Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Auburn/Ole Miss SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss +4.5 

The Key: In their first meeting back on January 9th, Ole Miss led Auburn 45-35 at halftime.  The Rebels led with 10 minutes left but then went cold, eventually losing 70-85 as 12-point underdogs.  Now the Rebels will want revenge at home this time around after blowing that double-digit lead in the first meeting.  And Ole Miss grabbed that lead despite playing without their best player in DeAndre Burnett, who sat out with an illness.  Burnett is one of the best players in the country as he averages 15.2 points and 4.5 assists per game.  He is irreplaceable on this team.  Now the Rebels are healthy for the rematch.  Ole Miss is 10-3 at home this season.  The Rebels are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, beating the likes of South Carolina, Mississippi State, Florida and Alabama.  Take Ole Miss. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on San Antonio Spurs -7.5 

The Key: Few teams have dominated the Denver Nuggets like the San Antonio Spurs.  The Spurs are 14-1 SU in their last 15 meetings with the Nuggets.  Their last 4 wins have all come by 14 points or more.  Their last 12 wins have all come by at least 8 points.  Now they are only laying 7.5 points here and it’s too good to pass up.  Denver is playing the second of a back-to-back after losing at home to the Celtics last night as well.  Take San Antonio. 

6* Monday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Celtics/Nuggets OVER 205 

The Key: The Boston Celtics have been playing without their best defender in March Smart the last few games.  It’s no wonder they have struggled defensively, which is a big reason they are just 1-5 in their last 6 games overall.  The Celtics have allowed 102-plus points in 6 of their last 7 games overall after being the best defensive team in the NBA up to that point.  They are still being treated like the best defensive team with a total of only 205 points here against the Denver Nuggets.  I expect this to be a shootout against a Nuggets team that is averaging 109.0 points per game at home this year.  These teams played in a shootout in their first meeting, a 124-118 win by Boston at home on December 13th that saw 242 combined points.  We don’t need anywhere near 242 to get the OVER tonight.  The OVER is 8-1 in Celtics last 9 Monday games.  The OVER is 14-3-1 in Nuggets last 18 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Take the OVER. 

7* Northwestern/Michigan Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Northwestern +7.5 

The Key: After a slow start to the season the Northwestern Wildcats have turned it on of late.  They have won two straight 70-61 at home over Penn State and 77-69 at Minnesota.  Now they’ve had nearly a week off having last played on Tuesday.  They will be rested and ready to go tonight against the Michigan Wolverines.  I think the Wolverines are in a hangover spot from their 88-92 loss at 3rd-ranked Purdue last time out.  Northwestern is 15-6 ATS in road games when playing just its 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons.  The Wildcats are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.  The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.  Take Northwestern. 

7* Big East Game of the Month on Seton Hall -5 

The Key: The Seton Hall Pirates come in hungry for a victory after losing two straight and 3 of their last 4 overall.  And they’ve had over a week off having last played on January 20th, so they have been steaming for over a week about it.  Look for them to take out their frustration on the lowly DePaul Blue Demons.  DePaul is just 9-11 overall and 2-6 in Big East play.  Seton Hall has won 4 straight meetings with DePaul.  The Pirates are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS loss.  The Blue Demons are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a win.  DePaul is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 home games.  The Blue Demons are 0-8 ATS in home games with a total set of 145 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.  The Pirates are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 road games off a home loss.  Take Seton Hall. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +10.5 

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets have gone 30-18 ATS in all games, including 17-9 ATS in road games this season.  They have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They have a deep bench that will help them overcome this back-to-back situation after losing in Milwaukee last night.  Plus, it’s a short trip to Minnesota and they had two days off prior to the Milwaukee game.  This is a tough situation mentally for Minnesota, which lost 113-126 at Golden State on Thursday.  The Timberwolves have played five of their last six games on the road and are tired, plus they have the distraction of their first game back home here following a long trip.  And they certainly won’t be as hungry to face the Nets as they were to face the Warriors.  The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.  Take Brooklyn. 

7* WCC Game of the Year on Pacific +12 

The Key: Pacific is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games overall.  Yet, the Tigers still lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as 12-point underdogs to BYU.  They already beat BYU 67-66 at home as 6.5-point underdogs on January 6th in their first meeting.  I think the Cougars are in a hangover spot here following their 62-75 loss at St. Mary’s on Thursday.  The Tigers are 9-0 ATS off a conference games this season.  Take Pacific. 

6* San Francisco/Gonzaga WCC *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +19 

The Key: San Francisco only lost 65-75 as 14.5-point home underdogs to Gonzaga in their first meeting this season on January 13th.  Now two weeks later they get another shot at the Zags and are catching 19 points this time around.  I think they can hang around and stay within the number here Saturday.  The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  The Dons are 110-68 ATS in their last 178 conference road games.  San Francisco is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games after 15-plus games against teams who average 62 or more shots per game.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Georgetown/Creighton Big East *CA$H COW* on Georgetown +12.5 

The Key: Georgetown suffered its most embarrassing defeat of the season in a 66-90 loss at home to Creighton back on January 6th in their first meeting.  The Hoyas have not forgotten, and they are going to want revenge.  The Bluejays are much more vulnerable now that their leading rebounder and third-leading scorer Martin Krampelj (11.9 PPG, 8.1 RPG) has been lost for the season as of January 18th to a torn ACL.  The Hoyas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss.  Georgetown is 21-7-1 ATS in its last 29 road games off 3 or more consecutive home games.  The Bluejays are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win.  Take Georgetown. 

6* Cincinnati/Memphis AAC *CA$H COW* on Memphis +11.5 

The Key: Memphis will be looking to avenge an ugly 48-82 road loss at Cincinnati on December 31st in their first meeting this season.  Now the Tigers get the Bearcats at home and are catching a whopping 11.5 points.  Memphis has been much better since that defeat.  The Tigers ar e4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in road games off two straight games as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.  The Bearcats are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 road games off 10 or more consecutive wins.  The Bearcats are simply getting too much love from the books right now.  Take Memphis. 

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Chicago Bulls -4 

The Key: The Bulls are now 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall and have been the most profitable team in the NBA to back during this stretch.  But they continue to lack the respect they deserve from the books.  I think they’ll be hungry to bounce back from two straight losses tonight.  And the Lakers come in getting too much respect after going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  But 6 of those 7 wins came at home.  They went 1-2 on the road during this span with losses by 24 at Oklahoma City and by 9 at Memphis.  The Lakers are just 6-15 on the road this season.  The Bulls are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The Lakers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Chicago. 

6* Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on UCLA -14 

The Key: UCLA comes in hungry for a victory tonight following 3 straight losses.  Now the Bruins will take out their frustration on the worst team in the Pac-12 in California tonight.  UCLA already beat Cal 107-84 on the road in their first meeting this season and should have no problem covering 14 in the rematch at home tonight.  Cal is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games overall, losing 5 of those 6 games by double-digits.  Cal is 3-14 ATS when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons.  The Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take UCLA. 

