Sports Picks & Predictions

7* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Toledo -6

The Key: The Toledo Rockets won 27 games last year and had four starters returning from that squad.  They have not played up to expectations as they are just 13-8 on the season.  However, seven of their eight losses have come by 10 points or less.  This team has lost a lot of close games and is better than their record would indicate.  Eastern Michigan is 12-1 at home, but just 2-6 on the road.  The home team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between Toledo and EMU.  Toledo is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with EMU, winning all five games by 8 points or more.  The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take Toledo.

7* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers -8

The Key: The Blazers will be highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost eight of their last 10 games overall.  Seven of those losses came against playoff teams, and seven came by 7 points or less.  The Jazz come in riding high off a huge upset win over the Golden State Warriors, setting them up for a letdown spot tonight.  The Jazz are just 8-16 on the road this season.  The Blazers have won their last four meetings with the Jazz by an average of 15.8 points per game.  Plays against underdogs off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five years.  Take the Blazers.

6* Indiana/Wisconsin Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Indiana +16

The Key: The Hoosiers are one of the most improved teams in the country at 16-6 this season.  They can score with anyone as they average 80.3 points per game and shoot 47.8% from the field.  I look for them to keep up with the Badgers, who are also one of the most efficient teams in the Big Ten.  This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years.  Each of the last eight meetings between Wisconsin and Indiana have been decided by 12 points or fewer.  Wisconsin is just 1-8 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two seasons.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Indiana.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on St. John's +6

The Key: This is a great situation to back the St. John's Red Storm.  They will be motivated for revenge on the Butler Bulldogs after losing the first meeting at home by a final of 69-73.  That was one of four losses in Big East play that the Red Storm have suffered by single-digits, including three by 4 points or less.  Butler is a team that has won a ton of close games.  The Bulldogs are 6-3 in the Big East, but four of those six ins came by 4 points or less.  Six of Butler's last eight games have been decided by 4 points or fewer as well.  The Red Storm are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a win.  Take St. John's.

7* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Iowa State +7

The Key: Iowa State has lost four games this season, but all four came by single digits, including three by 5 points or fewer.  That's how close this team is to being 20-0 this season.  The Jayhawks are more beatable this year than they have been in a while.  Iowa State wants to win the Big 12 this season, and it has to go through Kansas to do so.  It shot 50.8% from the field in its 86-81 home victory over the Jayhawks in the first meeting this season.  While Kansas will be out for revenge, I don't believe that trumps Iowa State's motivation of wanting to put an end to a 9-game losing streak at Allen Fieldhouse.  This is one of the best Cyclone teams in program history, and one fully capable of going into Kansas and pulling off the upset.  The Cyclones are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  Take Iowa State.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hornets/Wizards UNDER 188.5

The Key: The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  They have combined to average 182.8 points per game in those four meetings at the end of regulation.  The Hornets have gone 6-1 to the under in their last seven games overall.  They have combined to average 176.7 points per game with their last seven opponents as well.  The under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings in Washington.  The under is also 11-1 in Hornets last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the under.

7* Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Patriots +2 (I've been informed that the line I locked in at "+2" is not correlating to the number the line feed is showing "-1" - it must be some minor programming glitch. I want you to know I still like the Pats at -1 and even at -3 for that matter.)

The Key: Seattle was the No. 1 defensive team in the NFL statistically during the regular season, but it was far from dominant at home against the Packers in the NFC Championship, and it's up against an entirely different animal here. Led by Tom Brady, New England is hitting on all cylinders offensively. After gashing Baltimore for 422 yards and 35 points, it put up 397 yards and 45 points against the Colts. The numbers are worth noting because the Patriots are an eye-opening 72-33-2 ATS in their last 107 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. New England has risen to the occasion time and time again with Bill Belichick on the sideline and Brady under center, even against the stiffest defenses. The Pats are 30-15 ATS versus teams that give up 17.0 ppg or less under Belichick. They are 16-5 ATS in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 285.0 ypg or less under Belichick. They are 18-9 ATS in the second half of the season versus teams with a win percentage above 75% under Belichick. Besides the Brady/Belichick factor, the New England run defense is a big reason for this play. The Pats ranked No. 9 in the NFL against the run this season and have held foes to 85.1 rushing yards per game over their last 10 games. Seattle's run game needs to be effective for it to be at its best offensively, and I don't see it happening against New England's stingy run defense. When the rushing yards don't come easy, Russell Wilson will have to carry the load. He didn't perform well at all in the NFC Championship when he had the help of a running game, and I don't see him getting nearly as much help here. Brady and Belichick have lost their last two Super Bowl appearances, and that is a huge motivating factor. It's tough to repeat. It hasn't happened in a decade when the Patriots did it, and I believe they'll be the team to deny Seattle from getting it done. Take New England.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Celtics Over 187

The Key: Boston is off a six-point loss to Houston, and that is very significant because it is 7-0 "over" this season in home games following a loss of six points or less. We have seen an average of 212.1 total points scored in this spot. In addition, when the line is 180.0 to 189.5, playing the "over" on Sunday road teams that average 6.0 made three-point shots per game or more has produced a 46-18 mark the last five seasons. These teams have combined with their opponent for an average of 192.0 total points in this situation. Take the over.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on NC-Greensboro +3.5

The Key: This is a bad scheduling spot for Western Carolina, which will be playing its second road game in three days. To make matters worse, it is off an upset win at VMI and is 6-21 ATS off an upset win on the road since 1997. NC-Greensboro has a quick turnaround too but is in a much better situation because it hasn't had to travel. It has lost its last three, and if that's not enough motivation, it has lost six straight to the Catamounts. The Spartans are 24-8 ATS off three straight losses to conference foes since 1997. While Western Carolina has had the edge in the series lately, it's been far from dominant at NC-Greensboro where it hasn't won by more than five points in the last five meetings. I'll take the points given the tough scheduling spot for WC and NC-Gs level of motivation.

6* NCAAB Trap Game on South Carolina -3

The Key: Odds makers are begging for action on a Georgia team that is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five by giving it points. It is up against an opponent that is 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in league play. The Bulldogs are also 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five versus South Carolina. I'm not taking the bait. The fact the books have made the decision to favor the Gamecocks here is very significant. Consider that favorites that have failed to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games are 76-37 ATS since 1997 when matched up against an opponent that has covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. Teams fitting this situation have won by an average of 10.8 points. It is also worth noting that this system tightens up to 20-5 ATS over the last three seasons. Not only will South Carolina be motivated but it catches Georgia at a good time as it is expected to be without leading scorer Marcus Thornton. Lay the points.

7* ACC Game of the Year on Pittsburgh +5.5

The Key: Expect a letdown from Notre Dame as it hits the road following a big win over Duke. The Fighting Irish are 0-8 ATS the last three seasons following a stretch where they've covered the spread in three of their last four games. You want to fade teams like Notre Dame that have won 18 or more of their last 20 games if they are playing their third game in a week. Doing so has produced a 71-38 ATS mark the last five seasons. Pitt was upset by three points at VA Tech last time out, but it is 11-2 ATS off a close road loss of three points or less under coach Dixon and has bounced back to win by an average of 10.1 points in this spot. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics +7.5

The Key: Off Wednesday's big win over Dallas, Houston will have a tough time getting up for the lowly Celtics. Fading Friday night favorites off a home win over a division rival has resulted in a 53-21 (72%) ATS mark the last five seasons. After going 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS versus the likes of the Clippers, Blazers, Nuggets, Warriors and Jazz, Boston was crushed by the miserable T-wolves. You can bet that loss isn't setting well. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points and 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus Western Conference foes. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the points.

