Sports Picks & Predictions

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -3.5
The Key: Kent State's poor performance at Kentucky stacks the odds against it tonight as it is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU loss, 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS loss and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games after being held to less than 20 points in its previous game. The Golden Flashes are also 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Kent State has lost 4 of its last 5 against Buffalo and is 1-3-1 ATS in those contests. Bet Buffalo.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -120
The Key: The Orioles are 3-0 in Tillman's last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 2.70. They are also 4-0 in his last 4 road starts, and he is 3-0 lifetime against Seattle with an ERA of 0.83. The Mariners are 0-5 in Noesi's last 5 starts, 0-5 in his last 5 home starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog. The Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-5 in their last 5 games against the Orioles. Bet Baltimore.

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Falcons -3
The Key: I love the Falcons at home tonight considering they went 6-2 at home last season and are a tremendous 26-6 at home in the regular season the last four years. Plus, the Falcons are on a 25-13 ATS run as favorites, a 12-4 ATS run against AFC foes and a 10-2 ATS run in home games in the 1st half of the season. I'm expecting a strong season from the Falcons, and I'm confident they'll make a big statement with an impressive win tonight.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Lions +7
The Key: The Lions are being undervalued here because they only defeated the Rams by 4 points in Week 1. However, Detroit outgained St. Louis by 178 yards in that contest. It would have won comfortably had it not been for turnovers. Those miscues will have the Lions all the more focused tonight. The 49ers only won last season's meeting by 6 points and they were extremely fortunate to do so as they trailed with under 2 minutes left. Detroit has a more explosive offense than San Francisco, and it has a defense capable of really slowing down the Niners as we saw in last year's battle. Take the points in what should be a close contest.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -116
The Key: The D-backs have lost the first two games of this series and they're favored with Corbin on the hill, who has lost his last 3 decisions? This really speaks to how poorly Vogelsong has pitched. He has been hit hard in his last 3 (8.79 ERA L3 starts), and nobody hit him harder than Arizona in this stretch. The Snakes tagged him for 6 runs and knocked him out in 3 1-3 innings. Corbin has a solid 3.60 home ERA. I expect a solid performance from him and for the D-back sticks to take care of the rest.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Cowboys -3
The Key: This is a complete mismatch. The Cowboys have won their last 3 against the Seahawks by 25, 21 and 10 points. They have an enormous advantage at QB with proven veteran Tony Romo. Seattle rookie Russell Wilson struggled in the opener, and I expect those struggles to continue against a strong Dallas pass rush. Ware picked up 2 sacks against the Giants, and I expect him to be breathing down Wilson's neck all afternoon. Fading home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) that are coming off a losing season and enter off a defeat on the road has produced a 50-17 ATS record the last 29 years. This golden system is 12-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet the Boys.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Eagles -1
The Key: The Ravens find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot as they face the explosive Eagles on a short week after playing Monday night. This is incredibly significant because the Blackbirds are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games following a Monday Night Football contest. The Ravens won big in their opener but are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 14 points. Philly is perhaps the most talented team in the NFL. It outgained Cleveland 456-210 in Week 1 and would have blown the Browns out had it not been for 5 turnovers. Those turnovers work in our favor here as Philly will be much more focused on taking care of the football this week.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Phillies -159
The Key: The Astros are 14-56 in their last 70 overall and 6-23 in their last 29 home games. They are 0-4 in Keuchel's last 4 starts and 1-10 in his last 11 starts. They are 0-5 in Keuchel's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 0-8 in his last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game and 0-7 in his last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Phillies are 4-0 in Kendrick's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and I expect him to outduel Keuchel here.

6* Saturday Night Line Mistake on North Texas +28.5
The Key: North Texas only lost by 27 at LSU and shouldn't be catching more than that here. K-State buried Miami last week, but it will be much more interested in its next game against Oklahoma. Because the Mean Green have already stepped on the field with LSU, they won't be lacking any confidence. North Texas is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games. Take the points.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Tennessee -3
The Key: I'm confident Tennessee is the better team in this matchup. With the home crowd behind them and fueled by 7 straight losses to Florida, expect the Vols to roll. The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. They are even 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in the underdog role, losing these by an average of 18.6 points. Lastly, Florida has lost its last 4 SEC games away from home with each of those coming by at least 4 points. Take Tennessee.