7* T’Wolves/Warriors TNT *BAILOUT* on UNDER 228 

The Key: The Timberwolves and Warriors have combined for 228 or fewer points in 7 straight meetings when you don’t include overtime.  They have combined for 228 or less at the end of regulation in 11 of the last 12 meetings as well.  This total has been set too high tonight.  Golden State is 32-15 UNDER in its last 47 home games after a game where it made 55% or better.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games when playing on 0 days rest.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings.  Take the UNDER. 

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers have regained their home-court advantage in recent weeks, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that they have gotten healthy.  The Blazers are 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Now they face a Minnesota Timberwolves team that will likely be without both Jimmy Butler and Jamal Crawford tonight.  They should get the win and cover as only 3.5-point home favorites.  The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Blazers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with Minnesota.  Take Portland. 

6* Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford +9 

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal are playing too well right now to be catching 9 points from the USC Trojans.  Stanford is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall.  Its only loss came 71-73 as 6-point home underdogs to Arizona, perhaps the best team in the Pac-12.  The Cardinal have wins over Arizona State, USC and UCLA along the way with 4 outright upsets during this stretch.  Now they face USC for a second time, and while the Trojans may have their revenge, asking them to win by double-digits is too much.  Stanford is 8-0 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or better after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Stanford. 

6* Celtics/Lakers TNT *BAILOUT* on Boston -5 

The Key: The Boston Celtics come in hungry for a victory following a season-high 3-game losing streak.  I expect them to get back on track against the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  The Celtics have won 4 straight meetings with the Lakers all by 6 points or more.  They won their last two trips to Los Angeles by 20 and 7 points.  The Celtics are 11-2 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the past 2 seasons.  The Celtics are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games.  Take Boston. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +11.5 

The Key: Vanderbilt will be looking to avenge an 84-92 home loss to Tennessee on January 9th earlier this month.  That was exactly two weeks ago today.  There’s no question the Commodores will want this game more against their in-state rivals now, and they are catching 11.5 points in the rematch.  The road team has dominated this series.  The road team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  The Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Tennessee.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Commodores are 7-0 ATS in road games when revenging a home loss over the last 3 seasons.  Take Vanderbilt. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Philadelphia 76ers -3 

The Key: The 76ers are rolling right now having gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  They should make easy work of the Memphis Grizzlies tonight now.  The Grizzlies have a laundry list of injuries that the 76ers can take advantage of.  They are without key players Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons, James Ennis and JaMychal Green.  They also have both Dillon Brooks and Jarell Martin listed as questionable tonight, as well as Andrew Harrison and Brandan Wright both probable.  They are running out of bodies and won’t be able to compete with the recent buzz saw that is the 76ers.  Take Philadelphia. 

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +7 

The Key: Iowa State will be looking to avenge a 74-70 home loss to Texas in their first meeting this season.  This is a Texas team that is now playing without its best player in Andrew Jones since that first meeting.  The Longhorns were just blasted 51-86 at West Virginia over the weekend to show just how poor of shape they are in right now.  The Cyclones have won 2 of their last 3 with a 10-point win over Baylor and an 18-point blowout of Texas Tech.  They are the better team right now and should not be getting 7 points in this rematch.  Each of the last 11 meetings have been decided by 10 points or fewer, including 5 of the last 8 by 4 points or less.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Jags/Patriots AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 46

The Key: The Jaguars have a Top 2 defense this season.  They have the top-ranked pass defense.  They have the formula and the players to limit what the Patriots can do offensively, which few teams can claim.  But the Jaguars also have one of the worst offenses and one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.  That’s why they go with a run-heavy approach, shortening the game and playing to the strength of their defense.  The Patriots have been awesome defensively down the stretch.  They have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  I certainly don’t foresee the Jaguars topping 17 points in this one.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off a big road win scoring 31 or more points are 28-6 since 1983.  Take the UNDER. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Atlanta Hawks -1.5 

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are in a hangover spot Saturday.  They just lost to the defending champion Warriors 112-119 at home last time out.  It has been very profitable betting against teams the game after they have played Golden State this season.  The Hawks are playing well, going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  They are coming off back-to-back upset home victories over the Spurs and Pelicans and are playing great right now. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Atlanta.  The favorites is 42-17 ATS in the last 59 meetings.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Missouri Valley *CA$H COW* on Drake +2.5 

The Key: The Drake Bulldogs have been the most underrated team in the Missouri Valley this season.  They are legit contenders.  Drake is 6-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last 8 games overall.  The Bulldogs are a perfect 7-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this year, winning by 20.7 PPG.  Missouri State has lost 3 of its last 4 road games to Oral Roberts, Illinois State and Evansville.  Missouri State is 9-21 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.  Drake is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last 2 seasons.  Take Drake. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Ole Miss +8 

The Key: Arkansas cannot be this heavily favored with the way they are playing right now.  The Razorbacks are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games.  They have been exposed in SEC play.  Ole Miss has shown they can compete with anyone.  The Rebels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.  They have played well whenever DeAndre Burnett has been in the lineup, and he missed one of those non-covers against Auburn.  Ole Miss is 11-0 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent over the last 2 seasons.  Take Ole Miss.

7* St. Bonaventure/Davidson ESPN 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Davidson -4.5 

The Key: St. Bonaventure is 0-3 in its last 3 true road games, losing by 10 at Dayton, by 7 at St. Joe’s and by 14 at Rhode Island.  Now the Bonnies have to face a hot Davidson team that has won 4 straight, including the last three by 27, 27 and 30 points with two of those three games on the road.  Davidson is 5-0 at home this season and winning by 25.6 points per game.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  The Bonnies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.  Take Davidson. 

6* UCLA/Oregon State Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Oregon State +1 

The Key: Oregon State is not getting the respect it deserves this season.  That has been evident in Pac-12 play as the Beavers have gone 4-1 ATS this year.  They are coming off back-to-back road loss at Arizona by 9 as 16-point dogs and at Arizona State by 2 as 12-point dogs.  Now they return home hungry for a victory tonight against UCLA.  I think UCLA is way overrated right now due to a soft conference schedule to open the season.  They have gone just 3-2 despite playing 3 home games against Utah, Colorado and Washington, and two road games at Stanford and California.  Those are 5 of the worst teams in the Pac-12.  Oregon State is 8-2 at home this season.  Bets on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after beating the spread by more than 6 points in 3 consecutive games again an opponent that went over the total by 42 or more points in their last five games are 30-9 ATS since 1997.  The Bruins are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  The Beavers are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Oregon State. 

