be without Bogdanovic tonight, 3 of their best players.  The Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road dog of 0.5 to 4.5.  The Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games off a loss by more than 10 points.  The Blazers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home meetings with the Kings.  Take Portland. 

6* Wednesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Texas State +13 

The Key: The Houston Cougars lost almost everyone from last year’s team and aren’t very good this season.  They lost at home to BYU as 11.5-point favorites, failed to cover in a 12-point loss at Oregon, and needed a big finish to beat Rice as 13-point favorites.  Texas State is good enough to hang with this down Houston team.  Texas State is 6-2 this season with its only 2 losses coming on the road at Air Force by 7 and Baylor by 9.  They also upset UNLV on the road and can hang within this spread tonight.  Texas State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against a team that allows 42% or less shooting.  Take Texas State. 

6* Wednesday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Bucks/Pistons UNDER 225 

The Key: The Pistons are tired right now playing for a second consecutive day and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Pistons are 15-3 UNDER in their last 18 games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  These teams just played on November 23rd with the Bucks winning 104-90 for 194 points.  This 225-point total is too high and these teams won’t come close to touching it.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Lakers/Nuggets Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Denver -2 

The Key: The home team is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.  The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with the Lakers and winning by nearly 20 PPG on average.  Take Denver. 

6* Tuesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Oral Roberts +15 

The Key: Oral Roberts has already gone on the road and played some very good teams tough.  They lost by 5 at Oklahoma State, by 7 at Tulsa, by 13 at Iowa and by 9 at Wichita State.  They haven’t lost a game by more than 13 points this season and they won’t start tonight.  Creighton was beating by 31 by San Diego State before coming back and beating Texas Tech the next day.  The Red Raiders aren’t nearly as good as they were last year because they were beaten by Iowa the previous day.  Oral Roberts has had a week off and will be prepared for Creighton.  The Bluejays will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days.  It’s a letdown spot after their tournament in Vegas over Thanksgiving.  Creighton is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a win.  Take Oral Roberts. 

7* Mavs/Pelicans TNT *Total* Annihilator on OVER 232 

The Key: These teams combined for 239 points in their first meeting this season and it will be more of the season tonight.  The Mavericks rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 116.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Pelicans play at the 5th-fastest pace in the NBA and are 26th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  These teams have combined for at least 238 points in 4 of their last 5 meetings.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

7* Vikings/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Vikings are the better team in this matchup with the Seahawks and should not be underdogs.  The Vikings have won 6 of their last 7 and 6 of their 8 wins this year have come by at least 10 points, so they haven’t been getting lucky in close games like the Seahawks.  The Seahawks are 9-2 this year but 8 of those wins have come by one score.  They are 8-1 in one-score games this year, which is hard to keep up.  Mike Zimmer has 2 weeks to get ready for Russell Wilson as the Vikings are coming off their bye week.  Wilson has only averaged 161 passing yards per game in his 3 lifetime starts against Zimmer’s Vikings.    The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Their 3 home wins this year have come by 1, 1 and 6 points with that 6-point win coming in overtime over the Bucs.  Take Minnesota. 

6* Monday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Suns/Hornets OVER 223.5 

The Key: When the Phoenix Suns and Charlotte Hornets get together it usually leads to a high-scoring game. And with the way the Hornets are playing this season with a ton of 3-pointers and little defense, it should be more of the same.  The Suns are giving up over 119 PPG in their last 5 and have not been playing very good defense as well.  The Hornets are 28th in defensive efficiency this year.  The OVER is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings with 225-plus combined points in 5 straight matchups.  Take the OVER. 

7* Pats/Texans AFC *BAILOUT* on OVER 46 

The Key: The Patriots will finally get their offense going this week after three straight weeks against good defenses in the Ravens, Eagles and Cowboys.  Not to mention the Eagles and Cowboys games were played in terrible weather.  It will be perfect conditions in Houston tonight for a high-scoring affair.  The Patriots have a good chance of getting both Sanu and Dorsett back at receiver after both players missed last week.  And the Texans have one fo the best offenses in the NFL when Will Fuller is healthy, which he is.  They basically have two #1 WR’s who are tough to tame.  Houston is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 games off 3 consecutive under.  The Texans are 30-15 OVER in their last 45 games as a home dog of 7 points or less.  The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Boston Celtics -7 

The Key: The Boston Celtics will be hungry for a win Sunday off an upset loss at Brooklyn.  Now they take on one of the worst teams in the NBA in the New York Knicks, who are 4-15 on the season.  The Celtics have won 7 of their last 8 meetings with the Knicks with 5 of those wins coming by 9 points or more.  The Knicks are 13-28 ATS in their last 41 home games, and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a winning road record.  The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 trips to New York.  Take Boston. 

6* Packers/Giants NFC *CA$H COW* on New York +7 

The Key: Daniel Jones is proving to the Giants that their move to get him in the 1st round was warranted.  He has played well and has kept the Giants competitive in most games.  Jones should dice up a Packers defense that just gave up 37 points to the 49ers last week.  The Packers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They are 28th in total defense in allowing 380.5 YPG with only the Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals and Bengals being worse.  It’s hard to ask them to go on the road and win by more than 7 points with such a bad defense. The Giants are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game in the 2nd half of the season.  The Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Take New York. 

6* 49ers/Ravens Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +6 

The Key: If there’s one team that can tame the Ravens, it’s certainly the San Francisco 49ers.  That’s because they have the top-ranked defense in the NFL.  The 49ers only allow 248 YPG on the year.  Their offense is clicking after scoring 37 points on the Packers last week and getting both Emanuel Sanders and George Kittle back from injury recently.  The Ravens are working on a short week after beating the Rams on Monday Night Football.  The 49ers will have the edge in rest and preparation as a result.  Baltimore is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a Monday Night game.  The Ravens are only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games overall.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Mountain West *CA$H COW* on San Jose State +2.5 

The Key: Fresno State won the Mountain West last year but lost almost everyone from that team and have had a disappointing 4-7 season.  Now they won’t be going to a bowl and look like they may have quit because they aren’t playing for anything.  They have lost 3 straight coming in.  Their only 4 wins this year came against Sacramento State by 14, New Mexico State by 13, UNLV and Hawaii by 3.  They have beaten some bad teams outside of Hawaii.  San Jose State is one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have 5 losses by 10 points or less including losses to bowl teams in Nevada by 3, SDSU by 10, Boise by 10 and Hawaii by 2.  They have proven they can play with almost anyone in the conference.  They will want to go out a winner on Senior Night here and cap off a nice season.  San Jose State is 8-1 ATS against good offensive teams averaging 5.9 YPP or more over the last 2 years.  Fresno is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 road games off a home loss.  Take San Jose State. 

