Sports Picks & Predictions

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on SMU -4

The Key: This game is all about revenge for SMU, which lost 89-78 at Arkansas last season. The Razorbacks aren't nearly the same team on the road, and I expect the tides to turn. Arkansas has rolled to this point. However, it is 0-8 ATS in road games off two consecutive home wins of 10 points or more under coach Anderson, losing by an average score of 77.5 to 63.3 in this spot. SMU is 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the number in three of its last four games under coach Brown, winning by an average score of 67.6 to 61.3 in this spot. The Razorbacks are a dismal 15-36 ATS in their last 51 road games while SMU is on a 12-3 ATS run as a home favorite or pickem. Lay the points.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator on Miami Ohio +3

The Key: Ohio has been a poor investment on the road where it is 0-4 ATS in its last four. In fact, it is 1-8 ATS the last three seasons in road games when playing on six days' rest or less. It is on a 0-6 ATS slide in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games. The Bobcats are also 0-5 ATS in their last five Tuesday contests. Miami Ohio has had three extra days to prepare and will be highly motivated on Senior Night. The Redhawks really got their passing game going last game and should find continued success through the air against an Ohio defense that ranks 108th nationally against the pass. The Redhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Year on Saints -2.5

The Key: New Orleans has been one of the best home teams in the NFL with Sean Payton as head man and Drew Brees under center. So, the fact it has lost two straight in the Superdome isn't sitting well. I expect the Saints to respond. They haven't lost three straight home games since 2005. They are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night Football games. I like Brees and company to be able to take advantage of a Baltimore pass defense that ranks 22nd in the league with 251.2 yards allowed per game. The Ravens have allowed opponents to complete 64.2 percent of their passes, and that number jumps to 66.1 percent on the road - not good. This is significant because the Saints are 8-1 ATS under Payton in home games played in the second half of the season versus teams that allow a completion percentage of 61.0 percent or higher. The Saints have won these games by an average score of 37.7 to 19.0. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Brown +19.5

The Key: Illinois is off a pair of massive blowout wins of 58 and 41 points and is being overvalued as a resulted against an experienced Brown squad. The Bears have dropped their last three but haven't lost by more than 15 points this season. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last five road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Fighting Illini are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. You want to fade double-digit favorites after a game where they scored 95 points or more if they are outscoring opponents by 8.0 ppg or more on average and are up against a team that is being outscored by 3.5 to 8.0 ppg on average. Doing so has produced a 78-37 ATS mark since 1997. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on UC Irvine +4.5

The Key: I'll take the points with an experienced UC Irvine squad that returns 12 of its 13 top scorers. The Anteaters won't be fazed here after playing a talented Arizona team. They ended up losing to the Wildcats by 17 points but were successful at the defensive end, holding them under 40% shooting. That loss actually sets up a nice situational play as the Anteaters are 26-9 ATS in road games off a double-digit road loss since 1997. The Gaels are 3-0 and have covered both of their lined games, but they take a big step up in competition here. The Gaels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. They are also 0-4 in their last four meetings with Irvine. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Giants +3.5

The Key: The Giants have struggled, but the Cowboys seem to bring out the best in them. This isn't the best spot for Dallas either. It defeated the Giants by 10 points last month so its tendency will be to look ahead to Thursday's showdown with the Eagles. The Giants have won or lost by fewer than 3.5 points in 21 of the last 30 meetings. Dallas is only 12-25 ATS as a favorite under coach Garrett. It is just 1-8 ATS under his watch following a stretch of five or six wins in a seven-game span. It also bodes well for us that Dallas is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more. It has lost these games by an average score of 34.2 to 28.0. Take the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Celtics +6

The Key: The Trail Blazers are being overvalued following six consecutive wins. They are 9-3 on the season but have played only three games on the road, losing two. The Celtics are 4-7 but have played some good teams close. They have four losses of five points or less to the likes of Dallas, Toronto, Phoenix and Cleveland, and they have a win over Chicago. Boston has been a tough road trip for the Blazers, who are 1-9 in their last 10 visits. Take the points.

6* NFL Vegas Line Mistake on Redskins +10

The Key: The 49ers are being overvalued by odds makers here. They haven't established dominance in their new stadium, where they are 2-2 and haven't won by more than five points. This is also a look-ahead spot for the Niners with a big division game against Seattle Thursday. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points in the second half of the season if they have a win percentage of 51-60%, have won two of their last three games and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced an 81-38 (68%) ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on Seahawks -6.5

The Key: I love the defending Super Bowl champs at home in a game they really need to have. They trail the Cardinals by three games in the division standings and are also contending for a playoff spot with the 49ers as well as teams in the NFC North and NFC East. Seattle doesn't have an easy game left on the schedule so it needs to take care of business at home where it has been nearly unbeatable in recent years. The Cardinals came in to Seattle and won in the regular season a year ago, and that loss will serve as added motivation. The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points under coach Carroll and have won these games by an average score of 28.8 to 12.7. Lay the points.

6* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Lions +7.5

The Key: Detroit fits into a simple system that has been way too good to ignore. You want to back road teams off a road loss in the month of November as doing so has produced a 75-30 (71%) ATS mark the last 10 seasons. There is also a system in play that stacks the odds heavily against New England. Eight games into the season or more, you want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points in a game involving teams with a +/- 0.4 yards per play differential if the team you are fading outgained its last opponent by 150 yards or more. That's because doing so has produced a 31-8 (80%) ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Bucks +3

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Wizards as they hit the road following last night's big win over Cleveland. The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win, and they'll have a tough time getting up for a Milwaukee team they defeated by 11 points earlier this month. That loss, along with last night's ugly performance in Toronto, assures us the Bucks will be motivated. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Annihilator on Navy +13

The Key: This is a sandwich game for Northeastern, which is off a big upset win at Florida State and has a showdown at UMass on deck. Since playing Michigan State to a five-point game in its opener, Navy was kicked at Notre Dame and Providence in its last two. Still, playing superior competition should benefit it here. Northeastern is an unreliable 2-10 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons. Teams headed up by Ed DeChellis are 11-2 ATS all-time in games played away from home following a road loss of 20 points or more. Take the points.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia +6

The Key: This is a major letdown spot for Miami, which put everything into last week's showdown against Florida State only to come up short after blowing a 16-0 lead. I don't see the Hurricanes being able to recover from that blow on the road where they are 1-3. Virginia is better than its 4-6 record leads you to believe, and it has had the benefit of a bye week to prepare. Plus, the Cavaliers need to win their last two to become bowl eligible, and they will be driven by that. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a cover, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Month on Nebraska -10

