Sports Picks & Predictions

7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-130) 

The Key: The Cubs are on fire right now.  They are 21-5 in their last 26 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 5-1 in Jose Quintana’s last 6 starts, and he’s clearly the better starter in this matchup with the Royals.  Kansas City is 4-23 in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Royals are 0-4 in Fillmeyer’s last four starts.  Kansas City is 0-7 in its last seven interleague home games.  The Royals are 13-42 in their last 55 games overall.  The Cubs are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  Take Chicago on the Run Line. 

7* Interleague Game of the Month on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+100) 

The Key: The Chicago Cubs should have no problem winning by at least 2 runs tonight over the lowly Kansas City Royals.  The Royals have now lost 5 straight with 4 of those coming by at least 2 runs to drop to 34-78 on the season.  The Cubs are in the middle of a pennant race at 65-47 this season.  Mike Montgomery is 3-3 with a 3.36 ERA in 12 starts this year.  Brad Keller is 3-3 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 11 starts for the Royals.  Montgomery is 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA and 0.59 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Kansas City.  The Royals are 1-15 in home games vs. good teams who are outscoring their opponents by 0.5 RPG or more this season.  They are losing by 4.0 RPG on average in this situation.  Take Chicago on the Run Line. 

7* AL West Game of the Month on Seattle Mariners -113 

The Key: The Seattle Mariners will be hungry for a win tonight after going 1-5 in their last 6 games overall.  They now get to face the 49-64 Rangers and should take care of business in Game 1 tonight.  Wade LeBlanc is 6-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 17 starts for the Mariners this year.  Martin Perez is one of the worst starters in the league.  He is 2-4 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in 9 starts this year, including 1-1 with a 7.53 ERA and 2.12 WHIP in 4 home starts.  LeBlanc is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in one lifetime start against the Rangers.  LeBlanc is 9-0 against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.  Texas is 5-20 in home games against division opponents this season.  The Rangers are 19-45 in their last 64 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in Texas.  Take Seattle.

7* Yankees/Red Sox ESPN *BAILOUT* on OVER 9 

The Key: Expect plenty of runs scored tonight between the Red Sox and Yankees to push this total OVER the 9 number.  Masahiro Tanaka has yielded 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 19 base runners in 10 1/3 innings in 2 starts against the Red Sox this season.  David Price has yielded 12 earned runs and 6 homers in 4 1/3 innings in 2 starts against the Yankees this season.  Both starters have been shelled against their respective opponents in 2018, and that should continue again here tonight.  Take the OVER. 

7* MLB Run Line Game of the Year on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-115) 

The Key: The Seattle Mariners have now lost 4 straight and would be out of the playoffs if the season ended today.  They need to get back on track in a hurry.  Ace James Paxton is just the man for the job.  He’s 5-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 10 home starts this year.  He’ll be opposed by Marco Estrada, who is 2-4 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 9 road starts.  Estrada is 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in his last 3 starts as well.  Paxton pitched a no-hitter on May 8th against the Blue Jays this season in a 5-0 victory, so he has their number as well.  The Blue Jays are 8-25 in their last 33 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Toronto is 0-4 in Estrada’s last 4 road starts.  Seattle is 21-6 in its last 27 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Blue Jays are 8-27 in their last 35 Saturday road games.  Take Seattle on the Run Line. 

7* Yankees/Red Sox AL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 9 

The Key: The Red Sox and Yankees combined for 22 runs yesterday.  While they may not reach that milestone today, I still believe there’s value with the over 9, especially at a plus-price.  Luis Severino has been roughed up in recent starts.  He is 0-2 with a 10.05 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in his last 3 starts, far from the Cy Young contender he was prior to them.  And those starts have come against the Royals, Rays and Indians, far from the potent lineup he’ll see tonight in Boston.  Rick Porcello is also faltering.  He is 2-1 with a 7.90 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Porcello sports a 5.10 ERA in 10 home starts this year. The OVER is 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in Porcello’s last seven home starts, and 11-3-1 in his last 15 stats overall.  The OVER is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings, including 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.  Take the OVER.

7* NL East Game of the Year on Atlanta Braves -148 

The Key: The Braves find themselves in a battle with the Phillies for 1st place in the NL East.  They should take down the Mets without issue today.  The Mets are in sell mode and finding it hard to be hungry the rest of the way.  No question the Braves have the edge on the mound tonight.  Mike Foltynewicz is 7-7 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 20 starts this year.  He’ll be opposed by Jason Vargas, who is 2-6 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 10 starts.  Vargas is 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts vs. Atlanta.  The Mets are 0-10 as a home dog of +125 to +175 this season.  Take Atlanta. 

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland A’s -133 

The Key: The Oakland A’s have been on a tear for the last month-plus.  They are 29-10 in their last 39 games overall and have a legitimate shot to make the postseason now.  They should handle the Blue Jays, who are 7-24 in their last 31 games against a left-handed starter, including 2-14 in their last 16 road games against a southpaw.  Sean Manaea is 9-7 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 22 starts this year.  He’ll be opposed by Marcus Stroman, who is 4-7 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 14 starts.  Stroman is 0-0 with an 8.68 ERA in his last two starts against the A’s, yielding 9 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings.  The A’s are 4-0 in Manaea’s last 4 home starts.  The A’s are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.  Manaea is 9-0 in day games this season.  Take Oakland. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Angels -130 

The Key: The Angels have a big edge on the mound tonight over the Tampa Bay Rays.  Tyler Skaggs is 8-6 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 19 starts this year, including 5-2 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 10 road starts.  The Rays have lost 3 in a row to the Orioles coming in amidst a bunch of trade rumors.  And Ryan Stanek is one of those Rays’ starters that only goes a few innings before getting pulled.  I just don’t trust the philosophy, and the Rays’ combination of pitchers they use won’t be anywhere near as good as Skaggs.  Skaggs faced the Rays earlier this season on May 17 and gave up just one run in 6 innings.  The Angels are 12-1 as road favorites of -125 to -175 this season.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland A’s -137 

The Key: The Oakland A’s will be hungry for a victory tonight after getting swept by the Rockies in Colorado over the weekend.  The A’s are still 27-10 in their last 37 games overall and surging.  They are 41-16 in their last 57 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Blue Jays were sellers at the deadline and can’t be trusted.  Toronto is 1-7 in Estrada’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The A’s are 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Edwin Jackson sports a 3.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 6 starts this year for the A’s.  Marco Estrada is 2-3 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 8 road starts.  Estrada has never beaten the A’s, going 0-3 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against them.  Take Oakland. 

7* Cubs/Cardinals ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -122 

The Key: This is the avoid the sweep game for the Chicago Cubs after losing the first 2 games of this series to the rival St. Louis Cardinals.  They’ll come in hungry for a victory tonight on ESPN.  Kyle Hendricks is 3-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 13 lifetime starts against St. Louis, and his teams are 9-4 in those matchups.  John Gant is just a fill-in starter for the Cardinals.  He is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 4 home starts this year.  The Cubs are 60-29 in their last 89 games following a loss.  Chicago is 5-1 in its last 6 during Game 3 of a series.  The Cardinals are 1-7 in their last 8 games following a win.  St. Louis is 1-4 in Gant’s last 5 home starts.  The Cubs are 6-0 in Hendricks’ last 6 starts against the Cardinals.  Take Chicago. 

7* NL East Game of the Month on Washington Nationals -151 

The Key: Few starters own a team like Gio Gonzalez owns the Marlins.  The left-hander is 10-3 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 17 lifetime starts against Miami.  Trevor Richards is 3-5 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 14 starts for the Marlins this year.  One of those came against the Nationals on July 8th earlier this month.  Richards yielded 11 base runners in 3 2/3 innings in that contest, including 7 walks.  Washington is 20-5 in road games vs. teams who are outscored by 1 RPG or more over the last 2 seasons.  The Nationals are 11-1 in road games after allowing 3 runs or less in 2 straight games this season.  The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take Washington. 

