Sports Picks & Predictions

6* NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Louisiana Tech +4

The Key: Louisiana Tech will be hungry when it takes the field tonight as it seeks revenge for last year's 28-13 home loss to North Texas.  The Bulldogs have already stepped on the field with Oklahoma and were better for it as they completely dismantled Louisiana Lafayette last week.  North Texas blew out SMU last week but benefited from five turnovers.  L. Tech has committed just one turnover in two games.  The Bulldogs are an outstanding 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games, and we'll take the points as they have an excellent opportunity to win this one outright.

7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -150

The Key: Look for the Dodgers to bounce back from yesterday's loss against a San Diego club they have defeated in nine of the last 12 meetings at Chavez Ravine.  San Diego earned the upset victory yesterday, but it is 1-12 this season following an upset win over a division rival.  LA's Dan Haren is in top form with a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts.  San Diego's Ian Kennedy, on the other hand, has a 4.23 ERA over his last three starts, and the Padres are 0-4 in his last four road starts versus teams that have a winning record.  Every other time the Dodgers see Kennedy, they hit him hard.  He's given up at least 5 runs against them every other time he's faced them over the last two seasons.  Haren has been solid against San Diego this season, limiting the Padres to just eight earned runs in 21 1-3 innings of work.  Take the Dodgers.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -134

The Key: The Angels are 9-1 in their last 10 versus Texas, and I expect them to continue their dominance over their division rivals tonight.  Texas' Colby Lewis has a 7.17 home ERA on the season and a 5.36 ERA in 15 career starts versus the Angels.  He's given up 18 runs in his last two starts against them.  He's allowed an average of 7.44 hits per start on the season, and that bodes well for us.  LA is 11-0 this season versus starting pitchers who give up an average of seven hits per start or more.  It has won these games by an average score of 6.5 to 3.7.  LA's Hector Santiago has quietly been dealing.  He's allowed one earned run or none in four of his last five starts.  Take the Halos.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mets -145

The Key: The Mets are showing a ton of value at home at this price against a Colorado club that is 11-40 in its last 51 road games.  Look for Colorado's road struggles to continue against Niese, who has posted a rock solid 3.12 ERA at home this season.  The Mets are 7-0 in his last seven starts versus losing clubs and 4-0 in his last four home starts versus losing teams.  The Mets are also 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Lyles has struggled of late with a 6.00 ERA over his last three starts, and the Rockies are 0-4 in his last four road starts.  Take New York.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Lions -6

The Key: I'll lay the points with the Lions at home as they have the edge on both sides of the football.  New York's O-line is an area of concern, and I see it having major problems against Detroit's D-line - Ziggy Ansah (eight sacks last year), Ndamukong Suh (5 1/2) and Nick Fairley (six).  New York's defense should be improved, but I don't see it being a well-oiled machine right out of the gate, especially against a team with so many offensive weapons.  New York won't have an answer for Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush tonight.  In addition, the Lions will have the motivational edge.  Unlike New York which finished last season strong, the Lions lost their last four games and six of their final seven.  One of those losses came in OT at home to the Giants so Detroit will be out for a little revenge.  The Giants are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five September contests and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Week 1 matchups.  The Lions are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 season openers.  Lay the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Buccaneers -2

The Key: Cam Newton isn't 100 percent, and I expect him to take a step back this season as he adjusts to a new group of wideouts.  He's at his best when he moves outside the pockets and looks for opportunities to run, but I expect him to be hesitant here with the sore ribs.  Tampa Bay's defense should be improved under Lovie Smith, and the Bucs also got an upgrade at QB with Josh McCown, who had a 108.2 passer rating in five starts for Chicago last season.  The Bucs will bring a little extra enthusiasm to their opener as they seek revenge for a pair of lopsided losses to Carolina last season.  The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five season openers.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.  Lay the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Oakland A's -150

The Key: This is a big game for Oakland because it has lost its last two series.  The odds are certainly in its favor considering it is 110-54 in its last 164 games versus losing clubs.  The Astros are a dismal 55-143 in their last 198 games versus teams that have a winning record.  The A's have dominated the series, going 31-12 in the last 43 meetings and 16-5 in the last 21 home meetings.  Houston has won each of Keuchel's starts versus Oakland this season, but all three were at home.  He was rocked for five earned in 3 1-3 innings in his lone starts in Oakland.  Hammel has a 2.51 home ERA on the season and has allowed two earned runs or less in five of six career starts versus the Astros.  Take Oakland.

6* NFC South *CA$H COW* on Falcons +3

The Key: Atlanta opens the season with plenty of motivation following a 4-12 campaign.  Despite what the record might lead you to believe, the Falcons were very competitive.  They suffered seven losses by seven points or less with two of those coming against the Saints.  They'll be out for revenge here, and I really like their chances of an outright "W" as the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  It is also worth noting that Atlanta is 7-0 ATS all-time in home games in the first two weeks of the season under coach Smith.  It has won these by an average score of 30.7 to 18.7.  Take the points.

6* AFC Annihilator on Titans +3.5

The Key: The Chiefs are getting too much respect here because of last season's 11-6 record.  I believe they overachieved last year with losses in 6 of their last 8 games being the evidence.  They defeated Tennessee 26-17 last season, but the game was even closer than the score looks as the Titans led that game in the 4th and trailed by only three points with under five minutes remaining.  The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games, losing their last three straight up.  The Titans are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  Take Tennessee.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Rockies -134

The Key: While it's been a terrible season for the Rockies, they are two games over .500 at home and are in good hands here.  No one pitches better at Coors Field than Jorge De La Rosa, who has a 3.19 ERA there on the season.  The Rockies are 46-9 in De La Rosa's last 55 home starts, including 6-0 in his last six.  The Padres are batting just .212 and averaging only 2.9 runs per game against southpaw starters this season.  The Rockies are 12-1 in De La Rosa's last 13 starts against them, including 8-0 at home.  Joe Wieland is making his first big-league start since 2012, and I expect rust.  The Padres are 0-5 in his five career starts.  Take Colorado.

6* NCAAF Line Mistake on Troy +19

The Key: This line is an overreaction to Week 1 results when Duke crushed Elon and Troy was crushed by UAB.  I expect Troy perform much better at home where it went 4-1 last season.  Plus, the Trojans will be lacking no confidence against a Duke squad they played to a seven-point game on the road a year ago.  The Trojans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Take the points.

6* ESPN National TV Annihilator on Vanderbilt +20

The Key: This line is an overreaction to Ole Miss' lopsided win over Boise State and Vandy's lopsided loss to Temple.  The Commodores have been extremely competitive with the Rebels.  In fact, they have won or lost by fewer than 20 points in 15 consecutive meetings.  That's a 15-0 trend I'm not hesitating to get behind.  The Commodores are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home and 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Take Vandy.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Navy -3

The Key: Navy will benefit from having played a high-caliber opponent (Ohio State) last week.  The Midshipmen racked up 370 rushing yards on the Buckeyes while averaging nearly 5.9 yards per carry.  I expect Temple to have even more problems with Navy's ground attack.  The Midshipmen have won four of the last five meetings in the series with the four wins coming by an average of 18.5 points.  Navy is an incredible 72-36 ATS in road non-conference contests since 1992.  Lay the points.

