Sports Picks & Predictions

6* NCAAF Annihilator on Colorado State -15.5
The Key: Colorado State will have no problem getting up for this game. Needing a win to become bowl eligible and hungry to end a 7-game losing streak to Air Force, the Rams will be ready to roll. Colorado State checks in off a SU and ATS loss at Utah State, but it is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a SU loss and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS loss. Air Force is way down, especially on the defensive side of the ball where it has been one of the worst teams in the country. Colorado State is on a 9-1 ATS run in home games versus terrible defensive teams that give up 6.25 yards or more per game. The Rams have won these games by an average score of 38.0 to 18.3. Lay the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Pistons -5
The Key: The Pistons fit perfectly into an extremely lucrative system that tells us to take home teams that are out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent if they also check in off an upset defeat of 15 points or more. Doing so has produced a 64-30 ATS mark since 1996. The Lakers are a dismal 8-21 as a road dog going back to the start of last season as well as a soft 9-19 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points during the same time frame. In addition, L.A. is a pitiful 1-11 ATS in road games off an upset win over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average score of 104 to 92.1 in this spot. Lastly, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Texas State pk
The Key: Look for Texas State to pick up its first win of the season here. First off, Tulane is a miserable 3-18 ATS in games when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Ed Conroy. The Green Wave are also on a 6-17 ATS slide as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Texas State is 7-0 ATS when playing away from home after 4 or more consecutive losses and 4-0 ATS in its last 4 neutral site games. Take Texas State.

6* NCAAF Annihilator on San Jose State +8
The Key: I'll grab the points with San Jose State on Senior Day as it tries to become bowl eligible. The Spartans blew an opportunity to punch their bowl ticket with an overtime loss to Navy last week. However, it shouldn't be hard for them to get up for an undefeated Fresno State squad with a postseason game on the line. And, they'll be lacking no confidence because they defeated the Bulldogs last season. Fresno State is trying to sneak into a BCS Bowl, but it has had its struggles on the road, defeating 0-11 Hawaii just 42-37 and San Diego State 35-28. The Bulldogs have a suspect pass defense that ranks 97th in the nation, and it will be tested all game by a San Jose State passing attack that ranks 9th in the country with 335.8 ypg. The Spartans are 13-4 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

7* Thanksgiving *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens -2.5
The Key: The Ravens have been an unbelievable home team over the years. In fact, they are 29-4 in their last 33 and 39-8 in their last 47 home games. At home, where they are allowing only 10.8 ppg this season, and out for revenge for last month's 19-16 loss at Pittsburgh, I expect the defending Super Bowl champs to rise to the occasion. The Steelers are just 2-4 on the road this season, giving up 24.5 ppg in these contests. Their road woes go back much further as they are a soft 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games. The Steelers haven't swept the regular-season series since 2008. Plus, the Ravens are 16-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less under coach Harbaugh, winning these games by an average score of 26.0 to 13.7. Lay the points.

6* Egg Bowl Annihilator on Mississippi State +4.5
The Key: Last week's win at Arkansas was huge for Mississippi State as it kept its bowl hopes alive. With bowl eligibility on the line, I expect the Bulldogs to give the Rebels all they want and more. The home team has had a significant edge in this rivalry. It is 8-1 in the last nine matchups, and those eight wins came by an average of 18.5 points. Mississippi State is 4-0 at home during this stretch with an average winning margin of 16.5 points. The Rebels haven't played a road game since Oct. 5, and they are being asked to do so on a short week. This is a tough spot for Ole Miss to say the least, especially against a rival that's lacking no motivation.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Raiders +9.5
The Key: You want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won two of their last three games if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a losing team in the seconds half of the season. That's because doing so has produced a 51-19 ATS mark since 1983. This system tightens up to 21-5 ATS the last 10 seasons. In addition, Dallas has been a terrible investment in the second half of the season. The Cowboys are 6-15 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons, including 0-6 ATS during this span when at home and matched up against a team with a losing record. They have lost these six by an average score of 27.3 to 25.0. It is also worth noting that the Cowboys are just 9-19 ATS as a favorite under coach Garrett. The Raiders are still in the mix for the AFCs second wild-card slot despite last week's loss to Tennessee. They have been an extraordinary bounce-back bet of late at 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss and 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Dallas has arguably the worst defense in the NFL this season, and it has been getting gashed on the ground lately. Oakland has the running attack to take advantage. Take the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Timberwolves -6
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 117-113 loss at Denver in the season's first meeting, the Timberwolves will be all business when they take the floor tonight. Minnesota is 6-2 at home and hasn't lost three consecutive games this season. The two previous times it has dropped two in a row this season, it responded with a 116-108 home win over Dallas and a 111-81 home win over Brooklyn. The Nuggets are just 2-4 on the road and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Denver is also 2-14 ATS in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. It has lost by an average of 7.7 points in this situation. The Timberwolves are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Take Minnesota.

6* NBA *TOP DOG* on Bobcats +8.5
The Key: The Pacers are getting too much respect on the road against a much improved Charlotte club. Indiana is 5-1 on the road, but only one of these wins came by more than 8 points. It's not like the Pacers have been playing elite competition either. Their road games have been against New Orleans (6-8), Detroit (6-8), Brooklyn (4-10), Chicago (6-7), New York (3-10) and Boston (6-10). Charlotte has been completely embarrassed the last two times it's faced the Pacers so it will bring a little something extra to the court tonight. The Bobcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 versus Eastern Conference opponents as well as 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus NBA Central division foes. The Bobcats are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a defeat. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Weber State +2.5
The Key: Weber State will be extremely motivated and well prepared when it takes the floor tonight. The Wildcats will be hungry for their first win as they lace 'em up on their home floor for the first time this season. They will also be hungry to avenge last season's 10-point loss at Utah State. The Wildcats haven't played since Nov. 16 so they have had a lot of time to prepare for this game. Weber State is on a 16-3 ATS run at home when the line is +3 to -3. It's on an 8-1 ATS run off 2 or more consecutive road losses and a 20-3 ATS run off a road loss of 10 points or more. The Wildcats are also 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Randy Rahe after a blowout loss of 20 points or more. They have won by an average score of 73.2 to 64.7 in this spot. Take the points.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator on Western Michigan +36
The Key: Northern Illinois will have a tough time getting up for this game. It has already clinched its fourth straight MAC West Division title, which means it has a much bigger game ahead. This is it, however, for Western Michigan so it will treat this as its bowl game. Western Michigan has just one defeat of more than 36 points this season, and Northern Illinois has just two wins of more than 36 points. The Broncos have won or lost by fewer than 36 points in 17 straight meetings with the Huskies. This little fact creates a perfect 17-0 trend I'll gladly get behind. Take the points.

6* NCAAB National TV Annihilator on Cal +4
The Key: Cal will want this game just a little bit more as it seeks revenge for last season's six-point loss to Syracuse in the NCAA Tournament. Syracuse is off to a 5-0 start, but this is not yet the same that went deep in the Big Dance last season. Gone are Brandon Triche, James Southerland and Michael Carter-Williams. The Golden Bears bring back more experience and have the motivational edge. The Golden Bears are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

