Sports Picks & Predictions

6* Kentucky/Tennessee SEC *CA$H COW* on Kentucky +6

The Key: The price is right to back Kentucky in a game that I view as very evenly-matched, so getting 6 points is a nice value.  Kentucky really should be 3-0, but since they are 1-2 there’s value in the line.  They outgained Auburn by 60 yards in a loss.  They missed an extra point in overtime against Ole Miss that cost them the game.  And their true colors showed last week in a dominant 24-2 win over Mississippi State.  Tennessee was fortunate to beat South Carolina in the opener.  And they were exposed last week in a 21-44 loss to Georgia.  If they wanted to win the SEC East, they needed to win that game against the Bulldogs.  They will suffer a hangover from that defeat and won’t be fully recovered in time to face this hungry Wildcats squad.  Kentucky is 10-2 ATS off a home win over the last 3 years.  The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games off a win.  The Volunteers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a winning record.  The Vols are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 home games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Kentucky.

6* Dodgers/Braves Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -1.5 (-140)

The Key: The Dodgers won’t go down without a fight.  They’ve come too far and too close to another World Series to give up after being down 3-1 in this series.  They’ll give the ball to Dustin May, who is 2-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 11 starts this year.  He has been very solid in the postseason as well.  The Braves are likely to give the ball to Josh Tomlin, who is 1-2 with a 6.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 5 starts this year.  It really doesn’t matter if they start someone else, I’m still on the Dodgers on the Run Line here as the road team.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line.

7* SMU/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU -6

The Key: SMU is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this year and one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.  They beat the best Group of 5 team last year in Memphis 30-27 last time out and now have had 2 weeks to get ready for Tulane.  The Green Wave are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and fortunate to be 2-2.  They had to come back from a 24-7 deficit to beat lowly South Alabama 27-24 in their opener.  Then they lost to a bad Navy team 24-27 before beating terrible Southern Miss.  They lost 31-49 last week to Houston despite being +5 in turnovers.  They were outgained 211 to 476 by the Cougars in that defeat.  QB play gives SMU a huge edge here.  Former Texas transfer Shane Buechele is in the 2nd season in Sonny Dykes’ system.  He is completing 69.1% of his passes for 1,326 yards with 10 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions.  Tulane has one of the worst QB situations in college football as both Keon Howard and Michael Pratt have been terrible.  The Green Wave are completing just 43.6% of their passes for 146 yards per game and 5.8 per attempt on the year.  And they lost their top 2 running backs in Tyjae Spears and Corey Dauphine to season-ending injuries, so their offense is in a world of hurt right now.  SMU is going to get its points, and I just don’t think Tulane can keep up with their suspect offense. Take SMU.

7* Dodgers/Braves Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -1.5 (-139)

The Key: Clayton Kershaw is back healthy here after back spasms kept him out of his Game 2 start.  That’s great news for the Dodgers considering Kershaw is 7-0 with a 1.49 ERA in 14 lifetime starts against the Braves having never lost to them.  The Dodgers just put up a 15-spot in Game 3 after scoring 7 runs in the final 3 innings of Game 2.  They are hot at the plate and have their ace on the rubber tonight.  That’s a winning combination.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line.

6* Georgia State/Arkansas State Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Georgia State +3.5

The Key: Georgia State returned 16 starters from the team that beat Arkansas State 52-38 last year.  The Panthers had 39 first downs and 722 total yards in that game while limiting Arkansas State to 421 total yards.  The Panthers look like one of the best teams in the Sun Belt through two games.  They took Louisiana to overtime and crushed East Carolina 49-29.  And now the Panthers have nearly 2 weeks to get ready for this game with Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves just played on Saturday against Central Arkansas after getting crushed by Coastal Carolina, 23-52.  So Arkansas State has just 4 days to prepare for Georgia State.  They are at a severe disadvantage here schedule-wise, especially since their team has been hit hard by Covid-19 in the past few weeks.  Take Georgia State.

6* Coastal Carolina/Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Louisiana -7

The Key: Louisiana beat Coastal Carolina 48-7 last year on the road.  If oddsmakers would have set this line before the season, Louisiana would be a minimum of a 14-point favorite and probably higher.  But we are getting Louisiana at -7 here despite the fact that Louisiana is 3-0 and has done what they are supposed to do.  They’ve done even more than that with their upset road win in the opener.  And they did not play well their last 2 games and still won, and part of that was due to a letdown and also Covid-19 problems.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are rested and back healthy now since they haven’t played since September 26th.  Coastal Carolina is also 3-0 but against a much softer schedule in Kansas, Campbell and Arkansas State.  This is a big step up for them and I don’t think they’re ready for it.  Louisiana should show out on this ESPN spotlight game tonight.  Take Louisiana.

7* NLCS Game of the Year on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers haven’t lost 3 in a row all season.  They aren’t about to start now.  They have a big edge on the rubber with Urias over Wright tonight and it will show as the Dodgers win this game by 2 runs or more.  The Dodgers are 47-19 in their last 66 games off a loss and a perfect 4-0 off 2 consecutive losses in 2020.  They win with room to spare in Game 3 tonight to get back into this series.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Bills/Titans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -3

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are better on both sides of the football in this matchup with the Tennessee Titans.  While the Bills have pretty much dominated and led almost the entire way during their 4-0 start, the Titans have not looked near as dominant in their 3-0 start.  Their 3 wins came against teams who are a combined 3-11 and they came by a combined 6 points with a 2-point win over Denver, a 3-point win over Jacksonville and a 1-point win over Minnesota.  The Titans gave up an average of 422.3 YPG against those 3 offenses and now have to face a dangerous Bills offense that averages 30.8 PPG and 409.8 YPG this year.  The Titans have been shredded on the ground for 166 RYPG and 5.8 YPC.  The Bills should be able to move the football at will on them either on the ground or through the air.  Bets against dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 30 points or more in 2 straight games against a team that scored 17 points or more in the first half of 2 consecutive games are 26-6 ATS since 1983.  The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  Buffalo is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Tennessee is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Take Buffalo.

6* Braves/Dodgers Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -165

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers will bounce back in Game 2 tonight with ace Clayton Kershaw taking the ball.  Kershaw is 8-2 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 12 starts this year.  Kershaw has never lost to the Braves, going 7-0 with a 1.49 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 14 lifetime starts against them.  The Dodgers are 47-18 in their last 65 games off a loss.  Enough said.  Take Los Angeles.

Note: Kershaw has been scratched.  Still like Dodgers at roughly -135 line with Gonsolin on the rubber.  He sports a 2.31 ERA and 0.84 WHIP across 46 2/3 innings in 2020.

7* Chargers/Saints MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +8

The Key: Los Angeles rookie QB Justin Herbert has been awesome in his 3 starts this season.  He is completing 72% of his passes and averaging 310.3 passing yards per game.  With him under center, the Chargers have a good chance of going on the road and knocking off the New Orleans Saints this week, who have a ton of key injuries on both sides of the ball.  And the Chargers have a pretty underrated defense with Bosa and Ingram leading the way as pass rushers.  Herbert and that defense have been keeping Los Angeles in games this season as all 4 of their games have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  The Chargers are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 games as road underdogs.  The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Braves/Dodgers Game 1 *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -135 

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers are now 6-0 in the postseason and have barely had to sweat.  And now we are getting a great price on them in Game 1 of this series with ace Walker Buehler on the rubber.  Max Fried’s 7-0 record for the Braves has him overvalued in my opinion.  He only averages 5.2 innings per start, which isn’t very good for an ace, so the Dodgers should get into the Braves bullpen early.  Fried has only averaged 4 innings in his last 3 outings.  Fried has never beaten the Dodgers, going 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them.  Buehler is 2-0 and sports a 0.69 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against the Braves, yielding only 12 base runners in 17 1/3 innings.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Heat/Lakers Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Miami +6 

The Key: The Miami Heat still haven’t made more 3-pointers than the Lakers in any game this series despite being the 2nd-best 3-point shooting team in the NBA.  And they’ve managed to hang tough despite the Lakers shooting better than they did all season in this series.  The Heat are just the definition of team basketball, which has allowed them to overcome the two superstars of the Lakers in LeBron James and Anthony Davis.  I’m banking on them continuing to overcome the odds again in Game 6 tonight.  And hopefully they can make more 3-pointers than the Lakers in one game this series, which would almost assuredly result in a cover and possible outright win.  Take Miami. 

