Sports Picks & Predictions

7* EMU/CMU MAC Game of the Week on Eastern Michigan -2

The Key: The Eastern Michigan Eagles have been a hard-luck team all season.  They are just 3-6, but all 6 of their losses came by 7 points or less and by a combined 23 points.  They took out their frustration with a 56-14 beat down of Ball State last week.  And they still have a very good shot to make a bowl game with winnable games against Central Michigan, Miami Ohio and Bowling Green still to come.  The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in all road games over the last 2 seasons.  They get the win and cover here against Central Michigan.  Take Eastern Michigan.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit Pistons -7

The Key: The Detroit Pistons have been off since Saturday, giving them a full 3 days to get ready for this game against the Pacers.  It has given them a chance to hone in things from an impressive 7-3 SU & 7-2-1 ATS start to the season.  The Pacers are a tired team right now, playing the second of a back to back and their 6th game in 9 days.  Indiana is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games when playing on back to back days.  Detroit is 40-22 ATS in its last 62 games as a home favorite.  Take Detroit.

7* Bowling Green/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls have been a hard-luck team this season.  They are just 3-6, but 4 of their 6 losses have come by 4 points or less.  They are clearly better than their record.  They still have a chance to make a bowl considering they host Bowling Green and travel to Ball State next week, which should get them to 5-6 with Ohio at home in their finale.  Ohio may have nothing to play for in that game.  So the outlook for getting to a bowl game is still pretty good.  Bowling Green is just 2-7 with its only wins coming against Kent State and Miami Ohio.  The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Take Buffalo.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Indiana Pacers +1.5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are better than they get credit for.  They have opened 5-5 with wins over the likes of the Spurs, Cavs and Timberwolves already to show they can play with the good teams.  The Pacers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this year.  Off a 3-game road trip, they return home and should get in the win column against the Pelicans.  The Pelicans are 5-5 also, but 4 of their wins came against the worst teams in the NBA in the Lakers, Kings, Mavs and Bulls.  Indiana has a healthy Myles Turner back in the lineup after he missed most of the season up to this point, and he is probably the best player on the team, which just shows what their potential will be moving forward.  The Pelicans are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Pacers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Take Indiana.

7* Lions/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +3

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 24 of their last 25 home meetings with the Lions dating back to 1992.  Now they are home dogs here Monday night.  Granted, Aaron Rodgers isn't playing, but Brett Hundley should be much better than he was in his first career start against the Saints.  He has had two weeks to get ready for the Lions and that will certainly help.  It will also help that the Packers have a healthy offensive line for the first time this season now.  Take Green Bay.

6* Celtics/Hawks Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Boston -7.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  They should make that 9 in a row tonight against the Atlanta Hawks, who have gone 1-8 in their last 9 games with 6 losses by 10 points or more.  The Hawks won't even show up tonight after pulling off a shocking upset in Cleveland on Sunday.  Take Boston.

7* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -2

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals played in London two weeks ago.  They then had their bye last week.  Teams in this situation have been tremendous bets the first game back from their bye.  Teams returning from London off their bye are 9-0-1 ATS since 2015.  The 49ers are a mess right now with all of their injuries along the offensive line and receiver.  Joe Staley is out, and Trent Grown and Gary Gilliam are questionable.  Pierre Garcon is out for the season.  CJ Bethard never had a chance, and now they have Jimmy Garoppolo waiting in the wings.  Bethard gets thrown to the wolves one last time here Sunday.  Take Arizona.

6* Rams/Giants NFC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -5.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams played in London two weeks ago.  They then had their bye last week.  Teams in this situation have been tremendous bets the first game back from their bye.  Teams returning from London off their bye are 9-0-1 ATS since 2015. The Rams are the healthiest team in the NFL right now and could easily be 6-1 instead of 5-2.  The Giants have a laundry list of injuries and won't be competitive the rest of the way after their 1-6 start.  This is a complete mismatch ladies and gents.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Bucs/Saints NFC South *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +7

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are playing with their season on the line today.  At 2-5, and with the Saints at 5-2, their season is essentially over if they lose this game.  They should be playing with a chip on their shoulder here.  The Bucs still have the talent to match the Saints.  And they are catching 7 points, which is a ton when you consider each of the last 6 meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or less.  The Buccaneers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* AAC Game of the Week on SMU +14.5

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are one of the best teams the UCF Knights have played this year.  It's time to fade UCF this week after they have opened 7-0 SU & 6-0 ATS.  They have yet to lose against the spread.  But now they're up against an SMU that can and will score on them.  The Mustangs average 41.5 PPG, including 48.6 PPG at home.  The Mustangs are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this year, winning by an average of 22.8 PPG.  Bets on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SMU) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take SMU.

6* Mountain West Game of the Week on Nevada +20.5

The Key: The Boise State Broncos haven't covered a spread at home since 2015.  The Broncos are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Nevada has covered 3 in a row with a 3-point loss to Air Force and a 2-point loss to Colorado State, two of the better teams in the Mountain West.  And the Wolf Pack are coming off their bye week.  They can hang around here.  Take Nevada.

6* Ohio State/Iowa Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Iowa +18.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Ohio State.  The Buckeyes came back from a 35-20 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat Penn State 39-38 and avenge their overtime loss last year that cost them the Big Ten title.  If they were ever going to come out flat, it would be this week in Iowa City.  Iowa has only lost 8 of its last 115 home games by more than one score, and 4 of the last 115 by more than 2 scores.  The Hawkeyes just have a knack for playing Top 5 teams tough in Iowa City.  We saw them upset Michigan as 21-point dogs last year, and they nearly upset Penn State as 13-point dogs earlier this season.  The Nittany Lions needed a TD on the final play of the game to beat them.  Take Iowa.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State +10

The Key: Penn State is a bad spot here.  They are deflated after blowing a big lead to lose to Ohio State 39-38 last week.  And after back-to-back emotional games against Michigan and Ohio State, they won't have much left in the tank here.  Michigan State only has one Big Ten loss and is still very much alive to win the conference.  I think the Spartans come to play today and pull off the upset.  The Spartans have outgained 7 of their 8 opponents this year and are one of the most improved teams in the country.  Penn State is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.  Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  Take Michigan State.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Kansas +7.5

The Key: Both the Baylor Bears and Kansas Jayhawks have their best chance to get a Big 12 win this week because they play each other.  I think the Jayhawks at home have the better shot of getting that win, and we're getting 7.5 points with them.  They are coming off one of their best performances of the season.  They lost 20-30 to Kansas State as 25.5-point dogs and should have won that game.  They racked up 482 total yards on a good K-State defense, including 418 through the air.  Baylor is 2-10 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.  The Bears are 1-9 ATS off a home games over the last 2 years.  The Jayhawks are 9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points per game.  Take Kansas.

