Sports Picks & Predictions

6* NCAAB Saturday Night Bailout on Seattle -7.5
The Key: Seattle opened as a 9-point favorite and its coming off back-to-back losses, playing against a team off back-to-back wins and has the same number of wins (6) as its opponent? The books clearly want the money coming in on Texas State and they've got it as this line has been bet down to 7.5. I'm not going to oblige them. Prior to pulling off consecutive improbable wins on the road, Texas State had lost 5 straight road games by an average of 10.4 points. The Redhawks have been terrific in bounce-back spots at 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss. It is also extremely important to note that Texas State is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Davalos when it enters a matchup with covers in 2 of its last 3 games. It has lost by an average of 10.1 points in this situation. Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on 76ers +3.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses to the Spurs and Bucks and further fueled by a pair of blowout defeats to the Knicks in the season's first two meetings, expect this rested 76ers squad to come alive tonight. The 76ers will no doubt be the fresher team and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Also, Philly is on an 11-2 ATS run when checking into a matchup with losses in 8 of more of its last 10 games. It has actually won by an average score of 95.8 to 89.8 in this situation. The Knicks check in off Thursday's big win at Boston but are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Take the points.

7* ACC Game of the Week on NC State -4.5
The Key: As if Tuesday's loss at Wake Forest isn't enough motivation, the Wolfpack have lost 13 straight to the Tar Heels. NC State returns 4 starters from last year's team, while UNC returns just 1, and I believe those 4 will dig down deep to end this lengthy skid in impressive fashion. The Wolfpack are a terrific 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 versus conference opponents. It is also extremely important to note that the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Lay the points.

7* Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year on UL Monroe -2.5
The Key: UL Monroe is being favored against a team it lost to by 9 points earlier this month for a reason. That reason is Troy has been awful on the road. The Trojans are 0-6 in their last 6 road games and have lost them by an average of 9.2 points. The home team has certainly had the edge in this series as it is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. This is also a letdown spot for Troy following Thursday's big win over Arkansas State. Troy is on 4-14 ATS slide in road games when checking in off an upset win. They have lost these contests by an average score of 75.9 to 71.3. In addition, the Trojans are on a 5-15 ATS skid on the road in games when the line is +3 to -3. The Warhawks were kicked at Arkansas State their last time out but are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 20 points. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a losing record. Lay the points.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +13.5
The Key: TCU lost 51-40 at Baylor earlier this month, but consider that home teams that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that held them to less than 50 points, provided they check in off a road loss by 20 points or more, are 93-49 ATS since 1997. Also, Baylor is just 10-20 ATS all-time under coach Drew in games following a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. TCU's coach Johnson is on a 36-19 ATS run when out for revenge a same-season loss to an opponent. Take the points.

6* ACC *CA$H COW* on Georgia Tech -6
The Key: Expect a letdown from Wake following a big upset win over NC State. Tech will be geared up as it is still looking for its first conference win. Wake is on a 59-84 ATS slide in road games against conference opponents and a 29-47 ATS skid in road games off a win against a conference rival. The Demon Deacons are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Georgia Tech, and the home team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Lakers -5
The Key: Motivated by four consecutive losses and defeats in each of the season's first two meetings with Utah, I expect the Lakers to come alive at home tonight. The Lakers have been respectable on their home floor where they are 12-10. 11 of their 12 home wins have come by 5 points or more so when they win they typically win by a comfortable margin. The Jazz are just 9-15 SU and 9-14-1 ATS on the road and are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games versus teams that have a winning home record. In addition, the Lakers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 10 points. LA is sick of hearing it might not make the playoffs. It is sick of hearing that this team is a failure. I expect it to play some very desperate basketball to make a statement tonight. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Kings +9.5
The Key: The Thunder are being overvalued in Sacramento tonight. They won the season's first meeting by just 10 points at home, and they'll have a tough time posting another double-digit win over the Kings on the road. The Kings have been extremely competitive at home where they have won or lost by less than 10 points in 14 of their last 18 games. In addition, they have won or lost by less than 10 points in 7 of 8 all-time home meetings versus the OKC Thunder. It bodes well for us that Sacramento enters off a poor performance against the Suns as it is on a 28-13 ATS run off an upset loss by 10 points or more at home. It has won by an average score of 106.1 to 102.0 in this situation. Take the points.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Houston Rockets +2.5
The Key: The value clearly lies with the Rockets here. Houston was a two-point favorite when it lost in New Orleans Jan. 9, and now it finds itself as a 2.5-point dog. That's two big of a line swing considering the Rockets won the season's first two meetings. The Hornets are just 7-14 at home this season so they can definitely be had at home. Houston is 8-14 on the road so it actually has a slightly better road mark than New Orleans has at home. It is significant that New Orleans played its last game on the road since it is 1-10 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. It has lost by an average score of 96.3 to 87.1 in this situation. Also, Houston is on a 46-27 ATS run in road games when it checks in with 6 or 7 losses in its last 8 games. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Siena +7.5
The Key: Siena will be out for some serious revenge this evening as it was embarrassed 87-64 at Niagara last week. Prior to that defeat, Siena had won two of the previous three meetings with the loss coming by only four points. This is a lot of points for Niagara to be laying on the road considering it is just 3-7 in games played away from home this season. Only one of its road wins have come by more than three points. Siena is just 2-6 at home this season but has won its last two home games. Plus, just two of its home defeats have come by more than six points. Siena is 7-0 ATS in home games in the month of January over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS off 2 straight losses to conference rivals over the last 2 seasons. Niagara is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland +2.5
The Key: After getting pulverized by Gonzaga and St. Mary's, I expect Portland to show up in a big way tonight. San Francisco has won 5 straight in the series and put it on the Pilots good in last season's conference tourney so Portland will be out for some serious revenge. It only lost by 1 point in last season's home meeting and returns 3 starters from that team while San Francisco returns only 1. In other words, the Pilots certainly have what it takes to win this one outright. The Pilots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after being held to less than 50 points in their previous game, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss of more than 20 points. The Pilots are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. These 5 trends form a 31-11 ATS angle that I have no problem getting behind. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on CS Fullerton +2.5
The Key: Cal Davis enters off a pair of wins over conference foes while CS Fullerton checks in off back-to-back double-digit losses at home. This scenario actually bodes well for us as plays against home teams off 2 straight wins against conference rivals that are up against an opponent off 2 consecutive home losses of 10 points or more are 43-14 ATS since 1997. It is also worth noting that Cal Davis is 0-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. It has lost by an average of 8.0 points in this situation. Fullerton is an impressive 6-0 ATS as an underdog this season. It is 2-2 SU in its last 4 games in the role with both of the losses coming by only 2 points. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Magic -3.5
The Key: As if 3 consecutive defeats aren't enough motivation, the Magic have lost each of the season's first 3 meetings with the Raptors. They were absolutely embarrassed (123-88) at home when these two last met, and I expect them to do something about it here. It is also significant that they took it on the chin at Detroit in their last game. That's because they are 40-15-2 ATS in their last 57 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Raptors just lost an overtime game in Miami against the defending champs last night and will have a tough time getting up for this one both physically and emotionally as a result. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on IUPU Ft. Wayne +3
The Key: Off an upset win over North Dakota State last time out, expect a letdown from Western Illinois here. IUPU Ft. Wayne, on the other hand, should be very focused following a poor performance against Missouri-KC. It will also be hungry to avenge last month's 12-point loss at Western Illinois. Teams headed up by Jim Molinari are just 4-13 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. His teams have lost by an average of 2.6 points in these contests. Also, Western is 1-9 ATS the last 3 seasons, provided they are 15 games or more into their schedule, versus teams that have a losing record. They have actually lost by an average of 2.1 points to these teams. Take the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Trailblazers -1
The Key: As if 6 consecutive losses aren't enough motivation, the Blazers have lost 3 straight to Indiana. I'll lay this small number with the home team in this highly motivated spot. Indiana has won back-to-back games which means it's time to start fading away. Consider that the Pacers are 2-10 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Also, the Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. The Trailblazers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the number.

6* Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Washington State +11.5
The Key: Off an upset loss at home to Colorado and matched up against a ranked Oregon squad that checks in off an upset win at UCLA, Washington State is being undervalued. Consider that plays against home favorites of 10 or more points that check in off a win against a conference rival and are matched up against an opponent that is coming off an upset loss at home are 78-41 ATS the last 5 seasons. That's a 65.5% cover rate. Not only will the Cougars be motivated by laying an egg against Colorado, they will be fueled by 3 straight losses to the Ducks. Take the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz -7
The Key: Washington has won 5 of 7 and has covered the spread in each of these 7 games and is being overvalued as a result. Utah won the season's first meeting by 7 points on the road and it won the most recent meeting in Utah by 14. It has won 5 of its last 6 at home versus the Wizards with 4 of these wins coming by at least 14 points. The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a losing record, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. It is also significant that Washington enters off a narrow win at Portland. That's because it is 0-8 ATS in road games after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. It has lost by an average score of 113.9 to 99.0 in these games. Lay the points.

6* ACC *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Georgia Tech +10.5
The Key: Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats and a 12-point loss at North Carolina in last season's matchup, the Yellow Jackets will be hungry tonight. Prior to last season's loss, Georgia Tech had won 4 straight versus the Tar Heels and it is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Looking back further, the Yellow Jackets are 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Georgia Tech is a terrific defensive team. It ranks 10th in the country in field goal percentage defense, holding its opponents to just 37.3% shooting. This stat is significant because the Heels are 11-25 ATS all-time under coach Williams 15 or more games into a season versus very good defensive teams that hold their foes to 39% shooting or worse. The Heels have actually lost these games by 0.9 points on average. Take the points.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* (ESPNU) on Texas Tech +12
The Key: Off 4 straight double-digit defeats and a pair of double-digit losses to Iowa State last season, Texas Tech is being undervalued on its home floor tonight. I'll gladly take the points with the Red Raiders in this highly motivated spot considering the Cyclones are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Cyclones are also 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings and 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings at Texas Tech. Take the points.

6* Atlantic 10 *CA$H COW* on Charlotte -3.5
The Key: Motivated by a 20-point loss at Richmond last time out, and further motivated by 3 consecutive losses to Xavier, Charlotte will be ready to go from the opening tip. The 49ers are an unbeaten 9-0 at home where they are winning by an average of 11.9 points. They are one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking 9th in the nation in field goal percentage defense, holding opponents to just 37.2% shooting. This is significant because the Musketeers are 1-8 ATS all-time under coach Mack in road games versus very good defensive teams that hold their foes to 39% from the floor or less. They have lost to these teams by an average of 6.8 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Dominator on Thunder/Clippers Under 201
The Key: With neither of these teams wanting to drop a second straight game, I'm expecting a very hotly contested defensive battle this evening. It is significant that the Thunder check in off an upset loss at Denver as they are 17-6 Under following an upset loss over the last 2 seasons. We have seen just 196.1 total points scored in these games on average. Also, plays Under on road teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 that are off an upset loss on the road, provided they have a winning record and are playing another winning team, are 62-24 since 1996. This system is 15-3 the last 3 seasons and 5-1 this season. Bet the Under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bucks -6.5
The Key: It's going to be tough for Philly to turn right around and bring enough energy to the floor tonight following last night's tough loss to San Antonio. The Bucks, meanwhile, should be confident following back-to-back wins on the road and fresh as they haven't played since Saturday. The 76ers will be looking for a revenge for a 9-point loss at home in the season's first meeting but consider that plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent, provided they check in off a cover at home in a game they lost straight up, are 23-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 6.8 points on average and have lost by an average of 11.1 points. The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 2 days' rest. Lay the number.

7* Big Ten Game of the Month on Wisconsin -5.5
The Key: Motivated by Saturday's loss at Iowa and further motivated by three consecutive defeats to Michigan State, Wisconsin will show up in a big way tonight. The home team has long dominated this series in terms of the point spread as it is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings. The Spartans are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, and the Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Wisconsin is 23-7 ATS all-time under coach Ryan as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pickem. It is also 18-4 ATS under Ryan as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and has won these contests by an average score of 69.6 to 57.9. In addition, Michigan State is 14-29 ATS all-time under Izzo as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pickem. Lay the points.

6* NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on 76ers +6.5
The Key: I like the 76ers catching points at home here as they have the edge in terms of fresh legs and will be highly motivated to avenge an embarrassing loss earlier this month in San Antonio. Philly has had 2 days off since its last game. It had 2 days off prior to that game as well, 2 days off prior to the one before that and 2 days off prior to the one before that. In other words, the 76ers should be very fresh. San Antonio, on the other hand, will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days. Tim Duncan will be rested as he got Saturday off but the rest of the Spurs figure to be a step slower than the 76ers in this one. The Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The 76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The underdog is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings, and the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Fairfield -4.5
The Key: Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats, including a 5-point loss at Loyola Maryland Jan. 11, expect the Stags to bounce back strong this evening. Teams headed up by coach Sydney Johnson are 15-5 ATS all-time when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. His teams are also 17-6 ATS all-time 15 or more games into the season versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4.0 points or more per game. Fairfield has been very disappointing to this point considering it finished 12-6 in the MAAC last season and already has 5 conference losses this season. Look for the Stags to come alive with their back against the wall as so many teams often do. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hawks -7.5
The Key: Off back-to-back narrow defeats to the Nets and Spurs, and further fueled by a 5-point loss at Minnesota earlier this month, the Hawks will be extremely hungry when they hit the floor this afternoon. The T-Wolves enter off an upset win over Houston but are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Minnesota is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games overall and has struggled on the road where it is on a 0-4 SU and ATS slide. These 4 losses have come by an average of 16.8 points. Prior to losing to a very good Spurs team in its last home game, Atlanta had rattled off back-to-back home wins over Utah and Brooklyn by 8 and 14 points, respectively. Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +1.5
The Key: The Nuggets were embarrassed at Oklahoma City Wednesday, and they allowed that poor performance to carry over into a 112-108 home loss to the Wizards Friday. After these disappointing efforts, I fully expect Denver to be ready to go this evening. The Nuggets are one of the best teams in the NBA at home where they are 15-3 on the season. The
Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. The Nuggets are a rock solid 115-92 ATS under coach Karl when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. It is also significant that the Thunder enter off a 3-point OT win in Dallas as they are on a 5-15 ATS slide following a road win of 3 points or less and on a 10-23 ATS skid after a close win by 3 points or less. Bet Denver.

6* AFC Championship *CA$H COW* on Patriots -8.5
The Key: The public is piling on Baltimore after watching it upset Denver last week but consider that road underdogs or 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off an upset win, provided they have a winning record and are playing another winning team in the second half of the season, are 72-36 ATS since 1983. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average of 10.3 points. The Ravens won the regular-season meeting but the Pats are 13-4 ATS all-time under coach Belichick when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. New England is also 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. It has won these games by an average of 18.0 points. Baltimore benefited from a pick-six and a couple bombs against the Broncos. It can't be counted on to make the same big plays this week. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* (ESPNU) on Clemson +10
The Key: NC State will be looking to bounce back following a 1-point loss at Maryland. I expect it to get the job done but not by double digits. Consider that Clemson has won or lost by 9 points or less to NC State in 10 straight meetings. Also, NC State is 0-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, 0-6 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons and 0-7 ATS in home games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers played Gonzaga to an 8-point game on a neutral floor in a game in which they shot just 31% from the field so they have shown they can stick with a good team outside their home gym. Plus, I believe they'll be looking to make a statement that they can compete with the big boys in the ACC after a poor showing at Duke in their last road contest. Take the points.

7* NFL Conference Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Falcons +5
The Key: The 49ers looked dominant against the Packers last week, and the public is jumping all over them as a result. That game, however, was at home. San Francisco hasn't been the same team on the road where it has 3 losses, including a 42-13 loss to a Seattle team the Falcons just defeated. Atlanta must be taken seriously at home where it is 8-1 this season and 34-8 in its last 42 games. The numbers suggest the public's kneejerk reaction to back the 49ers isn't the right move. Consider that San Francisco is on a 14-31 ATS slide in road games following a win of 14 or more points. The Niners have lost these games by an average of 2.4 points. It is also significant that Atlanta failed to cover the spread last week. That's because it is 22-8 ATS all-time under coach Mike Smith after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. It has won these games by an average of 8.0 points. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Bailout on Portland +12
The Key: St. Mary's is set up for letdown following an upset win at BYU. Consider that favorites of 10 to 19.5 points off a close road win by 3 points or less, provided they have a winning record on the season and are playing a losing team, are 62-31 ATS the last 5 seasons. Portland was embarrassed 71-49 at home by Gonzaga last time out but it is 8-1 ATS all-time under coach Reveno following a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a conference rival. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Trailblazers -4
The Key: Having had 2 days to gear up for this game, I fully expect the Blazers to bring their 4-game skid to a screeching halt. They have been embarrassed the last two times they faced Milwaukee so this is a game they want badly. The Blazers were upset by Cleveland last time out but they are 9-1 ATS in home games off an upset loss over the last 2 seasons. They have won by an average score of 101.8 to 87.4 in this situation. The Bucks check in off a 4-point win at Phoenix but are 0-7 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season. They have lost by an average of 15.0 points in these games. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Saturday Night *CA$H COW* on Tennessee Martin +6.5
The Key: Tennessee-Martin has had a week to put an ugly 90-53 loss to Belmont behind itself. That week off gives it the advantage here as it goes up against a Morehead State squad playing its second road games in 3 days. The Skyhawks should be the fresher and more prepared team Saturday evening. The Skyhawks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 20 points. The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing record. Take the points.