7* NCAA Football Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -9 

The Key: The FAU Owls would clinch Conference USA’s East division with a win Saturday over Southern Miss.  They will be hungry and will show up on Senior Day.  I question Southern Miss’ motivation after losing 10-28 at home to Western Kentucky last week.  Losing that game meant they don’t control their own destiny now.  They lost to LA Tech and LA Tech hosts UTSA as a 20.5-point favorite this week.  There’s almost zero chance for the Golden Eagles to win the West Division now.  I think they suffer a hangover from that loss.  Plus, the Golden Eagles lost QB Jack Abraham to a leg injury in that game against Western Kentucky and he’s highly questionable to return this week.  He means everything to their team.  FAU is 9-1 ATS against teams that complete 62% or more of their passes over the last 3 years.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on Western Kentucky -9 

The Key: The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers should be more than 9-point home favorites over the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders today.  WKU is coming off two straight impressive upsets with a 28-10 win at Southern Miss and a 45-19 win at Arkansas.  They are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in conference play this year with their only losses coming to FAU by 11 and Marshall by 3, two of the best teams in the conference.  Middle Tennessee is 0-5 on the road this season and losing by 19.2 PPG.  The Blue Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record.  The Hilltoppers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games.  The Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record.  Take Western Kentucky. 

6* VCU/Purdue NCAAB *CA$H COW* on VCU +3 

The Key: VCU is 6-0 and returned 4 starters from last year’s team that won the Atlantic 10.  They should be favored over Purdue today.  This is a Purdue team that lost their stud Edwards from last year that carried them through the NCAA Tournament.  And they just aren’t as good as that Elite 8 team.  They lost at home to Texas by 4 and also lost at Marquette by 10 already this year.  Purdue is 0-6 ATS in road games after committing 8 turnovers or less last game over the last 2 years.  Take VCU. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Oklahoma City Thunder -4 

The Key: The Thunder have been through a tough stretch in losing 4 of their last 5 games and 4 of those 5 on the road.  They lost to the Lakers twice by 5 and 3 points.  They lost to the Clippers by 2.  And they were blown out on the road by Portland while winning at Golden State.  Now they are back home here laying a short price against a Pelicans team that is coming off a tough 4-point home loss to the Lakers.  That was a game they wanted badly, and I think that loss will beat them twice as they won’t show up tonight against the Thunder.  The Pelicans are 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS on the road this year and giving up 123.1 PPG.  The Thunder are 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS at home.  The Pelicans will be without Favors and Ball due to injury.  The Pelicans are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 Friday games.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.  The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a loss by more than 10 points.  Take Oklahoma City. 

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on New York Knicks +7 

The Key: The Knicks want revenge from a. 104-109 road loss at Philadelphia as 12.5-point dogs on November 20th.  The Knicks now get the 76ers at home just 9 days later.  And it’s a depleted 76ers team that will be without Al Horford, Josh Richardson and Kyle O’Quinn tonight.  Philadelphia is 8-19 ATS in division road games over the last 3 years.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games off an ATS loss.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record.  Take New York. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Year on South Alabama +11 

The Key: Arkansas State has been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention.  And they have won a lot of close games here of late that has them getting too much respect from the books.  Their last 3 wins have come by 1, 5 and 7 points.  And I think this game against South Alabama goes down to the wire.  South Alabama only lost by 10 at home to LA-Lafayette 2 weeks ago, which is the best team in the Sun Belt alongside Appalachian State.  They only lost by 2 to Texas State and by 13 to Georgia State in their last 2 road games.  They are back home here where they have been very competitive with a 3-point loss to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs as well.  South Alabama upset Arkansas State 24-19 as 13-point home dogs 2 years ago.  The Jaguars will look at this game as their Super Bowl on Senior Day.  The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.  The Red Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.  Take South Alabama. 

7* Saints/Falcons NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +7 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons will show up today against the New Orleans Saints.  They hate the Saints more than any other team in the NFL.  And they just beat New Orleans a few weeks back 26-9 on the road as 14-point dogs.  Now the Falcons are at home catching 7 points.  The Falcons are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with the Saints with a spread of +7.  They haven’t lost by more than 6 points to the Saints at home since 2007.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Bills/Cowboys Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +7 

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are 8-3 this season and have just one loss by more than 6 points.  That means they’d be 10-1 ATS in all games with a line of +7 for them.  I believe the Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL, but they don’t get the credit that other teams do.  The Cowboys are in a tough spot after a physical, rainy game against the Patriots on Sunday in a late-afternoon game.  Now they have to come back and play on a short week after facing the defending champion Patriots.  I usually like fading teams after playing the Patriots because it’s always a letdown spot.  And that’s the case here.  The Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record.  Take Buffalo. 

7* Bulls/Warriors NBA *BAILOUT* on Chicago -2.5 

The Key: The Bulls will be hungry for a win tonight after losing badly to the Blazers last game.  They have the perfect opponent to get on track tonight.  The Warriors are 3-15 this season and just can’t overcome all the massive injuries they’ve accumulated.  The Warriors are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 home games.  The Warriors are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a losing road record.  Take Chicago. 

6* South Carolina/Northern Iowa NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Northern Iowa +1 

The Key: South Carolina is a train wreck this season after losing Silva and Gravett from last year’s team.  The Gamecocks lost by 8 at home to Boston U as 15.5-point favorites.  They lost by 23 to Wichita State as 4-point dogs.  And now they are taking on a 6-1 Northern Iowa team that may be the best in the MVC this year. The Panthers led by 15 over WVU yesterday but couldn’t hold on and lost 55-60 as 6-point dogs.  They will hold on to their lead against this putrid South Carolina team today.  The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against SEC teams.  Take Northern Iowa. 