7* UCLA/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -7

The Key: Josh Rosen has a hand injury and will be a game-time decision tonight.  I would like Utah at -7 whether or not he plays, but if he doesn't it would obviously he would be a huge bonus.  Rosen hasn't practiced all week.  The Utes are hungry for a victory after losing 4 straight against a brutal schedule of Stanford, USC, ASU and Oregon.  Playing in the friendly confines of Salt Lake City tonight should help them get back on track.  The Bruins are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and have been overvalued all year.  They don't play any defense, giving up 37.6 points per game overall, including 49.2 points per game on the road.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this year and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games overall.  Take Utah.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia 76ers -4.5

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  They still aren't getting any love, and I like this -4.5 price we are getting with them at home here against the Indiana Pacers.  The Pacers have been a great covering team too, but I think they are the frauds while the 76ers are the real deal. And if the Pacers were going to have a letdown, it would be in this game because they are coming off a 124-107 win over Lebron James and the Cavaliers in Cleveland.  The 76ers are 14-2 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.  The 76ers are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 games overall.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Bills/Jets AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +3.5

The Key: I like backing underdogs with divisional revenge in mind.  The Jets lost to the Bills 21-12 on the road back in Week 1 in their first meeting.  But this has been a much better Jets team since then.  The Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall while going 3-3 straight up and their 3 losses coming to the Pats by 7, Falcons by 5 and Dolphins by 3.  So they have been competitive in every game with a chance to win late.  And getting 3.5 points here is a nice value as this game could easily be decided by a field goal.  The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  They are also 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss.  Give me New York.

6* Navy/Temple AAC *CA$H COW* on Temple +7.5

The Key: I think the situation really favors the Temple Owls here.  Temple just faced a triple-option team in Army last time out, giving up a late touchdown and losing 28-31 in OT on the road.  So they were well-versed in the option right now and had their bye last week to get even more ready for it.  The Owls have played much better of late and should be 3-0 in their last 3 games instead of 1-2, which is keeping them undervalued.  Temple outgained ECU by 236 yards in a 34-10 road win, outginaed UConn by 225 yards in a 24-28 home loss, and then outgained Army by 117 yards in that overtime defeat.  Navy has been outgained in 3 straight games. I think this Midshipmen team is much more vulnerable than most years.  They are 5-2, but 4 of those wins came by 10 points or less, so they haven't been blowing teams out.  Temple is 8-1 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.  The Owls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Temple.

6* Astros/Dodgers World Series *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -151

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers should win the World Series tonight behind Yu Darvish.  All Darvish has done is give up only 7 earned runs in 32 2/3 innings in his last 6 starts for a 1.93 ERA.  He has been much better than Lance McCullers, who sports a 7.08 ERA in his last 10 starts.  The Dodgers have the advantage on the starting mound and in the bullpen in this one.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on New Orleans Pelicans -2

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves are close to being 0-7 this season.  They are 4-3, but all 4 wins have come by 3 points or less.  They will take their medicine today against a Pelicans team that has owned them.  The Pelicans went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against the Timberwolves last season, winning by 14, 16 and 21 points.  Expect more of the same tonight.  Take New Orleans.

6* Astros/Dodgers Game 6 *Total* Annihilator on OVER 7.5

The Key: After both starting pitchers and bullpens were pushed to the max in the wild 13-12 Game 5, I can only look to the OVER in Game 6 tonight.  Rich Hill isn't going to go deep in this game as he never does, pitching just 4, 5 and 4 innings in his last 3 starts and averaging just 5.3 innings per start this season.  Justin Verlander gave up 2 homers against the Dodgers in Game 2 and doesn't like the way the baseball are basically juiced, and he has voiced his frustration on the topic.  The Astros are scoring 5.9 runs per game on the road and the Dodgers are scoring 5.0 runs per game at home.  The OVER is 4-1 in Verlander's last 5 starts.  The OVER is 6-1 in Astros last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 5-1 in Hill's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the OVER.

6* Thunder/Bucks Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee +2

The Key: Wrong team favored here.  The Oklahoma City Thunder haven't found their chemistry yet with the new faces in Paul George and Carmelo Anthony.  The Thunder are just 3-3 on the season with their 3 wins coming against the Knicks, Pacers and Bulls.  They have lost to their best teams they've faced, and now they take another step up in class against a Milwaukee Bucks team that will challenge for supremacy in the East.  The Thunder are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Miami/Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +10

The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks were expected to contend for a MAC title this year after going 6-0 over their final 6 regular season games last year.  They brought back 17 starts from that team.  So their 3-5 start comes as a bit of a surprise, and it has them getting zero respect from the books right now.  Conversely, Ohio is coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Bowling Green and Kent State and getting a lot of love.  But this is a team that lost to Central Michigan 23-26 at home prior to those two wins against MAC bottom feeders.  A big reason for the Redhawks' struggles is that they have been without starting QB Gus Ragland, who is a game-time decision tonight and may return since they had extra time before this game after last playing on November 21st.  The Redhawks still have a shot at a bowl game and will be fighting tooth and nail to get back to one.  The Bobcats are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  The Redhawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Take Miami Ohio.

7* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -7

The Key: The Denver Broncos have lost their two road games a a combined 47-16 this season.  Those were to the Bills and Chargers.  Now they face their toughest road test of the season and the best team they have faced all year.  And they are banged up at receiver and along the offensive line.  They get a hungry Chiefs team coming off consecutive losses and on extra rest after playing last Thursday, and Andy Reid is the best in the business when given extra time to prepare.  Take Kansas City.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia 76ers +7

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers just lost to the Houston Rockets on a buzzer-beater 105-104 on October 25th this past Wednesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge less than a week later.  I love backing the team with revenge in mind in these spots.  Take Philadelphia.

6* Steelers/Lions Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Pittsburgh -3

The Key: The Detroit Lions are coming off a bye, which is keeping this line shorter than it should be.  But they have some key injuries still that the are dealing with along the offensive line and at receiver.  And I think that they are still overvalued due to their 3-1 start, but we've seen their true colors show in their last two games with a 24-27 home loss to the Panthers and a 38-52 road loss to the Saints.  But those games were bigger blowouts than the final scores as the Lions made late runs in both.  They trailed the Panthers 27-10 and the Saints 45-10.  The Steelers look like perhaps the best team in the NFL right now with their 19-13 road win over the Chiefs and their 29-14 home win over the Bengals.  They have one of the league's top defenses, and Le'Veon Bell cannot be stopped.  The Steelers are 9-1 ATS after going over the total in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* NFC Game of the Year on San Francisco 49ers +13

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after their 6-1 start to the season.  It's time to fade away in this flat spot for them off their big win over the Redskins on Monday Night football, which makes it a short week for them as well.  It's also time to back the 49ers off their 30-point loss to the Cowboys as the public perception of them is way down right now.  But they had lost 5 straight games by 3 points or fewer prior to that blowout defeat, so they are clearly capable of being competitive.  Bets on dogs is 10.5 or more points off a loss y 14 points or more against an opponent who scored 30 or more points last game are 26-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take San Francisco.

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Raiders/Bills OVER 46

The Key: The matchup here favors the over.  Derek Carr threw for 417 yards last week, and the Raiders will have to almost exclusively throw the ball now that Marshawn Lynch has been suspended for this game.  And the Bills have given up over 700 passing yards combined in their last 2 games due to all of their injuries in the secondary.  The Bills will be able to move the ball at will on this weak Raiders defense as well.  The OVER is 13-3 in Bills last 16 home games.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.  The OVER is 10-1 in all Bills home games over the last 2 seasons.  Take the OVER.

6* Mississippi State/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M +2.5

The Key: Wrong team favored here.  Texas A&M is coming off its bye week and will be ready for Mississippi State both from preparation and rest standpoints.  The Aggies played Alabama tougher than anyone this season, only losing 19-27 as 25-point home dogs.  Maybe even more impressive was the fact that they didn't have a letdown the next week and beat Florida 19-17 on the road.  Mississippi State's last two road games have resulted in 3-31 and 10-49 blowout losses at Georgia and Auburn, respectively.  College Station is still one of the tougher places to play in college football.  Texas A&M was favored by 10 at Mississippi State last year and lost outright 28-35.  So it's a revenge game, and now they are dogs at home this time around AND off a bye.  The price is too good to pass up.  Take Texas A&M.