6* Early Underdog *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +10.5
The Key: The Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record, 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after outgaining an opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. The Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Panthers and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Pittsburgh. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the poinst.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on UNLV +8.5
The Key: The fact the rebels are only catching 8.5 points against a team that defeated them by 52 last season tells us all we need to know. Consider that home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a non-conference matchup, if they had a terrible defense last season that allowed 425 or more total yards/game, are 41-14 ATS since 1992. These teams have only lost by an average of 0.3 points in this situation. The Rebels are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, and I expect them to give the Cougars a game tonight.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -162
The Key: I've been riding Medlen since he broke into the starting lineup this season, and I'm not going to stop riding him now. The Braves are 19-0 in his last 19 starts. Atlanta enters off a loss, but it is 11-0 in Medlen's last 11 starts following a team loss. The Braves are also 9-0 in his last 9 starts versus team with a winning record, 11-0 in his last 11 starts in the second half of the team versus NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse and 10-0 in his last 10 starts in the second half of the season versus team that strike out 7 or more times/game. The Braves are 10-0 in his last 10 starts vs. the National League East and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Nationals are 0-4 in Detwiler's last 4 starts as a road underdog of +151 to +200. Braves money line.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Bears +6
The Key: The fact Da Bears opened the season with an impressive 20-point win over Indy is significant because they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The fact the Bears covered the spread in their opener is also significant because they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Bears are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NFC and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Green Bay defense clearly still has some kinks to work out. I like Chicago's balanced offensive attack to cause all kinds of problems for the the Green Bay "D" tonight. Take the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -1.5 -108
The Key: The Indians are 0-5 in their last 5 games (2.8-run avg. losing margin), 0-5 in McAllister's last 5 starts (3.8-run avg. losing margin) and 0-4 in McAllister's last 4 road starts (2.5-run avg. losing margin). The Rangers are 3-0 in Holland's last 3 home starts (3.7-run avg. winning margin) and 5-0 in his 5 career starts against the Tribe (4.2-run avg. winning margin). Texas is also 6-0 in its last 6 at home against Cleveland (4.0-run avg. winning margin. Take Texas on the run line.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on South Florida -7.5
The Key: The Bulls are clearly the more talented team, they are at home and they'll be looking to pay Rutgers back for last season's upset loss. The Bulls fit into a sweet system as well. Playing on favorites of 3.5-10.0 points in the 1st month of the season after finishing the previous season with 2 consecutive defeats or more are 16-5 ATS the last 10 seasons as long as the team they are playing finished the previous season with 4 wins or more in its final 5 contests. I expect this system to cash another ticket tonight.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -133
The Key: The Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 meetings in Milwaukee. The Brewers are 8-0 in Gallardo's last 8 starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts on regular rest (4 days), 8-0 in his last 8 starts in the third game of a series and 11-0 in his last 11 home starts in the second half of the season versus an an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse. Maholm is 0-6 on the money line in his last 6 starts against teh Brewers. Take Milwaukee.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -1.5 -120
The Key: The Indians are 0-5 in Jimenez's last 5 starts (3.0-run avg. losing margin) and 0-8 in his last 8 road starts (3.6-run avg. losing margin). They are also 0-4 in their last 4 in Arlington (4.8-run avg. losing margin). The Rangers are 5-0 in Harrison's last 5 starts as a favorite of -200 or greater (4.2-run avg. winning margin). Bet the Rangers on the run line.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Chargers +1
The Key: The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue as San Diego has won 7 of its last 8 on the road in this series. The Chargers are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus AFC foes. The Raiders are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 on Monday Night Football.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -144
The Key: The Nats have won 16 of their last 21 versus the Mets and are 5-0 in their last 5 against them in New York. The Mets are just 6-21 in their last 27 home games, 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog and 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Nationals are 21-7 in Gonzalez's last 28 starts, 10-2 in his last 12 road starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* (NBC) on Steelers +2
The Key: The Broncos have been a poor bet at home where they are 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51. The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the AFC. The Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1. Plus, the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Pittsburgh wants this game badly after getting bounced from the playoffs by Denver last season. Peyton Manning has had a special NFL career, but I'm not sold on him here against the top defense in the league a year ago. I expect it will take Manning some time to turn Denver's offense into a well-oiled machine. Take Pittsburgh.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Cardinals +3
The Key: The Seahawks are getting too much respect here with a rookie QB set to make his first. Russell Wilson hasn't done anything in the NFL yet while Arizona's John Skelton led the Cards to a 6-2 record in games he appeared in last year. The Seahawks are a poor 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 road games. The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NFC, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC West. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings, and the Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Arizona. Take the points as Cards win outright.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -119
The Key: Despite losing the first 2 games of this series, the Cards are still 21-8 in their last 29 at home, 18-8 in their last 26 vs. Milwaukee and 9-3 in their last 12 at home against the Brewers. Milwaukee is just 6-14 in Marcum's lst 20 starts, 2-7 in his last 9 road starts and 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs. the Cardinals. It's also important to note that the Brewers are 0-4 in Marcum's last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in his last 4 starts falling in the third game of a series.

6* AFC East *CA$H COW* on Jets -2.5
The Key: The Jets are 5-0 in their last 5 versus the Bills, and all of these wins have come by four points or more. I like NY to continue its dominance in the series at home, where it went 6-2 last season, against a Bills team that only went 1-7 on the road last year. The Bills are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road contests. Lay the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -160
The Key: The Braves are 18-0 in Medlen's last 18 starts, and they are a perfect 3-0 all-time in his starts against the Mets. Medlen has a 0.54 ERA in 7 starts this season and a 0.00 ERA over his last 3 starts.

6* In-State Rivalry *CA$H COW* on Iowa -3.5
The Key: The Hawkeyes are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and 6-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Under coach Ferentz, Iowa is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less and 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points (It has won by an average score of 36.8 to 18.5 in these games). Iowa has won 3 of 4 and 21 of last 29 in the series, including 4 in a row at home.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Miami (FL) +7
The Key: Kansas State hugely overachieved last season and last year's success has translated into the Wildcats being overvalued here. Even last week's 51-9 win over Missouri State is misleading as they were tied 9-9 in the 3rd quarter and gave up over 400 yards of offense. Miami has the potential to do even more damage against K-State's suspect defense. The Wildcats were outgained by an average of 106.8 yard in Big 12 play last season. That stat alone shows how fortunate they were. The Hurricanes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The Hurricanes are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Big 12.