7* Pac-12 *POWERHOUSE* on UCLA +6

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats to Oregon State and Oregon and further fueled by a brutal 71-39 loss at Utah earlier this month, UCLA will give the Utes all they want and more. UCLA will be happy to step back on its home floor, where it is 9-1 this season, after three straight on the road. The Bruins are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games following three or more consecutive road games. It is also worth noting that the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Teams headed up by coach Alford are 45-25 ATS since 1997 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss. In addition, you want to back underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a road loss of 10 points or more if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 102-52 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Under the Radar Blowout on UTEP -11

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back upset losses on the road, UTEP will be looking to put the hurt on UAB tonight. You want to back home teams with four starters returning that are off two or more consecutive upset losses on the road as doing so has produced a 32-9 ATS mark since 1997. Teams in this situation have won by an average of 13.5 points. In addition, UTEP is 8-0 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a conference opponent under coach Tim Floyd and has won these games by an average of 16.1 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers -8

The Key: Expect a letdown from the Knicks following last night's big upset win over the Thunder. They are just 3-20 on the road and 1-10 in the second game of a back-to-back. They are 0-7 in their last seven in Indiana and have lost these by an average of 14.9 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Mavericks +4

The Key: Dallas fits into a strong situation. You want to play underdogs that are seeking revenge for an upset loss to an opponent when their opponent checks in off two or more consecutive road wins. Doing so has produced a 34-13 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, the Mavericks are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games following a loss, 64-30 ATS in their last 94 road games and 43-19 ATS in their last 62 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

7* SEC Game of the Week on South Carolina +5.5

The Key: LSU is being overvalued following back-to-back upset wins on the road against Florida and Vanderbilt. Teams headed up by Johnny Jones are just 4-14 ATS in home games following two straight wins over conference foes. The Gamecocks hit the road following two straight at home but are 6-0 ATS the last two seasons after playing two consecutive home games. This series has been dominated by the road team, which is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. In fact, the road team has won each of the last five straight up. The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma State -4

The Key: Oklahoma State has lost three of four but all three losses were on the road against quality opponents. Now it's home, where it is 9-1 on the season, and I expect it to bounce back strong. The Cowboys have been an awesome investment at home where they are on a 60-29-4 ATS run. They are 8-0 ATS all-time in Tuesday night home games under coach Ford and have won these by an average score of 78.4 to 56.2. Baylor swept the season series last year, which adds to Oklahoma State's level of motivation. Wins haven't come easy for the Bears on the road in this series as they are just 3-14 in their last 17 visits. Baylor is off a big revenge win over Oklahoma, and the fact it won impressively by 11 points is significant. Consider that the Bears are 9-19 ATS in road games following a double-digit win over a conference foe under coach Drew. They have lost by an average of 6.8 points in this spot. The home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Lay the points.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio State -8.5

The Key: This will be a tough encore for Indiana on the road following a big win over Maryland. The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in road games the last two seasons after covering the number four or five times in a six-game span. Ohio State lost the first meeting at Indiana Jan. 10 so it will be highly motivated. Sneaking past Northwestern Thursday was significant because the Buckeyes are 9-1 ATS the last three seasons when checking in off a road win against a conference foe. They have won by an average of 10.1 points in these contests. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Bulls Over 186

The Key: The Heat have finished under the total in 10 straight games, and we are getting a good number here as a result. Miami is 22-11 "over" the last two seasons when the total is 180-189.5. The Bulls are 21-8 "over" in their last 29 home games, including 10-1 this season when they check in with two wins in a three-game span. When the total is 180-189.5 for a Sunday game, playing the "over" on road teams that average six three-point makes per game or more has produced a 46-17 mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that the Bulls are 15-6 "over" this season in home games versus teams that average six made three-pointers per game or more. We have seen an average of 206.4 total points scored in these 21 contests.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Hornets Under 185.5

The Key: Each of the season's first three meetings between these teams have gone over the number with at least 189 scored in each.  The Knicks combined with Orlando for 219 points last night, and the Hornets combined with the Cavs for 219 as well. And we're getting a line of just 185.5? Clearly, the books want the money on the over, but we won't oblige them. Prior to last night, the Hornets had held 10 straight foes to 45% shooting or worse with 8 of them making just 39.8% of their shots or fewer. Now that's some serious defense, and I expect a strong defensive effort tonight against a New York team that has really struggled offensively this season. The Knicks were kicked at home by the Hornets Jan. 10 so they'll be looking for revenge here. They know the best way to get it is too shore things up defensively, which is what they had done before last night. They got the win, but allowing the Magic to shoot over 50% serves as a reminder of their last game against Charlotte when they allowed the Hornets to shoot 50% and lost by 28. The Hornets aren't a good offensive team and are in poor offensive form, shooting just 37.6% from the field over their last five games. I expect the struggles to continue as the Knicks turn up the heat. Charlotte is 19-8 under in home games the last 3 seasons after playing a game with a combined score of 205 points or more.

6* Big Ten Blowout on Minnesota -5

The Key: Minnesota has lost six of its first seven in Big Ten play but four of the losses have come on the road. It's been extremely competitive in each of its three conference home games and is 10-2 at home on the season. I the like the Golden Gophers to take care of business here against an Illinois squad that is just 1-4 in true road games. The Fighting Illini are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games going back to last season and 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a cover. They're also 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games versus teams with a winning home record. Lay the points.

7* Big East Game of the Week on Xavier -11.5

The Key: Xavier is 8-1 ATS in January home games the last three seasons, and I expect its home dominance to continue in this extremely motivated spot. The Musketeers lost at DePaul earlier this month but are 12-3 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss. In addition, you want to back favorites that have failed to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games when they are up against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. Doing so has produced a 4-0 ATS mark this season, a 20-3 ATS mark the last three seasons and a 76-35 ATS mark since 1997. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on East Carolina +8.5

The Key: Tulsa is off a big win over Memphis and has had just two days to prepare for this contest. It has a bigger game at Tulane on deck Tuesday so it will have a tough time focusing on the task at hand, especially on the road where it is 1-5 ATS in its last six games versus teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. East Carolina has had a week to prepare and has been a nice play at home where it is 4-1 ATS in last five. The offense has struggled
in its last two games so the extra prep time should serve the Pirates well. Besides, they are 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in home games after being held to 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. They have exploded to win by an average score of 74.4 to 60.9 in this situation.