7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -6.5

The Key: The Florida Atlantic Owls are absolutely rolling right now.  And the markets haven't caught up to them yet.  They still haven't caught up to them this week.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.  They get quick-strike touchdowns that their opponents can't get.  It's an FAU team that has hung 58 and 69 points in their last two games.  Western Kentucky has been getting too much respect in the betting markets all season with a 1-5-1 ATS record.  They have some awful performances against bad teams, including their 35-31 win over Old Dominion, the same ODU team that FAU waxed 58-28.  Take Florida Atlantic.

6* Penn State/Ohio State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on UNDER 58

The Key: With the Big Ten title basically on the line in this game, I expect it to be played closer to the vest.  What I mean by that is fewer chances taken and field position being the priority.  Both teams will be tight for this game.  And there's no question that these are the two best defenses that these teams have faced all season.  Penn State is allowing 9.6 PPG and 283 YPG and 4.0 YPP.  Ohio State is allowing 15.4 PPG, 305 YPG and 4.5 YPP.  Weather may be an issue as well with rain forecast for Saturday.  Take the UNDER.

7* Dodgers/Astros World Series *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +120

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Los Angeles Dodgers as underdogs to the Houston Astros in Game 3 tonight.  Yu Darvish has been unhittable, going 4-0 with a 0.88 ERA in his last 5 starts while allowing just 3 earned runs in 30 2/3 innings.  I trust the Dodgers' bullpen over the Astros' suspect unit more when it gets to that point and the Dodgers have a lead.  The Astros have gone just 1-8 in Lance McCullers' last 9 starts.  He should not be favored over Darvish in this matchup.  Take Los Angeles.

6* FSU/Boston College NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Florida State -5

The Key: This line before the season would have been Florida State favored by roughly 21.  I think the price is right to pull the trigger now on the Seminoles as only 5-point favorites.  They have played one of the toughest schedules in the country which is why they are 2-4.  And if they are going to make a bowl game, they need this win over Boston College.  This is a prideful program and Jimbo Fisher does not want the bowl streak to come to an end.  Look for the Seminoles to handle their business tonight.  The Seminoles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Take Florida State.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Denver Nuggets -7

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA thus far with their 1-3 start.  They are loaded with talent and are better than they've shown.  Now they have a chance to get right against arguably the worst team in the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks, who just lost last night 86-91 in Chicago and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  The Hawks were without Dennis Schroeder and Ersan Ilyasova last night and both are questionable again tonight.  Given the line, I'm assuming Shchroeder is out, and the Hawks really have nothing without him.  He is far and away their best player.  The Nuggets are 12-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.  The Nuggets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Nuggets are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games following a loss.  The Hawks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take Denver.

7* Dolphins/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Dolphins +3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins are the better team here over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Dolphins have managed a 4-2 record despite getting nothing out of their offense this season.  Well, that was until the 4th quarter last week when Matt Moore replaced an injured Jay Cutler and led the Dolphins to 17 points in the final period to beat the Jets 31-28.  Now Moore gets the nod again, and the offense will open up with him at the helm.  The Dolphins already have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they'll be up against one of the worst offenses in the Ravens.  The cluster injuries for the Ravens right now just aren't going to allow them to be competitive moving forward.  Take Miami.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Chicago Bulls -2

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are 0-3 this season, but they were competitive in losses to the Spurs and Cavaliers.  And their other loss came to the Raptors, so their three defeats have come against three of the best teams in the NBA.  Now they'll be hungry for their first victory, and they have an excellent chance to get it against the only team in the NBA that may be worse than them in the 1-3 Atlanta Hawks.  The Hawks are going to be without their best player in Dennis Shroder, who is listed as doubtful.  And Ersan Ilyasova is questionable and may be their second-best player.  Bets against dogs (Atlanta) average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games, after 2 or more consecutive losses are 24-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Chicago.

6* Thursday MAC *CA$H COW* on Eastern Michigan +7.5

The Key: The Eastern Michigan Eagles are just 2-5 this season, but they have now lost 5 straight games by 7 points or less.  And dating back to last year, their last 7 losses have come by 7 points or fewer.  So we are getting a nice price with them here as +7.5 dogs to Northern Illinois.  The last 5 losses have all come to quality teams in Ohio, Kentucky, Toledo, Army and Western Michigan.  If they can play with those 5 teams, they can hang with Northern Illinois this week.  They will also be out to avenge a 31-24 home loss to NIU last year after they blew a 21-0 halftime lead.  We'll get a big effort from the Eagles in this game.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Take Eastern Michigan.

7* Astros/Dodgers World Series *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +100

The Key: In Justin Verlander I trust.  He is 9-0 with a 1.23 ERA since joining the Astros.  He sports a 1.46 ERA in the postseason and is just simply getting it done at a high level.  The Astros are 8-0 in Verlander's last 8 starts.  Take Houston.

6* Spurs/Heat ESPN *CA$H COW* on Miami +4.5

The Key: The Miami Heat were one of the best teams in the NBA in the second half last year.  They have been grossly underrated, and they're being overlook again here as 4.5-point home dogs to the San Antonio Spurs.  This is a Spurs team that has been able to get by without Kawhi Leonard, going 3-0, but two of their games were close at home, and their only road win came against the awful Chicago Bulls.  This will be their stiffest road test yet.  The Heat are 11-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.  The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Miami.

7* Astros/Dodgers World Series *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -167

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers have gone 26-4 in Clayton Kershaw's 30 starts this season.  They've gone 14-2 in his 16 home starts.  So despite having to lay heavy prices with him, you'd still be up 15 units of profit on the season.  And now we only have to lay -167 with him in Game 1 of the World Series.  Dallas Keuchel sports a 4.43 ERA on the road lifetime and can't be trusted as much away from home.  Kershaw is 30-3 (+21.2 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons.  Kershaw is 41-8 (+21.2 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Tuesday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Pacers/Timberwolves UNDER 219.5

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves will play defense this season with the additions of Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, who were defensive stalwarts in Tom Thibodeau's time in Chicago.  They will demand defense from the likes of Andrew Wiggins and Karl Anthony-Towns.  Indiana will be missing its best player in Myles Turner, who opens up their offense with his ability to stretch the floor.  They will also be without floor stretcher Glenn Robinson III tonight.  I just don't see how the Pacers contribute enough points in this game to push this game over this 219.5-point total.  Indiana is 12-3 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more in 3 straight games coming in.  Take the UNDER.

7* Redskins/Eagles NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC at 5-1 right now.  They have a front seven defensively that is one of the best in the NFL, and their offense has really taken off this year with Carson Wentz.  I think Wentz has a big game against a Redskins defense that will be missing Josh Norman and Jonathan Allen, and possibly another corner in Breeland.  The Eagles beat the Redskins already 30-17 on the road and outgained them 356 to 254 in that game.  Now they are only laying 5 at home in the rematch.  I think they win by a TD or more with ease.  Take Philadelphia.