7* NL West Game of the Month on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-110) 

The Key: Games are much more important to the Diamondbacks these days than the Padres.  The Diamondbacks are right in the NL West race, while the Padres are in last place in their division by a mile.  I certainly like the pitching matchup in Arizona’s favor tonight.  Zack Greinke is 11-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 21 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Greinke is 10-2 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 20 lifetime starts vs. San Diego as well.  Luis Perdomo is 1-5 with a 6.99 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 8 starts for the Padres, including 0-4 with a shocking 11.29 ERA and 2.46 WHIP in 4 home starts.  Perdomo is 3-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts vs. Arizona as well.  Greinke is 51-14 in his career as a favorite of -175 to -250, and his teams are winning by 2.1 RPG.  The Padres are 6-24 as home dogs of +100 or higher this season, losing by 3.0 RPG.  Take Arizona on the Run Line. 

7* Brewers/Giants National League *BAILOUT* on San Francisco -105 

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Giants tonight at basically even money against the Milwaukee Brewers.  It’s not or never for the Giants, who currently sit at 52-51 and need to start stringing wins together if they want to stay in the NL West race.  I like what I’ve seen from starters Dereck Rodriquez, who is 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA in 8 starts, 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA in 4 home starts, and 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Wade Miley has a 1.56 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 4 starts for the Brewers, but it’s a small sample size and this guy hasn’t been good for a long time.  He’s getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  The Giants are 6-0 in Rodriquez’s last 6 starts.  The Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 road games.  The Giants are 19-9 in their last 28 home games.  The Giants are 16-5 in their last 21 home meetings with the Brewers.  Take San Francisco. 

7* Diamondbacks/Cubs NL *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -107 

The Key: The Chicago Cubs will be hungry for a victory today over the Diamondbacks.  They have lost the first two games of this series to Arizona.  I like the price we are getting with the Cubs in Game 3 today with Jon Lester taking the ball.  Lester is 12-3 with a 3.14 ERA in 20 starts this year.  He’ll be opposed by Robbie Rays, who is 3-2 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 11 starts, including 0-1 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  The Cubs are 11-1 in Lester’s 12 starts vs. a team that steals 0.5 or fewer bases per game this season.  That’s big because he has a problem throwing over to first base.  The Cubs are 40-14 in Lester’s last 54 home starts.  Take Chicago.  

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Red Sox -141 

The Key: It’s hard not to like the Boston Red Sox at this price over the Baltimore Orioles.  The Red Sox have the best record in baseball at 71-31, while the Orioles have the worst at 28-73.  Not to mention, the Orioles just traded away their best player in Manny Machado to the Dodgers.  They have clearly thrown in the towel on the season already.  Drew Pomeranz hasn’t been great this year but he should be healthy now after making his last start on May 31st.  And he should have no problem shutting down this weak Orioles’ lineup.  Yefrey Ramirez is 0-3 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his 4 starts his year for the Orioles.  He faced the Red Sox on June 13th, giving up 3 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings for a 6.24 ERA while taking the loss in a 1-5 defeat.  The Red Sox are 13-1 in their last 14 meetings with the Orioles.  Take Boston. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-103) 

The Key: The Angles hung 14 runs on the Astros in victory Sunday.  They should hang another big number on the White Sox and Lucas Giolito, who is 6-8 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  The Angels have the clear edge on the mound behind Jaime Barria, who is 5-6 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  The Angels are 19-4 vs. teams who are outscored by one or more runs/game this season and winning by 2.6 RPG in this spot.  The White Sox are 15-40 in their last 55 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland Indians -156 

The Key: The Indians exploded for 16 runs yesterday and have now scored 25 runs the past two days in winning the first two games of this series with the Rangers.  They should cap off the sweep today and keep the bats hot against Yovani Gallardo and the Rangers.  Gallardo doesn’t even belong in the big leagues and only got called up because the Rangers are so far back in the standings.  Gallardo is 3-1 in spite of a 6.75 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 5 starts this year.  He’s opposed by Mike Clevinger, who is 7-5 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 19 starts this year, including 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 9 road starts.  Clevinger sports a 2.84 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts against Texas.  Gallardo is 1-1 with a. 4.91 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 2 lifetime stats vs. Cleveland.  The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 road games.  The Rangers are 0-5 in their last 5 home games.  Take Cleveland. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -150 

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers have some momentum as they’ve overtaken first place in the NL West after being left for dead a couple months ago.  The Dodgers are 38-17 in their last 55 games overall, including 18-6 in their last 24 road games, and 13-3 int heir last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  They have the edge on the mound tonight with Clayton Kershaw.  The Dodges are 61-19 in Kershaw’s last 80 starts.  Kershaw is 3-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 13 starts this year, 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 5 road starts, and 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Kershaw is 5-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 12 lifetime starts against the Brewers.  Chase Anderson is 3-3 with a 4.83 ERA in 10 home starts this year.  Anderson is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA in 9 lifetime starts against the Dodgers.  The Brewers are 0-7 in their last 7 games overall and are once again choking this season after having the NL Central lead for most of the year.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-119) 

The Key: The Indians have a big edge on the mound tonight with Trevor Bauer over Martin Perez.  Bauer is 8-6 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 20 starts this year with 175 strikeouts in 136 1/3 innings.  Bauer has never lost to the Rangers, going 1-0 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them.  Perez is 2-4 with a 7.67 ERA and 2.05 WHIP in 6 starts this year, including 1-1 with a 10.00 ERA and 2.33 WHIP in 2 home starts.  Perez has never beaten the Indians, going 0-2 with a 9.20 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them.  Take the Indians on the Run Line. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago Cubs -138 

The Key: The Cubs have taken over first place in the NL Central with a 54-38 record on the season.  They have recently gotten healthy and started to play some great baseball.  They are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall and should add another win Sunday thanks to their huge edge on the mound.  Jon Lester is 11-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 18 starts this season.  Lester is 2-1 with a 2.97 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. San Diego.  He’ll be opposed by Eric Lauer, who is 5-5 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 15 starts for the Padres.  The Cubs are 32-6 in Lester’s last 38 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 5-0 in Lester’s last 5 road starts.  The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 during Game 3 of a series.  San Diego is 6-20 in its last 26 games overall.  The Cubs are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.  Take Chicago. 

7* Diamondbacks/Braves NL *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -101 

The Key: The Atlanta Braves will be hungry for a victory today after going just 2-7 in their last 9 games overall, including a 2-1 loss to the Diamondbacks in Game 1 of this series Friday.  I like their chances with Sean Newcomb on the mound today.  Newcomb is 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 7 home starts this year.  While Zack Greinke has been awesome at home throughout his career, he has not been nearly as good on the road.  That is the case again in 2018 as Greinke is 5-4 with a 4.31 ERA in 9 road starts.  The Diamondbacks are 8-22 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Braves are 16-7 in the last 23 home meetings.  Take Atlanta. 

7* A’s/Giants Interleague *BAILOUT* on San Francisco -142 

The Key: The San Francisco Giants have a big edge on the mound tonight over the Oakland A’s despite what the numbers say.  Madison Bumgarner is the real deal and has shown no ill-effects of injury.  The left-hander is 2-3 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 7 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 4 home starts.  Edwin Jackson does have a 2.45 ERA, but that has come in just 3 starts.  There’s a reason this guy has bounced around the league so often throughout his career.  It’s only a matter of time before he comes back down to reality this season.  The A’s are 23-57 in their last 80 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Giants are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  The Giants are 17-6 in their last 23 home meetings with the A’s.  Take San Francisco. 