6* Dolphins/49ers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami +9

The Key: The Miami Dolphins haven’t lost by more than 10 points this season despite being 1-3.  Those 3 losses came to the Bills, Seahawks and Patriots who have combined to go 10-2.  They were in every game, and they will certainly be in this game against the 49ers, who are worse than all 3 of those teams due to all their injuries.  And the 49ers have been terrible as home favorites over the years.  They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of -6.5 or more, which includes outright losses to both the Cardinals and Eagles this season.  Their only 2 wins this year came against the Giants and Jets, and I think most can agree those are the two worst teams in the NFL.  Take Miami.

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Las Vegas Raiders +13

The Key: The Raiders have looked very good against a very tough schedule this year.  They are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0.  They beat the Panthers on the road in Week 1, upset the Saints at home in Week 2, and then lost to the Patriots and Bills.  But they had their chances to win both of those games as they were only outgained by 31 yards by the Patriots and outgained the Bills by 46 yards.  I liked the fire I saw from QB Derek Carr after that loss to the Bills saying he’s tired of losing, and this team is too good for this.  Look for the Raiders to give the Chiefs a run for their money this week.  This is a tough scheduling spot for the Chiefs.  They are coming off 2 straight huge Monday Night Football wins over the Ravens and Patriots.  They were outgained by 34 yards by the Patriots last week, who were playing without Cam Newton too.  And now they are on a short week here.  You’re paying a tax to back the Chiefs now, and the tax is too steep this week.  Take Las Vegas.

6* LA/Washington NFC *CA$H COW* on Washington +7.5 

The Key: The Washington Football Team has new life with Kyle Allen replacing Dwayne Haskins.  Haskins was the worst starting quarterback in the NFL and turned the ball over too many times for Washington to have any chance of winning games.  The only game he didn’t turn it over they upset the Eagles.  Allen can only be an upgrade.  The Rams have one of the toughest early travel schedules that I’ve ever seen.  They have to go out East for the 3rd time in 4 weeks here after previously traveling to Philadelphia and Buffalo.  This is an early start time and a 10 AM body clock game for the Rams, which is always tough for West Coast teams.  Especially when having to do it 3 times in 4 weeks.  And the Rams showed signs of fatigue last week as they had to fight tooth and nail to beat the Giants 17-9 as 13-point favorites.  Their offense only had 240 total yards in that win.  And now they are up against another underrated defense here in Washington that should have Chase Young back healthy this week.  The Rams are 2-13 ATS after a home game in which they won SU but did not cover the spread.  Take Washington. 

6* Miami/Clemson ACC *CA$H COW* on Miami +14

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes finally have a QB in Houston transfer D’Eriq King.  The rest has fallen into place as the Hurricanes are off to a 3-0 start this year.  They beat a pesky UAB team 31-14, had no trouble in beating a good Louisville team 47-34 on the road, and blasted Florida State 52-10 at home.  Now the Hurricanes have had 2 weeks to get ready for Clemson after having a bye last week.  Meanwhile, Clemson played Virginia last week in a 41-23 win, failing to cover as 28-point favorites.  And they weren’t very impressive at all as they only outgained Virginia by 49 yards.  This is easily Clemson’s toughest test yet after also playing lowly Wake Forest and The Citadel.  The Tigers always come close to getting upset every year in one game, and this appears to be the one.  King is completing 67% of his passes with 6 TD and 0 INT, while also rushing for 157 yards and a score.  He is the game changer the Hurricanes have been missing, and he’s the reason they have a chance to hang with Clemson Saturday.  Take Miami.

6* FSU/Notre Dame ACC *CA$H COW* on Florida State +21

The Key: You won’t find the Florida State Seminoles at a better price than they are right now.  That’s because they are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS to start the year.  But this team still has a ton of talent, and should have more continuity now under first-year head coach Mike Norvell.  Notre Dame only beat an 0-4 Duke team 27-13 in the opener.  So if Duke can hang around, Florida State certainly can.  The Fighting Irish are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more.  Notre Dame is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games off 2 consecutive home wins.  The price is right to back the Seminoles.  Take Florida State.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Kansas State +9

The Key: The Kansas State Wildcats are now 2-0 in Big 12 play.  They upset Oklahoma on the road as 28-point dogs and handled their business in a 31-21 win over Texas Tech at home.  Now the Wildcats continue to lack the respect they deserve as 9-point dogs at TCU.  The Horned Frogs are getting respect because they upset Texas on the road.  But Texas trailed Texas Tech by 15 points with under 3 minutes left in regulation, so they aren’t very good.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as road dogs.  The dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Horned Frogs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off an upset win as a road dog.  The Wildcats are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as underdogs.  Take Kansas State.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +7.5

The Key: The Miami Heat just got back Bam Adebayo from injury.  They gave won Game 3 outright as 9-point dogs and gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 4 in a 6-point loss.  And now they are catching 7.5-points in Game 5, which is too much.  The Lakers are not the better shooting team in this series, but they have somehow overcome the odds and outshot the Lakers from beyond the arc.  They have 59 made 3-pointers while the Heat only have 45 for the series.  You’d think that would even out as the series goes on.  Maybe this is finally the game where the Heat make more 3’s than they do.  Either way, they will fight scratch and claw for 4 quarters to try and stay alive, and that should be good enough to stay within the number tonight and possibly win outright.  Take Miami.

6* Yankees/Rays Game 5 *CA$H COW* on New York -151 

The Key: We’re backing Gerrit Cole in this winner-take-all Game 5 tonight.  He is on 3 days’ rest after pitching in Game 1 while Tyler Glasnow is only on 2 days’ rest after pitching in Game 2.  Cole was much more effective in his Game 1 start than Glasnow was in Game 2.  And that will prove to be the case again tonight as Cole shuts down the Rays and the Yankees stay hot at the plate in Game 5.  Take New York. 

7* Bucs/Bears NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay -3.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are averaging 32.3 PPG in their last 3 games, all victories by 7 points or more.  And they have a huge edge on offense here over the hapless Bears, who can’t decide whether Nick Foles or Mitch Trubisky is the man to lead their offense.  They have a good defense, but their offense just isn’t good.  They only managed 3 points for the first 58 minutes against the Colts last week in Foles’ first start with the team.  And it’s not going to get much easier against this improved, fast Tampa Bay defense tonight.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Their 3 wins this year came against the Lions, Giants and Falcons, three teams that are a combined 1-11.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Tulane/Houston NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 59

The Key: Michael Pratt took over early in the 1st quarter for the terrible Keon Howard and promptly led Tulane to 66 points in a 66-24 victory over Southern Miss last time out.  It’s a big upgrade at the QB position with his dual-threat skills.  And Tulane should keep it rolling offensively against Houston this week.  The Cougars have an offensive genius as a head coach in Dana Holgorsen, and he is working with 10 returning starters on offense and a terrible defense.  There should be some offensive fireworks in this one.  These teams combined for 69 points last year and 65 points two years ago, so this one should have no problem topping the 59-point total.  The Green Wave are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games after scoring 20 points or more at halftime in 2 straight games.  The OVER is 10-4 in Cougars last 14 conference games.  Take the OVER.