6* Monday NBA *Total* Annihilator on 76ers/Pistons UNDER 214.5

The Key: The last 6 meetings between the 76ers and Pistons in Detroit have all seen 209 or fewer combined points.  They have averaged 199 combined points in those 6 meetings.  The Pistons are 13-3 to the UNDER in their last 16 home games.  Take the UNDER.

7* AFC Total of the Year on Bengals/Steelers OVER 40.5

The Key: This simply come down to value.  The over/unders on the two meetings between these teams last season were 45.5 and 48 points.  And we haven't seen a total lower than 44.5 in a Bengals vs. Steelers game in any of the last 8 meetings.  This total of 40.5 is simply too low.  The Bengals have been improving offensively since making the coordinator change, and the Steelers aren't going to be held back offensively like they have up to this point.  They simply have too much talent on offense.  Cincinnati is on a 48-28 OVER run vs. good defensive teams that give up 17 or fewer points per game.  Pittsburgh is on a 28-14 OVER run in home games vs. teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game.  Take the OVER.

6* Broncos/Chargers AFC West *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +1

The Key: The Chargers have won 2 straight and will be looking for revenge after a 3-point loss to the Broncos in Week 1.  They should have a great chance of getting revenge here considering they are relatively healthy, while the Broncos are dealing with several injuries.  The top 2 receivers are hurt in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, with Sanders out Sunday.  Trevor Siemian is playing despite a bum shoulder, and he will be missing his starting offensive tackle and his backup tackle.  I just don't see where the points are going to come from for the Broncos in this game given the current state of their offense up against an underrated Chargers defense.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Seahawks/Giants NFC *CA$H COW* on Seattle -3.5

The Key: Money has been pouring in on the Giants all week.  But it's an overreaction from their 23-10 win in Denver on Sunday Night Football.  The Broncos took them lightly and had a ton of injuries in that game that led to the result.  But the Giants weren't the better team.  They got all the breaks, including a defensive touchdown, and they were actually outgained by 146 yards by the Broncos.  Now they have to face a rested Seahawks team coming off their bye, and I think the Giants' deficiencies will really show this week.  The Seahawks own the Giants, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings while winning by an average of 18.3 points per game.  Take Seattle.

6* Colorado/WSU Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on OVER 52

The Key: This total has been set too low tonight because Washington State has gone under the total in 4 straight games coming in.  That includes their 3-37 loss at Cal last week.  But they gave that game away by committing 7 turnovers as their offense just couldn't punch it in, turning it over 7 times in 13 drives, which is tough to do.  Look for a much more efficient showing from an offense that had scored at least 31 points in 5 straight games to start the season.  And Colorado will chip in its fair share with an offense that has scored at least 36 points in 4 of 7 games this year.  But the Buffaloes have taken a big step back defensively this season, giving up 35.5 points per game in conference play this season.  Colorado is 20-4 OVER in its last 24 road games after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.  These teams combined for 62 points last year in a 38-24 Colorado victory.  Expect a similar final score here in Washington State's favor.  Take the OVER.

6* Fresno/SDSU Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Fresno State +7.5

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs have gone 6-0 against the spread this season.  They have only lost to Alabama and Washington, two of the best teams in the land.  There's a good reason this line has dropped from +10.5 down to +7.5, but I still think there's plenty of value on backing the Bulldogs here in a game they can win outright.  San Diego State players were quoted as saying that they had the goal of going undefeated coming into the season.  But that goal was ended last week with a 14-31 home loss to Boise State.  It's the type of dream-crushing loss that is tough to recover from the next week.  I expect SDSU to be flat in this game here.  The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.   The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams with winning records.  Take Fresno State.

6* Saturday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Magic/Cavs UNDER 215.5

The Key: Both the Cavs and Magic will be missing their starting point guards in this game.  Elfrid Payton is doubtful for Orlando, while Derrick Rose is doubtful for Cleveland.  Without their point guards, I expect both offenses to struggle more than normal here.  So we'll take a shot with the UNDER 215.5.  Both teams will be fatigued after playing last night as well, so the pace of this game should be slow.  Take the UNDER.

6* Yankees/Astros Game 7 *CA$H COW* on New York +118

The Key: This just feels like it's CC Sabathia's time.  He has had a resurrection-type season this year, going 15-5 with a 3.56 ERA in 30 starts, and 7-3 with a 3.24 ERA in 16 road starts.  Sabathia has gone 1-0 with a 2.30 ERA in 3 postseason starts as well.  He pitched 6 scoreless innings against Houston in Game 3 to improve to 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA in 4 lifetime starts vs. Houston.  Charlie Morton is 1-2 with an 8.26 ERA in 3 lifetime starts vs. New York.  He has allowed 11 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings against the Yankees in two starts against them this season.  The Yankees are 6-1 in Sabathia's last 7 starts.  Take New York.

6* WVU/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on West Virginia -9

The Key: If Baylor was going to show improvement, it would have been last week when they were coming off their bye week, giving Matt Rhule two weeks to tweak some things.  But they fell flat on their faces once again to drop to 0-6 on the season.  They lost 16-59 at Oklahoma State, giving up 747 total yards to the Cowboys.  Now they have to face one of the best offenses in the country in West Virginia this week.  This number is short because WVU can name its number Saturday.  The Mountaineers are scoring 44.2 points per game and averaging 548 total yards per game despite playing a pretty difficult schedule against the likes of VA Tech, TCU and Texas Tech thus far.  Baylor is only 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a home dog of 7.5 to 14 points. WVU is 12-2 ATS in its last 12 road games when playing a team that is winning 25% or less of its games.  The Mountaineers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take West Virginia.

7* Conference USA Game of the year on Louisiana Tech -2.5

The Key: The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are in a good spot here coming off their bye week.  They are just 3-3 this season, but they have suffered two 1-point losses this season both on the road at South Carolina (17-16) and UAB (22-23).  But this team has been a great bet at home through the years.  LA Tech is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games off two straight unders.  Take Louisiana Tech.

6* WMU/EMU MAC *CA$H COW* on Eastern Michigan +3

The Key: I faded Western Michigan last week by backing Akron as my MAC Game of the Year, and the Zips delivered an outright 14-13 win as 13-point dogs.  And that game was played on Sunday due to getting postponed for weather on Saturday.  That means Western Michigan is working on a short week.  The Broncos just aren't anywhere near as good as they were last year with PJ Fleck, Zach Terrell and Corey Davis, but they are still getting treated like that team by oddsmakers.  Eastern Michigan went to a bowl last year and basically returned everyone.  But they have lost 4 straight games by 7, 4, 5 and 1 point drop to 2-4 on the season.  That 2-4 record has them getting no love from oddsmakers despite the fact that they've gone 5-1 against the spread.  Now they take out their frustration on the vulnerable Broncos today.  The Eagles are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Eastern Michigan.

6* Colorado State/New Mexico NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 59

The Key: This Colorado State offense has been lighting up scoreboards since the second half of last season.  The OVER is 8-3 in Colorado State's last 11 games overall.  They are coming off a 44-42 shootout victory over Nevada last week.  The OVER is 11-3 in New Mexico's last 14 games on grass.  The OVER is 20-8 in the Lobos' last 28 home games.  These teams played in a 49-31 shootout last season with 80 combined points.  I think we see a similar result here.  Take the OVER.

