Sports Picks & Predictions

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Pittsburgh Pirates +109 

The Key: The Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 games overall and closing the season strong.  I don’t believe they should be home dogs to the Reds today.  Trevor Williams has never lost to the Reds, going 5-0 with a 1.94 ERA in 8 lifetime starts against them.  Tyler Mahle is 2-12 with a 5.42 ERA in 24 starts this year for the Reds and 0-1 with a 9.26 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Mahle has never beaten the Pirates, going 0-3 (0-5 ML) with a 4.61 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Patriots/Bills AFC East *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +7.5 

The Key: The Bills finally have a team that can handle the Patriots and end this series domination that New England has held over them for years.  Josh Allen has improved by leaps and bounds this season, and he finally has some weapons.  The Bills have averaged 391 YPG thus far.  But what really gives them a chance to pull this upset is a defense that is just as good as last year after dominating last season.  The Bills are only allowing 15.7 PPG and 300 YPG.  The Patriots are really banged up on offense and have taken advantage of an easy schedule thus far against the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets, who are a combined 0-9.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who average 27 or more PPG, after allowing 14 or less points in 2 straight games are 23-5 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Buffalo. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Nevada -2 

The Key: Nevada is for sure one of my favorite plays of the entire 2019 season.  They host Hawaii Saturday night in Reno.  Game-time temps are expected to be in the 40’s as there’s a cold front moving through Nevada.  Hawaii has had upper 80’s temps all week, so they will be a little shell shocked for these 40-degree temps.  And this game will be played in altitude.  Nevada is 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with Hawaii, and 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall with an average cover of 10 PPG.  Their dominance of the Rainbow Warriors should continue here Saturday.  Take Nevada. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Marshall +4 

The Key: Cincinnati was exposed in its 42-0 road loss at Ohio State.  The Bearcats should not even be favored in this game.  Marshall’s only loss came on the road at Boise State as 14-point dog in a 7-point loss.  The Thundering Herd gave the Broncos all they could handle.  Luke Fickell is 2-11 ATS off a home win in all games he has coached.  Doc Holliday is 6-0 ATS against AAC opponents as the coach of Marshall.  The Bearcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Thundering Herd are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with a winning record.  Take Marshall. 

6* SEC *CA$H COW* on Ole Miss +38.5 

The Key: The Ole Miss Rebels have been a punching bag for the Alabama Crimson Tide the last 2 seasons.  But they are finally in a position to put up a fight in 2019.  They brought in Rich Rodriquez to be their offensive coordinator, and they also brought in Mike MacIntyre to be their defensive coordinator.  The Rebels could easily be 4-0 but they are just 2-2 right now, which has them undervalued.  They only lost by 5 at Memphis and by 8 at home to Cal.  They were stopped inside the 1 from forcing OT against Cal and put up over 500 yards against their vaunted defense.  Bets against favorites of 31.5 or more points off a home win, with a winning record on the season are 29-7 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Ole Miss. 

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Oakland A’s -1.5 (-123) 

The Key: The A’s can move closer to clinching a wild card with a win over the Mariners on Friday.  The Mariners have lost 4 straight and have scored a combined 2 runs in those 4 games, an average of just 0.5 RPG.  Mike Fiers is 15-4 with a 3.86 ERA in 32 starts for the A’s this year and should shut down the Mariners. Justus Sheffield is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in 6 starts for the Mariners, and 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 4 home starts this year.  Fiers is 14-0 against an AL team with an OBP of .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 years.  Fiers is 12-0 as a road favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 years.  The A’s are winning by 3.7 RPG in this situation.  Take Oakland on the Run Line. 

7* Duke/Virginia Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2.5 

The Key: We are getting the Virginia Tech Hokies cheap tonight.  They aren’t off to the most impressive start in the world, but they had a bye week to get things corrected and come out and take care of business at home here against Duke.  Turnovers have been a problem with 9 of them in 3 games, so look for that to be the focal point leading up to this game.  Virginia Tech has won 13 of its last 15 meetings with Duke and I expect that series domination to continue tonight.  The Hokies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Eagles/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +4.5 

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles need this win more.  They are 1-2 and have failed to cover the spread in all 3 games despite not once losing by more than 4 points.  The Packers are not only 3-0 straight up but also 3-0 against the spread.  I think oddsmakers are giving them too much respect tonight.  The Eagles get some key players back from injury, while the Packers have lost some key players to injury since Sunday. Bets against favorites who are off a home win in the first month of the season are 78-39 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Philadelphia. 

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-117) 

The Key: The Indians are now 1.5 games out of the wild card after losing yesterday.  Due to their advantage on the rubber in this one, they will bounce back in blowout fashion against the Chicago White Sox Thursday night.  Aaron Civale is 3-3 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 9 starts this year.  Dylan Cease is 4-7 with a 5.67 ERA in 14 starts, and 2-4 with a 6.55 ERA in 7 home starts.  The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 against a right-handed starter.  Cleveland is 40-11 in its last 51 against a team with a losing record.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line. 

7* AL East Game of the Year on Tampa Bay Rays -142 

The Key: That Tampa Bay Rays are the 2nd wild card right now, but 0.5 games behind the A’s and 0.5 games ahead of the Indians.  They need to keep winning just to get into the postseason.  The Yankees have already clinched the division and aren’t likely to catch the Astros for the top seed.  They don’t need wins right now, and it’s showing.  The Yankees are just 5-5 in their last 10 games overall, while the Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 contests.  The Rays have the clear advantage on the rubber tonight with Charlie Morton, who is 15-6 with a 3.15 ERA in 32 starts, and 7-3 with a 2.75 ERA in 16 home starts.  Jonathan Loaisiga is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in 3 starts for the Yankees.  The Yankees are 4-19 as a road dog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 years.  New York is 0-4 in Loaisiga’s last 4 starts.  The Rays are 6-0 in Morton’s last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record.  Take Tampa Bay. 

7* Bears/Redskins NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -3.5 

The Key: The Bears are head and shoulders the better team in this matchup with the Washington Redskins Monday Night.  They should be more than 3.5-point favorites in this game.  The Bears haven’t gotten their offense going yet, but they will here against a Redskins defense that has yielded 31.5 PPG and 455 YPG this season.  And the Bears still have an elite defense after leading the league in basically every major defensive category last year.  Chicago is giving up just 12 PPG and 292.5 YPG this year.  Not to mention, the Redskins are giving up 6.8 YPP, while the Bears are yielding just 4.6 YPP.  The Bears will shutdown this suspect Washington offense, and Mitchell Trubisky will finally make some plays for the Bears and lead them to a big road win to get to 2-1 on the season while dropping the Redskins to 0-3 in the process.  Take Chicago. 

6* Monday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Marlins/Mets UNDER 8.5 

The Key: I can’t see the Marlins and Mets being able to do much offensively in this game.  Steven Matz is 7-1 with a 1.97 ERA in 13 home starts for the Mets this year.  Caleb Smith has been the Marlins’ best starter, going 9-10 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 26 starts.  Smith is 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against the Mets.  Matz is 4-3 with a 2.83 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against the Marlins.  The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Mets last 8 games overall.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Matz’s last 9 starts against the Marlins.  Take the UNDER. 