7* American League Game of the Month on Tampa Bay Rays -115 

The Key: Blake Snell might be the single most underrated starter in baseball.  He has gone 12-4 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  He has shut down the likes of the Astros and Yankees on multiple occasions this year, so he’s clearly the real deal.  He’s much better than Kyle Gibson, who is 1-4 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 9 home starts this year, and 1-1 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Snell yielded just one earned run and 5 base runners in 7 innings in a 10-1 victory in his lone start against Minnesota this season.  Gibson is 1-5 with a 6.81 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay.  The Twins are 0-9 when revenging a same season 3-game sweep at the hands of their opponents over the last 3 seasons.  Minnesota is 0-7 in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rays are 35-16 in the last 51 meetings, including 20-7 in the last 27 meetings in Minnesota.  Take Tampa Bay. 

7* MLB Total of the Week on Yankees/Orioles OVER 9.5 

The Key: For starters, this has been an OVER series.  The OVER is 24-4 in the last 28 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Baltimore.  I’m surprise at how low this 9.5 total is tonight when it should be double-digits minimum.  Sonny Gray sports a 5.85 ERA in 17 starts this year and a 12.27 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Gray also sports a 4.64 ERA in 8 lifetime starts vs. Baltimore.  Dylan Bundy is 2-1 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Bundy is 2-3 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. New York.  Take the OVER. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Washington Nationals -107 

The Key: The Washington Nationals have the edge on the mound tonight over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Jeremy Hellickson is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 7 road starts.  Hellickson is also 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts vs. Pittsburgh.  Joe Musgrove is 2-3 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 5 home starts for the Pirates.  He’s also 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his last 3 outings overall.  Musgrove is 1-9 at home with a total of 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.  The Nationals are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. NL Central teams.  Washington is 4-0 in Hellickson’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 0-7 in their last 7 Tuesday games.  Pittsburgh is 1-4 in Musgrove’s last 5 starts.  Take Washington. 

7* Interleague Game of the Week on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+102) 

The Key: The Cleveland Indians will be hungry for a victory after losing two straight over the weekend.  They should get right back on track in a big way Monday night against the lowly Reds.  They have a huge edge on the mound with Mike Clevinger, who is 7-3 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 17 starts this year.  Anthony Desclafini is 3-1 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in 6 starts for the Reds.  He has yielded 9 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last 2 starts against the White Sox and Brewers.  The Indians should touch him up just as they did the last time they faced him. Desclafini gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings of a 4-9 loss.  The Reds are 15-43 in their last 58 interleague road games.  The Indians are 40-11 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Cleveland is 7-1 in Clevinger’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line. 

7* NL Central Game of the Year on Chicago Cubs -146 

The Key: The Cubs were swept in a 4-game series by the Reds for the first time since 1983 just a few weeks ago.  They have a chance to win this series with a victory Sunday to exact some form of revenge, and I look for them to take advantage.  They have a huge edge on the mound in this one with Jon Lester over Luis Castillo.  Lester is 11-2 with a 2.25 ERA in 17 starts this year, including 5-1 with a 1.49 ERA in 8 home starts.  Castillo is 5-8 with a 5.33 ERA in 18 starts, including 2-5 with a 6.70 ERA in 10 road starts.  Lester has won each of his last 2 starts against the Reds while yielding just 1 earned run in 11 innings and striking out 15.  The Cubs are 10-0 in Lester’s 10 starts vs. teams averaging 0.35 or less SB’s/game this season.  The Cubs are 31-6 in Lester’s last 37 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cubs are 39-13 in Lester’s last 52 home starts.  Take Chicago. 

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-124) 

The Key: The Red Sox (60-29) should make easy work of the Kansas City Royals (25-62) once again today.  They jumped out to a 8-0 lead yesterday and cruised to a 10-5 victory.  Expect more of the same Saturday.  David Price is 4-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts vs. Kansas City.  The Royals are 2-16 in home games off 3 or more consecutive losses this season.  They are losing by 2.6 RPG in this spot.  Take Boston on the Run Line. 

7* AL Game of the Week on Detroit Tigers -105 

The Key: The Detroit Tigers have a big edge on the mound in this matchup with the Texas Ranges.  Jordan Zimmerman is 3-0 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 10 starts this year.  Zimmerman is 1-0 with a. 3.09 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 4 home starts, and 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in his last 3 starts anywhere.  Zimmerman sports a 3.38 ERA lifetime vs. the Rangers.  Bartolo Colon is 5-5 with a 4.93 ERA in 15 starts for Texas this year.  Colon is 9-11 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 29 lifetime starts vs. Detroit.  Take Detroit. 

7* Cardinals/Giants National League *BAILOUT* on San Francisco -129 

The Key: The Giants will be hungry for a victory after getting swept in Colorado last series.  They have a huge 10-game homestand before the All-Star Break that could have them chasing down the Diamondbacks in the NL West.  It starts with Game 1 of this series with the Cardinals tonight.  I like their chances of getting a victory with Johnny Cueto on the mound.  He has been dominant in his 5 starts when healthy this season, going 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.69 WHIP.  Cueto is 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Cardinals.  Luke Weaver is 4-7 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 17 starts for the Cardinals.  He is also 4-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 9 road starts, and 1-1 with an 8.21 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Weaver has allowed 8 runs in 8 2/3 innings in his 2 lifetime starts against the Giants.  The Giants are 7-1 in Cueto’s last 8 starts.  Take San Francisco.

7* Angels/Mariners AL West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -107 

The Key: The Seattle Mariners are perhaps the most underrated team in baseball.  They are 55-31 on the season and just a half-game back of the Astros in the AL West.  They have profited backers +22.2 units already this season.  We are getting them at a great price, as usual, today at basically even money against the Angels.  The Mariners are 8-0 in their last 8 games overall, while the Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 games.  Mike Leake is 8-4 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 17 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his last two starts.  Leake is 3-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles.  The Angels are 3-16 vs. teams who win 62% or more of their games this season.  Los Angels is 0-8 in its last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning percentage of greater than 60%.  The Mariners are 9-1 in Leake’s last 10 starts.  Take Seattle. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-114) 

The Key: The Cleveland Indians have now scored a combined 24 runs the past two days.  Look for their bats to stay red hot against the Kansas City Royals tonight.  Danny Duffy is 4-7 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 17 starts for the Royals, including 0-3 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 6 home starts.  Duffy is 2-8 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 13 lifetimes starts vs. Cleveland.  He has yielded 12 earned runs in 9 innings in his 2 starts against the Indians this season.  Shane Bieber has been lights out for the Indians.  He has made four starts for them this season, and his last three have resulted in a 3-0 record and 0.96 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 18 innings.  The Indians are 47-16 in their last 63 vs. AL Central.  Cleveland is 4-0 in Bieber’s 4 starts this year.  The Royals are 11-40 in their last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Kansas City is 1-6 in Duffy’s last 7 home starts.  The Royals are 0-7 in Duffy’s last 7 starts vs. Indians.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-150) 

The Key: The Indians will win by at least 2 runs over the Kansas City Royals tonight thanks to their huge edge on the mound.  The Indians just scored 15 runs yesterday against the A’s and should stay hot at the plate against Jake Junis tonight.  Junis is 5-9 with a 4.67 ERA in 16 starts this year, including 0-3 with a 7.72 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Junis gave up 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 2-6 loss to the Indians in his only start against them this year.  Corey Kluber is 11-4 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 17 starts for the Indians.  He is 10-6 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 21 lifetime starts vs. Kansas City.  Kluber is 4-0 with a 0.82 ERA in his last 5 starts against the Royals, yielding just 3 earned runs in 32 2/3 innings.  The Indians are 6-0 in Kluber’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Royals are 0-6 in Junis’ last 6 starts.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line. 