The Key: Odds makers appear to be begging for money on Minnesota, which is tied with Nebraska for second place in the Big Ten West. After destroying Iowa 51-14, the Golden Gophers held their own against Ohio State last Saturday. Yet, they're catching double digits? Something smells fishy. It's Senior Day in Lincoln, and the Huskers will be lacking no motivation. They were completely embarrassed in Madison, WI last week, and they were upset at Minnesota last season. They'll be out to save face and exact revenge here. Nebraska is 6-0 at home this season where it has won by an average of 22.5 points. The Cornhuskers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a spread loss and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss of more than 20 points. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Illinois +6.5

The Key: Illinois can still become bowl eligible if it wins its last two, and I like its chances of keeping its hopes alive against Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 0-7 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons, 0-7 ATS in road games following a stretch where they've lost four or five of their last six games since 1992 and 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Penn State hasn't won by more than six points on the road this season, and Illinois has been solid at home where it has picked up all four of its wins - one of those against Minnesota. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Annihilator on Long Beach State +2.5

The Key: This is a revenge game for Long Beach State, which lost both of last season's meetings with Kansas State by double digits. Those games were at K-State and Puerto Rico. Now the 49ers get to host the Wildcats, and I expect home court to prevail. Kansas State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 4-15 ATS as a road favorite of 3.0 points or less or pickem since 1997. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Diego State -6

The Key: San Diego State is one win away from becoming bowl eligible so it will be on a mission tonight. It also catches Air Force at a good time as the Falcons are expected to be without leading rusher Jacobi Owens. The Aztecs have had Air Force's number. They have won the last four meetings straight up and are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Their last three wins in the series have come by at least seven points. Air Force is 0-6 ATS in road games the last three seasons after racking up 275 or more rushing yards in two straight games. It is 0-8 ATS the last three seasons in road games after two consecutive games of forcing one turnover or less. San Diego State is 6-0 ATS the last three seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10.0 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Timberwolves +8.5

The Key: Off a big win over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, this matchup won't get San Antonio's competitive juices flowing. Minnesota is 3-0 ATS at home this season, and it has been competitive against the Spurs. The T-Wolves are 3-2 in the last five meetings and 2-0 in the last two home meetings. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Minnesota. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings -1

The Key: The Bulls are off a blowout win over the Clippers but are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a win. The Kings are off a loss to New Orleans but are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss. The Bulls are 6-0 on the road, but the Kings are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning S.U. record. The Kings have performed well against the Bulls, going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while winning their two home meetings during this span by 42 and 29 points. Take the Kings.

7* AFC West Game of the Month on Raiders +7.5

The Key: This is a sandwich game for Kansas City, which is off a big win over Seattle and has Denver on deck. You want to fade favorites off an upset win at home that have a winning record as doing so has produced a 23-5 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Chiefs have played five road games this season and won by more than 7.5 points in just one of them. The Raiders haven't been as bad as their 0-10 record looks. They've played New England, San Diego and Seattle tough and have five losses of seven points or less. You want to back underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season if they check in with seven or more consecutive losses as doing so has produced a 94-46 ATS mark since 1983. Lastly, the underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take the points.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on West Virginia -2

The Key: The Mountaineers let a heart-breaking one-point loss to TCU beat them twice as they laid an egg at Texas the following week. They haven't played since Nov. 8 so they've had plenty of time to put those losses behind them. It's senior night for West Virginia, and they'll be lacking no motivation as they seek revenge for back-to-back blowout losses to the Wildcats. The Mountaineers defeated Baylor 41-27 and took TCU right down to the wire. On their home turf, they are a better team than K-State, and that's why they're being favored over the 11th ranked team in the nation. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Annihilator on Harvard -16

The Key: Harvard will have no trouble getting up for this game. It was upset by Holy Cross last time out. And, in case that's not enough of a motivator, it was upset by Florida Atlantic last season. The Owls are 0-8 ATS in their last eight lined games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 20 points. They are also 0-7 ATS the last three seasons in road games after holding their previous opponent to 60 points or less. Lay the points. 

6* NCAAB Annihilator on Arkansas -12

The Key: Off a pair of easy wins to start the season, Wake Forest takes a big step up in competition tonight. When the Demon Deacons have caught a big number on the road, it's been for good reason. They are 19-34 ATS as a road underdog of 10 points or more since 1997. They are also 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons. They covered their first lined game of the season Monday but are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a cover, which is a sure sign of unreliability. Lay the points.

6* ESPN2 National TV Annihilator on Toledo -6.5

The Key: Toledo will want this game just a little bit more on senior night. The Rockets are still in the hunt for a MAC West title as Northern Illinois still has a tough game against Western Michigan to come. Bowling Green doesn't have the same level of motivation working in its favor as it has already wrapped up the weaker MAC East. Toledo is 4-0 in the last four meetings with these wins coming by an average of 10.3 points. The home team has had the overwhelming advantage as it is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings against Bowling Green. Lay the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +3

The Key: The Pistons have been a poor investment in the early going, but they have quietly covered the spread in three of their last four and are showing value in the home underdog role tonight. I expect a tremendous defensive effort from the Pistons following their worst defensive performance of the season. After holding Oklahoma City and Memphis below 40% shooting, they allowed the Magic to shoot 51.9%. The Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and have allowed their last two opponents to shoot above 51%. They have allowed 47% shooting or higher in five of their last seven games so there's a good chance the Pistons get it going offensively. Odds makers are certainly expecting to see a little offense tonight with the total set at 204.5. That bodes well for us as Van Gundy's teams are 30-11 ATS all-time in home games when the total is 200.0 to 204.5. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pelicans +3

The Key: New Orleans will have no trouble getting up for a Sacramento team that has won the last three meetings. The Pelicans played last night in Portland but are 4-1 ATS in their last five games without rest. The Kings have had the last two days off but are 0-4 ATS in their last four when playing on two days' rest. Sacramento is off a big win over the Spurs, but it is on an 8-19 ATS slide at home following a win. When the line is +3 to -3 in the first half of the season, you want to fade home teams off an upset win as doing so has produced a 53-25 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Murray State pk

The Key: Murray State returns eight of their top 10 scorers, including their top four, and it will be hungry following an upset loss at home in its opener. It will be further fueled by an 18-point home loss to Middle Tennessee State last season. Fortunately for the Racers, this is not the same MTSU squad. The Blue Raiders lost their top for scorers from last year's team. The Racers are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss, 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Take Murray State.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator on Ohio +3

The Key: It's senior night for Ohio, and needing a win to become bowl eligible and having had a bye week to prepare, I expect the Bobcats to find a way. Northern Illinois is off a big win over Toledo and will have a tough time bringing the same level of energy to this contest. The Huskies have been a poor investment in MAC play, going 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four Tuesday games. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. What's even more impressive is the fact Ohio is 7-0 ATS in home games against teams with a win percentage above 75% since 1992. The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Titans +6