6* Summit League Game of the Week on IUPUI +12
The Key: I'll grab the points with IUPUI at home in this highly motivated spot. The Jaguars were embarrassed 78-40 by North Dakota State in their last game, and they were also embarrassed by 21 points by South Dakota State in last season's Summit League tourney so they will be ready to go this afternoon. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points that have covered the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, provided they have had 1 or less days' rest, are 78-39 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, plays against favorites of 10 or more points after a win by 6 points or less that are matched up against an opponent after a loss by 15 points or more are 153-92 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

7* C-USA Game of the Year on Tulane -7.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses and with 5 straight defeats to Tulsa further stoking the fire, I expect the Green Wave to explode to victory at home this afternoon. Plays on favorites that have been held to 65 points or less in 3 straight games, provided they return all 5 starters from last season, are 65-32 (67%) ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 7.6 points and have won by an average of 9.3. This system is 30-13 (69.7%) ATS the last 3 seasons. It is significant that oddsmakers have made Tulsa this large of a dog. That's because it is on a 3-13 ATS slide as road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points and has lost these games by an average of 10.3 points. Tulsa has struggled away from home going just 2-6 in its last 8 road/neutral floor contests. 5 of these losses came by double digits. Tulane, meanwhile, is 10-1 this season at home where it is winning by an average of 13.7 points. Lay the number.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Texas +8.5
The Key: After starting Big 12 play 0-3 and having had a week in between games, Texas will be motivated and prepared when it takes the floor this afternoon. The Longhorns have been one tough cookie at home where they are 7-1 and blew the doors off a very talented North Carolina team. The Longhorns are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Jayhawks have won 14 in a row and are being overvalued because of it. Consider that they are just 25-38 ATS after 9 or more consecutive wins under coach Self. Also, plays against a favorite after 9 or more consecutive wins, provided it is a top-level team that has won 80% or more of its games on the season, are 308-215 (58.9%) ATS the last 5 seasons. The value clearly lies with Texas and the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Fairfield +6
The Key: Fairfield has lost 3 in a row but none of these losses came by more than 5 points. It's tough to blow out Fairfield because it plays such solid defense. The Stags give up only 61.6 points per game and hold their opponents to 41% shooting. They have allowed only 2 of their last 9 foes to shoot better than 40% from the field. Consider that Iona is 0-6 ATS the last 2 seasons versus good defensive teams that hold their opponents to 42% shooting or worse from the field, provided it is 15 games or more into the season. The Gaels have lost these games by an average of 1.8 points. Also, plays on any excellent defensive team that gives up 63 points or less per game that is up against a poor defensive team that allowed 74-78 ppg, provided the "play on" side is coming off a loss by 6 points or less, are 60-28 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Bobcats +7.5
The Key: Charlotte will be the fresher team tonight as it has had one day of rest more than Orlando. It will also be the hungrier team as it looks to bounce back from Tuesday's embarrassing 27-point loss to the Pacers and goes after revenge for last month's 9-point loss to the Magic. Prior to that defeat, the Bobcats had won or played the Magic to within 7 points in 3 straight matchups. Orlando is a poor 3-13 ATS when playing the last 2 seasons when matched up against teams that have won 25% of their games or less. It has actually lost to these teams by an average of 2.5 points. The Magic are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Peter's +4
The Key: St. Peter's has lost its last 4 games. It has also lost 3 straight to Rider and was embarrassed 90-55 in the most recent meeting. In other words, the Peacocks will have no trouble getting up for this one. Rider has been a poor investment when laying points. In fact, it is on a 62-90 ATS slide as a favorite. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points with St. Peter's in this highly motivated spot.

6* Sun Belt Conference *CA$H COW* on Western Kentucky -8
The Key: Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and further fueled by a 2-point home loss to UL Lafayette last season, expect Western Kentucky to take care of business tonight. The Ragin' Cajuns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Hilltoppers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. Lastly, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Lay the number.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Timberwolves +5
The Key: The Timberwolves have lost 4 in a row but each of those came on the road. They have been a much better team at home where they are 10-5 on the season. In fact, Minnesota is 7-2 in its last 9 home games with neither of the losses coming by more than 5 points. It has a win over Oklahoma City during this stretch. The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Also, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hawks -4
The Key: Off back-to-back defeats, including an ugly 97-58 loss at Chicago in their last game, expect the Hawks to come alive tonight. The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. It is also significant that Brooklyn played last night as it is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing without a day of rest. The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the Nets are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta. The Hawks have won 5 in a row versus the Nets with each of these 5 wins coming by at least 5 points. Lay the number.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Magic +2.5
The Key: The Magic have lost 11 of 12, but they have been very competitive. 7 of these losses have come by 4 points or less or in overtime. They have a win over the Clippers and have played the Nuggets, Blazers, Bulls, Heat and Jazz right down to the wire during this stretch. The Pacers just played last night and this will be their 4th game in 5 days. The Magic have had a days' rest and this is a game they want badly as they were knocked out of the playoffs by the Pacers last season. The Pacers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a win. Also, teams tend to be overvalued following a dominant performance like the one the Pacers had last night. They murdered Charlotte on the boards and only allowed them 4 offensive rebounds. However, Indiana is 0-8 ATS after a game where it gave up 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. It has actually lost by an average of .2 points in this situation. Take the points.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Maryland -2
The Key: This is a big letdown spot for NC State following its upset win over then-No. 1 Duke. This is a big bounce-back spot for Maryland, meanwhile, as it checks in off back-to-back losses. This is also a revenge spot for the Terrapins as they lost by 5 at NC State in last season's matchup. Maryland is 11-1 at home this season. Plus, it is 4-0 in its last 4 home games versus the Wolfpack and has won each of these by at least 7 points. The Wolfpack are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Maryland. Lay the points.

6* MAC *CA$H COW* on Buffalo pk
The Key: Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, including an upset loss at home to Miami Ohio in its last game, expect Buffalo to come storming back this evening. The Bulls are 15-6 ATS under coach Reggie Witherspoon in home games off a home loss and have won by an average of 5.5 points in this situation. The Golden Flashes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a losing record. The home team has had the edge in this series as it is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Golden Flashes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Buffalo. Bet Buffalo.

