Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Wisconsin/USC Holiday Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -3.5

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers went 9-3 this year, but they did not beat a team that finished with a winning record.  They played about as easy a schedule as you can have, and they lost to the three best teams they played in Alabama, Iowa and Northwestern.  They played the 70th most difficult schedule this year.  To compare, USC took on the 3rd most difficult schedule.  I just think this USC team is going to overwhelm the Badgers athletically.  The Trojans have a much more explosive offense, and their defense is good enough to limit a lackluster Wisconsin offense that only averages 3.8 yards per carry.  The Trojans lost in the Pac-12 Championship to Stanford.  That sets them up for a good situation here.  The Trojans are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  Take USC.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Dallas Mavericks +4

The Key: This is a great spot to fade the Golden State Warriors considering how banged up their are right now.  They are likely to be without MVP Steph Curry, who had an MRI today on his leg and should be given the night off.  Harrison Barnes and Leandro Barbose remain out, Festus Ezeli is questionable, and Draymond Green is expected to play through an ankle injury.  The Warriors are ripe for the picking tonight, and I look for the Mavericks to knock them off.  The Mavs are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with their only loss coming by 4 points at Toronto.  The Mavs are 4-0 in their last four home games, and they haven't lost any of their last 12 home games by more than 4 points, making for a perfect 12-0 angle backing them tonight.  Take Dallas.

6* Sun Belt Game of the Week on Texas-Arlington -4.5

The Key: This Texas-Arlington team might be the best-kept secret in all of college basketball.  They have gotten off to a 9-2 start this season with some very impressive wins already.  They beat Ohio State 73-68 as 18.5-point road dogs, Memphis 68-64 as 12-point road dogs, and UTEP 76-62 as 1-point road dogs.  They also took Texas to overtime on the road with their only other loss coming at LA Tech.  Georgia State doesn't really have an impressive win yet.  It lost its two toughest games on the road to Ole Miss by 9 and UAB by 7.  I believe UT-Arlington wants to make a statement and let Georgia State know that the Sun Belt belongs to them this season.  Arlington is 5-0 at home this season, winning by 31.0 points per game to boot.  Georgia State is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.  Arlington is 8-1 ATS in all games this season.  Take UT-Arlington.

6* Michigan State/Iowa NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Iowa -2.5

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans are the #1 team in the country, yet they are underdogs tonight to the Iowa Hawkeyes.  I think the Hawks are favored for good reason here.  All three of their losses this season have come by 6 points or less, and they should have beaten Iowa State in a 1-point road loss as they held a 20-point lead in that game.  They have blown out both Marquette and Wichita State by 20-plus points this season away from home.  Iowa is 6-0 at home this season, winning by 21.8 PPG.  Michigan State is without its top player in Denzel Valentine.  In its last game without him, it needed overtime to beat Oakland.  I don't expect the Spartans to be so fortunate now on the road against a quality opponent in the Hawkeyes.  Take Iowa.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

The Key: I'll gladly fade the Miami Heat tonight given this awful spot for them.  The Heat will be playing their 4th game in 5 days off their 105-111 loss to the Brooklyn Nets last night.  They'll have nothing left to give against Memphis, which will be playing just its 3rd game in 7 days.  The Grizzlies want revenge from a 97-100 loss at Miami on December 13 in which they blew a 16-point 3rd quarter lead and watched the Heat score the final 11 points of the game.  They have won four straight home meetings with the Heat.  Miami is 0-7 ATS vs. teams who force 16 or more turnovers per game this season.  Memphis is 19-9 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  Take Memphis.

7* Baylor/UNC Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on North Carolina -2

The Key: Baylor doesn't even want to be playing in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  The Bears had higher hopes coming into the season, but after losses in their final two games to TCU and Texas, they were left out of the four-team playoff.  Injuries to this team have really hurt their cause.  They will be without the best receiver in the country in Corey Coleman and one of the best running backs in the Big 12 in Shock Linwood.  They are also playing a 3rd-string quarterback.  I just see no way they'll be able to hang with this improved UNC squad whose only losses have come by a TD or less to Clemson and South Carolina.  Baylor has committed at least 3 turnovers in three straight games, and it is 2-14 ATS in its next game after committing at least 3 turnovers in 3 straight.  Take North Carolina.

7* Bengals/Broncos MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -4

The Key: The Denver Broncos rank 1st in total defense, 1st in rushing defense and 1st in passing defense.  This is simply the most dominant defense I've seen in a long time.  It will be the difference in why the Broncos win this game.  AJ McCarron will be making just his second start, and after an uninspiring effort against a bad 49ers defense last week, he will be awful against the league's top defense this week in the Broncos.  Brock Osweiler has played well this season and is the better quarterback here on an offense that has more potential than the Bengals.  I think he'll make enough plays and not turn the ball over, which will be enough for the Broncos to win this game by 4-plus points.  Bets on favorites off a road loss who are winning between 60% and 75% of their games in the second half of the season are 33-12 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  The Broncos are 8-0 ATS the game after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.  Take Denver.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

The Key: The Nets have lost 7 of their last 8 games and are catching too many points tonight as a result.  The Heat have covered the spread in each of their last 2 games and are laying too many points now.  I like the Nets here as 8.5-point dogs.  This team has been getting too many points on the road all season, as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The last 4 meetings between the Nets and Heat have all been decided by 6 points or less.  There's a good chance this one will be as well.  Take Brooklyn.

7* Packers/Cardinals NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +5.5

The Key: The Green Bay Packers are playing up to their potential again.  They have won three straight and Mike McCarthy just took over the play-calling two weeks ago.  They put up 435 yards and 28 points against the Cowboys and 30 points against the Raiders in their last two contests with McCarthy making the decisions.  He is a master with the screen game, and those screen plays are going to be huge against this aggressive Cardinals defense that is vulnerable.  We saw it two weeks ago against the Vikings, who nearly took them to OT in Arizona.  They utilized the screen game and their tight ends to perfection.  Green Bay's defense is playing well enough to slow down the Cardinals.  The Packers are giving up just 16.3 points per game over their last 6 contests.  Arizona is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  This one should go right down to the wire, so this +5.5 spread is giving us plenty of value on the Packers.  Take Green Bay.

6* NFL *BLOWOUT* Game of the Week on Tampa Bay Bucs -3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have been one of the better teams in the NFL in terms of yardage differential.  They rank 7th in that category as they are outgaining teams by 34.7 yards per game.  The other top 9 teams in yardage differential are all in the playoffs as of today.  Look for the Bucs to win in the box score and on the scoreboard against a Bears team that has lost three straight, including a 21-point loss to the Vikings last week.  The Bucs last played on Thursday so they have had three extra days of rest heading into this game than the Bears.  Tampa Bay is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 after allowing 30-plus points in its previous game.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* NFL Dog of the Week on San Francisco 49ers +9

The Key: The Detroit Lions shouldn't be favored this heavily against anyone.  They are coming off a win on Monday Night Football.  Not only does that have them overvalued, it also has them playing on a short week here and in a letdown spot against the 49ers.  It will be hard for them to get up for the 49ers after playing on the bright lights of MNF.  The 49ers have beaten the Vikings and Bears outright as underdogs within the NFC North already this year, and they're certainly capable of hanging with the Lions here.  San Francisco is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play over the last 3 seasons.  The Lions are 6-20-3 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take San Francisco.

6* Nebraska/UCLA Foster Farms Bowl *BAILOUT* on Nebraska +7

The Key: Nebraska is the definition of a team that is better than its record.  The Huskers were fortunate to get to a bowl with their 5-7 record this year, but this easily could have been somewhere close to a 10-2 team.  Amazingly, all seven of its losses came by 10 points or less, including five by 5 points or fewer, and four by 3 points or less.  That means that the Huskers were in every game they played, and they will be in this bowl game against UCLA, which makes getting 7 points a very profitable proposition.  UCLA doesn't even want to be here.  It blew its chances of playing in the Pac-12 Championship with a 40-21 loss at USC in the season finale.  So, instead of potentially playing in the Rose Bowl, the Bruins have been sent to the Foster Farms Bowl.  They won't even show up for this game.  The Huskers will be out to prove that they were deserving of a bowl game and will want this one more.  Take Nebraska.