6* Rays/Yankees Game 4 *CA$H COW* on OVER 8.5

The Key: The New York Yankees and their opponents have combined for 12 or more runs in all 5 postseason games and an average of 14 RPG.  The Yankees have a dangerous lineup now that everyone is back healthy.  The Rays have also shown some life offensively by scoring a combined 26 runs in their last 4 games.  Jordan Montgomery has a 5.11 ERA in 10 starts this year and the Rays should get after him.  The Rays will make this a bullpen game.  Montgomery has a 5.14 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts against the Rays.  Take the OVER.

7* MLB Total of the Week on Yankees/Rays OVER 8.5

The Key: The New York Yankees and their opponents have combined for 12 or more runs in all 4 postseason games and an average of 14.5 RPG.  The Yankees have a dangerous lineup now that everyone is back healthy and they have just been pounding the ball led by Giancarlo Stanton, who has 5 HR in 4 games.  The Rays have also shown some life offensively with a combined 18 runs scored in their last 3 games.  And they should get after Masahiro Tanaka, who has a 7.20 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Tanaka has yielded 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in his last 2 starts against the Rays this year.  Charlie Morton has a 4.32 ERA in 12 lifetime starts against the Yankees.  Morton sports a 4.74 ERA in 9 starts this year.  Take the OVER.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +7.5

The Key: The Miami Heat showed their resiliency by winning Game 3 outright as 9-point underdogs, 115-104.  Jimmy Butler had a 40-point triple double and willed this team to victory.  And now the Heat should be getting Bam Adebayo back from injury from Game 3. The Lakers made more 3-pointers than the Heat for a 3rd straight games, which was very unlikely when you consider the Heat are a great shooting team while the Lakers are a terrible one.  It’s now 45 to 34 the edge in 3-pointers made for the Lakers in this series.  Look for the Heat to narrow that gap in Game 4 tonight and come away with a cover and possibly another outright victory.  Take Miami.

6* Astros/A’s Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Oakland -104

The Key: The Oakland A’s are a resilient bunch.  They are 43-16 in their last 59 games off a loss and staved off 2 elimination games against the White Sox last series.  They will bounce back in Game 2 today.  The A’s are 39-12 in their last 51 against left-handed starters and will pound unproven lefty Framber Valdez today.  Sean Manaea sports a 3.26 ERA in 13 lifetime starts against the Astros and will shut them down.  Take Oakland.

7* Falcons/Packers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +7

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are desperate for a win after opening 0-3 this year.  I like backing desperate teams.  They should be 2-1 as they blew a 15-point lead against the Cowboys and a 16-point lead against the Bears both in the 4th quarter.  But since they are 0-3 we are getting a good price on them.  The Packers are 3-0 and need to be faded this week, especially since Aaron Rodgers may not have Devante Adams and Allen Lazard.  Lazard is for sure out, while Adams sat out last week and is questionable with a hamstring. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  This is the role they are good in.  Take Atlanta.

6* Astros/A’s Game 1 *CA$H COW* on Oakland -130

The Key: The Oakland A’s have the edge on the rubber tonight with Chris Bassitt over Lance McCullers Jr.  Bassitt sports a 2.19 ERA in his 12 starts this year and a 0.44 ERA in his last 3 outings.  McCullers Jr. sports a 7.33 ERA in his 6 road starts this year and has always been a train wreck on the road throughout his career.  Bassitt sports a 3.66 ERA in 8 lifetime starts against Houston.  McCullers Jr. has a 4.04 ERA in 9 lifetime starts against the A’s.  Take Oakland.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +9.5

The Key: The Miami Heat will be laying it all on the line tonight.  This is a must-win after falling behind 0-2 in this series.  And this has been a resilient team all year as they have gone 23-8 ATS following a loss this season.  The Lakers have made 31 3-pointers in this series while the Heat have only made 22.  That’s really the difference in the series, and it has been a big upset thus far because the Heat are the way better shooting team when you look at their numbers compared to the Lakers coming into this series.  It will even back out tonight as the Heat have their best shooting game of the series.  Take Miami.

6* Saints/Lions NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +4.5

The Key: Drew Brees is just a shell of his former self.  He has lost a ton of arm strength and that has been on display this season.  They were fortunate to beat the Bucs in Week 1, then their defense got gashed in 24-34 and 30-37 losses to the Raiders and Packers.  They have impact injuries on both offense and defense.  Matthew Stafford is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL.  He guided the Lions to a gutsy 26-23 win at Arizona last week.  He did everything he could to avoid a 23-6 collapse against the Bears in Week 1 by driving the Lions down and throwing a perfect pass that was dropped in the end zone that would have been a game-winner.  And Stafford just got his favorite receiver in Kenny Golloday back from a 2-game absence last week against the Cardinals, so he now has his full compliment of weapons.  Take Detroit.

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Seahawks/Dolphins OVER 54

The Key: The Seahawks are 3-0 to the OVER in 2020 with combined scores of 63, 65 and 69 points.  This one should see 60-plus too.  Russell Wilson has been the MVP of the league thus far in leading the Seahawks to 37 PPG.  They have really opened up their passing game this year and let Wilson shine finally with 2 of the best weapons in the NFL in Metcalf and Lockett.  But Seattle gives up 28.7 PPG and 497.3 YPG defensively.  They have injuries all over their defense and are a far cry from the legion of boom D they had back in the day.  Ryan Fitzpatrick will keep the Dolphins in this game and match Wilson score for score.  He completed 90% of his passes against the Jaguars last week.  He put up 28 points on the Bills and 31 points on the Jaguars the last 2 weeks, and he should reach or exceed both of those numbers again here.  Seattle is 6-0 OVER when eh total is 49.5 or higher over the last 3 years.  Miami is 8-1 OVER as a home dog of 7 points or less over the last 3 years.  Miami is 12-0 OVER in its last 12 against good rush defenses that give up 70 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Take the OVER.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +21

The Key: Vanderbilt showed they are going to have one of the best defenses in the SEC when they only lost 12-17 to Texas A&M as a 31.5-point dog last week.  They returned all 11 starters on D, and Pro Football Focus actually graded their D-Line as the best unit in the country after that performance.  LSU’s defense was shredded for 44 points and 623 passing yards in their upset loss to Mississippi State last week.  This is an LSU team that lost 15 players to the NFL in the offseason.  That’s simply irreplaceable.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* Texas Tech/K-State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State -2

The Key: “We better put it behind us in a. Hurry or we’re going to not be ready on Saturday,” Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman said. “What you did today is great, but it pales in comparison to what you can do the next day.  Right now, we have to move on.  That’s been our mantra for a year-plus.  Stack great days and don’t worry about yesterday, worry about today.  Let’s win this dang day.”  I love the quotes coming from Klieman leading up to this game against Texas Tech.  And I think with the veteran leadership the Wildcats have, they can avoid the dreaded letdown off their incredible upset of Oklahoma as 28-point dogs last week.  I think getting humbled in their opener by Arkansas State, losing outright as 15-point dogs will make it easier to avoid that letdown.  Texas Tech blew a 15-point lead in the final minutes and lost in OT to Texas last week.  That’s harder to recover from.  And remember Texas Tech only beat Houston Baptist 35-33 as a 40.5-point favorite in their opener.  The fact of the matter is Kansas State is the better team in this matchup, and if they just show up with their ‘B Game’ they will win and cover.  The Red Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a SU loss.  Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 road games.  The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.  The Wildcats are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 matchups with Texas Tech.  Take Kansas State.

6* Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Arkansas State -3

The Key: Arkansas State has been impressive against two tough opponents this year.  They only lost by 13 on the road to Memphis and upset Kansas State as 15-point road underdogs.  Then Kansas State went on to beat Oklahoma outright as a 28-point dog last week.  And keep in mind the Red Wolves didn’t have 10 starters for that game against K-State due to Covid-19.  Now they should be back to full strength this week and blast Coastal Carolina, which has played a much easier schedule in beating Kansas and Campbell thus far.  The Red Wolves have won all 3 matchups with Coastal Carolina over the last 3 years by an average of 21 PPG.  Coastal Carolina is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Take Arkansas State.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on West Virginia ML +115

The Key: Neal Brown is in his 2nd season at West Virginia.  They only had 7 starters back last year in his first season and still managed to win 5 games, including 3 Big 12 road games, which is no small feat.  But now Brown has 14 starters back this year and this should be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Baylor is the team rebuilding with just 9 starters back for new head coach Dave Aranda.  The Bears’ 47-14 win over Kansas last week was so misleading.  They only outgained Kansas by 24 yards and managed just 352 total yards.  But they got 2 special teams touchdowns.  West Virginia played Oklahoma State much tougher than the 13-27 final score would indicate last week as well.  The Mountaineers outgained the Cowboys by 11 yards and held them to just 342 total yards.  West Virginia only lost 14-17 at Baylor as 17.5-point dogs last year.  It’s revenge time as WVU looks to improve to 5-0 SU in home matchups with Baylor since joining the Big 12.  Take West Virginia on the Money Line.

6* South Carolina/Florida SEC *CA$H COW* on South Carolina +17

The Key: This has been a very closely contested series between South Carolina and Florida through in the year.  Each of the last 7 matchups were decided by 13 points or fewer, so with this 17-point spread I like the price we are getting on the Gamecocks.  South Carolina only lost 27-31 to a very good Tennessee team last week.  Florida beat Ole Miss 51-35, but gave up 613 total yards in the process and only outgained the Rebels by 29 yards.  That’s an Ole Miss team in transition with a new head coach in Lane Kiffin.  The Gamecocks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take South Carolina.

7* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Miami Heat +10

The Key: The Miami Heat are catching double-digits against the Lakers tonight and they shouldn’t be.  This is a huge game for them in this series.  And this is a 5.5-point adjustment from Game 1 where the Heat were +4.5 dogs to close.  I realize Adebayo and Dragic are unlikely to play, but the Heat have the depth to overcome it.  They can go small and give the Lakers some problems.  They are the best shooting team in the NBA from the 3-point line which is a big reason why they have made it this far.  But the Lakers won the 3-point line in Game 1, which is a huge upset.  The Lakers were 15-of-38 while the Heat were only 11-of-35.  Look for a role reversal here.  The Heat shoot 37.4% from 3 on the season and the Lakers only shoot 35% as one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA.  The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games off an ATS loss.  Take Miami.

6* Brewers/Dodgers Game 2 *BAILOUT* on UNDER 7.5

The Key: The two best starters for the Dodgers and Brewers are going tonight after the Dodgers won 4-2 yesterday.  Clayton Kershaw is 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 10 starts this year.  Kershaw is 7-6 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 17 lifetime starts against the Brewers.  Brandon Woodruff is 3-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 13 starts this year for the Brewers.  Milwaukee is 17-3 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 3 years.  Woodruff is 10-2 UNDER In all games this season.  Take the UNDER.

7* Broncos/Jets AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 40.5

The Key: Both the New York Jets and Denver Broncos have been up against some very good defenses this season.  The Jets have faced the Bills, 49ers and Colts while the Broncos have faced the Titans, Steelers and Bucs.  This is the chance for both offenses to open things up against the worst defenses that they will have faced yet.  The Broncos give up 23.3 PPG and 380 YPG and have injuries all over their defense, most notably to Miller, Casey and Bouye.  The Jets give up 31.3 PPG and 372 YPG and have just been gashed defensively.  This is a very low total for today’s NFL and there’s definitely some value with the OVER.  Take the OVER.

6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers are the best team in baseball at 43-17 on the season.  They are scoring 5.8 RPG and giving up just 3.5 RPG this year, so they are outscoring opponents by 2.3 RPG on average.  And I’ll take them on the Run Line here Wednesday.  Walker Buehler is 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 8 starts this year and the Dodgers have gone 7-1 in those starts.  Buehler is 1-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in 4 home starts.  He sports a 2.89 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against the Brewers.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +5

The Key: The Miami Heat are 12-3 SU & 12-3 ATS in the postseason.  They play great defense, have tremendous shooting, and have the go-to guy in Jimmy Butler to get it down down the stretch when the games are tight.  They match up well with the Lakers because they have guys who can handle Anthony Davis and LeBron James defensively.  And the Lakers just don’t have the depth outside those two superstars to match up with the Heat.  This line is way off in Game 1 tonight with the Heat catching 5 points.  Take Miami.

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Minnesota Twins -150

The Key: The Minnesota Twins have the edge on the rubber tonight with Jose Berrios over Lance McCullers Jr.  Berrios is 3-3 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 6 home starts this year.  The knock on McCullers Jr. has been that while he has been great at home throughout his career, he has been awful on the road.  That has proven to be the case again in 2020 as McCullers Jr. is 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 6 road starts this year.  He is also 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against the Twins.  The Twins are 23-8 at home this year, while the Astros are 10-21 on the road.  Houston is 1-10 in road games after 4 or more consecutive road games this year.  Take Minnesota.

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Minnesota Twins -160

The Key: The Minnesota Twins have edges everywhere over the Houston Astros, who got into the playoffs with a losing 29-31 record.  They especially have the edge on the rubber tonight with Kenta Maeda over Zack Greinke.  Maeda is 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 11 starts this year, and 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.55 WHIP in 5 home starts.  Zack Greinke is 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA in 12 starts, 0-2 with a 4.28 ERA in 5 road starts and 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Greinke is 4-9 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 20 lifetime starts against the Twins.  The Twins are 23-7 at home this year.  The Astros are 6-20 in their last 26 road games.  Take Minnesota.

7* Chiefs/Ravens MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -3.5

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens have blown the doors off their first 2 opponents with a 38-6 win over Cleveland and a 33-16 win at Houston.  The Kansas City Chiefs also beat the Texans 34-20, but they only outgained them by 9 yards in that contest.  And the Chiefs were outgained by 65 yards last week in a fortunate 23-20 (OT) win over the Chargers in which they gave up 479 total yards to rookie QB Justin Herbert and company.  The Ravens have lost their 2 matchups with the Chiefs by a combined 8 points over the last 2 seasons. It’s revenge time here as the Ravens prove they are the best team in the AFC Monday night.  Take Baltimore.

6* Celtics/Heat Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Miami +3.5

The Key: The Miami Heat are 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS in the playoffs.  Every time they have lost they have bounced back with a win and cover.  They are a resilient team and realize they need to step on Boston’s throat after letting them win Game 5.  I think Jimmy Butler and company will rise to the occasion in Game 6 and close out this series.  The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games off an ATS win.  The Heat are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games off a SU loss.  The Heat are also 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games off an ATS loss.  Take Miami.

6* Lions/Cardinals NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +6

The Key: Teams failing to cover by 5 PPG or more who are also 0-2 ATS have gone 57-28-1 ATS in Week 3.  Teams like the Lions are undervalued after a poor start to the season.  They blew a 23-6 lead against the Bears in Week 1 and a 14-3 lead against the Packers in Week 2.  They aren’t as bad as their 0-2 record, and the Cardinals aren’t as good as their 2-0 record, beating a poor Washington team and taking advantage of a banged-up 49ers team.  Bets on road dogs or PK who allowed 335 or more total yards per game last season, after allowing 450 yards or more last game are 24-4 ATS since 1983.  The Lions are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 road games off a loss by 14 points or more.  Take Detroit.

7* Cowboys/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +5

The Key: Seattle’s defense is way too poor to trust the Seahawks to be laying 5 points to the Dallas Cowboys, who have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  That was on display last week when the Cowboys racked up 40 points and 570 total yards on the Falcons.  The Seahawks give up 27.5 PPG and 485 YPG this season.  The Cowboys are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games after trailing at halftime by 14 points or more last game.  Take Dallas.

