Sports Picks & Predictions

7* World Series Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -111
The Key: Boston's Jon Lester hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where he has a 4.18 ERA. The Red Sox are just 6-12 in his last 18 road starts. St. Louis hasn't been as strong against left-handed starters this season, but it is 4-0 in its last four home games versus a southpaw starters. Adam Wainwright has been at his best at home where he has a 2.36 ERA. The Cardinals are 6-0 in his last six home starts overall and 4-0 in his last four home starts versus a team with a winning record. Wainwright has a 1.07 ERA in eight career postseason games - four starts - in St. Louis. Look for the Cards to take care of business behind a gem from their ace.

7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Year on Vikings +10
The Key: The Vikings were embarrassed on national TV Monday night, and they'll be out to save face here. They will be lacking no confidence as they go up against a Green Bay squad they defeated 37-34 at home last season. Christian Ponder is back under center, and he'll be very motivated to show the organization that they should not have given up on him so quickly. He completed 16 of 28 passes for 234 yards with 3 TDs and no picks in last season's home win against the Packers. Minnesota was very competitive in its first four games of the season because it was committed to running the football. It has gone away from that in its last two games and has paid the price. You can bet the Vikings have learned their lesson and that they'll look to run the football here against a team they averaged 208.0 rushing yards per game against last season. The Packers are coming off a 31-13 victory over Cleveland, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 14 points. Also, you want play against favorites that check in off a win of 14 points or more if they are up against an opponent that checks in off two straight defeats of 10 points or more. That's because doing so has produced a 26-7 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Teams in this situation have been favored by 9.1 points on average but have won by only 2.5 points on average. Home field has been huge in this rivalry as the home side is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Vikings are 6-0 ATS since the beginning of last season versus poor kickoff coverage teams like Green Bay that give up 24.0 yards or more per return. Take the points.

6* World Series Game 4 *CA$H COW* on Red Sox +104
The Key: I expect a strong outing from Clay Buchholz, who has had extra time to rest his shoulder. He was 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA while pitching on at least six days' rest in the regular season. Buchholz has been brilliant on the road, going 6-0 with a 1.76 ERA in eight road starts this season. The Red Sox are 5-0 in Buchholz's last 5 starts versus NL clubs. Yesterday's 5-4 score is significant as the Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. They are also 4-0 in Buchholz's last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Cardinals are 1-4 in Lynn's last 5 starts versus a team with a winning record and 1-6 in his last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take Boston.

6* Sunday NFL Late Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -1
The Key: Off back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the NFL (49ers and Seahawks), the Cardinals will be ready to take their frustrations out on the struggling Falcons. Atlanta ended a 3-game skid with a win over lowly Tampa Bay last week, but the banged-up Falcons face a much tougher task here as they hit the road for the first time since Sept. 22. They are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road this season and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. With Julio Jones out and Roddy White and Stephen Jackson not at 100 percent, this Atlanta offense is not high-octane enough to overcome a defense that's giving up 26.2 ppg. You want to fade road underdogs or pickems that average 23-27 ppg if they scored 24 points or more in the first half last game and are matched up against a team that gives up 18-23 ppg. Doing so has produced a 4-0 ATS mark the last 3 seasons and a 26-6 ATS since 1983. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Lay the number.

6* NFC *CA$H COW* on Lions -3
The Key: The Cowboys claimed sole possession of first place in the NFC East with last week's 17-3 victory at Philadelphia, but they have been a dead fade following a victory at 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a win. Also, you want to go against road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that held their opponent to 6 points or less last game if they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off a loss of 3 points or less. That's because doing so has produced a 3-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons, an 11-1 ATS record the last 10 seasons and a 23-5 ATS record since 1983. Not much should be read into Dallas' defensive performance against the Eagles as it is 5-22 ATS in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992. It has lost by an average score of 23.9 to 17.1 in this situation. I'll lay the small number with the Lions at home.

6* World Series Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -102
The Key: I expect St. Louis to ride the momentum of its Game 2 victory to a 2-1 series lead. The Cardinals have been nearly unbeatable at home when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. They are 43-12 in their last 55 home games versus a right-handed starter, including 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus AL right-handed starters. The Cards will have an excellent opportunity to extend these runs against Peavy, who has a 5.56 ERA on the road and a 7.98 ERA over his last three starts. Peavy has struggled against St. Louis, going 3-6 with a 4.28 ERA in 11 starts. Boston isn't nearly as familiar with Joe Kelly's stuff. The St. Louis right-hander has an ERA of 2.53 on the season. That's nearly two runs lower than Peavy's 4.40 mark. The Cardinals are 7-1 in Kelly's last 8 home starts, including 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 11-1 in their last 12 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 6-1 in their last 7 World Series home games. Take St. Louis.

7* C-USA Game of the Year on So. Miss +11.5
The Key: So. Miss is 0-6, but it has played four road games to this point against the likes of Nebraska, Arkansas, Boise State and East Carolina. I believe it has an excellent opportunity to break into the win column here. North Texas won at Louisiana Tech last week, but that's not enough for this team to be trusted laying double-digits on the road. The Mean Green are just 1-7 in their last 8 and 3-15 in their last 18 road games. The North Texas defense has been pretty good the last two weeks, but consider that the Mean Green are 0-7 ATS in road games after holding opponents to 17 points or less in two straight games since they were reinstated to Division 1-A in 1995. They have lost by an average score of 41.0 to 15.9 in this situation. So. Miss was held to 3.64 yards per play last week, but it is 10-2 ATS in home games after being held to 3.75 yards or less per play since 1992. It has won by an average score of 31.2 to 16.3 in this situation. Take the points.

7* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Air Force +20
The Key: Notre Dame hasn't played a true road game since Sept. 14, and it has been far from dominant away from home. The Fighting Irish were favored by 17 at Purdue in their most recent road game, and they only walked away with a 31-24 victory. In fact, they haven't won by more than 17 points in any of their last eight true road contests. I don't like Notre Dame's chances of covering this hefty number on the road against an Air Force squad that has had since Oct. 10 to prepare. You want to take underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games if they're matched up against an opponent that has covered the number in 2 of its last 3 games. That's because teams fitting this situation are 207-125 (62.3%) ATS since 1992. Notre Dame is consistently overvalued. It is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall and 14-34 ATS after having won 4 out of its last 5 games since 1992. The Irish are also only 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 versus teams with a losing record. Take the points.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia +10
The Key: Georgia Tech was our ACC Game of the Week last week. Fueled by three consecutive defeats, it rolled Syracuse 56-0. We'll fade the Yellow Jackets this week, however. First of all, they are 0-6 ATS dating back to 2011 when checking into a game off a home win over a conference opponent. They have lost by an average score of 34.0 to 23.6 in this situation. I expect Virginia to be extremely motivated here after it blew a 22-0 lead against Duke last week. Last season's 56-20 loss at Georgia Tech will only add fuel to the fire. The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are also 9-1 in their last 10 home games against Georgia Tech. Lastly, you want to fade teams like Georgia Tech that held their last opponent to 225 total yards or less if they have a +/- 0.6 yards per play differential and are matched up against a team that is outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 2-0 ATS record this season and a 15-1 ATS mark the last 5 seasons.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on BYU -6.5
The Key: I don't trust inexperienced Boise State backup QB Grant Hedrick on the road against against a stout BYU defense that is giving up just 17.7 ppg at home. The Cougars have shown that they will rise to the occasion against stiff competition. They are 7-0 ATS the last three seasons when matched up against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). They have won these games by an average score of 29.3 to 18.0. BYU is also 6-0 ATS the last three seasons when checking into a game after having won 5 or 6 out of its last 7 games. It is 7-0 ATS the last three seasons after averaging 475 or more total yards over their last 3 games. And, it is 8-0 ATS the last three seasons after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers. Lay the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Buccaneers +7
The Key: Tampa Bay is 0-6, but it's not like it has been getting pummeled. Just two of its losses have come by double digits with three coming by three points or less. And it's not like the Bucs have been playing a bunch of cupcakes. They have played New Orleans, the New York Jets and New England Patriots. Carolina has benefited from a much lighter schedule. Since opening against Seattle, it has played Buffalo, the New York Giants, Arizona, Minnesota and St. Louis - all losing teams. Carolina has struggled on the road where it is just 9-22 in its last 31. It has also struggled against Tampa Bay, going 2-4 in the last 6 meetings, including 0-2 last year. It is also worth noting that Tampa Bay has won or lost by 7 points or less in 4 of its last 5 home games versus the Panthers. Tampa Bay stifled Carolina's running attack last season, holding the Panthers to only 10 yards on the ground in the home meeting. The Bucs still boast a nasty run defense, one that ranks 5th in the league. I believe the run defense will be the key to a cover tonight.

6* World Series Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -118
The Key: Wacha has been sensational over his last four starts, but I have to go with the experience of Lackey here. Lackey has been terrific all season at home where he's 7-3 with a 2.71 ERA. The Red Sox are 6-1 in his last 7 home starts. In addition, he's pitched in the World Series before, earning a 4-1 victory in Game 7 against San Francisco as a rookie in 2002 while pitching for the Angels. That performance shows you the stuff Lackey is made of. We saw a dominant performance from him in the ALCS, outdueling Verlander, and I expect another one here. Wacha hasn't been scared of the moment thus far, but the stakes have been raised here. This is the biggest game of his life, in arguably the most legendary ballpark on the planet against the best hitting team he's seen. I believe he'll finally succumb to the pressure. The Red Sox are 5-0 in Lackey's last 5 starts versus a team with a winning record. They are 9-0 in their last 9 World Series games and 5-0 in their last 5 World Series home games. Take Boston.

6* NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Middle Tennessee State +8
The Key: MTSU has lost three in a row and was smoked at North Texas last time out, but I expect a much stronger performance from the Blue Raiders at home tonight. The Blue Raiders are 2-1 at home this season with the loss coming by just 7 points against a very good East Carolina squad. They covered as an 8-point dog in that game. While Marshall is unbeaten at home, it is 1-2 on the road with the win coming by just 1-point against a 2-5 Florida Atlantic squad. By my count, the Thundering Herd are just 6-19 in their last 25 on the road, and they are 10-23 ATS as a road favorite since 1992. It is also worth noting that they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Marshall has played clean football the last two weeks, committing just 1 turnover in each game. One would think that's a good sign, but it's not. It is 0-9 ATS under coach Holliday after 2 consecutive games of committing 1 or less turnovers. The Herd have lost by an average score of 34.3 to 27.6 in this situation. Lastly, the Blue Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week. Take the points.

7* World Series Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -118
The Key: Boston has the edge in Game 1 with southpaw Jon Lester on the bump. He is 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 15 home starts this season. He provides problems for a St. Louis lineup that is batting just .246 and scoring only 3.9 runs per game off left-handed starters this season. The Cardinals are 0-5 in their last 5 games versus AL southpaw starters. Adam Wainwright hasn't been quite as sharp on the road where he has a 3.31 ERA. Boston is batting .274 and scoring 5.3 runs per game off right-handed starters this season. The Cardinals are 0-4 in Wainwright's last 4 road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 World Series games and 4-0 in their last 4 World Series home games. The Cardinals are 2-6 in their last 8 playoff road games and 2-5 in their last 7 World Series road games. Take Boston.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator on Arkansas State +3
The Key: Arkansas State blasted Louisiana-Lafayette 50-27 on the road last season, but road wins have been a rarity in this series. That bodes well for the Red Wolves this evening. The home team is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings. Also, Arkansas State is 5-1 in its last six home games against the Ragin' Cajuns with the lone loss coming by just three points. Not only are the Red Wolves at home where they are on a 4-1-1 ATS run, but they are coming off a bye and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. The Red Wolves are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Giants -3
The Key: The Giants are off to a miserable 0-6 start, but only two of the losses have come at home. They play four of their next five at home so they believe they can get back on track. They have had 10 days of preparation time because they played the Thursday game last week. The extra time off should serve them well both physically and mentally as such a rough start can be very draining. The Vikings are off to a rough start as well, and I believe they'll struggle offensively tonight with Josh Freeman expected to get the start. He hasn't had very long to learn a new system and was playing very poorly in Tampa Bay. The New York defense has struggled, but the Minnesota stop unit has been even worse. It ranks dead last in the NFL with 419.6 yards allowed per game. The Vikings have especially struggled against the pass, which bodes well for Eli Manning and his group of talented receivers. Interceptions have been an issue for the two-time Super Bowl MVP, but it's only a matter of time before he finds his groove, and I believe it's tonight against a poor defense. The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Also, the Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday Night Football contests. Lay the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Colts +7
The Key: While I consider the 6-0 Broncos to be a legit Super Bowl contender, I can also acknowledge the fact they are yet to play an opponent of the caliber of the Colts. None of Denver's wins have come against teams that currently have a winning record. Indianapolis, on the other hand, has impressive wins over the 49ers and Seahawks. I'm confident we'll see a strong effort from the Colts here as they bounce back from their worst performance of the season. Indy is 6-0 SU and ATS since the beginning of last season when it checks into a game following a defeat. It has won by an average score of 22.8 to 15.5 in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Colts are 7-0 SU and ATS since the start of last season in home games that come after the first month of the season. They have won these contests by an average score of 25.6 to 20.0. Denver has the worst pass defense in the NFL. It is giving up 337.7 yards per game. That bodes well for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Denver has moved the ball with ease to this point, but that figures to change here as it goes up against the NFL's 5th-ranked pass defense. The Colts also rank 4th in scoring defense, holding opponents to 16.3 points per game. Take the points.

7* NFL Public Burial Game of the Month on Texans +7
The Key: The public is all over the 6-0 Chiefs, but I'm not ready to drink the Kansas City Kool-Aid. The Chiefs' wins have come against the Jaguars, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Titans and Raiders. None of these teams have a winning record, and they are a combined 11-25 on the season. The Texans have lost four in a row since winning their first two, but three of their losses (Baltimore, San Francisco, Seattle) have come against who I would consider to be quality opponents. And, Houston really should have defeated the Seahawks, who is arguably the best team in the NFL. Turnovers have been an issue for the Texans, but Matt Schaub, who has been the worst offender, isn't expected to play. Regardless if it's T.J. Yates or Case Keenum, the Texans will look to pound the football against Kansas City's 23rd-ranked run defense. Houston has the 6th-best rushing attack in the league. The Chiefs haven't been very impressive offensively, ranking 25th in total offense with 326.3 yards per game. Yards will be tough to come by against a Houston stop unit that leads the league with 252.8 yards per game allowed. This line has everything to do with public perception, and I'm confident the Texans are better than they have shown and the Chiefs aren't as good as their record looks. You want to fade teams that are coming off a victory of 14 points or more if they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off two consecutive defeats of 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 31-10 ATS result the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 14-4 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* AFC East Game of the Week on Jets +3.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from the Patriots following last week's thrilling comeback win against the Saints. The Jets suffered a letdown of their own last week following a big win over the Falcons, but they'll have no trouble getting up for this one. The Jets will be out to end a five-game losing streak to the Patriots. Two of the last three games between these two division rivals have been decided by three points. The Jets played New England to a three-point game in the season's first matchup despite four turnovers because their defense held Tom Brady and company to just 232 total yards. Geno Smith is more polished and confident than he was back in Week 2, and the Patriots are in worse shape defensively following the losses of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo. The defense is also expected to be without Tommy Kelly and Aqib Talib. New England's offense is also yet to really get going, and it looks like Brady won't have Danny Amendola this week. The Jets are 16-4 ATS in home games following a home loss since 1992. They have won by an average score of 22.8 to 15.6 in this situation. Take the points.

6* NFL Situational Annihilator on Jaguars +9.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for the Chargers. They're feeling good about themselves following a big win over the Colts, but now they have to travel clear across the country on a short week to face a Jacksonville team that gained confidence with a good showing in Denver. We saw how unmotivated the Broncos were to play Jacksonville last week, and I expect a lethargic performance from San Diego here as well. The Chargers have lost their last two on the road to the Titans and Raiders - teams not considered to be playoff contenders. San Diego does have one road win this season, but that came by only three points in Philadelphia so we are getting good line value with the Jaguars catching over a touchdown. The Chargers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. You also want to take underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 points or less per game after a game where they allowed 35 points or more. Doing so has produced a 55-26 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Lastly, Jacksonville is 10-2 ATS all-time after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games. This situation was live last week, and the Jags got the easy cover.

6* Pac-12 Bailout on Cal +10.5
The Key: This is a good spot for Cal as it goes up against an Oregon State squad that will be looking ahead to next week's matchup with Stanford. Because Oregon State put a 62-14 beating on the Golden Bears last season, it will not give them its full attention. The memory of that beating, on the other hand, will be all the motivation Cal needs. You want to go against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points if they outgain their opponents by an average of 75.0 yards per game and have outgained their last two opponents by 175 yards or more. That's because doing so has produced a 42-15 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Beavers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win of more than 20 points. The Golden Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Lastly, the home team is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings.

6* Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Arizona -4
The Key: You want to fade road underdogs off a home win against a conference opponent when they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off two consecutive losses to conference foes while allowing 31 points or more in each. Doing so has resulted in a 26-5 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Utah upset Stanford last week, but you want to go against teams in Weeks 5-9 that are off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 points or more. That's because doing so has produced a 28-5 ATS record the last five seasons. Lay the number.

6* ALCS Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -116
The Key: Boston won Game 2 of this series despite a poor performance from Buchholz. That performance cannot be sitting well with the Red Sox ace, and I expect him to bounce back strong this evening. Scherzer dealt a gem in Game 2, but it wasn't enough as Boston was able to rally late. I don't expect Scherzer to be quite as good this time around. He's fresh in Boston's mind and has a 6.20 career ERA against the Red Sox. The Sox are 15-3 in Buchholz's starts this season. They are 24-5 since the beginning of last season in his starts as a favorite of -110 or higher. Boston is 6-1 in Buchholz's last 7 starts versus the Tigers, including 4-0 in his last 4 at Fenway. The Tigers are 0-3 in Scherzer's last 3 starts at Fenway. The Red Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 home games versus the Tigers. Bet Boston.

6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Illinois +12.5
The Key: Wisconsin put its bye week to good use and smoked a Northwestern team that was clearly not over its loss to Ohio State. I expect Illinois to put its bye to good use Saturday. The Badgers may have rolled the Wildcats, but they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 20 points. Wisconsin boasts one of the top running attacks in the country, but you want to fade favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that average 230.0 rushing yards per game or more if they averaged 5.5 yards per rush or more last game and are matched up against a team like Illinois that allows 190.0-230.0 rushing yards per game. Doing so has produced a 34-11 ATS mark since 1992. This system is 10-1 ATS the last three seasons. Take the points.

6* ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia -2
The Key: This is a game the Cavaliers have had circled. They were crushed 42-17 at Duke last season and will be out for some serious revenge as a result. The home team has had the edge of late, going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings. Virginia has won eight of its last 10 at home versus Duke, which hasn't fared well on the road. The Blue Devils are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games played on a grass field. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last six road games in the second half of their schedule. Lay the points.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Georgia Tech -8
The Key: Motivated by three consecutive defeats, I expect Georgia Tech to roll Saturday. It doesn't bode well for Syracuse that it is coming off a big upset win at NC State. That's because the Orange are 0-8 ATS since 1992 following an upset win of 14 points or more. They have lost by an average score of 39.5 to 15.0 in this situation. In addition, the numbers say to fade any team in Weeks 5-9 that checks in off a win over a conference foe as an underdog of 6.0 points or more. Doing so has produced a 60-30 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Orange are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following an upset victory over a conference opponent. Lay the points.

6* SEC Game of the Week on Florida -3
The Key: Mizzou is prime for a letdown following last week's big win over Georgia, and to make matters worse it won't have starting QB James Franklin under center. That means Florida's vaunted defense will get to tee off on the inexperienced Maty Mauk. The Tigers are 3-13 ATS in home games off a win against a conference foe under coach Pinkel. They fall to 1-8 ATS in this situation if the win was by 10 points or more. Lay the points.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on West Virginia +6.5
The Key: This is a highly motivated spot for West Virginia. The Mountaineers were embarrassed 73-42 at Baylor in their last game. They gave up 864 yards in the contest. As if that defeat doesn't provide enough motivation, the Mountaineers will also draw from last season's 49-14 loss at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 6-0, but they have played a very soft schedule to this point. Keep in mind that West Virginia upset Oklahoma State and gave Oklahoma all it wanted. I think Texas Tech won't be able to help but look ahead to next week's revenge game at Oklahoma. The Sooners blasted the Red Raiders 41-20 last season. It is also to West Virginia's benefit that it has had an extra week to prepare. The Mountaineers were outgained on the ground by 350 yards by Baylor, but they are a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1992 after being outrushed by 200 yards or more. You also want to take any team that has allowed an average of 525.0 yards or more in its last three games if it is an average offensive team that averages 4.8-5.6 yards per play and is matched up against a good defensive team that allows 4.2-4.8 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 25-5 ATS result since 1992. This system is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NLCS *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals +1.5 -150
The Key: The Cardinals are showing value catching runs at this price. They are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home underdog and 12-0 this season in home games following a day off. The Dodgers are 0-7 in their last 7 League Championship road games. They are also 0-4 in Kershaw's last 4 starts versus the Cardinals. He was hit hard in two of these starts and got no run support in the other two. Wacha is 3-0 with an 0.42 ERA in his last three starts and outdueled Kershaw in Game 2. The Cardinals squandered a 3-1 series lead last fall against the Giants, and they do not want to see this thing reach a Game 7. I expect them to be very focused and hungry tonight.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights (ESPN) on Central Florida +13
The Key: UCF is being undervalued by oddsmakers. The Knights went on the road and defeated Penn State. They also played South Carolina to a three-point game. This is clearly a team to be reckoned with. One of the reasons oddsmakers have overvalued Louisville is because of the one like opponent these two have played. UCF defeated Florida International 38-0 while Louisville beat FIU 72-0. What must be mentioned here is that FIU was UCFs first road game of the season clear back in Week 2, and the final score could have been worse as the Knights led 24-0 at the half. Louisville got the Golden Panthers at home in its fourth game and never called off the dogs, looking to boost Bridgewater's Heisman candidacy and impress pollsters. I'm here to tell you, UCF has what it takes to give the Cardinals a game. The Knights are 14-4 ATS all-time under coach O'Leary when they enter a contest with four wins in their last five games. Louisville is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Strong after outrushing an opponent by 125 or more yards in its last game. Take the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals +7
The Key: In case Arizona's 32-20 loss at San Francisco doesn't provide enough motivation, a 58-0 loss the last time it faced the Seahawks certainly will. The Cardinals have been very resilient of late. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Seahawks haven't been the same team on the road where they struggled with Carolina and Houston and lost to Indianapolis. Arizona, on the other hand, has been at its best at home where it defeated a good Detroit team and clobbered Carolina 22-6. Home field has been big in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Arizona. Teams headed up by coach Arians are 8-0 ATS all-time at home, winning by an average score of 24.0 to 17.4. Take the points.

6* ALCS Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Tigers -110
The Key: Boston's Lester hasn't been nearly as good on the road, where he has a 4.21 ERA. The Red Sox are 3-12 in his last 15 road starts versus AL opponents, including 0-4 in his last 4. Lester doesn't have very good numbers against Detroit (4.24 ERA), and he gave up 5 earned runs in 5 2-3 innings in his lone start at Detroit this season. Detroit has hit lefties well all season and is 7-0 in its last 7 games versus a left-handed starter and 5-0 in its last 5 home games versus a left-handed starter. Detroit's Sanchez has a 3.04 ERA at home, and he baffled the Red Sox in Game 1, throwing six no-hit innings. He's baffled the mighty AL East all together as the Tigers are now 6-0 in his last six starts versus AL East opponents. Sanchez has the kind of stuff that's really tough to hit when you're not familiar with it. The Red Sox have seen him once this while the Tigers have seen Lester three times this season and five times the last two seasons. Take Detroit.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator (ESPN) on North Carolina +9.5
The Key: North Carolina will be hungry when it takes the field Thursday evening. The Tar Heels have lost their last three games and are 0-2 in ACC play. Keep in mind that their two ACC defeats (Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech) came on the road, and North Carolina has been a much better home team. In fact, the Tar Heels have won or lost by 7 points or less in 40 of their last 45 home games. UNC defeated Miami last season to improve to 4-2 in the last six meetings. It has also won three of its last four home games against the Hurricanes. The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take the points.

6* NLCS Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -166
The Key: It's win or go home for the Dodgers, and I like them to stay alive behind a strong performance from Greinke. The Dodgers are 12-2 this season in his home starts. They are 10-1 in his last 11 starts when working on regular rest (4 days). They are also 9-1 the last 10 times he's gotten the ball following a team loss and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Greinke hasn't allowed more than 4 hits in any of his last four starts while not allowing a single home run during this stretch. Kelly has given up 5 hits or more in each of his last three starts. The Cards lost Kelly's only road start against the Dodgers while Greinke's clubs are 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus St. Louis.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator (ESPN2) on UL Lafayette +5
The Key: ULL is averaging 459.2 yards per game, and it averaged 7.53 yards per play in its last contest. Both numbers are extremely significant considering road underdogs that average 450 yards or more per game and gained an average of 7.25 yards or more per play last game are 23-3 ATS the last three seasons. The Ragin' Cajuns outgained WKU 582-382 in last year's 31-27 win, and the margin would have been bigger had it not been for four turnovers. Turnovers haven't been much of an issue for ULL this season, and they have committed only one in each of their last four games. The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, have 18 giveaways on the season and have committed at least two turnovers in five games. ULL is 6-0 ATS under coach Hudspeth in road games against teams with a winning record. It is also 7-0 ATS under Hudspeth after gaining 325 or more passing yards in its last game and 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards per game. Take the points.

7* ALCS Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -156
The Key: The Tigers are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus Boston, and I expect their home dominance over the Red Sox to continue with Verlander on the mound. The big right-hander has been unbelievable down the stretch. He hasn't given up a single run in his last four starts. The Tigers are 3-0 in his last three home starts against the Red Sox, and he didn't allow a run in two of those. Detroit is also 15-1 all-time in Verlander's home starts in the second half of the season versus teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 runs or more per game. The Tigers have won by an average score of 6.6 to 2.4 in this situation. Boston's Lackey is struggling. He's given up at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts. He's struggled all season on the road where he is 4-10 with a 4.48 ERA in 16 starts. The Red Sox are 1-5 in his last six road starts. His clubs are also 0-4 in his last four starts against the Tigers. Take Detroit.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Chargers +2.5
The Key: The Chargers are coming off a disappointing performance at Oakland, committing five turnovers in a 27-17 loss. However, they are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games following defeat, winning these by 8.0 points on average. Also, you want to fade road teams that scored 30 points or more in their previous game when they're up against a team that was held to 3 points or less in the first half of its last game. Doing so has produced an 84-43 ATS record the last 10 seasons. It is worth noting that this system is 4-1 ATS this season. San Diego has been terrific at home for years, going 41-17 in home regular-season games dating back to the 2006-07 season. Also, the underdog is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams. Riding high off a big win over Seattle and with Denver on deck, this is a sandwich game for the Colts. Take San Diego.