7* Redskins/Eagles NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNDER 48

The Key: I really like UNDERS in division games between two teams who have already played earlier in the season.  I certainly like UNDERS in this situation that are approaching 50 points.  These teams combined for just 43 points in a 23-20 win by the Redskins in their first meeting back on October 4th.  They also combined for just 737 total yards in that game.  The Redskins only won after Kirk Cousins hit Pierre Garcon on a 4-yard touchdown pass with 26 seconds left.  So, this was a 20-16 game until the closing seconds.  Bets on the UNDER in any team against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 42-13 over the last 5 seasons.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Orlando Magic -4

The Key:  The Miami Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing overtime to beat the New Orleans Pelicans on Christmas Day.  They won't have a lot left in the tank for the Orlando Magic, who come in playing as well as anyone in the Eastern Conference.  The Magic have won five of their last six games overall with their only loss coming by 3 points to Atlanta.  Four of their five wins came by 8 points or more.  They have had two days off as they last played on Wednesday, so they will be the fresher team.  The Magic are 20-8 ATS in all games this season as they've been undervalued all year.  They're 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS in all home games.  The Heat are just 4-5 SU & 4-5 ATS on the road.  The Heat are 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.  The Magic are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.  Take Orlando.

6* NCAAF *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE DAY on Washington -8

The Key: Washington came through clutch down the stretch by winning its final two games just to get bowl eligible.  Now the Huskies want to taste victory in their bowl game after losing to Oklahoma State in their bowl last year.  This is a team that easily could have gone 5-0 in its last five games as it outgained five straight opponents, but found ways to lose to both to Utah and Arizona State.  But the other three games were mighty impressive as the Huskies rolled by 46 over Arizona, by 45 over Oregon State and by 35 over Washington State.  You can add another blowout victory here as they get to take on a Southern Miss team that is one of the worst opponents they've faced this year.  The Huskies faced the 21st-toughest schedule in the country, while the Golden Eagles went up against the 135th-toughest schedule.  It's going to be tough sledding for this Southern Miss offense as it will be tasked with going up against the best defense in the Pac-12 as the Huskies allow only 17.7 PPG and 350 YPG this season.  The Huskies are 8-1 ATS as a favorite in the 3.5 to 10-point range over the last 3 years.  Take Washington.

7* Cavs/Warriors XMas Day *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +7

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are fully healthy for the first time this season.  That's a far cry from what they were when they lost to the Warriors 4-2 in the NBA Finals.  They somehow managed to make a series out of it despite playing without Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving.  But both players are healthy coming into this rematch, and the Cavs are simply going to want this one more than the Warriors.  The Cavs are also playing well coming in, winning 6 straight with a pair of double-digit road wins over the Magic and Celtics in their two road games during this stretch.  The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take Cleveland.

7* Chargers/Raiders TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego +5

The Key: The Oakland Raiders have no business being this heavily favored against anyone.  Especially not against a division rival like the Chargers, who have pretty much owned them in the past.  The Chargers have outgained the Raiders in 5 straight meetings.  The only reason the Raiders beat them in the first meeting this year is because they were coming off their bye, while the Chargers were in a hangover spot off their tough loss to the Packers the previous week.  The Chargers are allowing just 13.7 points and 284 yards per game in their last 3 contests.  They are 4th in the NFL in passing offense at 294 yards per game and should have plenty of success through the air against a Raiders defense that ranks 28th against the pass.  The underdog is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take San Diego.

7* Georgia Southern/Bowling Green *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 63.5

The Key: Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this GoDaddy Bowl between Georgia Southern and Bowling Green to push the final score over the 63.5-point total.  The Falcons have one of the best offenses in the country as they put up 43.4 points and 561.0 yards per game.  They push the tempo and don't let up for four quarters.  The Georgia Southern Eagles are an offensive juggernaut of their own as they put up 34.7 points and 417.4 yards per game this season.  The Eagles should find success on the ground against a Falcons defense that gives up 162 rushing yards per game.  The OVER is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 bowl games.  The OVER is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 non-conference games.  Take the OVER.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Baylor -12

The Key: I believe this is a great time to back the Baylor Bears.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season as they shot just 35.6% in a 61-80 road loss to the Texas A&M Aggies on Saturday.  Expect them to be highly motivated off that loss.  Now they return home where they are 7-0 and outscoring teams by 24.9 points per game this season.  New Mexico State is just 1-3 on the road this year.  It has been blown out at Long Beach State by 14 and at New Mexico by 18.  Baylor will be the best team that NMSU has played this year.  The Aggies only shoot 32.6% from 3-point range, which is a problem considering Baylor's zone D forces opponents to make outside shots.  The Aggies aren't capable of doing it consistently.  The Bears are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.  The Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.  Take Baylor.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Orlando Magic +1

The Key: The Orlando Magic are playing their best basketball of the season entering this home game against the Houston Rockets.  They have won 10 of their last 14 games overall with three of their four losses coming by 3 points or less.  They have also gone a sensational 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 contests.  With how well they are playing right now, they should not be home underdogs to the Houston Rockets, who clearly have something wrong as they are just 15-14 and fired their head coach early on.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Rockets.  That includes a 5-1 ATS record in their last six home meetings.  Take Orlando.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Dallas Mavericks +4

The Key: I really like backing the Dallas Mavericks as road underdogs.  Year after year, they always seem to play their best basketball on the road, while consistently being overvalued as home favorites.  That has been the case again this season as they are 8-7 SU & 9-6 ATS on the road.  The Mavs have had three days of rest to get ready for the Raptors, and they certainly want to avenge a 91-102 home loss to them in their first meeting this season.  Bets on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Mavericks, revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, playing with 3 or more days rest are 49-23 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  The Mavericks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  The Raptors are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Dallas.

7* Toledo/Temple Bowl Game of the Week on Temple -2.5

The Key: Temple's Matt Rhule has taken this Owls team from 2-10 to 6-6 to 10-3 in his three seasons here.  He was a hot head coaching candidate for other schools, but he chose to stay here at Temple and signed a new 6-year contract after the season.  The Owls were snubbed from a bowl game last year, so they are certainly hungry to be playing in the postseason for the first time since 2011.  Matt Campbell did not stay at Toledo.  He haded for green pastures at Iowa State, and now the Rockets will have an interim coach.  I don't trust them any more without Campbell.  Besides, the Owls are the better team with a better defense that played a much tougher schedule than the Rockets.  Toledo did beat Iowa State in overtime and Arkansas by 4 this season, but it could not have gotten any luckier in doing so as it was outgained by nearly 400 yards combined by those two teams.  Toledo is 0-7 ATS after allowing at least 6.25 yards per play in its previous game over the last 3 years.  Take Temple.

6* VA Tech/St. Joe's NCAAB Early Riser on St. Joe's -2.5

The Key: The St. Joe's Hawks are a very good, experienced team this season that returned four starters from last year.  They are off to an 8-2 start with their only losses coming against Villanova and Florida.  They hung tough with both of those teams, and they have beaten quality teams like Old Dominion and Temple on the road this season.  VA Tech hasn't beaten anyone as its eight wins have come against Jacksonville State, VMI, NC A&T, UAB, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Radford, Lamar and Grambling.  The Hokies lost to the two best teams they played in Iowa State (77-99) on a neutral court and Northwestern (79-81) at home.  They also lost to Alabama State (82-85) at home.  I just don't give them much of a chance here as this is a team that is still rebuilding in Year 2 under Buzz Williams.  The Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Hawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Hawks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take St. Joe's.

7* Lions/Saints MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -2.5

The Key: The Detroit Lions were shell-shocked when they blew their game against the Packers two weeks ago and lost on a hail mary to end their 3-game winning streak.  That loss essentially eliminated them from playoff contention, and they proceeded to lay an egg against St. Louis on the road last week to fall to 4-9.  I don't expect them to show up tonight, either.  The Saints have proven that they're not going to quit.  Even after a disheartening 38-41 home loss to the Panthers in Week 13, the Saints came back in Week 14 and won outright as 6-point road dogs 24-17 at Tampa Bay.  They will show up tonight, especially in front of their home fans on the MNF stage.  The Saints have owned the Lions in the last five meetings, winning four of them.  They have averaged 37.2 points and 503.8 yards per game in those five meetings.  The Saints have won by 17, 14 and 18 points in their last three home meetings with the Lions.  Take New Orleans.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Magic/Knicks UNDER 196.5

The Key: When you look at recent meetings between the Knicks and Magic, it's easy to see why I like the UNDER here.  They have combined for 191, 159 and 172 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 174.0 points per game and 22.5 points less than this 196.5-point total.  Both teams prefer to slow down the tempo as the Magic rank 19th in pace while the Knicks are 23rd.  Both teams struggle offensively as the Magic are 19th in offensive efficiency while the Knicks are 21st.  Both teams are improved defensively this season as the Magic rank 8th in defensive efficiency while the Knicks rank 16th.  Orlando is 8-0 UNDER in road games off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  The Magic are 8-0 UNDER in road games off a home loss to a division opponent over the last 3 years.  Take the UNDER.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on UMass +3.5

The Key: Providence is overvalued due to its 11-1 start this season.  The Friars have failed to cover the spread in their last two games.  They only won by 7 at home against Bryant as 18.5-point favorites and by 8 at home against Rider as 12.5-point favorites.  They were playing without their best player in Kris Dunn for both of those games, and Dunn is questionable to return tonight.  The Friars have only had one day in between games as they played Rider on Saturday.  The UMass Minutemen come in fresh as they have had 4 days off in between games since their win over New Orleans on December 16.  The home team is 3-0 SU in the last three meetings between these teams over the last three seasons.  The Minutemen are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Take UMass.