6* ACC *CA$H COW* on Boston College +6.5
The Key: This is a game Boston College really wants. It was embarrassed by 20+ in both of last season's meetings, and it will be very focused and hungry tonight because of it. Boston College is 29-18 ATS as an underdog under coach Donahue and 25-13 ATS against conference opponents under him. The Eagles are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on DePaul +6.5
The Key: Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that held their last opponent to 60 points or less, provided they are matched up against a team that has scored 75 points or more in 2 straight games, are 38-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. The team fitting into this situation has been favored by 5.7 points on average but has won by just 1.1 points on average. This system is 6-1 ATS this season. The Bearcats are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at DePaul. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Raptors +7.5
The Key: The Raptors have lost the season's first two meetings but only by 7 and 6 points, respectively. With this in mind, I believe Brooklyn is getting a little too much respect here. The Raptors lost by 11 at home to Milwaukee their last time out but are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 10 points. It is also significant that Brooklyn enters off a big 11-point win and cover against Indiana. That's because the Nets are 4-17 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" *CA$H COW* on Clippers/Grizzlies Under 184
The Key: It is significant that Memphis is checks in off a 104-83 upset loss at Dallas. That's because it is 8-0 Under following an upset loss on the road over the last 2 seasons. We have seen just 179.1 total points scored on average in these games. The Grizzlies are also 7-0 Under after scoring 85 points or less this season. We have seen only 175.7 total points scored in these contests. We saw these teams combine for 193 points in the season's first meeting. However, they didn't score more than 178 total points in any of the 3 previous matchups. Bet the Under.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Elon +1.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back double-digit losses to Princeton and Appalachian State as well as a 2-point loss at home to Western Carolina in the most recent meeting, expect Elon to take care of business this evening. The Phoenix are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Catamounts, on the other hand, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. It is also worth noting that the road team is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings. Take Elon in this bounce-back spot.

6* NBA "Total" Bailout on Thunder/Trailblazers Under 199.5
The Key: Plays "under" on any top-caliber team that outscores its opponents by 9 points or more per game, after a blowout win by 15 points or more, are 70-41 the last 5 seasons. We have seen just 189.3 total points scored in this situation. The under is 4-1 in the Thunder's last 5 overall and 5-2 in their last 7 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Trailblazers last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games. We only saw 198 total points scored in the season's first meeting when Oklahoma City shot 51.3% from the field. I don't see them lighting up the hoop like that in Portland where the Blazers are a much better defensive team. Bet the Under.

7* AFC Divisional Round *HEAVY HITTER* on Texans +10
The Key: The Texans lost 42-14 in New England on Dec. 10, but consider this: road teams that are out for revenge for a loss of 14 points or more to an opponent, provided both teams have winning records, are 29-7 ATS the last 10 seasons. In addition, the Texans are 9-2 ATS all-time under coach Kubiak when out for revenge for a loss of 14 points or more to an opponent. They have won these contests by an average of 4.8 points. It is also worth noting that New England is 1-9 ATS all-time in home games under coach Belichick when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more. The Pats have won these contests by an average of only 2.7 points. Houston is good enough defensively and has a good enough running game to have its revenge against the New England.

6* NFC Divisional Round *CA$H COW* on Seahawks +3
The Key: The Falcons haven't shown they can be trusted in the playoffs. They are 0-3 in the postseason under coach Mike Smith and have been absolutely destroyed by the Packers and Giants the last 2 years. Seattle is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season, 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons, 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 6.0 points or more per game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Also, the Seahawks are 6-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. The Seahawks are playing outstanding football. They held the Redskins, one of the best offensive teams in the league, to just 203 yards last week. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Fairfield -5.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Niagara, which will be playing its third road game in 6 days. Fairfield should be the fresher side as it has played just once since Jan. 5. It should also be the more motivated side as it went down at Niagara Jan. 5. The Purple Eagles haven't been the same team on the road. They are 2-7 SU and ATS in games played away from home this season and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 true road games. The Stags have won 3 straight at home against Niagara with each of these wins coming by at least 6 points. It is also worth noting that the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Lastly, teams headed up by coach Sydney Johnson are 15-4 ATS all-time when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. Lay the points.

6* NFC Divisional Round *CA$H COW* on Packers +3
The Key: The Packers lost to the 49ers clear back in September, but I expect them to have their revenge. Green Bay is 13-2 against San Francisco dating back to 1996 and is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in road games during this span. The lone road loss came by only 3 points. The Packers are 37-22 ATS in all road games under coach Mike McCarthy and 24-13 ATS as an underdog under his watch. In addition, they are 16-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less under McCarthy and have won these games by an average of 4.3 points. I have a lot more faith in Aaron Rodgers than SF rookie Colin Kaepernick here. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Texas San Antonio +10
The Key: The value lies with Texas San Antonio this evening. Consider that plays against any team that outscores its opponents by an average of 8.0 points or more that is up against an opponent that gets outscored by an average of 8.0 points or more, provided it is at least 15 games into the season and the "play against" side has given up 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games, are 39-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Roadrunners are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Northern Colorado +6
The Key: This is a difficult spot for Montana as it is playing its 2nd road game in 3 days. The Grizzlies check in off a 15-point win over North Dakota but are on a 17-28 ATS slide in games after a win by 15 points or more. Northern Colorado enters off a narrow defeat to Montana State but is on a 10-2 ATS run off a home loss to a conference rival. Take the points.

7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Ravens +10
The Key: The Ravens fell 34-17 to the Broncos on Dec. 16, but that won't keep me off them here. Consider that underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are looking for revenge for a loss to an opponent that scored 28 points or more on them, provided it is the second half of the season and both teams have winning records, are 23-4 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this system have lost by just 0.7 points on average. This system is 10-1 ATS the last 5 seasons and 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. With last week's win over Indy, Baltimore improved to 6-4 in the postseason dating back to 2009. It is worth noting that only 1 of these defeats came by more than 9 points. Not playing last week is the worst thing that could have happened to the Broncos as it gets them out of rhythm and takes away their momentum. The Ravens are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Denver. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Santa Clara +1
The Key: Santa Clara returns all 5 starters from a team that was kicked by BYU in both of last season's meetings and it's payback time. BYU enters off a 25-point win over Pepperdine but is 0-8 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Cougars are also 4-12 ATS the last 2 seasons versus very good teams that are outscoring their opponents by 8.0 points or more per game. Take Santa Clara.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Bonaventure +8
The Key: St. Bonaventure has lost 4 in a row but 3 of those came on the road. The Bonnies have been a much better investment at home where they are 5-1 SU this season and 12-4 ATS in all lined games over the last 2 seasons. VCU is extremely reliant on the 3-point shot but the Bonnies are 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after 15 games into the season versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game. St. Bonaventure does a good job of defending the 3-point line here and turns in another solid effort at home.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on North Dakota -3.5
The Key: Tough spot for Montana State playing a second road game in 3 days. North Dakota is playing a second game in 3 days as well but has been at home. It should be the fresher and more prepared side because of it. Montana State is on a 4-12 ATS slide as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors -7
The Key: Expect a letdown from the Trail Blazers as they head out on the road following last night's come-from-behind win over the defending champs. The Warriors, meanwhile, will be very hungry following back-to-back defeats (SU and ATS). The Warriors are 19-8 ATS all-time under coach Jackson following 2 or more consecutive losses. They are 12-2 ATS under Jackson after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. The Trail Blazers are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games following an ATS win, 13-27-1 ATS in their last 41 games following a SU win and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. In addition, Portland is 0-8 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Blazers have lost by an average of 16.1 points in this situation. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Loyola-Chicago -3.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by 5 straight losses to Wright State, I expect Loyola-Chicago to take care of business tonight. The Wright State Raiders, who head out on the highway following 4 straight at home, are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games following three or more consecutive home games. The Raiders are also 10-25-3 ATS in their last 38 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 versus Horizon League foes. The Ramblers are 5-1 at home this season and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Ramblers are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Lay the points.