6* MNF *CA$H COW* on Redskins +6
The Key: While the season hasn't gone as planned for Washington, the Redskins have remained competitive at home where they are 2-0 SU and ATS in their last two. Going back to last season, Washington is 6-2 in its last eight regular-season home games with only one of the losses coming by more than six points, a seven-point loss to Detroit Sept. 22. The Redskins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games versus a team with a winning road record. You also want to fade road favorites that have a win percentage of 60-75% that have covered the spread in six or seven of their last eight games and are matched up against a team with a losing record. That's because doing so produced a 36-12 ATS mark since 1983. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by 5.6 points on average but have won by only 2.1 points on average. This system is a near-perfect 5-1 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Timberwolves +7
The Key: You want to fade home teams like Indiana that outscore their opponents by 9.0 points or more per game and are matched up against an opponent that allowed 105 points or more in its last game. Doing so has produced an eye-popping 31-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system is 3-0 ATS this season. Minnesota is just 2-5 on the road, but four of those losses came by 4 points or less. The T-wolves lost by 11 at Houston in their last game, but they are 27-14 ATS after a loss of 10 points or more under coach Adelman. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on South Florida +9.5
The Key: This line is an overreaction to Oklahoma State's 101-80 rout of No. 11 Memphis, during which Marcus Smart scored a career-high 39 points. I expect a much different fate for the Cowboys tonight as they venture out on the road for the first time this season. The Cowboys are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games following three or more consecutive home games. In addition, teams headed up by Travis Ford are 0-9 ATS all-time in road games after two straight wins of 15 points or more. His teams have lost by an average of 11.4 points in this situation. USF played the Cowboys to a 12-point game on the road last season, holding them to just 61 points so it will be lacking no confidence as it looks to return the favor at home. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Patriots +3
The Key: The Patriots lost a close one at Carolina Monday, but I expect them to respond at home where they are 5-0 this season and 4-0 ATS in their last 4. New England has been terrific in bounce-back spots at 30-12-1 ATS in its last 43 games following a loss. Playing on a short week can be tough, but the Pats have managed well, going 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 times they've played Sunday following a Monday night game. New England has been a tremendous underdog investment under coach Belichick at 40-20 ATS in the role. The Pats are also on a 20-8 ATS run as a home underdog. They are 6-0 ATS against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons, defeating them by an average score of 36.2 to 16.2. The Patriots are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 versus Denver, winning these by 21.0 points on average. They are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 home games versus the Broncos, winning these by 26.3 points on average. This includes a 31-21 win over the Broncos last season. Manning and Brady have squared off 13 times. Brady is 9-4 in those matchups. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls +7
The Key: Rose is out indefinitely with a meniscus tear, but the Bulls have been through this before and will rise to the occasion in his absence. The Bulls have had a day of rest while the Clippers will be playing their second game in as many days and their fourth in five days so I believe Chicago will have more energy to exert at the defensive end. The Bulls have been the better investment of late as they have covered the spread in five of their last seven games while the Clippers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven. Chicago is an impressive 55-36 ATS after one or more consecutive losses under coach Thibodeau. It is also 26-10 ATS under coach Thibs following a loss of six points or less. The Bulls have won or lost by less than 7 points or less in 8 of the last 11 meetings with the Clippers. Take the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Dolphins +4.5
The Key: The Panthers are primed for a letdown following Monday night's thrilling win over New England. Plus, Miami has been extremely competitive at home where it is 3-2 and hasn't lost by more than 3 points. Miami hasn't lost by more than 3 points in its last 7 home games. Looking back further, the Dolphins have lost by more than 3 points just 3 times in their last 19 home games. Miami has struggled since a 3-0 start, but it is 6-0 ATS in home games the last 3 seasons when checking in with losses in 4 or 5 out of its last 6 games. It has won by an average score of 24.2 to 11.0 in this situation. The Dolphins are also 4-0 SU and ATS all-time versus Carolina, winning these by 7.8 points on average. Miami has wins over Indy and Cincy - two of the top teams in the AFC - so it has shown it can take down top-notch competition. We'll take the points as Carolina's 6-game win streak is in serious jeopardy.

6* AFC North Annihilator on Browns -1
The Key: Last week's 37-27 upset win over Detroit puts Pittsburgh in a negative situation this week. Consider that fading road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are off an upset win by 10 points or more has produced a 48-21 ATS record since 1983 as long as the game takes place after the first month of the season. The road has been severely unkind to the Steelers in recent years. In fact, Pittsburgh is 6-15 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons. The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in road games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons, losing these by an average score of 27.7 to 22.0. They are also 0-6 ATS under coach Tomlin in road games after scoring 30 points or more last game. The Browns have been very competitive at home where they are 3-2 this season and have won 7 of their last 11. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams that have a losing road record. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Steelers, winning last season's home meeting 20-14. Take Cleveland.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Magic +13.5
The Key: Orlando will be the much more motivated team tonight after getting clubbed by Miami in its last game. Even with that loss, Orlando has won or played the Heat to within 13 points in 13 of the last 15 meetings. I expect a lackadaisical performance from the Heat here as it will be very difficult for the two-time defending champs to get their juices flowing for a team they just crushed. The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points. You want to fade home favorites of 10 or more points that have a win percentage of .750 or greater after 3 or more consecutive wins when they are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced a 45-20 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by 12.8 points on average but have won by just 9.2. You also want to back underdogs of 10 or more points that have a win percentage of .250 to .400 if they have been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games when they are playing a team with a winning record. That's because doing so has produced a 42-16 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have been underdogs of 12.2 points on average but have lost by just 9.7. Take Orlando.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Tennessee -2.5
The Key: The Vols have lost three in a row, but they aren't about to call it a season. It's senior day, and they still have an excellent chance to become bowl eligible with Kentucky next week. They have had a bye week to prepare, and they will be extremely motivated by the haunting memory of the 41-18 beating they took at Vandy last season. That loss ended a six-game winning streak in the series. To say history is on Tennessee's side is an understatement. The Vols are on a 71-10-2 run in the series and are 28-2 in the last 30. They have won 3 straight at home. You want to fade road underdogs off a home win against a conference foe and up against an opponent that's off 2 straight conference losses where they allowed 31 points or more. Doing so has produced a 27-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons. It's also worth noting that the Vols are 13-3 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. Take Tennessee.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Iona -4
The Key: You want to fade road underdogs or pickems, like George Mason, in the first 10 games of the season that return all five starters and held their last opponent to 55 points or less. Doing so has produced a 29-7 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have lost by 12.1 points on average. This system is 13-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS already this season. George Mason is off to a 4-0 start but is just 3-12 ATS following 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Iona played Kansas last and should benefit from having stepped on the floor with arguably the most talented team in the country. George Mason hasn't seen a team nearly as talented as Kansas, and it takes a big step up in competition here. Lay the points.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Wake Forest +6
The Key: Wake has lost three in a row, but it isn't about to pack it in, not on senior day with bowl eligibility still a possibility. The Demon Deacons will be further motivated by last season's 34-27 home loss to Duke which snapped a 12-game winning streak in the series. While Duke is still fighting for a Coastal division title, I believe it comes into this one overconfident following a big win over Miami. It is also to Wake's benefit that it has had an extra week to prepare for this game. The Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Duke is 0-7 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons when it checks in off 2 straight conference games. It has lost by an average score of 42.3 to 20.1 in this situation. The Blue Devils are also on a 1-9 ATS skid in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. They have lost by an average score of 31.7 to 14.2 in this spot. Take Wake.

6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Northwestern +7.5
The Key: Northwestern has lost six in a row, but it hasn't quit. The Wildcats suffered a letdown at Wisconsin after blowing a 10-point third-quarter lead in a loss to Ohio State Oct. 5, but they have been extremely competitive since with overtime losses to Iowa and Michigan and three-point losses to Minnesota and Nebraska. While the season has not gone as planned, Northwestern still has a chance to reach bowl eligibility. Plus, the Wildcats know a win over 13th-ranked Michigan State would go a long way toward helping them feel better about the season. Northwestern defeated Michigan State 23-20 on the road last season and will draw a great deal of confidence from that result. We can also expect to see inspired performances from the upperclassmen as its senior day. Northwestern is on a 41-24 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, losing by just 4.4 points on average in these games. The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a losing record. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the points.

6* Friday Night Lights on San Jose State -2
The Key: San Jose State needs one win to become bowl eligible. With Fresno State on deck, the Spartans know they need to take care of business here. SJSU is 2-0 SU and ATS versus Navy the past two seasons, winning 12-0 at Navy last season while limiting the Midshipmen to only 70 yards on the ground. The Spartans rank 34th in the nation in total offense with 458.3 yards per game. That bodes extremely well for us because Navy is 2-10 ATS the last 3 seasons versus good offensive teams that average 425 yards per game or more. The Midshipmen have lost by an average score of 33.4 to 22.8 to these teams. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Grizzlies +1.5
The Key: Memphis has rebounded following a slow start and is now ready to get a little revenge against the Spurs. San Antonio swept the Grizzlies in last season's playoffs and then beat them in the season's first meeting so this is a game Memphis wants badly. The Grizzlies are 9-0 ATS since the start of last season versus excellent teams that shooting 46% or better and hold opponents to 43% shooting or worse. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 95.7 to 89.4. Also, the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams with a winning record. Take Memphis.