7* MLB Dog of the Week on Los Angeles Angels +114 

The Key: I’ve faded the Orioles with success a lot lately, including the last 3 days.  I’m not about to stop now, and I can’t believe the Orioles are favored over the Angels today.  Baltimore has not dropped 8 straight games coming in to fall to 23-59 on the season.  This team has clearly packed it in already.  The Angels are still fighting to try to get back in the playoff race after a poor June.  The Angels are 9-1 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than 40%.  The Orioles are 10-45 in their last 55 vs. a team with a winning record.  Baltimore is 1-6 in Gausman’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Angles are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.  Finally, the Orioles are 0-15 vs. AL West opponents this season.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Angels -141 

The Key: If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.  We’ve been fading the Orioles with regularity of late, including each of the last two days with success.  The Orioles are just 23-58 on the season and have lost 7 straight coming in.  The Angles have a big edge on the mound this afternoon.  Tyler Skaggs is 6-5 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 15 starts this year, including 5-2 with a 2.14 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 9 road starts.  He’s 2-1 with a 0.86 ERA in his last 3 starts.  In his lone lifetime start against the Orioles, Skaggs pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings without allowing a single hit.  Andrew Cashner has yet to win at home this season, going 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 8 home starts for the Orioles.  He is 2-8 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 15 starts this year overall.  Cashner sports a 4.85 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles.  The Orioles are 0-14 vs. AL West opponents this season.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* American League Game of the Week on Los Angeles Angels -138 

The Key: We’ll keep fading the rotten Baltimore Orioles just as we did yesterday with success.  The Orioles are 23-57 on the season and have lost 6 straight coming in.  After falling back to .500 with 6 straight losses of their own, the Angels have a great chance to get back on track in this series, starting with Game 1 tonight.  Felix Pena has been solid in his two starts this season with a 4.00 ERA.  David Hess is 2-4 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 8 starts this year for the Orioles, including 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA and 2.17 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Baltimore is 0-13 vs. AL West opponents this season.  The Orioles are 0-5 in Hess’ last 5 starts.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle Mariners -140 

The Key: The Orioles are a mess.  They are just 23-56 on the season and have lost 5 straight coming in.  The Mariners have now won 3 in a row and are 50-31 on the season.  Mike Leake is 8-4 with a 4.11 ERA in 16 starts this year, 5-1 with a 3.89 ERA in 7 road starts, and 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Jimmy Yacabonis makes his major league debut for the Orioles today.  Baltimore is 0-12 vs. AL West opponents this season.  The Orioles are 2-15 as a home dog of +100 or higher this season.  The Mariners are 8-1 in Leake’s last 9 starts.  Seattle is 5-0 in Leake’s last 5 road starts.  The Orioles are 4-22 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Seattle. 

7* MLB Total of the Week on Indians/Cardinals UNDER 8.5 

The Key: Two of the better young starters in baseball go head-to-head Wednesday night in this matchup between the Indians and Cardinals.  Jack Flaherty is 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He is 1-0 with a 0.98 ERA and 0.66 WHIP in his last 3 starts with 26 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings while yielding just 2 earned runs.  Shane Bieber is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings across 3 starts for the Indians this season.  This has the makings of a pitcher’s duel tonight.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Cardinals last 10 interleague home games.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Flaherty’s last 11 starts.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.  Take the UNDER. 

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle Mariners -135

The Key: This is a pretty generous price for the Seattle Mariners (48-31) over the Baltimore Orioles (23-54) tonight.  The Mariners have the clear edge on the mound as they send ace James Paxton to the hill.  Paxton is 6-2 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 16 starts this year with 124 strikeouts in 96 2/3 innings.  Kevin Gausman is 3-6 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 15 starts for the Orioles.  Seattle is 10-1 off 6 or more consecutive road games this season.  Baltimore is 1-12 after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span this season.  The Orioles are 0-10 vs. AL West teams this season.  Baltimore is 0-7 in Gausman’s last 7 starts.  Take Seattle. 

7* Interleague Game of the Week on Cleveland Indians -128 

The Key: The Cleveland Indians have reeled off 7 straight victories heading into this series with the Cardinals.  They are hitting the cover off the ball right now as they have scored double-digit runs in 3 of their last 4, and 6 or more in 5 of their last 6.  Mike Clevinger remains one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 6-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 15 starts this season, 3-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 7 road starts, and 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last 3 starts.  John Gant is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA in 3 starts for the Cardinals this season.  St. Louis is 0-7 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better over the last 3 seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-7 off an upset win over a division opponent as an underdog this season.  St. Louis is 0-5 in Gant’s last 5 starts.  The Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 games overall.  These four trends add up to a 26-0 angle backing the Indians.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Phillies/Nationals NL East Game of the Year on Washington -113 

The Key: The Washington Nationals aren’t about to get swept at home by the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. They will win Game 3 on ESPN.  Nick Pivetta is 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 6 road starts this year.  Pivetta has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-2 with an 11.81 ERA and 2.44 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them.  He has yielded 14 earned runs, 6 homers and 26 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in those 3 starts.  Take Washington. 

7* Blue Jays/Angels American League *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -130 

The Key: The Los Angeles Angels should make easy work of the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.  Jaime Barria has been awesome this season at 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in nine starts.  Marcus Stroman is still in search of his first victory for the Blue Jays.  He is 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in seven starts.  The Blue Jays are 1-10 in their last 11 road games.  The Angels are 7-1 in their last 8 home games.  The Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland A’s -123 (Game 2)

The Key: The Oakland A’s have won 4 straight while scoring a combined 28 runs in the process.  They should stay hot at the plate tonight against Chicago’s Lucas Giolito, who has been one of the worst starters in the league this season.  Giolito is 4-7 with a 7.19 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 14 starts this year, including 1-4 with an 11.05 ERA and 2.012 WHIP in 7 home starts.  Chris Bassitt sports a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through his 2 starts this season.  The White Sox are 2-16 off 3 consecutive games against a division opponent this season.  The A’s are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  The White Sox are 1-8 in Giolito’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Chicago is 1-6 in Giolito’s last 7 home starts.  The A’s are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.  Take Oakland. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-130) 

The Key: The Indians have a big edge on the mound today with Corey Kluber over Reynaldo Lopez.  Kluber is 10-3 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 15 starts this year.  The Indians have gone 7-1 in Kluber’s last 8 starts against the White Sox, during which he has compiled a 2.05 ERA while yielding only 12 earned runs in 52 2/3 innings.  Reynaldo Lopez was shelled for 7 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in his last start against the Indians on May 30th.  The White Sox are 10-42 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Indians are 23-5 in Kluber’s last 28 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Indians will win by multiple runs Wednesday.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line. 

7* NL Central Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Pirates -112 

The Key: It’s important that the Pittsburgh Pirates sweep this series with the Milwaukee Brewers.  They currently are 6 games behind the Brewers in the race for 1st place in the NL Central.  They won 1-0 yesterday in Game 1 and should take Game 2 tonight as well.  Jameson Taillon is having a fine season at 4-5 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 14 starts, including 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Taillon sports a 3.47 ERA in 7 lifetime starts vs. Milwaukee.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last 4 starts against the Brewers.  Freddy Peralta makes just his 3rd start of the season for the Brewers tonight.  The Pirates are 25-11 in home games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.  The Pirates are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings and 6-2 in the last 8 home meetings.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Diamondbacks/Angels ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -111 

The Key: The Los Angeles Angels are hungry for a victory after losing 6 of their last 7 games coming in.  All were on the road, and now they return home from a 9-game road stand.  The Angels should fare much better at home in Game 1 of this series with the Diamondbacks.  Jaime Barria has been great this season at 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 8 starts.  He has been even better at home at 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 4 starts.  Zack Greinke has been great at home but sub-par on the road throughout his career.  That is the case again in 2018 as Greinke is 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 6 road starts this year.  Greinke is 3-5 with a 4.00 ERA in 11 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles.  The Angels are 13-5 in their last 18 interleague home games.  The Diamondbacks are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Arizona is 4-14 in its last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Philadelphia Phillies -107 