7* NBA Total of the Year on Raptors/76ers Over 194

The Key: The Raptors have finished under the total in each of their last five games with just 178 total points scored in their last game at Memphis. The 76ers have come in under the number in nine of their last 10 with just 189 total points scored in their last game against the Knicks. Plus, we saw only 184 total points scored when these two teams met in Toronto last week. Given these recent outcomes, odds makers are clearly begging for action on the under. We won't give in. The last meeting between these teams was an aberration. Prior to it, these two had combined for at least 199 points in six straight meetings. When the total is 190.0-199.5, you want to play the over on teams like Toronto that have gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last five games when they are matched up against an opponent that has gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games. Doing so has produced a 39-17 (70%) mark the last five seasons. The average line for these games is 194.0, but we have seen an average of 198.7 total points scored. Take the over.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Niagara +11

The Key: This is a tough scheduling spot for Monmouth. The Hawks just played at Penn Wednesday, and they travel to Manhattan Sunday. They were swept by Manhattan last season so the tendency will be to peek ahead to that game. They defeated Niagara by 16 earlier this month so I don't think they'll be giving the Purple Eagles their full attention. Monmouth is 0-6 ATS 15 games or more into the schedule versus weak offensive teams that average 64.0 ppg or less under coach Rice. It is also 0-7 ATS under Rice in home games when playing a third game in a week's span. In addition, you want to back road teams with a win percentage of 20% or worse that are seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent as doing so has produced a 113-64 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA National TV *CA$H COW* on Bulls +6

The Key: The Spurs are being overvalued on the road against a Chicago team that I believe will be playing with a sense of desperation tonight. The Bulls have lost six of eight, a stretch that caused Derrick Rose to call out the team. I expect them to respond knowing that anything less than an all-out effort won't be good enough tonight. Chicago's biggest issues of late have been on the defensive side of the court, and that's something that can be corrected with better effort. We are now over the halfway point of the season, which bodes well for us tonight as the Bulls are 15-4 ATS in the second half of the season against teams with a win percentage of 60-70% under coach Thibodea. They have won these contests by an average score of 95.8 to 91.5. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Under the Radar Game of the Week on Western Carolina +2

The Key: Mercer has played its last three at home and won all three, pounding Samford by 24 last time out. But now it hits the road. The Bears are 3-8 in road/neutral court games this season and 2-5-2 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 20 points. Western Carolina has lost its last two and will be hungry as a result. It is a better team than its 8-11 record might lead you to believe because it has played just seven home games. It is 5-2 in those games. Mercer has outscored its opponents by an average of 5.1 points, but the Catamounts are 14-4 ATS in home games versus teams that outscore the opposition by 4.0 ppg or more under coach Hunter, and they have won these games by an average score of 72.9 to 69.1. The wrong team is favored here. Take Western Carolina.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Missouri State +13.5

The Key: Any time the Bears are off a loss in conference play, it's a good time to back them. Missouri State is 17-6 ATS the last three seasons following a conference defeat, including 8-1 ATS during this span when they are off two straight losses in conference play. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the points as the Bears bounce back strong and keep this one within the number.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers +11.5

The Key: Atlanta is being overvalued here because it has won 13 straight while covering the spread in the last 12. The fact the Pacers have lost five straight and have failed to cover the spread in their last seven is adding to the value. Consider that road underdogs of 10 points or more that have lost four or five of their last six games and are matched up against a team that has won eight or more of their last 10 games are 79-43 (65%) ATS the last five seasons. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Pacers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Atlanta. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +8.5

The Key: Denver was completely embarrassed at Golden State last night and will come out focused and hungry as a result. The Nuggets have been a strong play at home even against good road teams and are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 home games versus a team with a winning road record. It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games versus teams with a winning home record. San Antonio is off a convincing win over Utah but is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win of more than 10 points. Take the points.

7* SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina -5

The Key: As if a 1-3 start in conference play isn't enough motivation, South Carolina has dropped 14 straight to Tennessee. The skid ends tonight! The Gamecocks have been good at home where they are 7-2. This is significant because the Volunteers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games versus teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Tennessee has been expected to win during the majority of its winning streak in the series. In fact, it has been favored in each of the last nine. So it is worth noting that the Gamecocks are now installed as the favorite, and the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. In addition, in a matchup of teams with win percentages of .600 to .800, you want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have gone under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games. Doing so has produced a 61-26 ATS mark since 1997. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Youngstown State +10

The Key: This is a look-ahead spot for Valpo, which has a big showdown at Wisconsin-Green Bay Friday. With that contest on deck, it will be difficult for the Crusaders to give a Youngstown State team they defeated by 15 points earlier this month their complete focus. Prior to that loss, Youngstown State had won or lost by fewer than 10 points in five straight meetings so there is plenty of value in the Penguins catching double digits. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Florida State +4.5

The Key: This isn't a good situation for Clemson. The Tigers are off an upset win at home over Syracuse, but they are 2-12 ATS since 1997 following an upset win at home over a conference opponent, losing these contests by an average score of 75.9 to 58.8. The Seminoles have lost their last three, but they are 24-10 ATS since 1997 following three straight losses in conference play. Florida State has had Clemson's number in recent years. It is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings with the lone loss coming by just four points. It is also worth noting that the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Raptors/Bucks Over 198.5

The Key: The over is showing value in tonight's Raptors/Bucks battle. The Bucks have finished under the total in 11 straight games, and odds makers have been forced to over adjust the line as a result of all the action coming in on the under for Milwaukee games. Toronto is off a bad upset loss at home to New Orleans, but that is to our benefit. The Raptors are 8-0 "over" the last two seasons in road games following an upset loss at home, and we've seen an average of 218.2 total points scored in these games. The "over" is 5-0 in Toronto's last five versus Central division foes and 4-0 in its last four versus Milwaukee. We have seen 210, 200, 210 and 207 total points scored in those four. Take the over.

6* AFC Championship *CA$H COW* on Colts +7

The Key: The Colts are a different team on the defensive side of the football than they were when they were blown out by New England in November. Since getting embarrassed at Dallas, they've flipped the switch and have given up just 10, 10 and 13 points. Holding the Broncos to 13 points in Denver is no easy feat, and it tells me they're ready to give the Patriots a game. Indy is 6-0 ATS under Chuck Pagano after holding opponents to 17 points or fewer in each of its last two games and has won by an average score of 31.0 to 22.7 in this situation. The Pats have a huge public following and are typically overvalued as a result. That's especially been the case in the playoffs. New England is just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 postseason contests and is only 2-9 ATS as a #1 seed in the playoffs under Bill Belichick. It has won these games on average but only by an average of 4.1 points. It is also worth noting that New England is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 AFC championship games. Take the points.

6* NBA Total of the Week on Magic/Thunder Under 211.0

The Key: The under is showing some nice value in Sunday's Thunder vs. Magic matchup. You want to play the "under" on January road teams that went over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game if the posted total is 210.0 or greater. Doing so has produced an impressive 31-9 (78%) mark since 1996. The Thunder combined with Golden State for 242 points last game, but they won't get the same kind of help from an Orlando team that averages only 94.9 ppg. Oklahoma City's over/under results have directly correlated with its level of competition. It is 13-3 "under" when playing against teams with a losing record this season, and we have seen just 190.1 total points scored on average in these games. Take the under.