7* NL Game of the Week on Reds -113

The Key: Cincinnati is a strong value at this price with Simon on the hill.  The right-hander has a 3.11 home ERA on the season and has been a nightmare for soft hitting NL clubs like the Mets.  The Mets are batting a measly .236 as a team, and that spells bad news for them here.  Consider that Cincy is 13-0 this season in Simon's starts versus NL clubs with a batting average of .250 or worse.  The Reds have won these games by an average score of 4.2 to 1.8.  Colon has a 4.48 road ERA, and that's not going to cut it.  Take Cincinnati.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Boston College +5

The Key: Boston College lost a lot on the offensive side of the football, but I like its chances at home where it seems to always bring the "D".  The Eagles went 5-1 at home last season while holding opponents to just 24.5 ppg.  The lone loss came to national champion Florida State.  B.C. is 8-0 ATS in home games the past two seasons when playing on six days' rest or fewer.  It has won these contests by an average score of 28.4 to 19.5.  In addition, you want to play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that had a winning record last season as doing so has produced a 38-12 ATS mark the last 10 seasons.  Take the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Seahawks -5.5

The Key: Seattle has been unstoppable at home where it is 15-1 during the regular season the past two years.  I expect Green Bay to be more formidable this season, but this isn't a good spot for the Packers.  Seattle has the horses to get to Aaron Rodgers, who has been sacked an NFC-high 139 times since 2010.  He was sacked eight times the last time the Packers visited Seattle.  Green Bay's defense really struggled last season, ranking 24th in points allowed per game (26.8) and 25th in yards allowed per game (372.3).  Losing defensive tackle B.J. Raji for the season especially hurts with the way Seattle is capable of dominating the trenches.  The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS all-time as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points under Pete Carroll, winning these games by an average score of 28.1 to 11.1.  They are also 8-0 ATS all-time in home games in the first month of the season under Carroll, winning these contests by an average score of 26.8 to 13.1.  Lay the points.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas-San Antonio +7.5

The Key: UTSA was crushed 38-13 at Arizona last season, but I expect things to go a lot differently this year.  The Roadrunners bring back 20 starters (Arizona returns just 13), and those starters will be lacking no motivation as they seek revenge.  They were blown out by Houston last season but returned the favor with a 27-7 victory last week.  The UTSA defense came up big against Houston, and I expect that to be the difference here.  I also expect the Roadrunners to have a lot of success through the air offensively.  You want to take home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points in non-conference action if they had a completion percentage of 62% or higher last season.  Doing so has produced a 23-3 ATS mark since 1992.  This system has produced a perfect 7-0 ATS record the last three seasons.  Take the points.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Yankees -142

The Key: I'm fading Boston with Workman on the mound.  The Red Sox are 0-8 in his last eight starts, and he has a 6.52 ERA over his last seven.  The Yankees are 2-0 in Capuano's last two starts, and he was solid in each.  Capuano has been at his best at home where he has a 3.37 ERA in four starts. It is also worth noting that the Red Sox are 3-11 in their last 14 road games versus a left-handed starter.  This is a huge homestand for the Yankees, who trail Detroit by four games for the AL's second wild card slot.  Take New York.

7* AL Game of the Week on Angels -138

The Key: The Angels saw their six-game win streak come to an end yesterday, but I expect them to bounce back strong behind ace Jered Weaver.  The Halos are 4-0 in his last four starts, 5-0 in his last five division starts and 5-0 in his last five road starts versus teams that have a losing record.  The Astros are 0-5 in McHugh's last five starts when he gets the ball on five days of rest.  The Angels are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  We'll take the better team with the more proven starter on the mound.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -130

The Key: The Reds had yesterday off but are 0-5 in their last five games following a day off.  They are also 0-5 in their last five versus AL East clubs and 1-12 in their last 13 series openers.  The Orioles are 13-3 in their last 16 series openers.  They are also 6-0 in their last six Tuesday games and 4-0 in their last four interleague home games versus losing clubs.  Baltimore is 5-0 in Norris' last five series-opening starts, 5-0 in his last five home starts versus losing clubs and 4-0 in his last four starts as a home favorite.  The Reds are 3-7 in Latos' last 10 road starts.  Take Baltimore.

7* NCAAF Labor Day *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +3.5

The Key: Miami will be out for some serious revenge after getting crushed by Louisville in last season's Russell Athletic Bowl.  Plus, this won't be the same Louisville squad without Teddy Bridgewater and with just four defensive starters returning.  The Cardinals will also be without top playmaker Devante Parker.  Miami QB Brad Kaaya is worth the hype.  I expect him to lead the Hurricane offense to plenty of success against Louisville's inexperienced defensive unit.  Al Golden's teams are 34-19 ATS all-time as underdogs.  Take the points.

7* MLB Labor Day *HEAVY HITTER* on A's -135

The Key: Expect to see a hungry Oakland club after being swept in LA.  They now trail the Angels by five games so they know they need to take care of business in their next six home games.  The Athletics are 37-14 in their last 51 home games, 20-6 in their last 26 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 72-34 in their last 106 games as a favorite and 94-46 in their last 140 home games versus a right-handed starter.  The A's have seen Chris Young three times this season, winning two of the meetings.  Seattle hasn't seen Jason Hammel since very early last season, and that gives him a nice advantage.  Take Oakland.

6* NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Utah State +5.5

The Key: I'll grab the points in a game I expect to go right down to the wire.  Utah State is coming off a strong 9-5 campaign that was close to being even better.  The Aggies suffered losses at Utah and USC by 4 and 3 points, respectively, early last season to prevent them from a double-digit win campaign.  The Volunteers are in rebuilding mode with 28 underclassmen on their season-opening depth chart.  They have big concerns up front as they don't return a starter on the line on either side of the football.  The Aggies are led by QB Chuckie Keeton, who is the preseason MWC Offensive Player of the Year.  The Aggies also boast a stingy defense that features linebackers Kyler Fackrell and Zach Virgil and defensive end B.J. Larsen.  They anchor a stop unit that has held five of its last seven opponents to 14 points or less.  The Aggies are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall, 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.  The Volunteers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Take the points.

7* MLB Underdog Game of the Month on Reds +124

The Key: The Reds are showing excellent value at this price with Cueto on the hill.  He has a 2.65 road ERA on the season and has owned Pittsburgh throughout his career.  He's 16-5 (18-8 on the money line) with a 2.38 ERA in 26 starts against the Pirates.  The Reds are 4-0 in his last four starts versus Pittsburgh.  Liriano has a 4.78 home ERA on the season, and the Pirates are 0-5 in his last five starts.  They are 0-4 in his last four starts as a favorite and 0-4 in his last four starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  He's struggled against the Reds this season, and the Pirates are just 2-6 all-time in his starts against them.  Take the Reds.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Royals -145

The Key: Kansas City has the edge on the mound with Shields, who has a 3.45 ERA on the season.  The Royals are 25-8 the last 33 times Shields has gotten the ball on regular rest (4 days).  Also, Shields' clubs are 3-0 in his last three and 6-1 in his last seven starts versus Cleveland.  He's held the Indians to just four earned runs in 20 innings during a three-start win streak.  Cleveland's Bauer has been terrible on the road where he has a 6.19 ERA.  The Royals are 9-3 in their last 12 home games versus the Indians.  Take KC.

6* SEC *CA$H COW* on Arkansas +18.5

The Key: Auburn came out of nowhere to reach the BCS Championship last season.  It overachieved, and I expect it to take a step back this season.  Six of its wins came by eight points or less, and two of those were miracles (Georgia & Alabama).  Arkansas went 0-8 in SEC play last season so it will be looking to get out to a much better start.  The Razorbacks will draw confidence from last season's matchup when they trailed by just 11 points in the fourth quarter despite falling behind 28-3.  The Razorbacks were outgained by just 20 yards in the contest but were done in by a -3 turnover margin.  They ended up losing last year's meetings by 18 points, which is significant because they have won or lost by fewer than 19 points in 16 of the last 17 matchups.  That's a 16-1 trend I can get behind.  Take the points.

6* National TV Annihilator on Cal +11

The Key: Cal outgained Northwestern 548-508 in last year's home opener but fell 44-30 due to a pair of pick-six's in the fourth quarter.  Northwestern clearly had no answer for Jared Goff, who was able to pass for 455 yards.  I expect another big performance from him here, and I expect him to do a better job of taking care of the football.  As a result, the Golden Bears should be able to keep this one within the number.  The Wildcats are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  Take the points.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on UAB -2.5

The Key: UAB will be out for revenge when it takes the field Saturday at 12 PM ET.  The Blazers led by 14 points entering the fourth quarter in last year's matchup at Troy, but they ended up losing in OT.  With 15 starters back and home field on their side, I expect the Blazers to have their revenge.  The home team is 5-1 in the last six meetings, winning these games by an average of 7.2 points.  Troy has really struggled on the road where it is 2-8 in its last 10.  Lay the points with UAB.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Diamondbacks -137

The Key: The Rockies are a dead fade at this price considering how terrible they've been on the road.  They are 4-26 in their last 30 road games and are clearly not the same team without shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, outfielders Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer and catcher Wilin Rosario. Those players finished Nos. 1-4 last season on the team in RBIs, combining for 315 with 92 home runs.  It is also worth noting that Colorado is a dismal 5-22 in its last 27 series openers.  The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last five games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, and they are in good hands with Collmenter, who has a 2.85 ERA at home.  He's shown excellent command lately, and that's a great sign.  Consider that Arizona is 7-0 the last three seasons in Collmenter's starts if he has walked one batter or none in each of his last two outings.  Colorado's Bergman has a 6.75 ERA.  The Rockies are 1-6 in the last seven meetings and 18-40 in the last 58 meetings in Arizona.  Take Arizona.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas-San Antonio +10.5

The Key: The Roadrunners return 20 starters from a team that finished last season on a five-game win streak.  Larry Coker led UTSA to a 7-5 record last season, and he expects an even stronger campaign.  One of UTSA's blemishes a year ago was an ugly 59-28 home upset loss to Houston.  The Roadrunners won the yardage battle but had five turnovers and didn't force any.  That poor performance will be all the motivation Coker's squad will need here.  The Roadrunners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Take the points.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Temple +14

The Key: Vandy is being overvalued following an impressive 9-4 campaign.  Keep in mind, the Commodores bring back only 10 starters and lost one heck of a coach (James Franklin).  Temple went just 2-10 last season but made some serious strides down the stretch with P.J. Walker under center.  The Owls are a terrific 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog, and they were 5-0 ATS as a road dog last season.  They are also 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven August games.  Take the points.