6* Cardinals/Eagles Sunday Night PARLAY on Arizona -3.5/UNDER 51.5

The Key for Arizona: The Cardinals are 1st in the NFL in yardage differential as they outgain teams by 95.1 yards per game.  The Eagles are 26th in yardage differential as they get outgained by 33.8 yards per game.  The Eagles have been outgained in four straight games by an average of 146.0 yards per game.  They have all kinds of weaknesses all over the field, while the Cardinals have no weaknesses.  They should roll to a comfortable victory Sunday night.

The Key for the UNDER: The Cardinals do have one of the league's best defenses as they rank 4th in the NFL in total defense at 322.4 yards per game.  While I expect the Cardinals to put up plenty of points to cover, the reason I like them is because I expect them to shut down a suspect Philadelphia offense that puts up just 351.5 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.  Somewhere in the neighborhood of a 27-17 final score is what I'm thinking.

6* Cardinals/Eagles Sunday Night PARLAY on Arizona -3.5/UNDER 51.5

The Key for Arizona: The Cardinals are 1st in the NFL in yardage differential as they outgain teams by 95.1 yards per game.  The Eagles are 26th in yardage differential as they get outgained by 33.8 yards per game.  The Eagles have been outgained in four straight games by an average of 146.0 yards per game.  They have all kinds of weaknesses all over the field, while the Cardinals have no weaknesses.  They should roll to a comfortable victory Sunday night.

The Key for the UNDER: The Cardinals do have one of the league's best defenses as they rank 4th in the NFL in total defense at 322.4 yards per game.  While I expect the Cardinals to put up plenty of points to cover, the reason I like them is because I expect them to shut down a suspect Philadelphia offense that puts up just 351.5 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.  Somewhere in the neighborhood of a 27-17 final score is what I'm thinking.

7* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Dolphins/Chargers OVER 45.5

The Key: The Miami Dolphins and San Diego Chargers both have nothing to play for right now.  When that's the case, the defenses don't try as hard and the offenses usually have their way.  I expect that to be exactly how this game plays out today.  These are already two of the worst defenses in the NFL as the Dolphins give up 25.5 points per game and rank 28th in total defense, while the Chargers give up 25.7 points per game and rank 24th in total defense.  Phillip Rivers and Ryan Tannehill should have monster games in this one.  San Diego is 8-1 OVER off two or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.  Take the OVER.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Fresno State -2

The Key: This is a very generous price to get Fresno State as only 2-point home favorites over Evansville today.  The Bulldogs are 8-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road to Oregon, Arizona and Cal Poly.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 at home this season, beating teams by 11.2 points per game.  Evansville is 9-2 overall but just 3-2 on the road this year.  It lost to Providence by 10 on a neutral court and Arkansas by 13 on the road.  The Purple Aces have played an easier schedule than the Bulldogs this year.  Fresno State is 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 years.  Take Fresno State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5

The Key: The Timberwolves had lost eight of nine games before finally snapping out of it with a 99-95 home win over the Kings on Friday.  This stretch has them undervalued right now as they should not be underdogs to the Brooklyn Nets.  But all 8 of those losses came by 12 points or less, including 7 by 8 points or fewer.  They were competitive in every game, but just had some bad fortune in close games.  The Nets are 7-19 on the season and have lost four straight coming in.  They have all kinds of injury issues right now as Shane Larkin, Rondae-Hollis Jefferson and Sergey Karasev are all out.  The Timberwolves have played their best ball on the road this season as they are 6-6 SU & 9-3 ATS in road games.  They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games overall.  The Timberwolves are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 meetings with the Nets.  Minnesota is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  Take Minnesota.

7* Jets/Cowboys Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York -3

The Key: The Jets have everything to play for right now.  They are in a 3-way tie with Pittsburgh and Kansas City for the final 2 wild card spots in the AFC.  One of those three teams is going to get left out, and the Jets don't want it to be them.  With 3 straight wins over the Dolphins, Giants & Titans by a combined 43 points, they certainly are doing their part.  The Cowboys have nothing to play for right now at 4-9.  Their loss to the Packers last week, coupled with wins by the Eagles, Giants & Redskins, dropped the Cowboys to 2 games out of first place in the NFC East and done for.  The motivational advantage for the Jets, plus the fact that they are far and away the superior team here, makes this a very generous line of -3.  The Cowboys are 1-5 at home this season, losing by 10.0 points per game.  Dallas is 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  Take New York.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Houston Rockets -1

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a draining 8-point loss at San Antonio last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  The Houston Rockets had yesterday off following a 107-87 road win over the Los Angeles Lakers Thursday.  The Rockets are playing much better now as they've won 8 of their last 12 games overall and were competitive in all four of their losses.  The Rockets have won four straight meetings with the Clippers heading in, including home wins by 13 and 21 points.  The Rockets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  Houston is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games off a road win.  Take Houston.

6* BYU/Utah Las Vegas Bowl 2-0 Parlay SWEEPER on BYU +3/UNDER 51

The Key for BYU: Utah doesn't even want to be in this bowl game.  It was considered a playoff contender when it was 6-0 and ranked #3 in the country.  But instead of even making the Rose Bowl, the Utes have been sent to Las Vegas, which is among the worst bowl games for Pac-12 teams.  Throw in the fact that the Utes played their bowl game in Las Vegas last year, and they really don't want to be here.  The Cougars love the opportunity to play their former Mountain West rival in the Utes.  Players have been stating that they will be laying it all on the line for head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who decided to stay and coach this bowl game instead of leaving early for his new gig at Virginia.  Mendenhall will be going for his 100th win.  These teams have four common opponents this year.  BYU beat Fresno State 52-10 at home, lost 23-24 at UCLA, and beat Utah State 51-28 on the road.  Utah beat Fresno State 45-24 on the road, lost to UCLA 9-17 at home, and beat Utah State 24-14 at home.  The Cougars outscored those three teams by 74 points, while the Utes outscored them by only 23 points.  Utah is missing its best player in Devontae Booker, who has accounted for nearly 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns in just 10 games.  Take BYU.

The Key for the UNDER: With this being a rivalry game, these teams are very familiar with one another.  That usually leads to a low-scoring affair.  Four of the last five meetings have seen 49 or fewer points with combined scores of 33, 45, 64, 33 and 49 (OT) points in the last five meetings, respectively.  Both teams are good defensively as the Cougars and Utes both allow just 21.8 points per game.  Utah is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 21-5 UNDER off a win by 7 pints or less against a conference foe.  BYU is 16-6 UNDER in its last 22 on a neutral field.  Take the UNDER.

6* BYU/Utah Las Vegas Bowl 2-0 Parlay SWEEPER on BYU +3/UNDER 51

The Key for BYU: Utah doesn't even want to be in this bowl game.  It was considered a playoff contender when it was 6-0 and ranked #3 in the country.  But instead of even making the Rose Bowl, the Utes have been sent to Las Vegas, which is among the worst bowl games for Pac-12 teams.  Throw in the fact that the Utes played their bowl game in Las Vegas last year, and they really don't want to be here.  The Cougars love the opportunity to play their former Mountain West rival in the Utes.  Players have been stating that they will be laying it all on the line for head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who decided to stay and coach this bowl game instead of leaving early for his new gig at Virginia.  Mendenhall will be going for his 100th win.  These teams have four common opponents this year.  BYU beat Fresno State 52-10 at home, lost 23-24 at UCLA, and beat Utah State 51-28 on the road.  Utah beat Fresno State 45-24 on the road, lost to UCLA 9-17 at home, and beat Utah State 24-14 at home.  The Cougars outscored those three teams by 74 points, while the Utes outscored them by only 23 points.  Utah is missing its best player in Devontae Booker, who has accounted for nearly 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns in just 10 games.  Take BYU.

The Key for the UNDER: With this being a rivalry game, these teams are very familiar with one another.  That usually leads to a low-scoring affair.  Four of the last five meetings have seen 49 or fewer points with combined scores of 33, 45, 64, 33 and 49 (OT) points in the last five meetings, respectively.  Both teams are good defensively as the Cougars and Utes both allow just 21.8 points per game.  Utah is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 21-5 UNDER off a win by 7 pints or less against a conference foe.  BYU is 16-6 UNDER in its last 22 on a neutral field.  Take the UNDER.