6* NLCS Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Dodgers +1.5 -155
The Key: Each of the Dodgers' last six defeats have come by a single run, and three of St. Louis' last four wins have come by a single run. With this in mind, I believe the Dodgers +1.5 is the strongest play for Game 3. Wainwright has been sensational down the stretch. The Cardinals have won his last seven starts, but keep in mind that only one of those came on the road. Wainwright hasn't been quite as good on the road (3.36 ERA) this season, and the Cardinals have lost four of his last seven road starts. The Cards are also 1-4 in Wainwright's last five starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, 6-15 in their last 21 road games versus a team with a winning record, 1-4 in their last five playoff road games, 6-13 in their last 19 League Championship road games and 3-7 in their last 10 road games versus a left-handed starter. LA Southpaw Ryu has been at his best at home where he has a 2.61 ERA. The Dodgers are 11-4 in his last 15 home starts, 6-1 in his last seven starts as an underdog, 5-0 in his last five starts versus the National League Central and 4-0 in his last four home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 playoff home games. Take LA on the run line.

7* ALCS *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -110
The Key: Scherzer will likely end up with the AL Cy Young, but there's a good chance he wouldn't have had Buchholz not missed a chunk of the season. Both pitchers have spectacular numbers on the season, but Buchholz has the better track record in the team matchup. He has a 3.76 ERA in eight starts against the Tigers. The Red Sox are 5-1 in his last six starts against them, including 3-0 in his last three at home. He has held the Tigers to three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts against them. Scherzer has a 7.02 ERA in eight starts versus the Red Sox. His clubs have lost five of those starts, and he's 0-2 in his last two at Fenway. He's given up five earned runs or more in half of his starts against Boston. The Red Sox fell in Game 1, but they are 5-0 the last five times Buchholz has received the ball following a team loss. They are also 4-0 in their last four when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game and 6-0 in Buchholz's last six starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Take Boston.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Texans -7
The Key: The season has not gone as planned thus far for a Houston team with Super Bowl aspirations, but I believe we'll see a championship-caliber performance from the Texans here. They've lost three in a row with their most recent defeat being a brutal 34-3 loss at San Francisco, and they'll be extremely motivated as a result. Houston is the top defensive team in the league, allowing only 260.2 yards per game. It also ranks No. 1 in pass defense, which is significant because the Rams rely heavily on the passing game. The Houston stop unit has done its job, and the offense has been solid as well, ranking 7th with 390.8 ypg. Unfortunately, turnovers have been an issue. QB Matt Schaub knows he has to play better, and I fully expect him to do so against a St. Louis defense that ranks 23rd in the league with 382.4 ypg allowed. Plus, the Rams have really struggled against the run, ranking 29th with 126 ypg allowed. This means Arian Foster could be poised for a huge game. The Rams are on a 1-12 ATS slide in road games versus excellent offensive teams that average 375 yards or more per game. They are also on a 0-7 ATS skid in road games versus dominant ball control teams that average 32+ minutes of possession time and 21+ first downs per game. The Rams have lost these seven games by an average score of 27.3 to 8.9. Lastly, you want to play against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game when they're up against an opponent that was held to 3 points or less in the first half last game. Doing so has produced an 84-42 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is already 4-0 ATS this season. Take Houston.

6* NFC *CA$H COW* on Buccaneers +2
The Key: Motivated by an 0-4 start where three of the losses came by three points or less, and having had a bye week to prepare, Tampa Bay is in great position to break into the win column. All four of Tampa Bay's losses have come to winning teams (Jets, Saints, Patriots, Cardinals). The Bucs played the 5-0 Saints to a two-point game at home so there's no doubt they have what it takes to beat the Eagles. Philly's two wins have come against the struggling Redskins and Giants, who are a combined 1-8. In its two games against winning teams (Chiefs and Broncos), it was smoked by double digits in each. Mike Glennon will be making his second career start, but I'm expecting a solid performance against a defense that ranks 31st in the league with 434 ypg allowed. The Eagles have gone 19 games without recording back-to-back wins. They are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a losing home record and 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Take Tampa Bay.

6* AFC *CA$H COW* on Steelers +3
The Key: This is a letdown spot for the Jets, who are coming off a big Monday night win in Atlanta and have had only five days to prepare for a Pittsburgh squad that's coming off a bye week. There's still a lot of games left to be played, and this proud Pittsburgh franchise isn't about to pack it in. The Steelers have remained sound defensively, ranking 10th in the league with 321.8 ypg allowed. They are fifth against the pass and should have plenty of success against New York rookie QB Geno Smith. The Steelers have terrorized rookie signal callers under DC Dick LeBeau, going 16-2 against teams starting rookie QBs during his watch. The Steelers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games versus a team with a winning home record while the Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall versus losing teams. Road teams when the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, after the first month of the season, are 64-31 ATS the last 10 seasons. Also, road teams when the line is +3 to -3 after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 26-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Take Pittsburgh.

6* MLB Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -138
The Key: Sanchez was the AL ERA leader, but I don't trust him as much as Lester here. The Tigers are 0-3 in his last three starts, a stretch where he has a 5.65 ERA. He gave up 6 runs in 4 1-3 innings in his ALDS start. Sanchez's clubs are just 2-11 in his starts in the second half of the season versus good teams with a win percentage of 54-62% over the last two seasons. Lester easily won his ALDS start, while giving up just 2 runs in 7 2-3 innings. He's held opponents to 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. Lester has been lights out at home where he has a 3.03 ERA. The Red Sox are 12-2 in his home starts this season, including 4-0 in his last 4. The Sox are also 3-0 in his last three starts against the Tigers. He gave up just 1 run in 7 innings while striking out 9 and walking nine in his lone home start against the Tigers this season. The Red Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 and 36-15 in their last 51 home games versus Detroit. Bet Boston.

6* Saturday Night National TV Annihilator (ESPNU) on Georgia Tech +7
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats to Virginia Tech and Miami, and further fueled by last season's 41-17 home loss to BYU, Georgia Tech will be all business when it takes the field Saturday evening. BYU had success slowing down Georgia Tech's running game in last season's meeting, but it returns just four starters from that defensive unit and is yet to be tested on the ground the way it will here. The Cougars allowed over 5.0 yards per carry last week, and I expect them to be even more exposed by a team that's averaging 300.0 rushing yards per game. Both teams put a big emphasis on running the football. That keeps the clock moving and makes these 7 points even more valuable. The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss while the Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win. The Yellow Jackets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 versus Independents while the Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus the ACC. The Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and 6-0 ATS since the beginning of last season after playing their last game on the road. They have won by an average score of 41.5 to 22.5 in these six instances. BYU is only 4-13 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games since 1992. Take the points.

6* C-USA Game of the Week on Texas-San Antonio -1.5
The Key: As if back-to-back double-digit losses to Houston and Marshall don't provide enough motivation, Texas-San Antonio lost 34-14 to Rice last season. That loss assures us the Roadrunners will be out for some serious revenge. Rice pulled off an upset overtime win at Tulsa last week, and that was a big revenge spot because it lost 28-24 at Tulsa last season. That big win sets the Owls up for a letdown here. The Roadrunners have been a terrific investment at 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 20 points. It's also worth noting that the Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a losing home record. Lay the number.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Purdue +14.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are heading out on the road for the first time this season after enjoying the comfort of their home field for five games. Purdue will benefit from having had a bye week to prepare and should be very focused after a disappointing 55-24 home loss to Northern Illinois in its last game. The Cornhuskers are just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a losing record. The Boilermakers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home. Nebraska put a hurting on Illinois last week, but it is just 15-33 ATS in road games off a home win by 17 points or more since 1992. Also, you want to take underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games when they're up against an opponent that has covered the spread in two out of its last 3 games. Doing so has produced a 206-121 (63%) ATS record since 1992. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Lastly, Nebraska is 5-15 ATS after covering the spread in 2 of its last 3 games under coach Pelini. Take the points.

6* NLCS *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -122
The Key: I like the Dodgers in Game 1 with Greinke on the hill. The former AL Cy Young has been dialed in for months, and he has a strong track record against the Cardinals. He has allowed two earned runs or less in 13 consecutive starts. The Dodgers are 12-0 this season in Greinke's starts versus poor power teams that average 0.9 home runs or fewer per game. These teams have been held to 1.6 runs on average in these games. Greinke is 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Cardinals with the last two wins in St. Louis. He has given up a total of three runs in 19 1-3 innings in these starts. He is 8-2 in his last 10 starts versus the Cards, holding them to two earned runs or less in eight of these. The Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. Take the Dodgers.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Cincinnati -20.5
The Key: Motivated by last week's ugly upset loss at South Florida, the Bearcats will not spare the lowly Owls this evening. Cincinnati went on the road and handed Temple a 24-point beating while outgaining the Owls 472-267 in last season's meeting, and this beating has the potential to be even worse. Temple ranks 122nd in the nation in total defense with 518.0 yards allowed per game. Offensively, it ranks 118th in scoring (15.8 ppg) and 105th in total yards (342.4 ypg). The Bearcats have been lights out defensively, ranking fourth in the land with 251.0 ypg allowed. They average 453.8 yards and 31.8 points per game, and those numbers jump to 547.0 and 54.0 when playing at home. The Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Owls are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning record. Lay the points.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Air Force +4
The Key: Air Force has lost five in a row, but three of those were on the road and the two home losses came against quality Utah State and Wyoming teams. As if a 5-game skid isn't enough motivation, the Falcons will also draw from a 3-game losing streak to San Diego State. Last year's 28-9 beating at SDSU assures us Air Force will be very hungry. Four turnovers killed the Falcons in last season's meeting as they outgained the Aztecs 393-268 with 320 of those yards coming on the ground. SDSU has struggled this season against good running teams. It lost at home to an Eastern Illinois squad that racked up 172 rushing yards. It was also smoked by Ohio State (263 rushing yards) and was fortunate to beat a Nevada team that gained 177 yards on the ground last week. The Aztecs needed OT to outlast Nevada, which outgained them and had seven more minutes of possession time. That was a home game for SDSU. Air Force played Nevada to a three-point game on the road Sept. 28 and really should have won leading by 12 in the fourth quarter. What happened against this common opponent and the margin by which Air Force outgained the Aztecs in last season's matchup shows these teams are more evenly matched than what this line is saying. I don't see SDSU having an answer for Air Force's running game, and that will be the difference. Lastly, the Aztecs are 1-8 ATS all-time after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game under coach Rocky Long. They have lost by an average score of 26.0 to 23.8 in this spot. Take the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Giants +9
The Key: The Bears are getting too much respect from odds makers here. They have lost their last two games by eight points and have only one win by more than three points this season. The Giants aren't as bad as their record looks. They won nine games last season. They have been hurt by turnovers. The Bears are one of the best in the business at forcing turnovers, but I expect a conservative game plan from New York knowing that. Plus, Chicago has forced at least three turnovers in four of its games and has come away with only one win of more than three points. Eli Manning is a much better player than he's showed thus far, and it's only a matter of time before he settles in. Any NFL team would take him over Jay Cutler. You want to fade teams like Chicago that are coming off one or more consecutive losses against the spread that have a winning percentage of 51-60% and are matched up against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse. Doing so has produced a 67-33 ATS record since 1983. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus NFC foes. It is also worth noting that the road team has dominated this series. The road team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings with the Giants going 4-0 SU and ATS in Chicago during this span. Take the points.