7* 76ers/Celtics TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +5 

The Key: Look for the 76ers to be hungry after blowing a 22-point lead to the Celtics in London on January 11th less than a week ago.  They have won 5 of their last 6 games while going 5-1 ATS in the process.  Now they get perhaps a depleted Celtics team that has injuries to starting guards Kyrie Irving (shoulder) and Marcus Smart (Illness), who are both questionable to play tonight.  The 76ers are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Philadelphia is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 games following an ATS win.  Bets against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an ATS loss, an well-rested team playing just their 2nd game in 7 days are 33-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Chicago Bulls +8.5 

The Key: The Warriors are in a huge letdown spot tonight against the Chicago Bulls.  They had a big second half to pull away to beat Cleveland 118-108 on Martin Luther King Day.  Now they won’t bring the same kind of intensity against the Bulls tonight.  This is a Bulls team that has gone 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall and is fully capable of hanging with the Warriors with the way they have been playing.  They are also 14-7 SU in their last 21 games.  Chicago is 8-0 ATS off 2 consecutive home games this season.  The Bulls are 9-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins this season.  Take Chicago. 

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks -4 

The Key: I like the short price we are getting with the Milwaukee Bucks in this situation tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a loss in Miami on Sunday.  They haven’t had to wait long to get their revenge here Wednesday.  The home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings with all 5 wins coming by 6 points or more.  Miami is 1-10 ATS after having won 3 of its last 4 games this season.  Take Milwaukee. 

6* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas Tech -3.5 

The Key: The Texas Longhorns are without 2 of their top 4 scorers right now.  They are missing Andrew Jones (13.5 PPG) and Kerwin Roach II (10.3 PPG), their best two guards.  That’s going to make it difficult for them to compete in the rugged Big 12 that is likely the best conference in the country moving forward. Texas Tech is 15-2 and a clear contender to win the conference.  The Red Raiders are 12-5 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of greater than 60%.  The Longhorns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Texas Tech. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Boston Celtics -4.5 

The Key: The Celtics will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days tonight.  They made a trip over to London to face the 76ers on Thursday and have been off since.  They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the court tonight and build on their tremendous season with another victory over the Pelicans.  The Celtics are 8-1 ATS when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.  The Pelicans are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 road games off two straight overs.  Boston is 10-1 ATS versus good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists this season.  The Celtics are 15-2 ATS versus good shooting teams making 46% of their shots or more this season.  Take Boston. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Chicago Bulls PK 

The Key: The Heat will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a home win over the Bucks yesterday.  Now they have to come back and play this early start time against the Chicago Bulls with a long flight to Chicago overnight.  I like the situation for the Bulls, who will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  And the Bulls have been undervalued for quite some time now as they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  They have also won 13 of their last 20 games outright.  Chicago is 8-0 ATS against Southeast Division opponents this season.  The Bulls are 10-1 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Chicago is 8-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins this season.  Take Chicago. 

7* Jaguars/Steelers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -7 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers committed 5 turnovers and gave up two pick-6’s the first time these teams played.  But the Steelers have gone 10-1 since that loss to the Jaguars in Week 5.  And the only loss was to the Patriots on a controversial call that overturned a game-winning TD.  The Steelers are now basically fully healthy going into the playoffs for the first time in a long time.  They have a high-powered offense and an improved defense.  Blake Bortles won’t be able to keep up with a motivated Big Ben who will want to make amends for that 5-pick effort back in Week 5.  And Le’Veon Bell is primed for a huge game as he gets the bulk of the action in this game against a Jags run D that has been sub-par all season.  The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff home games, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.  Their experience wins out in this one.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Titans/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -13

The Key: No analysis Saturday due to a funeral

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +10

The Key: No analysis Saturday due to a funeral

6* Creighton/Xavier Big East *CA$H COW* on Xavier -3.5

The Key: No analysis Saturday due to a funeral

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Orlando Magic +10.5 

The Key: After losing 15 of their last 16 games overall, the Orlando Magic are starting to catch too many points on a nightly basis.  They have covered in 2 of their last 3 with a 4-point loss to the Cavs as 8.5-point dogs and a 7-point loss to the Bucks as 10-point dogs.  Now they are getting 10.5 against a Wizards team that has been upset in back-to-back home games by Milwaukee and Utah as 3.5 and 8-point favorites, respectively.  Washington is just 8-19 ATS as a favorite this season.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Orlando. 

6* Utah/UCLA Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Utah +6.5 

The Key: The Utah Utes have actually played their best basketball on the road this season.  They won 66-56 as 9.5-point dogs at Oregon and 66-64 as 1-point dogs at Oregon State in their last two road games.  They lost their last two home games to the two best teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona and Arizona State, so they’ll come in hungry for a victory against UCLA.  The Bruins are being overvalued right now because they have opened conference play with a softer schedule than anyone, going 3-1 against the likes of Washington State, Washington, Stanford and California.  They take a step up in competition here against the Utes, who are a balanced team with 5 players averaging double-digits scoring.  The last two meetings between these teams were decided by a total of 3 points with the road team winning 83-82 and 75-73.  UCLA is 0-7 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more against a Pac-12 opponent over the last 3 seasons.  Take Utah. 

7* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Sacramento Kings +1.5 

The Key: The Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days tonight.  They just got done upsetting the Warriors last night, so they won’t be able to match the intensity they played with in that game.  And Lou Williams won’t be going off for a career-high 50 points again.  And it’s worth noting hat two of the Big 4 for the Warriors sat that game out in Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.  The Clippers also have 6 key players who are either questionable or out, with 4 doubtful or out.  They won’t have the horses to be able to back up that effort last night.  Take Sacramento. 

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +1.5 

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have gone 13-2 this season.  Their two losses have come to Kansas by 4 and Oklahoma by 1, which is how close they are to being 15-0.  Now they take on a Texas team that will be without their best player in Andrew Jones, who averages 13.5 PPG while shooting 52.8% from the field and 47.5% on 3-pointers.  The Horned Frogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.  Take TCU. 

7* NBA Total of the Month on Blazers/Rockets OVER 214.5 

The Key: The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between Houston and Portland.  They have combined for 219 or more points in all 6 meetings.  They have averaged 231.2 combined points per game in those 6 meetings.  It’s easy to see why the price is right to pull the trigger on the OVER tonight.  Take the OVER. 

6* Atlantic 10 *CA$H COW* on St. Joe’s -4 

The Key: Just looking at recent home performances by George Mason it’s easy to see that St. Joe’s should have no problem winning this game by 5-plus points.  George Mason lost at home to Davidson by 27, at home to Penn State by 22 and at home to Georgia Southern by 23 in 3 of its last 4 home games.  The only exception was a 7-point win over lowly Morgan State.  St. Joe’s beat two of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 in VCU and St. Bonaventure in its last two games and is in a different class than GMU.  St. Joe’s is 9-1 ATS in January road games over the last 3 seasons.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take St. Joe’s. 

7* Purdue/Michigan Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Purdue -1.5 

The Key: Purdue is 15-2 and clearly one of the top teams in the country.  I think we are getting them at a cheap price here tonight as they go for their 12th straight victory.  Michigan has played a very soft schedule recently and will take a step up in class here.  Purdue is 9-1 ATS against teams who outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last 2 seasons.  The Boilermakers are 36-17-3 ATS in their last 56 games overall.  Purdue is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Purdue. 