6* Never Lost NBA *CA$H COW* on Hawks -4
The Key: The Jazz can't be trusted on the road against quality competition. They are 8-18 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons and have lost these games by an average of 9.6 points. It is significant that Utah enters off a road win at Charlotte in its last game because it is 0-10 ATS all-time under coach Corbin in road games following a road win. It has lost these contests by an average of 10.6 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings -2
The Key: I don't expect Dallas to have enough legs in this one. It just played in L.A. last night while the Kings have had two days to rest up and prepare. You can bet this is a game the Kings want badly as they were embarrassed 119-96 at Dallas a month ago. Sacramento has won 4 of its last 5 and 6 of its last 8 at home. These wins have come against the likes of Boston, New York, Portland and Golden State so it's not as if the Kings have been playing cream puffs. Dallas has lost 4 in a row and 10 of 11. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Also, the home team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on UC Davis -1.5
The Key: As if back-to-back losses aren't enough motivation, UC Davis will be even more motivated by the fact it has lost 4 straight to Cal Poly. The Mustangs, who have won 3 in a row, are 5-15 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997. It is also worth noting that Cal Poly hasn't been a trustworthy road team. The Mustangs are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Iowa +2
The Key: Iowa is an impressive 16-5 ATS in home lined games over the last 2 seasons. It checks in off an ugly 95-67 loss at Michigan but is 10-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 7-0 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It is also worth noting that Michigan State is just 17-33 ATS in road games when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Tom Izzo. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Cal Irvine -7
The Key: Hawaii has won its last 3 games as it shot at least 50% from the field in each. Rest assured, the shots won't fall as easily against a very good Cal Irvine defense that ranks 15th in the country in field goal percentage defense (37.3%). Hawaii is 0-7 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since 1997. It has lost these games by an average of 9.4 points. Also, Hawaii is 8-23 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 points per game or less, provided they have played at least 15 games, since 1997. The Warriors have lost to these teams by an average of 8.5 points. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Warriors -1.5
The Key: Plays on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent, provided they are extremely well rest playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are 39-15 ATS since 1996. This system is a perfect 2-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Also, Golden State is 10-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. It is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season and 9-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Mavericks +10.5
The Key: Plays on road underdogs that have lost 8 or more of their last 10 games and are up against a team that has won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 62-27 (69.7%) ATS the last 5 seasons. The Mavs are also on an impressive 43-25 ATS run as an underdog of 10 or more points. Dallas is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles. Take the points.

6* Missouri Valley Conference *CA$H COW* on Southern Illinois +15.5
The Key: Southern Illinois will leave it all on the floor tonight. It has lost its last 4 games and was blown out by 43 points the last time it faced Wichita State so it will be lacking no motivation here. Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are coming off a road loss and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 61-28 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Salukis are 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings at Wichita St. Take the points.

6* Big East *CA$H COW* on Providence +11
The Key: The Friars fit into a very profitable wagering situation tonight. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points that are coming off a win against a conference rival and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a home upset loss of 10 points or more are 82-39 (67.8%) ATS since 1997. The Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on 76ers -1.5
The Key: The Nets, who are coming off a blowout win and cover against the Kings, are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Nets are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall. The 76ers enter off a double-digit loss to San Antonio but are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Nets are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Brown +5.5
The Key: The Niagara Purple Eagles have been a terrible investment in non-conference play. They are 8-21-2 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games. They are also 1-8 ATS in non-conference road games over the last 2 seasons and have lost these by an average of 10.0 points. Niagara is just 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games while the Brown Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Sacramento State -8
Bottom Line: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and feeling fresh and prepared with 3 days since its last game, expect Sacramento State to take care of business here. The Hornets are a solid 4-2 at home while Southern Utah is just 1-6 in games played away from home. Plays on favorites that have scored 65 points or less 3 straight games, provided they return all five starters, are 64-31 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system tightens up to 29-12 ATS the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

7* BCS Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -9.5
The Key: Notre Dame is undefeated but is very fortunate to be. 2 of its wins came in OT and 2 more of its victories came by only 3 points. Alabama is the better team on both sides of the football. It ranks No. 1 in the nation in total defense with 246.0 yards allowed per game and posted that number while playing a tough schedule. The Fighting Irish rank No. 6 in total defense with 286.8 yards allowed per game. Notre Dame gives up .4 less points per game, but it played the weaker schedule. Alabama has a larger edge on the offensive side of the football where it ranks 37th in total offense with 439.9 ypg and 14th in scoring with 38.5 ppg. The Irish rank 48th in total offense with 421.3 ypg and 76th in scoring with 26.8 ppg. Notre Dame is on a 5-21 ATS slide versus excellent defensive teams that give up 285 yards or fewer per game. It has lost these games by an average of 10.4 points. In the end, I just don't see the Notre Dame offense being able to make enough plays to keep this one within the number. That was the case for LSU in last season's title game when it was shut out 21-0 by the Tide. Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Cavaliers +8.5
The Key: The Bulls have been overvalued at home all season and are 3-14 ATS in home games as a result. They are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season and have won these contests by only 2.5 points on average. The Bulls are also 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 2 days' rest and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Also, the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