6* ALDS *CA$H COW* on Tigers -106
The Key: I like the experience of Verlander in this winner-take-all Game 5. The big right-hander is on top of his game. He hasn't allowed a single run in his last three starts - all on the road - while striking out 33 and walking just five in 19 innings. Plus, he's had a ton of success against the A's. The Tigers are 6-2 in his last eight starts against them, and he's held them to one run or none in seven of these starts. The Tigers are 4-1 in his last five starts in Oakland, and he's given up just two runs in 37 innings in these starts. Verlander is riding a 22-inning postseason scoreless streak against the A's. Gray matched Verlander pitch-for-pitch in Game 2, but now the stakes are raised. Verlander has been there and done that on this stage and won't feel as much pressure as the rookie. Oakland is 1-11 in its last 12 tries when trying to close out a playoff series. It is also 0-5 in its last five Game 5s in the ALDS. The Tigers, on the hand, are 4-0 in their last four Game 5s. Take Detroit.

7* NLDS *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -149
The Key: I love the experience of Adam Wainwright in this big spot. The Cardinals are 6-0 in his last six starts, twice beating the Pirates during this stretch with dominant performances. The Cards are 3-0 in Wainwright's home starts against Pittsburgh this season, and he's given up only one run on five hits in 14 innings while striking out 17 and walking two over his last two. Gerrit Cole has pitched well down the stretch and beat the Cardinals in Game 2, but that was his first start against them. Now he's fresh in their minds, and I expect things to go differently as he faces a lineup that is batting .274 and scoring 5.1 runs per game off right-handed starters a second time. The Cards are 24-9 in home games this season versus NL starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.50 or better. St. Louis is also 33-12 in home games in the second half of this season and 51-22 in home games the last three seasons after having lost two of their last three games. Besides Game 1, the St. Louis bats haven't made much noise. However, the numbers suggest a breakout offensive performance is coming. The Cardinals are 14-1 in home games the last two seasons following a five-game stretch with an on-base percentage of .285 or worse. They have won by an average score of 6.6 to 2.6 in this situation. Take St. Louis.

7* ALDS Game of the Year on Tigers -145
The Key: Oakland has an opportunity to close out the Tigers, but I don't like its chances. The A's are 1-10 in their last 11 playoff games with an opportunity to close out a series. Fister got lit up the last time he faced the A's, but he'll learn from that start and will be even more focused as a result. Prior to that start, he had held the A's to two earned runs or less in 11 of 12 starts, including five straight. He shut Oakland down in last year's ALDS and owns a 1.71 ERA over five career postseason starts. The Tigers are 10-4 in Fister's last 14 starts and 25-10 in his last 35 home starts. Oakland's Straily has struggled on the road where he has a 4.11 ERA. Take the Tigers.

6* MNF "Total" Annihilator on Jets/Falcons Under 44.5
The Key: You want to play the under on home teams in games when the total is between 42.5 and 49.0 points if they have a +/- 3.0 points per game differential and are up against a team with a -3 to -7 points per game differential. Doing so has produced a 70-31 unders run since 1983. We have seen an average total line of 44.6 points in this situation but just 41.5 total points scored on average. It is also worth noting that this system is 13-0 the last three seasons. In addition, the Falcons went 6-0 under in home games after the first month of the season last season, holding opponents to just 14.5 points during this stretch. Last year, Atlanta really settled in defensively once October hit, and I expect more of the same this year. The Jets have been outstanding defensively this season, ranking 2nd in the NFL with 283 yards allowed per game. Even though the offense did the defense no favors with four turnovers in last week's 38-13 loss to Tennessee, this stellar defense is not at all happy about the 38 points that were on the scoreboard. I expect a very strong performance from the New York defense tonight. Take the under.

6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -108
The Key: The Cardinals have had Morton's number. The Pirates are 0-7 in Morton's last 7 starts versus the Cardinals, a stretch where he has a 6.82 ERA. Morton has also struggled in day games where he has a 4.81 ERA compared to his 2.62 mark at night. Beltran is 6 for 15 off Morton, Jon Jay is 8 for 16, Yadier Molina is 8 for 19 and Matt Holliday is 8 for 25. Sounds like runs to me. It's also worth noting that Pittsburgh is 0-5 in Morton's last five home starts versus a team with a winning record. Wacha was brilliant his last time out, nearly tossing a no-no against Washington. He also shut the Pirates down in his lone start against them last month, holding them scoreless on two hits in seven innings of a 9-2 victory. Take St. Louis.

6* NFL Sunday Night Bailout on Raiders +5
The Key: The Chargers are getting too much respect on the road against an Oakland team that took a very good Colts team down to the wire and played Denver tougher than anyone else this season. The Chargers check in off a strong performance against Dallas but are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a victory. The Raiders will be very motivated here. Not only have they lost their last two, but they were swept by the San Diego in last year's series. One of those losses came by only three points, and the Raiders have won or lost by three points in four of the last six meetings. The Chargers are just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -143
The Key: The Braves have been inconsistent on the road where they have a losing record. They are also at a disadvantage on the mound as Teheran's road ERA (3.37) is over a run higher that Ryu's home ERA (2.32). The Braves are 2-7 in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning record, 1-10 in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in their last 4 games overall as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Dodgers are 7-1 in their last 8 Divisional Playoff games, 10-3 in their last 13 home games versus a team with a winning record and 10-4 in Ryu's last 14 home starts. Take LA.

7* AFC Game of the Year on Bengals pk
The Key: Motivated by last week's ugly loss in Cleveland, this incredibly talented Bengals teams will bounce back strong at home where it is 2-0 SU and ATS on the season. The Patriots are 4-0, but I'm not sold. They were fortunate to win their first two against the Bills and Jets and were outgained in last week's win against the Falcons. Despite playing a very soft schedule to this point, New England enters the week ranked just 16th in total defense and 20th in scoring offense. Cincy enters the week ranked 13th in total defense. Its offense is yet to get untracked, but I love it to do so here. New England showed just how vulnerable it is in the back when it gave up 399 passing yards last week. Plus, it will miss defensive tackle Vince Wilfork immensely. The Bengals are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Also, you want to fade road underdogs or pickems that scored 30 points or more in their last game when they are matched up against a team that was held to three points or less in the first half of its last game. Doing so has produced a 41-15 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is 18-6 ATS the last five seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Last week's loss at Cleveland will serve as the wake-up call Cincy needed. Bet the Bengals.

6* NFC Game of the Week on Bears +1
The Key: New Orleans looked good Monday night, but it is at a disadvantage here with one less day to prepare. Plus, it has not been the same team on the road. The Saints were fortunate to win at Tampa Bay in Week 2. They did not cover the spread in that game and squeaked by with a two-point victory against a team that's now 0-4. The Saints were on a 3-6 slide on the road prior to that game, and one of those wins came in OT against Dallas so they easily could have been on a 2-7 skid. Home field has been a big deal in this series. The home team is 4-0 in the last four meetings with the wins coming by 13.3 points on average. Three of these wins were by the Bears. In terms of the line, the home team is on a 5-0-1 ATS run in the series. Take Chicago.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rays -113
The Key: I expect the Rays to bounce back strong behind David Price, who has thrived at Fenway. Price is 10-6 with a 2.93 ERA in 20 career starts against the Red Sox, including a 6-1 mark with a 1.88 ERA in 10 games in Boston. The Rays are 7-3 in Price's last 10 road starts versus Red Sox. They are also 5-0 in his last 5 starts in Game 2 of a series and 21-6 in his last 27 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. John Lackey has posted a 5.33 ERA over his last four starts and is 3-5 with a 6.70 ERA in nine starts versus the Rays since joining the Red Sox in 2010. The Red Sox have been a terrible underdog investment. They are 27-57 in their last 84 games as an underdog, 9-25 in their last 34 games as a home underdog and 1-5 in Lackey's last 6 starts as an underdog. Take Tampa Bay.