6* Atlantic 10 *CA$H COW* on Duquesne +8.5 

The Key: The Duquesne Dukes are one of the more underrated teams in the country at 12-4 on the season.  They are catching too many points tonight against a VCU squad that is only 10-6 and getting too much love from their reputation of the past.  But this is one of the worst teams VCU has had in years.  The Dukes are 6-0 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.  These teams have played 2 common opponents.  Both are 2-0 with Duquesne winning by 19.5 PPG and VCU only winning by 11.5 PPG.  Bets on road games as an underdog or PK off a road blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent off a home win are 26-6 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Duquesne. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat +4.5 

The Key: This is a good situation to fade the Toronto Raptors.  They are coming off a 114-113 overtime win at Brooklyn last night in a very lackluster effort.  So now they’ll be playing the second of a back-to-back here, and they may not have one of their best players in Kyle Lowry, who is doubtful with a back injury suffered last night.  The Heat have played their best basketball on the road this year as they are 11-8 SU & 11-8 ATS on the highway.  Miami is 10-1 ATS off 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.  The Heat are 31-17 ATS as road underdogs over the last 2 years.  The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Raptors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games.  Take Miami. 

7* Alabama/Georgia NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3.5 

The Key: It’s not often you’ll get the opportunity to back Alabama as this small of a favorite.  After all, they have been favored in 110 for their last 111 games with the only exception being 1-point underdogs at Georgia in 2015.  They blew out the Bulldogs 38-10 that year.  Alabama is equipped to stop Georgia considering the Crimson Tide have the best rushing defense in the country, giving up just 2.7 yards per carry.  Nick Saban is great at making his opponents play left-handed.  He will make Georgia’s freshman QB try and beat them through the air, and I don’t think he is capable of it.  Speaking of Saban, he’s 11-0 all-time against former assistants, winning by 29 PPG on average.  Kirby Smart is simply overmatched here.  Take Alabama. 

6* Monday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Cavs/Timberwolves OVER 222 

The Key: We have two of the best offensive teams in the NBA and two of the worst defensive teams going at it tonight.  The result will be a shootout.  The Cavs rank 3rd in offensive efficiency with the Timberwolves 5th in the same category.  The Cavs are 27th in defensive efficiency while the Timberwolves are 20th.  In the two recent games Isaiah Thomas has played in the Cavs have combined with their opponents for 237 and 258 points against the Blazers and Magic, respectively.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in this series as the Cavs and Timberwolves have combined for 221 or more points in all 4 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns +9 

The Key: The Thunder have been terrible in this role all season.  They are just 5-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Oklahoma City is 1-10 ATS in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.  The Suns are 21-9 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 3 years.  The Thunder are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Suns are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take Phoenix. 

6* Iowa/Maryland Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Iowa +8 

The Key: The Hawkeyes will be hungry for their first Big Ten victory tonight after opening 0-4 in league play.  I think we are getting a great price with them tonight as 8-point road underdogs at Maryland because of their early struggles in conference action.  Maryland just lost by 30 to Michigan State and isn’t as good as it has been the past few seasons.  Bets on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home game where both teams score 75 points or more against an opponent off a road loss by 10 or more are 74-38 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Iowa. 

7* Panthers/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -6.5 

The Key: The Saints have owned the Panthers.  They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Carolina.  They have scores 31 and 34 points in their two meetings this season, outscoring the Panthers 65-34 in the process.  Their offense has had no trouble moving the ball and scoring points on Carolina’s defense.  That will continue here inside a hostile atmosphere in New Orleans.  Cam Newton went just 14-of-34 passing last week against the Falcons, and I don’t think the Panthers have the firepower on offense to keep up.  Newton has only thrown for over 185 yards twice in his last 9 games.  The Saints are 20-0 SU & 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20 home games when they have a winning record.  It’s just a completely different atmosphere inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome when they are good.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Falcons/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +6 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons won 10 games this season despite playing the 4th most difficult schedule in the NFL.  The Rams had a great season but only had to face the 17th schedule.  And teams that played the tougher schedule in these wild card games are 41-19 straight up and 41-18-1 against the spread.  They are 24-5 straight up and 23-5-1 against the number when the difference is 10 or more.  Take Atlanta. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +5.5 

The Key: The Celtics are coming off back-to-back huge home wins over the Cavaliers and Timberwolves.  Now they hit the road and will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I don’t think they’ll have much left for the Nets tonight, and they won’t be nearly as hungry as they were in their last two home games against Cleveland and Minnesota.  Boston just beat Brooklyn a few days ago on December 31st 108-105 as 9.5-point home favorites.  That places the Nets in revenge mode and they come in on two days’ rest so they will be the much fresher team.  Each of the last four meetings in this series were decided by single-digits with the Nets going 3-1 ATS in those games.  The Nets are 14-6 ATS against teams with a winning record this season.  The Celtics are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win.  Brooklyn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games following an ATS win.  The Nets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference teams.  Take Brooklyn. 

6* Missouri Valley *CA$H COW* on Evansville -1 

The Key: Evansville comes in hungry for a win today off 4 consecutive losses following a 10-2 start to the season.  It’s easy to see how they have lost four straight as they were PK or underdogs in all four games.  Three were on the road against Duke, Loyola-Chicago and Southern Illinois, while the other was a home loss to Illinois State.  So they are also in search of their first conference victory after losing their first three all by 7 points or less, and should get it today against Bradley.  Evansville is 14-6 SU & 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with Bradley.  The Purple Aces are 9-2 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last 2 seasons.  The Braves are 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Purple Aces are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Take Evansville. 

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Heat -5 

The Key: The Miami Heat have won 9 of their last 13 games coming into this game with the New York Knicks.  They are getting healthy and playing great basketball right now.  They now face the tired, struggling Knicks who are 1-6 in their last 7 games overall.  The Knicks are 3-13 on the road this season.  After losing in New York in December, Miami will want some revenge tonight.  The Heat are 25-11 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last 2 seasons.  Take Miami. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Arizona -3 

The Key: The Arizona Wildcats are on a roll right now.  They are 8-0 in their last 8 games overall with wins over the likes of UNLV, Texas A&M, Alabama, UConn and Arizona State.  They are ready for the Pac-12 schedule now that they are fully healthy, which has been the biggest reason for their resurgence.  They play a Utah team that already has a trio of blowout losses to UNLV, Butler and BYU.  And the Wildcats own the Utes, going 13-2 SU in the last 15 meetings and 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  The Wildcats have gone 10-2 ATS in conference road games over the past two seasons.  Take Arizona. 

6* Warriors/Mavs Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Golden State -7 

The Key: I know the Warriors have 3 players questionable to play tonight in Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala and Zaza Pachulia.  But it’s not going to matter because the Warriors still have the Big 3 of Durant, Curry and Thompson healthy and ready to go.  The head-to-head history is all you need to see to realize the Warriors are a good bet here as 7-point favorites over the Mavericks.  The Warriors are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Mavericks, winning all 8 meetings by at least 8 points.  They have won 6 of those 8 meetings by 15 points or more, including 2 wins by a combined 45 points already this season.  Take Golden State. 