The Key: The Philadelphia Phillies have a big edge on the mound today with Aaron Nola over Chase Anderson of the Brewers.  Nola is 8-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 14 starts this year.  He has never lost to the Brewers, going 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against them.  Anderson is 5-5 with a 4.13 ERA in 13 starts this year, but 3-2 with a 5.06 ERA in 7 home starts.  Anderson is also 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against the Phillies.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Cubs/Cardinals NL Central *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Louis +109 

The Key: After getting embarrassed 5-13 by the Cubs yesterday, the Cardinals should come back hungry for a victory against their rivals tonight.  Carlos Martinez has been very sharp this season at 3-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 10 starts.  He has been awesome at home at 1-1 with a 1.84 ERA in 6 starts.  Kyle Hendricks is 4-6 with a 3.48 ERA in 13 starts this year.  Hendricks has leaked oil on the road, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 5 starts.  Hendricks is 1-9 off a win this season.  The Cardinals are 4-0 in Martinez’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 4-1 in Martinez’s last 5 starts against Chicago.  Take St. Louis. 

7* AL Central Game of the Month on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-108) 

The Key: The Indians should be able to win by multiple runs over the Twins today.  Corey Kluber gets the ball looking to build on a terrific season already.  He is 10-2 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 14 starts, including 6-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 7 home starts.  Kyle Gibson is having a decent season but is just 1-4 in 13 starts.  He is 2-6 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 14 lifetime starts vs. Cleveland.  Kluber has really shut down the Twins in recent starts against them.  He is 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA in his last 3 starts against Minnesota, yielding just 1 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings with 29 strikeouts.  The Twins are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.  The Indians are 48-16 in their last 64 vs. a team with a losing record.  Cleveland is 46-17 in Kluber’s last 63 starts.  Take Cleveland. 

7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona Diamondbacks -128 

The Key: The Diamondbacks are on fire at the plate right now.  They have scored 8 or more runs in 5 of hitter last 6 games coming in.  They should feast on the Mets’ Jason Vargas, who is 2-4 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 7 starts, and 1-2 with a 10.34 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in 4 road starts.  Vargas is also 2-2 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Arizona.  Matt Koch has been solid for the Diamondbacks at 4-3 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 10 starts this year.  The Mets are 1-10 after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span this season.  Take Arizona. 

7* AL Central Game of the Month on Detroit Tigers -102 

The Key: The Detroit Tigers got a much-needed day off yesterday and should be rejuvenated.  It probably felt like a vacation after playing 18 games in 17 days prior and going 10-8 in that tough stretch.  I really like the attitude of this team because almost everyone counted them out, but they are still right in the thick of the AL Central race.  Blaine Hardy has been solid in 5 starts this year, going 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, including 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 3 home starts.  Jake Odorizzi is 0-1 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his last 3 starts for the Twins.  The Tigers are 21-16 (+11.4 units) at home this season.  The Twins are 12-18 (-5.3 units) on the road.  The Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 games following an off day.  The Twins are 1-7 in their last 8 games following an off day.  Minnesota is 0-6 in Odorizzi’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.  Take Detroit. 

7* MLB Total of the Week on Red Sox/Orioles OVER 8.5 

The Key: Both Steven Wright and Dylan Bundy are in line to get rocked tonight.  Wright is 2-2 with a 7.17 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Baltimore.  Bundy is 3-6 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts vs. Boston.  The OVER is 8-1-2 in Red Sox last 11 Monday games.  The OVER is 9-2 in Lundy’s last 11 starts when working on 4 days of rest.  Take the OVER. 

7* American League Game of the Month on Minnesota Twins -111 

The Key: The Minnesota Twins should be hungry for a victory here Sunday.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the Angels and will be looking to avoid the sweep.  Fernando Romero is the better starter in this matchup.  He is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA in 7 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 3 home starts.  Nick Tropeano is 3-3 with a 4.35 ERA in 9 starts for the Angels.  Romero faced the Angels on May 13th and yielded just one run in 5 innings for a 1.80 ERA.  He will shut them down today as the Twins get a win to avoid the sweep.  Take Minnesota. 

7* AL Central Game of the Week on Detroit Tigers +165 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Tigers at home today.  Mike Fiers has held his own this season at 5-3 with a 4.33 ERA in 11 starts.  He is 3-1 with a 3.97 ERA in 6 home starts this year and has gone 7-4 against the money line to net backers +7.0 units of profit on the season.  Fiers is also 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. Cleveland.  These are numbers of a starter who shouldn’t be this big of a home underdog today.  Mike Clevinger is 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Cleveland is only 6-11 (-10.6 units) as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  Detroit is 10-5 (+11.8 units) as a home underdog of +125 or more this season.  Take Detroit. 

7* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 216 

The Key: As a series goes on, games tend to be lower and lower scoring.  That has been the case in this series as well as each game has been lower scoring than the next.  The Cavs and Warriors combined for 212 points in Game 3 and now we’re seeing a total of 216, so I think there’s value with the UNDER.  Both teams know what each other is trying to do, which makes scoring at a premium.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Warriors last 13 games overall.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Cavaliers last 16 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Seattle Mariners -113 

The Key: The Mariners have gone 6-1 in their last 7 games to improve to 39-23 on the season.  The Rays have gone 0-7 in their last 7 games to fall to 28-33.  Now Tampa Bay will continue deploying its strategy to start relievers, which isn’t working.  Wilmer Font will get his first start this season for the Rays.  Font is 0-2 with a 9.78 ERA on the season for Tampa.  Marco Gonzalez has been on fire at 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA in his last 3 starts, and he’s now 6-3 with a 2.97 ERA in 12 starts this year.  Gonzalez pitched 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball in a 3-1 win over the Rays on June 2nd in his only lifetime start against them.  Tampa Bay is 2-15 after scoring 4 runs or less in 6 straight games over the last 3 seasons.  Take Seattle. 

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+120) 

The Key: Left-hander Jalen Beeks will make his major league debut for the Red Sox at Fenway Park tonight.  This guy isn’t getting the love that he deserves after what he’s done in the minors.  Beeks is 3-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 10 starts for Triple-A Pawtucket this season.  He has struck out 80 batters and walked 14 in 56 1/3 innings with a .197 batting average against.  Matt Boyd is 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA and 2.33 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Boston.  The Red Sox are 12-1 vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game this season, and they’re winning in this spot by 4.1 RPG.  Take Boston on the Run Line. 

7* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 

The Key: It’s do or die for the Cavaliers tonight.  I like backing teams with their backs against the wall because you know what kind of effort you are going to get from them.  While the Cavs will be at 110% tonight, the Warriors could relax after protecting home court with their 2-0 series lead.  And the Cavs will be happy to return home where they are 8-0 SU in their last 8 playoff games.  Take Cleveland. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Colorado Rockies -125 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Colorado Rockies as small road favorites over the Cincinnati Reds, who are just 21-40 this season, including 9-20 at home.  Sal Romano is 3-6 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the Reds, including 1-2 with a 9.39 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Romano is also 1-1 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Colorado.  Jon Gray has never lost to the Reds, going 3-0 with a 4.58 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against them.  Take Colorado. 

7* Mariners/Astros AL West *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -117 

The Key: It’s rare you will get the chance to back the defending champion Astros at this kind of price at home this season.  We’ll take advantage tonight.  The Astros want to send the Mariners a message that they won’t be losing the AL West this season as they currently trail the M’s by one game.  Dallas Keuchel sports a 3.65 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 12 starts this year.  Keuchel is 8-6 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 15 lifetime starts vs. Seattle.  The left-hander has yielded 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last 6 starts against the Mariners while going 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA in the process.  The Astros are 37-16 in Keuchel’s last 53 home starts.  The Astros are 26-10 in the last 36 meetings, including 5-1 in Keuchel’s last 6 home starts vs. Seattle.  Take Houston. 