7* AFC Game of the Month on New York Jets +23 

The Key: Only 5 teams in the last 30 years have been favored by more than 3 touchdowns in the NFL.  This week there are 2 of those teams.  Those 3 TD favorites have not done well, and I think the Jets are going to stay within the number here against the Patriots.  The Patriots are the definition of overvalued right now after covering the spread by a combined 49.5 points in their first 2 games against the Steelers and Dolphins.  This is a division game against the Jets, so there is familiarity.  That favors the Jets to keep this game closer than expected.  And I like what I saw from Luke Falk on Monday Night Football against the Browns.  Falk was 20 of 25 passing for 198 yards in relief of an injured Trevor Siemian.  Now that he’s preparing to be the starter all week he should be comfortable.  Le’Veon Bell showed he’s still a workhorse with 68 rushing yards and 10 receptions for 61 yards in the loss.  Bets against favorites who are off 2 straight wins by 21 points or more against a team that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take New York. 

6* Sunday NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami Dolphins +23 

The Key: Only 5 teams in the last 30 years have been favored by more than 3 touchdowns in the NFL.  This week there are 2 of those teams.  Those 3 TD favorites have not done well, and I think the Dolphins are going to stay within the number here against the Cowboys.  The Dolphins have played 2 of the best teams in the NFL both at home in the Ravens and Patriots.  I actually think they will be a better road bet than a home bet this season.  There’s so much negativity in Miami media right now that it can only do them good to get on the road and get away from it.  I have a feeling the Cowboys aren’t going to show up with the focus they need to put Miami away by more than 3 touchdowns.  They’ve also heard the negativity, and they are overvalued coming in off 2 straight division wins over the Giants and Redskins, 2 of the worst teams in the NFL.  Jason Garrett is 18-33 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Garrett is 7-17 ATS in home games off a division game as the coach of Dallas.  Bets against home favorites a good offensive team from last year averaging 5.4 YPP or more, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-11 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Miami. 

6* Ravens/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Baltimore +7 

The Key: It’s expected to be a sloppy field in Kansas City Sunday with rain in the forecast Friday, Saturday and Sunday.  That favors the better running team, which is clearly the Ravens.  They are averaging 223 rushing yards per game and 5.7 YPC thus far in 2019.  The Ravens rushed for 198 yards on 39 carries against the Chiefs last year in their 24-27 loss at Arrowhead Stadium.  They want revenge from that defeat.  The Ravens are a much more dynamic offensive team this year as Lamar Jackson has already thrown 7 touchdown passes, and he is fitting the ball into tight windows when he needs to.  New coordinator Greg Roman has experience with these dual-threat QB’s as he guided Colin Kaepernick nearly to a Super Bowl in San Francisco and Tyrod Taylor to the playoffs in Buffalo.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against an opponent that’s off a home win are 34-10 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Baltimore. 

6* WMU/Syracuse NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Western Michigan +5.5 

The Key: This is a clear flat spot for the Syracuse Orange.  They are coming off back-to-back blowout losses to Maryland (by 43) and Clemson (by 35).  After facing Clemson last week in a big night game, there’s no way they will get up for Western Michigan this week.  Syracuse is one of the most overrated teams in the country as you can see with those 2 blowout losses.  Western Michigan has been impressive and may be the best team in the MAC.  Their only loss came on the road against Michigan State, and they beat Monmouth by 35 and Georgia State by 47 at home.  That’s the same Georgia State team that upset Tennessee on the road earlier this year.  It’s a veteran WMU bunch that returned 17 starters this year.  Bets against home favorites after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in 2 straight games are 35-8 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  WMU is rushing for 208 YPG and 5.8 YPC this season, and Syracuse is giving up 190 YPG and 5.3 YPC this year.  Take Western Michigan. 

6* ULM/Iowa State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Louisiana-Monroe +19 

The Key: Iowa State is deflated following its 17-18 home loss to rival Iowa in the Cy-Hawk series last week.  The Cyclones have their Big 12 opener on deck next week against Baylor.  That makes this a sandwich game for them.  The Cyclones won’t be fully up for this game against Louisiana-Monroe.  It’s a good spot for the Warhawks as they are coming off a bye week following a 44-45 (OT) loss at Florida State.  That game showed their potential as they nearly upset the Seminoles as 23-point road dogs.  And they know they have what it takes to compete with Iowa State now.  I think the field conditions at Iowa State will favor the underdog here as it’s supposed to be sloppy with rain in the forecast the next several days leading up to the game.  We saw last year Iowa State nearly lose to Drake as more than a 40-point favorite in sloppy conditions.  Take Louisiana-Monroe. 

7* Cal/Ole Miss ESPNU *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -2.5 

The Key: Ole Miss wants revenge from a 16-27 upset loss at Cal 2 years ago.  Now they get Cal at home this time around in an early start game that will be a 9:00 AM body clock game for the Golden Bears.  I think Cal players will still feel sleepy by the time this game starts, and they won’t be ready for the men among boys on the other sideline.  I’ll almost always side with SEC over Pac-12, especially when it’s two middle of the road teams here like Cal and Ole Miss.  The Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country defensively this season, holding Memphis to just 15 points on the road in the opener.  And the Rebels are clearly the better team offensively.  Take Ole Miss. 

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-160) 

The Key: The Dodgers have a huge advantage over the Rockies on the rubber tonight.  Ace Clayton Kershaw is 14-5 with a 3.10 ERA in 26 starts this year, and 9-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 15 home starts.  Kershaw is 22-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 41 lifetime starts against the Rockies.  Peter Lambert is 3-6 with a 6.98 ERA in 18 starts for Colorado, and 1-1 with a 9.25 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Lambert is 0-1 with an 11.11 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against the Dodgers.  The Rockies are 3-13 in Lambert’s last 16 starts, and 0-7 in his last 7 road starts.  The Dodgers are 92-32 in Kershaw’s last 124 starts, and 45-12 in his last 57 home starts.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* Utah/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -3.5 

The Key: The Utah Utes are a legit Pac-12 title contender this season.  This is a huge game for them to go on the road and handle their business against USC.  These teams already have a common opponent in BYU.  Utah won at BYU 30-12, while USC lost at BYU 27-30.  Clay Helton just has not been able to deliver in this underdog role.  Helton is 1-12 SU & 2-11 ATS as an underdog at USC with 11 losses by double-digits.  The 12 losses have come by an average of 18.8 PPG.  Take Utah. 

7* Titans/Jaguars AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville +2 

The Key: Gardner Minshew has been playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL thus far.  He has completed 77.6% of his passes and is averaging 8.4 YPA this season.  The Jaguars finally get a break on the schedule here with the Titans coming to town after facing the Chiefs at home and Texans on the road.  This is a game they must win to stay in the playoff hunt as they cannot afford to fall to 0-3.  Take Jacksonville. 

6* Houston/Tulane AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulane -4.5 

The Key: Tulane looks like a real contender in the AAC.  They have an improved offense in their new spread option look, and their defense is one of the best int he conference.  Tulane is averaging 35.3 PPG and giving up just 14.7 PPG this year.  And that includes games against two very good teams in Auburn and FIU.  Houston has a leaky defense, and that is going to be the difference in this game.  And D’Eriq King doesn’t look as good in Dana Holgorsen’s offense as he did in their offense last year.  Tulane is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 home games off a win by 28 points or more.  The Green Wave are 7-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 years.  Take Tulane. 