6* GoDaddy Bowl *CA$H COW* on Arkansas State -3.5
The Key: Kent State is one of the worst pass-defending teams in the country. It ranks 110th in the nation against the pass with 276.5 yards allowed per game, and that doesn't bode well considering it will be up against an explosive Arkansas State offense that ranks 15th in the land with 481.8 yards per game. 262.8 of the Red Wolves' yards come through the air, and they are 7-0 ATS versus poor pass defenses that allow 250 or more passing yards per game over the last 2 seasons. They are also 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

6* NFC Wild Card *CA$H COW* on Seahawks -3
The Key: Defense wins games this time of year, and Seattle definitely has the better defense. The Seahawks finished the season ranks No. 1 in the NFL in scoring defense with 15.3 points allowed per game. They ranked No. 4 in total defense with 306.2 yards allowed per contest. The Redskins, meanwhile, ranked 22nd in scoring defense (24.2 ppg allowed) and 28th in total defense (377.7 ypg allowed). Washington was one of the top offensive teams in the league, but just look at what the Seahawks have done to good offenses lately. Seattle is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 24 points or more per game over the last 2 seasons. They have defeated these teams by an average of 7.5 points. The Seahawks are also 7-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 7 or more passing yards per attempt over the last 2 seasons. They have defeated these foes by an average of 6.4 points. Furthermore, the Seabirds are 7-0 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.5 yards or more per carry over the last 2 seasons and have defeated these teams by an average of 10.0 points. Lastly, Seattle is 6-0 ATS all-time in the second half of the season under Pete Carroll versus poor defensive teams that give up 24.0 points or more per game. The Seahawks have won these contests by an average of 20.5 points. Lay the field goal.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Raptors +8
The Key: The Raptors were embarrassed by 20 points at Oklahoma City in the season's first meeting, but they are an impressive 9-1 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games when out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more. They have won these contests by an average score of 96.4 to 84.2. The Raptors lost at home to the Kings in their last game but are also an impressive 11-2 ATS in home games following a home loss over the last 2 seasons. They have won by an average score of 98.1 to 92.6 in these spots. Take the points.

7* NFL Wild Card *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens -6.5
The Key: Hats off to the Colts for a fantastic bounce back season, but the playoffs are a different animal. The Colts are very inexperienced. Nine of their starters have no postseason experience at all. Baltimore, meanwhile, has a roster stacked with playoff experience. Plus, we're talking about a team that is 4-0 in its opening playoff game the past 4 seasons and won each of them by at least 7 points. The Colts will depend on their rookie QB (Luck) in this one. And while he's had a good season, it shouldn't go unnoticed that he's thrown 18 picks and has a passer rating of just 76.5. The Baltimore pass defense has been outstanding down the stretch. It has held each of its last 3 and 5 of its last 7 foes below 200 yards passing. It is very significant that it has held its last 2 opponents below 150 yards passing because the Ravens are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Harbaugh after giving up 150 or less passing yards in 2 straight games. The Ravens have won by an average of 10.2 points in this situation. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Tennessee Tech +14
The Key: Belmont can't be trusted laying this many points on the road with only one day of rest and preparation time. That's because it is 0-7 ATS the last two seasons when playing with one or no days of rest. It has won these games on average but only by 5.8 points. Belmont is being overvalued here because it enters off a double-digit win over a Jacksonville State team that defeated Tennessee Tech by 21 points. Belmont is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Rick Byrd following a road win of 10 points or more. It has won these games on average but only by 6.6 points. Take the points.

6* Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Troy +3
The Key: Arkansas-Little Rock can't be trusted on the road where it is 0-5 SU and ATS this season. Troy has lost its last three games but is 16-5 ATS all-time under coach Don Maestri following three or more consecutive losses. The Trojans are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus teams that have a winning record. Troy has won or lost by three points or less in five of the last six meetings so I feel it is showing nice value catching three here. Also, the underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.

6* NFC Wild Card *CA$H COW* on Packers -7.5
The Key: Historically speaking, the numbers aren't in Minnesota's favor. Plays against any team off an upset win over a division rival at home, as long as it has a winning record and is playing another winning team, are 37-13 ATS since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Also, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are coming off an upset loss are 61-28 ATS since 1983. This system is 10-1 ATS the last 5 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The Packers are 7-1 at home and won this season's home meeting against the Vikes by 9 points despite giving up 240 yards rushing. The Vikings are just 3-5 on the road this season and are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 visits to Lambeau, losing them by an average of 17.0 points. Green Bay was gashed for 217 yards on the ground in Week 17 but is a perfect 6-0 ATS after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Magic +6.5
The Key: The Magic have lost seven in a row but four of these defeats came by four points or less so they have been competitive. The Knicks are coming off a big win over the Spurs but are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games versus teams that have a losing record. Take the points.

7* Wild Card Game of the Year on Texans -4.5
The Key: The Bengals closed the season strong but only beat two playoff teams all season. One of those wins came against Washington early in the year before it had rounded into form. The other came in Week 17 versus a Baltimore team that rested its starters the majority of the game. Houston crushed Cincy 31-10 in a wild-card matchup last season and did so without Matt Schaub under center. The Bengals are improved, but so are the Texans. This is one of the most talented teams in the NFL, one a lot of folks picked to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I still like its chances. Houston is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 meetings with Cincy dating back to 2008 and has won these by an average of 15.5 points. Houston's running game was way too much for the Bengals to handle in last season's playoff meeting as the Texans rushed for 188 yards. I expect it to be too much again. The Bengals are 9-18 ATS under coach Marvin Lewis versus strong running teams that average 130 yards or more per game on the ground. Lay the points.

7* Bowl Game of the Year on Ole Miss -3
The Key: Pitt took Notre Dame down to the wire but was outgained 522-308 and benefited from 3 turnovers. Overall, Ole Miss played the much tougher schedule and still managed to post as many wins as Pitt. The Rebels played Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Texas A&M and took the latter two right down to the wire. Pitt posted solid defensive numbers but did so against weaker competition. It will have a tough time slowing down an Ole Miss offense that averages 30.9 points and 426.8 ypg. Hugh Freeze's teams are 19-5 ATS all-time at the FBS level and 12-3 ATS in the favorite role. Basically, I feel Ole Miss is showing great value laying a small number against a Pitt team that is being overvalued because of its performance at Notre Dame. A closer look at that one shows it wasn't as close as what the final score looks. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee Bucks pk
The Key: I'm not hesitating to get behind the Bucks at home in this highly motivated spot. Milwaukee has lost its last 2 but is an impressive 33-16 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses under coach Skiles. It has won these contests by an average of 5.6 points. The Rockets are just 5-8 on the road and 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet the Bucks.