6* MLB "Total" Annihilator on Rangers/Astros UNDER 8 (-113)

The Key: Look for this one to come in under the number as McHugh and Tepesch keep dealing.  McHugh has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts.  Tepesch has given up three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.  Texas will be seeing McHugh for the first time and should struggle as a result.  Tepesch has given up just two runs in two starts in Houston spanning 11 2-3 innings.  The under is 4-0 in the Rangers' last four games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150, 4-0-1 in their last five games when their opponent allows five runs or more in its previous game, 7-0-1 in their last eight games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game and 3-0-1 in their last four games following a win.  The under is 4-0-1 in Tepesch's last five starts and 6-0 in his last six division starts.  Take the Under.

6* NFLX *CA$H COW* on Rams +3

The Key: Jeff Fisher likes to enter the regular season with some momentum, as evidenced by his teams going 12-4 in his last 16 Week 4 preseason games.  Momentum becomes even more important here after losing Sam Bradford.  I look for the St. Louis defense to step up tonight, knowing it will likely have to carry the load this season.  Miami has been a poor preseason investment, going 2-9-1 ATS in all preseason games under coach Philbin.  Take the Rams.

7* NL East Game of the Year on Nationals -156

The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, I expect the Nationals to jump all over Philly early in this one.  Philadelphia's Kendrick owns an NL-worst 6.10 ERA since June 22 and has a 9.69 ERA in the first inning.  He has a 5.15 ERA in 23 career starts versus Washington, including an 8.02 ERA in his last four starts in the series.  Fister has been unbelievable with a 2.38 ERA on the season.  He also has a 1.64 ERA in three career starts versus Philadelphia.  The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200, 4-0 in Fister's last 4 road starts and 4-0 in his last four starts in the third game of a series.  The Phillies are 0-5 in Kendrick's last 5 Wednesday starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the Nationals.  Take Washington.

6* Run Line Rout on Royals -1.5 (+125)

The Key: After losing consecutive games for the first time since July 27 and 29, I expect the Royals to bounce back strong.  Duffy has been extremely reliable, giving up two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 13 starts.  He has a 2.53 ERA on the season and a 1.078 WHIP.  The Twins are 32-82 in their last 114 games versus starters with a WHIP of less than 1.150.  They are 1-18 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower.  The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last four starts as a home favorite, 5-0 in his last five series-opening starts and 5-0 in his last five starts versus the Twins.  Nolasco has a 9.20 ERA over his last three starts and a 7.32 road ERA on the season.  The Twins are 1-5 in the last six meetings and 4-12 in the last 16 meetings in Kansas City.  Take the Royals on the RL.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -131

The Key: I'll back one of the best home clubs in baseball here with Liriano on the hill. The Pirates are 20-8 in their last 28 at home.  They are in good hands with Liriano, who has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts.  The southpaw's clubs are 7-1 all-time in his starts versus St. Louis, and he's posted a tidy 2.34 ERA in these contests.  Lackey has a 6.50 ERA over his last three starts, and a Pittsburgh club that's batting an impressive .273 at home will welcome him to the mound.  The Pirates are 13-4 in their last 17 home games versus a right-handed starter.  The Cardinals are 5-12 in their last 17 meetings in Pittsburgh.  Take the Pirates.

6* NFLX *CA$H COW* on Bengals +3

The Key: After coming away empty handed in their first two preseason games, look for the Bengals to step it up in this regular-season dress rehearsal.  Marvin Lewis has never been skunked in the preseason as head man of the Bengals, and his squads have won at least two preseason games eight of the past 10 seasons.  I expect his Bengals to find the win column here.  You want to back preseason underdogs or pickems with a losing record when they are off an upset loss.  Doing so has produced a 50-22 ATS mark the last 10 seasons.  This system is already 3-0 ATS this preseason.  Take the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -137

The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, the Brewers will bear down and bounce back strong.  They are 8-1 in their last nine after losing the first two games of a series, and they have a long history of dominating the Pirates.  They are 74-34 in the last 108 meetings, including 51-14 in the last 65 in Milwaukee.  Fiers is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts while striking out 25 and walking three.  In other words, he's been completely dominant.  Worley has struggled of late, going 0-2 in his last two starts while giving up 11 runs in 10 1-3 innings.  Worley is 0-2 in two career starts in Milwaukee.  The Brewers have won two of Fiers' last three starts versus the Pirates.  Take Milwaukee.

6* NFLX *CA$H COW* on Texans +7

The Key: Denver is being overvalued following back-to-back impressive wins over the Seahawks and 49ers.  The Texans are loaded with defensive talent, and I expect them to be able to slow down Denver's aerial attack by getting a great push up front.  Houston has been in Denver all week practicing with the Broncos so the altitude shouldn't be an issue.  The practices were very competitive and chippy, and I expect a close, competitive game tonight.  You want to fade preseason home favorites that allowed three points or less in the first half last game if they are up against an opponent that's off a double-digit win.  Doing so has produced a 25-7 ATS mark since 1993.  This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last five seasons.  You also want to back preseason road teams that allowed 14 points or less last game if they are up against a team that led its previous game by 14 points or more at the half.  Doing so has produced a 23-5 ATS mark since 1993.  This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five seasons.  Take the points.

7* Mound Mismatch Game of the Month on Nationals -166

The Key: The Nationals, winners of 10 of 11, have the decisive edge in this matchup with Zimmermann getting the ball.  The right-hander has a 2.97 ERA on the season, a 2.85 ERA at home, a 2.75 ERA over his last three starts and a 1.83 ERA in his day starts.  Lincecum has a 4.50 ERA in his starts this season, a 6.06 ERA in his road starts, a 6.91 ERA over his last three starts and a 4.52 ERA in his day starts.  He has an ERA of 6.08 in nine starts versus Washington while Zimmermann has a 2.89 ERA in seven starts versus San Francisco.  The Giants are 0-6 in Lincecum's last 6 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 1-6 in his last seven starts versus the Nationals and 0-4 in his last four road starts versus the Nats.  The Nationals are 5-0 in their last five games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 6-0 in their last six games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 4-0 in Zimmermann's last four starts, 21-3 in his last 24 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 4-1 in his last five starts versus the Giants.  Take Washington.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Braves -103

The Key: Atlanta is absolutely on fire right now. The Braves cashed in an easy 8-0 win over the Reds in the series opener and have now won 6 of their last 7 overall. Not only is Atlanta getting great starting pitching, but they are averaging 6.1 runs and hitting .277 as a team over their last 7 games. I look for the Braves' bats to stay hot at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park and deliver another lopsided win. Atlanta is 24-8 in their last 32 games played on Friday and 8-2 in Minor's last 10 starts against the NL Central. Take the Braves.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Tigers -115

The Key: Detroit has won each of the first two games in this series and are now 5-2 in their last 7. The Tigers will be highly motivated to finish off the sweep, as they will send out David Price against his former team. Price is certainly going to have a chip on his shoulder to show the team that just traded him that they made a big mistake. Price is 31-12 in his last 43 road starts against a team that's averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits and the Tigers are 9-2 in their last 11 against an opposing starter with a ERA of 3.20 or better. Tampa Bay is just 1-7 in their last 8 games as a home underdog, 3-10 in their last 13 with a total of 6.5 or lower and 1-4 in Cobb's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Take the Tigers.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves +105