6* NCAAB In-State Rivalry Game of the Week on Georgia +2

The Key: The Georgia Bulldogs have won 7 of their last 9 home meetings with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in this rivalry, where home-court advantage has clearly been huge for both teams.  The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Georgia is just 4-3 this year, but its three losses have come by 2, 2 and 7 points.  The Bulldogs are expected to get their best player back today in Kenny Gaines, who missed last game with a knee injury.  Getting ample time off has helped him recover as the Bulldogs last played on December 8th.  Georgia Tech hasn't had nearly as much time to prepare as it last played on December 15th in a home win over VCU.  That was the one quality win that the Yellow Jackets have this season as they've played an easy schedule and have been favored in 8 of their 9 games.  In their only game as a dog, they lost by 17 to Villanova.  Georgia Tech is 13-30 ATS in its last 43 road games after having won 4 of its last 5 games.  The Bulldogs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games versus teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Take Georgia.

7* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have lost four straight coming in and desperately need a win.  But two of those losses came to Oklahoma City and another to San Antonio, which are two of the best teams in the NBA.  Now they get to a cupcake in Denver.  The Nuggets have played better of late, winning five of their last six, but four of those wins have come against Minnesota (twice), Philadelphia and Houston.  Four of them have also come by 6 points or less, so they've been fortunate in close games.  The Jazz have won each of their last two meetings with the Nuggets in blowout fashion with a 12-point road win this season and a 14-point home win in their final meeting last year.  Utah is 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Nuggets are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 2 days rest.  The Jazz are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.  The Jazz are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take Utah.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington State -10

The Key: Washington State should be a heavier home favorite tonight against Texas State.  The Cougars are 6-2 this season with a 9-point loss to Gonzaga and a 4-point road loss to Idaho.  All six of Washington State's wins have come by 12 points or more, and I believe we'll be able to add a 7th to that category tonight.  Texas State is 5-2 with its two losses coming to Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 8 and UTEP by 15.  Its five wins have come against Texas-Tyler, McNeese State, UTSA, UTRGV and Prairie View A&M.  If that's not a laughable schedule than I don't know what is.  UTEP is a common opponent of these teams.  Texas State lost 62-77 at UTEP and shot 35.8% while allowing 54.2% shooting.  Well, Washington State beat UTEP 84-68 at home and shot 55.3% while allowing only 36.5% shooting.  The Cougars are 6-1 at home this year, winning by 12.9 points per game.  The Cougars are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.  Texas State is 1-12 ATS versus teams who outscore opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last 3 seasons.  Take Washington State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves have lost 8 of their last 9 games coming in an are in desperate need of a victory.  But it's not like they haven't been competitive as they could have won all nine of those games.  The eight losses have come by 8, 3, 6, 4, 3, 7, 12 and 5 points, so they have been in every game, but they just haven't been able to finish the deal.  The Kings are road favorites here because they come in having won 3 straight.  HOwever, all three wins came at home over Utah, New York and Houston.  The Kings are a great home team, but they are a terrible road game.  The Kings are just 2-8 on the road this season, giving up 112.5 points per game away from home.  The Kings are 21-47-2 ATS in their last 70 games playing on 2 days rest.  Sacramento is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS win.  Take Minnesota.

6* Rockets/Lakers TNT *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles +6

The Key: After a brutal 8-game road trip in which the Lakers played 8 games in 12 days, they finally had some rest before returning home to face the Bucks two nights ago.  They had two days off prior to that game, and then promptly put together their best performance of the season in a 113-95 home win as 3.5-point underdogs.  They had seven different players score in double-digits and had 26 assists on their 41 made field goals.  Look for them to build off of that win and play well tonight as 6-point home dogs against the Rockets.  The Lakers want revenge from an ugly loss at Houston on December 12 less than a week ago.  That was the 8th game on that 8-game road trip, and they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing in San Antonio the previous night.  They had nothing left in the tank, but now they are rejuvenated and will put forth a much better effort tonight.  The Lakers are only getting outscored by 2.7 points per game at home this year, while the Rockets are getting outscored by 4.0 points per game on the road.  The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Bucs/Rams TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay +3

The Key: The oddsmakers have the wrong team favored in this one.  The Rams have no business being favored when they have lost five of their last six games with the majority of them coming via blowout.  They have been outgained by 129.2 yards per game in their last 5 games, and they are getting outgained by 56.4 yards per game on the season.  The Bucs have outgained 9 of their last 11 opponents and are outgaining teams by 22.7 yards per game on the year.  The Bucs are simply the better team here.  They are 5-1 following a loss this season, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Bucks/Clippers Non-Conference *BAILOUT* on Milwaukee +11

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back tonight.  However, they won't have to travel at all as they will be playing inside the Staples Center again.  After being 4-point favorites over the Lakers yesterday, now they're 11-point underdogs to the Clippers tonight, which is a massive 15-point adjustment.  As a result, I believe there is some nice value here with the Bucks catching double-digits.  I also like the fact that the Bucks are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 0 days rest.  Take Milwaukee.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +13

The Key: Mississippi State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  I fully expect this team to make some noise in the SEC this season behind first-year head coach Ben Howland and his four returning starters.  This is a talented group that just needed some leadership, and Howland provides that since he took UCLA to three straight Final Fours.  The Bulldogs have been undervalued all season as they are 5-1 ATS in their six lines games this year.  They are especially undervalued here because they are coming off an upset loss to Missouri-KC, which will have them re-focused and grounded as they take on this solid Florida State squad.  The Seminoles are 26-59 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Take Mississippi State.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings -1.5

The Key: The Houston Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days after their draining 108-114 road loss to the Denver Nuggets last night.  This is a good spot to fade them and back the Sacramento Kings, who have had four days off in between games having last played on December 10th.  The Kings are a respectable 7-7 at home this season as they have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  The Rockets are giving up 107.0 points per game on 48.4% shooting en route to a 5-6 road record this year.  The Kings have already lost to the Rockets twice this year, and they've lost each of their last four meetings with the Rockets all by 7 points or less, so they will be wanting some revenge here.  The Kings are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.  The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.  Take Sacramento.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Tennessee Tech +12.5

The Key: This is too many points for UT-Chattanooga to be playing to a quality in-state opponent in Tennessee Tech tonight.  Tech has gone 7-3 this season with its only losses all coming on the road to Air Force, New Mexico State and Arkansas.  Tech has only one loss by more than 13 points this season, so it has been competitive in basically every game but one.  Chattanooga is in a big letdown spot here after winning at Dayton three days ago.  It's also hard to trust Chattanooga to win by 12-plus points tonight considering they are without their best player.  Casey Jones is out with an ankle injury.  He led the team in scoring (14.2) and rebounding (7.0) last season, and he is leading them in both categories (12.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg) once again this season.  He played in their first eight games but had to sit out the win over Dayton.  Teams can play well without their star player for one game, but not over time.  Tech beat Chattanooga 69-67 at home last year.  Chattanooga is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 vs. Ohio Valley foes.  Chattanooga is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS win.  Take Tennessee Tech.

7* Giants/Dolphins MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +1

The Key: The Giants have gone 2-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less this season. They are clearly better than their 5-7 record, but they haven't been able to finish.  Now trailing the Redskins and Eagles by a half-game, who both won yesterday, the Giants will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight.  The Dolphins are just as bad as their 5-7 record, if not worse.  Six of their seven losses have come by 10 points or more, and they've gone 3-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  Scoring margin tells the story as the Dolphins are getting outscored by 5.0 points per game on the season, while the Giants are outscoring teams by 0.9 points per game.  The Dolphins are 13-39-1 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 December games.  The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.  Take New York.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Magic/Nets UNDER 199

The Key: Two poor offensive teams square off tonight when the Magic meet the Nets in an Eastern Conference showdown.  The Magic rank 23rd in offensive efficiency while the Nets rank 27th.  These are two teams who also play at below-average league paces as the Nets are 16th in pace while the Magic are tied for 17th.  Each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 200 or fewer combined points.  Orlando is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 road games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Magic are 34-13 UNDER in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the last 3 years.  The Nets are 14-3 UNDER off a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 years.  The UNDER is 12-1 in Magic last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 21-7-2 in the last 30 meetings.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Non-Conference *Total* Annihilator on Grizzlies/Heat UNDER 189.5

The Key: The Miami Heat have been the best UNDER bet in the NBA.  They are 17-4 to the UNDER this season and oddsmakers just can't set their totals low enough.  They certainly haven't set this one low enough as this is a battle between two defense-first teams who play at slow paces.  Miami ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up 96.4 points per 100 possessions.  While the Grizzlies have slipped defensively this year, this is still a good defensive team.  Miami ranks 25th in pace at 96.1 possessions per game, while Memphis ranks 24th in pace at 96.9 possessions per game.  Miami is 20th in offensive efficiency while Memphis is 25th in offensive efficiency.  The Heat are 9-1 UNDER vs. teams with winning records this year.  Take the UNDER.