7* Yankees/Astros ALCS Game of the Year on Houston -126

The Key: Justin Verlander has been the best pitcher in baseball down the stretch.  He has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 10 consecutive starts.  He has gone 9-0 with a 1.41 ERA in those 10 outings.  He went the distance against the Yankees in Game 2 and got the win.  Luis Severino sports a 5.56 ERA in the playoffs, and he sports a 7.72 ERA in 3 lifetime starts vs. New York.  The home team is 5-0 in the ALCS.  This trend improves to 6-0 tonight.  Take Houston.

6* Cavs/Bucks ESPN *Total* Annihilator on OVER 208.5

The Key: This has clearly been an OVER series between the Cavs and Bucks.  The OVER is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.  And the OVER is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Milwaukee.  This total has been set too low tonight.  Take the OVER.

6* Lakers/Clippers Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles Lakers +6

The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers will start showing some progress this season and make a run at the final playoff spot.  The Los Angeles Clippers are headed the other direction after trading away their franchise player in Chris Paul to Houston.  I think we are getting a nice price on the Lakers here as 6-point dogs.  They want to establish that they are the best team in L.A. once again, and it starts against the Clippers in their opener.  Take the Lakers.

7* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +3

The Key: The Oakland Raiders' season is on the line tonight.  They have dropped 4 straight to fall to 2-4 on the season.  They cannot afford to drop to 2-5 with another loss here or they'll be done.  They Chiefs are vulnerable right now as this is a tough scheduling spot.  They played on Monday night two weeks ago, and now have to play on Thursday night.  That means they will be playing their 3rd game in 11 days, which is as tough a spot as it gets in the NFL.  The Chiefs have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in all 6 games this year.  Look for a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch from the Raiders here, which will be the key to victory for them.  Take Oakland.

6* Lafayette/Arkansas State Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Louisiana-Lafayette +13

The Key: This scheduling spot favors the LA-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns.  They have had a full week to get ready for this game after playing last Thursday.  Arkansas State is on a short week after playing on Saturday.  And I think these teams are a lot more evenly-matched than this 13-point spread suggests.  Plus, Lafayette has had Arkansas State's number in recent years.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.  Take Lafayette.

7* Timberwolves/Spurs ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +2

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves will be one of the better teams in the Western Conference this season.  They added Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague to go along with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns.  This is now one of the best starting lineups in the league.  And the Spurs are going to be missing their best player and MVP in Kawhi Leonard tonight.  There is now a huge talent mismatch here in favor of the Timberwolves, and they should not be dogs.  Take Minnesota.

6* Dodgers/Cubs NLCS *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +104

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers are on a mission.  They are a streaky team, and they are 6-0 in the postseason.  Nothing would spell sweet revenge quite like a sweep of the Chicago Cubs, the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  I don't expect much fight from the Cubs here after falling down 3-0 in the series.  They have scored just 4 combined runs in this series and haven't even come close to touching the Dodgers' bullpen.  Alex Wood is 7-1 with a 2.24 ERA in 13 road starts this year.  Wood has allowed just 1 earned run in 8 2/3 innings in 2 starts against the Cubs this season.  Jake Arrieta has allowed 8 earned runs in 11 innings while losing each of his last 2 starts against the Dodgers.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Western Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans Pelicans +2

The Key: The Grit 'n Grind era is starting to fall apart in Memphis.  The Grizzlies lost Zach Randolph and Tony Allen in the offseason.  They still have Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, but the talent around them is underwhelming to say the least.  The Pelicans are a team that will be improved this season.  DeMarcus Cousins was traded there midseason last year.  Having an entire offseason to implement the new systems surrounding Cousins and Anthony Davis will do wonders for this team, starting with Game 1 tonight.  Take New Orleans.

7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year on Chicago Cubs -107

The Key: Favorites and home teams have dominated in the postseason.  The home team has won Game 3 in all three series thus far.  I like the Cubs to take Game 3 tonight to get back in this series with the Dodgers after losing the first two games in Los Angeles.  The Cubs will be giving the ball to their best starter in Kyle Hendricks.  He is 8-5 with a 3.05 ERA in 26 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA in his last 5 starts while yielding just 6 earned runs in 29 2/3 innings.  Hendricks is also 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles.  Take Chicago.

6* Celtics/Cavs Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Cleveland -3.5

The Key: I think the fact that Lebron James is showing up on the injury report is keeping this line lower than it should be.  JR Smith said Lebron will play, and I have no doubt he will as he wants to beat down the Celtics and former teammate Kyrie Irving.  I think the whole Cavs team feels that way and will rally around him here. And the Celtics won't have much chemistry in the early going with all of the new faces in the lineup as they'll have four new starters this year.  Take Cleveland.

7* Colts/Titans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -6.5

The Key: The Tennessee Titans are going to be hungry tonight following two straight losses.  But an asterisk has to get put on those losses because Marcus Mariota got hurt against the Texans two weeks ago, and he didn't play against Miami last week.  Now Mariota makes his return and will lead the Titans to a blowout victory over the hapless Colts.  The only two wins for the Colts this season came at home against the 0-6 Cleveland Browns and the 0-6 San Francisco 49ers by a combined 6 points.  In their 2 road games this year, the Colts lost 9-46 to the Rams and 18-46 to the Seahawks.  Adding to the Titans' hunger here is the fact that they have lost 11 straight meetings with the Colts, but most of those were with Andrew Luck at QB.  Take Tennessee.

6* Astros/Yankees American League *CA$H COW* on New York -132

The Key: The Yankees are 20-9 in C.C. Sabathia's 29 starts this season.  He has been one of the most profitable starters to back in baseball.  The Yankees are 13-3 in his last 16 home starts.  I trust him to deliver in this spot, which is exactly what he's done in his 2 postseason starts thus far against Corey Kluber no less.  And Charlie Morton is a big downgrade from Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, and the Yankees nearly beat both of them in the first two games.  Take New York.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5

The Key: Teams coming off Thursday NFL games are a perfect 8-0 against the spread this season.  The Bucs have had extra time to prepare now after losing 14-19 at home to the Patriots last Thursday in a game they easily could have won.  They get some key players back from injury on defense in Lavonte David and TJ Ward.  Now they get to face an Arizona Cardinals team that is coming off a 7-34 loss at Philadelphia and could easily be 0-5 this year if not for overtime wins against the Colts and 49ers.  The Cardinals have mass offensive line injuries right now and can't keep Carson Palmer upright.  Trading for Adrian Peterson won't solve their problems in the immediate future, and I think they're being overvalued because of that trade.  The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Los Angeles Rams +2.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams are the better team in this matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Rams have put up legit numbers this season outgaining teams by 40 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.  The Jaguars haven't as they are dead even in yardage differential and dead even in yards per play.  The Jaguars have been one of the most lucky teams in the NFL to force 15 turnovers and score an insane amount of points off those turnovers.  They are +11 in turnover differential this season, which is the only reason they are 3-2.  I don't like backing teams that must win the turnover battle to win the game, which is almost always the case for the Jaguars because they aren't very good, especially on offense.  West Coast teams traveling East is usually a tough spot for them, but not here because this is a 4:05 EST start time.  Take Los Angeles.

7* MAC Game of the Year on Akron +13

The Key: I'm going to fade Western Michigan in this spot Sunday.  The Broncos are coming off a 7-overtime 71-68 victory at Buffalo.  I'm just not sure what they have left in the tank now, and not only do they have to win, but they have to win by 2 touchdowns to cover the spread against a game Akron team.  This is an Akron team that has been competitive in every game outside of its Power 5 opponents in Penn State and Iowa State.  But WMU didn't fare well in its two Power 5 games either against USC and Michigan State.  I really think this game will be closer than the oddsmakers expect.  The Zips are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Akron.