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago Bulls +5.5 

The Key: The Chicago Bulls still cannot get any respect from oddsmakers tonight as 5.5-point home underdogs to the Toronto Raptors.  This despite the fact that they have gone 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They have also won 10 of their last 14 games outright.  The Raptors will be playing their 5th game in 9 days here off an overtime win over the Bucks.  The Raptors have gone just 11-9 on the road this season so it’s not like they have been juggernauts away from home.  The Bulls lost their 2 previous meetings in Toronto this season by 17 and by 5 points.  That sets them up for a great situation tonight.  The Bulls are 9-1 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season.  Take Chicago. 

6* Wednesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Loyola-Chicago -6.5 

The Key: Loyola is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  The Ramblers are 11-3 this season which includes a 65-59 win at Florida as 17-point underdogs.  They are 7-0 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 17.7 PPG.  Indiana State has some real bad losses of late with a 16-point road loss to Western Kentucky and a 5-point home loss to Elon.  The Sycamores are just 1-6 in all road games this season while giving up 79.1 PPG.  The Sycamores are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Loyola is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 Wednesday games.  The Ramblers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a win.  The Ramblers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, winning the two meetings last year by 15 on the road and by 18 at home.  Take Loyola-Chicago. 

7* SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee -5 

The Key: Rick Barnes has really turned around this Texas program already.  They are 9-3 this season with a 9-point loss to top-ranked Villanova, a 5-point loss to UNC, and a 2-point loss at Arkansas.  Give Auburn credit for a 12-1 record, but their schedule has been much easier than that of Tennessee.  They have only played 2 true road games this season at Dayton and at Murray State.  So this will be their toughest challenge of the season at Tennessee.  The Vols are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Auburn winning by 10, 38 and 26 points.  Tennessee is 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home meetings with Auburn as well.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Alabama/Clemson NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3 

The Key: Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide will be out for revenge from their loss to Clemson on the final play of the game as they were going for their 2nd consecutive national championship.  But now Clemson doesn’t have Deshaun Watson to dig them out of a hole again.  Saban is 10-2 straight up in revenge game as the coach of Alabama.  They had an extra week to get ready for this game because they finally didn’t make the SEC Championship.  Now they are getting healthy on defense for the first time in a long time.  Take Alabama. 

6* Georgia/Oklahoma NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Oklahoma +3 

The Key: Oklahoma has been able to handle the SEC and big teams better than basically any team in the country.  The Sooners are 4-0 in their last 4 against SEC opponents.  They are also 7-0 against the spread against teams that have won at least 75% of their games over the last 2 seasons.  They are 11-1 ATS against teams with winning records over the last 2 years as well.  I think Georgia is in for a rude awakening against by far the best offense they have seen this season, especially the best passing offense led by Baker Mayfield.  Take Oklahoma. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Dallas Mavericks +6 

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games despite being underdogs in all 3 contests.  They beat the Raptors outright as 5.5-point home underdogs, along with the Pacers as 3.5-point road dogs and the Pelicans as 6.5-point road dogs.  They are once again 6-point underdogs here to the Thunder, who have been the most overrated team in the NBA this season.  And now the Thunder are expected to be without 2 starters in Paul George and Andre Roberson Sunday.  Don’t be surprised when the Mavericks win another game outright as an underdog here.  Take Dallas. 

6* South Carolina/Ole Miss ESPN 2 *CA$H COW* on Ole Miss -2.5 

The Key: The Ole Miss Rebels come into conference season playing great, winning and covering as 17.5-point favorites over Texas A&M CC 85-63 and Bradley as 7.5-point favorites 82-59.  The South Carolina Gamecocks lost a lot from last year, while the Rebels returned almost everyone.  South Carolina already has lost by 16 to Tempe and by 16 to Clemson this season, while also getting upset as 8.5-point favorites against Illinois State.  Ole Miss beat South Carolina 75-70 as 3-point home dogs last year.  Now they should be able to win and cover again as 2.5-point home favorites this year.  Ole Miss is 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with South Carolina.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Bills/Dolphins AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -2.5 

The Key: The Bills must win to get into the playoffs.  They need some help, but first they must win.  The Dolphins can’t be trusted to offer much resistance with the way they are playing down the stretch.  They have gone just 2-7 in their last 9 games overall.  The Bills have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss coming to the Patriots on the road, and that game was tied 16-16 in the 3rd quarter and the Bills really got screwed by the refs having a touchdown called back that changed the complexion of the game.  The Bills just beat the Dolphins 24-16 at home a few weeks back.  Miami is 1-9 ATS off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons.  The Dolphins are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  I’ll side with the more motivated Bills in this matchup.  Take Buffalo. 

6* Cowboys/Eagles NFC East *CA$H COW* on Dallas -3 

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are more concerned with keeping guys healthy going into the postseason.  They just locked up the No. 1 seed so they have literally nothing to play for.  The Cowboys want to finish strong as evidenced by several quotes from their two offensive leaders in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott earlier in the week.  I think they roll the Eagles’ scrubs, who could enter this game as early as the first quarter.  Take Dallas.

6* Jets/Patriots AFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +15.5 

The Key: No team has played the Patriots tougher than the Jets over the last few years.  In fact, the Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Patriots.  They have only lost by more than 7 points once in their last 9 meetings.  Now they’re catching 15.5 points against the Patriots today and it’s simply too much.  Take New York. 

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Miami +6.5 

The Key: This will be a home game for the Miami Hurricanes played in the Orange Bowl down in Miami.  They had their two best performances of the season in home night games earlier this year.  They beat Virginia Tech 28-10 as 1.5-point favorites and Notre Dame 41-8 as 3.5-point underdogs.  I think they come forth with a huge effort here against Wisconsin to finish off their season the right way.  Miami will be the bet team Wisconsin has faced outside Ohio State as the Badgers played an extremely soft schedule.  And the Badgers were thoroughly outplayed by the Buckeyes in their lone loss of the season.  I think you can chalk up loss No. 2 for the Badgers here Saturday night.  Take Miami. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Orlando Magic +1.5 

The Key: The Miami Heat will be playing the second of a back-to-back following an ugly 87-111 home loss to the Brooklyn Nets last night.  The Magic are coming off a 102-89 upset home win over the Pistons.  That win coincided with the return of arguably their two best players in Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier from injury.  Having these 2 guys now healthy moving forward make a world of difference for the Magic.  The Magic are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Heat.  Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.  Take Orlando. 