The Key: The Braves have taken the first two games of the series and have now won 5 straight overall. Atlanta's not only getting great starting pitching during this stretch, but they are heating up at the plate. The Braves are 5-0 in their last 4 against the NL Central and 5-0 in their las 5 games with a total set at 7.0-8.5 runs. Atlanta will be starting Alex Wood, who has a 2.92 ERA over 8 road starts and 1.86 ERA over his last 3. Pittsburgh is 0-7 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record, 0-5 in their last 5 against the NL East and 0-7 in their last 7 with a total set at 7.0-8.5 runs. Great spot to fade the Pirates as Gerrit Cole figures to struggle in his first start back after missing over a month on the DL. Take Atlanta.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Angels -121

The Key: Red Sox are 3-8 in their last 11 home games, 6-16 in their last 22 as a home dog and 1-4 in Webster's last 5 starts vs a team with a winning record. Webster has a 3-1 record of 4 starts, but his 4.79 ERA and 1.451 WHIP over that span informs he's been extremely fortunate. I look for LA to put up a big number and secure a win behind veteran ace Jered Weaver. The Angels are 7-1 in Weaver's last 8 starts when he comes in with a full 5 days of rest, 8-2 in his last 10 road starts with a total of 9.0-10.5 and a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 road starts against a team with a losing record. Take the Angels.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Browns +3

The Key: You want to play on preseason underdogs or pickems with a losing record that are off an upset loss.  Doing so has produced a 47-22 ATS mark the last 10 seasons.  You also want to fade all preseason teams when the line is +3 to -3 that allowed three points or less in the first half last game.  Doing so has produced a 17-6 ATS mark the last three seasons.  Cleveland's starters are expected to play about a half while Washington's starters are only expected to see around a quarter of action.  In addition, Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel are battling for the No. 1 QB spot, and I expect the Cleveland offense to open things up to give each player a chance to shine.  Take the points.

6* Run Line Rout on Nationals -1.5 (-105)

The Key: The Nationals are 6-0 in their last six games, winning them by an average of 2.2 runs.  They are also 5-0 in their last five home games, winning these by an average of 2.2 runs as well.  Nuno's clubs are 0-8 in his last eight starts and have lost these by 2.6 runs on average.  His clubs are 0-4 in his last four road starts and have lost these by 3.0 runs on average.  The Nats are 3-0 in Zimmerman's last three starts, winning them by 4.7 runs on average.  They are 4-0 in his last four home starts with these wins coming by an average of 4.5 runs.  The Diamondbacks are 3-30 in their last 33 games as a road underdog of +201 or greater while the Nationals are 22-5 in their last 27 games as a home favorite of -201 or greater.  Take Washington on the run line.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -113

The Key: I think Milwaukee relaxes here after beating Greinke and Kershaw.  The Dodgers, who haven't been swept all season, will bear down to salvage a game.  The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last seven games after losing the first two games of a series and 5-0 in their last five games after being held to two runs or less in their previous game.  The Brewers are 0-4 in their last four Sunday games.  Dan Haren's clubs are 3-0 in his three career starts versus Milwaukee.  He's posted an ERA of 0.90 in these games.  Milwaukee's Wily Peralta, on the other hand, has an ERA of 8.21 in two career starts versus the Dodgers.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on 49ers -4

The Key: After getting kicked 23-3 in Baltimore in their preseason opener, the 49ers will be looking for a much better performance as they make their debut in Levi's Stadium.  I expect coach Jim Harbaugh to go after the "W" here in the first game in the new stadium to set the tone that this is their house.  Harbaugh has taken the preseason seriously with his team going 3-1 each of the past two seasons.  Denver's Week 1 preseason game was more important than it would have been because it was playing the team that it was thumped by in the Super Bowl.  Week 2 will be all about evaluating talent.  John Fox typically doesn't play to win in the second week of the preseason, as evidence by his 4-8 record.  Harbaugh is 7-2 in Weeks 2-4 in the preseason.  Lay the points.

7* NFLX Game of the Year on Texans -3

The Key: After getting embarrassed 32-0 in his first game as head coach, Bill O'Brien will make sure his team performs much better in their preseason home opener.  Atlanta won its preseason opener but don't expect an encore performance.  Head coach Mike Smith places no emphasis on winning in the preseason.  He is 8-17 all-time in exhibition season, including 2-11 since the beginning of the 2011 season.  He is also 1-5 all-time in the second week of the preseason.  The Falcons don't have much after Matt Ryan in T.J. Yates and Sean Renfree, who combined to complete only 13 of 31 pass last week. Houston's QB stable of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum and Tom Savage has the edge.  This game means way more to Houston, which will be looking to gain some momentum under a new regime.  Lay the points.

6* MLB "Total" Blowout on Orioles/Indians Over 8.5

The Key: Look for plenty of runs to be scored here with Jimenez and Carrasco on the hill.  Carrasco was good against the Yankees in his first start back but will have a tough time dealing an encore performance versus a Baltimore club that has averaged 6.1 runs over its last 10 games.  Jimenez has a 4.51 ERA on the season and was rocked by the Indians in a 9-0 defeat earlier this season.  You want to play the "Over" on home teams when the total is 8.0 or 8.5 that have allowed three runs or less in two straight games if they average 4.5 runs per game or less and are facing an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 to 4.70.  Doing so has produced a 40-15 mark since 1997.  We've seen an average of 10.3 total runs scored in this situation.  Take the Over.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Raiders -2.5

The Key: This is a tough spot for Detroit, which hits the road with one fewer day to prepare than Oakland.  I expect the Raiders to be the more motivated side after a disappointing performance in their preseason opener.  Big improvement is expected in Oakland with the addition of some big-name veterans and a nice group of rookies.  I expect a solid game from Matt Schaub, who has looked great in camp but underwhelmed versus Minnesota.  He'll be looking to prove himself in front of the home fans.  The Raiders are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three preseason home games versus the Lions, winning these by 11.7 points on average.  Also, you want to play preseason favorites after a game in which they didn't force any turnovers.  Doing so has produced a 27-9 ATS mark the last five seasons.  These teams were favored by 3.3 points on average and won by an average of 8.2.

7* NL Non-Division Game of the Month on Nationals -148

The Key: The Nationals have the edge with Roark on the hill.  Roark has given up just one run in each of his last five starts versus NL foes, and the Nats went 5-0 in those games.  He has a 2.40 home ERA on the season.  The Nationals are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite and 4-0 in their last four games versus a right-handed starter.  They figure to have plenty of success versus Pittsburgh right-hander Morton, who has a 4.91 road ERA.  The Pirates are 0-4 in Morton's last four starts, and he was rocked in three of those.  The Pirates are also 0-4 in Morton's last four series-opening starts.  Take Washington.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Rockies -113

The Key: The Reds are 0-7 in their last seven road games versus teams with a losing home record, and they are 0-5 in the struggling Simon's last five starts.  He has a 4.78 ERA during this span, and I don't expect anything to come easy in his first start inside flighty Coors Field.  De La Rosa has a 1.86 ERA over his last three home starts, and the Rockies are an amazing 44-8 in his last 52 inside Coors.  Colorado is also 10-1 the last two seasons in his home starts when the money line is +100 to -150.  Take the Rockies.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Jaguars +4

The Key: The Bears are getting too much respect here.  They are a contender with fewer starting spots up for grabs.  Their focus is on roster evaluation.  The Jaguars have a lot of young guys that are vying for playing time.  Their QB competition especially plays in our favor.  Chad Henne is expected to play the entire first half, and I look for him to be focused knowing he needs to perform well to keep the Blake Bortles talk at a minimum.  Bortles has everything to gain from another strong performance.  I'm not big on Jordan Palmer or Jimmy Clausen, who will continue their battle to be Jay Cutler's backup.  The Jags are 17-5 ATS all-time in preseason road games played on a grass field.  Take the points.