6* NFL Blowout Game of the Week on New Orleans Saints -4

The Key: The New Orleans Saints are off a bye and off two straight wins by a combined 54-13 final.  Their 34-13 win at Carolina looks mighty impressive right now.  The Lions haven't been as good as their 3-2 record statistically as they have benefited from a +8 turnover differential.  But the Lions have key injuries on their offensive line and on defense, and Matthew Stafford is starting to feel the effects of being sacked 12 times over the last 2 weeks.  He is hobbled coming into this one and won't be 100%.  The Saints are 8-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.  Take New Orleans.

6* Miami/GA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Georgia Tech +6.5

The Key: The situation couldn't be better for Georgia Tech here.  The Yellow Jackets are coming off their bye week.  They should be 4-0 but they lost 41-42 to Tennessee despite outgaining them by 300 yards.  They have outgained their 4 opponents by a combined 877 yards this season, or by an average of 219 yards per game.  TaQuon Marshall may be the best QB in Georgia Tech history when it's all said and done.  He has rushed for 523 yards and 9 scores, while averaging 10.1 yards per attempt passing and 4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions.  Miami is primed for a letdown following a huge last-second 24-20 win at Florida State to end its losing streak to the Seminoles.  Not to mention the Hurricanes lost their two best playmakers in that game in RB Mark Walton and WR Ahmmon Richards.  Walton is out for the season, while Richards is questionable with a hamstring injury.  Paul Johnson is 6-0 ATS in road games off 4 or more consecutive ATS wins as the coach of Georgia Tech.  Mark Richt is 2-14 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a 75% or better win percentage in all games as a head coach.  Take Georgia Tech.

6* Kansas/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on UNDER 65

The Key: There is a 100% chance of rain in Ames, Iowa Saturday.  Both the Jayhawks and Cyclones are going to be asked to run the football a lot due to the weather conditions.  And neither of them have been very successful on the ground this season.  Iowa State is averaging just 107 rushing yards per game, while Kansas is averaging 161.  Iowa State has been good against the run, giving up 130 yards per game.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.  Iowa State and Kansas haven't combined for more than 55 points in any of their last 4 meetings.  The Cyclones are 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Jayhawks last 24 road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings at Iowa State.  Take the UNDER.

6* Yankees/Astros American League *CA$H COW* on Houston -1.5 (+115)

The Key: The Astros have a huge advantage on the mound in Game 1 of this series.  Dallas Keuchel is 7-3 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 12 home starts this year.  Keuchel is 5-2 with a 1.24 ERA in 7 lifetime starts vs. New York.  Masahiro Tanaka is 4-7 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 15 road starts this year.  Tanaka is 0-3 with an 8.86 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Houston.  Take Houston on the Run Line.

7* Clemson/Syracuse ACC Total of the Month on OVER 57

The Key: Look for a shootout in this ACC showdown between Clemson and Syracuse tonight.  Dino Babers has brought his up-tempo game to Syracuse and they're having some success with it.  They are scoring 32 points per game and averaging 467 yards per game this season.  And they've played some great teams in LSU and NC State.  Their defense leaves a lot to be desired, so a Clemson offense that is averaging 35 points and 471 yards per game should have its way.  The Tigers hung 54 points on the Orange last year.  But the Orange lost starting QB Eric Dungey in the first quarter of that game.  Dungey is back healthy this season and playing very well.  Clemson is 8-0 OVER in its last 8 games as a road favorite of 14.5 or more.  Take the OVER.

7* Eagles/Panthers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -3

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are going to be without two key pieces on offense.  Running back Wendell Smallwood and tackle Lane Johnson are both out.  You wouldn't think a tackle would make that much of a difference, but in Johnson's case it has.  Carson Wentz is 9-2 in games that Johnson plays, and 2-8 in games that he does not.  He has thrown 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions with Johnson, and 6 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions without him.  I love the way the Panthers are playing right now with back-to-back huge road wins over the Patriots and Lions.  Cam Newton finally looks fully healthy, and he has found some new favorite targets in Devin Funchess and Ed Dickson.  Funchess has 3 TD receptions in his last 2 games, and Dickson had 175 receiving yards against the Lions.  Ron Rivera is 32-13 ATS off a road game as the coach of Carolina.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Carolina.

6* Cubs/Nationals NL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 7.5

The Key: All hands will be on deck for this Game 5 between the Cubs and Nationals.  Both offenses have struggled thus far in the series, and that should continue here tonight.  Plus Kyle Hendricks has been great with a 0.70 ERA in his last 4 starts.  And Kendricks sports a 2.17 ERA in 6 lifetime starts vs. Washington.  Gio Gonzalez is having a great season overall with a 3.01 ERA in 33 starts and a 2.90 ERA in 16 home starts.  If he does happen to struggle early, he will get the quick hook, and even the likes of Max Scherzer may be available for the Nationals.  The UNDER is 24-5-1 in Hendricks' last 30 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Hendricks' last 11 road starts.  The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Nationals' last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Hendricks' last 4 starts vs. Nationals.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the 4 games in this series thus far.  Take the UNDER.

6* Texas State/Lafayette Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Lafayette -13.5

The Key: The Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns should blow out Texas State like they usually do.  Lafayette is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Texas State, winning all 4 games by 22 or more points.  Texas State is once again one of the worst teams in college football this season.  The Bobcats are 1-5 this season.  They have lost by 30, 35 and 18 points in their last 3 games coming in.  Their offense has been terrible in averaging just 14.5 points per game.  Their defense hasn't been any better, giving up 33.7 points per game.  Bets on home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage between 40-49% on the season, in conference games are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Lafayette.

6* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on OVER 49

The Key: I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the OVER in this game Wednesday.  The value is there because of the fact that South Alabama and Troy have combined to go 9-1 to the under in their 10 games thus far.  Now this is the lowest total of any game that they have played outside the 48.5-point total in the Troy/LSU game.  The other nine have all been higher than 50 points.  South Alabama is 6-0 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.  The OVER is 20-9 in Trojans last 29 home games, and 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 road games.  Take the OVER.

7* Vikings/Bears NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +4

The Key: The Chicago Bears have won 8 of their last 9 home meetings with the Minnesota Vikings.  They are 2-0 ATS at home this season, nearly beating both the Falcons and Steelers.  The Vikings are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Teams coming off Thursday games are 7-0 ATS this season.  The Bears have had extra time to get Mitch Trubisky ready for his first start after playing last Thursday.  Take Chicago.

6* Nationals/Cubs National League *CA$H COW* on Washington -110

The Key: Max Scherzer is arguably the best starter in baseball.  Having him for Game 3 here is huge for the Nationals because the winner of this game will likely win the series.  I think Scherzer gets it done against the inexperienced Jose Quintana, who is making his postseason debut.  Scherzer is 10-2 with a 1.82 ERA in 16 road starts this year.  Quintana is 6-4 with a 4.94 ERA in 16 home starts.  Scherzer is 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA in 6 lifetime starts vs. Chicago.  Scherzer is 21-4 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 3 seasons.  Washington is 12-1 (+10.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 this season.  Take Washington.