7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Packers +7.5

The Key: We are getting a great number here as books are expecting plenty of public money on the Seahawks with all the media attention Aaron Rodgers' calf injury is getting. There are several other factors contributing to this number like Seattle's 36-16 win over the Packers in the season opener and its 7-0 SU and ATS run, which included a double-digit win at home over Carolina last week. Green Bay's 4-4 road record has also played a part. But with a Super Bowl trip on the line, I'm not hesitating to get grab the points with Green Bay.

While Rodgers may not be 100%, he was 24 of 35 for 316 yards and 3 TDs with no picks against the Cowboys. He has shown the ability to put the team on his back and win football games, even while less than 100%, and I trust him more than Russell Wilson in this big spot.

Wilson is a clutch player, but he is mostly a game manager who depends on Seattle's strong running game to take the pressure off him. He got a huge lift from the running game in the first meeting, but the Packers have transformed their defense since then and have given up an average of only 92.9 rushing yards per game over their last nine games and have gone 8-1 during this stretch.

Green Bay couldn't run the football worth a lick early in the season when they first faced Seattle, but it has averaged 134.2 rushing yards over its last 13 games. The Seahawks will have to respect the run this time around, and that will open up the field for Rodgers.

Seattle is a terrific defensive team, but the Packers are on a 14-6 ATS run versus teams that give up just 12.9 to 18.9 ppg with Rodgers under center. The Packers are also on a 38-14 ATS run versus teams with passing defenses that allow 4.9-6.9 passing yards per attempt with Rodgers at the controls.

We also can't ignore what Rodgers has done away from home in his career in the playoffs. He's 4-2 in road/neutral field games in the playoffs with one of the losses coming in OT. He's won six of his last nine postseason games overall and has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in eight of 10 career postseason games.

Another factor that can't be ignored is Seattle's propensity for penalties. The Seahawks give up an average of 63.0 ypg on penalties, which is worth noting because the Packers are 22-6 ATS under McCarthy versus teams that give up an average of 60.0 penalty yards per game or more. Take the points.

7* Big West Bailout on UC Riverside -110

The Key: This is a tough spot for Hawaii, which is playing its first true road game of the season. The Warriors are 18 games into the schedule and have yet to set foot on true foreign soil. Riverside is 7-2 at home and will be hungry as it looks to end a five-game skid in the series. The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games versus teams with a winning home record. The Warriors are still expected to be without guard Garrett Nevels, who is the team's second leading scorer. Take Riverside.

6* SEC Annihilator on Missouri -110

The Key: Missouri will be the more motivated team here. It was clobbered 86-37 at Kentucky last time out. And in case that isn't enough motivation, it was kicked 72-45 the last time in faced Tennessee. The Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 20 points. Tennessee is just 3-11 ATS in lined games this season, including 0-6 ATS when playing its second game in a week. Take Mizzou.

7* Southern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on VMI +1.5

The Key: VMI has lost six of seven but was on the road for six of those. Now it's home, and I expect it to take care of business. The Keydets will be the more motivated side as they seek revenge for a loss at East Tennessee State earlier this month. They should also be the fresher side as they've had the last two days off while East Tennessee State is playing its second road game in three days. The Keydets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 while the Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games versus teams with a losing record. The Keydets are also 4-1 ATS in their last five home games following three or more consecutive road games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. Take VMI.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Thunder +2.5

The Key: This is one of the most motivated spots of the season for the Thunder, who have lost three of four. They were hit hard in the first quarter by Houston last night and played catch up the rest of the way. They will come out a lot more focused and energized from the tip tonight as a result. Fatigue shouldn't be an issue as they had five days off prior to last night's game. Adding to the motivation is the fact that Golden State has won each of the season's first three meetings. The Thunder were embarrassed at Golden State earlier this month and will be out for some serious revenge. The Warriors haven't been quite the same team on the road where they have lost three of their last four. They've also had a rough go in Oklahoma City where they are 1-10 in their last 11. The Thunder are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the Thunder.

6* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Nets +10

The Key: Washington is being overvalued following back-to-back impressive wins over the Spurs and Bulls. It knew it had to be on top of its game to get those two, but now it takes a step down in competition and the tendency will be to lose focus. The Wizards are a weak 19-31 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season and 5-15 ATS during this span in home games after a stretch of covers in four or five or their last six games. Brooklyn will be highly motivated tonight as it looks to end a seven-game skid. Despite the losing streak, it has been pretty competitive as the losses have come by an average of just 7.4 points. The Nets are a better team than they've shown lately, and I expect a strong effort here. Brooklyn is 11-2 ATS after two straight double-digit losses over the last three seasons. It is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of their last eight games going back to the beginning of last season. The Nets are also 21-5 ATS the last three seasons in road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. Take the points.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Arizona State +5.5

The Key: Utah has been blowing its competition out of the water, but it has been doing so at home. The Utes haven't played a true road game since Dec. 10. Plus, their momentum has been slowed by having not played for a week. ASU is 0-3 in league play but all three losses were on the road. Now it's home, where it is 8-1 on the season, and will be hungry to pick up its first conference win. You want to back home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a cover in a game they lost straight up when they are matched up against an opponent that's off a home win of 20 points or more. Doing so has produced a 38-14 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Washington -6.5

The Key: Washington has lost its last four but catches the perfect opponent to end its skid. Oregon State is riding high off a big upset win over Arizona and is primed for a letdown as a result. The Huskies are 11-3 ATS off three straight losses in conference play under coach Romar. The Beavers are 0-6 ATS the last two seasons in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. They have lost these six by 12.5 points on average. Washington is 11-0 in its last 11 home games versus the Beavers with these wins coming by an average of 14.4 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Thunder +1.5

The Key: The Thunder have the edge tonight against a Houston team that is playing its second game in as many nights, its third in four days and 9th in 14 days. The Thunder haven't played since last Friday and will undoubtedly be the fresher and more prepared side. OKC lost the season's first meeting but didn't have Durant or Westbrook for that one. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to back road teams that are seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent if they are playing for just the third time or less in a 10-day span. Doing so has produced a 39-13 ATS mark since 1996. Take the Thunder.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Southern Miss +5.5

The Key: Middle Tennessee State is off a huge 82-58 win over Florida Atlantic, and that win sets up an extremely favorable situation for going against the Blue Raiders. MTSU is 0-6 ATS the last two seasons in road games following a win of 20 points or more, and it has lost these six by an average of 3.6 points. The Blue Raiders are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in road games off a blowout win of 20 points or more over a conference foe. They've won these on average but only by 3.8 points. MTSU plays at a rather slow tempo, which is significant because So. Miss is 6-0 ATS 15 games or more into the season versus teams that average 53.0 shots per game or less the last two seasons. The Golden Eagles are also 6-0 ATS the last two seasons after a game with a combined score of 115 points or less. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Bulls -5.5

The Key: This is a tough spot for Washington, which is off a big win over the defending champion Spurs last night. It's asking too much of the Wizards to keep this one close against a more rested and hungry Chicago squad. Not only will the Bulls be fueled by an upset loss to lowly Orlando but also by an embarrassing loss in Washington last week. In a matchup of teams with win percentages of 60% to 75%, you want to back a team off an upset loss in a game in which it was favored by 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 34-11 (76%) ATS mark since 1996. You also want to back favorites that are seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent when they check in off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Doing so has produced a 60-30 (67%) ATS mark since 1996. The Bulls are 13-4 ATS the last two seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more and have won by an average of 8.5 points in this situation. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Ohio +4

The Key: Ohio has been money at home in this spread range, going 8-0 ATS since 1997 as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6.0 points. It has won these games outright on average by an average of 3.9 points. The Bobcats were kicked by 15 at Bowling Green last game, but I fully expect them to bounce back strong. Teams headed up by coach Saul Phillips are 7-0 ATS following a loss of 15 points or more and have won these games by an average of 16.9 points. It is also worth noting that the Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a losing record and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a cover. Take Ohio.