6* Saturday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Harvard +13.5 

The Key: Harvard plays one of the toughest schedules year in and year out in non-conference play.  That has been the case again this season as the Crimson have played just 3 home games compared to 9 road games.  They only lost 70-79 as 18-point underdogs at Kentucky to show what they were capable of.  And I think they can stay within 13.5 points of Minnesota today.  The Gophers recently only beat Drake 68-67 as 21-point home favorites and Oral Roberts 77-63 as 22-point home favorites in 2 of their last 3 games coming in.  And the Gophers are going to be without their best player and floor general in senior PG Nate Mason, who is doubtful with an ankle injury.  Tommy Amaker is 6-0 ATS versus up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game as the coach of Harvard having never lost in this situation.  The Crimson are 11-2 ATS in December games over the last 3 seasons.  The Crimson are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Harvard. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Milwaukee Bucks +8.5 

The Key: Oklahoma City is back to getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to going 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.  But the schedule got much easier for them here of late as they have been favored by 4.5 or less in 7 of those 9 games.  Now they’re being asked to lay 8.5 points against one of the better teams in the NBA in the Milwaukee Bucks, and it’s too much.  Oklahoma City is 4-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  I’m not concerned the Bucks played last night because they are such a young team.  And the Bucks are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 0 days’ rest.  The Thunder are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Milwaukee. 

6* Friday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Indiana -23

The Key: At 2-10 on the season, Youngstown State stands no chance of staying within 23.5 points against Indiana on the road here Friday night.  The Penguins’ 2 wins this season came against Fanciscan University and Westminster, PA.  They have losses by 33, 20, 28, 28, 24 and 17 points already this season against teams that aren’t as good as Indiana.  The Hoosiers won by 28 at home against Tennessee Tech last time out as 13-point favorites.  They won’t be overlooking anyone after a couple upset losses already this season.  The Penguins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Youngstown State is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Hoosiers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Horizon League.  Take Indiana. 

7* Utah State/New Mexico State *Total* Annihilator on OVER 63 

The Key: Expect offensive fireworks between Utah State and New Mexico State tonight in the Arizona bowl in perfect conditions in Tucson.  Utah State scored 35 or more points in 6 of its 12 games this season.  New Mexico State scored 30 or more points in 7 of its 12 games.  Basically both teams need to get to 30 to secure this OVER, which shouldn’t be a problem.  New Mexico State is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games playing on 2 or more weeks rest.  The OVER is 7-0 in Aggies last 7 road games off an ATS loss.  The OVER is 9-3 in Utah State's last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 22-8 in NMSU's last 30 non-conference games.  The OVER is 41-20-2 in NMSU’s last 63 games overall.  Take the OVER.

7* Stanford/TCU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU -3 

The Key: I’m getting the better defense and the better offense in this game with TCU -3 here over Stanford.  I’m also getting a home-field advantage for the Horned Frogs as this game will be played in the Alamo Dome in San Antonio, Texas.  The Frogs give up just 17.6 PPG and 329 YPG which is ridiculously impressive in the Big 12 these days.  They also average 33.2 PPG and 414 YPG on offense.  Stanford only averages 32 PPG and 381 YPG on offense while giving up 21.5 PPG and 399 YPG on defense.  They are actually getting outgained by 18 YPG on the season, which is a sign that their 9-4 record is fraudulent.  Gary Patterson has had plenty of time to scheme and prepare for Stanford’s Bryce Love, which is their only real weapon offense.  The Horned Frogs only give up 100 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season.  Take TCU. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Houston Rockets -1.5 

The Key: The Rockets come in hungry for a victory following their first 3-game losing streak of the season. The Celtics are vulnerable right now as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 12th game in 19 days.  The Rockets will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The Celtics are banged up right now as well with Semi Ojeleye, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Morris all questionable.  The Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.  The Celtics are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a win.  Take Houston. 

6* Thursday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Drake +2 

The Key: The Drake Bulldogs are 4-0 at home this season and winning by 25.5 PPG on average.  They have played a tough schedule this year with 9 games on the road and just 4 at home.  I think they get the job done in their conference home opener tonight against Bradley.  The Braves have been blown out in 2 of their 4 true road games this year with a 23-point loss to Ole Miss and a 23-point loss to San Diego State.  Their only 2 road wins came against terrible competition in Chicago State and SE Missouri State.  Bradley is 22-40 ATS in its last 62 December road games.  Drake is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games following a win of more than 20 points.  The Braves are 0-6 ATS in road games versus good passing teams who average 16 or more assists per game over the last 3 seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS versus teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last 3 years.  Take Drake.   

7* Missouri/Texas NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas +3 

The Key: Missouri feasted on a weak schedule down the stretch to get to a bowl game.  After a 1-5 start, they reeled off 6 straight victories against Idaho, UConn, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Arkansas.  None of those 6 teams made a bowl games.  Texas went through the Big 12 gauntlet and played both USC and Maryland out of conference.  They went 6-6, but they were competitive in every game and 4 of their 6 losses came by 5 points or less.  Tom Herman is 15-1 ATS in his coaching career as an underdog.  The wrong team is favored in this game.  Take Texas. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets +5.5 

The Key: Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series between Denver and Minnesota.  The road team is 10-2 straight up in the last 12 meetings.  The road team is also 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The home team hasn’t won by more than 4 points in any of the last 14 meetings.  That’s a 14-0 angle pertaining to this 5.5-point spread.  Take Denver. 

6* Wednesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Syracuse -13 

The Key: I like that Syracuse lost to a very good St. Bonaventure team in its final game before Christmas.  That means the 10-2 Orange will come back from their break determined and focused against a MAC foe in Eastern Michigan tonight.  Eastern Michigan hasn’t played anyone this season, and the only real decent opponent they faced they lost 67-87 to at Indiana.  Syracuse is better than Indiana and should have no problem covering this 13-point spread.  The Orange are 8-1 ATS in home games off a loss over the last two seasons.  The Orange are 7-0 ATS in tier last 7 home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread.  Take Syracuse. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on San Antonio Spurs -11 

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs are now fully healthy for the first time this season.  They have managed to go 23-11 despite not having Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker for the majority of the year.  But now everyone is healthy, and they are going to be a dangerous team moving forward.  They should make easy work of the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  The Spurs own the Nets, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings while winning by 27, 27, 29 and 26 points.  Enough said.  Take San Antonio. 

7* NIU/Duke NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois +7 

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies have been one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country for years.  They kind of get overlooked this season because they ‘only’ went 8-4, but this is still a very good team that nearly won the MAC.  All four losses came by 10 points or less, including three by 7 points or fewer to Boston College (20-23), San Diego State (28-34), Central Michigan (24-31) and Toledo (17-27) with three of those losses coming on the road.  They also beat Nebraska on the road.  So they were competitive in every game, and they will be competitive against Duke here.  The Blue Devils only beat two bowl teams this season.  What gives NIU a shot to pull the upset tonight is the fact that its defense ranks 20th in the country, giving up just 20.8 PPG, 328 YPG and 4.6 YPP on the season.  The offense has been fine in scoring 30.2 PPG.  Duke’s offense has been suspect at 25.7 PPG.  This just has the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle, and that certainly favors the underdog getting 7 points.  The Huskies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take Northern Illinois. 