7* NFL Sunday Night Game of the Year on Houston Texans +1

The Key: Deshaun Watson is 2-1 as the starting quarterback of the Texans.  They could be 3-0 as their only loss came on the road at New England 33-36 as the Patriots scored a touchdown in the closing seconds to win.  The Texans bounced back with the most impressive performance of Week 4, winning 57-14 at home against the Texans.  Watson accounted for 5 total touchdowns, and the defense held the Titans to just 195 total yards while forcing 5 turnovers.  Now the Texans still get no love from the books as home dogs here to the Chiefs.  It's because the Chiefs are overvalued right now due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start, which included their miracle cover on Monday Night Football against the Redskins.  Now the Chiefs are on a short week and playing their 2nd straight National TV game.  The spot favors the Texans here.  Kansas City is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 4 consecutive games.  Take Houston.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cleveland Browns +1

The Key: The Jets, Colts and Browns are the 3 worst teams in the NFL and it's very close between all 3 power-ratings wise.  The Browns were favored at Indianapolis in Week 3, and now they're home underdogs to  the Jets in Week 5.  The Jets were 6.5-point home dogs to the Dolphins, and 3.5-point home dogs to the Jaguars.  Now they're favored on the road here after winning those 2 games.  Those games were terrible travel spots for the Dolphins and Jaguars.  The Dolphins were on the road for 5 straight weeks since the preseason and were coming back from a West Coast trip to San Diego.  The Jaguars were coming back from London.  The line value is clearly with the home dog Browns here.  They'll be desperate to get their first win, and I think they get it done.  The Jets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 following 2 consecutive home wins.  New York is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  Bets on any team with a poor offensive (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a loss by 21 or more points are 23-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Cleveland.

6* NFL Blowout Game of the Week on Cincinnati Bengals -3

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are just 1-3 on the season, while the Buffalo Bills are 3-1.  So the Bengals are undervalued right now, while the Bills are getting more love than they should be.  The Bengals have played well the last two weeks against the Packers and Browns, and the switch to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has made a huge difference.  Andy Dalton has completed 81% of his passes the last 2 weeks and has thrown 6 touchdowns against zero interceptions.  The Bills were fortunate to beat the Falcons last week because Atlanta lost its top 2 receivers in Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and they got a fluke defensive TD that should have been called an incomplete pass instead of a fumble by Matt Ryan.  The true colors of these two teams will show this week as the Bengals are a playoff contender, while the Bills are frauds.  And the Bengals have a bye next week so they want to go into it feeling good about the outlook of the rest of the season.  Bets on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Cincinnati.

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are just 1-3 on the season, while the Buffalo Bills are 3-1.  So the Bengals are undervalued right now, while the Bills are getting more love than they should be.  The Bengals have played well the last two weeks against the Packers and Browns, and the switch to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has made a huge difference.  Andy Dalton has completed 81% of his passes the last 2 weeks and has thrown 6 touchdowns against zero interceptions.  The Bills were fortunate to beat the Falcons last week because Atlanta lost its top 2 receivers in Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and they got a fluke defensive TD that should have been called an incomplete pass instead of a fumble by Matt Ryan.  The true colors of these two teams will show this week as the Bengals are a playoff contender, while the Bills are frauds.  And the Bengals have a bye next week so they want to go into it feeling good about the outlook of the rest of the season.  Bets on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Cincinnati.

6* DBacks/Dodgers NL West *BAILOUT* on OVER 8

The Key: I cashed in the OVER 7 yesterday with ease as 14 combined runs were scored between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.  I'm going back to the well here as I think this 8-run total is too low.  Rich Hill and Robbie Ray have posted good numbers this season.  But Ray was forced into action in the wild card game and won't be on normal rest.  And he has struggled of late.  Hill can't figure out Arizona, going 1-6 with a 5.02 ERA in 10 lifetime starts against them.  The OVER is 5-0 in DBacks last 5 vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 home games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Ray's last 4 starts vs. Dodgers.  Take the OVER.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Texas A&M +27

The Key: Alabama has won its last two games by a combined score of 125-3.  It's safe to say the betting public is all over them now, which has inflated this number on the road against Texas A&M this week.  The Aggies could easily be 5-0 if not for blowing a massive lead against UCLA in the opener.  And Kevin Sumlin has found a way to be competitive against Nick Saban in recent years.  The Aggies have only lost by more than 19 points once in their last five meetings since 2012, and that was on the road.  Defensive coordinator John Chavis has turned this Aggies stop unit into a respectable one.  And what can keep Texas A&M in this game is a run defense that is only giving up 96 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season.  Bets on home dogs of 14.5 or more points off two or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season are 40-11 ATS since 1992.  Take Texas A&M.

6* Arkansas/South Carolina SEC *CA$H COW* on Arkansas -2.5

The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks are frauds, and that has shown the last few weeks.  It also didn't help that they lost their best player in WR Deebo Samuel to a season-ending injury in Week 2.  The Gameocks were outgained by 258 yards in their opener against South Carolina yet somehow won the game.  Then they beat a bad Missouri team before falling at home to Kentucky 13-23.  They barely beat a bad LA Tech team 17-16 at home, and then lost 17-24 at Texas A&M last week while getting outgained by 117 yards.  Arkansas' only two losses have come against TCU and to Texas A&M in overtime.  I think the Razorbacks are the better team, and they only have to win by a field goal or more to cover this spread.  Arkansas is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games where the total is 45.5 to 49.  Bets against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 26-6 ATS since 1992.  Take Arkansas.

6* AAC Game of the Week on Tulane -4.5

The Key: Good spot here for Tulane.  The Green Wave had a bye last week following a grueling stretch against Navy, Oklahoma and Army in consecutive weeks.  Now they'll be rejuvenated and they get to go up against a tired Tulsa team that hasn't had a bye and is coming off a grueling stretch of their own with Toledo, New Mexico and Navy in consecutive weeks.  This is the perfect matchup for a run-heavy Tulane team that averages 244 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  The Golden Hurricane allow 320 rushing yards and 6.7 per carry this season.  The Green Wave are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Tulsa is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 after being outgianed by 125 or more yards in 2 consecutive games.  The Green Wave are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Take Tulane.

6* Diamondbacks/Dodgers NL West *BAILOUT* on OVER 7

The Key: Give me the OVER in this game between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.  Clayton Kershaw sports a 4.23 ERA in his last 5 starts and just doesn't look completely healthy.  He has posted a 4.55 ERA in the playoffs lifetime as well.  Taijuan Walker is just an average starter, and the Dodgers could cover this 7-run total on their own.  Walker is 2-1 with a 4.79 ERA in 4 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles.  Walker sports a 5.27 ERA in his last 3 starts coming in as well.  Take the OVER.

7* Boise/BYU ESPN Friday Night Lights on BYU +9

The Key: The BYU Cougars are a prideful team and clearly aren't happy with their 1-4 start.  They gave the game away against Utah State by committing a ridiculous 7 turnovers last week.  They held Utah State to just 288 total yards to prove that their defense isn't broken.  Boise State just can't be laying this kind of price on the road tonight with what we've seen from them so far.  They lost their last game 23-42 at home to Virginia as 14-point favorites, failing to cover by 33 points.  The home team is 6-0 SU in the last 6 meetings.  The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Boise State.  The Broncos are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Boise State is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of its last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  Take BYU.