6* NCAAF *CA$H COW* on UNLV +3
The Key: UNLV hasn't been to a bowl since 2000, but it can punch its ticket with a win tonight. That will be all the motivation it needs. The Rebels still have a game at home after this, but that's against a San Diego State team that's 5-1 in the league so they do not want their bowl chances to come down to that. Air Force is having a miserable season and while it will show some pride tonight, it won't be enough. The Rebels won last season's meeting by 3 points, and they brought back nearly their entire starting lineup while Air Force lost more than half of its starters. The Falcons have been a terrible investment. They are 6-17 ATS the last 2 seasons, including 1-8 ATS as a favorite. They are 4-15 ATS in home games over the last 3 seasons, including 2-10 ATS as a favorite. The total is significant because Air Force is 0-7 ATS in home games when the total is between 56.5 and 63.0 points under coach Calhoun. Take the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Falcons +10
The Key: Atlanta is having a season from hell, but it will not lay down for hated division rival New Orleans. The Falcons will treat this game as their Super Bowl. New Orleans has not been the same force on the road where it has been defeated or won by fewer than 6.5 points in 6 of its last 7 and 21 of its last 26 games. Atlanta, on the other hand, has been tremendous at home where it has lost by more than 5 points just twice in its last 21 games. The home team has had the edge in this rivalry of late, going 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. In addition, Atlanta has won or lost by fewer than 10 points in 10 of the last 11 meetings overall and 5 straight at home. You want to back home teams in the second half of the season if they have a win percentage of 25% or less, have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and are matched up against a team with a winning record. That's because doing so has produced a 75-39 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

6* NCAAB National TV Annihilator (ESPN2) on Boston College +10.5
The Key: Now's the time to fade UConn. The Huskies are off to a 4-0 start but are 0-7 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Boston College checks in off a 3-point win over Florida Atlantic and is 6-0 ATS after a close win of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two schools. UConn has faced a bunch of offensively challenged teams since getting a scare from Maryland in its opener. B.C. has put up 92 and 82, respectively, in its last two games and has enough fire power to keep this one within the number.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on BYU -5.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from Iowa State as it hits the road for the first time this season following a big win over Michigan. BYU has been nearly unbeatable at home where it is 120-11 since 2005, and it will be hungry to avenge last season's ugly 21-point loss at Iowa State. The Cyclones lost four players from last year's team that averaged 9.0 points or more. These were experienced vets that could be counted on down the stretch in big games like this. They will miss that senior leadership in this road test. In addition, BYU gets a big lift with Tyler Haws expected to be back in action tonight. At home and with momentum, BYU has been tough as nails. The Cougars are on a 12-3 ATS run in home games off 2 or more consecutive home wins, winning by an average of 22.4 points in this spot. Lay the points.

6* MAC Game of the Week on Toledo +3
The Key: This is a huge game for both teams in terms of the MAC West title, but I give the edge to Toledo at home. The Rockets are 11-1 in their last 12 at home, including 6-0 in their last 6. They are also 6-2 in their last 8 home games against the Huskies with one of those defeats coming by only 3 points. Toledo should also benefit from the return of star running back David Fluellen, who is second in the MAC with 133.4 rushing yards per game and first in all-purpose yardage with 159.0. He and Kareem Hunt, who has 595 yards and six TDs on the ground in the last four games, form a formidable one-two punch that will be tough to stop. Toledo is 53-33 ATS at home since 1992, including 41-22 ATS against conference opponents during this span. It is also 16-4 ATS in home games after allowing 37 points or more last game since 1992 and 13-3 ATS after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half since 1992. The Huskies are 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings, including 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Toledo. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Toledo.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bucks +5.5
The Key: You want to back home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games when they're matched up with an opponent that has covered the number in 6 or 7 of its last 8 games. That's because doing so has produced a 66-33 ATS mark since 1996. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 6.0 points on average, but have lost by only 2.5 points on average. This system is an explosive 24-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. This is a tough spot for Portland as this is its 4th road game in 6 days. The Bucks have had 3 full days off and are expected to get Caron Butler and Ersan Ilyasova back in the lineup. Milwaukee has given Portland fits. The Bucks are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Annihilator on Ohio -6
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back brutally embarrassing losses on the road, and out for revenge for last season's 28-6 loss at Kent State, Ohio will show no mercy when it steps back on its home field this evening. You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off a home win against a conference foe and matched up against an opponent off two consecutive double-digit defeats to conference opponents. Doing so has produced a 22-5 ATS mark since 1992. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 6.3 points on average and have lost by 13.3 points on average. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards +5
The Key: I'll gladly take the home team catching points considering how valuable home-court has been in this series. The home team is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last 7 meetings with the six wins coming by an average of 9.7 points. Washington is 8-1 in its last 9 home games against the T-Wolves, winning these by 9.8 points on average. The Wizards are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 7-1 ATS in the last 8 at home. In addition, Washington is 19-7 ATS as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons, 13-3 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons and 16-6 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Siena +6
The Key: St. Bonaventure is 3-0 but has faced three inferior opponents on its home floor. Now, it heads out on the road for the first time. Siena is 0-3 and will be hungry to notch its first win and happy to be home after back-to-back road games. It brings a great deal of confidence into this matchup following a strong showing at La Salle, and it will be further motivated by last season's 15-point loss at St. Bonaventure. Prior to that defeat, Siena had played the Bonnies to within six points or less in three straight meetings. And, Siena hasn't lost by more than six points in its last three home games against the Bonnies. Siena is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings and 2-0 ATS in the last two home meetings. It is also 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 versus Atlantic 10 foes. Teams headed up by Jimmy Patsos are an impressive 73-50 ATS all-time as an underdog. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Panthers -1
The Key: Look for the red-hot Panthers to keep right on rolling against a New England team that has struggled on the road. The Patriots are 2-2 on the road and could be 1-3 or even 0-4. They needed a field goal in the closing seconds to pull out a win at Buffalo, and they needed to hold off Falcons in the final in Atlanta. They were fortunate Atlanta scored only one touchdown on six trips inside the 20 that day. The Bills and Falcons are 6-15 combined and don't have overwhelming defenses. The Patriots have lost their last two road games against the Bengals and Jets - teams with Top 10 defensive units. They face arguably the best defense in the league tonight. The Panthers rank No. 1 in total and scoring defense with 283.3 yards and 12.8 points per game allowed. They have been tough as nails against the run and the pass. The Patriots haven't been the same offensive juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing either. They put up big points in their last game against Pittsburgh, but the Steelers are very mediocre defensively this year. The New England stop unit has struggled to stop the run, which means it will likely struggle to slow down Carolina's Top 10 running attack. You want to take all teams when the line is +3 to -3 following a close road win of 3 points or less, provided they have a winning percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 35-11 ATS mark since 1983 and a perfect 8-0 ATS tally the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that New England is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bobcats +11.5
The Key: The Bulls are being overvalued following four consecutive SU and ATS double-digit wins. The Bobcats have won their last 3 road games outright as underdogs and will be lacking no motivated here against a Chicago team that defeated them by 30 the last time they met. Prior to that loss, Charlotte had defeated the Bulls by double digits as an 11.5 point dog and lost by only 8 points as a 13-point dog for back-to-back covers in the series. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Chicago, and the road team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Bulls are a lousy 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. You also want to take underdogs of 10 or more points that have shot team 42% or worse in 3 straight games when they're up against a team that has allowed a shooting percentage of 42% or less in 5 straight games. Doing so has produced a 28-8 ATS mark since 1996. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 12.8 points on average but have lost by just 7.3 points on average. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on North Dakota State -5
The Key: North Dakota State brings back its entire starting five, and it will be extremely focused and motivated tonight after losing by double-digits at St. Mary's last game. The Bison have been nearly unbeatable at home where they are 13-1 in their last 14. North Dakota State is on a 9-1 ATS run following a double-digit road loss. It's also an impressive 26-10 ATS in its last 36 non-conference contests. The Golden Eagles have been a poor investment at 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. You also want to take home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like N. Dakota State that return two more starters than their opponent and had a good defense last season, one that held opponents to 42% shooting or worse. Doing so has produced a 41-14 ATS mark since 1997. Teams fitting these parameters have won by an average of 11.4 points. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 3-0 ATS this season.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Broncos -7.5
The Key: I'm not buying the Chiefs as a Super Bowl contender, which I strongly believe Denver is. The Chiefs have benefited from a favorable schedule and a +15 turnover margin. They are solid defensively, but I don't believe they are good enough to tame Denver's explosive offense. Kansas City won't be able to rely on its defense to make big plays in this one. Manning has just 6 INTs on the season. Kansas City's offense will have to do something, and I don't see it doing enough. The Chiefs rank 24th in the NFL in total offense, and they managed only 210 total yards while giving up 470 in their last game against Buffalo. Kansas City's bye week might not be a positive thing in this case, either, as it squashes its momentum. Denver is 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Broncos are also 6-0 ATS off a road win against a division rival under coach John Fox, who is recovering from surgery but still has a hand on this team. The Chiefs have been crushed by good passing teams lately, going 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games versus teams that average 260 passing yards or more per game. They have lost to these teams by an average score of 25.7 to 11.1. Denver is on an 18-6 ATS run in home games versus teams that give up 17.0 points or less per game. It has defeated these teams by an average score of 27.5 to 17.3.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Denver +2
The Key: Motivated by a 27-point loss at Cal in its opener, and further motivated by a 13-point loss at Stanford last season, Denver will be ready to defend its home court, which is something it has done extraordinarily well under coach Joe Scott. The Pioneers are 50-29 ATS at home under Scott, winning these by an average score of 67.4 to 57.8. They are 20-10 ATS in home games following a road loss under Scott, winning these by an average score of 67.5 to 57.7. The Cardinal are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. The Pioneers are a perfect 13-0 in their last 13 home games. Take Denver.