6* Ole Miss/Penn State NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Ole Miss +2.5 

The Key: The Ole Miss Rebels won 20 games last year and made the NCAA Tournament in Kermit Davis’ first season with the team.  He won SEC Coach of the Year and now had 3 starters back from that team and a lot of talent.  The Rebels are 4-1 this year with their only loss coming at Memphis 86-87 as 4.5-point dogs.  Penn State is 5-0, but it has come against an easy schedule.  They were fortunate to win 58-56 as 15-point home favorites over Yale last time out by closing that game on a 12-0 run.  Ole Miss is the better of these teams and should not be dogs.  The Rebels are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games overall.  The Rebels are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 against Big Ten teams.  The Nittany Lions are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against SEC teams.  Ole Miss is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days.  Take Ole Miss. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Wizards +10.5 

The Key: The Washington Wizards are 10-4 ATS in all games this year and 5-1 ATS int heir last 6 games overall.  Their last 3 losses have all come by 7 points or fewer.  They should be able to stay within single-digits of the Denver Nuggets on the road tonight.  The Nuggets are 12-3 but only 3 of those 12 wins came by more than 10 points.  Each of the last 6 meetings in this series were decided by 10 points or fewer.  The road team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Wizards have won each of their last 3 trips to Denver outright.  Take Washington. 

6* Tuesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Richmond +9.5 

The Key: The Richmond Spiders improved to 5-0 for the first time since 1985-86 with their 62-52 upset win over Wisconsin yesterday.  And now they have their sights set on taking down #18 Auburn tonight.  Richmond returned all 5 starters this year and four of them were double-digit scorers.  They added in Wagner transfer Blake Francis, who leads the team in scoring this year with 18.6 PPG.  Nick Sherod (18.2 PPG), Jacob Gilyard (17.6 PPG), Grant Golden (11.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG) and Nathan Cayo (9.4 PPG) are all returning starters as well.  This team is loaded and should continue to be a good money maker all year.  Take Richmond. 

7* Western Michigan/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -8.5 

The Key: I like the situation for Western Michigan tonight.  The Broncos need a win to clinch a trip to the MAC title game.  They are coming off a bye week, so they’ve had 2 full weeks to get ready for Northern Illinois.  And they’re facing an NIU team that just suffered their 7th loss last Thursday in a 17-45 setback to Eastern Michigan at home.  They won’t be going to a bowl game now, and they won’t be very hungry tonight because of it.  NIU is 0-6 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 3 years.  The Huskies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning record.  Take Western Michigan.

6* Thunder/Warriors NBA *BAILOUT* on Oklahoma City -6 

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off 3 straight tough losses by 2 points to the Clippers, by 5 points to the Lakers and by 3 points to the Lakers.  Those are arguably the 2 best teams in the NBA, and they showed they could go toe-to-toe with them.  Now the Thunder have their get right game tonight against the Warriors, who are probably the worst team in the NBA.  The Warriors are 3-14 this season and losing by 10.6 PPG.  The Thunder are on 2 days rest and are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on 2 days rest.  The Warriors are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 home games and 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 home games against a team with a losing road record.  Take Oklahoma City. 

6* New Mexico/Auburn NCAAB *CA$H COW* on New Mexico +8.5 

The Key: Auburn lost a ton of talent from last year’s Final Four team.  They have managed to go 5-0 this year, but it has come against a soft schedule, and they only beat South Alabama by 1 in their lone road game.  This will be their toughest game yet.  They’re up against a New Mexico team that returns a ton of talent and also recruited some great talent in the offseason.  The Lobos are 5-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road by 3 points to UTEP.  They beat New Mexico State on the road, and NMSU is great every year.  Take New Mexico. 

7* Ravens/Rams NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 47 

The Key: I like the OVER quite a bit tonight.  The Ravens are scoring 34.1 PPG this season and can take care of most of this OVER on their own.  The Rams get both Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks back at receiver this week after both missed last week.  The Rams are scary offensively when they have Woods, Cooks, Kupp and Gurley all healthy at the same time.  Bets on the OVER on road teams with a total of 42.5 to 49 who are good teams that outscore opponents by 4 PPG or more when allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 72-31 over the last 10 years.  Take the OVER.

6* Bucs/Falcons NFC South *CA$H COW* on Atlanta -3.5 

The Key: No team has been more impressive than the Falcons in the 2nd half of the season this year.  They came out of their bye and promptly upset the Saints 26-9 as 14-point road dogs.  They proved it was no fluke by following it up with a 29-3 win at Carolina as 4.5-point dogs.  And now they are home only laying 3.5 points against a bad Tampa Bay team that can’t seem to get out of their own way.  The Bucs are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Jameis Winston cannot be trusted to not turn the ball over.  The Bucs have committed 19 turnovers in their last 5 games overall, which is absolutely atrocious.  Winston will likely continue giving the ball to the Falcons today, an improved Atlanta defense that has allowed just 12 points total the last 2 weeks combined.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Steelers/Bengals AFC North *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +6.5 

The Key: The Steelers are a mash unit offensively right now.  I just don’t see them being able to score many points against the Bengals today considering they are without starting C Maurkice Pouncey, RB James Conner and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster.  Those are arguably their 3 best players on offense.  The Bengals showed some fight last week in Oakland and only lost by 7.  They will certainly show some fight against a division rival in the Steelers this week, and there’s no doubt they want to end this losing streak against them.  The Steelers only managed 7 points against the Browns last week and committed 4 turnovers.  They’ll continue to struggle to move the football and score points this week.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* AFC Game of the Month on Cleveland Browns -10.5 

The Key: The Browns played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL in the first half of the season.  Now the schedule has eased up, and the Browns have taken advantage.  After beating a good Bills team 19-16 at home, the Browns crushed the Steelers 21-7 last Thursday.  Now the Browns have had extra time to get ready for the Dolphins and are primed for one of their best games of the season.  The Dolphins have injuries all over their defense, especially in the secondary.  The Browns should take advantage and have one of their best offensive outputs of the year.  Cleveland has Kareem Hunt playing now and forming a dynamic 1-2 punch with Nick Chubb.  The Dolphins gave up 37 points to a bad Bills offense last week.  The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after having won 2 of their last 3 games coming in.  Miami is 1-8 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last 3 years.  Take Cleveland. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat +4 

The Key: The Miami Heat raced out to a 67-43 halftime lead over the Bulls yesterday.  This allowed their starters to get some rest on the second half and for the Heat to be more fresh than Philadelphia.  The 76ers also played yesterday, but they were in a dog fight with the Spurs in a game that was within single-digits most the way.  They had to extend their starters’ minutes, and wound up winning by 11 by pulling away late.  The Heat are the deeper, fresher team and are the right side today.  The Heat are one of the best teams in the NBA at 11-3 SU & 10-2-2 ATS on the year.  Take Miami. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on UCLA +14 

The Key: UCLA is playing well in the 2nd half of the season once again this year.  The Bruins have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 3 double-digit wins over Stanford, ASU and Colorado.  They did lose badly to Utah on the road last week, but that was due to committing 5 turnovers and not cashing in any red zone trips, and they had a bunch of them.  They will be able to move the ball much more effectively and score points on this soft USC defense.  UCLA has played USC tough the last 2 years, upsetting the Trojans as 3-point home dogs last year and only losing by 5 as nearly identical 14.5-point dogs in 2017.  USC is 2-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 years.  Take UCLA. 