6* Pats/Bucs Thursday NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 54.5

The Key: The over has cashed in all four Patriots games this season.  That has this total set too high now at 54.5.  I think the value is clearly with the under now and I look for this one to be more low-scoring than the books anticipate.  Both defenses cannot continue to be as poor as they've been up to this point, especially the Patriots.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Patriots last 9 games on grass.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Bucs last 5 home games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.  Take the UNDER.

7* Louisville/NC State ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on NC State +4.5

The Key: Louisville is just a one-man show with Lamar Jackson.  He has a shaky offensive line, and now he's without his best receiver in Jaylen Smith due to a wrist injury.  That makes this a bad matchup against NC State, which has one of the more underrated defensive lines in the country and NFL talent up front.  Ryan Finley actually has a better QBR than Jackson this season.  Finley has thrown 9 touchdowns and zero interceptions on the year.  It's revenge time after NC State was blown out 13-54 at Louisville last season.  It was a clear flat spot for the Wolfpack after they had lost in overtime to Clemson 17-24 the previous week.  They didn't even show up.  They will Thursday night in front of a packed home crowd to claim their revenge.  Take NC State.

6* Red Sox/Astros American League *CA$H COW* on Houston -129

The Key: Justin Verlander is 5-1 with a 1.06 ERA following his trade-deadline acquisition from the Detroit Tigers.  He has been absolutely dealing, and deserves this Game 1 start.  The Astros come into the postseason with a ton of momentum as a team after going 6-1 in their final 7 games, scoring 11 or more runs in 4 of those victories.  The Red Sox slumped to a 2-5 finish and scored 4 or fewer runs in 5 of those 7 games.  Chris Sale was very hittable down the stretch.  The right-handed heavy lineup of the Astros makes this a bad matchup for him, especially with the short porch in left field.  Verlander sports a 2.77 ERA in 18 lifetime starts vs. Boston.  He sports a 1.37 ERA in his last 7 starts against Boston, giving up only 7 earned runs in 46 innings.  Verlander is 22-4 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season lifetime.  Take Houston.

7* Rockies/DBacks National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -168

The Key: Simply put, Zack Greinke doesn't lose at home.  He is used to the playoff atmosphere as well, which is a big advantage for him over the Colorado Rockies and Jon Gray.  Greinke is 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 18 home starts this year.  Gray is 5-3 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Greinke has allowed 4 earned runs or less in 7 starts starts against Colorado, 3 or less in 6 of those, and 2 or less in 4 of those.  Gray is 2-2 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts versus Arizona.  Greinke is 91-25 (+46.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more lifetime.  Greinke is 75-19 (+40.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more lifetime.  Greinke is 15-3 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.  Take Arizona.

6* Twins/Yankees American League *Total* Annihilator on OVER 7.5

The Key: Both Ervin Santana and Luis Severino are having fine seasons for their respective teams.  But this total is too low here and we should see plenty of runs in hitter-friendly Yankees Stadium.  Santana doesn't enjoy facing the Yankees, going 6-10 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 20 lifetime starts against them.  Severino sports a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in one lifetime start versus Minnesota.  The Yankees are scoring 5.3 RPG overall and 5.6 RPG at home.  The Twins are scoring 5.0 RPG overall and 4.9 RPG on the road.  The Twins are 25-9 OVER in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better over the last 2 seasons.  The Twins are 34-12 OVER in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better over the last 2 seasons.  The Yankees are 8-0 OVER in home games after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games this season.  The OVER is 10-2 in Severino's last 12 starts, and 7-1 in his last 8 home starts.  Take the OVER.

7* Redskins/Chiefs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Redskins +7

The Key: Don't look now but the Washington Redskins are 2-1 and dominating their opponents statistically.  They have outgained their opponents by 101.7 yards per game on the season.  Their defense is playing extremely well, giving up just 272 yards per game.  The Chiefs are getting too much respect due to their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start.  But they have only outgained their opponents by 28.3 yards per game.  They haven't been as dominant as their record and point differential would suggest.  Kansas City is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 3 consecutive games.  Washington is 43-24 ATS in its last 67 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Redskins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Chiefs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take Washington.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on San Francisco 49ers +7

The Key: The San Francisco 49ers have been very impressive in their last two games.  They only lost by a field goal in Seattle as two-touchdown dogs, and they should have beaten the Rams are 3-point dogs in a 2-point loss last Thursday.  And that's key because now the 49ers have extra rest and prep time to get ready for the Cardinals this week.  The Cardinals have to work on a short week and try and recover from their 17-28 loss to the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  I do not think the 49ers should be catching a touchdown given this favorable situation for them.  Arizona is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  San Francisco is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Arizona.  Take San Francisco.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

The Key: The fact that the Chargers are taking money and moving this line up to -2.5 is mind-blowing.  The Eagles are clearly the better team in this matchup, and the Chargers simply find ways to lose.  The Chargers are just 9-26 straight up over the past 3 seasons combined, winning roughly 25% of their games.  They can't be favored here against an upstart Eagles team that is one of the most improved in the NFL this season.  Philip Rivers should have already retired as he looks old and slow and has lost his arm strength.  He threw three interceptions against the Chiefs last week and it could have been more.  The Eagles are 8-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.  The Chargers have zero home-field advantage right now as the LA fans just aren't into them, especially after their 0-3 start.  Los Angeles is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 home games. The Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take Philadelphia.

6* Titans/Texans AFC South *CA$H COW* on Houston +3

The Key: Deshaun Watson led the Texans to a win in Cincinnati and a near-win in New England in his first two NFL starts.  If that's not impressive, I don't know what is.  This guy just isn't getting the love he deserves from oddsmakers as the Texans are now a home dog to the Titans.  Now Watson will have another healthy weapon back in Will Fuller, who is expected to make his season debut.  Having Fuller, DeAndre Hopkins and Bruce Ellington gives the Texans one of the most underrated receiving corps in the league.  The Titans are in a tough spot after a physical game against the Seahawks last week.  And after beating Seattle, it's certainly a bit of a letdown spot for them here.  Teams have not done well the week after facing Seattle over the past decade.  The Texans have won 8 of their last 10 meetings with the Titans, and they are a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings.  Take Houston.

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Fresno State -9

The Key: I think the Fresno State Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have been undervalued in the markets, going 3-0 ATS in their 3 games this season.  They won 66-0 over Incarnate Ward, then had to play Alabama and Washington in back-to-back weeks.  So their bye week came at the perfect time last week, and now they'll be fresh and ready to go in their Mountain West opener.  Nevada is clearly not any good this season, going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS.  They lost at home to Idaho State as a 32.5-point favorite, then were punked 7-45 at Washington State the last two weeks.  The Wolf Pack come in on normal rest and won't be nearly as fresh as Fresno.  Jeff Tedford is one of the best offensive minds in college football, so look for Fresno to score at will here against this suspect Nevada defense.  Fresno is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Fresno State.

6* Clemson/VA Tech ACC Game of the Week on Virginia Tech +7.5

The Key: Virginia Tech showed it could play with eventual national champion Clemson in a 35-42 loss last year in the ACC Championship Game on a neutral field.  Now they get their shot at revenge on the Tigers at home in Blacksburg with ESPN College Game Day on site.  It's safe to say it's going to be a madhouse.  I fully expect the Hokies to pull the upset, but we'll take the 7.5 points just in case.  Clemson was actually tied 7-7 with Boston College at home last week as 33-point favorites, so they are vulnerable.  The Hokies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Hokies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Virginia Tech.