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-170) 

The Key: The Indians are 17-1 against the Tigers this season with 16 of those 17 wins coming by multiple runs.  Expect more of the same here thanks to their advantage on the rubber tonight.  Mike Clevinger is 11-3 with a 2.68 ERA in 18 starts this year, and 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA in 9 home starts.  Clevinger is 7-2 with a 1.88 ERA in 10 lifetime starts against the Tigers, and 3-0 with a 0.45 ERA in his last 3 starts against them with only one run yielded in 20 innings.  Daniel Norris is 0-1 with a 7.81 ERA in 2 road starts at Cleveland this year.  Norris is 2-5 with a. 4.65 ERA in 16 road starts this season.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-150) 

The Key: The Cleveland Indians are now 16-1 against the Detroit Tigers this season.  They have won 15 straight over the Tigers with all 15 wins coming by at least 2 runs.  The Indians have a huge advantage on the rubber over the Tigers today.  Aaron Civale is 3-3 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 8 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 1.06 ERA in 3 home starts.  Civale is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in 2 starts against the Tigers this year.  Spencer Turnbull is 3-15 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 27 starts for the Tigers, including 0-2 with an 11.11 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Turnbull has never beaten the Indians, going 0-5 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line. 

7* Browns/Jets AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45.5 

The Key: The Jets are going to try to shorten this game by giving the ball to Le’Veon Bell as much as possible.  They brought him in to be their workhorse, and now with Sam Darnold out, they will ride him.  Trevor Siemian will be making short throws and just trying not to turn the ball over.  They will have a conservative game plan, just as they did last week in their 16-17 home loss to the Bills that saw only 33 combined points.  The Jets also have a nice advantage defensively as defensive coordinator Greg Williams held the same position with the Browns last year and knows Freddie Kitchens’ offense.  The Browns have a terrible offensive line, and the Jets should be able to exploit it by bringing pressure all game long.  All of these factors favor a low scoring game.  Not to mention UNDERS are 12-3 this week as offenses just aren’t clicking this early in the season.  Cleveland is 10-2 UNDER after going over the total in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.  Bets on the UNDER on any team against the total off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that is off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 30-9 over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Browns last 10 games off a double-digit home loss.  Take the UNDER. 

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+115) 

The Key: The Chicago Cubs have reeled off 4 straight wins to pull within 2 games of the Cardinals for 1st place in the NL Central.  They just scored a total of 47 runs in their 3-game sweep of the Pirates over the weekend.  To say they are clicking right now offensively would be an understatement.  I’ll back them on the Run Line today at home against the Cincinnati Reds.  Cole Hamels is 3-1 with a 2.66 ERA in 12 home starts this year.  Hamels is 12-2 with a 2.06 ERA in 20 lifetime starts against the Reds, and his teams are 18-2 in those starts.  Kevin Gausman is 3-7 with a 6.19 ERA in 16 starts this year and 1-4 with a 6.82 ERA in 7 road starts.  Gausman is 0-1 with a 12.38 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against the Cubs.  Take Chicago on the Run Line. 

7* Eagles/Falcons NFC *BAILOUT* on Atlanta +2 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons did themselves in last week by committing 3 turnovers against the Vikings.  They just couldn’t get out of their own way.  The final stats outside the turnovers were actually in their favor.  They had 345 total yards and held the Vikings to just 269 total yards.  Now back home, look for the Falcons to play with a sense of urgency to avoid falling to 0-2.  They will be much sharper, and you’ll see their offense live up to their potential, which is massive with all the weapons they have.  The Eagles gave up 27 points and 398 total yards to a bad Redskins offense last week.  Matt Ryan is 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in home openers since coming into the league.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Cardinals/Ravens Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Arizona +13 

The Key: This line was Baltimore -9.5 last week.  But the betting public is now overreacting to the Ravens’ blowout of the league-worst Dolphins last week.  So this line has moved up to the point where there’s definitely value on the Cardinals.  I liked seeing what Kyler Murray could do in the 2nd half last week against the Lions in leading the Cardinals back from an 18-point deficit.  They went hurry up and will do more of the same this week to utilize Murray’s strengths and try and tire out Baltimore’s defense.  This Baltimore defense isn’t nearly as good as it was last year with all the studs they lost in free agency.  And they are without 2 starting cornerbacks due to injury, which is a recipe for disaster against an Arizona offense that likes to spread out the opposition.  Lamar Jackson won’t be nearly as good as he was in Week 1 as he is still limited as a passer, which will make it hard for the Ravens to win by margin.  Take Arizona. 

6* Jaguars/Texans AFC South *CA$H COW* on Jacksonville +9.5 

The Key: This line was Texans -3 last week.  Then Nick Foles got hurt and the Jaguars lost by 14 at home to the Chiefs.  I can forgive them for that loss.  But the betting public doesn’t seem to be forgiving them.  And they aren’t seeming to give backup QB Gardner Minshew any credit for going 22 for 25 passing against the Chiefs for 275 yards.  It was as good a performance as I’ve seen from a backup QB coming in for an injured starter in a long time.  He’ll have plenty of success against a bad Houston defense that gave up over 500 yards to the Saints last week.  The Jaguars will be much better defensively this week than they were against the Chiefs and should be able to get to Deshaun Watson, who was sacked more than any QB in the NFL last year and 6 times in Week 1.  Take Jacksonville. 

6* AL West *CA$H COW* on Oakland A’s -119 

The Key: The Oakland A’s have won 4 straight and 9 of their last 11 as they try and hold onto a wild card spot in the American League.  They are hitting the cover off the ball right now with 43 runs scored in their last 4 games. Not even Mike Minor will slow them down today.  I think we’re getting the A’s pretty cheap here.  Mike Fiers is 14-4 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 30 starts this year and has been one of the most profitable pitchers in baseball.  Fiers is 11-0 against an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 years.  The A’s are 8-0 in Fiers’ last 8 starts against a team with a losing record.  The Rangers are 7-20 in their last 27 against a team with a winning record.  Texas is 1-7 in Minor’s last 8 home starts against a team with a winning record.  Take Oakland. 

6* TCU/Purdue NCAAF *CA$H COW* on TCU -1 

The Key: Purdue QB Elijah Sindelar is leading the nation in passing through 2 games.  He suffered a concussion against Vanderbilt and is questionable to play this week.  Even if he goes, he won’t be 100%.  You can bet TCU head coach Gary Patterson will have his team ready for Purdue’s spread system.  The Horned Frogs are coming off a bye week and consistently have one of the best defenses in the Big 12.  They see many offenses in the Big 12 that are similar to Purdue, which also helps.  Purdue is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.  Take TCU. 

6* FSU/Virginia ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia -7 

The Key: Fans of the Virginia Cavaliers are excited about this team.  They are coming off an 8-5 season in which they nearly won the Coastal.  And they have 14 starters back from that squad including QB Perkins, who is probably the 2nd-best QB in the ACC.  This is a night game in Charlottesville which will mean that fans will be more boisterous than normal, especially with a program the caliber of Florida State coming to town.  But these aren’t the same old Seminoles.  They went 5-7 last year and are fortunate to not be 0-2 this year.  They lost to Boise State at home and needed overtime to be Louisiana Monroe as a 23-point favorite.  The Seminoles have one of the worst defenses in the country in allowing 40 PPG and 520 YPG.  Virginia has one of the best defenses in the country giving up 15.5 PPG and 228 YPG.  Willie Taggart is 0-7 ATS off a home games as the coach of the Seminoles.  Take Virginia. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on Texas State/SMU OVER 62 

The Key: We have two offensive minds going at it here in Jake Spavital of Texas State and Sonny Dykes of SMU.  This should be a shootout.  Dykes got a huge transfer in Shane Buechele from Texas and he is off to a great start this season.  SMU’s offense is averaging 43.0 PPG and 505 YPG in its first 2 victories over a couple of quality Arkansas State and North Texas teams.  Texas State should finally get its offense going after being held down by 2 very good defenses in Texas A&M and Wyoming.  SMU’s defense is sub par to say the least in allowing 28.5 PPG and 405 YPG thus far.  Dykes is 15-5 OVER as a home favorite lifetime as a head coach.  The OVER is 4-0 in Mustangs last 4 non-conference games.  Take the OVER. 