7* Cotton Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma +3.5
The Key: Johnny Manziel is the Heisman Trophy winner, but I like the experience of Landry Jones in this game. Plus, I don't expect "Johnny Football" to be as effective against a defense that has had over a month to prepare for him, especially without offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury calling the plays. The Texas A&M pass defense is suspect as it ranked 84th in the country with 248.4 ypg allowed. Oklahoma, which ranked 5th in passing offense with 340.5 ypg, has the passing attack to take advantage. The Aggies are on a 6-17 ATS slide in road/neutral field games versus excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game. The Aggies are also 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games versus a team with a winning record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. Also, Oklahoma has won each of its last 3 bowl games and 8 of its last 9 matchups against Texas A&M. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Rhode Island -9
The Key: Motivated by an 82-59 loss at St. Mary's in its last game, and further fueled by a 65-56 loss at Brown last season, expect Rhode Island to take care of business at home this evening. The Bears are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games while the Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. Also, Rhode Island is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that carry a winning percentage of 20% to 40%. It has defeated these teams by an average of 10.2 points. Rhode Island is on a 7-0 run at home versus Brown with these wins coming by an average of 13.6 points. Lay the points.

7* Fiesta Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Oregon -7.5
The Key: The Ducks lost one game this season to a very good Stanford team that won the Rose Bowl. They defeated their other 11 opponents by at least 11 points. Oregon is the superior team. K-State will need the Ducks to cough up the football several times to have a chance, and I don't see it happening. Oregon has only committed 3 turnovers in its last 5 games while forcing 17. The fact it has forced at least 2 turnovers in each of its last 5 games is significant. That's because the Ducks are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Kelly when playing away from home after 5 consecutive games of forcing 2 or more turnovers. They are also 8-0 ATS in road/neutral field games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Ducks are on a 6-0 ATS run versus teams like K-State that commit 1 or less turnovers/game. They are also 6-0 ATS when playing away from home versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.25 yards or more per play over the last 2 seasons. They have defeated these teams by an average of 17.5 points. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Arkansas Little Rock pk
The Key: Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and hungry to end an 8-game losing streak to Western Kentucky, expect the Trojans to take care of business on their home floor tonight. Arkansas Little Rock is an impressive 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games versus a team with a winning S.U. record and 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Even more impressive is the fact that it is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. It has won these contests by an average of 3.3 points. Take the Trojans.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on New York Knicks pk
The Key: I'm on the Knicks as a pk but still like them laying a point, which is currently the line at some books, because the edge they have in terms of freshness. Plays on home favorites that are well rested - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days - and are up against an extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days - are 32-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. The "play on" team has won by an average of 12.7 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that NY is 23-10 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons and has won these games by an average of 6.4 points. The Knicks are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss and 30-11 ATS in their last 41 home games. The Spurs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Knicks have really made strides defensively under Woodson. As a result, they are even 8-0 ATS under his watch versus good passing teams like the Spurs that averaging 23 assists or more per game. They have defeated these teams by an average 8.7 points. Take the Knicks.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami (Florida) -5.5
The Key: Off back-to-back losses on a neutral floor, I expect Miami to bounce back in a big way at home where it is 5-0 on the season with an average winning margin of 15.6 points. The Hurricanes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games and an amazing 41-17-1 ATS in their last 59 non-conference games. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic 10 foes and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600. Lay the points.

7* Sugar Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville +14
The Key: Oddsmakers are asking too much of a Florida offense that finished the season ranked 103rd in the nation in total offense with 338.0 yards per game. A Louisville stop unit that ranks a respectable 24th in the country in total defense with 344.8 yards allowed per game should be up for the challenge. The Cardinals have never lost against the spread under coach Strong when matched up against a top-level team that carries a winning percentage greater than 75%. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus these foes and have defeated them by an average of 0.4 points. Take the points as Louisville keeps this one closer than the oddsmakers think.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hornets +10
The Key: Oddsmakers are undervaluing the Hornets here. New Orleans lost by 9 to Atlanta last night, but it has played the Pacers, Spurs, Warriors and Thunder to within 7 points recently. Plus, it has defeated the Rockets or lost to them by 7 points or less in 11 straight meetings. Now, that's an 11-0 trend I can get behind. New Orleans is 29-15 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons and 22-9 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

6* Missouri Valley Conference *CA$H COW* on Northern Iowa -6
The Key: The Panthers are tough as nails on their home floor and will be extremely motivated here after getting embarrassed at Wichita State in their last game. Northern Iowa is 6-0 at home this season and has won these games by an average of 19.7 points. It is 11-0 in its last 11 home games dating back to last season and has won these by an average of 15.5 points. The Panthers won last season's home meeting against Indiana State by 17 points as a 5.5-point favorite. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on 76ers +9
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and an embarrassing 13-point home loss to the Lakers last month, expect the 76ers to give the Lakers all they want and more tonight. The Lakers are a poor 11-22 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. They have won by only 3.3 points on average in these games. They are also 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU win and 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS win. It is also worth noting that the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets pk
The Key: Expect LA's 17-game winning streak to come to an end in Denver where the Nuggets are 9-1 this season. The Nuggets will be the fresher team having had 2 days to gear up for this one. I also expect them to be the hungrier team as they look to end a 3-game skid in the series. The Nuggets check in off a loss at Memphis but have been terrific in bounce back spots. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus teams that have a winning road record. Take Denver.

7* Rose Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Stanford -6
The Key: Take away Wisconsin's running game, and they don't have much to work with offensively. Stanford has the ability to do just that as it ranks 3rd in the country against the run with just 88.0 ypg allowed. The Cardinal are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Shaw in games played outside Palo Alto versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 yards per play or more. They have defeated these foes by an average of 9.6 points. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS under Shaw when playing away from home in the second half of the season. They have won these contests by an average of 16.7 points. The Badgers cruised in the Big Ten title game, racking up 70 points on Nebraska, but are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. They are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Lay the points.