7* MLB Run Line Rout on Angels -1.5 (+106)

The Key: The Angels are showing value on the run line given the edge they have on the mound with Weaver, who is 10-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last 18 starts against NL clubs.  The Phillies are 0-5 in Burnett's last five starts, losing these by an average of 4.4 runs while he's compiled a 6.66 ERA.  They are also 0-5 in his last five road starts, losing these by 4.8 runs on average.  Burnett's clubs are 0-4 in his last four starts versus the Angels.  The Phillies are 0-7 in their last seven interleague games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 in their last four interleague road games versus a team with a winning record.  They are also 0-8 in the last 8 meetings with the Angels.  Take LA on the run line.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -144

The Key: The Cardinals have the edge with Wainwright getting the ball.  The ace right-hander's 1.32 road ERA is the lowest road mark in baseball.  He's also had plenty of success versus the Marlins.  The Cards are 5-1 in his six career starts against them while he's posted a 2.25 ERA.  St. Louis is 12-1 since the start of last season in Wainwright's starts as a road favorite of -125 to -150.  It is 5-0 in his last five road starts when the total is 7.0-8.5 and 6-0 in his last six starts versus NL East clubs.  Wainwright's 1.019 WHIP is also noteworthy since the Marlins are 0-4 in their last four games versus a start with a WHIP less than 1.150.  Cosart is in poor form, having given up four runs or more in each of his last five starts.  Take St. Louis.

7* Run Line Rout of the Year on Mariners -1.5 (+105)

The Key: This is a terrible spot for Toronto, which played a 6-hour 37-minute, 19-inning marathon game yesterday and then had to make the long cross-country trip to Seattle.  To make matters worse, the Blue Jays will be facing Felix Hernandez, who has gone at least seven innings while allowing two runs or fewer in an MLB-record 15 consecutive starts.  He has a 1.42 ERA during this stretch while holding foes to a .168 average.  Seattle is 12-1 against the run line when playing on Monday this season, winning these games by an average score of 6.7 to 2.4.  You also want to fade road clubs with a +1.5 run line after a game where they had 17 hits or more if their bullpen has logged 13+ innings over the last three games.  Doing so has produced a 30-10 mark against the run line since 1997.  Take Seattle on the run line.

7* AL Game of the Week on Yankees -133

The Key: I'm not hesitating to fade the Indians with Carrasco on the mound.  He had a 6.95 ERA before being moved to the pen, and I expect his struggles to continue in a starting role.  The Indians are 3-14 in his last 17 starts.  New York's Kuroda has a 3.97 ERA in 23 starts and has been at his best in day games, posting a 3.55 ERA.  The Yankees are 4-0 in his last four starts as a home favorite.  It is also worth noting that Carrasco has an ERA of 7.98 in three career starts versus the Yankees while Kuroda has an ERA of 3.10 in three career starts versus the Indians.  The Yankees are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus Cleveland.  Take New York.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Titans -1

The Key: Head coach Ken Whisenhunt and the Titans enter the preseason with something to prove.  Tennessee is off yet another disappointing season and Whisenhunt is out to prove he's the guy that led Arizona to the Super Bowl, not the guy that couldn't get it done without Kurt Warner.  Mike McCarthy places very little emphasis on winning in the first and last weeks of the preseason, reserving the first week for evaluating those vying for backup roles.  In fact, he is 4-12 in the first and last week of the preseason as Packers head man.  Green Bay is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four preseason openers.  The Titans are 6-1 in their last seven preseason matchups with Green Bay, including 4-0 in their last four.  Take Tennessee.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -116

The Key: The Royals are the hottest team in the majors, going an MLB-best 13-3 since July 22, and they are in good hands with Shields, who typically finishes strong.  He has a 1.99 ERA over his last six starts and is an impressive 26-12 with a 3.15 ERA in the month of August.  He has a 3.42 ERA in four interleague starts this season.  San Francisco's Hudson hasn't been as successful in interleague play, as evidence by his 7.41 ERA against the AL this season.  The Royals are 32-15 in Shields' last 47 starts, including 11-4 in his last 15 starts versus teams that have a winning record.  The Royals are 5-0 in their last five games, 4-0 in their last four interleague games, 6-0 in their last six games as a favorite and 6-0 in their last six interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Giants are 24-49 in their last 73 interleague road games, 15-37 in their last 52 interleague road games versus a right-handed starter and 6-21 in their last 27 games versus a team with a winning record.  They are also 0-4 in Hudson's last four starts on 4 days' rest.  Take Kansas City.

7* NFLX Game of the Week on Rams -3

The Key: The Saints have made the postseason four of the past five seasons and are coming off an 11-5 finish.  They're proven, which means they're focus will be on evaluating young talent and getting to the regular season healthy.  The Rams play in a division that had three 10-win teams last season so they know they have some work to do.  I expect them to begin the preseason with a greater sense of urgency than their opponent.  The Rams actually defeated New Orleans 27-16 at home last season and led the game 27-3 heading into the fourth quarter.  That game was a glimpse of what Jeff Fisher's squad is capable of.  It also highlighted the issues the Saints have had on the road.  Take St. Louis.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -136

The Key: The Orioles have a major edge on the mound tonight.  Tillman has a 3.65 ERA on the season, a 2.78 ERA at home and a 2.00 ERA over his last three starts.  Masterson, meanwhile, has a 5.63 ERA on the season, a 6.80 ERA on the road and a 10.64 ERA over his last three starts.  He's also carrying an 8.31 ERA in his last three starts against Baltimore.  The Orioles are 28-11 in Tillman's last 39 starts versus a team with a winning record, 17-5 in his last 22 series-opening starts, 5-2 in his last seven interleague starts and 6-0 in his last six starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.  The O's are 6-0 in their last six series openers (St. Louis is 1-4 in its last 5), 4-0 in their last four interleague games as a favorite, 4-0 in their last four home games versus a right handed starter and 7-0 in their last seven games when their opponent scores five runs or more in its previous game.  Take the Orioles.

6* NFLX *CA$H COW* on Redskins +1

The Key: Washington is coming off an extremely disappointing season, and new head man Jay Gruden wants to make sure his team has plenty of momentum and confidence for the regular season.  The best way to gain confidence is to win, and his troops will be going for the "W" here.  The preseason doesn't mean anything to New England, which knows it is a strong contender in the AFC behind Tom Brady, who will not play in this game.  The Patriots are purely concerned with evaluating their young talent while making sure their starters get to the regular season healthy.  Behind RG3, the Redskins have Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy, who both have starting experience.  I'm not as sold on what the Patriots have behind Brady in Ryan Mallett and Jimmy Garoppolo.  Take the Redskins.

7* MLB Total of the Week on Indians/Reds Under 7.5 (-115)

The Key: We've seen each of the first three games of this series finish over the total with at least eight runs scored in each, but I expect this one to come in well under the number.  Homer Bailey has been dealing.  He's given up three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts, including one or no runs in four of those.  The under is 3-0 in his last three starts.  The under is also 5-0 in Bailey's last five starts versus the Indians.  Cleveland's House has held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts.  The Indians are 2-0 under in his last two starts and 3-0 under in his last three road starts.  Bailey has received just two runs of support over his last two starts, and I expect the Reds to have trouble scoring against a starter they aren't familiar with.  Take the under.

7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -145

The Key: I'll fade the Dodgers with Haren on the hill.  They are 0-5 in his last five starts, during which he has posted a 10.03 ERA.  Haren has struggled on the road all season, as evidenced by his 5.40 ERA away from Chavez Ravine.  The Angels' are 10-3 in Shoemaker's 13 career starts, including 2-0 in his last two.  He's been strong at home where he has a 2.76 ERA in seven starts this season.  The Dodgers are 27-57 in their last 84 interleague road games, 0-5 in their last five interleague games versus a right-handed starter and 0-4 in their last four games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Angels are 37-15 in their last 52 at home, 5-0 in their last five home games following a road trip of seven days or more and 8-0 in their last eight Game 3's of a series.  The Halos are also 25-9 in their last 34 home games versus the Dodgers.  Take the Angels.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -139

The Key: The Pirates will be at home for the first time since July 23, and home field has treated them well.  They are 16-5 in their last 21 home games and 41-16 in their last 57 home games following a road trip of seven days or more.  They are 6-0 in their last six home games versus clubs with losing records and 4-0 in their last four versus NL East opponents.  They're also 6-0 in their last six home games versus the Marlins.  Pittsburgh is in good hands with Morton, who has a 1.36 ERA in his past six starts at PNC Park.  The Pirates are 4-0 in his last four home starts and 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Marlins.  He's also 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two career home starts versus Miami.  The Marlins are 4-12 in Hand's last 16 starts and 1-7 in his last eight starts versus a team with a winning record.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Interleague Game of the Year on Dodgers -125

The Key: This is a tough spot for the Angels, who make the long cross-country trip from Tampa Bay to face Zack Greinke at Chavez Ravine where he has a 2.27 ERA since joining the Dodgers.  The Dodgers are 20-4 in his last 24 home starts, 12-1 in his last 13 home starts as a favorite of -125 to -175 and 7-0 in his last seven home starts when the total is 6.5 or lower.  The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last six games versus winning teams and 6-0 in their last six home games versus teams with winning road records.  Greinke has been sharp in his last two starts, giving up one run in 15 innings.  Garrett Richards has struggled lately, giving up eight runs in 13 innings in his last two starts.  The Angels are 1-5 in Richards' last six starts as an underdog.  Take the Dodgers.