6* Southern Miss/Troy NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Troy -2.5 

The Key: Troy had a bye last week following its 43-14 win over Campbell in the opener.  Now they have 2 weeks to get ready for Southern Miss.  The Eagles are coming off a 15-38 loss at Mississippi State and it will be hard for them to be as hungry for this game as they were with that opportunity to face an SEC school.  It was also a physical game that would have taken a lot out of them.  Troy is one of the best Sun Belt programs there is as they are in title contention almost every year.  And they have 13 starters back for new head coach Chip Lindsey.  The Trojans are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win.  Troy is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Take Troy. 

7* Iowa/Iowa State Rivalry Game of the Year on Iowa State +1.5 

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones had a bye week to get ready for Iowa.  It’s exactly what they needed as they were humbled in needing OT to beat UNI, so it should have been a productive two weeks of practice.  I think this line is an overreaction to that UNI win.  Iowa State outgained Northern Iowa by 201 yards as that was a misleading final.  Iowa has played Miami Ohio and Rutgers, two terrible teams and is getting too much credit for blowing out both.  Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a home dog.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Washington State/Houston NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Houston +9.5 

The Key: No team has played an easier schedule than Washington State.  The Cougars are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for their blowout wins over New Mexico State and Northern Colorado.  This team lost a lot of talent from last year and now they step up in class here against Houston.  This is a Houston team that is battle tested with their 31-49 loss to Oklahoma in the opener.  They’ll be ready for Washington State, and this is basically a home game for them played at the Texans’ stadium in Houston.  D’Eriq King is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and will be ready to match Mike Leach and company score for score.  Take Houston. 

7* Bucs/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -6.5

The Key: Jameis Winston has now lost 9 straight road starts as the quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Winston was awful in his first start under Bruce Arians, who was supposed to be his savior.  He threw 3 interceptions and 2 of them were returned for touchdowns in their 17-31 home loss to the 49ers.  Cam Newton has been great at home as they had won 10 straight home games with him under center before getting injured last year with his shoulder.  He is back healthy this year and coming off a decent start against the Rams in a tough 27-30 loss.  I trust Newton and the Panthers to bounce back at home tonight.  The Panthers beat the Bucs 42-28 at home last year.  They outgained the Bucs by 106 yards in that game and outgained them by 129 yards in a fluky losing effort in Tampa Bay last year.  Ron Rivera is 11-3 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of the Panthers.  Take Carolina. 

6* Thursday MLB *CA$H COW* on Toronto Blue Jays +141 

The Key: The Boston Red Sox are starting to realize that they have no shot of making the postseason, and they are playing like it.  The Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 games overall.  They were held to 1, 0 and 0 runs in 3 of the losses and have only scored a combined 9 runs in those 5 games.  Jhoulys Chacin is 3-10 with a 5.66 ERA in 20 starts this season, 1-9 with a 7.25 ERA in 10 road starts, and 0-1 with an 11.05 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Clay Buchholz is 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA in 3 home starts this year, and 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA in his last 3 starts for the Blue Jays.  Take Toronto. 

7* AL Game of the Month on Cleveland Indians -130 

The Key: The Cleveland Indians are fighting for a wild card in the American League.  There is only 2 games separating 3 teams fighting for 2 spots with the Rays and A’s also in the mix.  The Indians have handled their business against the Angels winning 6-2 and 8-0 in the first two games of this series, and they should sweep it tonight.  The Angels are 4-14 in their last 18 games overall, and they’ve been playing with Mike Trout of late due to injury.  Cleveland starter Adam Plutko is 6-4 with a 4.16 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 16 starts this year.  Los Angeles starter Dillon Peters is 2-2 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 8 starts.  The Indians are 7-1 in Plutko’s last 8 starts against a team with a losing record.  The Indians are 23-4 in the last 27 meetings.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Interleague Game of the Week on Minnesota Twins -144 

The Key: The Minnesota Twins are hungry to win the AL Central.  The Washington Nationals are kind of stuck in no man’s land right now as they are likely to get the 1st wild card, but they can’t win the division.  The Nationals have lost 4 of their last 5 games coming in.  Jose Berrios is the better starter in this matchup with a 3.78 ERA in 28 starts this year, and a 3.62 ERA in 12 home starts.  Anibal Sanchez has a 4.11 ERA in 26 starts for the Nationals.  He gave up 7 runs and 3 homers in 5 innings of a 4-8 loss to the Mets in his last turn.  The Twins are 51-17 in their last 68 games against a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30.  The Twins are 40-16 in their last 56 games off a loss.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Broncos/Raiders ESPN *BAILOUT* on Oakland +2.5 

The Key: This line indicates that the Broncos would be roughly 5.5-point favorites on a neutral field.  I’m not buying it, and I think these are two evenly matched teams this year.  The Broncos have the better defense, but the Raiders clearly have the better offense, and it’s not really even close.  Oakland should have beaten Denver in each of the last 3 meetings.  They won at home 21-14 in 2017 and 27-14 in 2018, including an upset win as a home dog last year.  And they only lost 19-20 in Denver as 5.5-point underdogs last year.  They have had the Broncos’ number.  Now the Raiders should be much improved in Year 2 under Gruden, while the Broncos are breaking in a new head coach in Vic Fangio.  The Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 division games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Oakland. 

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago Cubs -140 

The Key: The Cubs are desperately trying to hang on to the 2nd wild card spot in the National League.  They have 3 teams within 2 games of them.  They need this series in San Diego, and it starts with Game 1 tonight.  The Cubs should win with ease thanks to their advantage on the rubber.  Kyle Hendricks is 9-9 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 26 starts this year.  Hendricks is 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts against the Padres.  Cal Quantrill is 0-3 with an 11.15 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  The Padres are 2-10 in their last 12 games against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.  The Padres are 8-20 in their last 28 against a team with a winning record.  The Cubs are 8-3 in their last 11 meetings in San Diego.  Take Chicago. 

7* Steelers/Patriots NBC *BAILOUT* on Pittsburgh +6 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have played the Patriots tough in their 2 meetings over the last 2 seasons.  They only lost 24-27 in fluky fashion in 2017.  They came back with a 17-10 home win over the Patriots last year.  I think this game is likely to be decided by a field goal, so the price is right to pull the trigger on the Steelers.  Their offense is loaded and their defense is as good as it has been in years.  The Patriots always seem to start slow out of the gate.  They won’t be a juggernaut offensively early as they try and figure out how to make due without Rob Gronkowski.  Mike Tomlin is 30-19 ATS as a dog as the coach of the Steelers.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-130) 

The Key: Jack Flaherty is one of the best starters in baseball.  He is 9-7 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.60 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  But he has been dominant for months now.  Flaherty is 5-2 with a 0.90 ERA in his last 11 starts, yielding just 7 earned runs in 70 1/3 innings.  James Marvel will be making his major league debut for the Pirates today and it won’t go well for him against his hot Cardinals team.  Flaherty is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 6 lifetime starts against Pittsburgh.  The Cardinals are 36-17 in their last 53 games overall.  The Pirates are 8-18 in their last 26 home games.  Take St. Louis on the Run Line. 