7* Diamondbacks/Giants NL West *BAILOUT* on Arizona +102 

The Key: The Arizona Diamondbacks have gotten back on track with a 5-1 run over their last 6 games.  Their offense has come to life by scoring a total of 42 runs in those 6 games, or an average of 7 per game. They should stay hot against Derek Holland, who sports a 4.59 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in his career.  Holland is 3-6 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 11 starts this year.  Zack Godley hasn’t been as sharp as last year, but he is still solid.  And Godley is 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco.  Arizona is 12-2 vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game this season.  The Diamondbacks are 11-5 as a dog of +100 to +150 this season.  Godley is 11-1 as a dog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.  Wrong team favored in this game.  Take Arizona. 

7* Cavs/Warriors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +11.5 

The Key: The Warriors clearly should not be double-digit favorites against the Cavs in Game 2 tonight.  The Cavs should have beaten them in Game 1 and were the better team until overtime.  And with the injuries to the Warriors’ Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala, they aren’t the juggernaut that they are perceived to be.  The Cavs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference teams.  The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when playing on 2 days rest.  Take Cleveland. 

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Washington Nationals -110 

The Key: The Washington Nationals have a big edge on the mound today with Jeremy Hellickson over Animal Sanchez.  Hellickson is 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 8 starts this season.  Sanchez has only made 3 starts with a 3.60 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.  But he hasn’t been good for years and his numbers will only get worse as the season goes on.  Hellickson is 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Atlanta.  The Nationals are 14-3 in their last 17 road games.  Washington is 5-0 in Hellickson’s last 5 starts.  Take Washington. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on New York Mets -116 

The Key: The New York Mets will be hungry for a victory today after losing the first two games of this series to the Cubs.  They are favored for good reason today because they have a big edge on the mound.  Jacob DeGrom is 4-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 5 home starts.  DeGrom is 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Cubs, yielding just 4 earned runs in 21 innings.  Mike Montgomery will be making just his 2nd start for the Cubs this season and is no more than a spot starter who is used to the bullpen.  DeGrom is 17-4 at home when the money line is -100 to -150 in his career.  The Cubs are 3-8 in their last 11 road meetings with the Mets.  Take New York. 

7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Milwaukee Brewers -129 

The Key: The Brewers (36-21) are the vastly superior team over the White Sox (16-37) in this series.  And they have a big edge on the mound, which should warrant being a bigger favorite than they are tonight.  Chase Anderson has done his best work on the road this season with a 2.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across 4 starts.  Anderson sports a 1.69 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in one lifetime start vs. Chicago as well.  Hector Santiago is 1-2 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 5 starts this year, including 0-2 with a 10.61 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in 2 road starts.  He has allowed 5 homers in his last 2 starts.  The Brewers are 9-0 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.  Milwaukee is 6-1 in Anderson’s last 7 road starts.  The White Sox are 7-20 in Santiago’s last 27 starts, including 4-11 in its last 15 home starts.  Chicago is 0-9 in its last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Take Milwaukee. 

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on San Diego Padres -134 

The Key: The Padres have a big edge on the mound tonight with Jordan Lyles over Wei-Yin Chen.  Lyles is 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 4 starts this year, including 1-1 with a 0.73 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in 2 home starts.  Chen is 1-2 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 6 starts this year, including 0-2 with a 10.95 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in 3 road starts.  The Marlins are 13-30 in their last 43 road games and 0-4 in Chen’s last 4 road starts.  Take San Diego. 

7* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +13 

The Key: This Game 1 line has gotten out of control.  Too much has been made of the Warriors being massive favorites in this series.  I think it will be closer than most expect, starting with Game 1 tonight as the Cavs are ridiculous 13-point underdogs.  Kevin Love may or may not play, but it doesn’t matter as the Cavs were great without him and actually better defensively in winning their final two games against Boston.  Andre Iguodala is the best defender Golden State has against Lebron James, but he’s going to be out for Game 1.  James should be able to have his way against Golden State’s defense to keep this one closer than expected.  Take Cleveland. 

7* MLB Run Line Game of the Month on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-126) 

The Key: The Washington Nationals are 20-6 in their last 26 games.  They have won 7 of their last 8 and are up against the 17-38 Baltimore Orioles.  The Nationals will send ace Max Scherzer to the mound to shut down the Orioles, who have scored a total of 8 runs in their last 5 games.  Scherzer is 8-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 11 starts this year with 108 strikeouts in 71 2/3 innings.  He is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Orioles while yielding only 2 earned runs in 16 innings.  David Hess is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 3 starts this year for the Orioles.  Two of those starts have come against the light-hitting Rays.  He was rocked in his only tough start against the Red Sox for 5 runs and 3 homers in 4 2/3 innings.  The Nationals should be able to hang a big number on him as well.  The Nationals are 12-1 in their last 13 road games.  Take Washington on the Run Line. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Colorado Rockies -137 

The Key: The San Francisco Giants are just 11-18 on the road this season and scoring 3.2 RPG on the highway.  Things won’t get any easier for them tonight against Colorado’s Kyle Freeland, who is 4-5 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 10 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 3 home starts.  Freeland is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco.  Jeff Samardzija has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the past few seasons.  He is 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 7 starts this year.  Samardzija gave up 8 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start at Colorado last season.  The Giants are 37-73 in all road games over the last 2 seasons, including 13-36 against division opponents.  San Francisco is 1-6 in Samardzija’s last 7 road starts.  The Rockies are 11-1 in their last 12 home meetings with the Giants.  Take Colorado. 

7* Warriors/Rockets Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +6.5 

The Key: The Houston Rockets have held their own at home against the Warriors.  After losing Game 1, they came back to win Game 2 and 5.  And they were favorites in all 3 previous home games in this series.  Yet now they are 6.5-point underdogs in Game 7.  I like the price we are getting with them here.  Andre Iguodala is doubtful while Kevin Looney is questionable.  Chris Paul could return today, but it’s factored into the line that he’s not playing, so if he does it would only be an added bonus.  The Rockets showed they could play with the Warriors without Paul by taking a 17-point lead in Game 6 before faltering in the second half.  They should be able to sustain that level of play for 48 minutes this time around due to the boost they’ll get from their home fans.  The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss.  Take Houston.

6* Giants/Rockies NL West *CA$H COW* on Colorado -117 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Colorado Rockies as small home favorites over the San Francisco Giants tonight.  The Rockies have the edge on the mound with Chad Bettis, who is 4-1 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 10 starts this year.  He’ll be opposed by Andrew Suarez, who is 1-4 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 6 starts, including 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Suarez is also 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in 3 road starts this year.  Bettis is 1-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his last 3 starts against San Francisco.  The Giants are 1-5 in Suarez’s last 6 starts.  San Francisco is 22-52 in its last 74 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rockies are 15-3 in Bettis’ last 18 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockies are 10-1 int heir last 11 home meetings with the Giants.  Take Colorado. 

7* Cavs/Celtics Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -2.5 

The Key:  This one is just about as easy as it gets.  The home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the six meetings thus far in this series.  The home team has won all 6 games by 9 points or more.  Boston has beaten Cleveland by 25, 13 and 15 points in its three home meetings.  The Cavs’ role players just don’t travel well.  And now they’ll be without Kevin Love due to a concussion, making their task even more daunting today.  The Celtics are 10-0 at home in the playoffs and will improve to 11-0 while earning a trip to the NBA Finals with a victory tonight.  Take Boston. 