7* AFC East Game of the Year on Bills pk
The Key: The Jets haven't won consecutive games all season going 0-4 following a win. They have also struggled on the road where they are 1-3. Buffalo has been very competitive at home where it has wins over red-hot Carolina and the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens. It has also given New England, Cincinnati and Kansas City all they wanted at Ralph Wilson Stadium. They outgained the Chiefs 470-210 in their last home game but were doomed by a 99-yard pick six and a fumble return TD. The yardage numbers tell the real story as they moved the ball comfortably against a very good Kansas City defense. They should be able to move it against the Jets as well. And, I don't expect New York to come up with as many big defensive plays as Kansas City did. After all, the Jets have forced only seven turnovers all season. Buffalo lost the season's first meeting and will be out for revenge as a result. The Bills won 28-9 in last season's home meeting against the Jets, and I expect them to take care of business again. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a road loss and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games taking place in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 24.0 points per game or more. You also want to fade teams that have a winning record that check in off an upset win at home. Doing so has produced a 148-78 (65.5%) ATS record since 1983. This system is already 5-1 ATS this season. Take Buffalo.

6* NFL Early Annihilator on Bengals -6
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back overtime losses on the road, and further fueled by a 17-6 defeat at Cleveland in the season's first meeting, the Bengals will show no mercy here. Cincy is happy to be home where it is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five. It has won these by 13.4 points on average. The Bengals are 4-0 in their last four and 8-1 in their last nine home games against the Browns. These eight victories have come by an average of 7.0 points so we are getting the Bengals at a good number. You also want to back any team that is out for revenge for a loss where it was held to less than 9 points if it is coming off a loss of 3 points or less to a division opponent. That's because doing so has produced a 36-13 ATS mark since 1983. This rare system tightens up to 7-2 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Lay the number.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Wisconsin-Green Bay +5.5
The Key: It's safe to say this game means a lot more to Green Bay. The Badgers check in off a big revenge win over Florida and are now likely riding a little too high on the horse to give Green Bay its full attention. This is a game the Phoenix want badly. They have lost by double digits to the Badgers each of the past three seasons, but those games were at Wisconsin. Now, Green Bay gets to play host, and the last time it did (2009) it upset a ranked Wisconsin squad as a 5-point dog in OT. That was one of only 7 regular-season losses for Wisconsin that year. The Phoenix again has a team capable of knocking off the Badgers. It will be a packed house at Resch Center where the Phoenix are 35-9 in their last 44. The Badgers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus Horizon League opponents. The Phoenix are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 versus Big Ten schools. Wisconsin-Green Bay is also 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in the series. Take the points.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Texas +3
The Key: The Longhorns have rattled off six consecutive victories since looking dead in the water after a 1-2 start. I fully expect them to keep rolling Saturday afternoon. Texas has been more impressive than Oklahoma State in conference play, and an analysis of like opponents supports that statement. The Cowboys lost at West Virginia while Texas managed to get the job done there last week. The Cowboys managed a win of just four points against Kansas State while the Longhorns took care of the Wildcats by double digits. Texas also beat TCU worse on the road than Oklahoma State did at home. Both schools smoked Kansas and Oklahoma State beat Iowa State far worse, but all in all the Longhorns have been more impressive. Texas also has the most impressive conference win of the two schools, a 36-20 victory over Oklahoma. The Longhorns are a bit banged up, but this is a deep and talented team. Texas is 23-4 all-time against Oklahoma State, including 13-0 when ranked in the Top 25. Take Texas.

7* AAC Game of the Year on Rutgers pk
The Key: Cincinnati is 7-2, but it hasn't played anyone yet. Despite a soft schedule, the Bearcats have struggled on the road where they defeated 0-10 Miami Ohio only 14-0 and lost to 2-6 South Florida 26-20. Rutgers has won two straight against Cincinnati by scores of 20-3 and 10-3 and will benefit from having had an extra week to prepare. Rutgers should also benefit from having already stepped on the field against several quality opponents. The Scarlet Knights still need a win to become bowl eligible so they will be lacking no incentive. The Scarlet Knights are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. They are on a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS run at home following a bye when up against a team that checks in off a straight up win. Take Rutgers.