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Chiefs/Jaguars UNDER 51 

The Key: The Jaguars have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They gave up just 13.9 PPG at home last year and didn’t once allow more than 20 points at home.  The Chiefs have an improved defense with all the personnel changes they made in the offseason.  I don’t expect both offenses to be hitting on all cylinders in Week 1.  The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 30-14 last year for 44 combined points.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 home games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Jaguars last 8 games on grass.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Titans/Browns AFC *CA$H COW* on Cleveland -5.5 

The Key: The Cleveland Browns will have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season with Mayfield, Beckham, Landry, Chubb and Njoku leading the way.  The Titans didn’t even score 20 PPG last year, and I don’t think they made any improvements offensively in the offseason.  I think these defenses are a wash as they are both similarly talented.  Cleveland’s offense will be the difference, plus their tremendous home-field advantage, which saw them go 5-2-1 at home last year.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Western Michigan/Michigan State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Western Michigan +16 

The Key: Western Michigan is probably the class of the MAC this season.  They returned 17 starters and are coming off a 48-13 trouncing of Monmouth in the opener.  Michigan State looks to have the same offensive struggles they had last year as they only beat Tulsa 28-7 as 23.5-point favorites.  They only had 303 total yards against a bad Tulsa defense.  Not being able to score consistently is going to make it difficult for the Spartans to cover this lofty number Saturday against a much better team than Tulsa.  The Spartans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.  The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against Big Ten teams.  Take Western Michigan. 

6* NL Central *CA$H COW* on St. Louis Cardinals -140 

The Key: The Cardinals are coming off a rare loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates in which they let the game get away from them late.  The Cardinals are still 21-7 in their last 28 games overall and should bounce back today with a win.  Steven Brault is 0-0 with a 7.94 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in 4 previous starts against the Cardinals.  Adam Wainwright is 17-7 with a 3.99 ERA in 37 previous starts against the Pirates.  The Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss.  St. Louis is 23-5 in Wainwright’s last 28 Saturday starts.  The Cardinals are 52-16 in Wainwright’s last 68 starts against a team with a losing record.  Take St. Louis. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Texas State +7.5 

The Key: The Texas State Bobcats should be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They brought back 19 starters and nabbed an offensive-minded head coach in Jake Spavital and he brought some great coordinators with him.  It didn’t show against Texas A&M in the opener as they lost 7-41 as 34-point dogs, but that’s expected against a team the caliber of the Aggies.  Wyoming is coming off a misleading 37-31 upset of Missouri, setting the Cowboys up for a big letdown spot.  They gave up 537 yards and were outgained by 148 yards in that game.  Missouri twice turned it over going into the end zone, and also gave up another turnover for a score.  Their 3 turnovers were essentially a 24-point swing.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters and the QB returning in the first month of the season are 22-3 ATS since 1992.  Take Texas State. 

6* North Texas/SMU NCAAF *CA$H COW* on SMU -3 

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are on a mission to make a bowl game this year after just missing out with a 5-7 record last year.  They are off to a good start with their 37-30 upset road win over a very good Arkansas State program last week.  This is a Mustangs team that returned 16 starters and added Texas transfer Shane Buechele at quarterback, massively upgrading the position.  North Texas gave up 31 points to Abilene Christian last week and it’s clear their defense isn’t very good with just 5 returning starters, so the Mustangs should be able to score at will.  Home field advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  SMU won 54-32 at home against North Texas in 2017.  This is a short number for them to have to cover at home Saturday.  North Texas is 0-7 ATS after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  The Mean Green are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take SMU. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-136) 

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games overall and have scored a total of 28 runs in their last 3 games.  They are now 55-18 at home this season and winning by 2.1 RPG on average.  The Giants are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall and have fallen out of playoff contention.  Clayton Kershaw is 9-1 with a 2.62 ERA in 14 home starts this year.  Kershaw is 23-11 with a 1.66 ERA in 46 lifetime starts against the Giants.  The Dodgers are 45-11 in Kershaw’s last 56 home starts.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

6* Wake Forest/Rice NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Rice +19.5 

The Key: Rice had a great showing in Week 1 and only lost on a last minute touchdown to Army 14-7 as more than three touchdown underdogs.  I like what the new head coach from Stanford is doing with this team, upgrading the offensive line and becoming more physical.  Wake Forest is coming off a last-second win over a Utah State team that lost almost everyone from last year.  The Demon Deacons have their conference opener against UNC on deck and may not be fully focused for this game.  That’s especially the case after blowing out Rice at home last year.  They may not be taking this game serious enough.  Wake Forest is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  Rice is 45-25 ATS in its last 70 games as a home underdog.  Take Rice. 

7* Packers/Bears NBC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 46.5 

The Key: The Bears will once again have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They didn’t lose much from a unit that gave up just 17.6 PPG last year.  The Packers should be improved defensively this season as they finally spent some money in free agency and loaded up in the early rounds of the draft.  But the Packers could struggle early offensively as they have put in a new system under Matt LeFleur.  Aaron Rodgers didn’t play at all in the preseason and should be rusty.  The Bears were improved offensively last year, but they are still no juggernaut on that side of the ball.  They play to their strengths, which is their defense.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Packers last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games overall.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Cubs/Brewers NL Central *CA$H COW* on Chicago -112 

The Key: The Cubs have a big advantage on the rubber tonight over the Brewers.  Jose Quintana is 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA in his last 3 starts and 4-3 with a 3.88 ERA in 12 road starts this year.  Chase Anderson is 5-4 with a 4.58 ERA in 22 starts, but 1-2 with an 11.92 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Quintana is 8-4 with a 2.65 ERA in 16 lifetime starts against the Brewers.  Anderson yielded 5 runs and 2 homers in 4 innings of a 1-7 loss to the Cubs on August 30th in his last start.  The Cubs are 9-2 in Quintana’s last 11 starts.  The Cubs are 7-0 in Quintana’s last 7 starts against NL Central teams.  The Cubs are 5-1 in Quintana’s last 6 road starts against the Brewers.  Take Chicago. 

7* NL West Game of the Week on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-144) 

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored 21 runs in the first 2 games of this series with the Rockies while covering the Run Line both times.  Expect more of the same tonight thanks to their advantage on the mound once again in this contest.  Hyun-Jin Ryu is the favorite to win the Cy Young as he’s 12-5 with a 2.46 ERA in 25 starts, including 9-1 with a 1.54 ERA in 12 home starts.  Antonio Senzatela is 8-9 with a 6.95 ERA in 20 starts for the Rockies, including 0-3 with a 20.25 ERA in his last 3 starts while yielding 18 earned runs in 8 innings.  The Dodgers are 54-18 at home this season and winning by 2.1 RPG.  Ryu is 21-3 as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last 3 years with the Dodgers winning by 2.8 RPG.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-146) 

The Key: The Dodgers just hung 16 runs on the Rockies yesterday as Colorado had to throw a position player to the mound at the end of the game.  Now the Dodgers have another big advantage over the Rockies on the rubber tonight.  Julio Urias is 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 6 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Chi Chi Gonzalez is 0-5 with a 7.57 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 8 starts this year, including 0-2 with an 11.45 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Colorado is 2-15 in road games off a loss by 4 runs or more while losing by 3.6 RPG.  The Dodgers are 53-18 at home this season.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-150) 

The Key: Big advantage for the Dodgers on the rubber tonight over the Rockies.  Walker Buehler is 11-3 with a 3.03 ERA in 25 starts this year.  He is 5-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 12 home starts as well.  Buehler is 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA in 9 lifetime starts against the Rockies.  Peter Lambert is 2-5 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 15 starts for the Rockies this year.  Lambert sports a 7.45 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts against the Dodgers, both of which have come this season.  The Dodgers are 52-18 at home this year while winning by 2.1 RPG on average.  Colorado is 2-14 in road games off a loss by 4 runs or more this year, losing by 3.4 RPG.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-138) 

The Key: The Washington Nationals are the hottest team in baseball.  They’ve been playing well for months, but in particular of late as they are 15-3 in their last 18 games overall with 12 of those wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Expect more of the same today with Pat Corbin getting the ball.  Corbin is 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 13 home starts this year.  Corbin is 3-1 with a 3.15 ERA in 9 lifetime starts against Miami, including 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA in 3 starts against the Marlins in 2019, yielding only 2 earned runs in 23 innings.  Caleb Smith is coming off 2 terrible starts in a row where he yielded 10 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings.  Smith is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against the Nationals.  Take Washington on the Run Line. 