6* SEC *CA$H COW* on South Carolina -4

The Key: The Tide have rattled off six consecutive wins, which means now is the perfect time to fade them. Consider that Alabama is a dismal 2-21 ATS following six straight wins or more since 1997. The Gamecocks have dropped their last two but are 6-0 ATS at home the last two seasons after two or more consecutive losses and have won these games by an average score of 76.0 to 67.7. Lay the points.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Wizards -1.5

The Key: This is a great spot to back the Wizards. They will be extremely hungry following an embarrassing loss in Atlanta last game. They'll also be motivated by a recent loss to the Spurs in San Antonio. Home court has been good to the Wizards as they are 16-4 at home on the season. They are also an outstanding 25-11 ATS the last two seasons when seeking revenge for a loss where they gave up 100 points or more. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten Annihilator on Ohio State -9.5

The Key: I'll lay the points with Ohio State at home in what is a highly motivated spot. Not only are the Buckeyes off a loss at Indiana, but they lost both meetings with Michigan last season, including a 10-point loss on their home floor. They'll be out for some serious payback tonight. Michigan has won its last two but is a weak 18-31 ATS in road games off a win over a conference foe under coach Beilein. Ohio State is a rock solid 93-70 ATS as a home favorite or pickem under coach Matta. It is also worth noting, since this line opened at -10.5, that the Buckeyes are even 65-46 ATS when laying 10 or more at home under Matta. Lay the points.

7* National Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Oregon -6

The Key: Oregon is a runaway freight train that I'm not about to step in front of here. The Ducks are 9-0 SU and ATS in their last nine games with these wins coming by an average of 26.3 points. The smallest margin of victory during this span was still 12 points. The Ducks have several impressive trends going under coach Helfrich. They are 10-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more, 7-0 ATS after a win of 35 points or more, 6-0 ATS after two straight wins of 28 points or more and 6-0 ATS in games played away from home following four or more consecutive wins. It is also worth noting that the Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games and 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Ohio State has pulled off back-to-back improbable victories in impressive fashion since losing J.T. Barrett, but they are up against a different animal here. Ohio State actually trailed Alabama 21-6 and another slow start against the Ducks will likely mean its doom. Oregon never takes its foot off the gas pedal, and that will put a lot of pressure on the Ohio State defense as well as an inexperience signal caller (Cardale Jones). Ohio State has been a great story with all that it's been able to overcome at the QB position, but I think it finally runs out of magic against Marcus Mariota and the Ducks.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics +5

The Key: New Orleans has struggled on the road where it is 6-13 on the season, including 0-4 in its last four. It is also 0-6 on the season in road games against the East. The Pelicans are off a big 11-point win over Southwest division co-leader Memphis, but they are on a 3-20 ATS slide in road following a win of 10 points or more over a division opponent. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Monmouth +4.5

The Key: Rider has been a terrible investment at home in this spread range. In fact, it is 15-44 ATS as a home favorite of 6.0 points or less or pickem since 1997, including 7-30 ATS during this span when laying 3.5 to 6.0. It is also worth noting that the Broncs are 0-6 ATS the last two seasons in home games against teams that have a losing record. Monmouth will be hungry after losing all three of last season's meetings. Take the points with the more motivated side.

7* NFL Divisional Playoffs Game of the Year on Broncos -7

The Key: Indianapolis played the Broncos to a seven-point game in Denver clear back in Week 1, but the final score was misleading as the Broncos led 31-10 in the fourth quarter and then called off the dogs. While some may look to play the revenge angle, history says that's not a good move. In fact, you want to fade teams seeking revenge for a loss if they are off two consecutive covers as a favorite. Doing so has produced a 27-8 ATS mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that Indy is just 5-10 ATS as a road underdog with Luck under center. In addition, the Colts are 0-6 ATS all-time with Luck at the controls in road games played in the second half of the season versus good teams with a win percentage of 60% to 75%. These six defeats have come by an average score of 41.7 to 16.8. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Heat +10

The Key: The Heat have had two days to rest up and prepare for this contest after taking it on the chin in Portland, and they will be lacking no motivation as they try to avenge a November 17-point home loss to the Clippers. LA is off a dominant performance against Dallas yesterday, but fatigue should be an issue as the regulars logged considerable playing time. The Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest and 0-5 ATS in their last five games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. You want to fade favorite of 10 points or more that have won three of their last four games if they carry win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a win percentage of 40-49%. Doing so has produced a 78-42 ATS mark since 1996. It is also worth noting that Miami is 10-1 ATS the last two seasons after a stretch where it fails to cover the spread six or seven times in an eight-game span. Take the points.

6* Sunday NFL *CA$H COW* on Packers -5.5

The Key: I like the Packers at home where they dominate the best of competition late in the season. Consider that Green Bay is 10-0 ATS in home games played in the second half of the season since 1992 versus teams with a win percentage greater than 75%. The Packers have won these games by an average score of 28.3 to 15.0. It is also worth noting that Green Bay is 7-0 ATS in home games played in the second half of the season since 1992 versus good offensive teams that average 27.0 ppg or more. It has defeated these opponents by an average score of 33.3 to 20.5. I like the Packers to handle the cold weather better and take care of business.

6* Saturday Night Annihilator on Panthers +11

The Key: The defending Super Bowl champs are getting a little too much respect from odds makers against a team that has given them problems. Carolina has played Seattle to within five points each of the past three seasons, and I expect another close games Saturday. These two played a 13-9 game Oct. 26, which is worth noting because the Panthers are 11-2 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a loss. They have won by an average score of 26.2 to 15.9 in this situation. The Carolina defense has been outstanding down the stretch, holding each of its last five opponents to 17 points or less. I expect this unit to have success against a Seattle offense that has struggled. The Seahawks have managed only 20 points or fewer in five of their last seven games. You want to fade favorites of 10.5 points or more that have outgained their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in two straight games. Doing so has produced a 51-22 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS over the last three seasons. Take the points.