7* Falcons/Panthers 2-0 Parlay Sweeper on Atlanta +8/Under 45

The Key: The Falcons are undervalued due to going 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  This is already a crazy streak, and for them to lose ATS again this week, the chances are simply slim to none.  Their season is on the line this week against the Panthers, so they will be putting their best foot forward.  I think it will be enough to stay within this 8-point spread.  I also like the UNDER as this is a division rivalry game and these two teams are obviously very familiar with each other.  Each of the last 4 meetings have seen 44 or fewer combined points.  The UNDER is 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings in Carolina.  Take Atlanta and the UNDER.

7* Falcons/Panthers 2-0 Parlay Sweeper on Atlanta +8/Under 45

The Key: The Falcons are undervalued due to going 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  This is already a crazy streak, and for them to lose ATS again this week, the chances are simply slim to none.  Their season is on the line this week against the Panthers, so they will be putting their best foot forward.  I think it will be enough to stay within this 8-point spread.  I also like the UNDER as this is a division rivalry game and these two teams are obviously very familiar with each other.  Each of the last 4 meetings have seen 44 or fewer combined points.  The UNDER is 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings in Carolina.  Take Atlanta and the UNDER.

7* Chargers/Chiefs 2-0 Parlay Sweeper on San Diego +11/UNDER 43.5

The Key: The Chiefs are overvalued due to going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Chargers are undervalued due to going 1-7 in their last 8 games overall.  Six of the Chargers 9 losses this season have come by 8 points or less.  This is only the 2nd time this season the Chiefs have been favored by more than 4.5 points.  They lost outright as 9-point favorites over the Bears the first time.  This is a division rivalry game, so these teams are very familiar with each other, and I like the UNDER as a result.  They combined for 36 points in their first meeting this season in San Diego.  Take San Diego and the UNDER.

7* Chargers/Chiefs 2-0 Parlay Sweeper on San Diego +11/UNDER 43.5

The Key: The Chiefs are overvalued due to going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Chargers are undervalued due to going 1-7 in their last 8 games overall.  Six of the Chargers 9 losses this season have come by 8 points or less.  This is only the 2nd time this season the Chiefs have been favored by more than 4.5 points.  They lost outright as 9-point favorites over the Bears the first time.  This is a division rivalry game, so these teams are very familiar with each other, and I like the UNDER as a result.  They combined for 36 points in their first meeting this season in San Diego.  Take San Diego and the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Milwaukee Bucks +8.5

The Key: Both of these teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but it's a much worse spot for the Warriors.  They will be playing their 7th straight road game.  No team in NBA history has ever swept a 7-game road trip.  Plus, the Warriors went to double-overtime last night against the Celtics.  They won't have anything left in the tank.  The Bucks will be energized to try and end this unbeaten streak by the Warriors.  The Bucks have held their own at home this year, posting a 7-5 record there compared to a 2-10 mark on the road.  Milwaukee is 20-8 ATS following 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.  The Bucks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.  The Bucks are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Warriors.  The Warriors are already without Harrison Barnes and could be without Klay Thompson again tonight.  Take Milwaukee.

6* Cincinnati/Xavier Top 25 *CA$H COW* on Xavier -4

The Key: Xavier is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Sure, the Musketeers are ranked #12 in the land, but they don't get the credit that a lot of other top programs do.  They just keep going about their business, destroying the competition en route to a 9-0 start.  They are outscoring teams by 19.2 points per game this year.  They have impressive road wins over Michigan (86-70), Alabama (64-45), USC (87-77) and Dayton (90-61), so they have played a tough schedule, too.  Cincinnati is 8-1 but lost to Butler at home and only beat Nebraska and Georgia Washington by a combined 9 points.  Xavier has won each of its last two meetings with Cincinnati while shooting 56.4% and 52.6% from the floor.  The domination in this series for the Musketeers continues tonight.  Xavier 7-0 ATS is as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons.  Xavier is 7-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Xavier.

7* Army/Navy NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Army +22

The Key: This is a ton of points for a rivalry game.  Records can pretty much be throwing out the window when these two teams get together.  We saw that last year with Army only losing 17-10 to Navy as 16.5-point underdogs.  That was the third time in the last four years that this game was decided by 7 points or less.  In fact, Army has only lost by more than 14 points to Navy once in the last 6 meetings.  Army is much better than its 2-9 record this season.  8 of its 9 losses have come by 17 points or less, including 7 by 10 points or fewer, and 6 by 7 points or less.  The Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Army.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Milwaukee Bucks +8

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are coming off a huge 97-94 home win over the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday.  That win sets them up for a massive letdown spot here as they host the Milwaukee Bucks two nights later.  The Raptors shouldn't be 8-point favorites considering they are missing two starters right now in Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll.  Betting against home teams off an upset win as a home underdog against an opponent off a home loss has produced a 37-12 ATS record over the last 5 seasons.  Toronto is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Milwaukee.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pistons/76ers UNDER 192.5

The Key: The 76ers and Pistons played in some ugly defensive battles in their final two meetings last year.  THey combined for 158 and 177 points, both of which came in Philadelphia.  The 76ers are awful offensively once again this season as they are 30th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  The Pistons have also struggled on that end as they're 24th in offensive efficiency.  But the Pistons do lock it down defensively, ranking 8th in the NBA in efficiency on that end.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Pistons last 6 games, while the UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games as well.  Take the UNDER.

6* Heat/Pacers ESPN National TV Annihilator on Indiana -4.5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers will be motivated to put to end a 3-game losing streak.  They lost road games against the Blazers and Jazz before coming home to lose to the unbeaten Warriors.  But the Pacers should have no problem getting back on track against a team they've owned at home.  They haven't lost at home in the regular season to the Heat since February of 2012.  The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings.  Indiana is 35-13 in its last 48 home meetings with Miami.  The Heat are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.  The Pacers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest.  Indiana is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.  Take Indiana.

7* Vikings/Cardinals TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -10

The Key: The Cardinals are on a mission to finish out the season strong after floundering last year and giving way to the Seattle Seahawks for the NFC West title.  They are off to a good start with six straight victories coming in, including a 27-3 win over the Rams on the road last week.  The Vikings lost 7-38 to the Seahawks last week and will really struggle to score against this elite Arizona defense.  Minnesota's defense, which is extremely banged up right now, will also struggle to slow down Carson Palmer and Arizona's top-ranked offense.  This one just has blowout written all over it.  The Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 December games.  Arizona is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 against NFC opponents.  Take Arizona.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Philadelphia 76ers +7

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off an embarrassing 51-point loss to the Spurs last time out.  They have had two days in between games since that ugly loss.  Look for them to come back re-energized and to show a lot of fight tonight against the Brooklyn Nets.  This will be just the 2nd time all season that the Nets have actually been favored.  They lost at home to the Lakers 98-104 as 3-point favorites in the first instance.  The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams, and four of the last five meetings overall.  The 76ers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Nets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take Philadelphia.

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Vanderbilt -8.5

The Key: The Vanderbilt Commodores are one of the best teams in the country.  They have gone 6-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS in lined games.  Their only two losses this season came on the road to Kansas (63-70) and Baylor (67-69) by a combined 9 points.  Those are also two of the best teams in the land.  Vanderbilt's numbers are out of this world.  It is scoring 83.4 points against teams that allow 73.5 points, and allowing 60.6 points against teams that average 79.3 points.  After the loss to Kansas, Vanderbilt bounced back with a 102-52 home win over Detroit.  I look for the Commodores to bounce back from their loss to Baylor in a big way at home tonight.  Dayton is 6-1 this season, but I can't take the Flyers seriously when they lost to Xavier 61-90 two games back.  Plus, this will be their first true road game of the season in a hostile atmosphere.  The Commodores are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season winning by 33.0 points per game.  The Commodores are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  Take this combined 19-1 angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* Bulls/Celtics ESPN National TV Annihilator on Boston -2.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this season.  They get after it defensively, ranking 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  They are outscoring the opposition by 5.3 points per game overall and 7.9 points per game at home.  Their last four games have been mighty impressive as they've gone 4-0 ATS.  They have posted double-digit road wins over Miami (by 10), Sacramento (by 17) and New Orleans (by 18) with their only loss coming at San Antonio (by 3) as 8.5-point underdogs.  The Bulls are 6-12 ATS this season and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with winning records.  The Celtics have gone 25-11 ATS in their last 36 games following a win.  Take Boston.