7* ACC Game of the Year on Wake Forest +8.5
The Key: Wake Forest just got smoked by a Clemson team that NC State played to a 12-point game, but I'm not ready to drink the Wolfpack Kool-Aid. It should be noted that the Wolfpack got Clemson at home while the Demon Deacons played the Tigers on the road, and that had a lot to do with the differing margins of losses. NC State clubbed Wake 37-6 last season, but that game was at NC State. Things have gone much differently when the Wolfpack travel to Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have won five straight at home against the Wolfpack by an average of 11 points. They have also won seven of their last eight at home in the series with the lone loss during this span coming by only three points. The Wolfpack are 0-8 ATS in these games. The Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall, and the home team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Wolfpack are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 9-27 ATS in their last 36 as a road favorite. The Demon Deacons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. Take the points.

6* C-USA Game of the Week on Middle Tennessee State +7.5
The Key: Oddsmakers are begging for the money to roll in on East Carolina after they won 55-31 at North Carolina last week, but we won't bite. MTSU was crushed at BYU last week and suffered a 20-point loss at North Carolina back in Week 2. These two defeats are giving us added line value. The Blue Raiders, who are 2-0 at home, will be extremely motivated by last week's loss. East Carolina, on the other hand, finds itself in a letdown situation following its big upset win. Both of these teams have wins over Florida Atlantic this season, and it can be argued that MTSU was actually the more impressive team against the Owls despite winning by a lesser margin. It racked up 446 yards of offense and forced five turnovers on the road while the Pirates only managed 312 yards in their home win. The Pirates have been a dead fade of late following victory. They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points. The Pirates are also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Blue Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 conference games. Take the points.

6* AAC Game of the Week on SMU +5
The Key: SMU is just 1-3 but has played a brutal schedule to this point with games against Texas Tech, Texas A&M and TCU. It was not as overmatched in those games as the scores lead you to believe as it is only getting outgained by an average of 20.0 yards on the season. Turnovers kept the Mustangs from being more competitive. They will no doubt place an emphasis on ball security this week and are fortunate to be going up against a Rutgers squad that has forced only one turnover in its last two games. The Scarlet Knights are coming off a bye but are still riding high following a comeback win over Arkansas. Plus, they visit Louisville Thursday and will be unable to keep from looking ahead to that game. Off back-to-back blowout losses on the road, I fully expect SMU to show up in a big way at home here. The Mustangs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Scarlet Knights are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games versus a team with a losing record. Additionally, you want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with an excellent rushing defense allowing 100 or less rushing yards per game if they were held to 75 or less rushing yards in their last game. This situation is 6-1 ATS the last three seasons and 51-19 ATS since 1992. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State -5
The Key: This is a game Utah State wants badly. The Aggies ended a 10-game losing streak in the series with a 31-16 win in 2010. However, they have suffered three-point losses to BYU each of the past two seasons and will be very hungry here as a result. Utah State enters off a 40-12 victory at San Jose State, and recent history says that win will fuel its confidence. In fact, the Aggies are 9-0 ATS since the beginning of last season after a win by 21 or more points. They have won by an average score of 36.7 to 15.1 in these spots. Utah State is also 6-0 ATS following a blowout win of 21 points or more over a conference rival since the start of last season and 7-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game since the start of last year. The Aggies have also thrived under the Friday night lights at 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. The Cougars enter off a blowout win over Middle Tennessee State but are 0-6 ATS off a home win going back to last season. The Cougars are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Utah State. Lay the points.

6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Braves -102
The Key: The Braves dropped Game 1, but I like their chances of evening the series. Atlanta is 5-0 in its last 5 games following a loss. In addition, it is 20-4 this season in home games following a defeat. The Braves are 66-28 in their last 94 home games overall so this team clearly doesn't lose many consecutive home contests. The Dodgers have had some problems with left-handed starters. They are averaging only 3.6 runs per game off them and are 3-9 in their last 12 games against them. Their struggles figure to continue against Minor. The Braves were 2-0 in his starts against the Dodgers this season. He posted a 2.25 ERA in those starts, limited the Dodgers to a .205 average and had 15 strikeouts over 12 innings. The Braves are 8-0 in Minor's last 8 starts versus National League West foes and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus a team with a winning record. Greinke's clubs are 0-2 in his two career starts in Atlanta. He gave up 9 runs in 11 innings in those contests. Take Atlanta.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Utah +6.5
The Key: UCLA is getting too much respect on the road. It has a pair of blowout wins at home against a couple patsies. It did beat Nebraska on the road (I'm not sold on the Huskers) but trailed 21-3 in that game. Utah has played a much more difficult schedule with in-state rivalry wins over Utah State and BYU and an overtime loss to Oregon State. Those three high-intensity games will benefit the Utes tonight. UCLA won last season's meeting 21-14 at home, but it hasn't fared as well on the road in the series. It has lost its last two trips to Utah by 25 and 38 points. Both teams are coming off a bye, but Utah has been the far better investment in such spots. UCLA is on a 5-17 ATS slide in road games after a bye week while Utah is on a 28-14 ATS run after a bye. Zooming in, the Bruins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week while the Utes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week. Utah has been an awesome underdog investment over the years. It is 51-28 ATS as an underdog since 1992, including 30-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points during this time frame. Take the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Browns -3.5
The Key: Winning on the road on a short week is too much to ask of the battered Bills. Buffalo is 0-5 in its last five road games with each of these losses coming by at least six points. The Bills upset Baltimore at home Sunday, but they are 1-9 ATS on the road after a game at home since the start of the 2011 season. They have lost by an average score of 32.5 to 15.3 in these 10 instances. The Browns enter with some nice momentum following back-to-back victories, and they aren't satisfied. They now believe that they can contend in the AFC North. The Browns have a sizable advantage on the defensive side of the football. They rank 3rd in total defense while the Bills rank 27th. It is also bodes well for Cleveland that Buffalo is wounded. Both Buffalo backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are dealing with injuries as well as receiver Stevie Johnson. In the secondary, starters Jairus Byrd and Leodis McKelvin are dealing with injuries. Lay the points.

6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -143
The Key: The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last four games versus Pittsburgh. They are also 4-0 in their last four home games versus the Pirates. They have way more postseason experience and a better starter going in Wainwright. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wainwright's last five starts and 4-0 in his last four starts as a home favorite. The Cards are 2-0 in his home starts against the Pirates this season while Pittsburgh is 0-2 in Burnett's starts in St. Louis this season. Burnett was rocked in those two, giving up 10 earned runs in 7 1-3 innings. The Cards are 6-0 in their last six games overall, 6-0 in their last six games versus a team with a winning record, 6-0 in their last six home games versus a team with a winning road record and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take St. Louis.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Indians +103
The Key: The Indians are showing value in the underdog role at home where they are 49-24 in their last 73 games. They are 10-0 in their last 10 games overall, 9-0 in their last nine games when their opponent allows two runs or less in its previous game, 4-0 in their last four games when their opponent scores five runs or more in its previous game and 4-0 in their last four games versus a right-handed starter. The Indians have seen Cobb once this season and twice last season so they have some familiarity with his stuff. The Rays, on the other hand, have never seen Salazar. That will be to his advantage. Cobb typically hasn't been as sharp when breaking his four-day between starts routine. In fact, the Rays are 0-4 in his last four starts on five days' rest. The Rays are also 0-7 in their last seven playoff games as a favorite and 0-6 in their last six playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Cleveland is 22-8 in its last 30 home games versus the Rays. Take the Tribe.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -126
The Key: Pittsburgh has all the momentum on its side following a three-game sweep of the Reds. Cincy is 0-5 in its last five games with those losses coming at home, and now it ventures out on the road where it has been far less consistent. The Cincy offense is really struggling. It has been held to three runs or fewer in six straight games. The Pirates have scored four runs or more in seven of their last 10 games. I can't see the Reds getting much of anything of Liriano, who's 8-1 with a 1.47 ERA in 11 home starts. The Pirates are 7-1 in his last 8 home starts. Cueto has fared well in a pair of starts since returning from the DL, but those came against the lowly Mets and Astros. He has a 3.90 ERA on the road this season. We'll take the hotter team at home tonight.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Saints -7
The Key: I'm not sold on the Dolphins. They are fortunate to be 3-0 considering they have been outgained in each of their games and rank just 18th in total defense and 27th in total offense. Ryan Tannehill has made strides as the Dolphins rank 14th in passing offense with 249.0 ypg. However, he's up against a New Orleans defense that ranks second against the pass at 184.3 ypg allowed. The Saints are 9-0 ATS in home games since the start of the 2011 season versus teams that average 235 or more passing yards per game. They have won these contests by an average score of 38.0 to 17.6. While the Saints are a pass-first team, they know the importance of running the football to keep the defense off balance. They ran it effectively last week, and I expect them to have success on the ground versus a Miami defense that is allowing 4.7 yards per carry. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in home games since the beginning of the 2011 season versus teams that allow 4.5 yards or more per carry. They have won these games by an average score of 38.0 to 21.5. Drew Brees has won eight consecutive Monday Night Football contests while throwing for 24 TDs against 5 INTs, and the Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday nighters. He should have a comfortable night in the pocket with Miami DE Cameron Wake expected to miss with a knee injury. New Orleans is 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less since the start of the 2011 season. Lay the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Rays -116
The Key: Price doesn't have the best track record against Texas. Still, he has held the Rangers to three runs or less in five of his last six starts against them, and I like his experience in this spot. I think nerves will come into play a lot more for Texas rookie Martin Perez. The Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning record while the Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning record. The Rays are also 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Rays are 33-14 in Price's last 47 starts as a road favorite and 20-6 in his last 26 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Rangers are 1-6 in Perez's last 7 starts versus a team with a winning record. Take Tampa Bay.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Falcons -129
The Key: I expect the Falcons to cover the spread, but I'm taking them on the money line at an affordable price to take away any possibility of a push or backdoor loss. New England is 3-0 but hasn't been very impressive. It could easily be 1-2. Now, it travels to one of the toughest venues in the NFL, and I don't expect it to make it out alive. The Falcons are a ridiculous 34-7 at home in the regular season the last 5+ seasons. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS under coach Smith in September home games. It is 12-4 ATS under Smith in home games in the first half of the season. It is also 19-5 ATS under Smith following 1 or more consecutive losses. Take the Falcons.