6* National TV *CA$H COW* (ABC) on Penn State +10
The Key: Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first 2 weeks of the year, bowl team from prior season who lost its last 2 games, are 30-7 ATS since 1992. This system is a perfect 10-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. I feel this line is an overreaction to Penn State's Week 1 performance. Expect the Nittany Lions to keep this one within the number.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -133
The Key: Gallardo has pitched much better over the last 5 weeks, but he just got rocked his last time out, and he has never fared well against St. Louis. He's 1-10 with an ERA of 7.06 in 14 career starts against the Cards. He's 0-6 in his last 6 starts versus the Cardinals, and the Brewers have dropped those contests by an average of 4.7 runs. Lohse (14-2, 2.81) has won both of his starts versus Milwaukee this season in impressive fashion. Bet St. Louis.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah -7
The Key: Utah has won 8 in a row against Utah State by a minimum of 16 points. It has also won 6 in a row on the road in the series by 8 points or more. Keep in mind the last 5 road wins have come by at least 20 points. Utah State has some nice pieces on offense, but it didn't see a defense last season like it's about to see tonight. I expect Utah's DT Star Lotulelei to be very disruptive. I also expect the Utes to be able to run the football effectively with John White. In the end superior defense and a big game on the ground from White should get us the cover.

6* National TV *CASH COW* on Cincinnati -4
The Key: With just 4 days to prepare for a team they have lost to 3 times in the past 4 seasons, the Panthers are going to have a tough time bouncing back from last week's disappointing performance against Youngstown State. Pitt is just 17-32 ATS following a home loss the last 20 years, including 5-17 ATS in this situation provided the loss came by at least 14 points. The home team is a rock solid 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and I fully expect this trend to hold up tonight.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -1.5 -106
The Key: The Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 games with an average losing margin of 4.0 runs in these contests. They are also 0-7 in their last 7 road games losing those by an average of 3.4 runs. The Cubs are 0-9 this season in road games following 5 or more straight defeats, losing in this situation by an average of 2.6 runs. Germano is 0-3 on the money in his last 3 starts and those losses have come by 6.0 runs on average. He's also 0-8 on the money line in his last 8 road starts with those losses coming by 3.4 runs on average. Lastly, the Nats are 4-0 in their last 4 games with an average winning margin of 4.0 runs. Nats on the run line.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -3.5
The Key: The Cowboys were 0-6 ATS versus NFC East opponents last season, losing those games by an average of 9.2 points. New York has especially had Dallas' number. It swept the season series last year and has won 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 9. Tom Coughlin's Giants have endured some mid-season slumps, but he always had them ready to play early. In fact, Coughlin's teams are 21-9 ATS in September home games all-time. Lay the number.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -1.5 -113
The Key: Gio Gonzalez has been tough on everyone this season, but he's especially been tough on the NL Central. The Nationals are 8-0 in his starts against NL Central foes this season, and they have won these games by an average of 3.0 runs. The Cubs, meanwhile, are 0-6 in Chris Volstad's 6 road starts this season, and they have lost these by an average of 3.7 runs. Bet Washington on the run line.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -1.5 +105
The Key: Fading the Pirates with Lyles on the mound as a road underdog of +151 to +200 has produced a 9-0 mark all-time that has won by an average of 3.4 runs. The Astros are also 0-4 this season in Lyle's road starts in the 2nd game of a series. They have dropped these by an average of 4.3 runs. Houston is even 0-11 in Lyle's road starts vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. It has lost these by an average score of 7.5 to 3.1. Pound Pittsburgh on the run line.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -7.5
The Key: The Hokies have dominated conference competition at 43-21 ATS in their last 64 conference games. The Yellow Jackets, meanwhile, are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. Under coach Beamer, VA Tech is 38-18 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. It has won by an average score of 29.5 to 17.4 in this situation. The Hokies won last season's meeting by 11 on the road. They had the superior defense and a more balanced offensive attack in that contest. This should remain the case. We'll lay the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5 -108
The Key: The Braves are a perfect 17-0 in Kris Medlen's last 17 starts, winning those by an average of 3.4 runs. 6 of those wins have come this season, and he has posted an ERA of just 0.66 in those outings. He has a 0.00 over his last 3 starts and the Braves have won his last 10 starts by 2 runs or more. Bet the Braves on the run line.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baylor -8.5
The Key: Baylor no longer has Robert Griffin III, but the program is more equipped than ever before to handle such a loss. QB Nick Florence gained valuable starting experience in 2009 and he has certainly learned from RG3. WR Terrance Williams is an elite weapon, and he's not the only piece of artillery at Florence's disposal in a deep receiving corps. The biggest reason I like the Bears, however, is their defense. Expect a stop unit that returns 8 starts to be much improved. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. SMU.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -166
The Key: The Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 overall and 8-0 in their last 8 games as a favorite. They are 8-0 in Weaver's last 8 road starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite of -151 to -200. The Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. This 30-0 angle is strengthened by the fact the Angels have won 38 of the last 53 meetings overall and 35 of the last 52 in Seattle. The Angels are also 9-2 in Weaver's last 11 starts vs. the Mariners.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Colorado State +6.5
The Key: I love the Rams catching this many points as I believe they have an excellent chance to win this one outright. Colorado ranked 109th nationally in both scoring (19.8 ppg) and scoring defense (36.5 ppg) last season, and I don't it making any drastic improvements. The Buffaloes were counting on huge offensive production from WR Paul Richardson, and he is out indefinitely after suffering an ACL injury. Without Richardson to move the chains and stretch the field, the Buffs will have an even tougher time getting their anemic running game going. Taking underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO ST) in the first month of the season that return 6 or more starters than their opponent has produced a 46-16 ATS result the last 2 decades. The underdog has scored an average of 23.9 points in this situation while the favorite has only scored an average of 24.2. And, it's also worth mentioning that Colorado is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 Saturday games away from home.