6* NCAAF Early Annihilator on Penn State -21.5
The Key: Needing one win to become bowl eligible, and with tough games against Nebraska and Wisconsin ahead, the Nittany Lions will punch their bowl ticket with a decisive win over Purdue. Purdue's is 0-7 in its last seven games with its last six defeats coming by 31, 31, 37, 14, 56 and 24 points. That's an average losing margin of 32.2 points. In addition, you want to back home favorites of 21.5 or more points like Penn State that average 390-440 ypg when they're up against a team that gives up 390-440 ypg. That's because doing so has produced a 40-15 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have won by 32.3 points on average. Penn State handled Purdue by 25 last season and should roll again. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Bailout Blowout on UNLV -14
The Key: This is a tough spot for Nebraska-Omaha, which is playing its 4th game in a week and will be on the road for the 3rd time during this stretch. To make matters worse, it will be up against a UNLV squad that has been at home and will be playing just its 3rd game in a week. Additionally, UNO catches the Runnin' Rebs at a bad time as they were upset by 21 points by UC Santa Barbara last game. You can bet that loss got their attention. The Runnin' Rebels are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home. Lay the points.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Washington +3
The Key: You want to play on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that check in off two consecutive double-digit wins against conference rivals if the "play on" team has a win percentage of 60-80% and is matched up against a team with a winning record. That's because doing so has produced a 37-12 ATS mark since 1992. Teams fitting these parameters have won by 7.2 points on average. It is also worth noting that this system is 5-0 ATS the last three seasons. Washington has showed me more in games against like opponents. It played Stanford to a three-point game while UCLA lost to the Cardinal by 14. Washington beat Arizona by 18 while the Bruins managed a win of only five points against the Wildcats. The Huskies also played Oregon tougher than UCLA and beat Colorado by a larger margin. UCLA defeated Cal by three more points than Washington did, but the Huskies racked up 154 more yards than the Bruins did against the Golden Bears. Take the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Cavs -6.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back blowout losses on the road, and further fueled by a 6-point loss at Charlotte earlier this month, Cleveland will be all business when it takes the floor this evening. The Cavs have been a different team at home where they are 3-0. Home-court advantage has also treated them well against Charlotte as they are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games against the Bobcats, winning these by 16.0 points on average. Charlotte has been a lousy investment when catching points on the road as it is 16-28 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. It falls to 8-18 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points during this span. The Bobcats pulled off an upset win at Boston last game. However, they are 4-14 ATS off an upset win the last 2 seasons. Charlotte is also just 4-16 ATS on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Thunder/Warriors Under 207
The Key: You want to play the under on all teams with a winning record playing another winning team in the first half of the season when the total is 200 to 209.5. Doing so has produced an amazing 93-36 (72.1%) mark the last 5 seasons. We've seen just 197.0 total points scored on average in this situation. We have seen 217 and 213 total points scored the last two times these teams have met, and yet we're seeing a line of 207.0? Clearly, odds makers expect Golden State's stingy defense to be more of a factor this time around. The Warriors rank 4th in field goal percentage defense and first in 3-point field goal percentage defense. The Thunder haven't been too shabby defensively either, ranking 9th in field goal percentage defense and 11th in 3-point field goal percentage defense. Take the under.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Titans +3
The Key: Indianapolis has not been the same offensively since losing Reggie Wayne. The Colts should have lost to Houston as they were down 24-6 late in the third quarter, and they were stomped 38-8 by St. Louis last week. I expect their struggles to continue on the road in a short week against a Tennessee squad that ranks 9th in total defense and 8th against the pass. The Titans will be extremely motivated here as a win gets them within a game of first place in the division. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a capable backup, and Tennessee's run game should find success against an Indy defense that ranks 26th against the run. Tennessee has won, been tied at the end of regulation or lost by less than 3 points in six of its last seven home games against Indy. The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take the points.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Georgia Tech +11.5
The Key: This is a huge game for Georgia Tech as it is currently sitting atop the Coastal division. Plus, the Yellow Jackets will be out for a little revenge. They lost 47-31 at Clemson last season, but don't forget that they actually led 31-30 in the fourth quarter of that game. Clemson connected on a two-point conversion after scoring the go-ahead touchdown. Then, Georgia Tech's Chris Milton slipped as he picked up the ensuing kickoff, giving the Yellow Jackets the ball on their two-yard line. Two plays later, Clemson's Spencer Shuey tackled Orion Smith in the end zone for a safety. Then, of course, Tech had to kick right back to Clemson. That's a fluky ending if I've ever seen one, and the Yellow Jackets will be out to prove that they are better than they showed in last season's meeting. Clemson will have no answer for GTs running game, which will keep the clock moving. On the other side, I expect a Yellow Jacket defense that ranks 13th nationally to do a much better job against Clemson than it did last year. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus a team with a winning record. The underdog is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Georgia Tech has won 7 of the last 10 meetings and has won or lost by fewer than this number in 17 of the last 22 meetings. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Towson -5
The Key: Temple defeated Towson by 11 points at home last season, but now it's payback time. The Owls lost four of their top five scorers from last year's team, including Khalif Wyatt, who did it all. The Tigers bring back their top five scorers, including CAA Preseason Player of the Year Jerrelle Benimon. Look for the Owls to struggle in the early going as they continue to adjust to life without Wyatt. You want to take favorites in the first five games of the season that return four starters if they combined with their opponent to score 155 points or more last game. Doing so has produced a 71-38 ATS mark the last five seasons. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on UC Riverside +3
The Key: UC Riverside was roughed up in its opener by a San Diego State team that won a game in last season's NCAA Tournament, and it will be all the better for it here. Pepperdine played a cupcake (SD Christian) in its opener and won't be ready for the intensity of a UC Riverside squad that will be hungry to avenge last season's 62-40 loss at Pepperdine. You want to take home teams in the first 5 games of the season like the Highlanders who closed out last season poorly with 13 losses or more in their last 15 games. Doing so has produced a 146-93 ATS result since 1997. It is also worth noting that the Highlanders are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus West Coast Conference opponents. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Annihilator on Ball State +7.5
The Key: I'll take the points in a game I expect to go right down to the wire. While Northern Illinois still has a little more work to do, Ball State can clinch the MAC West with a win tonight. Winning in conference play hasn't been much of a problem for the Cardinals lately as they are 11-0 in their last 11 MAC contests. Ball State has lost by more than 7 points just once in its last 20 regular season games. That was a 35-23 loss to Northern Illinois last season. However, the Cardinals led 23-14 in the third quarter of that game and outgained the Huskies 563-509. In other words, the game was much closer than the final score might lead you to believe. Look for QB Keith Wenning and WR Willie Snead to eat up a NIU defense that ranks 108th in the country against the pass. Jordan Lynch is a heck of a football player, but Ball State found a way to hold him in check for most of the game in last year's meeting. The Cardinals are an insane 40-14 ATS in their last 54 road games. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Huskies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 versus a team with a winning record. You also want to back road underdogs that average 450 yards or more per game after a game where they averaged 7.25 yards or more per play. Doing so has produced a 37-9 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Bobcats +5.5
The Key: Boston has won four in a row since an 0-4 start and has covered the spread in its last five, but I'm not sold. The Celtics did find a way to beat a Miami team that is playing uninspired ball but their other wins against Utah and Orlando are far from impressive. Plus, two of their wins have come by two points or less. The Bobcats will be motivated here as they have lost back-to-back games after winning two in a row. Plus, they have proven they can win in a tough environment as they defeated the Knicks at MSG. The Bobcats are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 versus NBA Atlantic division foes and 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Boston. Also, the underdog is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Lakers +3.5
The Key: This line is an overreaction to several things: a 96-85 loss at New Orleans Friday, a 113-90 loss to Minnesota Sunday and the absence of Steve Nash. The Lakers had won 11 straight against New Orleans before Friday's loss so they will be hungry for revenge to say the least. They will be further motivated by Sunday's brutally embarrassing loss to Minnesota. Also, Nash hasn't been much of a factor this season as he's averaging just 6.7 points and 4.8 assists. Nash had a quiet 3 points and 5 assists in the Lakers' win over the Clippers, and he has a mediocre 12-point, 6-assist performance in their win over the Rockets. The Lakers have already defeated a pair of teams I believe will contend for the Western Conference title without much help Nash. New Orleans hasn't been the same team on the road where it is 1-2 with losses to the Magic and Suns, teams I believe will end up toward the bottom of their respective conferences. The Lakers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games against New Orleans, winning these by 8.2 points on average.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cal-Irvine +1.5
The Key: This is a game Cal-Irvine had circled heading into the season. Pacific defeated the Anteaters in the Big West tournament championship game to secure its spot in the Big Dance, and Irvine will be out for some serious revenge as a result. The Anteaters check in off an overtime loss at home to Fresno State in their opener. This is significant as they are 10-2 ATS under coach Turner off a home loss. They have won by an average score of 77.3 to 75.0 in this situation. It is also significant that Pacific checks in off a win at Nevada. That's because you want to fade favorites off a road win that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) and are matched up against a team that had a winning record. Doing so has produced a 37-12 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Take Cal-Irvine.

6* NCAAF Annihilator on Bowling Green -9.5
The Key: Ohio's chances of playing in the conference championship game were basically squashed with last week's 30-3 loss at Buffalo. Bowling Green's hopes, however, are still very much alive as they have just one conference loss and play Buffalo in their regular-season finale. This is also senior night for Bowling Green as it is its last home game of the season so the Falcons will have a little extra spark. Bowling Green won by 12 at Ohio last season and brought back nearly its entire starting 22. The Falcons stomped Miami Ohio last week and are 7-0 ATS after a win by 21 or more points over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 27.1 to 12.0. Ohio is 0-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of its last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. It has lost by an average score of 32.5 to 20.3 in this situation. The Falcons are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 6-2 ATS in the last 8 at home. Lay the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Buccaneers +3
The Key: The Buccaneers fit perfectly into a very lucrative situation that says to take underdogs or pickems after 7 or more consecutive losses if they are playing in the second half of the season. Doing so has produced an 88-41 (68.2%) ATS mark since 1983. Tampa Bay has been more competitive than its record leads you to believe. The Bucs have 4 losses of 3 points or less to the Jets, Saints, Cardinals and Seahawks - teams with winning records. Tampa Bay is also 4-0 ATS in its last 4 against the Dolphins. It won 3 of these straight up with the lone loss coming by only 2 points. Take the points.

6* NBA Annihilator on Rockets -8
The Key: Off back-to-back defeats, the Rockets will be extremely motivated when they take the floor this evening. As if Thursday's 1-point loss to the Lakers wasn't painful enough, Houston squandered an 11-point third-quarter lead in Saturday's 107-94 defeat to the Clippers. I have no doubt the Rockets will be all business following these results. In addition, this is a tough scheduling spot for Toronto, which will be playing its 5th game in 7 days. The Rockets have had a day off after each of their last two games and haven't had to travel as they've been at home. They will be the fresher side. The home team has had a big edge in this series. In fact, the home team is 12-0 in the last 12 meetings with an average winning margin of 12.8 points. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Annihilator on Davidson -12
The Key: Motivated by a brutal 111-77 loss at Duke and further fueled by last season's upset loss at Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Davidson will roll tonight. The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS since the start of the 2011 season following a loss of 10 points or more. They have won these six by an average of 19.6 points. It is also worth noting that Wisconsin-Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS since the beginning of the 2011 season following a loss of 6 points or fewer. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Marist pk
The Key: Elon went 21-12 last season while Marist went 10-21. However, an examining of last season's like opponents suggests Marist is the better team. Both teams went 2-4 against the likes of Canisius, Colgate, College of Charleston, Columbia and VMI last season, but Marist averaged 76.7 points on 47.2% shooting in these games while Elon averaged just 66.5 points on 39.5% shooting. The Red Foxes were better defensively as well, holding the opposition to just 42.8% shooting and had a losing margin of only 0.3 points. The Phoenix allowed these teams to shoot 45.0% and had a losing margin of 4.2 points. The Phoenix rolled Division II Washington & Lee in their opener, but they take a big step up in competition here. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Red Foxes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record. Take Marist.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Chargers +7
The Key: Denver hasn't been the same team on the road where it struggled to beat the Cowboys and lost to the Colts. San Diego, on the other hand, has been formidable at home where it hasn't lost by more than 3 points and has wins over the Cowboys and Colts by 9 and 10 points, respectively. San Diego has won or lost by 7 points or less in 14 of its last 17 games against the Broncos. The Chargers have lost by more than 7 points just 4 times in their last 33 home games. The Bolts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record. Take the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Packers -1
The Key: The Packers lost to the Bears Monday night with Aaron Rodgers going down with a broken collarbone early in that game. Rodgers will miss this game, but don't count on the Packers losing two in a row at Lambeau. Green Bay is 29-3 in its last 32 regular-season games at home as well as 16-4 all-time in home games against the Eagles. The Bears haven't played particularly well on the defensive side of the football this season, but they know the Packers well. Plus, they benefited from Rodgers injury as Seneca Wallace was thrown to the wolves. The Eagles aren't nearly as familiar with Green Bay, and they'll see a much more prepared Wallace this week. In addition, Philadelphia has been dreadful defensively, ranking dead last in the NFL at 419.3 ypg allowed. Nick Foles had a career day last week, but I expect him to come back down to earth against a Green Bay stop unit that ranks 15th in the league at 345 ypg allowed. That defense will be bolstered by the expected return of Clay Matthews. The Packers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss, 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing record. The Eagles are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall, 7-19-1 ATS in their 27 games versus a team with a winning record and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win. Green Bay also has a significant advantage on special teams. It is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games in the second half of the season versus poor kickoff coverage teams that allow 24 yards or more per return. It has won by an average score of 37.3 to 17.5 in this situation. The Eagles are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons versus excellent punt return teams that average more than 12 yards per return. They have lost by an average score of 30.3 to 17.8 in this situation. Take Green Bay.