6* MLB Interleague *CA$H COW* on New York Yankees -1.5 (+101)

The Key: The New York Yankees have a lot at stake in their final game of the season.  They can improve their seeding with a win.  The Marlins don’t have much to play for and are just happy to have made the postseason, especially after going just 2-5 in their last 7 games overall.  The Yankees will hang a big number on Jose Urena, who is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 21 starts this year.  That should allow them to cover the -1.5 run line even with rookie Clarke Schmidt on the mound.  The Yankees are 18-2 as a home favorite of -150 or more this season and winning by 4.3 RPG.  Take New York on the Run Line.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Minnesota Vikings +3

The Key: Teams failing to cover by 5 PPG or more who are also 0-2 ATS have gone 57-28-1 ATS in Week 3.  Teams like the Vikings are undervalued after a poor start to the season.  They go from being favored by nearly a FG at home against the Packers in their opener to now 3-point dogs to the Titans in Week 3, basically a 6-point adjustment.  It’s time to buy low on the Vikings, and sell high on the 2-0 Titans who have beaten 2 bad teams in the Broncos and Jaguars by a combined 5 points.  The Vikings are better than both those teams and will likely win this game outright to get back on track.  Take Minnesota.

6* Nuggets/Lakers Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Denver +5

The Key: The Nuggets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff games when trailing in a series.  They came back from 3-1 deficits in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs this year.  And they certainly believe they can still come back and win this series after giving the Lakers all they wanted and more through the first 4 games.  Take Denver.

6* NC State/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia Tech -6.5

The Key: The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most experienced teams in the country with 18 starters back this year.  NC State went 4-8 lsat year and has 15 starters back.  But the defense is clearly atrocious after giving up 42 points to Wake Forest last week.  Virginia Tech should be able to score at will and offer a lot more resistance on D than Wake did.  NC State is 1-8 ATS when the total is 56.5 to 63 over the last 3 years.  The Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as underdogs.  NC State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a win.    The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Virginia Tech.

6* Vanderbilt/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Vanderbilt +30.5

The Key: Texas A&M is getting too much love early in the season ranked as a Top 10 team off an 8-5 season.  Jimbo Fisher is doing a good job recruiting but hasn’t put it together.  No question the Aggies will be good this year, but not 30.5 points better than Vanderbilt, which returns all 11 starters on defense and should have their best stop unit of the Derek Mason era.  The Aggies didn’t beat a single SEC team by more than 24 points last year.  Vanderbilt is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games with a total between 45.5 and 49 points.  Such a low total definitely favors the +30.5 underdog.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* FSU/Miami ACC *CA$H COW* on Miami -11

The Key: Miami finally has its QB in Houston transfer D’Eriq King and the Hurricanes look the part thus far.  They beat UAB 31-14 in their opener, and that’s a UAB team that just beat South Alabama 42-10 on Thursday.  That’s a South Alabama team that upset Southern Miss and also nearly upset Tulane.  Then Miami beat Louisville 47-34 last week with 3 scoring plays of 47 or more yards.  This is a very explosive offense with King, and the defense has plenty of studs to shut teams down.  FSU was thoroughly outplayed in its opener, a 13-16 home loss to Georgia Tech as 13-point favorites.  The Yellow Jackets outgained them by 131 yards.  Now FSU will be without its new head coach in Mike Norvell due to Covid-19.  Miami has won three straight over FSU, including a 27-10 road win last year.  The Hurricanes are even better this season with King.  Take Miami.

6* MLB Interleague *CA$H COW* on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+128)

The Key: The Chicago White Sox are 13-0 against left-handed starters in 2020 and scoring 6.9 RPG.  They get to face lefty Jon Lester for a 2nd time this season.  The 1st on August 21st was a disaster for Lester.  He yielded 8 runs and 4 homers in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-1 win for the White Sox.  Dane Dunning is 2-0 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 6 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in 3 home starts.  Take the White Sox on the Run Line.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia -4

The Key: Virginia has 15 starters back from a team that beat Duke 48-14 last year.  Duke lost by 14 to Notre Dame and by 20 to Boston College to start the year, so it’s clear the Blue Devils aren’t any better than they were last season.  This is a very short number for the defending Coastal Division champs to be laying to open their season.  Take Virginia.

6* Mississippi State/LSU SEC *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +17

The Key: LSU lost a record 14 players to the NFL.  You can make that 15 now with receiver Ja’Marr Chase and his 1,780 yards and 20 TD from last season deciding to sit out and get ready for the NFL.  I just can’t see LSU being on their game in the opener with all that they have lost.  I know the situation isn’t great for Mississippi State either with a new head coach in Mike Leach, but at least their an experienced team with 11 returning starters and plenty of senior leadership with 13 projected starters being seniors.  I love the addition of Stanford transfer KJ Kostello at QB to run Leach’s Air Raid system.  This number just feels a bit too wide with all that LSU lost.  Take Mississippi State.

7* Heat/Celtics Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -3

The Key: The Boston Celtics have responded every time they’ve had some adversity.  They won Game 7 against the Raptors, and they won Game 3 after falling into an 0-2 hole to the Heat.  With their season on the line tonight they will respond again.  The Celtics are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 playoff games as a favorite.  Boston is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games off an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 18-9 ATS off a SU loss this season.  The Celtics are 20-11 ATS when revenging a loss this year.  Take Boston.

6* MLB Interleague *MOUND MISMATCH* on Minnesota Twins -140

The Key: The Twins have a huge edge on the rubber today with Jose Berrios over Tyler Mahle.  Berrios is 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 5 home starts this year.  Mahle is 0-2 with a 6.39 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 3 road starts.  The Twins are 22-5 at home this year. The Reds are 1-8 in road games after allowing 2 runs or less this year.  Mahle is 1-12 as a road dog of +100 or higher over the last 2 years.  Take Minnesota.

7* Dolphins/Jaguars AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins hung 28 points on the Buffalo Bills last week and gave them everything they could handle.  They also hung tough with the New England Patriots on the road.  They are going to be able to score at will on this awful Jaguars defense that gave up 33 points to the Titans last week and that is giving up 400 YPG this year.  The Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games off a SU loss.  The Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as favorites.  Bets on road dogs who gave up 335 or more YPG last year after allowing 450 or more yards in their previous game are 24-4 ATS since 1983.  Take Miami.

6* UAB/South Alabama NCAAF *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +7

The Key: South Alabama won outright as a 15-point dogs at Southern Miss in its opener and only lost 24-27 as a 10-point dog to Tulane in their next game.  And they led 24-6 over Tulane and should have won.  I actually think this is a step down in class for South Alabama against UAB Thursday night.  UAB only beat Central Arkansas by 10 as a 21.5-point favorite and gave up 35 points to that FCS team.  UAB also lost by 17 to Miami as a 15.5-point dog.  UAB suffered a big blow when starting QB Tyler Johnson hurt his shoulder against Miami and backup Bryce Lucero came in and completed just 33% of his 12 attempts.  Lucero is a redshirt freshman and cannot be trusted.  South Alabama is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games.  The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs.  The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.  Take South Alabama.

6* Thursday MLB *UPSET SPECIAL* on Chicago White Sox +127

The Key: The Chicago White Sox just lost the AL Central lead for the first time since August.  They will be hungry for a win after dropping 4 straight, including the first 3 games of this series to Cleveland, so they want to avoid the sweep after losing to walk-off HR’s each of the past 2 days.  Dallas Kuechel comes in to stop the bleeding today.  Kuechel is 6-2 with a 2.04 ERA in 10 starts this year, 3-1 with a 1.62 ERA in 6 road starts, and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Kuechel is 4-1 with a 2.50 ERA in 8 previous starts against the Indians.  The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  Take Chicago.