The Key: The Steelers haven't been the same team on the road where they have lost their last two to Cleveland and the Jets. In fact, they are only 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 road games versus teams with a losing home record. This is a team that tends to play to the level of its competition. With Big Ben under center, consider that Pittsburgh is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games versus teams like Tennessee that have a win percentage of 17-27%. The Titans have lost their last three games with turnovers being part of the problem in their last two. However, teams headed up by coach Whisenhunt are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. They have won by an average score of 32.5 to 18.0 in this spot. You also want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points in the second half of the season that have won two of their last three games if they have a win percentage of 51-60% on the season and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced an 80-38 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Annihilator on Tulane +2.5

The Key: Wake Forest won last season's meeting at home by 15 points yet it is laying only 2.5 here? It looks like odds makers are begging for the money to come in on Wake. We won't bite. The Demon Deacons lost three key contributors from last year's team, including the two best shooters. Tulane, on the other hand, returns its top six scorers. The Deacs have also struggled on the road where they went 1-11 last season and are 0-6 in their last six. The Green Wave are 7-2 ATS in their last nine versus ACC foes and 13-4 ATS under coach Conroy in home non-conference contests. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Hornets +4

The Key: The Hornets were pummeled at Golden State last game, but they were in a tough spot - playing their second road game in as many nights against one of the best teams in the NBA. That loss will have them motivated here. The Hornets have been one of the best bounce-back teams in the league, going 31-15 ATS following a loss since the start of last season. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of more than 10 points. Much of Dallas' early success can be attributed to how well it's taken care of the basketball. Recent history suggests it won't matter tonight. The Hornets are 11-1 ATS in home games versus teams that commit an average of 14.0 turnovers per game of less under coach Clifford. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 104.3 to 96.0. Also, the home team is 5-0 in the last five meetings with Charlotte winning by 25 the last time it hosted. Take the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Lakers +8

The Key: The Lakers are 1-8 but are showing value catching eight points. They have been playing much better ball of late, losing by more than eight points just once in their last five games. Plus, LA was blown out at Golden State earlier this season and will be looking for payback. The Warriors just played yesterday and blew out Charlotte, and they have four days off after this game so I wouldn't be surprised if they start their vacation a little prematurely. You want to fade road favorites in Sunday games that are called for at least two more fouls per game than their opponents. Doing so has produced a 9-1 ATS mark over the last five seasons and a 35-12 ATS record since 1996. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Annihilator on UC-Irvine -13.5

The Key: This is a difficult spot for Pacific, which played at Western Illinois Friday and is now back on the West Coast. While the Tigers have been traveling, UC-Irvine has been home. The Anteaters will be hungry too as they look to avenge last season's five-point loss at Pacific. The Tigers don't return a single starter and lost seven of their top eight scorers. The Anteaters, on the other hand, return four starters and 12 of their top 13 scorers. Pacific is 1-10 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15.0 points since 1997, losing these games by an average of 19.3 points. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Lay the number.

6* AFC Annihilator on Texans +3

The Key: This game has letdown written all over it for Cleveland, which is off a big win over the Bengals that moved it into first place in the AFC North and ended a 17-game slide in road divisional games. Houston has had a bye week to prepare, and I expect it to benefit from making the switch to Ryan Mallet, who worked with Bill O'Brien in New England. When the line is +3 to -3 in Weeks 10-13, you want to take road teams that have lost four of their last five games as doing so has produced a 41-16 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

7* NFL Game of the Month on Rams +10.5

The Key: Back home after three straight on the road, St. Louis will respond following a disappointing effort against the Cardinals. The Rams are a much better team than they showed last week. We've seen what they are capable of in games against Dallas, Philadelphia, Seattle and San Francisco. They defeated the two later teams and played the two former teams to three and six-point games. The Rams are 10-1 ATS after a loss of 14 points or more under coach Jeff Fisher and have won by an average score of 22.1 to 18.6 in this spot. They are also 8-1 ATS under Fisher in the second half of the season versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 yards per play or more. Shaun Hill is expected to get the start, and I expect him to make the most of his opportunity. His teams are 14-6-2 ATS the last 22 times he's lined up under center. Fading road favorites that outgain opponents by 70.0 passing yards per game or more and allowed 5.5 or less yards per pass last game has produced a 69-33 ATS mark since 1983, including a 17-5 ATS record the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NFC *CA$H COW* on Giants +4.5

The Key: This will be a tough encore for the 49ers following a big overtime win in New Orleans. The Giants have lost four in a row, but three of them were on the road. The Giants have been a much better team at home, and I like their chances of keeping this one within the number. Manning has had a ton of success against the 49ers, going 5-1 SU and ATS against them in his career. The Giants have won or lost by fewer than 4.5 points in seven of the last eight meetings. In the second half of the season, you want to fade favorites off an upset win if they own a win percentage of 51-60%. Doing so has produced a 47-20 ATS mark since 1983, including a 9-2 ATS record the last five seasons.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Oregon State +9.5

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back upset losses to Cal and Washington State and further fueled by last season's loss at Arizona State, the Beavers will give the Sun Devils a game. Since 1992, Oregon State is an impressive 30-14 ATS when it checks in off two straight losses to conference opponents. It's 22-9 ATS during this span off a loss of seven points or less in conference play. It is also on a 9-2 ATS run when checking in off an upset loss at home to conference foe. The defensive side of the football has really let the Beavers down the past two weeks. However, they are 6-0 ATS all-time after allowing 450 yards or more in two consecutive games under coach Riley and have won by an average score of 32.5 to 24.7 in this spot. The home team has had a huge advantage in this series as it has won 12 of the last 14 meetings. The Sun Devils are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Timberwolves +11.5

The Key: This line is an overreaction to Minnesota's ugly 48-point loss to New Orleans as well as Dallas' lopsided 53-point win over Philadelphia. Right away, I like the fact that fading home teams that led by 20 points or more at halftime of their previous game has produced a 97-54 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, you want to back double digit underdogs that have lost by 18 points or more against the spread in their last three games when they are up against an opponent that has gone under the total by 18 points or more in its last three games. Doing so has produced a 40-12 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +3

The Key: I like Oklahoma State to bring its three-game skid to an end on Senior Night. The Cowboys have had a bye week to gear up for this one, and they catch Texas at a great time. The Longhorns are in a letdown spot following a big upset win over West Virginia. The Cowboys were smacked at K-State last time out, but they are an awesome 16-3 ATS in home games off a road loss of 21 points or more since 1992 and have won by an average score of 32.9 to 24.8 in this spot. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Blowout on Northern Iowa -22