6* Texas A&M/Georgia SEC *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M +13 

The Key: Georgia feels like it cleared its final hurdle last week with a huge 21-14 win at Auburn that clinched the SEC East.  And now I think they won’t be giving Texas A&M the attention they deserve this week.  Texas A&M is more than capable of coming into Georgia and giving the Bulldogs a game.  The Aggies are the fresher team after having a bye 2 weeks ago.  They have been blowing out teams in the 2nd half of the season with a 19-point win over Mississippi State, a 31-point win over UTSA and a 24-point win over South Carolina in their last 3 games coming in.  Georgia is coming off that physical game at Auburn and there’s no question the Aggies will be the fresher team.  Jimbo Fisher is 6-0 ATS after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards as the coach of Texas A&M.  Fisher is 10-2 ATS against good defensive teams that allow 285 yards per game or fewer in all games as a coach.  Georgia is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 home games off 3 or more consecutive ATS wins.  Take Texas A&M. 

6* Saturday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Florida International -9.5 

The Key: FIU has a common opponent with UNC-Wilmington.  That common opponent is Cleveland State.  FIU beat Cleveland State 107-61 on the road, while UNC-Wilmington just lost to Cleveland State 46-47 yesterday.  That’s a Cleveland State team that replaced all 5 starters and is very bad.  FIU handled Cleveland State like they should, and they’ll handle this UNC-Wilmington team as well.  Take Florida International. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on UMass +40.5 

The Key: BYU clinched a bowl last week with a 42-10 win over Idaho State as 33.5-point favorites.  They had a chance to punch it in from the 1-yard line and took a knee.  And I think they will show similar mercy to 1-10 UMass this week.  This is the final game of the season for UMass, so we should be getting their best effort.  They actually played Northwestern a lot tougher than the 6-45 final showed last week.  They were only outgained by 100 yards by the Wildcats and managed 310 total yards.  Look for BYU to run, run and run some more in the 2nd half to try and get this game over with.  It will favor UMass staying within the number.  Take UMass. 

6* Friday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Lakers/Thunder UNDER 211 

The Key: This is my favorite spot to bet an UNDER in the NBA.  The Lakers and Thunder are playing a home-and-home situation.  They just played in Los Angeles on Tuesday with the Lakers winning 112-107 for 219 combined points.  The 2nd meeting in these home-and-home situations is almost always more low scoring than the first because teams are familiar with each other and it favors the defenses.  The Lakers are 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this year while the Thunder are 12th.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Oklahoma City.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Friday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Evansville -6 

The Key: Evansville proved it would be a contender in the MVC this year by going into Kentucky and winning outright as a 24.5-point favorite.  No surprise they followed it up with an upset home loss to SMU as 2.5-point favorites in a 2-point loss in a clear letdown spot.  The Purple Aces will be refocused for this tournament in the Bahamas.  Now they take on a 1-3 ECU team that has a 20-point loss to Liberty at home, a 6-point loss at App State and a 5-point loss at Navy.  Their only win came against Virginia Military at home by 12.  The Pirates are overmatched here.  Evansville is 8-1 ATS in road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 3 years.  ECU is 0-6 ATS in road games off 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 3 years.  ECU is 1-9 ATS after having lost 3 of its last 4 games over the last 2 years.  ECU is 0-7 ATS in road games against teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last 3 years.  Take Evansville. 

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Rhode Island -6 

The Key: Rhode Island returned all 5 starters this year and is one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Rams are 3-1 this year with their only loss coming at No. 6 Maryland.  They beat Alabama 93-79 at home and will handle North Texas.  UNT is 2-3 this year with its only wins against Oklahoma Christian and UNC A&T.  They lost at home to Eastern Michigan outright as 9-point favorites, were blown out by 23 at Arkansas, and also lost at VCU.  UNT is 0-8 ATS against teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last 2 years.  UNT is 6-15 ATS against a team with a winning record over the last 2 years.  UNT is 1-9 ATS off an ATS win over the last 2 years.  Take Rhode Island. 

6* Thursday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on New Mexico +4 

The Key: Last year was a rebuilding year for head coach Paul Weir and New Mexico.  This year he has NBA talent on the roster and the Lobos will be a force in the Mountain West.  New Mexico State had a great season last year, but it’s more of a rebuilding season for them now.  They have losses to UTEP by 15 and Arizona by 30 already.  New Mexico is 4-1 with its only loss coming to UTEP by 3, which gives them a common opponent with New Mexico State.  The Lobos only lost by 3 on the road to UTEP, while the Aggies lost by 15 to them on the road.  I strongly believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup.  Take New Mexico. 

7* Colts/Texans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +3.5 

The Key: The Colts will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football.  That’s why I trust them more than the Texans.  They have by far the better defense, and by far the better offensive line.  The Colts rushed for 264 yards in their 33-13 win over the Jaguars last week.  The Texans gave up 263 rushing yards in their 7-41 loss to the Ravens and managed just 232 total yards on offense.  Deshaun Watson was sacked 7 times as his offensive line continues to struggle.  And not having JJ Watt makes Houston’s defense one of the worst in the NFL.  The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 against winning teams, while the Texans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against winning teams.  The Colts are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Houston.  Take Indianapolis. 