6* T’Wolves/Lakers NBA *BAILOUT* on Minnesota -5 

The Key: The Timberwolves are fresh heading into this Christmas Day showdown with the Lakers.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days and enter on a 3-game winning streak.  The Lakers are much more fatigued as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  They won’t have much left in the tank after going through a gauntlet of Cleveland, Golden State, Houston, Golden State and Portland in their last 5 games.  It’s no surprise they are just 1-5 in their last 6 games overall.  And the Lakers have many injury problems right now with both Lonzo Ball and Brook Lopez out, and Brandon Ingram questionable.  The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Steelers/Texans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +9 

The Key: I question the motivation of the Pittsburgh Steelers today.  They blew their game against the Patriots and lost a game that decided the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  And with the Jaguars losing yesterday, the Steelers can afford a loss today and still get a first-round bye by winning next week against the lowly Browns at home.  They will suffer a hangover from that loss to the Patriots last week.  Plus they don’t have two of their best players in Antonio Brown and Ryan Shazier.  And the Steelers have several close wins against bad teams of late as 6 of their last 7 games have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  Bets on teams that were beaten by the spread by 49 or more total points in their last 7 games against an opponent that went over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games are 39-13 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Texans couldn’t be more undervalued than they are right now off 3 straight double-digit losses.  Take Houston. 

7* NFL Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans +7 

The Key: Two weeks ago you could have bet the Los Angeles Rams at a pick ‘em against the Tennessee Titans.  This line has moved 7 points since then.  That’s based solely on public perception.  The Rams are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 42-7 beat down at Seattle.  After basically clinching the division with that victory, I expect them to suffer a letdown this week against the Titans.  The Titans have since lost back-to-back games and that’s why the perception on them is down.  But they have everything to play for here at 8-6 as they are fighting for a playoff spot in the crowded AFC.  And they still have a chance to win the division if they can win out.  That’s why I expect the best effort of the season from the Titans in this game.  And we’re getting 7 points with them at home.  This is one of the best values I’ve ever seen in the NFL.  Take Tennessee.

6* Sunday NFL *BLOWOUT* on Detroit Lions -3 

The Key: The Detroit Lions have to be more than 3-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals today based on the motivation of these two teams.  The Lions have managed to stay alive in the playoff race by going 5-2 in their last 7 games overall.  Now they play a Bengals team that has clearly quit, losing their last 2 games to the Bears and Vikings by a combined score of 14-67.  Marvin Lewis has announced he is done after the season, so the players have nothing left to fight for.  And the Bengals are a mash unit due to all of their injuries both on the offensive line and all over the defense.  Cincinnati is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after railing its previous game by 21 or more at the half.  Detroit is 10-2 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Detroit. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Denver Broncos +3 

The Key: Brock Osweiler had a near-perfect QBR in his last game against the Colts.  He is trying to show teams that he can still be a starting quarterback in this league.  The Broncos have throttled the Colts and Broncos by a combined 48-13 score over the past 2 weeks.  Now they have extra prep time to get ready for the Washington Redskins after playing last Thursday.  They have the league’s top-ranked defense this season and will make life miserable on Kirk Cousins and the banged-up Redskins.  Washington was fortunate to win last week against the Cardinals limiting them to 5 field goals instead of touchdowns.  I think Osweiler and company punch it in a few more times this week, and the defense shuts down this anemic Washington offense.  The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win.  Take Denver. 

6* Saturday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Thunder/Jazz UNDER 198 

The Key: The Thunder just beat the Jazz 107-79 on Wednesday for 186 combined points.  Now they get to play just a few days later and it will be another low-scoring affair, which has been the case in this series over the past couple seasons.  The UNDER is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Utah.  They have combined for 200 or fewer points in all 7 meetings, including 198 or fewer in 6 of them.  Enough said.  Take the UNDER. 

6* App State/Toledo NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Toledo -6 

The Key: I really like this spot for the Toledo Rockets.  They lost to Appalachian State in their bowl game last season, and now they get a shot at revenge this season.  I think they will be the more hungry team because of it.  And I think Appalachian State isn’t as good as last year, while Toledo is a better football team than it was a year ago.  The Rockets won the MAC this season.  Their only 2 losses both came on the road at Miami and at Ohio.  That Ohio game wasn’t that important because they had basically clinched the MAC West with a win over Northern Illinois the week before, so it was a letdown spot.  They went on to win their final 3 games by 29, 27 and 17 points.  And that 17-point win came after they let the foot off the gas following a 35-0 lead over Akron in which they committed 5 turnovers, or it would have been an even bigger blowout.  Appalachian State lost to the likes of UMass and UL Monroe this season.  The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after leading their previous game by 24 or more points at the half.  The Rockets are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after leading their previous game by 17 or more at the half.  Take Toledo. 

7* Colts/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +14 

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens don’t have a potent enough offense to be laying 2 touchdowns to the Indianapolis Colts today.  In fact, they have one of the worst offenses in the entire NFL.  They have been living off turnovers this season, which is hard to sustain.  They are plus-17 in turnover differential.  But the Colts don’t turn the ball over as Jacoby Brissett has thrown just 7 interceptions on the season.  The Colts have committed 1 or fewer turnovers in 11 of their 14 games this year.  They aren’t going to give the Ravens the gifts they have been used to getting this year.  That’s going to make it hard for them to cover this massive spread.  The Colts have shown up every week and given a great effort for Chuck Pagano.  He is doing a good job, and it’s unfortunate that he may lose that job at the end of the season.  But it won’t be for a lack of fighting, and I expect his players to show up for him this week once again.  This is also a good spot for the Colts as they are rested after playing last Thursday against the Broncos, getting extra time to prepare, while the Ravens are on a short week after beating the Browns on Sunday.  Bets against home favorites a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a losing team are 70-38 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Pagano is 23-13 ATS off a loss as the coach of Indianapolis.  The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Ravens are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win by more than 14 points.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Indianapolis. 

6* Lakers/Warriors ESPN *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 216 

The Key: This will be the 3rd meeting already between the Lakers and Warriors.  They are very familiar with one another, which should lead to an UNDER.  They just played on Monday as well.  That game was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation for 204 combined points.  I think the fact that it went to OT and went over the total has the total in this rematch set too high.  The UNDER is 16-6 in Warriors last 22 games vs. a team with a wining percentage below 40%.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* Friday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Bradley +7.5 

The Key: The Bradley Braves should not be this big of underdogs to the Ole Miss Rebels tonight.  This is a Bradley team that returned all 5 starters from last year and is absolutely loaded.  The Braves are off to a 10-2 start this season with one of their losses coming by a single point to Vermont.  Ole Miss has already lost 5 games this season and is just 2-8 ATS in all lined games, clearly being overvalued in the market place.  They have home losses to Illinois State, South Dakota State and Virginia Tech already, plus neutral court losses to Utah by 9 and at Middle Tennessee by 19.  Their 6 wins have come against Lafayette, Eastern Kentucky, Georgia State, Rice, Sam Houston State and Texas A&M CC.  They haven’t beaten anyone of any significance, and they struggled to put away 3 of those teams.  The Rebels are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Braves are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Take Bradley. 