The Key: With all five starters back, I expect Northern Iowa to start the season strong with a blowout win over a North Dakota team that lost five of its top six scorers. The Panthers return all of their top six scoring options. ND really struggled on the road last season, finishing 6-14 SU and ATS. UNI, meanwhile, was fantastic at home where it finished 11-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in line games. The Panthers have had the upper hand in the series. They are 5-0 in the last five meetings. Two of the last four wins have come by 23 and 25 points, and I'm expecting at least a 25-point margin of victory here given how much the Panthers bring back and how much ND lost. North Dakota is 0-7 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. Lay the points.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia Tech +5.5

The Key: The Hokies are in the midst of a rare losing streak, but having had a bye week to regroup, I expect them to right the ship. As if their current three-game slide isn't enough motivation, they saw a nine-game win streak over Duke come to an end with last season's 13-10 loss to the Blue Devils. They'll be out for payback and to keeps their bowl hopes alive. The Hokies are 17-8 ATS following two of more consecutive losses under coach Beamer. They are also 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7.0 points under his watch. Take the points.

6* Friday Night Lights "Total" Annihilator on Tulsa/UCF Under 56

The Key: UCF is one of the top defensive teams in the nation. Having had an extra week to prepare, I expect it to completely shut down Tulsa. The Knights rank 8th in the nation in total defense with just 308.2 ypg allowed. They've been even better at home where they are giving up just 244.0 yards and 14.5 points per game. The Under is 4-0 in the Knights' last four games following a loss, 6-1 in their last seven games following a bye week and 6-1 in their last seven Friday games. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets +3.5

The Key: This is a sandwich game for Indiana, which is off a big win over Miami and plays in Chicago tomorrow. It won't give a Denver squad that has lost six in a row its full attention. The Nuggets are a better team than their record indicates, and I expect them to show that here in a matchup against a weaker Eastern Conference. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus the Eastern Conference while the Pacers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine versus the West. The Nuggets are 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings, including 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Indiana. You want to back underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off an upset loss at home if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced a 29-8 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Season Opener on William & Mary +18.5

The Key: Don't expect Florida to be in top form right out of the gate. The Gators will really miss guard Scottie Wilbekin, who set the tone on both ends of the floor. William & Mary won 20 games last season and is expected to be even better than it was last year. It is on an 8-1 ATS run when playing away from home as an underdog or pickem. In addition, you want to take underdog of 10 points or more in the first five games of the season if they closed out last season with three consecutive covers or more and are up against a team that closed last season with eight wins or more in its last 10 games. Doing so has produced a 24-5 ATS mark since 1997. Take the points.

6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Dolphins -4.5

The Key: This is a better spot for Miami as it gets to play at home on a short week. The Dolphins play their next two on the road with one of those in Denver so they know the importance of taking care of business here. They'll have no problem finding motivation as they have lost the last three meetings in the series, including a 29-10 loss at Buffalo earlier this season. The Miami offense struggled in Detroit against the best defensive team in the NFL, but it had averaged 30.6 points over its previous five games. The Dolphins are averaging 25.2 ppg on the season, which is significant because Buffalo is 1-8 ATS the last three seasons versus teams that average 24.0 ppg or more. It has lost to these teams by an average score of 33.4 to 17.3. In addition, you want to back favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that average 125-150 rushing yards per game when they are matched up with a team that allowed 95-125 rushing yards per game. Doing so has produced a 77-39 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Lay the points.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Bulls/Raptors Under 197

The Key: Hard-fought defensive battles have been the norm in this series recently, and I expect no different tonight. We are getting a great number here because both teams have been overs machines early on, but the reality is these teams haven't combined for more than 186 points in their last five meetings. We have seen just 177.4 total points scored on average during this span. The Bulls jumped out to a big lead in their last game against Detroit with a 60-point first-half performance. That bodes well for us as Chicago is 8-0 under the last three seasons after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of their last game. We have seen only 173.3 total points scored on average in this spot. Take the under.

6* NCAAF Annihilator on Texas-San Antonio -7

The Key: The Roadrunners have the edge at home playing on a short week. Southern Miss has been a terrible investment at 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games. It was pounded 63-17 by Marshall last week and hasn't shown the ability to bounce back. The Golden Eagles are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after being held to less than 20 points in their previous game. It is also worth noting that the Golden Eagles are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-5 ATS in their last five Thursday games. The Roadrunners are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The UTSA defense has been good, but the offensive hasn't held up on its end of the bargain. That changes tonight against a So. Miss defense that ranks 104th in the country with 452.6 ypg allowed. Lay the points.

6* ESPN2 National TV Annihilator on Kent State +13.5

The Key: Kent State is 0-5 in conference play but is still playing hard as it tries to avoid being skunked. Bowling Green will have a hard time getting up for the Golden Flashes. It is off a blowout win at Akron and has Toledo on deck so it will be in danger of looking ahead, especially since it handled the Golden Flashes by 19 points last season. Plus, the Falcons became bowl eligible last week and appear to be in the driver's seat in the MAC East. I just don't see them being motivated enough to stomp on Kent State's throat. The Golden Flashes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Golden Flashes are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings at Bowling Green, and the underdog is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +7

The Key: The Pistons have yet to cover a spread this season, and we are catching a very generous number as a result. The Pistons match up well with the Wizards and have won or lost by seven points or fewer in 18 of the last 20 meetings. Washington has won its first two at home, but the Pistons are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Wizards are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Mavericks -6.5

The Key: I'm not yet sold on the Kings, and it appears odds makers aren't either, installing them as a pretty hefty road dog despite their 5-2 start. The Mavericks are off a loss, but they are a team that responds following defeats, perhaps better than any other team. In fact, Dallas has followed up its previous two losses with wins of 18 and 23 points, and it is an impressive 45-14 ATS in its last 59 games following a loss. The Mavs are 20-0 in their last 20 home games against the Kings, winning them by an average of 13.1 points. Lay the number.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator (ESPN2) on Toledo +5

The Key: Toledo could be without QB Logan Woodside, but it is still showing value catching better than a field goal. The Rockets currently lead the MAC West with a 5-0 conference record but can't afford a loss here because Northern Illinois would own the tiebreaker if both teams finish with identical conference records. Both of these teams love to run the football, but I give Toledo the edge because it has the superior run defense. The Rockets rank 14th in the nation with 113.3 rushing yards allowed per game. The Huskies rank 59th with 153.2 rushing yards allowed per game and have given up an average of 210.3 yards on the ground over their last four games. The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. The Rockets are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings at Northern Illinois. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Panthers +7

The Key: The Carolina offense has been dismal the past two games, but that actually bodes well for us here because we are catching a good number as a result. The Panthers are 24-10 ATS all-time after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. They have won by an average of 0.3 points in this situation. In addition, underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that have scored 14 points or less in two straight games are 21-4 ATS the last three seasons. Carolina is 10-5 ATS all-time with Cam Newton under center when catching 3.5 to 10.5 points. It is also 6-2 ATS in Newton's starts versus teams with a win percentage of 70-80%. Take the points.