6* National TV *CA$H COW* (ABC/ESPN2) on Nebraska -19.5
The Key: This is not the same So. Miss team that went 12-2 last season under Larry Fedora. This team no longer has Fedora on the sidelines. It is also is without QB Austin Davis and 11 others who started last season. That's a lot to replace. Nebraska is simply unbeatable in home openers as it enjoys one of the best home-field advantages in the country. The Huskers are 26-0 SU (12-4-1 ATS) in home openers going back 26 years, and they have won those contests by over 34 points on average.

6* National TV *CA$H COW* (ABC/ESPN2) on Miami (Fl) -2.5
The Key: I really believe Boston College is out of its league in terms of talent in this matchup. The Eagles won last season's meeting with Miami, but that was only their 5th victory in 28 meetings. And, they would have never got the "W" had the Canes not given the ball away 4 times. Miami will be out for payback, and I can't see Boston College being able to do anything about it. The Eagles have one of the worst offenses in the nation, and their defense was hurt by the loss of Luke Kuechly. The Hurricanes are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games while the Eagles are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -155
The Key: Love the Giants today with a rested Lincecum on the bump. He has been lights out on the road of late, allowing 2 runs or less in each of his last 3 road starts. Plus, the Giants are 4-0 in his last 4 starts coming on 5 days' rest. The Cubs are 0-4 in Germano's last 4 starts as an underdog, and he has been rocked in each of his last 2 outings. The Cubs are 8-22 in their last 30 overall and 5-17 when playing on Saturday this season. The Giants are 8-3 in their last 11 overall, 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 5-1 in the last 6 against the Cubs.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan State -6.5
The Key: The Broncos and Spartans both lost some key players, but I believe Michigan State brings back more. It has a nice running back in Le'Veon Bell and the defense is still stacked with talent. William Gholston (70 tackles 5 sacks in 2011), Denicos Allen (11 sacks last year) and Max Bullough (89 stops, 3.5 sacks last season) anchor a ferocious front seven. The Spartans led the Big Ten and ranked 6th nationally in total defense a season ago, and I believe they can be every bit as good in 2012. This defense will cause major problems for a Boise State program that tries to adjust to life without Kellen Moore and Doug Martin. Take the Spartans and lay the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -153
The Key: The Indians are 0-14 this season after hitting .225 or worse over a 10-game span. They are also 0-4 in their last 4 series openers, 0-5 in their last 5 home contests and 0-6 in their last 6 Friday matchups. The Tribe is 0-3 in Jimenez's last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 8.59. The Rangers have won 22 of 28 versus the Indians, including 12 of their last 15 in Cleveland. They are 4-1 in Dempster's starts since he joined the club.

6* NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Washington State +12
The Key: BYU is being overvalued here. It went 10-3 last season but benefited from a soft schedule. Washington State is a better team than last season's 4-8 record showed, and I expect to be even more improved this season under Leach. The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or greater and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -176
The Key: I don't play favorites this large often in baseball, but I believe the Giants are well worth it here. The Astros are 8-47 in their last 55 overall, 0-6 in their last 6 Thursday games, 0-5 in Lyles' last 5 home starts, 0-6 in his last 6 starts as a home underdog, 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog of +151 to +200 and 0-5 in his last 5 starts in the 3rd game of a series. The Astros are also 0-5 in their last 5 against the Giants.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Vanderbilt +7
The Key: The Commodores aren't getting the respect they deserve at home this evening. They are a perfect 7-0 ATS at home under coach Franklin and have won these games by an average score of 33.9 to 19.3. Vandy is also 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games in the underdog role. It took Georgia and Arkansas down to the wire at home last season, and I like it to come through against the Gamecocks as well.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Dolphins +2.5
The Key: Playing against home teams with a line of +3 to -3 that have a winning record in the preseason and are coming off 1 or more consecutive wins has produced a sensational 41-16 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This golden system has already produced a 5-1 ATS mark this preseason. Dallas has nothing to prove here as it must be healthy for its season opener against the Giants a week from tonight. Miami, which is 0-3 this preseason, has a lot more to prove. Take the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -127
The Key: The Braves are 11-2 in Tommy Hanson's last 13 starts and 17-5 in his last 22 road starts. Plus, the Braves have never lost to the Padres in San Diego with Hanson on the hill. They are 3-0 all-time in his starts at Petco and have won those by an average of 5.3 runs. Hanson has never given up more than 2 runs to the Padres in 5 career starts against them. Bet the Braves.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -154
The Key: The Braves are 16-0 in Medlen's last 16 starts, 8-0 in his last 8 road starts, 11-0 in his last 11 starts as a favorite, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 7-0 in his last 7 starts on 5 days' rest. Atlanta lost yesterday, but they are 10-0 in Medlen's last 10 starts when he gets the ball following a team loss. The Braves have won by an average score of 6.0 to 2.6 in this situation. Take Atlanta.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mariners -158
The Key: The Mariners are at a major advantage with Hernandez on the hill. They are 7-1 in his last 8 starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. The Twins, who have lost 7 of 8 at home, are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, 0-7 in their last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record, 0-4 in Hendriks' last 4 starts vs. the American League West, 0-5 in Hendriks' last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-6 in his last 6 home starts. Lastly, the Mariners are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with Minnesota. Bet Seattle.