6* Hall of Fame Game *CA$H COW* on Bills -1

The Key: The Bills have superior depth at QB with Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel behind EJ Manuel.  Lewis made five starts for the Bills last season and performed well, throwing for 1,092 yards with four touchdowns and one interception.  He added 52 rushing yards and a score on the ground.  Tuel wasn't as effective but gained valuable experience in a pair of starts nevertheless.  And, it seems the staff is leaning toward Tuel as the backup, which speaks to his offseason progress.  The Bills also have former Oregon quarterback Dennis Dixon as a fourth QB.  The Giants don't have the same level of talent or depth behind Eli Manning in Curtis Painter and Ryan Nassib.  Plus, Buffalo head man Doug Marrone knows Nassib well from coaching him at Syracuse.  Take the Bills.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -126

The Key: Garza has struggled on the road where he has a 4.87 ERA.  He's also struggled against the Cardinals, as evidenced by the 4.81 ERA he's posted in nine starts against them.  Garza is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts versus the Cardinals this season.  His clubs are 0-4 all-time in his starts in St. Louis, during which he's posted a 9.56 ERA.  Jhonny Peralta is 13 for 30 against Garza, Matt Holliday is 9 for 24, Matt Adams is 6 for 8 and A.J. Pierzynski is 4 for 14 with two home runs.  The Brewers are 2-6 in Garza's last eight road starts and 1-6 in his last seven starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  The Cardinals are 70-31 in their last 101 home games versus right-handed starters.  I expect Lackey to provide a spark for the Cards.  He's 18-10 with a 3.07 ERA against NL teams.  The Brewers are 19-39 in the last 58 meetings.  Take St. Louis.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mets -123

The Key: The Mets lost the first game of the series 5-1, but they are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss, 4-0 in their last four games after allowing five runs or more and 5-0 in their last five games after being held to two runs or less.  They are in excellent hands with deGrom getting the ball.  The right-hander is 4-0 in his last four starts while giving up just two runs in 27 1-3 innings.  Peavy's clubs are 0-10 in his last 10 starts and 0-8 in his last eight road starts.  He has a 5.87 road ERA on the season while deGrom has a 1.83 home ERA.  Take the Mets.

7* MLB Run Line Rout on Tigers -1.5 (-115)

The Key: Justin Verlander has been unstoppable against the NL, going 24-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 31 interleague starts, including 13-0 in his last 13 decisions.  The Tigers are 2-0 in his two career starts versus the Rockies, and he's posted a 1.84 ERA in these contests.  Verlander is also 14-0 with a 2.14 ERA in 15 interleague home starts.  He should be able to have his way with a Colorado club that is 0-6 in its last six and 4-18 in its last 22 interleague road games.  The Rockies are 2-15 in their last 17 road games and 10-29 in their last 39 games overall.  Colorado's Franklin Morales has struggled in interleague play with a 5.76 ERA in 21 appearances.  The Rockies are 0-4 in his starts versus the AL this season, during which he's posted a 7.94 ERA.  Take the Tigers on the run line.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Indians -128

The Key: The Indians are an impressive 38-15 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 under Francona, and I'll gladly get behind them at this price against a Seattle club they are 7-1 against in the last eight home meetings.  Seattle's Chris Young hasn't had the same stuff on the road where he has a 4.25 ERA.  Plus, Cleveland should benefit from having had a look at him just a month ago.  The Mariners are 1-4 in Young's last five starts as a road underdog.  It is also worth noting that Seattle is just 1-5 in its last six Game 3's of a series.  The Indians are 2-0 in McAllister's last two home starts versus the Mariners.  They are 8-3 in his last 11 starts as a favorite and 5-1 in his last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take Cleveland.

7* AL Central Game of the Year on Royals -144

The Key: The Royals have a significant advantage with Danny Duffy on the mound.  The southpaw has a 2.47 ERA and a WHIP of 1.078 on the season.  He is in top form, holding opponents to one earned run or none in five of his last six starts.  The Royals are 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Twins.  He's held them to one earned run in his last two starts spanning 12 1-3 innings.  The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last four starts as a favorite.  Minnesota is 30-78 in its last 108 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150, including 0-12 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or less.  It has lost these 12 by 4.3 runs on average.  Minnesota's Phil Hughes is in poor form with a 6.31 ERA over his last seven starts.  He's given up at least five runs five times during this stretch.  He appeared to be on his way to another poor outing in his last start when he gave up two runs in three innings before leaving in the fourth after being hit on the right ankle with a comebacker.  Hughes has an ugly 5.89 ERA in nine starts versus Kansas City.  The Twins are 4-10 in their last 14 meetings in Kansas City.  Take the Royals.

6* MLB Bailout on Cardinals +104

The Key: This is a tough spot for the Padres, who played in Atlanta yesterday and then had to make the long cross-country trek home.  While the St. Louis offense has struggled this season, it is still better than San Diego's offense, which is batting only .218 and averaging 3.1 runs per game. The Cards are batting .251 and averaging 3.7 runs per game.  St. Louis' Lynn has taken care of business against weak offensive teams.  In fact, the Cards are 9-0 the last 2 seasons in his starts versus NL clubs averaging 3.8 runs or less per game.  They have defeated these clubs by an average score of 7.3 to 2.6.  The Cardinals are 74-32 in the last 106 meetings.  Take St. Louis.

6* MLB Line Mistake on Rockies +107

The Key: Colorado has struggled on the road but shouldn't be plus-money given the edge it has on the mound with De La Rosa, who has a 1.40 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Chicago's Jackson has a 10.29 ERA over his last 3 starts.  De La Rosa has a 2.37 ERA in 5 career starts versus the Cubs with the Rockies going 4-1 in these outings.  Jackson has a 12.66 ERA in 8 career starts versus the Rockies, and his clubs are 1-5 in his last 6 starts against them.  The Rockies are 42-15 in De La Rosa's last 57 starts versus a team with a losing record.  The Cubs are 16-36 in Jackson's last 52 starts, including 0-12 in his last 12 starts on regular rest (4 days).  Take Colorado.

7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Marlins +1.5 (-135)

The Key: The Marlins, who are 5-0 in their last five games, are showing major value catching runs at home at this price.  Strasburg is not in good form (5.00 ERA L3 starts), and he's struggled on the road all season (5.09 ERA).  Strasburg has also struggled in Miami, giving up 7, 7, 4 and 6 runs in his last 4 starts there.  The Nationals went 1-3 in these starts, are 2-6 in Strasburg's last 8 starts overall and 2-5 in his last 7 road starts.  Alvarez has been unbelievable at home where he has a 1.64 ERA.  The Marlins are 13-3 in his last 16 starts and 8-1 in his last 9 home starts.  He has a solid 3.19 ERA in 6 starts versus Washington.  Take the Marlins on the run line.

7* National League Game of the Week on Reds -125

The Key: The Reds have lost eight of nine, but six of the losses came on the road to the Yankees and Brewers and two came to the Nationals.  I expect Cincinnati to get off the snide here against an Arizona club that is 15 games under .500.  The Reds are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus losing clubs and 8-2 in their last 10 home games versus teams with losing road records.  The D-backs are 4-9 in their last 13 road games and 1-5 in their last six road games versus a right-handed starter.  Cincy's Bailey has a 2.79 ERA over his last seven home starts, and the Reds are 2-0 all-time in his starts versus Arizona.  Cincy is 11-4 in its last 15 versus the D-backs, including 5-1 in the last six and 3-0 in the last three.  Arizona is 5-19 since 1997 in road games when seeking revenge for two straight losses to an opponent as a home favorite.  It is also 4-12 this season when seeking revenge from two straight home losses to an opponent.  Take the Reds.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -132

The Key: The Yankees are 39-12 in their last 51 home games versus the Blue Jays, including 21-3 since the start of the 2012 season.  Look for New York's dominance over Toronto to continue here.  Toronto's Happ has struggled on the road where he has a 5.87 ERA.  He's also struggled versus the Yankees, as evidenced by the 5.22 ERA he's posted against them in seven career starts.  The Blue Jays are 0-4 in his last four starts versus the Yankees.  The Jays are 3-11 in their last 14 road games, 5-14 in their last 19 as an underdog and 2-10 in their last 12 Game 3's of a series.  Toronto isn't familiar with Greene, who has a 2.79 ERA on the season.  Take the Yankees.