6* Thursday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Blazers/Bucks UNDER 227.5 

The Key: The Blazers and Bucks will both be playing their 3rd game in 4 days today.  Neither team will be looking to push the tempo simply because they’ll both be too tired to do so.  And with the Blazers not having Damian Lillard, they’re going to have to slow it down and try and make this an ugly, grind it out game if they want any chance to compete with the Bucks.  Seven of the last 10 meetings in this series have gone UNDER the total.  Take the UNDER. 

7* NBA Total of the Week on Jazz/Timberwolves UNDER 222 

The Key: This is one of my favorite situations to bet an UNDER.  The Jazz and Timberwolves are playing a home-and-home here after the Minnesota beat Utah 112-102 on the road Monday night.  That game saw 214 combined points, and now the total is 222 in the rematch in Minnesota.  I think it’s too high, and now that these teams are familiar with one another, points will be hard to come by tonight.  Utah is 25-8 UNDER off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more and 20-5 UNDER off a double-digit loss as a home favorite of 6 points or more.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Jazz last 16 games overall, 6-1 in Jazz last 7 road games, and 8-0 in Jazz last 8 games playing on one days rest.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Toledo/Buffalo MAC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 54 

The Key: The OVER is 4-0 in Toledo’s last 4 games with combined scores of 66, 71, 68 and 59 points.  I think this total of 54 has been set too low.  The OVER is 3-0 in Buffalo’s last 3 games with combined scores of 63, 57 and 57 points.  Buffalo is 8-1 OVER as a home favorite over the last 3 years.  The OVER is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 road games.  The OVER is 7-0-1 in Bulls last 8 games against a team with a winning record.  Take the OVER. 

6* Wednesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Chattanooga +20.5 

The Key: Chattanooga is off to a 3-1 start this year with its only loss at Eastern Kentucky int he opener.  Chattanooga has pulled out upset wins in its last 2 games at Troy 74-68 as 3-point dogs and home against South Alabama 90-72 as 3.5-point dogs.  They can hang with Florida State on the road tonight.  The Seminoles are coming off a lackluster 79-74 home win over Western Carolina as 17.5-point favorites.  They were also upset by Pitt in their opener as 4.5-point road favorites.  Chattanooga is 8-0 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 years.  Take Chattanooga. 

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Furman +4.5 

The Key: Furman is a team in line to make a run at an NCAA Tournament bid.  They are neck and neck with East Tennessee State as the top two teams in the Southern Conference.  Furman went 25-8 last year and returns 4 starters from that squad, all who averaged anywhere from 8.8 PPG to 16.2 PPG.  Furman is 4-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this year with road wins over Gardner Webb as 5-point favorites and Charleston Southern (by 44) as 7-point favorites as well as a blowout home win over Loyola-Chicago (by 24) as 4.5-point favorites.  Those results and margin of victory show that this team in for real.  Alabama is rebuilding under first-year head coach Nate Oats.  The Crimson Tide are 1-2 this season with an upset home loss to Pennsylvania and an upset road loss at Rhode Island by 14.  Wrong team favored here as Furman is probably the best team they will have faced yet.  Furman is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 against a team with a losing record.  Furman is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 road games.  Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games.  Take Furman. 

6* Ohio/Bowling Green MAC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 55 

The Key: Bowling Green has one of the worst defenses in the country.  They give up 34.8 PPG and just gave up 44 points last week to a mediocre Miami Ohio offense.  Ohio has a good offense that averages 31.8 PPG in MAC play and will hang a big number on them as well.  But I look for Bowling Green’s offense to have much better success against Ohio’s soft defense than they did against Miami Ohio last week.  Ohio allows 29.7 PPG and 432.6 YPG on the year.  Ohio is 7-0 OVER against awful pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or higher over the last 3 years.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 games off a loss.  Take the OVER. 

7* Chiefs/Chargers MNF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 52 

The Key: The altitude in Mexico City will take its toll on both defenses in the second half of this game.  I look for both offenses to score at will after intermission.  The Chiefs got Patrick Mahomes back last week and he showed no signs of rust as the Chiefs racked up 530 total yards including 433 passing in their 32-35 loss to the Titans.  Clearly the offense was not the problem, but they still have a soft defense that yields 370 YPG.  The Chargers have gotten healthier on offense with the returns of Hunter Henry and Melvin Gordon recently.  They are more potent now and put up 26 points on the Packers and 24 on the Raiders and probably should have scored more on Oakland but committed 3 turnovers.  Both meetings last year went OVER the total with 66 and 57 combined points in them.  The Chiefs and Chargers should have no problem combining for 52-plus in their first meeting of 2019.  The Chiefs are 6-0 OVER in road games after gaining 400 or more YPG in their last 3 games over the last 3 years.  The Chiefs are 8-1 OVER against good passing teams that average 7 YPA or more over the last 2 years.  The OVER is 9-1 in Chiefs last 10 games after gaining 350 or more yards in their last game.  Take the OVER. 

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Bulls/Bucks UNDER 230.5 

The Key: This is one of my favorite situations to bet an UNDER.  It worked yesterday with the 76ers/Cavs UNDER, and it will work tonight with the Bulls/Bucks UNDER.  The Bulls and Bucks will be playing in a rematch from a 124-115 home win by Milwaukee on November 14th less than a week ago.  The Bulls made 18 3-pointers in that game, and the Bucks shot 47 free throws.  Those are things that are unlikely to happen again, and the rematch will be more lower scoring because these teams are familiar with one another.  The UNDER is 26-11-1 in the Bulls last 38 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *CA$H COW* on Arizona +10 

The Key: The 49ers are a mash unit right now.  They are without George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders.  We saw how they fell apart against Seattle on Monday after Sanders went out with injury.  They are without RB Matt Breida, and fellow RB’s Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert are both questionable.  Not to mention the 49ers have injuries all over their offensive line.  I foresee Jimmy G struggling again without all his weapons.  The Cardinals sped up their offense in their 25-28 loss to the 49ers a few weeks ago and had success.  Look for them to go no huddle earlier in this game and find more success against the 49ers.  The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after yielding 6.0 YPP or more in their previous game.  Take Arizona. 

6* Sunday NBA *Total* Annihilator on 76ers/Cavs UNDER 216 

The Key: This is one of my favorite situations to bet an UNDER.  The 76ers and Cavaliers will be playing in a rematch from Philly’s 98-97 home win on November 12th.  Now they are playing again just 5 days later and will be familiar with one another obviously.  And that first meeting only saw 195 combined points, so this 216-point total is too high.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavs last 4 games overall.  The UNDER is 18-8 in the last 26 meetings.  The UNDER is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in Cleveland.  Take the UNDER. 