7* NFLX Game of the Year on Jets -1
The Key: I love the Jets tonight. This team, which made the AFC championship in the 2009 and 2010 seasons, is out to prove its still a force to be reckoned with following a mediocre 8-8 campaign. I'm confident it is. New York has ranked in the top 5 in total defense each of the past 3 seasons, and I love this year's unit. It has the potential to be better than any of the previous 3 units. Carolina won't be able to stretch the field the same way tonight without Steve Smith, who is expected to miss with a foot infection, and I don't see the Panthers running all over a New York "D" that is allowing just 2.29 yards per carry this preseason. The Panthers are just 15-32 ATS in their last 47 preseason games against the AFC, losing those by an average of 5.4 points. Take New York.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -159
The Key: The Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4, and they've lost the first 2 games of this series by 7 and 6 runs, respectively. The Marlins are also 0-4 in Buehrle's last 4 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Fish have lost 8 of his 12 road starts on the season so he clearly isn't winning pitching duels away from home. The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL East and 5-0 in their last 5 Sunday games. LA has won 5 of its last 6 vs. Miami, and it should continue its dominance here.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Raiders +3
The Key: The Raiders are 2-0 SU and ATS in their last 2 preseason games versus Detroit. The Raiders are 0-2 this preseason but have outgained each of their first two opponents. That's a very good sign. The Lions should not be laying points on the road to a team that has been pretty solid the past two seasons. Playing against favorites that allowed 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game that are up against an opponent that gained 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in 2 straight games has produced a 30-12 ATS record in the preseason since 1993. Take the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -103
The Key: The Brewers won yesterday, but I'm not hesitating in fading them today. They are still only 17-38 in their last 55 road games, 4-13 in their last 17 games as an underdog and 0-7 in their last 7 Saturday games. Plus, I'm expecting Marcum to struggle as he makes his first start in over 2 months. The Brewers are 5-12 in Marcum's last 17 starts and 1-5 in his last 6 road starts. He'll likely be on a pitch count, which means the Pirates will get to see plenty of a bullpen that carries a high 4.76 ERA. Lastly, the Pirates are a perfect 5-0 in Karstens' starts vs. the National League Central this season, and he has a lights out 2.53 ERA in these games.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Vikings -3
The Key: San Diego has won its first 2 preseason games both SU and ATS, but I'm confident it goes down tonight. The Vikings are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 home preseason games versus the Chargers. This is a trend that dates back to 1996. This game means more to a Minnesota team that is trying to turn things around following a 3-13 season. Ponder has looked good, and I like the depth behind him with Webb and Rosenfels. The Chargers know what they have in Rivers. Plus injuries to Vincent Brown and Ryan Matthews will force the Chargers to tread cautiously the rest of the preseason. Take Minnesota.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cubs -155
The Key: Colorado has been playing better baseball lately, but it can't be trusted on the road with the southpaw Drew Pomeranz on the mound. The Rockies are 0-4 in Pomeranz's last 4 starts vs. the National League Central and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Plus, the Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. In addition, the Cubs are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing record, 7-2 in their last 9 games as a home favorite, 7-3 in Samardzija's 10 home starts this season and 20-8 in their last 28 home games against the Rockies. Take the Cubbies.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Phillies -110
The Key: Plain and simple, Cole Hamels has absolutely owned the Reds. He have never lost to them, going 10-0 on the money line in 10 career starts with an ERA of only 1.26. Johnny Cueto hasn't enjoyed as much success against the Phillies. He's 2-4 on the money line in 6 career starts against them with an ERA of 5.08. Bet Philly.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Packers -3
The Key: Playing against home teams that have a winning record in the preseason when the line is +3 to -3 has produced a 42-17 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. This system has already produced a 4-1 ATS mark this preseason. Expect this extremely profitable system to hold up as the Packers improve to 5-2 in Week 3 of the preseason under coach Mike McCarthy and the Bengals fall to 2-8 in Week 3 of the preseason under Marvin Lewis. Lay the number.

7* NL *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -110
The Key: The Braves are 15-0 in Medlen's last 15 starts, 11-0 in his last 11 starts as a favorite, 7-0 in his last 7 road starts, 8-0 in his last 8 starts vs. the National League East, 7-0 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 6-0 in his last 6 starts on 5 days' rest. Bet the Braves.

6* AL *CA$H COW* on Angels -122
The Key: Weaver was hit hard his last time out, but the chances of it happening again tonight are slim to none. Consider that the Angels are 8-0 in Weaver's last 8 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance and 7-0 in his last 7 road starts. Plus, the Angels are 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Halos.