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Indiana Pacers +6

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are ripe for the upset tonight.  They will be playing their 5th straight road games here and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They nearly lost to Utah in a 3-point win and Toronto in a 3-point win.  I believe Indiana is better than both of those teams and is good enough to hand the Warriors their first defeat of the season tonight.  Indiana has won six straight home games by nearly 12 points per game on average.  The Pacers are coming in on 2 days' rest, which is important considering their are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on 2 days of rest.  Take Indiana.

6* WVU/Virginia ESPN National TV Annihilator on West Virginia +5

The Key: While Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa State are getting all of the national attention in the Big 12, everyone is sleeping on West Virginia.  The Mountaineers have opened 7-0 this season, and the numbers they are putting up are out of this world.  They are averaging 88.4 points against teams that allow 74.9 points, and they are allowing 57.6 points against teams that average 72.6.  So they are scoring nearly 14 points more per game than their opponents allow, and they are allowing 15 points per game less than their opponents average.  Virginia is a great team, but I think the wrong team is favored here.  The Cavaliers have been vulnerable as they lost to George Washington earlier this season, and the rest of their schedule has been pretty easy, with the exception of a 6-point win over Ohio State.  But the Buckeyes are down this season.  WVU is 6-0 ATS in road games off 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.  Virginia is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams that outscore foes by 12-plus points  per game.  Take West Virginia.

7* Cowboys/Redskins MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +3.5

The Key: With a win Monday, the Cowboys can pull within one game of the NFC East lead.  With a loss, they are pretty much done.  It's safe to say that they are going to be laying it all on the line to try to get a win given the situation.  The Cowboys are 0-7 without Tony Romo, but they have been competitive at least.  Five of those losses came by a TD or less, and two were in overtime.  While I expect the Cowboys to win outright tonight, there is also a good chance it's decided by 3 points or less either way.  The Cowboys have had extra prep time because they played last Thursday.  The Cowboys have been the better team statistically.  They are only getting outgained by 0.6 yards per game, while the Redskins are getting outgained by 27.1 yards per game.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games played on a grass field.  Its running game will be the difference in this one as Darren McFadden has a big day against a Washington defense that is giving up 127 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  Take Dallas.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Chicago Bulls -5.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns are in an awful situation tonight.  This is the finale of a 6-game road trip for them.  They have lost four straight on this road trip, and now they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  The Suns are simply running on fumes right now.  The Bulls will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, so look for them to win all of the hustle plays tonight.  The Bulls have won 11 of their last 14 meetings with the Suns.  The Suns are 3-8 on the road, while the Bulls are 7-2 at home.  Chicago is coming off a loss to Charlotte, and it is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a defeat.  In fact, the Bulls haven't lost two straight games all season.  Take Chicago.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on IUPUI +21

The Key: The Purdue Boilermakers are getting a lot of love right now from the betting public due to their 8-0 start this  season.  But after back-to-back huge wins over Pitt and New Mexico, this is the definition of a letdown spot for the Boilermakers.  I don't believe they'll be able to cover this massive 21-point spread against crosstown opponent IUPUI. This is an IUPUI team that returned 4 starters from last year.  Yes, it is just 3-6 this season, but it has played a brutal schedule with seven road games against two home games.  All six of its losses have come on the road, but five of those losses came by 10 points or less.  It also beat Indiana State 72-70 as 8-point road dogs, and only lost to Marquette 71-75 as 13.5-point road dogs.  I've seen enough from this team to know that it can stay within 21 points of Purdue tonight.  It also helps that 2015 Big Ten Player of the Year Raphael Davis will likely miss his 4th straight game for the Boilermakers tonight.  IUPUI is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 years.  IUPUI is 10-1 ATS in road games off two straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the past 2 seasons.  Take IUPUI.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are coming off a hard-fought 112-109 win at Toronto last night.  Now they have to come back a day later and are being asked to lay double-digit points to the Brooklyn Nets, who had yesterday off.  I see no way the Warriors find a way to win by double-digits today.  The Nets are 4-0 in their last four home games overall.  The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams, and the Nets took the Warriors to overtime on the road in their first meeting this season.  Also, the Warriors haven't beaten the Nets by more than 9 points in any of the last 11 meetings in this series.  Take Brooklyn.

6* AFC West Game of the Week on Kansas City Chiefs -3

The Key: The Chiefs cannot be stopped right now.  They have gone 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in their last five games overall, winning by an average of 19.8 points per game.  Their defense has been dynamite in giving up 12.2 points per game during the winning streak, and 18 or fewer points in 6 of their last 7 games.  Kansas City has had Oakland's number, winning 3 of the last 4 meetings and outscoring the Raiders by an average of 14.0 points per game over those four contests.  Oakland is 39-75 ATS in its last 114 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Raiders are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as a home dog of 3 points or less.  The road team is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings with the Chiefs going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to Oakland.  Take Kansas City.

7* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks -1

The Key: The Seattle Seahawks are only 6-5, but you could make the argument that they are still the best team in the NFC.  They have held a 4th quarter lead in all 11 of their games.  Russell Wilson and the offense put up 39 points on the Steelers last week thanks to five touchdown passes from their star quarterback.  Look for this team to continue its second-half surge with a win over the Vikings Sunday.  The Vikings are actually getting outgained on the season and aren't as good as their 8-3 record.  Teddy Bridgewater is going to have his hands full against this Seattle defense, which is one of the best in the league.  Seattle ranks 5th in the NFL against the run giving up just 92.9 yards per game.  It is well-equipped to stop Adrian Peterson and will force Bridgewater to have to make more plays than he's used to.  The Seahawks are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 December games.  Seattle is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. defenses that allow 61% completions or more in the second half of the season.  Take Seattle.

6* AFC South Game of the Week on Tennessee Titans -2

The Key: The Titans have had some heartbreaking losses this year as five of their nine losses have come by 6 points or less.  They lost 13-19 to the Jaguars despite leading 13-9 heading into the 4th quarter two weeks ago.  Now they'll want revenge on these Jaguars.  You have to like their chances considering these teams have split the season series each of the last five years.  The home team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings as well.  The Jaguars are 1-4 in true road games this season, losing by 9.4 points per game.  The Titans have the better defense, ranking 7th in the NFL in giving up 331.8 yards per game.  The Jaguars rank 20th in total defense at 358.5 yards per game.  I like this matchup for the Titans, who rank 6th in the NFL against the pass at 224.1 yards per game.  Blake Bortles will have to work for everything he gets.  Take Tennessee.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks +2

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks both played last night.  The Knicks won their second straight game 108-91 over the Nets, while the Bucks lost on the road 95-102 to the Pistons.  The Bucks have a shorter flight back to Milwaukee and will be the more motivated team heading into this game considering they are coming off consecutive losses.  They really need a win to turn their season around, and I look for them to get it here.  Milwaukee is 19-8 ATS following two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss to an opponent against an opponent off a road loss to a division foe are 27-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on USC +4.5

The Key: It's tough to beat a team twice in the same season.  That's especially a team as talented as this USC outfit. These players are motivated to win for their new head coach in Clay Helton, who was just given a 5-year contract to stay at USC.  They love this guy and have responded well to him.  He has led them to a 5-2 record with his only losses coming against Notre Dame and Oregon, which are two of the best teams in the country.  Cody Kessler is going to move the ball up and down the field on this Stanford defense, which is without two starting cornerbacks in Alijah Holder and Ronnie Harris.  Notre Dame did the same thing against Stanford last week, and the Cardinal were fortunate to escape with a 1-point victory on a last-second field goal.  With revenge in mind, the Trojans will be the more motivated team here.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take USC.

6* Air Force/SDSU MWC Championship *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 50

The Key: I fully expect a defensive battle between San Diego State and Air Force Saturday in the Mountain West Championship.  These are two teams who run the football.  Air Force averages 60 rushing attempts for 323 yards per game, and just 12 pass attempts per contest.  SDSU averages 48 rushing attempts and 235 yards per game, and just 19 passes per contest.  Both teams are great against the run, especially SDSU.  SDSU allows 95 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, while Air Force gives up 139 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  The last three meetings in his series have gone under 50 combined points.  They combined for 44 last year, 47 in 2013 and 37 in 2012.  Expect that trend to continue this year.  SDSU is 11-1 to the UNDER as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.  SDSU is 22-8 UNDER in its last 30 vs. poor passing teams that average 150 or fewer passing yards per game.  Take the UNDER. 