7* Celtics/Heat Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +3

The Key: This game is likely to go down to the wire and it’s clear the Miami Heat are better in clutch moments in these playoffs.  So I’ll trust them here catching 3 points.  They had a chance to win late in Game 3 after taking the first 2 games of this series despite shooting terribly.  The Heat shot 38.8% in Game 3 compared to 48.2% for Boston.  There won’t be that big of a disparity again, and the Heat certainly won’t shoot as poorly as they did from the 3-point line, where they were 12-of-44 (27.3%).  The Heat are 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in the playoffs this year.  The Heat are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games off a loss.  The Heat are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  Take Miami.

6* AL Central *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-135)

The Key: The Minnesota Twins have won 3 straight to pull within 0.5 games of the Chicago White Sox for 1st place in the AL Central.  They keep their momentum going today against the Detroit Tigers, who are 5-15 in their last 20 games overall.  The Twins have a big edge on the rubber in this one.  Kenta Maeda is 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 10 starts this year, and 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.52 WHIP in 4 home starts.  Casey Mize is 0-2 with a 6.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 6 starts for Detroit.  Mize is 0-0 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 2 starts against the Twins this year.  The Twins are 15-3 in home games against right-handed starters this year and winning by 2.3 RPG on average.  The Twins are 21-4 vs. an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 5.90 or worse over the last 2 years, and outscoring these teams by 3.0 RPG on average.  Take Minnesota on the Run Line.

6* AL West *CA$H COW* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-115)

The Key: The Houston Astros are fighting to make the postseason and have won 3 of their last 4 coming in.  The Mariners have been eliminated from postseason contention and are 2-6 in their last 8 games overall with all 6 losses coming by 2 runs or more.  The Astros have the edge on the rubber today with Zack Greinke, who is 3-2 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 11 starts this year.  Greinke is 7-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 13 lifetime starts against the Mariners.  Nike Margevicius is 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 6 starts this year, and 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Greinke is 59-17 as a favorite of -175 to -250 lifetime with his teams winning by 2.1 RPG on average.  Take Houston on the Run Line.

7* Nuggets/Lakers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +6.5

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are very comfortable being down in a series.  They gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 2 and probably should have won, but lost at the buzzer.  They’ll come back in Game 3 with their best effort of the series.  The Nuggets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games when trailing in the series.  Take Denver.

6* MLB Interleague *CA$H COW* on St. Louis Cardinals -113

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the St. Louis Cardinals today as they try and make the playoffs.  They also look to bounce back from a loss to the Royals as a big favorite yesterday.  Austin Gomber has only made 2 starts this year, but he has a 0.00 ERA as he has fired 5 2/3 shutout innings for the Cardinals.  Brady Singer is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 3 home starts for the Royals this year.  Gomber pitched 5 shutout innings in his lone lifetime start against the Royals in a 7-0 victory.  The Royals are 29-72 in their last 101 home games against a team with a winning record.  Take St. Louis.

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -134

The Key: The Houston Astros are fighting to make the postseason as they embark on the final week of the season.  They have a great chance considering they play the 2 worst teams in their division on the Mariners and Rangers.  The Astros have the edge on the rubber today over Seattle.  Lance McCullers is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  McCullers is 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 lifetime starts against the Mariners.  Marco Gonzalez has never beaten the Astros, going 0-5 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts against them.  His teams are 0-7 in those starts.  Take Houston.

7* Saints/Raiders MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +5.5

The Key: All the playmakers the Raiders added in the offseason paid off in a big way against the Panthers in Week 1.  Las Vegas scored 34 points and will be a tough team to stop offensively all season.  Their defense is better than it showed against the Panthers and played well in giving up only 15 points through 3 quarters, but Carolina made a comeback in the 4th.  The Saints did not beat the Bucs as badly as the 34-23 final would suggest.  They only had 271 total yards but forced 3 turnovers and didn’t give the ball away once.  They slowed down without Michael Thomas, who suffered an ankle injury in that game and is now out this week.  There’s just no replacing what Thomas does for this offense.  He had 149 receptions for 1,725 yards and 9 TD in 2019 after having 125 receptions for 1,405 yards and 9 TD in 2018.  He is arguably the best receiver in the NFL.  Take Las Vegas.

6* Nuggets/Lakers Game 2 *Total* Annihilator on OVER 213.5

The Key: The OVER is 21-7-2 in the last 30 matchups in this series.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 matchups with combined scores of 240, 245, 236 and 232 points.  This is about as easy as it gets after they combined for 240 in Game 1.  They might not score that many points, but they will score enough to top this very low 213.5-point total.  Take the OVER.

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The Key: The New York Yankees are 10-0 in their last 10 games overall with 8 wins by 2 runs or more.  They have scored a combined 57 runs in their last 5 games and are getting healthy at the right time.  The Red Sox are 19-34 with nothing to play for.  Deivi Garcia has been superb for the Yankees, going 2-1 with a 3.28 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 4 starts, including 1-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 3 road starts.  The Yankees are 12-0 in their last 12 matchups with Boston with 11 of those wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Take New York on the Run Line.

7* AFC South Game of the Month on Jacksonville Jaguars +9

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars were singled-out as the worst team in the NFL in the offseason by most media outlets.  They are taking it personally.  They respond with a 27-20 win over Indianapolis as 7-point dogs in Week 1.  I was on them in that game, and I’m back on them again this week as 9-point dogs to the Tennessee Titans.  Gardner Minshew continued proving his doubters wrong, completing 19-of-20 passes against the Colts with his only incompletion being a catchable ball.  With Minshew at QB, they will be able to compete.  The Titans are over-hyped after making the AFC Championship last year.  They barely beat the Broncos 16-14 on Monday Night Football, which means they are now on a short week while the Jaguars have an extra day to get ready.  The Titans are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.  The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 September games.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Lions/Packers NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +6.5

The Key: The Detroit Lions just blew a 23-6 lead over the Chicago Bears in the 4th quarter. They are the kinds of close losses dating back to last season, and they don’t want to be known as the team that cannot finish this year.  Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder Sunday against the Packers.  And since the Lions have such a knack for losing close games, getting 6.5 points with them here is a nice price.  The Packers are over-hyped after beating up on a young, banged-up Minnesota defense last week, winning 43-34.  The Lions will offer a lot more resistance than the Vikings did on both sides of the ball.  Detroit is 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last 6 meetings with Green Bay with the 2 losses both coming last year by 1 and 3 points.  They have revenge in mind in this first matchup of 2020.  Take Detroit.

6* Rams/Eagles NFC *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia PK

The Key: Philadelphia blew a 17-0 lead against Washington last week and was outscored 27-17 the rest the way.  The offense stalled, and Carson Wentz had a poor game as he just didn’t have any time and was sacked 8 times.  Injuries on the offensive line contributed to it.  But the Eagles got good injury news this week as both G Jason Peters and T Lane Johnson will play Sunday, plus they get RB Mile Sanders back after missing last week.  Johnson means everything to the O-Line.  The Eagles are 36-17 with Lane under Doug Pederson, but just 6-12 without him.  The Rams played good enough to win over the Cowboys, who had all kinds of injuries hit their defense last week.  The Rams won that game 20-17.  Now they faced a pissed off Eagles team, and the challenge will be much tougher for them this week.  I love the price getting the Eagles as a pick ‘em at home as I still think they are the better team than the Rams.  Take Philadelphia.

6* Celtics/Heat Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Boston -3

The Key: The Boston Celtics are in must-win mode here in Game 3.  They did themselves no favors in Game 2 by turning the ball over 20 times and lost 101-106 after blowing a big lead.  They also lost in overtime in Game 1, so this is a really close series.  I think the intensity level the Celtics play with compared to the Heat will be massive in this game.  Look for the Heat to relax just enough to allow the Celtics to win and cover this game.  Boston is 19-6 ATS when playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days this year.  The Celtics are 46-25 ATS in their last 71 games off 2 straight losses by 6 points or less.  Boston is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games off an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 playoff games as favorites.  Take Boston.