6* NBA Annihilator on Knicks +1.5

The Key: Look for the Knicks to bring their four-game losing streak to an end here. These teams just played Saturday in Atlanta with the Hawks winning, but now they hit the road where they are 0-3. Atlanta is just 8-26 in its last 34 road games in the series. The Hawks are also 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a cover. The Knicks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a losing road record, 14-3 ATS the last three seasons following three consecutive road games and 33-17 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a loss where it allowed 100 points or more. Take New York.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Bears +7.5

The Key: This is a must-win game for the Bears. Having had a bye week to sort some things out, I expect them to take the Packers right down to the wire. The Packers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games versus teams with a losing record. They are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons versus teams that allow 7.5 yards per pass or more. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last six November contests. The road team has been the play in this series of late as it is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Bears lost the season's first meeting.  However, you want to back road teams that are off a road loss and seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent. Doing so has produced a 72-33 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. You also want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off a loss of 10 points or more when they are matched up against an opponent that trailed by 14 points or more at the half of their previous game. Doing so had produced a 53-19 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Suns +1

The Key: This is a tough encore for Golden State as it goes on the road with no rest following yesterday's big win over Houston. The Suns will be highly motivated following back-to-back defeats. Home court has been huge in this match. The home team is 6-1 in the last seven, including 4-0 in the last four. The Suns are a reliable 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a spread loss. They are 29-14 ATS as an underdog and 11-2 ATS when playing on Sunday under Hornaceck. You want to back any team on Sunday that is off a home loss to a division opponent as doing so has produced a 31-8 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take Phoenix.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Jets +6

The Key: The Steelers rolled last week at home, but they are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games following a win of more than 14 points. They are also 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games versus teams that have a losing home record. Since Tomlin took over, the Steelers have been a poor investment against poor teams. In fact, they are 6-15 ATS under his watch versus teams that are outscored by 6.0 points per game or more. You want to back underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that check in off seven consecutive losses or more as doing so has produced a 92-45 (67%) ATS mark since 1983. Also, home underdogs or pickems that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games are 119-64 ATS since 1983 if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a team with a winning record. Take the points.

6* NFL Non-Conference Annihilator on Lions -2.5

The Key: I'll gladly lay this small number with the NFL's top defensive team following a bye week. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye. The Dolphins punished San Diego 37-0 last Sunday, but history tells us not to overreact. In fact, you want to fade road teams off a win of 21 points or more when they are matched up against an opponent that scored three points or less in the first half of its last game. Doing so has produced a 15-4 ATS mark the last five seasons and a 36-12 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Lay the points.

7* NCAAF Favorite of the Week on Western Kentucky -7

The Key: Western Kentucky's 3-5 record is deceiving. The Hilltoppers have played five of their first eight games on the road and have three single-possession losses on the season. The schedule now turns in their favor as they play their next three at home, and I expect them to take advantage. UTEP has been a bad investment as an underdog, going 3-11 ATS in the role going back to the start of last season. The Miners have been a good bet this season, covering the number in six of eight games and each of their last three. However, now's the time to fade away as they are 1-10 ATS since 1992 when checking in with covers in six or seven games during an eight-game span. The Miners rolled against So. Miss last week, but the score was a little deceiving as they were outgained 402-234. Performances like that have been telling as they are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in road games after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. You want to back home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that allow 440.0 ypg or more when they are matched up against a team that gives up 390.0 to 440.0 ypg. Doing so has produced a 44-18 ATS mark since 1992. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Clippers -4

The Key: Head coach Dcc Rivers has called out his players, and I expect them to respond. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Home court has been huge in this matchup with the home team going 6-0 in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 7.5 points. The Clippers are 5-0 in their last five at home in the series, winning these by an average of 8.0 points. You want to back teams like the Clippers that are averaging 48.0 rebounds per game or less and allowing their opponents to shoot 50% from the field or better. Doing so has produced a 22-4 ATS mark since 1996. Lay the points.

6* ACC Early Annihilator on Syracuse +3.5

The Key: Duke has been scraping by, but its luck runs out here. The Blue Devils have found ways to win despite being massively outgained in each of their last four games, but it can't continue. This is the final home game of the season for Syracuse so it will be leaving everything on the field. The Orange lost a tough one to NC State last week, but they are 8-1 ATS the last three seasons following a loss to a conference foe. They are also a strong 30-16 ATS in home games after playing a home game since 1992. You want to fade road favorites that average 34.0 ppg or more when they off a win of six points or less and are up against a team that allows 21-28.0 ppg. Doing so has produced a 31-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Underdog of the Week on Texas-San Antonio +10

The Key: UTSA's bye week couldn't have come at a better time. The Roadrunners lost 34-0 at home to UTEP as a 14-point favorite last time out. I expect the extra time off to do them some good and for them to regroup here. Consider that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset loss at home as a double-digit favorite are 41-11 ATS in conference play since 1992. The Roadrunners have been a sweet play on the road where they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16. They are 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 points over the last 3 seasons. Rice has won five in a row by 14 points or more and odds makers are only asking it to lay 10 here? Perhaps they're thinking what I'm thinking. The Owls will be peeking ahead to next week's matchup at Marshall. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +7.5

The Key: This line is an overreaction to Oklahoma City being without Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. OKC is 1-4 but all four losses have come on the road and against some pretty good teams. Memphis is 5-0 but hasn't played as difficult of a schedule as the Thunder. Under coach Brooks, the Thunder are 49-27 ATS following two or more consecutive losses, 56-33 ATS after failing to cover in two or more consecutive games and 57-38 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. OKC is at home and has had two days to gear up for this one. It has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 10 straight home games versus the Grizzlies. Take the points.

6* Mountain West Friday Night Lights on Wyoming +7.5

The Key: This is a tough spot for Utah State, which is playing on the road on a short week after making the long trip from Hawaii. The Aggies are also down to their fourth-string QB. Kent Myers played well against Hawaii, but I see him taking a step back here. Wyoming has a lot of momentum following a nice win over Fresno State, and it will be out for revenge after getting crushed at Utah State last year. The Cowboys are 3-1 at home with the lone loss coming by seven points. The home team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with these wins coming by an average of 29.3 points. Take the points.