7* AFC East Game of the Month on Miami Dolphins +7 

The Key: The Dolphins outgained the Bills 381 to 305 in their first meeting this season just a few weeks ago.  But the Dolphins lost that game 21-31 in a very misleading final.  The Dolphins covered the spread in that game and they are now 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Now the Dolphins are getting 7 points in the rematch at home and will be out for revenge.  The Bills are not as good as their record and have feasted on some bad teams this year.  I can’t remember the last time they were laying a touchdown on the road.  Nobody seems to want to buy into the Dolphins which is why they have gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.  And they’re not buying into them this week either.  We’ll go contrarian and back the Dolphins.  The Bills are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record.  Take Miami. 

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Denver Broncos +10.5 

The Key: The Denver Broncos are in a good spot today coming off their bye week.  The Vikings are in a bad spot coming off a huge win on Sunday Night Football over the Cowboys.  They could let down here pretty easily.  The Broncos are better than their 3-6 record.  Only 2 of their losses have come by double-digits, and one was an 11-point loss.  So they have only really been blown out once all season, and that was by the Chiefs.  I don’t think Brandon Allen is much of a downgrade at all from Joe Flacco.  And I like that he has had 2 weeks to run with the first-team offense and prepare to face Minnesota.  But the reason the Broncos can keep this close is their defense.  They are 4th in the NFL in total defense and 6th in scoring defense, yielding just 18.9 PPG and 309.7 YPG.  They rank 9th in giving up just 4.0 YPC on the ground, so they will be able to slow down Dalvin Cook.  The Broncos are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games off bye week.  Take Denver. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Dallas Mavericks -3.5 

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks are cheap today because they have lost 3 of their last 4 and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.  But they played the last 3 on the road, and now they’re back home in a bounce back spot.  The Raptors will be playing their 5th straight road game here.  They remain without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, and I don’t believe they are good enough to beat a hungry Mavericks team on the road tonight without them.  The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record.  The Mavericks are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Dallas. 

7* Minnesota/Iowa Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Golden Gophers won’t have a letdown off their biggest win perhaps in program history over Penn State.  There is a lot more on the line than a win over Penn State.  Minnesota is basically assured of a Big Ten West title if they beat Iowa this week.  And they have a chance to make the four-team playoff if they go undefeated.  So everyone that talks about how the Gophers are going to have a letdown is dead wrong.  PJ Fleck went on the playoff show on Tuesday and said they hadn’t won at Kinnick Stadium since 1999, which was Kirk Ferentz’s first season with the Hawkeyes.  That’s 20 years.  If that’s not enough motivation, I don’t know what is.  Of course, Minnesota has a better team this year than they’ve had in the last 20 years, so that stat is pretty irrelevant.  The Gophers were never 9-0 going into the Iowa game before.  I realize the Gophers struggled in non-conference play to put away teams, but no team in the country has improved as much as them in conference play.  Not only are the Gophers winning, they are dominating.  They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in conference play winning by 23.2 PPG.  The Penn State game was the only one decided by less than 7 points, and they were up 24-10 in that game before the Nittany Lions expectedly made a little comeback.  The Gophers never trailed in that game so it wasn’t a fluke.  PJ Fleck is clearly one of the best head coaches in the country with leading Western Michigan to an unbeaten season until the narrow bowl loss to Wisconsin.  And now he’s taken Minnesota to 9-0.  He knows what buttons to push, and there’s plenty for him to push this week, including the underdog and disrespect cards.  Take Minnesota. 

6* Mountain West *CA$H COW* Utah State -4.5 

The Key: The Utah State Aggies have one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  That has helped them mask some other problems they’ve had when it comes to living up to expectations they created for themselves last year.  Despite the massive respect they’ve gained from their efforts last season, they’ve still managed to exceed expectations this year.  They are 5-4 ATS and coming off a 37-35 road win over Fresno State as 5-point dogs.  They racked up 525 yards on a solid Fresno State defense a week after gaining 521 yards on a good BYU defense.  That was one of the most misleading finals this season as Utah State lost 14-42 due to 5 turnovers.  The only games they really weren’t competitive in came on the road against Air Force and LSU, which is understandable seeing what those 2 teams are doing this year.  Wyoming lost a 17-20 heartbreaker at Boise State last week and won’t be recovered in time to face Utah State.  And the Cowboys lost their starting QB in Sean Chambers, who was playing great in leading Wyoming to a 6-2 start.  Chambers has 567 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns this season, and not having that dual-threat element with backup Tyler Vander Waal the rest of the way makes Wyoming very predictable.  Vander Waal was their starting QB last season and they were horrible with him at the helm.  Getting future NFL QB Jordan Love of Utah State as only a 4.5-point home favorite in this matchup with Wyoming’s Vander Waal is a steal.  Take Utah State. 

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on UTEP +17.5 

The Key: The UAB Blazers played the easiest schedule in the country en route to their 6-1 start this season.  Their 6 wins came over Alabama State (by 5), Akron (by 11), South Alabama, Rice, UTSA and ODU.  Those games against terrible teams in Alabama State and Akron tell all you need to know about how down UAB is compared to last season when they won Conference USA.  And when they finally stepped up in class this year, they have gotten blown out the last 2 weeks by Tennessee (by 23) and Southern Miss (by 35).  Now UAB is without stud starting QB Tyler Johnson III, who meant everything to their offense.  There’s a reason they only scored 2 points against Southern Miss on a safety without him.  UTEP is good enough to stay within 17 points.  The Miners covered as 13-point dogs in a 21-28 loss to Charlotte last week to prove they have not quit.  UAB’s chances of winning Conference USA are pretty much out the window now that they have have 2 conference losses on the season, so don’t expect them to show up this week.  Take UTEP. 