6* Late Afternoon Annihilator on Eagles +11
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses and having had nine days to prepare, the Eagles are showing value catching double digits against a Denver squad playing on a short week. Chip Kelly's offense has been a nightmare for teams to prepare for, let alone on a short week. The Eagles rank No. 2 in the NFL in total offense with 461.7 ypg and No. 1 in rushing with 209.0 ypg. Denver has yet to be challenged on the ground as its opponents have fallen behind by so much early, but I believe they'll be challenged here. Philly's run game will keep the Denver offense off the field enough to cover this hefty number. The Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Also, Philly is on a 9-1 ATS run after a game with a turnover margin of -4 or worse. Denver is on a 2-12 ATS slide after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games. Take the points.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Rays -175
The Key: The Rays need this game and are in great hands with Matt Moore set to get the ball. The Rays are 22-6 in Moore's last 28 starts, 14-2 in his last 16 road starts, 9-1 in his last 10 starts as a road favorite, 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus a team with a losing record, 5-0 in his last 5 road starts versus a team with a losing record and 3-0 in his last 3 starts against the Blue Jays. Moore have averaged 3.5 walks per game in six career starts versus Toronto but hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of those games. In fact, pitchers that are a little bit wild have fared well against a Toronto club that isn't very disciplined at the plate. The Blue Jays are 0-8 this season versus starting pitchers who average 2.75 walks or more per start. They have lost these games by 2.4 runs on average. Take Tampa Bay.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Giants +4.5
The Key: Fueled by an 0-3 start and last week's 38-0 loss at Carolina, you can bet Eli Manning and company will be ready to go Sunday. I'm not sold on the Chiefs, who have benefited from turnovers the last two weeks. New York has had major turnover issues, but I just don't see it continuing. Manning has been far too good throughout his career for the poor decision making to continue. It's far too early for the Chiefs to deserve this much respect at home. Consider that they are 0-6 ATS as a home favorite since the 2011 season and have lost these games by an average score of 24.5 to 11.0. Carolina got whatever it wanted on the ground last week, but the Giants tend to respond after getting torched in the run game. They are 6-0 ATS since 2011 after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. They have won by an average of 13.3 points in these contests. Lastly, the Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Chiefs. 5 of these wins were SU with the other a 3-point loss in KC. I'll take the points as the Giants have an excellent chance to win this one outright.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Jaguars +9
The Key: This is a sandwich game for Indy, which is coming off a big win over the 49ers and has Seattle on deck. It won't give a Jacksonville team that has suffered three consecutive double-digit losses the attention it deserves. You want to play against favorites that are coming off a win of 14 points or more if they are matched up against an opponent that is coming off back-to-back double-digit losses. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS record the last 10 seasons. You also want to take underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 points or less per game following a game where they allowed 40 points or more as doing so has produced a 76-37 ATS record since 1983. The Jags have given the Colts problems. Jacksonville has won 3 of the last 4 meetings. It has also won or lost by fewer than 9 points in 18 of the last 22 meetings. Take the points.

6* NFC North Annihilator on Lions -3
The Key: The Bears are very fortunate to be 3-0. They needed late comebacks to beat the Bengals and Vikings and then capitalized on one Pittsburgh miscue after another. They'll have a tough time getting past a Detroit squad that will be out for revenge after getting swept in the season series a year ago. The Lions are one of the best offensive teams in the league, and I like their chances against a Chicago defense that is giving up 383 ypg. Detroit wins this game if it can take care of the football, which is something it has done a good job of thus far. The Lions have committed only one turnover in each of their last two games. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 14 points, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Bears are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus NFC North foes and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a non-conference contest. The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Detroit. Lay the points.

6* Oddsmaker Error on Arkansas State +21
The Key: This line is an overreaction to Arkansas State's upset loss at Memphis. The Red Wolves were caught looking ahead to this game, and they'll be even more fired up as a result to last week's ugly performance. The Red Wolves are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after being held to less than 20 points in their previous game and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Mizzou has really struggled to defend the pass in its last two games, and I believe Arkansas State can take advantage. It is 6-0 ATS since the beginning of last season when matched up against teams like Missouri that allow 250.0 passing yards or more per game. The Tigers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Take the points.

6* Under the Radar *CA$H COW* on Western Michigan -2
The Key: Motivated by last week's 59-3 loss at Iowa, and further fueled by last season's 41-24 defeat at Kent State, the Broncos will be hungry and focused when they take the field at home Saturday night. Western Michigan wants its first win of the season badly, and this is a great spot to get it. The Broncos are 10-2 in their last 12 against Kent State, including 5-0 at home during this span. These five wins have come by an average of 30.2 points. The home team has been the play of late as it is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Golden Flashes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Western Michigan and the favorite is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Lay the points.

6* National TV Annihilator (ABC or ESPN2) on Boston College +21.5
The Key: This game is all about revenge for Boston College, which was brutally embarrassed at Florida State (51-7) last season. With that loss serving as plenty of motivation and having had a bye week to prepare, I expect the Eagles to challenge the Seminoles here. Boston College is on an impressive 15-5 ATS run at home versus teams with a winning percentage above 75%. The Seminoles are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Lastly, they are 0-6 ATS since the start of last season following 3 or more consecutive straight up wins. Take the points.

6* Letdown Game of the Week on Buffalo +1
The Key: Look for Connecticut to suffer a letdown after coming up just short of pulling off the shocker against Michigan. I don't see the Huskies being over that loss yet as they head out on the road for the first time. In fact, UConn is 0-6 ATS under coach Pasqualoni in road games when playing on 6 or less days' rest. It has lost by an average score of 30.3 to 17.9 in this situation. It doesn't bode well for UConn that it totaled just 159 yards through the air last week. That's because it is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in its previous game. It also doesn't look good for the Huskies that they held Michigan to only 97 yards through the air as they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Buffalo has had a bye week to prepare, and it will be lacking no incentive here as it looks to end an eight-game slide in the series. Take the Bulls.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on South Florida +18.5
The Key: Motivated by an ugly 0-3 start and further motivated by last season's embarrassing 40-9 loss at Miami, I expect South Florida to give the Hurricanes a lot more than they bargained for. The Bulls will benefit greatly from having last week off to prepare for this game. Miami is riding high following a 77-7 victory over Savannah State and will already be looking ahead to next week's conference opener against Georgia Tech. In addition, this is Miami's first road game of the season. Things typically don't go as smoothly for teams when they venture out on the road for the first time. Miami is on an 18-33 ATS slide following a cover as a double-digit favorite. It is also on a 13-27 ATS skid in road games after holding opponents to 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Teams headed up by Willie Taggart are 23-4 ATS all-time in the underdog role. Take the points.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on San Jose State +10
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats on the road to Stanford and Minnesota, and with last season's 22-point upset loss to Utah State also lighting a fire, San Jose State will be all business when it takes the field tonight. The Spartans have been a terrific investment at 13-3 ATS in all lined games since the beginning of last season. They are an equally impressive 12-3 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2011 season. The Spartans gave up 43 points and 353 rushing yards last week. However, they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Take the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Reds -121
The Key: I'll go against the Pirates with Burnett on the mound. The right-hander is 2-5 with a 5.36 ERA in eight career starts in Cincinnati, and he has a 6.68 ERA in his last six outings on the road. The Pirates are 2-7 in Burnett's last 9 road starts, 1-8 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-5 in his last 5 starts in series openers. Bailey has been dialed in. The Reds are 8-2 in his last 10 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 the last 4 times he's gotten the ball following a team loss. Bailey has a 2.69 ERA in 15 starts versus Pittsburgh with the Reds winning 10 of those. The Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10 meetings in Cincinnati. Take the Reds.

6* Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on 49ers -3
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing losses, I expect the defending NFC champs to bounce back strong here. You want to back road teams that check in off an upset loss of 10 points or more, provided the line is +3 to -3, as doing so has produced a 35-12 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. It is also worth noting that the 49ers are on a 30-14 ATS run following an upset loss. You also want to fade home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are outscored by 5.0 points or more per game in the first half, provided they were held to 14 points or less last game, as doing so has produced a 27-7 ATS record the last 5 seasons. St. Louis has really struggled to run the football, and that bodes well for San Francisco as it has struggled to stop the run in its last two games. The Rams are on a 4-17 ATS slide after being held to 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Additionally, the 49ers are 11-3 ATS under coach Harbaugh versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 yards per play or more. Lay the points.

6* NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +3
The Key: I'll grab the points with Iowa State as it will want this game just a little bit more than Tulsa. Not only are the Cyclones after their first win of the season, but they're out for revenge for last year's bowl loss to the Golden Hurricane. Iowa State and Tulsa also met in the regular season last year with the Cyclones getting that one by double digits so they will head into this matchup hungry and confident. Iowa State was beat up at the line of scrimmage by beefy lines in its first two games but Tulsa isn't as physical up front. That bodes well for Iowa State. The Golden Hurricane are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 versus the Big 12, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 September contests. Take the points.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Mets -150
The Key: The Mets have the edge on the mound with Gee, who is 12-10 with a 3.54 ERA in 31 starts. He has a 2.53 ERA in 14 starts at home. The Mets are 4-0 in Gee's last 4 starts on regular rest (4 days), 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a losing record, 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite. Milwaukee's Hellweg is 1-4 with a 7.36 ERA and 2.220 WHIP in 5 starts. His ERA is 9.39 in a pair of road starts. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Brewers are 1-5 in Hellweg's last 6 starts, including 0-2 in his last 2. Take New York.

7* MLB Game of the Week on Padres -111
The Key: Ian Kennedy was shelled at Arizona in his first start against his former team, but I fully expect him to have his revenge here. Kennedy has been outstanding in 11 career starts at Petco Park, going 6-2 with a 2.39 ERA. He's 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA in five games there as a member of the Padres. San Diego is 3-0 in his last three home starts, during which he's allowed just two earned runs in 18 innings. September has been the month to back Kennedy as his clubs are 13-1 in his September starts since 2011. It is also worth noting that San Diego is 7-0 in home games this season versus starting pitchers like Randall Delgado who give up 1.0 home run or more per start. The Padres are 5-1 in their last six home games versus the Diamondbacks. Take San Diego.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Braves -138
The Key: With Atlanta's lead for home-field advantage throughout the NL Playoffs down to half a game, it will be all business when it takes the field tonight. The Braves have been a terrific investment at home where they are 62-25 in their last 87 home games. They are 8-1 in their last 9 home games against the Brewers. Thornburg has been good for Milwaukee, but I like the proven Garcia in this spot. He has allowed just 2 runs in 2 starts this month and has a 1.31 ERA in five games since being traded to the Braves. Take Atlanta.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Padres -107
The Key: The Padres are showing value at home at such an affordable price. They are 6-0 in their last 6 series openers, 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus the Diamondbacks. San Diego's Stults has been outstanding at home where he has a 3.17 ERA. Arizona's McCarthy has struggled on the road where he has a 5.59 ERA. The Diamondbacks are 3-7 in McCarthy's last 10 starts and 1-4 in his last 5 road starts. The Padres are 6-2 in Stults' last 8 starts as a home favorite. Take San Diego.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Raiders +15.5
The Key: The Broncos are being overvalued because of how dominant they've been in their first two games. They have yet to be tested on the ground because Baltimore and the New York Giants were forced to take to the air due to big deficits. They'll be tested on the ground tonight, however, by the league's second-ranked rushing offense, which averages 198.5 yards per game. Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden have been explosive, and I expect them to run the ball effectively tonight. Doing so keeps the Denver offense off the field. Denver has been dealt a big blow with Peyton Manning's blindside protector, Ryan Clady, being lost for the season. His replacement, Chris Clark, has made six career starts at tight end but none at tackle. The Broncos were already without starting center Dan Koppen. These losses are big tonight because Oakland has shown the ability to rush the passer. It has nine sacks through the first two games. The Raiders are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 division games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus AFC foes. The road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings, and the Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Denver. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday Night Football games. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Steelers +3
The Key: With its back up against the wall, I fully expect this proud Pittsburgh franchise to respond in a big way. The Steelers easily could have defeated the Bengals Monday had it not been for a pair of costly turnovers. The Steelers are not in as bad of shape as the media would like you to believe. The Bears are 2-0 but are very, very fortunate to be so. They trailed the Bengals 21-10 in the second half of the first game, and they trailed the Vikings 30-24 late in the 4th last week. The Bears are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. The Steelers are on a 19-8 ATS run in home games following a loss to a division rival. They are also 11-3 ATS in home games after being held to 14 points or less under coach Tomlin. Pittsburgh has won by an average score of 27.4 to 11.1 in this situation. Take Pittsburgh.

6* MLB *Afternoon Delight* on Royals -128
The Key: The Rangers are 4-12 in their last 16 games. They won yesterday but are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. The Royals are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss and 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. I expect a gem from James Shields, who is going for his 100th career win. Shields is 5-1 with a 1.36 ERA in his last seven regular-season outings against the Rangers. The Royals are 7-0 in Shields' last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Kansas City.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Titans -3
The Key: After showing well in a pair of road games against the Steelers and Texans, the Titans will be jacked up for their home opener. They'll also be incredibly motivated. Tennessee is 0-8 against the Chargers and was whipped 38-10 in San Diego last year so it will be out for blood. The Titans were a 6-point dog in last year's game, and they have caught 6 and 7 points, respectively, the first two weeks. Now, they're laying points against a team that has owned them and just upset a high-powered Philly squad? Odds makers clearly like Tennessee's chances here, and I couldn't agree more. Keep in mind the favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The Titans are the better defensive team, and they have had success by committing to running the football and not turning it over. Tennessee hasn't committed a turnover this season while forcing 4. San Diego has committed 3 and forced only 1. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus AFC foes and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after being held to less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Take Tennessee.

6* NFC Game of the Week on Rams +4
The Key: A Dallas team that could easily be 0-2 is being overvalued here. The Cowboys are consistently one of the most overvalued teams every season because of their huge public backing. As a result, the Boys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. They are also 4-12 ATS as a home favorite under coach Garrett. It is also worth noting that they are 6-18 ATS since the start of the 2011 season versus NFC opponents. The Rams have been a terrific investment on the road where they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7. Take the points.

6* National TV Annihilator on Texas -160 (note: I like Texas to cover the spread but am taking it on the ML for insurance)
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats, and further fueled by 5 consecutive losses to Kansas State, Texas will be lacking no motivation when it takes the field Saturday night. While national title hopes are likely out the window, the Longhorns, who entered the season with big expectations, are still gunning for a Big 12 title. No matter what has happened to this point, I can assure you Texas' 19 returning starters have not forgotten the beating it took at K-State last season. Even if David Ash can't go, Texas will be able to move the football comfortably on a K-State stop unit that brought back just 2 starters. Defense has been the biggest issue for Texas so far, but there is too much talent on that side of the football for poor play to continue. At a certain point, it comes down to how bad the players "want it", and I'm confident they'll want it against the Wildcats. Texas outgained K-State last season, and that squad was much better offensively with Collin Klein at the controls. K-State has won by doing the little things, but it's on the road and giving up a ton of talent to a motivated side. Texas is on a 9-2 ATS run when it checks into a game off a home defeat of 10 points or more. Take Texas.

6* NCAAF *CA$H COW* on SMU +28.5
The Key: We'll fade Texas A&M in a big letdown spot. It's a gross understatement to say the Aggies will have a tough time getting up for this one after losing a hard-fought battle to Alabama in a game that had nearly as much hype as the Super Bowl. Texas A&M won 48-3 at SMU last season so it won't be giving the Mustangs close to enough attention. I expect SMU to be very prepared following a bye. Its offense has performed well to this point, and I expect it to challenge an A&M stop unit that is giving up 489 ypg. The Mustangs got a major scare from Montana State in their last game, and that scare will have them all the more focused. June Jones wasn't at all happy about the -2 turnover margin in the contest, but his SMU squads are 8-1 ATS all-time in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. The Mustangs are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a game where they failed to cover.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Miami Ohio +22
The Key: This game is all about revenge for a Miami Ohio squad that was crushed by 38 at Cincinnati last season. The Bearcats have defeated the Redhawks by margins of 38, 27, 42, 24, 25 and 37 the past six years so the fact this line opened at 24 or less at a lot of books tells us oddsmakers are looking to trap the public. Miami Ohio has had a bye week to prepare. That's big. Plus, it will be motivated by poor performances in its first two games in addition to its recent matchups with the Bearcats. Cincy rolled against Northwestern State last week so it will be feeling pretty good about itself as it goes up against a school it has dominated. I just don't see the Bearcats giving their full attention and focus to Miami Ohio here. The home team has covered the number in 4 of the last 5 meetings. Also, Cincy is on a 0-5 ATS slide following a victory of more than 20 points and a 4-15 ATS skid after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in its previous game. With extra preparation time and a huge motivational advantage, I fully expect the Redhawks to keep this one within the number.

6* MLB *Afternoon Delight* on Yankees -153
The Key: It hasn't been wise to bet against Ivan Nova in interleague play. The right-hander is 6-1 with a 2.67 ERA in 10 interleague starts - 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two this year. The Yankees are 9-1 all-time in his interleague starts, including 5-0 in his last 5. They are also are 4-0 the last 4 times he's gotten the ball on 5 days' rest and 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Giants are 1-7 in their last 8 interleague road games. Take New York.