7* Central Michigan/Wyoming NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan +3 

The Key: The Wyoming Cowboys are overrated because of Josh Allen’s NFL prospects.  But this offense has been one of the worst in the country.  The Cowboys only average 22.3 points and 287 yards per game.  That’s not very good for a QB like Allen who was expected to be a top draft choice coming into the season.  Conversely, the CMU Chippewas are rolling offensively.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games behind an offense that has scored at least 31 points in all 5 games while averaging 41.2 PPG.  Miami transfer Shane Morris is lighting it up at the quarterback position, and the rushing offense has really gotten going too.  I like their momentum coming into this game and simply think they are the better team and shouldn’t be catching points.  Bets against favorites of 3 to 10 points off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record playing another winning team are 39-13 ATS since 1992.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Temple/FIU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Temple -6.5 

The Key: This is one of the bigger strength of schedule differences of any bowl game.  Temple play the much tougher slate of games.  And after struggling to start, they made the switch at quarterback and have finished strong.  They have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming to unbeaten UCF to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.  This Temple senior class has never won a bowl game and will be motivated to do so after getting upset by both Toledo and Wake Forest the past two seasons.  FIU went 8-4 this season, but only 2 of the wins came against bowl teams in Marshall and WKU.  Their 4 losses all came by 7 points or more, including 3 by 20-plus points against the better opponents they faced.  They lost by 44 to UCF and by 28 to FAU.  I think Temple is only a notch below those 2 teams.  Temple is 7-0 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards over the last 2 seasons.  The Owls are 15-3 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.  Temple is 11-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 58% completions or worse over the last 2 seasons.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last 3 years.  The Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. C-USA teams.  The Golden Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.  FIU is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 non-conference games.  Take Temple. 

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Chicago Bulls +10.5 

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  They have won 7 in a row since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut.  They are playing great, confident basketball right now and are more than capable of competing with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Bulls have actually gone 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Cleveland, winning 6 of those 9 games outright.  Take Chicago. 

6* Kansas State/Washington State ESPN 2 *BAILOUT* on Washington State +9 

The Key: This will essentially be a home game for the Washington State Cougars playing in Spokane, WA. The Kansas State Wildcats will clearly be the road team despite the fact that this is listed as a neutral site game.  And I’ve seen enough from Wazzu to know that they can stay within 9 points of the Wildcats tonight.  They pulled off 3 upset victories on neutral courts already this season, beating St. Joe’s 75-71 as 8.5-point dogs, St. Mary’s 84-79 as 17.5-point dogs, and San Diego State 93-86 as 9.5-point dogs.  The Cougars are 7-0 ATS in neutral court games when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last 3 years.  The Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take Washington State. 

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Phoenix Suns +5.5 

The Key: The Phoenix Suns are so deep that they have been able to overcome the losses of Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker.  They have gone 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall as they have been consistently underrated.  In their last two games, they pulled off two huge upsets on the road at Minnesota as 12-point dogs and at Dallas as 7.5-point dogs.  I think they upset the Clippers tonight.  But this shouldn’t really be an upset given how many injuries the Clippers have right now.  They are without Blake Griffin, Patrick Beverly, Danilo Gallinari and Wesley Johnson.  They have lost 3 straight coming in and are just 11-18 on the season.  Phoenix is 9-1 ATS revenging a loss by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Clippers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference.  Take Phoenix. 

6* LA Tech/SMU NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 72 

The Key: The LA Tech Bulldogs are going to try to slow down the pace in this game and play to their strengths, which is their defense and running game.  They average just 28.7 points per game and cannot keep up with SMU in a shootout.  They rush for 175 yards per game and should have success moving the sticks and slowing down the pace against an SMU defense that allows 213 rushing yards per game.  The Bulldogs only give up 26.7 points per game on the season.  This is a much different team under Skip Holtz than in year’s past.  They just beat UTSA 20-6 at home in their season finale.  It won’t be that low-scoring of a game, but it won’t exceed 72 points either.  SMU is 16-5 UNDER in its last 21 games when playing on 2 or more weeks of rest.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bulldogs last 6 games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 4-0 in SMU’s last 4 bowl games.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Mustangs last 20 games following a win.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Tuesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Georgia -5 

The Key: Mark Fox has one of his best teams yet this season with 4 starters back from last year and a ton of talent.  The Bulldogs are off to a 7-2 start this season with wins over St. Mary’s and Marquette away from home along the way.  They will be playing just their 5th home game of the season tonight.   They face a Georgia Tech team that hast lost 3 of its last 4, including losses to Grambling and Wofford.  The Bulldogs have owned the Yellow Jackets the past 2 seasons, winning 75-61 at home in 2015 and 60-43 on the road in 2016.  Georgia is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. ACC opponents.  Georgia Tech will be without second-leading scorer Tadric Jackson (15.8 PPG), who is doubtful with an ankle injury.  Take Georgia. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +9.5 

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are a tired team right now.  They will be playing for a second consecutive day after a draining 115-117 loss at Chicago Monday.  They can’t be 9.5-point favorites in this situation, especially considering the Kings are rested and will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.  The underdog is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings, including an upset win by the Kings over the 76ers in Sacramento in their first meeting earlier this season.  Take Sacramento. 

7* Akron/FAU NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 66 

The Key: Florida Atlantic gets too much credit for its offense and not enough for its defense.  The Owls have held each of their last six opponents to 28 points or fewer, including 17 and 12 points allowed in their last two contests.  Akron is one of the worst offensive teams that they will have faced this season.  The Zips only average 23.6 points and 330 yards this season.  They do play decent defense and should do enough to slow down the Owls.  The Zips give up 26.3 points per game.  Akron is 10-3 UNDER in all games this season.  The Zips are 8-1 UNDER off a loss by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Zips last 10 road games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Owls last 6 December games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Falcons/Bucs NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -6.5 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons have done whatever they wanted to offensively in their last two meetings with the Bucs.  They won 43-28 in Tampa last year with 461 total yards, and they won 34-20 at home earlier this season behind 516 total yards.  The Bucs rank last in the NFL in total defense and won’t offer much resistance tonight either.  The Bucs are a mess at 4-9 on the season and haven’t had a bye all year.  They are tired, they are beat up, and they stand no chance of keeping this game close against Atlanta.  They are going to be without 2 of their best players on defense in DT Gerald McCoy and LB Lavonte David.  Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game this season.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.  The Bucs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC opponents, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South opponents.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Monday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Blazers/Timberwolves OVER 206 

The Key: The Timberwolves and their opponents are combining for an average of 214 points per game this season.  We have a total of just 206 here tonight and I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the OVER.  Portland is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 road games after a combined score of 185 or less.  Minnesota is 12-2 OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.  The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Minnesota.  Take the OVER.