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Colorado Rockies -145 

The Key:  The Rockies will bounce back after losing by a single run to the Reds at home yesterday.  German Marquez has given up just 3 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts and comes in pitching well.  He’s the better starter in this matchup with Matt Harvey, who is 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA in seven starts this year, including 0-1 with a 6.16 ERA in four road starts.  The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win.  The Rockies are 5-0 in Marquez’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Colorado. 

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Twins +125 

The Key: The Twins lost 2-1 to the Mariners in Game 1 of this series last night.  They will bounce back with a win here Saturday.  Wade LeBlanc starts for the Mariners and is one of the worst starters in the big leagues.  Jake Odorizzi has proven to be a great addition for the Twins this offseason.  He has gone 3-2 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 10 starts, including 1-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  He pitched 6 shutout innings against the Mariners in his last start against them on May 14th.  The Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 road games.  The Twins are 9-4 in their last 13 meetings in Seattle.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Rockets/Warriors Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -11.5 

The Key: No Chris Paul, no chance for the Rockets.  They suffered a huge blow when he hurt his hamstring in the final seconds of Game 5 and has now been ruled out for Game 6.  He is the heart and soul of this team.  He is also a massive part of their game plan.  Mike D’Antoni staggers the minutes of Paul and Harden to make sure that at least one of them is on the court at all times.  Now the onus will be on Eric Gordon to take over Paul’s role, but he’s much better working off the ball.  And the Rockets will have to go deeper into their thin bench.  Houston knows it has a home game in its hip pocket coming up in Game 7, so I don’t expect the Rockets to be giving 100% trying to win Game 6.  It’s do or die for the Warriors, so they should come out like gangbusters and cover this 11.5-point spread with ease.  Take Golden State. 

7* Celtics/Cavs Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -7 

The Key: Home-court advantage has made all the difference in this series thus far, and I don’t see that changing in Game 6 in this do-or-die game for Cleveland.  The Celtics know they still have a home game in their back pocket, which is huge considering they are 10-0 at home in these playoffs.  They can afford to not show up tonight.  The Cavs don’t have the same luxury.  The Cavs are 7-0 at home in the playoffs, while the Celtics are 1-6 on the road.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series with an average win of 18 PPG.  Take Cleveland. 

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on New York Mets -123 

The Key: The New York Mets have a big edge on the mound tonight with Noah Syndergaard over Junior Guerra.  Syndergaard is 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA in 10 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA in 3 road starts.  Syndergaard has never lost to the Brewers, going 2-0 with a minuscule 0.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them.  Guerra was terrible last season and while he has held his own thus far in 2018, it’s not going to last.  He is 1-2 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 4 home starts this year.  The Mets are 12-4 on the road with a total of 7.0 to 8.5 this season.  New York is 11-2 in Syndergaard’s last 13 starts vs. NL Central teams.  The Brewers are 1-5 in Guerra’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take New York. 

7* Warriors/Rockets Game 5 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 219.5 

The Key: I’m surprised the books keep setting the number too high in this series.  The UNDER is 3-1 and we’ve seen lower scoring games as the series has gone on.  Houston beat Golden State 95-92 for only 187 combined points in Game 4.  Now this total is 219.5 for Game 5, which is 32.5 points more than their Game 4 result.  They will likely score more points than in Game 4, but they won’t reach 220 or more.  These teams are very familiar with each other now and defense is winning out.  It has become an isolation series as neither team is able to move the ball on offense.  That results in longer possessions and contested shots at the end of the shot clock frequently.  Houston is 13-2 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 games overall.  The UNDER is 38-18 in Rockets last 56 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Red Sox/Rays AL East *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +120 

The Key: The Tampa Bay Rays will be hungry to avoid the sweep tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Red Sox, and three straight overall.  They had won six straight prior to this skid.  Blake Snell has been the Rays’ best starter this year and is capable of shutting down the Red Sox.  Snell is 5-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.07 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 4 home starts.  Rock Porcello is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.673 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  This will be the 4th time that Porcello has faced the Rays already this season, which is a big advantage for the home team having already seen him 3 times.  Snell has held the Red Sox to just 2 earned runs in 13 innings in his 2 starts against them in 2018.  The Rays are 6-2 in their last 8 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  The Rays are 8-2 in Snell’s last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Tampa Bay. 

7* Cavs/Celtics Game 5 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 206.5 

The Key: Boston will control the tempo playing at home tonight just as they did in Games 2 and 3.  The Celtics and Cavs combined for just 191 points in Game 1 and 201 points in Game 2.  Now we’re seeing a total of 206.5 in Game 5, which I believe to be too high here.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Cavs last 20 games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Boston.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Braves/Phillies NL East *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia -116 

The Key: The Phillies have lost 7 of their 11 meetings with the Braves this season.  They won’t get to play them again until September 20th, so they want some revenge here.  They also want to end with a series win after splitting the first two games.  Jake Arrieta will get the job done for them tonight.  Arrieta is 3-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 8 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 1.07 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 4 home starts.  He is also 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Atlanta.  Luis Gohara will be making his first start for the Braves this season.  He has made three previous appearances out of the bullpen, but he cannot be expected to go deep into this game, which favors the Phillies getting into the Braves’ bullpen earlier.  The Braves are 1-4 in Gohara’s last 5 starts.  The Phillies are 14-3 in their last 17 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Rockets/Warriors Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +9 

The Key: The Houston Rockets will put forth a much better effort in Game 4 than they did in Game 3.  It was mind-blowing how poorly they played, and the Warriors took advantage.  But the Warriors will likely not have Andre Iguodala tonight, a key piece in their Hampton’s 5 lineup.  Buckets will be easier to come by for Houston without having Iguodala’s presence on the defensive end tonight.  And the Rockets surely won’t shoot as poorly as they 39% they shot in Game 3 as they continued to miss layup after layup.  They made great adjustments in Game 2, and I expect the same for Game 4 tonight.  Take Houston. 

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-125) 

The Key: The Houston Astros have a big edge on the mound tonight with Gerrit Cole over Andrew Suarez. Cole has been lights out in Houston, going 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.80 WHIP while striking out 93 batters in 61 2/3 innings.  Cole is also 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco.  Andrew Suarez is 1-3 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 5 starts for the Giants, including 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in his last 2 starts while yielding 9 earned runs, 18 base runners and 3 homers in 10 innings against the Pirates and Reds.  The Astros will be the toughest lineup he has faced yet this season. San Francisco is 3-16 in road games vs. a bullpen with a WHIP of 1.15 or better over the last 2 seasons. They are losing by 3.1 RPG on average.  Take Houston on the Run Line. 

7* Celtics/Cavs Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -7 

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are 35-13 at home this season, including 6-1 in the playoffs.  The Boston Celtics have been vulnerable on the road in the playoffs.  They are just 1-5 in their 6 road playoff games.  The Cavs won Game 3 by 30 and should have no problem covering this generous 7-point spread at home tonight to square this series.  Tyronn Lue is 16-5 ATS off a blowout home win by 20 points or more as the coach of the Cavs.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Diamondbacks/Brewers NL *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee +103 

The Key: The Milwaukee Brewers should be able to win as home underdogs against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight.  It’s shocking that the Diamondbacks are favored considering they are just 1-10 in their last 11 games overall.  This poor stretch is largely due to all the injuries in their lineup.  The Brewers keep winning on the regular and are now 28-19 this season, consistently undervalued.  Chase Anderson is 3-3 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 8 starts this year.  Zack Greinke is 1-2 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 3 road starts, continuing his career trend of being great at home but sub-par on the road.  Anderson is 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Arizona.  Greinke is 1-3 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts vs. Milwaukee.  Arizona is 3-14 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better this season.  Milwaukee is 17-4 vs. teams who average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits this season.  Take Milwaukee. 