6* AAC Friday Night Lights on Memphis -7

The Key: Memphis will be the hungrier team tonight. Temple is off a very satisfying upset victory over East Carolina. Plus, the Owls upset Memphis on the road in last year's battle, and the Tigers will be out for revenge. When taking a closer look, Temple's win over East Carolina isn't that impressive. In fact, it was outgained by 297 yards but benefited from five ECU turnovers. Memphis likely won't do the Owls many favors as its ball security has been outstanding outside of one game. The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning record and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games. Lay the points.

6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Bengals -6

The Key: The Bengals are the superior team and are in a superior spot, getting to play at home on a short week rather than on the road. Home field has been good to Cincinnati. It is 13-0-1 in its last 14 regular-season home games, winning these games by an average of 14.3 points. From a spread standpoint, the Bengals are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 home games. Home field has also been big in this matchup with the home side going 5-0 in the last five meetings. These wins have come by an average of 10.4 points. The Bengals have three straight on the road after this so they know they need to take care of business tonight. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Spurs/Rockets Over 199.5

The Key: The Spurs have finished under the number in each of their first three games. The Rockets have come in below the number in each of their first five games. We are getting a very favorable number here as a result. Houston has looked good defensively in the early going, but it has played a very weak schedule to this point. It takes a big step up in competition here. Six of the last eight matchups between these teams have gone over this number with an average of 213.9 total points scored. The over is 14-4 in the Rockets' last 18 home games. The over is also 26-11 in Houston's games against teams with a win percentage of 60-70% under coach McHale.

6* NCAAF "Total" Annihilator on Clemson/Wake Forest Over 42.5

The Key: We are getting a favorable number here because Clemson has finished under the total in each of its last four and Wake Forest has come in under the number in each of its last five. The Clemson offense has struggled since ripping off 50 points against North Carolina and 41 points against NC State. However, those struggles came against Louisville, Boston College and Syracuse - three really good defensive teams. I like Clemson's chances of putting some points on the board against Wake. The Tigers have scored at least 30 points on the Demon Deacons in each of the past five meetings while averaging 39.4 during this span. Wake isn't good offensively, but I don't think it will need to provide Clemson much help for this one to make it over the number. When the total is 42.5 to 49.0 in weeks 10-13, you want to play the "over" on road teams that have beaten the spread by 49 total points or more over their last seven games. Doing so has produced a 41-15 (73.2%) mark since 1992.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +3.5

The Key: The Nuggets will be out for some payback following Monday's home loss to the Kings. They are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss while the Kings are on a 7-19 ATS slide at home following a win. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in Sacramento. You want to fade home favorites that are off two straight wins of six points or less when they are matched up against an opponent that is off a game where both it and its foe scored 105 points or more. Doing so has produced a 58-25 ATS mark since 1996. This system is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS the last three seasons. Take the points.

6* MAC *CA$H COW* on Ball State +3

The Key: Ball State is better than its 3-5 record leads you to believe. It's suffered a few tough losses but now has it going with back-to-back impressive wins. This is not the same Northern Illinois team we've seen in years past, but it is still getting that kind of respect from odds makers. It's 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a result. The offense isn't nearly as explosive as we are used to seeing. It has been held to 28 points or less in four of its last five games, 17 of less in three of these. Consider that Ball State has scored 32+ points in each of its last three. The NIU defense hasn't been opportunistic at all. It has forced only four turnovers in the last seven games. This is significant because the Huskies are 0-6 ATS after two consecutive games of forcing one turnover or none under coach Carey. They have lost by an average score of 29.8 to 22.3 in this spot. The Ball State defense has been extremely opportunistic of late, forcing 10 turnovers over its last two games. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Trail Blazers +3

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and with The Big Three coming to town, expect Portland to play some inspired basketball. Cleveland was able to bounce back against the Bulls following a bad opener against the Knicks. However, I expect the Cavaliers to be inconsistent in the early going as they adjust to new roles and learn how to play together. Portland is a tough place to play, and the Trail Blazers aren't at all happy about their 1-2 start. Portland has been a phenomenal home dog over the years. In fact, it is 85-56 ATS as a home dog of six points or less since 1996, including 51-31 ATS as a home dog of three points or fewer during this span. Take the points.

6* MAC *CA$H COW* on Kent State +14

The Key: This is too many points to ask Toledo to lay on the road considering how poor it is defensively. The Rockets are giving up 33.6 points and 449.9 yards per game. This is also a look-ahead spot for them with a big showdown at Northern Illinois on deck. The Rockets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams with losing records, 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games versus teams with losing home records. Toledo is 0-6 ATS the last two seasons after allowing 6.25 yards per play or more in its previous game. It is also 0-6 ATS under coach Campbell in road games following a win against a conference foe. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants +3.5

The Key: Off back-to-back defeats, the Giants will be lacking no motivation. They will be well rested and well prepared following a bye week. They'll also be happy to be playing at home where they've won their last two by double digits. Indianapolis was shredded last week, giving up 522 yards through the air to Big Ben and the Steelers. With an extra week of preparation time on his side, I expect Eli Manning to shred the Indy secondary as well. The Colts are the top offensive team in the league statistically, but the Giants are 30-13 ATS versus teams that average 375.0 ypg or more under coach Coughlin. They are also 25-11 ATS under Coughlin versus teams that average 260 ypg or more through the air. You want to fade road teams that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they carry a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced a 73-36 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on 76ers +9.5

The Key: The Rockets have stayed focused early against inferior teams and are 3-0 SU and ATS, but this is where I believe they start looking ahead. They play in Miami tomorrow, and that game is followed by games against the Spurs and Warriors. The 76ers are 0-3 SU and ATS and will be hungry for their first "W" of the season. They kicked by Miami last time out but are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit defeat at home. The 76ers won last season's home meeting 123-117, and the home team has certainly been the play in this series as it is on a 6-0 SU and ATS run. Philly's three home wins during this stretch have come by 8.0 points on average. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Trail Blazers -3.5

The Key: This is a tough spot for Golden State, which makes the trip up to Portland to play without a day of rest. The Trail Blazers had yesterday off and will be very focused following a disappointing performance in Sacramento. The Warriors won big in Sacramento in their opener and drilled the Lakers last night as well. However, they are catching some points, which tells me odds makers want the money on Golden State. We won't take the bait. The Warriors are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a win of more than 10 points. Lay the number.