7* Fresno State/USC ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -13.5 

The Key: The USC Trojans come into the 2019 season flying under the radar for the first time in a long time.  That’s because they didn’t even make a bowl game last year with a 5-7 record.  But with the talent they recruit, the Trojans won’t be down for long.  They had won double-digit games in the previous two seasons under Clay Helton.  Fresno State has been a good story the last few years, but they lose a ton of talent from those teams.  They only have 9 starters back and are the 2nd-least experienced team in the country this year. USC comes in hungry to get their season off on solid footing and won’t be taking the Bulldogs lightly.  Take USC. 

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-143) 

The Key: The Washington Nationals are 7-1 in their last 8 games overall and have won 6 of those contests by 2 runs or more.  Stephen Strasburg is clearly the better starter in this matchup.  He is 15-5 with a 3.63 ERA in 27 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Strasburg is 20-7 with a 2.86 ERA in 34 lifetime starts against the Marlins.  Pablo Lopez is 2-4 with a 6.81 ERA in 7 road starts this year for the Marlins.  Lopez is 0-1 with an 8.16 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against the Nationals.  Miami is 0-13 in August road games this year and losing by 3.4 RPG on average.  Take Washington on the Run Line. 

6* AL West *CA$H COW* on Texas Rangers -107 

The Key: The Texas Rangers are cheap at home tonight.  They host the Seattle Mariners, who are 28-38 on the road this year, while the Rangers are 38-28 at home.  Kolby Alred is a nice young talent who is 2-0 with a 4.64 ERA in 4 starts with 23 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings.  Marco Gonzalez is 14-10 with a 4.17 ERA in 28 starts for the Mariners this year.  Gonzalez has yielded 8 runs in 11 innings in his last 2 starts against Texas this year.  The Mariners are 9-27 in their last 36 road games against a team with a winning home record.  The Rangers are 8-3 in their last 11 home meetings with the Mariners.  Take Texas. 

7* Wisconsin/USF ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -10 

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers are coming off a down year, which for them is 8-5.  They had won 10 or more games in 4 straight years prior.  And they should get back to being their dominant selves this year.  It starts with Week 1 against South Florida, which went 7-6 last year.  The Bulls won their first 7 games against weak competition, then lost their final 6 when they took a step up in class.  This is a step up in class for them as well.  Bets on road favorites of 10 to 21 points who were an excellent rushing team last season averaging 5.25 YPC or more are 26-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Wisconsin. 

6* Padres/Giants MLB *BAILOUT* on San Francisco +114 

The Key: The Giants desperately need to get hot here over the last month if they want to make the postseason.  They did a good job of making a run prior to the trade deadline to put themselves in position.  Dereck Rodriquez sports a 4.43 ERA in his 4 home starts this year.  Rodriquez is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against the Padres.  Chris Paddack is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in his last 3 starts as he is struggling down the stretch in his first full season as a starter.  The Giants had yesterday off, while the Padres played the Dodgers yesterday, so the home team has a rest advantage also.  The Padres are 2-7 in Paddack’s last 9 road starts.  The Giants are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Giants/Patriots NFLX *CA$H COW* on New York +3 

7* UCLA/Cincinnati ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati -2 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats went on the road and beat UCLA 26-17 last year as 14-point underdogs.  Now they get them at home in the rematch and it should be more of the same.  This is a Cincinnati team that won 11 games last year and has 14 starters back from that squad, including QB Desmond Ridder and RB Michael Warren, who rushed for 1,329 yards and 19 touchdowns last year.  The Bearcats went 6-0 at home last season and outscored opponents by 30.0 PPG.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-117) 

The Key: The Cleveland Indians are 3.5 games of the Twins in the AL Central.  They need to continue their dominance of the Tigers to close the gap.  They did just that yesterday with a 10-1 victory.  They are now 53-17 in the last 70 meetings, including 13-1 in 14 meetings with the Tigers this season.  This should be a blood bath considering the advantage the Indians have on the rubber.  Aaron Civale sports a 1.82 ERA in 5 starts this year.  Jordan Zimmerman sports an 8.18 ERA in 7 home stats.  Zimmerman has never beaten the Indians, going 0-6 with a 10.68 ERA in 8 lifetime starts against them.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line. 

7* AL Central Game of the Month on Cleveland Indians -148 

The Key: The Cleveland Indians are 3.5 games back of the Twins in the AL Central.  They need to continue their dominance of the Tigers to close the gap.  The Indians are 52-17 in the last 69 meetings, including 12-1 in 13 meetings with the Tigers this season.  Adam Plutko is 5-3 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 13 starts this year.  Spencer Turnbull is 3-12 with a 4.05 ERA in 23 starts, 0-7 with a 4.19 ERA in 12 home starts, and 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Detroit is 1-14 in home games against a starter with a. WHIP of 1.20 or better this year.  Cleveland is 17-1 against an AL team that scored 3.9 RPG or fewer this season.  Take Cleveland. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Philadelphia Phillies -125 

The Key: The Philadelphia Phillies are battling for a wild card spot in the National League.  The Pittsburgh Pirates are 11-30 in their last 41 games overall.  These are two teams headed in opposite directions.  Jason Vargas is 3-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 11 home starts this year.  Joe Musgrove is 8-12 with a 4.94 ERA in 26 starts for the Pirates, including 0-2 with a 5.10 ERA in his last 3 outings.  The Phillies are 12-5 in their last 17 games off a loss.  The Pirates are 16-40 in their last 56 road games against a left-handed starter.  The Phillies are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.  Take Philadelphia. 

6* Steelers/Titans NFLX *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +3 

7* Nationals/Cubs NL *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +119 

The Key: The Chicago Cubs do not want swept at home by the Nationals.  This is their chance to salvage the series and I like the price we are getting on them as home underdogs.  The Cubs are 44-21 at home this season and are rarely home dogs.  Cole Hamels is 17-9 with a 2.69 ERA in 38 lifetime starts against the Nationals.  Hamels is 3-0 with a 2.56 ERA in 10 home starts this year.  Take Chicago. 

7* NFLX Game of the Year on New Orleans Saints -3 

7* Florida/Miami ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida -7 

The Key: Dan Mullen turned Mississippi State into an SEC power, which is hard to do.  Then he took a 4-7 Florida team before arriving into a 10-3 team last year that beat Michigan 41-15 in the Peach Bowl.  Mullen is easily a Top 5 coach in the country, and he doesn’t get the respect he deserves.  Now the Gators have 13 returning starters this year with a loaded defense that has 8 starters back.  Having a proven QB in Feleipe Franks and all of his top receivers back from last year plus their leading rusher will help ease the pain of only having 5 returning starters on offense.  I just don’t trust Miami.  They went 7-6 last year and are going through a coaching change with Manny Diaz taking over after accepting the Temple job.  They only have 12 returning starters and will be starting a redshirt freshman quarterback.  Their offense was poor last year and will be again to start, especially facing a defense that caliber of Florida.  Remember last year Miami was dominated 17-33 by LSU in the opener, and they will get a similar fate here against another SEC power in the Gators.  The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.  Take Florida. 