6* NFL Line Mistake on Falcons +5.5
The Key: Odds makers are giving Seattle too much respect in Atlanta Sunday. The Seahawks have been far from dominant on the road where they have only one win by more than 5 points this season. Atlanta has enjoyed one of the best home field advantages in the NFL in recent years, and it has just one loss by more than 5 points at home this season. Seattle has won by more than 5 points on the road just 10 times in its last 57 road games. Atlanta, meanwhile, has lost by more than 5 points just once in its last 20 home games. In addition, Atlanta has won or lost by less than 3 points in 6 straight meetings with Seattle. Atlanta was kicked last week at Carolina, but it is 11-1 ATS all-time under coach Smith after a loss by 10 or more points. It has won by an average score of 31.5 to 20.6 in this situation. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Bailout on Wyoming +10
The Key: Wyoming is still two wins away from bowl eligibility, and while a home game against Hawaii Nov. 23 looks like a sure thing, this contest and a pair of road games against Boise State and Utah State will be tough to say the least. This means the Cowboys need to find a way to win one of its three remaining tough games, and I believe this is its best opportunity because it's at home and against a team that struggles defensively. While Fresno State is one of the top offensive teams in the nation, it has been a poor investment because its defense has let it down. The Bulldogs are just 2-6 ATS this season, largely because they rank 91st in the nation in total defense with 431.1 ypg allowed. Fresno State's poor defensive play figures to be a major issue here as it goes up against an explosive offensive team that has had an extra week to prepare. Wyoming's balanced offensive attack ranks 9th in the nation with 516 ypg. Defense has been an issue for Wyoming as well, but recent history suggests a solid defensive effort is coming. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. They have won by an average score of 32.6 to 19.0 in this situation. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nets -1.5
The Key: I expect Brooklyn to hand Indiana its first defeat this evening. Brooklyn lost in OT at Washington last night but only one player logged more than 35 minutes. Plus, the Nets had two days off prior to the contest so I believe they'll be the fresher side. This will be Indiana's fourth game in five days, and it comes on the road against the deepest and most talented team it's seen thus far. Brooklyn has struggled on the road but has taken care of business on its home floor where it is 2-0 with one of those being a win over the defending champs. The Pacers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a losing record. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Brooklyn, losing the last four straight up by an average of 10.0 points. Bet the Nets.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Utah +7
The Key: Back home, motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and having had a bye week to prepare, the Utes will give Arizona State all it wants and more Saturday afternoon. Utah still needs two wins in its final four games to reach bowl eligibility so it will be going after this one with all it has. Plus, the Utes were stomped 37-7 at ASU last season so they will be out for some serious revenge. Utah has been one tough cookie at home where it is 3-2 on the season, upset Stanford and hasn't lost by more than 7 points. ASU, meanwhile, hasn't been as strong away from home, where it is 1-2 this season. Utah is 27-12 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992. The Utes are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 52-31 ATS as an underdog since 1992. Utah didn't force a single turnover in its last game, but it is 14-2 ATS all-time under coach Whittingham after a game where it forced no turnovers and has won by an average score of 36.2 to 19.4 in this situation. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Annihilator on College of Charleston +22
The Key: This experienced Cougars club, which returns 7 of its top 8 scorers, will be lacking no motivation when it takes the floor this afternoon. They were brutally embarrassed by a score of 80-38 in last season's meeting with the Cardinals, and they'll be out to save face here. Louisville lost Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng, and Chane Behanan is out serving a suspension and Luke Hancock is out with an Achilles injury. That's a lot of fire power. C of C is on a 19-6 ATS run as a road underdog of 10 or more points. Take the points.

6* ACC Game of the Week on Wake Forest +35
The Key: Following a huge win over Miami, there's no way Florida State will give a Wake Forest team it defeated 52-0 last season its full attention. The result of last season's meeting assures us the Demon Deacons will be highly motivated. Wake is 2-0 SU and ATS at home in conference play this season, earning impressive double-digit wins over NC State and Maryland. The Deacs are clearly a different team on their home turf where they shocked FSU 35-30 as double-digit dogs in 2011. In fact, WF has won or lost by less than 29 points in 7 straight home games against the Seminoles. That's a 7-0 trend I can get behind. The Deacs are 2-2 in their last 4 at home against the Noles with the 2 losses coming by just 3 and 13 points. The Seminoles are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 versus teams with a losing record. FSU is also on a 4-13 ATS slide in road games following 3 consecutive wins against conference foes. The Noles are just 5-13 ATS under Jumbo Fisher after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins. The Demon Deacons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss and 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Seminoles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings at Wake Forest, and the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on New Mexico -3
The Key: New Mexico is at home and hungry to end a five-game losing streak to Air Force. The Lobos head into this one knowing they have what it takes to win after blowing a 10-0 lead and outgaining the Falcons 443-366 in last season's 28-23 loss at Air Force. The Lobos racked up 409 rushing yards in that game, and it's safe to say Air Force will have no answer for the nation's No. 2 ranked running attack again tonight. Air Force has been a poor investment of late, going just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games. It also bodes well for us that the Falcons enter off a win and cover as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. It is also worth noting that the Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Lobos have taken care of business at home over the years versus weak competition. In fact, they are on a 13-3 ATS run in home games versus teams like Air Force that are getting outscored by 10.0 points per game or more on the season. They have won by an average score of 37.7 to 15.0 in this situation. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Opening Night *CA$H COW* on South Alabama -6.5
The Key: Detroit finds itself at a sizable disadvantage opening at South Alabama where the Jaguars were an impressive 10-3 last season, including 7-0 in their last 7 (won these by 9.3 points on average). Detroit is at a further disadvantage because it loses the top four scorers from last year's team, including Horizon League player of the year Ray McCallum Jr. South Alabama brings back a lot more fire power (3 of their top 4 scorers), including Augustine Rubit, who was named the Sun Belt Conference Preseason Player of the Year. The Titans have been a poor investment in non-conference play at 4-11 ATS in their last 15. They have also been a poor early season investment at 1-8 ATS in their last 9 November contests. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Annihilator on Raptors +9
The Key: This is a bad spot for Indiana. The Pacers are coming off a big win over Chicago, and they have a big game at Brooklyn tomorrow so the tendency is to look ahead. You want to fade Friday night home favorites like Indiana that are outscoring opponents by 6.0 points or more per game as doing so has produced a 75-39 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by 9.9 points on average but have won by just 7.3. The Raptors are 0-2 SU and ATS in their last two and were upset at Charlotte last game. However, they are 19-8 ATS in road games off a road loss since the start of the 2011 season. They are also on a 22-10 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games during the same time frame. The Raptors gave Indiana big problems last season. They won both meetings in Indiana straight up as 9 and 7-point dogs, respectively, and played the Pacers to a two-point game in one of the other two meetings. In fact, Toronto has won or lost by less than 9 points in 7 of its last 8 meetings with the Pacers. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing record, and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets -3
The Key: I fully expect Denver to break into the win column tonight at home. The Nuggets have lost their first two home games this season, and that can't be sitting well with a team that went 38-3 at home during the 2012-13 regular season. The Nuggets showed drastic improvement last game against the defending Western Conference champs, and I believe they break through here against a team they have owned. They are 6-0 in their last 6 home games against the Hawks, winning these by 9.2 points on average. Lay the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Vikings +3
The Key: Washington hasn't won consecutive games this season and will have a tough time trying to do so tonight on the road on a short week. The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Minnesota is 1-7, but it is a better team that its record leads you to believe. Consider that three of its defeats have come in the final minute so it's not a stretch to say the Vikes could be 4-4. Washington has struggled on the road where it is 1-3 SU and ATS this season. These losses have come by 18, 15 and 24 points. The Skins have been a notoriously poor favorite at 53-82 ATS since 1992. They've also been a poor investment against losing teams at 13-28-3 ATS in their last 44 against such opponents. Teams headed up by Mike Shanahan are 8-22 ATS when facing teams with a win percentage of 25% or less since 1992. This trend dips to 2-10 ATS if the game is being played in the second half of the season. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Take the points.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator on Troy +14
The Key: Troy should be the more prepared team as it has had a 6 days to gear up for this contest while Lafayette has had only 4. Troy should also be the hungrier side as it looks to end a two-game losing streak to the Ragin' Cajuns. Troy has won or lost by 14 points or less in 10 straight meetings in the series so it is showing some nice value catching 14 here. Plus, it has been very competitive on the road this season, going 2-3 with two of the losses coming by only 7 points. You want to back road underdogs 7 games or more into the season that average 5.6-6.2 yards per play if they're matched up against a team that allows 5.6-6.2 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 22-2 ATS mark the last 3 seasons. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Clippers +5.5
The Key: The Clippers got caught looking ahead last night and lost to the Magic. That loss assures us they will be even hungrier when they take the floor this evening. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Heat are coming off a win and cover against the Raptors but are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. You also want to back underdogs that average 103.0 points or more per game if they trailed in their last game by 15 points or more at the half. Doing so has produced a 54-24 ATS mark since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 5.8 points on average but have lost by only 2.1 points on average. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