7* Rockets/Warriors Game 3 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 226 

The Key: Points will be harder to come by as this series goes along and the Rockets and Warriors learn offensive tendencies.  These teams are both better defensively than they get credit for.  Houston is 9-1 UNDER off a combined score of 215 points ormolu in two straight games this season.  The Rockets are 7-0 UNDER in road games off three consecutive home games this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Rockets last 12 vs. NBA Pacific division.  The UNDER is 21-10 in Rockets last 31 overall.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Warriors last five games overall.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Indians/Astros ESPN *BAILOUT* on Houston -132 

The Key: The Astros will be able to take down the Indians at home tonight behind Lance McCullers.  The right-hander has been dominant at home in his young career.  McCullers is 14-5 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 32 home starts.  He has gone 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 3 home starts this year.  Carlos Carrasco has allowed 9 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in his last 2 starts against Houston.  The Astros are 32-14 in their last 46 home games.  The Astros are 56-27 in their last 83 games following a loss.  Take Houston. 

7* Celtics/Cavs Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -6 

The Key: This is a great situation to back the Cavaliers.  They are down 0-2 and returning home for a must-win game.  They will be 100% locked in.  It also helped them having three days off after last playing on Tuesday, especially Lebron James who really needed the rest.  The Cavs should come out like gangbusters tonight.  The Celtics will likely relax knowing that they have a cushion now after keeping their home-court advantage.  And while the Celtics haven’t lost at home in these playoffs, they are just 1-4 on the road with their lone victory coming in overtime.  Take Cleveland. 

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Pittsburgh Pirates -134 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Pirates have won 8 of their last 10 games overall and are looking to bounce back from a one-run loss to the Padres yesterday.  They should get the job done thanks to their edge on the mound in this game.  Nick Kingham is a nice young prospect for the Pirates.  He is 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in 2 starts while striking out 16 batters in 12 1/3 innings.  Clayton Richard is 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 9 starts for the Padres, including 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in 3 road starts.  The Padres are 1-5 in Richard’s last 6 road starts.  San Diego is 5-16 in its last 21 games following a win.  The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Pirates are 19-7 in their last 26 home games.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* NL Central Game of the Month on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+100) 

The Key: The Chicago Cubs come into this series with the Reds hungry for a victory after dropping 3 of their last 4 games.  They will win by multiple runs tonight thanks to their edge on the mound.  Jon Lester is 3-1 with a 2.66 ERA in 8 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA in his last 3 starts.  He’ll be opposed by Homer Bailey, who is 1-5 with a 5.59 ERA in 9 starts, 0-4 with a 6.33 ERA in 5 home starts, and 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Bailey sports a 4.53 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 18 lifetime starts against the Cubs.  The Cubs are 9-0 in Lester’s last 9 Friday starts.  Chicago is 27-6 in Lester’s last 33 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 5-16 in Bailey’s last 21 home starts.  Cincinnati is 5-22 in its last 27 division games.  The Reds are 0-4 in Bailey’s last 4 starts vs. Chicago.  The Cubs are 43-18 in the last 61 meetings.  The Cubs are 11-2 in Lester’s last 13 starts vs. Cincinnati.  Take Chicago on the Run Line. 

7* American League Game of the Month on Toronto Blue Jays -112 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Toronto Blue Jays are small home favorites over the Oakland A’s today.  The A’s are in a massive letdown spot in this series with the Blue Jays.  They are coming off back-to-back road series at the Yankees and Red Sox and won’t be nearly as excited to face Toronto.  The A’s are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in Game 1 of this series.  Andrew Triggs is 3-1 in spite of a 5.31 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 8 starts for the A’s this season.  He’ll be opposed by Aaron Sanchez, who is clearly the better starter at 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA in 8 starts.  The A’s are 1-7 in Triggs’ last 8 starts during Game 1 of a series.  Oakland is 12-27 in its last 39 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 6-0 in Sanchez’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Blue Jays are 11-3 in Sanchez’s last 14 starts during game 1 of a series.  Take Toronto. 

7* Warriors/Rockets Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -1.5 

The Key: The Houston Rockets will be hungry to even this series and get right back in it.  They did win two out of three against the Warriors during the regular season, so they know they are capable.  And it’s unlikely Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson shoot that well again.  The Warriors are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games off a win by 10 points or more.  Golden State is also just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on one day of rest.  Take Houston. 

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on San Francisco Giants -145 

The Key: I’ve backed the Giants each of the last two days with success and I’m back on them against against the lowly Cincinnati Reds as they cap off the series sweep.  They have the edge on the mound once again with Andrew Suarez, who is 1-2 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 4 starts, and 0-1 with a 4.38 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 2 home starts.  Matt Harvey is 0-2 with a 5.04 ERA in 5 starts this season, and 0-1 with a 6.00 WHIP in 3 road starts.  Harvey is on a pitch count right now and will allow the Giants to get into the Reds’ bullpen early.  Harvey has never beaten the Giants, going 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Reds/Giants National League *BAILOUT* on San Francisco -128 

The Key: I cashed in the Giants last night and I’m back on them again tonight at a very generous price at home against one of the worst teams in baseball.  The Reds were getting too much love from the books due to their 6-game winning streak coming into this series.  They continue to get too much love tonight.  They are still just 14-28 on the season.  The Giants came into the series not getting any love after a 1-6 stretch.  And that continues here in Game 2.  I like Ty Black over Tyler Mahle in this one.  Blach gave up only 2 earned runs in 7 innings in his last start against the Reds.  Cincinnati’s best hitter Joey Votto was injured last night and may not play tonight.  The Reds are 13-35 against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.  The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take San Francisco. 

7* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Cleveland Cavaliers +1 

The Key: I’m shocked the Cavs aren’t big favorites over the Celtics in Game 2 tonight.  They got their asses kicked in Game 1 and are sure to come back with a big effort tonight.  They made only 4 3-pointers in the game and shot just 15% from distance.  The odds of them shooting anything close to that again from deep are slim to none.  The Cavs will come with a much better game plan after making some adjustments, and they are clearly the more talented team in this series.  That talent will shine through in Game 2 tonight.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Cavs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to Boston.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Reds/Giants National League *BAILOUT* on San Francisco -138 

The Key: The San Francisco Giants return home from a brutal 10-game road trip.  They went 1-6 over their final 7 games and will be hungry for a victory Monday night against the Cincinnati Reds.  The Reds are in a letdown spot off a shocking 4-game sweep of the Dodgers and a 6-game winning streak overall.  That’s why we are getting the Giants at a lower price than we should be here.  Chris Stratton has been effective for the Giants this season and should shut down this Reds’ lineup.  Sal Romano is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 3 road starts this year.  The Giants are 8-0 in Stratton’s last 8 starts with a total set of 8 to 8.5.  San Francisco is 7-1 in Stratton’s last 8 home starts.  Cincinnati is 15-41 in its last 56 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The Reds are still just 16-37 in their last 53 games overall.  Take San Francisco. 

7* Warriors/Rockets Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -1 

The Key: The Houston Rockets are the only team in the NBA that has the goods to beat the Warriors.  They are very similar teams, but the Rockets have the deeper bench and will be able to hang with the Warriors in this series.  I think they take Game 1 tonight in Houston.  They won 2 of 3 meetings with the Warriors during the regular season.  They are hungry for a title and realize this is their best chance since Hakeem Olajuwon.  Houston is 22-8 ATS off a home ATS loss where they won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.  The Rockets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on 3 or more days of rest.  Take Houston. 

6* Sunday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Reds/Dodgers OVER 7.5 

The Key: This total has been set lower than it should be today.  Luis Castillo and Rich Hill have both been awful this year and should get rocked.  Castillo is 2-4 with a 6.47 ERA in 8 starts, and 1-2 with a 7.22 ERA in 5 road starts.  Hill is 1-1 with a 7.11 EREA in 4 starts this year, including 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA in his lsat 3 starts.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hill’s last 4 starts overall.  Take the OVER.