7* MLB Game of the Week on White Sox -165

The Key: Chicago has a huge advantage with Sale on the mound.  The southpaw is 9-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.863 WHIP.  His WHIP is extremely significant because Minnesota is 0-11 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower.  The Twins have lost these 11 by 4.0 runs on average.  It is also worth noting that they are 30-77 in their last 107 games versus starters with a WHIP less than 1.150.  The White Sox are 15-2 in Sale's last 17 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 5-1 in his six career starts versus the Twins.  Minnesota is 0-5 in its last five versus losing clubs and 0-6 in its last six home games versus losing clubs.  Take Chicago.

7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Astros -123

The Key: The Marlins check in off a 3-2 win in Atlanta while the Astros are coming off a 13-1 defeat in Oakland.  However, you want to fade teams off a win of two runs or less when they are up against an opponent off a loss of 12 runs or more.  Doing so has produced a 28-11 mark since 1997 and a 9-1 mark the last five seasons.  Houston's Keuchel has struggled over his last five starts, but all five were on the road.  I expect a strong performance from him at home where he's given up just four runs in his last 23 innings.  Miami's Hand has a 5.02 ERA in six starts.  The Marlins are 3-11 in his last 14 starts, 1-6 in his last seven road starts, 0-4 in his last four series-opening starts and 0-4 in his last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Marlins are 0-4 in their last four interleague games, 0-4 in their last four interleague games as an underdog, 0-4 in their last four versus AL West clubs and 0-4 in their last four versus losing clubs.  They are also 38-86 in their last 124 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The Astros are 38-15 in their last 53 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take Houston.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mariners -128

The Key: Off back-to-back losses to the Mets, I like Seattle to bounce back strong behind Iwakuma.  The Mariners are 14-4 all-time in his starts following two consecutive losses or more.  Iwakuma has a 2.95 ERA and a 0.994 WHIP on the season, a 2.81 home ERA and a 0.937 home WHIP on the season and a 1.59 ERA and 0.662 WHIP over his last three starts.  The Orioles are 0-4 in their last four games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150.  Chen's numbers don't stack up.  He has a 4.21 ERA and 1.303 WHIP on the season and a 4.68 ERA and 1.323 WHIP on the road.  Plus, he is 0-2 in his last two starts against the Mariners, giving up eight runs in 11 innings.  You want to fade underdogs of +100 or higher that are starting a pitcher with a winning percentage above 70% if they are up against an AL opponent that is starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better.  Doing so has produced a 54-12 (82%) mark the last five seasons.  Take Seattle.

7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on Rockies +1.5 -115

The Key: The Rockies are showing a ton of value catching runs at home at a very reasonable price with De La Rosa on the mound.  The Rockies have lost seven in a row, but they are 21-3 the last two seasons in De La Rosa's starts following a loss.  This trend tightens up to a near-perfect 9-1 if they are off three consecutive defeats or more.  They are a jaw-dropping 43-8 in his last 51 home starts and 12-1 the last two seasons in his day starts.  It is also worth noting that the Rockies are 5-1 in De La Rosa's last six starts versus Nationals.  Strasburg hasn't had the same stuff on the road where he has a 4.92 ERA.  Take Colorado on the run line.

7* MLB Total of the Week on Astros/A's Under 7.5 (-105)

The Key: Oakland busted out at the plate Sunday but was batting just .234 this month prior.  Expect its offensive struggles to continue against Oberholtzer, who has a 3.09 ERA over his last five starts.  He's allowed a total of two earned runs in 11 2-3 innings in two career starts in Oakland.  The under is 2-0 in those starts.  Houston doesn't figure to get much of anything off Kazmir, who has given up two or fewer runs in 10 of his last 12 outings and has a 1.57 ERA at home in 2014.  He's given up three earned runs or fewer in three career home starts versus the Astros.  The under is 3-0 in those starts.  The under is 4-0 in Kazmir's last four home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  It's also 6-0-1 in Oberholtzer's last seven starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  Take the under.

7* Interleague Game of the Week on Tigers -134

The Key: Detroit is a major league-best 28-16 on the road and has won 11 of its last 14 away from home while averaging 5.9 runs and batting .302.  Look for its road dominance to continue here with Verlander on the mound.  The Tigers are 22-6 in his last 28 interleague starts, and he has a 2.12 ERA over his last 14 regular-season starts versus the NL.  Detroit is 9-0 all-time under Ausmus in road games following six consecutive games versus division foes.  It has won by an average score of 7.1 to 2.9 in this spot.  The Tigers are also 7-0 in their last seven games with a total of 9.0-10.5 and 4-0 in their last four interleague games versus a left-handed starter.  The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last four games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Take Detroit.

7* AL Game of the Week on Tigers -130

The Key: The Tigers are 5-1 in their last six games after losing the first three games of a series, and I expect them to improve on this trend here.  They are still 35-16 in their last 51 home meetings with the Indians.  Cleveland hasn't hit southpaw starters well, averaging just 3.8 runs per game against them on the season.  It will have a tough time getting to Smyly, who has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 home starts.  He's also been tough on the division with a 2.87 ERA versus AL Central foes this season.  Cleveland's Tomlin will be tested by a Detroit offense that is averaging 4.9 runs per game off right-handed starters.  He has allowed four runs or more in five of his last six starts and has a 7.06 ERA in four career starts versus Detroit.  The Indians are 1-5 in Tomlin's last six starts and 0-2 in his two career starts in Detroit.  Take the Tigers.

7* MLB Game of the Week on Pirates -144

The Key: The Rockies are just 15-36 in their last 51 overall, 31-67 in their last 98 on the road and 1-10 in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning record.  The Pirates are 4-0 in their last four at home, and I expect them to keep right on rolling against this struggling Colorado club.  Charlie Morton has been one tough cookie at home where he has posted a 1.10 ERA over his last five starts.  The right-hander has a 1.93 ERA in two career starts at PNC against Colorado.  Colorado's Brett Anderson has a 4.95 ERA on the season and a 5.14 ERA over his last three starts.  His clubs are 1-6 in his last seven starts.  You want to fade July NL road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 that allow 4.8 runs per game or more.  Doing so has produced a 41-7 mark the last five seasons.  This system is a near perfect 9-1 the last three seasons.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -117

The Key: The Cardinals have the edge with Lynn getting the ball.  He's 6-2 with a 2.83 ERA in 10 home starts.  He was rocked in L.A. last month but had a blister on his middle finger that limited him to throwing all fastballs.  Prior to that, he was 4-0 with a 1.40 ERA versus the Dodgers.  With his finger healed, I expect him to go back to dominated L.A.  Haren has been rocked in his last two starts (12 runs allowed in 9 1-3 innings), and he's been hit hard on the road all season (5.05 ERA).  The Dodgers are 2-5 in Haren's last seven road starts while the Cardinals are 7-2 in Lynn's last nine starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning record and 67-28 in their last 95 home games versus a right-handed starter.  The Dodgers are 3-10 in their last 13 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 17-38 in the last 55 meetings in St. Louis.  Take the Cards.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -144

The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with the southpaw Ryu against a San Diego club that is batting .195 and averaging just 2.6 runs per game versus left-handed starters.  The Dodgers are 19-5 in Ryu's last 24 starts versus a team with a losing record.  Ryu is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.93 in three career starts versus the Padres.  The Dodgers are batting .265 and averaging 4.3 runs per game off right-handed starters.  The Padres are 1-6 in Ross' last seven starts, including 0-3 in his road starts during this stretch.  The Padres are 0-4 in his last four division starts, 0-4 in his last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in his last four starts following a team loss.  The Padres are also 0-3 in his last three starts versus the Dodgers.  Take Los Angeles.