6* Sunday Night Football "Total" Annihilator on Ravens/Steelers Under 48

The Key: We are getting a great number here because Pittsburgh combined for 85 points last week and Baltimore combined for 51. The Ravens and Steelers have come in under 48 points in 14 of the last 15 meetings, including seven straight, and we've seen an average of only 37.1 total points scored between the teams in those seven matchups. Expect this trend to continue. When the total of between 42.5 and 49.0 points, you want to play the "under" on teams like Pittsburgh that have a winning record and are off an upset win of 10 points or more at home. Doing so has produced a 25-6 (81%) mark since 1983, including an 11-1 (92%) mark the last 10 seasons. In addition, the under is 7-1 in the Steelers' last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Take the under.

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Buccaneers +7

The Key: Outside of two games, the Bucs have been highly competitive with their other five games all being decided by six points or less. They beat the Steelers on the road and nearly defeated New Orleans in the Superdome where it has won 11 straight so they have what it takes to play with the Browns. You want to back road teams that have lost by 42 points or more ATS over the last five games if they carry a win percentage of 25% or worse on the season. Doing so has produced a 15-2 ATS mark the last three seasons. Take the points.

7* NFL Situational Game of the Year on Jets +10

The Key: Historically, this is a fantastic situation to back the Jets. Consider that road underdogs or pickems are 26-6 ATS since 1983 when they check in off seven or more consecutive losses and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off two or more consecutive wins. Teams fitting this situation have been underdogs of 11.9 points on average but have lost by only 4.3 points on average. Everything Kansas City does offensively stems from its running game. The Jets rank fifth in the NFL against the run with only 85.4 yards allowed per game. Their ability to stop the run will keep the Kansas City offense out of rhythm. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +2

The Key: Expect a letdown from the Suns in Utah following last night's big win over the defending champion Spurs. The Jazz will be highly motivated after losing their first two and fresh having had last night off. Utah has given the Suns some problems. The Jazz have won the last two meetings and are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five at home in the series. Utah is also a rock solid 101-71 ATS since 1996 in home off two or more consecutive losses against the number and has won by an average score of 100.1 to 93.7 in this situation. Take the Jazz.

7* Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +14.5

The Key: I missed with Oklahoma State last week but will come right back with the Cowboys here as they are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog. They are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS loss, 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games in November. You want to fade favorites of 10.5 to 21.0 points that allowed nine points or less last game when they are matched up against a team that's off two straight losses of 17 points or more. Doing so has produced a 29-7 ATS mark since 1992. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points.

6* ACC Annihilator on Virginia +3.5

The Key: I like Virginia catching points because of its ability to stop the run. The Cavaliers rank ninth in the nation with 100.4 rushing yards allowed per game. The Cavaliers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games versus teams with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games versus teams with a winning home record. The Yellow Jackets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Take the points.

7* C-USA Game of the Year on Florida International +6

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and well-prepared following a bye week, FIU will give Rice all it wants and more. You want to fade teams like Rice with a +/- 0.6 yards per play differential when they are on the road after giving up 225 total yards or less in their previous game when they are matched up against a team that is being outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 35-8 (81%) ATS mark since 1992. The Golden Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavaliers +4

The Key: LeBron James played horrible last night as emotions surrounding his homecoming got the best of him. I expect a much stronger effort from him here and for the Cavs to take the Bulls down to the wire as a result. Cleveland's Big Three saw opening night going a lot differently, and they will be fueled by last night's ugly performance. I expect maximum effort at the defensive end, especially knowing they'll have to be much better than they were last night to compete with Chicago. The Bulls have been a terrible home investment in recent seasons. In fact, they went 35-55 ATS at the United Center the past two seasons while winning these games by only 2.7 points on average. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win and 0-6 ATS in their last six games when playing on one day of rest. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Tulane +6.5

The Key: Tulane has improved throughout the season in each of Curtis Johnson's three seasons as head man, going 9-0 ATS in October under his watch. The Green Wave have played much better football their past two games, and we should see continued improvement following a bye week. Tulane has been solid defensively this season, especially against the pass (ranks 30th in the nation against the pass). The offense hasn't held up on its end of the bargain, but it should be better with an extra week of preparation, and it should benefit from playing against a Cincinnati defense that ranks 118th in the nation. Seven games or more into the season you want to back teams like Tulane that have a +/- 40.0 rushing yards per game differential after allowing 100 rushing yards or less in two straight games when they are up against a team that has been outgained on the ground by an average of 50.0 yards per game or more. Doing so has produced a perfect 11-0 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Panthers +3

The Key: The Saints shouldn't be laying three points on the road. They are 0-7 ATS since the start of last season as a road favorite and have lost these games by an average score of 25.9 to 20.6. The Saints are also 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games. Carolina is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season going back to last season. The Panthers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game. The Panthers have won three of the past four matchups, including their last two at home. Going back, they've won or lost by only three points or less in 18 of the last 23 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Knicks +13

The Key: This line is an overreaction to New York's lopsided loss to the Bulls last night. The Bulls defend better than the Cavs. Plus, I think it's going to take this new Cleveland team some time to build chemistry. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points and 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing without a day of rest. Take the points.

6* ESPN National TV Annihilator on Louisville +4.5

The Key: The defending national champs have been overvalued all season, and that continues to be the case here. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games, including 0-4 ATS in their last four on the road. They gave up 470 yards to Notre Dame last time out, and that doesn't bode well for them as they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. FSU is fortunate to still be undefeated, and it will get all it wants from the top defensive team in the country tonight. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Jazz +3.5

The Key: The Rockets won easily in Los Angeles last night but are on a 3-13 ATS slide following a win of 15 points or more and have lost these contests by an average score of 106.9 to 106.7. The Rockets are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven when playing without a day of rest. The Jazz have had a lot of success against Houston at home where they are 35-10 in the last 45. They won their most recent home meeting against Houston 109-103. Take the points.

6* World Series Game 7 *CA$H COW* on Royals -133

The Key: The Royals enter Game 7 full of confidence and momentum following a 10-0 victory in Game 6. They also have a ton of history on their side. Home teams are 9-0 in the last nine World Series Game 7s, and the Giants are 0-4 in World Series Game 7s. The Royals are 10-0 this season after scoring nine runs or more. They are 5-0 in their last five games as a home favorite, 4-0 in their last four playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 5-0 in Guthrie's last five starts and 5-0 in his last five starts versus NL opponents. Guthrie has been in a groove, holding foes to two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts. The Giants are 0-5 in their last five games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-5 in Hudson's last five starts versus AL clubs. Hudson hasn't been as sharp as Guthrie, giving up three earned runs or more in seven of his last eight starts. Take Kansas City.

7* World Series Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -134

The Key: Look for the Royals to stay alive behind a gem from Ventura, who outdueled Peavy in Game 2. The Royals are 6-0 in Ventura's last six starts, 6-0 in his last six starts versus winning clubs and 6-0 in his last six starts on five days' rest. The Royals are 9-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus teams that strand 6.9 baserunners or less per game and 8-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus teams that draw three walks or less per game. Peavy has a terrible track record at Kauffman Stadium, where his clubs are 0-6 in his last six starts. He's allowed six, five, six and four runs in his last four starts there. Take Kansas City.