6* Braves/Mets NL East *CA$H COW* on New York -105 

The Key: The Mets will be hungry following a rare home loss in extra innings yesterday to the Braves.  The Mets are now 14-3 in their last 17 home games and we are getting them at a cheap price tonight.  Atlanta starter Max Fried has a 4.57 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 12 road starts this year.  Zack Wheeler comes in pitching very well for the Mets, going 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA in his last 4 outings.  Wheeler is 6-5 with a 3.78 ERA in 13 lifetime starts against the Braves.  The Mets are 8-0 in home games off a loss by 2 runs or less this season.  Take New York. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-125) 

The Key: The Astros are cheap on the run line tonight considering the advantage they have on the rubber over the Angels tonight.  Zack Greinke is 13-4 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 26 starts this year.  He’ll be opposed by Jose Suarez, who is 2-4 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 11 starts this year, and 0-3 with a 10.22 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  The Angels are 0-4 in Suarez’s last 4 starts.  The Astros are 40-13 in their last 53 Game 1’s.  The Astros are 44-21 in the last 65 meetings, and 7-1 in the last 8 home meetings.  Take Houston on the Run Line. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-130) 

The Key: The Tampa Bay Rays have actually been a lot better on the road than at home this year.  They are 40-23 on the highway in 2019.  They should win by multiple runs tonight over the Baltimore Orioles thanks to their advantage on the rubber.  Ryan Yarbrough is 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 7 starts this year, and 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA and 0.51 WHIP in 3 road starts.  Asher Wojciechowski is 2-6 with a 4.84 ERA in 9 starts, and 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA in his last 3 outings.  He yielded 4 runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 3-6 loss to the Rays in his only lifetime start against them back on July 2nd.  Baltimore is 1-21 after allowing 3 runs or less in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.  It is losing by 4.0 RPG in this situation.  Take Tampa Bay on the Run Line. 

7* Interleague Game of the Week on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-170) 

The Key: Instead of laying -350 plus to back the Dodgers on the money line we’ll take them -170 on the run line and save nearly 200 points of juice.  They exploded for 16 runs on the Blue Jays yesterday and not face an opener in Wilmer Font who has a 5.61 ERA in 4 road starts this year.  Walker Buehler is 10-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 23 starts this year for the Dodgers, and 5-0 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 11 home starts.  The Blue Jays are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague games against a right-handed starter.  The Dodgers are 44-12 in their last 56 home games.  There’s better than a -170 chance of the Dodgers winning this game by 2 runs or more.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+100) 

The Key: The Chicago Cubs have a big advantage on the rubber tonight over the San Francisco Giants.  Cole Hamels is 6-4 with a 3.69 ERA in 20 starts this year, and 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA in 9 home starts.  Tyler Beede is 3-6 with a 5.74 ERA in 15 starts, including 3-3 with a 6.11 ERA in 9 road starts.  Beede faced the Cubs on July 24th and yielded 4 runs, 3 homers and 11 base runners in 5 2/3 innings of a 1-4 loss.  Beede is 0-4 with a 6.32 ERA in his last 6 starts overall having yielded 8 homers in 31 1/3 innings with opponents hitting .321 against him.  Chicago is 21-3 in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 over the last 2 seasons and winning by 2.9 RPG.  The Giants are 0-5 in Beede’s last 5 starts.  The Cubs are 6-0 in Hamels’ last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record.  Take Chicago on the Run Line. 

6* 49ers/Broncos NFLX *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +1.5 

7* NL Central Game of the Month on St. Louis Cardinals -112 

The Key: The Cardinals are cheap at home tonight.  Dakota Hudson is 11-6 with a 3.84 ERA in 24 starts, 4-2 with a 3.60 ERA in 11 home starts, and 1-1 with a 3.29 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Zach Davies is 8-5 with a 3.74 ERA in 23 starts this year, but 0-3 with an 11.77 ERA in his last 3 outings, which required a trip to the DL.  Now he makes his first start back off the DL and will be on a pitch count.  Davies is 0-2 with a 7.53 ERA in his last 4 starts against the Cardinals, yielding 17 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings.  Hudson is 10-0 when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.  Take St. Louis. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-120) 

The Key: The Houston Astros have lost 5 straight and are hungry for a win Sunday.  They don’t want to get swept by the Oakland A’s and want to salvage this series with a Game 4 victory.  They should do just that thanks to their advantage on the rubber.  Zack Greinke is 12-4 with a 3.08 ERA in 25 starts this year, including 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 14 road starts.  Greinke is 6-2 with a 3.18 ERA in 12 lifetime starts against the A’s.  Brett Anderson is 4-5 with a 4.65 ERA in 11 home starts this year.  Anderson is 1-4 with a 7.04 ERA in 5 lifetime starts against the Astros.  Anderson is 1-9 in home games against a team that outscores their opponent by one or more runs per game in his career.  His teams are losing by 3.6 RPG on average in this situation.  Take Houston on the Run Line. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-166) 

The Key: The Boston Red Sox have won 3 straight and have outscored their last 2 opponents 14-2.  The Red Sox will win this game over the hapless Orioles by multiple runs again tonight.  Eduardo Rodriquez is 13-5 with a 4.33 ERA in 24 starts and 6-1 with a 3.96 ERA in 10 home starts.  Rodriquez is 8-5 with a 3.60 ERA in 15 lifetime starts against the Orioles, including 5-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last 5 starts against them with all 5 wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Asher Wojciechowski is 2-5 with a 4.91 ERA in 8 starts for the Orioles this year.  Take Boston on the Run Line. 

6* Saturday NFLX *CA$H COW* on Indianapolis Colts -2 

6* Friday NFLX *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5 

7* NL Central Game of the Month on Cincinnati Reds -138 

The Key: Luis Castillo is having a Cy Young worthy season and will shut down the Cardinals tonight.  Castillo is 11-4 with a 2.76 ERA in 24 starts this year, and 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA in 15 home starts.  Castillo sports a 3.11 ERA in 8 lifetime starts against the Cardinals, and he’s 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his last 3 starts against them while yielding 2 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings.  Adam Wainwright is 2-6 with a 6.79 ERA in 11 road starts this year.  Wainwright has a 5.42 ERA in 26 lifetime starts against the Reds, and he yielded 7 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start at Cincinnati on July 19th.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Astros/A’s AL West *BAILOUT* on Oakland +111 

The Key: The Oakland A’s should not be home dogs to the Houston Astros today.  The Astros have gone 1-3 in their last 4 games overall while losing as -450, -355 and -350 favorites.  The A’s have the clear advantage on the rubber tonight with Mike Fiers, who is 11-3 with a 3.18 ERA in 24 starts, including 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA in 3 home starts.  Fiers has limited the Astros to only 4 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in his last 2 starts against them this season.  Aaron Sanchez is 5-14 with a 5.60 ERA in 25 starts this year, including 2-8 with a 6.41 ERA in 13 road starts.  Sanchez is also 1-2 with a 5.71 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against the A’s.  Take Oakland. 