7* AL Central Game of the Month on Royals -117

The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, the Royals will bear down and get one back this evening.  Kansas City is an outstanding 42-19 in its last 61 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and I'll gladly get behind it at this price with Shields on the hill.  The Royals are 30-12 in Shields' last 42 starts, 14-5 in his last 19 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 10-3 in his last 13 starts versus a team with a winning record.  He was hit hard the last time he faced Detroit and will be extremely focused here as a result.  Porcello is having an outstanding season, but he isn't the same caliber of Shields.  Take Kansas City.

7* Interleague Game of the Month on Rockies -157

The Key: The Rockies are worth the price at home with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound.  They are an unbelievable 42-9 in his last 51 home starts and 18-3 in his last 21 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Rockies are 16-6 in their last 22 games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 14-3 in their last 17 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  I do not see inexperienced starter Kris Johnson faring well in his first starts at flighty Coors against a Colorado offense that is batting .312 there.  The Twins are 4-12 in their last 16 interleague games, 1-5 in their last six interleague games as an underdog and 0-5 in their last five series openers.  Take Colorado.

7* American League Game of the Month on Angels -116

The Key: The Angels are showing a lot of value at this price versus a Texas club that has dropped 18 of 21.  The Halos have lost eight straight versus the Rangers in Texas, and will be out to bring that skid to an end.  They're looking at this series as an opportunity to gain more ground on the A's, and I expect them to be extremely focused.  The Angels are 7-0 in their last seven division contests while the Rangers are 0-8 in their last eight versus AL West foes.  The Rangers are even 0-4 in their last four home games versus a team with a losing road record and 0-7 in their last seven games versus a starter with a WHIP above 1.300.  I like LA here regardless of who gets the start.  The southpaw Santiago is scheduled, and the Rangers are 0-6 in their last six games versus a left-handed starter.  Texas is really struggling to generate offense, averaging just 3.6 runs over its last 11 games.  The Halos are averaging 5.8 runs over their last 19 games.  I don't see Texas' Lewis, who has a 6.54 ERA at home, having an answer for this offense.  Texas is 1-10 this season as a home dog of +100 or higher.  Take LA.

6* National League Annihilator on Pirates +108

The Key: The Pirates are showing value at this price with Volquez on the mound.  The right-hander is in top form, going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA over his last three starts.  St. Louis is far from an offensive juggernaut.  In fact, its on-base percentage is just .310.  This is significant because Volquez's clubs are 11-1 the last two seasons in his starts in the second half of the schedule versus NL teams with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse.  The Cardinals are 0-4 in Miller's last four starts, during which he's compiled a 7.32 ERA.  Volquez's clubs are 4-2 in his last six starts versus the Cards while the Cards are 2-5 all-time in Miller's starts versus the Pirates.  You want to take road teams with a hot starting pitcher who has an ERA lower than 2.50 over his last three starts when matched up against a team with a cold starter who has a WHIP of 2.250 or higher over his last three starts.  Doing so has produced a 34-9 mark the last 5 seasons.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* MLB Run Line Rout on Brewers -1.5 (+107)

The Key: Philly doesn't have enough pop at the plate to get to Lohse, who has a 2.10 ERA in seven home starts this season.  The Phillies are batting just .238 on the season, and that doesn't bode well for them here.  Milwaukee is a 100 percent perfect 8-0 against the run line this season in Lohse's starts versus NL clubs batting .245 or worse, and it has won these games by an average of 3.5 runs.  Philly has managed to win the first two games of this series, but the Brewers are a 100 percent perfect 9-0 against the run line the last three seasons in home games when seeking revenge for two straight upset losses at home to an opponent.  They have won by an average of 5.2 runs in this spot.  I like Milwaukee's chances of getting to Hernandez, who has a 6.75 ERA in seven road starts this season.  Take Milwaukee on the run line.

6* MLB Line Mistake on Royals -109

The Key: Kansas City should be a larger favorite given the edge it has on the mound with Vargas, who has a 1.52 ERA on the road this season and has won his last two starts in Tampa Bay while giving up no earned runs in 13 innings.  This is Hellickson's first start back, and I'm expecting plenty of rust after he went 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA in six rehab starts.  He has a 6.18 lifetime ERA versus the Royals with the Rays going 0-3 in his last three starts against them.  The Rays are 1-7 in Hellickson's last eight starts versus a team with a winning record.  The Royals are 12-4 in their last 16 road games, 28-11 in their last 39 games as a road favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 against Tampa Bay.  Take Kansas City.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -138

The Key: The Braves are 5-0 in their last five Game 2's of a series while the Mets are 6-22 in their last 28 Game 2's, and I expect these trends to continue.  Atlanta's Teheran has a 2.29 ERA on the season, a 1.79 ERA in division play and a 1.44 ERA in four starts versus the Mets.  The Braves are 8-1 in his last nine road starts versus teams with a losing record.  New York's deGrom has struggled under the lights.  The Mets are 0-7 in his night starts, during which he's posted a 4.99 ERA.  They are also 0-4 in his home starts.  New York is a lousy 28-62 in its last 90 games as a home underdog.  Take the Braves.

6* American League Annihilator on Yankees -142

The Key: The Yankees have the edge on the mound with Tanaka, who has a 2.27 ERA on the season.  They are 12-3 in his last 15 starts and 7-1 on the season in his road starts.  Tanaka is facing Cleveland for the first time and hasn't lost to an opponent he faces for the first time.  New York is 8-1 in its last nine road games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Cleveland's Bauer has a 4.42 ERA on the season.  The Indians are 1-6 in their last seven home games versus a right-handed starter.  The Yankees are 5-0 in their last five, 12-2 in their last 14 and 26-8 in their last 34 versus Cleveland.  Take New York.

6* AL Run Line Rout on Angels -1.5 (+123)

The Key: Toronto is struggling at the plate.  It hit .180 and went 0 for 20 with runners in scoring position while being outscored 14-4 in a four-game series sweep in Oakland.  The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last six road games and have lost these by an average of 3.5 runs.  Their struggles figure to continue as they get set to face Weaver without Encarnacion, who is second in the majors with 26 homers and 70 RBIs.  The Angels are 10-0 in their last 10 home games and have won these by 3.1 runs on average.  Weaver has a 2.75 ERA at home and is 9-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 11 starts versus Toronto.  He's 4-0 in his last four home starts versus the Jays with a 1.99 ERA.  LA won those four by 4.3 runs on average.  Bautista is just 1 of 12 against Weaver.  The Halos are 22-5 as a favorite of -150 or higher this season, winning these contests by an average score of 6.0 to 3.4.  Take LA.

7* Run Line Rout of the Month on Nationals -1.5 (+126)

The Key: Strasburg is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last nine home starts while Tillman has an ERA of 5.53 in 10 road starts and an 11.90 ERA in three interleague starts.  Tillman is averaging only 5.5 innings per start on the road and 3.8 innings in interleague play.  In other words, an early departure figures to put a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has been taxed the last two days.  Showalter said that certain relievers won't take the mound after his pen worked 12 1-3 innings over the last two days.  You want to fade underdogs with a money line of +150 or more that are starting a pitcher who has an ERA of less than 2.50 over his last five starts if the bullpen has worked nine innings or more in the last two games.  Doing so has produced a 66-13 mark since 1997, a 22-4 mark the last five seasons, a 14-1 mark the last three seasons and a 2-0 mark this season.  Teams fitting into this system have lost by 2.3 runs on average.  Take Washington on the run line.

6* MLB Early Annihilator on Reds -117

The Key: The Reds are showing value at this price at home where they are 30-12 in their last 42 against the Brewers.  Latos has allowed just two runs in his last 14 innings of work spanning two starts, and he typically performs well when given extra rest.  In fact, the Reds are 18-4 in his last 22 starts on five days' rest.  They are 24-7 in his last 31 home starts.  Gallardo was hit hard in a loss in Cincinnati earlier this season, and the Brewers are 3-9 in his last 12 road starts versus the Reds.  Take Cincy.

7* MLB Total of the Month on Rays/Tigers Under 8

The Key: I expect a pitcher's duel between Sanchez and Archer to finish under the number.  Sanchez has an ERA of 2.34 in his last 10 starts while holding opponents to a .195 average.  Tampa Bay's Archer has posted a 1.65 ERA over his last nine starts.  The "under" is 10-1 in Archer's last 11 starts as an underdog,  5-0 in his last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150, 5-0 in his last five starts versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 in his last four road starts versus a team with a winning record.  The "under" is 20-8-2 in the last 30 meetings between these clubs and 5-1 in the last six games umpire Mark Carlson has been behind home plate.  Take the under.