7* Saturday NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +7

The Key: I like the Ravens catching a TD + PAT given their postseason track record and how competitive they've been with the Patriots. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games while the Patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. It is also worth noting that the Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five postseason games on the road while the Patriots are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games at home. Baltimore has won or lost by fewer than seven points in seven of its last eight matchups with New England and hasn't lost by more than six points in its last five visits to New England. The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

6* Big East *CA$H COW* on Butler -2

The Key: Butler will be the more motivated side this afternoon. As if a home loss to Providence isn't enough of a motivator, the Bulldogs were dealt a pair of double-digit losses by Xavier last season. It's payback time! The Musketeers are off a big win an cover over Seton Hall (our Big East Game of the Year), but they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a cover. They haven't been the same team on the road where they are 1-5 ATS in their last six and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 versus teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Take Butler.

7* MVC Game of the Year on Southern Illinois -3.5

The Key: Southern Illinois will be the hungrier and more focused team this afternoon as it is still looking for its first conference victory. It will also be fueled by losses in each of its last two meetings with Indiana State. This is a tough scheduling spot for Indiana State as it is playing its third game in seven days. The Sycamores are 0-6 ATS the last two seasons when playing a third game in a week and have lost these by an average score of 72.0 to 63.2. Southern Illinois is excellent on the defensive end where it has held opponents to just 41.9% from the field. This bodes well for us as Indiana State is 1-10 ATS the last two seasons versus teams that hold opponents to 42% shooting or worse. The Salukis are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three home meetings with Indiana State and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall. Lay the points.

6* Pac-12 *POWERHOUSE* on Washington -10.5

The Key: Washington has lost three straight since starting 11-0 but is in good position to bounce back big here. The Huskies have had six days to gear up for this battle against a team it defeated by 23 points at home last season. Teams headed up by Lorenzo Romar are 23-5 ATS since 1997 in home games when checking in off a road loss in conference play. The Cougars have been a poor investment on the road where they are 6-20-4 ATS in their last 30. Lay the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on Spurs -5

The Key: This is a great spot for the Spurs who have had the last two days off. In fact, they've had two days off after each of their last three games so they should be fresh here. The Suns, on the other hand, are playing their third road game in four days. Not only will San Antonio be fresher, it will be hungrier following a home loss to Detroit in which it blew an 18 point lead. Adding fuel to the fire is a five-point loss at Phoenix in the season's first meeting. The Spurs don't like losing at home and are 18-6 ATS off a home loss the last three seasons and have won by an average of 9.9 points in this situation. They are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games versus teams with a winning road record. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Nebraska -9.5

The Key: Look for Nebraska to respond following back-to-back losses to start conference play. The Cornhuskers are 9-1 ATS off two straight losses in conference action under coach Tim Miles. Nebraska is a terrific defensive team and should be able to hold Rutgers to a low number tonight. The Scarlet Knights are averaging just 56.5 points in games played away from home on the season and come in ice cold. They've shot 30.2% and 30% in their last two games and are on a 1-9 ATS slide after two straight games of making 33% of their shots or less. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Nebraska-Omaha -3

The Key: This is a bad spot for North Dakota State, which hasn't played a true road game since Dec. 7. It's played just five true road games this season and has lost four of them SU and ATS. Going back to last season, the Bison are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 on the road. They are 3-11 ATS as a road dog or pickem over the last three seasons. Nebraska-Omaha is 5-0 at home and will be lacking no motivation after getting kicked in both of last season's meetings with NDSU. The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Also, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Raptors -12

The Key: Charlotte is playing its best basketball of the season, but it runs into a buzz saw tonight. This will be the second game in as many nights for the Hornets, their third in four days and fifth in seven days. They won't have enough left in the tank to content with a Toronto team that has had the last three days off. The Hornets are 23-48 ATS in their last 71 games when playing without a day of rest while the Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games playing on three days of rest or more. The Raptors will also be highly motivated because they have lost their last three with the last two losses being ugly. They are on a 13-3 ATS run at home following two straight losses of 15 points or more. Charlotte is 15-29 ATS the last three seasons as an underdog of 10 points or more. Lay the points.

7* Atlantic 10 Game of the Month on Richmond -5.5

The Key: Motivated by three consecutive defeats, and further fueled by a nine-point loss at George Mason last season, Richmond will take care of business tonight. You want to back favorites that have failed to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games when that are up against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. Doing so has produced a 2-0 ATS mark this season, an 18-3 ATS mark the last three seasons and a 74-35 ATS mark since 1997. George Mason is off a big win over LaSalle but is a dismal 19-40 ATS in its last 59 games following a win. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Illinois +3

The Key: Illinois has lost its last two but both came on the road. Look for the Fighting Illini to bounce back strong at home where they are 7-0 on the season. Teams headed up by John Groce are 19-7 ATS all-time after playing two consecutive road games, including 11-2 ATS if they were an underdog in both games. Maryland is just 5-13 ATS under coach Mark Turgeon in road games following a win against a conference opponent. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bucks/76ers Over 194.5

The Key: Milwaukee has been an unders machine, finishing under the number in each of its last seven, and we are getting a favorable number as a result. It is also to our benefit that Milwaukee is playing the second game of a back-to-back and an eighth game in 13 days as defense is the first thing to suffer for fatigued teams. The Bucks are 21-9 "over" the last two seasons when playing at least eight games in a 14-day span, and we have seen an average of 204.3 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth noting that the 76ers are on a 36-17 run the last three seasons in home games following an under, and we have seen an average of 202.3 total points scored in this situation. Take the over.

7* Big East GAME OF THE YEAR on Xavier -6

The Key: Motivated by an upset loss at DePaul and further fueled by losses in both of last season's meetings with Seton Hall, Xavier will take care of business in a big way tonight. The Musketeers have been outstanding at home where they are 8-0 on the season. In terms of the spread, they are an impressive 27-11 ATS in their last 38 home games and have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS in January home games the past two seasons. They are also 10-1 ATS the last three seasons in home games versus excellent teams like Seton Hall that shoot 45% or better from the field and hold opponents to 42% or worse. They have won these games by an average score of 74.1 to 64.5. It is also worth noting that the Musketeers are 6-0 ATS in their last six Wednesday games. Lay the points.

7* Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -2.5

The Key: Minnesota has dropped its last two but both were on the road. Now the Golden Gophers are home where they are 9-0 on the season. 15 games or more into the schedule, Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams that outscore the opposition by 4.0 ppg or more under coach Pitino. It has won these contests by an average score of 74.5 to 66.3. Ohio State is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six road games and 0-6 ATS the last two seasons in road games following a stretch of five or six wins in a seven-game span. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to fade road teams that have beaten the spread by 18 total points or more over their last three games when they are matched up against an opponent that has gone under the total by 18 total points or more in their last three games. Doing so has produced a 20-1 ATS record over the last three seasons. Lay the number.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Nuggets/Timberwolves Over 209

The Key: We saw 208 total points scored when these teams played the day after Christmas, and we saw this amount despite very poor shooting from both teams. In fact, they combined to shoot barely 40% overall and just 17.6% from 3-point range. The pace of the game was very fast, which has been the norm when these teams get together. That's why we've seen an average of 226.4 total points scored in the last five meetings. The "over" is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Minnesota. With a fast pace and both teams shooting the ball just a little bit better, this one should find its way over the total.

7* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on VMI +1.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Mercer, which is playing its second road game in three days. VMI has had the last two days off so it should be the fresher side. It should also be the hungrier side as it looks to stop a three-game skid and get revenge for a Dec. 6 loss at Mercer. The Bears haven't been the same team on the road where they are 1-5 this season. They did notch their first road win of the season (by 21 points) at UNC Greensboro last time out but are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 20 points. The Keydets will be happy to be home after three straight on the road versus tough competition. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games following three or more consecutive road games. The Keydets are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Take VMI.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Towson -2.5

The Key: Elon is playing its second road games in three days, and that's been a tough situation for the Phoenix under coach Matheny. In fact, they are 5-14 ATS under their current coach when playing a second road games in three days. The Phoenix are also 2-10 ATS in their last 12 versus Colonial Athletic Association foes. Lay the points.

6* GoDaddy Bowl "Total" Annihilator on Toledo/Arkansas State Under 69.5

The Key: You want to play the "under" when the total is between 63.5 and 70.0 in a neutral-field matchup between teams that average 440.0 ypg or more as doing so has produced a 32-16 mark the last 10 seasons. In addition, Toledo is on a 9-0 "under" run versus teams that average 31.0 ppg or more and a 9-0 "under" run versus teams that average 450.0 ypg or more. Arkansas State is on a 7-0 "under" run in games played away from home after allowed 31 points or more in its last two games. Take the under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings +4

The Key: The Kings are showing value catching points against a Detroit team that is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Kings were a terrible investment in December but are now showing great value here as odds makers have overadjusted their lines. You want to take underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games when they are taking on an opponent that has covered the spread in four or five of their last six games. Doing so has produced a 77-37 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

6* Pac-12 *POWERHOUSE* on Washington State +9.5

The Key: While the line is currently 9.5, it opened at 10.0 so the following system still applies. You want to fade favorites of 10.0 to 19.5 points that are off a win of six points or less when they are matched up against an opponent that is off a loss of 15 points or more as doing so has produced a 125-74 ATS mark the last five seasons. Cal is off a big win over Washington so it will have a hard time getting refocused to face a Washington State team it swept last season. The Golden Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Cougars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning record. Take the points.

6* Sunday NFC Wild Card Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Lions +7.5

The Key: Dallas is being overvalued following four straight impressive wins and covers to close the regular season. Detroit is the superior defensive team, and this is the time of year to side with defense. In games played eight games or more into the schedule, you want to back teams that give up just 14.0-18.0 ppg when they are matched up against a team that allows 18.0-23.0 ppg as doing so has produced a 50-24 ATS mark over the last five seasons. So much of Dallas' success has stemmed from its running game, but now the Cowboys will be up against the top run-stuffing unit in the league. Romo is just 5-17 ATS versus teams that give up only 14.6-20.6 ppg. Dallas is 8-19 ATS as a home favorite under coach Garrett and just 1-8 ATS under its current coach following a stretch of five or six covers in a seven-game span.

7* Wild Card Game of the Year on Bengals +4

The Key: I think Cincinnati will want this game just a little bit more. It was embarrassed 27-0 in Indy Oct. 19 so it will be highly motivated. Plus, this Bengals team will draw additional motivated from three consecutive early exits from the postseason. The aforementioned loss to the Colts was a turning point in Cincy's season as it responded by going 7-3 the rest of the way, including 4-1 on the road. The Colts are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games versus teams that have a winning record. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Marvin Lewis in road games when seeking revenge for a loss to a team that held them to fewer than nine points. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on San Francisco +5

The Key: This is a very difficult spot for BYU, playing a second road game in three days and riding high off a blowout win over Santa Clara. The Cougars have been a terrible investment following a cover at 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 games following an ATS win. They are also 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a win of more than 20 points and 0-6 ATS the last two seasons following a stretch of eight wins or more in a 10-game span. The Dons will be highly motivated after dropping their last two league games, and they will also be fueled by losing each of last season's three meetings with the Cougars. The Dons are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss and 41-15 ATS in their last 56 versus West Coast Conference foes. San Francisco is also 14-5 ATS all-time under coach Rex Walters following a home loss to a conference opponent. Take the points.

7* Saturday NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +4

The Key: I'm not hesitating to grab the points with the Ravens considering how tight this series has been. While this season's two prior meetings resulted in blowout victories for the home team, this has not been the norm. Entering the season, these two had played each other to within three points or fewer in nine of 11 battles, including five straight. Including this season, Baltimore has won or lost by fewer than four points in seven of the last eight meetings. This has been a good time of year to back the Ravens as they are on a 5-0 ATS run in the playoffs, a 4-0 ATS run in road playoff games and a 4-0 ATS run in wild card contests. In addition, you want to take teams like Baltimore after a game in which they didn't commit a turnover if they are up against an opponent that committed three or more turnovers last game. Doing so has produced a 73-52 ATS record the last five seasons. Baltimore is 7-0 ATS the last three seasons in road games after a game with a turnover margin of plus-two or better and has won by an average score of 24.9 to 19.0 in this spot. Take the points.

6* Saturday NFC Wild Card Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Cardinals +6.5

The Key: You want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points eight games or more into the schedule if they allowed three points or less in the first half of their last game and if it's a matchup between these with a +/-3 3.0 points per game differential. Doing so has produced a 38-10 ATS mark since 1983, including a perfect 6-0 ATS record over the last five seasons. Arizona has hung its hat on defense all season. While it held the 49ers to just 20 points last time out, it allowed them to gain 395 yards on 59 plays. This is no deterrent for me as teams headed up by Arians are 9-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 yards per play or more in their previous game and have won these nine by an average score of 21.7 to 13.9. Carolina's struggles against the run also bode well for the Cardinals. Arians' teams are 7-0 ATS in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 4.5 yards per carry or more, and they have won these by an average score of 25.4 to 16.9. The Panthers are off a big win and cover in Atlanta but are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Loyola Marymount +9.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for St. Mary's as it plays a second road game in three days. Consider that the Gaels are 2-10 ATS the last three seasons in road games when playing a second game in three days and have lost these contests by an average score of 65.6 to 64.5. We are getting some additional line value here because the Gaels have covered their last three games and Loyola Marymount has failed to cover its last two. St. Mary's is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Under the Radar Line Mistake on UNC Wilmington +4.5

The Key: UNC Wilmington is better than its 5-6 record might lead you to believe. Eight of its games have been true road contests, including each of its last three. The Seahawks are 3-0 at home this season and will be excited to finally get back in front of the home fans. They will also be extremely hungry after losing all three of last season's meetings with Hofstra. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. They are on a 10-2 ATS run at home after a game where they were called for at least 10 fouls more than their opponent.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Mississippi State +2.5

The Key: Now's the time to fade Florida State, which has won its last four and is coming off a big upset win over in-state rival Florida. The Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games and on a 12-26 ATS slide following four or more consecutive victories. Mississippi State is on a 29-15 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. It is also on a 22-10 ATS run at home when the line is +3 to -3. Lastly, the Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams that are called for 3.0 or more fouls per game than their opponents under coach Ray. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Magic +1.5

The Key: Brooklyn is primed for a letdown as it has won five of six and is coming off a big win over Chicago. It also has a revenge game against Miami on deck so it will likely be looking ahead to that matchup rather than focusing on a team it defeated by eight points earlier this season. The home team has had a significant edge in this series as it is 6-0 in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 12.2 points. Take Orlando.