6* National TV Annihilator on Central Michigan +21.5
The Key: Central Michigan hasn't played since Oct. 19 so it will be chomping at the bit to get back on the field tonight. The Chippewas have been an outstanding post-bye week investment at 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11. Central Mich will be out for some revenge tonight as it was defeated 41-30 at home in last season's meeting. Ball State has actually won the last three meetings, but none of those wins came by more than 14 points. In fact, the Chippewas have won or lost by 17 points or less in 21 meetings dating back to 1992. Now that's a 21-0 trend I can get behind. Ball State has a big showdown with Northern Illinois next Wednesday, and that puts it in a look-ahead spot here. The Chippewas are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings at Ball State, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bulls +3
The Key: The Bulls haven't played since Nov. 2 when they blew a 20-point lead in a loss to the 76ers so they will be fresh and hungry when they hit the floor tonight. Indiana just played last night in Detroit so it is at a big disadvantage in terms of preparation. The Bulls will also be out to make a statement since they went just 1-3 against the Pacers last season. They did not have Rose, however, and are 14-6 against Indiana with Rose in the lineup. There are plenty of trends supporting this play too. Chicago is 33-12 ATS following an upset loss under coach Thibodeau. It has won by an average of 10.0 points in this situation. The Bulls are also 16-6 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses since the start of last season and 26-9 ATS after a loss by six points or less under Thibodeau. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing record. Take the points as the Bulls are in excellent position to hand Indiana its first loss of the season.

6* NBA Bailout on Trail Blazers -121
The Key: This is a tough, tough spot for Houston, which spent a lot of energy trying to get back in the game last night in L.A. Then, it had to make the long flight up to Portland and will be up against a team that has had two full days to rest up and prepare. The Blazers defeated the reigning Western Conference champs in their last game so they will be lacking no confidence. They'll also be lacking no motivation as they were embarrassed with an 18-point loss the last time Houston visited. The Rockets struggled on the road last season, and that has continued this season. They were down by 19 in Utah in their first road game before rallying and then crushed in their second road game against the Clippers last night. The Rockets are 10-25 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread since the start of the 2011-12 season. They are also 9-23 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses during the same time frame. Take Portland.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator (ESPN2) on Ohio +4
The Key: Ohio will want this game just a little bit more as it currently trails Buffalo in the MAC East standings. I'll gladly take the points as the Bobcats are 3-1 in the last four meetings with the loss coming by only one point the last time it visited Buffalo. Both teams are coming off a bye, but Ohio has been the better post-bye investment. It is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games following a bye week while Buffalo is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a bye. In addition, the Bulls are 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Quinn when up against teams with a win percentage of 60-75%. Stunningly, they have lost these contests by an average score of 36.2 to 8.0. Buffalo is 0-8 ATS the last three seasons after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. It has lost by an average score of 39.0 to 18.3 in this situation. The Bulls are also 0-5 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. We'll take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Bears +11
The Key: The Bears are missing some key pieces but an extra week of preparation gives them an excellent opportunity to give the Packers a game. You want to take underdogs or pickems that carry a win percentage of 51-60% following an upset loss on the road as doing so has produced a 30-9 ATS mark since 1983. You also want to fade favorites of 10.5 points or more that carry a win percentage of 60-75% if they have covered the spread in at least two of their last three games as doing so has produced a 72-36 ATS mark since 1983. The Chicago defense has struggled, giving up 6.4 yards per play. However, odds makers have consistently overvalued the Packers at home against such defenses. In fact, Green Bay is just 2-10 ATS in home games versus teams that allow 6.0 yards or more per play since 1992. The Packers have won these games but only by an average score of 27.8 to 24.6. Green Bay has dominated the Bears in recent years, but winning by this big of a margin has been rare. Consider that Chicago has won or lost by fewer than 11 points in 13 of the last 17 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavaliers -2
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, look for the Cavs to hand Minnesota its first loss of the season. The Cavs beat the Brooklyn at home in their first game of the season so they have already proven they can beat a more talented team than they'll see tonight on their home floor. Plus, they have had an extra day to rest their legs and game plan for the Timberwolves. Minnesota, on the other hand, just pulled off an upset win at Madison Square Garden yesterday so it has a quick turnaround. The Timberwolves are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a win and 7-18 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 27-12 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by 9+ points per game since 1996. The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these teams. Lay the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Texans +2.5
The Key: The Colts upset Denver last time out. However, you want to fade road teams that are off an upset win at home if they have a winning record on the season. Doing so has produced a 102-52 ATS mark since 1983, and this system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Most of the times teams come out of their bye week better than they were when they went in, but I don't believe that will be the case for Indy, simply because it won't have leading receiver Reggie Wayne on the field. With one less weapon to worry about, Houston's suffocating defense, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL overall and No. 1 against the pass, will really be able to swarm the Colts. The season hasn't gone as planned for the Texans, but they are clearly better than their record looks. They played the 8-0 Chiefs to a 1-point game on the road last time out. They also took the 7-1 Seahawks to OT. If they find a way to win those games, they're sitting at 4-3. I also can't fail to mention how valuable home field has been in this series. The home team is 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 12.8 points. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Magic +6.5
The Key: After a thrilling 1-point win over the reigning NBA champs, a game against the lowly Orlando Magic isn't going to get Brooklyn's juices flowing. Expect the Nets to come out flat here. While beating the Heat is certainly something to brag about, we can't forget that Brooklyn lost its only other road game of the season in Cleveland. We also can't forget that this team has a lot of new pieces, which likely means inconsistency early in the season. Brooklyn swept the Magic last season so Orlando will be lacking no motivation. The Nets are a soft 26-44 ATS after a cover since the 2011 season, and, zooming in, they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Magic are off to a 3-0 ATS start, and I expect them to pick up another cover.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Jets +6.5
The Key: Every time the Jets have got knocked down this season, they have responded the following week. They are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS following a loss this season, and I expect them to respond once again Sunday. You want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that trailed in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half when they're matched up against an opponent that scored 25 points or more in three straight games. That's because doing so has produced a 28-8 ATS mark since 1983. Teams fitting this system have been underdogs of 6.8 points on average but have lost by only 1.2 points on average. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last five seasons. The Jets have been tremendous defensively, ranking 6th in the league in total defense with 315.0 ypg allowed. The Saints are one of the top offensive teams in the league, but I don't see them hitting on all cylinders on the road in an outdoor venue against this defense. New Orleans has lost or won by less than 6.5 points in 5 of its last 6 and 20 of its last 25 road games. Take the points.