7* NL West Game of the Month on Dodgers -113
The Key: I'm fading the Giants with Lincecum on the mound. The Giants are 9-22 in Lincecum's last 31 starts and 4-11 in his last 15 road starts. They are 2-12 in his starts when the money line is +125 to -125 this season and 3-12 in his starts following a win this season. San Francisco is even 3-10 in Lincecum's last 13 starts vs. the National League West, 2-9 in his last 11 starts as an underdog, 1-6 in hi last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 0-4 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record and 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs. the Dodgers. Bet LA.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on A's -160
The Key: The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 overall, 0-4 in their last 4 road games and 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. They are even 0-8 in Duensing's last 8 starts when the total is set at 7.0-8.5, 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 0-6 in his last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Athletics are 4-0 in their last 4 overall and 3-0 in McCarthy's last 3 home starts. McCarthy has an ERA of only 1.62 at home while Duensing has an ERA of 5.31 on the road. Bet Oakland.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Eagles +1.5
The Key: Plays against home teams with a line of +3 to -3 that have a winning record in the preseason are an incredible 41-17 ATS the last 5 seasons. That's a 70.7% win rate. It's also worth mentioning that this system is 3-1 ATS already this season. Expect this system to continue to cash tickets as the Eagles will be playing their starters significant minutes tonight while the Patriots will be placing more of an emphasis on evaluating the depth charts. Because the Eagles play their Week 1 opponent - the Browns - next week, they will be using this game as their regular-season tune-up. Teams usually don't play their starters an entire half until the third week of the preseason, but it makes sense for the Eagles to do it here as they won't want to give anything away to Cleveland Friday. Bet Philadelphia.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Steelers -3.5
The Key: Plays on home teams in the preseason that are coming off a road loss and are matched up against a conference opponent are 29-10 ATS the last 10 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 3.4 points and have won by an average of 11.1 points. Lay the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Marlins -124
The Key: Josh Johnson has never lost to the Rockies. He's 2-0 (4-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.26 against them. It's also worth noting that Colorado's Drew Pomeranz is 0-7 this season when the money line is +125 to -125. The Rockies have lost by an average score of 6.1 to 2.9 in this situation. Bet Miami.

7* NFLX Underdog Game of the Year on Rams +1
The Key: The Rams lost last week on the road and the Chiefs won at home, but Kansas City should not be favored on the road this week. We're talking about a team that is just 5-25-1 ATS in its last 31 NFL preseason contests. Plus, the Rams 2-0 SU and ATS in their last 2 preseason games against the Chiefs and 5-1 SU and ATS in their last 6 home preseason games against the Chiefs. Last week's embarrassing loss cannot be sitting well with Jeff Fisher, who was 28-17 SU in the preseason since 2000 entering that game. Fisher is clearly a proponent of winning in the preseason, and I expect his troops to take care of business Saturday.

7* American League Game of the Month on White Sox -143
The Key: The White Sox went down yesterday, but they are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss. They are also a reliable 37-18 in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Chicago has had plenty of success against left-handed starters lately, and I expect that success to continue with KC bringing Bruce Chen (5.56 ERA) to the mound. The White Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter and 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Royals are 1-5 in Chen's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Jake Peavy, a former Cy Young with a 3.04 ERA, is the far better investment. Bet Chicago.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -165
The Key: After getting shut out Thursday, there's no one the Angels would rather hand the ball to than ace Jered Weaver. In fact, they are 8-0 in Weaver's last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. They are also a perfect 7-0 in Weaver's last 7 starts vs. the tough American League East. It's also worth mentioning that the Rays are just 1-10 in Shields' last 11 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. Take LAA.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Vikings -2.5
The Key: As an NFL head coach, Chan Gailey is 0-8 ATS all-time in preseason road games. His teams haven't just lost these games, they've lost them by an average of 13.5 points. Buffalo is expected to focus on its running game tonight, and that plays to Minnesota's defensive strength. Its run defense finished 11th in the NFL last season while its pass defense ranked 26th. With Minnesota's starters expected to play into the second quarter. I expect them to set the tone early and for the backups to feed off the momentum. Lay the number.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Browns +3
The Key: The Browns are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in the preseason versus the Packers the last two years. They won 27-24 in Green Bay as a 3-point dog in 2010 and 27-17 at home as a 2.5-point favorite last year. The Browns clearly put a bigger emphasis on the preseason than Green Bay, which has to be careful because it has been dealt a bad hand in terms of injuries so far this season. Cleveland is expected to give its starters extended minutes tonight instead of waiting until Week 3 because next week's opponent - the Eagles - is its Week 1 foe. Bet the Browns.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5 +111
The Key: I'm going to continue to ride the Braves with Kris Medlen on the mound. They are a perfect 14-0 in his last 14 starts and have won those by an average of 3.2 runs. They have won each of his last 7 starts by at least 2 runs. Bet the Braves on the run line.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -161
The Key: I'm sticking with the Braves today. They have won 25 of their last 35, and I love the chances with Maholm on the mound. He is 7-1 on the money line in his last 8 starts and has allowed 1 run or none in each of those 7 victories. Volquez has had a decent season, but he has been roughed up lately (13.50 ERA last 3 starts). Consider that plays against all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (SAN DIEGO) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) - and provided their starting pitcher (Volquez) gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, are 74-19 the last 5 seasons. This system has produced an 18-6 record already this season. Take Atlanta.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -163
The Key: The Padres can't be trusted with Richard on the hill outside pitcher-friendly Petco. The Padres have lost 10 of his 13 road starts this season, and they are 0-6 in his last 6 road starts versus a team with a winning record. Plus, the Braves have never lost to Richard, who is 0-4 lifetime with an ERA of 7.36 in 4 career starts against them. Also, the Braves 7-0 Hudson

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -115
The Key: The Giants have the advantage at home tonight with Vogelsong on the hill. They are 9-0 in Vogelsong's last 9 starts as a favorite, 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite, 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 7-0 in his last 7 series-opening starts. The Nats have lost 9 of their last 12 in San Francisco and should fall again here as Vogelsong outduels Gonzalez.