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Ohio State -15

The Key: The Ohio State Buckeyes are shockingly off to just a 2-4 start this season.  After opening with 22-point and 27-points wins over Mount St. Mary's and Grambling, they have lost four in a row coming in.  But all four losses came to quality teams in UT Arlington, LA Tech, Memphis and Virginia.  All four losses also came by 8 points or less, including a 5-point loss to Memphis and a 6-point loss to Virginia, so they are not broken.  It's safe to say that they are going to be highly motivated to get back in the win column today.  Now they get to face an awful team in Virginia Military.  VMI is 0-3 on the road this season, losing to Penn State by 12, VA Tech by 24 and Campbell by 1.  Those losses to Penn State and VA Tech make me think that Ohio State won't have a problem covering this 15-point spread because it is the best team that VMI will have faced this season.  The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Ohio State.

6* Southern Miss/WKU C-USA Championship *CA$H COW* on Southern Miss +7.5

The Key: Southern Miss has won six straight coming into this game with all six wins coming by 21 points or more.  They just keep getting better as the season goes on, and they just upset Louisiana Tech 58-24 as 5-point underdogs in their last game, covering the spread by 39 points.  The betting public has not caught on to this team yet, which is why they are once again showing great value as 7.5-point dogs.  WKU only beat LA Tech 41-38 at home earlier this season.  Common opponents show that Southern Miss is clearly the better team.  They are more balanced on offense, and they have the better defense.  The Golden Eagles have outgained each of their last eight opponents by at least 150 yards.  They are 10-2 ATS in all games this season, and 8-0 ATS off one or more straight overs the last two years.  Take Southern Miss.

6* Northern Illinois/Bowling Green ESPN 2 National TV Annihilator on Bowling Green -13

The Key: Northern Illinois freshman QB Tommy Fiedler was a 5th-string QB coming into the year.  But injuries to the other four quarterbacks ahead of him have forced him into action in the MAC Championship Game.  Needless to say, I don't expect it to work out very well for the Huskies tonight.  Bowling Green wants revenge from a 51-17 loss to NIU in the MAC Championship last year.  The Falcons have the team to get it as they've been the best team in the MAC this season.  They boast a high-powered offense that is putting up 47.0 points, 553.1 yards per game and 7.0 per play in MAC action, and an underrated defense that is allowing 21.9 points, 394.1 yards per game and 5.0 per play within the MAC.  The Falcons are 8-0 ATS off a win by 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The Falcons are 8-0 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game this season.  The Falcons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Take this combined 23-0 angle backing the Falcons straight to the bank tonight.  Take Bowling Green.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Missouri -3.5

The Key: Northern Illinois is getting way too much respect from the books tonight due to its 7-0 start.  It couldn't have played an easier schedule as it has played six games at home against CS-Northridge, South Dakota, Wright State, Eureka, Indiana-Northwest and Chicago State.  It has only played one road game, which came at Idaho in a 7-point win.  Now the Huskies will face their toughest test of the season on the road against a team from the SEC in the Missouri Tigers.  Missouri is 3-3, but its three losses have come to Xavier, Kansas State and Northwestern all on the road.  The Tigers hung with both Xavier and Northwestern, which are two very good teams this year.  Missouri is 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.3 points per game.  It is shooting 49.4% at home and allowing just 38.3% at home.  The Tigers are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  The Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.  Take Missouri.

7* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks -2.5

The Key: The New York Knicks are 9-10 this season and things are looking up in the Big Apple for the first time in a long time.  Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets are 5-13 this season and clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA.  Last year, the Nets beat the Knicks 4-0 in the season series, but that was an awful Knicks team.  Plus, the last three games were all decided by 5 points or less.  The Knicks will want revenge from that season sweep.  The Nets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 2.5-point dogs.  They have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, but most of those came as big underdogs.  This line has now been over-adjusted because the Nets have actually won two straight games for the first time this season coming in.  But that works against them considering the Nets are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games following 2 or more consecutive wins.  Take New York.

6* Spurs/Grizzlies TNT National TV Annihilator on Memphis +3.5

The Key: This is an awful spot for the aging San Antonio Spurs.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  Don't be surprised if Greg Popovich rests some of his aging players in this one.  Either way, I like this spot for the Grizzlies, who had Wednesday off and will be the fresher team.  I also like the way the Grizzlies are playing right now.  They have won eight of their last 10 games overall.  One of the two losses came 82-92 at San Antonio on November 21, so they'll also be out for revenge from that loss two weeks later.  Memphis is 70-42 ATS in its last 112 vs. good defensive teams that allow 91 or fewer points per game.  The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference opponents.  San Antonio is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 Thursday games.  Take Memphis.

7* Packers/Lions NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -3

The Key: There's no way the Green Bay Packers are going to get swept by the Detroit Lions.  They shouldn't have lost their first meeting when they were beaten 16-18 at home by the Lions despite outgaining them 372-287.  Their offense has been held in check in recent games, but now Aaron Rodgers and company get to go indoors inside Ford Field and should get untracked.  The Packers are playing well defensively, giving up 16 points and 306 yards per game in their last three.  The Lions have played well here of late, but that has only kept this line lower than it should be.  The Packers need to win the NFC North, and they're one game behind Minnesota, so it's time for them to put their best foot forward.  Detroit is 1-12 ATS in the second half of the season against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  Take Green Bay.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on North Texas +16.5

The Key: Texas-Arlington could not be more overvalued than it is right now.  The betting public has seen it beat teams like Ohio State and Memphis, while also challenging Louisiana Tech and Texas.  Arlington is coming off a 73-80 (OT) loss to Texas on Tuesday, and now I expect it to suffer a hangover from that defeat.  That also makes this a quick turnaround for Arlington, which only has one day in between games to get ready for North Texas.  I had North Texas as 20-point dogs against Northern Iowa last time out.  That was an unfortunate loss as the Mean Green actually held a 2-point halftime lead over the Panthers before getting outscored by 25 points after intermission.  Look for them to stay within 16 points of this Arlington squad, which isn't as good at Northern Iowa.  Arlington is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games after winning 3 of its last 4.  Arlington is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after an ATS win.  Take North Texas.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit +21.5

The Key: The betting public has been quick to back the Vanderbilt Commodores after their 5-1 start this season.  But their first five games couldn't have been any easier as they played Austin Peay, Gardner Webb, Stony Brook, St. John's and Wake Forest.  Keep in mind they only beat Stony Brook by 7 at home.  They are coming off their first loss of the season to No. 4 ranked Kansas 63-70.  I expect them to suffer a hangover from that defeat.  I also expect them to be looking ahead to another huge showdown at Baylor in their next game on December 6th.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Commodores.  Detroit is not a bad team as its two losses have come on the road to Pitt by 16 as 17.5-point dogs and Oral Roberts by 5 as 7-point dogs.  The Titans are an elite offensive team that is putting up 96.0 points per game on 49.5% shooting.  They have a whopping six players averaging 10 points or more, so they share the ball well and get everyone involved.  The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Detroit.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 192.5

The Key: These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA.  The 76ers rank last in offensive efficiency at 91.7 points per 100 possessions, while the Knicks are 23rd at 99.6 points per 100 possessions.  These teams are used to playing in ugly, low-scoring games when they meet.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with all five games seeing 192 or fewer combined points.  They have combined to average 183.6 points in those 5 meetings.  The UNDER is 25-12 in 76ers last 37 games on 0 days of rest.  The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Knicks last 8 home games.  The UNDER is 11-3-1 in Knicks last 15 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Charlotte Hornets +9.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are 19-0 this season.  The betting public has been backing them in stride too, and they've been rewarded with a 13-6 ATS record.  But the Warriors have now set some expectations for the betting public that they cannot live up to.  They are 9.5-point road favorites over the Hornets here when they shouldn't be.  After all, Charlotte is better than it gets credit for.  It is 10-7 on the season with five of its seven losses coming by 8 points or fewer.  The Hornets rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency.  The Hornets also check in on two days of rest, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in this situation.  They'll give the Warriors their best shot tonight, and that will be good enough to stay within 9.5 points.  Take Charlotte.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on North Dakota State +16

The Key: The North Dakota State Bison are coming off a 23-10 season and a trip to the NCAA Tournament after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They returned four starters from last year's team and three key reserves, so they have almost everyone back.  They have opened 4-1 this season with their only loss coming by a final of 74-80 on the road to Illinois.  The Bison held a 14-point lead in the first half of that game before getting outscored 52-35 after intermission by the Illini.  Iowa State capped off an Emerald Coast Classic Tournament championship with an 84-73 win over Illinois.  But the Cyclones trailed 57-58 with 11 1/2 minutes remaining in that game.  I believe that common opponent gives a good indication that the Bison can hang with the Cyclones and stay within this 16-point spread.  Iowa State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off four straight games where it scored 80 points or more.  The Bison are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Dakota State.