6* Wake Forest/NC State ACC *CA$H COW* on NC State -1

The Key: NC State is a prime bounce-back candidate this year off a disappointing 4-8 season.  The Wolfpack had won 9 games each of the previous 2 seasons.  But they lost 14 players from those 2 teams combined to the NFL.  So last year was a rebuilding season.  Now the Wolfpack have 15 starters back this year and a ton of talent, especially on offense where 10 starters are back.  Wake Forest looks like the rebuilding team this year.  They went 8-5 last year but now only return 11 starters, including just 3 on offense.  They lose their QB, leading rusher and leading receiver.  NC State wants to avenge its embarrassing 10-44 loss to Wake Forest last year, and you can bet they’ve been using it as motivation all offseason.  The Wolfpack will be ready to play at home Saturday.  The home team is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 matchups.  Take NC State.

7* Miami/Louisville ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville -2.5

The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have 16 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last year in Scott Satterfield’s first season coming over from Appalachian State.  They are loaded everywhere and it showed last week as they outgained Western Kentucky by 239 yards and put up 487 yards of offense.  They will now take down Miami and avenge a 27-52 loss at Miami last year.  But they outgained Miami by 47 yards in that game and never should have lost by 25.  They lost the turnover battle 3-0 which proved to be the difference.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Take Louisville.

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on New York Yankees -1.5 (-131)

The Key: The New York Yankees are 9-0 in their last 9 games overall with 7 wins by 2 runs or more.  They have scored a combined 49 runs in their last 4 games and are getting healthy at the right time.  They have the edge on the rubber over the Red Sox once again today.  J.A. Happ is 1-2 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 7 starts this year.  Chris Mazza is 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in 4 starts.  Happ is 12-5 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 26 lifetime starts against the Red Sox, which is no small feat.  Mazza is 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA and 3.00 WHIP in his lone lifetime start against the Yankees, which came back on August 16th.  The Yankees are 11-0 in their last 11 matchups with the Red Sox with 10 of those wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Take New York on the Run Line.

6* Syracuse/Pitt ACC *CA$H COW* on Syracuse +21.5

The Key: This line is out of whack due to what happened last week.  Syracuse lost 6-31 to a UNC team that is a serious contender to win the ACC.  Pitt beat Austin Peay 55-0 and easily covered the 26.5-point spread.  And keep in mind Syracuse was only trailing that juggernaut of a UNC team 6-10 entering the 4th quarter before things spiraled out of control in the final period.  Pitt hasn’t been this big of a favorite over an FBS opponent since the Panthers were favored by 24 over Syracuse in 2016.  They only won that game by 15 points.  The Panthers are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games as home favorites.  Take Syracuse.

7* Nuggets/Lakers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -7

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are coming off their 2nd straight 7-game series.  They almost have to be running on fumes right now, at least for Game 1 of this series with the Lakers.  They did not respond well in Game 1 last series against the Clippers following a 7-game series against the Jazz.  They lost to the Clippers by 23 in Game 1.  I think the Lakers can put it on them early and pull away to a blowout victory as well.  The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 4 straight wins over the Rockets by 8 points or more to close out last series.  Take Los Angeles.

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on New York Yankees -1.5 (-134)

The Key: The New York Yankees are now 8-0 in their last 8 games overall with 7 wins by 2 runs or more.  They have scored a combined 43 runs in their last 3 games and they are getting healthy at the right time.  Now they have a big edge on the rubber over the Boston Red Sox tonight.  Jordan Montgomery is 2-2 with a. 4.76 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 8 starts this year for the Yankees.  Montgomery has never lost to the Red Sox, going 1-0 with a. 3.42 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them.  He has yielded just 2 runs in 9 1/3 innings in 2 starts against the Red Sox in 2020 alone.  Martin Perez is 0-3 with a 5.48 ERA in 4 home starts for the Red Sox this year.  Perez is 2-3 with a 9.85 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts against the Yankees.  The Yankees are 10-0 in their last 10 matchups with the Red Sox with ALL 10 WINS BY 2 RUNS OR MORE.  Take New York on the Run Line.

7* Bengals/Browns AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 43.5

The Key: There are some key injuries on defense for both teams heading into this Thursday night affair.  The Browns are missing 3 starters in the secondary, and the Ravens diced them up for 38 points last week.  They also lost LB Jacob Phillips in that game and he is out this week.  The Bengals are without their best defensive player in DT Geno Atkins, plus starting S Shawn Williams.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 matchups with combined scores of 44 or more points in all 5 games.  They combined for 46 and 56 points in their 2 matchups last year.  Take the OVER.

6* Heat/Celtics Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Miami +2.5

The Key: The Miami Heat show no mercy.  They are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in the playoffs this year.  They took the Bucks out in 5 games and really outplayed them even before Giannis got hurt, which is saying something because the Bucks were arguably the best team in the NBA.  And they came up clutch in Game 1 and won in OT.  It’s a Heat team playing with so much confidence right now that it’s just tough to bet against them.  And here they are again getting no respect from oddsmakers as 2.5-point dogs in Game 2.  They play great defense and have 3-point shooters everywhere, plus the best closer in Jimmy Butler.  Take Miami.

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on New York Yankees -1.5 (-119)

The Key: The New York Yankees have righted the ship by going 7-0 in their last 7 games overall with 6 wins by 2 runs or more.  They have scored a combined 33 runs in their first 2 games against Toronto in this series.  And now they have another big edge on the rubber tonight with Masahiro Tanaka over Chase Anderson.  Tanaka is 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 8 starts this year.  He is 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 21 lifetime starts against the Blue Jays.  Chase Anderson is 0-1 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 7 starts this year for the Blue Jays.  That includes 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 2 road starts.  The Yankees are 16-1 as a home favorite of -150 or more this year and winning by 4.4 RPG.  Take New York on the Run Line.

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago White Sox -138

The Key: They Chicago White Sox are 22-5 in their last 27 games overall.  They have won 10 of their last 11 games coming in.  And now they have the edge on the rubber over the Twins once again today, and it’s not even close.  Lucas Giolito is 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts this year with 82 strikeouts in 60 1/3 innings.  Jake Odorizz is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 3 starts this year for the Twins, and all 3 came against the light-hitting Royals.  The Twins are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.  The White Sox are 14-2 in their last 16 home games.  The White Sox are 26-8 as a favorite of -110 or higher this year.  Take Chicago.

7* Nuggets/Clippers Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 208.5

The Key: Game 7 UNDERS are one of the best bets in the NBA.  The pressure is huge for these Game 7’s, and they tend to be played at a snail’s pace because of it.  The Denver Nuggets have played 3 Game 7’s the past 2 seasons and we saw them combine for 176 points with the Spurs, 196 with the Blazers and 158 with the Jazz.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Nuggets last 7 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Clippers last 7 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* MLB Interleague *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Indians +144

The Key: The Cleveland Indians are desperate to end their 6-game losing streak.  They had yesterday off to regroup and should come back with a big effort against the Chicago Cubs today.  I love the price we are getting with the Indians behind Carlos Carrasco, who sports a 3.12 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 9 starts this year.  Carrasco has been dominant in his last 3 starts with a 0.95 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while yielding only 2 earned runs in 19 innings. Yu Darvish is having a great season, but his teams are just 1-5 in his 6 lifetime starts against the Indians.  The Indians are 7-2 in their last 9 interleague games, and 6-1 in their last 7 interleague road games.  The Cubs are 2-9 in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning record.  Take Cleveland.

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago White Sox -122

The Key: The Chicago White Sox are 21-5 in their last 26 games overall.  They have won 9 of their last 10 games coming in.  And now they have the edge on the rubber over the Twins today.  Dane Dunning is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his 4 starts as a rookie for the White Sox this year.  Randy Dobnak started strong for the Twins, but he’s just 1-2 with an 8.25 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  The White Sox are 25-8 as a favorite of -110 or higher this year.  Take Chicago.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Chicago White Sox +129

The Key: The Chicago White Sox are playing too well to be home dogs to the Twins.  The White Sox are 20-5 in their last 25 games overall.  They have won 8 of their last 9 coming in.  They have scored at least 4 runs in all 9 games.  And now they should get after Jose Berrios, who is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 4 road starts this year.  One of those starts came at Chicago on July 24th when he yielded 5 earned runs in 4 innings.  Dylan Cease is 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA in 9 starts for the White Sox, including 2-0 with a 1.72 ERA in 3 home starts.  Take Chicago.