6* Kings/Lakers NBA *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -10.5 

The Key: The Lakers are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS this season and flexing their muscle in the early going.  The trio of Lebron James, Anthony Davis and Kyle Kuzma has been nearly unstoppable.  Both Javale McGee and Dwight Howard are playing some of the best basketball of their careers.  And role players like Danny Green, Avery Bradley, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are fitting in nicely.  Now the Lakers are expected to get PG Rajon Rondo back from injury to add another dimension.  The Kings are in a world of hurt right now injury-wise.  They are without De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III, arguably their two best players.  They are also without Trevor Ariza and could be without Dewayne Dedmon.  I just don’t see how they can keep up with the Lakers without Fox.  The Lakers are 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency this year.  The Kings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Lakers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.  The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against the Western Conference.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Fresno State/SDSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Diego State -1 

The Key: The San Diego State Aztecs are 7-2 this season and 4-2 in conference play.  That 4-2 record has them in first place alone in the West Division.  They knew they could afford to lose to Nevada last week and that’s exactly what happened.  Now the Aztecs have zero margin for error, and they know they need to handle their business tonight at home against Fresno State.  This is a Fresno State team that is grossly overrated this season due to their ATS success the past 2 seasons.  But they had to replace nearly their entire team this year.  This inexperienced squad has gone 4-5 SU & 3-5-1 ATS this year as a result.  The Bulldogs are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight in basically a pick ‘em game at SDSU.  Fresno State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 525 or more yards last game.  The Bulldogs have allowed 500-plus yards in 3 straight games now to Colorado State, Hawaii and Utah State.  The Aztecs will have one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight against this soft Fresno defense.  And the Aztecs once again have one of the best defenses in the country.  They give up just 14.4 PPG and 277 YPG on the season.  Fresno allows 32.4 PPG this year.  The Aztecs are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 against a team with a losing record.  Take San Diego State. 

6* Friday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Duke -28 

The Key: It’s hard to believe, but the Duke Blue Devils have actually been lacking respect to start the season because they lost Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett.  But their replacements have more than done the job.  The Blue Devils are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this year covering the spread by an average of 10.7 PPG.  Georgia State will not offer much resistance tonight.  It’s a rebuilding Georgia State team with a first-year head coach in Rob Lanier.  Duke is 8-0 ATS in home games after allowing 65 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 3 years.  Take Duke. 

7* Steelers/Browns NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 42 

The Key: The UNDER is 6-3 in all Steelers games this season.  The Steelers have a terrible offense and a great defense, which is why they have been an UNDER team.  The Browns have been terrible offensively as well scoring just 19 PPG on the year.  The Steelers are 12-1 UNDER in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 years.  The UNDER is 15-3 in Steelers last 18 road games, and 38-15 in their last 53 road games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Browns last 4 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 17-7-1 in Browns last 25 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Mavs/Knicks TNT *CA$H COW* on UNDER 215.5 

The Key: The Mavericks and Knicks just played 6 days ago with the Knicks pulling the 106-102 upset in Dallas for 208 combined points.  I think we see another defensive struggle in the rematch here tonight.  The Knicks are scoring just 99.5 PPG on the season and 94.7 PPG at home, so I don’t think they’ll be able to hold up their end of the bargain offensively.  Dallas is 21-11 UNDER when revenging a same season loss over the last 2 years.  New York is 13-3 UNDER in home games after going over the total in their previous game over the last 2 years.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Knicks last 51 games overall.  Take the UNDER. 

6* UNC/Pitt ACC *CA$H COW* on UNC +4 

The Key: The UNC Tar Heels just have a knack for playing in close games.  Eight of their 9 games have been decided by 7 points or less with the lone exception being their blowout win over a bad Georgia Tech team.  Six of their 9 games have been decided by 4 points or fewer as well, including their one-point loss to Clemson that showed what they are capable of.  Pitt has a poor offense that scores 20.9 PPG this year and it won’t allow them to get margin.  UNC has a good offense at 27.9 PPG and 446 YPG and will be in this game for four quarters.  Pitt is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 off 2 consecutive games where it committed 3 or more turnovers.  The Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record.  The Tar Hills are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take UNC. 

7* Bowling Green/Miami Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Bowling Green +17.5 

The Key: Bowling Green is still alive for a bowl game and is certainly improved this year.  This is their last stand as 17.5-point dogs to Miami Ohio.  The Falcons are coming off a 35-6 win over Akron and have had 10 days off since that game.  Miami Ohio is only on normal rest after playing and upsetting Ohio 24-21 on the road last Wednesday.  It’s definitely a letdown spot for the Redhawks off that huge win that puts them in the driver’s seat to win their division in the MAC.  Miami hasn’t beaten Bowling Green by more than 15 points in any of the last 9 meetings, which makes for a 9-0 angle backing the Falcons.  The Falcons won 37-29 as 17-point dogs their last trip to Miami in 2017.  Take Bowling Green. 

6* Wednesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Northern Iowa -10 

The Key: Northern Iowa returned 4 starters this year and will be a factor to win the Missouri Valley this year.  This is the most talented team Ben Jacobson has had in a while.  I believe he’s the best coach in the Missouri Valley.  The Panthers are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this year with wins and covers over quality Old Dominion and Northern Illinois teams.  Now they face a CS-Bakersfield team that isn’t nearly as good as the two teams they have already played.  The Panthers should have no problem winning by double-digits.  Bakersfield is picked 6th in the WAC this year.  The went 18-16 last year but lost 3 of their top 4 scorers.  They only return 2 of their worst starters and 2 reserves.  They were upset by South Dakota State at home last time out.  Bakersfield is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  Northern Iowa is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Take Northern Iowa. 

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Boston Celtics -8 

The Key: The Boston Celtics are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Oddsmakers just aren’t quite adjusting enough for how improved this team is with Kemba Walker and company.  Now they face the Washington Wizards, who are 2-6 on the season with each of their last 3 losses coming by 13 points or more to th eCavaliers, Pacers and Timberwolves.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in road games off a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 years.  Washington is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 trips to Boston.  Take Boston. 

6* Lakers/Suns Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Phoenix +2.5 

The Key: The chemistry of the Phoenix Suns to start the season has been impressive.  The Suns are 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS to be the best covering team in the NBA thus far.  Monty Williams is clearly getting the most out of these players and was a great hire.  They are sharing the ball very well and have made at least 11 3-pointers in a franchise-record seven consecutive games.  They had a season-high 19 in a 138-112 blowout home win over the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday.  They also had a season-high 37 assists on 52 baskets and a season-low seven turnovers.  Now they will take down Lebron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.  Anthony Davis has been slowed by a shoulder injury that could sideline him any given night, which would be a huge loss for the Lakers.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Phoenix. 

6* Tuesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Valparaiso -6 

The Key: SIU-Edwardsville is 1-1 this season with a lackluster 61-52 home win over Quincy.  They lost 60-87 at Iowa, which was just upset at home by DePaul by 15 as a 9.5-point favorite.  Valparaiso upset Toledo at home and lost on the road to Saint Louis by 11 as a 9.5-point dog.  They have been tested against two good teams, and now they face a cupcake they can beat up on, which is exactly what I expect them to do.  Valpo returned its 2 best players from last year in Javon Freeman and Ryan Fazekas.  They added in good transfers in Iron Gordon from Seton Hall and Nick Robinson from Saint Joe’s as well as Zion Morgan from UNLV.  Morgan teamed with Robinson at Chicago’s Kenwood High School, giving them some chemistry.  Daniel Sackey is also a returning starter who is averaging 14.5 points and 6.0 assists through two games.  Freeman (19 ppg) and Fazekas (13 ppg) are both off to fantastic starts this year as well.  The Crusaders are 8-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 years.  SIU-Edwardsville is 1-8 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the last 3 years.  Take Valparaiso. 

7* Western Michigan/Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio +1 

The Key: Western Michigan has already clinched a bowl game at 6-4 on the season.  Ohio is 4-5 on the season and really needs a win here to get to a bowl.  Adding to the motivation for the Bobcats is that this is Senior Night and their final home game.  Their best player in QB Nathan Rourke is a senior, and he has meant so much to this program that you know these players want to get him one final home win.  Western Michigan is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this year.  The Broncos should not be favored in this matchup.  The Broncos are 1-10 ATS after playing a home game over the last 2 years.  Western Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  The Bobcats are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 against a team with a winning record.  Take Ohio. 

7* Seahawks/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -6 

The Key: No analysis Saturday thru Monday.  On vacation. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit Pistons -3 

The Key: No analysis Saturday through Monday. On Vacation. 

6* Vikings/Cowboys NBC *BAILOUT* on Dallas -3 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

6* Sunday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Ohio State -23

The Key: No analysis Saturday through Monday. On Vacation. 

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Timberwolves +3 

The Key: No analysis Saturday through Monday. On Vacation. 

7* NFC South Game of the Year on Atlanta Falcons +14 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

6* Ravens/Bengals AFC North *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +10.5 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Chicago Bulls +6.5 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on BYU -17 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

6* NCAAF Mountain West *CA$H COW* on Utah State +6 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

6* Saturday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +2.5 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

7* LSU/Alabama SEC Total of the Year on UNDER 64 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

7* NBA Total of the Week on Pistons/Pacers UNDER 211 

The Key: The Pistons and Pacers square off for a 3rd time already this season.  They only combined for 190 points in their last meeting on October 28th.  Points will be hard to come by again in this rematch because both teams have the injury bug right now to almost all of their key scorers.  The Pistons are without Griffin, Jackson and Rose.  The Pacers are without Oladipo and Lamb and Turner is questionable.  Indiana is 8-0 UNDER when revenging a loss as a road favorite over the last 3 years.  Indiana is 20-4 UNDER at home with a total of 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Friday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Memphis -18

The Key: The Memphis Tigers had the top recruiting class in the country this season.  Penny Hardaway is doing big things recruiting his former AAU players when he was a head coach for them, which gives him a huge advantage.  I look for the Tigers to show out tonight against Illinois-Chicago.  Memphis won 97-64 as a 26-point favorite against South Carolina State in their opener to get the cover.  Illinois-Chicago nearly was upset by Olivet Nazarene of all teams, only winning 75-72 after getting an and-one with only a few seconds remaining.  After that result, there’s no way they can hang with Memphis.  Illinois-Chicago is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a road dog of 18.5 to 24 points.  Take Memphis. 

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on San Antonio Spurs -4.5 

The Key: I think we are getting the Spurs cheap tonight because they are coming off 2 straight losses, while the Thunder are coming off 2 straight wins.  The Spurs will be hungry for a win to avoid a 3-game losing streak.  They have been competitive in every game this season and their 3 losses have come to the Clippers, Lakers and Hawks with 2 of those on the road.  They are a quality team.  The Thunder are still one of the worst teams in the West with all they lost in the offseason.  Bets on home favorites who failed to cover 3 of their last 4 ATS against an opponent that covered 4 of their last 5 ATS are 76-38 ATS over the last 5 years.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with the Thunder.  Take San Antonio. 

7* Chargers/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +1.5 

The Key: The Raiders are hitting on all cylinders offensively with the balanced attack of Derek Carr’s precision passing and Josh Jacobs’ tough-nosed running.  The Raiders have reached or exceeded 24 points in 5 straight games.  The Chargers have scored 20 or fewer points in 6 of their last 8 games overall.  Philip Rivers is showing his age, and the Chargers have been a one-dimensional passing team.  I like backing home teams on Thursday nights, especially if they played at home the week before since there is no travel, which is the case for the Raiders after beating the Lions 31-24 in Oakland on Sunday.  The Raiders know this is their last season in Oakland, and they are showing out for their home fans.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Oakland. 

6* Temple/USF AAC *CA$H COW* on South Florida +2 

The Key: South Florida is hungry to make a bowl game this year.  The Bulls have won 3 of their last 4 by an average of 18 PPG and need this win against Temple to make a bowl as they sit at 4-4 with a tough schedule coming up after.  Temple has lost 2 straight by an average of 33 PPG.  I’m shocked they are road favorites here.  The Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The Bulls have been running the ball with authority on teams and will be able to run the ball on Temple tonight, which is going to be the difference in this game.  Take South Florida. 

6* Miami/Ohio MAC *CA$H COW* on Miami +7 

The Key: Miami Ohio has played a much tougher schedule than Ohio.  Both teams are 3-1 in conference play, but I believe the Redhawks are the better team and shouldn’t be catching a touchdown.  They have 3 common opponents.  Miami is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against those same 3 teams that Ohio has played.  Miami is only giving up 20 PPG and 361.3 YPG against those 3 teams.  Ohio is 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS against those 3 teams.  The Bobcats are allowing 32.3 PPG and 454.7 YPG against those teams.  It’s easy to side with the team with the much better defense tonight in the Redhawks.  The Redhawks are 7-0 ATS off 2 straight conference games over the last 2 years.  Take Miami.