6* Thursday NFLX *CA$H COW* on Baltimore Ravens -3.5 

7* Interleague *MOUND MISMATCH* on San Diego Padres -105 

The Key: The Padres will be hungry to avoid the sweep after losing the first 2 games of this series to the Tampa Bay Rays.  And now they have the advantage on the rubber in Game 3 today.  Cal Quantrill is 3-3 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA in 7 home starts.  Quantrill is 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA in his last 3 outings as well.  Tampa Bay starter Jalen Beeks is 0-1 with an 11.04 ERA in his 2 starts this year.  Take San Diego. 

7* Interleague Game of the Month on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-144) 

The Key: The Cardinals have won 3 straight and have scored 20 runs in the 3 wins.  They take on a Royals team that is 4-12 in their last 16 games overall.  The Cardinals have a big advantage on the rubber tonight with Jack Flaherty, who is 5-6 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts this year.  Flaherty is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.60 WHIP in his last 3 starts while yielding just 2 earned runs in 20 innings with 28 strikeouts.  Glenn Sparkman is 3-6 with a 5.96 ERA in 13 starts this year, including 0-2 with a 10.56 ERA in his last 3 starts, yielding 18 earned runs and 6 homers in 15 1/3 innings.  The Cardinals are 37-15 in their last 52 against a team that wins less than 40% of their games.  The Royals are 2-12 in their last 14 interleague home games.  Kansas City is 1-5 in Sparkman’s last 6 starts.  Take St. Louis on the Run Line. 

7* Red Sox/Indians ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +106 

The Key: Two teams headed in opposite directions square off in Cleveland Monday night on ESPN.  The Indians are 36-15 in their last 51 games overall and have moved into a tie for first place with the Twins in the AL Central.  The Red Sox are 3-11 in their last 14 games overall to fall 7.5 games back in the wild card and are almost assuredly missing out on the playoffs now.  Zach Plesac isn’t getting the respect he deserves as a home dog to the Red Sox here.  Plesac is 6-3 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 13 starts this year, including 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 7 home starts.  Eduardo Rodriquez has a 4.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 13 road starts for the Red Sox this season.  Plesac held the Red Sox to one run in 5 1/3 innings at Fenway Park back on May 28th in his only lifetime start against them.  The Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 road games.  Boston is 0-8 in its last 8 against a team with a winning record.  The Indians are 13-3 in their last 16 home games against a left-handed starter.  The Indians are 6-0 in Plesac’s last 6 starts overall and 5-0 in his last 5 home starts.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Phillies/Giants ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -103 

The Key: The Phillies are just 1-4 in their last five games overall and have scored only 6 runs in the 4 losses.  Talented rookie Conner Menez should shut them down today as well.  Jake Arrieta has been below average this season at 8-8 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 23 starts.  He is pitching through injury and just hasn’t been right of late.  He hasn’t made it out of the 6th inning in any of his last 6 starts.  The Phillies are 6-14 in their last 20 road games against a left-handed starter.  Philadelphia is 1-5 in its last 6 road meetings with the Giants.  Take San Francisco. 

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Red Sox -144 

The Key: The Red Sox aren’t dead yet.  They’ve rebounded nicely by winning the last two days and outscoring the Angels 19-4 in the process.  The Angels have basically given up at this point as they are currently in the midst of an 8-game losing streak.  Andrew Heaney is 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA in 9 starts this year and will get lit up by the Red Sox today.  Heaney has a 6.97 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against the Red Sox as well.  Take Boston. 

6* Bucs/Steelers NFLX *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh ML -125 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-155) 

The Key: The Astros have won 9 of their last 10 all by 2 runs or more.  They now face the Orioles, who were just swept by the Yankees and outscored 12-32 in the process.  Wade Miley has a 3.05 ERA on the season and a 1.89 ERA in his last 3 starts.  He is a much better starter than Dylan Bundy, who has a 5.15 ERA on the season and a 5.89 ERA at home.  Bundy is 1-18 against teams that score 4.9 RPG or more over the last 2 years.  Take Houston on the Run Line. 

6* Thursday NFLX *CA$H COW* on Miami Dolphins -4 

7* AL East Game of the Month on New York Yankees -1.5 (-125) 

The Key: The New York Yankees are riding an 8-game winning streak after their 14-2 beat down of the Orioles Wednesday night.  They have hit at least 5 home runs in 3 straight games and are playing with all kinds of confidence.  Domingo German is 10-0 against teams that steal 0.5 or fewer bases per game this season.  The Yankees are winning by 4.9 RPG in this situation.  German is 9-0 against division opponents this season with the Yankees winning by 4.6 RPG.  German is 13-2 with a 4.06 ERA in 18 starts, while Thomas Pannone is 0-3 with a 9.28 ERA in 5 starts for the Blue Jays.  Take New York on the Run Line. 

7* Interleague *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-175) 

The Key: We’ll lay the Astros on the Run Line today.  They’re playing too well and have too big of an advantage on the rubber tonight to not win by at least 2 runs.  Gerrit Cole is the Cy Young winner if the season ended today.  He is 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 24 starts with 216 strikeouts in 150 2/3 innings.  Cole is 4-1 with a 2.39 ERA in 6 lifetime starts against the Rockies.  Peter Lambert is 2-2 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 10 starts this year.  Lambert is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in one lifetime start against the Astros, which came on July 3rd.  The Rockies are 8-22 in their last 30 games overall.  The Rockies are 3-11 in their last 14 road games.  Colorado is 1-7 in Lambert’s last 8 starts.  The Astros are 23-5 in Cole’s last 28 home starts.  The Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 games overall with all 8 wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Take Houston on the Run Line. 

7* Interleague *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cincinnati Reds -140 

The Key: The Reds come in playing well at 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.  The Angels appear to have given up after losing 5 of 7 recently to the Tigers and Orioles of all teams.  The Angles are now 2-9 in their last 11 games overall.  Big advantage goes to the Reds on the rubber tonight . Anthony Desclafini is 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA in 9 home starts this year.  Jose Suarez is 2-2 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 9 starts for the Angels, and he has a 5.70 ERA in 5 road starts.  The Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Nationals/Giants National League *BAILOUT* on San Francisco -120 

The Key: The San Francisco Giants have the clear advantage on the rubber tonight over the Washington Nationals.  Jeff Samardzija is 8-8 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 22 starts this year, and 1-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 5 of his last 6 starts.  Erick Fedde is 1-2 with a. 4.98 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 9 starts this year, including 0-1 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  The Giants are 21-9 in their last 30 games overall.  San Francisco is 9-1 in its last 10 games off a loss.  The Giants are 5-1 in Samardzija’s last 6 starts.  The Nationals are 1-5 in Fedde’s last 6 road starts.  Take San Francisco. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Washington Nationals -153 

The Key: Big advantage on the rubber today for the Nationals over the Diamondbacks.  Patrick Corbin is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 22 starts this year with 159 strikeouts in 136 1/3 innings.  Corbin has been really spectacular of late, going 4-0 with a 1.75 ERA in his last 8 starts while yielding only 10 earned runs in 51 innings.  Taylor Clarke is 4-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 12 starts this year, and 2-2 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 5 home starts.  The Nationals are 7-1 in Corbin’s last 8 starts.  The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win.  Take Washington. 

7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Nationals -130 

The Key: The Nationals have been on a tear for months and are closing in on the Braves in the NL East.  Stephen Strasburg has been a big reason for their success.  Strasburg went 5-0 with a 1.43 ERA in July and has 53 strikeouts against 10 walks during a seven-game winning streak.  The Diamondbacks were sellers at the deadline and it’s showing as they are 1-4 in their last 5 games.  Robbie Ray has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-5 with a 6.52 ERA in 6 lifetime starts against them.  Take Washington.