7* Steelers/Giants NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -6

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers did a great job of getting to 8-8 last season without Ben Roethlisberger.  They got there behind a defense that ranked 5th in total defense at 304.1 YPG and 5th in scoring defense at 18.9 PPG.  They were also 1st in sacks (54) and 1st in takeaways (38).  Rookie QB Daniel Jones had 23 turnovers last year, including 11 lost fumbles and he didn’t even play the entire season.  The Giants have a makeshift offensive line to start the season, so the Steelers will dominate the line of scrimmage defensively, and that will be the key to them winning and covering.  Big Ben just has to be decent for the Steelers to put away the Giants.  And all reports coming out of training camp is that he has great velocity on his balls and looks like the old Big Ben.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* Indians/Twins AL Central *CA$H COW* on Cleveland +115 

The Key: The Cleveland Indians feel like they’re in a must-win here Sunday after losing the first 2 games of this series to the Twins.  They desperately want to avoid the sweep as they are now 2.5 games behind the Twins.  Rookie Triston McKenzie has been awesome for the Indians, going 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in his 4 starts this year with 26 strikeouts in 21 innings.  The Indians are 14-6 in their last 20 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  Take Cleveland.

6* Clippers/Nuggets Game 6 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 215

The Key: The Clippers and Nuggets combined for 181 points in Game 4 and 216 points in Game 5.  I expect this total to fall somewhere in the middle close to 200 combined points.  The Nuggets scored 38 points in the 4th quarter of their Game 5 comeback win that pushed that up to 216.  They just went off from the 3-point line.  That’s unlikely to happen again, and this will be a half court game.  Take the UNDER.

6* Dolphins/Patriots AFC East *CA$H COW* on Miami +7.5

The Key: The Miami Dolphins came on strong at the end of last season under Brian Flores. They even upset the New England Patriots in Week 17.  And now the Dolphins have almost everyone back, plus brought in some talent on defense.  They will go with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who gives his team a chance to win every week.  The Patriots are in a world of hurt replacing Tom Brady with Cam Newton.  But they are even worse off on defense with all of the players that have opted out.  The Patriots can’t be favored by more than a TD here given their current state entering Week 1.  Take Miami.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Jacksonville Jaguars +8

The Key: The Jaguars have been getting trashed all offseason.  There is a lot of hype around the Colts with the addition of Philip Rivers.  That narrative has created some nice line value here to back the Jaguars catching more of a touchdown at home in their opener. Gardner Minshew had a great rookie season and should only build off of it this year.  The Jaguars are still loaded with talent on defense, and the offense isn’t that bad under Minshew.  Rivers is far past his prime and I don’t think he’ll be as good as everyone is expecting.  He had great weapons with the Chargers, and he has a downgrade in weapons with the Colts.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Jets/Bills AFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +7 

The Key: There’s a lot of hype on the Buffalo Bills after making the playoffs last year.  But they were 10-6 while the Jets were 7-9 and really not that far behind.  And I don’t think there is 7 points separating these teams entering Week 1 of 2020, so I like the price we are getting with the Jets here.  The Jets blew a big lead in Week 1 last year to the Bills and lost 16-17.  But they got revenge in a 13-6 win in Week 17.  And this game will likely be decided by a TD or less, just as the last 3 matchups have been.  Take New York.

6* Coastal Carolina/Kansas NCAAF *BAILOUT* on Coastal Carolina +7

The Key: Coastal Carolina beat Kansas 12-7 last year as identical 7-point dogs.  I think we could see more of the same here in the 2020 rematch.  Coastal has 14 starters back while Kansas only has 11 back.  Coastal got in 15 spring practices, more than almost anyone in the country.  Kansas got in 0 spring practices.  Kansas has to break in a new starting QB this year, while Coastal gets back 8 starters on offense, including its top 2 QB’s from last year in Payton and Carpenter.  Plus redshirt freshman QB Grayson McCall is a stud, so they have good options there no matter who they go with.  The Chanticleers return their top 3 tacklers on D.  They had 4 losses by 7 points or fewer last year in their 5-7 campaign.  This is the 3rd year for head coach Jamey Chadwell and his best team yet.  Take Coastal Carolina.

6* Indians/Twins AL Central *CA$H COW* on Cleveland -107

The Key: This is a huge game for the Cleveland Indians after losing Game 1 to the Minnesota Twins.  They are trying to keep pace in the AL Central and find themselves in 3rd place currently.  But the Indians have the clear edge on the rubber tonight with Zach Plesac, who is 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in 5 starts this year.  Rich Hill is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 5 starts for the Twins.  Hill is 0-1 with an 8.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts against the Indians.  The Indians are 12-3 in their last 15 road games.  The Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 during Game 2 of a series.  The Twins are 2-10 in their last 12 games as home underdogs.  The Indians get back on track here following 4 straight losses overall.  Take Cleveland.

6* Rockets/Lakers Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Houston +6.5

The Key: We’re getting he best price we’ve gotten on Houston all series in Game 5 tonight as 6.5-point dogs.  That’s because they have failed to cover in each of their last 3 games against the Lakers, but it’s not like any of them were blowouts.  They lost all 3 by 10 points or fewer.  With their season on the line, expect a big performance from the Rockets in desperation mode in Game 5.  Houston is 15-5 ATS when playing with double revenge over the last 2 years.  Take Houston.

7* Saturday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +11

The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back.  They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback.  They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30.  Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year.  Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year.  He picked up right where he left off in the opener, leading South Alabama to a 32-21 upset win over Southern Miss as 15-point dogs.  Trotter threw for 299 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for 41 yards while leading South Alabama to 526 total yards in the win.  Tulane only has 12 starters back this year and loses it QB, top 2 receivers and top 2 RB’s from last year.  This is another game that the Jaguars have a chance to win outright, especially with a game under their belts already.  Take South Alabama.

6* Louisiana/Iowa State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -11

The Key: Louisiana won a school record 11 games last year and is getting too much respect from oddsmakers entering 2020 because of it.  They lost 3 picks to the NFL draft, including their top 2 offensive linemen.  They will be without their top 3 receivers from last year now that Jamal Bell is out for the year with a knee injury.  They are also without both Brian Smith Jr. and Calif Gossett at receiver as both were expected to add depth.  I don’t expect the chemistry to be very good in the opener between QB Levi Lewis and his receivers.  Louisiana was very fortunate to only give up 19.7 PPG last year when they gave up 372 YPG, an average of a huge 18.9 yards per point allowed.  There will be some regression on that side of the ball.  Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the Big 12 with 8 starters back from a unit that gave up 25.9 PPG and 369 YPG last year.  They will shut down this Louisiana offense.  The Cyclones only return 5 starters on offense, but they are their 2 best players in QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall.  They are just better everywhere on the field, and that will show up on the scoreboard here.  The Rajin Cajuns are 1-5 ATS in their last 5 against Big 12 teams.  Take Iowa State.

7* Celtics/Raptors Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -2.5

The Key: This series is tied 3-3, but it’s clear the Boston Celtics are the better team.  They have outscored the Raptors by a combined 43 points in their 3 wins, while the Raptors have only outscored the Celtics by a combined 11 points in their 3 victories.  So the Celtics have outscored the Raptors by a total of 32 points in this series, or by an average of 5.3 PPG.  I like the price on the Celtics here as only 2.5-point favorites in Game 7.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite this year.  The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in road games off a loss this year.  The Celtics are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as a favorite.  Take Boston.