6* NFLX *CA$H COW* on Raiders -1
The Key: When the total reached 35.5, I jumped on the Raiders as Dallas is just 15-37 ATS in its last 52 preseason games when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. The Cowboys are the walking wounded at the moment as they are expected to be without at least six projected starters (Miles Austin, Morris Claiborne, Jay Ratliff, Jason Hatcher, Anthony Spencer and center Phil Costa. Dez Bryant is a game-time decision. Because of all of these injuries, I don't expect the Dallas first-teams to see much action at all. Advantage Oakland.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -113
The Key: Washington rallied to win yesterday thanks to two Arizona errors and a wild pitch in the 5th, but I expect its luck to run out here. The Diamondbacks are 14-6 in their last 20 games vs. a left-handed starter and 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Nationals are 5-14 in Detwiler's last 19 starts as a road underdog and 1-11 in his last 12 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The total is high given Detwiler's 2.99 as it reflects Arizona's ability to hit lefties well (4.8 runs/game, 0.264 average against southpaw starters this season). The fact the D-backs are favored against one of the hottest teams in the league and the team with the best overall record tells us the odds makers are expecting them to win. I couldn't agree more with their assessment today. Take Arizona.

6* NFLX *CA$H COW* on Rams +1.5
The Key: Jeff Fisher vs. Chuck Pagano - advantage Fisher. Rams QB depth (Sam Bradford, Kellen Clemens, Austin Davis, Tom Brandstater) vs. Colts QB depth (Andrew Luck, Drew Stanton, Chandler Harnish) - advantage St. Louis. The Rams also have the better overall team depth, especially on defense. 60% of Indy's 90-man roster is new faces so this team has plenty of jelling to do. The Colts will have to jump on the Rams early when Luck is in the game to have a shot because St. Louis' QBs should far outshine Indy's in the second half. Take the Rams.

6* NFLX Bailout on Titans +3
The Key: The Titans are an impressive 17-6 ATS in their last 23 NFL exhibition games in the road underdog role. They went 3-1 in the preseason last year under first year head man Mike Munchak, and that success carried over to the regular season as they posted a 9-7 record after consecutive non-winning campaign. Munchak has placed an emphasis on winning in the preseason again, and it starts tonight. Take the points as the Titans have an excellent chance to win this one outright

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on D-backs -130
The Key: By installing the Nationals, who have the best record in baseball, as this large of an underdog, the books are clearly looking to trap the public. We're not falling for it and here's why. The D-backs are 9-3 in Miley's last 12 home starts, 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Also, keep in mind the Nationals are 3-7 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Braves -103
The Key: I expect the Braves, who are 23-8 in their last 31 overall, to stay hot against a New York club they have defeated 6 straight times. The Braves are 15-1 in Medlen's last 16 starts and 6-0 in his last 6 road starts. The Mets are 1-10 in their last 11 home games, 1-4 in Santana's last 5 starts and 4-9 in his last 13 starts vs. the Braves.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -1.5 +121
The Key: Pittsburgh is 10-0 in Burnett's home starts this season (2.6-run average winning margin in these games), 8-0 in his starts vs. poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season (3.6-run avg winning margin in these games), 10-0 in his starts versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game this season. (3.1-run avg margin or victory in these games) and 9-0 in his starts as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. (3.0-run avg margin of victory in these games). Take the Bucs on the run line as they win by 2-plus behind another outstanding outing from Burnett.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on White Sox -115
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and having had a day off to regroup, expect the White Sox to bring their "A" game tonight. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games following an off day and 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. I also like the fact that the White Sox are 4-1 in Floyd's last 5 starts as a favorite. Oakland's McCarthy hasn't made a start since June 19, and I'm expecting to see some rust. Take the South Siders.

7* NFLX Game of the Week on Jaguars -2
The Key: The Jags are favored for a reason against the defending Super Bowl champs. New York basically just needs to evaluate its depth and get to the preseason while the Jaguars have plenty to prove under a new head coach. The Giants really haven't put much stock in the preseason either as they are just 8-12 SU (7-10-3 ATS) the last 5 years. A win over the reigning champs, even in the preseason, would do a lot for the confidence of Jacksonville. I like its chances as its starters are expected to go deeper than New York's in this one.