7* NCAAF Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +4

The Key: Iowa underachieved this season, and the coaching staff is taking plenty of heat from the fan base as a result. If Iowa loses to Tennessee, head coach Kirk Ferentz will enter next season on the hot seat. I expect him to have his team fully prepared and motivated to make sure that doesn't happen. Ferentz typically does a good job in bowl prep and is an impressive 4-2 in bowls versus current SEC teams. Iowa blew a big lead and lost to Nebraska in OT in its regular-season finale, but it has been terrific in bounce-back spots at 41-19-1 ATS in its last 61 games following a loss. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS the last two seasons when playing away from home following a loss and have won these games by an average of 10.2 points. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games and 4-1 ATS in their last five versus SEC foes. Take the points.

6* Sugar Bowl Bailout on Alabama -8.5

The Key: Cardale Jones looked pretty good against Wisconsin in his first college start, but he was able to play more free with a big lead in his back pocket. He won't have the same luxury here as he goes up against an entirely different animal. I expect his inexperience to really show against an elite defense. Ohio State is 0-9 against the SEC in bowls (2011 Sugar Bowl win against Arkansas was vacated). The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus Big Ten opponents. The SEC has won seven of the last eight national titles. It's the superior conference, and Alabama is in good position to continue the dominance against an Ohio State team in a tough QB predicament.

6* Rose Bowl *CA$H COW* on Florida State +9

The Key: The defending national champs won't go down without a fight, and I expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder. They are being completely disrespected by odds makers, and Jameis Winston will be out to prove that he is the better QB after not even being invited to the Heisman ceremony this year. He also catches a break as Oregon will be without first-team All-America corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. Winston is 29-0 as a starter, and the Noles 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 bowl games. Take the points.

7* New Year's Day *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin +7

The Key: Wisconsin will be lacking no motivation after being brutally embarrassed in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers will draw added motivation from head coach Gary Anderson leaving for Oregon State. They will be out to show Anderson he made the wrong move. Auburn won't be that excited about this game after playing for a national title last year. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams that have a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last six games on grass. Wisconsin wasn't able to run the football on Ohio State as it was held to just 71 yards on the ground, but Auburn isn't as physical as Ohio State up front. Besides, the Badgers take pride in their running attack and are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Take the points.

7* Orange Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Mississippi State -6.5

The Key: Mississippi State has done an excellent job stuffing the run this season. It ended the regular season ranked 25th in the nation against the run with 126.5 yards per game allowed. With a month to prepare for Georgia Tech's run-heavy attack, the Bulldogs should take care of business. They are 11-3 ATS versus excellent running teams that average 5.25 yards per carry or more under coach Mullen. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games and 1-4 ATS in their last five versus SEC opponents. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Purdue +2

The Key: This is a bad spot for the Golden Gophers, who will be on the road for the first time since Dec. 2. They will also have a tendency to look ahead to Saturday's showdown at Maryland. Purdue has lost its last three, falling to Gardner-Webb in its most recent contest, so it will highly motivated here. Purdue is 7-0 in its last seven home games versus Minnesota and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall. It is also 8-0 ATS on Wednesday the last two seasons. The Golden Gophers are on a 0-7 ATS slide after two consecutive games where both it and its opponent scored 75 points or more. Take Purdue.

6* NCAAB Under the Radar *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +3

The Key: I like South Alabama catching points at home in a game in which it should be highly motivated. The Jaguars have lost four straight to Arkansas State, including an ugly 24-point loss on this floor in the most recent matchup, and they will be out for some serious revenge. Arkansas State has been a poor play in Sun Belt action at 0-7 ATS in its last seven versus conference foes. It is also worth noting that the Red Wolves are 2-9 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road favorite under coach Brady and have lost in this spot by an average score of 74.5 to 66.5. Lastly, you want take any team that has been held to 65 points or less in three straight games that returns two more starters than their opponent. Doing so has produced a 190-119 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA Total of the Month on Spurs/Grizzlies Under 194.5

The Key: Odds makers are well off the mark here. The total was set at 191.0 the last time these teams met. They tallied 233 total points in that game but needed triple-OT to do so. They combined for just 184 points at the end of regulation so this number should have went the other way if anything. The Spurs are 8-1 "under" this season in road games after playing a home game, and we have seen just 187.0 total points scored on average in these contests. Take the under.

7* Pre-New Year's Bowl Game of the Year on Notre Dame +7.5

The Key: Notre Dame is being undervalued because of a 0-4 finish that ended with a 49-14 loss at USC. I'll gladly take the points as the Fighting Irish won or lost by four points or less in all but two games this season. This is too many points for LSU to be laying considering how much it has struggled offensively this season. The Tigers rank 83rd in the country in total offense and have no passing game. The Fighting Irish will make LSU beat them through the air, and I don't see it happening. While LSU is stout defensively, Notre Dame has an offense capable of giving the Tigers problems. The Irish boast the 34th-best offense in the nation overall and the 16th-best passing attack. In addition, LSU is 1-8 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home that following a win. It has lost these contests by an average score of 24.5 to 19.6. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Kings/Nets Under 204.5

The Key: You want to play the "under" on teams like Brooklyn that are off two or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against an opponent that is off five or more consecutive overs. Doing so has produced a 60-25 mark the last five seasons. The under is 9-1 in the Nets' last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 6-0 in their last six versus the Western Conference and 4-0 in their last four games following an ATS loss. Take the under.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on James Madison +3.5

The Key: As if back-to-back losses to High Point and Norfolk aren't enough motivation, James Madison was clobbered 81-49 at Valpo last season. Look for the Dukes to have their revenge tonight. You want to fade favorites that have had seven or more days off in a non-conference matchup between mid-majors as doing so has produced a 35-12 ATS mark the last five seasons. Valpo has been able to take it to its opponents on the boards, but I expect James Madison to be up to the challenge here. The Dukes are on a 13-3 ATS run versus teams that outrebound the opposition by 7.0 boards per game or more. Take the points.

7* Liberty Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M +2.5

The Key: West Virginia has struggled against strong passing teams like Texas A&M. In fact, the Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home versus teams that average 275.0 yards per game through the air or more. They have lost these contests by an average score of 47.7 to 23.5. It is also worth noting that West Virginia hasn't performed well when getting extra time off in recent seasons. It is 0-7 ATS the last three seasons when getting more than a typical week of preparation time. In addition, the Mountaineers are on a 0-8 ATS slide when laying points on a neutral field and have lost these games by an average score of 30.4 to 24.5. Sumlin does an excellent job preparing his kids and has won his first two bowls at A&M. Take the Aggies.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Spurs +1

The Key: Even if Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard doubtful, I like the Spurs at home in what should be a highly motivated spot. The Spurs have lost their last two and were routed in the season's first meeting with Houston so they will be out for payback. The Spurs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a winning road record. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to fade road teams that went over the total by 18 points or more in their previous game if they have a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 31-7 ATS mark the last five seasons.