6* NFL Situational Annihilator on Titans -3
The Key: Situationally speaking, this is a great spot for Tennessee and a bad spot for St. Louis. The Rams put everything they had into Monday's game against Seattle, and they came up short. That loss makes it very difficult for them to be ready to go here on just 5 days' rest. Tennessee, on the other hand, hasn't played since Oct. 20 so it has a huge edge in terms of health and preparation. You want to take road favorites when they are playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as doing so has produced a 36-13 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. These teams have won by an average of 10.3 points. You also want to take road favorites after 2 or more consecutive losses if they carry a win percentage of 40-49% and are matched up against a losing team. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS mark since 1983. These teams have been favored by 3.1 points on average and has won by 9.8 points on average. This system is a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 10 seasons. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +6
The Key: Right away, one has to like the fact that home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that won 45-55% of their games last season are 40-12 ATS since 1996. This system has already produced a 2-0 ATS record this season. Houston is 2-0, but now it goes out on the road for the first time. The Rockets were a dismal 16-25 on the road last season, and they're visiting a team tonight that was 30-11 at home last season. Last season, the Rockets were only 4-14 ATS in road games versus teams that had a losing record, and they lost these games by 1.0 point on average. The Jazz are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Rockets are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Under the Radar Blowout on Florida Atlantic -4
The Key: 2-6 FAU is laying points against 6-2 Tulane? Odds makers are clearly begging the public to ride the Green Wave, but I'm not going down with that ship. Tulane has rattled off four consecutive upset victories, and it is still catching points against a team that has lost four of its last five games? Clearly, the books are not sold on Tulane. Part of the reason is because the Green Wave haven't been on the road since Sept. 28, and they are just 2-12 in their last 14 road games. But more so, the books are sold on FAU in this spot. The Owls are 7-0 ATS since the beginning of last season after two or more consecutive losses. They are 8-0 ATS since the start of last season following a road loss. In addition, the Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after being held to less than 20 points in their previous game. With the exception of last week's loss at Auburn, FAU has been extremely competitive in its last six games. It crushed USF, took MTSU to OT, nearly upset 6-2 Rice on the road, beat UAB by double-digits and played Marshall to a 1-point game. I think the Owls are ready to break out in a big way. Lay the points.

*I'm aware of the resignation of Carl Pelini and Pete Rekstis. FAU will still be a 6* play. Clearly odds makers don't feel the absence of the aforementioned will be a factor considering the line opened at -3 and has been re-released at -2.5*

7* Big Ten Game of the Month on Indiana -9.5
The Key: If Indiana hopes to punch a bowl ticket, this is a game it must have. Back home following back-to-back losses on the road and having had an extra week to prepare, I fully expect the Hoosiers to roll here. We find Minnesota in a big letdown spot as it became bowl eligible last week with an upset win over Nebraska. Satisfied by their accomplishment, the Golden Gophers will come out flat. You want to play against road underdogs that check in off a home win over a conference foe when they are matched up against an opponent that has allowed 31 points or more in two straight defeats to conference rivals. That's because doing so has produced a 27-5 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this system have lost by 15.9 points on average. Also, this system is 6-0 ATS the last three seasons. Indiana is 6-0 ATS all-time in home games under coach Kevin Wilson after one or more consecutive losses against the spread. The Hoosiers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team with a winning road record. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with a 21.8-point average margin of victory. Lay the points.

6* ACC Game of the Week on Syracuse -3
The Key: Syracuse hasn't stepped on the field since Oct. 19 when it was brutally embarrassed by Georgia Tech to the tune of 56-0. The sour taste of that defeat assures us the Orange will be motivated. The fact they enter off a bye assures us they will be prepared. The Demon Deacons gave Miami all it wanted and more last week, but that was a good spot for them as Miami was clearly looking ahead to this week's matchup with Florida State. By and large, Wake hasn't been nearly as formidable on the road. It just 1-5 in its last six road games overall and 1-8 in its last nine conference road games, including 0-4 in the last four. The Orange are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss, 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week. Lay the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon State -3
The Key: USC has been an awful investment on the road. In fact, the Trojans are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games. They are also on a 0-6 ATS slide in Pac-12 road contests and a 0-7 ATS slide in road games after playing a game at home. Additionally, USC is on a 0-7 ATS skid in all games following any home win and is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. The Trojans have also had their problems at Oregon State. They've lost four of their last five trips there, including each of their last three, and are 0-5 ATS in these games. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards -9.5
The Key: Riding high off a shocking with over Miami, Philadelphia is prime for a letdown. Washington, meanwhile, will be extremely hungry after dropping its opener at Detroit. And, the fact it lost by double-digits the last time it hosted the 76ers adds fuel to the fire. Everything went right for the 76ers against the Heat. They raced out to a 19-0 lead, shot the lights out (53.7%) and benefited from 19 Miami turnovers. Additionally, they caught Miami at just the right as it was coming off a big win over Chicago and looking ahead to tonight's game against Brooklyn. It all goes south for Philly here against a hungry Washington squad. The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. The Wizards are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Bobcats +3
The Key: Cleveland's upset win over Brooklyn makes it a dead fade tonight. Consider that fading any team off an upset win in the first six games of the season, provided that team closed out last season with five or more consecutive losses, has produced a 30-8 ATS mark since 1996. In addition, the Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Bobcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Charlotte lost by 2 and won by 7 in its two home games against the Cavs last season so I like our chances catching points here.

6* NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on Clippers -6.5
The Key: After laying an egg in Tuesday's opener, I expect the Clippers to be very focused and determined tonight. Historically speaking, this is a great spot for L.A. Favorites in the first six games of the season that check in off an upset loss as a road favorite (they were the designated road team in their opener) are 28-7 ATS since 1996 if they were a playoff team the previous season and lost four or more of their last five games. Teams fitting these specs have been favored by 6.7 points on average and have won 11.2 points on average. This awesome early season system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons. The Clippers have had a day to gear up for this matchup while the Warriors played at home last night and then had to make the trip south. The Warriors won three of last season's four meetings, which provides the Clippers with added motivation tonight. Lay the points.

6* National TV Annihilator on Washington State +11.5
The Key: Washington State has been a nice investment following defeat. In fact, it is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss and 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a loss of more than 20 points. The Cougars were outrushed by a massive 381 yards by Oregon last game, but they are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Mike Leach after being outrushed by 125 or more yards. The ASU offense has been dominant in back-to-back blowout victories, but teams headed up by coach Todd Graham are 0-7 ATS all-time in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in two consecutive games. ASU won last season's meeting 46-7, and that can't be sitting well with the Cougars. Washington State has home field on its side this time around, and that has been worth a lot as the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Cougars have won or lost by 10 points or less in nine of their last 10 home meetings with Arizona State. Washington State was a 12-point dog the last time it hosted the Sun Devils, and it won outright by 10 points. Take the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Dolphins +3
The Key: Miami has lost four in a row since a 3-0 start. However, the two home losses during this stretch came by just three and two points. The Bengals are coming off a blowout win at home over the Jets, but they haven't been the same team on the road where they are 2-2 and haven't won by more than three points. Miami has had Cincy's number, going 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings, including 2-0 SU and ATS in the last two. The Dolphins won last season's meetings in Cincinnati 17-13. The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games while the Bengals are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games. Also, you want to fade road teams that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they're a good team (60-75% win pct) playing a team with a losing record. That's because doing so has produced a 71-34 ATS record since 1983. Take the points.

6* World Series Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Cardinals +108
The Key: What have the Cardinals done with their back against the wall you ask? They have gone 7-0 when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 7.1 to 3.7. Wacha has shown no signs of coming back down to earth, going 5-0 in his last five starts while allowing only three total runs during this stretch. Lacky hasn't been nearly as sharp. He's given up 3 runs or more in seven of his last nine starts. Wacha outdueled Lackey at Fenway in Game 2, and I expect the same result tonight.

7* NCAAF National TV Annihilator on Memphis +3
The Key: Memphis is a better team than its 1-5 record leads you to believe. The Tigers played Middle Tennessee State to a two-point game on the road, and they played 19th-ranked Central Florida to a seven-point game at home. That game was tied with two minutes remaining. Memphis could just as easily be 3-3 right now with a couple pretty nice wins under its belt. At home and motivated by a 0-3 conference start, I love Memphis' chances of pulling off the upset. The Tigers are on a 7-0 ATS run when checking into a contest off three straight losses to conference opponents. The Bearcats haven't been the same team on the road where they are 1-2 (0-3 ATS) with a loss to lowly South Florida. They rolled UConn last time out, but they are on a 0-6 ATS slide following a win by 21 or more points. They are also on a 0-6 ATS skid after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game. Take the points.