7* National League Game of the Year on Reds -155
The Key: The Reds will be extremely motivated and focused after losing all 3 in Milwaukee. They are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and should have no promblem furthering this streak against the Cubs, who are 0-8 in their last 8 games. The Cubs are also 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record and 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. They have struggled against the righty they'll see tonight (Leake). Lastly, Chicago's scheduled starter (Volstad) is 0-12 on the money line in his last 12 starts. We'll take Cincinnati.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Patriots -3
The Key: The Patriots, who are an impressive 8-1-3 ATS in their last 12 preseason contests, have the edge tonight against a Saints team that will be taking the field on short rest. New England has had more time to prepare for the Saints, and that should show on the field tonight.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Angels -130
The Key: The Angels have won 5 of their last 7 in Oakland, and I like their chances here with Greinke on the mound. He's 9-4 with a 3.61 ERA on the season, and he'll be very focused following a rough outing his last time out. Greinke has also had some success against the A's with a 5-1 record and 3.09 ERA in 9 career starts. Greinke is 32-10 on the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Take the Angels.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Reds -140
The Key: The Reds are 3-0 in Latos' last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 1.77. They are also 7-0 in his last 7 starts against NL Central opponents. The Brewers are 0-3 in Wolf's last 3 starts, during which he has posted a 5.40 ERA. They are also 0-6 in his last 6 Wednesday starts and 0-8 in his last 8 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. It should also be mentioned that Cincy is 6-0 in its last 6 games vs. a southpaw starter.

6* MLB Bailout on Angels -133
The Key: I'm a big believer in the Angels. This team is loaded with talent, and it's showing value at this price with C.J. Wilson on the rubber. The Angels are 6-0 in Wilson's last 6 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150, and he is 3-0 on the money line in his last 3 starts in Oakland. He has shut the A's down in those 3 starts, allowing them only 3 runs in 20 innings. The Angels have won 5 of their last 6 in Oakland. Bet LAA.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Reds -101
The Key: The Reds are a bargain at this price considering they have won 22 of their last 27 overall and 9 of their last 10 away from home. They are 22-7 in Johnny Cueto's last 29 starts and 6-1 in his last 7 starts versus the Brew Crew. They have won 6 of their last 8 against Milwaukee, and I expect them to avenge yesterday's loss.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER on Pirates -116
The Key: The Pirates are a steal at this price, especially with Karstens on the hill. They are 3-0 in his last 3 starts (allowed 1 run or none in 2 of those), 3-0 in his home starts (0.43 ERA in those) and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite (1 or no runs allowed in 3 of those). The Pirates have won 6 of their last 7 at home versus Arizona, and I like them here.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -145
The Key: Simply put, I'm riding the hot hand of Jered Weaver here. The Halos' ace is 11-0 on the money line in his last 11 starts with LA winning those by an average of 4.4 runs per game. Weaver hasn't given up more than 2 earned runs in any of his last 7 starts against the A's, and I expect nothing short of another dominant performance tonight.

6* ESPN Monday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Tigers -163
The Key: Verlander is a perfect 12-0 on the money line at home since the start of the 2010 season when pitching against good teams that carry a win percentage of 54-62%. The Tigers have won these games by an average score of 5.3 to 2.0. The Tigers are rolling at home (8 straight home wins), and I expect them to keep rolling behind their ace.

7* NFLX *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona Cardinals +3
The Key: The Saints are being overvalued here. We're talking about a team that has been through a whole heck-of-a-lot this offseason in terms of the bounty scandal. This is a franchise that still has plenty to figure out on the field in terms of personnel and learning systems. With Drew Brees and the first-team offense slated for light work, we'll see mostly journeyman Luke McCown and 2011 practice-squad member Sean Canfield. For the Cards, John Skelton and Kevin Kolb, who are in the midst of a QB battle, are expected to get plenty of snaps. I'll get behind two capable starters against a pair of backups any day. Take the points.

6* ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *CASH COW* on Cardinals -157
The Key: The Brewers are 0-4 in Estrada's last 4 road starts while the Cardinals are 4-0 in Lohse's last 4 home starts. The Brewers are also 0-6 in Estrada's last 6 starts as an underdog and 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Cards are the better team with the better pitcher on the mound and they're at home. Take St. Louis.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5 -104
The Key: The Astros are 0-10 in Bud Norris' last 10 starts. They have lost these by an average of 2.8 runs. The Braves, on the other hand, are 12-0 in Kris Medlen's last 12 starts. They have won these by 3.1 runs on average. With this in mind, and the fact that Atlanta has won 9 of its last 11 while Houston has lost 29 of its last 33, I love our chances of covering the run line with the Braves.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -1.5 -120
The Key: Chris Volstad's clubs are 0-11 in his last 11 starts and have lost these games by an average of 3.6 runs. I don't see anyway he outduels Kershaw here. The LA ace has shut down Chicago each of the last two times he's faced the Cubs. Take LA on the run line.

6* Red Sox -1.5 +104
The Key: The Red Sox get the call on the run line because of how solid Buchholz has been. The Sox have won 7 of his last 8 starts, and he has held opponents to 2 runs or fewer in 6 of those. Those 7 wins have come by an average of 3.1 runs.

6* Nationals -1.5 +132
The Key: I like the Nats on the run line here because of the way Zimmerman is dealing. He has given up 3 earned runs or less in 11 straight starts and has allowed 1 earned run or none in his last 7 starts. That's consistency we can count on. Washington has won his last 4 starts, taking three of those by at least 3 runs. Buehrle has been a solid pitcher for a lot of years, but he clearly already pitched his best baseball.