6* NBA Opening Night Annihilator on Mavericks +4.5

The Key: I think the Mavs will want this one just a little bit more as it will be motivated by losing to the Spurs in seven games in last season's playoffs. Dallas has been an extraordinary investment on the road where it is 50-20 ATS in its last 70. The Mavs are on a 24-11 ATS run as a road underdog of six points or less and a 16-6 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the Mavs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Redskins +10.5

The Key: The Cowboys are being overvalued here. Washington is a better team than its record might lead you to believe. It ranks 7th in the NFL in both total offense and defense. Plus, this is a huge rivalry game that the Redskins always seem to get up for. They have won or lost by less than 10.5 points in seven of the last eight meetings, 13 of the last 15, 17 of the last 20 and 22 of the last 26 so there is a ton of value in them catching double digits. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS following five or six wins in a seven-game stretch under coach Garrett, losing by an average score of 30.5 to 21.8 in this spot. Dallas is also on a 0-4 ATS Monday Night Football slide. The underdog is 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings. The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings at Dallas. Take the points.

7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Year on Saints pk

The Key: New Orleans is 2-4 but the four losses have come on the road with three of them coming by six points combined. In other words, the Saints are a much better football team than their record might lead you to believe. They are 2-0 at home, where they have thrived over the years, and I expect their home-field dominance to continue Sunday night. New Orleans is 10-0 in its last 10 home games and 36-17 ATS in its last 53 home games. The Saints are 14-4 ATS following a loss of six points or less under coach Payton, bouncing back to win by an average score of 31.1 to 16.1. The Saints are also 11-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 27.0 ppg or more under Payton, defeating these teams by an average score of 35.2 to 24.0. The Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a losing record. Take the Saints.

6* World Series Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Royals +149

The Key: The Royals are showing value at this price with Shields on the mound. He's been at his best on the road where he has a 3.13 ERA. He was hit hard in a Game 1 loss but now has the opportunity to make the necessary adjustments. The Royals are 8-0 this season in Shields' road starts versus clubs with a winning record. They are 10-0 this season in his road starts versus impatient clubs that draw an average of three walks or less per game. They are also 9-0 this season in his road starts versus teams that strand 6.9 or less baserunners per game. Bumgarner hasn't been the same dominant force at home where he has a 3.88 ERA and where the Giants are 8-9 in his starts this season. The Giants are just 6-13 in Bumgarner's last 19 home starts when the total is set at 6.5 or lower. The Royals are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss and 5-0 in their last five after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Royals are also 7-2 in their last nine against the Giants.

7* AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Bengals +1

The Key: Cincinnati won the season's first meeting 23-16 in Baltimore clear back in Week 1. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play the revenge angle, but this is not the time or place to do that. In fact, you want to fade teams that are seeking revenge for a loss if they check in off two consecutive covers as a favorite. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Bengals have lost two of their last three, but both losses came on the road. Cincy has been unstoppable at home where it is 11-0-1 in its last 12 regular season games. Take Cincinnati.

6* Sunday NFL Early Annihilator on Jets -3

The Key: This is a letdown spot for Buffalo following last week's thrilling victory over Minnesota where Kyle Orton connected with Sammy Watkins with one second remaining. It will be tough for the Bills to recover from that emotionally draining win, especially without running backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. The Jets have had three extra days to gear up for this one after playing the Thursday game last week. With the extra time, I expect the New York defense to have a lot of success against a Buffalo team that is minus its two starting tailbacks. The Bills are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons following a stretch of two wins in three games. They are also 0-6 ATS the last three seasons as a road underdog of three points or less. The home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings, winning these by 17.3 points on average. New York is 12-4 in its last 16 in the series at home, including 4-0 in its last 4. These four wins have come by an average of 15.5 points. Lay the points.

7* NCAAF Bailout on Hawaii +3

The Key: This is a letdown spot for Nevada as it makes the long trip to Hawaii following a huge upset win at BYU. Not only is this a bounce-back spot for the Warriors following a loss at San Diego State, but it is a revenge spot following three consecutive double-digit defeats to the Wolf Pack. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six following a loss while the Wolf Pack are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a win. The Warriors have been a terrific investment at home where they are on a 5-0 ATS run. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the points.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Washington +3.5

The Key: Expect a letdown from Arizona State following a big blowout win over Stanford. ASU has had its way with Washington in recent years, which means the Huskies will be lacking no motivation. It also means the Sun Devils will be susceptible - their tendency will be to look ahead to Utah. Washington is 3-1 at home, and the Sun Devils are a weak 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Huskies are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Take the points.

7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year on Giants -124

The Key: I'm not hesitating to get behind the proven track record of Vogelsong in this one. The Giants are 6-0 in his six career playoff starts, during which he's posted a 2.16 ERA. Omar Infante is the only KC regular with experience against Vogelsong and that bodes well for the Giants. While Vogelsong has been here and done this, this is the biggest game Vargas has ever pitched, and I expect him to give in to the pressure. The Giants just saw Vargas in August so they will have a much better understanding of his stuff. Vargas has had nine days between starts and typically hasn't performed well with extra rest, going 5-10 with a 4.59 ERA in 26 career starts with six or more days rest. The Royals are 2-5 in Vargas' last seven road starts. The Giants are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus a left-handed starter. Take San Francisco.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma State pk

The Key: Motivated by last week's brutally embarrassing 42-9 loss at TCU, and further fueled by last season's 30-21 defeat at West Virginia, Oklahoma State will take care of business Saturday. The Cowboys are an impressive 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games. They are 17-3 ATS at home since 1992 following a loss of 21 points or more. They have bounced back to win by an average score of 33.5 to 24.1 in this spot. The Mountaineers are in a letdown spot following a huge win over Baylor. You want to fade road teams in weeks 5-9 that check in off an upset win at home. Doing so has produced a 20-2 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the Cowboys.

6* World Series Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Giants -120

The Key: I like the Giants to bounce back at home where they are 4-0 in their last four playoff games and 6-0 in their last six World Series games. Guthrie has pitched well over his last four starts, but he has a 6.14 ERA in three career starts against the Giants. Plus, I trust the more accomplished Hudson a lot more in this big spot. Hudson has finished in the Top 6 in the Cy Young voting four times in his career and has a strong 3.42 ERA in 12 career postseason appearances. Taking Hudson at home has been a fantastic investment. His clubs are 19-5 in his home starts the last two seasons. Take San Francisco.