7* Wizards/Cavs Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +9

The Key: The Washington Wizards have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season.  But with this slow start comes some line value that is tough to pass up.  After losing four straight coming in, and facing the defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers, the Wizards won't be lacking any motivation tonight.  They have had two days off in between games to get ready for Cleveland, too.  Turnovers have been a problem for the Wizards, but the Cavs are 0-8 ATS against teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Washington is 44-23 ATS in its last 67 road games off a close loss by 3 point or less.  Cleveland is 1-8 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Take Washington.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers +8

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The same cannot be said for the Clippers, who played the Timberwolves yesterday.  Not only will this be a 2nd of a back-to-back for the Clippers, it will also be their 5th game in 7 days and 8th game in 12 days.  They have nothing left in the tank for this game against the Blazers tonight.  Portland has not lost by more than 6 points to Los Angeles in any of the last 8 meetings in this series.  I think we're getting great value with the Blazers here given the rest situation.  Take Portland.

7* Ravens/Browns MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3

The Key:  The Ravens are an absolute mess right now.  They are without their three best offensive players in Joe Flacco, Steve Smith and Justin Forsett.  I give them little chance of staying competitive in this game against the Cleveland Browns as a result.  I also like that the Browns are coming off their bye week.  I like that the Browns have benched Johnny Manziel in favor of Josh McCown, who is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league.  McCown is completing 65 percent of his passes for 1,897 yards and an 11-4 TD/INT ratio this year.  He threw for a career-high 457 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-30 road win at Baltimore in their first meeting.  The Browns outgained the Ravens 505 to 377 in that game.  Another dominant performance can be expected from the Browns at home this time around.  The Ravens are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Cleveland.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on North Texas +20.5

The Key: North Texas hasn't covered a spread yet (0-3 ATS) this season and is undervalued as a result.  Northern Iowa is 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall, which includes an upset 71-67 home win over North Carolina.  It's clear to me that this line is way inflated given the starts these teams have had this season.  North Texas is 2-3 this year, but two losses have come by exactly two points.  Northern Iowa has just one win by more than 20 points during its 4-1 start.  The Panthers are a slow-it-down team, which makes it hard for them to cover big spreads like this one. The Mean Green are  scoring 86.2 points per game on 49.7% shooting, so their offense is fully capable of keeping them competitive in this game.  Northern Iowa is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games off a win by 30 points or more.  Take North Texas.

7* Pats/Broncos Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Denver +3

The Key: The Patriots are without their two best slot receivers in Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.  They're also without their most dangerous weapon out of the backfield in Dion Lewis.  This short-handed club is going to struggle against this elite Denver defense today.  The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks (34), fewest TD passes allowed (8) and fewest passing yards per game (190.6).  They held Aaron Rodgers to 77 passing yards at home.  Brock Osweiler is an upgrade over Peyton Manning right now.  He threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears last week.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Denver.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves have been the most profitable road team to back this season.  They are 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS in their eight road games this year, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game away from home.  I look for this trend to continue today as they are once again catching too many points against the Los Angeles Clippers.  The Timberwolves have won three in a row coming in, including a 101-91 road win at Sacramento on Friday.  The Clippers aren't playing well enough to be 9.5-point favorites here.  They are 4-7 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Timberwolves improve to 9-0 ATS on the road in 2015.  Take Minnesota.

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay Bucs +3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are by far the superior team in this one with the Indianapolis Colts.  The Bucs rank 7th in yardage differential (+33.0/game) while the Colts rank 27th (-46.4 yards/game).  The Bucs are 8th in total offense (370.7 YPG) while the Colts are 18th in total offense (345.9 YPG).  The Bucs are 13th in total defense (339.1 YPG) while the Colts are 27th (392.3 YPG).  Add it all up, and believe it or not, the Bucs are the better team.  They are 4-1 ATS in road games this season with outright wins over the Falcons, Eagles and Saints, and a 1-point loss to Houston. They clearly love playing in domes with the way they beat the Falcons and Saints.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Bills/Chiefs AFC Annihilator on Kansas City -4

The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They have outscored their opponents 130-39 in the process.  They have outgained each of their last 5 opponents as well.  The Chiefs have allowed 18 points or fewer in 6 straight, yielding just 12.2 PPG over that span.  The Bills are on a short week and should suffer a hangover from their loss to the Patriots last week.  QB Tyrod Taylor will play, but he's not going to be healthy with that shoulder injury suffered against New England.  The Chiefs are 11-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.  Take Kansas City.

6* NBA Western Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 197

The Key: The Utah Jazz are a slow-it-down team that plays some of the best defense in the NBA.  The Jazz rank 7th in defensive efficiency, allowing 99.2 points per 100 possessions.  They actually rank last in the NBA in pace, averaging 94.7 possessions per game.  They are 19th in offensive efficiency at 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  New Orleans is expected to be without leading scorer Anthony Davis, which is going to make life real difficult for them offensively.  Utah is 15-4 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.  The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Pelicans last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* Sun Belt Game of the Week on New Mexico State +17.5

The Key: The New Mexico State Aggies have quietly been a money-making machine down the stretch.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  They beat Idaho 55-48 as 7-point home dogs before going on the road and beating Texas State 31-21 as 16.5-point dogs and LA-Lafayette 37-34 as 14.5-point dogs.  Now they're going to be even more motivated to go up against the first-place team in the Sun Belt in the Arkansas State Red Wolves.  The Red Wolves are going to think that they can just show up and win this one, but that mindset is going to keep the Aggies in the game for four quarters.  NMSU certainly has the offense to make this interesting as it has put up 641, 527 and 498 total yards in its last three games overall.  Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 153-86 ATS since 1992.  Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ARKANSAS ST) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 28-8 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take New Mexico State.

6* GW/Cincinnati Barclays Center Classic *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati -5.5

The Key: Mick Cronin's Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the best teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 6-0 start behind their five returning starters.  Not only are they winning, they are dominating, outscoring teams by 31.4 points per game.  Because they had a close call against Nebraska yesterday, I believe this line is smaller than it should be against George Washington.  The Colonials are also 6-0, but they've had much closer games than Cincinnati as four of their six wins have come by single-digits.  George Washington is 0-6 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.  Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games off 4 straight games where it committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Take Cincinnati.

7* NCAAF Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina +19

The Key: The betting public wants nothing to do with South Carolina right now after it lost 22-23 at home to The Citadel last week.  But the Gamecocks didn't show up for that game.  They were highly competitive in their previous four games under their interim coach, which is a lot more significant to me than The Citadel result.  They won 19-10 over Vanderbilt in their first game without Steve Spurrier.  They went on to lose 28-35 at Texas A&M as 14-point dogs, 24-27 at Tennessee as 17-point dogs, and 14-24 at home to Florida as 7.5-point dogs only after the Gators tacked on a late TD to put the game away.  If they can hang with those four teams, they can certainly keep it close against Clemson at home.  South Carolina players met amongst themselves to get some things off their chest leading up to this game.  Shawn Elliott believes he sees a determined look in his players' eyes leading into this game.  ''You can kind of look at an individual and tell if they've got it or not,'' he said. ''I think everyone got it.''  This is South Carolina's National Championship as it won't be going to a bowl game.  Clemson continues to be overvalued due to its No. 1 national ranking, going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  It won by 10 of FSU (-12.5), by 10 over Syracuse (-30) and by 20 over Wake Forest (-29) as a big favorite in each game.  It is too big of a favorite once again this week.  Clemson is 0-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last two seasons.  The Gamecocks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.  Clemson is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 trips to South Carolina.  Take South Carolina.

6* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia Tech -3

The Key: Frank Beamer has stated this will be his last season.  Virginia Tech needs a victory at rival Virginia on Saturday in the Commonwealth Cup to send Beamer into retirement with a 23rd consecutive bowl game appearance. The Hokies fought valiantly for him in a 27-30 (OT) loss to North Carolina last week, and the Tar Heels are one of the best teams in the country.  The task is much easier against the 4-7 Cavaliers this week.  VA Tech is 11-0 in its last 11 meetings with Virginia with all 11 victories coming by 3 points or more.  VA Tech has held Virginia to 21 or fewer points in all 11 games, including 14 or less in 9 of those.  The Hokies are 27-7 ATS in their last 34 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Mike London is 3-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Virginia.  Take Virginia Tech.

6* SDSU/WVU FS1 National TV Annihilator on West Virginia -2.5

The Key: West Virginia is clearly one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  It is 5-0 and has won all five games by 8 points or more, including four by 13 points or more.  Three of the five wins have come by 41 or more points as well.  San Diego State has already lost two games, including a 43-49 home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock as 16.5-point favorites.  I think we're getting great value here on the Mountaineers as only 2.5-point favorites in this Las Vegas Invitational Championship Game.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.  Take West Virginia.